View Full Version : Socon week 13 power rankings and pick em
Reign of Terrier
November 17th, 2019, 11:22 PM
The season is pretty much over for most of the conference. Lots of money games this week.
1. Wofford
2. Furman
3. Chattanooga
4. Citadel
5. Everyone else
Games:
Wofford @ Citadel
Point @ Furman
Chattanooga @ VMI
Western @ Bama
Samford @ Auburn
ETSU @ Vandy
Mercer @ UNC
Easy Picks: the FBS teams and Furman
Games of interest:
UTC/VMI: give me the Mocs. VMI doesn't have a defense. It's pretty much that simple.
Wofford/Citadel: give me Wofford for the sole possession of the socon title. A lot of ink has been spilled over Wofford's offense this season, but Conklin and Siefkis deserve a lot of credit for what they do on defense too. Right now the Socon has probably the best running game as a conference they've ever had, but Wofford has managed to not only be first in run defense, but if you take the Clemson game out, Wofford's only surrendering like 100 yards a game this year.
In fact, if you take the Clemson game out of Wofford's stats, Wofford has a top 10 defense and a top 12 offense.
On top of that, Wofford has pretty much owned the citadel offense since 2016. Chalk it up to our ability to replicate it or just being a good defense, but to surpass 20 points the citadel has needed defensive points and turnovers to put them in position. In fact, in the last 4 meetings, 41 of 65 points scored by the citadel were off turnovers, a safety, or with the ball placed on a short field with OT.
One big thing about Wofford this year is that we don't turn the ball over. We threw 4 picks against SC State. We fumbled once against Gardner Webb. We threw a pick on a hail Mary against ETSU and another against Clemson. So, we only have 2 turnovers against FCS competition since September.
The Citadel's defense is vulnerable and Wofford's peaking at the right time. The Terrier offense is extremely flexible, we don't just run the option. Heck, we beat Furman with smash mouth football. To put things in perspective our "option QB" only has 85 yards rushing over the last 3 games. This offense can lean heavily on the TO when we need it (see ETSU), throw it around a little bit (see UTC/Mercer) or just hit you square in the mouth. Thats not to say Joe Newman is Joe Montana, he's obviously not, but there's a reason why Wofford has over 450 yards per game against FCS offenses.
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bonarae
November 17th, 2019, 11:47 PM
Wofford
Furman
Chattanooga
Alabama (no chance for scalp even with Tua out; Tide is very strong on all fronts)
Auburn
Vandy
Tarholes
PaladinFan
November 18th, 2019, 06:19 AM
I guess I'll be pulling for Wofford to beat the Citadel and just take out one more team lurking around the bubble.
ElCid
November 18th, 2019, 07:08 AM
I guess I'll be pulling for Wofford to beat the Citadel and just take out one more team lurking around the bubble.
It's a long shot for sure, but if we beat Wofford, not so sure that that either you don't go, or we go. Weird situation. But we would have beaten both you and Wofford, we have the GaTech win, and 7 overall Div I wins. You would have lost to both of us, had only 7 wins as well. Yeah, I would be pulling for them if I were you...just in case. Of all the potential only "7" Div I win teams that might be considered, I think we might be most deserving if we win. But we are probably done, because Wofford is rolling and my Cadets are probably disheartened after last week. You never know though. Wofford could be up for a "we won the auto!" letdown maybe. I doubt it.
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 08:02 AM
I guess I'll be pulling for Wofford to beat the Citadel and just take out one more team lurking around the bubble.
But if The Citadel beats Wofford, the Paladin's share the SoCon title, correct?
I think Furman is in the playoffs either way - It's Chattanooga and The Citadel that are more longshots.
FUBeAR
November 18th, 2019, 08:28 AM
Goal #1 is always a SoCon Championship.
So FUBeAR will ignore the gag reflex & be a bellhop fan on Sat.
If the Playoff Committee decides to exclude a SoCon Champion from the Playoffs 2 years in a row, then, well, #FUATT to those Moronic Forecasters!
EDIT: That includes Chatt. if they are SoCon Co-Champs. Mocs are playing good ball & (assuming a win over VMI) are a dropped pass away from getting the SoCon Autobid & being outright SoCon Champs. How does 1 dropped pass in a 12 game season render a Team ‘unworthy?’
PaladinFan
November 18th, 2019, 08:38 AM
It's a long shot for sure, but if we beat Wofford, not so sure that that either you don't go, or we go. Weird situation. But we would have beaten both you and Wofford, we have the GaTech win, and 7 overall Div I wins. You would have lost to both of us, had only 7 wins as well. Yeah, I would be pulling for them if I were you...just in case. Of all the potential only "7" Div I win teams that might be considered, I think we might be most deserving if we win. But we are probably done, because Wofford is rolling and my Cadets are probably disheartened after last week. You never know though. Wofford could be up for a "we won the auto!" letdown maybe. I doubt it.
It's an interesting proposition. Even with the head to head win, it'd be hard to let the Citadel jump Furman in the pecking order due to the SoCon record. Furman pummeled two teams that beat the Citadel.
The Citadel has the GT win in their pocket. Virginia Tech, who Furman played a near draw, just beat GT 45-0 this week, though.
PaladinFan
November 18th, 2019, 08:40 AM
But if The Citadel beats Wofford, the Paladin's share the SoCon title, correct?
I think Furman is in the playoffs either way - It's Chattanooga and The Citadel that are more longshots.
Yes. Both would be 6-2.
I guess, technically, if UTC wins and Wofford loses, UTC would also have a share of the title, but would have lost to the two teams they were tied with.
Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2019, 08:43 AM
I think everyone should chill a bit about Furman not getting into the playoffs. I saw some posters preclude the possibility and kind of had a typed-up aneurysm and I think that talk has persisted.
As I've said multiple times, since the playoff expanded to 22 and then 24 teams, the only time the socon didn't get 2 teams in was the year only the first place team had 7 D1 wins (that year was 2014, which I wouldn't be surprised if the high number of D2 teams the conference played that year was a result of GSU/App/Elon suddenly leaving as announced in the 2012 offseason, it's hard to schedule two games that fast).
If the citadel beats Wofford, more power to them. They will have 3 of the best wins in the FCS. But I don't think they get in the playoffs.
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 08:52 AM
Yes. Both would be 6-2.
I guess, technically, if UTC wins and Wofford loses, UTC would also have a share of the title, but would have lost to the two teams they were tied with.
Yes, if Chattanooga wins at VMI and The Citadel beats Wofford, then Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga all share the SoCon title officially. I doubt we'd make the playoffs, but that's happened to Chattanooga before in 2013 where we had a share of the title and didn't get in.
