Socon week 2 power rankings and picks

[Reign of Terrier]

My Ranking
1) ETSU
2) Samford
3) Furman
4) VMI
5) Wofford
6) Mercer
7) Western
8) Chattanooga
9) The Citadel

Honestly though, I don't have a lot of negative to say. 7 of the 9 teams who played looked good. I guess you could say these rankings right now reflect which teams impressed me the most. Wofford probably had the most mixed performance that didn't lose, but we were a couple mistakes away from both winning by double digits and losing. Mercer I only have at 6 because, well, they did what they needed to against a bad team. Not knocking them, they're just a question mark for now.

Next week's games. I'm going to do this thing where I won't pick them unless I'm sufficiently confident enough.

VMI @ Kent State - toss up
I could see this one going either way. Kent State isn't great and VMI will score points.

Charleston Southern @ The Citadel - toss up
I don't have a lot of confidence in the Citadel, but I also have no idea how good or bad CSU is.

Furman @ Tennessee Tech
In my opinion, Furman is "back." I don't know how good or bad NC A&T is, and I didn't watch that game, but from what I could tell via Twitter, Furman controlled that game and A&T was lucky they didn't lose by worse.

Mercer @ Bama
Just Collect the Check

Western Carolina @ Oklahoma
Just collect the check

Chattanooga @ North Alabama - toss up
Chattanooga didn't look very good against AP, and UNA is a program with pride. I'm inclined to think Chattanooga eeks this one out, but they disappointed me this week. It wasn't that they lost, it's how they lost that bothers me.

Samford @ UT Martin
Samford's offense is going to be too much.

UVA Wise @ ETSU
ETSU just beat an SEC team, I don't see this one as close. UVA wise isn't good either.

Wofford -off

The stakes for the next couple weeks are pretty straight forward. I think the Socon will have three ranked teams going into next week between VMI, ETSU, and Furman (I would be surprised if they didn't get ranked). If VMI beats Kent State, that's great for the conference. But Furman, Samford, and Chattanooga need to carry water. The Citadel beating CSU can't hurt either.

It's possible if Wofford beats Kennesaw (a huge if) that VMI and Wofford could be a top 25 matchup. And glancing at the schedule, Wofford may play 5 consecutive ranked teams starting with KSU.

I can't speak for other teams, but having this many teams ranked and playing each other relatively early will go a long way in terms of earning the Socon some playoff respect via seeding.

[bonarae]

VMI - shootout
The Citadel
Furman
Alabama
Oklahoma
UNA - is Chatty falling apart now?
Samford
ETSU - the momentum is riding in the Bucs' favor; I can see a big blowout for the Bucs?

[FUBeAR]

Let’s review how we did in Week1…

I guess I've put this off about as long as I can...



Away
Home
Prediculation


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/11/30/Coastal_Carolina_Chanticleers_logo_svg.png?width=3 0Coastal Carolina (https://goccusports.com/index.aspx)
Dang, I wish I could pick the bellhops in this one to complete SoCon SWEEP Week, but, alas, I cannot. Chadwell lives, CDC-eviction-protected, inside their collective head(s) and the Beach Cheekins have more talent.
CCU 42 - CIT 14 (Prediculated)

CCU 52 - CIT 14 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/point_logo.png?width=30Point (http://www.pointskyhawks.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
The SkyHawks show up SkyHigh, but they are no Reinhardt. Bears Maul 'em!
Mercer 52 - Point 7 (Prediculated)

Mercer 69 - Point 0 (ACTUAL…and Nice)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Tennessee-Tech.png?width=30Tennessee Tech (http://www.ttusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
Samford is prone to start a bit slow, but with the experience they gained this spring and a veteran crew, they will flash early this season.
Samford 49 - TTU 17 (Prediculated)

Samford 52 - TTU 17 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/ap_monicle_gentleman.png?width=30Austin Peay (http://letsgopeay.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
APSU still getting too much credit for 1 kinda sorta good year. Gov's are governed.
Chattanooga 35 - APSU 14 (Prediculated)

Chattanooga 20 - APSU 30 (ACTUAL)


Saturday, September 4, 2021


Away
Home
Prediculation


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/e20.png?width=30Davidson (http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
Keydets know how to play D against Davy's O, but Mildcats don't have an answer for Herres and VMI's O.
VMI 42 - DC 21 (Prediculated)

VMI 45 - DC 24 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/North-Carolina-AT.png?width=30North Carolina A&T (http://www.ncataggies.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
This is a big one Sports Fans. All will be forgiven for last Spring if the 'Dins get off on the good foot (like JB used to sing it) in this one. It's a war, but the Aggies have a lot of rust to burnish off.
Furman 24 - NC A&T 21 (Prediculated)

Furman 29 - 18 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/elon_logo.png?width=30Elon (http://www.elonphoenix.com/)
Pretty sure both of these squads quit last spring. So, they're both LOSERS in FUBeAR's ledger. No idea what to expect from either of them as they aspire for redemption. Just can't pick the E*Loan Formerly Fightin' Former Christians to win. So...
Wofford 21 - E*Loan 17 (Prediculated)

Wofford 24 - E*Loan 22 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/E%20Logo%20for%20Sidearm.png?width=30Eastern Kentucky (http://www.ekusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
What Catamount fans are expecting to be their "Shock the World" tour gets off to a good start.
WCU 31 - EKU 24 (Prediculated)

WCU 28 - EKU 31 (ACTUAL)


https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Vanderbilt_Commodores.png?width=30Vanderbilt (http://www.vucommodores.com/)
If the Commode-Doors look anything like they did last Fall, the Mountain Pirates will run their ship aground. They do and the Bucs pick up FBS Scalp #1 for 2021 (BUT...ONLY if they listen to FUBeAR and NEVER pass the ball)
ETSU 20 - VU 14 (Prediculated)

ETSU 23 - VU 3 (ACTUAL)



Power Rankings (WEEK1)
1a) Furman
1b) Mercer
3) Samford
4) Chattanooga
5) VMI
6) ETSU
7) WCU
8) CIT
9) WoffyPretty darn prescient, with the exception of falling for Chatt’s blatant, and, apparently, hollow self-righteous, self-aggrandizing self-promotion. Fooled me once…

So, since the game picks were so close in Week1, it only follows that FUBeAR’s PowerRankings are also on the money…with a couple of small tweaks (see below)…

Power Rankings (WEEK2)
1a) Furman
1b) Mercer
3) Samford
4) ETSU
5) VMI
6) WCU
7) CIT
8) Woffy
9) Chatt

…FUBeAR’s picks later in the week

[Reign of Terrier]

Let’s review how we did in Week1…
Pretty darn prescient, with the exception of falling for Chatt’s blatant, and, apparently, hollow self-righteous self-promotion. Fooled me once…

So, since the game picks were so close in Week1, it only follows that FUBeAR’s PowerRankings are also on the money…with a couple of small tweaks (see below)…

Power Rankings (WEEK2)
1a) Furman
1b) Mercer
3) Samford
4) ETSU
5) VMI
6) WCU
7) CIT
8) Woffy
9) Chatt

…FUBeAR’s picks later in the week

That's actually really impressive. You must be playing golf with the executive producer or something

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

I was 6-3 this past week. Was really hoping beyond hope that WCU would kick things off with a win but I was beyond happy that my alma mater scored their first-ever SEC scalp. Since it is still too early, let's group them in terms of winners and losers.

WINNER WINNER CHICKEN DINNER
1) ETSU - taking down a member of the most powerful conference lands you here
2) Samford - boatraced their way to victory
3) Furman - announced their return most trimuphant
4) VMI - started off their season with a boatracing
5) Mercer - kicked off their season with a nomination for Burnination of the Week
6) Wofford - beat Elon, meh

THE GOOD LOSERS
1) The Citadel - well the Chadwellcleers are a Top 25 FBS team, what do you think?
2) Western Carolina - gave a valiant effort
3) Chattanooga - should be thanked for confirming my suspicion about them

This Week's Games
VMI @ Kent State - Keydets' opponent is no flash in the pan
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel - the team formerly coached by Jamey Chadwell no match against the Bulldogs
Furman @ Tennessee Tech - Paladins win and win bigly
Mercer @ Alabama - wish the Bears Godspeed and Go Bucs!
Western Carolina @ Oklahoma - see Mercer @ Alabama
Chattanooga @ North Alabama - Is Chattanooga about to revert to Chattaquitta?
Samford @ UT Martin - Bammerdogs take care of business on the road
UVA-Wise @ ETSU (Trogdor.com Burnination of the Week) - Randy Sanders is Wahoo's their daddy.

