Playoff Prognostications - 3/29

[TexasTerror]

Just for fun, throwing this out there... I am sure that I will get roasted on these particularly by Colonial fans and those who follow the OVC (all five of you, right?), but what do I know? Just for fun and getting some conversation started!


AUTOMATIC BIDS (10)
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Kennesaw State
Colonial: Delaware
Missouri Valley: North Dakota State
Northeast: Duquesne
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Holy Cross
Pioneer: San Diego
SoCon: VMI
Southland: Sam Houston State


AT-LARGES (6)
James Madison
Nicholls State
North Dakota
Richmond
South Dakota State
UC-Davis


FIRST TEAM OUT
Jacksonville State


SEEDS
1. Weber State
2. North Dakota State
3. Delaware
4. Sam Houston State


BRACKET
San Diego at (1) Weber State
North Dakota at Kennesaw State


VMI at James Madison
UC-Davis at (4) Sam Houston State


Nicholls State at (2) North Dakota State
Duquesne at Richmond


Holy Cross at (3) Delaware
Murray State at South Dakota State


NOTES


Weber State has easiest path to AQ; UC-Davis wins out and they'll just have a lone five-point loss at Weber, so they are an at-large. An undefeated Weber State team tops a one-loss North Dakota State and possible undefeated Delaware for the top seed
Not sure what to expect from Colonial, but I am putting three teams in and James Madison coming off that COVID layoff could impact and see them pick up a loss somewhere which knocks them out of top four seeds to Delaware, my AQ pick. Either way, three teams in and if James Madison is so good, they'll be able to take care of business. Just as a consolation prize for the Dukes, I gave them a quarterfinal trip to Sam Houston State.
North Dakota State hosts South Dakota State (and already beat North Dakota) so they are my AQ in the MVFC. Missouri State is an odd ball in this whole thing because of the split season situation, but they lose to North Dakota and that'll put NoDak into the playoffs.
In the OVC, it's Murray State's to lose. They play the two teams in their way of an AQ (at Austin Peay, home v Jax State) so I am giving them benefit of the doubt particularly since JaxState is at home. If JaxState loses at Murray State, that's two losses in last three. That will pop their bubble.

[Professor Chaos]

Do we know that it's only 4 seeds in the playoffs this year? I haven't seen it stated anywhere so thought it was possible they may still seed to 8 and then match up the unseeded teams with the seeded teams geographically.

[TexasTerror]

Do we know that it's only 4 seeds in the playoffs this year? I haven't seen it stated anywhere so thought it was possible they may still seed to 8 and then match up the unseeded teams with the seeded teams geographically.

I am not certain; the only references to playoff prognostications (albeit not a major media source) I found from a few weeks back had only four teams seeded - so that's what I went with. Mentally though, I tried making the quarterfinal matchups be somewhat "seeded" with the thought of going up to 8.

[melloware13]

I think if URI wins out and JMU beats Richmond this week, there could be an argument for the third CAA team between the two (both would have 1 loss). Only change then would be Patriot AQ (likely Holy Cross) plays URI and Duquesne comes to Newark.

[TheKingpin28]

I think if URI wins out and JMU beats Richmond this week, there could be an argument for the third CAA team between the two (both would have 1 loss). Only change then would be Patriot AQ (likely Holy Cross) plays URI and Duquesne comes to Newark.

Hard to see 3 MVFC and 3 CAA teams with only 2 spots for the likes of UCD/WSU/EWU/Idaho, JSU/Murray St, SHSU/SELA/NSU/IWU. Not saying it can't and/or won't happen, but the CAA ensured 2 playoff spots by splitting the conference up like they did. Would hate to be the committee to leave teams out this year. That said, win your games and then you are in.

[caribbeanhen]

something I threw together yesterday before the Sunday games started and the Jackson 5 loss


by Caribbean Hen (http://www.gohens.net/boards/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=47) » Sun Mar 28, 2021 9:50 am a quick look at the playoff picture

10 Auto Bids - a lot of guess work, I choose JMU to build the suspense a bit...

Weber State
Kennesaw State
JMU
North Dakota State
Duquesne
Jacksonville State
Holy Cross
San Diego
VMI
Sam Houston St

6 At large Bids come from these teams, some more alive than others.... I bolded the ones that I think have a more legit chance.... comes up to about 10 teams for 6 spots
East Washington
UC Davis
Idaho
Delaware
Richmond
Maine
Villanova
S Dakota State
North Dakota
Mizzu State
Sacred Heart
Bryant
Murray State
Davidson
Chattanoga - who basically tossed in the towel yesterday by not playing starters
ETSU
Nicholls State
[/b]Incarnate Word

[OhioHen]

Hard to see 3 MVFC and 3 CAA teams with only 2 spots for the likes of UCD/WSU/EWU/Idaho, JSU/Murray St, SHSU/SELA/NSU/IWU. Not saying it can't and/or won't happen, but the CAA ensured 2 playoff spots by splitting the conference up like they did. Would hate to be the committee to leave teams out this year. That said, win your games and then you are in.

Most likely scenario for three from the CAA is Richmond beating JMU this week and then both teams winning their remaining games.