It's nothing personal Wofford fans, but every Chattanooga fan will be pulling for the Bulldogs on Saturday. We'll also be pulling for any and all SoCon teams in playoff games.
Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2019, 09:00 AM
Yes, if Chattanooga wins at VMI and The Citadel beats Wofford, then Wofford, Furman, and Chattanooga all share the SoCon title officially. I doubt we'd make the playoffs, but that's happened to Chattanooga before in 2013 where we had a share of the title and didn't get in.
It's nothing personal Wofford fans, but every Chattanooga fan will be pulling for the Bulldogs on Saturday. We'll also be pulling for any and all SoCon teams in playoff games.
No hard feelings.
I think if UTC beat Jacksonville State, that would have changed everything. If the outcome of that game changes, we're talking about at least 3 teams in the playoffs with the citadel possibly getting a 4th with a win against Wofford. JSU was the better team when they played UTC, but UTC is much better now (or at least with Ford at RB)
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 09:09 AM
We's love to have the JSU game back. We'd also like to have the last minute of the Wofford game back. Special teams has been our achilles heel. We have to improve that aspect of our game to regain our spot among the SoCon elite.
ElCid
November 18th, 2019, 09:36 AM
If the citadel beats Wofford, more power to them. They will have 3 of the best wins in the FCS. But I don't think they get in the playoffs.
But I think there will be some head scratching by the committee before they decide. You are probably right, but it is far from a slam dunk for Furman if we win. Our wins will be way better than anything Furman has, but our losses would be way worse than anything Furman has. The only thing that could tip the balance is Furman playing Point close ( not in this reality) and us blowing Wofford out, highly unlikely.
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 09:56 AM
Mercer 9
North Carolina 48
Samford 7
Auburn 59
Western Carolina 0
Alabama 62
Wofford 28
The Citadel 31
Point 0
Furman 52
Chattanooga 38
VMI 34
ETSU 6
Vanderbilt 35
Power Ranking
1.) Wofford (AQ)
2.) Furman
3.) Chattanooga
4.) The Citadel
5.) Samford
6.) VMI
7.) Mercer
8.) ETSU
9.) Western Carolina
Possible D1 Wins (not counting $ games except The Citadel’s win over GT)
Wofford - 8 (clinched AQ)
Furman – 7 Final
Chattanooga – 7
The Citadel – 7
Samford – 5 (out) Final
Mercer – 4 (out) Final
VMI – 4 (out)
Western Carolina – 3 (out) Final
ETSU – 2 (out) Final
SoCon Championship
Wofford has guaranteed itself at least a share of the SoCon Championship
Furman has a 36% chance of sharing the SoCon Championship
Chattanooga has a 26% chance of sharing the SoCon Championship
FUBeAR
November 18th, 2019, 10:01 AM
Western Carolina 0
Alabama 62
You know Tua’s OUT, right?
ElCid
November 18th, 2019, 10:08 AM
You know Tua’s OUT, right?
Don't think it matters.
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 10:21 AM
You know Tua’s OUT, right?
I heard something about that......perhaps I should change my pick? :)
Reign of Terrier
November 18th, 2019, 10:34 AM
But I think there will be some head scratching by the committee before they decide. You are probably right, but it is far from a slam dunk for Furman if we win. Our wins will be way better than anything Furman has, but our losses would be way worse than anything Furman has. The only thing that could tip the balance is Furman playing Point close ( not in this reality) and us blowing Wofford out, highly unlikely.
I really don't know. If the Citadel beats VMI/Samford and beats Wofford Saturday, then they're a lock. But the committee has only put one 7-5 team ever and I just don't see them doing it in *this* Socon this year.
walliver
November 18th, 2019, 10:40 AM
I don't see a 5 FCS loss team getting at at-large from the SoCon, even with a P5 win. The Citadel is out.
Furman is in good shape. Close FBS losses are still losses, but they are 7-2 in FCS
Chattanooga has a much better team than most people accept, but being unranked will probably keep them out of serious consideration.
Mocs123
November 18th, 2019, 10:57 AM
I just want to beat VMI on Saturday and get to 7 D1 wins on the year - that is what we control. I'd also love a share of the SoCon championship but that's really out of our control. Currently we appear to have a 26% chance at that. Even less likely is a at large playoff invite - if we were to get in my guess is the NCAA would pair us up with Austin Peay or Kennesaw State - I'd go to either of those games. In the end, we probably get left at home, and we have nobody to blame but ourselves. When we were left home in 2013 we had 8 D1 wins, and I really thought we should be in, but we had our chances with a 2pt loss to Georgia Southern and a 3pt loss to Samford. In FCS every team owns their own destiny. Just keep winning and you are guaranteed the National Championship.
gofurman
November 18th, 2019, 06:52 PM
Yes. Both would be 6-2.
I guess, technically, if UTC wins and Wofford loses, UTC would also have a share of the title, but would have lost to the two teams they were tied with.
Nothing technical about it. If Cit wins Chatt is just as much a SoCon champ as Furman. All three 6-2. Autobid is different. But if Cit wins and Chatt wins congrats to Chatt on getting SoCon rings !!
Reign of Terrier
November 19th, 2019, 08:27 AM
FWIW Wofford is going for its 3rd unshared socon title since 1999. Chattanooga has one. The Citadel has one. No one else does.
Furman hasn't had one since 1990.
walliver
November 19th, 2019, 09:46 AM
Power rankings:
1) Wofford - for the first time since August
2) Furman - Far from the dominant team they seemed to be in September but still good
3) Chattanooga - I was tempted to put them second, but until last week struggled to win the close games
4) The Citadel - based on their wins they should be number 2, based on their losses they should be 7th - this year has been a strange one for the bulldogs
5) VMI - solidly middle of the pack
6) Samford, ETSU, Mercer, WCU can each make an argument for any of these spots.
This week: while everybody else in FCS plays rivalry weekend, the SoCon goes its own way.
Wofford at The Citadel : The only game this week bearing any resemblance to a rivalry. Terriers struggle early, but pull out a 35-20 win
Point at Furman : Apparently this was the best scheduling the horsies could come up with. Beating the NAIA Skyhawks won't help the pukes, but they still roll 70-3.
Chattanooga at VMI - The Mocs have a mild chance of a SoCon championship, and a smaller chance of a playoff bid, but that is enough motivation to overcome a feisty Kangaroo crowd. Mocs win 27-24
WCU at Alabama - In Tyrie's last game, he makes something happen, but even without Tua, Bama makes a lot more happen. The elephants run up the score to try and impress their committee and win 82-17.
