Post Your Preseason Rankings

[dpd]

Here's mine: DPDwiggins FCS Preseason Rankings (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/iaa.htm) xcoffeex

[th0m]

Hmm, what can I say. Definitely a lot of interesting choices. Maine at 9? Or how about 9 CAA teams in the top 25, and ALL of them in the top 31. I mean, I think we're a good conference, but I just don't know if we're that good :o

Furman seems a 'little' underrated.

Where do the numbers come from, by the way?

[proasu89]

Wofford, Furman, and Citadel way underrated. The Catamounts may be overrated at #63. I hope WCU proves me wrong.

[Col Hogan]

Hmm, what can I say. Definitely a lot of interesting choices. Maine at 9? Or how about 9 CAA teams in the top 25, and ALL of them in the top 31. I mean, I think we're a good conference, but I just don't know if we're that good :o

Furman seems a 'little' underrated.

Where do the numbers come from, by the way?

I followed the links and found his explanation...now, I just need to understand it...

For your reading pleasure...

http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/rankexp.htm

[McNeese72]

Wow! The top Southland team is UCA at 22 and the next one is McNeese at 53???

I guess we have some work to do according to these rankings. xsmiley_wix

Doc

[Ronbo]

A team that made the semi's and has 19 starters back is #8 and their conference mate that didn't even make the playoffs and has 10 starters back is #5. Har De Har Har Har! xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[McTailGator]

Here's mine: DPDwiggins FCS Preseason Rankings (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/iaa.htm) xcoffeex

So how long have you been doing this?

You don't have a lot of respect for the SLC do you? xsmhx

McNeese has 3 All-americans (2nd best in the FCS), with a candidate to win the Buck Bucannon Award and we are at 53?! Don't give up your day job. (;

[CID1990]

After next week we'll go back and ask if the placement of Charleston Southern at 28 and The Citadel almost a full 20 places below that was very smart.

[CrazyCat]

You're a brave man dpd. You left out the index of hype which you used for PSU. That's some fuzzy math.

[dpd]

well, i started this thread for people to post their own rankings, not to complain about how their conference is underrepresented in mine, but wth bring it on -
how long have i been doing this? 10 years
fuzzy math? no, strictly matrix regression analysis based on scores from the past few years - yes, there will be many changes when new squads take over each season, which is why pre-season rankings aren't worth too much other than indicate how teams have done in recent years -

if you're interested in seeing how other systems rank fcs teams you could check out Massey's Rankings Comparison Page (http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm) where currently my rankings are in third place as far as correlating to consensus

[CrazyCat]

You lost me at "well." :D xsmiley_wix xthumbsupx

[Seawolf97]

Think I understandxrotatehx

[furman94]

Why Furman so low??

[th0m]

well, i started this thread for people to post their own rankings, not to complain about how their conference is underrepresented in mine, but wth bring it on -
how long have i been doing this? 10 years
fuzzy math? no, strictly matrix regression analysis based on scores from the past few years - yes, there will be many changes when new squads take over each season, which is why pre-season rankings aren't worth too much other than indicate how teams have done in recent years -

if you're interested in seeing how other systems rank fcs teams you could check out Massey's Rankings Comparison Page (http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm) where currently my rankings are in third place as far as correlating to consensus

That Massey's Rankings Comparisson Page has one of the polls out there, Bassett...

They stood out to me since they ranked JMU #1 of FCS. So I look at the entire list, and apparently it ranks all of DI together (fair enough). Guess where we are, #38! In ALL of Division I! Ranked ahead of teams such as Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and rubbing shoulders with Nebraska, UCLA and Texas A&M... xbowx

[BisonBacker]

You know he's lost all credibility when he uses the Massey Ratings to bolster his argument. Sorry DPJ, even though you have NDSU rated about where they should be you are so far off on others but hey your free to predict just like everyone else is.

[Lionsrking]

how long have i been doing this? 10 years
fuzzy math? no, strictly matrix regression analysis based on scores from the past few years - yes, there will be many changes when new squads take over each season, which is why pre-season rankings aren't worth too much other than indicate how teams have done in recent years -


You could have done just as well, if not better, by pulling names out of a hat. Another illustration as to why computers just don't measure up to good ole common sense. One of these days, math & computer geeks will figure out that not everything can be solved with a mathematical formula.