[PaladinNation]

Let's see some video recaps from some of the SoCon Games.
Furman's week one:
https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1434561101228826626

[Blazrdog1]

Keep placing them less than number one! It's just motivational fuel!!!xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

I for one do not want my college football team to care what strangers on the internet have to think

[SU DOG]

Keep placing them less than number one! It's just motivational fuel!!!xnodx

Oh good laudy, when did you get back?

[ElCid]

It was a decent week for the SOCON.

Power rankings, not necessarily just their record, but their overall perceived potential as well

1) ETSU – Yup, they are rock stars
2) Samford – looked real good, but competition was, eh
3) Furman – had flashes of brilliance
4) VMI – Still too early to tell if they are for real again, but they looked ok
5) Chattanooga – They looked out of sorts against an above average team; I don’t think Chatty is as bad as folks think
6) Mercer – hard to tell with their competition, but they did what they were supposed to do
7) Wofford – Yes, they won, but not sure how bad Elon really is, and they almost lost
8) Western- WCU did ok and put up a good fight, but not sure they have arrived yet; they did run 82 plays though, and got 500+ yards, in 29 minutes of possession; things are a changing in the mountains
9) The Citadel – We looked slow and sloppy, but first game out against a good team, this week will tell if we stay at the bottom

Predictions

VMI at Kent State – I could have sworn they had played before, but all those MAC teams look alike; first meeting apparently; If the FCS had not gotten any scalps this past week, then I would say they had a chance. But the warning flags are out. Woe be to any mediocre FBS team who loses this coming week to an FCS team. Kent will be primed for VMI and their 2019 team wasn’t bad. They will try and make a statement that they are not vulnerable to an FCS team, but the Keydets keep it respectable – 38-21

Charleston Southern at The Citadel – This isn’t your big brother’s CSU team. If we can control the line of scrimmage and sustain drives, we can wear them down; we only had a few penalties and no turnovers this past week; I am still a little concerned about our QBs ability to pass the ball with any consistency; but at least we know we have a capable backup QB; I am not too excited about our current crop of running backs either; they are all capable enough, but none seem very inspired; or it could just be that our play calling has been entirely too predictable; we have got to open it up a bit with a credible pass threat; my only big concern is our passing D right now; it looks in shambles - 31-20

Furman at Tennessee Tech – Furman’s own worst enemy is itself; they can win this easily if they stay focused, I think they got some confidence this past week – 35-17

Mercer at Alabama – Whatever score the Tide wants it to be; I’m just curious if Mercer can tie them up at half, like another team that we all know did in the not too distant past… - 63-3

Western Carolina at Oklahoma – Again, whatever the Sooners want it to be; BUT, they got Nebraska the following week and they haven’t played them in over ten years so they might just overlook WCU, a little; the Cats could at least shock them a tad the first half…only to be steamrolled the second half – 49-13

Chattanooga at North Alabama - N Alabama gave SELA fits last week in the first half before they got overwhelmed; if UTC lets them stay in it too long and gives them the lead, they are doomed, especially since this is a good team on a mission to prove themselves; are the Mocs good enough to fend them off? They better be or they are toast this season; I think they do just enough – 28-27

Samford at UT Martin – I think Samford may be on a mission this year; mediocrity has taken its toll; but UT Martin isn’t Tenn Tech either and Samford isn’t a great road team so it might be closer than they hope – 24-17

UVA-Wise at ETSU – ETSU will get their backups lots of practice, after they get a comfortable 6 score lead – 55-7

Wofford - IDLE

[Reign of Terrier]

I watched the Furman-A&T game. Furman looked really good at times and (like Wofford against Elon), made some boneheaded mistakes that nearly put A&T back into it. They looked a lot better than they did in the spring. Having said that, it's also worth remembering that it was A&T's first game in 623 or so days.

As I said, based on what we say this past week, this is my power ranking:
1) ETSU
2) Samford
3) Furman
4) VMI
5) Wofford
6) Mercer
7) Western
8) Chattanooga
9) The Citadel

But my theory of the case is that the socon is going to look more like this, when the dust settles:
Top Tier:
ETSU
Samford
Furman
Wofford

Middle Tier:
Chattanooga
Mercer
VMI

Bottom Tier:
Western
The Citadel
(they will be very competitive though)

My point is: I know that Wofford and Furman had a weird/bad spring, but I don't have much reason to think they'll be worse than they were in 2019. If ETSU or VMI surpass them this year, it's because they're legit, and they did look solid in Week One. I'm not sold that VMI will accomplish that: they were this close in the Spring to being a 4 loss team. And Samford could beat everyone in the conference, but they find a way to not-win, so they're the wild card. I wouldn't be too surprised if Mercer or Chattanooga creeped into the top tier (especially Chatt), but right now UTC's week one performance usurped my entire perception of who they were in the Spring. Mercer is the wildest of wild cards. I think the bottom tier will only be "bottom" not because they are head and shoulders below middle tier, but because they just lose those games. Western looked a lot better against EKU, but they still have a way to go.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think if the Socon plays its cards right in OOC, it can be a 3 or 4 bid league.

And I'll be honest: I take it as a given that Furman, Samford, and ETSU will take care of business in their FCS OOC. So, it's really going to come down to Wofford, Chattanooga, and VMI. If the Terriers can beat Kennesaw State, UTC can beat UNA, and VMI can beat Cornell or Kent State or both, the top 4 in the conference will probably have at least 7 D1 wins and at least one or two quality wins, either in or out of conference.

More importantly, it'll improve their bubble standing because it's likely that KSU and A&T are going to be at the top of the Big South (The Citadel can also make noise here). It's going to be hard to put a second place Big South team ahead of the third place Southern Conference team when they lack that quality OOC win.

Obviously, all of this may also depend on the teams the socon has beaten giving an impressive performance, so I'll give a vanilla prediction:

If the Socon cleans house this weekend and against Kennesaw on the 19th, they are three bid league *so long as we don't cannibalize each other during conference play.* I'd say Wofford and probably VMI have the hardest tasks in OOC with KSU and a wildcard Cornell.

[Smitty]

Surprised to see Wofford already has a bye week this early in the season.

[Reign of Terrier]

We usually have one the first month of the year (I think in 2019, it was in week 3). This one is probably a week or two early, but I'll take it considering the spring was still rough.

[The Cats]

VMI at Kent State
Charleston Southern at The Citadel
Furman at Tennessee Tech
Mercer at Alabama
Western Carolina at Oklahoma
Chattanooga at North Alabama
Samford at UT Martin
UVA Wise at ETSU


power rankings - https://catamountsportsblog.blogspot.com/

[walliver]

VMI at Kent State - The Keydets keep it respectable, but I don't see another FBS scalp here. Kent State wins 28-24.

Charleston Southern at the Citadel - I no longer keep up with the Big South the way I used to and really know nothing about CSU, so I will go with a 33-20 Bullpup victory.

Furman at Tennessee tech - The Paladins won't score as much as Sammy last week, but will score more than enough to win 31-17

Mercer at Alabama - This time the cubbies are on the other side of the mismatch in a 63-7 Tide win

WCU at Oklahoma - After the Okies scare last week, they will come ready to play and run over the Cants 77-21

Chattanooga at North Alabama - The Mocs regroup and make tUNA salad in a 28-17 Chatty win

Samford at UT-Martin - The Bullpups should score lots of points, but occasionally they inexplicably don't. They still win 31-20.

UVA-Wise at ETSU - The Mountain Pirates may have a little let-down after last week, but still pull out a 42-3 win.

Wofford at BYE - A poor second half offensive effort (like just about every second half in the 2021 calendar year), allows BYE to keep this one closer than it should be.


