A little dose of playoff reality

[colgate13]

Oh dear AGS wise and seasoned, please give me your thoughts on this one:

For those of you that have never ventured to the Fordham board, there is a somewhat interesting character named Rambacker that makes, in my opinion, outlandish claims from time to time - or most of the time!

His latest, that this year the A-10 will have 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs (http://xsorbit28.com/users5/rams/index.php?topic=437.0) (and hence that is why it is so great and why Fordham should join the CAA). Forget the fact that Fordham hasn't been invited to the CAA (and your desire to perhaps discuss that minor point). Simply, give me your thoughts on the A-10 fielding 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs this year.

Thanks!

[ChickenMan]

Oh dear AGS wise and seasoned, please give me your thoughts on this one:

For those of you that have never ventured to the Fordham board, there is a somewhat interesting character named Rambacker that makes, in my opinion, outlandish claims from time to time - or most of the time!

His latest, that this year the A-10 will have 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs (http://xsorbit28.com/users5/rams/index.php?topic=437.0) (and hence that is why it is so great and why Fordham should join the CAA). Forget the fact that Fordham hasn't been invited to the CAA (and your desire to perhaps discuss that minor point). Simply, give me your thoughts on the A-10 fielding 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs this year.

Thanks!


only FIVE...??? :D

[WMTribe90]

I think there's about a 50% chance the A10 will get 4 teams in the playoffs.

I think there is a 10% chance the A10 will finish the regualr season with five teams at 8-3 or better. In this scenario, I'm guessing an 8-3 A10 team will most likely be watching the playoffs. Depending on what happens in other conferences with autobids, etc., I'd say there's a small chance five teams could make it.

JMU and UD would be the most vulnerable to being left out at 8-3 in the event 5 A10 teams finish at 8-3 or better IMO. JMU plays a DII and DSU. UD plays a DII and Holy Cross.

[DTSpider]

No way 5 teams from one conference get into the playoffs. While I firmly believe that the A10 is the best conference in terms of competitive balance I cannot imagine how you could justify a third of the playoff teams coming from the same conference.

However, assuming you have 5 teams at 8-3 the most likely scenario would involve a team like JMU or Delaware losing 3 conference games after beating their weak OOC opponents (notable exception Lehigh) while a team like Northeastern or UMass could have a great inconference record but go 1-2 OOC. It would be tough for JMU or Delaware to get left out of the playoffs but would really suck for a team to go 7-1 in conference and sit at home while another team goes 5-3 in conference and is in the playoffs.

[89Hen]

I think there is a 10% chance the A10 will finish the regualr season with five teams at 8-3 or better.

Let's break down the OOC's (BTW, don't anyone get bent out of shape on my predictions, they're just predictions):

North
UNH (3-0): UC-D (W), Dartmouth (W), Iona (W)
URI (3-0): Fordham (W), CCSU (W), Brown (W)
Hofstra (2-1): Albany (W), Stony Brook (W), Furman (L)
UMass (2-1): Colgate (W), Albany (W), Army (L)
Maine (2-1): Nebraska (L), Bill Penn (W), Albany (W) should we just make Albany an honorary member?
Northeastern (1-2): GSU (L), YSU (W), NWSt (L) holy cow that's an OOC

South
Delaware (3-0): Lehigh (W), WCUPA (W), Holy Cross (W)
JMU (3-0): Loch Haven (W), Coastal (W), DSU (W)
Towson (3-0): Morgan (W), Loch Haven (W), Liberty (W)
Villanova (2-1): Rutgers (L), Penn (W), Bucknell (W)
W&M (2-1): Marshall (L), VMI (W), Liberty (W)
Richmond (1-2): Colgate (L), Vandy (L), VMI (W)

Of the five 3-0 OOC teams, two are predicted to be at the bottom of the A10 (TU and URI). Of the teams that are picked to be near the top, you have...
UD-JMU
UD-W&M
UD-UMass
UD-VU
JMU-UMass
JMU-W&M
JMU-UNH
JMU-VU
UNH-UMass
UNH-W&M
UNH-VU
VU-W&M

Now throw in Maine, NU and HU as spoilers (cripes, HU could be on the above list too) and I think the A10 may go back to their normal parity. I'm predicting another 2001 with four teams tied at 7-2 for the A10 title. :p

[lucchesicourt]

Regardless of the records of the A-10 teams, it seems totally unreasonable to put 5 teams in the playoffs from one conference. Why? There will be only ONE conference champion and there would be a total of 4 teams rated better then them in THEIR OWN COFERENCE. Given that fact, it would seem that they would be the 5th best team in the conference. Hence, being that is the best they could do, they should not be given the opportunity to be national champions. I do believe, other teams in the conference can win on ANYGIVEN DAY, so more will be invited from the A-10. But, to allow 5, would be to ignore the possibility that teams in other conferences, even with poorer overall records but still competetive within their own confernce, may have played against a higher level of competition. We will not know until the season is played out. But, it is still obvious they at #5, they ARE NOT the best team in the country. Isn't that what the playoffs are about?

