Playoff Prognostications - 4/5

[TexasTerror]

AUTOMATIC BIDS (11)
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Kennesaw State
Colonial: Delaware
MEAC: South Carolina State
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Duquesne
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: Davidson
SoCon: VMI
Southland: Sam Houston State


AT-LARGES (5)
James Madison
North Dakota
Eastern Washington
Richmond
South Dakota State


SEEDS
1. James Madison
2. North Dakota State
3. Sam Houston State
4. North Dakota


BRACKET


Davidson at (1) James Madison
Weber State at South Dakota State


Murray State at (4) North Dakota
South Carolina State @ Kennesaw State


Duquesne at (2) North Dakota State
VMI at Richmond


Eastern Washington @ (3) Sam Houston State
Holy Cross @ Delaware




NOTES
* Seeds - I am going off the FCS committee rankings with JMU, NDSU as 1-2. Presuming NDSU beats South Dakota State at which point SHSU moves to No. 3 and North Dakota to No. 4. North Dakota also holds a win against South Dakota State.


* At-Larges - How do you keep Richmond or James Madison out if undefeated? To appease all, I am putting Eastern Washington in.


* Bracket - I am going to presume the NCAA will "try" to get some bus trips on this one though there's not a lot of options here for bus trips.


* Weber State squeaked past Southern Utah; should defeat Cal Poly. They will get the AQ but do not have them as top seed anymore.


* I am struggling to make sense of the CAA automatic bid. If I am reading it right regarding "Best combined ranking among Divisional teams in points scored and points allowed", it should be Delaware with the AQ


* MEAC - what the hell is this BS? South Carolina State won the first game against Delaware State and presumably can win the second?


* Murray State gets Jacksonville State at home; so going with them. Both teams lost to Austin Peay, which due to losses at Tennessee Tech & Tennessee-Martin will not get the AQ.


* In SoCon, VMI is down to a single game against rival The Citadel. Don't count El Cid out! But VMI wins and gets the AQ per the SoCon folks

[Professor Chaos]

No Eastern Washington??? I'm guessing that means you think they'll lose at home to Idaho this Saturday?

Also, I think if the CAA ends with multiple unbeaten teams they actually take a vote among the ADs in the conference from teams not involved in that tie to award the autobid.

[ETSUfan1]

UTC quit. VMI gets the auto bid if they beat The Citadel although ETSU should still be in the mix if they win at Mercer next week.

[katss07]

No Eastern Washington??? I'm guessing that means you think they'll lose at home to Idaho this Saturday?
Yeah, Edub needs to take the spot of Richmond or VMI on this list imo.

31st SoS per Massey, compared to VMI and UR's 55th and 56th respectively. Not to mention a high quality win against UD Davis (and the ISU win doesn't look too bad fwiw). Eagles have to be in over one of the two, and they will be.

[TheKingpin28]

Either Richmond OR JMU will make it, not both. There is no way you can take both and leave EWU at home if they beat Idaho.

[TexasTerror]

UTC quit. VMI gets the auto bid if they beat The Citadel although ETSU should still be in the mix if they win at Mercer next week.

Thanks for bringing to my attention...

And put Eastern Washington in... again, glad that there's so many critics, but who else is doing this on AGS? #YourWelcome

[atthewbon]

Does Richmond get in being 4-0 with no quality wins (assuming neither JMU game is made up). I think they have a good chance but a 1 loss ETSU or 1 loss team from the CAA North would be justifiably upset imo.

[FUBeAR]

UTC quit. VMI gets the auto bid if they beat The Citadel although ETSU should still be in the mix if they win at Mercer next week....and don’t overlook that Mercer is “in the mix” just as much as ETSU is.

Win over ETSU, at home (Mercer is 3-0 at home this Spring) this week AND win at Samford (a Team that hasn’t beaten Mercer since 2017) and the Bears need that same CIT win over VMI to clinch the Championship & the SoCon AQ Bid.

[atthewbon]

...and don’t overlook that Mercer is “in the mix” just as much as ETSU is.

Win over ETSU, at home (Mercer is 3-0 at home this Spring) this week AND win at Samford (a Team that hasn’t beaten Mercer since 2017) and the Bears need that same CIT win over VMI to clinch the Championship & the SoCon AQ Bid.

Mercer still has a shot at the auto bid but no chance at an at-large while I think ETSU still has a small chance at an at-large.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer still has a shot at the auto bid but no chance at an at-large while I think ETSU still has a small chance at an at-large.
Probably right - if ETSU beats Mercer, @ 5-1 and a win over ranked VMI, they do deserve a look.

Though they won’t get it, a 6-2 Mercer Team with wins over then #9 Chatt, then #21 Furman, and a win over whatever ETSU will be ranked this week, should get a look also. But they won’t. I get that.

[caribbeanhen]

Thanks for bringing to my attention...

