Playoff attendance predictions: first round

[JayJ79]

what do you think the games will draw, attendance-wise.

I'm guessing 5K for USD @ UNI

[Reign of Terrier]

2,000 for Wofford and Kennesaw

[Professor Chaos]

Nicholls/UND would be my guess and they'll probably land between 8k and 9k. Austin Peay/Furman is a wild card though. APSU has never been in the playoffs much less hosted and they averaged nearly 8k during the regular season. Could see them maybe being the highest. SLU and SEMO could draw 5k+ as well. The other 4 I'd say will be 5k or under I think.

[apaladin]

Nicholls/UND would be my guess and they'll probably land between 8k and 9k. Austin Peay/Furman in a will card though. APSU has never been in the playoffs much less hosted and they averaged nearly 8k during the regular season. Could see them maybe being the highest. SLU and SEMO could draw 5k+ as well. The other 4 I'd say will be 5k or under I think.

Supposed to rain all day in Clarksville so maybe 3K. I think weather will have an affect on most if not all games except WC/KSU. I think <5k will be the norm.

[Outsider1]

Are 8-9k really the top numbers for FCS playoffs?

[Sir William]

Are 8-9k really the top numbers for FCS playoffs?
First round games during Thanksgiving weekend... yeah, those numbers are about right.

[JayJ79]

Are 8-9k really the top numbers for FCS playoffs?
FCS playoffs as a whole? no.
Thanksgiving weekend, outside of a handful of teams that always seems to draw well (none of whom are playing this weekend), yeah, pretty much.

[Professor Chaos]

Are 8-9k really the top numbers for FCS playoffs?
For this weekend they are. Only team hosting that averaged more than 9k in the regular season was UNI and they've averaged 4k their last 2 years hosting on Thanksgiving weekend.

The weekend after this one there will be some good attendance numbers with the Montana schools, NDSU, and JMU all hosting and having 2 weeks to sell tickets.

[Catbooster]

Are 8-9k really the top numbers for FCS playoffs?
For games that no one knew who would be playing or where, when the students are largely gone home for the Thanksgiving holiday, only a week's notice, etc. - Yes.

I haven't looked it up to check, but I think we average probably 18k-19k attendance. On Thanksgiving weekend I think we've gotten around 12k (say 2/3 normal). Since we have a bye, I'm hoping 14k-16k (3/4 normal)?

I don't think any of the top attendance schools are hosting in the 1st round this year.

[katss07]

SELA and Nicholls always draw well. Rain or shine, no matter what time of year. Nicholls has drawn well in the first round. I’d expect 8k-10k for those games.

[Professor Chaos]

For reference these are the 2019 regular season attendance averages for the playoff host teams this weekend.

UNI: 9,213
Austin Peay: 7,317
SLU: 7,002
Nicholls: 6,730
Wofford: 4,775
SEMO: 4,498
Albany: 4,191
Monmouth: 2,774

[JayJ79]

For reference these are the 2019 regular season attendance averages for the playoff host teams this weekend.

UNI: 9,213
Austin Peay: 7,317
SLU: 7,002
Nicholls: 6,730
Wofford: 4,775
SEMO: 4,498
Albany: 4,191
Monmouth: 2,774
I'm still convinced that schools use different methods to calculate playoff attendance numbers than they do for regular season numbers.

[wapiti]

For reference these are the 2019 regular season attendance averages for the playoff host teams this weekend.

UNI: 9,213
Austin Peay: 7,317
SLU: 7,002
Nicholls: 6,730
Wofford: 4,775
SEMO: 4,498
Albany: 4,191
Monmouth: 2,774

So if we go with 2/3 of normal That puts it at:
UNI: 9,213----------- 6080
Austin Peay: 7,317-- 4864
SLU: 7,002----------- 4621
Nicholls: 6,730------- 4441
Wofford: 4,775------- 3151
SEMO: 4,498--------- 2968
Albany: 4,191-------- 2766
Monmouth: 2,774----1830

Average --------------3841

[Redbird 4th & short]

For games that no one knew who would be playing or where, when the students are largely gone home for the Thanksgiving holiday, only a week's notice, etc. - Yes.

