Week 11 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Crunch time! One week to go until Selection Sunday. Again this week I first broke down each conference and grouped teams together based on whether they're locks, should be in, or work left do. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they're upset in the final week and even then they might be ok. The "Work left to do" category is teams that I think are on the bubble or have to win a game they're not expected to win in order to get in. I put the percentage chance each team listed has to win their final based on the Massey ratings at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings.

After sitting down and mapping it all out conference by conference I came to the conclusion that this is going to be a tough bubble this year unless there's a bunch of upsets in week 12. You pretty much need to have 8+ wins and 3- losses to feel very comfortable.


MVFC
Things shifted quite a bit this week in the MVFC based on a hail mary in Vermillion. I think that probably set the MVFC "floor" to 5 bids and I still think UNI has a shot at 6-5 but USD and Missouri St moving clearly past them in the MVFC pecking order probably puts their playoff hopes on life support. I contemplated adding UND but I don't see them passing any of the 6 teams listed below in the MVFC pecking order even if they beat SDSU. There might only be one seed out of the MVFC though with all the 9+ win teams the Big Sky and CAA will produce.

Locks (1):
NDSU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs USD (80%)

Should be in (4):
SIU (7-3, 5-2) - Last game vs YSU (78%)
Missouri St (7-3, 6-2) - Last game @ Dixie St (97%)
South Dakota (7-3, 5-2) - Last game @ NDSU (20%)
SDSU (7-3, 4-3) - Last game vs UND (84%)

Work left to do (1):
UNI (5-5, 3-4) - Last game vs WIU (87%)


Big Sky
5 teams are locked in from the Big Sky and no one else is still alive in my estimation. The interesting thing is all 5 could be seeded and everyone other than Montana St could still drop out of the seeds as well so even though these teams are all in the postseason there's plenty to still be decided.

Locks (5):
Montana St (9-1, 7-0) - Last game @ Montana (36%)
Sacramento St (8-2, 7-0) - Last game @ UCD (47%)
EWU (8-2, 5-2) - Last game @ PSU (73%)
UC Davis (8-2, 5-2) - Last game vs Sac St (53%)
Montana (8-2, 5-2) - Last game vs Montana St (64%)


CAA
JMU and Nova are locks, after that URI looks pretty good with a winnable final game (but Massey doesn't necessarily think so) that could get them in as the 3rd CAA team. William & Mary needs a lot of help I think even if they win their final game. I'm going to guess the CAA gets 3 in.

Locks (2):
JMU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs Towson (92%)
Villanova (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ Delaware (75%)

Work left to do (2):
Rhode Island (7-3, 4-3) - Last game @ Elon (43%)
William & Mary (6-4, 4-3) - Last game vs Richmond (56%)


SOCON
The SOCON got quite a bit simpler after Saturday's games. ETSU and Mercer basically play the SOCON championship game next Saturday. ETSU is a lock and I think Mercer is fine even if they lose. Chatty and VMI however are vulnerable and on the bubble no matter what happens. I think it's very unlikely both make it in and VMI has the head-to-head win between the two plus a dominating win over Mercer (although Chatty has a win over ETSU). 2 or 3 bids seems to be what they'll land at, to get 4 they'd need a lot to go their way elsewhere on the bubble.

Locks (1):
ETSU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs Mercer (58%)

Should be in (1):
Mercer (7-2, 6-1) - Last game @ ETSU (42%)

Work left to do (2):
VMI (6-4, 4-3) - Last game vs WCU (66%)
Chattanooga (6-4, 5-2) - Last game vs The Citadel (91%)


AQ7
Sam Houston is locked in and a likely top 2 seed, SFA is likely in with a win over Lamar which they should get, and that's about all there is to say for the playoff picture in the AQ7. I think they get 2.

Locks (1):
SHSU (9-0, 5-0) - Last game @ ACU (83%)

Should be in (1):
SFA (7-3, 3-2) - Last game @ Lamar (91%)


Southland
The SLC got pretty simple on Saturday as well with SLU and UIW both locking themselves in with their win today and Nicholls, the last of the others still in contention, getting knocked out. The only drama left is to see if either one of these SLC teams might be able to snag a seed.

Locks (2):
UIW (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ HBU (85%)
SLU (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ Nicholls (62%)


Others
The de facto Big South title game between Kennesaw and Monmouth is big for bubble - a Monmouth win (which Massey has as a slight favorite) probably gives the Big South an at-large in Kennesaw and knocks someone from the SOCON/MVFC/CAA/AQ7 off the bubble. The bubble softened elsewhere amongst this group as UTM (OVC) and Holy Cross (Patriot) locked up their respective autos meaning those will be one bid leagues. FAMU seems very likely to get to 9-2 and won't make the SWAC title game. They'll probably be a wild card in the at-large discussion although their SoS is really not good so I don't like their chances given how tough the bubble is shaping up.

Locks (autobids):
OVC - UTM (9-1, 5-0) - Last game @ SEMO (60%)
Patriot - Holy Cross (8-2, 5-0) - Last game @ Bucknell (97%)

Should be in:
Big South - KSU (9-1, 6-0) - Last game vs Monmouth (46%)

Work left to do:
Big South - Monmouth (7-3, 6-0) - Last game @ KSU (54%)
SWAC - FAMU (8-2, 6-1) - Last game vs BCU (74%)


Projected bracket

So for locks and teams that should be in I've got 4 at-large from the MVFC, 4 from the Big Sky, and 1 each from the CAA, SOCON, AQ7, and Southland. That leaves only 1 left and I think there will be teams from the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON along with FAMU in contention for that last spot. I think URI out of the CAA is in the driver's seat for the last spot. So, like I mentioned earlier, the bubble is looking pretty tough. Here's my crack at the bracket projecting what will happen in the final week (which will no doubt be horribly wrong) - autobid denoted with an *:

Mercer (7-3) @ Southeastern Louisiana* (9-2) to #1 Sam Houston* (10-0)
Incarnate Word (9-2) @ Stephen F Austin (8-3) to #8 Missouri St (8-3)

Sacramento St (8-3) @ South Dakota St (8-3) to #5 Eastern Washington (9-2)
Rhode Island (8-3) @ Holy Cross* (9-2) to #4 James Madison (10-1)

South Dakota (7-4) @ Montana (8-3) to #3 North Dakota St* (10-1)
Sacred Heart* (8-3) @ UC Davis (9-2) to #6 Villanova* (9-2)

Davidson* (8-2) @ Kennesaw St* (10-1) to #7 East Tennessee St* (10-1)
UT-Martin* (10-1) @ Southern Illinois (8-3) to #2 Montana St* (10-1)

My last 4 in, in no particular order would be Mercer, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Stephen F Austin. My first four out, in no particular order, would be Chattanooga, FAMU, UNI, and VMI. Discuss away.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Nice work PC!!