And put Eastern Washington in... again, glad that there's so many critics, but who else is doing this on AGS? #YourWelcome

Nice job Tex
I enjoyed reading it
but if you came on AGS looking for a pat on the back you came to the wrong place

You just have to trust me on this

[OhioHen]

Does Richmond get in being 4-0 with no quality wins (assuming neither JMU game is made up). I think they have a good chance but a 1 loss ETSU or 1 loss team from the CAA North would be justifiably upset imo.

Does JMU get in being 4-0 with no quality wins (assuming neither Richmond game is made up)?

[kdinva]

Does JMU get in being 4-0 with no quality wins (assuming neither Richmond game is made up)?

I have heard "no", because CAA bosses said in the Winter teams needed 3 conf. games to be considered. JMU has played only 2 so far....

[atthewbon]

Does JMU get in being 4-0 with no quality wins (assuming neither Richmond game is made up)?

Good point. I think they would at least get an at-large (idk how the caa auto works) because of the name recognition. But their resume isn’t great either.

[Sader87]

Patriot League playoff picture may grow murkier (if that's possible)....whispahhs that Colgate may shutdown this weekend, leaving HC at 2-0.

[kdinva]

Patriot League playoff picture may grow murkier (if that's possible)....whispahhs that Colgate may shutdown this weekend, leaving HC at 2-0.

Colgate has shut down..

https://twitter.com/ColgateFB

The Cross vs. Bucknell for Patriot champ, per Mr. haley.

[kdinva]

MEAC won't participate after all...........won't play enough games. one more at-large slot, now.

Sam Herder (@SamHerderFCS) / Twitter (https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS)

[Professor Chaos]

MEAC won't participate after all...........won't play enough games. one more at-large slot, now.

Sam Herder (@SamHerderFCS) / Twitter (https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjedLeVGcfE

[FUBeAR]

Nice job Tex
I enjoyed reading it
but if you came on AGS looking for a pat on the back you came to the wrong place

You just have to trust me on this
Well... you may get a ‘pat on the back,’ but that hand ‘patting’ you will most likely have a knife in it.

...but...you know what...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8yr_StC3uw

[MVFCBeat]

My playoff projections can be found here: https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post/breaking-down-the-fcs-football-playoff-picture

TL;DNR I have

Big Sky (2): Weber State, Eastern Washington (Also Considered: UC Davis, Idaho)
Big South (1): Monmouth (Also Considered: Kennesaw State)
CAA (3): James Madison, Delaware, Richmond (Also Considered: Villanova)
MVFC (3): NDSU, SDSU, North Dakota (Also Considered: Missouri State, SIU)
Northeast (1): Duquesne (Also Considered: Sacred Heart)
Ohio Valley (1): Jacksonville State (Also Considered: Murray State)
Patriot League (1): Bucknell (Also Considered: Holy Cross)
Pioneer League (1): Davidson
Southern (2): East Tennessee State, VMI
Southland (1): Sam Houston State (Also Considered: UIW, Nicholls State)

[Professor Chaos]

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2021-04-08/division-i-football-committee-announces-championship-host-sites


Due to the health and safety protocols surrounding the pandemic, it was deemed necessary to conduct NCAA championship competition at predetermined sites. Of the 14 selected sites, eight will be chosen to host first-round games. Twelve of the 14 sites will be in contention to host the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds of the championship.

The 14 sites, with host institutions are as follows:

Newark, Delaware – Delaware
Cheney, Washington – Eastern Washington
Jacksonville, Alabama – Jacksonville State
Harrisonburg, Virginia – James Madison
Kennesaw, Georgia – Kennesaw State
Orono, Maine – Maine
Springfield, Missouri – Missouri State
Murray, Kentucky – Murray State
Grand Forks, North Dakota – North Dakota
Fargo, North Dakota – North Dakota State
Huntsville, Texas – Sam Houston
Brookings, South Dakota – South Dakota State
Villanova, Pennsylvania – Villanova
Ogden, Utah – Weber State

This obviously doesn't (or at least shouldn't) have an impact on what teams are selected but of these 14 sites 4 are CAA institutions, 4 are MVFC, 2 are Big Sky, 2 are OVC, 1 is Big South, and 1 is Southland. No hosts sites from the SOCON, NEC, Pioneer, or Patriot League.

[walliver]

I was originally caught off guard by all the northern venues for football playoffs. I am just so used to playoff being in the winter, not spring.

[FUBeAR]

My playoff projections can be found here: https://www.missourivalleybeat.com/post/breaking-down-the-fcs-football-playoff-picture

TL;DNR I have

Big Sky (2): Weber State, Eastern Washington (Also Considered: UC Davis, Idaho)
Big South (1): Monmouth (Also Considered: Kennesaw State)
CAA (3): James Madison, Delaware, Richmond (Also Considered: Villanova)
MVFC (3): NDSU, SDSU, North Dakota (Also Considered: Missouri State, SIU)
Northeast (1): Duquesne (Also Considered: Sacred Heart)
Ohio Valley (1): Jacksonville State (Also Considered: Murray State)
Patriot League (1): Bucknell (Also Considered: Holy Cross)
Pioneer League (1): Davidson
Southern (2): East Tennessee State, VMI
Southland (1): Sam Houston State (Also Considered: UIW, Nicholls State)

“Southern Conference
No one else in the league is seriously threatening for a spot.”