[th0m]

5 teams? Definitely not. 4 teams? Maybe.

I would also like to point out to 89Hen that we do not play UNH this year.

[SpiritCymbal]

I think the playoff committee has made it clear that it's near impossible for them to award a playoff spot to a 4th team from a conference, little along a 5th team. I believe this past year was the first time 4 teams from a conference have been awarded playoff bids. Back in 2002 the Southern Conference had a legitimate shot at having 4 teams in the playoffs but Wofford was passed over for that chance. I believe the A10 has had 3 participants several times as well.

Perhaps if they increase number of playoff spots like it has been proposed, then we'll start to see conferences with four and five teams regularly. Of course, how many conferences are strong enough to have five teams even be considered. I think A10 would be the only conference.

[colgate13]

Actually, if I remember correctly last year was the second year in a row there were four from a conference, the first being 2003 and the Gateway.

and Hen, your OOC predictions are WHACK! J/K... except for the fact that Richmond plays Lafayette and not Colgate! :D

[WMTribe90]

FYI, The Gateway had four playoff teams in 2003. So, four teams has happened twice. If half the Gateway can go in one season, why can't less than half the teams (5 of 12) from the A10 go in the same year??

I don't think 5 teams from one conference is good for the playoff system and I hope the commitee doesn't have to ever make that choice under the current 16 team format. The only conference where this could even be an issue is the A10 due to its overall size (12 teams) and relative top to bottom strength.

I'll play devil's advocate for a second. What if WM beats Marshall, Liberty and VMI in their OOC and beats ranked UNH and UD at home, but loses games to JMU at home and Villanova and NU on the road to 8-3. Would you take WM as the fifth A10 team or say an 8-3 Wofford team that lost to Furman, GSU and ASU as a third SoCon team. I know this is an unlikely scenario. I'm just not sure you can say there is NO scenario where a fifth A10 is deserving of a playoff spot.

[Umass74]

There is an interesting fact about last year.

UMass finished 6-5, BUT we lost to two of the worst teams in the A10. We lost to Richmond and Rhode Island.

WE were ahead in both those games. If we had won, we would have finished 8-3. Since those wins would have been against the Rams and the Spiders, it would not have effected the records of Delaware, W&M, New Hampshire and JMU.

There would have been FIVE teams from the A10 with eight wins or better. Would the A10 have received 5 playoff slots??

We blew out New Hampshire head-to-head. We lost to the Hens and JMU. We DNP William & Mary..

[89Hen]

Zounds 74, great question. I think the A10 still only gets four, but I can't figure out which one doesn't get in. I'd have to think either UD or UMass.

[ChickenMan]

There is an interesting fact about last year.

UMass finished 6-5, BUT we lost to two of the worst teams in the A10. We lost to Richmond and Rhode Island.

WE were ahead in both those games. If we had won, we would have finished 8-3. Since those wins would have been against the Rams and the Spiders, it would not have effected the records of Delaware, W&M, New Hampshire and JMU.

There would have been FIVE teams from the A10 with eight wins or better. Would the A10 have received 5 playoff slots??

We blew out New Hampshire head-to-head. We lost to the Hens and JMU. We DNP William & Mary..


No... unless the playoffs are expanded... there won't be five playoff teams from the same conference.

[WMTribe90]

No... unless the playoffs are expanded... there won't be five playoff teams from the same conference.

I'm not neccessarily disagreeing, but care to back that statement up as to why not? Also what about the scenario I laid out above, would WM stay home with two top 25 I-AA and a I-A win? A fifth A10 team? Likely no, but never say never.

[Ken_Z]

13,

I am looking forward to you reporting back to the Fordham board. I go there periodically simply for the laughs that Rambacker is always willing to provide. You know this info will be rejected as it simply comes from rational fans and he no doubt has inside information from his contacts on the selection committee :D

I would be interested in comments from the A10/CAA fans on what appeal Fordham would or would not hold for them as a future conference member.