[WileECoyote06]

Crunch time! One week to go until Selection Sunday. Again this week I first broke down each conference and grouped teams together based on whether they're locks, should be in, or work left do. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they're upset in the final week and even then they might be ok. The "Work left to do" category is teams that I think are on the bubble or have to win a game they're not expected to win in order to get in. I put the percentage chance each team listed has to win their final based on the Massey ratings at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings.

After sitting down and mapping it all out conference by conference I came to the conclusion that this is going to be a tough bubble this year unless there's a bunch of upsets in week 12. You pretty much need to have 8+ wins and 3- losses to feel very comfortable.


MVFC
Things shifted quite a bit this week in the MVFC based on a hail mary in Vermillion. I think that probably set the MVFC "floor" to 5 bids and I still think UNI has a shot at 6-5 but USD and Missouri St moving clearly past them in the MVFC pecking order probably puts their playoff hopes on life support. I contemplated adding UND but I don't see them passing any of the 6 teams listed below in the MVFC pecking order even if they beat SDSU. There might only be one seed out of the MVFC though with all the 9+ win teams the Big Sky and CAA will produce.

Locks (1):
NDSU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs USD (80%)

Should be in (4):
SIU (7-3, 5-2) - Last game vs YSU (78%)
Missouri St (7-3, 6-2) - Last game @ Dixie St (97%)
South Dakota (7-3, 5-2) - Last game @ NDSU (20%)
SDSU (7-3, 4-3) - Last game vs UND (84%)

Work left to do (1):
UNI (5-5, 3-4) - Last game vs WIU (87%)


Big Sky
5 teams are locked in from the Big Sky and no one else is still alive in my estimation. The interesting thing is all 5 could be seeded and everyone other than Montana St could still drop out of the seeds as well so even though these teams are all in the postseason there's plenty to still be decided.

Locks (5):
Montana St (9-1, 7-0) - Last game @ Montana (36%)
Sacramento St (8-2, 7-0) - Last game @ UCD (47%)
EWU (8-2, 5-2) - Last game @ PSU (73%)
UC Davis (8-2, 5-2) - Last game vs Sac St (53%)
Montana (8-2, 5-2) - Last game vs Montana St (64%)


CAA
JMU and Nova are locks, after that URI looks pretty good with a winnable final game (but Massey doesn't necessarily think so) that could get them in as the 3rd CAA team. William & Mary needs a lot of help I think even if they win their final game. I'm going to guess the CAA gets 3 in.

Locks (2):
JMU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs Towson (92%)
Villanova (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ Delaware (75%)

Work left to do (2):
Rhode Island (7-3, 4-3) - Last game @ Elon (43%)
William & Mary (6-4, 4-3) - Last game vs Richmond (56%)


SOCON
The SOCON got quite a bit simpler after Saturday's games. ETSU and Mercer basically play the SOCON championship game next Saturday. ETSU is a lock and I think Mercer is fine even if they lose. Chatty and VMI however are vulnerable and on the bubble no matter what happens. I think it's very unlikely both make it in and VMI has the head-to-head win between the two plus a dominating win over Mercer (although Chatty has a win over ETSU). 2 or 3 bids seems to be what they'll land at, to get 4 they'd need a lot to go their way elsewhere on the bubble.

Locks (1):
ETSU (9-1, 6-1) - Last game vs Mercer (58%)

Should be in (1):
Mercer (7-2, 6-1) - Last game @ ETSU (42%)

Work left to do (2):
VMI (6-4, 4-3) - Last game vs WCU (66%)
Chattanooga (6-4, 5-2) - Last game vs The Citadel (91%)


AQ7
Sam Houston is locked in and a likely top 2 seed, SFA is likely in with a win over Lamar which they should get, and that's about all there is to say for the playoff picture in the AQ7. I think they get 2.

Locks (1):
SHSU (9-0, 5-0) - Last game @ ACU (83%)

Should be in (1):
SFA (7-3, 3-2) - Last game @ Lamar (91%)


Southland
The SLC got pretty simple on Saturday as well with SLU and UIW both locking themselves in with their win today and Nicholls, the last of the others still in contention, getting knocked out. The only drama left is to see if either one of these SLC teams might be able to snag a seed.

Locks (2):
UIW (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ HBU (85%)
SLU (8-2, 6-1) - Last game @ Nicholls (62%)


Others
The de facto Big South title game between Kennesaw and Monmouth is big for bubble - a Monmouth win (which Massey has as a slight favorite) probably gives the Big South an at-large in Kennesaw and knocks someone from the SOCON/MVFC/CAA/AQ7 off the bubble. The bubble softened elsewhere amongst this group as UTM (OVC) and Holy Cross (Patriot) locked up their respective autos meaning those will be one bid leagues. FAMU seems very likely to get to 9-2 and won't make the SWAC title game. They'll probably be a wild card in the at-large discussion although their SoS is really not good so I don't like their chances given how tough the bubble is shaping up.

Locks (autobids):
OVC - UTM (9-1, 5-0) - Last game @ SEMO (60%)
Patriot - Holy Cross (8-2, 5-0) - Last game @ Bucknell (97%)

Should be in:
Big South - KSU (9-1, 6-0) - Last game vs Monmouth (46%)

Work left to do:
Big South - Monmouth (7-3, 6-0) - Last game @ KSU (54%)
SWAC - FAMU (8-2, 6-1) - Last game vs BCU (74%)


Projected bracket

So for locks and teams that should be in I've got 4 at-large from the MVFC, 4 from the Big Sky, and 1 each from the CAA, SOCON, AQ7, and Southland. That leaves only 1 left and I think there will be teams from the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON along with FAMU in contention for that last spot. I think URI out of the CAA is in the driver's seat for the last spot. So, like I mentioned earlier, the bubble is looking pretty tough. Here's my crack at the bracket projecting what will happen in the final week (which will no doubt be horribly wrong) - autobid denoted with an *:

Mercer (7-3) @ Southeastern Louisiana* (9-2) to #1 Sam Houston* (10-0)
Incarnate Word (9-2) @ Stephen F Austin (8-3) to #8 Missouri St (8-3)

Sacramento St (8-3) @ South Dakota St (8-3) to #5 Eastern Washington (9-2)
Rhode Island (8-3) @ Holy Cross* (9-2) to #4 James Madison (10-1)

South Dakota (7-4) @ Montana (8-3) to #3 North Dakota St* (10-1)
Sacred Heart* (8-3) @ UC Davis (9-2) to #6 Villanova* (9-2)

Davidson* (8-2) @ Kennesaw St* (10-1) to #7 East Tennessee St* (10-1)
UT-Martin* (10-1) @ Southern Illinois (8-3) to #2 Montana St* (10-1)

My last 4 in, in no particular order would be Mercer, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Stephen F Austin. My first four out, in no particular order, would be Chattanooga, FAMU, UNI, and VMI. Discuss away.

