Parity?

[Professor Chaos]

Lots of talk recently about how the FCS is a collection of a few schools with true national championship aspirations and a while bunch of schools that have no shot. So I wanted to compare parity in the FCS vs the FBS. Since the college football playoff is 4 teams I looked at FCS teams that have made the semis since 2014 (the first year of the college football playoff).

Here's the FCS list:
NDSU (x6)
JMU (x3)
SHSU (x3)
EWU (x2)
SDSU (×2)
Illinois St
JSU
Maine
Montana St
Richmond
UNH
Weber St
YSU

13 teams, 5 of which with multiple appearances in the semis.

Now compare that with the College Football Playoff in the same time period:
Alabama (x5)
Clemson (x5)
Oklahoma (x4)
Ohio St (x3)
Florida St
Georgia
LSU
Michigan St
Notre Dame
Oregon
Washington

11 total teams with 4 that have made it multiple times.

So, despite the fact that NDSU has won the title in 4 (maybe 5) of those 6 years, is there more parity in the FCS compared to the FBS? I'd say the data says yes at least in the CFP era (last 6 years).

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Here's the difference between the FCS and FBS:

You can put elite coaches like Nick Saban in 1 of about 15-20 programs and he still wins national championships (he won LSU's last title 16 years ago). Does anyone think Matt Entz could be 14-0 at any of this year's quarter-finalists other than JMU?

Up until 2013 there were two teams with undefeated IAA/FCS seasons: 1989 Georgia Southern and 1996 Marshall. The first team had (I'd argue) one of the best head coaches at any level and the second was just a crazy-talented juggernaut. NDSU is now on the verge of doing that with 3 consecutive head coaches.

[NDSUtk]

Here's the difference between the FCS and FBS:

You can put elite coaches like Nick Saban in 1 of about 15-20 programs and he still wins national championships (he won LSU's last title 16 years ago). Does anyone think Matt Entz could be 14-0 at any of this year's quarter-finalists other than JMU?

Up until 2013 there were two teams with undefeated IAA/FCS seasons: 1989 Georgia Southern and 1996 Marshall. The first team had (I'd argue) one of the best head coaches at any level and the second was just a crazy-talented juggernaut. NDSU is now on the verge of doing that with 3 consecutive head coaches.That last part is amazing. Never knew that, thanks for the insight.

[Son of Eli]

Lots of talk recently about how the FCS is a collection of a few schools with true national championship aspirations and a while bunch of schools that have no shot. So I wanted to compare parity in the FCS vs the FBS. Since the college football playoff is 4 teams I looked at FCS teams that have made the semis since 2014 (the first year of the college football playoff).

Here's the FCS list:
NDSU (x6)
JMU (x3)
SHSU (x3)
EWU (x2)
SDSU (×2)
Illinois St
JSU
Maine
Montana St
Richmond
UNH
Weber St
YSU

).

For those who say the Ivy League doesn’t play anybody they are 4-1 against the teams listed above since 2014 as follows:

Yale 2-0 against Maine (wins in 2015 and 2018)
Yale 1-0 against Richmond (win 2019)
Dartmouth 1-1 against New Hampshire ( loss in 2014, win in 2016)

[Professor Chaos]

Here's the difference between the FCS and FBS:

You can put elite coaches like Nick Saban in 1 of about 15-20 programs and he still wins national championships (he won LSU's last title 16 years ago). Does anyone think Matt Entz could be 14-0 at any of this year's quarter-finalists other than JMU?

Up until 2013 there were two teams with undefeated IAA/FCS seasons: 1989 Georgia Southern and 1996 Marshall. The first team had (I'd argue) one of the best head coaches at any level and the second was just a crazy-talented juggernaut. NDSU is now on the verge of doing that with 3 consecutive head coaches.
I don't think you're wrong about Entz but I don't necessarily agree that Saban could go to a place like Iowa and win titles.

I just think it's interesting that there has been more variety in the FCS final four than there has been in the FBS version since the FBS started their playoff. The general perception is that it's NDSU, JMU, and a bunch of also rans which, while it may turn out accurate this year, is not all that accurate long term IMO.

[BisonBacker]

I don't think you're wrong about Entz but I don't necessarily agree that Saban could go to a place like Iowa and win titles.

