Southland Shenanigans?

[NOLA]

Was texting with a buddy of mine who is a grad of SELA, which apparently gives a degree to anyone. With them losing Saturday it made things very very interesting. We talked about how next week's game could be for a championship again and three teams could share the title. Wanted to bring this up to see what everyone else thought.


Current Standings and opponents remaining
SELA - 7-2/5-1 Southland
Northwestern State
Nicholls

Incarnate Word - 7-2/5-1 Southland
At Nicholls
At Houston Baptist

Nicholls - 5-4, 4-2 Southland
Incarnate Word
at Southeastern Louisiana

Factor in wins for the Lions and UIW against NSU and HBU, then Nicholls wins their last two it would look like this. If Nicholls loses one or both, then it would be less complicated.

SELA - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 0-1 vs FBS
Incarnate Word - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 1-0 vs FBS
Nicholls - 7-4, 6-2 Southland, 7 D1 wins, 0-2 vs FBS


So does the Southland have any shot of all three making the playoffs since there would be a three-way tie for the title? Has a league champion ever missed the playoffs? This could be a great scenario for the Southland if all three get in, or worst nightmare if one or two of the conference champions are watching from home. I have no clue who gets the auto bid. I think it would be crazy if three of the six teams make it but who do you leave out?

[Daytripper]

Was texting with a buddy of mine who is a grad of SELA, which apparently gives a degree to anyone. With them losing Saturday it made things very very interesting. We talked about how next week's game could be for a championship again and three teams could share the title. Wanted to bring this up to see what everyone else thought.


Current Standings and opponents remaining
SELA - 7-2/5-1 Southland
Northwestern State
Nicholls

Incarnate Word - 7-2/5-1 Southland
At Nicholls
At Houston Baptist

Nicholls - 5-4, 4-2 Southland
Incarnate Word
at Southeastern Louisiana

Factor in wins for the Lions and UIW against NSU and HBU, then Nicholls wins their last two it would look like this. If Nicholls loses one or both, then it would be less complicated.

SELA - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 0-1 vs FBS
Incarnate Word - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 1-0 vs FBS
Nicholls - 7-4, 6-2 Southland, 7 D1 wins, 0-2 vs FBS


So does the Southland have any shot of all three making the playoffs since there would be a three-way tie for the title? Has a league champion ever missed the playoffs? This could be a great scenario for the Southland if all three get in, or worst nightmare if one or two of the conference champions are watching from home. I have no clue who gets the auto bid. I think it would be crazy if three of the six teams make it but who do you leave out?

Nicholls is not getting into the playoffs. Full stop.

[lionsrking2]

Was texting with a buddy of mine who is a grad of SELA, which apparently gives a degree to anyone. With them losing Saturday it made things very very interesting. We talked about how next week's game could be for a championship again and three teams could share the title. Wanted to bring this up to see what everyone else thought.


Current Standings and opponents remaining
SELA - 7-2/5-1 Southland
Northwestern State
Nicholls

Incarnate Word - 7-2/5-1 Southland
At Nicholls
At Houston Baptist

Nicholls - 5-4, 4-2 Southland
Incarnate Word
at Southeastern Louisiana

Factor in wins for the Lions and UIW against NSU and HBU, then Nicholls wins their last two it would look like this. If Nicholls loses one or both, then it would be less complicated.

SELA - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 0-1 vs FBS
Incarnate Word - 8-3, 6-2 Southland, 8 D1 wins, 1-0 vs FBS
Nicholls - 7-4, 6-2 Southland, 7 D1 wins, 0-2 vs FBS


So does the Southland have any shot of all three making the playoffs since there would be a three-way tie for the title? Has a league champion ever missed the playoffs? This could be a great scenario for the Southland if all three get in, or worst nightmare if one or two of the conference champions are watching from home. I have no clue who gets the auto bid. I think it would be crazy if three of the six teams make it but who do you leave out?