I haven't looked it up to check, but I think we average probably 18k-19k attendance. On Thanksgiving weekend I think we've gotten around 12k (say 2/3 normal). Since we have a bye, I'm hoping 14k-16k (3/4 normal)?

I don't think any of the top attendance schools are hosting in the 1st round this year.
Hey .. in your little clip in your signature ... I hope maroon #18 was their kicker with a 4.00 GPA because that might be the weakest hit I've ever seen .. ever. The leg action after the missed tackle was cute .. like something you might see in pee wee football.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm still convinced that schools use different methods to calculate playoff attendance numbers than they do for regular season numbers.
I agree. I think playoff attendance is turnstile count (tickets scanned) whereas in the regular season a lot of schools just report tickets sold whether they're used or not. I also think most schools count things like the band in the regular season numbers that they won't count for the playoffs.

Invariably every year several people will say something like "I was there and there's no way there was only that many people in attendance". I think it's because we've been trained to estimate attendance using inflated regular season numbers as the baseline so when the real numbers come out in the playoffs they seem low.

[ejjones]

Bayou Classic: I’m going with 55K-60K.

[ST_Lawson]

I'm still convinced that schools use different methods to calculate playoff attendance numbers than they do for regular season numbers.

I'm sure many of them do. I know we used to ~10-15 years ago.

[wapiti]

Would regular season attendance numbers include everyone in the stadium?? Including players, coaches, medical, concession workers, security,media,...

Where as playoffs may only include fans in the seats or tickets sold?

[Sader87]

Does the NCAA get a % of the playoff ticket revenue? There may lie your answer with regards to "honest" reporting of attendance in the post-season vs regular season.

I think HC will be fairly well represented at Monmouth...HC has fairly big (such as it is) alumni-base in the metro-NYC area. I'll guess about 3500 or so.

Game probably would have drawn maybe twice that at Fitton....but MU earned the home site imo.

[caribbeanhen]

attendance will depend on who is doing the counting

[UAalum72]

I’ll be thrilled if Albany gets 4000; maybe if CCSU brings 1500

[McNeese75]

Bayou Classic: I going with 55K-60K.

Talking football here, not a battle of the bands.

[Professor]

Low

[Professor]

Bayou Classic: I going with 55K-60K. Last year had 67,871

I think this one is 63K plus. SWAC West title is on the line

[Professor]

Talking football here, not a battle of the bands.

Bwhahaha and what's sad is that Southern and their band helped you set the record in your stadium. Apparently your fans like battle of the bands

[McNeese75]

No, we prefer football

[JayJ79]

Bayou Classic: I going with 55K-60K.
not a playoff, isn't relevant to this discussion

[Catbooster]

Hey .. in your little clip in your signature ... I hope maroon #18 was their kicker with a 4.00 GPA because that might be the weakest hit I've ever seen .. ever. The leg action after the missed tackle was cute .. like something you might see in pee wee football.


2016 Cat/Griz Nick LaSane running

I couldn't remember who it was but I didn't remember it being a kicker. You made me curious so I checked their 2016 roster - it was a cornerback

Had to put that up for Cat/Griz week.

[Hood]

Both the high schools in Thibodaux were knocked out of the HS playoffs so the band wagoners have to find something else to do with their weekend and will be at the Nicholls game. It won't exceed 10k but a good 8500-9000 would be fair.

[PantherRob82]

what do you think the games will draw, attendance-wise.

I'm guessing 5K for USD @ UNI

I'll take the under. xlolx

[JayJ79]

I'll take the under. xlolx
was trying to be positive

[GAD]

Talking football here, not a battle of the bands.
Battle of the bands is Friday night 11/29/19 it alone will draw 35k-45k
btw whats the average draw of a McNeese State home playoff game?

[cx500d]

Battle of the bands is Friday night 11/29/19 it alone will draw 35k-45k
btw whats the average draw of a McNeese State home playoff game?