It's still too early for power ratings, but ETSU, Furman, and Samford stand out.

[SU DOG]

This UTM game scares the crap out of me. For one thing, I didn't see the running game nor the defensive improvements that I had hoped for against TTU. I know it's nuts to be negative with a 52-14 win, but with all due respect, Tech is one WEAK team this year. Our depth and our offense took their toll, and the Eagles were spent in the 2nd half. Martin has 13 FBS xfers and 8 are from P5 schools. A bunch of these guys have been added since the Spring. A 6-6, 270 pound LB that originally signed with Bama is now a Skyhawk. This 5***** guy was rated #4 overall recruit, and the #2 LB in the country! Their new QB is a Tulane xfer who is a definite dual threat. OK, so they were blown out at WKU. Watch the rerun, however, and it is obvious that the score is not indicative of the talent level on this UTM team. Then, there is the Samford history of not being able to put together enough wins to be a contender.

I wish I was sandbagging, but I'm just being honest. I would jump at the offer of a ONE point win!!!

[PaladinNation]

SU Dog - Good luck we all need to win these OOC games.

I'll be curious to see how TTU handles Furman.
I checked the play count for Samford offensive plays (76) against TTU.
Furman, this surprises me, had (80) offensive plays against A&T.
The weird thing about Furman's offensive performance,
two scores can on what Furman calls explosion plays over 40 yards.

[ElCid]

This UTM game scares the crap out of me. For one thing, I didn't see the running game nor the defensive improvements that I had hoped for against TTU. I know it's nuts to be negative with a 52-14 win, but with all due respect, Tech is one WEAK team this year. Our depth and our offense took their toll, and the Eagles were spent in the 2nd half. Martin has 13 FBS xfers and 8 are from P5 schools. A bunch of these guys have been added since the Spring. A 6-6, 270 pound LB that originally signed with Bama is now a Skyhawk. This 5***** guy was rated #4 overall recruit, and the #2 LB in the country! Their new QB is a Tulane xfer who is a definite dual threat. OK, so they were blown out at WKU. Watch the rerun, however, and it is obvious that the score is not indicative of the talent level on this UTM team. Then, there is the Samford history of not being able to put together enough wins to be a contender.

I wish I was sandbagging, but I'm just being honest. I would jump at the offer of a ONE point win!!!

There are reasons they transfered. Sure it might not be ability in every case, but just think about that a little. I'm not convinced every FBS transfer is a god-like creature. A few maybe, but most...no. You guys should win.

[Reign of Terrier]

I refuse to make predictions about any game Samford plays. They are the Atlanta Falcons of the Socon. They have a way of getting one's hopes up and then finding a way to lose, in spite of having among the most NFL players on active rosters right now among FCS teams.

[SU DOG]

I refused to make predictions about any game Samford plays. They are the Atlanta Falcons of the Socon. They have a way of getting one's hopes up and then finding a way to lose, in spite of having among the most NFL players on active rosters right now among FCS teams.

Yep, most every year we Samford Fans are left to lament over what could, and should have been.

[wcugrad95]

Still way too early for me to tell about power rankings - the teams that won maybe played really bad teams while the teams that lost maybe played really good teams. We just don't know yet. That being said, I will go with WCU being one of the most improved. We got crushed by EKU 49-17 just a few short months ago where we gave up 590 yards and only gained 255. Saturday we gained 501 and gave up 361 in a game that a couple of turnovers and some bad penalties probably turned a 10-point win into a 3-point loss. WCU may lose a lot of close games this year and our record might not look way different than the past few seasons, but I believe this team can and will be competitive in all of the FCS games we play and may surprise a few teams. And that gives the Catamount faithful something we haven't had in a long time - hope.

That being said, just purely on numbers I'd agree with most on here that the impressive wins start with ETSU and Samford, then a pack of teams who won are next, and because wins matter the teams that are 0-1 have to be at the bottom. I just feel better about WCU's loss than I normally would.

[FUBeAR]

…just purely on numbers I'd agree with most on here that the impressive wins start with ETSU and Samford, then a pack of teams who won are next…So…Samford’s win over an OVC ‘also-ran’ Team is better than Furman’s win over a ranked Big South Team?

I can get swinging VMI’s win over PFL Champion, Davidson, into either the “impressive wins” or “pack of teams who won” category depending on how you might evaluate the PFL Champion, in general. FUBeAR, recalling that PFL Champions have recently knocked Big Sky Teams out of the Playoffs, is going to chalk that one into the “impressive wins” category as well.

But, I really don’t understand how anyone can leave FU’s win over NC A&T off of an “impressive wins” list.

[SU DOG]

Catamount fans should be feeling good. In watching the EKU game, I was impressed by how much better this team looked than in the past. Definitely WCU will be the most improved in the SoCon for sure. To me, this team showed it was so much better fundamentally than previously. Play calling, schemes, and getting into a rhythm were obviously really improved. Summed up in one word, of course, it is the coaching that has made the difference.

[wcugrad95]

Again - 3 or 4 weeks from now all of these wins and losses will be more understandable. Some will look a lot better and some will look not as impressive. Same with losses (is UTC bad or is Austin Peay really good???). I thought FU at home against A&T would win, and they did. I thought Samford would win, but I didn't expect it to be by more than 5 TDs. I thought ETSU would give Vandy a battle but not hold them to 3 points in a runaway FBS scalping. I think we can agree that pretty much all wins are good, and Furman's win was good for the conference as well. But to me, those two wins are what stood out.

[ElCid]

So…Samford’s win over an OVC ‘also-ran’ Team is better than Furman’s win over a ranked Big South Team?

I can get swinging VMI’s win over PFL Champion, Davidson, into either the “impressive wins” or “pack of teams who won” category depending on how you might evaluate the PFL Champion, in general. FUBeAR, recalling that PFL Champions have recently knocked Big Sky Teams out of the Playoffs, is going to chalk that one into the “impressive wins” category as well.

But, I really don’t understand how anyone can leave FU’s win over NC A&T off of an “impressive wins” list.

I think it was a good win, but we won't really know until a couple more games. And I'm not sure they actually should have been ranked. But NC A&T hadn't played a down in 20+ months. I think it will prove to be a good win because they are a solid team. I think Sanford's impressive was was due to its margin. VMI's win was just expected.

[Catamount87]

I'll skip power rankings until week three. Teams usually take a couple of games to really show where they are at.

Predictions:

VMI at Kent St: Could this be a repeat of ETSU last week? I don't see it but expect it to be close.
CSU at Citadel: Dawgs claim the title in Charleston
Furman at TTU: This might be a lot closer than expected but I'll give the nod to the Dins.
Mercer at Bama: Paycheck collection #1 for the week
WCU at OK: Paycheck collection #2 for the week
UTC at UNA: UTC but don't be surprised if NA keeps it close for awhile
Samford at UTM: UTM might be better than we think
UVA-wise at ETSU: The wise choice here, ETSU by a lot

[FUBeAR]

Pooh-Pooh

SoCon had 1 exceptional win (ETSU), 2 strong wins over FCS Conf Champs (FU & VMI), a dominating FCS win (SAM), a win of uncertain, but likely good quality (WOF), an expected, dominating win (MER) last week.

On the other side of the ledger, WCU lost a close one under difficult circumstances, but showed much improvement & promise, CIT was, unfortunately, run out of the stadium by a ranked FBS Team, and ChattaQuitta embarrassed themselves and the SoCon in the ugliest, sloppiest game I saw last week.

[Reign of Terrier]

So…Samford’s win over an OVC ‘also-ran’ Team is better than Furman’s win over a ranked Big South Team?

I can get swinging VMI’s win over PFL Champion, Davidson, into either the “impressive wins” or “pack of teams who won” category depending on how you might evaluate the PFL Champion, in general. FUBeAR, recalling that PFL Champions have recently knocked Big Sky Teams out of the Playoffs, is going to chalk that one into the “impressive wins” category as well.

But, I really don’t understand how anyone can leave FU’s win over NC A&T off of an “impressive wins” list.

I'm not sold on NC A&T being good yet, mainly because of the 20 month layover. But it can be the case that A&T is not as great as advertised and that Furman looked really good as well. I've noticed over the last couple of years that people focus too much on stats: yardage and score and "how good your opponent is" in an objective sense, when there are parts of the game we can't see unless you look for them.