No chance all three make it. It'll either be SLU and UIW, just UIW or possibly UIW and Nicholls. I don't see a scenario where it's just SLU. I think UIW will get in at 8-3, but I don't think we would. The tiebreaker rules are complicated, and we've read them many times. If you interpret them one way, Nicholls may have a chance at the autobid if they win out, but interpreted another, they would not. I'll wait for the brain surgeons in the league office to sort it out.

[Daytripper]

No chance all three make it. It'll either be SLU and UIW, just UIW or possibly UIW and Nicholls. I don't see a scenario where it's just SLU. I think UIW will get in at 8-3, but I don't think we would. The tiebreaker rules are complicated, and we've read them many times. If you interpret them one way, Nicholls may have a chance at the autobid if they win out, but interpreted another, they would not. I'll wait for the brain surgeons in the league office to sort it out.

Tough path for Nicholls. I think UIW could drop 60 points on the Colonels. And SELA is winning out.

[lionsrking2]

Tough path for Nicholls. I think UIW could drop 60 points on the Colonels. And SELA is winning out.

I agree but playing along with the hypothetical.

[MTfan4life]

Has a league champion ever missed the playoffs?

I'm pretty sure Wofford has missed the playoffs while also tying for the conference championship. Then I know there's been a few examples from the typical one-bid conferences where multiple teams tie and only one gets in.

[mvemjsunpx]

I'm pretty sure Wofford has missed the playoffs while also tying for the conference championship. Then I know there's been a few examples from the typical one-bid conferences where multiple teams tie and only one gets in.

Also Idaho State in 2002, which is particularly sad because they haven't made the playoffs since 1983.

[mvemjsunpx]

Tough path for Nicholls. I think UIW could drop 60 points on the Colonels. And SELA is winning out.

Nicholls would have a relatively strong 7-4 case if they can get there:

- 7-2 against FCS
- 1 good win (this week vs. UIW), 0 bad losses
- A close loss to Sun Belt leader Louisiana-Lafayette
- The Southland is somehow the 3rd. rated conference in the Sagarins

[lionsrking2]

Nicholls would have a relatively strong 7-4 case if they can get there:

- 7-2 against FCS
- 1 good win (this week vs. UIW), 0 bad losses
- A close loss to Sun Belt leader Louisiana-Lafayette
- The Southland is somehow the 3rd. rated conference in the Sagarins
I don’t care much for Sagarin or Massey ratings but the Southland is a better league than many perceive, especially the top 4.

[KPSUL]

It happens all the time in Patriot. NEC, and Pioneer. Conferences should have tie breakers in place to select their one autobid. I suspect that the SL should and will get one team in the playoffs

[lionsrking2]

It happens all the time in Patriot. NEC, and Pioneer. Conferences should have tie breakers in place to select their one autobid. I suspect that the SL should and will get one team in the playoffs
Southland will get 2 for sure as long as we don’t lose again.

[Libertine]

Conferences should have tie breakers in place to select their one autobid.

They all do. For years, the Southland had the dumbest tiebreaker imaginable which was that the team that had been out of the playoffs the longest got the autobid. They've seen reason, however, and now go by head-to-head record and, if still tied, go by best record vs. the next team down the standings.

[lionsrking2]

They all do. For years, the Southland had the dumbest tiebreaker imaginable which was that the team that had been out of the playoffs the longest got the autobid. They've seen reason, however, and now go by head-to-head record and, if still tied, go by best record vs. the next team down the standings.

The tiebreaker this year would eventually get to the SRS rating if there is a three-way tie. There would be no common opponent that we all would have played the same number of times.

[NOLA]

Appreciate the responses. I did a rundown of the teams if this scenario were to happen.


SELA has two meh non conference wins over North Alabama (2-7) and Central Connecticut State (3-6). And nearly beat a bad FBS Louisiana Tech team (2-7). UIW beat Prairie View (7-1), beat a bad FBS Texas State (3-6), and lost to a mediocre Youngstown State (2-6). Nicholls also beat North Alabama (2-7) but lost to a decent FBS Memphis (5-4) and nearly beat FBS Louisiana-Lafayette (8-1) who is ranked 24th right now.

