Kennesaw State @ Weber State

[GreatGreatGreat]

Fresh off of their upset(?) victory over Wofford, the Owls come to Ogden to face the #3 seeded Weber State Wildcats. Triple option offense vs a run heavy offense. KSU defense looked impressive against Wofford. Weber's defensive strength is the front 7. Do the owls like cold weather? High of 39 for the game. No snow in the forecast (yet). My take is Weber wins this one 31-21.

[ksu_owls]

Excited for the game! I learn the most about FCS when the Owls get to play good teams (doesn't happen often lol).

I bought into the AGS doubt of KSU/Wofford and I was pleasantly surprised. I noticed that compughter ratings has our defense ranked 100 spots worse than Weber (86 overall vs 186), but I'm pretty sure there's not that much discrepancy.

I believe Weber St will be prepared to make a statement. This game will rely heavily on our defense, which just held Wofford to 90 total yards at the half, which was only possible because we held them to 11:37 TOP for the first half. The second half was a completely different ball game. Watching the first half, I felt like we would strangle Wofford and find a way to score again to win. Once our starting QB went down, I was afraid we wouldn't move the ball at all. Then enters the greatest 3rd string QB of all of 2019 in the FCS-- Jonathan Murphy. Before last night he only had 18 snaps all year (all of which were in crap time against the weakest of our weak SOS). There's a weird feeling of an advantage having Murphy at QB. Other than the 25 plays against Wofford (about 14 mins of possession in total), there's no Murphy KSU film.

Wofford has a good defense, at least that's what AGS told me. Murphy jumped into a game plan that didn't consider him as the leader and made it look easy. I'm excited to see what the coaches do with a week to throw in some packages that are centered around his strengths.

Like I said, this one is on our defense. I'll take my chances on Offense with the new kid, he's been preparing for this moment and that showed last night.

[Professor Chaos]

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49152500556_97d2253242_o.jpg

#1 rushing offense in the FCS vs the #9 rushing defense in the FCS. This should be a good matchup. It's no secret what the key is for both teams.

Statistically Kennesaw St looks more like the #3 seed than Weber St does but Weber just seems to know how to win. Both of these teams are seasoned playoff squads so there's no advantage there either for the home team. I mentioned it in the upsets thread but Kennesaw St (along with Illinois St) is trying to snap a 15 game losing streak in the FCS playoffs for teams playing back-to-back road games. Can they do it? They've got a puncher's chance but I'd expect Weber to win.

[BurialGround]

I just hope we're able to field a team with all the injuries we've had!

[cx500d]

I think Weber is a paper tiger

[I Bleed Purple]

I think Weber is a paper tiger

That doesn't make any sense. Paper tigers are great offensive powerhouses with no defense. Weber is, like, the opposite of that.

[cx500d]

That doesn't make any sense. Paper tigers are great offensive powerhouses with no defense. Weber is, like, the opposite of that.
Also not impressed with their education system...

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/paper%20tiger

[JacksFan40]

If KSU wins it’ll be because Weber struggles defending the triple option. Or if Weber plays like they did against Montana.

[cx500d]

If KSU wins it’ll be because Weber struggles defending the triple option. Or if Weber plays like they did against Montana.
@#SouthernSpeedtm

[ksu_owls]

If KSU wins it’ll be because Weber struggles defending the triple option. Or if Weber plays like they did against Montana.

Weber St could lose this game because they aren't as good as a rebuilding/injured KSU, but I doubt anyone will see it that way if it happens...

[HootyHoo]

I have a good feeling about this matchup for KSU. Weber St is a solid team, but they've never seen anything like the Owls option attack. Jonathan Murphy is the breakout player of the postseason.

[cx500d]

Agree with hottyhow, owls are unstoppable. GrillState has no chance.

[Bison56]

My favorite line during the playoffs "but they've never seen anything like"

[HootyHoo]

This matchup is going to be fun. These two programs have combined for 7 playoff wins since 2016. Hopefully the Turnover Plank makes the trip to Ogden.

[GreatGreatGreat]

I think Weber is a paper tiger
No one who has watched us play this year could call us a paper tiger. We have had to grind out wins all year. Good defense, good special teams, adequate offense. We don’t win pretty, we just win.