Great work.

I think if they enforce geographic pairings, Mercer would go to Kennesaw State.

[Sitting Bull]

Good work.

On the CAA, I agree likely three total though given W&M beats Richmond, I can’t see losing the tiebreak to URI. For W&M, we beat Villanova decisively (URI lost 44-0) and had a competitive game with JMU. We also won at Elon which, should they beat URI, would be the 4th place team.

I’m not sure what URis signature win would be, no one among the top 4 teams though.

[Professor Chaos]

Good work.

On the CAA, I agree likely three total though given W&M beats Richmond, I can’t see losing the tiebreak to URI. For W&M, we beat Villanova decisively (URI lost 44-0) and had a competitive game with JMU. We also won at Elon which, should they beat URI, would be the 4th place team. AGS will be in effect next week so one of those teams may make the committee's job easier and eliminate themselves by losing next week.

I’m not sure what URis signature win would be, no one among the top 4 teams though.
Yeah, that's a good point. It probably comes down to how much the committee values Rhode Island's "FBS" win over UMass and whether that extra D1 win makes a difference. I think URI comes out on the right side of that toss up but we'll see.

[caribbeanhen]

Hopefully Elon will beat Rhode to end that charade

Richmond beats William & Mary and CAA only gets/deserves 2 in

If the Richmond QB was healthy all year would be in

[Professor Chaos]

Great work.

I think if they enforce geographic pairings, Mercer would go to Kennesaw State.
It's possible. I chose to pair KSU with Davidson so the winner could be sent to ETSU and avoid a potential 2nd round playoff rematch from the regular season. That's not something the committee is obligated to do but I'd hope they try to if they can do so without adding a flight.

[wcugrad95]

If Mercer loses to ETSU they will only have 6 D1 wins. Does that change what you have for the SoCon? The Bears only played 10 games this year and they had a D2 game on the schedule (Point).

[Sitting Bull]

Yeah, that's a good point. It probably comes down to how much the committee values Rhode Island's "FBS" win over UMass and whether that extra D1 win makes a difference. I think URI comes out on the right side of that toss up but we'll see.

Possible but UMass is already 0-2 against CAA teams and I think ranked in Sagarin, may only be ahead of UAlbany in the conference. It does count as a D1 win but in this case, not sure that would tip any scales.

[wmmii]

Good job, fearful the CAA only gets two in playoffs but the field is weak for the last two slots at 7-4 records. Think the CAA gets a 3rd team before the SoCon.

If JMU and Nova win out then Nova is our AQ and has a case for being top 4 seed over JMU especially since they won the head to head!

This can be the only argument the Committee can use for a W&M bid if they beat Richmond
.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Possible but UMass is already 0-2 against CAA teams and I think ranked in Sagarin, may only be ahead of UAlbany in the conference. It does count as a D1 win but in this case, not sure that would tip any scales.
32274

...TOLD DIS STORY B/4.....ROCCO'S 1st YEAR @ UD........NEW HAMPSHIRE/DELAWARE.....7-4......HEN'S SKED WAS DEEMED STRONGER........WILDCATS GOT DUH TICKET......AS DEY BEAT UH 2 DUBBYA GA. SOUTHERN......FWIW.......BRAWK!!

[Professor Chaos]

If Mercer loses to ETSU they will only have 6 D1 wins. Does that change what you have for the SoCon? The Bears only played 10 games this year and they had a D2 game on the schedule (Point).
Yeah, I took that into account. I figured they would be second out of the SOCON by virtue of the worst they could end up at is a tie for 2nd place and they'd have a head-to-head win over UTC who they'd be tied with. No one in the SOCON outside of ETSU did anything of note out of conference so I thought it would basically come down to what they did in conference.

[caribbeanhen]

Let’s see a few make believe games

Youngstown St at Holy Cross

Western Illinois at Davidson

Northern Iowa at Kennesaw

Illinois State at Sacred Heart

North Dakota at Florida A&M

Princeton at Jackson State

Harvard at UC Davis

Montana or Villanova at Dartmouth

[MR. CHICKEN]

.......DIXIE STATE......HUNG 62 ON FORT LEWIS....LAST NIGHT........HOWEVERAH.......FORT LEWIS PUT UP 21......YOU-DEE....MANAGED 17......&.......WHILE AH GOT YOUSE ATTENTION......ROCCO NEEDS TA GET ZACH OUTTAH DERE.....HE'S UH TURN-OVER MACHINE.......AN' CHRISSY.....NEEDS TA GET ROCCO OUTTAH-DERE......BAWLK!

[Chalupa Batman]

Let’s see a few make believe games

Youngstown St at Holy Cross

Western Illinois at Davidson

Northern Iowa at Kennesaw

Illinois State at Sacred Heart

North Dakota at Florida A&M

Princeton at Jackson State

Harvard at UC Davis

Montana or Villanova at Dartmouth

One of the Ivys against UNI would be a good matchup, and a fun watch.

[MUHAWKS]

Just in case we lose to Kennesaw this week Is there ANY chance at all that Monmouth can get in @ 7-4 assuming a close loss to Kennesaw? I know the common thinking is NO, and I think I tend to agree but I really am not intimate enough with the other bubble teams. All 7 wins have been by double digits and the 4 losses would be a 3 pt loss to IVY Champ and top 25 Princeton, an FBS loss, bad loss to Patriot League champ and playoff team Holy Cross and hypothetical close loss to Top 10 playoff team Kennesaw. There would be no signature wins, but is 7 FCS wins all by a large margin with 2 close losses to playoff teams combined with last years showing against Sam Houston at least put them in any conversation or are the other bubble teams schedules and wins just too much to overcome?

I know certain years the committee has their darlings and some weird things happen so just asking folks who may be more in tune with that?

[Professor Chaos]

Just in case we lose to Kennesaw this week Is there ANY chance at all that Monmouth can get in @ 7-4 assuming a close loss to Kennesaw? I know the common thinking is NO, and I think I tend to agree but I really am not intimate enough with the other bubble teams. All 7 wins have been by double digits and the 4 losses would be a 3 pt loss to IVY Champ and top 25 Princeton, an FBS loss, bad loss to Patriot League champ and playoff team Holy Cross and hypothetical close loss to Top 10 playoff team Kennesaw. There would be no signature wins, but is 7 FCS wins all by a large margin with 2 close losses to playoff teams combined with last years showing against Sam Houston at least put them in any conversation or are the other bubble teams schedules and wins just too much to overcome?