My case for Nicholls would be that they would have a 5 game winning streak with wins over the others and between the three top teams, UIW and Southeastern only played once while Nicholls had to play both of them twice. In the losses to Incarnate and Southeastern, they were the first two games without the top running back. Everyone and their brother knows we like running the football and we've since found a backup to carry the load pun intended. Whether Gums returns these final two weeks I have no idea.


It’s funny when you start comparing the teams if this happens. Southeastern’s best win would be Nicholls, which it will have just lost to at home. Nicholls’ best wins would be SELA and UIW, and they also lost to them earlier. And the other two losses are versus FBS teams, one which they almost beat and is nationally-ranked. UIW would also have a win against both, a loss to Nicholls, a FBS win, and a solid FCS win, but also lost to a bad FCS team and a mediocre Southland team (McNeese). So UIW would probably have the most quality wins but also the only one of the three with questionable losses.

I know it's a tough task for the Colonels but they always seem to get hot late.

[caribbeanhen]

Just send 3 Southland teams

after Kennesaw loses to Monmouth I would keep the Owls up a tree

[lionsrking2]

Just send 3 Southland teams

after Kennesaw loses to Monmouth I would keep the Owls up a tree

I would agree with that. Our three are better than some that may get in over us.

[lionsrking2]

Appreciate the responses. I did a rundown of the teams if this scenario were to happen.


SELA has two meh non conference wins over North Alabama (2-7) and Central Connecticut State (3-6). And nearly beat a bad FBS Louisiana Tech team (2-7). UIW beat Prairie View (7-1), beat a bad FBS Texas State (3-6), and lost to a mediocre Youngstown State (2-6). Nicholls also beat North Alabama (2-7) but lost to a decent FBS Memphis (5-4) and nearly beat FBS Louisiana-Lafayette (8-1) who is ranked 24th right now.

My case for Nicholls would be that they would have a 5 game winning streak with wins over the others and between the three top teams, UIW and Southeastern only played once while Nicholls had to play both of them twice. In the losses to Incarnate and Southeastern, they were the first two games without the top running back. Everyone and their brother knows we like running the football and we've since found a backup to carry the load pun intended. Whether Gums returns these final two weeks I have no idea.


It’s funny when you start comparing the teams if this happens. Southeastern’s best win would be Nicholls, which it will have just lost to at home. Nicholls’ best wins would be SELA and UIW, and they also lost to them earlier. And the other two losses are versus FBS teams, one which they almost beat and is nationally-ranked. UIW would also have a win against both, a loss to Nicholls, a FBS win, and a solid FCS win, but also lost to a bad FCS team and a mediocre Southland team (McNeese). So UIW would probably have the most quality wins but also the only one of the three with questionable losses.

I know it's a tough task for the Colonels but they always seem to get hot late.

First of all, we're not losing, so there's that ;) — but I don't see anyway Nicholls gets an at-large unless the bottom falls out of the at-large pool these last two weeks. That said, you guys are better than anybody in the SOCON or Big South that might be considered for an at-large. Don't know that you could get the autobid using SRS rating.

[walliver]

I'm pretty sure Wofford has missed the playoffs while also tying for the conference championship. Then I know there's been a few examples from the typical one-bid conferences where multiple teams tie and only one gets in.
It didn't happen to Wofford, but I believe Chattanooga is the team about which you are thinking.

[KPSUL]

Southland will get 2 for sure as long as we don’t lose again.

You might want to "suspect" and/or "should" that projection rather than "for sure" it.

[Libertine]

It didn't happen to Wofford, but I believe Chattanooga is the team about which you are thinking.

It's happened multiple times in the Big South. Twice in three years (2010 and 2012), the conference had tri-champs and only one playoff team among them.

[lionsrking2]

You might want to "suspect" and/or "should" that projection rather than "for sure" it.

I'm sure of it.

[KPSUL]

So, this is all I'm sure off concerning the Fall 2021 Southland Conference:

It is down to six teams.

