SoCon 2021 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 10

[FUBeAR]

Away
Home
Time
Prediculations - Later in the week


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
1:00P
SHOWDOWN! One of these Teams will tie Mercer for 1st place in the SoCon. The other sees SoCon Championship hopes all but gone.


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
1:30P
NOTE: Dear Terriers,

Opting out is always an option.


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:00P
More interesting than it appears ‘on paper.’


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
3:00P
Uh oh. Late afternoon kickoff. Bellhops may consider opting out in protest.



Power Ranking

1) Mercer - after the Bears throttling of the bellhops & with them sitting all alone in 1st place in the SoCon, just gotta give this Team their due while they rest & do lab work to develop the strongest, most potent season-ending formula
2) Chattanooga - Now featuring a 2 QB system. Hmmm?
3) ETSU - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over VMI this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy
4) VMI - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over ETSU this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy

5) Furman - scoring for Furman’s Players seems harder now than when it was a South Carolina Baptist school, but the D is as good as any in FCS
6) WCU - Coach Bell comes back to Cullowhee’s 1st-ever ticker tape parade after a conquering tour through the State of South Carolina. New set of Palmetto State mounted soldiers mounts a mountain offensive this week though. Hopefully, that Offensive will include some Offense.
7) Samford - scoring for Alabama Baptists always came easier as they played a lot of back-yard catch with their siblings & cuzzins. Nothing’s changed. The D is as bad as any in FCS


8) Shell of a Citadel - is fragging of leadership still frowned upon?
9) Wofford - FUBeAR is finding it difficult to come up with creative, hyperbolic insults to describe the disaster of the situation here because the Terriers keep exceeding whatever he throws at them

[Mocs123]

Picks:

VMI - 27
ETSU -31 - This game could go either way, but I’m going out on a limb and say the Mountain Pirates take this one at home. It makes me nauseous to say this but Go Bucs!

Chattanooga – 31 – The Mocs travel to Sparkle City and come away with a win. The Terrier faithful break out the tar and feathers for Conklin.
Wofford -17

Furman – 24 – The Catamounts are going to score some points. Can the Paladin offense score enough to keep up. I think their D keep them in it, Furple with the win the Purple Bowl.
Western Carolina -21

The Citadel - 31
Samford – 38 – This will be a test of how good the Samford offense is vs. how bad the Samford run defense is. I think Samford wins in a higher scoring affair.

Power Rankings: - No changes from last week

1.) VMI (0)
2.) Chattanooga (0)
3.) ETSU (0)
4.) Mercer (0)
5.) Furman (0)
6.) Samford (0)
7.) Western Carolina (0)
8.) The Citadel (0)
9.) Wofford (0)

Division 1 Wins Possible:
ETSU – 9
VMI – 9
Chattanooga – 8
Furman -7
Mercer – 7
Samford – 5 - Out
Western Carolina - 5 – Out
The Citadel – 4 - Out
Wofford – 3 - Out

SoCon Wins Possible:
ETSU – 7
Mercer – 7
Chattanooga – 7
VMI -7
Furman – 5
Western Carolina - 5
Samford – 4
The Citadel – 3
Wofford – 2

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't know if Conklin survives if Wofford keeps losing like this. Our AD probably doesn't have it in him (I've heard Conklin's got another year on his contract, and being very cheap he may just tough it out), but folks are just mad at Wofford football right now. I asked Twitter (not a scientific poll) what people thought should happen with regard to our coaching situation, and over 3/4 of people (admittedly a sample of like 40something, not all of which were Wofford fans) thought JC should be fired either no matter what or if he doesn't win another game.

I'm currently leaning toward "he has to be fired if he doesn't win another game" because if you look at the history of Socon teams that finished 0-8, they either fire their coach (and the team bounces back) or he returns another year to finish 0-8 again and he gets fired. The only coach to not abide by this trend is Wachenheim. But with all due respect to VMI, Wofford doesn't have the same barriers, lack of foundation, or uh minimal expectation from their football program as VMI.

I think things are bad, but not as bad people think they they are. I think some of the problems are real and out of the coaches' control, like injuries and the fact that we're a brand new team relative to 2019. We're also on month 4 of another brand new offense. I think things will improve, whether it be we finish 5-6 or 9-2 next season (I'd say more likely the former, but then 2023 is anyone's guess), but right now I don't think people have the patience for that because everyone is just...angry. Alumni, players' parents, fans (who likely didn't go to Wofford I don't think based on their message board punctuation skills - I didn't know they existed), and probably players and coaches as well, are all just seething mad at this season.

I don't think the environment we have right now is sustainable, even if there's good reason to think we'll improve next year. So, new blood at the top may be a necessity if Conklin can't win a game or two.

[walliver]

…Wofford - FUBeAR is finding it difficult to come up with creative, hyperbolic insults to describe the disaster of the situation here because the Terriers keep exceeding whatever he throws at them

I don’t think your thesaurus has any words that would be hyperbolic in describing the 2021 seasons.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don’t think your thesaurus has any words that would be hyperbolic in describing the 2021 seasons.

You see, we Wofford fans have had to resort to bad grammar and speling as the only way xlolx

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 4-0 this past week. No trips to Crow-Fil-A yesterday. Still only four one conference loss teams remain, who could be the next one to go? This is where I have it after this week.

1) VMI - Needs to thsnk God they still control their destiny
2) Chattanooga - Still controls their own destiny if they win out
3) East Tennessee State - Was hoping they would control their destiny except Furman let them down
4) Mercer - Laid punchless Chuckydogs to waste
5) Samford - Came close to scoring the biggest conference upset
6) Furman - Had a great defense, offense not so much
7) Western Carolina - Eliminated themselves from "winning" the Toilet Bowl
8) A Citadel - Looked like their Civil War counterparts in Savannah
9) Wofford - Has the inside track to "winning" the SoCon Toilet Bowl next week

This Week's Games
VMI @ East Tennessee State (SoCon Championship Series, Game of the Week) - Bucs get one win closer to claiming their second SoCon title in four years
Chattanooga @ Wofford (Opt-Out Bowl) - Mockingbird-Dogs keep their conference title hopes alive for another week
Furman @ Western Carolina (Upset Special of the Week) - Cardiac Catamounts have enough offense to pull it out
A Citadel @ Samford​ - Bammerdogs win the Battle of the Bulldogs

[kdinva]

But with all due respect to VMI, Wofford doesn't have the same barriers, lack of foundation, or uh minimal expectation from their football program as VMI.....

VMI has always wanted to win, finally AD (since moved on) Dr. Diles and the recently-exiled Supe. Gen Peay hired Coach Wach, and gave him more resources and patience, VMI and it's alums now expect winning seasons regularly.

[Reign of Terrier]

VMI has always wanted to win, finally AD (since moved on) Dr. Diles and the recently-exiled Supe. Gen Peay hired Coach Wach, and gave him more resources and patience, VMI and it's alums now expect winning seasons regularly.

Enduring multiple consecutive winless socon seasons is only something Western Carolina and VMI have done recently. Given Wofford's history, it's unacceptable to happen even once. That's how the rest of the conference treats these things.

[The Cats]

Enduring multiple consecutive winless socon seasons is only something Western Carolina and VMI have done recently. Given Wofford's history, it's unacceptable to happen even once. That's how the rest of the conference treats these things.

What's important is what happens (or is happening) this season.

[Reign of Terrier]

What's important is what happens (or is happening) this season.

For my original point, which I was responding to, it's not.

My point is we have a higher standard for our football team historically, relative to VMI and Western, the only teams in the last 30 years to not fire their coaches for 0-8 seasons.

If we fail to fire our coach after an 0-8 season, it's a very bad day for Wofford athletics.

