TT's Playoff Prognostications 4/12

[TexasTerror]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: WEBER STATE
Big South: MONMOUTH
Colonial: James Madison
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: SACRED HEART
Ohio Valley: JACKSONVILLE STATE
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Davidson
SoCon: Virginia Military Institute (VMI)
Southland: SAM HOUSTON STATE


AT-LARGES (6)
Delaware
Eastern Washington
North Dakota
Richmond
Southeastern Louisiana
South Dakota State


SEEDS
1. North Dakota State
2. James Madison
3. Sam Houston State
4. Weber State


BRACKET


Holy Cross @ (1) North Dakota State
Monmouth @ Delaware


Davidson @ (4) Weber State
Richmond @ North Dakota


VMI @ (2) James Madison
Southeastern Louisiana @ Jacksonville State


Sacred Heart @ (3) Sam Houston State
Eastern Washington @ South Dakota State

[katss07]

I presume this bracket is based on "if the season ended today"? Otherwise, I don't see how Richmond gets in as I think a loss this weekend bumps them out of the bracket. A UR win would surly knock the Dukes off the top 4 seed line.

Highly doubt the committee leaves Missouri State home in favor of Southeastern. Right or wrong, we know the biases held towards the MVFC, and honestly the Bears are more than worthy imo. Missouri State has the FOURTH toughest schedule in the nation, per Massey. UNI and SIU are high quality wins for them, and USD is no slouch either. Maybe if SELA blows out the Salukis this weekend there's a convo to be had, but I'd put the Bears in.

UIW beating SHSU is the Southland's best shot at an at large bid. They've got to h2h with Southeastern in that case. Only way I could see Lions getting in is if Delaware blows out Villanova, JMU beats Richmond, and the committee feels like they're more deserving than Mercer, UC Davis and Kennesaw State (ie: needs a ton of help).

[Gangtackle11]

You’re assuming Delaware will do something they haven’t done in 8 seasons & once in 14. Good luckxpeacex

[Professor Chaos]

Good work TT, the only thing I'd disagree with is Richmond. If you're projecting as of now I think a team like Missouri St should be in over Richmond. If you're projecting the end of the season that would mean Richmond lost to JMU (since JMU is the CAA auto) and I don't think a 3-1 Richmond (2 wins over Elon and a win over W&M) deserves at at-large.

I see 4 at-large locks in the NDSU/SDSU loser, UND, EWU, and Delaware/JMU (whoever doesn't get the auto although they both could technically get at-large bids). After that the last two are up for grabs. I'd put Southeastern Louisiana and Missouri St in those spots right now but there's still a lot that can change. Basically the bubble will come down to the 3 games involving Richmond, Villanova, and SLU:

Richmond @ JMU
Villanova vs Delaware
Southeastern Louisiana @ SIU


If at least 2 of those 3 win there's no room for anyone else. If at least 2 of those 3 lose it opens up a spot (or spots) for teams like Missouri St, UC Davis, SIU (if they beat SLU), or Mercer. SLU would be ok I think if their game gets cancelled but if either the Richmond or Nova games get cancelled they won't have 4 games in so they'll be out.

[TexasTerror]

The last at-large or two is a complete cluster.

I agree with Professor Chaos - "DSU/SDSU loser, UND, EWU, and Delaware/JMU (whoever doesn't get the auto)"

I went with several things - one, the at-large pool is extremely small regardless of what anyone says. Secondly, I did not think we would see another Colonial or Missouri Valley beyond the three each I gave them, so I felt that I had to go a different direction even if I thought a team like Missouri State could get into the field.

Very challenging with not a true sample size to weigh and very limited decent options.

Southern Illinois v Southeastern Louisiana could really rock the boat particularly if one team just takes it to the other.

Always happy to get some conversation going...

[Professor Chaos]

I presume this bracket is based on "if the season ended today"? Otherwise, I don't see how Richmond gets in as I think a loss this weekend bumps them out of the bracket. A UR win would surly knock the Dukes off the top 4 seed line.