[DTSpider]

There is an interesting fact about last year.

UMass finished 6-5, BUT we lost to two of the worst teams in the A10. We lost to Richmond and Rhode Island.

WE were ahead in both those games. If we had won, we would have finished 8-3. Since those wins would have been against the Rams and the Spiders, it would not have effected the records of Delaware, W&M, New Hampshire and JMU.

There would have been FIVE teams from the A10 with eight wins or better. Would the A10 have received 5 playoff slots??

We blew out New Hampshire head-to-head. We lost to the Hens and JMU. We DNP William & Mary..

I'm pretty sure that Richmond tied it up at the start of the second quarter and led at the half. Not sure if you can really say UMass was ahead much in that game.

[blukeys]

I can see circumstances where the CAA/A-10 gets 5 slots. But first they need to have continued success in the playoffs. I think the selection committee looks at the performance of conferences in the playoffs and weighs that factor in making the last picks for the playoff field. For instance I think Lehigh can thank Colgate for getting a 2nd PL slot in '04.

If the A-10/CAA continue having the level of success they enjoyed recently then there will be less complaining if the 5 pick is made although there will always be some. The fact is that in '03 the Gateway had one half of their teams in the playoffs and so the precedent for half a conference being invited has already been set.

In '04 there was a chance with 2 weeks left for 6 A-10 teams to have 8-3 records. Luckily for the selection committee 4 teams finished with identical records instead of 6.

[ngineer]

The NCAA just won't let it happen--regardless of merit. The need for diversity, blah, blah, blah. All politics is local in sports, too..

[colgate13]

What I haven't heard anyone discuss (I think) is, who stays home for a 5th A-10 team? In 2004, Lehigh? NAU in 2003? While the arguements for 5 worthy teams from the A-10 are certainly justifiable in some years, when do they become so worthy that they take the playoff spot from another team, such as a team from an autobid conference that only has two losses?

[89Hen]

What I haven't heard anyone discuss (I think) is, who stays home for a 5th A-10 team? In 2004, Lehigh? NAU in 2003?
I think the ones that say a 5th team is possible, would also believe that all the stars would have to line up, such as the other conferences having really bad years.

[WMTribe90]

C13,

From earlier in this thread...


I'll play devil's advocate for a second. What if WM beats Marshall, Liberty and VMI in their OOC and beats ranked UNH and UD at home, but loses games to JMU at home and Villanova and NU on the road to 8-3. Would you take WM as the fifth A10 team or say an 8-3 Wofford team that lost to Furman, GSU and ASU as a third SoCon team. I know this is an unlikely scenario. I'm just not sure you can say there is NO scenario where a fifth A10 is deserving of a playoff spot.

I don' think the A10 automatically gets a fifth team if/when five A10 teams finish 8-3 or better. It will depend on what happens in other conferences with respect to their autobids etc.

In the above sample, if the commitee was choosing between an 8-3 WM and an 8-3 Wofford, I would hope WM would get the nod as the fifth A10 team as opposed to a third from the SoCon under that scenario.

[JoltinJoe]

I would be interested in comments from the A10/CAA fans on what appeal Fordham would or would not hold for them as a future conference member.

The fact is that Fordham was asked by the A-10 to join on at least two ocassions. So Fordham playing in the A-10/CAA is not as unrealistic as you seem to imply.

And why wouldn't the A-10/CAA be interested? Fordham is in New York, the nation's largest market, and receives far more attention in the New York media, as an institution, than Hofstra. Moreover, Fordham brings a strong football tradition equalled in the A-10 only by Delaware.

[WMTribe90]

Fordham brings a strong football tradition equalled in the A-10 only by Delaware.

Not so fast my friend. I believe WM has been playing football for over 100 years and has had some pretty memorable moments. If the CAA had a spot to fill for affliate football membership, a Fordham program with scholarships would be a great pick-up IMO.

[colgate13]

Well it was bound to happen anyway...

I think Fordham in the A-10 would have happened for a lot of reasons, the least of which would be that wouldn't the A-10 have been required to take them if they offered scholarships?

The CAA is a different boat in my opinion. I see the CAA as a league that isn't looking for more affliates but rather full conference members to play in all sports. They have a football league now because they're taking over the A-10. I can't see them expanding to 13 teams to accomodate another affiliate.

[JoltinJoe]

Not so fast my friend. I believe WM has been playing football for over 100 years and has had some pretty memorable moments. I the CAA had a sopt to fill for affliate football membership, a Fordham program with scholarships would be a great pick-up IMO.

