SoCon Pick'em & Power Ranking Week 1 2021

[FUBeAR]

Welp…we’re inside 10 days before our Young Men will be in our stadiums buttin’ heads like billy goats with their opponents. Well, I guess they don’t butt heads so much anymore, but y’all know what I mean…

FUBeAR saw this picture today, was inspired to begin this thread, and thought it appropriate to include to honor our reigning SoCon Football Champions - the Rootin’ Tootin’ Roos of the Virginia Military Institute.

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/richmond.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/4d/b4ded840-bed1-504e-99e6-3f15f0fcfdf5/6124e9937c39d.image.jpg


Here is the Week1 Schedule…no Intra-Conference games in Week 1…that’s good!!

Thursday, September 2, 2021


Away
Home
Time
Location
Links


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/11/30/Coastal_Carolina_Chanticleers_logo_svg.png?width=3 0Coastal Carolina (https://goccusports.com/index.aspx)
7:00 P.M.
Conway, S.C.



https://soconsports.com/images/logos/point_logo.png?width=30Point (http://www.pointskyhawks.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
7:00 P.M.
Macon, Ga.
Stats (http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=353024)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Tennessee-Tech.png?width=30Tennessee Tech (http://www.ttusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
7:00 P.M.
Birmingham, Ala.



https://soconsports.com/images/logos/ap_monicle_gentleman.png?width=30Austin Peay (http://letsgopeay.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
7:30 P.M.
Chattanooga, Tenn.




Saturday, September 4, 2021


Away
Home
Time
Location
Links


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/e20.png?width=30Davidson (http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30 P.M.
Lexington, Va.
Stats (http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=353734)


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/North-Carolina-AT.png?width=30North Carolina A&T (http://www.ncataggies.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
2:00 P.M.
Greenville, S.C.
TV: Nexstar Stats (http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=352807)


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/elon_logo.png?width=30Elon (http://www.elonphoenix.com/)
2:00 P.M.
Elon, N.C.



https://soconsports.com/images/logos/E%20Logo%20for%20Sidearm.png?width=30Eastern Kentucky (http://www.ekusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
6:00 P.M.
Cullowhee, N.C.
TV: Nexstar


https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Vanderbilt_Commodores.png?width=30Vanderbilt (http://www.vucommodores.com/)
8:00 P.M.
Nashville, Tenn.



Who ya got?

Don’t forget to include your Power Rankings…


FUBeAR will be back later with his Picks/Rankings…got some more cogitatin’ to do 1st.

[Catamount87]

2021 season start is a crapshoot at best. So, I'll fire away, winners in bold.



The Citadel at Coastal Carolina - CCU thinks they'll coast to a victory but it'll be a dog fight for a bit.
Point at Mercer - Mercer makes an exclamation point.
Tennessee Tech at Samford - The dawgs flood the air and the end zone.
Austin Peay at Chattanooga - The governor pees the bed like a passed out drunk.
Davidson at VMI - The Roos enjoys a scrimmage to open the season.
North Carolina A&T at Furman - The Aggies plow over the Paladins in front of maybe 1,000 fans.
Wofford at Elon - The loser officially has no wheels on their bus and has to walk home. Elon is glad to play home because their walk won't be far.
Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina - There won't be a repeat of 2020. Cats scratch out the win in the end.
ETSU at Vanderbilt - The commodore commands a big win.

[FUBeAR]

North Carolina A&T at Furman - The Aggies…Paladins in front of maybe 1,000 fans.
Very nice work overall…but (barring gubmint mandate limiting attendance), I’ll gladly take the OVER on this (goofy) projection. This should be a great contest well-attended by both Furman & Aggie Fans.

[The Cats]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina
Point at Mercer
Tennessee Tech at Samford
Austin Peay at Chattanooga
Davidson at VMI
NC A&T at Furman
Wofford at Elon
Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina
ETSU at Vanderbilt


Preseason Rankings (https://catamountsportsblog.blogspot.com/2021/08/2021-preseason-socon-football-power.html)

[Libertine]

Coastal
Mercer
Samford
AP
VMI
A&T
Elon
EKU
ETSU (yeah, ETSU)

[Reign of Terrier]

Give me
Coastal Carolina
Mercer
Samford
Chattanooga
VMI
NC A&T
Wofford
Eastern Kentucky
Vanderbilt

If the Socon can come out strong this weekend and run the table, it'll look really good for our OOC. Hardest FCS games are probably:

I'm very confident in my prediction for the Citadel, Mercer, ETSU games, simply because the teams playing aren't on the same level

I'm not very confident in my prediction of these games at all:
Samford vs Tennessee Tech: just because TTU looked good in the spring, and they're hard to predict; Samford always looks bad in August/September - unless they play Wofford - and great in October
NC A&T vs Furman: because NC A&T is good and Furman still hasn't learned how to put it together and win big games consistently...though this could be the year
Austin Peay vs Chattanooga: I think Chattanooga is back, as they're my preseason favorite to win it all, but Austin Peay is a couple years removed from a great quarterfinalist team. I wouldn't put anything past them.

I'm confident in my prediction for these games, but wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong:
Wofford vs Elon: I don't know how good Wofford is this year. I think they'll be good, but if we're bad we'll lose to Elon. No idea how good Elon is either. But I think we have more confidence as a program, and this Elon team isn't as good as when Cignetti was coach. They did show flashes of greatness in the Spring though. I think this is a game Wofford should win. But I thought that about a lot of games in the Spring, as well as against, say SC State a couple years back.

VMI vs Davidson: You can go ahead and brand me as a VMI skeptic. They won games last year, in many ways, by outscoring their opponents, and they lose quite a bit of playmakers on defense going into this year. Yes, Davidson is in the Pioneer, but they're a damn good team for that level, and can match a mid-tier FCS team blow-for-blow. They did it against Elon in the spring, and I'm not sure if VMI has the defense to stop them as much as they'd like. Again, I think VMI wins this game, but it's going to be within a score or two. But I wouldn't be all that surprised by an upset.

Eastern Kentucky and Western Carolina: I think EKU wins this game. They beat the Catamounts like a drum in the fall of 2020. Granted, there was all of these weirdness and COVID stuff (that won't be nearly as prominent now), and I think Western will improve with their new coach. It's just really hard to win in Cullowhee and I don't expect to see the effects overnight. EKU was 3-6 last fall but played 3 FBS games, one of which was very competitive. WCU was not good. I think the baseline improvement you can expect from EKU is higher.

[bonarae]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina
Point at Mercer
Tennessee Tech at Samford
Austin Peay at Chattanooga
Davidson at VMI
NC A&T at Furman
Wofford at Elon
Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina
ETSU at Vanderbilt

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Coastal
Mercer
Samford
AP
VMI
A&T
Elon
EKU
ETSU (yeah, ETSU)

I like your optimism. Unfortunately, I just don't see it.

[Milktruck74]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina - The dogs keep it interesting for a while, but the Beach Chickens prevail
Point at Mercer - Mini Bears take beat the HS team
Tennessee Tech at Samford - TTU score more than they usually do, but SAMMY scores more.
Austin Peay at Chattanooga - MOCS MOCS MOCS
Davidson at VMI - Keydets do what they can to keep from completely humiliating Davy, but they are just not good enough at holding back
North Carolina A&T at Furman - FURPLE does what they can to restore some SoCon pride....FuBear gets to call plays for the first two series of each half for his $1MM anony donation, and Furple still gets it done!!!!
Wofford at Elon - Head says the Fighting Christians, but we need some more SoCon OOC cred....so Woffy
Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina - Gonna find out what KB can do with a his crew and the Whee Nation plays inspired and John Peacock's boys show their plume...Cants
ETSU at Vanderbilt - Bucs bring home a check, but the Victory stays with the Dores

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

To kick off the season, I am placing the teams in groups of 3, from most likely to least likely to make the playoffs.

MOST LIKELY
VMI - they won the title in the spring, they end up here
ETSU - the first team out of the playoffs also end up here
Mercer - had a great season in the spring

HAVE A CHANCE WITH A LITTLE LUCK
Furman - can the Paladins shake off the funk that bemired them
The Citadel - Bulldogs have the potential to be deadly
Samford - Bammerdogs could make some noise

NOT LIKELY
Western Carolina - won the coaching search lottery with Kerwin Bell
Chattanooga - not buying the hype surrounding them
Wofford - could Conklin be on his last legs here?