[caribbeanhen]

I think Weber is a paper tiger

maybe the Big Sky is nothing more than a clay pigeon, Target practice commences next Saturday

[Grizzlies82]

Option teams are often difficult for schools out west. They are seen so infrequently. Cal Poly being the only one out here. Seems a Big Sky team may need a quarter or so to dial in on defending an option team.

So I wouldn't be surprised if Kennesaw even took a lead into halftime. Though I don't see this as a close game. Weber State will ultimately bury them.

[fencer24]

I have a good feeling about this matchup for KSU. Weber St is a solid team, but they've never seen anything like the Owls option attack. Jonathan Murphy is the breakout player of the postseason.

What's different in the KSU Triple Option than other TOs? Cal Poly was killing a lot of teams in the conference until people started to figure out how to defend it. The biggest problem I have seen is when a TO team is down two scores, they almost never are able to get back into the game.

[TheKingpin28]

I have a good feeling about this matchup for KSU. Weber St is a solid team, but they've never seen anything like the Owls option attack. Jonathan Murphy is the breakout player of the postseason.

Not that Cal Poly runs a TO offense. xcoffeex

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Weber wins this by a lot.....xnodx

[HootyHoo]

What's different in the KSU Triple Option than other TOs? Cal Poly was killing a lot of teams in the conference until people started to figure out how to defend it. The biggest problem I have seen is when a TO team is down two scores, they almost never are able to get back into the game.

KSU's offense is a version of Paul Johnson's flexbone. Coach Johnson is the Godfather of the modern triple option. It's unique even among option systems. That doesn't mean it's unstoppable though. Monmouth shut it down completely. But it's really hard to stop if you have never seen it before.

[uni88]

KSU's offense is a version of Paul Johnson's flexbone. Coach Johnson is the Godfather of the modern triple option. It's unique even among option systems. That doesn't mean it's unstoppable though. Monmouth shut it down completely. But it's really hard to stop if you have never seen it before.How is it unique?

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[HootyHoo]

How is it unique?

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https://youtu.be/l34MD8VNFo4

[Bisonoline]

KSU's offense is a version of Paul Johnson's flexbone. Coach Johnson is the Godfather of the modern triple option. It's unique even among option systems. That doesn't mean it's unstoppable though. Monmouth shut it down completely. But it's really hard to stop if you have never seen it before.

Its not rocket science in how to defend it. Its called assignment football. Your players have to be very disciplined. Look no further than Iowa vs GT in the Orange Bowl and NDSU vs GSU in 2011-2012.

[uni88]

Its not rocket science in how to defend it. Its called assignment football. Your players have to be very disciplined. Look no further than Iowa vs GT in the Orange Bowl and NDSU vs GSU in 2011-2012.[emoji106] Do your job and trust your teammates to do theirs.

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[GreatGreatGreat]

https://youtu.be/l34MD8VNFo4
Sorry but I would dare say our defensive line is amongst the best in all of FCS. A lot of those single blocks ain’t gonna happen. May be a feast for our linebackers. I’m more afraid of a spread west coast offense then I am of a triple option. We have big mean Polynesian lineman in our neck of the woods :D

[Reign of Terrier]

Running the option isn't like running the same play over and over. If you key on one thing (not just one player, or one read), like all offenses, the OC will adjust.

KSU saw something on the film with how Wofford defended the citadel, adjusted, came in and had success.

There's a cat and mouse game in all offenses. What makes the triple option hard to defend is variation you can see in one lineup on a single formation. What makes it "easy" to defend is that the style of play just isn't great for throwing the ball or getting chunk yardage in a third and long situation.

There are teams that execute better with the TO than others, just as there are better air raid offenses or pro offenses than others. KSU may run a similar offense to Cal Poly, but their execution and ability is far greater, comparable to, say, the difference between Samford with Devlin Hodges at QB compared to Charleston Southern's current air raid.

What makes option teams vulnerable is not the fact that they run the option, it's that committing to the option to the degree that they do takes away from other dimensions that are necessary to get you out of a bind. Every offense runs option. "Triple option" offenses just run less of everything else.

I like KSU in this one. Maybe I'm biased.

But if they do win, I fully look forward to everyone applying the same general criticism toward Weber as Wofford. They won't.

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[uofmman1122]

Running the option isn't like running the same play over and over. If you key on one thing (not just one player, or one read), like all offenses, the OC will adjust.