Highly doubt the committee leaves Missouri State home in favor of Southeastern. Right or wrong, we know the biases held towards the MVFC, and honestly the Bears are more than worthy imo. Missouri State has the FOURTH toughest schedule in the nation, per Massey. UNI and SIU are high quality wins for them, and USD is no slouch either. Maybe if SELA blows out the Salukis this weekend there's a convo to be had, but I'd put the Bears in.

UIW beating SHSU is the Southland's best shot at an at large bid. They've got to h2h with Southeastern in that case. Only way I could see Lions getting in is if Delaware blows out Villanova, JMU beats Richmond, and the committee feels like they're more deserving than Mercer, UC Davis and Kennesaw State (ie: needs a ton of help).
Agree regarding Richmond. Although I don't think you can put Missouri St in over SLU if the Lions beat SIU. Missouri St beat SIU on a last second FG at home so any type of road win over SIU will give SLU the common opponent advantage and give them the edge over Missouri St IMO. Also, I hope the committee puts very little weight in any type of SOS rating system. With the schedules as insulated as they were this spring it's going to make any numerically driven rating system pretty worthless.

[katss07]

Good work TT, the only thing I'd disagree with is Richmond. If you're projecting as of now I think a team like Missouri St should be in over Richmond. If you're projecting the end of the season that would mean Richmond lost to JMU (since JMU is the CAA auto) and I don't think a 3-1 Richmond (2 wins over Elon and a win over W&M) deserves at at-large.

I see 4 at-large locks in the NDSU/SDSU loser, UND, EWU, and Delaware/JMU (whoever doesn't get the auto although they both could technically get at-large bids). After that the last two are up for grabs. I'd put Southeastern Louisiana and Missouri St in those spots right now but there's still a lot that can change. Basically the bubble will come down to the 3 games involving Richmond, Villanova, and SLU:

Richmond @ JMU
Villanova vs Delaware
Southeastern Louisiana @ SIU


If at least 2 of those 3 win there's no room for anyone else. If at least 2 of those 3 lose it opens up a spot (or spots) for teams like Missouri St, UC Davis, SIU (if they beat SLU), or Mercer. SLU would be ok I think if their game gets cancelled but if either the Richmond or Nova games get cancelled they won't have 4 games in so they'll be out.
Is UD a lock? If Richmond beats JMU and the Hens lose to Villanova, does the CAA get four teams in?

[Professor Chaos]

Is UD a lock? If Richmond beats JMU and the Hens lose to Villanova, does the CAA get four teams in?
I think so. I'd say they're more deserving with a loss this weekend than JMU would be with a loss this weekend.

I think if Richmond and Villanova both win the CAA gets 4 into the playoffs.

[atthewbon]

Good work TT, the only thing I'd disagree with is Richmond. If you're projecting as of now I think a team like Missouri St should be in over Richmond. If you're projecting the end of the season that would mean Richmond lost to JMU (since JMU is the CAA auto) and I don't think a 3-1 Richmond (2 wins over Elon and a win over W&M) deserves at at-large.

I see 4 at-large locks in the NDSU/SDSU loser, UND, EWU, and Delaware/JMU (whoever doesn't get the auto although they both could technically get at-large bids). After that the last two are up for grabs. I'd put Southeastern Louisiana and Missouri St in those spots right now but there's still a lot that can change. Basically the bubble will come down to the 3 games involving Richmond, Villanova, and SLU:

Richmond @ JMU
Villanova vs Delaware
Southeastern Louisiana @ SIU


If at least 2 of those 3 win there's no room for anyone else. If at least 2 of those 3 lose it opens up a spot (or spots) for teams like Missouri St, UC Davis, SIU (if they beat SLU), or Mercer. SLU would be ok I think if their game gets cancelled but if either the Richmond or Nova games get cancelled they won't have 4 games in so they'll be out.

I agree that with a Richmond loss they won’t deserve it. But if Richmond loses a close game and Delaware beats Villanova I could see the committee put Richmond in over a 4th mvfc team, 2nd southern/Southland team.

[Professor Chaos]

Incarnate Word could still throw a monkey wrench into things too if they beat Sam Houston. Say Richmond and Villanova both lose and Incarnate Word and Southeastern Louisiana both win. Does the Southland get 3 in? Very possible in that scenario although it playing out that way is improbable.