Week 1 Games
The Citadel @ Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers pick up right where they left off
Point @ Mercer (Beatdown of the Week) - Bears make this game pointless
Tennessee Tech @ Samford - Bammerdogs clip the Eagles' wings
Austin Peay @ Chattanooga - Governors rule the day
Davidson @ VMI - Keydets pick up right where they left off
North Carolina A&T @ Furman (Game of the Week) - Paladins win in a close one
Wofford @ Elon - Phoenix own the day
Eastern Kenturkey @ Western Carolina - Catamounts stuff the Kenturkey
ETSU @ Vanderbilt - really want to pick ETSU but Vandyland is more talented

[SU DOG]

Good luck to all our SoCon Teams. The conference needs all the wins it can get. Power ranking is really not possible for me at this time, but I will have to go along with UTC as the favorite.

The Citadel @ Coastal - Beach Hens will be too much for Cit.

Point @ Mercer - Laugher as Bears only issue is by how much.

Tenn. Tech @ SAMFORD - Bulldogs by a bunch. Samford's defense will be the surprise of the SoCon. Hatcher already with some heat about blowing leads. The prolific passing game will now be accompanied with good defense and running game. Watch out!!!

APSU @ UTC - Mocs win, but not a blowout.

Davidson @ VMI - Roos jump all over Cats.

NCAT&T @ Furman - Tough call, but I kinda think Furman will lose this one.

Wofford @ Elon - Terriers get the "W".

EKU @ Western - Let's go Cats, but mind instead of heart says The Colonels will be too much.

ETSU @ Vandy - Commodores command Pirates in this money game.

[FUBeAR]

Samford's having a defense would be the surprise of the SoCon.

FIFY

[SU DOG]

Another SoCon Preview:

https://theanalyst.com/na/2021/08/fcs-college-football-2021-southern-conference-preview/

[ElCid]

The Citadel at #19 Coastal Carolina – I find it a little unbelievable that CCU is ranked #19 FBS in the AP; I suspect that they are good, but that ranking was achieved due to a bit of opportunity created by the virus last year; they got a pretty good QB up there, but our D should be better this year with a couple folks back that were absent; we will see how our secondary shakes out; and the key to our winning has always been about ball control so it will hinge on whether we can sustain drives with a healthy, now veteran offense; if we control the tempo we can make a game of it; if not, well, it could obviously get away for us; all that said, I think it could be close, but the beach chickens will pull away – 31-20


Point at Mercer - Mercer will obviously win, big – 55-7


Tennessee Tech at #28 Samford – Last time they met, the Bulldogs crapped the bed late; I don’t see that happening again; I suspect they will pull away early – 38-14


#23 Austin Peay at #18 Chattanooga – This one is stumping me; lots of folks have a buzz for the Mocs, but I’ll believe it when I see it; still, I think they can pull it out at home – 31-28


#36 Davidson at #17 VMI – Will the Keydets pick up where they left off? Maybe. But they should handle Davidson – 34-18


#27 North Carolina A&T at Furman – Furman was in disarray late last spring; but A&T wasn’t even around; I think that will help the Paladins a little; Furman pulls it out – 24-17


Wofford at Elon – I am not so sure Wofford is as bad as some people think; Elon is a bigger question mark; but they both looked horrible last Spring; but I think Wofford will recover first – 34-31


Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina – While I think WCU will soon be on an upward trajectory, it won’t be yet – 35-24


#31 ETSU at Vanderbilt – Vandy was winless last fall; they need one big time – 35-10




POWER RANKING – A little pointless and an exercise in futility in no particular order


1. - Samford
1. - VMI
1. - Chattanooga
1. - The Citadel
1. - Wofford
1. - Mercer
1. - ETSU
1. - Furman
2. - WCU

Sorry WCU.

[walliver]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina - Coastal is over-rated based on last season. They don't see much triple option in the Sun Belch, but Chadwell knows how to coach against it. As nice as it would be for the Citadel to bring a broom on the field after the game, I don't see it happening. Gamecock-wannabes 35 - Bellhops 17

Point at Mercer n- A lot of Cub benchwarmers will get some action, but its not a game really worth predicting, but Mercer wins easily.

Tennessee Tech at Samford - The Bullpups score quickly and often, the Tennesseans not so much. Samford 42-20

Austin Peay at Chatty - I don't know much about the P-Boys but the TrainBirds should win this. Chattanooga 24-14

Davidson at VMI - The we-couldn't-hang-in-the-SoCon kitties are much better than they were 4 years ago but will struggle against a well-coached group of kangaroos. VMI wins 38-10

NC A&T at Furman - The Horsie People had an unexpectedly bad Spring. I'm sure they will get back on course, but I don't know if that will happen in week 1. The visitors pull out a 28-24 A&T win

Wofford at Elon - The Terriers didn't seem to buy in to Conklin's spring plans. There are now some transfers (what blasphemy) and a new OC (actually co-OC's) so anything could happen this fall. The T-Dog start off with a 31-17 win.

EKU at WCU - The new Cant coach came in after spring ball finished, so he really hasn't had much time to install is system. WCU will get better as the season progresses, but EKU starts off with a 38-24 win.

ETSU at Vanderbilt - The Tennessee sailers vs the Tennessee sailers. Vandy barely beat CSU a few years back and last years team was dreadful. The Doors brought out a female kicker to takes people's minds off the dreadful team, but couldn't get close enough to the goal line for a PAT or FG in the first game she played. The Nashville crowd have a new coach so they can't be any worse. ETSU keeps it close, but the SEC refs will make sure the Commodores (who were never the same after Lionel left) win 31-28.


As for Power Ratings, just about anything could happen this fall

[Mocs123]

Coastal Carolina over The Citadel - Closer game than most think.
Mercer over Point - Beatdown of the week.
Samford over TTU - Samford wins in a shootout.
Chattanooga over Austin Peay. Game of the Week - Chatty wins at home.

VMI over Davidson - The Keydets keep up their winning ways.
Furman over NC A&T - Runner up to the game of the week - I think Furple pulls out a good win for the SoCon.
Wofford over Elon - I could see this going either way, but I think the Terriers win their opener.
Eastern Kentucky over WCU - I hope I'm wrong here, but I think EKU is too much for Bell's first game.
Vandy over ETSU - I'll be pulling for the Bucs (I think I just threw up in my mouth a little) but the SEC is still the SEC.

Rankings (really a shot in the dark at this point) This was really hard. I think just about every team has reason to think they could contend for the SoCon championship. I see no doormats this year.

1.)Chattanooga - We have a great team on paper - now time to show it on the field.
2.)Furman - Better than their fans think they are.
3.)VMI - A legitimate SoSon Contender.
4.)ETSU - Will we see the 2019 Bucs or the 2020 Bucs?
5.)Mercer - Cronic building a good program in Macon.
6.)Samford - The Birmingham Bulldogs will be dangerous yet inconsistent again.
7.)The Citadel - The beach Bulldogs are probably better than #7 but their recent record has them here.
8.)Wofford - Did Conklin lose this team? We'll know soon enough as they are more talented than #8.
9.)Western Carolina. - Bell builds a winner in the 'wee but not quite there yet.

[caribbeanhen]

Coastal Carolina
Mercer
Samford
Austin Peay
VMI
NC A&T
Wofford
Western Carolina
Vanderbilt

my picks are based on the premise that things are not gonna go according to plan

[ElCid]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina - Coastal is over-rated based on last season. They don't see much triple option in the Sun Belch, but Chadwell knows how to coach against it. As nice as it would be for the Citadel to bring a broom on the field after the game, I don't see it happening. Gamecock-wannabes 35 - Bellhops 17


I'd love to us burn them with a surprise passing attack. Get them off balance, and just keep em guessing. Problem is our presumptive QB needs to have improved his passing game. He looked a bit out of place trying to throw most of last year.

[Mocs123]

I'd love to us burn them with a surprise passing attack. Get them off balance, and just keep em guessing. Problem is our presumptive QB needs to have improved his passing game. He looked a bit out of place trying to throw most of last year.

If it was the kid that played in the spring he was a baller though. You could tell things were a little out of sync but he was an excellent athlete.

[ElCid]

If it was the kid that played in the spring he was a baller though. You could tell things were a little out of sync but he was an excellent athlete.

He is quick on his feet and has an eye for holes, but he is short (hard to see his receivers), and too mechanical throwing. He seemed to not think on feet when deciding where to toss it. Expected when he only has to do it once every 15-20 plays. But hopefully he grew some and his experience continues to grow.