You know, after I posted, I thought perhaps I was giving W&M less due than warranted.

But my point was simply that Fordham brings with it a great tradition, even if its greatest moments were many years ago. And that Fordham in the A-10/CAA very easily could have happened.

[89Hen]

I see the CAA as a league that isn't looking for more affliates but rather full conference members to play in all sports. They have a football league now because they're taking over the A-10. I can't see them expanding to 13 teams to accomodate another affiliate.
Bingo. Until somebody leaves, there's no way the CAA takes anyone in. And if somebody does leave, I think 13 is correct in that any replacement will be an all-sports school.

[colgate13]

Bingo. Until somebody leaves, there's no way the CAA takes anyone in. And if somebody does leave, I think 13 is correct in that any replacement will be an all-sports school.

If only the entire world had the vision that we share... :p

[WMTribe90]

WMTRibe90 wrote:


If the CAA had a spot to fill for affliate football membership, a Fordham program with scholarships would be a great pick-up IMO.

Of course a current affiliate wouldn't be booted in favor of a Fordham with scholarships. If, for example, URI dropped football, then Fordham would certainly be a great possibility to fill a slot in the northern division.

[GrizzlyEdd]

maybe five if the A-10 could only get Mr.Chicken & Chicken Man to coach a couple of teams...:D ;) :nod:

[rcny46]

Zounds 74, great question. I think the A10 still only gets four, but I can't figure out which one doesn't get in. I'd have to think either UD or UMass.


I believe you are right about DU,but that UMass will be in,along with JMU and W&M.I give UNH little if any chance,so if a fourth team is selected I imagine it would be either Villanova or Hofstra,with Richmond as a darkhorse.

[89Hen]

I believe you are right about DU,but that UMass will be in,along with JMU and W&M.I give UNH little if any chance,so if a fourth team is selected I imagine it would be either Villanova or Hofstra,with Richmond as a darkhorse.
'74 posed a what if from last year, not this year.

[Proud Griz Man]

If the A-10 had 16 teams, the entire 1-AA playoffs could be A-10 teams. :D :rolleyes:

[rcny46]

'74 posed a what if from last year, not this year.


You're right-I went back and read UMass 74's post a second time,and realized I didn't know what I was talking about.Now that was dumb! As pinishment,I'm going to keep my mouth shut for awhile;maybe that will help.Thanks for setting me straight.

[Ken_Z]

The fact is that Fordham was asked by the A-10 to join on at least two ocassions. So Fordham playing in the A-10/CAA is not as unrealistic as you seem to imply.

And why wouldn't the A-10/CAA be interested? Fordham is in New York, the nation's largest market, and receives far more attention in the New York media, as an institution, than Hofstra. Moreover, Fordham brings a strong football tradition equalled in the A-10 only by Delaware.

no offense intended Joe. I allowed that interest was reasonable, but to be honest now that the CAA sponsors the league, I don't think the same levers exist for Fordham if they wanted to join. I am delighted they are in the PL and do not weant them to leave, but if the PL had 12 teams I would not want to add more even if there was a good fit. I was curious if others see things differently since if Fordham did leave it would put a hurt on the PL.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Based on last year's seeding, I believe that the ranking of the A-10 playoff teams was 1st W&M, 2nd UNH, 3rd JMU and 4th UD. I was just watching a tape of the UNH-GSU playoff game and they had overall rankings of 4th for GSU and 5th for UNH. So, I'd have to agree that UMass would have been fighting it out with UD for the fourth spot. That would have led to much discussion about the head to head matchup between UD-UMass as well as the UD win over D-II West Chester.

[Umass74]

Well, I don't think the A10 would have received 5 bids.

I agree if UMass had won those two games and ended up 8-3 it would have come down to either the Hens or us.

One of our losses was to Boston College (a team that blew a BCS bowl with a late loss to Syracuse).

And one of the Hens wins was over West Chester.

But they did beat us head-to-head and I think the NCAA would have taken into consideration all that $$ that the Hens generate at home.

Still, it would have been fun to make the commitee sweat.

[El_Gato]

If the committee EVER put 5 teams from ANY one conference in the playoffs, the members should be executed immediately.

[89Hen]

One of our losses was to Boston College (a team that blew a BCS bowl with a late loss to Syracuse). And one of the Hens wins was over West Chester. But they did beat us head-to-head and I think the NCAA would have taken into consideration all that $$ that the Hens generate at home.
I'm in 100% agreement of your assessment there. It would be a tough call, but I think the Hens attendance could have made the difference, even if it shouldn't.

