Odds to win the FCS title

[Professor Chaos]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1202643168526815233

Bulletin board material for pretty much anyone outside of Fargo or Harrisonburg. The wise guys see this year's playoffs as a two horse only race it appears.

[Redbird 4th & short]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1202643168526815233

Bulletin board material for pretty much anyone outside of Fargo or Harrisonburg. The wise guys see this year's playoffs as a two horse only race it appears.
so we go into week 12 YSU game as a very probable top 8 seed if we win .. we come out of YSU and get told we are one of the last 4 in .. then we have a good game against SEMO and we bounce right back up to #9.

Not that these are all the same sources, but it's still kind of amazing how we have bounced around so much in course of 2 or 3 games.

[Tazman2664]

Well, first, you were the last 4 in because of your record, 9-4. In looking at all the other records, it is hard to take a 9-4 team above say a 10-3 or 11-2 team unless you have some impressive wins or they have some bad losses. Thus, at 9-4 you probably were not going to be considered in the top 16. You probably were like #21 real easy, probably no question you were in, in a 24 team field. So talk about the lat 4 in probably just words that get used in these cases.

Then when you look at the possibilities, there are the top 6 teams (NDSU, JMU, Weber, Sac, Mont & Mont. St.) that are going to be the top 6. Now to bridge that gap you have to take a look at the conference (MV the far and away the best, not even close) and a look at the wins and losses. SDSU creeps in there because they played NDSU real well but lost and they played MN real well but lost, so I can see someone thinking they could creep into the top 5 or 6. The issue I have with them is the loss at the end of the season to SD. Not sure with that loss I would have them in the top 6. But in any case, after the top 6 (or based on these states) or 7 then you have to look at what is left. And a +5500 really doesn't say anything for your chances. If you look at the winner of your game ISU and UCA, is not even picked to be in the top 8 and the winner will be in the last 8 still in. So the fact that you are 9th is just a fact that you are the best to the last 8 teams still in it.

To be honest, I think this proves the whole point that fielding even a 16 team playoff field isn't an appetizing thing. There are 3 teams that they believe have zero chance of winning it and several others that will only have a chance if there is a bus crash of their opposing teams for 2 weeks straight and the same for the other side of the bracket.

[ming01]

So looks like they have ISU beating UCA

[caribbeanhen]

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1202643168526815233

Bulletin board material for pretty much anyone outside of Fargo or Harrisonburg. The wise guys see this year's playoffs as a two horse only race it appears.

bulletin board material? more like old sad news

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

bulletin board material? more like old sad news

Absolutely! It's simply the sad reality of FCS right now. Those that were hoping NDSU would cause other programs to raise the bar have been mistaken. In reality, the chasm between NDSU and the rest of the FCS/MVFC is growing.

[Thumper 76]

Absolutely! It's simply the sad reality of FCS right now. Those that were hoping NDSU would cause other programs to raise the bar have been mistaken. In reality, the chasm between NDSU and the rest of the FCS/MVFC is growing.

Yeah, nobody has upped their game in the past decade at all......./s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Ivytalk]

I hear that Perfesser Kaos is about to launch a hostile takeover bid for 5Dimes.

[Professor Chaos]

I hear that Perfesser Kaos is about to launch a hostile takeover bid for 5Dimes.
https://media.giphy.com/media/l2SpQBMIp9N2JAHh6/giphy.gif

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Yeah, nobody has upped their game in the past decade at all......./s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JMU is the only program to really make a run at the Bison.

[skinny_uncle]

So looks like they have ISU beating UCA

Prophetic.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Well, first, you were the last 4 in because of your record, 9-4. In looking at all the other records, it is hard to take a 9-4 team above say a 10-3 or 11-2 team unless you have some impressive wins or they have some bad losses. Thus, at 9-4 you probably were not going to be considered in the top 16. You probably were like #21 real easy, probably no question you were in, in a 24 team field. So talk about the lat 4 in probably just words that get used in these cases.

Then when you look at the possibilities, there are the top 6 teams (NDSU, JMU, Weber, Sac, Mont & Mont. St.) that are going to be the top 6. Now to bridge that gap you have to take a look at the conference (MV the far and away the best, not even close) and a look at the wins and losses. SDSU creeps in there because they played NDSU real well but lost and they played MN real well but lost, so I can see someone thinking they could creep into the top 5 or 6. The issue I have with them is the loss at the end of the season to SD. Not sure with that loss I would have them in the top 6. But in any case, after the top 6 (or based on these states) or 7 then you have to look at what is left. And a +5500 really doesn't say anything for your chances. If you look at the winner of your game ISU and UCA, is not even picked to be in the top 8 and the winner will be in the last 8 still in. So the fact that you are 9th is just a fact that you are the best to the last 8 teams still in it.