Do they have them?

[ejjones]

not a playoff, isn't relevant to this discussion
Let’s make it relevant...

Bayou Classic > all 8 playoff games combined

Small wager.

[crusader11]

Monmouth: 2,774

Is that really all Monmouth draws?

That’s a shame for a quality team.

There could be as many HC fans as Monmouth on Saturday.

[LetsGoPeay]

5,000 would seem about right for the APSU/Furman game. If the rain holds off, we may reach that 7,000 mark. I know the rain may determine if I attend or not. I can do a light rain. But I'm not sitting out in a steady moderate to heavy rain this time of year. I'm a U of Tennessee alumni, and I was at the "monsoon game" back in 1992 when we played Florida. That 2nd quarter deluge was some of the hardest rain I've ever seen in a non-thunderstorm.

Hopefully the good Lord will give us a 3 hour window of rain-free weather in Clarksville.

[MUHAWKS]

Is that really all Monmouth draws?

That’s a shame for a quality team.

There could be as many HC fans as Monmouth on Saturday.


My man- you are telling me.. It is literally the ONLY gripe I now have with our program. And it really is not the fault of the program. The students rarely show up. The local community seems to be more focused on the 200 HS football games being played. I do not know what the issue is- We have had a solid program with numerous NFL guys. Its cheap and easy to get to. With that said, our facilities our top notch, the tailgating is always solid and I think for THIS game we will have a packed house. They are actually marketing this game a bita nd we know HC will travel well, so we are expecting 5-6k- which will make for a very intimate and energetic atmosphere on a nice cool fall day.

But yeah, our attendance sucks.

[Dane96]

If this game wasn't over the holiday weekend and the students were out, then I'd suspect we'd have 6500 at the game. With the holiday weekend and predicted weather, I would suppose 3000 is the number.

[Reign of Terrier]

My man- you are telling me.. It is literally the ONLY gripe I now have with our program. And it really is not the fault of the program. The students rarely show up. The local community seems to be more focused on the 200 HS football games being played. I do not know what the issue is- We have had a solid program with numerous NFL guys. Its cheap and easy to get to. With that said, our facilities our top notch, the tailgating is always solid and I think for THIS game we will have a packed house. They are actually marketing this game a bita nd we know HC will travel well, so we are expecting 5-6k- which will make for a very intimate and energetic atmosphere on a nice cool fall day.

But yeah, our attendance sucks.

Wofford has the same problem, and let me say....

It's not a big deal.

The average stadium at this level is half empty. I want to say average attendance is like 7,000 per game nation-wide (if that) and the average stadium size is probably less than 15,000.

I was thinking about this the other day, but the number of programs east of the Mississippi that were both (relatively) competitive at this level and could draw 15-20,000 really have packed up and left: App State, Liberty, Old Dominion, and Georgia Southern, to name a few.

In a way, it sucks because it was fun to have those programs at this level, but in another way, it's kind of fitting. In another thread (I believe it was the Gateway conference 2.0) there's a very interesting discussion and I think Clenz made the point that cost control is the point of this subdivision. Really, the FCS exists (outside of the general purpose to give kids opportunities to play ball for free) so schools in poorer states don't have to break their budget to play division one, and so small schools (like Wofford, Furman, the Patriot League) can be division one an sponsor competitive D1 basketball programs (the costs of doing that are much lower)

As a fan of a team that plays in a stadium way to big for what we need (Wofford has ~20k people living who have ever affiliated with the college as a student, professor, janitor, etc. and our stadium sits 13k; the stadium was built for Spartanburg events, basically), but has a good team, I hate it that our players play in a half-empty stadium. But this level doesn't exist "for" the fans. It exists for those players. It's never going to be competitive ratings-wise with the FBS (P5 or G5), so bad attendance in a way is part of the deal.

If your attendance sucks, you should take a page out of Campbell's program. Own it. Build a smaller stadium and pack it out. It's a better use of your money and it's more fun for everyone. If I could wind down the clock for my team and give that advice in the mid-90s, it's what I'd recommend.