Teams get better over the course of the year, and the least you can expect in week one is teams to look fundamentally sound and to avoid dumb mistakes. And the inverse is, if you're a bad or not-quite-there team, the best you can ask for is to be in a position to win or make it competitive. A good example of this is Wofford in 2019: we didn't look so great in week 1 and 2, but we were clearly the best in the conference by the end of the year.

Both Wofford and Furman made some mistakes that made their games closer - almost to the point of losing. That's bad, but outside of those mistakes, they were also really close to winning big.

For me, in week one, I don't care how good A&T and Elon are, I care that the socon teams won and that week one mistakes only made things looks more competitive. I think if these teams lined up again in week 4 or 5 all teams would be better but the socon teams would have won more easily.


Again - 3 or 4 weeks from now all of these wins and losses will be more understandable. Some will look a lot better and some will look not as impressive. Same with losses (is UTC bad or is Austin Peay really good???). I thought FU at home against A&T would win, and they did. I thought Samford would win, but I didn't expect it to be by more than 5 TDs. I thought ETSU would give Vandy a battle but not hold them to 3 points in a runaway FBS scalping. I think we can agree that pretty much all wins are good, and Furman's win was good for the conference as well. But to me, those two wins are what stood out.

What people don't realize is that, historically, the Socon has not done well with OOC in the last 10 years or so. We've either scheduled money games (2+ FBS teams and an NAIA team), unimpressive FCS teams (that we can't help are unimpressive), or lost against impressive ones. Put simply, the list of socon teams that both won all of their FCS OOC games, didn't schedule an NAIA team, and broke at least .500 in Socon play is pretty small.

As a matter of fact, if you back in the last 10 years or so, the at large socon teams have gone 20-3 in FCS OOC games during the regular season. And the 3 losses were to eventual playoff teams (2013 SELA, 2015 CSU, 2017 Elon).

So, I'm honestly just impressed in general with all of the performances thus far (with the exception of Chattanooga) because what we're seeing is consistent with a 3 or 4 team playoff conference. And as already mentioned, APSU will probably win the OVC, so even the chattanooga loss isn't a season-ender.

Once the OOC slate is done, I'm going to do a recent-historical analysis on the socon's OOC performance, but I'm pretty sure we've never beaten this many "decent "FCS OOC teams, played this few NAIA teams, while also winning this many FBS games. That's the take away thus far. We have a huge sample, we can't parse who's is better or worse relative to previous years because we have so much positive data.


Pooh-Pooh

SoCon had 1 exceptional win (ETSU), 2 strong wins over FCS Conf Champs (FU & VMI), a dominating FCS win (SAM), a win of uncertain, but likely good quality (WOF), an expected, dominating win (MER) last week.

On the other side of the ledger, WCU lost a close one under difficult circumstances, but showed much improvement & promise, CIT was, unfortunately, run out of the stadium by a ranked FBS Team, and ChattaQuitta embarrassed themselves and the SoCon in the ugliest, sloppiest game I saw last week.

I think it's too early to say what wins were good or exceptional in week one.

[ElCid]

SoCon had 1 exceptional win (ETSU), 2 strong wins over FCS Conf Champs (FU & VMI), a dominating FCS win (SAM), a win of uncertain, but likely good quality (WOF), an expected, dominating win (MER) last week.

On the other side of the ledger, WCU lost a close one under difficult circumstances, but showed much improvement & promise, CIT was, unfortunately, run out of the stadium by a ranked FBS Team, and ChattaQuitta embarrassed themselves and the SoCon in the ugliest, sloppiest game I saw last week.




I think it's too early to say what wins were good or exceptional in week one.


Exactly. We certainly should not look too deeply into week 1 results yet.

However, no matter how things turn out for Vandy, it is always exceptional to get a win over a P5. But I would not characterize a win over NC A&T or Davidson as strong until we know a bit more. Good wins? Sure. But A&T could end up being a BS doormat this year. They could also win the conf. Time will reveal all. Davidson is Pioneer. Nuf said. I like Samford's dominating win, BUT, their Dr. Jekyll side may appear at any time. The Elon win could go either way. They are fairly schizoid lately as well. WCU is improved for sure, but we won't know how much until about week 4 for them. I think the Mocs had some opening game issues. Had they played Davidson, they have very well thumped them like VMI did. We will know a lot more after this next game if they are all talk. Likewise for my Bulldogs. Ranked opponent or not, we looked a bit stiff and not ready for prime time. Mercer's win was as expected, but with only 10 games, and Alabama next week, they aren't helping the OOC stats much. For the rest OOC situation...

I am not overly pleased by playing N Greenville this year. They are a decent DII team, but it doesn't help much. That gave us one FCS OOC and a mediocre one to boot, in addition to a ranked FBS.

ETSU gets a pass for UVA-Wise with the Vandy win.

Everyone else got two OOC FCS and an FBS. And of all 9 FBS games, 5 are currently ranked, two others are receiving votes (only Kent St and Vandy are out in the cold).

Elon, KSU, Tn-Martin, AP, Tenn Tech (2), EKU, UNA, CSU, NC A&T, Davidson, Cornell, G-W, and Del St are our FCS OOC opponents this year. The highest one in the Massey computer is APeay at 30. The lowest is Davidson at 120 (out of 128). But those will no doubt change. Still not an impressive slate. Only three were or are ranked by the coaches poll, and three others are receiving votes. In the AGS poll, which we all know is more accurate, only one is ranked, one dropped out, and only one other is receiving votes.

[SU DOG]

My picks:

VMI @ Kent State - Keydets will play them close, but come up short.
CSU @ The Citadel - The Citadel needs this one badly, I'll take them.
FU @ TTU - Paladins. If they struggle against this TTU team, that bodes badly for them.
Mercer @ Bama - Detour the Bears' bus through Atlanta to pick up the Falcons, and they still might come up short.
WCU @ Oklahoma - Sooners. The new Cats coach may be good, but no way here.
UTC @ UNA - Mocs. Surely they will want to redeem themselves.
UVA-Wise @ ETSU - No problem for ETSU.
SAMFORD @ UTM - Heart has to say Dogs, but the defense will have to rise above past performances. UTM is VERY talented. A win for Samford here will certainly be a big encouragement for the season. Crossroads game, IMO.

[FUBeAR]

Remind me never to hire some of you guys into a Sales/Marketing role

#RankingLivesMatter

[ElCid]

Remind me never to hire some of you guys into a Sales/Marketing role

#RankingLivesMatter

I have an anti-Sales/Marketing nature. The best sales/marketing pitch is accuracy.

[FUBeAR]

The best sales/marketing pitch is accuracy.
Possibly true if you’re selling something with standard technical specifications to an Engineer or an Accountant. Willing to wager most SportsWriters & Football Coaches fit into neither of these categories & we dang sure know there are no standard technical specifications involved with FCS Rankings and/or Playoff Selection Committee Members’ decisions.

[Reign of Terrier]

Remind me never to hire some of you guys into a Sales/Marketing role

#RankingLivesMatter

Oh I work marketing, got a degree in it. I have to know the bad arguments so when I know which one's I'm lying about when I use themxsmiley_wix

But on a serious note, I think we're all making the wrong argument. I don't think we really need to care about the quality of the teams we've beaten in week one, what we need to boast about is the body of work. Because quite frankly, 2-3 years ago, people complained that the Socon OOC was too soft, playing PC and GW, etc. Well now we've gone out and scheduled multiple teams that have made the playoffs (or in A&T's case "bowl games"). It's not our fault that they may suck now, but to concede the point that the quality matters is to let the critics move the goal posts.

We did what they wanted 2-3 years ago and now it's not good enough? Yeah right. And now that GW looks a little decent right now (given how they played FBS Georgia Southern) and PC is throwing the ball all over the yard, we should go back? No. These critics won't be pleased unless we schedule a very expensive home-in-home trip to a team out on the Pacific Northwest or the plains. Maybe that's a viable option for state-supported schools and programs with huge box office ticket sales, but leaving the east coast is not really financially in the cards for most of these programs (after all, the point of FCS football, believe it or not, is not to win national championships but to <shock> provide athletes with a shot at a free education).