Since 1993, there have been 12 Socon teams winless in conference play. Four of them were Western teams. Five of them were VMI. The other three were the Citadel (1995), Chattanooga (2008), and Elon (2005). Only VMI and Western didn't fire or have their coach resign after those seasons. And many of them repeated as bottom feeders as result. The other aforementioned 3 teams who did make a coaching change were able to bounce back to a winning season (or at least a respectable one) the very next season.

I don't want to be in the same sentence as Western Carolina and VMI if we finish 0-8, but everything I hear from people around the program indicates we will.

[The Cats]

For my original point, which I was responding to, it's not.

My point is we have a higher standard for our football team historically, relative to VMI and Western, the only teams in the last 30 years to not fire their coaches for 0-8 seasons.

If we fail to fire our coach after an 0-8 season, it's a very bad day for Wofford athletics.

You just made my point....
What's important is what happens (or is happening) this season.

[Reign of Terrier]

You just made my point....

You have completely missed the point and need to practice some reading comprehension.

Me: "makes a general observation about the history of Southern conference staffing, and how varies from institution, and how some tolerate failure more than others"

You: "history isn't important"

????

[The Cats]

VMI at ETSU (the Keydets spoil the Bucs season)
Chattanooga at Wofford (the ChattaQuittas romp over the helpless Terriers)
Furman at Western Carolina (the Cats figured out they like this winning stuff)
The Citadel at Samford (Hatcher tries to save his job)


SoCon Power Rankings (https://catamountsportsblog.blogspot.com/2021/11/welcome-to-purple-golds-2021-socon.html)

[walliver]

Rankings:
1) Chattanooga - nothing flashy, they just get the job done
2) ETSU - Only one blemish on their record
3) Mercer - what a difference a new coach makes
4) VMI - they never impress me, but they find a way to win
5) Furman - I watched part of the game on my phone while trying to ignore the game I was attending, and it felt like the coaches weren't playing to win when they punted late in the game down by two scores - the choice bothered me so I turned the game off.
6) Western Carolina - not the old Cants
7) That Citadel - They seem to be fading down the stretch
8) Samford - why can't they find a decent DC
9) Wofford - It's easy to say the coach is an idiot, but he did win a SoCon Championship. Basketball season is only a week away.

Predictions:
VMI at ETSU - ETSU should have been a top 4 seed but lost to Chatty, they won't do that again and win 31-20
Chattanooga at Wofford - Terriers keep it close for the first 10 minutes. I won't predict a score, but I don't think it will be pretty. Maybe the team rallies for Senior Day, but I fear most terrier fans will look longingly to the left and the basketball arena.
Furman at WCU - Should be an easy Furman win, but WCU will score points. I don't know if the horsies can score enough to win. Cants 31-24
That Citadel at The Samford - Sammy should win by a bunch, but instead pull a hatch and the Bullpups win 28-21

Playoffs:
ETSU and Chattanooga most likely in.
Mercer needs to win the conference.
Everybody else is home for Thanksgiving at Grandma's.

[SU DOG]

Walliver IMO, it isn't the DC that's the issue. I'm not sure any DC could have success here. The offense is exciting and explosive, but seems to leave the defense behind the eight ball. Our former DC had success before the Hatch Attack but could not sustain it under Hatcher. He was fired and the new DC had many accolades and much success until this year. The apparent philosophy seems to be to just worry about offense. This leads to the Spiral Effect - so termed from an ACC DC who was quoted as saying he could never work at a school using this type of offense. He said the defense would get progressively worse season after season. I don't know if this Spiral Effect theory is totally accurate or not, but it does look like our defense keeps getting worse just like he predicted. If you look at our players and their talent, this defense should actually be on par with our offense. Obviously they aren't, and our record suffers.

[Mocs123]

I agree with SU DOG. I don't thing Samford's defensive issues are a result of their players or even the DC. I think it's a byproduct of their offense. Even if you look at a team with a similar style - Eastern Washington - they have obviously had a lot of success with this system but their defense is never "good" - they just out score people. When Samford is on they are on and when they are off they are off.

[Mocs123]

Rankings:

4) VMI - they never impress me, but they find a way to win
5) Furman - I watched part of the game on my phone while trying to ignore the game I was attending, and it felt like the coaches weren't playing to win when they punted late in the game down by two scores - the choice bothered me so I turned the game off.


We made a lot of mistakes in the VMI game (missed two 37 yard FG's for example) but VMI impressed me, especially their staff. They were gamblers for sure - they kicked an onside kick (and recovered) early in the game, they went for it on 4th down (and made it). Their kids played hard and their kicker made a 50 yard FG to send the game to OT. I'll give Wachenheim this - he played to win and he wasn't afraid to put it all on the line.

They then impressed me again when they went down to Macon and took the Bears to the woodshead. I think they held Mercer to something like 25 yards rushing. That's a feat against any team, but especially a team that runs the ball as well as the Bears.

VMI has some good players for sure, but they aren't beating teams because of superior talent. They have good game plans and are executing them with precision.


Furman hadn't gotten anything on offense all day (they had 106 yards total offense until the last minutes of the game) but I was shocked Hendrix didn't use his timeouts and manage the clock better to give his team a chance to score. Several Moc fans around me were scratching their heads at Furman's (lack of) clock management.

[kdinva]

Rankings:

4) VMI - they never impress me, but they find a way to win


VMI's last two wins getting to you? fix your own house.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR is also in the impressed-with-VMI camp. Pretty sure Coach Wachenheim ran into Robert Johnson one day and got directions to The Crossroads from him, but he can deal with that debt later. Right now, all the Keydets seem to need to worry about are SoCon Championships & FCS Playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

Walliver IMO, it isn't the DC that's the issue. I'm not sure any DC could have success here. The offense is exciting and explosive, but seems to leave the defense behind the eight ball. Our former DC had success before the Hatch Attack but could not sustain it under Hatcher. He was fired and the new DC had many accolades and much success until this year. The apparent philosophy seems to be to just worry about offense. This leads to the Spiral Effect - so termed from an ACC DC who was quoted as saying he could never work at a school using this type of offense. He said the defense would get progressively worse season after season. I don't know if this Spiral Effect theory is totally accurate or not, but it does look like our defense keeps getting worse just like he predicted. If you look at our players and their talent, this defense should actually be on par with our offense. Obviously they aren't, and our record suffers.


I agree with SU DOG. I don't thing Samford's defensive issues are a result of their players or even the DC. I think it's a byproduct of their offense. Even if you look at a team with a similar style - Eastern Washington - they have obviously had a lot of success with this system but their defense is never "good" - they just out score people. When Samford is on they are on and when they are off they are off.

Couple thoughts: I believe the spiral effect is real. Here's why: Samford has more players in the NFL right now than any other socon team, and I'm pretty sure they're defensive players.

I think the problem is a system-wide issue that comes from running the "Fun, Fast, [lol not really] Physical" style offense that Samford runs. You see this at literally offense that runs something similar from any team Mike Leach has coached to the Big 12 to Samford to Western Carolina to VMI (more on them in a moment).

My theory is that this kind of offense tries to out-smart rather than out-physical the opposition. It's about finding weaknesses in your opponents' defenses and exploiting them with quick passes. It works really well at the D2 level at Valdosta because opposing teams don't have the defenders to stop them. But it runs into some difficulties for a a few reason: if you can create pressure, you can disrupt the offense (which is basically what happens any time a quality P5 team plays a Mike Leach team). At the FCS level, you're also likely not going to get as accurate of QBs, and so you'll get probably 5-10 more incompletions a game.

The consequence for the "system" is your defense isn't practicing year-round against a system that wants to hit them in the face like any quality football team in college will do. And to make matters worse, the secondary isn't going to be necessarily full of superstars and shut down corners because they're practicing against a well-oiled machine. IMO when you get picked apart in practice (because if you're not, your offense isn't working) as a DB, it's a lot different than get outphysicalled at the LOS because the DB game is more of a mental one, about being in the right place at the right time. Make one bad step and you're out of position, but more radically so relative to other positions.

