#13 Illinois St @ #12 Southeast Missouri St

[Professor Chaos]

I'm bored trying to finish out a slow holiday work week so figured I'd get these last few game threads started.

Here's how the numbers break down for these two:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49119778871_a949ea4ed0_o.jpg

It's kind of hard to figure out how SEMO is 9-3 looking at their numbers and they have needed a few comebacks late in the year to get there. Illinois St is hurting on offense after the loss of QB Brady Davis. Their defense is stout but if their offense can't score points all it takes is one slip up and they're behind the 8 ball. 5dimes has Illinois St as a 2.5 point road favorite. Massey predicts a 20-18 Illinois St win and Sagarin has them as basically a pick 'em factoring in homefield advantage for SEMO.

I think it's a low scoring game where the home team is able to score just enough to win. SEMO by a FG. Who do you have winning and why?

[Bisonator]

Unless ISUr can find some offense it's gonna be hard to win. Robinson is good but SEMO can stack the box. I got SEMO by 4.

[Schism55]

SEMO D is very good against the run. As good as Robinson is for Ill St, their passing game last week was as bad as I've seen at this level... maybe ever? I don't like picking against our MVFC brethren, but this is an awful matchup for the Redbirds. I like SEMO by 8.

[Tazman2664]

How is this a #12 vs a #13?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

SEMO: stack the box and make Ill State pass the ball......SEMO wins.

[caribbeanhen]

SEMO D is very good against the run. As good as Robinson is for Ill St, their passing game last week was as bad as I've seen at this level... maybe ever? I don't like picking against our MVFC brethren, but this is an awful matchup for the Redbirds. I like SEMO by 8.

SEMO LB Zac Hall is worth the price of admission if you like watching good defensive players

[Schism55]

SEMO LB Zac Hall is worth the price of admission if you like watching good defensive players
Yes, yes he is. Pumped to see him and Robinson meet in the hole many times this game xthumbsupx

[JayJ79]

How is this a #12 vs a #13?
well, one is ranked #12 and the other is ranked #13 in both the AGS poll and the STATS poll
if you prefer the Coaches Poll, it would be #14 @ #13

[Redbird 4th & short]

Happy Thanksgiving to all. I'm up early since I'm in charge of cooking the Turkey this year. So I'm up getting our stuffing ready and planning to slow cooke/smoke my first Turkey. Really struggling with cook time .. I've done brisketts and pork shoulders and had no trouble or confusion. But for some reason, a 15 lb turkey at 300 degrees in regular oven takes just 4 hours, but same 300 degree temp in a smoker supposedly takes 12 hours .. losing confidence in this plan fast !!!

Speaking of people in charge who are struggling to make a decision .. Spack announced he will go with RS FR dual threat QB Jefferson (oven ??) over true FR pocket QB Baltz (slow cooker ??). In this case, I'm worried both options are going to prove to be undercooked.

The only thing I noticed that gives me hope is how statistically unimpressive SEMO is offensively and defensively while going 8-3 (D-I) in the OVC. Their total offensive ranks 74th (6th in OVC) and their total defense ranks 54th (4th in OVC). OUr offense ranks 111th and our defense also ranks 4th in conference, except that puts us 12th overall In FCS .. which says something about MVFC depth on defense compared to OVC. Not a revelation for most people, but playing against NDSU, UNI, SDSU can drive down your production ... MVFC has 4 defenses in the top 10 in FCS in yards per play:



Rank
Team
G
W-L
Plays
YDS
Yds/Play
Off TDs
Opp TDs
YPG


1
N.C. A&T (MEAC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/488.0/14900)
11
8-3
686
2,974
4.34
27
27
270.4


9
Austin Peay (OVC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/43.0/14900)
12
9-3
829
3,595
4.34
30
30
299.6


19
Sam Houston St. (Southland) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/624.0/14900)
12
7-5
907
3,960
4.37
23
26
330.0