Socon has good ball, as far as I'm concerned. How good each team is in rank order isn't going to be extrapolated from game film, it's going to be settled on the field. Don't worry about how good Elon, A&T, etc are. Just root for the Socon to lose no more than 1-2 OOC FCS games this season. I ran the numbers, and the last time we 80%+ in FCS OOC, we got 4 in the playoffs. This year, we've won 4, lost 2, have 8 remaining, 4 of which I think we should be favored, 4 of which are toss ups (2 of which I think we win UTC/UNA and VMI/Cornell).

Bottom line, I think we'll be able to say by the end of September that the Socon either had it's best OOC year by way of winning percentage or it's second best since App/GSU left *and* and FBS victory.

If we can pull this off, we're a 4 bid league.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer @ Bama - Detour the Bears' bus through Atlanta to pick up the Falcons, and they still might come up short.
That’s pretty good SU DOG.

Now they could, without detouring, go through Atlanta and do as you suggest…

…OR…

…they could just take their “Shock the World” tour bus through Columbus, GA & Montgomery, AL rolling up the tide of their momentum as they go and paralyze the pachyderms with their own Players.


Remember last week - All y’all (except maybe 1 Bucs homer & FUBeAR) were too skeert to pic ETSU to slam the Big Bad SEC CommodeDores shut last week….thought because they were SEC that the game was over before it started…


FUBeAR: What? Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until the SoCon decides it is! Was it over when the bellhops bombed the Cocks? Hell no!...
It ain't over now, 'cause when the goin' gets tough, the tough get goin'. Who's with me? Let's go! Come on!...(No AGS SoCon posters follow…)

FUBeAR (returning to the site): What the f--k happened to the SoCon AGS I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? This could be the greatest upset pick of our Football lives, but you're gonna let it be the wimpiest. 'Ooh, we're afraid to pick the Bears with you, FUBeAR, we might be mistaken. Well, just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Saban, he's a dead man! Young, dead! Williams…


Note: FUBeAR’s weekly picks are still pending

[FUBeAR]

Oh I work marketing, got a degree in it. I have to know the bad arguments so when I know which one's I'm lying about when I use themxsmiley_wix

But on a serious note, I think we're all making the wrong argument. I don't think we really need to care about the quality of the teams we've beaten in week one, what we need to boast about is the body of work. Because quite frankly, 2-3 years ago, people complained that the Socon OOC was too soft, playing PC and GW, etc. Well now we've gone out and scheduled multiple teams that have made the playoffs (or in A&T's case "bowl games"). It's not our fault that they may suck now, but to concede the point that the quality matters is to let the critics move the goal posts.

We did what they wanted 2-3 years ago and now it's not good enough? Yeah right. And now that GW looks a little decent right now (given how they played FBS Georgia Southern) and PC is throwing the ball all over the yard, we should go back? No. These critics won't be pleased unless we schedule a very expensive home-in-home trip to a team out on the Pacific Northwest or the plains. Maybe that's a viable option for state-supported schools and programs with huge box office ticket sales, but leaving the east coast is not really financially in the cards for most of these programs (after all, the point of FCS football, believe it or not, is not to win national championships but to <shock> provide athletes with a shot at a free education).

Socon has good ball, as far as I'm concerned. How good each team is in rank order isn't going to be extrapolated from game film, it's going to be settled on the field. Don't worry about how good Elon, A&T, etc are. Just root for the Socon to lose no more than 1-2 OOC FCS games this season. I ran the numbers, and the last time we 80%+ in FCS OOC, we got 4 in the playoffs. This year, we've won 4, lost 2, have 8 remaining, 4 of which I think we should be favored, 4 of which are toss ups (2 of which I think we win UTC/UNA and VMI/Cornell).

Bottom line, I think we'll be able to say by the end of September that the Socon either had it's best OOC year by way of winning percentage or it's second best since App/GSU left *and* and FBS victory.

If we can pull this off, we're a 4 bid league.Oh…so we’re going to sell our R&D pipeline or our Features Roadmap? You must be applying that Woffy Mktg degree in Big Pharma or Software.

Our “buyers” are easily swayed emotional consumers. Beating a recent HBCU National Champion & a couple of previous season Conference Champions & SEC Teams are HUGE events that should have rec’d more acknowledgement from our “buyers.” Instead, only the SEC victory moved the needle. If our “buyers” were more aware that Furman beat that SEC giant-slayer a couple of months before taking down an HBCU National Champion, the tide might have lifted at least 1 SoCon boat…which would have, eventually, lifted others. Heck, VMI dropped by demolishing a FCS Conf Champion Playoff Team that played a perennial power/ranked/playoff Team about even for a half in their 1st-ever Playoff appearance. That ain’t right. Furman & Samford should be ranked right with ETSU & VMI right now…and both of those are ranked too low.

People are talking that ‘maybe, maybe, just maybe, the SoCon, this year, just might exceed expectations and, somehow, be a 2 bid league.’ There are/will be probably 5 or 6 Playoff worthy SoCon Teams this year. Ish ain’t right, but keep talking down FU’s and VMI’s wins. Good plan.

[Reign of Terrier]

Oh…so we’re going to sell our R&D pipeline or our Features Roadmap? You must be applying that Woffy Mktg degree in Big Pharma or Software.

Our “buyers” are easily swayed emotional consumers. Beating a recent HBCU National Champion & a couple of previous season Conference Champions & SEC Teams are HUGE events that should have rec’d more acknowledgement from our “buyers.” Instead, only the SEC victory moved the needle. If our “buyers” were more aware that Furman beat that SEC giant-slayer a couple of months before taking down an HBCU National Champion, the tide might have lifted at least 1 SoCon boat…which would have, eventually, lifted others. Heck, VMI dropped by demolishing a FCS Conf Champion Playoff Team that played a perennial power/ranked/playoff Team about even for a half in their 1st-ever Playoff appearance. That ain’t right. Furman & Samford should be ranked right with ETSU & VMI right now…and both of those are ranked too low.

People are talking that ‘maybe, maybe, just maybe, the SoCon, this year, just might exceed expectations and, somehow, be a 2 bid league.’ There are/will be probably 5 or 6 Playoff worthy SoCon Teams this year. Ish ain’t right, but keep talking down FU’s and VMI’s wins. Good plan.

Well, ya see, I'm prepping the media blitz for when the socon cleans house this weekend OOC (including VMI) setting up Wofford for five consecutive wins against ranked teams in consecutive weeks, starting with KSU. Four Bid Socon, Top 4 seed Wofford. :D

[Reign of Terrier]

What Needs To Happen For a 3-Bid Socon:
1) Socon cleans house this weekend (VMI can lose and it not hurt)
2) Easily Defined Hierarchy in conference play: Having One team at the top 7-1 or 8-0 (maybe two at 7-1), but having multiple at 5-3 or greater.
3) the conference champ goes undefeated in FCS OOC (so please not Chatt)

What Needs to Happen for a 4-bid Socon:
1) The Above
2) Wofford, Samford, ETSU, VMI, Furman, Chattanooga, and the Citadel don't lose another OOC FCS game (that'll be hardest for Wofford, VMI, and Chattanooga)

What Needs to Happen for a 5-bid Socon (this is much much less probable)
1) All of the Above
2) VMI beats Kent State this weekend
3) WCU beats GW in a few weeks
4) Whatever teams end up being ranked don't lose to teams that aren't ranked
5) all games among the top 5 are close
6) Wofford/Furman/ETSU are in the 4/5 slot with Elon/A&T/KSU going on to do good things in their conference.

My money is on at least 3. Five is very unlikely (I don't think Western beats GW, and I don't see #6 happening, as I think none of them finish lower than 4th). Four is definitely possible if Socon cleans house.

It's pretty much that simple. The FCS voters and committee likes simple narratives and clear-cut favorites. They won't appreciate the Socon's depth and quality until mid-way through the season, and once that happens chaos is your enemy.

