Presbyterian hires a winning - and crazy - coach !

[gofurman]

PC picked up the guy who wins a TON... almost never punts... laterals so you can't gang tackle or you get burned... kicks onsides a lot (standard KO go to 25 or on-sides recvd at about the 45.. but once or twice a game he gets a turnover which are the largest factor of who wins!)

I love this guy - pure analyticsc like Brad Stevens and the success he had at Butler basketball

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31400500/presbyterian-hiring-successful-unconventional-hs-coach-kevin-kelley-new-head-coach

this is a great article ! good read for football thinkers:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/08/13/the-highly-successful-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-has-another-radical-idea/

[acbearkat]

I have a feeling this hire will go about as well as the Todd Dodge hire at North Texas. In other words, not well.


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[caribbeanhen]

PC picked up the guy who wins a TON... almost never punts... laterals so you can't gang tackle or you get burned... kicks onsides a lot (standard KO go to 25 or on-sides recvd at about the 45.. but once or twice a game he gets a turnover which are the largest factor of who wins!)

I love this guy - pure analyticsc like Brad Stevens and the success he had at Butler basketball

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31400500/presbyterian-hiring-successful-unconventional-hs-coach-kevin-kelley-new-head-coach

this is a great article ! good read for football thinkers:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/08/13/the-highly-successful-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-has-another-radical-idea/

I already like this guy

punting is overrated

[gofurman]

I already like this guy

punting is overrated

pure analytics - like moneyball.. if it works he does it.. if the math doesn't show it works then he doesn't. It's that simple. He has dominated Arkansas HS football for a decaade

An example a friend noted once was "if there is one minute left and you are at midfield and trail by a TD.. do you go for it on 4th w no timeouts? Everyone agrees - SURE you do." And then he said "if there are three minutes left, and you trail by 10, I see many teams punt (including Furman). You might as well say we don't care about winning by doing that.. Unless the punt return man has a record of muffing the punt".. I started watching for this and he was right. Many many teams punt down two scores w 3/4 minutes left.. get the ball back w 1 minute left. You gave up the minute you made that punt. Just stupid

[DFW HOYA]

I have a feeling this hire will go about as well as the Todd Dodge hire at North Texas. In other words, not well.


Todd Dodge was the biggest swing-and-a-miss on a high school super coach since Gerry Faust.

[Puddin Tane]

NTSU played real teams, Pres, not so much

oughta be fun to watch

[acbearkat]

I don't know of any high school head coach who has ever been successful jumping straight from high school to being a college head coach. Sure, there are examples of high school head coaches being successful college head coaches, but most of them have had at least one year of experience coaching at the college level before becoming a head football coach in college. Examples of successful high school head coaches who have become successful college head coaches, or at least winning college head coaches, include Art Briles (take out why he was fired at Baylor and look at his on field results at UH and Baylor; spent three years as the running backs coach on Mike Leach's first staff at Texas Tech), Gus Malzahn (he spent several years being an college offensive coordinator before becoming a head coach), and I know some Jacksonville State fans will jump all over me for this one, but John Grass has overall been successful at Jacksonville State, and was a successful Alabama high school head coach before spending a year as offensive coordinator for Jacksonville State before taking over as head coach, and has ten or more wins in five of his seven seasons, and has made the FCS playoffs in six of his seven seasons.

The jury is out on Jeff Traylor, who was very successful as a head coach for Gilmer High School here in Texas. He spent several years as assistant at Texas (under the disastrous Charlie Strong era), SMU, and Arkansas before becoming the head coach at UTSA. I believe his brother is the head coach at what is now known as Tyler Legacy, formerly Tyler Lee, in Tyler, Texas, which is one my high school alma mater's long time rivals.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I will guarantee you he will punt as Presbyterian and probably do normal kickoffs as well. In order for not punting to make sense you have to have a high success rate on offense and he won't have that at PC.

[Bearkat04]

Todd dodge just won another state title here in Texas over his old school (Southlake Carrol) where his son (Riley) is the head coach

[BEAR]

Living in Arkansas and being part of the football scene here I've actually met the guy a few times. He's dead serious about not punting. Well at least at the high school level. Will be interesting to see if he changes his philosophy at the college level.
Bear fans were screaming for him after Clint Conque left UCA. It's not so much the lack of punting (which he believe you give up 25% of your offense if you do) but rather his ability to work with players and use their strengths. He brings an exciting brand of football to high school private level sports...but I'm wondering what he will do with the Hose. I also wonder if a 216-29 record at the smaller private school level will translate at PC. He may be comfortable at a lower level of college football and may stay there....but if he has some success at PC, I can see him moving on in a few years to an FBS lower level school. Apart from his lack of punting and on-side kicking, he tends to run plays that are a-typical for defenses to see. He lines them up in formations that confuse opponents.

It will be interesting to see...

[JSUSoutherner]

I don't know of any high school head coach who has ever been successful jumping straight from high school to being a college head coach. Sure, there are examples of high school head coaches being successful college head coaches, but most of them have had at least one year of experience coaching at the college level before becoming a head football coach in college. Examples of successful high school head coaches who have become successful college head coaches, or at least winning college head coaches, include Art Briles (take out why he was fired at Baylor and look at his on field results at UH and Baylor; spent three years as the running backs coach on Mike Leach's first staff at Texas Tech), Gus Malzahn (he spent several years being an college offensive coordinator before becoming a head coach), and I know some Jacksonville State fans will jump all over me for this one, but John Grass has overall been successful at Jacksonville State, and was a successful Alabama high school head coach before spending a year as offensive coordinator for Jacksonville State before taking over as head coach, and has ten or more wins in five of his seven seasons, and has made the FCS playoffs in six of his seven seasons.

The jury is out on Jeff Traylor, who was very successful as a head coach for Gilmer High School here in Texas. He spent several years as assistant at Texas (under the disastrous Charlie Strong era), SMU, and Arkansas before becoming the head coach at UTSA. I believe his brother is the head coach at what is now known as Tyler Legacy, formerly Tyler Lee, in Tyler, Texas, which is one my high school alma mater's long time rivals.