[atthewbon]

Another team to keep an eye on is Mercer if they win and VMI loses they get the auto but if they win and vmi wins they would be 6-2 in the spring. Still probably need some luck to get an at-large but it’s possible.


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[atthewbon]

Incarnate Word could still make a mess of things too if they beat Sam Houston. Say Richmond and Villanova both lose and Incarnate Word and Southeastern Louisiana both win. Does the Southland get 3 in? Very possible in that scenario although it playing out that way is improbable.

That would be very interesting. I doubt it happens bc UIW’s defense is horrible but the at-larges in that scenario would probably be:
NDSU/SDSU loser
UND
JMU/Delaware
EWU
SELA
UIW

I could see Richmond and Mercer as two other possible teams in this scenario replacing one of or both of the Southland at-larges

[HensRock]

You’re assuming Delaware will do something they haven’t done in 8 seasons & once in 14. Good luckxpeacex

By giving JMU the auto bid, I'd say he's assuming just the opposite.

[Preferred Walk-On]

The last at-large or two is a complete cluster.

I agree with Professor Chaos - "DSU/SDSU loser, UND, EWU, and Delaware/JMU (whoever doesn't get the auto)"

I went with several things - one, the at-large pool is extremely small regardless of what anyone says. Secondly, I did not think we would see another Colonial or Missouri Valley beyond the three each I gave them, so I felt that I had to go a different direction even if I thought a team like Missouri State could get into the field.

Very challenging with not a true sample size to weigh and very limited decent options.

Southern Illinois v Southeastern Louisiana could really rock the boat particularly if one team just takes it to the other.

Always happy to get some conversation going...

It seems like this spring is validating a playoff system with 24 teams (not 16). Food for thought. And if you want to argue that this spring is "weird", no worries. There are three more AQ in the fall and 40+ more teams playing then. If you want to argue that there is no need for 24 teams with the disparity in the FCS, then this spring should point out to you that there will be a time(s) where there IS more parity.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Another team to keep an eye on is Mercer if they win and VMI loses they get the auto but if they win and vmi wins they would be 6-2 in the spring. Still probably need some luck to get an at-large but it’s possible.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I keep missing where ETSU falls in this. They have two losses, but have beaten VMI. I am probably missing something obvious, but if someone could explain why they are not in the conversation for the auto-bid, I would appreciate it. ETSU>VMI>Mercer>ETSU (circular H2H results).

[atthewbon]

I keep missing where ETSU falls in this. They have two losses, but have beaten VMI. I am probably missing something obvious, but if someone could explain why they are not in the conversation for the auto-bid, I would appreciate it. ETSU>VMI>Mercer>ETSU (circular H2H results).

Mercer is 5-2 in conference, ETSU is 4-2, and VMI is 5-1. ETSU doesn’t have any games left. If Mercer wins and VMI loses it looks like Mercer 6-2, VMI 5-2, and ETSU 4-2. I believe any other scenario VMI gets the auto.

[MSUDuo]

Last in or first out.

[nodak651]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)

Richmond @ North Dakota



Ooofta. Not Richmond again!

[Preferred Walk-On]

Mercer is 5-2 in conference, ETSU is 4-2, and VMI is 5-1. ETSU doesn’t have any games left. If Mercer wins and VMI loses it looks like Mercer 6-2, VMI 5-2, and ETSU 4-2. I believe any other scenario VMI gets the auto.

So it essentially win % (or in this case, more number of wins). Does this take into account that the reason that VMI and ETSU have less wins is because of Chattanooga (and in ETSU's case, Wofford)? In other words, it is not their fault that games were cancelled on them, but Mercer managed to play their slate (unless Samford goes away). There has got to be another deciding factor, doesn't there?

[FUBeAR]

So it essentially win % (or in this case, more number of wins). Does this take into account that the reason that VMI and ETSU have less wins is because of Chattanooga (and in ETSU's case, Wofford)? In other words, it is not their fault that games were cancelled on them, but Mercer managed to play their slate (unless Samford goes away). There has got to be another deciding factor, doesn't there?
Nope - SoCon made (questionable) decision to call the 4 games that ChattaQuitta cancelled & the 3 games that Wof-Fraud cancelled “No-Contests” - no wins / no losses - just as if they were never scheduled.