[ChickenMan]

I'm in 100% agreement of your assessment there. It would be a tough call, but I think the Hens attendance could have made the difference, even if it shouldn't.

Head to head would have made the difference.

[Umass74]

When I started this I did not intend to imply that UMass was of playoff caliber last year. We were not.

I did think that it was an interesting statistical oddity that we could have gone 8-3 without impacting the records of the four A10 teams that did make the playoffs

[JoltinJoe]

no offense intended Joe. I allowed that interest was reasonable, but to be honest now that the CAA sponsors the league, I don't think the same levers exist for Fordham if they wanted to join. I am delighted they are in the PL and do not weant them to leave, but if the PL had 12 teams I would not want to add more even if there was a good fit. I was curious if others see things differently since if Fordham did leave it would put a hurt on the PL.

I guess I misunderstood the intent of your post.

Anyway, I agree with you that the door has probably closed on Fordham's chance to enter the A-10/CAA. The conference has 12 teams. Adding another at this point would make it even more unwieldy. Further, the Rams are happy to play football in the PL, and the school has no intention of leaving anway.

[Dukester]

I think there's about a 50% chance the A10 will get 4 teams in the playoffs.

I think there is a 10% chance the A10 will finish the regualr season with five teams at 8-3 or better. In this scenario, I'm guessing an 8-3 A10 team will most likely be watching the playoffs. Depending on what happens in other conferences with autobids, etc., I'd say there's a small chance five teams could make it.

JMU and UD would be the most vulnerable to being left out at 8-3 in the event 5 A10 teams finish at 8-3 or better IMO. JMU plays a DII and DSU. UD plays a DII and Holy Cross.

JMU also plays the most difficult road conference schedule.

[McTailGator]

Oh dear AGS wise and seasoned, please give me your thoughts on this one:

For those of you that have never ventured to the Fordham board, there is a somewhat interesting character named Rambacker that makes, in my opinion, outlandish claims from time to time - or most of the time!

His latest, that this year the A-10 will have 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs (http://xsorbit28.com/users5/rams/index.php?topic=437.0) (and hence that is why it is so great and why Fordham should join the CAA). Forget the fact that Fordham hasn't been invited to the CAA (and your desire to perhaps discuss that minor point). Simply, give me your thoughts on the A-10 fielding 5 teams in the I-AA playoffs this year.

Thanks!


Given the fact that there are automatically 8 teams there now, only 8 at large bids, and a selection committee from all over the nation from every I-AA conference, there is no chance of 5 A-10 teams.

Also, if the A-10 is as balanced as the Southland is this year it will be tough because they will beat up on themselves too much to have enough teams with enough wins to get at large bids.


The Southland will easily have 3 teams good enough to get in this year. But given their OOC schedules and the balance of the best teams in conference, it will bee very tough for more than 2 SLC teams to make it.

Northwestern Louisiana and Texas State will be among the best of any team in the country this year.

If Northwestern doesn't do it this year with the players they have, they will NEVER do it.

[umassfan]

Four maybe on freak years (weird circumstances happened the last two years). No matter how big the Conference is none will ever get five teams in the playoffs of 16 teams.
Never say never... because soon you might be calling 5 A10 teams freakish when it happens.

[WMTribe90]

Four maybe on freak years (weird circumstances happened the last two years). No matter how big the Conference is none will ever get five teams in the playoffs of 16 teams.

Ralph,

If there is a potential for five A10 teams to finish at 8-3 or better and there is a precedent of sending half the teams from one conference to the playoffs in the same year (4 of 8 Gateway teams in 2003), then how can you say there is absolutely no way the A10 ever gets five teams into the playoffs? Before 2003 and 2004 I'm sure most on here would have said no way one conference sends four teams in the same year. Never say never.

[JMU Duke Dog]

JMU also plays the most difficult road conference schedule.

10/1 at Hofstra #24
10/15 at Massachusetts #15
10/22 at Delaware #10
11/5 at William & Mary #9

*These rankings were taken from The Sports Network preseason poll.

I definitely agree with you on that statement Dukester. Hopefully the Dukes can carry their road warrior status from last season's playoffs into this season's regular season. The only loss JMU had on the road last year was in Morgantown, WV to the West Virginia Mountaineers while they were ranked in the top 10 of Division I-A.