I know certain years the committee has their darlings and some weird things happen so just asking folks who may be more in tune with that?
The bubble is going to be relatively tough this year and Monmouth would have no notable wins. Last year's playoff game vs SHSU should have no impact directly but maybe would have a slight impact by being in the back of the committee's minds. I think Monmouth needed to win one if those games against Princeton or HC to be in the at-large conversation at 8-3 with a loss to Kennesaw. I'm pretty sure they'll have to beat Kennesaw now to get in. That's just my take though, you never truly know until they announce the field.

[caribbeanhen]

Just in case we lose to Kennesaw this week Is there ANY chance at all that Monmouth can get in @ 7-4 assuming a close loss to Kennesaw? I know the common thinking is NO, and I think I tend to agree but I really am not intimate enough with the other bubble teams. All 7 wins have been by double digits and the 4 losses would be a 3 pt loss to IVY Champ and top 25 Princeton, an FBS loss, bad loss to Patriot League champ and playoff team Holy Cross and hypothetical close loss to Top 10 playoff team Kennesaw. There would be no signature wins, but is 7 FCS wins all by a large margin with 2 close losses to playoff teams combined with last years showing against Sam Houston at least put them in any conversation or are the other bubble teams schedules and wins just too much to overcome?

I know certain years the committee has their darlings and some weird things happen so just asking folks who may be more in tune with that?

If you somehow lose to Kennesaw just call it a season and come back next year

[MUHAWKS]

Yeah, I agree just making sure.. And yes, without beating them not sure it is deserved even if I feel we could go and play a top team well at this point.. Bubble seems VEERY tough I was trying to go through the teams and I just got frustrated b/c it is hard! Like mercer I was like hmmm these guys do not seem like a lock then I saw a couple of those teams in conf are pretty damn good..

[Professor Chaos]

Here's an interesting scenario to ponder. How do set the seeds if USD beats NDSU and Montana beats Montana St? You could have a 4 way tie for the MVFC title then and you could have 4 teams in the Big Sky with 9 wins on top of it. Keep in mind there's still SHSU, JMU, and Nova likely taking 3 other seeds and potentially a 10-1 ETSU as well. So you'd have to leave 3 or 4 of these teams out of the seeds:

Montana St (9-2)
NDSU (9-2)
EWU (9-2)
Montana (9-2)
Winner of UCD/Sac St (9-2)
Missouri St (8-3)
SIU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)

Seed-mageddon!

[MR. CHICKEN]

Just in case we lose to Kennesaw this week Is there ANY chance at all that Monmouth can get in @ 7-4 assuming a close loss to Kennesaw? I know the common thinking is NO, and I think I tend to agree but I really am not intimate enough with the other bubble teams. All 7 wins have been by double digits and the 4 losses would be a 3 pt loss to IVY Champ and top 25 Princeton, an FBS loss, bad loss to Patriot League champ and playoff team Holy Cross and hypothetical close loss to Top 10 playoff team Kennesaw. There would be no signature wins, but is 7 FCS wins all by a large margin with 2 close losses to playoff teams combined with last years showing against Sam Houston at least put them in any conversation or are the other bubble teams schedules and wins just too much to overcome?

I know certain years the committee has their darlings and some weird things happen so just asking folks who may be more in tune with that?

....DO YOUSE.....HAPPEN TA KNOW MARTY.....xconfusedx......BRAWK!

[MUHAWKS]

....DO YOUSE.....HAPPEN TA KNOW MARTY.....xconfusedx......BRAWK!

is that the UNH guy that got them in @ 6 wins one year??

[NY Crusader 2010]

I think Monmouth has a fighting chance to get in at 7-4 but would likely need help from Elon (v. URI), Richmond (@W&M), Western Carolina (v. VMI) and Western Illinois (@ Northern Iowa).

I know UNI is 5-5 but I think they get in over you guys at 6-5 (4-4 MVFC) with wins over Sacramento State, South Dakota State and Southern Illinois.

[Professor Chaos]

I think Monmouth has a fighting chance to get in at 7-4 but would likely need help from Elon (v. URI), Richmond (@W&M), Western Carolina (v. VMI) and Western Illinois (@ Northern Iowa).

I know UNI is 5-5 but I think they get in over you guys at 6-5 (4-4 MVFC) with wins over Sacramento State, South Dakota State and Southern Illinois.
They might even need more help than that. Assuming SFA (with a win over Lamar) and Mercer (even with a loss to ETSU) are in there's really only 1 at-large spot left. So they may also need Chattanooga to lose to The Citadel, SDSU to beat UND, and FAMU to lose to BCU. It wouldn't hurt if teams like EKU and Weber St lost also. Basically they need a bubble implosion.

[MUHAWKS]

got it-- seems very very unlikely. Makes Saturday against Kennesaw all the more exciting

[BigBlueMU]

got it-- seems very very unlikely. Makes Saturday against Kennesaw all the more exciting

Yes sir it does. Its very simple. We beat KSU we belong in the dance. We lose, we have no business being in the playoffs.

[MSUDuo]

Here's an interesting scenario to ponder. How do set the seeds if USD beats NDSU and Montana beats Montana St? You could have a 4 way tie for the MVFC title then and you could have 4 teams in the Big Sky with 9 wins on top of it. Keep in mind there's still SHSU, JMU, and Nova likely taking 3 other seeds and potentially a 10-1 ETSU as well. So you'd have to leave 3 or 4 of these teams out of the seeds:

Montana St (9-2)
NDSU (9-2)
EWU (9-2)
Montana (9-2)
Winner of UCD/Sac St (9-2)
Missouri St (8-3)
SIU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)

Seed-mageddon!

Is there precedent for a team losing the head to head (USD) being seeded over said team (MO State) they lost to?

I worry about them finishing the season with back to back wins against the XDSUs

But, then you look at what we've done too (USD, SIU, UNI) and close loses to OK State and NDSU and I have to believe if things fall right, we'll be fine

[Professor Chaos]

Is there precedent for a team losing the head to head (USD) being seeded over said team (MO State) they lost to?

I worry about them finishing the season with back to back wins against the XDSUs

But, then you look at what we've done too (USD, SIU, UNI) and close loses to OK State and NDSU and I have to believe if things fall right, we'll be fine
Based purely on memory it seems like head-to-head is pretty crucial if the teams are close to each other in the conference standings or overall W-L. There are exceptions like in 2016 when SDSU beat NDSU head-to-head, they were MVFC co-champs, but NDSU was the #1 seed and SDSU was the #8 seed. But that year NDSU was 10-1 with a win over Iowa and SDSU was 8-3.

