AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 8, Fall 2021

[Preferred Walk-On]

With the last game wrapping up, and in the interest of sleeping off a day of tailgating and way too much laundry on the field, I present to you this week's How They Fared.

Just a few notes of interest:

- It was a tough day for teams from South Dakota...and a couple of other head-scratchers in the top 25.
- There are only three undefeated teams left...and one of them is not playoff bound.
- You will likely need to rank a team or two with a sub-.500 record...and you should.

CLICK HERE TO SEE “HOW THEY FARED”. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRrbMuV4EEbsE3Eh1kax9IqkPoy1YnKyy03ZWUZAsvQ/edit?usp=sharing)

[ElCid]

- You will likely need to rank a team or two with a sub-.500 record...and you should.


At this point in the season? Really? Not only no, but Hell no. If a team comes up to/above .500 later, then ok. But results count.

But thanks for doing this.

[Preferred Walk-On]

At this point in the season? Really? Not only no, but Hell no. If a team comes up to/above .500 later, then ok. But results count.

But thanks for doing this.

I respectfully disagree, if you are ranking on order of "best" teams. If you are ranking on something else, then leave the sub-.500's off; however, a sub-.500 team just knocked off the AGS #3 team that also had over double the 1st place votes than the AGS #2 team, so...xdontknowx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I respectfully disagree, if you are ranking on order of "best" teams. If you are ranking on something else, then leave the sub-.500's off; however, a sub-.500 team just knocked off the AGS #3 team that also had over double the 1st place votes than the AGS #2 team, so...xdontknowx
That is all fine and dandy and these things happen for sure but how good you are and deserving to be ranked can certainly be looked at by several factors and I don't buy into the "they need to be ranked" thinking either.

Maybe, lots of things to look at and that win is a great win but you also have other opinions on the matter.

The should be considered. That is it though and might have been better wording.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I respectfully disagree, if you are ranking on order of "best" teams. If you are ranking on something else, then leave the sub-.500's off; however, a sub-.500 team just knocked off the AGS #3 team that also had over double the 1st place votes than the AGS #2 team, so...xdontknowx

What am I missing here? 4-3 is not sub 500 right?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

What am I missing here? 4-3 is not sub 500 right?

Oh you are talking Weber, my mistake. I was thinking UNI.

[Preferred Walk-On]

That is all fine and dandy and these things happen for sure but how good you are and deserving to be ranked can certainly be looked at by several factors and I don't buy into the "they need to be ranked" thinking either.

Maybe, lots of things to look at and that win is a great win but you also have other opinions on the matter.

The should be considered. That is it though and might have been better wording.

I think the original wording for the original post was "and you should", not "and you need to/must".

You are correct though..."should" is just one person's opinion (mine). I think drawing a line in the sand based on record alone as an elimination standard (and yes, that is what it is when these teams are not even considered) really inhibits actually thinking about the factors that played into that.

I did not suggest that "crap" teams with a sub-.500 record should be considered. I suggested that one needs to look beyond a 3-4 record for consideration. Also, some of these teams have the potential to be 7-4, so they might even be playoff worthy then. Related to currently ranking them (or not), did the quality of some of these teams really change that dramatically weekly to make the argument that they did not deserve to be in the poll, but at 4-4 (or 5-4, or 6-4) they should be? Are there really other teams within or outside of the top 25 that all of the sudden are world beaters and deserve to be ranked over some said sub-.500 teams (I doubt it)?

I understand there is some recency bias at play here, but if you don't consider the team that beat the #3 worthy, then you might also be exhibiting recency bias against said #3 (and previously undefeated) team...I mean, after all, they were ranked #3, but now you would be saying they should not have been #3 to begin with? Oh, and did I mention it was on the beautiful red turf (i.e., they beat them on the road)?

El Cid gave his opinion, and I have given mine. I am sure many other opinions are also out there and will be reflected in the poll. Carry on.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Oh you are talking Weber, my mistake. I was thinking UNI.