Samford at Auburn - Some years this could be interesting. This isn't one of those years. Tiggers win 66-3
ETSU at Vanderbilt - This game will be closer than many expect, but the Commodores still win 31-20
Mercer at UNC - Mercer limping into a slaughter and baby blue sheep win 42-6
Playoffs: Wofford in. It may be too late to make up enough ground for a first round bye, but I win would help
Furman - Doesn't have a great win, and close FBS losses don't count, but still have done enough for a spot.
Chattanooga - Only marquee win at this point is The Citadel - a bid is possible, but unlikely
The Citadel - 5 FCS losses will outweigh beating a bad ACC team. The committee always has one head-scratching selection each year - but I don't think this is it.
Prediction: Furman travels to SC State and Wofford travels to Kennesaw next weekend. Chatty laments a dropped pass. And Citadel fans celebrate Georgia Tech.
PaladinFan
November 19th, 2019, 12:23 PM
Interesting note posted by Stats FCS. Four SoCon players have rushed for 1,000 yards this season:
Holmes: 1,133
Ramsey: 1,260
Ford: 1,081
Wynn: 1,038
Devezin sits at 949 with one game to play and having missed time/been hampered by injury. It's also not inconceivable that Rainey and Newman could joint that group, but it would make for a wild Saturday.
Last year, the SoCon had one 1,000 yard rusher (Tyrie Adams). There was one in 2017 (Detrez Newsome). The last time the SoCon had five 1,000 yard rushers was 2012 (there were 7 that season)
Adams, who missed a lot of time this season, almost assuredly would have been in that group as well.
Catamount87
November 19th, 2019, 01:37 PM
Interesting note posted by Stats FCS. Four SoCon players have rushed for 1,000 yards this season:
Holmes: 1,133
Ramsey: 1,260
Ford: 1,081
Wynn: 1,038
Devezin sits at 949 with one game to play and having missed time/been hampered by injury. It's also not inconceivable that Rainey and Newman could joint that group, but it would make for a wild Saturday.
Last year, the SoCon had one 1,000 yard rusher (Tyrie Adams). There was one in 2017 (Detrez Newsome). The last time the SoCon had five 1,000 yard rushers was 2012 (there were 7 that season)
Adams, who missed a lot of time this season, almost assuredly would have been in that group as well.
Yes, he missed time this year and has about 56% of the rushing attempts as last year. But I think the bulk of Tyrie's drop in production is on the coaching staff. They failed to make adjustments early in the season to help a young offensive line and their play calling and game planning was horrendous until about the 9th game of the season. (Again, a coaching failure to make adjustments in-game and game to game.)
Reign of Terrier
November 19th, 2019, 01:45 PM
And Joe Newman would have probably gotten it at this point if Wofford ran the option much in the last 2 FCS games (he's at 843 I want to say). Over the last 3 FCS games, Newman has 85 yards rushing on like <20 carries. We ran just as many pass plays as true triple option against Furman.
It safe to say that Wofford, though a run-first team, is not as much of an option team as we were midseason. It's in the arsenal, but we're more multiple. Meanwhile, the terriers have 5 rushers of over 300 yards, 6 over 200, and if Jacquez Allen gets 6 yards against the Citadel, 3 over 500. Last year, after 13 games we only had 4 rushers over 300.
The Socon is under a running back renaissance. I think teams are giving up like 40 yards more per game on average this year compared to prior years, but you'll need to check me on that. The only team that doesn't have at least one *really* good running back is probably Western Carolina.
PaladinFan
November 19th, 2019, 02:12 PM
And Joe Newman would have probably gotten it at this point if Wofford ran the option much in the last 2 FCS games (he's at 843 I want to say). Over the last 3 FCS games, Newman has 85 yards rushing on like <20 carries. We ran just as many pass plays as true triple option against Furman.
It safe to say that Wofford, though a run-first team, is not as much of an option team as we were midseason. It's in the arsenal, but we're more multiple. Meanwhile, the terriers have 5 rushers of over 300 yards, 6 over 200, and if Jacquez Allen gets 6 yards against the Citadel, 3 over 500. Last year, after 13 games we only had 4 rushers over 300.
The Socon is under a running back renaissance. I think teams are giving up like 40 yards more per game on average this year compared to prior years, but you'll need to check me on that. The only team that doesn't have at least one *really* good running back is probably Western Carolina.
Wofford, at least from what I am seeing, still runs the option a lot. Teams are just trying to force someone other than Newman to beat them running the ball. Seems like a good strategy as he's their most dangerous player.
I am excited to see where Furman's run game goes. When Hendrix arrived, there were essentially two fullbacks (one a converted safety) and a speed back (Darius Morehead). The Paladins are pretty stacked at running back now and return everyone next year. Of the 5 backs rotating into the game, three are freshmen, one is a sophomore, and one a junior (Wynn).
Wofford fans got their first look at true FR Wayne Anderson, who housed a ball 63 yards Saturday. Both QBs are also freshmen and will only get more dangerous running the ball as they mature in the position.
Furman already has a commit from a RB out of Texas, Kendall Thomas, who has put up over 2,000 yards this season in one of their largest classifications.
FUBeAR
November 19th, 2019, 09:29 PM
FWIW Wofford is going for its 3rd unshared socon title since 1999. Chattanooga has one. The Citadel has one. No one else does.
Furman hasn't had one since 1990.
Impressive ... and since we’re reaching back 20 years to compile that impressive, as yet unrealized, metric, I’m sure you’ll agree that going back just another few 19 years is equally as relevant. In just 10 years of that span, Furman compiled not 2 (how many woffy ACTUALLY has), not 3, not 4, not 5, not 6, but 7 unshared SoCon Football Championships.
So, IF woffy does happen to beat the bellhops on Sat, just roll up 6 more unshared SoCon Football Championships by 2027 (which will require outright winning 6 of the next 8) and FUBeAR will be really impressed, if he’s even still growling in 2027.
cx500d
November 19th, 2019, 10:33 PM
Holy ****, outside of the ivies and the gophers, there is no other entity or conference that wallows in the greatness of past centuries more than socon members
Reign of Terrier
November 19th, 2019, 10:39 PM
Holy ****, outside of the ivies and the gophers, there is no other entity or conference that wallows in the greatness of past centuries more than socon membersNo, I'm just mocking Furman here
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FUBeAR
November 19th, 2019, 11:33 PM
No, I'm just mocking Furman here
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Nice deflection. Not true, but a very well-played gambit.
gofurman
November 19th, 2019, 11:56 PM
FWIW Wofford is going for its 3rd unshared socon title since 1999. Chattanooga has one. The Citadel has one. No one else does.