[Dane96]

Wofford has the same problem, and let me say....

It's not a big deal.

The average stadium at this level is half empty. I want to say average attendance is like 7,000 per game nation-wide (if that) and the average stadium size is probably less than 15,000.

I was thinking about this the other day, but the number of programs east of the Mississippi that were both (relatively) competitive at this level and could draw 15-20,000 really have packed up and left: App State, Liberty, Old Dominion, and Georgia Southern, to name a few.

In a way, it sucks because it was fun to have those programs at this level, but in another way, it's kind of fitting. In another thread (I believe it was the Gateway conference 2.0) there's a very interesting discussion and I think Clenz made the point that cost control is the point of this subdivision. Really, the FCS exists (outside of the general purpose to give kids opportunities to play ball for free) so schools in poorer states don't have to break their budget to play division one, and so small schools (like Wofford, Furman, the Patriot League) can be division one an sponsor competitive D1 basketball programs (the costs of doing that are much lower)

As a fan of a team that plays in a stadium way to big for what we need (Wofford has ~20k people living who have ever affiliated with the college as a student, professor, janitor, etc. and our stadium sits 13k; the stadium was built for Spartanburg events, basically), but has a good team, I hate it that our players play in a half-empty stadium. But this level doesn't exist "for" the fans. It exists for those players. It's never going to be competitive ratings-wise with the FBS (P5 or G5), so bad attendance in a way is part of the deal.

If your attendance sucks, you should take a page out of Campbell's program. Own it. Build a smaller stadium and pack it out. It's a better use of your money and it's more fun for everyone. If I could wind down the clock for my team and give that advice in the mid-90s, it's what I'd recommend.

TV has killed attendance. This problem has hit the FBS level. Unless you are an SEC team or a top tier P-5 team, you are struggling. MAC stadiums are virtually empty. Notre Dame...NOTRE DAME...shockingly just had their sell-out streak ended against a rival (Navy). Granted, they still were almost full...it's quite shocking.

I love tech...but the current generation of students (and casual fans that are older) are relying on tech rather than being social in a non-stay home/computer experience.

Pretty sad.

[Reign of Terrier]

TV has killed attendance. This problem has hit the FBS level. Unless you are an SEC team or a top tier P-5 team, you are struggling. MAC stadiums are virtually empty. Notre Dame...NOTRE DAME...shockingly just had their sell-out streak ended against a rival (Navy). Granted, they still were almost full...it's quite shocking.

I love tech...but the current generation of students (and casual fans that are older) are relying on tech rather than being social in a non-stay home/computer experience.

Pretty sad.

It's more complicated than that. At the University of South Carolina, I hear there's a $300 fee just to be considered for season tickets, they're in such demand (even when they suck). Then there's the fees to the tickets themselves, parking, the time commitment to get to the game, etc. You have a whole generation of people who have been doing this, and the facilities and atmosphere have grown in such a way that it's hard for new people to get in. For them, it's easier to watch at home.

At the FCS level, we don't have those problems. It's more "no one cares as much"

[UNHWildcat18]

TV has killed attendance. This problem has hit the FBS level. Unless you are an SEC team or a top tier P-5 team, you are struggling. MAC stadiums are virtually empty. Notre Dame...NOTRE DAME...shockingly just had their sell-out streak ended against a rival (Navy). Granted, they still were almost full...it's quite shocking.

I love tech...but the current generation of students (and casual fans that are older) are relying on tech rather than being social in a non-stay home/computer experience.

Pretty sad.

Definitely a lot of factors for sure. UNH had an average of 10,105 tickets sold per game, but 3 of the games were 7900 7900 and 7500. Homecoming at 17,132 Home opener at 10,061

TV was NECN for the home opener vs URI
the rest was NBC Sports Boston.
UNH really had an ideal TV situation this year, but there were definitely less fans in the stands this year than last year, regardless of how many tickets sold.

[neverobeyed]

For this weekend they are. Only team hosting that averaged more than 9k in the regular season was UNI and they've averaged 4k their last 2 years hosting on Thanksgiving weekend.

