FBS impact on making the playoffs..

[WrenFGun]

Had a quick question that I wanted to shoot your way, as I think UNH may very well confront this issue. If an FCS team goes 7-4, with one of the losses against an FBS squad (in UNH's case, Marshall), can they still be expected to have a shot at making the playoffs? I assume it would depend on the quality of wins beyond that, but I just wanted to see if the 4 losses would eliminate them, regardless.

Even if UNH fell to JMU, UMass, Marshall and say, Delaware, they'd still have quality wins over NU, UMaine and Richmond. Would that be enough to get them in, or would they have to beat 1 or 2 of those 4 above teams to make a case with 4 losses.

Just looking for some clarification/opinions.

[McNeese_beat]

Had a quick question that I wanted to shoot your way, as I think UNH may very well confront this issue. If an FCS team goes 7-4, with one of the losses against an FBS squad (in UNH's case, Marshall), can they still be expected to have a shot at making the playoffs? I assume it would depend on the quality of wins beyond that, but I just wanted to see if the 4 losses would eliminate them, regardless.

Even if UNH fell to JMU, UMass, Marshall and say, Delaware, they'd still have quality wins over NU, UMaine and Richmond. Would that be enough to get them in, or would they have to beat 1 or 2 of those 4 above teams to make a case with 4 losses.

Just looking for some clarification/opinions.

To give you an idea, Portland State went 7-4 last year with a win over FBS New Mexico and losses to BCS Oregon and Cal. They didn't make the playoffs.

But I believe a four-loss Montana State team did make the playoffs.

I'll put it like this: Four losses puts you in serious, serious jeopardy, regardless of what's on your schedule. Similarly, if Southern Utah were to go 7-4, I think they would deserve serious consideration even without FBS games. Their schedule reads like a who's who of the preseason top 25 in the FCS.

[TheValleyRaider]

Winning only 7 games puts you behind the 8 autobids and then all those teams that won 8 games. 7-3 vs. FCS might do it if there aren't too many 8 win teams and those 3 wins weren't bunched together at the end of the season. The Committee would look more favorably on you, I think, if the team is on a roll coming to the end (say, 4 game winning streak) versus falling on their face (losing 2 of the last 3). xtwocentsx

[89Hen]

A lot of things have to happen for a 7-4 team to get an at-large... but it can happen.

[McNeese_beat]

A couple of other points:

Where it used to be nearly impossible to get an at-large at 7-4, these days, FCS teams are playing so many guarantee games at FBS schools (look at Portland State, Northwestern State and Southeastern La. all playing three and I'm sure there are others) the general records have skewed toward more losses. It may be hard to fill a bracket without 7-4 teams.

On the flip side, last year North Dakota State was clearly one of the top 16 teams while still going through the transition from D-II. Had NDSU been eligible, it likely would have knocked Montana State out of the playoffs and there would have been no 7-4 at-large teams (McNeese would have gotten in at 7-4 as an automatic qualifier).

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Agree with the consensus that 7-4 might get you in, but it is not a high probability. Another unsuccessful 7-4 scenario that comes to mind is in 2005 when IIRC UMass, Hofstra and JMU were all 7-4 and didn't make the playoffs. The A-10 reps that year were Richmond and UNH. At the end of that season I truly felt that all three 7-4 teams were just about as good as the Spiders and Wildcats, meaning they were playoff quality teams.

Obviously, all three weren't going to get playoff bids. Hofstra did beat UMass in the season finale so that would be an adequate "tie breaker", but didn't JMU crush Hofstra earlier in the season. And didn't UMass beat JMU? The easiest, least controversial thing for the committee was to leave them all home rather than pick one.

My point is that if you're 7-4, your resume better make you stand out when compared to the other 7-4 teams in what no doubt will be a logjam.

Wren, I think for UNH to have any chance at 7-4, then based on preseason projections their resume must include a win against either JMU, Marshall, UMass or Delaware. IMO, they'll need that type of quality win and there better not be a logjam like in 2005 unless all the top CAA teams are in that 7-4 logjam.