[colgate13]

I'll never say never, but to distill this even further, we're really talking about 8 at-large bids going to 4 A-10 teams. 4? So the Gateway, SoCon, Southland and Big Sky all get one... there are no other 8-3 teams out there worthy?

I just think of the past few years of Cal Poly, Lehigh, Wofford, etc. all being "left out" and the grumblings that caused. We're going to do that to TWO teams so that a fifth 8-3 A-10 team can slide in? I don't see it. It would have to be a really weird year.

[WMTribe90]

I'll never say never, but to distill this even further, we're really talking about 8 at-large bids going to 4 A-10 teams. 4? So the Gateway, SoCon, Southland and Big Sky all get one... there are no other 8-3 teams out there worthy?

I just think of the past few years of Cal Poly, Lehigh, Wofford, etc. all being "left out" and the grumblings that caused. We're going to do that to TWO teams so that a fifth 8-3 A-10 team can slide in? I don't see it. It would have to be a really weird year.

13,

I hear what you are saying. As I stated earlier in this thread, just because five A10 teams finish at 8-3 I don't automatically assume all five are deserving of playoff spots. The stars will certainly have to align with respect to what plays out in other conferences.

However, if the A10 continues to be the toughest conference with respect to its top to bottom strength, then I don't think its too far-fetched to believe that in one year 5 of the top 16 teams could reside within the A10. I'd say there's a pretty good chance of this happening this year in the GPI and/or Sagarin. Someone is always going to be left in the cold, but most times I would take an 8-3 A10 team's SOS against an 8-3 from any other conference (assuming all 11 games are DI opponents). I think competition for playoff spots is going to increase and teams that would have made it in the past are going to be left out. The A10 (at present) has an built in SOS advantage over the other I-AA conferences. Teams that don't upgrade their OOC SOS leave themselves vulnerable IMO.

For example, say WM is the potential fifth A10 playoff team at the end of this season with a record of 8-3.

Wins: Marshall (IA), VMI, URI, Liberty, UR, Towson, UD (ranked/playoffs), UNH (ranked/playoffs).

Losses: VU, NU, JMU (ranked/playoffs).

That's a pretty solid resume and I'd feel pretty good matching it up against any other 8-3 team in the country.

Certainly not super likely, but sooner or later the comittee will be forced to make some really tough choices. If they go by SOS, you could possibly see 5 A10 teams. At that point in time this board will automatically implode.

[89Hen]

Never say never...
I was thinking the same thing. We all thought there was no way they'd ever take four from a conference and we are seeing that as commonplace.

[89Hen]

So the Gateway, SoCon, Southland and Big Sky all get one...
In 2003 both the Southland and SoCon had NO at-large berths, IMO this really isn't as much a stretch as you think. I will go back to my post earlier though that a lot of stars have to align to make this possible, beyond just five 8-3 A10 teams. You have to have a down year for a couple other conferences too.

[colgate13]

Someone is always going to be left in the cold, but most times I would take an 8-3 A10 team's SOS against an 8-3 from any other conference (assuming all 11 games are DI opponents).

And that is an assumption worth noting if UD is one of the 8-3 teams not winning the autobid. They've always got West Chester. Could that come back to bite them in the a "stars aligning" scenario?

[WMTribe90]

And that is an assumption worth noting if UD is one of the 8-3 teams not winning the autobid. They've always got West Chester. Could that come back to bite them in the a "stars aligning" scenario?

JMU (DSU and Loch Haven) and UD (HC and West Chester) have both left themselves a little vulnerable IMO in the event either finishes 8-3 AND are one of four or five A10 teams to do so... A ready-made distinction the committee could use for excluding either one in favor of a 8-3 sqaud from another conference. Low probabilty, but it could play out that way IMO.

[89Hen]

JMU (DSU and Loch Haven) and UD (HC and West Chester) have both left themselves a little vulnerable
Yeah, but.....

JMU (2004 National Champion and 15,000 fannies)
UD (2003 National Champion and 22,000 fannies)
:D

[WMTribe90]

I'm sure UD's attendance will ensure UD a home game virtually every time they are selected to the field. I'm just not sure attendance has any bearing on being selected in the first place. According to the selection criteria/guidelines, attendance is only a factor in selecting hosts, not selecting the field (as it should be). The recent NC certainly is a feather in the cap and I'm sure the commitee considers recent playoff success.

[89Hen]

The language is ambiguous enough that the Committee can consider teams that would be best for I-AA.

[charliej]

JMU also plays the most difficult road conference schedule.


IF Nova was one of those 8-3 teams,they would boast a pretty tough road sched too,though not all in conference.

