AGS Playoff Bracket Challenge - After Semifinals, Fall 2021

[Preferred Walk-On]

With one game remaining, and it's a big one, Professor Chaos has taken the lead. He also had both teams in his championship matchup. Nice work, Professor.

The semifinal week awards are as follows:
High Score: footballer23
Best Score Prediction: bonarae
Best Margin Prediction: bonarae, Daytripper, footballer23, grizband, HootyHoo, katss07, KsawOwls, ming01, OhioHen

When I get a chance, I will post all the players with a predicted National Championship team still alive. However, our winner will surely come down to score and margin predictions, as nobody picked Montana State to win the championship (bulletin board material, I guess). That said, it will be quite difficult for anyone to catch the Professor, but I am not going to do the math to determine whether or not it is possible (somebody else can do this, if they want).

On to Frisco...



Player
Semifinals
Total
# Correct


Professor Chaos
92
447
18


caribbeanhen
84
444
17


ElCid
68
419
19


Catbooster
92
412
18


Chalupa Batman
88
410
17


OhioHen
84
406
18


Massey
68
403
18


footballer23
116
400
15


wapiti
100
399
17


dewey
76
398
18


MSUBobcat
92
393
17


putter
40
393
17


ST_Lawson
68
391
17


Pitz
48
384
16


Katfan
84
381
17


MSUWineGuy
68
381
16


Roamingriz
80
378
16


taper
72
375
17


mvfcfan
88
373
16


THE DANIMAL
80
372
15


Carolina010
68
370
16


ming01
88
367
12


MR. CHICKEN
76
366
16


bobcathpdevil56
84
365
16


Karl Havoc
48
364
15


HensRock
52
360
17


FCSbuff319
44
359
16


Go Lehigh TU owl
68
359
14


Bisonator
68
358
16


Griz23
64
350
15


atthewbon
64
349
17


Preferred Walk-On
52
348
16


Prime Power
48
348
17


CockyGeek
64
347
16


Hambone
64
346
15


JacksFan40
60
345
15


POD Knows
56
344
15


mvemjsunpx
64
343
13


GoBlueHens83
64
342
13


BigBlueMU
56
340
14


crusader11
64
337
15


MSUDuo
48
330
14


TheValleyRaider
40
329
15


NOLA
24
326
14


grizband
88
320
13


Daytripper
88
310
13


RabidRabbit

308
14


bonarae
100
303
13


HootyHoo
56
302
13


JSUSoutherner
40
299
14


katss07
68
298
14


KsawOwls
64
294
12


MTfan4life
40
294
13


paward
60
277
12


Libertine
48
245
10


Puddin Tane
36
196
10


CenMEBlackBearFan

75
6


Mfergy4

74
6


Anthony215

45
4


bob12

0
0


dgtw

0
0


Drblankstare

0
0


Gangtackle11

0
0


McNeese75

0
0


NY Crusader 2010

0
0


PantherRob82

0
0


SpreadTheWord

0
0


TheKingpin28

0
0

[Preferred Walk-On]

Here are the remaining players that still have a potential national champion remaining. Broken down into two groups, but really does not matter, since all have picked North Dakota State. Again, will come down to score and margin predictions, with up to 50 pt available there. If North Dakota State loses, then caribbeanhen (did not have NDSU in championship game) has a chance to make up (3) points, but since the next closest players are 28 pt behind (and did not have NDSU in championship game) and 35 pt behind (but same pick as the Professor), it seems highly unlikely (dare I say impossible, given that the score predictions are all very similar) that anyone but caribbean has a chance. It appears to be a two-horse race.



National Champion Still Alive







Player
Total Points
Semifinalist 1
Semifinalist 2
Champion


Montana State v. North Dakota State







Professor Chaos
447
Montana State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Catbooster
412
Montana State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


footballer23
400
Montana State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


MSUBobcat
393
Montana State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


bobcathpdevil56
365
Montana State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Other v. North Dakota State







Chalupa Batman
410
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


OhioHen
406
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Massey
403
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


dewey
398
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


ST_Lawson
391
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


MSUWineGuy
381
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Roamingriz
378
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


taper
375
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


mvfcfan
373
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


ming01
367
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


HensRock
360
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Bisonator
358
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Griz23
350
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Preferred Walk-On
348
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


Prime Power
348
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


grizband
320
Sam Houston
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


JSUSoutherner
299
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
North Dakota State


MTfan4life
294
Villanova
North Dakota State
North Dakota State

[Catbooster]

I should have had faith and taken my Bobcats one more game. Given our performance on offense with the QB we were running at the time, I thought I was going too far as it was.

[caribbeanhen]

So your telling me if Montana State wins I still have a chance?

Well I’m telling you I have no chance... none

[Professor Chaos]

So your telling me if Montana State wins I still have a chance?

