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dpd
August 28th, 2007, 02:28 PM
I have received three pm's so far, and I can't tell how to send replies - does one use the quote button for that? - so i decided to go ahead and post the replies here -

first i was asked for my school affiliation - my undergraduate degree came from Rhodes College (Southwestern at Memphis when I graduated, the name change came 2 years later - go Lynx) which plays D3 football, my next degree came from my current employer, the University of Memphis (or Memphis State when i graduated - go tigers go), and my terminal degree was earned at SIU-Carbondale (no name change yet), so that's what i'll go with on the FCS forums - maybe later i'll get a slicker looking saluki avatar (don't really want to use the helmet) but for now i'll use the logo that was in effect when i first went to school there

i was also asked about my 75% accuracy, which is for straight-up predictions only - if i had 75% ATS accuracy i would not be sitting here right now - in recent years my ATS picks have barely gone 50%, but that was because i was tweaking things to try to include a factor involving the posted line - that did not work out and that is probably because the teams have no control over what lines are posted, and their performance does not appear to depend on whether they are chosen as favorites or underdogs - so i have dropped all that and gone back to the simpler scheme i originally had - we'll see how things go this year, but here is a link to the past several years' results: DPD Prognostication Accuracy (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/record.htm)

my picks do perform better at the end of the season rather than at the beginning (understandably so), and in fact i have one of the best bowl prediction records of all the computerized ranking systems - Bowl Predictions Comparison Page (http://academics.smcvt.edu/jtrono/OAF_BCS/Compare.html)

finally, i received some kind words from someone who was viewing with amusement my run-in with the southland boys on sunday - i created a thread for people to post their own preseason rankings but instead it turned into a contest to see who could flame me the most - i do expect a bit of hazing when joining a new forum group, but as GSUHooligan pointed out (saving me the trouble of doing so) the point was if you disagree with a certain set of preseason rankings then you should post your own as part of the discussion, not just ridicule what other people are doing in an attempt to drive others away just because their opinions differ from yours -

it reminded me a bit of a lehigh fan who spent three or four years sending me harassing e-mails concerning how lehigh was ranked - i tried civil discussion but it did no good and when i finally said basically i don't really care what he had to say he started re-sending using a different name (but not alas a different IP address) - i continued ignoring the messages except to note i stopped receiving them after that loss to holy cross a couple of years back -

i have not had the same problems with the other threads (for the most part), and i am looking forward to seeing what everyone has to say after this weekend's contests, because after all they play the game to decide things on the field, not on the internet

citdog
August 28th, 2007, 02:29 PM
thanks for the manifesto! who the hell are you?

dpd
August 28th, 2007, 02:32 PM
D. P. Dwiggins, PhD (https://umdrive.memphis.edu/ddwiggns/www/default.htm)

i thought i was posting a new thread to the forum - if i accidentally sent you a pm i apologize

citdog
August 28th, 2007, 02:34 PM
I'm CitDog CSA

UNHWildCats
August 28th, 2007, 02:34 PM
lol citdog.....

Careful dpd....citdog may try recruitting you to join his army which he plans to use to take down the union and reestablish the confederacy.

andy7171
August 28th, 2007, 02:37 PM
I'm confused.

UNHWildCats
August 28th, 2007, 02:37 PM
D. P. Dwiggins, PhD (https://umdrive.memphis.edu/ddwiggns/www/default.htm)

i thought i was posting a new thread to the forum - if i accidentally sent you a pm i apologize

From you homepage....

Major League Baseball (http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=chc) (Cubs Win! Cubs Win!)

Memphis Redbirds (http://www.memphisredbirds.com/) (St Louis AAA Farm Team)


Rooting for the enemy????? xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx

UNHWildCats
August 28th, 2007, 02:38 PM
I'm confused.

Hi confused... im Travis, nice to meet you xcoolx

BlueHen86
August 28th, 2007, 02:38 PM
I'm confused too.

Is this the AGS version of John From Cincinnati?
"I don't know Butchie instead."

Seahawks Fan
August 28th, 2007, 02:40 PM
Your accuracy about what?

xconfusedx

citdog
August 28th, 2007, 02:42 PM
Your accuracy about what?

xconfusedx

sure missed the mark here!

BlueHen86
August 28th, 2007, 02:42 PM
Maybe he means precision? People often confuse accuracy and precision.

Seahawks Fan
August 28th, 2007, 02:50 PM
This does remind me of John From Cincinnati. And I didn't like that show.


xoopsx

andy7171
August 28th, 2007, 03:01 PM
Your accuracy about what?

xconfusedx
Yeah, what he said.


Hi Travis

dpd
August 28th, 2007, 03:21 PM
From you homepage....

Major League Baseball (http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/index.jsp?c_id=chc) (Cubs Win! Cubs Win!)