Au contraire, mon frere.

In order to win the SoCon & the SoCon AQ, ETSU & Mercer both need The Citadel to beat VMI on 4/17.

SoCon AQ is based on winning %.

If VMI beats CIT, the Keydets will get the SoCon AQ.
Mercer will not get an At-Large bid, even if they win out & finish 6-2 in the SoCon.
If ETSU wins out, at 5-1, the Buccaneers might get an At-Large bid.

But...let’s say CIT beats VMI

Then, if Mercer beats ETSU this week and Samford (who have said they will play the game) on 4/17, Mercer will be SoCon Champs & take the SoCon AQ bid.

The SoCon Standings will be...

Mercer 6-2 0.750 (with a H2H win over Chattanooga, who has quit anyway)
Chattanooga 3-1 0.750
VMI 5-2 0.714
ETSU 4-2 0.667

Mercer, in this case, would, most likely, be the only SoCon Team in the Playoffs.

[WestCoastAggie]

In this weird season, do the "experts" here feel a SWAC team could get an At-Large Bid? Only the SCG is scheduled after the playoffs begin. Assuming UAPB makes it out of the West, Southern could be a candidate out of the SWAC West.

[Professor Chaos]

More national TV spots for the FCS playoffs in addition to the title game on ABC:

https://twitter.com/DomIzzoWDAY/status/1380258188533108741

[Professor Chaos]

In this weird season, do the "experts" here feel a SWAC team could get an At-Large Bid. Only the SCG is scheduled after the playoffs begin. Assuming UAPB makes it out of the West, Southern could be a candidate out of the SWAC West.
I'd say your guess is as good as anyone's. It's going to be pretty much a blind dart throw when it comes to deciding the at-larges with the utter lack of non-conference matchups this spring. I'd think the committee will rely more on historical conference pedigree when figuring out the at-larges which would mean the SWAC, with only 6 at-large spots available, will have a very hard time getting one. But, like I said, your guess is as good as mine.

[melloware13]

In this weird season, do the "experts" here feel a SWAC team could get an At-Large Bid? Only the SCG is scheduled after the playoffs begin. Assuming UAPB makes it out of the West, Southern could be a candidate out of the SWAC West.
The only SWAC team with no game on 4/24 is Alabama State, and they're already 2-2 so if they win out they're in the championship game but if they lose a game they're at best 3-3 on selection sunday.

[Professor Chaos]

All eyes on the CAA for teams on the bubble right now. The Delaware/Nova and JMU/Richmond matchups next week will be huge. If Delaware and JMU win it'll leave 2 at-larges out there for teams like the JSU/Murray loser, SLU, Missouri St, or Mercer. If Nova and Richmond both win the CAA could hoard 4 bids and squeeze out the rest of the bubble (assuming UND, EWU, and the NDSU/SDSU loser take the rest).

Consequently if either of those big CAA matchups get cancelled it'll knock out either Nova or Richmond from the at-large conversation since they won't have the requisite 4 games played.

[caribbeanhen]

All eyes on the CAA for teams on the bubble right now. The Delaware/Nova and JMU/Richmond matchups next week will be huge. If Delaware and JMU win it'll leave 2 at-larges out there for teams like the JSU/Murray loser, SLU, Missouri St, or Mercer. If Nova and Richmond both win the CAA could hoard 4 bids and squeeze out the rest of the bubble (assuming UND, EWU, and the NDSU/SDSU loser take the rest).

Consequently if either of those big CAA matchups get cancelled it'll knock out either Nova or Richmond from the at-large conversation since they won't have the requisite 4 games played.

Professor, can I post this on gohens and give you the credit?

I ask because it’s a great post

[Professor Chaos]

Professor, can I post this on gohens and give you the credit?

I ask because it’s a great post
Sure, go ahead.

[caribbeanhen]

Sure, go ahead.

Thank you and here it is if you want to see some Hen fan talk leading up to the big game this weekend

http://www.gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=27232&p=384078#p384078

[Gangtackle11]

Thank you and here it is if you want to see some Hen fan talk leading up to the big game this weekend

http://www.gohens.net/boards/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=27232&p=384078#p384078

Sets up an interesting scenario since Delaware would get Spring CAA North title & keep Nova from qualifying from playoffs if no 4th game. Given that things on the field between these 2 teams haven’t gone too well for the Blue Chicks since early in the century........One can only ponder what Coach Crock-o is thinking. xpeacex