KSU saw something on the film with how Wofford defended the citadel, adjusted, came in and had success.

There's a cat and mouse game in all offenses. What makes the triple option hard to defend is variation you can see in one lineup on a single formation. What makes it "easy" to defend is that the style of play just isn't great for throwing the ball or getting chunk yardage in a third and long situation.

There are teams that execute better with the TO than others, just as there are better air raid offenses or pro offenses than others. KSU may run a similar offense to Cal Poly, but their execution and ability is far greater, comparable to, say, the difference between Samford with Devlin Hodges at QB compared to Charleston Southern's current air raid.

What makes option teams vulnerable is not the fact that they run the option, it's that committing to the option to the degree that they do takes away from other dimensions that are necessary to get you out of a bind. Every offense runs option. "Triple option" offenses just run less of everything else.

I like KSU in this one. Maybe I'm biased.

But if they do win, I fully look forward to everyone applying the same general criticism toward Weber as Wofford. They won't.

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You? Never. lol

[Bison56]

Weber St could lose this game because they aren't as good as a rebuilding/injured KSU, but I doubt anyone will see it that way if it happens...

Cute post.

[Reign of Terrier]

You? Never. lol

Everyone's biased. I drop the pretense.

[ksu_owls]

What I see from watching some of the Cal Poly game, Weber St capitalizes on opponents' mistakes. Cal Poly looked weak on defense and gave up a lot of extra yardage on the ground after contact.

I can't imagine Weber's defense being exceptionally better than Wofford's (based on what AGS has been saying about Wofford). I don't see KSU making some of the mistakes that Cal Poly made/were forced into. This should be a close game. The X factor is the new QB for KSU. He set a Big South QB rushing record on 23 carries in just over 2 quarters of play against Wofford.

I think Weber will kick a bunch of field goals and the Owls will stay in it to pull away at the end by forcing a big turnover.

[HootyHoo]

My favorite line during the playoffs "but they've never seen anything like"

My favorite line is “KSU’s offense is similar to Cal Poly.”

[fencer24]

Everyone's biased. I drop the pretense.

Honest and Humble!!

[100%GRIZ]

Should be an interesting game. Wonder if weather will play a roll?

[Bisonator]

I get a kick out of every team that runs the option saying theirs is unique and nearly unstoppable.......xcoffeex

[Houndawg]

Running the option isn't like running the same play over and over. If you key on one thing (not just one player, or one read), like all offenses, the OC will adjust.

KSU saw something on the film with how Wofford defended the citadel, adjusted, came in and had success.

There's a cat and mouse game in all offenses. What makes the triple option hard to defend is variation you can see in one lineup on a single formation. What makes it "easy" to defend is that the style of play just isn't great for throwing the ball or getting chunk yardage in a third and long situation.

There are teams that execute better with the TO than others, just as there are better air raid offenses or pro offenses than others. KSU may run a similar offense to Cal Poly, but their execution and ability is far greater, comparable to, say, the difference between Samford with Devlin Hodges at QB compared to Charleston Southern's current air raid.

What makes option teams vulnerable is not the fact that they run the option, it's that committing to the option to the degree that they do takes away from other dimensions that are necessary to get you out of a bind. Every offense runs option. "Triple option" offenses just run less of everything else.

I like KSU in this one. Maybe I'm biased.

But if they do win, I fully look forward to everyone applying the same general criticism toward Weber as Wofford. They won't.

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What makes them vulnerable is the opportunities to fumble

[ElCid]

What makes them vulnerable is the opportunities to fumble

Yes and no. The two TO teams in the SC lost fumbles, on average less than one a game. Wofford lost two all year!? Samford and VMI, two pass happy teams, lost fumbles almost or as much as we did. Opportunities to fumble? Sure, but that doesn't always translate into actuals. But since we fumbled many more we didn't lose, they screwed up drives for sure here and there. Execution, execution, execution. I've seen us, and Wofford, and years back GaSo, execute it perfectly an entire game. And I've seen some silly balls dropped too many times. I guess you could say air raid offenses make them vulnerable to interceptions as well and yet VMI only threw 4 Ints this entire year in 471 passes thrown. Execution, .........

[ksu_owls]

Wofford lost two all year!?