2
Central Conn. St. (NEC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/127.0/14900)
12
11-1
742
3,279
4.42
25
29
273.3


5
James Madison (CAA) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/317.0/14900)
12
11-1
744
3,334
4.48
21
22
277.8


3
North Dakota St. (MVFC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/493.0/14900)
12
12-0
727
3,291
4.53
15
16
274.3


11
UNI (MVFC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/504.0/14900)
12
8-4
808
3,687
4.56
26
27
307.3


15
South Carolina St. (MEAC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/647.0/14900)
11
8-3
775
3,546
4.58
28
28
322.4


12
Illinois St. (MVFC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/299.0/14900)
12
8-4
813
3,729
4.59
25
27
310.8


8
South Dakota St. (MVFC) (https://stats.ncaa.org/team/649.0/14900)
12
8-4
781
3,594
4.60
24
25
299.5



SEMO got off to nice start beating SIU by 18 in week 1, but SIU seemed to be a team that got better as season progressed. And of their 8 wins, their 2 most impressive margins were SIU by 18 and then 3-9 Tenn St by 19. Their other 6 wins were by average of 7 points per game, most of which were OVC games. Statistically, they just do not impress for a 8-3 team ... first downs and total yards were very even with their opponents. The one stat that jumps out is their scoring per qtr ... even for first 3 qtrs, and all of their margin for the year was in Q4.

Anyway, in press conference, Spack said their receivers are really good and know how to go after the ball. Our secondary is usually good in coverage, so we'll see how that aspect goes. Bottom line, they haven't faced a defense like ours, nor did they come close to facing MVFC level defenses all year like we had to deal with .. Austin Peay is way up there in defensive yards per play, but did that against #77 SOS. Montana St defense ranks 39th .. they lost to both.

So hoping our front 7 can control the LOS and make some big plays to put them on their heels early, and force a few TOs. Their transfer QB did well a year ago, but fell off this year .. so something isn't clicking on that side of ball for them either. Then hope for couple breaks on offense and special teams to be the difference in scoring.

Team Stats (9-3, 7-1)



Statistic
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Opponents


SCORING


Points Per Game
29.33
25.00


Total
352
300


FIRST DOWNS


Rushing
99
79


Passing
103
121


Penalty
27
30


Total
229
230


RUSHING


Yards Gained
2287
1977


Yards Lost
294
321


Attempts
458
433


Average Per Attempt
4.4
3.8


Avg. Per Game
166.1
138.0


Touchdowns
24
21


Total
1993
1656


PASSING


Att-Comp-Int
346-192-12
424-229-14


Avg. Per Attempt
7.03
6.80


Avg. Per Game
202.83
240.42


Touchdowns
18
14


Total
2434
2885


TOTAL OFFENSE


Total Plays
804
857


Avg. Per Play
5.5
5.3


Avg. Per Game
368.9
378.4


Total Yards
4427
4541


Touchdowns
45
38

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm bored trying to finish out a slow holiday work week so figured I'd get these last few game threads started.

Here's how the numbers break down for these two:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49119778871_a949ea4ed0_o.jpg

It's kind of hard to figure out how SEMO is 9-3 looking at their numbers and they have needed a few comebacks late in the year to get there. Illinois St is hurting on offense after the loss of QB Brady Davis. Their defense is stout but if their offense can't score points all it takes is one slip up and they're behind the 8 ball. 5dimes has Illinois St as a 2.5 point road favorite. Massey predicts a 20-18 Illinois St win and Sagarin has them as basically a pick 'em factoring in homefield advantage for SEMO.