The weekend after this one there will be some good attendance numbers with the Montana schools, NDSU, and JMU all hosting and having 2 weeks to sell tickets.

Postgame, Rima (UNI announcer) reported the attendance at 3,743 in the UNI-Dome.

[Hood]

Both the high schools in Thibodaux were knocked out of the HS playoffs so the band wagoners have to find something else to do with their weekend and will be at the Nicholls game. It won't exceed 10k but a good 8500-9000 would be fair.
Well I was way off: ATTENDANCE:
7569

[Hammerhead]

A few FCS teams have a demand for tickets. We pay $100/year to NDSU’s booster club and the chance to buy a pair of tickets to three games before the general public and they are still up high in an end zone.
It's more complicated than that. At the University of South Carolina, I hear there's a $300 fee just to be considered for season tickets, they're in such demand (even when they suck). Then there's the fees to the tickets themselves, parking, the time commitment to get to the game, etc. You have a whole generation of people who have been doing this, and the facilities and atmosphere have grown in such a way that it's hard for new people to get in. For them, it's easier to watch at home.

At the FCS level, we don't have those problems. It's more "no one cares as much"

[DFW HOYA]

2,774? Is that really all Monmouth draws?

That’s a shame for a quality team.

There could be as many HC fans as Monmouth on Saturday.

Not far off: 2,817.

[Sader87]

HC drew 13K hosting Western Carolina 1st round in 1983...at the time it was considered a disappointing turnout....times, they are a changin'....

[ejjones]

https://twitter.com/fcs_stats/status/1200970759725867008?s=21

I was WAY off: Bayou Classic 68,000
First Round (8 game total): 28,777
2.36 Ratio

[R.A.]

Bayou Classic: I’m going with 55K-60K.

68,314

http://www.gojagsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPID=96902&DB_OEM_ID=28100&ATCLID=211816607

[R.A.]

15,252

Turkey Day Classic

Prairie View vs Alabama State

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401128451
------------------------------------------------

This is supposed to be a rivalry game between Tuskegee and Alabama State, but just like with the FCS Playoffs, the Division II Playoffs start on the last weekend in November when students are off campus.

-DII and FCS rather keep their playoff start dates as they are and have miserable attendance, than to just move the start dates one week later and let the SWAC and SIAC have their games, then send their automatic bid teams to the playoffs.

-DII and FCS rather lose money than see the HBCU Conferences be properly included. Gotta try and take something away from us.xthumbsupx

[Professor Chaos]

15,252

Turkey Day Classic

Prairie View vs Alabama State

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401128451
------------------------------------------------

This is supposed to be a rivalry game between Tuskegee and Alabama State, but just like with the FCS Playoffs, the Division II Playoffs start on the last weekend in November when students are off campus.

-DII and FCS rather keep their playoff start dates as they are and have miserable attendance, than to just move the start dates one week later and let the SWAC and SIAC have their games, then send their automatic bid teams to the playoffs.

-DII and FCS rather lose money than see the HBCU Conferences be properly included. Gotta try and take something away from us.xthumbsupx
Do you listen at all when it is explained to you why it isn't logistically possible (or prudent) to move the playoff schedule back a week? Or do you just enjoy being a victim that much?

[kalm]

15,252

Turkey Day Classic

Prairie View vs Alabama State

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401128451
------------------------------------------------

This is supposed to be a rivalry game between Tuskegee and Alabama State, but just like with the FCS Playoffs, the Division II Playoffs start on the last weekend in November when students are off campus.

-DII and FCS rather keep their playoff start dates as they are and have miserable attendance, than to just move the start dates one week later and let the SWAC and SIAC have their games, then send their automatic bid teams to the playoffs.

-DII and FCS rather lose money than see the HBCU Conferences be properly included. Gotta try and take something away from us.xthumbsupx

Say what? It’s a conspiracy to keep the HBCU’s out of the playoffs?