The two most successful programs of the last 5 full seasons departed for the ASun

To maintain an eight game conference schedule each team must play 3 teams twice - for Nichols and IWU one of the three is hapless 0-9 HBU. One team SLU plays twice is 2-7 Northwestern who has HBU to thank for their 2 wins.

The combined OOC record for the Southland Conf. is 6-12.

In light of these facts, please explain why the selection committee should select 50%, or even 33%, of the teams from this conference?

[mvemjsunpx]

The combined OOC record for the Southland Conf. is 6-12.

This is misleading because it includes FBS losses. The Southland's FCS non-conference record is 5-5 (6-6 if you include FBS wins & non-DI losses).

Only 3 FCS conferences have winning non-conference records records for all games: MVFC, CAA, Ivy.

[lionsrking2]

This is misleading because it includes FBS losses. The Southland's FCS non-conference record is 5-5 (6-6 if you include FBS wins & non-DI losses).

Only 3 FCS conferences have winning non-conference records records for all games: MVFC, CAA, Ivy.

This.

[lionsrking2]

So, this is all I'm sure off concerning the Fall 2021 Southland Conference:

It is down to six teams.

The two most successful programs of the last 5 full seasons departed for the ASun

To maintain an eight game conference schedule each team must play 3 teams twice - for Nichols and IWU one of the three is hapless 0-9 HBU. One team SLU plays twice is 2-7 Northwestern who has HBU to thank for their 2 wins.

The combined OOC record for the Southland Conf. is 6-12.

In light of these facts, please explain why the selection committee should select 50%, or even 33%, of the teams from this conference?

Because it's what's going to happen, that's why. UIW has an FBS win and a win over us, so they'll get in at either 8-3 or 9-2. If we finish 9-2, we'll have nine D-I wins, including two blowout FCS road wins, a 3-point FBS loss on the road, and a close loss to a ranked FCS team on the road. Plus we would have played 7 of 11 games on the road due to Hurricane Ida. We have the reigning Walter Payton Award winner and the top ranked offense in the country. I would be nervous if we finish 8-3, even though that still might do it — but I wouldn't bet on it, and would even lean against it.

[Puddin Tane]

You gotta remember the MfrickingVFC has to get their 6 or 7 teams in

slc beats each other up, its soft
mvfc beats each other up, its hard nosed blue collar playoff worthy

[Puddin Tane]

Same with the damn poll.

[lionsrking2]

You gotta remember the MfrickingVFC has to get their 6 or 7 teams in

slc beats each other up, its soft
mvfc beats each other up, its hard nosed blue collar playoff worthy

We'll get two unless we lose again, though Nicholls could slide in there if they beat UIW Saturday and beat us Thursday. They would have good case.

[caribbeanhen]

We'll get two unless we lose again, though Nicholls could slide in there if they beat UIW Saturday and beat us Thursday. They would have good case.

LK2, playoffs will be better with SLA in.... just get in

[caribbeanhen]

You might want to "suspect" and/or "should" that projection rather than "for sure" it.


not sure how many Southland games you've watched but I would take their top 3 over CAAs third best team

[Puddin Tane]

Where is/what happened to Julien Gums?

[lionsrking2]

LK2, playoffs will be better with SLA in.... just get in

That’s the plan.

[FUBeAR]

I'm pretty sure Wofford has missed the playoffs while also tying for the conference championship. Then I know there's been a few examples from the typical one-bid conferences where multiple teams tie and only one gets in.

It didn't happen to Wofford, but I believe Chattanooga is the team about which you are thinking.

2013 - Chattanooga
2018 - Furman

stay-at-home FCS Conference Champions

[KPSUL]

This is misleading because it includes FBS losses. The Southland's FCS non-conference record is 5-5 (6-6 if you include FBS wins & non-DI losses).

Only 3 FCS conferences have winning non-conference records records for all games: MVFC, CAA, Ivy.

It's not misleading, Out of Conference means ALL games not played in conference. It would be misleading if it said "FCS OOC Games".

