Summer playoff discussion: Conference bids

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Crazy talk before the season even starts, but we're bored in the summer. It seems reading through the prediction threads that several conferences think they have several bids possible for the playoffs this year:

CAA:
UMass, UNH, JMU, UD, and even Towson is on the radar.

Gateway:
UNI, YSU, and ISU or SIU

SoCon:
ASU, Furman, Wofford

BSC:
Montana, Montana St., and Portland St.

Even the OVC:
2 between Tenn St., UT-Martin and JSU

With all of the autobids, every year one or two conferences make a lot of noise. I'd say 3 years ago it was the A10 (CAA) with four bids and the NC winner, 2 years ago SoCon had 3 including the NC winner, and last year the Gateway's 3 bids all advanced past the first round.

Since not all conferences can be so strong every year, which conference is most likely to have the strongest case for the 2007 season?

EDIT: I know it's tough, but try to be objective and not a homer as much as possible.

[OL FU]

I don't think this is a year for the SoCon to get three in the playoffs. It could happen but ASU will have to lose once or maybe twice in the conference for the to occur. But I think you have the teams right.

CAA will get three based on the number of teams in the conference.

BSC - Two. Montana and some one elsexsmiley_wix

The real question maybe how to the non-auto-bid conferences do.

If the Big sky evens up and there is no 9-2 team, then they may not get a bid. GWFC, since the Dakotas are not eligible does it all rest on Cal-Poly. Can the MEAC (I know they get an AQ) produce two big winners. SC State has it tough with two BSC schools. Maybe Del STate and Hampton get in. It seems to me that the odds of the CAA getting 4 or the SoCon or BSC getting three is going to depend on how the other conferences play out.

[GannonFan]

I don't think this is a year for the SoCon to get three in the playoffs. It could happen but ASU will have to lose once or maybe twice in the conference for the to occur. But I think you have the teams right.

CAA will get three based on the number of teams in the conference.

BSC - Two. Montana and some one elsexsmiley_wix

The real question maybe how to the non-auto-bid conferences do.

If the Big sky evens up and there is no 9-2 team, then they may not get a bid. GWFC, since the Dakotas are not eligible does it all rest on Cal-Poly. Can the MEAC (I know they get an AQ) produce two big winners. SC State has it tough with two BSC schools. Maybe Del STate and Hampton get in. It seems to me that the odds of the CAA getting 4 or the SoCon or BSC getting three is going to depend on how the other conferences play out.


Nah - CAA only can count on maybe 2 bids as being automatic - anything after that will have to be due to merit. Could get 3, won't get any more than 4.

[MplsBison]

No.

Like he said, it's 3 based on the number of teams in the conference.

[GannonFan]

No.

Like he said, it's 3 based on the number of teams in the conference.

Gee, the selection committee must have missed your memo in 2003 when the same number of teams only resulted in 2 playoff participants (UD and UMass that year). And gee, look at 2005, again only 2 teams from the A10/CAA - how can that be, you say it's based on the number of teams in the conference? That's 50% of the time that the CAA only got 2 teams in even though the conference had 12 teams since 2003. Hmmm. Care to tell me how that happened then???? :p :p :p :p

[Maverick]

BSBison,
Based on your "extensive" knowledge of playoff selection, the size of the conference will determine how many get into the playoffs? If this knowledge is equal to what you have shone elsewhere on this board, then it is worth nothing.

So please explain your vast knowledge of the FCS playoff selection process!

Note: Damn GannonFan stole my reply before I could even get BSBison to respond!

xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[MplsBison]

We're talking about this season.

The years past mean squat.

[Maverick]

BSBison,
So you pulled that out of the same place as most of your posts on this board!

xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[GannonFan]

We're talking about this season.

The years past mean squat.

So this is the magical year when the CAA, which hasn't increased it size btw, is all of a sudden guaranteed a 3rd team in the playoffs? Wow, wonderful news!! I'm so happy. So much for the season and how the games shake out. Thank goodness we have someone so knowledgeable that we can put that baby to bed and not have to worry! I look forward to 3 CAA teams in the playoffs, nova and UMass both going to FBS with big fancy, state-paid stadiums to boot, and Fieldturf at the Rose Bowl by next year. So much to look forward to! :p :p :p :p :p

[Maverick]

BSBison,
So you pulled that out of the same place as most of your posts on this board!

xrotatehx xrotatehx xrotatehx xnodx xnodx xnodx

[OL FU]

Gee, the selection committee must have missed your memo in 2003 when the same number of teams only resulted in 2 playoff participants (UD and UMass that year). And gee, look at 2005, again only 2 teams from the A10/CAA - how can that be, you say it's based on the number of teams in the conference? That's 50% of the time that the CAA only got 2 teams in even though the conference had 12 teams since 2003. Hmmm. Care to tell me how that happened then???? :p :p :p :p

OK, I was not trying to discount the CAA having three good teams. but having 12 in the conference does not hurt. xsmiley_wix

[GannonFan]

OK, I was not trying to discount the CAA having three good teams. but having 12 in the conference does not hurt. xsmiley_wix

I dunno, you could say it does. The best the conference ever got in was 4 teams - that's only 1/3 of the conference. Most of the time it's either 2 or 3. Only getting 2 out of 12 in is 1/6 or just about 1 team out of an 8 team conference. Even getting 3 out of 12 isn't all that significant - that would still be less than 2 teams from the Gateway this year. When the Gateway got 4 teams in a few years ago that was 50% of that conference. Imagine the outcry if the CAA got just 5 teams in, let alone 6? There was criticism when the CAA got 4 in. Just being a larger conference does not really guarantee anything - well, maybe it guarantee's 2 bids, as long as the conference remains as strong as it is.