Furman hasn't had one since 1990.
That won’t really rile up Furman. If going to 99 Furman has what .. Two semi-final appearances in 01 and 05 and Woff has none or one. One I think? SoCon champs are good. NATIONAL play is better. Furman played for the NATTY in 2001. Wofford has NEVER played for a natty. NEVER. Come back to this subject when you at least get In a Natty. I’ll grant that an unshared SoCon Champ is “cool” and has value but the rings don’t look any different if its shared either ...
this is how I can tell what matters.. ask a random moderate fan when each school last won an outright SoCon title. We all know 80% of people at SoCon games have no clue as to that. Ask them if Furman or Wofford or whomever has ever played or won a National Title and the percent jumps significantly. Most casual fans at Furman games aren’t sure do we have 14 or 7 or 3 SoCon titles. Many of them know we have played in and won a national title. It’s like that in all sports for most things. I’m a very casual NFL fan. Very casual. Did the Patriots win 13 or 14 games in X year? I don’t know. But I know they have won the super bowl ...
Scrappy94
November 20th, 2019, 08:22 PM
1. Wofford
2. Furman
3. Chattanooga
4. The Citadel
5. Samford
6. VMI
7. Mercer
8. Western Carolina
9. ETSU
Western Carolina @ Alabama
Samford @ Auburn
Wofford @ The Citadel
Point @ Furman
Chattanooga @ VMI
ETSU @ Vanderbilt
Mercer @ North Carolina
ElCid
November 20th, 2019, 10:28 PM
1. Wofford - got the auto, maybe the sole championship
2. Furman - good but not winning the ones that matter
3. Chattanooga - slow and steady did the trick
4. The Citadel - who's on first? What's on second?
5. Samford - underachievers
6. VMI - overachievers
7. Mercer - injury prone, sunk fast
8. Western Carolina - turned it around a bit late
9. ETSU - got to win more than one of the close ones...still they beat one of the OVC co-champs. ...too funny
- Western Carolina @ Alabama - I expect Bama will try and recover with their backup, so it could be closer than expected if he is off his game or really bad if he tries to overachieve - 55-3
- Samford @ Auburn - The Dogs can score on the Auburn backups late in the game - 56-17
- Wofford @ The Citadel - The Bulldogs blew it last week and I am pretty sure they are done, so the motivation will be somewhat diminished; but who knows, that may help with the pressure off; the ankle biters do well in Charleston and they are sniffing a possible seed, although I think that is just out of reach unless someone else stumbles. I want to say that this will be a low scoring affair with the two top TOP teams in FCS playing; heck each team may have only 6 possessions all game, so it will probably be a barn burner, LOL - 20-17
- Point @ Furman - The Paladins will do whatever they want and will probably try and make a statement even though making a statement against Point is...well...pointless - 58-0
- Chattanooga @ VMI - I can see this being a letdown game for Chatty; but the Keydets are still trying to learn how to win regularly; their D is a work in progress, but so is the Mocs O, especially with all their injuries - 35-27
- ETSU @ Vanderbilt - ETSU will make a game of it the first half - 38-13
- Mercer @ North Carolina - UNC, might be looking ahead to next week, but it shouldn't matter - 48-7
Wofford is obviously in. Furman is probably in unless some wierdness happens. The Dogs are probably out even with a win to be 7-5. UTC, at 7-5...if they win, is probably out as well. Loses to 3 playoff teams, an FBS, and a JSU that has stumbled. But who knows. Kind of depends on what the rest of the field does this week, but as it looks now, probably not.
SUPharmacist
November 21st, 2019, 12:05 AM
North Carolina
Auburn
Alabama
Wofford
Furman
Chattanooga
Vanderbilt
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 07:09 AM
1. Wofford - got the auto, maybe the sole championship
2. Furman - good but not winning the ones that matter
3. Chattanooga - slow and steady did the trick
4. The Citadel - who's on first? What's on second?
5. Samford - underachievers
6. VMI - overachievers
7. Mercer - injury prone, sunk fast
8. Western Carolina - turned it around a bit late
9. ETSU - got to win more than one of the close ones...still they beat one of the OVC co-champs. ...too funny
- Western Carolina @ Alabama - I expect Bama will try and recover with their backup, so it could be closer than expected if he is off his game or really bad if he tries to overachieve - 55-3
- Samford @ Auburn - The Dogs can score on the Auburn backups late in the game - 56-17
- Wofford @ The Citadel - The Bulldogs blew it last week and I am pretty sure they are done, so the motivation will be somewhat diminished; but who knows, that may help with the pressure off; the ankle biters do well in Charleston and they are sniffing a possible seed, although I think that is just out of reach unless someone else stumbles. I want to say that this will be a low scoring affair with the two top TOP teams in FCS playing; heck each team may have only 6 possessions all game, so it will probably be a barn burner, LOL - 20-17
- Point @ Furman - The Paladins will do whatever they want and will probably try and make a statement even though making a statement against Point is...well...pointless - 58-0
- Chattanooga @ VMI - I can see this being a letdown game for Chatty; but the Keydets are still trying to learn how to win regularly; their D is a work in progress, but so is the Mocs O, especially with all their injuries - 35-27
- ETSU @ Vanderbilt - ETSU will make a game of it the first half - 38-13
- Mercer @ North Carolina - UNC, might be looking ahead to next week, but it shouldn't matter - 48-7
Wofford is obviously in. Furman is probably in unless some wierdness happens. The Dogs are probably out even with a win to be 7-5. UTC, at 7-5...if they win, is probably out as well. Loses to 3 playoff teams, an FBS, and a JSU that has stumbled. But who knows. Kind of depends on what the rest of the field does this week, but as it looks now, probably not.
I don't think Furman "will make a statement."
Clay Hendrix has routinely pulled his starters when the game is in hand, even in SoCon games. Point is also coached by Julius Dixon, a former Furman player and coach. Hendrix called off the dogs against Mercer after the matter was settled. I expect he'll do the same against another former Paladin.
I doubt the FCS committee will care one way or the other what the final tally is in this one (unless it is uncomfortably close)
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 07:49 AM
FWIW, Hero Sports ranks Furman as the #7 recruiting class in the FCS right now. https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-fcs-national-recruiting-rankings-nov-ajaj
Only trailing Ivies, JMU, and NDSU.
Reign of Terrier
November 21st, 2019, 08:21 AM
Kennesaw State beat Point 59-0. Considering Furman won't get a bye next week, I imagine the goal is to be up 30 by half, pull the starters, put the second string in for the third quarter, go up 40something, then put the walk ons in the fourth,
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 09:05 AM
Kennesaw State beat Point 59-0. Considering Furman won't get a bye next week, I imagine the goal is to be up 30 by half, pull the starters, put the second string in for the third quarter, go up 40something, then put the walk ons in the fourth,
The goal in any of these games is to win. If Furman can get a big lead early, that's fine too.
