AGS Pick 5 Survival League - Week 12, Fall 2021

[Preferred Walk-On]

Last week everyone. Looks like we'll be deciding this via tiebreaker. Just as a reminder, the order of the tiebreaker is as follows:

1. # of elimination weeks (sum of elimination weeks)
2. # of correct picks
3. # of perfect weeks
4. least # of re-used teams

The competition is HensRock's to lose, but a pick or two slip-up could make for a very interesting finish.

Thanks to everyone that played, and special thanks to those that are finishing out the season. Learned a few things, and I will be posting a thread down the road to take suggestions on how to improve the game. Hope everyone enjoyed it, and best of luck in this final week.


MAKE WEEK 12 SURVIVAL PICKS HERE (https://forms.gle/Hx7bwt5joBK2114a6)

DEADLINE: THU, NOV 18 @ 5 PM ET

[Preferred Walk-On]

Once again, sincere thanks to CB!


This weeks games.

Thursday, November 18
Nicholls @ Southeastern Louisiana

Saturday, November 20
Butler @ Marist
Dartmouth @ Brown
Harvard @ Yale
Lafayette @ Lehigh
Georgetown @ Morgan State
Campbell @ Robert Morris
Duquesne @ Wagner
Saint Francis (PA) @ Central Connecticut State
Western Carolina @ VMI
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University
Fordham @ Colgate
San Diego @ Stetson
Columbia @ Cornell
Bryant @ Merrimack
Murray State @ Eastern Illinois
Holy Cross @ Bucknell
Indiana State @ Illinois State
Princeton @ Pennsylvania
Youngstown State @ Southern Illinois
Maine @ New Hampshire
Villanova @ Delaware
Albany @ Stony Brook
Furman @ Samford
Northwestern State @ McNeese
Gardner-Webb @ North Carolina A&T
Monmouth @ Kennesaw State
North Alabama @ Hampton
Drake @ Davidson
Mercer @ East Tennessee State
The Citadel @ Chattanooga
UT Martin @ Southeast Missouri
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian
Presbyterian @ St. Thomas (MN)
Morehead State @ Valparaiso
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama A&M
Montana State @ Montana
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky
Rhode Island @ Elon
Alcorn State @ Jackson State
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central
Western Illinois @ Northern Iowa
Towson @ James Madison
Texas Southern @ Alabama State
Tennessee Tech @ Austin Peay
Incarnate Word @ Houston Baptist
Northern Colorado @ Weber State
Idaho @ Idaho State
North Dakota @ South Dakota State
South Dakota @ North Dakota State
Florida A&M vs. Bethune-Cookman (in Orlando, FL)
Richmond @ William & Mary
Eastern Washington @ Portland State
Stephen F. Austin @ Lamar
Central Arkansas @ Tarleton
Northern Arizona @ Cal Poly
Sacramento State @ UC Davis
Missouri State @ Dixie State

[JALMOND]

I'm actually surprised I made it through the year.xlolxxthumbsupx

[KPSUL]

Week 12 picks - That was Easy!


32282

[OhioHen]

So if all five players ahead of me pick up a first elimination this week and I don't, do I win without having the most individual games won?

[HensRock]

By my understanding of the tiebreakers, that is correct.
Of course, that does not guarantee your victory. You would fall into a tiebreaker with others now below you who also do not have an elimination week yet, such as our esteemed host.
You have the edge, but if the above scenario plays out but you lose 2 games, and PWO goes 5/5, he wins.

[MR. CHICKEN]

32286


....AN' FO' S&G's..........IFIN' O-HEN OWNLAH LOSES ONE......PREFERRED GETS ALL FIVE......PREFERRED WINS ON # OF PERFECT WEEKS.....xhurrayx.....BRAWK!


PS.....KPSUL.....COOD ALSO FIGURE IN..O-HEN LOSES 2/PREFERRED LOSES 1/KPSUL GETS ALL 5.....KPSUL..... WOOD ALSO LOSE ON PERFECT WEEKS.......AWK!

[Preferred Walk-On]

Week 12 picks - That was Easy!


32282

I am excited to see who you picked after the deadline on Thursday. My button said "difficult" on it...probably time to get a new button.


So if all five players ahead of me pick up a first elimination this week and I don't, do I win without having the most individual games won?

Most correct would be the second tie-breaker, so yes, you would emerge victorious.