They lost two fumbles against KSU on Saturday. We had one from the new QB on 4th and inches on his second drive, he settled in and made up for it. Weber St looks reallllly good but I think they will have to beat us through the air. I don't see them running very successfully on us.

[ElCid]

They lost two fumbles against KSU on Saturday. We had one from the new QB on 4th and inches on his second drive, he settled in and made up for it. Weber St looks reallllly good but I think they will have to beat us through the air. I don't see them running very successfully on us.

Yeah, I had the prior weeks stats. So they doubled their lost fumbles in one game. Yikes!

[KSUFAN]

Kennesaw press conference
https://youtu.be/zjpu47rEwds

[GreatGreatGreat]

https://www.abc4.com/sports/weber-state-head-coach-jay-hill-joins-real-sports-live-4/

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I get a kick out of every team that runs the option saying theirs is unique and nearly unstoppable.......xcoffeex


Weber rolls in this game.

[100%GRIZ]

I think it will be a competative game & obviously am rooting for Kennesaw State! Should be an interesting match-up & I don't see it being a cakewalk for Weber!

[ksu_owls]

I think it will be a competative game & obviously am rooting for Kennesaw State! Should be an interesting match-up & I don't see it being a cakewalk for Weber!

My thoughts exactly. There's no reason the #2 Big South team should travel to Utah and win this game, but KSU is a solid squad that won't go down easy. With both Bryant and Murphy ready to go at QB, I hope coach uses both of their strengths in different packages to keep moving the ball against Weber. If they win big I'd guess it was an early air raid that opened up the rushing game. If we can get some early stops on defense we can hang in there and win this one.

[cx500d]

I think it will be a competative game & obviously am rooting for Kennesaw State! Should be an interesting match-up & I don't see it being a cakewalk for Weber!

It wasn't obvious until you said it

[Grizalltheway]

It wasn't obvious until you said it
It should have been to someone whose team lost the only time they've had to go on the road in the playoffs.;)

[cx500d]

It should have been to someone whose team lost the only time they've had to go on the road in the playoffs.;)

Sure, dredge up ancient history

[putter]

It should have been to someone whose team lost the only time they've had to go on the road in the playoffs.;)

Guess we won't mention the JMU game.... keep that a secret for a couple weeks from now

[KnightoftheRedFlash]

Nothing is prettier than the triple option when it is rolling.

[MSUBobcat]

Nothing is prettier than the triple option when it is rolling.

Uhhhhh.... what???

[caribbeanhen]

I think it will be a competative game & obviously am rooting for Kennesaw State! Should be an interesting match-up & I don't see it being a cakewalk for Weber!

I can agree with all of this, I'll be pulling for Kennesaw for maybe the first time ever..... Who was it that called Weber State a paper tiger? I think he might be right......

of course the problem for Kenny will be defending the Weber passing game, if as good as Monmouth's ..... game over

[ksu_owls]

I can agree with all of this, I'll be pulling for Kennesaw for maybe the first time ever..... Who was it that called Weber State a paper tiger? I think he might be right......

of course the problem for Kenny will be defending the Weber passing game, if as good as Monmouth's ..... game over

I’m excited to see what coach does with our QB situation. Murphy made Wofford look like a JV team, but Bryant is who brought consistency to our offense for the first time since last season. If we can defend the pass I like our chances. I see this being like a JSU/KSU game. Knock down drag out that could go either way. Or I could be way off and this ends up being ugly. We’ll see!!

[KsawOwls]

Kennesaw wins 28-24

[caribbeanhen]

I’m excited to see what coach does with our QB situation. Murphy made Wofford look like a JV team, but Bryant is who brought consistency to our offense for the first time since last season. If we can defend the pass I like our chances. I see this being like a JSU/KSU game. Knock down drag out that could go either way. Or I could be way off and this ends up being ugly. We’ll see!!

go Murphy

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I got Weber 27-17. I do believe KSU can win this game but I got to favor the Wildcats at home with their defense....

[ksu_owls]

I got Weber 27-17. I do believe KSU can win this game but I got to favor the Wildcats at home with their defense....

I think Weber is incredibly talented. I want the Owls to go out and play like a top 10 team. If they do that they can win, won’t be easy but it’s possible!