[OL FU]

I dunno, you could say it does. The best the conference ever got in was 4 teams - that's only 1/3 of the conference. Most of the time it's either 2 or 3. Only getting 2 out of 12 in is 1/6 or just about 1 team out of an 8 team conference. Even getting 3 out of 12 isn't all that significant - that would still be less than 2 teams from the Gateway this year. When the Gateway got 4 teams in a few years ago that was 50% of that conference. Imagine the outcry if the CAA got just 5 teams in, let alone 6? There was criticism when the CAA got 4 in. Just being a larger conference does not really guarantee anything - well, maybe it guarantee's 2 bids, as long as the conference remains as strong as it is.

Remind me not to pay the CAA any more compliments:p xlolx

[Maverick]

It can also mean that if the conference is stronger that it can result in limiting it to 2 teams due to the rigors and dangers of conference schedule.

[OL FU]

I do believe in the years that the CAA is very strong that the number of teams hurts. There might actually have been years that the CAA should have had an extra team in the playoffs and didn't get it simply because of the appearance of 4 or 5 teams in the playoffs. However, I think having 12 generally helps get three. Also, the fact that you won't play every team can help or hurt. It works different ways different years ( One reason I don't want the SoCon to have more than 9 football playing teams). The only way having 12 teams hurts getting three in would be those rare years where the best teams play each other and beat each other up. Most years, a top team of the CAA will miss playing another top team of the CAA.

[OL FU]

But enough of the CAAxrolleyesx :p

I still think the number of teams from a conference will be significantly dependant upon the number of good teams from non-AQ conferences or from the conferences that one would not expect to get two bids ( MEAC, Patriot (considering last year) OVC).

[Cocky]

EIU and Tenn State will be in the OVC mix. We have 5 quality teams for sure (maybe more) this year.

[Maverick]

What about UT-Martin? Jax State? EKU? Are those the others you didn't mention?

[RabidRabbit]

I don't think this is a year for the SoCon to get three in the playoffs. It could happen but ASU will have to lose once or maybe twice in the conference for the to occur. But I think you have the teams right.

CAA will get three based on the number of teams in the conference.

BSC - Two. Montana and some one elsexsmiley_wix

The real question maybe how to the non-auto-bid conferences do.

If the Big sky evens up and there is no 9-2 team, then they may not get a bid. GWFC, since the Dakotas are not eligible does it all rest on Cal-Poly. Answer: NO, UC-Davis eligible this year.Can the MEAC (I know they get an AQ) produce two big winners. SC State has it tough with two BSC schools. Maybe Del STate and Hampton get in. It seems to me that the odds of the CAA getting 4 or the SoCon or BSC getting three is going to depend on how the other conferences play out.

Likewise, with Gateway at 7, if Patriot League does well OOC, and splits title, we've seen two selected there. And Southland with Sam Houston & McNeese have a shot, especially if win vs GWFC or Big Sky OOC's.

[ekufbfan]

What about UT-Martin? Jax State? EKU? Are those the others you didn't mention?


EKU? I think we have the players to get it done and the fans who are starved for EKU to return to the national scene. Unfortunately I don't think we have a coach who can make it happen. I hope I am wrong.

[FlyYtown]

Gateway
UNI
YSU
[SIU-ILSU-WIU--->Battle for 3rd Spot]

[Tailbone]

It can also mean that if the conference is stronger that it can result in limiting it to 2 teams due to the rigors and dangers of conference schedule.

Why is this argument pooh-poohed whenever applied to the Big Sky conference? xrolleyesx

[GannonFan]

Why is this argument pooh-poohed whenever applied to the Big Sky conference? xrolleyesx

Probably because it is dependent on the conference being strong. :p

[Tailbone]

Probably because it is dependent on the conference being strong. :p

That's the point.
There are those who suggest that the BSC is Montana and "other guys" and that the quality of of competition is less than other conferences - but NAU/McNeese, EWU/SIU, MSU/Furman suggest otherwise.

Consistency may be an issue (as suggested by the afore mentioned examples) but "on any given saturday" the BSC teams can prove to be as good (or better) than those of other conferences.

[GannonFan]

That's the point.
There are those who suggest that the BSC is Montana and "other guys" and that the quality of of competition is less than other conferences - but NAU/McNeese, EWU/SIU, MSU/Furman suggest otherwise.

