Sagarin Week #4 FCS Rankings

[DetroitFlyer]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm



1. Northern Iowa
2. Southern Illinois
3. Massachusetts
4. Appalachian State
5. Youngstown State
6. Delaware
7. Eastern Washington
8. North Dakota State
9. Montana
10. McNeese State
11. James Madison
12. Villanova
13. UC Davis
14. Hofstra
15. New Hampshire
16. Richmond
17. Western Illinois
18. Wofford
19. South Dakota State
20. Montana State
21. Lehigh
22. Yale
23. Eastern Kentucky
24. Citadel
25. Holy Cross
26. Harvard
27. Cal Poly-SLO
28. Elon
29. Northern Arizona
30. Texas State
31. Illinois State
32. Furman
33. Princeton
34. Sam Houston State
35. SC State
36. Portland State
37. Colgate
38. Grambling
39. William & Mary
40. Maine
41. San Diego
42. Northeastern
43. Georgia Southern
44. Lafayette
45. Missouri State
46. Eastern Illinois
47. Alabama A&M
48. Towson
49. Nicholls State
50. Jacksonville State
51. Stephen F. Austin
52. Drake
53. Brown
54. Hampton
55. Pennsylvania
56. Southern University
57. Alabama State
58. Chattanooga
59. Idaho State
60. Dayton
61. Central Arkansas
62. Western Carolina
63. Albany (NY)
64. Northwestern State
65. Delaware State
66. Southern Utah
67. Sacramento State
68. Gardner-Webb
69. Cornell
70. SE Louisiana
71. Stony Brook
72. Weber State
73. Dartmouth
74. Rhode Island
75. Samford
76. Fordham
77. Coastal Carolina
78. Tennessee State
79. Liberty
80. Tennessee Tech
81. Norfolk State
82. Charleston Southern
83. Jackson State
84. Florida A&M
85. Northern Colorado
86. Bethune-Cookman
87. Winston-Salem State
88. SE Missouri State
89. Columbia
90. Bucknell
91. Robert Morris
92. Central Connecticut
93. Duquesne
94. Tennessee-Martin
95. Ark.-Pine Bluff
96. Morgan State
97. VMI
98. Prairie View A&M
99. Monmouth-NJ
100. Howard
101. Austin Peay
102. Georgetown
103. Miss. Valley State
104. Alcorn State
105. Murray State
106. Morehead State
107. Iona
108. Presbyterian
109. Davidson
110. Wagner
111. Indiana State
112. Jacksonville
113. Texas Southern
114. Sacred Heart
115. Marist
116. NC Central
117. St. Francis-Pa.
118. NC A&T
119. Valparaiso
120. Butler
121. Savannah State
122. La Salle

[89Hen]

3. Massachusetts
6. Delaware
11. James Madison
12. Villanova
14. Hofstra
15. New Hampshire
16. Richmond
Maybe I do like Sagarin after all. :p

[OL FU]

Maybe I do like Sagarin after all. :p

Nothing new here, Move along, Typical A-10 biasxnodx

[AZGrizFan]

Maybe I do like Sagarin after all. :p

They have UNC @ #85, and I'm not sure there's a team BELOW them on the list they could beat, let alone a team ABOVE them. xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[citdog]

not bad

[appfan2008]

why in the world is wofford #18?

kinda swirly but that is typical for sagarin

[lucchesicourt]

Why is UC Davis #13? I think a little high considering our losses.

[89Hen]

Nothing new here, Move along, Typical A-10 biasxnodx
BTW, this pretty much supports my circular reasoning arguement... these computer models self-implode, but the creators of them will deny it to the grave. xnodx xsmhx

[Anovafan]

Nothing new here, Move along, Typical A-10 biasxnodx

His computer bias is to SOS if anything. I think the top 10 is pretty good right now. After that, I think you could throw 11-30 in a bag and come up with a top 25.

[walliver]

why in the world is wofford #18?

kinda swirly but that is typical for sagarin

I thought playing Charleston Southern would have helped our strength of schedule. I guess playing NC State and Georgetown (KY) must have lowered our SOS.