But in the scenario I laid out, especially in the MVFC, you'd have all sorts of Team A beat Team B who beat Team C who beat Team A scenarios. They've got to split hairs at that point. The Big Sky seeds in 2019 are probably the best example of when they had to do that. They had:

Weber St (9-3, 7-1) - Big Sky auto - win over Sac St, loss to Montana
Sac St (9-3, 7-1) - Big Sky co-champ - wins over Montana and Montana St, loss to Weber St
Montana St (9-3, 6-2) - Win over Montana, loss to Sac St
Montana (9-3, 6-2) - Win over Weber St, losses to Sac St and Montana St

They ended up seeding Weber St at #3 (ahead of Montana who beat them), Sac St at #4, Montana St at #5, and Montana at #6. I'd say that was pretty fair given the head-to-head results between the 4 but it was a mess at the top of the Big Sky and would be again this year if Montana can knock off Montana St. Doubly so in the MVFC if USD can knock off NDSU.

[Gil Dobie]

Let’s see a few make believe games

Youngstown St at Holy Cross

Western Illinois at Davidson

Northern Iowa at Kennesaw

Illinois State at Sacred Heart

North Dakota at Florida A&M

Princeton at Jackson State

Harvard at UC Davis

Montana or Villanova at Dartmouth

I'll bite
Youngstown
WIU
UNI
ILL St
Fl A&M
JSU
UCD
Montana or Nova

Ivys don't have a good NC win. They need to join the playoffs or schedule outside the NE.

[JacksFan40]

Is there precedent for a team losing the head to head (USD) being seeded over said team (MO State) they lost to?

I worry about them finishing the season with back to back wins against the XDSUs

But, then you look at what we've done too (USD, SIU, UNI) and close loses to OK State and NDSU and I have to believe if things fall right, we'll be fine

I'd bet Missouri State should be a lock for a seed at this point. You guys have probably one of the best quality losses in the FCS, to a current FBS Top 10 team by seven points. Plus the NDSU loss won't hurt you in the slightest. Only thing is that the YSU loss was kind of a bad loss, and it cost you guys from taking home a share of the conference crown. Still, I think Missouri State should be seeded.

[Professor Chaos]

Projected field based on the AGS consensus (if the playoffs started this weekend):

Autobids
1. SHSU (1)
2. Montana St (2)
3. NDSU (4)
4. Villanova (6)
5. ETSU (7)
6. Kennesaw St (14)
7. UTM (17)
8. UIW (18)
9. Holy Cross (25)
10. Sacred Heart (NR)
11. Davidson (NR)

At-large
1. JMU (3)
2. EWU (5)
3. Missouri St (8)
4. Montana (9)
5. UC Davis (10)
6. SDSU (11)
7. South Dakota (12)
8. Sac St (13)
9. SLU (15)
10. SIU (16)
11. Mercer (20)
12. SFA (22)
13. Monmouth (24)

First four out
Rhode Island (26)
Chattanooga (27)
UNI (29)
William & Mary (30)

So maybe Monmouth has a better chance to snag that last at-large than I thought. If they lose a close one to Kennesaw on Saturday....

[Gil Dobie]

I would have UNI, Chatty or FAMU in over Monmouth.

[kdinva]

VMI soiled themselves these past 2 weeks by getting behind (again) and 3 or 4 plays away from not finishing...

[Houndawg]

Here's an interesting scenario to ponder. How do set the seeds if USD beats NDSU and Montana beats Montana St? You could have a 4 way tie for the MVFC title then and you could have 4 teams in the Big Sky with 9 wins on top of it. Keep in mind there's still SHSU, JMU, and Nova likely taking 3 other seeds and potentially a 10-1 ETSU as well. So you'd have to leave 3 or 4 of these teams out of the seeds:

Montana St (9-2)
NDSU (9-2)
EWU (9-2)
Montana (9-2)
Winner of UCD/Sac St (9-2)
Missouri St (8-3)
SIU (8-3)
South Dakota (8-3)

Seed-mageddon!

Out: SIU, USD, Montana, UCD or Sac St., maybe both. Thats without diving deep.

Hard to leave out USD after they beat NDSU, but the Valley isn't getting three seeds and MoSt looks pretty solid

[kalm]

Out: SIU, USD, Montana, UCD or Sac St., maybe both. Thats without diving deep.

Hard to leave out USD after they beat NDSU, but the Valley isn't getting three seeds and MoSt looks pretty solid

A 9-2 Montana with wins over UW and MSU wouldnt get a seed?

[SDFS]

SDSU only has 6 D-1 wins right now. Are you saying SDSU is in win or lose?

[Professor Chaos]

SDSU only has 6 D-1 wins right now. Are you saying SDSU is in win or lose?
Yeah, I think so. UND would have an argument over them with the same amount of wins and the head-to-head win but I think SDSU's wins over Colorado St and NDSU would still give them the nod over UND. I think UNI would have a better argument at 6-5 over SDSU than UND would. It shouldn't come into play but I also think SDSU would get a political edge based on (recent) playoff reputation.

[mvfcfan]

I didn't realize there was a WK 11 playoff thread yet, so I'm copying and pasting my take I posted on the WK 10 playoff thread earlier today.

Mvfcfan's projected field:

Should Be Locks (20): SHSU, MTST, SAC, EWU, MT, UCD, KENN, NOVA, JMU, NDSU, MOST, SDAK, SIU, UTM, ETSU, UIW, SELA, NEC AQ, PATRIOT AQ, PIONEER AQ

Bubble- not in order (9)= SFA, EKU, MONM, W&M, URI, SDSU, MER, CHATT, VMI

How bubbles make field:

- SDSU in with W against UND.
- URI should be in with W against Elon.
- Monmouth must win to make it and steal a bid.

- SFA knocks EKU off the bubble with a W.
- Mercer is in if they upset ETSU. They are out if they don't.
- VMI has a chance with W and Mercer loss.
- UTC needs both VMI and Mercer to lose to have a chance.
- W&M has a chance with a W.

In order, if all teams win, my at-large bubble would be SDSU, URI, MER, SFA, W&M, VMI, UTC, and EKU. Obviously Monmouth makes it with a W against KSU since they'd be the AQ of the Big South.

My prediction is that SDSU, URI, SFA, and W&M take care of business and make the tournament, while the other 5 do not. I do think Monmouth has a good chance against Kennesaw and W&M fans should watch that game with great interest.