In a perfect world, Furman wins big, avoids injury, and gets a bunch of guys reps in the lead up to a potential post season game.
ElCid
November 21st, 2019, 09:14 AM
FWIW, Hero Sports ranks Furman as the #7 recruiting class in the FCS right now. https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-fcs-national-recruiting-rankings-nov-ajaj
Only trailing Ivies, JMU, and NDSU.
And we all know how accurate rating the recruiting has been over the years.....:D Sometimes I really think it is a matter of rating inflation, depending upon the schools of choice. I have only done a casual perusing of recruiting over the years (not some cosmic spreadsheet), but I have a knack for picking out patterns and motivations, and it really seems that players who indicate they are lock to go X, Y or Z schools (the perennial playoff teams) is hyped a bit more than the ones who go to A, B, or C schools (the also ran's). Not always, but often enough. I mean, if they are pretty good, and they are probably going to THAT school, maybe they are even better, right? And since that school is likely to be up there for the next few years, this player will shine and we can't go wrong by hyping them. It's a data point that makes some feel good, but it doesn't pan out as often as it does. And we all know that players who decide on going FCS, after they were hyped by FBS, have actually been downgraded periodically. Sure, it's a game to be played, but I don't put huge stock in it. I'm pretty sure you don't either.
ElCid
November 21st, 2019, 09:22 AM
The goal in any of these games is to win. If Furman can get a big lead early, that's fine too.
In a perfect world, Furman wins big, avoids injury, and gets a bunch of guys reps in the lead up to a potential post season game.
Yeah, but if somehow you are only up, say 21-0 at half, I'm thinking, connections or not, you will pour it on until it looks correct. Weird things happen (turnovers, QB's who can't find a target to save their life.....:D) Now, don't get me wrong, I think it will be waaaay higher than that, but you will not settle for a mediocre score. You hung 60 on VMI, and 58 on Samford, so yeah, you should, you have done it before. People will expect it.
ElCid
November 21st, 2019, 10:06 AM
This has a lot of people pissed off. Should have never happened. The Corps needs to be at every home game period. And what's up with Thanksgiving break starting so early? Damn, back in the Old Corps we were in class until Wednesday noon...and then some of us had to drive 12 hours to get home. Millenials are such pussies.
https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/citadel-corps-of-cadets-will-miss-a-home-football-game/article_e35d3300-0bc1-11ea-b69f-7fa8e21f9a3b.html?fbclid=IwAR0QGSEXKmx_29kRdqPjFHX F_82k1JYpIR7mEzCiyF0Xwgvlt6V-9_u47OY
The last time The Citadel’s Corps of Cadets missed a home football game was supposed to be just that — the last time......
Mocs123
November 21st, 2019, 10:16 AM
I was hoping for a big hostile crowd in Charelston this weekend.
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 11:58 AM
Yeah, but if somehow you are only up, say 21-0 at half, I'm thinking, connections or not, you will pour it on until it looks correct. Weird things happen (turnovers, QB's who can't find a target to save their life.....:D) Now, don't get me wrong, I think it will be waaaay higher than that, but you will not settle for a mediocre score. You hung 60 on VMI, and 58 on Samford, so yeah, you should, you have done it before. People will expect it.
I don't disagree. The score really doesn't matter as long as it is convincing.
I had not really done a deep dive on this, but Furman has done a really solid job this season in "giveaways" with only 12 turnovers this season, especially considering nearly the entire backfield and center are freshmen.
There have been a lot of criticism directed at Furman's QBs. Some deserved. What I've been impressed with, though, is the poise. Sisson and Grainger have only thrown 5 interceptions this year on 222 attempts. A few of those were sort of freak plays (like the ball bouncing off a defenders foot against Wofford). That I recall, there have been no fumbled snaps, despite a freshmen at both QB and C. I think that bodes well for the future in the maturation of these players.
Reign of Terrier
November 21st, 2019, 12:06 PM
I would put a near certain chance that the Socon team(s) in the playoffs will play two of Austin Peay/SC State/Kennesaw State/the other Socon team. And to be clear, I put a low chance of SC State making the field
If Wofford is seeded, Furman will get Kennesaw and Wofford will play the winner.
And IMO KSU would be a bad matchup for the Paladins.
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 12:25 PM
I would put a near certain chance that the Socon team(s) in the playoffs will play two of Austin Peay/SC State/Kennesaw State/the other Socon team. And to be clear, I put a low chance of SC State making the field
If Wofford is seeded, Furman will get Kennesaw and Wofford will play the winner.
And IMO KSU would be a bad matchup for the Paladins.
Meh. Beyond playing NDSU or JMU, I don't think it really matters. I'm pretty firm in my impression that there are two really good teams and then a mushy middle.
Granted, I'd prefer Furman to play a team that airs it out a little more. Having already played Wofford and the Citadel, though, I don't imagine there's much Kennesaw will do that Furman hasn't already seen.
I wouldn't think that's a great draw for Wofford either. KSU/Furman/Wofford all share a lot of similarities, and I'd have to think the Terriers would prefer to play a team that didn't play a pretty good mock up the week prior.
Reign of Terrier
November 21st, 2019, 12:28 PM
Meh. Beyond playing NDSU or JMU, I don't think it really matters. I'm pretty firm in my impression that there are two really good teams and then a mushy middle.
Granted, I'd prefer Furman to play a team that airs it out a little more. Having already played Wofford and the Citadel, though, I don't imagine there's much Kennesaw will do that Furman hasn't already seen.
I wouldn't think that's a great draw for Wofford either. KSU/Furman/Wofford all share a lot of similarities, and I'd have to think the Terriers would prefer to play a team that didn't play a pretty good mock up the week prior.
Wofford would come out mad against KSU, given that they eliminated us last year.
SU DOG
November 21st, 2019, 01:50 PM
IMO, this KSU team is nowhere near what the Owls were the last 2 years. I might be wrong, but I would take Furman or Wofford over KSU.
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 01:58 PM
IMO, this KSU team is nowhere near what the Owls were the last 2 years. I might be wrong, but I would take Furman or Wofford over KSU.
Open question. Hard to know how good KSU is or isn't.
I did find it funny that Clay Hendrix said in an interview that it was KSU, not Furman, that requested to move this year's game. There are a few KSU fans on here who are adamant that Furman ran from Kennesaw and forced them to schedule a bunch of bad programs.