Also good job bringing in the comparative data. The MVFC is without question the premiere FCS conference - it may get 50% of its teams in. The CAA, with apparently a winning OOC record, may get 3 teams in - 25%. I doubt the Big Sky or SoCon will get 33% or more of their teams in the playoffs. So why are we even discussing a greatly diminished, 6 team, Southland getting 2 or 3 teams in the playoff field?

[KPSUL]

not sure how many Southland games you've watched but I would take their top 3 over CAAs third best team

And why should this be an important factor?

[lionsrking2]

It's not misleading, Out of Conference means ALL games not played in conference. It would be misleading if it said "FCS OOC Games".

Also good job bringing in the comparative data. The MVFC is without question the premiere FCS conference - it may get 50% of its teams in. The CAA, with apparently a winning OOC record, may get 3 teams in - 25%. I doubt the Big Sky or SoCon will get 33% or more of their teams in the playoffs. So why are we even discussing a greatly diminished, 6 team, Southland getting 2 or 3 teams in the playoff field?

Wanna bet?

[HensRock]

And why should this be an important factor?

Yeah, I didn't see that either. Where will the 3rd place CAA team be in December?

[caribbeanhen]

And why should this be an important factor?


because you probably believe Rhode Island and/or William & Mary are better than a third Southland team or Nichols as it stands right now

am I wrong about this?

[mvemjsunpx]

It's not misleading, Out of Conference means ALL games not played in conference. It would be misleading if it said "FCS OOC Games".

It's misleading because you're like, "Look! They're 6-12! That's baaaaaaad," even thought the aggregate OOC of all conferences is well below .500.


Also good job bringing in the comparative data. The MVFC is without question the premiere FCS conference - it may get 50% of its teams in. The CAA, with apparently a winning OOC record, may get 3 teams in - 25%. I doubt the Big Sky or SoCon will get 33% or more of their teams in the playoffs. So why are we even discussing a greatly diminished, 6 team, Southland getting 2 or 3 teams in the playoff field?

You mean, aside from the fact that there's no such thing as conference quotas?

Also… if UIW & SELU both win out, they're both getting in for sure. The Southland not getting an at-large would be surprising at this point.

[KPSUL]

because you probably believe Rhode Island and/or William & Mary are better than a third Southland team or Nichols as it stands right now

am I wrong about this?

I believe that IF URI or William and Mary get selected they had a tougher road to travel than any of the top 3 Southland teams based on the factors I presented in the earlier posts to this thread.

[McCowboys]

I believe that IF URI or William and Mary get selected they had a tougher road to travel than any of the top 3 Southland teams based on the factors I presented in the earlier posts to this thread.

"Tougher road to travel" is pretty ironic considering SLU played its first five games on the road, and will have played 7 road games in the regular season.

[lionsrking2]

"Tougher road to travel" is pretty ironic considering SLU played its first five games on the road, and will have played 7 road games in the regular season.

This

[caribbeanhen]

It happens all the time in Patriot. NEC, and Pioneer. Conferences should have tie breakers in place to select their one autobid. I suspect that the SL should and will get one team in the playoffs

Are you comparing the Southland with those other 3 conferences in level of play?

[lionsrking2]

I believe that IF URI or William and Mary get selected they had a tougher road to travel than any of the top 3 Southland teams based on the factors I presented in the earlier posts to this thread.

Tougher road in what way?

[lionsrking2]

Are you comparing the Southland with those other 3 conferences in level of play?

I can't speak for all of the teams in those leagues, and no offense meant towards Central Connecticut, but they were far and away the worst team we've played this year — it was literally like practice.

[KPSUL]

Tougher road in what way?

I've yet to see any real counter argument made to the three or four factor I've identified in the Thread to support my assertion that the the remnants of the Southland conference should be a one playoff conference this season. What I'm reading are things like; "oh yeah", "I watch parts of a lot of Southland games on TV" and "Ya wanna bet" ?

I've made it pretty clear what is not tough about the Southland conference schedule circa Fall 2021, I see no reason to delve into the CAA schedule since nothing of substance has changed in conference scheduling - it consists of the same 12 teams and the same scheduling methodology. This is also not just about the Southland vs, CAA; the number of teams ultimately selected from the heavily depleted Southland effects a number of other conferences just as much to include the SoCon, Big Sky and Big South.