[dpd]

Why Furman so low??

my guess would be losing to montana state by 18 points in the first round of the playoffs last year, combined with that 40-7 shellacking by ASU a month earlier - but at least i still have the paladins in the top 25, lower than most polls but about average among the computer-generated rankings (one has furman ranked number 31) -
if they take care of business against presby and hofstra and make a good showing against clemson i'm sure furman's stock will go up, probably top 15 once conference play starts

oh, and i'm not trying to "solve" anything, i'm just reporting the results from a simple mathematical model for use in comparison with more sophisticated techniques of prognostication

[Saint3333]

my guess would be losing to montana state by 18 points in the first round of the playoffs last year, combined with that 40-7 shellacking by ASU a month earlier - but at least i still have the paladins in the top 25, lower than most polls but about average among the computer-generated rankings (one has furman ranked number 31) -
if they take care of business against presby and hofstra and make a good showing against clemson i'm sure furman's stock will go up, probably top 15 once conference play starts

oh, and i'm not trying to "solve" anything, i'm just reporting the results from a simple mathematical model for use in comparison with more sophisticated techniques of prognostication

How did UMass jump ASU then? RIchmond, Maine, Northeastern, Rhode Island are all overrated and that's just the problems with one conference. Does every CAA team have a "+5" added into the formula...xcoffeex

[proasu89]

You could have done just as well, if not better, by pulling names out of a hat. Another illustration as to why computers just don't measure up to good ole common sense. One of these days, math & computer geeks will figure out that not everything can be solved with a mathematical formula.

xlolx Hey, you stole my scientific method. Maybe the CAA can play for the "Mathmatical Model Matrix Championship" since they seem to grade out so well.

[McNeese75]

Here's mine: DPDwiggins FCS Preseason Rankings (http://dpdsdogs.com/ncaa/iaa.htm) xcoffeex

xrolleyesx xflaggedx xshakingmadx

[dpd]

How did UMass jump ASU then?
They didn't - last year my rankings had UMass beating ASU, and even after inputting that game the numbers still had UMass slightly higher for predictive purposes - however when posting end-of-season results for inclusion in the GPI (see below) i use merit rankings rather than predictive power rankings, so D1 champ Appy State got the final top spot -


Does every CAA team have a "+5" added into the formula...
nope - however conferences like CAAF and SoCon will compute to give rankings higher than Patriot or Southland teams due to strength of schedule -

the GPI (Gridiron Power Index (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/section_front.asp?arttypeid=983)) has been using my rankings for the past five years, and you can check that link as well to see how my rather simple system compares to the other more complicated ranking systems

[Ronbo]

Using last years scores should not weigh very heavily in pre season rankings. Some teams lose many players, others lose their skill players.

The pre season rankings should include in order of importance 1. returning lettermen 2. returning starters 3. returning skill players and all conference players 4. 2006 record 5. Coaching staff and their overall success 6. 2007 schedule.

You put together stats on these 6 areas and I guarantee you'll come up with a pretty accurate ranking.xnodx

This would work for 63 scholarship schools only. Schools that carry less would need to be docked accordingly.

[Bearkatpresident]

nope - however conferences like CAAF and SoCon will compute to give rankings higher than Patriot or Southland teams due to strength of schedule

Lets see....2007 we play Oklahoma State, the year before that we played FBS defending champion UT and SMU as our other FBS school, before that we hosted #1 Montana (at the time), this year we're also playing NDSU this year and they arn't exactly chopped liver.

TSUSM is playing Cal Poly and Baylor this year. And I'm sure McNeese's schedule has some toughies on it as well. Southland schools arn't exactly easy peasy schedules. That's why it's tough to get an at-large bid.

The problem with statistics is that if you WANT a specific result (CAA teams ranking higher for example), you could pull any set of numbers you needed, 'compute it' and come out with the desired result.

[dpd]

last year there were 7 victories by FCS schools over FBS schools (and 71 losses) - one win was from the gateway (go salukis), and there were two each from the big sky, great western, and caaf - of the 14 games where a southland team played, all but three of the losses were by 30 points or more (excepting sfa's 18-pt loss to arizona, nicholls state's 10-pt loss to la tech, and sela's 15-pt loss to nmsu) -
when i say strength of schedule i also mean how well you did against that schedule - i don't think a 53-pt loss to texas or a 62-pt loss to tx tech is going to help very much -

also, in 2006 the southland played 7 schools outside D1 (including sfa's loss to delta state) for an average of 1.0 per team, higher than other conferences (caaf's average last year was 0.33) - this year there are eight non-D1 teams on southland schedules but the number of FBS opponents has bumped up a notch - five from BCS conferences and six from the sunbelt, wac, and cusa - so we'll have to see what happens -

mcneese's ooc opponents this year are portland state, ul-lafayette, southern utah, and south dakota - none of them toughies if you listen to the other slc posters here

i do not *want* a specific result, this is merely a mathematical exercise i keep track of as a hobby

[Lionsrking]

i do not *want* a specific result, this is merely a mathematical exercise i keep track of as a hobby

It's a glaringly flawed excercise.