[Reign of Terrier]

Just learned the Elon-Wofford game isn't going to be on ESPN+ and that annoys me

[FUBeAR]

Just learned the Elon-Wofford game isn't going to be on ESPN+ and that annoys me
@E*Loan, right? CAA doesn’t have ESPN+ deal that SoCon has.

But … I don’t see where the Point @ Mercer is going to be on ESPN+ either…so that surprises me. Going anyway, but still.

Aren’t you up north now? You should go. Isn’t E*Loan located in NJ or somewhere similar or is that just where they think they are located?

[Reign of Terrier]

The CAA has a deal with FloSports, so it's $20 for one month. Really dumb.

My guess is that the media rights carry for home games (so, because Mercer is the home team, ESPN+ has the rights to the game, same with Elon and Flo)

I just asked my google machine how far away New Jersey is, and unfortunately it is far closer than Burlington, NC, so it looks like I"m about to get hustled out of $20.

[CockyGeek]

Coastal Carolina
Mercer
Samford
Austin Peay
Davidson
NCA&T
Wofford
EKU
Vanderbilt

[Milktruck74]

Isn’t E*Loan located in NJ or somewhere similar or is that just where they think they are located? My family is about 20 mins for Elon, daughter visited twice, and we met 2 from Mass, 2 from NJ and a few PA kids!

It was her choice #2....but our out of pocket was going to be a $45k/yr. Her school of choice was $6k/yr more, and out of pocket is about $11k/yr....Funny thing is when I grew up (a county line away) you only went to Elon if you couldn't get in anywhere else.

[FUBeAR]

My family is about 20 mins for Elon, daughter visited twice, and we met 2 from Mass, 2 from NJ and a few PA kids!

It was her choice #2....but our out of pocket was going to be a $45k/yr. Her school of choice was $6k/yr more, and out of pocket is about $11k/yr....Funny thing is when I grew up (a county line away) you only went to Elon if you couldn't get in anywhere else.Yeah - FUBeAR grew up 3 counties to the East. E*Loan was a weird little NAIA school, with a great mascot (Fightin’ Christians), that I always mixed up with Guilford College.

[walliver]

The SoCon's ESPN+ games are produced by the individual schools with equipment paid for by the 5 schools that left a few years back (ASU, GSU, Elon, Davidson, of CofC) so there is no good reason that the Mercer game wouldn't be on ESPN+. In fact, the SoCon thinks the game is on ESPN+
http://www.espn.com/college-football/conferences/schedule/_/id/29/southern-conference

I remember Guilford football in the 1970's. They would go years between wins.

[SU DOG]

I think I like Mr. Massey

Massey Ratings - College Football : FCS Ratings (https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings)

[kdinva]

CCU 34; The Citadel 17
Mercer 66, Point 3
Samford 38; Tenn Tech 20
UTC 31- APSU 24
Furman 21; NCAT 19
Wofford 27; Elon 24
EKU 24; WCU 17
Vandy 34; ETSU 24
VMI 35; Davidson 20

[ElCid]

UTC 31- APSU 224


I'm not sure the Moc's D is that bad. I hope so for our game, but...,😄

[kdinva]

I'm not sure the Moc's D is that bad. I hope so for our game, but...,

didn't proof my work xdrunkyx....... fixed now.

[FUBeAR]

I think I like Mr. Massey

Massey Ratings - College Football : FCS Ratings (https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings)
Hmmm….I guess I better go to the Point @ Mercer game Thursday, since it’s the only Win that Mercer will have all year if Mr. Massey has his way.

His prediculation machine knows the Bears have won 5 of their last 7 & beat 3 Nationally ranked Teams in a row this Spring…right? 1-9 & 0-8 in the SoCon? Think Mr. Massey would be willing to put some money up against FUBeAR’s money regarding those predictions? Let him know where to find me if you see him. I need him to make a few mortgage payments for me.

[SU DOG]

Well no, for the sake of accuracy, I think he did pick Mercer over Western.

[Reign of Terrier]

Massey is actually kind of overrated *in my opinion* there's a weird crowding effect where teams basically get rewarded for playing tough teams *regardless of how well they played against those teams*

[Milktruck74]

Yeah - FUBeAR grew up 3 counties to the East. E*Loan was a weird little NAIA school, with a great mascot (Fightin’ Christians), that I always mixed up with Guilford College.

Yep the Fighting Quakers (and on that tour the guide told daughter #2, "we are a Quaker School, but you don't have to be Quakee, they aren't militant about it!" HA)...My Parents live in Sedgefield now, so right next door...IF you are a Durham or Wake County guy, you know all about the NJ contingent....University of NJ at Durham, and the Containment Area for Relocated Yankees. In full disclosure My family moved to Randolph County from NJ, but it was the southern tip of NJ that is actually below the Mason-Dixon line.

[SU DOG]

Nobody really knows how well preseason predictions will turn out in any year. I think with this strange year, however, it is even more precarious. Still, it is fun to speculate, and at this time of year we can all see strong points for our teams. The one biggest thing that I know is that the SoCon needs to make progress on its perception among FCS peers. Winning those OOC games this season is a primal issue IMO.

[FUBeAR]

Well no, for the sake of accuracy, I think he did pick Mercer over Western.
Nope…that’s the 1st of 3 straight 28-27 SoCon losses the Bears will incur…




Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA




Sat 10-0903:30.PM.ET

at
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/8742)

74(0-0)

49 % (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/game.php?gid=933799822)

27
28

[Milktruck74]

Massey is as accurate as anyone at this point in the season. Which pretty much SUCKS!!! The Massey Algorithm is purely numbers driven and does get better as more accurate data is input. I wouldn't look at Massey until we get through September, and then it is just an idea...by late October it gets pretty good.

[SU DOG]

Nope…that’s the 1st of 3 straight 28-27 SoCon losses the Bears will incur…




Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA




Sat 10-0903:30.PM.ET
at
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/8742)
74(0-0)
49 % (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/game.php?gid=933799822)
27
28




Does he contradict himself, or am I missing something. Clicking on the "Matchups" I thought I saw a 31-28 Bears win(?)

[SU DOG]

Massey is as accurate as anyone at this point in the season. Which pretty much SUCKS!!! The Massey Algorithm is purely numbers driven and does get better as more accurate data is input. I wouldn't look at Massey until we get through September, and then it is just an idea...by late October it gets pretty good.

All for fun now. Besides, who could take seriously any projection that has Samford beating UTC? LOL!

[ElCid]

Massey is actually kind of overrated *in my opinion* there's a weird crowding effect where teams basically get rewarded for playing tough teams *regardless of how well they played against those teams*

This is very true. Just like the insular nature of the Ivy boosts them since they are never tied to many other teams as the season progresses. But Massey is actually good at predicting winners. Not huge but better than Sagarin by a couple %. I did a comparison for like three years running and it always beat Sagarin by 2-3%.

As far as how its accuracy is as the season progresses, it actually starts high, dips, and then comes back strong. Again, picking winners only, not actual spread. Although Massey nails them sometimes. More than I would have thought. But I am fairly sure that the high percentage correct at the beginning of the season can be explained by the nature of games early on, FBS, cupcake, div II, etc games. Easy to pick winners in most of those cases. Once the FCS conf games start, it dips and then gets better again. Sagarin also suffers a bit from not accounting for lower div games. It only includes Div I games in its ratings. So a team that plays one doesn't get penalized like it does in its Massey rating. Sagarin states "In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY games between the 256 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE STRENGTH computations." It's actually 258 now.

Also, Massey states that his "Preseason ratings are typically derived as a weighted average of previous years' final ratings. As the current season progresses, their effect gets damped out completely. The only purpose preseason ratings serve is to provide a reasonable starting point for the computer." So it obviously will be somewhat off at the beginning of the season since coaches, players, injuries, etc may have all changed. Not sure how long these preseason starting positions affect it. But early on a team can be boosted by outstanding previous seasons. Sagarin doesn't state how he does it, but it must be similar because teams jump around without much reason from the previous year's "final" to the "preseason" the next year.

There are 258 Div I teams now. Here is how each of these two rating systems differ for their preseason ratings order. But simply going by the number order isn't very accurate. It's just a general position. You have to look at the actual rating number to see actual gaps. The one that gets me is how the Mocs are 42 spots! different between the two.