Well I’m telling you I have no chance... none
Better go get your Touchdown Tommy merch now! ;)

[caribbeanhen]

Better go get your Touchdown Tommy merch now! ;)

Haha, might have to work up a little song about Tommy two threat

[Preferred Walk-On]

Professor Chaos
North Dakota State 30
Montana State 16

caribbeanhen
Sam Houston 24
North Dakota State 20

If North Dakota State wins, Professor Chaos would automatically have 25 pt on caribbeanhen (by virtue of correct pick) and score prediction/margin of victory should be to the Professor's advantage as well. If Montana State wins, it would come down to score prediction and margin of victory. caribbeanhen would already have a slight advantage, as he already picked the winner to score more than North Dakota State, and would therefore have a score prediction and margin of victory edge. So, let's say Montana State wins by 1 pt, 21-20. caribbeanhen would get 25 pt for score prediction (within 3 pt) and 25 pt for margin of victory (again, within 3 pt) and will easily overtake the Professor. Let's say Montana State wins 54-24. caribbeanhen would pick up 0 pt for score prediction (35 off) and 0 pt for margin of victory (26 off) and the Professor would win. It basically comes down to does Montana State or North Dakota State win, with the only caveat being that it is not a high scoring blowout. I really don't see that (high-scoring blowout) scenario happening though. This is just crude math, but I think it pretty much rides on the winner of the game.

[caribbeanhen]

Thanks for that outstanding explanation Full Ride

Lets go Montana State!

[caribbeanhen]

Professor Chaos
North Dakota State 30
Montana State 16

caribbeanhen
Sam Houston 24
North Dakota State 20

If North Dakota State wins, Professor Chaos would automatically have 25 pt on caribbeanhen (by virtue of correct pick) and score prediction/margin of victory should be to the Professor's advantage as well. If Montana State wins, it would come down to score prediction and margin of victory. caribbeanhen would already have a slight advantage, as he already picked the winner to score more than North Dakota State, and would therefore have a score prediction and margin of victory edge. So, let's say Montana State wins by 1 pt, 21-20. caribbeanhen would get 25 pt for score prediction (within 3 pt) and 25 pt for margin of victory (again, within 3 pt) and will easily overtake the Professor. Let's say Montana State wins 54-24. caribbeanhen would pick up 0 pt for score prediction (35 off) and 0 pt for margin of victory (26 off) and the Professor would win. It basically comes down to does Montana State or North Dakota State win, with the only caveat being that it is not a high scoring blowout. I really don't see that (high-scoring blowout) scenario happening though. This is just crude math, but I think it pretty much rides on the winner of the game.

You know this is not the first time The Good Professor and I have had the pleasure to know one of these things is not like the other

Such a contrast in styles
Professor is a man of spreadsheets, mathematical equations and algorithms

I dont have a computer, use an abacus and stickmen for counting and can barely do basic math

Profesor is a statistician, the numbers are his native language

I don’t bother looking at the stats, not smart enough to interpret into anything useful

The Professor is an X’s and O’s guy
Cover 2, Zone read, Jack and Jill or is it Will

I’m a Jimmies and Joes guy because I can still see, just watchwatch games and don’t bother trying to hear them

Profesor is spit and polished, sugar and spice college stamped and everything nice, pair of Rockports, Gucci watch, pipe, fireplace with Christmas music and a light snow falling

Im rough around the edges, an unwashed pheasant (tyhh) earned my degree right here on AGS, flip flops, use beer for toothpaste and styling gel. Song lyrics dancing in my head and came on here to pan for laughs and how I got here I havent a clue

but here we are

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone on AGS

[Professor Chaos]

You know this is not the first time The Good Professor and I have had the pleasure to know one of these things is not like the other

Such a contrast in styles
Professor is a man of spreadsheets, mathematical equations and algorithms

I dont have a computer, use an abacus and stickmen for counting and can barely do basic math

Profesor is a statistician, the numbers are his native language

I don’t bother looking at the stats, not smart enough to interpret into anything useful

The Professor is an X’s and O’s guy
Cover 2, Zone read, Jack and Jill or is it Will

I’m a Jimmies and Joes guy because I can still see, just watchwatch games and don’t bother trying to hear them

Profesor is spit and polished, sugar and spice college stamped and everything nice, pair of Rockports, Gucci watch, pipe, fireplace with Christmas music and a light snow falling

Im rough around the edges, an unwashed pheasant (tyhh) earned my degree right here on AGS, flip flops, use beer for toothpaste and styling gel. Song lyrics dancing in my head and came on here to pan for laughs and how I got here I havent a clue

but here we are

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to everyone on AGS
IIRC that was in the playoff pick 'em in 2017 when it came down to who won the title between the Bison and the Dukes. I do like to look at stats but I go with my gut way more than I should. Not quite sure why I picked Montana St to come out of the top half of the bracket... I guess I figured SDSU was going to blow up the 4/5 quadrant and my gut told me they'd run out of gas in the semis. It was definitely a gut instinct to pick Montana St over SHSU in the quarters. I should try to remember what I ate the day I filled out that bracket because my gut was on the money (so far)!

And for what it's worth I wear gym shorts probably over 75% of the time since COVID started. :)