By my understanding of the tiebreakers, that is correct.
Of course, that does not guarantee your victory. You would fall into a tiebreaker with others now below you who also do not have an elimination week yet, such as our esteemed host.
You have the edge, but if the above scenario plays out but you lose 2 games, and PWO goes 5/5, he wins.

I feel like I might not be able to hold up that end of the bargain. I am all in on Ivy and MVFC teams this week, mostly because I was running out of others I had left that I felt confident in.


32286


....AN' FO' S&G's..........IFIN' O-HEN OWNLAH LOSES ONE......PREFERRED GETS ALL FIVE......PREFERRED WINS ON # OF PERFECT WEEKS.....xhurrayx.....BRAWK!


PS.....KPSUL.....COOD ALSO FIGURE IN..O-HEN LOSES 2/PREFERRED LOSES 1/KPSUL GETS ALL 5.....KPSUL..... WOOD ALSO LOSE ON PERFECT WEEKS.......AWK!

This scenario is even less likely, but I appreciate the support. Depending on how things work out, there are still a lot of situations (I think) where anybody with in 5 correct could win the whole f'n thing.

[KPSUL]

32286


....AN' FO' S&G's..........IFIN' O-HEN OWNLAH LOSES ONE......PREFERRED GETS ALL FIVE......PREFERRED WINS ON # OF PERFECT WEEKS.....xhurrayx.....BRAWK!

PS.....KPSUL.....COOD ALSO FIGURE IN..O-HEN LOSES 2/PREFERRED LOSES 1/KPSUL GETS ALL 5.....KPSUL..... WOOD ALSO LOSE ON PERFECT WEEKS.......AWK!

With 7 players ahead of me who have gotten through 11 weeks without an elimination, the odds of all of them stumbling week 12 and me winning the whole thing is only slightly more likely than me getting hit by a meteorite while watching the Maine @ UNH game on Saturday.

[MR. CHICKEN]

With 7 players ahead of me who have gotten through 11 weeks without an elimination, the odds of all of them stumbling week 12 and me winning the whole thing is only slightly more likely than me getting hit by a meteorite while watching the Maine @ UNH game on Saturday.


....xsighx....WAS OWNLAH HAVIN' FUN....WHIFF OHIOHEN'S....WHAT IF............THOUGHT YOUSE COMPUTER JOCKEYS...WOOD GET S&G's ($H-T$ & GIGGLES)......UMM LIKE....OMG/LOL....ETC......AH JES' TOOK IT.....TA COUPLE MO' DEGREES UH SEPARATION.......xsighx...AWK!

[caribbeanhen]

Having not used any of the allowable reused teams, I feel like I squandered that part of the game as I was thinking save em for playoffs

but it’s ovah

[TheValleyRaider]

Just proud of myself for making it all the way through to the final week. An honor to be considered, etc. etc...

[HensRock]

Win or lose, this has been a lot of fun. Thanks again for running it, PWO.
This really makes you look across the entire FCS landscape for good games!

[Preferred Walk-On]

I know this has been bumped a few times, but just wanted to update.

MAKE WEEK 12 SURVIVAL PICKS HERE (https://forms.gle/Hx7bwt5joBK2114a6)

DEADLINE: THU, NOV 18 @ 5 PM ET (TOMORROW)

I have received submissions from the following:

Preferred Walk-On
KPSUL
HensRock
OhioHen
TheValleyRaider

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just a quick reminder that the submission deadline is later today.

MAKE WEEK 12 SURVIVAL PICKS HERE (https://forms.gle/Hx7bwt5joBK2114a6)

DEADLINE: THU, NOV 18 @ 5 PM ET (TODAY)

I have received submissions from:

Preferred Walk-On
KPSUL
HensRock
OhioHen
TheValleyRaider
caribbeanhen
Chalupa Batman

[MTfan4life]

4 pm deadline? Shoot. I knew I forgot to do something this week. I'll try and find a chance to put this together before the deadline.

[HensRock]

10 players x 5 picks = 50 total picks

25 Different teams
11 Unique picks (4 by JALMOND!)

Popular Picks (Number of picks out of 10 players):
7 Missouri St.
4 SFA
3 EWU
3 Sam Houston
3 SDSU
3 Weber St.

[JALMOND]

10 players x 5 picks = 50 total picks

25 Different teams
11 Unique picks (4 by JALMOND!)



Really had nothing to lose, being that it is the last week. I didn't think I'd make it this far.