[OldAggieAlum]

Why is UC Davis #13? I think a little high considering our losses.

I think Sagarin does not include DII games in the calculation.

[Boogs]

Congrats to San Diego (Gold medal), Drake (Silver) and Dayton (Bronze) in the special ed division of FCS for this week!:

41. San Diego
52. Drake
60. Dayton
63. Albany (NY)
71. *-Stony Brook
91. Robert Morris
92. Central Connecticut
93. Duquesne
99. Monmouth-NJ
106. Morehead State
107. Iona
109. Davidson
110. Wagner
112. Jacksonville
114. Sacred Heart
115. Marist
117. St. Francis-Pa.
119. Valparaiso
120. Butler
122. La Salle

*-Probably should not be included.

Clearly the lack of athletic scholarships and equivalencies (highly correlated with placing schools in suitable categories -- FCS, D2 and D3) says these schools don't belong in FCS. Only a legalistic mindset/red tape/that's the way we've always done it mentality keeps them in.

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin's numbers are still using a preseason ranking component until that's eliminated in a couple weeks it's not even really a computer ranking.

Once we're past that and actually working with the computer ranking the next thing you need to understand is what ranking you're actually looking at because Sagarin/USA Today publish 3 seperate rankings.

The rankings posted here are a 50/50 composite of his BCS and Predictor numbers. The BCS ranking has no margin of victory component but the Predictor numbers do. If you're PC use the BCS number if you're interested in who the computer actually thinks is better use the Predictor number. Why USA today publishes them on this compromised composite basis I have no idea, it's the worst of all worlds.

[furman94]

FU at 32 WTF?? We lost to an underrated Hofstra and a #13 AP Ranked Clemson Team. We are 1-2 bue we arent that bad!

[Cap'n Cat]

Maybe I do like Sagarin after all. :p



Me, too.

1. Northern Iowa
2. Southern Illinois
5. Youngstown State
8. North Dakota State
17. Western Illinois
19. South Dakota State

[JohnStOnge]

BTW, this pretty much supports my circular reasoning arguement... these computer models self-implode, but the creators of them will deny it to the grave. xnodx xsmhx

Sigh. They work very well. They are very good at predicting outcomes. About as good as you're going to get over a large number of games. Some people may be able to pick a handful of games that they have an angle on and do better. But if you attempt to pick every game played...both in terms of who's going to win and in terms of what the margin is going to be...you're probably not going to do as well as one of the better power rating systems do.

[JohnStOnge]

Sagarin's numbers are still using a preseason ranking component until that's eliminated in a couple weeks it's not even really a computer ranking..

Well...it is a computer ranking. But it's biased right now in the sense that it's not entirely objective based on this year's results. It's "bayesian," which is a dirty word to me. But it still does pretty well.

[UAalum72]

100. Howard
101. Austin Peay
102. Georgetown
103. Miss. Valley State
104. Alcorn State
105. Murray State
111. Indiana State
113. Texas Southern
118. NC A&T
121. Savannah State

Clearly scholarships/equivalencies aren't helping these guys, only a frozen mindset thinks they're automatically better than teams ranked fifty or more spots ahead of them. Right, Token-boy?

[GolfingGriz]

I guess Montana will have to pull off the upset October 6 at Wa-Griz.xthumbsupx

[Pauly LB]

#121 might be kind of high for Savannah State

[Tod]

Me, too.

1. Northern Iowa
2. Southern Illinois
5. Youngstown State
8. North Dakota State
17. Western Illinois
19. South Dakota State

Hell, not as impressive as the CAA or Gateway, but I'll take it!


7. Eastern Washington
9. Montana
20. Montana State
29. Northern Arizona
36. Portland State

Hey, wait a minute! Who is this "Eastern Washington"? xmadx xmadx xmadx :D ;)

[ursus arctos horribilis]

100. Howard
101. Austin Peay
102. Georgetown
103. Miss. Valley State
104. Alcorn State
105. Murray State
111. Indiana State
113. Texas Southern
118. NC A&T
121. Savannah State

Clearly scholarships/equivalencies aren't helping these guys, only a frozen mindset thinks they're automatically better than teams ranked fifty or more spots ahead of them. Right, Token-boy?