Yes, I was talking Weber (and even hinting that one or two others might also be of interest to look at). UNI only took care of the #5 team...this is the type of loss that SDSU is famous for at home each year that has prevented them from winning even more MVFC titles. I am hoping it is not the only one for them this year. ;)

[ElCid]

I generally use game 6 as my cut off. I will vote for a 3-3 team, if I think it is warranted. Prior to game 6, I will vote for a 2-3 team because it may have been an FBS loss and they had a tough schedule and its still early enough. But a 3-4 team, even with an FBS loss is edgy being over half the way through. Especially if two of the Ws, or in other cases three, of those Ws are cupcakes. And anything less than 1 game from .500 (e.g., 2-4) is obviously downright ridiculous. And I am not going to consider Davidson's 5-1 result to a 3-4 good team, but I would look a lot more closer at some 5-2 teams before I settled for a 3-4 team with one good win.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I generally use game 6 as my cut off. I will vote for a 3-3 team, if I think it is warranted. Prior to game 6, I will vote for a 2-3 team because it may have been an FBS loss and they had a tough schedule and its still early enough. But a 3-4 team, even with an FBS loss is edgy being over half the way through. Especially if two of the Ws, or in other cases three, of those Ws are cupcakes. And anything less than 1 game from .500 (e.g., 2-4) is obviously downright ridiculous. And I am not going to consider Davidson's 5-1 result to a 3-4 good team, but I would look a lot more closer at some 5-2 teams before I settled for a 3-4 team with one good win.

Fair enough...but I might consider a win over EWU (with their body of work and high regard by AGS voters) at their place to be a little better than calling it one "good" win. I am excited to see how a couple of these teams follow up next week to maybe get to 4-4.

[chattownmocs]

I guess poll ranking criteria, by definition, would be weighted more towards "power" than "performance." As long as the cliche's that accompany don't get applied to playoff participation, it's not a problem. However, inevitably, these idiots like Herbstreet start conflating the the two and saying things like "pick the 4 best teams." As if that would make any sense at all. Obviously you have to reward the best season-specific performances or the games would lose all relevance.

[kdinva]

thanks for the sheet...

[semobison]

Don’t even try to tell me UNI at 4-3 and UND at 3-4 are not top 20 teams. UND,s three game losing streak were close games with two top 5 teams and a top 15. That’s what happens when you play in the Valley!

[kalm]

I think the original wording for the original post was "and you should", not "and you need to/must".

You are correct though..."should" is just one person's opinion (mine). I think drawing a line in the sand based on record alone as an elimination standard (and yes, that is what it is when these teams are not even considered) really inhibits actually thinking about the factors that played into that.

I did not suggest that "crap" teams with a sub-.500 record should be considered. I suggested that one needs to look beyond a 3-4 record for consideration. Also, some of these teams have the potential to be 7-4, so they might even be playoff worthy then. Related to currently ranking them (or not), did the quality of some of these teams really change that dramatically weekly to make the argument that they did not deserve to be in the poll, but at 4-4 (or 5-4, or 6-4) they should be? Are there really other teams within or outside of the top 25 that all of the sudden are world beaters and deserve to be ranked over some said sub-.500 teams (I doubt it)?

I understand there is some recency bias at play here, but if you don't consider the team that beat the #3 worthy, then you might also be exhibiting recency bias against said #3 (and previously undefeated) team...I mean, after all, they were ranked #3, but now you would be saying they should not have been #3 to begin with? Oh, and did I mention it was on the beautiful red turf (i.e., they beat them on the road)?

El Cid gave his opinion, and I have given mine. I am sure many other opinions are also out there and will be reflected in the poll. Carry on.

This. It’s the UNI Mosaic (for you Ludlum fans). Most years …early ranking and performance, mid year slump, recovery to near vote worthy.

To your 7-4 point. Weber has an easy slate remaining. They’re a VERY likely 7-4 and would have a high SoS, quality win, and 5 game win streak.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Don’t even try to tell me UNI at 4-3 and UND at 3-4 are not top 20 teams. UND,s three game losing streak were close games with two top 5 teams and a top 15. That’s what happens when you play in the Valley!


Let's see if they keep "proving" they are worthy of some ranking.

[Chalupa Batman]

Don’t even try to tell me UNI at 4-3 and UND at 3-4 are not top 20 teams. UND,s three game losing streak were close games with two top 5 teams and a top 15. That’s what happens when you play in the Valley!

UNI yes, UND no. Top 20 teams find a way to beat other top 20 teams. It’s why I had UNI, UND, & Weber all out of my poll. UNI & Weber now moving back in this week.

[Daytripper]

The bottom 6-8 teams in the top 25 just a churning mess each week.

[semobison]

Let's see if they keep "proving" they are worthy of some ranking.

Big game at Missouri State Saturday and they end the season in Brookings. My guess is they finish at best 6-5, most likely 5-6 and miss the playoffs. That’s life in the Valley. If the 24 best teams made the playoffs you would have 7 from the MVFC.