Seven road games,(Franklin Field is NOT home to the team),Including-

IA Rutgers
#7 UNH
#1 JMU
And a pretty good Penn team.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Let's cut to the chase. There is no way in this Good Green Earth that the A-10 will field 5 playoff teams.

The only way 4 teams get in is: if the 4th team is Delaware, just like last year, or JMU.

Can you imagine members of the I-AA playoff committee pulling strings to bring in as a 4th team, UNH? Maine? Villanova? No way. That 4th team would have to bring something massive to the table aside from an 8-3 record - and UD offers a sellout and a good I-AA gameday. That's what happened last year.

This year, it would be hard to deny last year's winner the chance to defend their title if they qualify (the unofficial "Western Kentucky" rule, I believe), but any other A-10 team? Don't make me laugh. Last year, if UNH went 1-2 in OOC games and only beat 1 playoff-bound team, you can bet they would have been sitting at home watching the playoffs on TV.

[umassfan]

Let's cut to the chase. There is no way in this Good Green Earth that the A-10 will field 5 playoff teams.

The only way 4 teams get in is: if the 4th team is Delaware, just like last year, or JMU.

Can you imagine members of the I-AA playoff committee pulling strings to bring in as a 4th team, UNH? Maine? Villanova? No way. That 4th team would have to bring something massive to the table aside from an 8-3 record - and UD offers a sellout and a good I-AA gameday. That's what happened last year.

This year, it would be hard to deny last year's winner the chance to defend their title if they qualify (the unofficial "Western Kentucky" rule, I believe), but any other A-10 team? Don't make me laugh. Last year, if UNH went 1-2 in OOC games and only beat 1 playoff-bound team, you can bet they would have been sitting at home watching the playoffs on TV.

NEVER SAY NEVER!

[Tribe4SF]

In 2003 both the Southland and SoCon had NO at-large berths, IMO this really isn't as much a stretch as you think. I will go back to my post earlier though that a lot of stars have to align to make this possible, beyond just five 8-3 A10 teams. You have to have a down year for a couple other conferences too.

I agree. If by some stretch GSU and Furman were to both lose to A-10 teams, that could open up the possibility. The statements of the committee last spring laid the ground work for a more objective selection process in the future. With the NCAA's historic focus on money, however, I'll need to see evidence before I believe them.

[Fordham]

NEVER SAY NEVER! Wow, using THAT "logic" you can't even rule out 8 A10/CAA teams making it. Or even 13, if Rambacker gets his way in the future.

I agree with LFN's post. Additionally, this has nothing to do with whether or not the 5th best A10 team might be better than an at-large from another conference, just simply the likelihood that the committee would ever approve that 5th (which I'd argue has too much of a 'when hell freezeth over' aspect to it).

[McNeese72]

If McNeese's offense turns the ball over 44 times like last season, we won't even be able to see the playoffs with the Hubble Telescope. :)

Edit: Oops, I thought I was posting this in that other playoff thread I saw earlier in the week. Oh, well, first mistake this season. :)

[WMTribe90]

Wow, using THAT "logic" you can't even rule out 8 A10/CAA teams making it. Or even 13, if Rambacker gets his way in the future.

I agree with LFN's post. Additionally, this has nothing to do with whether or not the 5th best A10 team might be better than an at-large from another conference, just simply the likelihood that the committee would ever approve that 5th (which I'd argue has too much of a 'when hell freezeth over' aspect to it).

I stated earlier in this thread that I don't think 5 teams from one conference is neccessarily a good thing for I-AA football. However, if five teams from the A10 are ranked in the Top 18 or so (excluding Ivies ranked above) and the commitee has already set the precedent of sending one-half the teams from one conference to the playoffs (Gateway 2003), then I'm not sure why its completely out of the range of possibilty.

Why is it okay to send 4 of 8 Gateway members, but sending 5 of 12 A10 members is out of the question? Especially considering the A10 is the higher ranked conference.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Why is it okay to send 4 of 8 Gateway members, but sending 5 of 12 A10 members is out of the question? Especially considering the A10 is the higher ranked conference.

Answer: It wasn't OK then, and it was barely OK last year that they took 4 A-10 teams - and even then it was an extraordinary circumstance.

The "Gateway 4" came about when the I-AA playoff committee ignored their own standards and let WKU in the playoffs, stiffing a good Lehigh team. This despite WKU not playing all Division I competition and only having 1 good win on their schedule. They were, however, the defending I-AA champions, which gave them a trump card over 8-3 Lehigh, who played a better schedule.