[Professor Chaos]

Hard to see 3 MVFC and 3 CAA teams with only 2 spots for the likes of UCD/WSU/EWU/Idaho, JSU/Murray St, SHSU/SELA/NSU/IWU. Not saying it can't and/or won't happen, but the CAA ensured 2 playoff spots by splitting the conference up like they did. Would hate to be the committee to leave teams out this year. That said, win your games and then you are in.
I don't know, with Cal Poly pulling out the Big Sky has half of their league not playing now. I think one at-large for them is plenty. Does the OVC really deserve an at-large in this kind of format and only 6 available??? I think the loser of JSU/Murray St (hopefully that game gets played) is out. I'd say a good baseline for the 6 at-larges would be 2 from the CAA, 2 from the MVFC, 1 from the Big Sky, 1 from the Southland. That's doesn't have to be cut and dried but I think that would be a pretty fair distribution.

[TexasTerror]

I don't know, with Cal Poly pulling out the Big Sky has half of their league not playing now. I think one at-large for them is plenty. Does the OVC really deserve an at-large in this kind of format and only 6 available??? I think the loser of JSU/Murray St (hopefully that game gets played) is out. I'd say a good baseline for the 6 at-larges would be 2 from the CAA, 2 from the MVFC, 1 from the Big Sky, 1 from the Southland. That's doesn't have to be cut and dried but I think that would be a pretty fair distribution.

That's my best guess!

And if Southeastern defeats Nicholls (it's within the realm of possibility) and SHSU continues to run the table, the Southland would just be a one-bid league freeing up the possibility for a second OVC slot pending how those results work their way out

[TheKingpin28]

Most likely scenario for three from the CAA is Richmond beating JMU this week and then both teams winning their remaining games.It's going to be interesting to see who gets left out.

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[TheKingpin28]

I don't know, with Cal Poly pulling out the Big Sky has half of their league not playing now. I think one at-large for them is plenty. Does the OVC really deserve an at-large in this kind of format and only 6 available??? I think the loser of JSU/Murray St (hopefully that game gets played) is out. I'd say a good baseline for the 6 at-larges would be 2 from the CAA, 2 from the MVFC, 1 from the Big Sky, 1 from the Southland. That's doesn't have to be cut and dried but I think that would be a pretty fair distribution.I just know I wouldn't want to be on the committee selecting teams. The CAA set themselves up properly for at least 1 AL and most likely 2 with JMU getting the cakewalk to the playoffs and ensuring 1 if not 2 from the North also gets in.

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[KPSUL]

I think that Richmond is at best a long shot for the third CAA team in. (And that's even if there is 2 CAA at-large teams). After a likely loss hosting JMU, Richmond plays W&M away. The winner of UofR @ W&M will likely play JMU in a makeup of a postponed game on April 17th - regardless whether it is Richmond or W&M, that game would be @ JMU. To finish with only 1 loss, Richmond would have to win 2 out of 3 of those games and I don't see that happening. Not counting Delaware, the CAA North has several teams currently with one loss. Any of those teams would end up with only one loss if they win out. IF the CAA gets a 2nd at-large playoff selection I'd think it will come out of the North.
I suspect JMU has righted the ship and will win their remaining games regardless of who they play on Nov 17th. Delaware could still stumble, particularly against their nemesis - Villanova. If both JMU and Delaware were to end up with 5-0 conference records I believe the tie-breaker would be total points either scored or differential. Right now that is close, but in the end I'd bet on JMU edging them out. But it is less likely that Delaware will end up with a perfect conference record than JMU.

[MSUDuo]

Bears beat shot would entail:

1) Beating YSU (duh)
2) NDSU beats SDSU

It would also help if:

3) UNI beats NDSU
4) USD beats SDSU

[caribbeanhen]

That's my best guess!

And if Southeastern defeats Nicholls (it's within the realm of possibility) and SHSU continues to run the table, the Southland would just be a one-bid league freeing up the possibility for a second OVC slot pending how those results work their way out

I don’t disagree but it would just be horrible

[KPSUL]

I don’t disagree but it would just be horrible

I'm not sure why you think it would be horrible to see only one Southland team in a 16 team field? With the possible exception of SHSU, the Southland doesn't seem to understand the importance of playing a little defense. With the extremely lopsided losses of Nicholls to SHSU and now UIW to Nicholls, the Southland is looking like a one team conference. Couple that with the fact that no Southland Champion has gotten past the early rounds of the playoffs in 7 years I don't see treating them any differently than the Patriot League in playoff selection. Colgate teams performed better in the playoffs than any Southland team since SHSU made it to the semifinals. Given their lousy recent playoff record, and that the conference is about to implode later this year, isn't this a strange time to be so enamored with the Southland?

[Professor Chaos]

I'm not sure why you think it would be horrible to see only one Southland team in a 16 team field? With the possible exception of SHSU, the Southland doesn't seem to understand the importance of playing a little defense. With the extremely lopsided losses of Nicholls to SHSU and now UIW to Nicholls, the Southland is looking like a one team conference. Couple that with the fact that no Southland Champion has gotten past the early rounds of the playoffs in 7 years I don't see treating them any differently than the Patriot League in playoff selection. Colgate teams performed better in the playoffs than any Southland team since SHSU made it to the semifinals. Given their lousy recent playoff record, and that the conference is about to implode later this year, isn't this a strange time to be so enamored with the Southland?
Sam Houston made the semis as recently as 2017 and there's only been two playoffs since then. UCA hasn't done the conference any favors losing their playoff opener as a seeded team in 2017 and 2019 but I wouldn't say that should discount the Southland from getting an at-large bid this spring based on conference playoff history.