[dpd]

not for its purpose, which is to demonstrate a simple model -

Ronbo - if you can point me to a site which lists numbers of returning (and lost) lettermen and starters for FCS schools i'll be glad to use it next year when preparing the 2008 preseason rankings - i use the corresponding numbers to adjust FBS rnakings each june when Phil Steele's mag comes out, but haven't found any simlilar type of summary for FCS teams - another stat which would need to be included would be how many FBS transfers a school receives who will immediately become a starter -

[Franks Tanks]

All you have to see to invaildate these ranking in Monmouth ranked ahead of McNeese. Monmouth is a soild up and coming FCS program, but McNeese is one of the FCS power schools, and no way does Monmouth beat McNeese. Also Holy Cross is above Colgate--funny since they are in the same conference and Colgate must have beat The Cross 8 of the last 10 years.

[Ronbo]

not for its purpose, which is to demonstrate a simple model -

Ronbo - if you can point me to a site which lists numbers of returning (and lost) lettermen and starters for FCS schools i'll be glad to use it next year when preparing the 2008 preseason rankings - i use the corresponding numbers to adjust FBS rnakings each june when Phil Steele's mag comes out, but haven't found any simlilar type of summary for FCS teams - another stat which would need to be included would be how many FBS transfers a school receives who will immediately become a starter -

You can get the info from all the teams spring or fall prospectus'. And I believe all media guides also present all the info needed to make an intelligent prediction of success. If you were to use transfers I would put them at #7 as they wash out as much as they are successful. Hard to predict that area. Example: our two hyped CB's are 3rd on the depth charts, we have returning CB's that are better so far. Chris Clark that started as a Freshman at CB then had grade problems and missed his Sophmore season is tearing it up at CB.

[Saint3333]

They didn't - last year my rankings had UMass beating ASU, and even after inputting that game the numbers still had UMass slightly higher for predictive purposes - however when posting end-of-season results for inclusion in the GPI (see below) i use merit rankings rather than predictive power rankings, so D1 champ Appy State got the final top spot -


nope - however conferences like CAAF and SoCon will compute to give rankings higher than Patriot or Southland teams due to strength of schedule -

the GPI (Gridiron Power Index (http://www.collegesportingnews.com/section_front.asp?arttypeid=983)) has been using my rankings for the past five years, and you can check that link as well to see how my rather simple system compares to the other more complicated ranking systems

2 things to note:

1) any calculation that still ranks UMass higher than ASU after December 15th last year needs to be reevaluated for obvious reasons.

2) I have even less faith in the GPI now

Come on these rankings go against every preseason ranking (national and conference made by media and coaches). Not one person with any knowledge of the FCS could believe this is an accurate ranking... $25, an excel formula, and two days learning html does not qualify one to publishing rankings.

[McNeese_beat]

Lets see....2007 we play Oklahoma State, the year before that we played FBS defending champion UT and SMU as our other FBS school, before that we hosted #1 Montana (at the time), this year we're also playing NDSU this year and they arn't exactly chopped liver.

TSUSM is playing Cal Poly and Baylor this year. And I'm sure McNeese's schedule has some toughies on it as well. Southland schools arn't exactly easy peasy schedules. That's why it's tough to get an at-large bid.

The problem with statistics is that if you WANT a specific result (CAA teams ranking higher for example), you could pull any set of numbers you needed, 'compute it' and come out with the desired result.

To be specific about the SLC, it played 15 of its 35 non-conference games against the FBS last year. That's 43 percent of the league's total out of conference schedule and an average of MORE than two guarantee games per team (I'm not counting Central Arkansas).

Yeah, I'd say Northwestern is looking at the observation that the league schedules were easy (considering their games last year at Ole Miss, Kansas and Baylor) and wondering what the hell is the thought process here... and by the way, they'll ponder that as they consider their upcoming games this year at Texas Tech and Ole Miss.

[GSUhooligan]

I think you guys missed the point of the thread. The guy went through a lot of work to put together this model and he wanted to share the results with ya'll. Nobody's life, or season, hangs in the balance of this ranking, its just something fun to look at while bearing the last week before football kicks off. If you guys feel like you can do better, take the time and effort to go through the 120+ rosters, schedules, and results and make your own ranking for the rest of us to tear apart.