I have nothing against the schools that have less than the full compliment of schollies. I thought Albany was a good team and It looks like San Diego is another in that group along with Drake. The thing that gets me is that you think you deserve inclusion by comparing against the worst teams in the FCS. Instead of comparing yourselves to the lesser performing schools in the FCS, the real question to ask yourself is this. How good and worthy would Albany or San Diego be if they did offer the additional scholarships? An additional 20-30 scholarships for either of these teams would in my mind make them more than worthy of being in the playoff field as they would then be on par to compete with the top 25 teams in the nation. Below is the composite rankings of the full scholarship schools (all of them) vs. the partial scholarship ship schools as listed in this thread.

Full scholarship-56th
Partial scholarship-96th

Leaving that aside the best of the bunch of the non schollies comes in at 41. My question is simply this-how can it be justified to let a team that low into the discussion?

[Boogs]

100. Howard
101. Austin Peay
102. Georgetown
103. Miss. Valley State
104. Alcorn State
105. Murray State
111. Indiana State
113. Texas Southern
118. NC A&T
121. Savannah State

Clearly scholarships/equivalencies aren't helping these guys, only a frozen mindset thinks they're automatically better than teams ranked fifty or more spots ahead of them. Right, Token-boy?

Do an average rank of all of the teams that are not mid-major by Don Hansen's definition.

Repeat the process again for the 19 mid-major programs.

The mid-majors have a chronic average that is statistically significant below their major counterparts. xcoffeex

Look up the definition of statistically significant, Mr. Oh-it-must-be-rooted-in-a-desire-to-segregate-and-it's-certainly-not-because-I-shot-myself-in-the-foot-as-the-reason-why-I-have-problems-with-personal-anger.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Do an average rank of all of the teams that are not mid-major by Don Hansen's definition.

Repeat the process again for the 19 mid-major programs.

The mid-majors have a chronic average that is statistically significant below their major counterparts. xcoffeex

Look up the definition of statistically significant, Mr. Oh-it-must-be-rooted-in-a-desire-to-segregate-and-it's-certainly-not-because-I-shot-myself-in-the-foot-as-the-reason-why-I-have-problems-with-personal-anger.

I just did that.

[Boogs]

I just did that.

Delays in posting response time. Sorry.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Delays in posting response time. Sorry.

I'm with ya.

[Boogs]

I'm against the mid-majors being classified as FCS.

I say reform the criteria. It won't take much if you look at one rule and abolish the automatic D1 basketball rule.

If a school has D1 basketball and 90+ players dressed on your roster you get to be FCS. Otherwise D2 is your classification.

How hard can it be to have 90+ players dressed at the CAA level? Is this 90 player rule accurate?

That's how you get rid of St. Peter's-like situations.

There's exceptions for having ice hockey that does not automatically make you D1 in all sports, why not for schools with D1 basketball with an on-the-cheap football program? D1 basketball all by itself is a horrible rule. Any school can have a full-scholarship D1 basketball team. The D1 basketball rule was ridiculous all by itself from the start.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

And another thread is successfully hijacked it appears. I apologize to the rest for my contribution.

[McNeese75]

Where is Dr. DP whatever when you need him???? xlolx

[Boogs]

And another thread is successfully hijacked it appears. I apologize to the rest for my contribution.

Sorry. Didn't realize what I did.

[OL FU]

BTW, this pretty much supports my circular reasoning arguement... these computer models self-implode, but the creators of them will deny it to the grave. xnodx xsmhx

No argument from mexbowx

[OL FU]

His computer bias is to SOS if anything. I think the top 10 is pretty good right now. After that, I think you could throw 11-30 in a bag and come up with a top 25.

And if you start with numbers that are too high for a conference, then as 89 pointed out, the entire conference is incorrectly and continually rated too highxrolleyesx

[th0m]

Check out Hampton. WOW!