[KPSUL]

Sam Houston made the semis as recently as 2017 and there's only been two playoffs since then. UCA hasn't done the conference any favors losing their playoff opener as a seeded team in 2017 and 2019 but I wouldn't say that should discount the Southland from getting an at-large bid this spring based on conference playoff history.

As I said, a conference with one strong team. Almost every year a MVFC, Big Sky and a CAA team makes the semifinals, and I'm not just talking about JMU and NDSU. Let's not forget, only 16 teams make the playoffs with 10 AQs. I don't know what to make of Nicholls and UIW. 1 loss teams giving up 75 points in blow out loses? I think that may tell us more about how bad overall the conference is, not how good.

[Daytripper]

As I said, a conference with one strong team. Almost every year a MVFC, Big Sky and a CAA team makes the semifinals, and I'm not just talking about JMU and NDSU. Let's not forget, only 16 teams make the playoffs with 10 AQs. I don't know what to make of Nicholls and UIW. 1 loss teams giving up 75 points in blow out loses? I think that may tell us more about how bad overall the conference is, not how good.

Are you purposefully ignoring the correction that the Professor made about your false statement? Or are you moving the goalposts of your argument?

[KPSUL]

Are you purposefully ignoring the correction that the Professor made about your false statement? Or are you moving the goalposts of your argument?

OK to clarify, how about this: "Thanks for the correction Prof., however, since that one Semi appearance I missed was SHSU, it still looks to me like it's conference with one strong team."

To further clarify my original statement, since 2016 16 teams have made the Semi's: the MVFC has had 7 teams make the semifinals, the CAA 4, the Big Sky 4 and the Southland 1. That would be 3 different teams for the MVFC, 2 for the CAA, 2 for the BS and 1 for the SL. I'd say the goalpost is just about where I found it.

It would be interesting to look at Quarter Final appearance over the same time period. Why don't you help out with that rather than nitpicking other posts?

[caribbeanhen]

I'm not sure why you think it would be horrible to see only one Southland team in a 16 team field? With the possible exception of SHSU, the Southland doesn't seem to understand the importance of playing a little defense. With the extremely lopsided losses of Nicholls to SHSU and now UIW to Nicholls, the Southland is looking like a one team conference. Couple that with the fact that no Southland Champion has gotten past the early rounds of the playoffs in 7 years I don't see treating them any differently than the Patriot League in playoff selection. Colgate teams performed better in the playoffs than any Southland team since SHSU made it to the semifinals. Given their lousy recent playoff record, and that the conference is about to implode later this year, isn't this a strange time to be so enamored with the Southland?

2 from the Southland certainly better than two from the Ohio Valley

As long as they keep winning, I would put Nicholls in over Jacksonville State vs Murray State loser

[KPSUL]

2 from the Southland certainly better than two from the Ohio Valley

As long as they keep winning, I would put Nicholls in over Jacksonville State vs Murray State loser

If that's all it comes down to i wouldn't dispute that. But there will likely be other variables to consider. I might be too tough on Nicholls, but a conference #2 team losing 75-17 to a conference #1, when has that ever happened before? Anywhere? I can't reconcile that with a playoff appearance for Nicholls in a 16 team field, no matter how good SHSU is. I give them credit for coming back and getting back on a winning track. Maybe it was just a huge anomaly - once a wheel starts wobbling, sometimes they all fall off.

On an unrelated item, when are some of you Delaware fans going to climb up on the Delaware Band Wagon? It's getting lonely up here for me. I'm hoping after you win on April 3rd!

[Professor Chaos]

Shaping up to be a mess in the CAA South: https://www.dnronline.com/sports/college/dukes-contests-with-richmond-elon-postponed/article_d49ca1de-efa4-5ff5-9740-55f92e6dd824.html

COVID issues with both Richmond and Elon means both CAA South games this weekend and next are postponed and those are all that's left on the regular season schedules for Elon, JMU, Richmond, and W&M. Richmond has only 3 games in which precludes them from at-large consideration for the playoffs but can they still get the CAA auto? JMU is looking for more games with their 4 wins coming against teams with a combined 3-11 record. Yuck....

[kdinva]

Shaping up to be a mess in the CAA South: https://www.dnronline.com/sports/college/dukes-contests-with-richmond-elon-postponed/article_d49ca1de-efa4-5ff5-9740-55f92e6dd824.html

COVID issues with both Richmond and Elon means both CAA South games this weekend and next are postponed and those are all that's left on the regular season schedules for Elon, JMU, Richmond, and W&M. Richmond has only 3 games in which precludes them from at-large consideration for the playoffs but can they still get the CAA auto? JMU is looking for more games with their 4 wins coming against teams with a combined 3-11 record. Yuck....

....which opens up a long shot possibility of the SoCon getting an at large. VMI @ 6-1 (if not 7-0), and an ETSU team at either 5-1 or 4-2 would be on the table.

[KPSUL]

....which opens up a long shot possibility of the SoCon getting an at large. VMI @ 6-1 (if not 7-0), and an ETSU team at either 5-1 or 4-2 would be on the table.

April 17th is an open date for all the CAA South teams. A Richmond vs JMU makeup game would seem likely - if neither team is in "Covid Protocol".

[FUBeAR]

....which opens up a long shot possibility of the SoCon getting an at large. VMI @ 6-1 (if not 7-0), and an ETSU team at either 5-1 or 4-2 would be on the table.
C’mon kd - you don’t really think a 4-2 ETSU Team that lost to a Furman Team who will, most likely, be favored to finish 6-2, is standing in the At-Large line in front of the Paladins, do you?

Honestly, I don’t think a 5-1 ETSU Team, that didn’t play Chatt., would deserve to ‘cut’ a 6-2 FU Team that beat the MountainPirates H2H, in that line. They might get that ‘cut’ from the always interesting Committee, but the Purple Populace in Travelers Rest would not take too well to such a decision.

Not gonna happen anyway cuz your Roos gonna TCB on Sat...and the Bears gonna beat the Bucs...FUBeAR feelin’ it!

[ncspiderfan]

April 17th is an open date for all the CAA South teams. A Richmond vs JMU makeup game would seem likely - if neither team is in "Covid Protocol".
If Richmond postpones or cancels April 10 W&M (it is still on schedule as of right now), maybe JMU and W&M reschedule for that date and clear the date. If not I do not know if they would try to play on April 17th or if Richmond would make up a JMU game on that date, since both games are now off, they might try to let each team play each other at least once.

Should know more in a day or two concerning Richmond situation I would think, but if Richmond found first case(s) last night I would guess they have not found them all yet, but I hope I am wrong about them finding more.

[KPSUL]

If Richmond postpones or cancels April 10 W&M (it is still on schedule as of right now), maybe JMU and W&M reschedule for that date and clear the date. If not I do not know if they would try to play on April 17th or if Richmond would make up a JMU game on that date, since both games are now off, they might try to let each team play each other at least once.

Should know more in a day or two concerning Richmond situation implicationI would think, but if Richmond found first case(s) last night I would guess they have not found them all yet, but I hope I am wrong about them finding more.

It seemed to me that the key game with playoff and CAA championship implications is likely to be JMU vs Richmond; so why not go ahead and schedule it now on April 17th. Particularly since they haven't even played once yet.

[katss07]

Committee will release their Top 10 tonight apparently

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1377774782545068032

[kdinva]

C’mon kd - you don’t really think a 4-2 ETSU Team that lost to a Furman Team who will, most likely, be favored to finish 6-2, is standing in the At-Large line in front of the Paladins, do you?

Honestly, I don’t think a 5-1 ETSU Team, that didn’t play Chatt., would deserve to ‘cut’ a 6-2 FU Team that beat the MountainPirates H2H, in that line. They might get that ‘cut’ from the always interesting Committee, but the Purple Populace in Travelers Rest would not take too well to such a decision.

Not gonna happen anyway cuz your Roos gonna TCB on Sat...and the Bears gonna beat the Bucs...FUBeAR feelin’ it!

point taken, thanks for the confidence, I have it too!

[Chalupa Batman]

Committee will release their Top 10 tonight apparently

Apparently this is it. Absolute ****ing joke.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210402/e29929412dcf818cccfe91938ee0fa53.jpg

[ncspiderfan]

It seemed to me that the key game with playoff and CAA championship implications is likely to be JMU vs Richmond; so why not go ahead and schedule it now on April 17th. Particularly since they haven't even played once yet.
I agree about the playoff and championship implications. It does seem it would make sense for the conference to put it on the schedule.

Maybe they are waiting to see how the Richmond testing situation goes before they cancel the Richmond vs W&M game on the 10th since it is on the schedule. That game could take care of the whole issue with a Richmond lose, but a Richmond win and a JMU/Richmond game on April 17 likely becomes a play in game if Delaware stays perfect.

[Schism55]

I do not understand JMU at #1, let alone ahead of Delaware. Also shouldn't Weber be at #2 since they put JMU at #1??

[katss07]

I do not understand JMU at #1, let alone ahead of Delaware. Also shouldn't Weber be at #2 since they put JMU at #1??
Are you looking for logic here?

[Chalupa Batman]

I do not understand JMU at #1, let alone ahead of Delaware. Also shouldn't Weber be at #2 since they put JMU at #1??

I think Weber should be at #2, with Sammy at #1. They do have a good win over UC Davis.

JMU should be something like 7 or 8, for sure behind SDSU, NDSU, UND, and Delaware. Maybe even VMI and/or Murray St.