I just think it's interesting that there has been more variety in the FCS final four than there has been in the FBS version since the FBS started their playoff. The general perception is that it's NDSU, JMU, and a bunch of also rans which, while it may turn out accurate this year, is not all that accurate long term IMO.

I don't know about that Saban comment and not being successful at other schools. How many kids go to a school for football because of the coach? You get a big name coach like Saban and I think kids will follow him. Now if he was to go somewhere like Iowa (I know he's not it's just an example) and he started having multiple mediocre seasons then the pipeline to good talent may be closed but I do think kids go where they think they can get the best coaching regardless of school. Especially if they think they're going to play after college.

[uofmman1122]

Looks pretty comparable when you look at the championship, with FBS having slightly more parity in the champions:

Championship appearances

FCS:

NDSU (x4)
JMU (x2)
EWU
ISUr
JSU
YSU

FBS:
Alabama (x4)
Clemson (x3)
Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia

So had Oklahoma knocked off Clemson in 2016, it would be exactly the same situation as FCS.

Champions

FCS:
NDSU (x4)
JMU

FBS:
Alabama (x2)
Clemson (x2)
Ohio State

[Professor Chaos]

I don't know about that Saban comment and not being successful at other schools. How many kids go to a school for football because of the coach? You get a big name coach like Saban and I think kids will follow him. Now if he was to go somewhere like Iowa (I know he's not it's just an example) and he started having multiple mediocre seasons then the pipeline to good talent may be closed but I do think kids go where they think they can get the best coaching regardless of school. Especially if they think they're going to play after college.
I'm not saying he wouldn't have success there. I don't think he'd win any titles there.


Looks pretty comparable when you look at the championship, with FBS having slightly more parity in the champions:

Championship appearances

FCS:

NDSU (x4)
JMU (x2)
EWU
ISUr
JSU
YSU

FBS:
Alabama (x4)
Clemson (x3)
Ohio State
Oregon
Georgia

So had Oklahoma knocked off Clemson in 2016, it would be exactly the same situation as FCS.

Champions

FCS:
NDSU (x4)
JMU

FBS:
Alabama (x2)
Clemson (x2)
Ohio State
Yeah, all in all it's not that different between the two subdivisions (except for the championships) but I think that goes to show there isn't any more parity in FBS than there is in the FCS and I think that's lost on some people on here who lament how hard it is to compete with programs like NDSU and JMU.

[uofmman1122]

Yeah, all in all it's not that different between the two subdivisions (except for the championships) but I think that goes to show there isn't any more parity in FBS than there is in the FCS and I think that's lost on some people on here who lament how hard it is to compete with programs like NDSU and JMU.
I think to a point, they're similar, but if things go chalk this year, NDSU will have 5 of the last 6 titles, while no one in FBS will have more than 2 of the last 6.

That's not a bad thing that's NDSU's (or JMU's) fault, but the people lamenting the inability to compete at the top aren't necessarily wrong.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm not saying he wouldn't have success there. I don't think he'd win any titles there.


Yeah, all in all it's not that different between the two subdivisions (except for the championships) but I think that goes to show there isn't any more parity in FBS than there is in the FCS and I think that's lost on some people on here who lament how hard it is to compete with programs like NDSU and JMU.

It clearly is extremely hard to compete with NDSU and JMU. The problem is the teams in the MVFC and CAA conferences can really no longer compete with with either of them. That's not the case in FBS with Alabama or Ohio State. Auburn, LSU and Florida have caused Saban and the Tide plenty of headaches over the years. Ohio State always has trouble with Penn State and has a history of blowing a game or two. Only Clemson has no challengers and that's because Florida State, Virginia Tech and Miami are struggling right now. The ACC is similar to where it was when Florida State entered it in the early 90's. The Seminoles went 3-4 years before the lost their first conference game (a Thursday night classic at Virginia).

FBS is very much dependent on the head coach and how well they jive with the alumni/fanbase and the administration. In FCS there's a lot less BS to deal with. A coach can basically be faceless and succeed at a high level if he's at a program with a relatively high ceiling NDSU and JMU are basically on auto-pilot right now. However, the second Dabo or Saban leave anythings possible. Between Gene Stallings and Saban there were a lot of ups and downs in Tuscaloosa. Before Dabo "Clemsoning" was a verb. USC and Notre Dame are two elite programs that have always been extremely coach dependent. Tons of peaks and valleys with both programs.