[UAalum72]

Look up the definition of statistically significant, Mr. Oh-it-must-be-rooted-in-a-desire-to-segregate-and-it's-certainly-not-because-I-shot-myself-in-the-foot-as-the-reason-why-I-have-problems-with-personal-anger.
Who can't let go, Token-boy? I'll stand by what I said. If you don't like it, go whining to the moderator to get me banned. That's what ralph or Mr. C would have threatened.

You're not going to change the NCAA classifications, so get over it. If there's value to winning a conference, all conference champions should get in. If there isn't value to it, do away with ALL auto-bids.

[89Hen]

Sigh. They work very well. They are very good at predicting outcomes. About as good as you're going to get over a large number of games. Some people may be able to pick a handful of games that they have an angle on and do better. But if you attempt to pick every game played...both in terms of who's going to win and in terms of what the margin is going to be...you're probably not going to do as well as one of the better power rating systems do.
Hey, where were you on the CAA prediction thread? I was spot on with my point margins last week.

The ONLY reason the computers can MAYBE perform better (we still have never done our challenge) over EVERY game is that humans don't know every single team. The fact that I (and others) could NAIL the CAA games tells me that the factors a human can take into account will help out perform the computers many times. xnodx

[mcveyrl]

I guess Montana will have to pull off the upset October 6 at Wa-Griz.xthumbsupx

I actually think that the home team gets a few spots extra, so Montana would be slightly favored in that game according to Sagarin.

However, I'm too lazy to look this up and I might be wrong.

[Boogs]

Who can't let go, Token-boy? I'll stand by what I said. If you don't like it, go whining to the moderator to get me banned. That's what ralph or Mr. C would have threatened.

Who is this Ralph person everyone keeps mentioning?

What's the banning issue all about?


You're not going to change the NCAA classifications, so get over it.

Dr. King -- I have a dream!

My grass roots message posting is just as effective as anyone's posting.


If there's value to winning a conference, all conference champions should get in. If there isn't value to it, do away with ALL auto-bids.

You obviously flunked math and logic in school.

If the sh-tt-est teams form their own conference (NEC/PFL/MAAC) that said conference or conferences would have no value in getting an automatic bid.

If teams were randomly assigned to conferences, the NEC/PFL/MAAC teams would be in the basement virtually every year in each of their assigned conferences. And if that scenario played out each and every year, those teams would have dropped the sport because of chronic safety issues -- getting battered every week instead once or twice a year at the beginning of the year.

There would be a chronic vicious cycle of declining fan and player interest and the NEC/PFL/MAAC teams would quickly decline because of the hopelessness of always losing with just 30 scholarships/equivalencies. That decline would not occur and rebound in just the first 1/3 of the season like we have today but in the entire regular season without a rebound.

I'm tellin' ya, UAalum72, you don't speak for the good of the whole. You have your own agenda. You are what Ross Perot calls the special interest groups. You definitely aren't President Abraham Lincoln material.

[citdog]

You definitely aren't President Abraham Lincoln material.

THANK GOD! One tyrant who waged an illegal war of coersion and subjugation against my people was PLENTY!

[rmutv]

If a school has D1 basketball and 90+ players dressed on your roster you get to be FCS. Otherwise D2 is your classification.

How hard can it be to have 90+ players dressed at the CAA level? Is this 90 player rule accurate?



"Mid-Major" Robert Morris has 90+ players on their football roster. Monmouth does as well. Many of the NEC and PFL teams do. St. Peter's was not the norm.

[Boogs]

"Mid-Major" Robert Morris has 90+ players on their football roster. Monmouth does as well. Many of the NEC and PFL teams do. St. Peter's was not the norm.

We are making progress. Keep posting!

[Boogs]

THANK GOD! One tyrant who waged an illegal war of coersion and subjugation against my people was PLENTY!

Yee haa!

Go South Go!

I still watch the Dukes of Hazzard.

[rmutv]

We are making progress. Keep posting!

If you want the "mid-major" tag just to disappear, go and annoy the members of the press that use it. The schools involved just use it as a means to pump up their program. If it's not there, they don't use it.