With the Dukes at #1 they might as well have UNI in the top 10.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Puddin Tane]

I'm not sure why you think it would be horrible to see only one Southland team in a 16 team field? With the possible exception of SHSU, the Southland doesn't seem to understand the importance of playing a little defense. With the extremely lopsided losses of Nicholls to SHSU and now UIW to Nicholls, the Southland is looking like a one team conference. Couple that with the fact that no Southland Champion has gotten past the early rounds of the playoffs in 7 years I don't see treating them any differently than the Patriot League in playoff selection. Colgate teams performed better in the playoffs than any Southland team since SHSU made it to the semifinals. Given their lousy recent playoff record, and that the conference is about to implode later this year, isn't this a strange time to be so enamored with the Southland?

could be cuz they send us to the mountains or those weird indoor domes where visitors never win. I wish they let the southland play some of those weak arse east coast teams.

playing big sky and Missouri f-Ing valley a lil different than getting Duquesne,Colgate, Monmouth and those other patsy schools

[Katfan]

I don’t know we’ve done ok

[atthewbon]

This honestly isn’t that bad. Although I personally don’t think JMU is the #1 team I’m more surprised that Murray st is in over Kennesaw st (idk how good either team is, neither have really played anyone good yet)

[Katfan]

This honestly isn’t that bad. Although I personally don’t think JMU is the #1 team I’m more surprised that Murray st is in over Kennesaw st (idk how good either team is, neither have really played anyone good yet)
Both aren’t good

[OhioHen]

Apparently this is it. Absolute ****ing joke.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210402/e29929412dcf818cccfe91938ee0fa53.jpg

Hello, Coaches Poll.

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1377824212858105858

WTF

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1377827019900194817

[atthewbon]

https://twitter.com/Madia_DNRSports/status/1377824212858105858

WTF

That’s ridiculous

[Professor Chaos]

Howard isn't even postseason eligible.

[FUBeAR]

NCAA lookin’ to catch some ESPN cash

Look for AL A&M to stay undefeated / win the SWAC East, freeing up Jackson “Primetime” State to snag an At-Large bid.

MEAC/SWAC match-up in Round 1 on ESPN

OR

MEAC AQ plays NEC or PFL AQ in Round1 on ESPN Double-Header

Jackson St plays PFL or NEC AQ in Round1 on ESPN Double-Header

Then...MEAC/SWAC (NCAA/ESPN hoped-for) match-up in Round 2 on ESPN

[OhioHen]

MEAC AQ plays NEC or PFL AQ in Round1 on ESPN Double-Header

Jackson St plays PFL or NEC AQ in Round1 on ESPN Double-Header

Then...MEAC/SWAC (NCAA/ESPN hoped-for) match-up in Round 2 on ESPN

MEAC champ gets blown out by Duquesne. Jackson State potentially competitive with San Diego, but then we have San Diego v. Duquesne for a spot in the semifinals in this scenario.

[mainejeff]

This spring season may bring down the entire FCS.....it's becoming a huge joke.

[TheKingpin28]

Someone really thought that was a good idea too.

[Professor Chaos]

Well, they did kind of box themselves in. They told the MEAC they could have an autobid and then they made the decision to allow conferences with a ridiculously low number of teams playing to get an autobid. To backtrack on that now would be a political mess.... instead they've created a competitive mess. They never should've made the exception to the 6 teams required for an autobid rule this spring.

[McCowboys]

Shaping up to be a mess in the CAA South: https://www.dnronline.com/sports/college/dukes-contests-with-richmond-elon-postponed/article_d49ca1de-efa4-5ff5-9740-55f92e6dd824.html

COVID issues with both Richmond and Elon means both CAA South games this weekend and next are postponed and those are all that's left on the regular season schedules for Elon, JMU, Richmond, and W&M. Richmond has only 3 games in which precludes them from at-large consideration for the playoffs but can they still get the CAA auto? JMU is looking for more games with their 4 wins coming against teams with a combined 3-11 record. Yuck....

Has the Covid vaccine made it to these states yet? In Texas, everyone age 16 and up is now eligible for the vaccine. Why don't all these teams, coaches, cheerleaders, band members, etc. get the vaccine and be done with all this? The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is one shot and you're done.

[Professor Chaos]

Has the Covid vaccine made it to these states yet? In Texas, everyone age 16 and up is now eligible for the vaccine. Why don't all these teams, coaches, cheerleaders, band members, etc. get the vaccine and be done with all this? The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is one shot and you're done.
I think most states are to the point now where college football players could get the vaccine but I doubt all players getting vaccinated changes the cancellation/postponement policy this spring. Whether getting vaccinated means there will be less positives is possible but that's a discussion better suited for the poli board. In any case, the vaccines take 2 weeks to "take effect" based on the information I've seen so even if everyone gets vaccinated today it'll be playoff time before it has an effect with the J&J vaccine or not until the end of the playoffs probably for the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines.

I think this is just the policy we're stuck with this spring. Hopefully by fall it can be loosened.

[katss07]

If that's all it comes down to i wouldn't dispute that. But there will likely be other variables to consider. I might be too tough on Nicholls, but a conference #2 team losing 75-17 to a conference #1, when has that ever happened before? Anywhere? I can't reconcile that with a playoff appearance for Nicholls in a 16 team field, no matter how good SHSU is. I give them credit for coming back and getting back on a winning track. Maybe it was just a huge anomaly - once a wheel starts wobbling, sometimes they all fall off.

On an unrelated item, when are some of you Delaware fans going to climb up on the Delaware Band Wagon? It's getting lonely up here for me. I'm hoping after you win on April 3rd!
In 2017, No. 4 SHSU beat No. 25 Nicholls 66-17. SHSU was atop the conference at the time and coming off of a quarterfinal appearance. Both teams ended up making the playoffs.