I think it's a low scoring game where the home team is able to score just enough to win. SEMO by a FG. Who do you have winning and why?
Picture what our defense could do if our offense could figure out how to stay on field. There are games our defense is just exhausted going into Q4. The only reason our time of possession is 30 mins is because we pass so little (and with very low completion rate) and take our sweet time in huddle. Spack has never been a hurry up offense guy anyway, but this year slow play is an absolute necessity with our offensive strategy to spare our defense yet another quick trip back into field.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Picture what our defense could do if our offense could figure out how to stay on field. There are games our defense is just exhausted going into Q4. The only reason our time of possession is 30 mins is because we pass so little (and with very low completion rate) and take our sweet time in huddle. Spack has never been a hurry up offense guy anyway, but this year slow play is an absolute necessity with our offensive strategy to spare our defense yet another quick trip back into field.


Redbird, your stats are all fine and dandy but with Davis gone (and he was not that good), Ill State is not a good team offensively. Against YSU they looked like total crap. It that fixed in 1 week? Has the backup QB significantly improved in 1 week?

IMO, SEMO just needs to put 8 in the box and play outside man with the corners and they win the game.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Redbird, your stats are all fine and dandy but with Davis gone (and he was not that good), Ill State is not a good team offensively. Against YSU they looked like total crap. It that fixed in 1 week? Has the backup QB significantly improved in 1 week?

IMO, SEMO just needs to put 8 in the box and play outside man with the corners and they win the game.
No doubt our offense was weak before Davis went down and is even weaker now. We're going to need all hands/teams on deck to score point .. I'm including defense and special teams because it's not likely our offense will be moving chains very consistently. Were going with the sual threat RS FR ... dual is a bit overstated. But ny guess is it can't be any worse than YSU or the last 3 qtrs of MoST games. Gotta wear my fan hat and hope for couple of big plays or lucky breaks on offense to help loosen things up some. That and hoping our defense can crank ot up a notch so they're as flustered offensively as we are.

One difference now compared 2 last games .. those games we were playing teams with nothing to lose. Now the tables are turned .. expectations are low for us offensively and most people are picking SEMO. It's not like they were ringing up many impressive wins. In that sense they were pretty similar to us.

But yes, our offensive outlook is not good. But I still think we can win a lower scoring game.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So I know AGS is dying to know how my smoked Turkey is turning out. So found a few more sites that supported the 4-5 hour smoker range. At 4 hours I hit 159 degrees and then turned it down since we were ahead of schedule .. or so we thought. But then I took it of and I quickly realized it hit the stall and the temp dropped all the way to 145. So I had to pop it back in the smoker and now waiting for it to climb back to 158.

The lesson learned ? Saturday we should go with both quarterbacks since either one could hit the infamous stall.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Big run by Robinson

[BisonFan02]

Gonna be a heavy dose of Robinson all game.

[Schism55]

SEMO starting backup QB as well... epic rock fight inc.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Ill State scores first 7-0

[semobison]

The Redbirds are physical, maybe they won't have to pass the football!

[Professor Chaos]

It's gonna be a long day for SEMO if they can't slow down Robinson. Coming into the game they had to know he was about the only guy on the Redbird offense that will hurt them. So if they're not stopping him now when will they?

Now Illinois St returns a fumble for TD... being reviewed now. If this stands it might already be over with a 14 point Illinois St lead. Their defense is very good.

[centennial]

13-0 LMAO

Edit: OVERTURNED!!!??

[BisonFan02]

ISUr got screwed there.

[Professor Chaos]

Wow.… that's a horrible call to overturn that.

Not a good look for this CAA crew.

[ST_Lawson]

Surprising they overturned that. Looked like the ball was moving before he hit the ground, and they'd have had to find enough evidence to overturn the TD as it was called on the field...idk. Either way, it doesn't look like SEMO has much of an answer for Robinson at this point. They just gotta hope he gets tired eventually I think.

[centennial]

Wow.… that's a horrible call to overturn that.

Not a good look for this CAA crew.

CAA best league crew.

[Bear84]

Sure looked like a fumble to me. SEMO looking rattled.

[Redbird 4th & short]

just horrible reversal, could not believe how long it took to make the decision ... zero doubt.