Reign of Terrier
November 21st, 2019, 02:03 PM
IMO, this KSU team is nowhere near what the Owls were the last 2 years. I might be wrong, but I would take Furman or Wofford over KSU.
To be clear, I agree with this. I'm just going off what I saw Furman do against Wofford and the Citadel. Run defense is just their Achilles heal (Having said that, they compensate for it with great pass defense).
Wofford and the Citadel both have the nation's best run game and the willingness to run 80-90% of the time. There's only a handful of teams that will do the same. Kennesaw is one of those teams.
But I don't think KSU's defense is as good as Wofford's.
kdinva
November 21st, 2019, 03:05 PM
VMI was in the same situation. Once the SoCon schedule was finalized, VMI changed Thanksgiving furlough to now begin at 5 PM SATURDAY. Corps will be there for UTC, just hope they cheer and not play with their I-phones for 3 hours...
This has a lot of people pissed off. Should have never happened. The Corps needs to be at every home game period. And what's up with Thanksgiving break starting so early? Damn, back in the Old Corps we were in class until Wednesday noon...and then some of us had to drive 12 hours to get home. Millenials are such pussies.
https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/citadel-corps-of-cadets-will-miss-a-home-football-game/article_e35d3300-0bc1-11ea-b69f-7fa8e21f9a3b.html?fbclid=IwAR0QGSEXKmx_29kRdqPjFHX F_82k1JYpIR7mEzCiyF0Xwgvlt6V-9_u47OY
BurialGround
November 21st, 2019, 04:24 PM
And IMO KSU would be a bad matchup for the Paladins.
Lol, you're much more confident in us than I am. Ask the Citadel to take back their DC please.
Honestly, I knew this would be a huge rebuilding year on O, and then we lost our best playmaker to make matters much worse. But the D returned almost everyone on the 2-deep, and it's been a complete cluster#### most of the season.
BurialGround
November 21st, 2019, 04:28 PM
There are a few KSU fans on here who are adamant that Furman ran from Kennesaw and forced them to schedule a bunch of bad programs.
If by "a few" you mean "Hooty" (who is trolling you anyway), then yeah.
It's been pretty well-established that Furman rescheduled the game to accommodate Virginia Tech. Had nothing to do with running away, though it was frustrating for us.
Duquesne, on the other hand.....
PaladinFan
November 21st, 2019, 04:37 PM
If by "a few" you mean "Hooty" (who is trolling you anyway), then yeah.
It's been pretty well-established that Furman rescheduled the game to accommodate Virginia Tech. Had nothing to do with running away, though it was frustrating for us.
Duquesne, on the other hand.....
Well established but for Furman's head coach saying the exact opposite this week.
BurialGround
November 21st, 2019, 04:59 PM
Well established but for Furman's head coach saying the exact opposite this week.
I might be remembering incorrectly, but I think I've heard Bohannon say that "two teams dropped us" on a few occasions this year when talking OOC. This might be clarified pretty soon if we match up in the first round of the playoffs.
Mocs123
November 21st, 2019, 05:31 PM
VMI was in the same situation. Once the SoCon schedule was finalized, VMI changed Thanksgiving furlough to now begin at 5 PM SATURDAY. Corps will be there for UTC, just hope they cheer and not play with their I-phones for 3 hours...
No offense, but I hope they play on their phone for 3 hours :)
ElCid
November 21st, 2019, 09:19 PM
No offense, but I hope they play on their phone for 3 hours :)
Yeah that's another thing that is bogus. It's like crack to some. These punks have a different mindset.
Reign of Terrier
November 22nd, 2019, 08:38 AM
Lol, you're much more confident in us than I am. Ask the Citadel to take back their DC please.
Honestly, I knew this would be a huge rebuilding year on O, and then we lost our best playmaker to make matters much worse. But the D returned almost everyone on the 2-deep, and it's been a complete cluster#### most of the season.
KSU's defense brought back everyone but the most important person: the defensive coordinator.
Furman has problems with run defense. It's hard to say how bad they are because they've only been exposed twice by two really good run teams who were going to get their yards anyway (heck, they held Wofford like 70 yards below our average). Furman's formula for success this year has been to score early and often on offense and forcing their opponents to abandon the run (or, at least be less reliant on it), causing them to pass more. Defending the pass is probably Furman's strength. And again, their run defense isn't terrible, it's just weak in the two games they've played against teams that love to run the ball. But you're going to have a worse time as a team that likes to pass a lot or wants to maintain the illusion of balance. If you shamelessly run the ball 50 times+ you have a better chance, but few teams have that capability.
I agree that KSU is down, maybe even way down relative to last year, but football is a game of matchups and IMO they'd be less ideal for Furman.
Tbh: I have Furman derangement syndrome, but I do want them to put out a good product in the playoffs on behalf of the Socon (just don't beat Wofford or advance farther than us :D), but the above assessment I'd like to think is pretty objective.
PaladinFan
November 22nd, 2019, 09:13 AM
KSU's defense brought back everyone but the most important person: the defensive coordinator.
Furman has problems with run defense. It's hard to say how bad they are because they've only been exposed twice by two really good run teams who were going to get their yards anyway (heck, they held Wofford like 70 yards below our average). Furman's formula for success this year has been to score early and often on offense and forcing their opponents to abandon the run (or, at least be less reliant on it), causing them to pass more. Defending the pass is probably Furman's strength. And again, their run defense isn't terrible, it's just weak in the two games they've played against teams that love to run the ball. But you're going to have a worse time as a team that likes to pass a lot or wants to maintain the illusion of balance. If you shamelessly run the ball 50 times+ you have a better chance, but few teams have that capability.
I agree that KSU is down, maybe even way down relative to last year, but football is a game of matchups and IMO they'd be less ideal for Furman.
Tbh: I have Furman derangement syndrome, but I do want them to put out a good product in the playoffs on behalf of the Socon (just don't beat Wofford or advance farther than us :D), but the above assessment I'd like to think is pretty objective.
It is at least an interesting question.
Furman isn't bad against the run. They still lead the SoCon in scoring defense. They are still fairly young up front and that is apparent against a big veteran offensive line. I agree, though, that Furman's defense is much better when teams are having to throw the ball.
The primary issue against Wofford and the Citadel was just Furman's inability to keep them behind the sticks and get them into predictable passing situations. Even when Wofford's offense would go backwards, Furman was struggling on second down to keep them out of manageable 3rd and (often) 4th downs.
kdinva
November 22nd, 2019, 10:00 AM
Wofford 31 @ Citadel 24
Point 6 @ Furman 58
UTC 35 @ VMI 39
WCU 12 @ Alabama 52
Samford 14 @ Auburn 48
ETSU 17 @ Vandy 31
Mercer 14 @ UNC 37
Keydets are going to have to outscore the Mocs to win, as their depth on defense is gone. Out of the 22 guys on the Defensive two-deep in late August, 8 are injured or gone from the squad. That showed in the losses to Furman and Army.