Obviously some other variables to consider, like the 24 team field and the fact that SHSU ended up being the runner up to UCA in the SLC, but that's as close to the scenario you presented I can think of. NSU went on to push Streveler and USD in the playoffs, while SHSU went to the semis and lost to Bizon.

[Schism55]

https://twitter.com/FCS_STATS/status/1378053347769454593

Welp, there it is xsmhx

[melloware13]

So SC State replaces the last at large, most likely makes at large breakdown:
2 MVFC
1 Big Sky
1 CAA
1 Southland

[Professor Chaos]

So SC State replaces the last at large, most likely makes at large breakdown:
2 MVFC
1 Big Sky
1 CAA
1 Southland
Probably a good bet. I'd think it could also come down to a 2nd at-large from the CAA at the expense of the SLC making it a 1 big league. At least one of NDSU or SDSU is going to have multiple losses also (as long as that game gets played)... might be a bit more of a sweat for the loser of that game than previously thought as well.

[FUBeAR]

Probably a good bet. I'd think it could also come down to a 2nd at-large from the CAA at the expense of the SLC making it a 1 big league. At least one of NDSU or SDSU is going to have multiple losses also (as long as that game gets played)... might be a bit more of a sweat for the loser of that game than previously thought as well.
Deion State gettin’ left out, Professor?

If they’re willing to participate, I just think the NCAA will not be able to resist monetizing the situation.

[WestCoastAggie]

Has the Covid vaccine made it to these states yet? In Texas, everyone age 16 and up is now eligible for the vaccine. Why don't all these teams, coaches, cheerleaders, band members, etc. get the vaccine and be done with all this? The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is one shot and you're done.

It's a process to vaccinate all of these players with the standards that are there currently in most states, even as states loosen up vaccine restrictions.

[melloware13]

Deion State gettin’ left out, Professor?

If they’re willing to participate, I just think the NCAA will not be able to resist monetizing the situation.
If Deion State is already eliminated from the SWAC championship by 4/18, they most definitely aren't getting an at large

[KPSUL]

In 2017, No. 4 SHSU beat No. 25 Nicholls 66-17. SHSU was atop the conference at the time and coming off of a quarterfinal appearance. Both teams ended up making the playoffs.

Obviously some other variables to consider, like the 24 team field and the fact that SHSU ended up being the runner up to UCA in the SLC, but that's as close to the scenario you presented I can think of. NSU went on to push Streveler and USD in the playoffs, while SHSU went to the semis and lost to Bizon.

Your example doesn't include the 2017 9-0 in the Southland Conference UCA Bears. Who actually won the conference championship and had the highest seed from the Southland in the playoffs. I didn't recall that SHSU went so deep into the playoffs that year - no doubt they have been an impressive playoffs team in this decade. In 2018 I posted an analysis of playoff performance to determine the relative strength of FCS teams since 2010. Sam Houston State was the clear #2 after NDSU. However, only one other Southland team had made it as far as the Quarterfinals in the entire period - SELU in 2013. During the same period the MVFC has had 5 different teams make in to the Quarterfinals, the Big Sky 5, and the CAA 8 different conference teams. (I could have missed a team form the MVFC and the Big Sky, so let's say at least 5)

[katss07]

Your example doesn't include the 2017 9-0 in the Southland Conference UCA Bears. Who actually won the conference championship and had the highest seed from the Southland in the playoffs. I didn't recall that SHSU went so deep into the playoffs that year - no doubt they have been an impressive playoffs team in this decade. In 2018 I posted an analysis of playoff performance to determine the relative strength of FCS teams since 2010. Sam Houston State was the clear #2 after NDSU. However, only one other Southland team had made it as far as the Quarterfinals in the entire period - SELU in 2013. During the same period the MVFC has had 5 different teams make in to the Quarterfinals, the Big Sky 5, and the CAA 8 different conference teams. (I could have missed a team form the MVFC and the Big Sky, so let's say at least 5)
Yeah not trying to argue for or against the SLC. Just presenting a similar scenario.

[Puddin Tane]

https://twitter.com/FCS_STATS/status/1378053347769454593

Welp, there it is xsmhx


i thought these schools celebrated in front of 80,000 fans instead of going to the playoffs?

[FUBeAR]

If Deion State is already eliminated from the SWAC championship by 4/18, they most definitely aren't getting an at large
Maybe - I thought AL ST was undefeated. Missed their loss to Southern. With the H2H win over PrimeU, if AL ST & JackState both win out...their schedules appear to end on 4/17...wouldn’t AL ST win the SWAC East & go to the SWAC Championship Game...freeing up Coach Sanders to enter his PIN into ESPN’s ATM / represent in the FCS Playoffs?

[caribbeanhen]

i thought these schools celebrated in front of 80,000 fans instead of going to the playoffs?

I wish Delaware was playing South Carolina St next week instead of Del St, that would silence this silly talk of the MEAC Auto Bid

[BNATION]

April 17th is an open date for all the CAA South teams. A Richmond vs JMU makeup game would seem likely - if neither team is in "Covid Protocol".
JMU doesn’t want that game. They want to walk into the playoffs seeded. I’m skeptical of JMU this year. They are suspect.

[mainejeff]

JMU doesn’t want that game. They want to walk into the playoffs seeded. I’m skeptical of JMU this year. They are suspect.