Consistency may be an issue (as suggested by the afore mentioned examples) but "on any given saturday" the BSC teams can prove to be as good (or better) than those of other conferences.

The problem is, those are all of the examples you have going back several years - that's not a whole lot of examples. And for the first two, if you include the examples of NAU/Fla Atlantic and EWU/SHSU the following week then even those examples start to suffer. That hole that Idaho and Boise St left when they vacated the conference (when it was strong) still has to be filled.

[Saint3333]

I believe the SoCon could get three in if Wofford can beat Furman or ASU. But Wofford has 3 tough games in a row @NCSU, ASU, @ Furman. If they lose all three there is no room for error and I believe they'll slip up and lose one of these three games: @ Citadel, @ UTC, GSU.

If Wofford beats Furman I believe both of them will finish 8-3 and both will be in the playoffs.

[89Hen]

That's the point.
There are those who suggest that the BSC is Montana and "other guys" and that the quality of of competition is less than other conferences - but NAU/McNeese, EWU/SIU, MSU/Furman suggest otherwise.
Good point, and I think a third bid can happen, but IMO is unlikely.

[GOKATS]

I don't think this is a year for the SoCon to get three in the playoffs. It could happen but ASU will have to lose once or maybe twice in the conference for the to occur. But I think you have the teams right.

CAA will get three based on the number of teams in the conference.

BSC - Two. Montana and some one elsexsmiley_wix

The real question maybe how to the non-auto-bid conferences do.

If the Big sky evens up and there is no 9-2 team, then they may not get a bid. GWFC, since the Dakotas are not eligible does it all rest on Cal-Poly. Can the MEAC (I know they get an AQ) produce two big winners. SC State has it tough with two BSC schools. Maybe Del STate and Hampton get in. It seems to me that the odds of the CAA getting 4 or the SoCon or BSC getting three is going to depend on how the other conferences play out.

Ya kinda lost me here. First you say the Big Sky will get two and then you say they might not get any- the BSC is an auto-bid conference.

[eagle1]

EASTCOAST BIAS!!!xnodx

Some of you need to get out west of the Mississippi more. The Big Sky Conference will get two teams in the playoffs for sure and possible three. I think that Montana and either EWU or PSU will get in or even both. Go Eagles!!!

[UncleSam]

I do believe in the years that the CAA is very strong that the number of teams hurts. There might actually have been years that the CAA should have had an extra team in the playoffs and didn't get it simply because of the appearance of 4 or 5 teams in the playoffs.


There's no 'might' about it - 2001

Hofstra - 9-2
Maine - 8-2
W&M - 8-3
Villanova - 8-3
URI - 8-3

Hofstra, Maine and W&M received playoff bids

Nova and URI did not

[UncleSam]

EASTCOAST BIAS!!!xnodx

Some of you need to get out west of the Mississippi more. The Big Sky Conference will get two teams in the playoffs for sure and possible three. I think that Montana and either EWU or PSU will get in or even both. Go Eagles!!!


but will any BSC school, other than Montana, win a playoff game???

[89Hen]

EASTCOAST BIAS!!!xnodx

Some of you need to get out west of the Mississippi more. The Big Sky Conference will get two teams in the playoffs for sure and possible three. I think that Montana and either EWU or PSU will get in or even both. Go Eagles!!!
Who was saying they'd get only the auto? xconfusedx

[lucchesicourt]

So, some think the only one in the GWFC that has a playoff chance is Cal Poly. Hmmm, I guess some may be overlooking UCD. That's good. Yeah, I know we lost a few high profile non schollie recruits Kays, Vallejo, and Grant, But the QB and receiver positions I do not believe we are worried about. . We have done VERY well at these postions whether schollie or non schollie thrpughout the past 30+ years. I think we will be improved over last year as we have added, I believe, a few a RB's who may be very good. We'll see. If they are as good as they they are suppose to be, it will make our passing game that much better.

[OL FU]

Ya kinda lost me here. First you say the Big Sky will get two and then you say they might not get any- the BSC is an auto-bid conference.


I lost me too. I meant to say the Big South instead of Big Sky.

My error

[Tailbone]

The problem is, those are all of the examples you have going back several years - that's not a whole lot of examples.

Not true.
I only named those 3, but last year's PSU team was VERY good, and I think they would have done some damage even on the road.



And for the first two, if you include the examples of NAU/Fla Atlantic and EWU/SHSU the following week then even those examples start to suffer.

That was addressed by the consistency comment.
BTW, re: consistency.....MSU is a prime example of how some things can go wrong for a competetive team - Beat Colo, lost to Chadron, managed to get to the play-offs and beat the SoCon runner-up......doesn't mean MSU is/was a bad team, just inconsistent. I think the top half of the BSC compares favorably with the top half of any FCS conference.


That hole that Idaho and Boise St left when they vacated the conference (when it was strong) still has to be filled.

I agree. The conference isn't as strong as it once was....doesn't make it a bad or weak conference. However, current conference leadership seems hell-bent on making the BSC a joke.