[PantherRob82]

I generally use game 6 as my cut off. I will vote for a 3-3 team, if I think it is warranted. Prior to game 6, I will vote for a 2-3 team because it may have been an FBS loss and they had a tough schedule and its still early enough. But a 3-4 team, even with an FBS loss is edgy being over half the way through. Especially if two of the Ws, or in other cases three, of those Ws are cupcakes. And anything less than 1 game from .500 (e.g., 2-4) is obviously downright ridiculous. And I am not going to consider Davidson's 5-1 result to a 3-4 good team, but I would look a lot more closer at some 5-2 teams before I settled for a 3-4 team with one good win.

Personally, having any hard and fast rules seems silly. Who are the beat 25 teams. Rank them. That should be the only rule.

[ElCid]

Personally, having any hard and fast rules seems silly. Who are the beat 25 teams. Rank them. That should be the only rule.

Because worthy teams have more Ws than Ls, and unworthy team don't. Because as an objective measure, it's the best we got. Too much bias can enter into it if someone "thinks" team A is better than team B. And my rules are not hard and fast, but close guidelines I use. Just like if someone uses a computer ranking to justify their poll, which I know some people use. To me they are a data points, but not hard and fast.

[PantherRob82]

Because worthy teams have more Ws than Ls, and unworthy team don't. Because as an objective measure, it's the best we got. Too much bias can enter into it if someone "thinks" team A is better than team B. And my rules are not hard and fast, but close guidelines I use. Just like if someone uses a computer ranking to justify their poll, which I know some people use. To me they are a data points, but not hard and fast.

So if Team A loses to NDSU by 4, Montana State by 3, Alabama by 10, and SDSU by 7 to start the season and then wins 3 straight by 20+ points they shouldn't be ranked after week 6 under .500?

[POD Knows]

With the last game wrapping up, and in the interest of sleeping off a day of tailgating and way too much laundry on the field, I present to you this week's How They Fared.

Just a few notes of interest:

- It was a tough day for teams from South Dakota...and a couple of other head-scratchers in the top 25.
- There are only three undefeated teams left...and one of them is not playoff bound.
- You will likely need to rank a team or two with a sub-.500 record...and you should.

CLICK HERE TO SEE “HOW THEY FARED”. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QRrbMuV4EEbsE3Eh1kax9IqkPoy1YnKyy03ZWUZAsvQ/edit?usp=sharing)
Is it just me but I can’t get this link to work and I have never had a problem with it before.

[Daytripper]

Is it just me but I can’t get this link to work and I have never had a problem with it before.

It worked for me on my laptop.

[POD Knows]

It worked for me on my laptop.
Yea. I logged in on another phone and it worked fine. And I was able to get my poll done. Kind of strange.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Big game at Missouri State Saturday and they end the season in Brookings. My guess is they finish at best 6-5, most likely 5-6 and miss the playoffs. That’s life in the Valley. If the 24 best teams made the playoffs you would have 7 from the MVFC.

The at larges are the only part that are measured on "the best". It is about the best and the best is always subjective. 5-6 and 6-5 are oretty easy to make arguments for and against so that gets fairly slippery.

As I've said a thousand times on here though if you put yourself on the bubble, stop whining. You are lucky to even get a look from anyone and you don't deserve jack **** with 5 or 6 wins so stfu. By the way the "you" there is not you semo. xlolx Just wanted to make sure that one is not misread.xlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Is it just me but I can’t get this link to work and I have never had a problem with it before.

It works, what are you accessing it with POD?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yea. I logged in on another phone and it worked fine. And I was able to get my poll done. Kind of strange.

Did you have trouble trying to get there the first time on Apple product. I've noticed that happens a lot. Don't use an iphone to do the poll has been my mantra for years now cuz it stops people from selecting on the form, reading the HTF, etc.

[smilo]

I had Weber State (and North Dakota for that matter) ranked last week. They are clearly among the best teams and it would be laughable to rank Eastern Kentucky or Jackson State over them as if they would've had a better outcome against the same slate. Maybe in Week 10 if these teams were 3-6. Weber State looks like a near playoff lock at this point.

I actually barely moved them up after their win this week. It was a lucky outcome (missed PAT) that move them from bubble to narrowly in. But it was still on the road against a top team - better than you'd expect. Still can't reasonably move them above UC-Davis given that H2H and UCD's record.

The more interesting debates are whether Illinois State and Nicholls ought to be ranked, and I am narrowly a no on that.

