Fact or Fiction: A 9-2 Samford makes playoffs with wins over Tenn State & EKU

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Let's play this game with non-MEAC teams, and see what people say. Their only losses are to ranked Eastern Illinois and FBS Georgia Tech. Is this a playoff team?

[OL FU]

Let's play this game with non-MEAC teams, and see what people say. Their only losses are to ranked Eastern Illinois and FBS Georgia Tech. Is this a playoff team?

I don't have that good of an imagination. xeyebrowx

[89Hen]

That makes them 8-2 (win over West Alabama) with one of those wins over first year Presby. Given the OVC's abysmal playoff record... no.

[McNeese_beat]

That makes them 8-2 (win over West Alabama) with one of those wins over first year Presby. Given the OVC's abysmal playoff record... no.

The question for Samford and the MEACs is this: Where are the quality wins? If you are a assuming a loss to the top team in the conference (whether it's EIU in the OVC or SCSU in the MEAC) than that yields said bubble team no other quality win.

By comparison, let's take the Southland. Let's assume McNeese runs the table for the sake of the scenario. Sam Houston loses to OSU this week and finishes second to McNeese, going 8-3. Nicholls loses to McNeese and Sam and goes 8-3. Well, now Sam Houston has a quality win over Nicholls and that, to me, moves them up in the pecking order (Nicholls had a quality win over I-A Rice, although Rice is not good this year) despite two non-D-I wins for Sam Houston.

The difference is, the conference depth gives stronger leagues quality win opportunities.

Here's another question. Let's say McNeese beats South Dakota and SD ends up going 9-2 and being a high seed in the D-II playoffs. Does the committee consider that a quality win or is it lumped in as simply a D-II game?

[GannonFan]

I don't see Samford getting in in that scenario unless they are searching for teams to fill out the brackets - playing a DII and a bad FCS team along with the payday at GaTech just doesn't cut it when the conference schedule does not offer chances for big wins.

[TTUEagles]

Samford beat a DII team in the closing minutes. This same D II team rallied late to beat an NAIA school in only its 3rd year of playing football. No one knows how good Samford is yet. I don't think SEMO was expecting much this year, either. If someone does go 9-2 in the OVC, I think they do deserve serious recognition for the playoffs. 8-3? No way.

[mcveyrl]

I think I see DelSt. getting in over them in that scenario (which is where I think you were going in another thread)

[ngineer]

Quality wins over FCS opposition is critical. "Moral victories" aka competitive losses to FBS schools don't cut it.

[TexasTerror]

Guys...Presbyterian does not count as a Div I win this year. With West Alabama not going, Samford would be 7-2 under this formula...so they would be eligible per Div I wins...

Also -- if SHSU loses to OKST and finishes second to McN, SHSU would not be in the playoffs as they would be 8-3 with two games against sub-Div I teams meaning they would really be 6-3...that doesn't make the cut.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Guys...Presbyterian does not count as a Div I win this year. With West Alabama not going, Samford would be 7-2 under this formula...so they would be eligible per Div I wins...

Also -- if SHSU loses to OKST and finishes second to McN, SHSU would not be in the playoffs as they would be 8-3 with two games against sub-Div I teams meaning they would really be 6-3...that doesn't make the cut.

Excellent points both. That Delaware State 9-2 is looking better and better, huh? Even a Hampton 9-2 with all D-I wins is looking pretty good...

Which illustrates another point: where are these at-larges going to come from? SHSU needs to go 9-2 to merely qualify for the playoffs, as does Samford. Here are two teams if they go 8-3 are sitting at home.

[TexasTerror]

Which illustrates another point: where are these at-larges going to come from? SHSU needs to go 9-2 to merely qualify for the playoffs, as does Samford. Here are two teams if they go 8-3 are sitting at home.

The whole Southland will pretty much be eliminated in the next two, three weeks if they are not already from qualifying for the playoffs. We'll be stuck with our auto-bid. Unfortunately, this is how it has been but when schools schedule two or three games against FBS opponents, it's going to be tough. Then, we got to get out of this playing Div II thing as well, that's no good.

The SLC openly welcomes the SWAC schools to home-and-homes once the mandate is gone. These are games that are regionally close by and really, for the most part, good chances at wins...

[HensRock]

Why doesn't PC count as a Div-I win? They are Div-I this year, right?

[813Jag]

The way TSU turns the ball over, it'll be hard for them to win many close games.

[appfan2008]

i would not expect anymore than 1 team getting in from the ovc... if you never win in the playoffs... well that is what happens

[R.A.]

Lehigh Football Nation & TexasTerror you all are seeing something that I've been suggesting all along... the MEAC isn't as weak as people may assume.

The way I set up my inital thread, I probably should have included that each of the possible MEAC 9-2 teams-- SCSU, Hampton, and Del State, will all be FCS wins. So that's 9 FCS wins... and each of those three teams will include wins over possibly ranked opponents.

Another reason why I was so upset over DSU dropping out of the major polls because they lost to FBS Kent State... because that would set up a Top 25 match up between DSU & Hampton this weekend...

[TexasTerror]

Why doesn't PC count as a Div-I win? They are Div-I this year, right?

This is their transitional year...Central Arkansas counted as a Div II last year as did Winston Salem State...

[Maroons]

The fact that the OVC hasn't won a playoff game since 1998 doesn't seem to be that big a factor for the selection committee. Two teams went last season despite a mediocre OVC performance and two went 4 or so years ago. The committee seems to look more at the overall records. The GPI seems to be ignored as well.

Do I think it's right? Not really. It's just how it seems to be. I think a 9-2 Samford team would deserve consideration and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they got in.

[JaxStateManager]

xcoffeex I honestly don't see Samford going 9-2 in the first place. However, if they were to do so, I doubt that they would make it as an at large team.

[EKU05]

The fact that the OVC hasn't won a playoff game since 1998 doesn't seem to be that big a factor for the selection committee. Two teams went last season despite a mediocre OVC performance and two went 4 or so years ago. The committee seems to look more at the overall records. The GPI seems to be ignored as well.

Do I think it's right? Not really. It's just how it seems to be. I think a 9-2 Samford team would deserve consideration and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they got in.


I think what you meant to say was...

It won't matter after this weekend in Richmond ;)

No seriously, I agree with Maroons. I do think a 9-2 OVC team gets in..particularly if one of the losses was to a BCS conference team.