[HootyHoo]

20-17 Owls. It’s going to be a smash mouth style of game. Both teams like to run the ball and play tough hard nosed style of defense. A combined total of 7 playoff wins since 2016 between these two teams. Let’s see who wants #8.

[ksu_owls]

We force Weber into a 3 and out on their opening drive. Let’s see what Murphy can do in his first ever collegiate start!

[ElCid]

I am pretty sure Weber is not ready for KSU rushing attack. Everyone says they are, or thinks they will be, but few really are.

[ksu_owls]

Owls drive stops short and they settle for the FG. 3-0 KSU. Let’s go defense!!

[ksu_owls]

Good red zone D to hold them to a FG 3-3 with 6 mins left in the 1Q.

[KSUFAN]

Weber already given up more yards rushing then there per game average! 107 in 1st qtr. 3-3

[ksu_owls]

10-3. Let’s go Owls!!

[ksu_owls]

10-9. Weber found out they can throw on us but then tried some stupid muddle huddle lol

[ElCid]

Well, Weber can;t stop KSU's rushing and it looks like KSU can't stop Weber's passing game. Let's see who corrects first.

[ksu_owls]

17-9 KSU. We need to get a stop on defense!

[ksu_owls]

Nice fake punt keeps Weber on the field after what would have been a 3 and out. They stall in FG range to make it 17-12

[KnightoftheRedFlash]

KSU looking sharp.

[ksu_owls]

31260Great first half by the Owls. Let’s see if we can handle Weber’s halftime adjustments.

[ksu_owls]

Uncharacteristic turnover leads to a scoop and score for Weber. Not a good start to the 2H for the Owls.

[ElCid]

Oops!

KSU choked on that one. Sloppy pitch.

[ksu_owls]

Owls are stuttering to start the 3rd. Need to see if the defense can bail them out until they get back into rhythm.

[ElCid]

Looks like Weber adjusted better so far. But we haven't seen KSU's D yet.

[ksu_owls]

Weber executed some big plays on that drive. That’s what good teams do! Owls gota move the ball here to stay in it.

[BurialGround]

We're not going to make any adjustments, we don't know how to stop the pass. Gonna have to score, but unfortunately, we're out of our game right now, getting desperate.

[ksu_owls]

If the offense doesn’t get going here it’ll be a long second half. Can’t come out cold against good teams like this.

[ksu_owls]

That was an ugly quarter. Hats off to Weber for coming out and making plays. Let’s see if the Owls can battle back in the 4th. 26-17

[ksu_owls]

Plank sure would be handy right here....

[ksu_owls]

Plank sure would be handy right here....

ALMOST! Dropped what would have been an easy pick 6. Owls take over after holding Weber.

[ElCid]

Wow, that was easily targeting. How stupid on Weber player. No reason to.

[BurialGround]

26-20, KSU's gotta hold here.

[ksu_owls]

26-20 with 8:31 to play. Weber to receive the kickoff. Let’s go defense!!

[ksu_owls]

PLANK!!!! Let’s go Owls!!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Owls with an INT!!!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1st down KSU by literally an inch...

[BurialGround]

Not a good play call on first down, and then we just had no way to do anything with second and long and so little time on the clock. Another close playoff loss for the Owls. Tough, but I can't wait to see what this young QB does in the future.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

This one went about as I expected. KSU has nothing to be ashamed of. That was a tough, physical game that Weber definitely had to earn....

[Bison56]

See you next December HootyHoo

[ksu_owls]

I hate losing but I thought the Big South #2 Owls looked like they’ll be back for more next year. Not a bad rebuilding year!

[adamsputnik]

Tough loss, but a good showing against a great defense. Couple of miscues cost us badly.

[Bisonator]

Congrats to Weber!

[I Bleed Purple]

Kennesaw's good.

Figured the option out in the second half.

Their defense is good. Sold out on run, making us rely on the weaker aspect. Came through, though.

[ksu_owls]

Kennesaw's good.

Figured the option out in the second half.

Their defense is good. Sold out on run, making us rely on the weaker aspect. Came through, though.

I was proud of our effort. I’m excited to see how Murphy matures, he’s a talented kid that did pretty well in a tough situation. I think the Owls are a top 10 team that has room to grow. Congrats to Weber! Cheering for you guys the rest of the way!

- - - Updated - - -


Kennesaw's good.