[Professor Chaos]

CAA best league crew.
I'll never forget that it was a CAA crew that looked so horrendously overmatched in that 2014 2nd round playoff game between NDSU and SDSU. Bar none the worst officiated playoff game I've ever seen NDSU play in (and I've seen a bunch).

[centennial]

#3 pulled the helmet off clearly!

[centennial]

The officiating is awful. That fake had 2 holds.

[Redbird 4th & short]

we are getting zero help from officials so far .. hoping this is pissing our players off.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Robinson is just having his way .. close to 150 yards already

[Professor Chaos]

James Robinson on pace for about 600 rushing yards in this game.

[Redbird 4th & short]

good to see they caught that hold on Robinsons TD run

[Bisonator]

SEMO's defense is getting shredded.

[Redbird 4th & short]

so we're up 21-0 now ... right ????

[Professor Chaos]

so we're up 21-0 now ... right ????
Luckily it looks like your Redbirds won't need that extra TD but man that was awful.

I wonder if they claimed that the receiver never completed the process of the catch so they ruled it incomplete. Couldn't hear any of the (lengthy) explanation from the referee on the overturn since his mic was out at the time for some reason.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Luckily it looks like your Redbirds won't need that extra TD but man that was awful.

I wonder if they claimed that the receiver never completed the process of the catch so they ruled it incomplete. Couldn't hear any of the (lengthy) explanation from the referee on the overturn since his mic was out at the time for some reason.
That is what announcers wondered, but then confirmed otherwise .. it was ruled a catch. He caught and took a couple steps.

[centennial]

Luckily it looks like your Redbirds won't need that extra TD but man that was awful.

I wonder if they claimed that the receiver never completed the process of the catch so they ruled it incomplete. Couldn't hear any of the (lengthy) explanation from the referee on the overturn since his mic was out at the time for some reason.

It had to have been ruled an incomplete catch. That's what I thought too, possible incomplete catch.





Secures control of a live ball in flight before the ball touches the ground, and touches the ground in bounds with any part of his body, and then maintains control of the ball long enough to enable him to perform an act common to the game, i.e., long enough to pitch or hand the ball, advance it, avoid or ward off an opponent, etc.

[Redbird 4th & short]

That is what announcers wondered, but then confirmed otherwise .. it was ruled a catch. He caught and took a couple steps.

just checked online stats, they recorded it as incomplete pass ... it was not incomplete either.

[Prime Power]

These officials are ****ing pathetic.

[Professor Chaos]

Don't watch enough Illinois St to know for sure but it looks like Robinson is gassed.

Can't really blame him if he is.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Ill State with a TD pass.....up 21-3

[Redbird 4th & short]

WR Edgar is back !!!!!!!!!!

[Professor Chaos]

TD Illinois St.

That was such a great throw by Jefferson. Had pressure in his face and dropped it in a bucket from 40 yards out. I'd say Illinois St has found their QB of the future.

[Schism55]

Nice throw and catch!

[Prime Power]

This a surprise so far considering what I saw from ISU last week against YSU.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Don't watch enough Illinois St to know for sure but it looks like Robinson is gassed.

Can't really blame him if he is.
yes he does .. half time will help some.

[Bison56]

This a surprise so far considering what I saw from ISU last week against YSU.

It's an OVC team.

[steelbison]

TD Illinois St.

That was such a great throw by Jefferson. Had pressure in his face and dropped it in a bucket from 40 yards out. I'd say Illinois St has found their QB of the future.

Settle, that was one good throw.

[BEAR]

we are getting zero help from officials so far .. hoping this is pissing our players off.

Wait til you experience the SLC officials. xlolx

Also, did I hear SEMO is without their starting QB?

[Schism55]

Settle, that was one good throw.
That may very well be the only one they need xthumbsupx

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Robinson has 22 carries for 188 yards at the half.....xeekx

[semobison]

The Redbirds problem the end of the season is they had no passing game whatsoever. If they can throw the ball at all they can be a tough opponent for a lot of playoff teams. They play good defense and have a very physical run game.