And Grass should walk his ass back on down the road to Oxford High.

[Libertine]

The wild offense and "never punt" things aren't going to be what makes this a good or bad hire. Presby has been down this road before -- 2007 -- by hiring an offensively innovative high school coach -- Bobby Bentley out of Byrnes HS -- and who was, by contemporary standards, fairly successful in his first year. However, Bentley never embraced being a part of the PC and Clinton community and, worse, never embraced the grind required of being an FCS football coach at the low end of the budgetary spectrum. Worst, Bentley only wanted to recruit offensive playmakers which meant he had crowded QB and WR rooms but not much on the lines on either side; after his first recruiting cycle, it didn't matter if his schemes were any good since D1 DL's blew right through his protections and his receivers going up against D1 DB's never had time to get any space. In my opinion, hiring Bentley set PC football back at least three years.

This guy will have to embrace the of reality -- and the scut work -- of being at a D1 liberal arts school whose campus occupies 1/4th of the town's land area, that is located at least an hour from everything, has an undergrad enrollment smaller than the private high school athletics factory (78% of the Pulaski student body is on a sports team) he just left in Little Rock, and whose fiercest rival -- and the only school that stirs the Blue Hose fanbase from their malaise -- is (still) D2 Newberry whom they haven't played in football in 15 years.

[WestCoastAggie]

They should probably change the name from Blue Hose to Blue Dice because they're going to be be gambling!

[acbearkat]

The wild offense and "never punt" things aren't going to be what makes this a good or bad hire. Presby has been down this road before -- 2007 -- by hiring an offensively innovative high school coach -- Bobby Bentley out of Byrnes HS -- and who was, by contemporary standards, fairly successful in his first year. However, Bentley never embraced being a part of the PC and Clinton community and, worse, never embraced the grind required of being an FCS football coach at the low end of the budgetary spectrum. Worst, Bentley only wanted to recruit offensive playmakers which meant he had crowded QB and WR rooms but not much on the lines on either side; after his first recruiting cycle, it didn't matter if his schemes were any good since D1 DL's blew right through his protections and his receivers going up against D1 DB's never had time to get any space. In my opinion, hiring Bentley set PC football back at least three years.

This guy will have to embrace the of reality -- and the scut work -- of being at a D1 liberal arts school whose campus occupies 1/4th of the town's land area, that is located at least an hour from everything, has an undergrad enrollment smaller than the private high school athletics factory (78% of the Pulaski student body is on a sports team) he just left in Little Rock, and whose fiercest rival -- and the only school that stirs the Blue Hose fanbase from their malaise -- is (still) D2 Newberry whom they haven't played in football in 15 years.

If this hire will be successful, it will be because he makes good staff hires. I'm not very sure it will be successful, however.

[Baron Sardonicus]

They should probably change the name from Blue Hose to Blue Dice because they're going to be be gambling!

Not much to lose. I have a feeling recruiting prospects will like him.

[Libertine]

If this hire will be successful, it will be because he makes good staff hires.

That actually brings up another good point. The biggest difference between HS and college is program management and you have to have guys whose ability and experience you can trust along with their character. Not just in recruiting but in managing their time, their own personnel and the program's financial resources. In this case, they also have to be willing to move their families -- most probably from metropolitan Arkansas -- to a wide spot in the road between Greenville and Columbia.

[CockyGeek]

He needs to have a good season so JSU can hire him. The complete opposite philosophy of John Grass and Co.

[JSUSoutherner]

He needs to have a good season so JSU can hire him. The complete opposite philosophy of John Grass and Co.

JSU has to can Grass before they can hire anyone else.

So I am hopeful that the AQ7 turns this team into a doormat.

[acbearkat]

JSU has to can Grass before they can hire anyone else.

So I am hopeful that the AQ7 turns this team into a doormat.

Be careful what you wish for. Nick Saban isn't leaving Alabama to come to Jacksonville State. I know you aren't happy with the playoff exits, and the lack of discipline, but things can change in a hurry. We had the same issue at Sam, where the team would commit stupid penalties, and when we made it to the playoffs, the defense would collapse against better teams. Go look at our games this year. The team this spring isn't hurting themselves with dumb penalties, and the defense has made a massive turnaround. In fact, I think there was one game in which we were called for just one penalty. It should be a fun game in Huntsville in the fall by the way. I'm hoping to be there for the Jacksonville State game. The WAC portion of the WAC/ASUN Challenge outside of Sam Houston and possibly SFA should be a cakewalk for Jacksonville State. Lamar isn't any good, I don't expect Abilene Christian to be all that good, and Tarleton State and Dixie State will be in their second seasons in the FCS. Jacksonville State gets SFA at home.

There were some on Katfans who wanted Keeler gone after the 2019 season.

[JSUSoutherner]

Be careful what you wish for. Nick Saban isn't leaving Alabama to come to Jacksonville State. I know you aren't happy with the playoff exits, and the lack of discipline, but still things can change in a hurry. We had the same issue at Sam, where the team would commit stupid penalties, and when we made it to the playoffs, the defense would collapse against better teams. Go look at our games this year. The team this spring isn't hurting themselves with dumb penalties, and the defense has made a massive turnaround. In fact, I think there was one game in which we were called for just one penalty. It should be a fun game in Huntsville in the fall by the way. I'm hoping to be there for the Jacksonville State game.

I'm sure you've heard the whole "definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results" line before.

It's been 6 years and Grass hasn't done anything different than what he was doing in 2014.

[wcugrad95]

As for coaches going straight from high school to a head college gig, this sounds similar to Kerwin Bell who went from the high school ranks to Jacksonville University (another Pioneer League program). Bell got that job primarily because of his offensive mind, and he was successful so far at Jacksonville then at Valdosta State. And of course I hope that continues now that he is the head man at WCU.