[POD Knows]

Did you have trouble trying to get there the first time on Apple product. I've noticed that happens a lot. Don't use an iphone to do the poll has been my mantra for years now cuz it stops people from selecting on the form, reading the HTF, etc.
Right now it is the only thing I have. I rebooted my phone and went back in and the link worked on the “How they fared” worksheet

[Houndawg]

Yes, I was talking Weber (and even hinting that one or two others might also be of interest to look at). UNI only took care of the #5 team...this is the type of loss that SDSU is famous for at home each year that has prevented them from winning even more MVFC titles. I am hoping it is not the only one for them this year. ;)

Its already their second one.:D

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Right now it is the only thing I have. I rebooted my phone and went back in and the link worked on the “How they fared” worksheet

Yeah, Iphone vs. google messes with our poll consistently for many years now. Let me know if you need an old laptop or something if you are having trouble affording the decent equipment I'll try and help out. xlolx

https://i.insider.com/4df51a7bccd1d56f6d010000?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp

[POD Knows]

Yeah, Iphone vs. google messes with our poll consistently for many years now. Let me know if you need an old laptop or something if you are having trouble affording the decent equipment I'll try and help out. xlolx

https://i.insider.com/4df51a7bccd1d56f6d010000?width=800&format=jpeg&auto=webp
Do you have any extra floppy’s for that bad boy because I am fresh out.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Do you have any extra floppy’s for that bad boy because I am fresh out.

I got 3 - 5 1/4's that I can throw in. You should be able to fit at least 9 teams (names only) on each one so you might need to skip the "significant's".

[POD Knows]

I got 3 - 5 1/4's that I can throw in. You should be able to fit at least 9 teams (names only) on each one so you might need to skip the "significant's".
I can’t remember but how much storage did those old floppy’s hold. I never had to use hardware that old. My first company laptop had the 3.5 inch hard discs. They didn’t hold **** either.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I can’t remember but how much storage did those old floppy’s hold. I never had to use hardware that old. My first company laptop had the 3.5 inch hard discs. They didn’t hold **** either.

Don't know exactly but we need to stop diverting on this thread of excellence for the voters. It would be a damn good lounge topic though...

[ElCid]

So if Team A loses to NDSU by 4, Montana State by 3, Alabama by 10, and SDSU by 7 to start the season and then wins 3 straight by 20+ points they shouldn't be ranked after week 6 under .500?

Not really going to get into what if hypotheticals. Especially without knowing the very specifics of any particular game or schedule. What if the three wins are against #s126-128 in some computer poll? We can speculate and craft degrees of hypothetical situations all day long. That is why I have some guidelines I follow.

[Puddin Tane]

Don’t even try to tell me UNI at 4-3 and UND at 3-4 are not top 20 teams. UND,s three game losing streak were close games with two top 5 teams and a top 15. That’s what happens when you play in the Valley!

ok, I’ll play. UND is not a top 20 team

[PantherRob82]

Not really going to get into what if hypotheticals. Especially without knowing the very specifics of any particular game or schedule. What if the three wins are against #s126-128 in some computer poll? We can speculate and craft degrees of hypothetical situations all day long. That is why I have some guidelines I follow.

So what you're saying is that arbitrary rules are silly because we need to know the specifics of the game or schedule. Got it. xlolx

[Chalupa Batman]

I had Weber State (and North Dakota for that matter) ranked last week. They are clearly among the best teams and it would be laughable to rank Eastern Kentucky or Jackson State over them as if they would've had a better outcome against the same slate. Maybe in Week 10 if these teams were 3-6. Weber State looks like a near playoff lock at this point.

I actually barely moved them up after their win this week. It was a lucky outcome (missed PAT) that move them from bubble to narrowly in. But it was still on the road against a top team - better than you'd expect. Still can't reasonably move them above UC-Davis given that H2H and UCD's record.

The more interesting debates are whether Illinois State and Nicholls ought to be ranked, and I am narrowly a no on that.

Nicholls I can see, but Illinois State is a hell no for me. The USD win is nice, but their 2 other wins came against 2 teams that have combined for 1 FCS win.

[PantherRob82]

I went conference by conference and evaluated the resumes. I only found 21 teams to rank. Had to circle back through and decide who got the 4 pity spots. xlolx

[grizband]

I went conference by conference and evaluated the resumes. I only found 21 teams to rank. Had to circle back through and decide who got the 4 pity spots. xlolx
I can recall, in years past, starting this endeavor after spot 15 or 16. This poll voting thing we do, it's not easy.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

You have a little over a 1/2 hr. left to vote folks.