[MTfan4life]

This was such a fun contest this season! I always seem to slip up in survival leagues, so it was neat to be able to pick five teams each week with the chance to still miss a couple without being eliminated. I know you had mentioned changing things next year so it didn't come down to tiebreakers. I was thinking rather than picking like 8 teams each week, instead do the five like we did, but just make the final week insane! Maybe like 20 teams. Or 10 the second to last week and 15 the final one. That way you still get a crew participating the whole season, but some needed strategy to be able to have max capability the final couple weekends.

[OhioHen]

The first change I would suggest is this - a perfect week means FIVE correct. If only four legal picks are made, that player cannot have a "perfect" week. The blank is essentially a "loss" for perfection purposes.

The second suggestion (and this would have impacted me) - it takes four wins to avoid a weekly elimination. Alternatively, it could be set as a maximum of one loss (so players that only end up with four legal picks can still take a single loss without incurring an elimination).

[MR. CHICKEN]

The first change I would suggest is this - a perfect week means FIVE correct. If only four legal picks are made, that player cannot have a "perfect" week. The blank is essentially a "loss" for perfection purposes.

The second suggestion (and this would have impacted me) - it takes four wins to avoid a weekly elimination. Alternatively, it could be set as a maximum of one loss (so players that only end up with four legal picks can still take a single loss without incurring an elimination).

32293


....IFIN' YOUSE ARE REFERRIN'....TA ME......AH WAS DUH TEST CASE FO' CANCELLATIONS....MAH VERAH FIRST PICK IN VERAH FIRST WEEK.....DAYTON/ROBERT MORRIS WAS CANCELLED......AN' WHEN FOUND OUT...TO LATE TA DO ANYTHIN' 'BOUT IT.......BUT TAKE IT AWAY....IFIN' IT CURDLES YER COFFEE......B/CAUSE AH HALFTA HAVE PERFECT WEEK/DUH ROCK HASTA LOSE 2 FO' ME TA WIN.....BUT IF HE SLIPS UP/AH'M PERFECT....WE'D STILL BE TIED FO' PERFECT WEEKS......BRAWK!

[Chalupa Batman]

The first change I would suggest is this - a perfect week means FIVE correct. If only four legal picks are made, that player cannot have a "perfect" week. The blank is essentially a "loss" for perfection purposes.

The second suggestion (and this would have impacted me) - it takes four wins to avoid a weekly elimination. Alternatively, it could be set as a maximum of one loss (so players that only end up with four legal picks can still take a single loss without incurring an elimination).

For #1, are you saying that going 4/4 instead of 5/5 eliminates a perfect week for tiebreaker purposes, or that one would also lose their keeper pick?

[HensRock]

PWO, What do the blanks actually mean?
Is that a pick on a game that was cancelled or rescheduled or otherwise out of the participant's control?
Or was it an illegal pick or forgotten pick that WAS in the participant's control?
I have seen these blanks and wondered what happened there.

[MR. CHICKEN]

....YEAH...LET'S WAIT TIL LAST DAY...UH LAST WEEK...TA RAISE ??'s.........HAD ELEVEN WEEKS TA CHALLENGE.....B/4 TA-DAY.....AH WELL...GOTTAH GO.....GAME DAY IN NEWARK.......AH'M ACES...WHIFF YER DECISIONS.......MR. CHICKEN WOOD WANNAH WIN FAIRLY...........BEAT "NOVA.......UH NEVERAH-MIND.........BRAWK!

[Preferred Walk-On]

PWO, What do the blanks actually mean?
Is that a pick on a game that was cancelled or rescheduled or otherwise out of the participant's control?
Or was it an illegal pick or forgotten pick that WAS in the participant's control?
I have seen these blanks and wondered what happened there.

Guys, the game is for fun. Blanks mean an invalid pick or cancellation occurred. I removed them, and even though there were less picks from that player, it also increases the difficulty of “passing” for the week. It’s OK. In the future, I will address this, but for now, let’s just enjoy and see how it plays out. I appreciate the concern, and I appreciate everyone who participated. This was v. 1.0, and hopefully v. 2.0 will be better. Good luck to all your teams, and we’ll figure out how to make it better for next season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HensRock]

I was going to suggest in future maybe require a 6th pick as a backup, in case of a game cancellation or invalid pick. That way the 6th pick just gets substituted instead of having a blank.


In other news... The game is now MR. CHICKEN's to lose with my McCowboys falling to Northwestern St.

[HensRock]

Congrats MR. CHICKEN !