[caribbeanhen]

They should probably change the name from Blue Hose to Blue Dice because they're going to be be gambling!

might as well gamble when you have nothing to lose

[Puddin Tane]

5 cyber dollars from the cloud somewhere says he punts first time he’s inside his own 20 on 4th down!

[Puddin Tane]

Kerwin was a finalist for LU job 3? 4? Years ago. We went with highly unpopular Mike Schitz.

he did take us to the playoffs. That year sandwiched in between 2 garbage years

[acbearkat]

Kerwin was a finalist for LU job 3? 4? Years ago. We went with highly unpopular Mike Schitz.

Is that way he was fired? The first two head coaches when Lamar brought back their program were SHSU alums.


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[Puddin Tane]

I think multiple things
- he wasn’t much on personality
-turned us into juco u.
-and big money couldn’t stand him..neither could little money

no offense, but I was tired of Sam Houston alums. Gotta admit tho. I sure like OC dim whitens offense ( just go deep) a lot more than the Air Force flex bone.

but whitten was sfa alum, y’all’s ex HC?

our first one, Woodard was Kilgore/UT. Nice guy. But a little too loose on disciplne

[Daytripper]

I think multiple things
- he wasn’t much on personality
-turned us into juco u.
-and big money couldn’t stand him..neither could little money

no offense, but I was tired of Sam Houston alums. Gotta admit tho. I sure like OC dim whitens offense ( just go deep) a lot more than the Air Force flex bone.

Texas FCS football is better when Lamar is good. Crank it up.

[acbearkat]

I think multiple things
- he wasn’t much on personality
-turned us into juco u.
-and big money couldn’t stand him..neither could little money

no offense, but I was tired of Sam Houston alums. Gotta admit tho. I sure like OC dim whitens offense ( just go deep) a lot more than the Air Force flex bone.

At Lamar you can win big, IF the right coach is hired. It wasn’t until Willie Fritz, that Sam Houston began to realize its potential as a program.


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[Puddin Tane]

Texas FCS football is better when Lamar is good. Crank it up.

lordy we all want that. Being a lifetime fan has been rough.

I think we’re still 2 yrs away from being good. So young.

[Puddin Tane]

We had some good teams in the 50s or 60s.xlolx Couple decent years, I think late 70s early 80s. 2 good years in the 10 since we brought it back. Next fall will be ugly

[acbearkat]

Texas FCS football is better when Lamar is good. Crank it up.

We also need another in-state rival. Our only one is SFA.


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[Libertine]

It looks like the high school coach expected to bring in a crazy new offense to PC is keeping a couple of previous assistants (https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/college/bill-belichick-presbyterian-college-and-the-coach-who-never-punts/article_b8208680-af5b-11eb-ae33-43ca6c7c67da.html). The odd part -- or, at least, the part that goes against expectations -- is that he is keeping Joey Orck, Presby's existing offensive coordinator who will remain in that capacity.

Here's another great quote from Kelley's introductory press conference -- attended by Bill Belichick via Zoom, by the way -- that I'm sure sounded great to the gathered Presby faithful but which I know you AGS'ers will enjoy for other reasons:


“My goal this year is to win the Pioneer Conference,” he said. “I don’t think that’s out of reach at all, and to make the playoffs. And then next year, I want to compete for a national championship.

“I hope people don’t look at that and laugh too much, because that’s what I fully expect us to do with the kind of players I got to meet here yesterday.”

[Daytripper]

We had some good teams in the 50s or 60s.xlolx Couple decent years, I think late 70s early 80s. 2 good years in the 10 since we brought it back. Next fall will be ugly

One of, and maybe, the last starting QB you guys had in the late 70s before you went dormant went to my high school: Ray Campbell

[Libertine]

Well....

In Presby's first game under Crazy Coach Kelley, all the Blue Hose did was throw for an FCS record 12 touchdowns and win the game by the score of 84-43. Granted, that came against St. Andrews, an NAIA program in only its 5th year of existence and which has never won more than five games in a season. Still, Presbyterian football may finally be worth watching.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the plan behind this was PC knowing they'll never be conventionally competitive at this level (D1) and going back to D2 wasn't an option. So going pioneer and saving money was step one. Step two was making their product interesting, and overall the strategy I think will be successful. Successful means that they'll compete for pioneer championships on occasion.

With respect to the teams of Pioneer conference, everyone runs gimmicks there and the defense is non-existent, so I think they hired the right guy. Remember what Davidson did a few years back when they ran all over that one team that I can't remember? And then they won the pioneer? It's the same deal.

[Reign of Terrier]

In my opinion, what PC is doing will get them boat-raced against above average FCS competition. They don't need to worry about that because they will rarely play them. And when they do, well it may be the playoffs and they could have perfected their craft to make things interesting.

[Libertine]

In my opinion, what PC is doing will get them boat-raced against above average FCS competition. They don't need to worry about that because they will rarely play them. And when they do, well it may be the playoffs and they could have perfected their craft to make things interesting.

Oh, they're going to get boat-raced in their own conference. Still, I think they would welcome a boat race if they can finally keep up. This is kind of the polar opposite of what they were doing, which was superior defense and non-existent offense.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't think they'll get boat raced. At least not more than the average team in the pioneer. Just glancing at the top 5 teams from 2019, they regularly scored 40 points. And if highlight reels from Davidson are any indicator...a lot of those points come from long distance. In some ways, field position may not matter as much in the Pioneer, from a defensive standpoint.

[caribbeanhen]

I love the coach, the QB throws a very nice football and has a big arm, but yesterday the Defense was like a walk through scrimmage

having said that, Presby is on the map

[JacksFan40]

I love the coach, the QB throws a very nice football and has a big arm, but yesterday the Defense was like a walk through scrimmage

having said that, Presby is on the map
The QB is a Michigan transfer so he’s definitely talented. That defense has me worried though. You don’t give up 43 points to a bad NAIA team and expect to compete in D1, even if it is the PFL. Teams like San Diego and Davidson will destroy them if they don’t fix it.