They also have a bias for teams that are perennially in the playoffs (Wofford is a team that consistently doesn't need 8 D1 wins to make the playoffs historically), so our best bet (for four) is to have Wofford, Furman, ETSU, and Samford at the top (not necessarily in that order - heck, having stalwart Wofford 4th at 7-4 with a win against a quality Elon/KSU team would probably clinch 4 bit socon).

I'm sure Chattanooga is capable of making a playoff run or making noise in the playoffs, but given all of the above, I'll be rooting against them. To a lesser degree, that's true about the Citadel, VMI, and Mercer.

I'm rooting for the outcomes that create 4 bid socon, because I think a clear-cut 4 bid socon is more likely to happen than a 5 bid socon, which circumstances could make a 3 or 2 bid socon equally likely because the committee hates us.

[ElCid]

That’s pretty good SU DOG.

Now they could, without detouring, go through Atlanta and do as you suggest…

…OR…

…they could just take their “Shock the World” tour bus through Columbus, GA & Montgomery, AL rolling up the tide of their momentum as they go and paralyze the pachyderms with their own Players.


Remember last week - All y’all (except maybe 1 Bucs homer & FUBeAR) were too skeert to pic ETSU to slam the Big Bad SEC CommodeDores shut last week….thought because they were SEC that the game was over before it started…


FUBeAR: What? Over? Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until the SoCon decides it is! Was it over when the bellhops bombed the Cocks? Hell no!...
It ain't over now, 'cause when the goin' gets tough, the tough get goin'. Who's with me? Let's go! Come on!...(No AGS SoCon posters follow…)

FUBeAR (returning to the site): What the f--k happened to the SoCon AGS I used to know? Where's the spirit? Where's the guts, huh? This could be the greatest upset pick of our Football lives, but you're gonna let it be the wimpiest. 'Ooh, we're afraid to pick the Bears with you, FUBeAR, we might be mistaken. Well, just kiss my ass from now on! Not me! I'm not gonna take this. Saban, he's a dead man! Young, dead! Williams…


Note: FUBeAR’s weekly picks are still pending

Nice!

[Mocs123]

VMI -24
Kent State -31 – The Keydets hang tough but run out of gas in the second half.

Charleston Southern -21
The Citadel -28 - The Bellhops get the win at home vs. crosstown rival CSU.

Furman – 31 – The Paladins roll in a win over OVC foe TTU.
Tennessee Tech - 21

Mercer - 7
Alabama -56 – Fubear is celebrating another SoCon win over the SEC, and then he wakes up from his dream, but the Bears still walk out of Tuscaloosa with a big check.

Western Carolina -13
Oklahoma – 49 – The Catamounts score a few points but the Sooners have too much offensive firepower.

Chattanooga -28 – The Mocs work on their QB play and squeak out a win on the road.
North Alabama -24

Samford – 37 - It’s a closer game than most people think, but the Bulldogs come away from west Tennessee with a win.
UT Martin -31

UVA Wise – 6
ETSU – 41 – I’m not sure this needs any description.


Power Rankings
1. ETSU – It pains me to put the Bucs here but if you beat an SEC team, and are 1-0 you go to the top – enough said.
2. Furman – Good win against one of the favorites in the Big South
3. Samford
4. Wofford – Nice win against what should be a decent Elon team.
5. VMI
6. Chattanooga – Poor QB and Special Teams play against a good Austin Peay team.
7. Mercer
8. The Citadel
9. Western Carolina – I feel bad with them at #9 – they put up a good fight against EKU and are obviously improved. My guess is they won’t be #9 next week.

[walliver]

The SoCon is hurt be recent early exits from the playoffs, several of which have been by larger than expected margins. We can try to spin that in many different directions, but fixing this problem requires winning more playoff games.

Even though Nick Sabin is now shaking from fear wondering if he'll need his AFLAC benefits after FUBears whipping on his highly paid team, wins against Alabama and Oklahoma aren't happening.

If teams in the conference play competitive football for all 11 weeks we should get 2 or 3 in. But, multiple bids require a few teams to separate themselves from the rest of the conference. That hasn't happened much.

In the past, we have had 3-4 teams that were distinctly better than the rest. The App State team that beat Michigan lost 2 conference games and required an at-large bid to the playoffs which they eventually won. Wofford won the auto bid. Four teams finished 4-3 (including a team that beat App State) and stayed home. Right now, I see a conference where we beat each other up every week. It makes for good football, but bad playoff chances.

[FUBeAR]

VMI -24
Kent State -31

Charleston Southern -21
The Citadel -28

Furman – 31
Tennessee Tech - 21

Mercer - 7
Alabama -56

Western Carolina -13
Oklahoma – 49

Chattanooga -28
North Alabama -24

Samford – 37
UT Martin -31

UVA Wise – 6
ETSU – 41

Power Rankings
1. ETSU – It pains me to put the Bucs here but if you beat an SEC team, and are 1-0 you go to the top – enough said.
2. Furman – Good win against one of the favorites in the Big South
3. Samford
4. Wofford – Nice win against what should be a decent Elon team.
5. VMI
6. Chattanooga – Poor QB and Special Teams play against a good Austin Peay team.
7. Mercer
8. The Citadel
9. Western Carolina – I feel bad with them at #9 – they put up a good fight against EKU and are obviously improved. My guess is they won’t be #9 next week.Based on your Winners/Scores projections, who do you see moving below WCU?

[Mocs123]

Based on your Winners/Scores projections, who do you see moving below WCU?

Fair enough. That's what I get for doing my power rankings first. Unless The Citadel or Chattanooga loses this week, they will likely be #9 next week, but they seem to be on a trajectory where they won't be there for long.

I know how much difference a head coach can make (see Chattanooga in 2008 vs. 2009) and I think Bell is a good one. Great hire by WCU - honestly one I never thought I would see them make.

[Reign of Terrier]

If teams in the conference play competitive football for all 11 weeks we should get 2 or 3 in. But, multiple bids require a few teams to separate themselves from the rest of the conference. That hasn't happened much.

In the past, we have had 3-4 teams that were distinctly better than the rest. The App State team that beat Michigan lost 2 conference games and required an at-large bid to the playoffs which they eventually won. Wofford won the auto bid. Four teams finished 4-3 (including a team that beat App State) and stayed home. Right now, I see a conference where we beat each other up every week. It makes for good football, but bad playoff chances.

Two big things make today different:
1) The FCS/1-AA used to use the "7 D1 win" rule as basically an iron clad law. If you didn't have 7 D1 wins before 2013 or so, you were out. And many of those teams (including 2007, the year you cite) the three teams that went 7-4 did not have 7 D1 wins. Since the field has expanded, that rule has loosened as multiple 6 D1 teams have gotten into the playoffs. This means that a team that has 7 D1 wins and 8+ total wins will look pretty good.
2) The playoff field has expanded to 24 teams, not just 16, so that provides for more opportunities to get in.

What's more, I think there are two problems with your analysis
1) The socon hasn't looked awful out of conference in the playoffs. Furman 2019 is the one exception. But for the most part, Wofford has played pretty much everyone but NDSU 2017 (who didn't?) very close. And other teams like VMI and ETSU have looked good in the playoffs as well.
2) You can look to 2016, the last time the socon got 4 teams in and see that long, sustained prior playoff runs make little difference relative to regular season performance. In 2016, Samford and Wofford got in the playoffs (I'd argue Samford snuck in), on top of the Chattanooga and the Citadel, who made the playoffs the year before. Neither Chattanooga nor the Citadel made it past the second round in 2015. And if you look at the conference standings in 2016, the Citadel was alone at the top at 8-0, while everyone else was at roughly 5-3 or 6-2.

[Catamount87]

Two big things make today different:
1) The FCS/1-AA used to use the "7 D1 win" rule as basically an iron clad law. If you didn't have 7 D1 wins before 2013 or so, you were out. And many of those teams (including 2007, the year you cite) the three teams that went 7-4 did not have 7 D1 wins. Since the field has expanded, that rule has loosened as multiple 6 D1 teams have gotten into the playoffs. This means that a team that has 7 D1 wins and 8+ total wins will look pretty good.
2) The playoff field has expanded to 24 teams, not just 16, so that provides for more opportunities to get in.