[Professor Chaos]

I didn't realize there was a WK 11 playoff thread yet, so I'm copying and pasting my take I posted on the WK 10 playoff thread earlier today.

Mvfcfan's projected field:

Should Be Locks (20): SHSU, MTST, SAC, EWU, MT, UCD, KENN, NOVA, JMU, NDSU, MOST, SDAK, SIU, UTM, ETSU, UIW, SELA, NEC AQ, PATRIOT AQ, PIONEER AQ

Bubble- not in order (9)= SFA, EKU, MONM, W&M, URI, SDSU, MER, CHATT, VMI

How bubbles make field:

- SDSU in with W against UND.
- URI should be in with W against Elon.
- Monmouth must win to make it and steal a bid.

- SFA knocks EKU off the bubble with a W.
- Mercer is in if they upset ETSU. They are out if they don't.
- VMI has a chance with W and Mercer loss.
- UTC needs both VMI and Mercer to lose to have a chance.
- W&M has a chance with a W.

In order, if all teams win, my at-large bubble would be SDSU, URI, MER, SFA, W&M, VMI, UTC, and EKU. Obviously Monmouth makes it with a W against KSU since they'd be the AQ of the Big South.

My prediction is that SDSU, URI, SFA, and W&M take care of business and make the tournament, while the other 5 do not. I do think Monmouth has a good chance against Kennesaw and W&M fans should watch that game with great interest.
Mercer is in the same position as Monmouth where if they win they're the auto. I think Mercer has a good shot to get in even with a loss to ETSU since they would still be #2 in the SOCON standings and I think one of those other SOCON teams outside of ETSU would make it. We'll see though, VMI has head-to-head wins over Mercer and Chatty so that could go a long way for them even though they'll probably be behind both in the SOCON standings.

[MSUWineGuy]

I can’t believe the committee isn’t releasing a single pre-playoff standings.

[skinny_uncle]

Out: SIU, USD, Montana, UCD or Sac St., maybe both. Thats without diving deep.

Hard to leave out USD after they beat NDSU, but the Valley isn't getting three seeds and MoSt looks pretty solid

SIU out at 8-3? I doubt any Valley team with 8 wins would be out.

[Chalupa Batman]

Mercer is in the same position as Monmouth where if they win they're the auto. I think Mercer has a good shot to get in even with a loss to ETSU since they would be #2 in the SOCON standings and I think one of those other SOCON teams outside of ETSU would make it. We'll see though, VMI has head-to-head wins over Mercer and Chatty so that could go a long way for them even though they may behind both in the SOCON standings.

If they don't beat ETSU, is there any historical reference that you're (or anyone else is) aware of in how the committee will treat Mercer and the fact they only played 8 FCS games? At the end of the day they'd only have 6 D1 wins.

[Chalupa Batman]

SIU out at 8-3? I doubt any Valley team with 8 wins would be out.

He was saying that SIU would be out of the top 8 and a seed, not out of the playoffs.

[SDFS]

Yeah, I think so. UND would have an argument over them with the same amount of wins and the head-to-head win but I think SDSU's wins over Colorado St and NDSU would still give them the nod over UND. I think UNI would have a better argument at 6-5 over SDSU than UND would. It shouldn't come into play but I also think SDSU would get a political edge based on (recent) playoff reputation.

- I do agree that UNI would have a stronger argument over both UND and SDSU.
- The committee could be looking at the SDSU/UND as a play-in game at this point of the season. Again, I think SDSU covers UND this weekend - UND lost a middle linebacker and left tackle last weekend. So, that does not help UND's chances. We can only hope Stig starts making some bad calls.

[Professor Chaos]

If they don't beat ETSU, is there any historical reference that you're (or anyone else is) aware of in how the committee will treat Mercer and the fact they only played 8 FCS games? At the end of the day they'd only have 6 D1 wins.
I don't think the number of FCS games makes a big difference but the number of D1 wins might. As far as precedence outside of the "big 3" leagues both UIW and Lamar made it 2018 with 6 D1 wins. That was a pretty weak bubble though IIRC... this year maybe not so much.


- I do agree that UNI would have a stronger argument over both UND and SDSU.
- The committee could be looking at the SDSU/UND as a play-in game at this point of the season. Again, I think SDSU covers UND this weekend - UND lost a middle linebacker and left tackle last weekend. So, that does not help UND's chances. We can only hope Stig starts making some bad calls.
Wouldn't be surprising at all if you were right about SDSU and UND being a play-in. An argument could be made either way should UND win.

[Chalupa Batman]

I go over to the JMU board from time to time to learn about their team since none of their fans post over here anymore. They have a playoff status thread and they have some......interesting takes. Mostly they think they should be a 2 or 3 seed at worst, but are resigned to the fact that they'll get "screwed over" and end up a 4 or 5 seed. It's almost unanimous that they think in no way should NDSU be seeded ahead of them, but the only way we might end up ahead of them is because we're NDSU. One guy even thought that NDSU didn't deserve any seed at all because SDSU and our OOC was week, that Montana State has "an argument" to be seeded above JMU (even if they win the Brawl), and that Sam Houston deserves a 4 seed. There are a couple of more rational posters there, but even they have a "this is what I expect to happen and it's not what I think should happen" vibe.

In all honesty, JMU is very good and I can see arguments to seed them anywhere from 3 to 6 (more realistically 4 to 6) even if all the favorites win this weekend, I just got a kick out of how sure they are of themselves.

[Professor Chaos]

I go over to the JMU board from time to time to learn about their team since none of their fans post over here anymore. They have a playoff status thread and they have some......interesting takes. Mostly they think they should be a 2 or 3 seed at worst, but are resigned to the fact that they'll get "screwed over" and end up a 4 or 5 seed. It's almost unanimous that they think in no way should NDSU be seeded ahead of them, but the only way we might end up ahead of them is because we're NDSU. One guy even thought that NDSU didn't deserve any seed at all because SDSU and our OOC was week, that Montana State has "an argument" to be seeded above JMU (even if they win the Brawl), and that Sam Houston deserves a 4 seed. There are a couple of more rational posters there, but even they have a "this is what I expect to happen and it's not what I think should happen" vibe.

In all honesty, JMU is very good and I can see arguments to seed them anywhere from 3 to 6 (more realistically 4 to 6) even if all the favorites win this weekend, I just got a kick out of how sure they are of themselves.
Pretty similar to Bisonville. Seems like everyone thinks the committee is out to get their team and on our home boards we can have the echo chamber to shout it as loud as we want without much push back. I don't get why almost all JMU fans avoid AGS so much and prefer their echo chamber but it won't matter for much longer anyway.