[Libertine]

The QB is a Michigan transfer so he’s definitely talented. That defense has me worried though. You don’t give up 43 points to a bad NAIA team and expect to compete in D1, even if it is the PFL. Teams like San Diego and Davidson will destroy them if they don’t fix it.

That's exactly what I'm saying. They're going to be in a track meet every week which is completely the other end of the spectrum from where they've been the last ten years.

[mvemjsunpx]

The QB is a Michigan transfer so he’s definitely talented. That defense has me worried though. You don’t give up 43 points to a bad NAIA team and expect to compete in D1, even if it is the PFL. Teams like San Diego and Davidson will destroy them if they don’t fix it.

The 43 points are misleading, at least in terms of defense. Presby only gave up 315 yards and 4.6 ypp. The real explanation for St. Andrews's 43 points was that Kevin Kelley onside kicks every single time.

[Reign of Terrier]

Yeah, that's the thing^^^.

Statistics aren't the story of a football game, they help *tell the story.* The cost/benefit calculus the PC coach is accepting is "my defense will give up more points and I will give the other team good field position, so long as increase the probability of my offense keeping the ball."

So, PC will probably give up the most points per yards given up probably NCAA history this year. The other team will get the ball in favorable field position more times than not, I would imagine.

[MTfan4life]

Impressively enough, Presbyterian faces an even worse team this next week.

Also, I always say this in college basketball, but you shouldn't be able to break "NCAA" records while playing games against drastically lower divisions. It demeans the record in the first place.

[Libertine]

The 43 points are misleading, at least in terms of defense. Presby only gave up 315 yards and 4.6 ypp. The real explanation for St. Andrews's 43 points was that Kevin Kelley onside kicks every single time.
Points aren't misleading; other stats can mislead but points are everything. PC gave up 43 points to a mediocre-at-best NAIA school that fumbled the ball away three times and turned it over on downs twice more. Sure, the constant onside kicking certainly helped St. Andrews but -- if we're looking at the stats -- Presby still gave up 315 yards to a team that was only driving half the field, suggesting that number would be significantly higher if they had farther had to go.

One more note: the score of this game would have been even higher had PC not turned the ball over on downs at the St. Andrews 4-yard line late in the 4th quarter. These guys may hit a hundred at Valpo in November.

[Libertine]

Impressively enough, Presbyterian faces an even worse team this next week.

Also, I always say this in college basketball, but you shouldn't be able to break "NCAA" records while playing games against drastically lower divisions. It demeans the record in the first place.

Yeah, Fort Lauderdale isn't exactly Bishop Sycamore but the school has less than 200 total students and the entire campus is 11,000 square feet. The Eagles' football program is in its first year of existence and their first two games were cancelled.

EDIT: I doubt that Fort Lauderdale @ PC will actually be played. UFtL shut down games, practices AND workouts for 14 days on August 26 due to a COVID spike in their program. That would mean that they'll come back on Thursday, September 9th, have one practice and maybe lift twice before cramming into a bus the next day to drive ten hours north to play a D1 opponent. By any standard of safety, that would be ludicrous. I would guess that PC gets an extra open date to prep for Campbell (who looks legit in the Big South this year).

[Reign of Terrier]

Points aren't misleading; other stats can mislead but points are everything. PC gave up 43 points to a mediocre-at-best NAIA school that fumbled the ball away three times and turned it over on downs twice more. Sure, the constant onside kicking certainly helped St. Andrews but -- if we're looking at the stats -- Presby still gave up 315 yards to a team that was only driving half the field, suggesting that number would be significantly higher if they had farther had to go.

One more note: the score of this game would have been even higher had PC not turned the ball over on downs at the St. Andrews 4-yard line late in the 4th quarter. These guys may hit a hundred at Valpo in November.

I'm going to look more at the stats now, but even then (and running the risk of getting more pedantic!), I think you have to look at stats even closer. Yeah, they had 300 yards, but how many possessions did they have? If you have, say 15 possessions and only have 300 yards of offense, some of which is on a short field, it's mixed results.

Either way, I think stats are going to be misleading with PC going forward.

[Reign of Terrier]

So I went back and checked: 11 of the 14 possessions St. Andrews had started in PC territory. Six of them were touchdowns, two were punts, there were turnovers (including on downs) Only one started inside the 40 yard line. A good philosophical question is "what would good defense look like under those constraints." I don't have a good answer for it, but it's a good conversation.

St. Andrews' last three possessions, which were their last three of the game, were inside their own territory and only accounted for 15 yards. So they had about 300 yards on 11 drives, with an expected value of ~450 or so yards being what you would expect if PC's defense let them score touchdowns on every possession. I couldn't tell you what the EV of yardage of the average baseline FCS team, but I would guess that's at least below average. In terms of execution, it's a slight loss: if you're PC's coach you want your defense to win more than 50% of the time (5 of 11 is less than that), and that should be good enough to win if everything else is going well.

Because I'm weird stats person, I can tell you from a couple years ago when I pedantically combed through teams scoring EV (i.e how many times you'd expect them to score, given the amount of the possessions they had), the best offenses (including NDSU) only score about 55% of the time, while on defense, the best ones don't allow points 70-85% of the time. In PC's case, their defensive stop rate was about 44% of the time in their own territory and 55% overall.

On offense, PC's scoring rate was 75% (12 of 15 possessions), which is really good, but obviously not what you'd expect sustainably against comparable competition. The good news for the offense is that, 2 of those 3 failure drives were the results of fumbles, not interceptions or turning over on down.

So, my view of this game (I'm watching it now) is that PC's offense looks pretty good, at least from the execution standpoint, which is all you can ask for. Defense didn't look great, but if it's gets marginally better (winning 1-3 more drives per game), I think PC could win the pioneer.