[Gangtackle11]

By giving JMU the auto bid, I'd say he's assuming just the opposite.

Well putting Delaware in & not Nova if/after losing to Nova on Saturday in this example suggests to me it’s not the opposite, but it’s not worth spending anymore time on it. Saturday will be here soon enough. xpeacex

[OhioHen]

Something to consider when making prognostications - the games won't necessarily be hosted by a team participating in the game.

Could the committee mix up some of the regionalization by having a game at a neutral site where both teams could bus to the game rather than somebody getting on a plane?

For instance, Monmouth and Sacred Heart have both already clinched playoff spots. Neither is among the 14 pre-selected sites. The committee could pair them up and have them play at either Villanova or Delaware (two sites on the list of pre-selected sites). Or Richmond-VMI could happen at JMU's Bridgeforth Stadium if they both make the field.

[MVFCBeat]

Here is what I have for my playoff projections as of now.

https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post/fcs-football-playoff-picture-2

TL;DR

-Big Sky (2): Weber State, Eastern Washington (Also Considered: UC Davis)
-Big South (1): Monmouth (Also Considered: Kennesaw State)
-CAA (2): James Madison, Delaware, (Also Considered: Richmond, Villanova)
-MVFC (3): NDSU, SDSU, North Dakota (Also Considered: Missouri State, SIU)
-Northeast (1): Sacred Heart
-Ohio Valley (1): Jacksonville State (Also Considered: Murray State)
-Patriot League (1): Bucknell (Also Considered: Holy Cross)
-Pioneer League (1): Davidson (Also Considered: San Diego)
-Southern (2): VMI, Mercer (Also Considered: ETSU)
-Southland (2): Sam Houston State, SE Louisiana (Also Considered: UIW)

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/PFLNews/status/1382804531168354304

Welp...

[OhioHen]

https://twitter.com/PFLNews/status/1382804531168354304

Welp...

And the league has already announced that Davidson gets the autobid to the playoffs.

[OhioHen]

With current known qualifiers and fairly sure at-large from CAA, I'm predicting some pairings to maintain shorter bus rides in the East.

VMI vs. Monmouth (at Villanova)
Sacred Heart at Delaware
Davidson at JMU (rather than VMI at JMU to keep Davidson's trip shorter)

OR

Sacred Heart vs. Monmouth (at Villanova)
VMI at Delaware
Davidson at JMU

[NY Crusader 2010]

With current known qualifiers and fairly sure at-large from CAA, I'm predicting some pairings to maintain shorter bus rides in the East.

VMI vs. Monmouth (at Villanova)
Sacred Heart at Delaware
Davidson at JMU (rather than VMI at JMU to keep Davidson's trip shorter)

OR

Sacred Heart vs. Monmouth (at Villanova)
VMI at Delaware
Davidson at JMU

In this scenario, you have Holy Cross being odd man out and making a Round of 16 flight?

[melloware13]

Davidson is 350 miles to Jacksonville State, so I could see one of Sacred Heart/Holy Cross playing Monmouth at Villanova and the other going to Newark, with VMI making the short trip up 81.

[NY Crusader 2010]

And Monmouth isn't hosting a game why? Home lax game at same time or something?

[MSUDuo]

Well, every game that MO State needed to go its way did just that.

Going to be on pins and needles for the next 18 hours...

[OhioHen]

In this scenario, you have Holy Cross being odd man out and making a Round of 16 flight?

Completely forgot about PL champion.


Davidson is 350 miles to Jacksonville State, so I could see one of Sacred Heart/Holy Cross playing Monmouth at Villanova and the other going to Newark, with VMI making the short trip up 81.

Adding in Holy Cross, this change makes perfect sense.

[OhioHen]

And Monmouth isn't hosting a game why? Home lax game at same time or something?

Because Monmouth is not one of the 14 pre-selected potential round one game sites.

[OhioHen]

Well, every game that MO State needed to go its way did just that.