[JacksFan40]

I don't think you're wrong about Entz but I don't necessarily agree that Saban could go to a place like Iowa and win titles.

I just think it's interesting that there has been more variety in the FCS final four than there has been in the FBS version since the FBS started their playoff. The general perception is that it's NDSU, JMU, and a bunch of also rans which, while it may turn out accurate this year, is not all that accurate long term IMO.
I guarantee Saban would win at Iowa. If Kirk Ferentz can have them as a 8-10 win team every year Saban can exceed that easily.

[JacksFan40]

The difference between the FCS and FBS is that the FBS is ran by a group of about 3-4 teams, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and you could probably put Oklahoma in there as well. The FCS is ran by NDSU, with JMU popping in occasionally. Even this year we might see a new team in LSU win the CFP, while the FCS is guaranteed to at least have NDSU in the title game.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I guarantee Saban would win at Iowa. If Kirk Ferentz can have them as a 8-10 win team every year Saban can exceed that easily.

He'd do a bit better than Ferentz but he's not getting boatloads of recruits from the deep south to follow him to Iowa City. Smart, Malzahn, Eddie O, Mullen etc. give those kids a perfectly good alternative to stay close to home and play SEC football.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The difference between the FCS and FBS is that the FBS is ran by a group of about 3-4 teams, Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and you could probably put Oklahoma in there as well. The FCS is ran by NDSU, with JMU popping in occasionally. Even this year we might see a new team in LSU win the CFP, while the FCS is guaranteed to at least have NDSU in the title game.

Ohio State has two titles since 1970 and Oklahoma hasn't won one in 20 years. Those are consistent forces more in line with a Montana or Furman. What NDSU is doing this decade is simply absurd. The only comparison is Mount Union imo.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I don't think you're wrong about Entz but I don't necessarily agree that Saban could go to a place like Iowa and win titles.

I just think it's interesting that there has been more variety in the FCS final four than there has been in the FBS version since the FBS started their playoff. The general perception is that it's NDSU, JMU, and a bunch of also rans which, while it may turn out accurate this year, is not all that accurate long term IMO.

I wasn't including Iowa when I said top 15-20 programs.

I will agree that without NDSU and JMU the FCS without a doubt has more parity than the FBS, but there is just no FBS analogue to JMU and NDSU. No FBS program is going to make 2 internal hires like NDSU is and keep chugging or win 35-straight games.

[uni88]

Ohio State has two titles since 1970 and Oklahoma hasn't won one in 20 years. Those are consistent forces more in line with a Montana or Furman. What NDSU is doing this decade is simply absurd. The only comparison is Mount Union imo.Whitewater = Mt Union

Didn't Saban coach at Michigan State? How many national championships did he win there?

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[NDSUtk]

I wasn't including Iowa when I said top 15-20 programs.

I will agree that without NDSU and JMU the FCS without a doubt has more parity than the FBS, but there is just no FBS analogue to JMU and NDSU. No FBS program is going to make 2 internal hires like NDSU is and keep chugging or win 35-straight games.Can always pull a MIAC in D3 and vote NDSU and JMU out! That is still the most absurd thing I've heard of in college sports to vote a program out of the conference because they are too good.

[JacksFan40]

He'd do a bit better than Ferentz but he's not getting boatloads of recruits from the deep south to follow him to Iowa City. Smart, Malzahn, Eddie O, Mullen etc. give those kids a perfectly good alternative to stay close to home and play SEC football.
If Saban got Iowa winning he could recruit the South. Plus Iowa could recruit the Midwest easily and probably do well in the Northeast.

[JacksFan40]

Whitewater = Mt Union

Didn't Saban coach at Michigan State? How many national championships did he win there?

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
Saban struggled at Michigan State until his final year when they went 9-2 and won the Citrus Bowl. Had he stayed longer he would’ve had more success there.

[Sycamore62]

Here's the difference between the FCS and FBS:

You can put elite coaches like Nick Saban in 1 of about 15-20 programs and he still wins national championships (he won LSU's last title 16 years ago). Does anyone think Matt Entz could be 14-0 at any of this year's quarter-finalists other than JMU?