[caribbeanhen]

I'm going to look more at the stats now, but even then (and running the risk of getting more pedantic!), I think you have to look at stats even closer. Yeah, they had 300 yards, but how many possessions did they have? If you have, say 15 possessions and only have 300 yards of offense, some of which is on a short field, it's mixed results.

Either way, I think stats are going to be misleading with PC going forward.

just watch the game

[Reign of Terrier]

just watch the game

Why would I willingly watch a PC game?

[mvemjsunpx]

Yeah, that's the thing^^^.

Statistics aren't the story of a football game, they help *tell the story.* The cost/benefit calculus the PC coach is accepting is "my defense will give up more points and I will give the other team good field position, so long as increase the probability of my offense keeping the ball."

So, PC will probably give up the most points per yards given up probably NCAA history this year. The other team will get the ball in favorable field position more times than not, I would imagine.

This philosophy is basically identical to the Westhead System in basketball. Still… onside kicks are so low percentage that I'm skeptical the analytics like that aspect of Kelley's approach.

[Reign of Terrier]

This philosophy is basically identical to the Westhead System in basketball. Still… onside kicks are so low percentage that I'm skeptical the analytics like that aspect of Kelley's approach.

I don't think it's just the success of the onside kick, so much as it is the probability of scoring when the other team gets the ball at the 50 compared to the 20 *combined with* the onside kick data and the probability of maintaining possession with that.

[Libertine]

I don't think it's just the success of the onside kick, so much as it is the probability of scoring when the other team gets the ball at the 50 compared to the 20 *combined with* the onside kick data and the probability of maintaining possession with that.

The onside kick is also significantly more advantageous at the high school and small college level where kicking games are more suspect. Even if the opposing team recovers, they teams are more likely to reach 4th down in "no man's land" where they have to either go for it, attempt a long-ish field goal or kick a ridiculously short punt. Most won't punt and, lacking a solid kicker, will probably go for it on 4th down which, if you stop them, your offense still takes over in decent field position with less time having been taken off the clock.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, with all of the above in mind, I think it's possible that this was a brilliant hire by PC. This is only one game, but this could turn PC into a competitor in the pioneer. At the very least it will make for entertaining football.

[JacksFan40]

This philosophy is basically identical to the Westhead System in basketball. Still… onside kicks are so low percentage that I'm skeptical the analytics like that aspect of Kelley's approach.
He did it as a high school coach and won quite a few state titles. Thing is that his HS players were just flat out better than the other teams, PC doesn’t have that same advantage in the PFL. I imagine most PC games this year will be lopsided, win or lose. They can either pour on the points or get scored on a bunch by giving a good team great field position.

[mvemjsunpx]

So, with all of the above in mind, I think it's possible that this was a brilliant hire by PC. This is only one game, but this could turn PC into a competitor in the pioneer. At the very least it will make for entertaining football.

Yeah. The Pioneer could turn itself into the "Basketball on Turf" conference, what with Kevin Kelley and the crazy numbers Davidson was putting up in their first couple years running the option.

[clenz]

I'm as anti-punting and kicking field goals as anyone. Largely because I've studied the reasons/numbers behind guys like this and their methods.

I can't get my head around it as strongly as he does, but the idea makes sense to me.

Having said that, doing this against NAIA is one thing. It will probably work to a decent extent in the PFL. It will get him absolutely destroyed against teams with more talent than he has.

[Libertine]

So, with all of the above in mind, I think it's possible that this was a brilliant hire by PC. This is only one game, but this could turn PC into a competitor in the pioneer. At the very least it will make for entertaining football.

Based on experience and history, I don't think that anyone in the Presby admin above the AD's office really cares all that much about actually winning at football. Putting butts in the seats, however, is something they know that they desperately need and -- you're right -- after one game, it looks like Kelley may be the perfect solution to that.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm as anti-punting and kicking field goals as anyone. Largely because I've studied the reasons/numbers behind guys like this and their methods.

I can't get my head around it as strongly as he does, but the idea makes sense to me.

Having said that, doing this against NAIA is one thing. It will probably work to a decent extent in the PFL. It will get him absolutely destroyed against teams with more talent than he has.

I'm rooting for him because Clinton is only like 40 miles from Spartanburg and I would love to see Wofford put up big numbers on a thanksgiving weekend one year.

[mvemjsunpx]

I'm rooting for him because Clinton is only like 40 miles from Spartanburg and I would love to see Wofford put up big numbers on a thanksgiving weekend one year.

Kevin Kelley in the playoffs on Thanksgiving weekend… will we have a game with more points than fans? xrotatehx

[Reign of Terrier]

Kevin Kelley in the playoffs on Thanksgiving weekend… will we have a game with more points than fans? xrotatehx

ouch.

But yes.

[DFW HOYA]

This gimmick hits a brick wall once Presbyterian plays more established teams.

[Libertine]

This gimmick hits a brick wall once Presbyterian plays more established teams.

That's just it. They're in the Pioneer. They don't play those teams.

They've got Austin Peay and Western Carolina on deck in 2022 and JMU in 2024. That's it for "established" teams.

[JacksFan40]

That's just it. They're in the Pioneer. They don't play those teams.

They've got Austin Peay and Western Carolina on deck in 2022 and JMU in 2024. That's it for "established" teams.
San Diego is definitely an established team. Davidson, Dayton, and Drake are all solid PFL teams as well. PC doesn’t exactly have overwhelming talent compared to these teams, so giving the other teams perfect field position because you go for it on 4th and 14 from your own 30 yard line might bite PC in the ass.

[Reign of Terrier]

I dunno, as I already said in this thread, if you look at the results of the top 4 teams or so in the Pioneer, they regularly score 40 or more points. The pioneer doesn't play good defense.

[BEAR]

When he was coaching a private school in Arkansas he was able to get the best talent to come there...thus destroying his opponents. Same thing is happening in Bryant, Arkansas with all their transfers... It's no longer kids from a town playing the kids from another town...it's almost FCS football when you do things like that....but.....