Massey order out of 258
team
Massey Rating

Sagarin order out of 258
team
Sagarin Rating


170
SAM
5.66

141
UTC
51.29


182
VMI
5.55

150
SAM
48.91


183
UTC
5.54

162
FUR
47.02


184
WOF
5.52

167
VMI
45.48


187
FUR
5.45

171
ETSU
44.28


191
CIT
5.4

174
WOF
43.73


195
ETSU
5.34

184
MER
42.07


197
MER
5.28

188
CIT
40.92


204
WCU
5.11

223
WCU
33.98




And I think it safe to say that our rump season last fall and spring have temporarily jacked the entire system up, at least for the next few weeks.

[FUBeAR]

Does he contradict himself, or am I missing something. Clicking on the "Matchups" I thought I saw a 31-28 Bears win(?)
My goodness…I thought Furman was the Team that is going to sell Wicked Weed in their stadium this year. Seems like you boys from Samford mighta been partaking a bit ahead of kickoff…

Select a match-up for CF 2021 (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/ratings)



Mercer


at


W Carolina





Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/358435/4649)
Macon, GA, USA
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/358435/8742)
Cullowhee, NC, USA


Actual Score
0
0


Most Likely
27
28


Median
27
28


Mean
28.58
28.91


Win Probability
49%
51%

[walliver]

Nope…that’s the 1st of 3 straight 28-27 SoCon losses the Bears will incur…




Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA




Sat 10-0903:30.PM.ET
at
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/8742)
74(0-0)
49 % (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/game.php?gid=933799822)
27
28




It wasn't that long ago when UTC went 5-3 in the conference with all three losses by 28-27.

I don't know how computer rankings matter at all this year, at least for the first 4-5 games, since the last useful data is almost 2 years old.

[Reign of Terrier]

Computer rankings are always going to be inferior for football - especially FCS football - for a few reasons:

Sample size of games (11) and especially those key OOC games (1-3, pending on schedule) are going to be wayyyyyy inferior to baseball and basketball
The nature of football, relative to basketball and baseball is more difficult to encapsulate because of the moving parts associated with (there's 11 players doing 11 different things, many of which won't be capture by data or plugged into a system)
Relative to Baseball (minimum of 27 batters) and Basketball (dozens of possessions), the amount of possessions/opportunities you have to score as a team (or prevent scoring as a team) is much lower (some teams like the Citadel may limit possessions to 9 each for each team, while air raids like Samford will shoot for 18 if they've hit their stride).
At the same time, the *volatility of each play* is extremely variable relative to basketball or baseball in terms of determining scoring outcomes. If you make a bad mistake in basketball, the maximum point swing it can mean for your team is 6 points (think, blocking a three, then making it on the other end). For baseball, one would think it's a grand slam, but I'd argue it's a simple homerun (so 1). In football, you can have a literal 14 point swing on one play (think throwing a pick on the goal line that goes back for six).


Basically, there's a sampling problem and a volatility problem. For me, the volatility is the big point against using computer rankings in FCS and why I'm so annoyed by CAA/MVFC/Big Sky folks who wave them at us. Like, it can be the case that a team is predictably better than most others (think NDSU, JMU), but given the volatility of individual plays and the limit of each game, it's very hard to predict with the same degree of certainty as just picking winners.

So it's one thing to say "I think team x is better than team y because of what they've done on the field" but it's another to say "I can absolve this with math." It may be the case that some conferences are consistently better than others, but there's a qualitative difference between being, say, a score better (weeps in Wofford losses in the playoffs) and a blowout loss (whatever the CAA puts into the semis that isn't JMU). More often than not, at the top levels of FCS, you'll just see a simple predictable slight win than the blowout, and when the blowout happens, it's usually attributable to 1-2 big plays early and it snowballing from there.

A good example of this is how Wofford and Furman have played each other over the last 5 years or so. In 2018, Furman kicked Wofford's butt, after Wofford kicked Furman's butt in 2017, and then Wofford once again controlled the game in 2019. If you look at the stats that are measured outside of the scoreboard, you'd see a lot closer game. But if you used the scoreboard only as the indicator, you'd miss something big. That's why I'm not as bullish at looking at simple outcomes or even playoff progression or how conference A has beaten conference B historically. Because usually the one's who think that there is good evidence here are actually just pushing a superiority PR campaign (which works).

Like, we're supposed to think (according to computers) that Montana is so much better than Wofford or Kennesaw State because they whipped Weber State in the regular season and then lost to Weber by a similar Margin as KSU (who beat Wofford in a competitive game). If you know anything about football or any of the above, this is obviously not true.

[SU DOG]

My goodness…I thought Furman was the Team that is going to sell Wicked Weed in their stadium this year. Seems like you boys from Samford mighta been partaking a bit ahead of kickoff…

Select a match-up for CF 2021 (https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/ratings)



Mercer


at


W Carolina





Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/358435/4649)
Macon, GA, USA
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/358435/8742)
Cullowhee, NC, USA


Actual Score
0
0


Most Likely
27
28


Median
27
28


Mean
28.58
28.91


Win Probability
49%
51%




What I'm looking at:

Massey Ratings Matchup Tool (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=358435&oid0=4649&h=0&s1=358435&oid1=8742)

[Reign of Terrier]

Also, it's worth mentioning that, for some reason that 27-28 prediction thing is like, I dunno, the standard prediction they have for toss up

[FUBeAR]

What I'm looking at:

Massey Ratings Matchup Tool (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=358435&oid0=4649&h=0&s1=358435&oid1=8742)C’mon SU DOG - they ain’t playing this in the Mercedes-Benz Dome in ATL — you gotta change “vs.” to “at” to account for the Catamounts’ Home Field advantage.

[SU DOG]

Yep, FUB is RIGHT.

[FUBeAR]

Yep, FUBeAR is RIGHT.
If we begin all of our interactions with this as the default, things will flow much more smoothly. :D

[SU DOG]

The man is SO HUMBLE also!

[ElCid]

It wasn't that long ago when UTC went 5-3 in the conference with all three losses by 28-27.

I don't know how computer rankings matter at all this year, at least for the first 4-5 games, since the last useful data is almost 2 years old.

That 28-27 season was epic. Hard to believe it's been ten years ago.

[ElCid]

Computer rankings are always going to be inferior for football - especially FCS football - for a few reasons:

Sample size of games (11) and especially those key OOC games (1-3, pending on schedule) are going to be wayyyyyy inferior to baseball and basketball
The nature of football, relative to basketball and baseball is more difficult to encapsulate because of the moving parts associated with (there's 11 players doing 11 different things, many of which won't be capture by data or plugged into a system)
Relative to Baseball (minimum of 27 batters) and Basketball (dozens of possessions), the amount of possessions/opportunities you have to score as a team (or prevent scoring as a team) is much lower (some teams like the Citadel may limit possessions to 9 each for each team, while air raids like Samford will shoot for 18 if they've hit their stride).
At the same time, the *volatility of each play* is extremely variable relative to basketball or baseball in terms of determining scoring outcomes. If you make a bad mistake in basketball, the maximum point swing it can mean for your team is 6 points (think, blocking a three, then making it on the other end). For baseball, one would think it's a grand slam, but I'd argue it's a simple homerun (so 1). In football, you can have a literal 14 point swing on one play (think throwing a pick on the goal line that goes back for six).


Basically, there's a sampling problem and a volatility problem. For me, the volatility is the big point against using computer rankings in FCS and why I'm so annoyed by CAA/MVFC/Big Sky folks who wave them at us. Like, it can be the case that a team is predictably better than most others (think NDSU, JMU), but given the volatility of individual plays and the limit of each game, it's very hard to predict with the same degree of certainty as just picking winners.

So it's one thing to say "I think team x is better than team y because of what they've done on the field" but it's another to say "I can absolve this with math." It may be the case that some conferences are consistently better than others, but there's a qualitative difference between being, say, a score better (weeps in Wofford losses in the playoffs) and a blowout loss (whatever the CAA puts into the semis that isn't JMU). More often than not, at the top levels of FCS, you'll just see a simple predictable slight win than the blowout, and when the blowout happens, it's usually attributable to 1-2 big plays early and it snowballing from there.

A good example of this is how Wofford and Furman have played each other over the last 5 years or so. In 2018, Furman kicked Wofford's butt, after Wofford kicked Furman's butt in 2017, and then Wofford once again controlled the game in 2019. If you look at the stats that are measured outside of the scoreboard, you'd see a lot closer game. But if you used the scoreboard only as the indicator, you'd miss something big. That's why I'm not as bullish at looking at simple outcomes or even playoff progression or how conference A has beaten conference B historically. Because usually the one's who think that there is good evidence here are actually just pushing a superiority PR campaign (which works).