You can't look at divisions here, you have to look at individual teams. I think everyone agrees that if Towson goes 8-3 with losses to JMU, Delaware, and Morgan St. that they shouldn't be in the playoffs just because they share a confrerence with JMU. If Maine goes 8-3 and beats I-A Nebraska, I have a hard time not putting them in even if they don't win their division.

[89Hen]

it was barely OK last year that they took 4 A-10 teams
Please explain.

[ChickenMan]

Please explain.

Easy answer... he's a Lehigh guy... :p

[WMTribe90]

Answer: It wasn't OK then, and it was barely OK last year that they took 4 A-10 teams - and even then it was an extraordinary circumstance.

The "Gateway 4" came about when the I-AA playoff committee ignored their own standards and let WKU in the playoffs, stiffing a good Lehigh team. This despite WKU not playing all Division I competition and only having 1 good win on their schedule. They were, however, the defending I-AA champions, which gave them a trump card over 8-3 Lehigh, who played a better schedule.

You can't look at divisions here, you have to look at individual teams. I think everyone agrees that if Towson goes 8-3 with losses to JMU, Delaware, and Morgan St. that they shouldn't be in the playoffs just because they share a confrerence with JMU. If Maine goes 8-3 and beats I-A Nebraska, I have a hard time not putting them in even if they don't win their division.

I can forsee a scenario, possibly this year, where five teams from the A10 are among the best 16 playoff eligible teams in the country. I am looking at individual teams. Even an 8-3 Towson would have beaten Villanova, UNH and WM and played 11 scholarship DI programs. They would deserve strong consideration for a playoff spot at 8-3.

It was barely OK that theyballowed four first round winners into the field last year from the A10????

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Please explain.

Delaware did not play all Division I schools (they played West Chester). They lost to 2 playoff bound teams (UNH and JMU) and a I-A (Navy). They beat one playoff-bound team (W&M, at home) "as well as their challenging A-10 schedule". Yet they made it into the playoffs with ease. Nobody ever thought to exclude them.

My only contention, if the 8-3 team last year was UNH instead of Delaware, they wouldn't have been selected. Had they lost to Rutgers and gone 8-3 last year (losing to W&M and UMass) they probably would have been sitting at home. Especially if they had a non-D-I win.

Since Delaware was that 4th team, they are given slack that other A-10 teams are not given, because they have great attendance, a great gameday, etc. Plus, they were defending champions.

Note also I didn't say Delaware didn't deserve to get in. I said it was "barely acceptable". I think it was better for Delaware to make the playoffs instead of Cal Poly. But you can't deny that Delaware didn't have and doesn't have the same threshold for inclusion that UNH does in the A-10. That's why 5 A-10 teams won't happen unless those 4th and 5th teams are JMU and Delaware. If the 4th and 5th teams are UNH and Towson, they're going to sit at home.

[89Hen]

I guess I didn't understand your comment then. It sounded like you were saying it was unacceptable for any conference to have four teams period. By winning all four first round games, only losing one game to a team outside of the A10, and winning the NC, I think the A10 proved not only was it acceptable, it was the absolutely correct decision last year.

[blukeys]

Answer: It wasn't OK then, and it was barely OK last year that they took 4 A-10 teams - and even then it was an extraordinary circumstance.

The "Gateway 4" came about when the I-AA playoff committee ignored their own standards and let WKU in the playoffs, stiffing a good Lehigh team. This despite WKU not playing all Division I competition and only having 1 good win on their schedule. They were, however, the defending I-AA champions, which gave them a trump card over 8-3 Lehigh, who played a better schedule.



In retrosopect I concur that Lehigh played a better schedule than WKU in '03. However hindsight is always 20/20. WKU was the 02 national champion and rightly or wrongly the Gateway was considered a tougher conference in '03 than the PL and so WKU got the benefit of the doubt. WKU did win it's opening game (Yes I know against an OVC team) I personally think that Lehigh's complaint vis a vis WKU is not as strong as it's case against Bethune - Cookman. The MEAC had not had the playoff success of either the Gateway or the Patriot League. IF your best team can't win a playoff game what is the point of adding a 2nd team from the same conference? The pick of B-C seems largely a result of trying to get a high attendance opening game between 2 Florida schools.

I think that Nova could have made a case to be a 5th A-10 team last year. After all they beat a PL playoff team that got a home game even though they weren't the league's auto bid. ;) ;) ;) :rolleyes: :rolleyes: