Week 10 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

2 weeks to go and the playoff picture is clearing up a bit but there's still plenty to be decided. This week I broke down each conference again and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are but I also added a projected bracket to see if that spurs more conversation.

Again, the "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two still hit them. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but can only drop one more game at most. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
No teams were eliminated yesterday in the MVFC and it seems like 4 bids is the floor with a possibility for 5 and a remote chance at 6 if things play out right. I didn't put UNI in the "must win out" category since I think they have a shot at 6-5 but would probably need quite a bit of help.

Locks (1):
NDSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Should be in (3):
SDSU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
SIU (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Missouri St (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do (2):
South Dakota (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2
UNI (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Big Sky
Portland St helped soften the bubble by taking out Weber St before the Vikings are likely eliminated themselves in the last couple weeks. I thought Weber St might have a shot at 6-5 but their win over EWU lost a bit of luster yesterday and they're probably now sitting at 7th at best in the Big Sky pecking order and there's no way the conference gets that many teams in. The Big Sky seems like they'll get 5 in - no more and no less.

Locks (2):
Montana St (8-1, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
UC Davis (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Should be in (3):
Sacramento St (7-2, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EWU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Montana (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out (1):
Portland St (5-4, 3-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2


CAA
The CAA is certainly a mess outside of JMU and Nova but all of a sudden it looks like they could sneak a 4th team into the field after Rhode Island's win over UMass. I don't think W&M or URI are locks at 7-4 but they'd be in pretty good shape so both have some margin for error. There will probably be more mayhem in the last 2 weeks in the CAA so I'm gonna stick with just 3 bids for the conference.

Locks (1):
JMU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Should be in (1):
Villanova (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do (2):
William & Mary (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Rhode Island (6-3, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Must win out (1):
Delaware (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in neither of their last 2


SOCON
ETSU locked themselves into the field but there's still plenty to be decided amongst the 3 in the work left to do category. Mercer plays both ETSU and Chatty to close out so we'll see if they can hang in there. I would think any team that gets to 7 D1 wins in the SOCON is in pretty good shape so the conference could still get 4 but I think 3 is the most likely number and maybe even two if some upsets happen.

Locks (1):
ETSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their remaining 2

Work left to do (3):
Chattanooga (6-3, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
VMI (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Mercer (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in neither of their last 2


AQ7
Sam Houston is locked but that might be it out of the AQ7. EKU still has to play at SHSU and I don't see them making it at 7-4. SFA has a sub-D1 win so they most likely need to get to 8-3 to make it and they have a tough one at UCA next week. I contemplated including UCA in the "Must win out" category but the best they could do is 7-4 with a sub-D1 win and I don't think that'll be good enough. We'll see if anyone outside of SHSU is left here after next week.

Locks:
SHSU (8-0, 6-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out:
SFA (6-3, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EKU (6-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Southland
Regardless of whether they get the autobid both SLU and UIW just need one more win to lock themselves in and they both have a lay-up along with a tough game against Nicholls to finish up with. I don't believe Nicholls can get the autobid anymore unless they win out and HBU knocks off UIW (highly unlikely) but if they win out the Southland could still get 3. I think 2 is most likely though.

Should be in:
SLU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
UIW (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Must win out:
Nicholls (5-4, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
In the Big South the Kennesaw/Monmouth game the final week of the season will be big for the bubble - if KSU loses but finishes 9-2 that means the Big South probable gets 2. Massey gives Monmouth the slight edge but it's basically a toss-up. SEMO could still get the OVC auto at 5-6 if they win out (which would include a season finale win vs UTM and that could tighten the bubble since UTM would be in at 9-2 as an at-large. In the Patriot League the HC @ Fordham game will be big next week since the winner locks up the autobid - an HC win softens the bubble and a Fordham win tightens it since HC could have a shot at an at-large at 8-3. FAMU seems very likely to get to 9-2 and not make the SWAC title game. They'll be a wild card in the at-large discussion if that happens although their SoS is really not good.

Should be in:
Big South - KSU* (8-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
OVC - UTM* (7-1, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do:
Patriot - Holy Cross* (6-2, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out:
Big South - Monmouth (6-3, 5-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
SWAC - FAMU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both or their last 2


Projected bracket

So for locks and teams that should be in I've got 3 at-large from the MVFC, 4 from the Big Sky, and 1 each from the CAA, SOCON, and Southland. That leaves 3 left and I'm going to guess the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON each pick up one more. Here's my crack at the bracket projecting what will happen the last 2 weeks (which will no doubt be horribly wrong) - autobid denoted with an *:

Incarnate Word (8-3) @ UC Davis (9-2) to #1 Sam Houston* (10-0)
Davidson* (9-2) @ Kennesaw St* (10-1) to #8 East Tennessee St (10-1)

Northern Iowa (7-4) @ Montana (8-3) to #5 South Dakota St (9-2)
VMI (7-4) @ William & Mary (7-4) to #4 James Madison (10-1)

Chattanooga* (8-3) @ Southern Illinois (8-3) to #3 North Dakota St* (10-1)
Sacramento St (8-3) @ Southeastern Louisiana* (9-2) to #6 Eastern Washington (9-2)

Sacred Heart* (8-3) @ Holy Cross* (9-2) to #7 Villanova* (9-2)
UT-Martin* (10-1) @ Missouri St (7-4) to #2 Montana St* (10-1)

VMI and William & Mary would be my last 2 in and Rhode Island (7-4) would be my first out. Discuss away.

[kalm]

Fantastic work here, PC.

[HootyHoo]

gentlemen,

I think its time. I have waited patiently throught the season to declare that KSU should now get a seed if they win out. SE LA and Northern Iowa both lost this weekend opening up the 7-8 spots on the seed line to some competition. I'm sure many of you have many well thought out arguments as to why KSU doesn't serve a seed such as "ThEy DoNt pLaY ANyBOdY" and i look forward to hearing them.

Hooty

[Daytripper]

gentlemen,

I think its time. I have waited patiently throught the season to declare that KSU should now get a seed if they win out. SE LA and Northern Iowa both lost this weekend opening up the 7-8 spots on the seed line to some competition. I'm sure many of you have many well thought out arguments as to why KSU doesn't serve a seed such as "ThEy DoNt pLaY ANyBOdY" and i look forward to hearing them.

Hooty

That SELA loss for fortuitous for you. UNI wasn't going to get a seed anyway.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Would love to see FAMU get in as an at-large.

[Professor Chaos]

gentlemen,

I think its time. I have waited patiently throught the season to declare that KSU should now get a seed if they win out. SE LA and Northern Iowa both lost this weekend opening up the 7-8 spots on the seed line to some competition. I'm sure many of you have many well thought out arguments as to why KSU doesn't serve a seed such as "ThEy DoNt pLaY ANyBOdY" and i look forward to hearing them.

Hooty
I'm sure you'll disagree with me Hooty but I think Kennesaw needs a lot of help to get seeded. First, they'll need ETSU to lose another game (possible sine they still have Mercer left to play). They they'll have to hope the Big Sky doesn't produce a 3rd seed which is possible because all 5 of those teams could win 9+ games and 3 of them almost have to get there unless there are some big upsets. If Delaware can knock off Villanova that would help as well. Then there's potential 8-3 MVFC teams like SIU and Missouri St that could push for those last couple seeds as well. Blame Wofford and Jacksonville St for stinking it up this year... Kennesaw needed those OOC wins to hold up and they just aren't.

[Professor Chaos]

Would love to see FAMU get in as an at-large.
Massey has them 111 out of 128 in the FCS in SOS this year. I think that weak schedule will just be too much for them to overcome. It was either Sam Herder or Craig Haley who tweeted about some previous teams with 8+ wins who've missed out on at-large bids due to super weak schedules. Lehigh at 10-1 in 2012 comes to mind although that was only a 20 team field with 10 at-large teams I believe.

[caribbeanhen]

Outstanding chaos Professor

Anyone who watched William & Mary yesterday will tell you the playoffs should hold no spot for them

An ugly 24-3 loss to Delaware where they had no shot at moving the ball ....ugly

I know they still might get in but my how the CAA has fallen

What is status of MEAC? Not enough teams to qualify?

[CorrosionDoc]

If using the Massey ratings, Montana State should be favored in both of their remaining games, while Montana should be favored by only one (unless I'm missing something).

[MSUBobcat]

If using the Massey ratings, Montana State should be favored in both of their remaining games, while Montana should be favored by only one (unless I'm missing something).

I think PC uses the Massey prediction, not ranking, to determine who the favorite is. It gives a decent boost to home field advantage. It gives MSU a 42% chance to win and a predicted score of 20-23. I could be way off on that tho.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2021/5042

[Professor Chaos]

Outstanding chaos Professor

Anyone who watched William & Mary yesterday will tell you the playoffs should hold no spot for them

An ugly 24-3 loss to Delaware where they had no shot at moving the ball ....ugly

I know they still might get in but my how the CAA has fallen

What is status of MEAC? Not enough teams to qualify?
Their champ still goes to the Celebration Bowl so no autobid for the MEAC as they were potentially going to get in the spring.


I think PC uses the Massey prediction, not ranking, to determine who the favorite is. It gives a decent boost to home field advantage. It gives MSU a 42% chance to win and a predicted score of 20-23. I could be way off on that tho.

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf2021/5042
Yeah, that's what I was basing it off of. FWIW, I'm taking Montana St to win that game in my projected bracket because I have a "Ron Swanson permit" and I can do what I want! :D

[Ivytalk]

Professor Chaos well on his way to repeat as AGS World FCS Talk Champeen!xnodxxbowx

[kalm]

I'm sure you'll disagree with me Hooty but I think Kennesaw needs a lot of help to get seeded. First, they'll need ETSU to lose another game (possible sine they still have Mercer left to play). They they'll have to hope the Big Sky doesn't produce a 3rd seed which is possible because all 5 of those teams could win 9+ games and 3 of them almost have to get there unless there are some big upsets. If Delaware can knock off Villanova that would help as well. Then there's potential 8-3 MVFC teams like SIU and Missouri St that could push for those last couple seeds as well. Blame Wofford and Jacksonville St for stinking it up this year... Kennesaw needed those OOC wins to hold up and they just aren't.

Montana can really throw a monkey wrench into things by winning out. MSU still gets their seed at 9-2 but should they over Montana or EWU with a split between the three teams. Or a 9-2 Davis with a loss to EWU but who neither the cats or Griz have played?

Then there’s Sac to further throw confusion.

Love this time of year!

[uofmman1122]

Montana can really throw a monkey wrench into things by winning out. MSU still gets their seed at 9-2 but should they over Montana or EWU with a split between the three teams. Or a 9-2 Davis with a loss to EWU but who neither the cats or Griz have played?

Then there’s Sac to further throw confusion.

Love this time of year!
It would be very much like the end of 2019, where MSU, Montana, Weber, and Sac all split among themselves.

No idea how they'd sort that out, but I have a feeling this might be the tightest the top 8 seeds have been in over a decade.

[Chalupa Batman]

Professor Chaos well on his way to repeat as AGS World FCS Talk Champeen!xnodxxbowx

As Lee Corso would say…. Not so fast my friend! Full Ride is right up there too.

[Chalupa Batman]

gentlemen,

I think its time. I have waited patiently throught the season to declare that KSU should now get a seed if they win out. SE LA and Northern Iowa both lost this weekend opening up the 7-8 spots on the seed line to some competition. I'm sure many of you have many well thought out arguments as to why KSU doesn't serve a seed such as "ThEy DoNt pLaY ANyBOdY" and i look forward to hearing them.

Hooty

I don’t know man. Should everyone win out, NDSU, JMU, SH, SDSU, Montana State, UC Davis, ETSU are all locks to be ahead of you for seeds. SIU, EWU, Villanova are comfortably ahead of you. Montana and Missouri State could easily jump jump in front of you too.

[MUHAWKS]

gentlemen,

I think its time. I have waited patiently throught the season to declare that KSU should now get a seed if they win out. SE LA and Northern Iowa both lost this weekend opening up the 7-8 spots on the seed line to some competition. I'm sure many of you have many well thought out arguments as to why KSU doesn't serve a seed such as "ThEy DoNt pLaY ANyBOdY" and i look forward to hearing them.

Hooty

We are coming for you!! If for some reason you guys best us, I will join forces but we are coming!! 11/20 BIG SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!! Really looking forward to this, should be one of the most anticipated games of the week and a chance for us to right our wrongs.

[HootyHoo]

We are coming for you!! If for some reason you guys best us, I will join forces but we are coming!! 11/20 BIG SOUTH CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!! Really looking forward to this, should be one of the most anticipated games of the week and a chance for us to right our wrongs.

Soon. KSU-Monmouth are 2-2 all time and our final showdown will decide who is the superior program.

[WileECoyote06]

Crazy that both Kennesaw and UT-Martin may finish undefeated against FCS foes. IMO one of the two will get the 7 or 8 seed; but stranger things have happened.

[Professor Chaos]

Crazy that both Kennesaw and UT-Martin may finish undefeated against FCS foes. IMO one of the two will get the 7 or 8 seed; but stranger things have happened.
It does seem pretty crazy to think that two 10-1 teams with only an FBS loss would be unseeded but the thing that gives me pause is if Kennesaw loses to Monmouth or UTM loses to SEMO I don't think they're necessarily even locks for an at-large. I'd say it's highly unlikely either are left out at 9-2 but the fact that it's questionable makes me think that they're not going to be in the seeding conversation even at 10-1 unless there's a bunch of upsets these last two weeks. A seeded team should not be one loss away from the bubble.

[kdinva]

I don’t know man. Should everyone win out, NDSU, JMU, SH, SDSU, Montana State, UC Davis, ETSU are all locks to be ahead of you for seeds. SIU, EWU, Villanova are comfortably ahead of you. Montana and Missouri State could easily jump jump in front of you too.

What about Jax. State? xslapfightx

[HootyHoo]

It does seem pretty crazy to think that two 10-1 teams with only an FBS loss would be unseeded but the thing that gives me pause is if Kennesaw loses to Monmouth or UTM loses to SEMO I don't think they're necessarily even locks for an at-large. I'd say it's highly unlikely either are left out at 9-2 but the fact that it's questionable makes me think that they're not going to be in the seeding conversation even at 10-1 unless there's a bunch of upsets these last two weeks. A seeded team should not be one loss away from the bubble.

The only reason those teams are one loss away from the bubble is the double standard imposed upon them by the Valley/Big Sky aristocracy. UT-Martin, KSU, and ETSU have had great seasons ansd deserve to be competing for a spot on the seed line. Instead, they are made to scavenge for scraps while 3 loss teams are assured of their spots.

If you are a Sam Houston or Jacksonville St fan/alum, be glad you are leaving this mickey mouse league for greener pastures. Why fight an uphill battle for credibility just to be given a first round game and then be rewarded with a second round road trip to Bozeman? Atleast, in the FBS the Haves are legitimate national brands who make millions of dollars, not a bunch of has been and never will bes playing in front of 2,000 people.

[Professor Chaos]

The only reason those teams are one loss away from the bubble is the double standard imposed upon them by the Valley/Big Sky aristocracy. UT-Martin, KSU, and ETSU have had great seasons ansd deserve to be competing for a spot on the seed line. Instead, they are made to scavenge for scraps while 3 loss teams are assured of their spots.

If you are a Sam Houston or Jacksonville St fan/alum, be glad you are leaving this mickey mouse league for greener pastures. Why fight an uphill battle for credibility just to be given a first round game and then be rewarded with a second round road trip to Bozeman? Atleast, in the FBS the Haves are legitimate national brands who make millions of dollars, not a bunch of has been and never will bes playing in front of 2,000 people.
Right, this power conference oligarchy scenario is sooo much better in the FBS. xrolleyesx

Jacksonville St is the last school that should be pissed about where/when they were seeded in the FCS playoffs.

Bottom line is SOS matters... either accept it or continue to get pissed off every Selection Sunday if that's your preference.

[FUBeAR]

SOS matters... either accept it.In this usage, is SOS an objective or subjective metric?

If objective…
…how is it calculated?
…is it a single definitive metric calculated by 1 source or multiple sources with varying formulae for deriving their calculations?
…does it include historical data from prior season(s) that may have little relevance to current ‘strengths’


If subjective, who decides whom must accept someone else’s subjective opinion?

[WileECoyote06]

The only reason those teams are one loss away from the bubble is the double standard imposed upon them by the Valley/Big Sky aristocracy. UT-Martin, KSU, and ETSU have had great seasons ansd deserve to be competing for a spot on the seed line. Instead, they are made to scavenge for scraps while 3 loss teams are assured of their spots.

If you are a Sam Houston or Jacksonville St fan/alum, be glad you are leaving this mickey mouse league for greener pastures. Why fight an uphill battle for credibility just to be given a first round game and then be rewarded with a second round road trip to Bozeman? Atleast, in the FBS the Haves are legitimate national brands who make millions of dollars, not a bunch of has been and never will bes playing in front of 2,000 people.

Quite honestly, I'm surprised yall aren't begging to go with them! xlolx

In my opinion, neither UTM or Kennesaw State are on the bubble. They may not get seeds at 9-2; but they aren't in danger of missing the playoffs at this point either. At 8-3, Kennesaw is in a tenuous position, but they have a more dominant win over Wofford than ETSU; and a similar level of dominance in a win over Jacksonville State as Sam Houston State. Both games should form a basis for comparison.

[Professor Chaos]

In this usage, is SOS an objective or subjective metric?

If objective…
…how is it calculated?
…is it a single definitive metric calculated by 1 source or multiple sources with varying formulae for deriving their calculations?
…does it include historical data from prior season(s) that may have little relevance to current ‘strengths’


If subjective, who decides whom must accept someone else’s subjective opinion?
SOS is an objective measure. I believe the selection committee still uses the SRS (Simple Ratings System) as their primary tool to evaluate SOS. The problem with that is they never release the SRS until after the field is announced so we can't really use it to try to predict the field and it is seemingly very much an "under construction" formula.

I use Massey and Sagarin ratings to measure SOS. Massey (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings) is a little easier to use since you can get the FCS only rank. He's got a SoS column that shows a team's current SOS rank and then a SSF column that shows what it'll be by the end of the season. Sagarin (https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/) has a "SCHEDL(RANK)" column but it shows it for all D1 so it's tougher to evaluate a particular team's SOS with the rest of the subdivision but useful when doing a direct comparison with just a few teams.

If you listen to the committee chair interview on the selection show every year they'll reference SOS as one of their main tools used to evaluate teams. Who did you play and who did you beat?

[BEAR]

I contemplated including UCA in the "Must win out" category but the best they could do is 7-4 with a sub-D1 win and I don't think that'll be good enough. We'll see if anyone outside of SHSU is left here after next week.

That EKU loss really hurt the Bears. UCA led 35-13 halfway through the third. No idea what happened. It's like they just left at halftime. I believe if they had won that game they would be in the conversation as an at large. Hard to beat an FBS, the FCS national champion, and an MVFC team that is playing really good football (and we even had a chance to win that one). But for now even winning out it's an outsiders chance...but I personally say not really. The Bears will learn to win next season. xlolx

[FUBeAR]

SOS is an objective measure. I believe the selection committee still uses the SRS (Simple Ratings System) as their primary tool to evaluate SOS. The problem with that is they never release the SRS until after the field is announced so we can't really use it to try to predict the field and it is seemingly very much an "under construction" formula.

I use Massey and Sagarin ratings to measure SOS. Massey (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings) is a little easier to use since you can get the FCS only rank. He's got a SoS column that shows a team's current SOS rank and then a SSF column that shows what it'll be by the end of the season. Sagarin (https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/) has a "SCHEDL(RANK)" column but it shows it for all D1 so it's tougher to evaluate a particular team's SOS with the rest of the subdivision but useful when doing a direct comparison with just a few teams.

If you listen to the committee chair interview on the selection show every year they'll reference SOS as one of their main tools used to evaluate teams. Who did you play and who did you beat?So…the last SRS calculated, 11/23/19, had 9-1 Dartmouth at #7. Out of the highly insular Ivy League, they played 2 non-scholarship Teams & a 4-8 Patriot League Team.

Does anyone in the entire universe of FCS Football think Dartmouth had a strong SOS that propelled them to their #7 Ranking?

It’s balderdash. No better or worse than FBS/CFP…but still a truckload of hooey.

….and FUBeAR does NOT accept it & WILL continue to be pissed off on Selection Sunday. #Resist

[Professor Chaos]

That EKU loss really hurt the Bears. UCA led 35-13 halfway through the third. No idea what happened. It's like they just left at halftime. I believe if they had won that game they would be in the conversation as an at large. Hard to beat an FBS, the FCS national champion, and an MVFC team that is playing really good football (and we even had a chance to win that one). But for now even winning out it's an outsiders chance...but I personally say not really. The Bears will learn to win next season. xlolx
Agreed. Had they held on against EKU it would probably be an elimination game this week between SFA and UCA.