Going to be on pins and needles for the next 18 hours...

With both CAA games going your way and SIU winning the only inter-conference matchup to boost the MVFC profile (is that possible), MSU has a legitimate shot as a 4th spot for the league isn't out of the equation. The cancellation of UND-MSU may be what pushes that 4th spot over the top - loser of that game would almost certainly have been left out.

[MSUDuo]

With both CAA games going your way and SIU winning the only inter-conference matchup to boost the MVFC profile (is that possible), MSU has a legitimate shot as a 4th spot for the league isn't out of the equation. The cancellation of UND-MSU may be what pushes that 4th spot over the top - loser of that game would almost certainly have been left out.

And that 5th place Valley team just beat the 2nd place Southland team...

I know we don't want to say 5 from one conference get in but if they are the best available, why not?

[OhioHen]

And that 5th place Valley team just beat the 2nd place Southland team...

I know we don't want to say 5 from one conference get in but if they are the best available, why not?

Six at-large bids available - one goes to CAA, one to Big Sky, two to MVFC - that's four. Two left - I won't be surprised to see another for the MVFC but expect a second from the Big Sky or one for another conference ahead of the fifth MVFC team.

[HensRock]

I'd say Richmond for one of the two slots left, then maybe Kennesaw?

[Professor Chaos]

I'd say Richmond for one of the two slots left, then maybe Kennesaw?
Man, if Richmond gets in over Missouri St that's quite the slap in the face to the Bears. I think Missouri St is the 5th ar-large in and for that last at-large I'd pick UC Davis but could be Kennesaw, Richmond, Murray St, or SIU (although 5 MVFC teams getting in is almost inconceivable).

[atthewbon]

This is how I see the playoff picture tonight going into selection Sunday

Auto bids:
CAA: Delaware
MVFC: SDSU
Big Sky: Weber st
Southland: SHSU
OVC: Jacksonville st
Big South: Monmouth
Southern: VMI
NEC: Sacared Heart
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Davidson

Guaranteed at-large:
JMU
UND
Eastern Washington
NDSU

The final two at-large will come from these teams:
Missouri st
Richmond
SIU
Murray st
Kennesaw st
UC Davis (I’ve heard they might not be participating but idk about that)
Southern (I doubt it but they are 4-1, idk if they are eligible or even want to play)

I personally think the committee is going to pick Missouri st and Richmond. I’m not sure what UC Davis deal is and I could potentially see Murray st or Kennesaw st in if they want to give a non “power 3” conference a bid. I doubt the MVFC gets 5 teams so I don’t see SIU getting in.

[caribbeanhen]

And that 5th place Valley team just beat the 2nd place Southland team...

I know we don't want to say 5 from one conference get in but if they are the best available, why not?

Yea why not

Paul always looking for a few more Wings

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1383571892712349703

Looks pretty reasonable to me...

[atthewbon]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1383571892712349703

Looks pretty reasonable to me...

Yea I wouldn’t be surprised if this is what it ends up being, maybe a few different matchups.

[HensRock]

Man, if Richmond gets in over Missouri St that's quite the slap in the face to the Bears. I think Missouri St is the 5th ar-large in and for that last at-large I'd pick UC Davis but could be Kennesaw, Richmond, Murray St, or SIU (although 5 MVFC teams getting in is almost inconceivable).

Richmond is 3-1 with only loss to #1 JMU. Admittedly, their 3 wins smell pretty bad though.
Are we going to pretend that MSU's 3 losses in the fall just didn't happen?

I do think UCD has a case.

[melloware13]

Richmond is 3-1 with only loss to #1 JMU. Admittedly, their 3 wins smell pretty bad though.
Are we going to pretend that MSU's 3 losses in the fall just didn't happen?

I do think UCD has a case.
They keep saying records from the fall will be factored in the decisions, mainly was to prop Jacksonville State up but should be equally used against Missouri State also

[Professor Chaos]

Richmond is 3-1 with only loss to #1 JMU. Admittedly, their 3 wins smell pretty bad though.
Are we going to pretend that MSU's 3 losses in the fall just didn't happen?