Now he has to recruit to the Blue Hose....hope he has some money stashed aside for NIL agreements.... xlolx

[clenz]

I dunno, as I already said in this thread, if you look at the results of the top 4 teams or so in the Pioneer, they regularly score 40 or more points. The pioneer doesn't play good defense.
San Diego and Dayton score a **** ton on PFL teams because they are better than other PFL teams.

San Diego is clearly the best overall PFL program. It's clear when you start to look at their results against non-PFL teams, especially their playoff performances.

He's going to do well against a number of PFL programs that aren't anything other than D3 programs with a D1 title - like they are. He isn't ever going to have enough talent there to be "the team".

[Reign of Terrier]

I dunno, I feel like people were saying the same thing about Davidson a few years ago, and now they're playing quite well.

[Redbird 4th & short]

This gimmick hits a brick wall once Presbyterian plays more established teams.
This ... it will be interesting to see how he adjusts for his opponent and in game. Because any legit defensive team who knows how to scout/prepare well, will make him regret more than half his aggressove decisions ... which will kill his field position and cost points. If he adjusts for this .. like almost always punt inside your own forty for most part.

On flip side, he will overwhelm many substandard teams and coaching with this aggressive approach ... basically, feast or famine. But it will result in higher scoring games either way.

Bottom line is wins against quality teams. Nobody cares if you put up 80 against Little Sisters of the Poor. Or lose 60 to 38 against a good team .. you still lost by 22.

[DFW HOYA]

He's going to do well against a number of PFL programs that aren't anything other than D3 programs with a D1 title - like they are. He isn't ever going to have enough talent there to be "the team".

Pioneer teams aren't very good but they're far more advanced than D-III teams: budget, coaching, S&C, all of it.

[clenz]

Pioneer teams aren't very good but they're far more advanced than D-III teams: budget, coaching, S&C, all of it.

Let’s take a quick look at the teams that have lost to D3 or NAIA programs the last decade. I don’t think you’ll see many scholarship teams on there.

Or how many scholarship teams have played on the road to D3 or NAIA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[caribbeanhen]

Presby playing Ft Lauderdale this Saturday

anyone know anything about his program besides google

seems like they are trying to put a schedule together on the fly, not sure if NAIA of Div 2

[JacksFan40]

Presby playing Ft Lauderdale this Saturday

anyone know anything about his program besides google

seems like they are trying to put a schedule together on the fly, not sure if NAIA of Div 2
NCCAA actually. They only have like 160 students so yeah… it’s going to get real ugly real quick.

[caribbeanhen]

NCCAA actually. They only have like 160 students so yeah… it’s going to get real ugly real quick.

oh wow, Ill tune the game up just to see what they look like, but Yep the Presby QB might go for 10 more

[Reign of Terrier]

Let’s take a quick look at the teams that have lost to D3 or NAIA programs the last decade. I don’t think you’ll see many scholarship teams on there.

Or how many scholarship teams have played on the road to D3 or NAIA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The pioneer league exists literally because these programs are not allowed to be D3 by NCAA rule. This conference wants to commit the resources/benefit from the ROI of a D1 basketball program, but not football. I believe it was Davidson that wanted to be D3 in football but D1 in basketball, and the NCAA wasn't having it, and that's what started it.

That's not to say they don't have good players or that they can put together teams that can win a single playoff game (they obviously can), but the only real recruiting advantage they have over D3 is that they play division I.

[FUBeAR]

The pioneer league exists literally because these programs are not allowed to be D3 by NCAA rule. This conference wants to commit the resources/benefit from the ROI of a D1 basketball program, but not football. I believe it was Davidson that wanted to be D3 in football but D1 in basketball, and the NCAA wasn't having it, and that's what started it.

That's not to say they don't have good players or that they can put together teams that can win a single playoff game (they obviously can), but the only real recruiting advantage they have over D3 is that they play division I.*Dayton

[Libertine]

Presby playing Ft Lauderdale this Saturday

anyone know anything about his program besides google

seems like they are trying to put a schedule together on the fly, not sure if NAIA of Div 2

They're in their first year of existence and have yet to play a game after their first two games were cancelled due to COVID spike in their program. In fact, I really doubt this game is played since UFtL shut down all practices and workouts for 14 days on 8/26 which would have ended today. I can't imagine they'll go from not practicing or working out for two weeks to getting on a 10-hour bus trip to go play a D1 opponent within the span of a single day. That just has bad idea written all over it.

[acbearkat]

They're in their first year of existence and have yet to play a game after their first two games were cancelled due to COVID spike in their program. In fact, I really doubt this game is played since UFtL shut down all practices and workouts for 14 days on 8/26 which would have ended today. I can't imagine they'll go from not practicing or working out for two weeks to getting on a 10-hour bus trip to go play a D1 opponent within the span of a single day. That just has bad idea written all over it.

That’s essentially what Baylor did last year playing Texas.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Libertine]

but the only real recruiting advantage they have over D3 is that they play division I.

PFL teams get NCAA March Madness money and D3 teams don't, which is a significant resource advantage over the lower division since they can provide more and better resources and perks to players.

[caribbeanhen]

They're in their first year of existence and have yet to play a game after their first two games were cancelled due to COVID spike in their program. In fact, I really doubt this game is played since UFtL shut down all practices and workouts for 14 days on 8/26 which would have ended today. I can't imagine they'll go from not practicing or working out for two weeks to getting on a 10-hour bus trip to go play a D1 opponent within the span of a single day. That just has bad idea written all over it.

thanks for the data, and no doubt that is a long haul up 95 just to get out of the state of Florida

and miraculously if this game actually gets played I will be even more curious now

[JacksFan40]

They're in their first year of existence and have yet to play a game after their first two games were cancelled due to COVID spike in their program. In fact, I really doubt this game is played since UFtL shut down all practices and workouts for 14 days on 8/26 which would have ended today. I can't imagine they'll go from not practicing or working out for two weeks to getting on a 10-hour bus trip to go play a D1 opponent within the span of a single day. That just has bad idea written all over it.
It’s almost Friday so I’d think they’d of cancelled by now if they were going to.