Agreed. Maine @ JMU on 4/17 if UNH cancels on us.xthumbsupx

[caribbeanhen]

Agreed. Maine @ JMU on 4/17 if UNH cancels on us.xthumbsupx

all the Maine talk will be over in a few hours...

[BNATION]

all the Maine talk will be over in a few hours...

You weren’t kidding señor.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mainejeff]

all the Maine talk will be over in a few hours...

No....I want as many games as possible to prepare for the fall.xthumbsupx

[katss07]

JMU doesn’t want that game. They want to walk into the playoffs seeded. I’m skeptical of JMU this year. They are suspect.
JMU is a first round out.

[melloware13]

JMU is a first round out.
Yeah, unless VMI is seeded I'd expect them to make the short trip to Harrisonburg to oust JMU

[BNATION]

JMU is a first round out.

Very possible


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gokat89]

Has the Covid vaccine made it to these states yet? In Texas, everyone age 16 and up is now eligible for the vaccine. Why don't all these teams, coaches, cheerleaders, band members, etc. get the vaccine and be done with all this? The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is one shot and you're done.

Because nothing is going to change. Hell, Texas has opened up 100% , has given millions of doses of vaccines and they still want the State to lock down. Its a joke. At some point, people in this country will realize they are being played like a cheap guitar, but its going to be too late when they do.xcoffeex

[KPSUL]

It now looks like we'll have a defacto CAA North Championship game on Apr 17th between Delaware and Villanova, we need a South game on April 17th between JMU and Richmond.

[Professor Chaos]

I'd say the Southland's chances of an at-large took a hit with Nicholls' loss today. Unless Incarnate Word can knock off SHSU the 2nd place SLC team will have two losses and there will be at most 3 teams in the SLC with 2 or less losses meaning not a lot of "quality looking wins" against other teams on the bubble to be had in the SLC.

[katss07]

I'd say the Southland's chances of an at-large took a hit with Nicholls' loss today. Unless Incarnate Word can knock off SHSU the 2nd place SLC team will have two losses and there will be at most 3 teams in the SLC with 2 or less losses meaning not a lot of "quality looking wins" against other teams on the bubble to be had in the SLC.
Same kind of thing in the OVC. After next weekend's Murray/JSU game, the OVC runner up will have 2 losses. Basically kills the chances of an at large.

Racers appearing in the Top 10 this week looks even worse than it did on Thursday.

[melloware13]

It now looks like we'll have a defacto CAA North Championship game on Apr 17th between Delaware and Villanova, we need a South game on April 17th between JMU and Richmond.
Although if URI wins out and Nova wins that game URI is the North champion by winning percentage (depending on how the tiebreaks are done), since they got a win against Albany.

[MSUDuo]

Won't lie. Feeling a little better after today.

Still gotta win next week and hold out hope.

[Professor Chaos]

Same kind of thing in the OVC. After next weekend's Murray/JSU game, the OVC runner up will have 2 losses. Basically kills the chances of an at large.

Racers appearing in the Top 10 this week looks even worse than it did on Thursday.
Yeah, that's also true. I didn't think they were really in play for an at-large even before today but that Murray St loss basically seals it. It'll be interesting to see how the SOCON shakes out. Both VMI and ETSU could end up as one loss teams... might tighten the bubble.

[atthewbon]

Same kind of thing in the OVC. After next weekend's Murray/JSU game, the OVC runner up will have 2 losses. Basically kills the chances of an at large.

Racers appearing in the Top 10 this week looks even worse than it did on Thursday.

I could see the committee letting in a 2 loss JSU being 8-3 overall including fall games (1-1 in fbs games). Although I don’t think they should. Bubble teams should be rooting for JSU because there is no chance for a 2 loss Murray st team.

[Professor Chaos]

I could see the committee letting in a 2 loss JSU being 8-3 overall including fall games (1-1 in fbs games). Although I don’t think they should. Bubble teams should be rooting for JSU because there is no chance for a 2 loss Murray st team.
I think JSU would be in better shape than Murray with a loss but I still think they'd need a ton of help. I think that 5th at-large at this point boils down to the #3 from the CAA or the #2 from the Southland or SOCON (assuming 2 at-large for the MVFC, 1 for the CAA, and 1 for the Big Sky). If those teams cannibalize each other it could bring a #2 from the OVC or even a Kennesaw St, if they lose to Monmouth, into the conversation.

[atthewbon]

I think JSU would be in better shape than Murray with a loss but I still think they'd need a ton of help. I think that 5th at-large at this point boils down to the #3 from the CAA or the #2 from the Southland or SOCON (assuming 2 at-large for the MVFC, 1 for the CAA, and 1 for the Big Sky). If those teams cannibalize each other it could bring a #2 from the OVC or even a Kennesaw St, if they lose to Monmouth, into the conversation.