[HootyHoo]

SOS is an objective measure. I believe the selection committee still uses the SRS (Simple Ratings System) as their primary tool to evaluate SOS. The problem with that is they never release the SRS until after the field is announced so we can't really use it to try to predict the field and it is seemingly very much an "under construction" formula.

I use Massey and Sagarin ratings to measure SOS. Massey (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings) is a little easier to use since you can get the FCS only rank. He's got a SoS column that shows a team's current SOS rank and then a SSF column that shows what it'll be by the end of the season. Sagarin (https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/college-football-team-ratings-2021/) has a "SCHEDL(RANK)" column but it shows it for all D1 so it's tougher to evaluate a particular team's SOS with the rest of the subdivision but useful when doing a direct comparison with just a few teams.

If you listen to the committee chair interview on the selection show every year they'll reference SOS as one of their main tools used to evaluate teams. Who did you play and who did you beat?

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...

[HootyHoo]

Kennesaw State ranked #5 in the Coaches Poll. Thank you very much.

[Professor Chaos]

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...
xlolx

Fine with me dude... your guys might even win. You can't hide behind weak opponents in the playoffs (mostly). This NDSU team will need some breaks to win another title and if the breaks go against them vs a good opponent chances are they're not good enough to overcome it.

All of that has nothing to do with the fact that, for the most part, Big Sky and MVFC teams with more losses than Kennesaw will be looked at more favorably when it come seeding because of SOS.

[WileECoyote06]

So…the last SRS calculated, 11/23/19, had 9-1 Dartmouth at #7. Out of the highly insular Ivy League, they played 2 non-scholarship Teams & a 4-8 Patriot League Team.

Does anyone in the entire universe of FCS Football think Dartmouth had a strong SOS that propelled them to their #7 Ranking?

It’s balderdash. No better or worse than FBS/CFP…but still a truckload of hooey.

….and FUBeAR does NOT accept it & WILL continue to be pissed off on Selection Sunday. #Resist

You're a funny bear. xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

So…the last SRS calculated, 11/23/19, had 9-1 Dartmouth at #7. Out of the highly insular Ivy League, they played 2 non-scholarship Teams & a 4-8 Patriot League Team.

Does anyone in the entire universe of FCS Football think Dartmouth had a strong SOS that propelled them to their #7 Ranking?

It’s balderdash. No better or worse than FBS/CFP…but still a truckload of hooey.

….and FUBeAR does NOT accept it & WILL continue to be pissed off on Selection Sunday. #Resist

just watch some games FuBear

I was like you once, one night I saw an Ivy League game and was like what the heck in Sussex Country is going on here. Lol

Dartmouth has some talent!

#7 is pretty close for that year

just remember, FCS minus a half dozen teams are very beatable

[FUBeAR]

just watch some games FuBear

I was like you once, one night I saw an Ivy League game and was like what the heck in Sussex Country is going on here. Lol

Dartmouth has some talent!

#7 is pretty close for that year

just remember, FCS minus a half dozen teams are very beatableLOL - If I’m not attending an FCS game (or, on rare occasions, 2 FCS games) every Saturday, I usually have 4 screens showing FCS games on all day/night long. When I’m attending a game, I limit it to 2 screens (iPad & phone). I also watch all SoCon games on replay during the week - so I can really break down the play/strengths/weaknesses of each Team. I wish ESPN3/+ would provide a ‘Cowboy Clicker’ function….I would be in heaven.

And I’ve caught a few of the Ivy Friday night games…even went to Yale when Mercer played up there in ‘18.

So…not really a knock on the Ivies. Top 2 or 3 Ivies might be more-or-less competitive in CAA or SoCon…and Big Sky…and middle of the pack MVFC. But, I was told SRS is what determines SOS and “SOS matters” for determining seeds. Welp…per SRS, Dartmouth woulda been #7 Seed in 2019 …. because “SOS matters” … and there is no way that schedule would REALLY be in the Top half of FCS…even the non-schollie Teams they played had awful records.

So…again…SRS, subjective (it must be subjective or a really f’d up formula given the Dartmouth example) SOS, and Seeding in FCS is GARBAGE.

[Professor Chaos]

Projected field (as of now) based on this week's AGS Poll consensus:

Autobids
1. Sam Houston (1)
2. Montana St (2)
3. NDSU (5)
4. Villanova (7)
5. ETSU (9)
6. Kennesaw St (12)
7. UTM (16)
8. Incarnate Word (17)
9. Holy Cross (29)
10. Davidson (33)
11. Sacred Heart (NR)

At-large
1. JMU (3)
2. SDSU (4)
3. UC Davis (6)
4. EWU (8)
5. Montana (10)
6. Missouri St (11)
7. Sac St (13)
8. SLU (14)
9. SIU (15)
10. South Dakota (18)
11. UNI (19)
12. Chattanooga (20)
13. VMI (23)

First four out
Mercer (24)
William & Mary (26)
Monmouth (27)
SFA (28)

[Preferred Walk-On]

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...

I am begging for this as well!

[Preferred Walk-On]

Kennesaw State ranked #5 in the Coaches Poll. Thank you very much.

#Vindicated

[mvfcfan]

I think Northern Iowa's and South Dakota's playoff chances come down to Saturday. Win they're in, lose they're out (I don't think USD will win in Fargo). As bad as Illinois State has been this season they have put both UNI and USD in bad situations.

I think MSU and SIU will both win one more (vs Dixie St and Indy St) and make it in. SDSU might need one more themselves since they played Lindenwood, which doesn't count as a win.

[WestCoastAggie]

2 weeks to go and the playoff picture is clearing up a bit but there's still plenty to be decided. This week I broke down each conference again and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are but I also added a projected bracket to see if that spurs more conversation.

Again, the "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two still hit them. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but can only drop one more game at most. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
No teams were eliminated yesterday in the MVFC and it seems like 4 bids is the floor with a possibility for 5 and a remote chance at 6 if things play out right. I didn't put UNI in the "must win out" category since I think they have a shot at 6-5 but would probably need quite a bit of help.

Locks (1):
NDSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Should be in (3):
SDSU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
SIU (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
Missouri St (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do (2):
South Dakota (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2
UNI (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Big Sky
Portland St helped soften the bubble by taking out Weber St before the Vikings are likely eliminated themselves in the last couple weeks. I thought Weber St might have a shot at 6-5 but their win over EWU lost a bit of luster yesterday and they're probably now sitting at 7th at best in the Big Sky pecking order and there's no way the conference gets that many teams in. The Big Sky seems like they'll get 5 in - no more and no less.

Locks (2):
Montana St (8-1, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
UC Davis (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Should be in (3):
Sacramento St (7-2, 6-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EWU (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2
Montana (7-2, 4-2) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out (1):
Portland St (5-4, 3-2) - Favored in neither of their last 2


CAA
The CAA is certainly a mess outside of JMU and Nova but all of a sudden it looks like they could sneak a 4th team into the field after Rhode Island's win over UMass. I don't think W&M or URI are locks at 7-4 but they'd be in pretty good shape so both have some margin for error. There will probably be more mayhem in the last 2 weeks in the CAA so I'm gonna stick with just 3 bids for the conference.

Locks (1):
JMU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Should be in (1):
Villanova (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do (2):
William & Mary (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Rhode Island (6-3, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Must win out (1):
Delaware (5-4, 3-3) - Favored in neither of their last 2


SOCON
ETSU locked themselves into the field but there's still plenty to be decided amongst the 3 in the work left to do category. Mercer plays both ETSU and Chatty to close out so we'll see if they can hang in there. I would think any team that gets to 7 D1 wins in the SOCON is in pretty good shape so the conference could still get 4 but I think 3 is the most likely number and maybe even two if some upsets happen.

Locks (1):
ETSU (8-1, 5-1) - Favored in both of their remaining 2

Work left to do (3):
Chattanooga (6-3, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
VMI (6-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
Mercer (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in neither of their last 2


AQ7
Sam Houston is locked but that might be it out of the AQ7. EKU still has to play at SHSU and I don't see them making it at 7-4. SFA has a sub-D1 win so they most likely need to get to 8-3 to make it and they have a tough one at UCA next week. I contemplated including UCA in the "Must win out" category but the best they could do is 7-4 with a sub-D1 win and I don't think that'll be good enough. We'll see if anyone outside of SHSU is left here after next week.

Locks:
SHSU (8-0, 6-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out:
SFA (6-3, 2-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
EKU (6-3, 3-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Southland
Regardless of whether they get the autobid both SLU and UIW just need one more win to lock themselves in and they both have a lay-up along with a tough game against Nicholls to finish up with. I don't believe Nicholls can get the autobid anymore unless they win out and HBU knocks off UIW (highly unlikely) but if they win out the Southland could still get 3. I think 2 is most likely though.

Should be in:
SLU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both of their last 2
UIW (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in 1 of their last 2

Must win out:
Nicholls (5-4, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their last 2


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
In the Big South the Kennesaw/Monmouth game the final week of the season will be big for the bubble - if KSU loses but finishes 9-2 that means the Big South probable gets 2. Massey gives Monmouth the slight edge but it's basically a toss-up. SEMO could still get the OVC auto at 5-6 if they win out (which would include a season finale win vs UTM and that could tighten the bubble since UTM would be in at 9-2 as an at-large. In the Patriot League the HC @ Fordham game will be big next week since the winner locks up the autobid - an HC win softens the bubble and a Fordham win tightens it since HC could have a shot at an at-large at 8-3. FAMU seems very likely to get to 9-2 and not make the SWAC title game. They'll be a wild card in the at-large discussion if that happens although their SoS is really not good.

Should be in:
Big South - KSU* (8-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their last 2
OVC - UTM* (7-1, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Work left to do:
Patriot - Holy Cross* (6-2, 3-0) - Favored in both of their last 2

Must win out:
Big South - Monmouth (6-3, 5-0) - Favored in both of their last 2
SWAC - FAMU (7-2, 5-1) - Favored in both or their last 2


Projected bracket

So for locks and teams that should be in I've got 3 at-large from the MVFC, 4 from the Big Sky, and 1 each from the CAA, SOCON, and Southland. That leaves 3 left and I'm going to guess the MVFC, CAA, and SOCON each pick up one more. Here's my crack at the bracket projecting what will happen the last 2 weeks (which will no doubt be horribly wrong) - autobid denoted with an *:

Incarnate Word (8-3) @ UC Davis (9-2) to #1 Sam Houston* (10-0)
Davidson* (9-2) @ Kennesaw St* (10-1) to #8 East Tennessee St (10-1)

Northern Iowa (7-4) @ Montana (8-3) to #5 South Dakota St (9-2)
VMI (7-4) @ William & Mary (7-4) to #4 James Madison (10-1)

Chattanooga* (8-3) @ Southern Illinois (8-3) to #3 North Dakota St* (10-1)
Sacramento St (8-3) @ Southeastern Louisiana* (9-2) to #6 Eastern Washington (9-2)

Sacred Heart* (8-3) @ Holy Cross* (9-2) to #7 Villanova* (9-2)
UT-Martin* (10-1) @ Missouri St (7-4) to #2 Montana St* (10-1)

VMI and William & Mary would be my last 2 in and Rhode Island (7-4) would be my first out. Discuss away.

Who would be your "First 4 Out?"

[Professor Chaos]

Who would be your "First 4 Out?"
Good question.... really tough to say since I'm projecting what will happen the last 2 weeks but I'd say you could probably add (in no particular order) FAMU (9-2), Monmouth (7-4), and South Dakota (6-5) to that group with URI (7-4).

[NorCalJack]

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...

You really are a HOOT.

[Mocs123]

I think I'd quite like to see Kennesaw State and NDSU play in the playoffs. Hooty is always talking about how KSU is underestimated. If KSU wins - nobody can give the Owls crap about playing a cupcake OCC schedule and being over-ranked again. If NDSU wins, Hooty can't go own about the Owl's lack of respect.

As for my Mocs, if we get in (and we still need to win our last two games), I've already realized that due to regionalization we'll likely play KSU or UT-Martin.

[BurialGround]

Soon. KSU-Monmouth are 2-2 all time and our final showdown will decide who is the superior program.

What? We beat them 4 times in a row before they ever beat us. We're 4-2 against Monmouth.

[caribbeanhen]

LOL - If I’m not attending an FCS game (or, on rare occasions, 2 FCS games) every Saturday, I usually have 4 screens showing FCS games on all day/night long. When I’m attending a game, I limit it to 2 screens (iPad & phone). I also watch all SoCon games on replay during the week - so I can really break down the play/strengths/weaknesses of each Team. I wish ESPN3/+ would provide a ‘Cowboy Clicker’ function….I would be in heaven.

And I’ve caught a few of the Ivy Friday night games…even went to Yale when Mercer played up there in ‘18.

So…not really a knock on the Ivies. Top 2 or 3 Ivies might be more-or-less competitive in CAA or SoCon…and Big Sky…and middle of the pack MVFC. But, I was told SRS is what determines SOS and “SOS matters” for determining seeds. Welp…per SRS, Dartmouth woulda been #7 Seed in 2019 …. because “SOS matters” … and there is no way that schedule would REALLY be in the Top half of FCS…even the non-schollie Teams they played had awful records.

So…again…SRS, subjective (it must be subjective or a really f’d up formula given the Dartmouth example) SOS, and Seeding in FCS is GARBAGE.

I also watch as many as I can but your doing better than me. I also use Flo and ESPN + during week

Dartmouth, Princeton, Harvard and Yale on a good day challenge Nova in CAA

and give JMU best game they've had all year minus Nova

They have better players and better coaching than the majority of CAA

CAA is now like the Patriot league was 10 years ago

Patriot is now Div2

[Chalupa Batman]

Looked at Portland State's schedule, didn't realize they are only playing 8 FCS games (plus two FBS and one D2). Just like Mercer in the SOCON, their only FCS games come in their conference schedule. If they win out they would be 6-2, but with a nice 3 game winning streak against Weber, Sac St., & EWU. Those final 3 wins would probably be strong enough to get them a bid but it might not be a slam dunk. Unlikely they do win out but you never know.

[Katfan]

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...
Be careful what you wish for! Been there done that much rather have them at home!