My point is, when you're practicing against Devlin Hodges and Liam Welch, they are good enough QBs to mess with your head as a defender. You can do the right thing and have the same outcomes as doing the wrong thing, which could hurt confidence and positive habit formation. So not only is your defense accustomed to not playing good run defense, it's not used to playing good pass defense either.


FUBeAR is also in the impressed-with-VMI camp. Pretty sure Coach Wachenheim ran into Robert Johnson one day and got directions to The Crossroads from him, but he can deal with that debt later. Right now, all the Keydets seem to need to worry about are SoCon Championships & FCS Playoffs.

So here's my thing with VMI: I think they're a good team, and unlike Western Carolina or Samford, they haven't *yet* succumbed to the aforementioned spiral effects. But their defense is still quite suspect. I still remember Kent State, and I don't think their explanation "Kent State will win the MAC" are valid.

Really, the most shocking thing for me is that they beat Mercer, on the road, in the manner that they beat them. Maybe they've turned a corner? It's hard to say. At the very least, they play to the level of the competition.

In my opinion, the teams whose philosophies are best suited to make run in the playoffs or run the table in the conference are ETSU, Chattanooga, Furman, Mercer, and (if we were competent) Wofford. Strong defense, run the ball, pass the ball efficiently and move the chains on third and long. I don't see the Citadel or the three air raid teams doing that.

I also think that the Socon is still a year or so away from its best ball and that's part of the reason why VMI is still in the championship/playoffs conversation. In short, if Chattanooga and Furman (and heck, even Wofford) were a year progressed, I think these systemic flaws in the defense may be exposed a little more. At that point they're in the position Furman is now, except the problem isn't an anemic offense, but a Samford-like defense.

Now, I could be wrong about this. I don't have it out for VMI. In fact, if they make the playoffs, I'll be rooting them. I just think there are systemic flaws with the offense they run (as described in this post). They're the kind of offense that will score 40 points a game (if they're working like they want to), and in that situation, that defense is going to let up 24-28 or so. In my opinion, to be FCS championship quality or elite by socon standards, you have to let up less than 20, maybe even less than 17 points per game. I can see every one of the defenses in that top 4 + Furman elevating themselves to that level, but not VMI (and not Samford or Western). To say otherwise is to say that VMI could be on an NDSU level(winning games by margins of like 40something to 14 regularly in conference play), and I just don't believe that they can be that.

I say all of the above, having watched Wofford closely over the last 5 or so years play really good (especially on defense, maybe top 15 quality), but not good enough to be truly elite (like top 5) at the FCS level

[FUBeAR]

VMI & Samford do not run the same Offense.

There are similar elements, but VMI does not rely on ‘gimmickry’ to be successful on O.

The Keydets’ OL likes to run block & are relatively competent at doing it. Their RB’s are physical & enjoy running between the tackles as much as they like getting to the edge or catching a pass out of the backfield. None of these are characteristics of any O that Samford has put on the field under Coach Hatcher.

[Reign of Terrier]

(my response accidentally deleted)

Well obviously it's not the Samford offense. But they refer to it as an air raid offense on their website, which has the same implications and uses the same fundamentals. It's like saying there's a difference between Kennesaw States offense and the Citadels. Obviously that is true.

Maybe they aspire to run the Ohio State/Clemson/EWU strategy of a balanced spread and a strangling defense, but until they start doing that (and continue to refer to their offense as an air raid, and continue to have a questionable run defense), I stand by my evaluation.

[FUBeAR]

(my response accidentally deleted)

Well obviously it's not the Samford offense. But they refer to it as an air raid offense on their website, which has the same implications and uses the same fundamentals. It's like saying there's a difference between Kennesaw States offense and the Citadels. Obviously that is true.

Maybe they aspire to run the Ohio State/Clemson/EWU strategy of a balanced spread and a strangling defense, but until they start doing that (and continue to refer to their offense as an air raid, and continue to have a questionable run defense), I stand by my evaluation.
Yeah - I just watch the games & go by the Football I see being played, but if website descriptions & statistical snapshots provide you comfort, you should rely on that.

VMI still won’t be Samford as you have posited, but you’ll feel better.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yeah - I just watch the games & go by the Football I see being played, but if website descriptions & statistical snapshots provide you comfort, you should rely on that.

VMI still won’t be Samford as you have posited, but you’ll feel better.

Name one "air raid" offense that didn't degrade into what we see with Samford. I'll wait. There's a shelf life for these systems. They peak in the 3rd-5th year, which is about what we see with VMI right now (and it's what we saw with Samford and Western Carolina under Spier), and then the spiral kicks in. We're already seeing VMI losing games they probably shouldn't (The Citadel, for instance). Right now the data and style of play fits my description more than your unfalsifable eye tests.

[ElCid]

Although VMI did not seem to impress early on, I am thoroughly impressed the last three weeks. I watched a good chunk of their game against Chatty and Samford. Kept on fighting in the Chatty game, took the cubs to the woodshed, and again kept on fighting in the Samford game. Down by 18 with a little less than 20 minutes to go and they pulled it out. Say what you want about the Samford D, but their O can score fast and the VMI D held fast when it counted. The average Samford TD drive in the first half (5 of them) was just over 2 minutes each. Most important, VMI has learned how to win again and it shows. Most teams would have folded a bit. Their coaches are creative and risk takers, as mentioned above. Their players are disciplined. The next three weeks will determine if they are actual champions.

[SU DOG]

NCAA FCS stats out today show that Samford at #123 is DEAD LAST in the nation in total defense. Next to us at #122 is Houston Baptist. Sure hope that folks won't get the idea that us Baptists are ALL OFFENSIVE. LOL!

[ElCid]

NCAA FCS stats out today show that Samford at #123 is DEAD LAST in the nation in total defense. Next to us at #122 is Houston Baptist. Sure hope that folks won't get the idea that us Baptists are ALL OFFENSIVE. LOL!

So what are you saying? That you will make even Furman look like they have a powerhouse O?xlolx

[SU DOG]

So what are you saying? That you will make even Furman look like they have a powerhouse O?xlolx

No, I don't like to look ahead. I was thinking more about the baby blue offense we will see Saturday at HC. The offense that ranks ahead of only Wofford and Furman. That's also the same offense that produced 14 points against the Paladins and a whopping 7 points against Mercer.

[FUBeAR]

Name one "air raid" offense that didn't degrade into what we see with Samford. I'll wait. There's a shelf life for these systems. They peak in the 3rd-5th year, which is about what we see with VMI right now (and it's what we saw with Samford and Western Carolina under Spier), and then the spiral kicks in. We're already seeing VMI losing games they probably shouldn't (The Citadel, for instance). Right now the data and style of play fits my description more than your unfalsifable eye tests.Such wonderful analysis and such stylish leaps to conclusive cherry-picked causality.

But…you’re ignoring a critical data point.

54% - had no idea what the number was until I looked it up & calculated it, but I did know it was relevant because I’ve watched VMI’s Football games.

You can figure out what that data point represents and revise your position or just be blissful in your misunderstanding & misrepresentation. Up to you.

[FUBeAR]

No, I don't like to look ahead. I was thinking more about the baby blue offense we will see Saturday at HC. The offense that ranks ahead of only Wofford and Furman. That's also the same offense that produced 14 points against the Paladins and a whopping 7 points against Mercer.
The bellhops don’t worry about their Offense. It’s all about Kickoff Times for the BaggageBoyzInBabyBlue

[bonarae]

ETSU
Chatty
Furman
Samford

[Reign of Terrier]

Such wonderful analysis and such stylish leaps to conclusive cherry-picked causality.