To be honest, I think this proves the whole point that fielding even a 16 team playoff field isn't an appetizing thing. There are 3 teams that they believe have zero chance of winning it and several others that will only have a chance if there is a bus crash of their opposing teams for 2 weeks straight and the same for the other side of the bracket.
i'm only saying the swings of opinion about ISUr are so extreme week to week. It really depends on who we play and whether we match up well or not. I felt good about our match ups with SEMO and UCA .. not feeling so good about NDSU. They know us and our run game and our defense. Going to be a tougher challenge to play up to their level.

[ElCid]

i'm only saying the swings of opinion about ISUr are so extreme week to week. It really depends on who we play and whether we match up well or not. I felt good about our match ups with SEMO and UCA .. not feeling so good about NDSU. They know us and our run game and our defense. Going to be a tougher challenge to play up to their level.

Run it up the middle and don't pass. LOL.

[Professor Chaos]

Run it up the middle and don't pass. LOL.
This may sound too simple but it is 100% true.

[fencer24]

JMU is the only program to really make a run at the Bison.

Think the Bobcats may be peaking at just the right time.

[BisonBacker]

Think the Bobcats may be peaking at just the right time.
They have to get past AP next week. Quite honestly before tonights game I wouldn't have said that but watching that game your guys better be worried about next week first. That won't be a cakewalk.

[Redbird 4th & short]

They have to get past AP next week. Quite honestly before tonights game I wouldn't have said that but watching that game your guys better be worried about next week first. That won't be a cakewalk.
after we handled SEMO, I assumed Sac St would beat APU for sure .. I would be wrong.

[JSUSoutherner]

I knew APSU was good....

But I didn't expect them to completely dismantle Sac State.

[100%GRIZ]

JMU is the only program to really make a run at the Bison.
Until this year. I may be blowing a lot of steam here but watch out for Montana and a healthy Sneed. He was hurt in the first half of the Sac State game & is now close to totally healthy, thus the improvement. Also keeps the defense off the field! Just my 2 sense!

[TennBison]

JMU is the only program to really make a run at the Bison.

JMU might be the only team to really step up to try to improve their whole program across the board like NDSU would be a better way to put it. But sadly I have to say that right at this moment, I think JMU is playing better than NDSU. NDSU has won lets say 2/3 of their games this year by just flat out being better. The other 1/3 fall into a category of NDSU was still better but the other team was still pretty good all the way to NDSU was just as good but took advantage of the other teams mistakes (both coaching and on field player). NDSU and JMU are probably a wash in pure physical talent (NDSU might get the edge if there is any) but JMU seems to have been playing much more consistent all year with no one spot that seems to be a potential downfall for them. 3-4 teams have given NDSU problems with their up the middle running this year, that could be our downfall if there is one.

[Tazman2664]

Here is what is left:

Odds to win the #FCS (https://twitter.com/hashtag/FCS?src=hash) title:
1. NDSU -130
2. JMU +185
3. Weber +1700
5. Mont +2350
7. Mont St +6600
8. UNI +15000
9. ISU +55000
13. APSU +165000

Top teams that are out:
4. Sac St +2300
6. SDSU +3500

Montana St. looks to have the easiest game, with NDSU and JMU looking to have the next easiest games. I am thinking NDSU, JMU, Weber St. and Montana St. will be the winners next weekend. The Montana v Weber St, game will be the class act next weekend and I picked Weber St. only because they are at home. But I do still have NDSU v JMU for the title.

[GreatGreatGreat]

Here is what is left:

Odds to win the #FCS (https://twitter.com/hashtag/FCS?src=hash) title:
1. NDSU -130
2. JMU +185
3. Weber +1700
5. Mont +2350
7. Mont St +6600
8. UNI +15000
9. ISU +55000
13. APSU +165000 (tel:+165000)

Top teams that are out:
4. Sac St +2300
6. SDSU +3500

Montana St. looks to have the easiest game, with NDSU and JMU looking to have the next easiest games. I am thinking NDSU, JMU, Weber St. and Montana St. will be the winners next weekend. The Montana v Weber St, game will be the class act next weekend and I picked Weber St. only because they are at home. But I do still have NDSU v JMU for the title.
Montana is the Jeckyl and Hyde team this year. When playing well they may be the most dangerous team in the Big Sky. When they play bad... well see @Sac and @Mt State. Unfortunately I don’t trust the offensive attack of Mt State and Weber to challenge JMU or NDSU this season.