Yea I agree. The last at-large is either going to be the 3rd from the caa (as far as I can tell the 5 possible teams that still have a shot are Delaware, Rhode Island, Villanova, Richmond, and JMU), ETSU from the SOCON (assuming both VMI and ETSU win out meaning VMI gets the auto and ETSU is 5-1), JSU if they lose to Murray st, or UIW if they beat SHSU. I think it would take a miracle (and a lot of upsets) for anyone else to get in. Kennesaw st (with a loss), Missouri st (the committee would have to not look to much into the fall games), or maybe Nicholls. I tried to put all of these in order of how likely I think they are to happen (3rd CAA most likely Nicholls least)

That means (assuming at least two caa/big sky teams make it and three valley teams make it) there would be only 4 or 5 teams with a realistic shot at getting the last at-large. One other thing to keep in mind is the committee might want to spread the bids out more and not have all 5 come from the top 3 conferences even if they end up being the mot deserving, which is very likely.

[Professor Chaos]

Yea I agree. The last at-large is either going to be the 3rd from the caa (as far as I can tell the 5 possible teams that still have a shot are Delaware, Rhode Island, Villanova, Richmond, and JMU), ETSU from the SOCON (assuming both VMI and ETSU win out meaning VMI gets the auto and ETSU is 5-1), JSU if they lose to Murray st, or UIW if they beat SHSU. I think it would take a miracle (and a lot of upsets) for anyone else to get in. Kennesaw st (with a loss), Missouri st (the committee would have to not look to much into the fall games), or maybe Nicholls. I tried to put all of these in order of how likely I think they are to happen (3rd CAA most likely Nicholls least)

That means (assuming at least two caa/big sky teams make it and three valley teams make it) there would be only 4 or 5 teams with a realistic shot at getting the last at-large. One other thing to keep in mind is the committee might want to spread the bids out more and not have all 5 come from the top 3 conferences even if they end up being the mot deserving, which is very likely.
Nicholls does have a decent shot to redeem themselves with their regular season finale against Southeastern Louisiana. SLU has narrow losses to Sam Houston and Incarnate Word and, more importantly, a win against McNeese. So if Nicholls can beat them an argument could be made that their loss to McNeese today was a fluke. If SLU wins that game I think you can mark the Southland down for 1 bid unless Incarnate Word topples Sam Houston. If Nicholls wins than I think they'll at least be in the conversation with the #3 from the CAA or a 1 loss VMI/ETSU.

[atthewbon]

Nicholls does have a decent shot to redeem themselves with their regular season finale against Southeastern Louisiana. SLU has narrow losses to Sam Houston and Incarnate Word and, more importantly, a win against McNeese. So if Nicholls can beat them an argument could be made that their loss to McNeese today was a fluke. If SLU wins that game I think you can mark the Southland down for 1 bid unless Incarnate Word topples Sam Houston. If Nicholls wins than I think they'll at least be in the conversation with the #3 from the CAA or a 1 loss VMI/ETSU.

Yea they can still make it but I think they’d need a lot of help. I watched part of the McNeese game today and it didn’t look like a fluke. Nicholls defense is terrible (just look at the San Houston game). I think if four of these five thing happen they have a decent shot.
1. CAA cannibalizes itself (only one at-large)
2. MVFC cannibalizes itself (loser of Dakota marker loses a game they shouldn’t) (only one at-large)
3. Sam Houston beats Incarnate Word (most likely) (no at large for Incarnate Word)
4. ETSU or VMI slip up and lose a game (No at-large from the SOCON)
5. JSU beats Murray st (I think an 8-3 JSU (1-1 vs fbs) gets in before 5-2 Nicholls with one win against Lincoln) (No at-large from the OVC)

If 4/5 of these happen there will still be one at-large spot left (assuming the big sky gets one) and unless I forgot something (I probably did) I think Nicholls would make it.

Edit: Missouri st could come into play as well

[X-Factor]

Has the Covid vaccine made it to these states yet? In Texas, everyone age 16 and up is now eligible for the vaccine. Why don't all these teams, coaches, cheerleaders, band members, etc. get the vaccine and be done with all this? The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is one shot and you're done.

There is also a big difference between being eligible and actually getting chosen to take the shot. Where I’m at it’s kind of a lottery system for those eligible.

[Cocky]

JSU should not get in with a loss. Dont have the QB play to make a surprise run. OVC will most likely be a one bid league this year.

[BNATION]

I think JSU would be in better shape than Murray with a loss but I still think they'd need a ton of help. I think that 5th at-large at this point boils down to the #3 from the CAA or the #2 from the Southland or SOCON (assuming 2 at-large for the MVFC, 1 for the CAA, and 1 for the Big Sky). If those teams cannibalize each other it could bring a #2 from the OVC or even a Kennesaw St, if they lose to Monmouth, into the conversation.
As stated above I think the only way Nicholls gets a shot is if they put it on SELA and SH only beat UIW by 14 or so. If not the Softland chants make their way to the committee’s ears.

[Puddin Tane]

Nichols is schizophrenic

[caribbeanhen]

Nichols is schizophrenic

Nicholls is like the hotty sitting at the bar at 1:30 in the morning until you discover the next morning she’s not so hot and she has more holes than the Nicholls defense and you’re afraid that that you might’ve filled them all

[TheKingpin28]

Nicholls is like the hotty sitting at the bar at 1:30 in the morning until you discover the next morning she’s not so hot and she has more holes than the Nicholls defense and you’re afraid that that you might’ve filled them all

"I swear to god, when I saw her last night at 2, she was a 10 and when I woke up at 10 she was a 2."