But…you’re ignoring a critical data point.

54% - had no idea what the number was until I looked it up & calculated it, but I did know it was relevant because I’ve watched VMI’s Football games.

You can figure out what that data point represents and revise your position or just be blissful in your misunderstanding & misrepresentation. Up to you.

54% is closer or equidistant to 41% and 44% than it is than it is 67%, 69% (nice), 64%, 81%. There are two 61% too, but what makes them different is the number 592 vs 528 vs 549 as opposed to 621 or 623

What's interesting is that 54% is much higher from last year, but it doesn't take away from the general point that VMI has more in common with Western and Samford than they do Wofford, Mercer, Furman, and the Citadel, and what further demarcations exist between them and ETSU/Chattanooga reveal the strategies of the air raid/spread that, as a system, make it vulnerable to cultivating weaker defenses.

If VMI wants to avoid the "spiral" they have to get some of those numbers down.

(for those of you who haven't kept up, 54% is the number of times VMI has called or ran a run play this season; I'm simply making the observation that it's much closer to Western and Samford than the run-oriented teams. It's slightly closer to ETSU and UTC, but VMI still runs about 5-9 plays more per game than them, which suggests a quicker pace, which is also part of the problem. VMI clearly wants to pass more, utilize matchup confusion with no huddle, which is basically a staple of air raid offenses. Yes, they've run more this year, but that could just as easily be the result of audibles at the line of scrimmage than anything. If they transition to something that isn't the air raid, I'll believe it when I see it. It's more likely that percentage regresses in the future than increases to ETSU or UTC levels.)

[FUBeAR]

54% is closer or equidistant to 41% and 44% than it is than it is 67%, 69% (nice), 64%, 81%. There are two 61% too, but what makes them different is the number 592 vs 528 vs 549 as opposed to 621 or 623

What's interesting is that 54% is much higher from last year, but it doesn't take away from the general point that VMI has more in common with Western and Samford than they do Wofford, Mercer, Furman, and the Citadel, and what further demarcations exist between them and ETSU/Chattanooga reveal the strategies of the air raid/spread that, as a system, make it vulnerable to cultivating weaker defenses.

If VMI wants to avoid the "spiral" they have to get some of those numbers down.

(for those of you who haven't kept up, 54% is the number of times VMI has called or ran a run play this season; I'm simply making the observation that it's much closer to Western and Samford than the run-oriented teams. It's slightly closer to ETSU and UTC, but VMI still runs about 5-9 plays more per game than them, which suggests a quicker pace, which is also part of the problem. VMI clearly wants to pass more, utilize matchup confusion with no huddle, which is basically a staple of air raid offenses. Yes, they've run more this year, but that could just as easily be the result of audibles at the line of scrimmage than anything. If they transition to something that isn't the air raid, I'll believe it when I see it. It's more likely that percentage regresses in the future than increases to ETSU or UTC levels.)
https://doctorbobposner.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Goalpost.gif

[FUBeAR]

Away
Home
Time
Prediculations - Later in the week


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
1:00P
SHOWDOWN! One of these Teams will tie Mercer for 1st place in the SoCon. The other sees SoCon Championship hopes all but gone.


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
1:30P
NOTE: Dear Terriers,

Opting out is always an option.


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:00P
More interesting than it appears ‘on paper.’


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
3:00P
Uh oh. Late afternoon kickoff. Bellhops may consider opting out in protest.



Power Ranking

1) ATLANTA F’IN BRAVOS!!!!!!!


















2) Mercer - after the Bears throttling of the bellhops & with them sitting all alone in 1st place in the SoCon, just gotta give this Team their due while they rest & do lab work to develop the strongest, most potent season-ending formula
3) Chattanooga - Now featuring a 2 QB system. Hmmm?
4) ETSU - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over VMI this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy
5) VMI - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over ETSU this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy

6) Furman - scoring for Furman’s Players seems harder now than when it was a South Carolina Baptist school, but the D is as good as any in FCS
7) WCU - Coach Bell comes back to Cullowhee’s 1st-ever ticker tape parade after a conquering tour through the State of South Carolina. New set of Palmetto State mounted soldiers mounts a mountain offensive this week though. Hopefully, that Offensive will include some Offense.
8) Samford - scoring for Alabama Baptists always came easier as they played a lot of back-yard catch with their siblings & cuzzins. Nothing’s changed. The D is as bad as any in FCS


9) Shell of a Citadel - is fragging of leadership still frowned upon?
10) Wofford - FUBeAR is finding it difficult to come up with creative, hyperbolic insults to describe the disaster of the situation here because the Terriers keep exceeding whatever he throws at themRevising the Power Ranking

[ElCid]

54% is closer or equidistant to 41% and 44% than it is than it is 67%, 69% (nice), 64%, 81%. There are two 61% too, but what makes them different is the number 592 vs 528 vs 549 as opposed to 621 or 623

What's interesting is that 54% is much higher from last year, but it doesn't take away from the general point that VMI has more in common with Western and Samford than they do Wofford, Mercer, Furman, and the Citadel, and what further demarcations exist between them and ETSU/Chattanooga reveal the strategies of the air raid/spread that, as a system, make it vulnerable to cultivating weaker defenses.

If VMI wants to avoid the "spiral" they have to get some of those numbers down.

(for those of you who haven't kept up, 54% is the number of times VMI has called or ran a run play this season; I'm simply making the observation that it's much closer to Western and Samford than the run-oriented teams. It's slightly closer to ETSU and UTC, but VMI still runs about 5-9 plays more per game than them, which suggests a quicker pace, which is also part of the problem. VMI clearly wants to pass more, utilize matchup confusion with no huddle, which is basically a staple of air raid offenses. Yes, they've run more this year, but that could just as easily be the result of audibles at the line of scrimmage than anything. If they transition to something that isn't the air raid, I'll believe it when I see it. It's more likely that percentage regresses in the future than increases to ETSU or UTC levels.)


Might I make an observation. I believe VMI has run more plays because they have found themselves on the short side more than once and needed to run more to catch back up or extend a slim lead. In their Cornell game where they lead by about 2 scores most of the game they ran a play every 26 seconds (32 run 43 pass). In their game at Mercer, who they walloped, they averaged a play every 29 seconds of possession (54 run plays, 22 pass). Against UTC, who they trailed for a bit, and traded leads with all 4th quarter, they averaged a play every 22 seconds of possession (46 run, 42 pass). Against us, where they never had the lead, they averaged a play every 22 seconds (37 run, 39 pass). Against Wofford where they were down in the second, but up by one score for most of the rest of the game, it was about 27 seconds a play (31 run, 23 Pass). Against Samford they were running plays every 22 seconds, but they obviously needed it to accomplish that epic comeback. They had 47 runs and 41 passes. Overall, they average about 238 yards passing and 170 rushing, but this past week was a huge anomaly with 472 yards passing which bumped their average up over 30 yards a game. For the year theirs plays are 319 run, 273 pass plays. That's not bad. I'm not sure their pace had anything to do with anything other than trying to regain the lead or maintain a slim one.

As far as play calling Samford is 253 run/370 pass. WCU was 276 run/345 pass. I don't see a problem for VMI yet.

[Reign of Terrier]

https://doctorbobposner.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Goalpost.gif

It's not moving the goal posts if my point affirms my original thesis.

[wcugrad95]

it is not just running the ball - you really have to look more at TOP and how an offense is designed. In today's football, there are plenty of pass plays that are the equivalent of a long hand-off or pitch that are designed to get a talented open field guy 5 yards with a chance to break a long one. So just because statistically you throw more than you line up and run the football (in this case, VMI actually runs it more than they throw), that doesn't necessarily equate to an "air raid" offense. That has been happening for a long time - Bill Walsh's 49er teams had an identity of good defense, and a ball-control (although via passing) offense.