[grizband]

Here is what is left:

Odds to win the #FCS (https://twitter.com/hashtag/FCS?src=hash) title:
1. NDSU -130
2. JMU +185
3. Weber +1700
5. Mont +2350
7. Mont St +6600
8. UNI +15000
9. ISU +55000
13. APSU +165000

Top teams that are out:
4. Sac St +2300
6. SDSU +3500

Montana St. looks to have the easiest game, with NDSU and JMU looking to have the next easiest games. I am thinking NDSU, JMU, Weber St. and Montana St. will be the winners next weekend. The Montana v Weber St, game will be the class act next weekend and I picked Weber St. only because they are at home. But I do still have NDSU v JMU for the title.


Montana is the Jeckyl and Hyde team this year. When playing well they may be the most dangerous team in the Big Sky. When they play bad... well see @Sac and @Mt State. Unfortunately I don’t trust the offensive attack of Mt State and Weber to challenge JMU or NDSU this season.
This is a true assessment of the 2019 Griz. Here's an interesting statistic from their first 13 games: none have been decided by single digits. The season opening win against South Dakota was a margin of 14 points, the closest game Montana has played yet this season.

[Professor Chaos]

A couple interesting stat trends I've noticed from the 8 remaining teams:
1) All of them have a turnover margin on the year of +6 or better which puts all of them in the top 30 in the FCS in that category. Not surprisingly if you tend to win the turnover battle you tend to win games.
2) Only one remaining team (Montana) is in the top 40 in the FCS in passing yards per game. In fact 5 of the 8 remaining teams are ranked 79th or lower in the FCS in passing yards per game... it appears that run predicated offenses are having the most success this year.

[ElCid]

A couple interesting stat trends I've noticed from the 8 remaining teams:
1) All of them have a turnover margin on the year of +6 or better which puts all of them in the top 30 in the FCS in that category. Not surprisingly if you tend to win the turnover battle you tend to win games.
2) Only one remaining team (Montana) is in the top 40 in the FCS in passing yards per game. In fact 5 of the 8 remaining teams are ranked 79th or lower in the FCS in passing yards per game... it appears that run predicated offenses are having the most success this year.


As it should be.:D

[LetsGoPeay]

A couple interesting stat trends I've noticed from the 8 remaining teams:
1) All of them have a turnover margin on the year of +6 or better which puts all of them in the top 30 in the FCS in that category. Not surprisingly if you tend to win the turnover battle you tend to win games.
2) Only one remaining team (Montana) is in the top 40 in the FCS in passing yards per game. In fact 5 of the 8 remaining teams are ranked 79th or lower in the FCS in passing yards per game... it appears that run predicated offenses are having the most success this year.

APSU is 41st in passing ( 210 ypg ) . . . 24th in rushing ( 192 ypg )

Is that the most balanced attack left in the field?

[Professor Chaos]

APSU is 41st in passing ( 210 ypg ) . . . 24th in rushing ( 192 ypg )

Is that the most balanced attack left in the field?
I've got Austin Peay as passing for 242.6 per game (which I'm pulling from the NCAA's stats website). If they were at 210 they'd be the closest to a 50/50 split between rushing and passing yards. But as I have it JMU is the closest to a 50/50 split rushing for 255.7 per game and passing for 226.9 per game.

[FUBeAR]

As it should be.:Dyes...but they all, for the most part, throw 20-25 passes/game for 200+ yards. Triple Option Teams do about half of those passing numbers.

Whatever their stats are, what FUBeAR really likes about APSU’s O is that they TRULY enjoy both - you can tell they love to run the dang ball & hammer their opponents & you can tell they also really love to get the ball to their ‘athletes in space’ via slingin’ it to ‘em. Don’t really see that in the SoCon enough. Samford doesn’t like to run the ball. Neither does VMI or WCU...despite what they may say (or even do). Wofford & CIT don’t like to throw it & we can probably lump FU & ETSU into that group this year. Mercer wanted to do both, but without Riddle, didn’t seem like they were comfortable (enjoying) doing either - it was sort of...”Oh no...it’s 3rd & 3, we HAVE to run it” and “Oh no...it’s 3rd & 8, we HAVE to pass it.” Chatt was closest to ‘enjoying’ doing both this year & if the other 8 don’t start REALLY enjoying ‘matriculating the ball’ - regardless of the methodology of matriculation, Chatt will pass ‘em all by.