[ElCid]

So curiosity got the best if me and just had to watch this game. Watch most of first half before bed. Lots of gimmicks. Not just the on sides kicks and no punting and two point conversions. It may work against. DivII school but not sure against evenly matched or better competition. Just depends, as always. But two things are certain. One, he got a lot of real game time experience with all of it. Does he dial it back when appropriate? I bet he does. Two, it might very well get folks back in the stands. It was exciting at times. "But it's new, it's new, the public is going to love it!"

[walliver]

A high school coach tried this at Berkley High School in South Carolina a few years ago, and only lasted half a season.

This type of play may get fans in the stands initially, but after a blowout loss or two, the stands will be empty.

If PC plays an option team this year, their defense will be worn out by halftime.

[clenz]

A high school coach tried this at Berkley High School in South Carolina a few years ago, and only lasted half a season.

This type of play may get fans in the stands initially, but after a blowout loss or two, the stands will be empty.

If PC plays an option team this year, their defense will be worn out by halftime.
If he gave up that quickly he was never committed to running it in the first place

To do this kind of system you have to 1000000% commit to it and do so for at least 5 years. You can't take a program that has run on traditional systems and methods and expect the players and fans to figure it out in 3 weeks of fall camp, and 4 regular season games.

[Respect38]

If PC plays an option team this year, their defense will be worn out by halftime.

Ignoring the fact that they just did play an option team, this couldn't be more wrong. What wears down a team is allowing 80 yard death marches by your flexbone opponent, which isn't something that Presbyterian's defense will ever have to face. Longest possession all game by St. Andrews was 13 plays, 5:17 time of possession. Before Presbyterian started kicking off deep, the worst field position St. Andrews started with was the opponent 48. Hard to wear an opposing defense down under those conditions; either they get you off the field quickly, or you score quickly. There won't be any 98 yard, 13 minute drives here.

Presbyterian's offense is built to try and steal possession every opportunity given. Punt? Giving up possession. Kickoff deep? Giving up possession. Just don't do either thing, and you maximize the time the offense spends on the field... aka minimize the time the defense spends on the field.

So if system doesn't work, it certainly isn't because "their defense will get worn out", since the fitness of the defense is one of the perks of the system.


Points aren't misleading; other stats can mislead but points are everything. PC gave up 43 points to a mediocre-at-best NAIA school that fumbled the ball away three times and turned it over on downs twice more. Sure, the constant onside kicking certainly helped St. Andrews but -- if we're looking at the stats -- Presby still gave up 315 yards to a team that was only driving half the field, suggesting that number would be significantly higher if they had farther had to go.

If you're going to take this anti-context position, you have to realize it bites both ways! After all, even against NAIA defenses, you rarely ever see teams put up 55 points by halftime.

And so if we're going to be anti-context, we must say that this Presbyterian team is tremendously improved from 2 falls ago when they scored fewer points than their halftime score here, in the entire 60 minutes against St. Andrews. But back to reality, contextualizing the result means that we don't know that for sure. Could be true, could be false.

Context is never inappropriate. Their defense is not as bad as "43 points", but their offense is not a good at "84 points" either.

One easy way to contextualize the result is to pay attention to yards per play rather than yards per game. As plays are the building blocks of football, you can hardly go wrong looking at performance on a per-play basis. And it doesn't even require putting trust in an "advanced stat"! [advanced stats are still better, though, because yards per play does not contextualize that some yards are worth more than other yards, situationally. Would rather get 3 yards on 4th & 2 than 4 yards on 2nd & 10!]

For Presbyterian's defense: in their 2019 matchup, St. Andrews averaged 4.8 yards per play. In their 2021 matchup, St. Andrew averaged 4.6 yards per play. Presbyterian's defense played just as well as last time.

For Presbyterian's offense: in their 2019 matchup, Presbyterian averaged 7.4 yards per play. In their 2021 matchup, Prebysterian averaged 8.7 yards per play. Notable improvement, offensively.

And yes, points are everything. But a caveat: point margins are everything. Both in "rebuttals" of the Grinnell system in basketball and the Pulaski system in football, attention is paid purely to the impact it does to the defense, with no consideration to whether it makes the offense better by a larger amount anyway. I suppose this is because people are looking for angles to debunk the system, rather than making a good faith attempt to understand it. The fact is, most football coaches are playing the game wrong if they're trying to win as many games as possible [but that's the problem; they aren't trying to win games, they're trying to keep their job first, win games second; blame for that is on the incompetence of athletic directors, not purely on coaches] and while Pulaski's system may not be "the right" approach exactly, it's closer to it than most coaches' approach.

[JacksFan40]

So curiosity got the best if me and just had to watch this game. Watch most of first half before bed. Lots of gimmicks. Not just the on sides kicks and no punting and two point conversions. It may work against. DivII school but not sure against evenly matched or better competition. Just depends, as always. But two things are certain. One, he got a lot of real game time experience with all of it. Does he dial it back when appropriate? I bet he does. Two, it might very well get folks back in the stands. It was exciting at times. "But it's new, it's new, the public is going to love it!"
PC plays Campbell next week so that’ll be the first test for this system. Obviously Campbell isn’t a good team, but PC will now be going up against a scholarship FCS team instead of a bad NAIA team.

[ElCid]

PC plays Campbell next week so that’ll be the first test for this system. Obviously Campbell isn’t a good team, but PC will now be going up against a scholarship FCS team instead of a bad NAIA team.

I was thinking the same. However, I think you will be surprised at Campbell. I think they are way better than most people think they are. They are improving rapidly. Not playoff caliber yet obviously, but not pushovers either. I'm pretty sure they will demolish PC. Unless this scheme of PCs has some hidden benefits.