[Professor Chaos]

Settle, that was one good throw.
Have you seen their QBs the last game and a half before this one? That's pretty much all it takes to secure the job at this point.

[skinny_uncle]

Robinson has 22 carries for 188 yards at the half.....xeekx

Robinson is a beast.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Have you seen their QBs the last game and a half before this one? That's pretty much all it takes to secure the job at this point.
Spack is hard on his QBs .. lot of pressure to make top 8 seed made things worse. With playoff here, I think we've come to accept our new reality. Expectations are also down. So that helps release some of the built up pressure.

[centennial]

Awful refs. No catch, I saw it without the replay.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Robinson over 200 now....

[Redbird 4th & short]

Awful refs. No catch, I saw it without the replay.
thought so .. replay was shown briefly and it was at least highly questionable.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Taylor with a pick in red zone !!!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Redbird defense has come to play.

SEMO is done.

[Redbird 4th & short]

and we miss the easy FG .. our kicker has been very solid this year after a terrible year in 2018

[Redbird 4th & short]

blatant offensive interference on that long SEMO catch .. clearly pushed our guy to ground then jumped to make catch .. blatant and right in front of the official.

[centennial]

OPI not called. I mean if the corner falls from the push off, you have to call it right?

[centennial]

Game seems out of reach for SEMO. Very hard to come back now.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Robinson: 35 carries for 241 yards...so far

[Redbird 4th & short]

Robinsson finished with 41 carries for 297 yards .. our OL just dominated the LOS .. crazy considering everyone knew we would run Robinson all game. Very happy with how steady our QB played .. nothing spectacular, but made very few mistakes. Defense was tough and stout when it needed to be. They scored 2 FGs .. one after the fake punt, one after the obvious PI on deep ball.

I do think the light rain in comfortable 60 degree temps all game favored us more than them .. that and we controlled the trenches. On to UCA again ... we were there in 2016, went well, but did not end well at all.

[Schism55]

Robinsson finished with 41 carries for 297 yards .. our OL just dominated the LOS .. crazy considering everyone knew we would run Robinson all game. Very happy with how steady our QB played .. nothing spectacular, but made very few mistakes. Defense was tough and stout when it needed to be. They scored 2 FGs .. one after the fake punt, one after the obvious PI on deep ball.

I do think the light rain in comfortable 60 degree temps all game favored us more than them .. that and we controlled the trenches. On to UCA again ... we were there in 2016, went well, but did not end well at all.
Hats off to that crew, very impressive.
Did SEMO not see last weeks Ill St game? I mean, put 8-9 guys in the box and make ISUr QB beat you.
Redbirds gonna do some damage if they can keep this mojo working.

[BEAR]

See you Saturday Redbirds!

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

See you Saturday Redbirds!


Bear: Is UCA going to stack the box to stop Robinson?

[BEAR]

Bear: Is UCA going to stack the box to stop Robinson?

I'll let you know in the second half. xlolx

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I had SEMO in this one. Clearly underestimated a wounded Redbird team. Like Austin Peay, SEMO was consistently good for much of the year. This is an impressive win imo for ISUr.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Hats off to that crew, very impressive.
Did SEMO not see last weeks Ill St game? I mean, put 8-9 guys in the box and make ISUr QB beat you.
Redbirds gonna do some damage if they can keep this mojo working.
I think difference was simply this:

1. our OL was used to playing better front 7's in MVFC and teams who knew us way better than SEMO

2. top 8 seed pressure was off, expectations were lower, and our QB had a full week to prepare .. he looked completely under control, made no big mistakes

3. they may play 5 up front and they definitely stacked the box, but it's actually a 3-3-5 as far as personnel .. so we had a size advantage in trenches with our 2 TEs and FB playing a lot of reps. Their OLBs weighted 225 as psuedo DEs, and their DBs playing up as psuedo LBers weighed maybe 190

Bottom line, when youre used to playing NDSU, SDSU, and UNI front 7's, suddenly those blocks get a little easier. Robinson only needs a little room to get his momentum going and he got plenty today .. their back 8 struggled to tackle him once he got moving.