[Chalupa Batman]

Pretty similar to Bisonville. Seems like everyone thinks the committee is out to get their team and on our home boards we can have the echo chamber to shout it as loud as we want without much push back. I don't get why almost all JMU fans avoid AGS so much and prefer their echo chamber but it won't matter for much longer anyway.

Maybe I'm just used to sort of used to interpreting BV so it doesn't seem as bad there, but I think this year most BV'ers are seeing a 3 or 4 seed for us is correct if we win this weekend and so does SH and MSU. Of course every teams board is going to be a bit of an echo chamber, but I'm always amazed at how full of themselves the Dukes board usually is.

[caribbeanhen]

I go over to the JMU board from time to time to learn about their team since none of their fans post over here anymore. They have a playoff status thread and they have some......interesting takes. Mostly they think they should be a 2 or 3 seed at worst, but are resigned to the fact that they'll get "screwed over" and end up a 4 or 5 seed. It's almost unanimous that they think in no way should NDSU be seeded ahead of them, but the only way we might end up ahead of them is because we're NDSU. One guy even thought that NDSU didn't deserve any seed at all because SDSU and our OOC was week, that Montana State has "an argument" to be seeded above JMU (even if they win the Brawl), and that Sam Houston deserves a 4 seed. There are a couple of more rational posters there, but even they have a "this is what I expect to happen and it's not what I think should happen" vibe.

In all honesty, JMU is very good and I can see arguments to seed them anywhere from 3 to 6 (more realistically 4 to 6) even if all the favorites win this weekend, I just got a kick out of how sure they are of themselves.

JMU would bounce Montana State, I hope they get the chance

[Chalupa Batman]

JMU would bounce Montana State, I hope they get the chance

They very well may (and everyone else for that matter), but I don't think in any way do they deserve to be seeded above the Bobcats if they win the Brawl.

[Preferred Walk-On]

JMU would bounce Montana State, I hope they get the chance

I’m curious why you seem to think it would be a foregone conclusion. I hope they get the chance as well, but I am hoping that JMU gets the #2 seed. Would love to see NDSU @ #3, winning in Bridgeforth, and using JMU’s field (not Frisco) for their championship pictures. Ring a bell, JMU? Also, don’t want to listen to ol’ Curt whine about being slighted to use for bulletin board material (which he will anyway). Oh, if JMU gets the #1 and NDSU #4, that works as well. JMU is very good, but I don’t think anyone should fear them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chalupa Batman]

I’m curious why you seem to think it would be a foregone conclusion. I hope they get the chance as well, but I am hoping that JMU gets the #2 seed. Would love to see NDSU @ #3, winning in Bridgeforth, and using JMU’s field (not Frisco) for their championship pictures. Ring a bell, JMU? Also, don’t want to listen to ol’ Curt whine about being slighted to use for bulletin board material (which he will anyway). Oh, if JMU gets the #1 and NDSU #4, that works as well. JMU is very good, but I don’t think anyone should fear them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t care when or where, but I hope we get to play both SH & JMU. Give them both the same farewell from FCS we gave Georgia Southern. Beating the Dukes in Harrisonburg would be an awesome final kick in the nuts to the Dukes since they’ve been pining so much to have us play there for the last 5 years.

[caribbeanhen]

I’m curious why you seem to think it would be a foregone conclusion. I hope they get the chance as well, but I am hoping that JMU gets the #2 seed. Would love to see NDSU @ #3, winning in Bridgeforth, and using JMU’s field (not Frisco) for their championship pictures. Ring a bell, JMU? Also, don’t want to listen to ol’ Curt whine about being slighted to use for bulletin board material (which he will anyway). Oh, if JMU gets the #1 and NDSU #4, that works as well. JMU is very good, but I don’t think anyone should fear them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I just don't get all wrapped up in the seeds, not saying they are not important but just wrack em up and break em

[Preferred Walk-On]

I just don't get all wrapped up in the seeds, not saying they are not important but just wrack em up and break em

I do agree with this. While I want my team to have all home games in the playoffs (so I can attend), you play the teams they put in front of you, and if you are the best, you emerge victorious. This year, my team maybe has a good enough resume to stay home throughout, but if the committee determines they do not, then go take care of business.

[MSUBobcat]

Bonarae didn't start a score thread yet so I'll just post here.

Nicholls just held on to a 45-42 victory over SELA after they missed a game tying FG from about 44 I think it was. They won't be long for the playoffs. Reminds me of the Rob Ash years, all gas-no brake. When they met a decent defense, it fell apart like wet one-ply.

[Professor Chaos]

Bonarae didn't start a score thread yet so I'll just post here.

Nicholls just held on to a 45-42 victory over SELA after they missed a game tying FG from about 44 I think it was. They won't be long for the playoffs. Reminds me of the Rob Ash years, all gas-no brake. When they met a decent defense, it fell apart like wet one-ply.
Yeah, I think SLU is still in the playoffs but they're going to make themselves sweat on Sunday now. I'd assume the committee can more easily overlook a 3 point loss to Nicholls in a rivalry game to end the season when they beat Nicholls by 10 earlier in the season.

[caribbeanhen]

Yeah, I think SLU is still in the playoffs but they're going to make themselves sweat. I'd assume the committee can more easily overlook a 3 point loss to Nicholls in a rivalry game to end the season when they beat Nicholls by 10 earlier in the season.

Yep, SLA has to be in, just to entertaining of a team not be included, Nicholls looked like physically superior to SLA tonight, I would put them in as well but I know they really have no chance

[Daytripper]

Here is football scoop doing their own fcs playoff crystal ball work...https://footballscoop.com/news/whos-in-whos-out-fcs-selection-sunday

[kalm]

Yep, SLA has to be in, just to entertaining of a team not be included, Nicholls looked like physically superior to SLA tonight, I would put them in as well but I know they really have no chance

Entertainment is not a metric.

[POD Knows]

Yep, SLA has to be in, just to entertaining of a team not be included, Nicholls looked like physically superior to SLA tonight, I would put them in as well but I know they really have no chance
I am all in for more of these bubble teams from some of these conferences getting in. Let’s get the BSC and the MVFC down to 2 or 3 teams. Water it down. The conference schedules for these two conferences is tough enough. Shouldn’t have to go through that gauntlet twice in the same year. 😁

[Mfergy4]

Here is football scoop doing their own fcs playoff crystal ball work...https://footballscoop.com/news/whos-in-whos-out-fcs-selection-sunday

Interesting reading....