Figured the option out in the second half.

Their defense is good. Sold out on run, making us rely on the weaker aspect. Came through, though.

I was proud of our effort. I’m excited to see how Murphy matures, he’s a talented kid that did pretty well in a tough situation. I think the Owls are a top 10 team that has room to grow. Congrats to Weber! Cheering for you guys the rest of the way!

[I Bleed Purple]

Hill on the radio post game said Murphy was tons better than any other QB they've used this year.

[GreatGreatGreat]

Good tough playoff game. Hats off to the Owls. We had everything but the pitch bottled up in the 1st half. They kept gashing us in the 1st half. Our corners were outphysicaled by KSU’s large WRs. Unconvinced that Kennesaw could throw we let our safety scream down to set the edge in the second half.

[uofmman1122]

Way to go, boys.

See you next weekend. xnodx

[GreatGreatGreat]

Way to go, boys.

See you next weekend. xnodx
Same to you. I’m excited to play you guys again considering I think we beat ourselves up in Missoula. Not saying we’ll beat you this time but I think it’ll be a lot closer.

[uofmman1122]

Same to you. I’m excited to play you guys again considering I think we beat ourselves up in Missoula. Not saying we’ll beat you this time but I think it’ll be a lot closer.
For sure.

Weber didn't look like they matched up with our physicality the first game, but now that y'all are mad about it, I have a feeling this is gonna be one hell of a physical game.

Hopefully we can buck the old "it's tough to beat a team twice" adage.

[I Bleed Purple]

For sure.

Weber didn't look like they matched up with our physicality the first game, but now that y'all are mad about it, I have a feeling this is gonna be one hell of a physical game.

Hopefully we can buck the old "it's tough to beat a team twice" adage.

I thought it was more the bad snaps and skinny posts that did us in in Missoula. I mean, physicality could have played into focus, leading to the miscues, but the skinny post stuff has plagued the secondary all year.

Hopefully the triple option physical play will put us in the right mindset for Montana.

[uofmman1122]

I thought it was more the bad snaps and skinny posts that did us in in Missoula. I mean, physicality could have played into focus, leading to the miscues, but the skinny post stuff has plagued the secondary all year.

Hopefully the triple option physical play will put us in the right mindset for Montana.
I mean, there were two skinny posts and two bad snaps, and those alone didn't get you guys in a 35-3 hole.

I think it'll be a much closer game than the last one, but if we can shut your running game down again, I like our chances.

[GreatGreatGreat]

I mean, there were two skinny posts and two bad snaps, and those alone didn't get you guys in a 35-3 hole.

I think it'll be a much closer game than the last one, but if we can shut your running game down again, I like our chances.
Well, those 4 plays were directly related to 28 points so they were pretty important.

[uofmman1122]

Well, those 4 plays were directly related to 28 points so they were pretty important.
Just like the fact that we didn’t score 45 was *directly related* to putting our subs in for most of the 4th quarter, I suppose. ;)

[Grizalltheway]

I thought it was more the bad snaps and skinny posts that did us in in Missoula. I mean, physicality could have played into focus, leading to the miscues, but the skinny post stuff has plagued the secondary all year.

Hopefully the triple option physical play will put us in the right mindset for Montana.
Let's not forget about the fact that your offense was beaten into submission.

[GreatGreatGreat]

Let's not forget about the fact that your offense was beaten into submission.
Yep. We were moving the ball well in the first half but didn’t capitalize. The hard hits made our guys timid/injured in the 2nd half. Once again, I’m looking forward to the rematch because I still think we just pissed down our legs in Missoula. I still think you’ll be favored but I still like our chances.

[Catbooster]

Yep. We were moving the ball well in the first half but didn’t capitalize. The hard hits made our guys timid/injured in the 2nd half. Once again, I’m looking forward to the rematch because I still think we just pissed down our legs in Missoula. I still think you’ll be favored but I still like our chances.
I'm not sure - before this last round, I would have expected Weber to be favored, but after the Griz winning by such a big margin and Weber having a relatively close game, it wouldn't surprise me if the Griz are favored. Either way, both teams have had some bad games but also been dominant at other times. I don't think the Weber/Griz game earlier in the year accurately reflects either team.

I'd give Weber the edge, but either team is certainly capable of winning.