FUBeAR
November 22nd, 2019, 03:56 PM
Power Rankings
1) Furman - 2 bad days
1) UTC - 1 bad day, 1 unfortunate one
1) Wofford - 1 bad day, 1 fortunate one, 1 to go
4-9) ETSU - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) Mercer - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) Samford - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) The Citadel - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) VMI - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) WCU - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
Picks
Wofford 27 @ Citadel 31
Point 0 @ Furman 49
UTC 35 @ VMI 24
WCU 0 @ Alabama 70
Samford 10 @ Auburn 56
ETSU 7 @ Vandy 42
Mercer 21 @ UNC 20
walliver
November 22nd, 2019, 07:39 PM
Power Rankings
1) Furman - 2 bad days
1) UTC - 1 bad day, 1 unfortunate one
1) Wofford - 1 bad day, 1 fortunate one, 1 to go
4-9) ETSU - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) Mercer - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) Samford - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) The Citadel - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) VMI - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
4-9) WCU - could beat/lose to any other 4-9) #AGS
Picks
Wofford 27 @ Citadel 31
Point 0 @ Furman 49
UTC 35 @ VMI 24
WCU 0 @ Alabama 70
Samford 10 @ Auburn 56
ETSU 7 @ Vandy 42
Mercer 21 @ UNC 20
At least, you are consistent.
Mercer has little chance this weekend, but J will never criticize a fan’s homer pick.
FUBeAR
November 22nd, 2019, 08:32 PM
Mercer has little chance
I bet you said that the last time the Bears were in the Triangle Area...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tHJzPfqENw
UpstateBison
November 22nd, 2019, 10:53 PM
I know I just had retina surgery and only have 50% vision but I thought I saw that you have Furman & UTC rated equal to Wofford.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
KSUFAN
November 22nd, 2019, 11:15 PM
I might be remembering incorrectly, but I think I've heard Bohannon say that "two teams dropped us" on a few occasions this year when talking OOC. This might be clarified pretty soon if we match up in the first round of the playoffs.
BurialGround you are remembering correctly. He has said it more than once. No one said anything about Furman running just that they couldn't play the game that had been scheduled for a coule years and left KSU scrambling to find a home game.
FUBeAR
November 22nd, 2019, 11:49 PM
I know I just had retina surgery and only have 50% vision but I thought I saw that you have Furman & UTC rated equal to Wofford.Compliments to your Surgeon.
Reign of Terrier
November 23rd, 2019, 03:59 PM
Wofford beat the Citadel 31-11 and it wasn't even that close.
Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
PaladinFan
November 23rd, 2019, 05:20 PM
Furman did what you might have expected against Point.
Paladins basically emptied the bench in the 4th Quarter. Impressively, the defense surrendered 1 rushing yard on 35 carries. Even against an overmatched team, that's notable.
ElCid
November 23rd, 2019, 06:12 PM
Wofford beat the Citadel 31-11 and it wasn't even that close.
Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
The sad part is we out gained you on the ground and in the air and had the TOP. I knew it would be a tall order to get up for this game with playoffs basically gone and the Corps not there. A couple early bad decisions and penalties put us behind the 8 ball. Oh well, I like our chances next year. Pretty much everyone coming back. I think we lose like 2 on the O two deep and 3 on the D two deep. Word has it the QB and leading rcvr are back for 5th year.
Don't embarrass us in the playoffs.
Reign of Terrier
November 23rd, 2019, 06:21 PM
The difference in yardage can be explained basically by the fact that the Citadel gave Wofford short field and Wofford took advantage. Wofford let the Citadel run their offense when we were up 3+ scores because it meant burning clock.
Remember, it was 28-3 (Wofford had a yardage edge) like halfway through the third.
Mocs123
November 23rd, 2019, 07:20 PM
Congratulations to VMI - I thought you guys played a great game. That's probably the best VMI team I've ever seen you field. Our special teams has been playing like crap all year, and you can't let an offense like VMI start on the 50 yard line every possession, and of course you can't snap it over your punters head. We spotted the Keydets 14 today.
Also congrats to Wofford. Who would have thought after the way you started out you'd have 8 D1 wins.
We've got 5 starters offense out and two on defense. We've got to figure out what's causing our injury problems and fix it, and then fix our special teams. We only lose 2 starters on offense and 3 on defense, so we should contend next year as well (with a very senior laden team).
kdinva
November 23rd, 2019, 08:20 PM
Congratulations to VMI - I thought you guys played a great game. That's probably the best VMI team I've ever seen you field. Our special teams has been playing like crap all year, and you can't let an offense like VMI start on the 50 yard line every possession, and of course you can't snap it over your punters head. We spotted the Keydets 14 today.
Also congrats to Wofford. Who would have thought after the way you started out you'd have 8 D1 wins.
We've got 5 starters offense out and two on defense. We've got to figure out what's causing our injury problems and fix it, and then fix our special teams. We only lose 2 starters on offense and 3 on defense, so we should contend next year as well (with a very senior laden team).
thanks, VMI made just enough plays to win. VMI's offense in the 2nd half was MIA, after the early TD pass to Herres. They got maybe 2 first downs before the final drive, where they got 3 and ran out the clock. Tiano is a fine passer, when he has time. VMI rushed 5 and 6 more today than any other game.
Plus, if the VMI administration still does not put in lights after today's shameful environment, shame on them.
PaladinFan
November 23rd, 2019, 08:57 PM
The difference in yardage can be explained basically by the fact that the Citadel gave Wofford short field and Wofford took advantage. Wofford let the Citadel run their offense when we were up 3+ scores because it meant burning clock.
Remember, it was 28-3 (Wofford had a yardage edge) like halfway through the third.
I make this argument pretty routinely, but "total yardage" is a completely misleading statistic. As best I can tell, it rarely has a direct correlation to the outcome of football games.