What's more, I think there are two problems with your analysis
1) The socon hasn't looked awful out of conference in the playoffs. Furman 2019 is the one exception. But for the most part, Wofford has played pretty much everyone but NDSU 2017 (who didn't?) very close. And other teams like VMI and ETSU have looked good in the playoffs as well.
2) You can look to 2016, the last time the socon got 4 teams in and see that long, sustained prior playoff runs make little difference relative to regular season performance. In 2016, Samford and Wofford got in the playoffs (I'd argue Samford snuck in), on top of the Chattanooga and the Citadel, who made the playoffs the year before. Neither Chattanooga nor the Citadel made it past the second round in 2015. And if you look at the conference standings in 2016, the Citadel was alone at the top at 8-0, while everyone else was at roughly 5-3 or 6-2.

Actually, the rule doesn't state 7 D1 wins it states that a team with fewer than six D1 wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected.

[Reign of Terrier]

Actually, the rule doesn't state 7 D1 wins it states that a team with fewer than six D1 wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected.

Yes, but before 2010 and 2013, when 20+ teams weren't selected to the field, and there was only 16, not having 7 D1 wins almost always eliminated you. I think there were no more than 2 selected in the 20something years of that format. There were about 9 Socon teams didn't make the playoffs in spite of winning 7 D1 games or more between 1993 and 2009. In a 22-24 team format, I think there are 5 teams (4 Wofford - 2000, 2002 especially, but also 2004, and 2006 and 1 App - 1996) who probably make it in a 24 team field.

The scarcity of bids is what cost 7 wins being an auto-qualifier for the socon before the 22 and 24 teams playoffs. And the 2012 Citadel team probably gets in with the same resume in 2013 (when the field expanded to 24).

Really, historically, the teams that didn't get in *after* the expansion in spite of having 7+ D1 wins, are the ones that played 12 game seasons and or the Socon had a bad OOC year (2017 Western, 2013 Chattanooga). Neither of those are applicable this year.

[FUBeAR]

So…I guess since our weekly thread has devolved into Math 302, Stats 201, and Marketing for Non-Business Majors, it’s time for FUBeAR to make some picks and rank ‘em up.

Last week, I felt the Prescience virus runnin’ all through my systems and the results showed it. Unfortunately I was mandated to get vaxxed against the Piedmont/Eastern variant of that virus this week, so I just don’t expect a repeat performance, but here we go…



Away
Home
Time
Prediculation


VMI
Kent State
11:30 A
The Keydets looked a bit rusty & a little sloppy last week. I think their losses on D might be a bit more impactful than expected. But Keydets rise early & Golden Flashes are seen in the night sky. This one kicks off before noon. Also…Military vs. FlowerChildren…we’ve known the spread on that game for over 50 years. Too soon? Roos add another chapter to their Cinderella Story & put an FBS scalp in their pouches.

VMI 31 - Kent State 27


Charleston Southern
The Citadel
2:00 P
Bellhops go from getting Chadwelled (again) to facing the now Chadless. I couldn’t find much of anything to like about the SamsoniteBoyz performance last week, but they are back in the friendly not-really-confines of their half-a-stadium this outing & need to re-grip the handles, have some pride, and overcome their talent/Coaching deficits to get a win for the SoCon. They squeak one out…this week.

CIT 24 - CSU 23


Furman
Tennessee Tech
2:30 P
Paladins looked like they are supposed to look (for the most part) last week. Samford Eagle-Plucking template will help Furman & AirSisson overcome some notoriously bad home-cookin’ (it’s called COOKeville for a reason, y’know) and bring home a win and a Top 25 ranking this week…DAMMIT!

Furman 31 - TTU 7


Mercer
Alabama
4:00 P
They say you can throw the records out the window when the Bears come a-growlin’ and a-maulin’ into Tuscaloosa. So, let’s do that & CELEBRATE!!!

Mercer 21 - Alabama 20


Chattanooga
North Alabama
7:00 P
Some might think ol’ FUBeAR has been a little hard on the Mocks recently. FUBeAR thinks no one else has been hard enough. “We need to prepare for the Fall,” they said. “We don’t want our Players to get hurt in meaningless games,” they said. “We’re going to compete for real titles this Fall,” they said. “Of course we coulda won the SoCon in the Spring and will win it in the Fall, but we’re looking past that to prepare for a long Playoff run and the National Championship,” they said. Well, horse-hockey. They looked, last week, exactly like the sloppy, mistake-a-minute Team I saw last Spring in their debut after their SoCon-screwing self-selected hiatus. The only reason they hung around with a historically awful OVC program is that Team had penalties just about every play and, like FU did in their game last Spring, seemed to be saying to the Mocks, “I saw that boneheaded ish y’all just did. Hold my beer.” Exiling themselves to Florence, AL is an excellent opportunity for them to find some kind of redemption from where ChattaQuitta has descended to since last March.

UTC 26 - UNA 20


Samford
UT Martín
7:00 P
UTM has a nice O. That would usually be enough to take down Samford on the road, but Samford’s D is playing better. Although decent on D up front, UTM’s secondary belongs in a lower classification of TN HS Football. Samford’s QB, with his very particular set of skills, should have a field day.

Samford 56 - UTM 28


Western Carolina
Oklahoma
7:00 P
My prayers for WCU this week are, SERIOUSLY, no tragedies…and I’m not talking about their game with the Sooners. The Catamounts need a peaceful week. They should be able to score some on a Big HowManyTeamsIsItNow Team, but they will still get a bit whomped. A couple of comments about their EKU game - much better in all phases. Still some room to go with Team D and, honestly, I was a bit surprised about Wells decision-making & accuracy. I think he’ll need to adjust a bit to playing against D1 talent in SoCon Secondaries - seems to have the tools to make that adjustment.

Oklahoma (stops the SoCon Sweep) 70 - 31


UVA Wise
ETSU
7:30 P
Bucs looked solid against Vandy. Same as they looked last Spring when Furman & Mercer beat them. Even with a letdown, they still crumble Wise.

ETSU 49 - Wise 6


Opt-out U
Wofford

We’re SURE they don’t have a game scheduled, right? I heard they were considering ‘having to’ opt out of the rest of the season because their 3rd Team Long Snapper had a tight groin. Someone mentioned an abundance of caution and someone else said something about putting the health & well-being of student-athletes as their primary concern. Idle, right? Open Date, right? Bye week, right?



Power Rankings (WEEK2)
1a) Furman
1b) Mercer
3) Samford
4) ETSU
5) VMI
6) WCU
7) Woffy
8) CIT
9) Chatt

note - swapped Woffy & CIT from my earlier-in-the-week rankings after video review. Woffy was not horrible; bellhops were.

[caribbeanhen]

FUBeAR,

the bias meter is pegged when I read you rankings.... fun to read but biased indeed

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR,

the bias meter is pegged when I read you rankings.... fun to read but biased indeedYou seem biased against my biases. Why are you so biased, hen?

[caribbeanhen]

You seem biased against my biases. Why are you so biased, hen?

My bias is rooted in bias and there are very fertile grounds for bias amongst the fans out on the amber waves of grain

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm biased in favor of positions that are correct and biased against positions that are incorrect

[FUBeAR]

I'm biased in favor of positions that are correct and biased against positions that are incorrectWell, that is, itself, an incorrect position. So, I guess you’re just a chronic masterbiaser, aren’t you?

[kdinva]

The Citadel 31; Chuck South 24
ETSU 51; UVa-Wise 14
Samford 41; UT-Martin 21
Furman 35; Tenn. Tech. 20
UTC 31; UNA 17
Kent St. 35; VMI 33
Alabama 55; Mercer 14
Oklahoma 54; WCU 13

[Catamount87]

Yes, but before 2010 and 2013, when 20+ teams weren't selected to the field, and there was only 16, not having 7 D1 wins almost always eliminated you. I think there were no more than 2 selected in the 20something years of that format. There were about 9 Socon teams didn't make the playoffs in spite of winning 7 D1 games or more between 1993 and 2009. In a 22-24 team format, I think there are 5 teams (4 Wofford - 2000, 2002 especially, but also 2004, and 2006 and 1 App - 1996) who probably make it in a 24 team field.