Like, we're supposed to think (according to computers) that Montana is so much better than Wofford or Kennesaw State because they whipped Weber State in the regular season and then lost to Weber by a similar Margin as KSU (who beat Wofford in a competitive game). If you know anything about football or any of the above, this is obviously not true.

These are all good points, but on average, the volatility issue doesn't happen every game. I think the computers have their purpose and they are right more than wrong, but there are obvious flaws. They certainly have no way of quantifying upset factors or volatility. I should go back to 2019 and see how they did on SOCON matchups (that would be manageable) and look at points as well as W/Ls. One thing I noticed by casual observation is that the computers seem to do better with some conferences than others. As I recall, they do not do good with the SOCON but it been a while since I looked at that data.

[Reign of Terrier]

These are all good points, but on average, the volatility issue doesn't happen every game. I think the computers have their purpose and they are right more than wrong, but there are obvious flaws. They certainly have no way of quantifying upset factors or volatility. I should go back to 2019 and see how they did on SOCON matchups (that would be manageable) and look at points as well as W/Ls. One thing I noticed by casual observation is that the computers seem to do better with some conferences than others. As I recall, they do not do good with the SOCON but it been a while since I looked at that data.

They're good at predicting conference games, but not OOC because they have a low sample for cross reference IMO

[Scrappy94]

The Citadel at Coastal Carolina
Point at Mercer
Tennessee Tech at Samford
Austin Peay at Chattanooga
Davidson at VMI
NC A&T at Furman
Wofford at Elon
Eastern Kentucky at Western Carolina
ETSU at Vanderbilt

[SonuvaHenx2]

Coastal Carolina
Mercer
Samford
Chattanooga
VMI
NC A&T
Elon
Eastern Kentucky
Vanderbilt

[ElCid]

They're good at predicting conference games, but not OOC because they have a low sample for cross reference IMO

Yeah, your right in general, but the SOCON has been weird the last few years so I'm not sure they have done a good job with us. From memory they do pretty good with the Big Sky and MVFC and not do good with Colonial or us. Can't remember the others very well.

[caribbeanhen]

Coastal Carolina
Mercer
Samford
Austin Peay
VMI
Furman
Wofford
Western Carolina
Vanderbilt

my picks are based on the premise that things are not gonna go according to plan

I just caught some Furman hi lights.... Ryan Miller is a stud..... pick changed accordingly to Furman over NCAT

[Milktruck74]

Yeah, your right in general, but the SOCON has been weird the last few years so I'm not sure they have done a good job with us. From memory they do pretty good with the Big Sky and MVFC and not do good with Colonial or us. Can't remember the others very well.

I think you are right. I won't say there is more parity in the SoCon than in the other leagues, because I think PARITY is one of the most over used words in sports these days...However, I think that almost any team in the SoCon can beat any other depending on how they show up. I think there are some SoCon Teams that are markedly more talented than others, but many do not play up to their abilities each and every week. And there are some teams that are going to always get the best shot (ie, Cit and VIM are always going to play beyond their abilities against each other...Furple and Woffy too).

Or MAybe the better way of saying it...SoCon is a little too "Streaky" for MAssey to hit right every week.

[Reign of Terrier]

Obviously, the Spring is a big counterpoint to what I am about to say, but if you look through the data, the only thing that's more apparent than parity is that Wofford ran the conference from 2017-2019, rising above that parity.

Now, obviously, people on this forum will disagree with that assessment, but it's "what the data shows" (if you take out Samford - a huge if - Wofford only lost one conference game). If your first reaction is "hey that's BS!" than you're right and you agree with me that final data for football statistics is kind of bad.

[ElCid]

I think you are right. I won't say there is more parity in the SoCon than in the other leagues, because I think PARITY is one of the most over used words in sports these days...However, I think that almost any team in the SoCon can beat any other depending on how they show up. I think there are some SoCon Teams that are markedly more talented than others, but many do not play up to their abilities each and every week. And there are some teams that are going to always get the best shot (ie, Cit and VIM are always going to play beyond their abilities against each other...Furple and Woffy too).

Or MAybe the better way of saying it...SoCon is a little too "Streaky" for MAssey to hit right every week.

I understand what you are saying, but I don't necessarily agree with the whole talent concept which many ascribe to. I don't think there is a huge difference in potential talent. I don't "just" think some players don't play up to their ability: none do. They are college kids. I don't expect them to and why I love college football. And that's why we have coaches. Also, ability includes consistency each and every day, week. If they don't have that consistency, then they are not as good as everyone thinks. Potential talent is one thing, and actual demonstrated, consistent talent another. And I've seen too many players with a buzz that don't pan out. And seemingly average players who are branded as such, but they really can be better due to their consistency. I just view it differently and hold a dim view to the usual buzz that surrounds some players, not the players themselves.

But you are right about parity in the SOCON. Has any team consistently lost to any another team the last 4-5 years? One, maybe two, at most. That makes it more fun. That is why I liked VMI doing better. Now, if we can get WCU turned around it will get even more fun.

[Reign of Terrier]

Talent is extremely overrated at the FCS level. A big part of FCS discourse is influenced by the 90s and early 2000s when talent discrepancies were much bigger. I recently learned (in the P5 thread of all places) that it used to be normal in the 90s for programs like Nebraska to have like the equivalent of 3 modern teams on one with 200 players on roster. The NCAA cracked down on that in the mid-90s, making (in my view) a trickle down effect where the talent has increased at G5 and the top of the FCS level. It's a supply thing.

That + innovations in the game itself (think spread concepts) have made the game a lot more dynamic than it was in the early 2000s. Just go back and look at the 2003 Wofford-Georgia Southern game on Youtube. Both of those teams were top 20 caliber 1-aa teams, but if you look at how they played it was quite literally 3 yards and a cloud of dust. I may get canceled for saying this, but I don't think either team finishes in the top half of the socon in 2021 (or 2016 for that matter)

I mean, there's a reason why Georgia Southern (before they left for FBS) was the only option program able to score consistently above 30 points in the playoffs in the last five years of their program at this level, and even then under Monken they weren't nearly as prolific against top-tier competition as they were under Johnson. And it's because the personnel they played against was better. They had more talent than other option teams like Wofford, but both were less effective because defenses got better.

I'm kind of digressing, but my point is, because of the ample supply of better players at this level relative to 25 years ago, it's a lot easier to ascend from the bottom to the middle tier and the middle tier to the top tier of FCS. Think of how Charleston Southern did their flash in the pan thing. Or how Chattanooga and Kennesaw State and ETSU were able to put together competitive programs almost over night.

This is because the talent difference, in aggregate, between programs like Chattanooga and Wofford and Furman and ETSU and Mercer is minimal. Now, I would probably say what helps some of those teams relative to Wofford or Furman is having a grad school one can recruit transfers for to maximize available eligibility, but that's a logistical challenge, not a talent one. IMO culture around football and logistical issues (academics and transfer stuff) is why there's a bigger difference between Pioneer/Patriot/NEC football and Socon/OVC/Big South than the latter with MVFC, Socon, Big South.

VMI and the Citadel are special cases in all of this because of their off-field requirements adds contraints. But the barriers for a team like Western Carolina - which has been pretty much bottom tier, not because of talent but because of coaching and playing in a better conference than most bottom tier programs in the FCS-to get back to the top tier (they were in it as recently as 2017!) is pretty small, at least relative to other FCS programs or even Socon programs in the 90s.

All of that is to say, as a Wofford fan I've been told my team is less talented for the last 20 years or so, relative to other teams. And yet we are still a top Socon team in terms of conference titles and a top 15 or so national program in terms of playoff wins in that time. Either talent is overrated or not what it's proponents say it is. I'm much more open to the argument that schools like Chattanooga and JMU and NDSU have an advantage over other programs because they have a grad school and relatively lower admission standards (even if I think this part is overblown), which allows more transfers and a higher baseline of experience, which can translate to a better team with more consistent outcomes, on average.

[SU DOG]

Week One SoCon Betting Lines - For Entertainment Purposes ONLY!!!

The Citadel @ Coastal - Beach Hens by 34.5 points.
Point @ Mercer - NA
TTU @ SAMFORD - Bulldogs by 13.5 points.
APSU @ UTC - Mocs by 2.5 points. Thought this spread would be wider.
Davidson @ VMI - Roos by 19.5 points.
NCA&T @ Furman - Paladins by 1.5 points.
Wofford @ Elon - Terriers by 6.5 points over Backsliders.
EKU @ WCU - Colonels by 10.5 points. Too big of spread?
ETSU @ Vandy - Dores by 21.5 points.