Up until 2013 there were two teams with undefeated IAA/FCS seasons: 1989 Georgia Southern and 1996 Marshall. The first team had (I'd argue) one of the best head coaches at any level and the second was just a crazy-talented juggernaut. NDSU is now on the verge of doing that with 3 consecutive head coaches.

for people disagreeing with the Saban part:
Alabama
Auburn
LSU
Florida
Florida State
Miami
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Texas
Oklahoma State
Nebraska (maybe)
USC
Oregon
Penn State
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Georgia
Louisville (with hookers)
Wisconsin
Maybe Ole Miss and Texas A&M
Maybe Baylor and TCU
Maybe Stanford and Washington

[UNHWildcat18]

UNH is x2 xdrunkyx

but yeah, its crazy how at all levels there isn't a lot of parity

[PAllen]

Whitewater = Mt Union

Didn't Saban coach at Michigan State? How many national championships did he win there?

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He did pretty well at Toledo.

[AmsterBison]

From 2000-2011, 10 different teams won NCs: NDSU, Eastern Washington, Villanova, Richmond, Appalachian State, James Madison, Delaware, Western Kentucky, Montana,Georgia Southern
From 2000-2011, 8 different runner-ups there were also Delaware, SHSU, Montana, Massachusetts, Northern Iowa, Colgate, McNeese State, Furman

NDSU's dominance is really the only thing that has changed (and NDSU had to win several squeakers in this run.) Still, the runner-up has been different every single year since the end of the 2011 season and 15 different teams have made the semis.

EDIT: UNI did NOT win a national championship... which I knew because I like to mention it to their fanbase.

[MSUBobcat]

UNH is x2 xdrunkyx

but yeah, its crazy how at all levels there isn't a lot of parity

UNH's only semifinal since 2014 was in 2014. I think you're including 2013 which was outside his purview, selected because it was the first year of the CFP and thus the first year FBS had true "semifinalists".

[JayJ79]

From 2000-2011, 10 different teams won NCs: NDSU, Eastern Washington, Villanova, Richmond, Appalachian State, Northern Iowa, James Madison, Delaware, Western Kentucky, Montana,Georgia Southern

damn, I wish someone would have told us.

But anyway, as far as parity, if one team has won 5 of 6 or 6 of 7 or whatever it has been for championships, that's not parity. That's just boring.

[Sycamore62]

Every time I think that I wish someone other than NDSU i go through the list of teams that I dont hate and that team didnt make the playoffs again.

[AmsterBison]

damn, I wish someone would have told us.

But anyway, as far as parity, if one team has won 5 of 6 or 6 of 7 or whatever it has been for championships, that's not parity. That's just boring.

Fixed the post. There hasn't been much parity this decade but only because of NDSU - and similar runs by NDSU in the past have come to an end unexpectedly and abruptly.

[Silenoz]

So, parity in the higher echelons, but absolutely zero parity at the top.

Like DIII.

[Reign of Terrier]

The comparison of OP is a little misguided because a lot of time the variation you can expect will be who gets placed where in a bracket. In the CFP for FBS, the top 4 are chosen, not directly won on the field. A better way of comparing the parity of FCS and FBS using semifinal metrics would thus be comparing the variation in the top 4 seeds, not in the actual field, if that makes sense.

To make the point a little more clear, if you have NDSU and JMU as two "locks" for the semis, who gets those other two spots has little to do with rank-order ability as much as other factors as geography/seeding/etc. For example, Sam Houston State got farther in the playoffs than Wofford in both 2012 and 2017, both lost to NDSU, but on at least one of those occasions Wofford played a closer game. If you're heuristic is "who got farther" to determine, who's better, than obvious SHSU looks better, but if you're looking at the actual performance of the field, it's much messier.

I'm not saying this as part of usual socon-dick-measuring shtick: you can find lots of other examples of this in every bracket every year for different teams.

[cx500d]

...I'm not saying this as part of usual socon-dick-measuring shtick....

good, because we would have to call you Tiny Terrier

[Derby City Duke]

good, because we would have to call you Tiny Terrier

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to cx500d again.