Week 9 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

With 3 weeks to go the playoff picture is still as clear as mud. I've tried to make some sense out of it by breaking down by conference and grouped teams together based on how good or not good I think their playoff chances are. The "Should be in" category is teams I think will be in unless they have an upset or two down the road. The "Work left to do" category is teams that have some margin for error but not a lot. I based my favored by on Massey's win percentage listed under each team at https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/fcs/ratings


MVFC
The MVFC meat grinder softened the bubble considerable but it still looks like the conference will get 4 bids easily with a possibility for 5. Of the two with work left to do Missouri St has the easier path.

Locks (1):
NDSU (8-0, 5-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3

Should be in (3):
SIU (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
SDSU (6-2, 3-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UNI (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (2):
South Dakota (5-3, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Missouri St (5-3, 4-2) - Favored in 1 of their reamining 3


Big Sky
The Big Sky looks like they'll get 5 easily unless some craziness happens down the stretch. If Weber St doesn't get upset in the last 3 weeks it's likely that 6 Big Sky teams make it. The two that must win out aren't likely to hang around but I still think the Big Sky probably gets 6 into the field.

Should be in (5):
Montana St (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
EWU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
UC Davis (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Sacramento St (6-2, 5-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
Montana (6-2, 3-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (1):
Weber St (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Must win out (2):
Northern Arizona (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Portland St (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in none of thir remaining 3


CAA
We found out who the likely 3rd bid out of the CAA is going to be. That might be it as Rhode Island is fading fast and it doesn't seem likely that any of the teams that need to win out will do it. I think the CAA will only get 3 in.

Should be in (3):
JMU (7-1, 5-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
Villanova (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
William & Mary (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3

Work left to do (1):
Rhode Island (5-3, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3

Must win out (4):
Elon (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Towson (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Maine (4-4, 3-3) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Delaware (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in none of their remaining 3


SOCON
The SOCON is going to be the conference to watch for bubble teams since there's going to be a lot of action in the next couple weeks with pretty much all of the below teams playing each other. It could thin the playoff contenders down to a couple or potentially set up as many as 3 at-large candidates in addition to the auto. I would guess 2 or 3 bids out of the SOCON depending on what happens elsewhere and assuming the games play out in between the best and worst case scenario for the conference.

Should be in (1):
ETSU (7-1, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do (3):
Mercer (6-2, 5-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 2
VMI (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3
Chattanooga (5-3, 4-1) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Must win out (1):
Furman (4-4, 2-3) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3


AQ7
Sam Houston is practically a lock but in the incredibly unlikely event they lose 3 in a row to end they'd be in trouble. EKU will be an interesting team if they finish 8-3 (assuming that final loss is to SHSU) but that isn't a given since they still play @SFA as well. SFA has a decent shot to win out and if they do they'll very likely knock out EKU. I think it's possible that the AQ7 swipes an at-large but they'll only get 2 teams in at most.

Should be in:
SHSU (7-0, 5-0) - Favored in all of the remaining 3

Work left to do:
EKU (6-2, 3-0) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3

Must win out:
SFA (5-3, 1-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3


Southland
The autobid likely comes down to who wins the SLU@UIW matchup this week. UIW would have a shot at 7-4 but I think they'd need help and they'd probably slot down to the 3rd SLC team if that happened. Nicholls could make a mess of things if they win out but that'll be a tall task with both UIW and SLU left on their schedule. I'd guess 2 teams tops out of the SLC with just 1 still a possibility.

Should be in:
SLU (7-1, 5-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do:
UIW (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in 1 of their remaining 3

Must win out:
Nicholls (4-4, 3-2) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3


Others (likely autobid denoted by an *)
In the Big South the Kennesaw/Monmouth game the final week of the season will be big for the bubble - if KSU loses but finishes 9-2 that means the Big South would get 2 in. Depending on whether UTM takes care of business or not the OVC could also still produce an at-large if they would lose to SEMO or Tennessee St and miss out on the auto (SEMO could get the OVC auto at 5-6). I'd say there's an outside chance that the Patriot League could get an at-large if Fordham gets the auto and Holy Cross wins out other than their game with Fordham. If FAMU wins out they'd have an impressive 9-2 record but would likely not make the SWAC title game so that could be a wild card as well in the at-large discussion.