[100%GRIZ]

A couple interesting stat trends I've noticed from the 8 remaining teams:
1) All of them have a turnover margin on the year of +6 or better which puts all of them in the top 30 in the FCS in that category. Not surprisingly if you tend to win the turnover battle you tend to win games.
2) Only one remaining team (Montana) is in the top 40 in the FCS in passing yards per game. In fact 5 of the 8 remaining teams are ranked 79th or lower in the FCS in passing yards per game... it appears that run predicated offenses are having the most success this year.
Agree 100% - With the way the weather forecast looks at Weber don't be surprised with a run heavy or screen dominated Griz on Friday night. Just my 2 sense & no I have no inside information! Just intuition.

[Grizalltheway]

Agree 100% - With the way the weather forecast looks at Weber don't be surprised with a run heavy or screen dominated Griz on Friday night. Just my 2 sense & no I have no inside information! Just intuition.
Looks like they're just calling for a chance of rain and snow on Friday night. I don't think anything other than a heavy downpour would be enough to change our game plan. I think our best chance to win is to abuse their secondary as much as possible.

[MSUBobcat]

Does anyone know what the current odds to win are or do they not update overall odds after the tourney starts? I would think a person could still put money on a team to win, but I don't really do sports betting. What I'm finding at 5dimes for the live lines for this week's games are:
ISU-r @ NDSU: NDSU -20.5, over/under 41
UNI @ JMU: JMU -12.5, over/under 41.5
APSU @ MSU: MSU -6, over/under 55.5
UM @ WSU: UM -3, over/under 57.5

Interesting to me that UM @ WSU is expected to be the highest scoring. Yes UM piss pounded SLU last week, but the implied assumption is that WSU (who's not known for offense) is going to keep it close which IMO implies a lower scoring game, not a 30-27 score. Additionally, in the first meeting they combined for only 51 points. APSU @ MSU features the #12 and #19 scoring offenses, APSU scored 42 in each of their playoff games and MSU scored 47 against Albany. If I'm a betting man, I take the under on UM-BBQ and definitely the over on APSU-MSU.

[Grizalltheway]

Does anyone know what the current odds to win are or do they not update overall odds after the tourney starts? I would think a person could still put money on a team to win, but I don't really do sports betting. What I'm finding at 5dimes for the live lines for this week's games are:
ISU-r @ NDSU: NDSU -20.5, over/under 41
UNI @ JMU: JMU -12.5, over/under 41.5
APSU @ MSU: MSU -6, over/under 55.5
UM @ WSU: UM -3, over/under 57.5

Interesting to me that UM @ WSU is expected to be the highest scoring. Yes UM piss pounded SLU last week, but the implied assumption is that WSU (who's not known for offense) is going to keep it close which IMO implies a lower scoring game, not a 30-27 score. Additionally, in the first meeting they combined for only 51 points. APSU @ MSU features the #12 and #19 scoring offenses, APSU scored 42 in each of their playoff games and MSU scored 47 against Albany. If I'm a betting man, I take the under on UM-BBQ and definitely the over on APSU-MSU.

I think Weber will score more this time if they don't pee down their legs with the botched snaps and whatnot. Hopefully the aren't able to replicate MSU's blueprint for slowing down the offense.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

Does anyone know what the current odds to win are or do they not update overall odds after the tourney starts? I would think a person could still put money on a team to win, but I don't really do sports betting. What I'm finding at 5dimes for the live lines for this week's games are:
ISU-r @ NDSU: NDSU -20.5, over/under 41
UNI @ JMU: JMU -12.5, over/under 41.5
APSU @ MSU: MSU -6, over/under 55.5
UM @ WSU: UM -3, over/under 57.5

Interesting to me that UM @ WSU is expected to be the highest scoring. Yes UM piss pounded SLU last week, but the implied assumption is that WSU (who's not known for offense) is going to keep it close which IMO implies a lower scoring game, not a 30-27 score. Additionally, in the first meeting they combined for only 51 points. APSU @ MSU features the #12 and #19 scoring offenses, APSU scored 42 in each of their playoff games and MSU scored 47 against Albany. If I'm a betting man, I take the under on UM-BBQ and definitely the over on APSU-MSU.

Im honestly surprised that Montana is favored in this game. People seem to be forgetting how dominant of a football team Weber was until they played Montana. I guess coming off a game against a triple option team can sometimes where a team down for the next week.

[MSUBobcat]

I think Weber will score more this time if they don't pee down their legs with the botched snaps and whatnot. Hopefully the aren't able to replicate MSU's blueprint for slowing down the offense.