Memphis Redbirds (http://www.memphisredbirds.com/) (St Louis AAA Farm Team)


Rooting for the enemy????? xeekx xeekx xeekx xeekx

i put up the redbirds link as a show of support for the memphis community (this was before the grizzlies came to town, i guess i would post a link for them as well if i cared about the NBA) - AutoZone stadium is a really nice ballpark, but actually the only times i go to the games is when the Iowa Cubs are in town

dpd
August 28th, 2007, 03:24 PM
Your accuracy about what?

xconfusedx

i must admit i was a bit confused too - i titled this thread "responding to my private messages" but after i hit the submit button the title had been changed to "Moved: my accuracy" which is why i thought maybe i had accidentally pm'd citdog after which he moved it and changed the title

th0m
August 28th, 2007, 03:41 PM
I've gotta say I find the PM thingy to work weird as well, I think I usually use the Quote option which prompts a sort of reply form with the original message.

igo4uni
August 28th, 2007, 04:18 PM
I'm CitDog CSA
xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

MR. CHICKEN
August 28th, 2007, 04:26 PM
AH GOTS NINE PENNIES......AN' AH'M STANDIN' IN FRONT O' UH PAY TOILET.......DAT WANTS UH DIME.............AH'M DOIN' DUH....GREEN APPLE QUICKSTEP...........HEY BROTHERAH.......CAN YA SPARE ME UH DIME......................xtwocentsx.....BRAWK!/couldbeduhyear.edu!

89Hen
August 28th, 2007, 05:28 PM
I will have to refrain from posting too much Dr. Dwiggins because if you don't have anything nice to say... People here know I can't stand computer rankings and I have use yours in the past to support my postion.

2006 Final Regular Season Dwiggins
1. UMass
2. AppSt
3. Montana
4. NDSU
5. YSU
6. JMU
7. Illinois State
8. Towson
9. SDSU
10. Portland State
11. Hampton
12. Coastal
13. San Diego
14. UT Martin
15. Charleston Southern
16. Montana State
17. New Hampshire
18. Yale
19. Wofford
20. Alabama A&M
21. Furman
22. Princeton
23. Southern Illinois
24. Delaware State
25. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

blur2005
August 28th, 2007, 06:08 PM
I will have to refrain from posting too much Dr. Dwiggins because if you don't have anything nice to say... People here know I can't stand computer rankings and I have use yours in the past to support my postion.

2006 Final Regular Season Dwiggins
1. UMass
2. AppSt
3. Montana
4. NDSU
5. YSU
6. JMU
7. Illinois State
8. Towson
9. SDSU
10. Portland State
11. Hampton
12. Coastal
13. San Diego
14. UT Martin
15. Charleston Southern
16. Montana State
17. New Hampshire
18. Yale
19. Wofford
20. Alabama A&M
21. Furman
22. Princeton
23. Southern Illinois
24. Delaware State
25. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Wow, you might want to re-write your formula for a computer ranking with a result like that.

CSUBUCDAD
August 28th, 2007, 06:34 PM
Hell, I am a Computer Science/Math major myself and I put no credence in computer based rankings because a computer never played the game, a computer can't read between the lines and computer uses absolutes and variables to predict where in the human can take in all the smells, sights, and emotion and put it in much more accurate terms.

dpd
August 28th, 2007, 09:04 PM
those look like my merit rankings, which are calculated rpi-fashion using 50% win-loss percentage, 30% opponents' records, and 20% opponents' opponents' records - those however were not the final rankings i posted last year, although they are pretty close -
DPD Rankings 19 Dec 2006 (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/iaapm.htm)

again nothing fancy was used in calculating the merit rankings, based purely on win-loss records and nothing else, so writing a different computer program would not change anything because the numbers just are what they are

BlueHen86
August 28th, 2007, 09:27 PM
those look like my merit rankings, which are calculated rpi-fashion using 50% win-loss percentage, 30% opponents' records, and 20% opponents' opponents' records - those however were not the final rankings i posted last year, although they are pretty close -
DPD Rankings 19 Dec 2006 (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/iaapm.htm)

again nothing fancy was used in calculating the merit rankings, based purely on win-loss records and nothing else, so writing a different computer program would not change anything because the numbers just are what they are
Interesting rankings. How often do you update them, and where can I view them?

dpd
August 28th, 2007, 11:34 PM
updated every sunday (except this week due to labor day games they won't be updated until tuesday) - however, i won't start calculating merit rankings until after the ivy league starts play - until then i'll be posting power rankings, which are used for predicting game outcomes -

College Football Rankings and Polls (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/rank.htm)

BlueHen86
August 28th, 2007, 11:51 PM
updated every sunday (except this week due to labor day games they won't be updated until tuesday) - however, i won't start calculating merit rankings until after the ivy league starts play - until then i'll be posting power rankings, which are used for predicting game outcomes -

College Football Rankings and Polls (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/rank.htm)
Thanks.

89Hen
August 29th, 2007, 11:41 AM
those however were not the final rankings i posted last year, although they are pretty close
These were final regular season (not including playoffs).

citdog
August 29th, 2007, 11:43 AM
updated every sunday (except this week due to labor day games they won't be updated until tuesday) - however, i won't start calculating merit rankings until after the ivy league starts play - until then i'll be posting power rankings, which are used for predicting game outcomes -

College Football Rankings and Polls (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/rank.htm)



saw your poll and i would love to know how you came up with that stinking pile

andy7171
August 29th, 2007, 11:58 AM
2006 Final Regular Season Dwiggins
1. UMass
2. AppSt
3. Montana
4. NDSU
5. YSU
6. JMU
7. Illinois State
8. Towson
9. SDSU
10. Portland State
11. Hampton
12. Coastal
13. San Diego
14. UT Martin
15. Charleston Southern
16. Montana State
17. New Hampshire
18. Yale
19. Wofford
20. Alabama A&M
21. Furman
22. Princeton
23. Southern Illinois
24. Delaware State
25. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
xeekx xnutsx