Okeedokee

[NY Crusader 2010]

I agree. I think playoff attendance is turnstile count (tickets scanned) whereas in the regular season a lot of schools just report tickets sold whether they're used or not. I also think most schools count things like the band in the regular season numbers that they won't count for the playoffs.

Invariably every year several people will say something like "I was there and there's no way there was only that many people in attendance". I think it's because we've been trained to estimate attendance using inflated regular season numbers as the baseline so when the real numbers come out in the playoffs they seem low.

This analysis is spot on.

[TheKingpin28]

15,252

Turkey Day Classic

Prairie View vs Alabama State

https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401128451
------------------------------------------------

This is supposed to be a rivalry game between Tuskegee and Alabama State, but just like with the FCS Playoffs, the Division II Playoffs start on the last weekend in November when students are off campus.

-DII and FCS rather keep their playoff start dates as they are and have miserable attendance, than to just move the start dates one week later and let the SWAC and SIAC have their games, then send their automatic bid teams to the playoffs.

-DII and FCS rather lose money than see the HBCU Conferences be properly included. Gotta try and take something away from us.xthumbsupx

We are not moving the playoffs to the week of Christmas. Get over it. You took your ball and left. Cry more.

[NY Crusader 2010]

HC drew 13K hosting Western Carolina 1st round in 1983...at the time it was considered a disappointing turnout....times, they are a changin'....

Without consulting my most recent media guide, I'm also pretty sure that game wasn't held Thanksgiving weekend. Likely first Saturday in December since the field was only 8 teams back then. But in the event that we ever had the privilege to host a quarterfinal this day in age, we would probably be lucky to get 8-9K on a sunny afternoon.

[TheKingpin28]

Do you listen at all when it is explained to you why it isn't logistically possible (or prudent) to move the playoff schedule back a week? Or do you just enjoy being a victim that much?

If you haven't noticed, almost all, if not all of their posters here want all of the benefits of the FCS playoffs with none of the consequences that come with it. They cannot accept that SCSU was not one of the last 4 in.

[Sader87]

Without consulting my most recent media guide, I'm also pretty sure that game wasn't held Thanksgiving weekend. Likely first Saturday in December since the field was only 8 teams back then. But in the event that we ever had the privilege to host a quarterfinal this day in age, we would probably be lucky to get 8-9K on a sunny afternoon.

It was...forget the exact date but we had just played BC at Foxboro over Turkey Day weekend...unfortunately we got pretty banged up that game which helped WCU...lost a close one 28-21 to the Catamounts.

[Bisonoline]

It's more complicated than that. At the University of South Carolina, I hear there's a $300 fee just to be considered for season tickets, they're in such demand (even when they suck). Then there's the fees to the tickets themselves, parking, the time commitment to get to the game, etc. You have a whole generation of people who have been doing this, and the facilities and atmosphere have grown in such a way that it's hard for new people to get in. For them, it's easier to watch at home.

At the FCS level, we don't have those problems. It's more "no one cares as much"

Again you are wrong. NDSU has been selling their tickets like this for 14 years? I pay X amount to sit in a certain section and elevation. This is called a Teammaker donation. I then pay X amount for the tickets themselves.

https://gobison.com/documents/2019/2/6//Football_Season_Ticket_Seating_Chart_Prices_2019.p df?id=14195

[Professor]

If you haven't noticed, almost all, if not all of their posters here want all of the benefits of the FCS playoffs with none of the consequences that come with it. They cannot accept that SCSU was not one of the last 4 in.

What is the consequences of the FCS playoff....Low attendance?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Without consulting my most recent media guide, I'm also pretty sure that game wasn't held Thanksgiving weekend. Likely first Saturday in December since the field was only 8 teams back then. But in the event that we ever had the privilege to host a quarterfinal this day in age, we would probably be lucky to get 8-9K on a sunny afternoon.

Following 9/11 the first round was held in December. I thought they should have stuck with that setup in terms of avoiding Thanksgiving weekend. Some of the FBS crowds this week were awful.

[TheKingpin28]

What is the consequences of the FCS playoff....Low attendance?

Playing for a D1 National Title or a made-up "National Title".