I don't disagree that BBQ scores more, but I think part of it comes at the expense of UM not scoring as much. I think this is more of a "first to 30 wins" type of game. Let's not forget that even with the Grills pissing down their leg, the Griz only scored 35 at home (yes, I'm aware the Griz were just trying to get out of the 4th quarter with the game well in hand). Weber has the defense to take MSU's game plan and replicate it to some effectiveness, making possessions more of a premium.

[MSUBobcat]

Im honestly surprised that Montana is favored in this game. People seem to be forgetting how dominant of a football team Weber was until they played Montana. I guess coming off a game against a triple option team can sometimes where a team down for the next week.

A resounding beatdown less than a month ago tends to do that. I could see anywhere from -3 for WSU to -3 for UM. Obviously this game, followed by MSU-APSU, are the most intriguing games of the weekend.

[Professor Chaos]

Does anyone know what the current odds to win are or do they not update overall odds after the tourney starts? I would think a person could still put money on a team to win, but I don't really do sports betting. What I'm finding at 5dimes for the live lines for this week's games are:
ISU-r @ NDSU: NDSU -20.5, over/under 41
UNI @ JMU: JMU -12.5, over/under 41.5
APSU @ MSU: MSU -6, over/under 55.5
UM @ WSU: UM -3, over/under 57.5

Interesting to me that UM @ WSU is expected to be the highest scoring. Yes UM piss pounded SLU last week, but the implied assumption is that WSU (who's not known for offense) is going to keep it close which IMO implies a lower scoring game, not a 30-27 score. Additionally, in the first meeting they combined for only 51 points. APSU @ MSU features the #12 and #19 scoring offenses, APSU scored 42 in each of their playoff games and MSU scored 47 against Albany. If I'm a betting man, I take the under on UM-BBQ and definitely the over on APSU-MSU.
Weber St does score 29.7 points per game and Montana gives up 25.7 so I think a 30-27 game like the spread and O/U are predicting is pretty plausible.

According to an article by Sam Herder at Hero Sports when the lines opened last night it was UM -1. NDSU was also at -23, JMU was at -13.5, and Montana St was at -7 so, with the exception of that Montana/Weber St game, money is coming in on the underdogs.

[MSUBobcat]

Weber St does score 29.7 points per game and Montana gives up 25.7 so I think a 30-27 game like the spread and O/U are predicting is pretty plausible.

According to an article by Sam Herder at Hero Sports when the lines opened last night it was UM -1. NDSU was also at -23, JMU was at -13.5, and Montana St was at -7 so, with the exception of that Montana/Weber St game, money is coming in on the underdogs.

It's plausible, no doubt. That's why they're oddsmakers and I'm a bean counter. Also why I'm not much of a sports bettor. I'm just seeing this as more of a 28-24 game. And I'm not sure who I'd pick as the winner yet.

[Derby City Duke]

Think our spread should be closer to 7.5. Best defense the Dukes have seen since WVU.

Weather may impact as they are talking about freezing rain in the valley during the game window. If that happens it may very well tip the scales to UNI. I'm not expecting a big scoring margin in this one. Then again I was antsy about last week's game too...

[Professor Chaos]

Does anyone know what the current odds to win are or do they not update overall odds after the tourney starts? I would think a person could still put money on a team to win, but I don't really do sports betting. What I'm finding at 5dimes for the live lines for this week's games are:
ISU-r @ NDSU: NDSU -20.5, over/under 41
UNI @ JMU: JMU -12.5, over/under 41.5
APSU @ MSU: MSU -6, over/under 55.5
UM @ WSU: UM -3, over/under 57.5

Interesting to me that UM @ WSU is expected to be the highest scoring. Yes UM piss pounded SLU last week, but the implied assumption is that WSU (who's not known for offense) is going to keep it close which IMO implies a lower scoring game, not a 30-27 score. Additionally, in the first meeting they combined for only 51 points. APSU @ MSU features the #12 and #19 scoring offenses, APSU scored 42 in each of their playoff games and MSU scored 47 against Albany. If I'm a betting man, I take the under on UM-BBQ and definitely the over on APSU-MSU.
Here's the updated odds:

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1204526454060539906

[Redbird 4th & short]

Here's the updated odds:

https://twitter.com/SamHerderFCS/status/1204526454060539906

I'm surprised our odds are the same as anyone ???

Just got confirmed, WR Edgar has been cleared medically to play. That will help some.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm surprised our odds are the same as anyone ???

Just got confirmed, WR Edgar has been cleared medically to play. That will help some.
Any word on the FB McCloyn? He came off the field very gingerly on that knee but I heard Spack said it wasn't as bad as they initially thought and that he'd be "day to day".