[ElCid]

But you are right about parity in the SOCON. Has any team consistently lost to any another team the last 4-5 years? One, maybe two, at most. That makes it more fun. That is why I liked VMI doing better. Now, if we can get WCU turned around it will get even more fun.


I went and crunched the numbers. I guess I have not registered how many team are being shut out of Ws by other teams the last 5 years. In those 5 years, Wofford holds the lead by keeping three teams winless. There are currently 5 teams that are winless against someone. WCU holds the wrong side of this record being winless against three different teams. VMI and The Citadel have not been kept from the W column by anyone, nor have they shut anyone out themselves. Furman and Chatty have beaten everyone at least once as well.

In the last five years.....

ETSU is winless (0-4) against Wofford.
Mercer is winless (0-5) against Wofford.
WCU is winless (0-4) against Wofford.
WCU is winless (0-5) against Furman.
WCU is winless (0-5) against Mercer.
Wofford is winless (0-5) against Samford.
Samford is winless (0-4) against Chatty.


Look at the last two. Wofford hasn't beaten Samford, and Samford hasn't beaten Chatty...now consider that Chatty is 1-4 against Wofford!!!!! No wonder the computer has a hard time with the SOCON.

[walliver]

I think one of the things that makes the SoCon so hard to predict is that the conference is much less homogeneous than most other conferences. We have teams that rarely pass, teams that rarely run, and more conventional teams. Frequently teams just match up differently.

As for Wofford ignominious streak against Samford, it has seemed that somehow Samford's defense has made the 4th quarter stops and we haven't. It really feels strange attributing the advantage to Samford's defense, but that seems to be the difference most years.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

1. Chatty
2. Samford.
3. Furman
4. ETSU
5. VMI
6. Wofford
7. The Citadel
8. Mercer
9. Western Carolina

Coastal by 28
Mercer by 21
Samford by 10
Chatty by 7
VMI by 14
Furman by 3
Elon by 6
EKU by 14
Vandy by 17

[FUBeAR]

I guess I've put this off about as long as I can...



Away
Home
Prediculation


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30The Citadel (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2020/11/30/Coastal_Carolina_Chanticleers_logo_svg.png?width=3 0Coastal Carolina (https://goccusports.com/index.aspx)
Dang, I wish I could pick the bellhops in this one to complete SoCon SWEEP Week, but, alas, I cannot. Chadwell lives, CDC-eviction-protected, inside their collective head(s) and the Beach Cheekins have more talent.
CCU 42 - CIT 14


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/point_logo.png?width=30Point (http://www.pointskyhawks.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
The SkyHawks show up SkyHigh, but they are no Reinhardt. Bears Maul 'em!
Mercer 52 - Point 7


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Tennessee-Tech.png?width=30Tennessee Tech (http://www.ttusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
Samford is prone to start a bit slow, but with the experience they gained this spring and a veteran crew, they will flash early this season.
Samford 49 - TTU 17


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/ap_monicle_gentleman.png?width=30Austin Peay (http://letsgopeay.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
APSU still getting too much credit for 1 kinda sorta good year. Gov's are governed.
Chattanooga 35 - APSU 14


Saturday, September 4, 2021


Away
Home
Prediculation


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/e20.png?width=30Davidson (http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
Keydets know how to play D against Davy's O, but Mildcats don't have an answer for Herres and VMI's O.
VMI 42 - DC 21


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/North-Carolina-AT.png?width=30North Carolina A&T (http://www.ncataggies.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
This is a big one Sports Fans. All will be forgiven for last Spring if the 'Dins get off on the good foot (like JB used to sing it) in this one. It's a war, but the Aggies have a lot of rust to burnish off.
Furman 24 - NC A&T 21


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wofford.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/elon_logo.png?width=30Elon (http://www.elonphoenix.com/)
Pretty sure both of these squads quit last spring. So, they're both LOSERS in FUBeAR's ledger. No idea what to expect from either of them as they aspire for redemption. Just can't pick the E*Loan Formerly Fightin' Former Christians to win. So...
Wofford 21 - E*Loan 17


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/E%20Logo%20for%20Sidearm.png?width=30Eastern Kentucky (http://www.ekusports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
What Catamount fans are expecting to be their "Shock the World" tour gets off to a good start.
WCU 31 - EKU 24


https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Vanderbilt_Commodores.png?width=30Vanderbilt (http://www.vucommodores.com/)
If the Commode-Doors look anything like they did last Fall, the Mountain Pirates will run their ship aground. They do and the Bucs pick up FBS Scalp #1 for 2021 (BUT...ONLY if they listen to FUBeAR and NEVER pass the ball)
ETSU 20 - VU 14



Power Rankings
1a) Furman
1b) Mercer
3) Samford
4) Chattanooga
5) VMI
6) ETSU
7) WCU
8) CIT
9) Woffy

Why, you ask. Why not, FUBeAR simply replies.

[caribbeanhen]

Talent is extremely overrated at the FCS level. A big part of FCS discourse is influenced by the 90s and early 2000s when talent discrepancies were much bigger. I recently learned (in the P5 thread of all places) that it used to be normal in the 90s for programs like Nebraska to have like the equivalent of 3 modern teams on one with 200 players on roster. The NCAA cracked down on that in the mid-90s, making (in my view) a trickle down effect where the talent has increased at G5 and the top of the FCS level. It's a supply thing.

That + innovations in the game itself (think spread concepts) have made the game a lot more dynamic than it was in the early 2000s. Just go back and look at the 2003 Wofford-Georgia Southern game on Youtube. Both of those teams were top 20 caliber 1-aa teams, but if you look at how they played it was quite literally 3 yards and a cloud of dust. I may get canceled for saying this, but I don't think either team finishes in the top half of the socon in 2021 (or 2016 for that matter)

I mean, there's a reason why Georgia Southern (before they left for FBS) was the only option program able to score consistently above 30 points in the playoffs in the last five years of their program at this level, and even then under Monken they weren't nearly as prolific against top-tier competition as they were under Johnson. And it's because the personnel they played against was better. They had more talent than other option teams like Wofford, but both were less effective because defenses got better.

I'm kind of digressing, but my point is, because of the ample supply of better players at this level relative to 25 years ago, it's a lot easier to ascend from the bottom to the middle tier and the middle tier to the top tier of FCS. Think of how Charleston Southern did their flash in the pan thing. Or how Chattanooga and Kennesaw State and ETSU were able to put together competitive programs almost over night.

This is because the talent difference, in aggregate, between programs like Chattanooga and Wofford and Furman and ETSU and Mercer is minimal. Now, I would probably say what helps some of those teams relative to Wofford or Furman is having a grad school one can recruit transfers for to maximize available eligibility, but that's a logistical challenge, not a talent one. IMO culture around football and logistical issues (academics and transfer stuff) is why there's a bigger difference between Pioneer/Patriot/NEC football and Socon/OVC/Big South than the latter with MVFC, Socon, Big South.

VMI and the Citadel are special cases in all of this because of their off-field requirements adds contraints. But the barriers for a team like Western Carolina - which has been pretty much bottom tier, not because of talent but because of coaching and playing in a better conference than most bottom tier programs in the FCS-to get back to the top tier (they were in it as recently as 2017!) is pretty small, at least relative to other FCS programs or even Socon programs in the 90s.

All of that is to say, as a Wofford fan I've been told my team is less talented for the last 20 years or so, relative to other teams. And yet we are still a top Socon team in terms of conference titles and a top 15 or so national program in terms of playoff wins in that time. Either talent is overrated or not what it's proponents say it is. I'm much more open to the argument that schools like Chattanooga and JMU and NDSU have an advantage over other programs because they have a grad school and relatively lower admission standards (even if I think this part is overblown), which allows more transfers and a higher baseline of experience, which can translate to a better team with more consistent outcomes, on average.

how many games do you think the FCS is going to win this week? Ill say 1

[Reign of Terrier]

how many games do you think the FCS is going to win this week? Ill say 1

Obviously just the Bizon

[caribbeanhen]

Obviously just the Bizon

not tracking

Bison are playing Albany

[ElCid]

Chatty just dodged a bullet with the AP player tripping on guaranteed kickoff return TD. Pretty funny to watch.

[ElCid]

We are looking rusty and sloppy against CCU. They are running and passing at will and stuffing our run. Our QB has improved zero in the pass game. Oh well.