Should be in:
Big South - KSU* (7-1, 4-0) - Favored in 2 of their remaining 3
OVC - UTM* (7-1, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Work left to do:
Patriot - Holy Cross* (6-2, 3-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 3

Must win out:
Big South - Monmouth (5-3, 4-0) - Favored in all of their remaining 3
OVC - Tennessee St (5-3, 3-1) - Favored in none of their remaining 3 but they could lose their remaining FBS game and still get the OVC auto
SWAC - FAMU (6-2, 4-1) - Favored in all of ther remaining 3


So the way it's shaping up of the 13 at-larges the MVFC is getting at least 3, the Big Sky will get at least 4, the CAA will get at least 2, and the SOCON will get at least 1. That leaves 3 left and your guess is as good as mine as to where they'll go amongst the leagues listed above... it really depends on how the actual games play out and predicting how that will go is a complete shot in the dark.

Who do you got? Any teams I missed on including? If you have a projected bracket put together for how you see it playing out feel free to post it.

[Chalupa Batman]

Mercer will be interesting if they split the last 2 games. They only play 10 games this season, and the only 8 against FCS are their conference games. A split of the last 2 games gives them a 6-2 record and at least a share of 2nd in the SOCON, but how would the committee view them against other teams that have played 10 or 11 FCS games?

[Professor Chaos]

Mercer will be interesting if they split the last 2 games. They only play 10 games this season, and the only 8 against FCS are their conference games. A split of the last 2 games gives them a 6-2 record and at least a share of 2nd in the SOCON, but how would the committee view them against other teams that have played 10 or 11 FCS games?
Yeah, I'd say they're a coin flip at 7-3 (6-2). To get there they've have to beat either Chatty or ETSU which would be a nice win especially if it's a win @ETSU.

[Chalupa Batman]

Yeah, I'd say they're a coin flip at 7-3 (6-2). To get there they've have to beat either Chatty or ETSU which would be a nice win especially if it's a win @ETSU.

I agree they’d be 50/50 in that scenario.

[Professor Chaos]

I agree they’d be 50/50 in that scenario.
They could even finish with a share of the SOCON title at 6-2.... that would probably help their chances for an at-large if they don't get the auto.

[Reign of Terrier]

Speaking for the Socon: I think they shot themselves in the foot because it could easily be a 4 bid league. I think had 3 things gone differently, we'd be banking on it right now: Had VMI not lost to the Citadel, Chattanooga not lost to AP, and Mercer scheduled 11 games, not 10.

ETSU, in my view, is a lock with one more win. You may think Vanderbilt sucks, but it's one of the best OOC wins of any team in the FCS.

Chattanooga probably needs to get the autobid. As bad as the AP loss is, if we're going to have a conversation about "quality losses" than that Kentucky loss is pretty damn quality.

VMI and Mercer are the wild cards. In a weird way, Mercer's fate is tied to VMI, given that blowout loss to the Keydets (which, was really weird) and the fact that they only play 10 games and no FCS OOC. A 7-3 Mercer team has a good chance of getting in if those only 2 losses are to VMI and the conference champ, provided VMI finishes 8-3 or better (which I honestly wouldn't gamble on because VMI seems to usually play to the level of their competition, even if they win).


Looking at this, I think there is one scenario where the Socon would have a solid argument for 4 bids:
If Chattanooga wins out, finishes 8-3 (7-1), claiming the autobid.
ETSU loses to Mercer but otherwise wins out, finishing 9-2 (7-1), claiming a share of the socon title, but no autobid.
VMI loses to ETSU but wins out, finishing 8-3 (6-2)
Mercer loses to Chattanooga, but beats ETSU, to finish 7-3.

In that scenario, I think the Socon gets no less than 3 in, the fourth will come down to what people think of Mercer. There is precedent for a fourth place socon team, who had a quality win against a conference opponent, while only having 6 D1 wins, and that was Samford in 2016.

Maybe it's a hot take, but I think *if this scenario were to play out* it's more likely that the Socon gets 4 than the Big Sky or CAA combine for 14.

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer will be interesting if they split the last 2 games. They only play 10 games this season, and the only 8 against FCS are their conference games. A split of the last 2 games gives them a 6-2 record and at least a share of 2nd in the SOCON, but how would the committee view them against other teams that have played 10 or 11 FCS games?


Yeah, I'd say they're a coin flip at 7-3 (6-2). To get there they've have to beat either Chatty or ETSU which would be a nice win especially if it's a win @ETSU.

To say what I just posted in less words: it depends on how the rest of the conference goes, especially VMI. When the Socon is relatively weak (2 solid bids and a third bubble), in a similar scenario the committee denied Furman (6-4) in 2018 that bid. When the Socon is relatively strong (3 solid bids), they granted that one (Samford 2017- 6-5).

I think Mercer would probably greater resemble that Samford team than Furman, because they would have less losses than both (and they would be "quality losses" against playoff teams)

[MSUBobcat]

I'd like to know how Massey (in think that's who you use to determine favorites in the remaining games?) determined that MSU is going to lose by 2 more points in Missoula than even SUU just did. If the line is UM -2.5, I'm putting a decent bet down on MSU -6.5 or more. The Griz REALLY gotta clean stuff up or the Bobcats will win going away.

[grizband]

I'd like to know how Massey (in think that's who you use to determine favorites in the remaining games?) determined that MSU is going to lose by 2 more points in Missoula than even SUU just did. If the line is UM -2.5, I'm putting a decent bet down on MSU -6.5 or more. The Griz REALLY gotta clean stuff up or the Bobcats will win going away.
While I agree that MSU should be currently favored, could there be an adjustment for both home game, and rivarly game, factored here?

[Professor Chaos]

I'd like to know how Massey (in think that's who you use to determine favorites in the remaining games?) determined that MSU is going to lose by 2 more points in Missoula than even SUU just did. If the line is UM -2.5, I'm putting a decent bet down on MSU -6.5 or more. The Griz REALLY gotta clean stuff up or the Bobcats will win going away.
Massey's algorithm is banking on the fact that yesterday was just a bad game for the Griz. The predicted spread for UM/MSU tightened up though from last week due to the Griz's underwhelming performance against SUU. Massey actually has MSU rated higher of the two but the homefield tilts the scale in favor of UM I guess. I'd have a hard time picking against the Cats in that one even with it being in Missoula.

[caribbeanhen]

first round game - Princeton vs Jackson State - Preps sent south due great attendance down yonder and these 2 Tigers come in different stripes

Prairie View at Dartmouth - PV on road because we want see P88 in New Hampshire

Harvard at N Iowa - let's finally give N Iowa an East coast opponent that has some mojo, well at least since 2007

Yale at Kennesaw - Hoo would not want to see this game.... if Yale can't make it call Columbia

[MUHAWKS]

Not that this will make any difference but regarding Monmouth/Kennesaw- Doubtful that Kennesaw will not be favored but I assume you are just taking form Massey- And also- Monmouth does NOT need to win out to get the auto bid- We have 3 games remaining, the last one with Kennesaw- We just have to win 1 of the next 2 and also beat Kennesaw as we would both have 1 conf loss and beat them head to head. Of course that assumes Kennesaw wins both of their next 2- In the rare chance they do lose 1, then I assume a Monmouth win in the last game would eliminate Kennesaw from an at large @ 8-3. So Like I said pretty inconsequential but Monmouth can lose 1 of next 2 and still get the auto bid. Similarly even if Kennesaw were to lose 1 of the next 2, a win against Monmouth makes them auto bid, but I guess it is common thought on this board that Kennesaw is in no matter what @ 9-2 even if they lose to Monmouth-