I don't know anything about UCA yet.

[Bisonator]

Congrats to the Redbirds!

[BEAR]

I don't know anything about UCA yet.

Neither do we! xlolx

[Redbird 4th & short]

I had SEMO in this one. Clearly underestimated a wounded Redbird team. Like Austin Peay, SEMO was consistently good for much of the year. This is an impressive win imo for ISUr.
as someone who recognized how bad our offense was playing, the more I dug into SEMO stats and scores playing in the OVC, the more I thought we could definitely win a lower scoring game. And when forecast said light rains, I thought that would hekp us more than them. Their starting QB was out for 2.5 qtrs, but ours was out all game .. and we don't really have a 2nd stringer .. so not giving anything back !!! :)

But we played better than i expected .. just not surprised we won. I honestly thought we were the better team even without a QB. We just needed someone who wouldnt crap the bed.

[knit35]

Congrats ISUr

[Redbird 4th & short]

Neither do we! xlolx
all I know is we owe you a 4th qtr from last time xnodx

[Redbird 4th & short]

all I know is we owe you a 4th qtr from last time xnodx
oh .. and thanks for letting Scottie Pippen walk on as a FR, he turned out ok.


https://media0.giphy.com/media/1R3Plhl2ttLZm/source.gif
(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiW74i1nJPmAhVHvZ4KHSgbC04QjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgiphy.com%2Fgifs%2Fnba-basketball-scottie-pippen-1R3Plhl2ttLZm&psig=AOvVaw2PaCjkXxril_WctP-EDVzc&ust=1575247506538891)

[semobison]

I think difference was simply this:

1. our OL was used to playing better front 7's in MVFC and teams who knew us way better than SEMO

2. top 8 seed pressure was off, expectations were lower, and our QB had a full week to prepare .. he looked completely under control, made no big mistakes

3. they may play 5 up front and they definitely stacked the box, but it's actually a 3-3-5 as far as personnel .. so we had a size advantage in trenches with our 2 TEs and FB playing a lot of reps. Their OLBs weighted 225 as psuedo DEs, and their DBs playing up as psuedo LBers weighed maybe 190

Bottom line, when youre used to playing NDSU, SDSU, and UNI front 7's, suddenly those blocks get a little easier. Robinson only needs a little room to get his momentum going and he got plenty today .. their back 8 struggled to tackle him once he got moving.

I don't know anything about UCA yet.

Good post! I always felt that NDSU plays more physical teams in conference play than teams we have played in our first or second round games from other conferences. I picked the Redbirds in this one. Good luck in Arkansas!

[Redbird 4th & short]

Good post! I always felt that NDSU plays more physical teams in conference play than teams we have played in our first or second round games from other conferences. I picked the Redbirds in this one. Good luck in Arkansas!
thanks ... note, SEMO run defense ranked 33rd in FCS (yards per game), UCA ranks 39th. For comparison, ISUr ranks 22nd, NDSU ranks 28th, SDSU ranks 29th, and UNI ranks 15th. Despite that ranking, I don't imagine SEMO run defense is even close to NDSU or SDSU. It's just a different level of line play in MVFC compared to OVC and possibly Southland. Though I do believe Southland is stronger than OVC, certainly deeper. Things went our way today .. next week could be different, but I do feel like UCA is a game we can win, even with our QB throwing just 7 passes.

https://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

[mvfcfan]

Congrats on the win Redbirds! Hope you guys can roll UCA next weekend and Robinson can get a couple hundred more yards. As far as I am concerned he deserves to win the Walter Peyton Award this year.