WCU in the previous RPO scheme versus what we are running under Bell now is a good comparison of "go fast" versus "throw it a lot but try and control the game". Bell's offense is much more about taking advantage of open space and we don't necessarily care about scoring fast or even running plays that fast. Previous WCU offenses (when we were pretty good a few years back) were built for big plays, going really fast, etc. When those things fail you have that "spiral" where the D has to go back on the field after a lot of 3-and-outs during the season. I'd have to look, but I would think this season our TOP is much better than it was the past 2 years.

I have only watched a little of VMI over the past 2 seasons, but they also seemed to have shifted from the crazy-heavy "air raid" they ran 3 or 4 years ago.

[ElCid]

it is not just running the ball - you really have to look more at TOP and how an offense is designed. In today's football, there are plenty of pass plays that are the equivalent of a long hand-off or pitch that are designed to get a talented open field guy 5 yards with a chance to break a long one. So just because statistically you throw more than you line up and run the football (in this case, VMI actually runs it more than they throw), that doesn't necessarily equate to an "air raid" offense. That has been happening for a long time - Bill Walsh's 49er teams had an identity of good defense, and a ball-control (although via passing) offense.

WCU in the previous RPO scheme versus what we are running under Bell now is a good comparison of "go fast" versus "throw it a lot but try and control the game". Bell's offense is much more about taking advantage of open space and we don't necessarily care about scoring fast or even running plays that fast. Previous WCU offenses (when we were pretty good a few years back) were built for big plays, going really fast, etc. When those things fail you have that "spiral" where the D has to go back on the field after a lot of 3-and-outs during the season. I'd have to look, but I would think this season our TOP is much better than it was the past 2 years.

I have only watched a little of VMI over the past 2 seasons, but they also seemed to have shifted from the crazy-heavy "air raid" they ran 3 or 4 years ago.

I think they are much more balanced than they were, a la Samford's scheme.

[SU DOG]

Everybody is more balanced than we are. Samford is pass-happy on offense, and we are also unbalanced as far as offense/defense, as the current NCAA FCS Total Defense stat shows us as DEAD LAST in the nation.

[Milktruck74]

Sammy should consider that quick throw to the wideout behind the LOS a run...they do manage to have some success with it and it does tend to get them 3-5 yards (unless they are playing the Mocs).

[chattownmocs]

Chattanooga had a lot of 5th and 6th year guys come back, the one we are missing though is Bryce Nunnelly, he would really round out this team nicely with his ability to get behind the Defense. Doesn't look like he's getting much action at Western Michigan either. Damn shame.

[Reign of Terrier]

Chattown returns lets's go!!!!!!!!!!

[apaladin]

Chattanooga had a lot of 5th and 6th year guys come back, the one we are missing though is Bryce Nunnelly, he would really round out this team nicely with his ability to get behind the Defense. Doesn't look like he's getting much action at Western Michigan either. Damn shame.

You forgot to mention the 7 year guys. xnodx

[Mocs123]

Yes, I think we have two 7th year guys Chris James and Harrison Moon. That's an anomaly you'll probably never see again.

[FUBeAR]

https://twitter.com/brucefeldmancfb/status/1456240900682620935

[Mocs123]

Samford and Wofford fans both want their respective coaches gone, well Tom Arth is now available.

[walliver]

Samford and Wofford fans both want their respective coaches gone, well Tom Arth is now available.

We want Furman to hire our coach. It would kill two birds with one stone.

[kdinva]

We want Furman to hire our coach. It would kill two birds with one stone.

That's gonna leave a mark...

[FUBeAR]

Samford and Wofford fans both want their respective coaches gone, well Tom Arth is now available.
Don’t forget the bellhops want a new HC also…and you forgot to mention those 7 SoCon wins Coach Arth features on his resume.

[FUBeAR]

We want Furman to hire our coach. It would kill two birds with one stone.
That might work. What kind of Women’s LAX experience does he have?

https://furman.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Furman_Careers/job/Main-Campus/Head-Women-s-Lacrosse-Coach_R001352

[walliver]

That might work. What kind of Women’s LAX experience does he have?

https://furman.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/Furman_Careers/job/Main-Campus/Head-Women-s-Lacrosse-Coach_R001352

The job description requires 5 years of NCAA coaching experience, but doesn't specify that it needs to be Lacrosse-related. He could bring his high-powered wide open offense to women's LAX - a sport that is incredibly boring, even by lacrosse standards.

[ElCid]

Don’t forget the bellhops want a new HC also…and you forgot to mention those 7 SoCon wins Coach Arth features on his resume.

I'm not so sure. A few disgruntles on our site. He will be here through at least the end of NEXT season. Funny thing is, if he has good season next year, all the nay sayers will slink away. Beside we will not buy out his contract. We need the money for the visitors side rebuild, which we have apparently secured finally.

[Reign of Terrier]

https://twitter.com/brucefeldmancfb/status/1456240900682620935

"Oh no who could have seen this coming"

[Mocs123]

I'm surprised he didn't talk himself into a P5 job despite his record. The guy can ace an interview.

[kdinva]

WCU 31; Furman 27
UTC 31; Wofford 21
VMI 30; ETSU 28
Samford 34; The Citadel 23

[Sandlapper Spike]

I didn't realize you guys were arguing about run-pass percentage. I need to check out this thread more often...

I put together a weekly spreadsheet of FCS stats which is linked on this blog post (https://thesportsarsenal.com/2021/11/02/college-football-week-10-2021-tuesday-notes-and-observations/), which includes "top 5", "bottom 5", and occasional SoCon mentions for various statistical categories. I also wrote about onside kicks this week.

However, if you don't want to wade through my writing (and I don't blame you in the least if you don't), you can just look at the sheet at this direct link:

FCS statistics through games of October 30, 2021 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NCO8W2KKsM-1dG2RfGLu-HFZxlRSWqpLu29wXQCBGb4/edit?usp=sharing)


I count sacks as pass plays in my adjusted rush/pass numbers, unlike the NCAA (although I still list the "official" numbers in their respective columns). However, I do see the point made earlier that some pass plays are de facto runs; it is obviously hard if not impossible to distinguish those types of plays, along with the pass plays that wind up as QB scrambles. We don't have the benefit in FCS of the in-depth statistical data provided at the FBS level.

Anyway, the league teams on offense run the ball (per my stats) as follows:

The Citadel: 79.0% of the time (3rd in FCS out of 128 teams; yes, I include the "transitional" schools)
Wofford: 67.0% (5th)
Mercer: 64.9% (8th)
Chattanooga: 59.8% (19th)
ETSU: 58.5% (22nd)
Furman: 57.3% (28th)
VMI: 50.8% (63rd)
Western Carolina: 41.9% (113th)
Samford: 38.8% (120th)

Incidentally, 50.8% is the average for FCS offenses. The teams at the far ends of the spectrum are Davidson (which runs the ball 84.2% of the time) and Presbyterian (27.6%).

--

Also, because VMI has played so many run-oriented teams already this season, the Keydets' defense has faced a higher percentage of run plays than any other D in the subdivision.

[Sandlapper Spike]

I don't really like to predict games, but I do have a projections system that is still very much in experimental stage -- and, it suddenly has become difficult to get lines and odds on FCS games until very late in the week.

So, here is what my system spit out for the SoCon this week (please excuse the lack of round numbers):

East Tennessee State 29.7, VMI 26.5
Chattanooga 30.8, Wofford 11.1
Furman 32.8, Western Carolina 24.4
Samford 45.9, The Citadel 33.9

That scoreline for SU-TC is actually the highest projected total I have on the entire FCS vs. FCS rundown.

[FUBeAR]

I didn't realize you guys were arguing about run-pass percentage. I need to check out this thread more often...

I put together a weekly spreadsheet of FCS stats which is linked on this blog post (https://thesportsarsenal.com/2021/11/02/college-football-week-10-2021-tuesday-notes-and-observations/), which includes "top 5", "bottom 5", and occasional SoCon mentions for various statistical categories. I also wrote about onside kicks this week.

However, if you don't want to wade through my writing (and I don't blame you in the least if you don't), you can just look at the sheet at this direct link:

FCS statistics through games of October 30, 2021 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NCO8W2KKsM-1dG2RfGLu-HFZxlRSWqpLu29wXQCBGb4/edit?usp=sharing)


I count sacks as pass plays in my adjusted rush/pass numbers, unlike the NCAA (although I still list the "official" numbers in their respective columns). However, I do see the point made earlier that some pass plays are de facto runs; it is obviously hard if not impossible to distinguish those types of plays, along with the pass plays that wind up as QB scrambles. We don't have the benefit in FCS of the in-depth statistical data provided at the FBS level.

Anyway, the league teams on offense run the ball (per my stats) as follows:

The Citadel: 79.0% of the time (3rd in FCS out of 128 teams; yes, I include the "transitional" schools)
Wofford: 67.0% (5th)
Mercer: 64.9% (8th)
Chattanooga: 59.8% (19th)
ETSU: 58.5% (22nd)
Furman: 57.3% (28th)
VMI: 50.8% (63rd)
Western Carolina: 41.9% (113th)
Samford: 38.8% (120th)

Incidentally, 50.8% is the average for FCS offenses. The teams at the far ends of the spectrum are Davidson (which runs the ball 84.2% of the time) and Presbyterian (27.6%).

--

Also, because VMI has played so many run-oriented teams already this season, the Keydets' defense has faced a higher percentage of run plays than any other D in the subdivision.
Love the data…weren’t really arguing about the run/pass %

Convo is about the degradation of Defenses over time of Teams that run “Air Raid” “Hatch Attack” “Fun’n’Gun”…basically, Teams that would prefer to play 7 on 7, but are forced (in their Football philosophies) by Luddites to have 7 men on the LOS at the snap, with 5 of those men, wastefully, ineligible.

And even that’s not the argument here. I think we all agree on that. RoT seems to think maybe FUBeAR doesn’t, but unless I’m mistaken, I believe the ACC D. Coord quote SU Dog cited came from a post I made on the Sammy board 6-8 years ago…because a former NC State Coordinator enlightened FUBeAR to that fact & ‘splained it all to me. But they were all a-buzz-&-a-titter about “The Hatch Attack” and Defensive NFL Players then….so they didn’t listen when FUBeAR prophesied their D would end up lower than whale poop BECAUSE of “The Hatch Attack.” But, here we are. The bullpups are now dead-a$$ last in FCS in Total D. Tried to warn y’all.

The “argument” is RoT believes that VMI is in the same dire straits as Sammy. FUBeAR had no idea what the Keydets run vs. pass % was, but he knows that when he watches them play, he sees a Team that really likes (OL & RB’s) to run the Football, can run the Football between the Tackles, and counts on being able to pick up critical short yardage by running the Football. FUBeAR sees none of those things when he watches Samford play. So, FUBeAR looked up VMI’s run % just to see if the stats might support what his eyes are telling him…and it does. As you noted, they are about average in FCS run vs. pass. FUBeAR believes as long as VMI keeps loving to run it, counts on being able to run it, and doesn’t let that run vs. pass metric slip too low, they won’t suffer the fate of their Alabama brethren. RoT believes, like the Eagles (the band…not the Football Team(s)), they are already gone.

Now, FUBeAR knows RoT will cite VMI’s current Rushing D metric to support his data(only)-driven analysis, but FUBeAR thanks you for pointing out that VMI “has faced a higher percentage of run plays than any other D” in FCS. That’s where a truth-seeking, truth-speaking data analyst would look to Total D & Scoring D and see that there’s a lot of room between VMI & Samford in those more important metrics.

Finally…just to clarify, RoT has lumped WCU into “The Dead D Zone” with Samford and VMI (his analysis). He may be right on that, but with new Coaches, new system, FUBeAR has chosen to exempt them (for now) from his analytical, empirical observation and data analysis. Also, on D…they really couldn’t get any worse than they had been….even if they threw it 100% of time and only had their D line up against 50 gal trash cans, instead of O-Linemen, in practice every day.

So…argument settled. FUBeAR is right again. VMI is not soft on D, and despite running a self-MIS-labeled “Air Raid” O, may avoid the D Death Spiral if they keep doing as they are doing now.

[FUBeAR]

Away
Home
Time
Prediculations - Later in the week


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
1:00P
In what could, possibly, be a SoCon Championship AND Playoffs elimination game for either of these Teams, there are a lot of marbles on the table! Of all the games VMI has played, ETSU is most similar to Chattanooga. VMI beat Chatt in OT. Of all the games ETSU has played (FUBeAR’s convo with RoT in this thread notwithstanding) VMI is most similar to Samford. ETSU beat Samford in OT. Most likely, this game is headed for OT as well. In a close one, the Home Team gets the edge.

ETSU 31 - VMI 28


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
1:30P
Chatt begins their annual transition to full Opt Out mode this week as the Starters either decline to take the field or just refuse to get on the bus headed for SparkleCity. That gives Wofford some hope. However, despite protestations to the contrary, the upperclassmen on this AnkleBiter Team have also, once again, Opted Out. Expect to see something akin to an NFL pre-season scrimmage as you will not recognize the Players from either Team without a program/roster webpage in front of you. Based solely upon 247 Sports Recruiting Rankings the past 2 years, FUBeAR is gonna go with the Mocs this week…and wonder if they’ll be able to talk their Starters into showing up in Maconga the following week.

Chattanooga 27 - Wofford 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:00P
Before the season, all Furman fans had inked this one in as a win & a tune-up to avenge the snap-hitting-the-motion-man loss @ VMI last Spring. We FU fans have since had to contribute to Michael Nesmith’s Mom’s Trust Account & corrected that (potential) error. FUBeAR bets Coach Bell’s pillow has been soaked with saliva every morning since last Sunday. Beating CIT & WOF was nice for the program, but everyone can see how truly dreadful those 2 Teams are this year. Furman is not awful; not at all. The Paladins have not met expectations in 1 of 3 parts of the game and that failure to live up to expectations has caused 3 SoCon losses to 3 top-tier SoCon Teams. Beating Furman would be the ‘statement win’ that Coach Bell would point to as the harbinger of multiple SoCon Championships to come. He’s gonna have to wait a while.

Furman 31 - WCU 14


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
3:00P
IT’S HOMECOMING IN HOMEWOOD! And…the Samford fans are just hoping their HC would find a new home. Heard they’ve started a GoFundMe for U. of Alaska - Anchorage to start a football program & hire away Coach Hatcher. CIT fans hope their HC stays in Homewood. FU’s AD told me that they are having a hard time sifting thru the resumes to find the ‘real’ candidates for their Head Women’s LAX Coach job because they keep getting anonymous submissions of resumes with the names Hatcher, Thompson, and Conklin on them. Back to the game…Samford’s D tries to allow CIT to make a game of it, but CIT’s O can’t move quickly enough to keep up with how quickly their D is allowing Samford to score TD’s. In a really hideous Football game to watch…

Samford 63 - Where have you gone Citadel 28



Power Ranking

1) ATLANTA F’IN BRAVOS!!!!!!!


















2) Mercer - after the Bears throttling of the bellhops & with them sitting all alone in 1st place in the SoCon, just gotta give this Team their due while they rest & do lab work to develop the strongest, most potent season-ending formula
3) Chattanooga - Now featuring a 2 QB system. Hmmm?
4) ETSU - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over VMI this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy
5) VMI - will tie Mercer for SoCon lead with a win over ETSU this week. With a loss, many season goals may be in jeopardy

6) Furman - scoring for Furman’s Players seems harder now than when it was a South Carolina Baptist school, but the D is as good as any in FCS
7) WCU - Coach Bell comes back to Cullowhee’s 1st-ever ticker tape parade after a conquering tour through the State of South Carolina. New set of Palmetto State mounted soldiers mounts a mountain offensive this week though. Hopefully, that Offensive will include some Offense.
8) Samford - scoring for Alabama Baptists always came easier as they played a lot of back-yard catch with their siblings & cuzzins. Nothing’s changed. The D is as bad as any in FCS


9) Where have you gone Citadel - is fragging of leadership still frowned upon?
10) Wofford - FUBeAR is finding it difficult to come up with creative, hyperbolic insults to describe the disaster of the situation here because the Terriers keep exceeding whatever he throws at them

[SU DOG]

Love the data…weren’t really arguing about the run/pass %

Convo is about the degradation of Defenses over time of Teams that run “Air Raid” “Hatch Attack” “Fun’n’Gun”…basically, Teams that would prefer to play 7 on 7, but are forced (in their Football philosophies) by Luddites to have 7 men on the LOS at the snap, with 5 of those men, wastefully, ineligible.

And even that’s not the argument here. I think we all agree on that. RoT seems to think maybe FUBeAR doesn’t, but unless I’m mistaken, I believe the ACC D. Coord quote SU Dog cited came from a post I made on the Sammy board 6-8 years ago…because a former NC State Coordinator enlightened FUBeAR to that fact & ‘splained it all to me. But they were all a-buzz-&-a-titter about “The Hatch Attack” and Defensive NFL Players then….so they didn’t listen when FUBeAR prophesied their D would end up lower than whale poop BECAUSE of “The Hatch Attack.” But, here we are. The bullpups are now dead-a$$ last in FCS in Total D. Tried to warn y’all.

The “argument” is RoT believes that VMI is in the same dire straits as Sammy. FUBeAR had no idea what the Keydets run vs. pass % was, but he knows that when he watches them play, he sees a Team that really likes (OL & RB’s) to run the Football, can run the Football between the Tackles, and counts on being able to pick up critical short yardage by running the Football. FUBeAR sees none of those things when he watches Samford play. So, FUBeAR looked up VMI’s run % just to see if the stats might support what his eyes are telling him…and it does. As you noted, they are about average in FCS run vs. pass. FUBeAR believes as long as VMI keeps loving to run it, counts on being able to run it, and doesn’t let that run vs. pass metric slip too low, they won’t suffer the fate of their Alabama brethren. RoT believes, like the Eagles (the band…not the Football Team(s)), they are already gone.

Now, FUBeAR knows RoT will cite VMI’s current Rushing D metric to support his data(only)-driven analysis, but FUBeAR thanks you for pointing out that VMI “has faced a higher percentage of run plays than any other D” in FCS. That’s where a truth-seeking, truth-speaking data analyst would look to Total D & Scoring D and see that there’s a lot of room between VMI & Samford in those more important metrics.

Finally…just to clarify, RoT has lumped WCU into “The Dead D Zone” with Samford and VMI (his analysis). He may be right on that, but with new Coaches, new system, FUBeAR has chosen to exempt them (for now) from his analytical, empirical observation and data analysis. Also, on D…they really couldn’t get any worse than they had been….even if they threw it 100% of time and only had their D line up against 50 gal trash cans, instead of O-Linemen, in practice every day.

So…argument settled. FUBeAR is right again. VMI is not soft on D, and despite running a self-MIS-labeled “Air Raid” O, may avoid the D Death Spiral if they keep doing as they are doing now.

NO, to set the record straight I did NOT post the "Spiral Effect" theory due to anything that you posted. It sounds like you did get more details about it than I did, but I posted this just after HCCH was hired. I also mentioned that a fan of a team that Hatcher had previously coached warned us (paraphrased)to "get ready for your offense to score 56 points and you lose 58-56". Also, years ago, I had a meeting with our AD to tell him about my "Spiral Effect" concerns. Our AD did not hire Coach Hatcher, and wasn't even on a search committee. I don't know if any changes will occur or not, but the late Coach Pat Sullivan is the only SU coach since Chan Gailey(1993) to have not been fired. However, that is only 2 coaches, so Samford is long suffering before any action is ever taken.

[BearDownMU]

WCU 31; Furman 27
UTC 31; Wofford 21
VMI 30; ETSU 28
Samford 34; The Citadel 23

If that D over at Furman gives up 31 to Western, I'll eat my hat....

[wcugrad95]

Not sure I expect 31, but if we do we will need video proof 😀

[Reign of Terrier]

It's unclear, but Wofford has something like 18 players "out with the flu" on top of all of our injuries. It's unclear by the radio broadcast, but we either only have 38 scholarship athletes available, but maybe only 38 total players available.

Regardless, we started the season with over 100 players including the 63.

I feel like we are being lied to about the reason these players are out. Wofford often uses injuries as a cover for bad things going on in the program. I think it's suspect regardless and another example of Conklin having lost control of this program. He needs to be fired today. We will be lucky to score a point.

[BearDownMU]

It's unclear, but Wofford has something like 18 players "out with the flu" on top of all of our injuries. It's unclear by the radio broadcast, but we either only have 38 scholarship athletes available, but maybe only 38 total players available.

Regardless, we started the season with over 100 players including the 63.

I feel like we are being lied to about the reason these players are out. Wofford often uses injuries as a cover for bad things going on in the program. I think it's suspect regardless and another example of Conklin having lost control of this program. He needs to be fired today. We will be lucky to score a point.

I think I've heard about this flu. Pretty sure it's called COVID 1-7(0-6)

[Reign of Terrier]

I think I've heard about this flu. Pretty sure it's called COVID 1-7(0-6)

We need an injection of fire Conklin to get this done

[BearDownMU]

Not sure I expect 31, but if we do we will need video proof 

Not suggesting WCU can't get a W, but 31 would be a lot.

[wcugrad95]

Whatever is happening at Wofford, they are playing some pretty inspired D right now.

[BearDownMU]

Perhaps I should clarify and suggest that WCU's *offense* scoring 31 would be something.... lol. Sheesh..

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

It's unclear, but Wofford has something like 18 players "out with the flu" on top of all of our injuries. It's unclear by the radio broadcast, but we either only have 38 scholarship athletes available, but maybe only 38 total players available.

Regardless, we started the season with over 100 players including the 63.

I feel like we are being lied to about the reason these players are out. Wofford often uses injuries as a cover for bad things going on in the program. I think it's suspect regardless and another example of Conklin having lost control of this program. He needs to be fired today. We will be lucky to score a point.

(Big Brother hat on) Maybe you should conduct an investigation into why Wofford football is the way it is, kinda like what we did except I doubt you have any NCAA violations. If the culture of Wofford is so toxic it is no longer funny, then you fire Con Man Conklin for cause. Badabing, badaboom.

[Reign of Terrier]

(Big Brother hat on) Maybe you should conduct an investigation into why Wofford football is the way it is, kinda like what we did except I doubt you have any NCAA violations. If the culture of Wofford is so toxic it is no longer funny, then you fire Con Man Conklin for cause. Badabing, badaboom.

since he got his shot, he won't be fired

[Smitty]

If that D over at Furman gives up 31 to Western, I'll eat my hat....

24 points given up in the first half to Western's offense.

What type of sauce do you usually eat hats with? I'm more of a honey mustard guy

[wcugrad95]

Of course the Cats’ problem is we are going to give up 400 rushing yards and 60 points if we don’t make some serious adjustments at the half. Not sure why Furman ever throws it in this game.

Our O will need to score every drive.

[Reign of Terrier]

So Wofford just had an offensive lineman return a kickoff like 60 or 70 something yards for a touchdown. What a meme man.

We still suck but that was funny.

[Reign of Terrier]

https://twitter.com/Wofford_FB/status/1457071078593937418?s=20

[BearDownMU]

24 points given up in the first half to Western's offense.

What type of sauce do you usually eat hats with? I'm more of a honey mustard guy

Prolly just go salt and pepper

[Mocs123]

It was a linebacker I think but embarrassing for us none the less. Our special teams is terrible.

I hope your player down is OK. It looked serious.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford probably needs to make some tough calls about strength and conditioning because the amount of players we've lost this year with injury is just a systemic problem.

If you look at Wofford we are playing with the depth and competence of Mercer or ETSU when they were start ups. Given where we were 2-3 years ago (COVID or not), that's a pretty awful **** up of where this program was.

[Mocs123]

We had a ton of injuries in 2019. I know we had our first four running backs out at one point (3 with ACL tears), and had something like 9 ACL tears on the team for the year. Sometimes I think it just happens. I remember the Furman teams around 2013 having the injury bug as well.

[FUBeAR]

If you look at Wofford we are playing with the depth and competence of Mercer or ETSU when they were start ups.Um, no.

Mercer was 10-2 in their 1st year, setting an NCAA record for wins by a 1st year program. They were very nearly PFL Champs & a playoff Team in year 1. In their 2nd year as a scholarship program, they beat the #3 Ranked Team in FCS. Granted, Wofford had Mercer’s number…although FUBeAR thinks the Bears get 7 instead of 3 on the GL in the ‘15 game that the Bears lost in OT on a missed XP if MU’s Starting All SoCon OG hadn’t gone out with a broken foot earlier in the game as his replacement’s ‘guy’ blew up 3 plays on the GL…and MU clinches that one before OT.

Wofford, today, would finish in the bottom half of the PFL.

[Milktruck74]

If that D over at Furman gives up 31 to Western, I'll eat my hat....

You want salt with that hat?

[kdinva]

Keydets shot themselves in the foot 3 times in the first 19 minutes today, can't do that on the road against a quality team like ETSU (otherwise my prediction of a 30-27 win might have happened). VMI's playoffs start next week at Furman. I don't think VMI will get in at 7-4...

[Smitty]

Western beats Furman 43 to 42.

I did not expect that at all....

[wcugrad95]

Cats with nearly 540 yards of offense. Would have probably scored more but TOs hurt them. 3 punts in the entire game by both teams.

[FUBeAR]

Western beats Furman 43 to 42.

I did not expect that at all....
Congrats to the NEW Cats! Great STATEMENT WIN!

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Furman @ Western Carolina (Upset Special of the Week) - Cardiac Catamounts have enough offense to pull it out


Western Carolina 43, Furman 42 Final. #CalledIt

[MUfan]

https://twitter.com/Wofford_FB/status/1457071078593937418?s=20

Nice!

[Mocs123]

Big win for the Cats. I'm impressed that you were able to score 43 on a really good Furman D. I'm also impressed the Furman O was able to score 42 - that's by far their best offensive performance of the year.

Chattanooga and Mercer now control their own destiny for getting the autobid. Barring a meltdown, ETSU is likely in with an at -large. VMI will likely be on the bubble, but certainly has a shot.

[FUBeAR]

Chattanooga and Mercer now control their own destiny for getting the autobid. Barring a meltdown, ETSU is likely in with an at -large. VMI will likely be on the bubble, but certainly has a shot.Yep - Semi-Finals of SoCon Playoffs continues (after the VMI @ ETSU semi-final today) in Maconga next Sat, with the Championship Game in Johnson City the following week. :D

[BearDownMU]

You want salt with that hat?

See 5 posts above yours.

[BearDownMU]

It was like Opposite Day with Furman. Scores a ton, gives up a ton. But congrats to WCU. Arrow definitely pointing up for them at the moment.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Westerns Carolina is for real, they are one team to not sleep on. ETSU will have their hands full next week. So FUBeAR, you and/or BearDownMU selling tickets to the Mercer bandwagon next week? I would like to buy some.

[BearDownMU]

Westerns Carolina is for real, they are one team to not sleep on. ETSU will have their hands full next week. So FUBeAR, you and/or BearDownMU selling tickets to the Mercer bandwagon next week? I would like to buy some.

You're in... My treat!! :)

[Mocs123]

Any update on the injured Wofford player?

[blueGOldMOCS]

I was wondering the same thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[walliver]

Word is he is talking with the doctors and “doing OK”

[blueGOldMOCS]

Prayers for the young man


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

It was a concussion

[Mocs123]

Not that a concussion is good, I was worried it might be something worse. They didn't show the injury (or the late hit/targeting on the QB) on TV so I couldn't tell anything.

[The Cats]

that's 3 in a row....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDilYE6VUAU3K6H?format=jpg&name=large

[Milktruck74]

See 5 posts above yours.

Apparently the upward scroll on my mouse is broken!

[FUBeAR]

Apparently the upward scroll on my mouse is broken!
Tough break, man. They have medication for that now, y’know.

[chattownmocs]

I'm surprised he didn't talk himself into a P5 job despite his record. The guy can ace an interview.

Lol. Cleaned up Huesman's mess here and loaded the roster with talent. Then took over the ultimate program destroyers(Terry Bowden) mess and loaded them with talent. Now Akron's new AD can fire him and hire someone else to win with his players for a few years and use it to springboard himself to a better job before it collapses. Akron is starting 10 freshmen and a sophomore on offense. They are a couple years away from being one of the too teams in that conference. Whether Arth can win big above the D3 or 2 level is questionable but his recruiting methodology and roster building is elite. It's mind boggling to me that you think he is some kind of joke or something. You think UTC has this type of depth just because of extra covid eligibily?

[FUBeAR]

Lol. Cleaned up Huesman's mess here and loaded the roster with talent. Then took over the ultimate program destroyers(Terry Bowden) mess and loaded them with talent. Now Akron's new AD can fire him and hire someone else to win with his players for a few years and use it to springboard himself to a better job before it collapses. Akron is starting 10 freshmen and a sophomore on offense. They are a couple years away from being one of the too teams in that conference. Whether Arth can win big above the D3 or 2 level is questionable but his recruiting methodology and roster building is elite. It's mind boggling to me that you think he is some kind of joke or something. You think UTC has this type of depth just because of extra covid eligibily?
8 Players on Chatt’s current roster are listed in the 36 Players shown in Recruiting Classes signed by Arth.

[The Cats]

https://twitter.com/Catamounts/status/1457724598821163010?s=20

[Mocs123]

Lol. Cleaned up Huesman's mess here and loaded the roster with talent. Then took over the ultimate program destroyers(Terry Bowden) mess and loaded them with talent. Now Akron's new AD can fire him and hire someone else to win with his players for a few years and use it to springboard himself to a better job before it collapses. Akron is starting 10 freshmen and a sophomore on offense. They are a couple years away from being one of the too teams in that conference. Whether Arth can win big above the D3 or 2 level is questionable but his recruiting methodology and roster building is elite. It's mind boggling to me that you think he is some kind of joke or something. You think UTC has this type of depth just because of extra covid eligibily?

Arth could identify and sign talent - no argument there. He did have a higher amount of recruits not stick around than normal, though that could have just been bad luck, but recruiting talent wasn't his issue.

I'm just amazed that our AD at the time hired him (a D3 HC) over the HC of a top 25 FCS program who was the runner up (and has since been the HC of a top 25 FBS program). Then I'm surprised that Akron hired him from FCS Chattanooga with a losing record overall during his two years here, when we had winning records in 6 of the 7 years prior to his arrival.