The scarcity of bids is what cost 7 wins being an auto-qualifier for the socon before the 22 and 24 teams playoffs. And the 2012 Citadel team probably gets in with the same resume in 2013 (when the field expanded to 24).

Really, historically, the teams that didn't get in *after* the expansion in spite of having 7+ D1 wins, are the ones that played 12 game seasons and or the Socon had a bad OOC year (2017 Western, 2013 Chattanooga). Neither of those are applicable this year.

See also WCU 2014. As for 2017, the egg we laid against Mercer (35-33 loss) in the second to last game of the season sealed our fate that year. We were ranked #25 at that time and the team played as if the win and playoff bid was a given. All in all that loss fell squarely on the coach's shoulders.

Bottom line here, as mentioned before, a) the SoCon needs better performance in OOC games and b) SoCon playoff teams need to win playoff games, ie go deep not one and done.

[ElCid]

After seeing the Clemson-GA game, I am sure OK and Bama are going to be looking to their Defensive ability. I already picked Mercer and WCU to score at least once, probably in the second half obviously. But I think they both could be shut out if these playoff possible teams become obsessed with defense. I certainly hope the SOCON scores some, but OK didn't exactly shine last week on D. Bama did ok.

[SU DOG]

College Sports Journal - Week 2 SoCon Previews/Picks

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/southern-conference-week-2-preview/

[Reign of Terrier]

Well, that is, itself, an incorrect position. So, I guess you’re just a chronic masterbiaser, aren’t you?

Yes, and having others take the bait. I'm a master at that.

[FUBeAR]

College Sports Journal - Week 2 SoCon Previews/Picks

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/southern-conference-week-2-preview/FUBeAR Listened to this writer in an FCS podcast earlier this week. JMU guy, but seems to be a SoCon ally. Other than his bad-wrong Mercer pick here, this is a very nice write-up. Knows the SoCon Teams & seems to have done his homework / watched a bunch of vid. Thanks for posting, SU DOG

[Reign of Terrier]

See also WCU 2014. As for 2017, the egg we laid against Mercer (35-33 loss) in the second to last game of the season sealed our fate that year. We were ranked #25 at that time and the team played as if the win and playoff bid was a given. All in all that loss fell squarely on the coach's shoulders.

Bottom line here, as mentioned before, a) the SoCon needs better performance in OOC games and b) SoCon playoff teams need to win playoff games, ie go deep not one and done.

2014 Western Carolina had no shot at the playoffs. They played and beat 2 D2 teams. Their 7-5 record was pretty deceiving.

If you look at Socon scheduling, one or two teams per year schedule a sub-FCS team, which is fine and necessary at times. But in 2014, the year after App and GSU left for good, the second and third place teams (WCU, Samford) basically decided they wanted to scrimmage for money (WCU played 2 sub-FCS teams, Samford played two FBS teams) instead of making the playoffs (of course, Wofford also played two sub-FCS teams that year, so I think the weird scheduling had more to do with Elon/App/GSU leaving at the last second more than anything).

The league was able to bounce back in 2016 with better play and a beefier schedule, and we've been a 2+ bid league every year since (had some bad luck in 2018 with Furman), but the really the difference between 2 and 3 or even 4 teams in has been the OOC record. That doesn't look like it's going to be a problem this year, as we could have our best FCS OOC win percentage since 2016, with multiple teams cleaning house.

[FUBeAR]

VMI has learned to win /expect to win SoCon / FCS games, but they do not yet expect to win against an FBS Team. Offense is tentative & tight. Defense is deer in headlights. Once this game is out of hand, they will play much better.

And, as mentioned in FUBeAR’s Pick’em, their losses of 3 or 4 starters (I think) from their Spring D are bigger than they appeared to be. Not, in any way, looking like repeat SoCon Champs right now.

[ElCid]

VMI has learned to win /expect to win SoCon / FCS games, but they do not yet expect to win against an FBS Team. Offense is tentative & tight. Defense is deer in headlights. Once this game is out of hand, they will play much better.

And, as mentioned in FUBeAR’s Pick’em, their losses of 3 or 4 starters (I think) from their Spring D are bigger than they appeared to be. Not, in any way, looking like repeat SoCon Champs right now.

Correct, but add, and I said it a few times this week, the FBS brethren were on high alert after last weeks bloodbath and they were going to give it all they got. A little extra oomph is evident in all the current games, and last night's game. I am sure none of these FBS coaches wanted to fall prey this week and they got their teams fired up maybe a bit more than normal and didn't cut any corners in prep.

[FUBeAR]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4jGSvxCRp4

wondering if this scene just popped into any CIT fans’ heads.

C’mon bellhops - the SoCon needs y’all to carry some baggage for the rest of the SoCon Teams. You would think that would be something they would be adept at doing.

[ElCid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4jGSvxCRp4

wondering if this scene just popped into any CIT fans’ heads.

C’mon bellhops - the SoCon needs y’all to carry some baggage for the rest of the SoCon Teams. You would think that would be something they would be adept at doing.


Yeah, we are pitiful so far. Nothing seems to be working.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah, we are pitiful so far. Nothing seems to be working.
Perhaps “SUCK” gives them way too much credit. YUCK!

[ElCid]

Wow, we are going to have a long season. Our O is inept, no blocking, little speed, no passing game. Our D is poor, no tackling, slow, no good decision making. The only thing getting more upset right now is the idiot announcer for our game. He is a moron.

[The Cats]

CSU is rolling over the Citadel in the first quarter.... going in for their third score.

CSU scores again, it's 21-0 in the first quarter. Seems that all the Bulldogs can do against CSU is either turn the ball over, or go 3 and out......


Talk about a depressing SoCon Game of the Week, and El Cid has three of them this year. Way to put your best foot forward SoCon.

[FUBeAR]

Wow, we are going to have a long season. Our O is inept, no blocking, little speed, no passing game. Our D is poor, no tackling, slow, no good decision making. The only thing getting more upset right now is the idiot announcer for our game. He is a moron.
Assume you mean the Analyst and not Yanity. Singleton was a Woffy OLman - knows the game & actually does good analysis - just way too much of it using way too many words too often.

[ElCid]

Assume you mean the Analyst and not Yanity. Singleton was a Woffy OLman - knows the game & actually does good analysis - just way too much of it using way too many words too often.


He talks to hear himself talk. He is annoying and Mr. Obvious. He needs to find another day job. I've gone mute.

[The Cats]

VMI beat 60-10. I don't think anyone expected that?

[The Cats]

The Bulldogs owned the 2d quarter, scoring twice, it's now 24-14.

[Reign of Terrier]

What an awful week in the socon. I thought we could compete for 4 playoff bids, but now we're now no more than 3.

VMI made Kent State look like Bama. Citadel isn't good. Samford is trying to rally late against UTM - awful.

Honestly, I think this year is going to be a three team race between Wofford, Furman, and ETSU. Samford and Chattanooga will make noise and compete for a spot, but I don't want to hear about VMI against this year. My intuition about the keydets going into this season was that of skepticism, and I feel vindicated by that.

[Mocs123]

Chattanooga holds tUNA to 90 yards of offense and shuts them out. We ran the ball well and started a new QB (Copeland) but still couldn't pass the football effectively. We need to get that figured out before SoCon play starts.

[FUBeAR]

…still couldn't pass the football effectively. We need to get that figured out before SoCon play starts.Yep…it sure is a Riddle, ain’t it.

[Mocs123]

Samford falls to UT-Martin

[Reign of Terrier]

the most frustrating thing about being a wofford fan is losing to samford for all these years when they are objectively not a special program. Maybe that comes off as me being butt hurt by all the loses, but for goodness sake Samford just chokes on random teams at random times. It's consistent and predictable and it makes the conference look bad, but no one would care if Wofford would just beat them consistently.

[Mocs123]

I think the inconsistency of Samford is due to the Hatch-Attach offense (and it's impact on their defense). When it clicks they can beat anyone, when it's off or teams defend it well, they have a bunch of 3 and outs and it can get ugly. My take is as long as Hatcher is there they will be a good team that can both beat and lose to anyone depending on the day.