[mvfcfan]

The OVC has a chance to steal a bid. UT Martin should win their next two games against Tennessee State and at Tennessee Tech. If SEMO wins at Murray State in two weeks after their bye week then SEMO will play UT Martin in a conference championship game in Cape Girardeau. If SEMO makes the upset at home they'd win the AQ and I'd say a 9-2 UTM would get an at-large bid.

[katss07]

The AQ7 still has a path to three bids… SFA at 5-3 certainly needs to win out considering this year’s bubble will likely be too strong for non Big 3 teams at 7-4 to get in. They should get into the playoffs if they can finish 8-3. That would require knocking off EKU. If the Colonels could turn around and beat SHSU the following week and finish at 8-3 they’d have to receive heavy consideration. It would leave us with

SHSU (9-1)
SFA (8-3)
EKU (8-3)

Unlikely, but not impossible!

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Looking at this, I think there is one scenario where the Socon would have a solid argument for 4 bids:
If Chattanooga wins out, finishes 8-3 (7-1), claiming the autobid.
ETSU loses to Mercer but otherwise wins out, finishing 9-2 (6-2), claiming a share of the socon title, but no autobid.
VMI loses to ETSU but wins out, finishing 8-3 (6-2)
Mercer loses to Chattanooga, but beats ETSU, to finish 7-3.

In that scenario, I think the Socon gets no less than 3 in, the fourth will come down to what people think of Mercer. There is precedent for a fourth place socon team, who had a quality win against a conference opponent, while only having 6 D1 wins, and that was Samford in 2016.

Maybe it's a hot take, but I think *if this scenario were to play out* it's more likely that the Socon gets 4 than the Big Sky or CAA combine for 14.

First of all, FIFY.

That is but one scenario. The way I see it, VMI and Chattanooga, in a way, control their own destinies. Three games involving four teams over the next three weeks will decide who gets what (title, autobid, at-large bid): VMI @ ETSU (this weekend), Chattanooga @ Mercer (Nov. 13) and Mercer @ ETSU (Nov. 20). I am hoping for ETSU to beat VMI and Mercer to beat Chattanooga to setup a winner-take-all matchup in Johnson City.

SoCon Title Picture
Chattanooga - clinches the autobid if they win out and VMI loses one more game than Chattanooga
ETSU - clinches the autobid if they win out and Chattanooga loses one more game than ETSU
VMI - clinches the autobid if they win out
Mercer - clinches the autobid if they win out and VMI loses one more game than Mercer

[Professor Chaos]

Not that this will make any difference but regarding Monmouth/Kennesaw- Doubtful that Kennesaw will not be favored but I assume you are just taking form Massey- And also- Monmouth does NOT need to win out to get the auto bid- We have 3 games remaining, the last one with Kennesaw- We just have to win 1 of the next 2 and also beat Kennesaw as we would both have 1 conf loss and beat them head to head. Of course that assumes Kennesaw wins both of their next 2- In the rare chance they do lose 1, then I assume a Monmouth win in the last game would eliminate Kennesaw from an at large @ 8-3. So Like I said pretty inconsequential but Monmouth can lose 1 of next 2 and still get the auto bid. Similarly even if Kennesaw were to lose 1 of the next 2, a win against Monmouth makes them auto bid, but I guess it is common thought on this board that Kennesaw is in no matter what @ 9-2 even if they lose to Monmouth-
Good call out. In any case, the only way Monmouth gets in is with the Big South auto.


The AQ7 still has a path to three bids… SFA at 5-3 certainly needs to win out considering this year’s bubble will likely be too strong for non Big 3 teams at 7-4 to get in. They should get into the playoffs if they can finish 8-3. That would require knocking off EKU. If the Colonels could turn around and beat SHSU the following week and finish at 8-3 they’d have to receive heavy consideration. It would leave us with

SHSU (9-1)
SFA (8-3)
EKU (8-3)

Unlikely, but not impossible!
That's true. Most likely 3 for the AQ7 then although SFA could be a casualty of a tough bubble in that scenario since they have a sub-D1 win.

[MSUBobcat]

While I agree that MSU should be currently favored, could there be an adjustment for both home game, and rivarly game, factored here?

I'd guess the algorithm factors in home field, but not so much the rivalry factor. I get why the computer might give them the edge, but my eyeballs see... big opportunity if they come out as the favorite.

[uofmman1122]

Massey's algorithm is banking on the fact that yesterday was just a bad game for the Griz. The predicted spread for UM/MSU tightened up though from last week due to the Griz's underwhelming performance against SUU. Massey actually has MSU rated higher of the two but the homefield tilts the scale in favor of UM I guess. I'd have a hard time picking against the Cats in that one even with it being in Missoula.
We've somehow looked worse at home this season than we have on the road. We'll have to see how MSU's offense looks the rest of the way, but I would put a realistic spread at around -10 MSU right now. The Griz offense doesn't seem to be getting better at all.

[JayJ79]

That's true. Most likely 3 for the AQ7 then although SFA could be a casualty of a tough bubble in that scenario since they have a sub-D1 win.
didn't SFA have some APR issues for football and basketball?
are they eligible for postseason this year?

any other FCS schools under postseason bans due to low APR or other issues?

[Professor Chaos]

didn't SFA have some APR issues for football and basketball?
are they eligible for postseason this year?

any other FCS schools under postseason bans due to low APR or other issues?
Good call, looks like you're right and they are not postseason eligible for football: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/stephen-f-austin-among-four-division-i-programs-hit-with-ncaa-tournament-bans-for-poor-apr-scores/

Other schools that might be in the same boat for football (although it's not clear if the others took their ban in 20/21 or waited until this year) are Howard, McNeese, and Prairie View A&M although none of them are likely to make the playoffs anyway (PVAMU has a regular season game scheduled on Thanksgiving weekend).

[mvemjsunpx]

We've somehow looked worse at home this season than we have on the road. We'll have to see how MSU's offense looks the rest of the way, but I would put a realistic spread at around -10 MSU right now. The Griz offense doesn't seem to be getting better at all.

I don't think the Griz will beat the Cats, either. UM's playoff hopes probably come down to what happens in Flagstaff on 11/13—getting in at 7-4 is less than 50%, IMO.

[MSUBobcat]

I don't think the Griz will beat the Cats, either. UM's playoff hopes probably come down to what happens in Flagstaff on 11/13—getting in at 7-4 is less than 50%, IMO.

I agree. 7-4 with back to back losses to finish the regular season would really put UM behind the 8-ball.

[Chalupa Batman]

Good call, looks like you're right and they are not postseason eligible for football: https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/stephen-f-austin-among-four-division-i-programs-hit-with-ncaa-tournament-bans-for-poor-apr-scores/

Other schools that might be in the same boat for football (although it's not clear if the others took their ban in 20/21 or waited until this year) are Howard, McNeese, and Prairie View A&M although none of them are likely to make the playoffs anyway (PVAMU has a regular season game scheduled on Thanksgiving weekend).

According to the statement in their Twitter post they deferred the MBB ban one year but took the baseball and football bans last year, so it appears they would be eligible for the postseason

[Professor Chaos]

According to the statement in their Twitter post they deferred the MBB ban one year but took the baseball and football bans last year, so it appears they would be eligible for the postseason
Yep, missed that part. Makes sense from a football perspective since they played in the fall last year so they didn't really have an option for postseason (although I thought the NCAA offered those schools the chance for at-large consideration in the spring playoffs if they wanted it and none were interested).