Now, if William & Mary loses this weekend and ends up 6-5, then there really are only three teams from the CAA that will have 7 or more Division 1 wins, and IMHO would be strong candidates for playoff selection. Without a doubt, both the 2nd and 3rd place CAA team should get an at large bid before any Southland Teams. If W&M wins Saturday and ends up 7-4, I would argue that they also deserve an at large bid before any Southland team gets an at-large bid.

I'll make one more argument for selecting the 7 win CAA teams over a second Southland team. Over the past 10 years, when there were 11 teams in the Southland, including SHSU, UCA and SFA, 3rd or 4th place 7-4 CAA teams have been beating seeded Southland Conference Champions in the playoffs on a regular basis.

[lionsrking2]

I've yet to see any real counter argument made to the three or four factor I've identified in the Thread to support my assertion that the the remnants of the Southland conference should be a one playoff conference this season. What I'm reading are things like; "oh yeah", "I watch parts of a lot of Southland games on TV" and "Ya wanna bet" ?

I've made it pretty clear what is not tough about the Southland conference schedule circa Fall 2021, I see no reason to delve into the CAA schedule since nothing of substance has changed in conference scheduling - it consists of the same 12 teams and the same scheduling methodology. This is also not just about the Southland vs, CAA; the number of teams ultimately selected from the heavily depleted Southland effects a number of other conferences just as much to include the SoCon, Big Sky and Big South.

Now, if William & Mary loses this weekend and ends up 6-5, then there really are only three teams from the CAA that will have 7 or more Division 1 wins, and IMHO would be strong candidates for playoff selection. Without a doubt, both the 2nd and 3rd place CAA team should get an at large bid before any Southland Teams. If W&M wins Saturday and ends up 7-4, I would argue that they also deserve an at large bid before any Southland team gets an at-large bid.

I'll make one more argument for selecting the 7 win CAA teams over a second Southland team. Over the past 10 years, when there were 11 teams in the Southland, including SHSU, UCA and SFA, 3rd or 4th place 7-4 CAA teams have been beating seeded Southland Conference Champions in the playoffs on a regular basis.

What kind of "counter argument" are you looking for? We're comparing apples to oranges because we don't play common schedules, or anything close to it. No one will argue that our league is depleted from the usual lineup, including the loss of the defending national champions, but I'll put our top three (or four) up against anybody in the CAA and we'll be competitive, if not win. We've played Villanova in the recent past ( 2019, and won) so we're familiar with a lot of their current personnel. They are no better than UIW or Nicholls as far as I'm concerned and if McNeese had a little more offensive punch, I'd throw them in there as well — especially defensively. We all play FBS games, and some of us play multiple FBS games, and we also had to play each other twice this fall.

SLU has played seven of the first 10 games on the road, including the first five, and have a three-point road loss at FBS Louisiana Tech and a three point road loss at UIW. We could have easily won both games, and probably should have.

UIW is 9-2 with an FBS win and a blowout win over an eight win PVU team that many were touting as a possible at-large candidate from the SWAC. Nicholls State has a playoff caliber team but has an FBS loss to Memphis, a three-point FBS loss to UL-Lafayette (10-1 and ranked 22nd in FBS AP Poll), two losses to UIW and a loss to us. For that matter, McNeese is playing as well as anybody late in the season, especially defensively — if they had scheduled better early in the fall, we may be talking about them as an at-large or possible auto winner. Northwestern State and HBU are not very good — nobody will argue that — but the CAA has several bad teams as well.

When I look at the CAA, who has Rhode Island beaten that's any good? It's the same question we get asked. W&M beat Villanova but we know what they have, and the rest of the schedule is blah, including bad losses to Maine and Delaware, in addition to a blowout loss to UVA and a double-digit loss to JMU. I'm just not sure what your argument is for those teams?

[caribbeanhen]

Rhode Island and William & Mary are not any good

[lionsrking2]

Rhode Island and William & Mary are not any good

I know this and you know this.