[Daytripper]

Be careful what you wish for! Been there done that much rather have them at home!

Exactly. Fargo is not for amateurs. Most teams, like the proverbial virgin, aren't really ready for the first time.

[BurialGround]

Be careful what you wish for! Been there done that much rather have them at home!

As always, Hooty is out to ruffle all your feathers (and succeeding, somehow). No KSU fan that knows football (and isn't trolling) thinks we have a team to compete with teams like NDSU and SDSU this year. Maybe a few years ago when we had a real coaching staff on defense. Not saying we would've won, obviously, as we lost to SDSU one of those years. But give them a game, maybe. We'll have to learn how to play defense again before competing with the big boys.

[HootyHoo]

As always, Hooty is out to ruffle all your feathers (and succeeding, somehow). No KSU fan that knows football (and isn't trolling) thinks we have a team to compete with teams like NDSU and SDSU this year. Maybe a few years ago when we had a real coaching staff on defense. Not saying we would've won, obviously, as we lost to SDSU one of those years. But give them a game, maybe. We'll have to learn how to play defense again before competing with the big boys.

The Owls aren't that bad on defense. Have you watched Navy this season? Newberry ain't doing to hot. Lets, be honest Burial, you and the rest of the basketball crew always think the football team is terrible.

[FUBeAR]

the basketball crew always think the football team is terrible.hmmm…that sounds familiar…same issue at Furman. Haven’t seen that at Mercer (yet) though.

Honestly, from what I saw on the court when Mercer was playing KSU in hoops, I would have thought the owlets would have dropped Basketball by now. No?

[HootyHoo]

hmmm…that sounds familiar…same issue at Furman. Haven’t seen that at Mercer (yet) though.

Honestly, from what I saw on the court when Mercer was playing KSU in hoops, I would have thought the owlets would have dropped Basketball by now. No?

Haha i'm sure we've thought about it. Its bad, i think the football team has won more games this season than our basketball program has in the last two combined. That's interesting to hear about Furman's fan base. Idk why there is a schism amongst the sports.

[caribbeanhen]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU

Villanova is right there imo. Yes, they had that hiccup against W&M but they've brought it against the better competition on their schedule. That includes hanging tough with a PSU team in Happy Valley. Depending on how the bracket breaks down geographically, 'Nova could have a reasonable path to the semifinals....

[caribbeanhen]

Villanova is right there imo. Yes, they had that hiccup against W&M but they've brought it against the better competition on their schedule. That includes hanging tough with a PSU team in Happy Valley. Depending on how the bracket breaks down geographically, 'Nova could have a reasonable path to the semifinals....

left Nova out because the CAA is bad, But I like QB Smith, kid is a winner

[HootyHoo]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU

Kennesaw State is about to break the inner circle.

[caribbeanhen]

Kennesaw State is about to break the inner circle.

How can you be so sure?

[HootyHoo]

How can you be so sure?

It is our destiny. The path is now clear. All obstacles have been removed. First, it was Liberty and Coastal Carolina leaving the Big South that gave the program room to breathe. Now James Madison, Sam Houston, Davey Crockett, and Jacksonville State have jumped ship too. Literally any significant program outside of the Big Sky/Valley Oligarchy are gone. None are left to oppose us.

[FUBeAR]

It is our destiny. The path is now clear. All obstacles have been removed. First, it was Liberty and Coastal Carolina leaving the Big South that gave the program room to breathe. Now James Madison, Sam Houston, Davey Crockett, and Jacksonville State have jumped ship too. Literally any significant program outside of the Big Sky/Valley Oligarchy are gone. None are left to oppose us.
FUBeAR loved your work in this role.

https://c.tenor.com/8parvpeqH3EAAAAC/monty-python-im-invincible.gif

[caribbeanhen]

It is our destiny. The path is now clear. All obstacles have been removed

It’s gonna be a Bright bright sunshiny day......

I detect this part of your post is really a song. You’re busted

[uofmman1122]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU
Very much disagree here, having seen a lot of FCS football this season.

I think it's more wide open than it's been in over a decade.

[caribbeanhen]

Very much disagree here, having seen a lot of FCS football this season.

I think it's more wide open than it's been in over a decade.

that point is well taken seeing how the Bison are actually capable of losing a football game now

[Preferred Walk-On]

that point is well taken seeing how the Bison are actually capable of losing a football game now

I think it is a combination platter. Sure, the Bison don't have Trey Lance, but it is my opinion that more teams over the FCS landscape have also improved. I agree with uofmman1122 that the field is more wide open than it has been in a decade; however, the past decade has been no less open than the FCS was during the entire 1990's either. Even though I would like to see the Bison win it every year, I am excited by the parity of this year's playoffs and looking forward to it.

I am sad to see some of those improved FCS teams go, but it is just like any other profession...you get good, exceed expectations, then you are promoted to the next rank (see FCS -> FBS coaches). The how and why of promotion may vary, but it is usually not s**t schools that advance to the next level...it is the schools winning stuff at their current level and building the resources and equity to move up. Even so, I don't think the FCS will be diluted, as other teams will undoubtedly take their place.

[caribbeanhen]

I think it is a combination platter. Sure, the Bison don't have Trey Lance, but it is my opinion that more teams over the FCS landscape have also improved. I agree with uofmman1122 that the field is more wide open than it has been in a decade; however, the past decade has been no less open than the FCS was during the entire 1990's either. Even though I would like to see the Bison win it every year, I am excited by the parity of this year's playoffs and looking forward to it.

I am sad to see some of those improved FCS teams go, but it is just like any other profession...you get good, exceed expectations, then you are promoted to the next rank (see FCS -> FBS coaches). The how and why of promotion may vary, but it is usually not s**t schools that advance to the next level...it is the schools winning stuff at their current level and building the resources and equity to move up. Even so, I don't think the FCS will be diluted, as other teams will undoubtedly take their place.

Full time,

please

list your teams you think have a legit shot to win title

[Preferred Walk-On]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU


that point is well taken seeing how the Bison are actually capable of losing a football game now


Full time,

please

list your teams you think have a legit shot to win title

If the Bison are capable of losing, why are they still on the list? The Dukes lost by 1 pt to Villanova, and they are off the list (as a long shot)? The Jackrabbits lose to the Panthers...at home, still on the list?

What I am pointing out here is that in a one-and-done, the best team can lose and some other team can win the championship, and I think this possibility is more realistic this year than in recent years. Heck, even Delaware was a semifinalist last year. Sam Houston had to escape 4 games last year to become champs, and they did that because good teams do that. Are you saying that the Bearkats won the championship last year, because the Bison were beatable, because the Jackrabbits QB went down early, because the Dukes got lackadaisical after blowing the Bearkats doors off in the 1st half, because the Hawks simply ran out of time, or was it because Sam Houston actually improved, especially on defense? I might argue the latter. How about the Aggies, have they improved this year? What about the Buccaneers, stout defense and control the ball/clock? Heck, what about the Bears (take your pick)? I think you could pick anyone in the top 10-15 as having a legit chance at a title (or title game showing). 16-20 (minus the Ivies only because they do not participate) could win a game in the playoffs, even against a top 5. Maybe my opinion will change after this week, or maybe the field will be even more open. Who knows?

Unlike recent years, I would be a bit surprised if the semis are all seeds this year.

[uofmman1122]

My point is that for the first time in what feels like forever, there aren't 2 (or maybe 3 at most) teams that feel like they're destined to make it to Frisco.

I think there are gonna be favorites, but it sure feels like any team in the top 8 has a legit shot of beating any other team, and that hasn't been the case since the late 2000's.

I wouldn't be surprised to see more seeded teams upset in the 2nd round, either.

[HootyHoo]

North Dakota St
South Dakota St
Southeastern Louisiana
Villanova
James Madison
Sam Houston
Montana St
Eastern Washington
Kennesaw State
UC Davis

I’d say these are the 10 teams that have a realistic shot at the title. It’s going to be determined by the luck of the draw and matchups. Fun stuff.

[Preferred Walk-On]

North Dakota St
South Dakota St
Southeastern Louisiana
Villanova
James Madison
Sam Houston
Montana St
Eastern Washington
Kennesaw State
UC Davis

I’d say these are the 10 teams that have a realistic shot at the title. It’s going to be determined by the luck of the draw and matchups. Fun stuff.

I think the playoffs have the potential to be a very entertaining.

[Chalupa Batman]

North Dakota St
South Dakota St
Southeastern Louisiana
Villanova
James Madison
Sam Houston
Montana St
Eastern Washington
Kennesaw State
UC Davis

I’d say these are the 10 teams that have a realistic shot at the title. It’s going to be determined by the luck of the draw and matchups. Fun stuff.


I think the playoffs have the potential to be a very entertaining.

The playoffs should be very entertaining. There are a lot of teams capable of beating anyone else in the field and winning a game or two. The ones Hooty mentioned, plus ETSU, Montana, Sac St., Missouri State, SIU, & UNI if they get in. Maybe even Chattanooga. In the end however the list of teams capable of winning 4 or 5 games and winning the natty is still pretty short (in bold above).

[Daytripper]

North Dakota St
South Dakota St
Southeastern Louisiana
Villanova
James Madison
Sam Houston
Montana St
Eastern Washington
Kennesaw State
UC Davis

I’d say these are the 10 teams that have a realistic shot at the title. It’s going to be determined by the luck of the draw and matchups. Fun stuff.

That's a fair list, although history has shown (Sam Houston knows too well) that you don't win it all without a stout defense. That does not bode well for EWU and Southeastern LA.

[caribbeanhen]

If the Bison are capable of losing, why are they still on the list? The Dukes lost by 1 pt to Villanova, and they are off the list (as a long shot)? The Jackrabbits lose to the Panthers...at home, still on the list?

What I am pointing out here is that in a one-and-done, the best team can lose and some other team can win the championship, and I think this possibility is more realistic this year than in recent years. Heck, even Delaware was a semifinalist last year. Sam Houston had to escape 4 games last year to become champs, and they did that because good teams do that. Are you saying that the Bearkats won the championship last year, because the Bison were beatable, because the Jackrabbits QB went down early, because the Dukes got lackadaisical after blowing the Bearkats doors off in the 1st half, because the Hawks simply ran out of time, or was it because Sam Houston actually improved, especially on defense? I might argue the latter. How about the Aggies, have they improved this year? What about the Buccaneers, stout defense and control the ball/clock? Heck, what about the Bears (take your pick)? I think you could pick anyone in the top 10-15 as having a legit chance at a title (or title game showing). 16-20 (minus the Ivies only because they do not participate) could win a game in the playoffs, even against a top 5. Maybe my opinion will change after this week, or maybe the field will be even more open. Who knows?

Unlike recent years, I would be a bit surprised if the semis are all seeds this year.

top 10 to 15 teams have a chance? ... not a chance

Nova is known for coming up short in playoffs, not on my championship list

UC Davis has no chance. None Overrated

Kennesaw has the same chance as UC Davis

Southeastern Louisiana is a fun team to watch but won’t be able to stop anybody when it matters, They have no chance

Eastern Washington has a slightly better chance than Southeastern Louisiana so better than no chance but only a slim one

The Bison are still on the list because they lost to South Dakota State and South Dakota state is on my list

Looks like the bunnies won’t have to worry about Northern Iowa in the playoffs

You might remember what I said about Sam Houston State in February after beating SLA in first game, I moved them to #1 in my poll and said they were my favorite to win it all, people laughed. Sam Houston won because they were the best team.

Actually, Missouri State has an outside shot of doing some damage in the playoffs so I will add them to my list

There will always be an upstart

[MSUDuo]

top 10 to 15 teams have a chance? ... not a chance

Nova is known for coming up short in playoffs, not on my championship list

UC Davis has no chance. None Overrated

Kennesaw has the same chance as UC Davis

Southeastern Louisiana is a fun team to watch but won’t be able to stop anybody when it matters, They have no chance

Eastern Washington has a slightly better chance than Southeastern Louisiana so better than no chance but only a slim one

The Bison are still on the list because they lost to South Dakota State and South Dakota state is on my list

Looks like the bunnies won’t have to worry about Northern Iowa in the playoffs

You might remember what I said about Sam Houston State in February after beating SLA in first game, I moved them to #1 in my poll and said they were my favorite to win it all, people laughed. Sam Houston won because they were the best team.

Actually, Missouri State has an outside shot of doing some damage in the playoffs so I will add them to my list

There will always be an upstart

While I think that if you're throwing out SELA, KSU, UCD, MO State needs to be discussed but I don't think we have the OL or mental fortitude to go deep in the playoffs

[caribbeanhen]

While I think that if you're throwing out SELA, KSU, UCD, MO State needs to be discussed but I don't think we have the OL or mental fortitude to go deep in the playoffs

fair, but if you somehow get a favorable draw somehow..... you can make some noise

ETSU maybe, but the SoCo is not producing in playoffs anymore, but I like the running game and the opportunistic defense

[MSUDuo]

fair, but if you somehow get a favorable draw somehow..... you can make some noise

ETSU maybe, but the SoCo is not producing in playoffs anymore, but I like the running game and the opportunistic defense

Definitely depends on the bracket. If we can find a way to get a seed, I'll take my chances

[caribbeanhen]

Definitely depends on the bracket. If we can find a way to get a seed, I'll take my chances

besides, you have talent

playmakers make the difference

[mvfcfan]

Mvfcfan's projected field:

Should Be Locks (20): SHSU, MTST, SAC, EWU, MT, UCD, KENN, NOVA, JMU, NDSU, MOST, SDAK, SIU, UTM, ETSU, UIW, SELA, NEC AQ, PATRIOT AQ, PIONEER AQ

Bubble- not in order (9)= SFA, EKU, MONM, W&M, URI, SDSU, MER, CHATT, VMI

How bubbles make field:

- SDSU in with W against UND.
- URI should be in with W against Elon.
- Monmouth must win to make it and steal a bid.

- SFA knocks EKU off the bubble with a W.
- Mercer is in if they upset ETSU. They are out if they don't.
- VMI has a chance with W and Mercer loss.
- UTC needs both VMI and Mercer to lose to have a chance.
- W&M has a chance with a W.

In order, if all teams win, my at-large bubble would be SDSU, URI, MER, SFA, W&M, VMI, UTC, and EKU. Obviously Monmouth makes it with a W against KSU since they'd be the AQ of the Big South.

My prediction is that SDSU, URI, SFA, and W&M take care of business and make the tournament, while the other 5 do not. I do think Monmouth has a good chance against Kennesaw and W&M fans should watch that game with great interest.

[Professor Chaos]

Mvfcfan's projected field:

Should Be Locks (20): SHSU, MTST, SAC, EWU, MT, UCD, KENN, NOVA, JMU, NDSU, MOST, SDAK, SIU, UTM, ETSU, UIW, SELA, NEC AQ, PATRIOT AQ, PIONEER AQ

Bubble- not in order (9)= SFA, EKU, MONM, W&M, URI, SDSU, MER, CHATT, VMI

How bubbles make field:

- SDSU in with W against UND.
- URI should be in with W against Elon.
- Monmouth must win to make it and steal a bid.

- SFA knocks EKU off the bubble with a W.
- Mercer is in if they upset ETSU. They are out if they don't.
- VMI has a chance with W and Mercer loss.
- UTC needs both VMI and Mercer to lose to have a chance.
- W&M has a chance with a W.

In order, if all teams win, my at-large bubble would be SDSU, URI, MER, SFA, W&M, VMI, UTC, and EKU. Obviously Monmouth makes it with a W against KSU since they'd be the AQ of the Big South.

My prediction is that SDSU, URI, SFA, and W&M take care of business and make the tournament, while the other 5 do not. I do think Monmouth has a good chance against Kennesaw and W&M fans should watch that game with great interest.
Good stuff! You should put this in the week 11 thread though. ;)

[Gil Dobie]

You all hide behind Massey. That's fine, throw your spreadsheets and your formulas at me all day long. The fact of the matter is Trey Lance ain't walking through that door. The Bison got dog walked on saturday and no one is even considering giving them any more than a slap on the wrist. Hooty begs the committee to give the Owls a QF in Fargo. Massey won't save you then...

We would love that.

[Gil Dobie]

Kennesaw State ranked #5 in the Coaches Poll. Thank you very much.

You are the first person I've seen on AGS since 2003, the has something positive to say about the coaches poll.

[Gil Dobie]

just watch some games FuBear

I was like you once, one night I saw an Ivy League game and was like what the heck in Sussex Country is going on here. Lol

Dartmouth has some talent!

#7 is pretty close for that year

just remember, FCS minus a half dozen teams are very beatable

Deeper than a half dozen, IMO. Dartmouth beat Valpo by 10, the week after the Bison beat Valpo

[caribbeanhen]

Deeper than a half dozen, IMO. Dartmouth beat Valpo by 10, the week after the Bison beat Valpo

Yea, but judge Dartmouth on the entire season, they were not clicking at all vs Valparaiso (a beautiful Chilean sea side port :) first game in almost 2 years.

[Gil Dobie]

Yea, but judge Dartmouth on the entire season, they were not clicking at all vs Valparaiso (a beautiful Chilean sea side port :) first game in almost 2 years.

Tell me then, who have they played outside of the Ivy? The UNH team that winless Albany beat?

[caribbeanhen]

Tell me then, who have they played outside of the Ivy? The UNH team that winless Albany beat?

Well playing in the Ivy is actually no picnic

they beat Sacred Heart 41-3, an actual playoff team from spring

for me it’s more of the eye test, they are just a solid football team

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Teams that I think have the best chance of winning the title:

JMU
SDSU
EWU
Montana State
NDSU

[Gil Dobie]

Well playing in the Ivy is actually no picnic

they beat Sacred Heart 41-3, an actual playoff team from spring

for me it’s more of the eye test, they are just a solid football team

Howard also beat Sacred Heart this year. Howard lost to Delaware St. Illinois St would be a solid Ivy team. Dartmouth might pull out a win against one of the top 6 MVFC, but overall finish similar to ISU red this year. I just don't think they have the depth for a full season in the Valley. CAA they could be similar to Rhode Island, great record, easy conference schedule. I would pick Illinois St over Rhody this year.

[caribbeanhen]

Howard also beat Sacred Heart this year. Howard lost to Delaware St. Illinois St would be a solid Ivy team. Dartmouth might pull out a win against one of the top 6 MVFC, but overall finish similar to ISU red this year. I just don't think they have the depth for a full season in the Valley. CAA they could be similar to Rhode Island, great record, easy conference schedule. I would pick Illinois St over Rhody this year.

Illinois State would beat Rhode Island, we agree
Illinois State would be a solid Ivy team, we agree

you could put every MVFC team in playoffs minus Indiana State and it would be interesting

I’m not sure of what you think of Dartmouth really but I wasn’t saying they would make noise in MVFC, just every other conference

[caribbeanhen]

Only a handful of teams have a legit shot at winning the title
In no particular order

Sam Houston
South Dakota St
North Dakota St
Montana St

the rest are not part of the inner circle

long shot JMU

I was a little taken back this simple list caused so much angst here

What's wrong with it again?

[MR. CHICKEN]

I was a little taken back this simple list caused so much angst here

What's wrong with it again?

....DUH HOG HEADS..UH MVFC.....JES' WON'T LISTEN....TA DELAWARE FANS........AWK!

[Gangtackle11]

....DUH HOG HEADS..UH MVFC.....JES' WON'T LISTEN....TA DELAWARE FANS........AWK!

The rest of the CAA doesn’t listen to Delaware fans. xlolx xpeacex

[caribbeanhen]

The rest of the CAA doesn’t listen to Delaware fans. xlolx xpeacex

The difference is when referencing Delaware fans you still use plural 😂

[Chalupa Batman]

I was a little taken back this simple list caused so much angst here

What's wrong with it again?

I don't know that I would call it angst just because people had different opinions than you. But the only thing wrong with THIS list is JMU not in the inner circle.


But since you later added some Bears to the list that's what's wrong with it......




Actually, Missouri State has an outside shot of doing some damage in the playoffs so I will add them to my list

There will always be an upstart

[caribbeanhen]

I don't know that I would call it angst just because people had different opinions than you. But the only thing wrong with THIS list is JMU not in the inner circle.


But since you later added some Bears to the list that's what's wrong with it......

Yea the Bears really choked on it

JMU definitely should of been better than a long shot

but in the end, Not a whole lot changed in FCS this year

it’s always the same handful of teams

[Gangtackle11]

Yea the Bears really choked on it

JMU definitely should of been better than a long shot

but in the end, Not a whole lot changed in FCS this year

it’s always the same handful of teams

As it is in the FBS, D2, & D3……from Alabama to Mount Union xpeacex

[caribbeanhen]

As it is in the FBS, D2, & D3……from Alabama to Mount Union xpeacex

Good point GT

[MSUBobcat]

As it is in the FBS, D2, & D3……from Alabama to Mount Union xpeacex

Success begets success. Easier to get top recruits when you can offer deep playoff runs rather than an opportunity to go 3-8.