I do think UCD has a case.
You can pretend the Oklahoma loss didn't happen. But I don't think even the two UCA losses in the fall can hold back MSU that much when you compare what they've done this spring with any other bubble team. SIU beating SLU really helped them I think. Not only did it knock SLU off the bubble but I don't think you can put in SIU before MSU since MSU has the head-to-head win along with two fewer conference losses and 2 more conference wins this spring. SIU did play SDSU and UND whereas MSU did not but still that head-to-head win gives MSU a leg up so I think SIU's performance today pushed MSU up into the field.

[MSUDuo]

No Bowls update

http://www.nobowls.com/index.html

[MSUDuo]

Richmond is 3-1 with only loss to #1 JMU. Admittedly, their 3 wins smell pretty bad though.
Are we going to pretend that MSU's 3 losses in the fall just didn't happen?

I do think UCD has a case.

So, if MO State hadn't played in the fall, they're in, in your eyes?

[Houndawg]

Richmond is 3-1 with only loss to #1 JMU. Admittedly, their 3 wins smell pretty bad though.
Are we going to pretend that MSU's 3 losses in the fall just didn't happen?

I do think UCD has a case.

If they were 3-1 against four ranked opponents it would be one thing but I don't feel they have a playoff-worthy body of work, unlike MSU and SIU

[salukis1993]

Someone is going to have to explain to me how Richmond gets in before SIU. They played half as many games, beat ZERO teams,with a winning record, and 2 of their 3 wins were against a craptastic Elon team. Their resume sucks. Same for Kennisaw and Murray St. ZERO wins vs teams with a winning record.

[Houndawg]

Someone is going to have to explain to me how Richmond gets in before SIU. They played half as many games, beat ZERO teams,with a winning record, and 2 of their 3 wins were against a craptastic Elon team. Their resume sucks. Same for Kennisaw and Murray St. ZERO wins vs teams with a winning record.

All of of SIU's opponents, except YSU, were AGS top 25 teams at the time we played or at the end of the season. Anybody would be happy with a 5-3 record against that schedule.

[NY Crusader 2010]

The skeleton non-conference schedules and disparity in games played make choosing at-large teams a huge headache.

[Daytripper]

The skeleton non-conference schedules and disparity in games played make choosing at-large teams a huge headache.

Game tape will play a huge roll in the at-large determination. The eye test is vital this year. How did a team look, especially late in the season. I think the previous fall schedule will have a minimal influence. I like MSU getting an at-large. As much as I hate it I think the MVFC gets four in: SDSU, NDSU, UND, and either MSU and SIU...but not both.

[melloware13]

One thing to keep in mind is the committee has a history of giving schools with AD's on the committee the benefit of the doubt (like UNH). With that aspect, IF the MVFC gets 3 at large bids expect MSU over SIU. Kennesaw also seems to be a bit of a committee darling so they wouldn't surprise me even if they haven't really earned it.

[caribbeanhen]

One thing to keep in mind is the committee has a history of giving schools with AD's on the committee the benefit of the doubt (like UNH). With that aspect, IF the MVFC gets 3 at large bids expect MSU over SIU. Kennesaw also seems to be a bit of a committee darling so they wouldn't surprise me even if they haven't really earned it.

Yep, I don’t think Barbarasaw should be in, but I will not be surprised if they are

Richmond ? Honestly we don’t know if they are any good or not, 2 wins over Elon....

I dont want to see 5 Valley teams in, But just because I don’t want to see it doesn’t mean that S Illinois isn’t better than several teams that will be in

2/3 of FCS is just pathetic anyway

[HensRock]

So, if MO State hadn't played in the fall, they're in, in your eyes?

Absolutely. There are a lot of FCS teams that I think would be locks to the playoffs if I could remove 3 losses from their schedule. Or even just 2.

[Laker]

Yep, I don’t think Barbarasaw should be in, but I will not be surprised if they are

I did laugh out loud when I read that.

[MSUDuo]

Absolutely. There are a lot of FCS teams that I think would be locks to the playoffs if I could remove 3 losses from their schedule. Or even just 2.

Ha. Good one.

Moot point now