[Milktruck74]

Chatty just dodged a bullet with the AP player tripping on guaranteed kickoff return TD. Pretty funny to watch.

Dude...Really....did you not see how our Kicker used his powerful lungs to blow him down as he passed by?

[ElCid]

OMG. We look horrible. Missed tackles every play. Not sure they know the season started. Can't blame new players as we got just about everybody back. Sure CCU is actually good, but still. I'm suitably unimpressed so far.

[FUBeAR]

I haven’t been watching that closely until the 4th quarter, but if FUBeAR were the HC @ Chattanooga, the Robert Riddle Era for the Mocs would have begun quite a bit earlier tonight.

Does this likely loss damage Chatt’s sure-fire National Championship prospectus or should we all just assume that APSU is the 2nd best Team in FCS and the Mocks will get ‘em in the rematch in Frisco?

Oh…I know…the ChattaQuitta Starters are still boycotting and this game doesn’t really count. Is that it?

LOL - NOT a good live look-in on the Mocks sideline just now. Watching the HC kick a Player off the sideline & and send him to the locker room…doesn’t exactly bode well, IMHO. Trouble in The Scenic City?

[ETSUfan1]

You hate to see it.

[FUBeAR]

You hate to see it.FUBeAR does hate it for the SoCon, but that HoF LB, K. Arma, is a MF’er. ChattaQuitta (and Woffraud) F’d w/the other 7 SoCon Teams this Spring and K. Arma has already smacked one of ‘em in the mouth. FUBeAR was pulling for the Mocks to win, but no tears will he shed.

[Reign of Terrier]

Thoughts on the games so far (I only watched a little bit of UTC-APSU):

Teams that looked good and I can't say anything other than that, because I'm not sure how good their opponent is or I know they were awful:
Samford and Mercer.

I'm more impressed with Samford's performance because TTU looked very good at times in the spring, and Samford usually doesn't look good (For whatever reason) in the early part of the season. We'll see if they can continue the pace.

Teams that didn't look good (and I can't say anything other than that, etc etc)
The Citadel and Chattanooga.

I'm more disappointed in Chattanooga. Maybe the signal I thought I was getting from them in the spring was just noise? Their defense didn't looks great, letting up over 400 yards, and not getting off the field at key times in the second half. Drayton Arnold, who looked absolutely wonderful at times in the spring, completed less than 50% of his passes, while the chattanooga defense let up over 300 yards in the air and over 100 on the ground. All at the same time, they failed to rush for 100 yards. And APSU kind of handed UTC some yardage with over 100 yards in penalties.

Admittedly, maybe Austin Peay is good again (it's too early to tell), but this is not the kind of performance I expected and not one you'd expect if you think UTC can or should win the Socon. Then again, they have a history of losing games against the top tier of the OVC, even when good, so we'll see.

As for the Citadel, I'm only slightly surprised they lost by that margin. Coastal is good under Chadwell and they have Staggs at DC (who is good at stopping the option). And of course, Coastal is FBS. So I don't think you can take that much from this game. The Citadel will have the same strengths, weaknesses, challenges, and advantages they have every year. What that amounts to, I don't know.

[ElCid]

As for the Citadel, I'm only slightly surprised they lost by that margin. Coastal is good under Chadwell and they have Staggs at DC (who is good at stopping the option). And of course, Coastal is FBS. So I don't think you can take that much from this game. The Citadel will have the same strengths, weaknesses, challenges, and advantages they have every year. What that amounts to, I don't know.

Our D looked bad. Tackling was poor and our secondary was marginal. It might have been affected by the personal issues of one of our DBs. He was suspended last week and most likely will be kicked out of school. Our O was, eh. Our QB seems to have not improved much throwing. He is fast on his feet, but slow in making decisions when throwing. And not very accurate to boot. And he went down as well. Not sure how bad it is. Backup did good. Better passer as well. He is a tad bit slower running, but I think he is better overall. We didn't get too creative when it came to play calling. It may be a long season. CCU is also much better than I thought. They are big and fast. I was skeptical of their ranking but I think they could go toe to toe with most teams from any FBS conference.

[SCPALADIN]

Admittedly, maybe Austin Peay is good again (it's too early to tell), but this is not the kind of performance I expected and not one you'd expect if you think UTC can or should win the Socon. Then again, they have a history of losing games against the top tier of the OVC, even when good, so we'll see.

Watched the entire game on replay and I still can't decide if AP's offense was good or Chatt's D was that bad (or both?).

The SoCon,as a whole, needs to step up and win more big OOC games. Hoping Saturday starts this trend.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I haven’t been watching that closely until the 4th quarter, but if FUBeAR were the HC @ Chattanooga, the Robert Riddle Era for the Mocs would have begun quite a bit earlier tonight.

Does this likely loss damage Chatt’s sure-fire National Championship prospectus or should we all just assume that APSU is the 2nd best Team in FCS and the Mocks will get ‘em in the rematch in Frisco?

Oh…I know…the ChattaQuitta Starters are still boycotting and this game doesn’t really count. Is that it?

LOL - NOT a good live look-in on the Mocks sideline just now. Watching the HC kick a Player off the sideline & and send him to the locker room…doesn’t exactly bode well, IMHO. Trouble in The Scenic City?

.....LEAST....DERE'S....AN AQUARIUM......BRAWK!

[Reign of Terrier]

Watched the entire game on replay and I still can't decide if AP's offense was good or Chatt's D was that bad (or both?).

The SoCon,as a whole, needs to step up and win more big OOC games. Hoping Saturday starts this trend.

Yep, it's unreasonable to expect any conference to absolutely run the table out of conference, but it's important for playoff consideration. Wofford and Furman really have to perform to keep those hopes alive. This isn't a bad loss by UTC, but the conference will look bad if we lose any more games to question mark programs. Which unfortunately, may be most of the remaining teams the conference plays, short of A&T and KSU

[Reign of Terrier]

So, I almost posted that the socon has more to lose in these OOC games upcoming, but my opinion is starting to change on that.

The Big South, for whatever reason, has more ranked teams in the STATS poll right now (3 v 2) and the socon will probably go down to one with Chattanooga losing. Furman against A&T is going to be huge this weekend. And Wofford against Kennesaw in about 2 weeks will be as well (to say nothing of Wofford vs Elon).

So actually...we have quite a bit to gain.

[The Cats]

So, I almost posted that the socon has more to lose in these OOC games upcoming, but my opinion is starting to change on that.

The Big South, for whatever reason, has more ranked teams in the STATS poll right now (3 v 2) and the socon will probably go down to one with Chattanooga losing. Furman against A&T is going to be huge this weekend. And Wofford against Kennesaw in about 2 weeks will be as well (to say nothing of Wofford vs Elon).

So actually...we have quite a bit to gain.

Is KSU ranked? If so, they shouldn't be. Only beat NAIA's Reinhardt by 10 points. Reinhardt hung with them the entire game.

[ElCid]

So, I almost posted that the socon has more to lose in these OOC games upcoming, but my opinion is starting to change on that.

The Big South, for whatever reason, has more ranked teams in the STATS poll right now (3 v 2) and the socon will probably go down to one with Chattanooga losing. Furman against A&T is going to be huge this weekend. And Wofford against Kennesaw in about 2 weeks will be as well (to say nothing of Wofford vs Elon).

So actually...we have quite a bit to gain.

KSU lost some shine in their "win" yesterday. Still a needed win for SOCON, but I would also add CSU to that list in a week against us. A win for us would be a small gain but huge debit if we lose. If you and Furman lose this week, we are toast.

[Reign of Terrier]

I watched bits and pieces of the KSU game and here are what I learned:

They've suffered lots of injured this fall - most of them non-major - and that's prevented them from practicing at full capacity
They still have that QB who ran all over the field against us in 2019, but he went down with what I presume is a minor injury. He went down sometime in the second half, but still had 98 yards rushing on 16 carries.
They "only" rushed for about 330 yards and had about 400 yards of total offense. That's okay, but you would expect them to hit 500 or so yards of offense against an NAIA team
Reinhardt has a good offense (just look at their stats). Even though they are/play with inferior competition, if you're an efficient or high scoring team, that signals some baseline competence and execution capabilities.
But still...it's Reinhardt. KSU held the ball for 15 more minutes and had 55 yards less penalties and they only won by 10. They would have won by 7 if RU didn't miss 2 XPs. RU completed 12 of 18 passes and averaged 7 yards per carry on the ground. That's not good.