[caribbeanhen]

I am all in for more of these bubble teams from some of these conferences getting in. Let’s get the BSC and the MVFC down to 2 or 3 teams. Water it down. The conference schedules for these two conferences is tough enough. Shouldn’t have to go through that gauntlet twice in the same year. 

when I say put Nicholls and SLA in, really it means keep Rhode Island and William out

The MVFC can have 6 in and it would be ok with me

[jmufan999]

Richmond beats William & Mary and CAA only gets/deserves 2 in

yep. only deserve 2 spots this year. anyone else getting in is going to embarrass the conference. doesn't mean I think JMU or Nova will win it all (because I don't think either one will) but I at least think those two programs won't be blown out in a loss. really bad year for the CAA.

[caribbeanhen]

yep. only deserve 2 spots this year. anyone else getting in is going to embarrass the conference. doesn't mean I think JMU or Nova will win it all (because I don't think either one will) but I at least think those two programs won't be blown out in a loss. really bad year for the CAA.

I couldn’t have said any better

[Sitting Bull]

yep. only deserve 2 spots this year. anyone else getting in is going to embarrass the conference. doesn't mean I think JMU or Nova will win it all (because I don't think either one will) but I at least think those two programs won't be blown out in a loss. really bad year for the CAA.

You mean embarrassing as in losing to Colgate at home in the 1st round? Or embarrassing as in blowing a 28 point halftime lead?

I’ve watched plenty of over rated and bloated teams like UNH, Maine and Delaware grab invites over the years. After being picked to finish 10th in the CAA and possibly ending 3rd, with a win at the conference champ to boot, I would be happy for W&M to get in. They have to beat Richmond and hope Elon beats URI.

And if we get it and it upsets a couple JMU or Delaware fans, tough *****.

[caribbeanhen]

You mean embarrassing as in losing to Colgate at home in the 1st round? Or embarrassing as in blowing a 28 point halftime lead?

I’ve watched plenty of over rated and bloated teams like UNH, Maine and Delaware grab invites over the years. After being picked to finish 10th in the CAA and possibly ending 3rd, with a win at the conference champ to boot, I would be happy for W&M to get in. They have to beat Richmond and hope Elon beats URI.

And if we get it and it upsets a couple JMU or Delaware fans, tough *****.

when Delaware actually used to make playoff they had good runs

I would be all in on the Tribe if I thought you were good this year, it’s just the CAA is embarrassing right now outside the big 2

[Sitting Bull]

when Delaware actually used to make playoff they had good runs

I would be all in on the Tribe if I thought you were good this year, it’s just the CAA is embarrassing right now outside the big 2

I am in no way embarrassed for how the Tribe has played overall this year.

[caribbeanhen]

I am in no way embarrassed for how the Tribe has played overall this year.

I hear you, I remember seeing most of your nice win over Towson and thinking thats a team that can give Nova some problems, never thought you would beat em but you did.

Of course I thought you would beat Delaware but you played poorly and not sure how you lost to Maine

Richmond handled the Hens like Perdue did which means you probably match up well with them. The Spiders are much better with a healthy Mancuso so if you beat Richy you have my support in playoffs, I just think there are some better teams is all.

[katss07]

UNI has 5 good losses, 4 moral victories and two top 5 wins. They should be in.

[Sitting Bull]

I hear you, I remember seeing most of your nice win over Towson and thinking thats a team that can give Nova some problems, never thought you would beat em but you did.

Of course I thought you would beat Delaware but you played poorly and not sure how you lost to Maine

Richmond handled the Hens like Perdue did which means you probably match up well with them. The Spiders are much better with a healthy Mancuso so if you beat Richy you have my support in playoffs, I just think there are some better teams is all.

I actually thought when we started the CAA slate with the win at Elon, I thought that win would stack up better as the season went and it’s even bigger now to close the season. If W&M and Elon win tomorrow, very possible, that would mean we beat both the #1 and #4 team on the road. The Maine and Delaware losses were disappointing but unless you go undefeated, any loss is disappointing.

[FUBeAR]

I actually thought when we started the CAA slate with the win at Elon, I thought that win would stack up better as the season went and it’s even bigger now to close the season. If W&M and Elon win tomorrow, very possible, that would mean we beat both the #1 and #4 team on the road. The Maine and Delaware losses were disappointing but unless you go undefeated, any loss is disappointing.
Please tell FUBeAR he’s reading this wrong and you are not counting on a win over Elon to propel W&M into the Playoffs.

Elon lost to Wofford at home. Wofford went 0-8 in the SoCon & was completely curb-stomped in half of their SoCon games. In fact, Elon is the ONLY Team Wofford has beaten in their most recent scheduled 17 games.

If this Wofford Team found some way to beat Elon, Elon would surely go winless in the SoCon.

The fact that Elon could very well finish 3rd in the CAA tells FUBeAR that the CAA is clearly a 2-bid-only league.

[Sitting Bull]

Please tell FUBeAR he’s reading this wrong and you are not counting on a win over Elon to propel W&M into the Playoffs.

Elon lost to Wofford at home. Wofford went 0-8 in the SoCon & was completely curb-stomped in half of their SoCon games. In fact, Elon is the ONLY Team Wofford has beaten in their most recent scheduled 17 games.

If this Wofford Team found some way to beat Elon, Elon would surely go winless in the SoCon.

The fact that Elon could very well finish 3rd in the CAA tells FUBeAR that the CAA is clearly a 2-bid-only league.

Well Wofford also came close to knocking off your likely champ. East Tennessee, so not sure what that says about the So Con either. In fairness, I did mention “as the season went on” as it seemed obvious to me that Elon was showing improvement with each week and had an impressive man at QB.

This envy and infatuation you So Con guys continue to have for Elon is embarrassing.

[Houndawg]

SIU out at 8-3? I doubt any Valley team with 8 wins would be out.

Yes, in the scenario we were discussing I think SIU would not get a seed at 8-3

[FUBeAR]

Well Wofford also came close to knocking off your likely champ. East Tennessee, so not sure what that says about the So Con either. In fairness, I did mention “as the season went on” as it seemed obvious to me that Elon was showing improvement with each week and had an impressive man at QB.

This envy and infatuation you So Con guys continue to have for Elon is embarrassing.LOL - ETSU was like a cat playing with a half-dead mouse in that game and “came close” doesn’t play in big boy games anyway.

Envy over E*Loan? My keyboard doesn’t even have enough LOL’s on it to respond to that crock of elephant shiite. Any Team that lost to the current Wofford Team would, undoubtedly, finish in the bottom half of the PFL…at best. Hey, maybe the Formerly Fightin’ Former Christians can try that Conference next. They’ve haven’t worn out their welcome in that one yet.

That said, my original post is not about E*Loan. It’s to point out that the CAA clearly has NOTHING this year outside of JMU & Villanova.