[caribbeanhen]

I was thinking the same. However, I think you will be surprised at Campbell. I think they are way better than most people think they are. They are improving rapidly. Not playoff caliber yet obviously, but not pushovers either. I'm pretty sure they will demolish PC. Unless this scheme of PCs has some hidden benefits.

I agree Campbell is showing some signs of life but not sure if they will demolish anyone

[Reign of Terrier]

PC plays Campbell next week so that’ll be the first test for this system. Obviously Campbell isn’t a good team, but PC will now be going up against a scholarship FCS team instead of a bad NAIA team.

Campbell is just recently a fully scholarshipped football team. Like lots of teams in the FCS, especially down south (or just the Big South?), they don't look like they did 5 or so years ago. They may not have the big win or the playoff victory to show for it, but I don't think they're a pushover either. I'm reminded of how well they played Kennesaw State in 2019. They could have won that game.

Campbell-PC should be a good game!

[caribbeanhen]

Just had a vision the Ft Lauderdale team bus was taking the red eye express up I 95, pulled off in Jacksonville to pick up a half dozen players at the Waffle House

[ElCid]

I agree Campbell is showing some signs of life but not sure if they will demolish anyone

Halftime
Campbell 49
PC 0

I kind of figured PC would fold up when they faced anyone semi good. Not sure it really demonstrates anything about Campbell though.

[Libertine]

Despite the 72-0 final score, this game still doesn't tell us much about either PC or Campbell. Discounting the four drives where they failed to convert on 4th down -- or counting them, depending on your perspective --, Presby turned the ball over on every single possession. Seven interceptions, three fumbles and a safety.

Campbell can't possibly be so consistently dominant on defense. Presby can't possibly be so consistently inept on the road.

[Reign of Terrier]

That is amazing. Iconic.

[JacksFan40]

Despite the 72-0 final score, this game still doesn't tell us much about either PC or Campbell. Discounting the four drives where they failed to convert on 4th down -- or counting them, depending on your perspective --, Presby turned the ball over on every single possession. Seven interceptions, three fumbles and a safety.

Campbell can't possibly be so consistently dominant on defense. Presby can't possibly be so consistently inept on the road.
It did show that PC’s strategy only works against lesser teams. When they play teams who are on par or better they will get steamrolled like today. I don’t know how good Campbell is this year, but in no way should you lose 72-0 against them.

[MTfan4life]

Every sports news station in the country was talking about Presbyterian's new coach with their "record setting" week 1 win over a high school team. I wonder if they'll make sure to point out this result against a previously winless team?

[apaladin]

Every sports news station in the country was talking about Presbyterian's new coach with their "record setting" week 1 win over a high school team. I wonder if they'll make sure to point out this result against a previously winless team?

PC is about 35 miles from Greenville. The local TV stations were all over PC which they never were the first 2 weeks with highlights etc. Tonight not a word, not even the score. To answer your question no one will mention tonights game. Of course in the Greenville area its all about Clemson. .

[clenz]

I'm as anti-punting and kicking field goals as anyone. Largely because I've studied the reasons/numbers behind guys like this and their methods.

I can't get my head around it as strongly as he does, but the idea makes sense to me.

Having said that, doing this against NAIA is one thing. It will probably work to a decent extent in the PFL. It will get him absolutely destroyed against teams with more talent than he has.
Not to toot my own horn but.....

https://media1.giphy.com/media/iXPppIJaioe9W/giphy.webp?cid=ecf05e47wz0nmyhwxjt1in7c1nxkdyfr3ow vd50tiiwmafit&rid=giphy.webp&ct=g

[Libertine]

Here's a decent article with the worst possible title written in the aftermath of the Campbell game that kind of provides some perspective on his whole philosophy.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kevin-kelley-could-punted-life-140807318.html

[Preferred Walk-On]

Here's a decent article with the worst possible title written in the aftermath of the Campbell game that kind of provides some perspective on his whole philosophy.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kevin-kelley-could-punted-life-140807318.html

First, I am not a hater, I am a realist. Coach Kelley's approach is intriguing, and until enough data is accumulated, one cannot say for sure that it cannot work (however, last week's data point does not help support the argument).

Second, this article points out that this worked very well in HIGH SCHOOL football (repeated too many times to count) in Arkansas (at the third class level in that state; not the 32 largest schools, but the next 32 largest schools - full disclosure, I had to look this up).

Third, the article actually uses Coach Belichick to provide support for Coach Kelley; however, I don't really believe that Belichick believes in what Little Kelley claims he said. I'll be interested to see when Bill decides to use this approach, I mean "Football's football", right?


He’d won so often that he’d earned the admiration of Bill Belichick, whom Kelley and his son counted as a friend. “He told me and my dad, we were talking to him ... he said, ‘Football’s football,’” said Zack Kelley, who’s on his father’s coaching staff. “It’s going to work. It doesn’t matter if it’s high school, college, NFL -- he said ‘Football’s football and a good coach is going to make it happen.’”


Here's to more data points in the next 9 weeks. xdrunkyx

[kdinva]

.....I kind of figured PC would fold up when they faced anyone semi good. Not sure it really demonstrates anything about Campbell though.

If the Admin at Campbell support scholly football the way they did wrestling, Campbell could be in the mix for the Big South's Auto-bid by 2024, if not '23....

[JacksFan40]

PC lost 63-43 to Dayton on Saturday which is an improvement from 72-0. They actually got out to a quick lead but Dayton rolled them the rest of the way.
Dayton is probably Top 3 PFL this year, so at least PC competed for a bit. Next up is Morehead State, let’s see if they can beat a PFL bottom feeder.

[caribbeanhen]

PC lost 63-43 to Dayton on Saturday which is an improvement from 72-0. They actually got out to a quick lead but Dayton rolled them the rest of the way.
Dayton is probably Top 3 PFL this year, so at least PC competed for a bit. Next up is Morehead State, let’s see if they can beat a PFL bottom feeder.


The 2 teams that Presby opened up against are so bad

that Fort Lauderdale team might’ve thrown in the towel on the season