And the problem with figuring out how good or bad KSU is, is that traditionally this is how 80% of their "bad" games during the regular season go. They have a higher ceiling than most teams in the FCS but because they play so many awful teams, normal kinks that happen with any team just so happen to make the score look closer. They can have an off day, where if they were playing an average or above average team they'd lose, but because they're playing an awful team, they win. And those games will have no bearing on how competitive they can be with most southern FCS teams. They haven't been blown out in the playoffs yet.

[Smitty]

We are looking rusty and sloppy against CCU. They are running and passing at will and stuffing our run. Our QB has improved zero in the pass game. Oh well.

If it wasn't for the different uniform I would have thought I was watching western play.

[FUBeAR]

"There were a lot of differences in us and they played in a way we don't see a lot in our league," said head coach Rusty Wright.

Huh?

WTF is this supposed to mean?

maybe…
1) they actually showed up to play a scheduled game?
2) their starters/Team Leaders didn’t tell their Coaches that they just didn’t want to be bothered to play a scheduled game?
3) APSU played with 14 players on both sides of the ball?

Sorry, but Coach Wright’s Mocks have won exactly 1/2 of the SoCon games they have been scheduled to play in 2 full SoCon seasons under his rein. Needs to earn a lot more SoCon cred in FUBeAR’s ledger before he can get off dissing the SoCon, while trying to make a historically awful OVC Team, that just whipped his a$$, seem like the 2nd coming of the NDSU dynasty.



Keep F’in with K. Arma. That dude is gonna keep lighting’ you up. He’s a MF’er!

[FUBeAR]

Always time for a bit of levity in SoCon Football…of course there is. Noice!

https://twitter.com/caleb_shs13/status/1433624997201911812

The 315 comments (currently) are worth the read. FUBeAR’s favorite…”Heisman frontrunner”

[Reign of Terrier]

Yeah RW's comments are just weird. Okay, maybe they play tempo and they run a competent spread and defense. You know who else played tempo for years? Western Carolina.

Obviously I'm not as smart on the X's and o's of football as a football coach but I find his explanation not-compelling

[tallgeorgiagent]

Yeah RW's comments are just weird. Okay, maybe they play tempo and they run a competent spread and defense. You know who else played tempo for years? Western Carolina.

Obviously I'm not as smart on the X's and o's of football as a football coach but I find his explanation not-compellingI guess I would be saying weird things [emoji1745] too if I got outcoached as bad as he did. This was a very disappointing effort. No discipline, vanilla play calling with NO imagination. Never pulled the starting QB who can't throw it more than 10-15 yards down field. Defense was good against the run, but the secondary was shredded. I hope by next game that we have another QB inserted as the starter.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

I just caught some Furman hi lights.... Ryan Miller is a stud..... pick changed accordingly to Furman over NCAT

I'm impressed, he just layed some Southern speed out there

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford beats Elon 24 22.

A good win. Lots of mistakes on offense, but it was one of those games where it was clearly a chess match between the two coaches. Elon is better than I thought they were. Is Wofford or Elon any good? Who knows, but this is a good win.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yo @FUBear, what's up with Mercer only playing 10 games this year? Only FCS teams they play are in the Socon

[Smitty]

It's strange that's at half time western is only down by a point. Usually it's by 20 at this point

[FUBeAR]

Great job Bucs! Whoda thunk it?



https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Vanderbilt_Commodores.png?width=30Vanderbilt (http://www.vucommodores.com/)
If the Commode-Doors look anything like they did last Fall, the Mountain Pirates will run their ship aground. They do and the Bucs pick up FBS Scalp #1 for 2021 (BUT...ONLY if they listen to FUBeAR and NEVER pass the ball)
ETSU 20 - VU 14

[ElCid]

I just knew you would crow. But that's ok.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Riddell Played well (I will learn to spell his name eventually). One of the reasons why ETSU led so comfortably is because he didn't turn the ball over.

The story of the Vandy game was ETSU controlling the LOS and running the ball like grown men. And Vandy was just awful on offense, not all of which was caused by ETSU, but that doesn't change the fact that ETSU just controlled everything about that game.

[ETSUfan1]

God, that felt good. Don’t think we’re 6th in the SoCon….

[FUBeAR]

God, that felt good. Don’t think we’re 6th in the SoCon….Not ready to confer ETSU anything higher than #6 in SoCon, but am willing to stipulate that Vandy is no better than 7th.

Despite ChattaQuitta pooping the Posturepedic this week and WCU, understandably, falling a bit short, the SoCon represented quite well. When Mercer SHOCKS THE WORLD next week, people will know.

[FUBeAR]

Yo @FUBear, what's up with Mercer only playing 10 games this year? Only FCS teams they play are in the Socon
You don’t think a 9-0-1 Regular Season record is good enough to earn a seed?

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Great job Bucs! Whoda thunk it?



https://soconsports.com/images/2020/1/2/etsu_logo.png?width=30ETSU (http://www.etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/Vanderbilt_Commodores.png?width=30Vanderbilt (http://www.vucommodores.com/)
If the Commode-Doors look anything like they did last Fall, the Mountain Pirates will run their ship aground. They do and the Bucs pick up FBS Scalp #1 for 2021 (BUT...ONLY if they listen to FUBeAR and NEVER pass the ball)
ETSU 20 - VU 14




And you were one of only two people that had the Bucs beating Vandyland. You had more faith in the Bucs than I did at the time.

[SU DOG]

CONGRATS ETSU! IMO, you are not 6th in the SoCon.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

When ETSU restarted its football program a few years ago, the Phranchise first reached out to Randy Sanders who was already at Florida State. Had ETSU made their announcements a few months or so earlier, I believed Sanders was gettable (he would not have had the second FBS title as an assistant to his name had he came). When ETSU was in its fourth year back, they played Big Brother, who was coached by Pru****t. Big Brother did not exactly set the world on fire (in fact, they were a dumpster fire). Had a Sanders (in his fourth year)-coached ETSU team were to face Big Brother that year, I think ETSU would have had a puncher's chance of knocking them off.

[FUBeAR]

Hmmm….I guess I better go to the Point @ Mercer game Thursday, since it’s the only Win that Mercer will have all year if Mr. Massey has his way.

His prediculation machine knows the Bears have won 5 of their last 7 & beat 3 Nationally ranked Teams in a row this Spring…right? 1-9 & 0-8 in the SoCon? Think Mr. Massey would be willing to put some money up against FUBeAR’s money regarding those predictions? Let him know where to find me if you see him. I need him to make a few mortgage payments for me.LOL - 2 weeks later & Massey is now projecting Mercer to (almost) get the SoCon Autobid…

He has…

Mercer 6-2 (losses to Furman & ETSU)
ETSU 6-2 (losses to Samford & Furman)
Samford 6-2 (losses to Mercer & Wofford)
Wofford 6-2 (losses to Mercer & ETSU)
Furman 5-3 (losses to Wofford, Chatt, Samford)
Chatt 4-4 (losses to ETSU, Samford, Wofford, Mercer)

So…if I get the SoCon tiebreaker…SAM & WOF out because they are 1-2 against 3 other Teams in tiebreaker, while Mercer & ETSU are 2-1 vs. Teams in tiebreaker, but ETSU edges Mercer out due to their H2H 28-24 win over the Bears at J-City in the final week of the season.

So…at 7-3/6-2, with only 6 D1 wins...but only losses to SoCon Autobid, #1 Alabama, and, possible Playoff Team, Furman…does Mercer get an At-Large bid…or nah?

…and…what about Furman? They would be (per Massey) 7-4 with 7 D1 wins and wins over the ‘last 2 standing’ in the SoCon tiebreaker, but 5th place in SoCon…Paladins in…or nah?

Cases could be made for Woffy & Samford as well…

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

To kick off the season, I am placing the teams in groups of 3, from most likely to least likely to make the playoffs.

MOST LIKELY
VMI - they won the title in the spring, they end up here
ETSU - the first team out of the playoffs also end up here
Mercer - had a great season in the spring

HAVE A CHANCE WITH A LITTLE LUCK
Furman - can the Paladins shake off the funk that bemired them
The Citadel - Bulldogs have the potential to be deadly
Samford - Bammerdogs could make some noise

NOT LIKELY
Western Carolina - won the coaching search lottery with Kerwin Bell
Chattanooga - not buying the hype surrounding them
Wofford - could Conklin be on his last legs here?


Spotted the SoCon standings after yesterday's game and it looked familiar. Outside of Chattanooga, looks like I got this right so far.