Scrappy94
November 24th, 2019, 01:24 PM
I was surprised to see that Chattanooga out-gained VMI by 187 yards, 451-264, and still managed to lose. Too many mistakes in the game. Granted our number of injuries was definitely showing, especially on the O-line. Of the 44 players on the first two-deep of the season for UTC, only 29 were available vs VMI. I am happy with the improvement this team has made with head coach Rusty Wright in his 1st year, and things look to be trending up. I was disappointed with special teams all season. We left too many points on the field with missed field goals and PATs. Gave too many short fields to the opposition all season as well. Special teams has to be a huge focus this off season and must be improved next year. Special teams was definitely the difference in us possibly getting a few more wins this year. I expect to see a much improved Mocs team next year competing for the conference title and a playoff spot with so many play makers returning, but special teams needs to be fixed to make that happen.
kdinva
November 24th, 2019, 01:27 PM
Of the 44 players on the first two-deep of the season for UTC, only 29 were available vs VMI.
For VMI, only 33/44 game 1 two deep dressed out, most of that on defense, and it showed most of the game....bad kicking game cost the Keydets vs. WCU......we both are qualified to: xbangx
Reign of Terrier
November 24th, 2019, 01:38 PM
I think both Wofford and Furman have winnable first round games, and if they're fortunate enough to pull that off, winnable second round games as well.
walliver
November 24th, 2019, 01:41 PM
I think both Wofford and Furman have winnable first round games, and if they're fortunate enough to pull that off, winnable second round games as well.
And won’t have to play each other until Frisco.
PaladinFan
November 24th, 2019, 01:43 PM
I think both Wofford and Furman have winnable first round games, and if they're fortunate enough to pull that off, winnable second round games as well.
To be honest, I think the biggest benefit for Furman is experience. The Paladins are still young and they are going to get more reps.
APSU is a good matchup for Furman. They are more of a passing team and haven't been dominant against two of the SoCon's weaker teams.
PaladinFan
November 24th, 2019, 02:06 PM
I had forgotten this, but Furman has a coach on their staff that was with APSU last season. I also think APSU played both ETSU and Mercer the week before Furman did, so they've seen them on film a few times already.
FUBeAR
November 24th, 2019, 02:31 PM
I had forgotten this, but Furman has a coach on their staff that was with APSU last season. I also think APSU played both ETSU and Mercer the week before Furman did, so they've seen them on film a few times already.
FU has seen APSU’s starting NG before...
https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/roster/john-wesley-whiteside/7709
former bellhop...good Player...takes up a lot of space vs. inside run game
KSUFAN
November 24th, 2019, 03:17 PM
Wofford has KSU’s old QB, Chandler Burk, on staff who knows KSU’s offense better than any player at KSU. Should be interesting.
PaladinFan
November 24th, 2019, 03:23 PM
Wofford has KSU’s old QB, Chandler Burk, on staff who knows KSU’s offense better than any player at KSU. Should be interesting.
SoCon teams also see the option a lot. Two or three teams have run that offense in this conference for probably 30 years.
Oh, and Wofford just played an option team last Saturday.
Reign of Terrier
November 24th, 2019, 03:40 PM
Not to mention: Wofford held KSU to a season low with rushing last year. And Wofford's offense is more multiple than it was last year. We have a power run game, for one, that we can use to take advantage of size advantages that we have in the trenches.
KSU beat us last year by using their quick defenders on the DL to disrupt reads. They're still going to be better than their size indicates, but it's going to be harder for them to defend hat-on-hat than it was last year.
BestOfBreed
November 24th, 2019, 03:50 PM
3rd round game against Villanova will probably be in Spartanburg which will be good.
gofurman
November 24th, 2019, 04:10 PM
I pick a Wofford win in this one.. And I want it. Make SoCon look better and less talk from them "Hooty Hoos" of the world.
Furman and Woff both need to pull for each other now (well, as much as they can stand lol) - lets get a couple of wins,
gofurman
November 24th, 2019, 04:16 PM
I make this argument pretty routinely, but "total yardage" is a completely misleading statistic. As best I can tell, it rarely has a direct correlation to the outcome of football games.
PFan, you know your stuff but this one is NOT true. When a team outgains another team by 150 yards or more they win 87% of the time. EIGHTY SEVEN PERCENT. Fact. That was in Sports Illustrated or Phil Steele or somewhere for all D1 ccolleges a year or so ago. IT WAS A FACT FOR LAST 20 years. So it is not worth arguing against. ITS JUST MATH. Can't argue with it.
Within 150 yards of similarity and particularly within 100 yards of similarity .. Turnovers etc are more important. But hit 150 and you tell who won 87 out of 100 times. That is a serious coorelation
Granted, Woff and Citadel didn't vary by 150 I don't think. It has to get to 150 to get a standard deviation or two of significance.
To your point though, giving up "junk" yards at the end of game (say 50) and the box score still puts you ahead by 150 yards at the conclusion means you really KILLED them by 200 yards so, yeah, like 450 to 290 is including they probably had 240 yards all game and got 50 more at end of Q4... I get it
Mocs123
November 24th, 2019, 08:34 PM
I'll be rooting for both Furman and Wofford. Go make the SoCon proud!!!
PaladinFan
November 24th, 2019, 10:41 PM
Interesting note posted by Stats FCS. Four SoCon players have rushed for 1,000 yards this season:
Holmes: 1,133
Ramsey: 1,260
Ford: 1,081
Wynn: 1,038
Devezin sits at 949 with one game to play and having missed time/been hampered by injury. It's also not inconceivable that Rainey and Newman could joint that group, but it would make for a wild Saturday.
Last year, the SoCon had one 1,000 yard rusher (Tyrie Adams). There was one in 2017 (Detrez Newsome). The last time the SoCon had five 1,000 yard rushers was 2012 (there were 7 that season)
Adams, who missed a lot of time this season, almost assuredly would have been in that group as well.
Well, mission accomplished. Tyray Devezin joined the club giving the SoCon five 1,000 yard rushers
Mocs123
November 25th, 2019, 08:12 AM
That's pretty impressive especially considering Ford and Devezin both missed substantial time. I know we expected Ford to have 1300+ yards and be the all time single season record holder at Chattanooga before his injury.
Reign of Terrier
November 25th, 2019, 08:54 AM
Boasting on Wofford here for our playoff chances: given how great the entire conference ran the ball this year, it's impressive that Wofford only let up about 115 yards per game on the ground (if you take out the Clemson game), especially given how young we were up front early on.
PaladinFan
November 25th, 2019, 09:25 AM
That's pretty impressive especially considering Ford and Devezin both missed substantial time. I know we expected Ford to have 1300+ yards and be the all time single season record holder at Chattanooga before his injury.
Devin Wynn hit the mark with 50-100 carries fewer than most of the other league leaders.
PaladinFan
November 25th, 2019, 10:38 AM
Saw where Devlin Hodges just lead the Steelers back to win yesterday against the Bengals.
I will never understand how Samford had a bona fide NFL quarterback on their roster last year and went 6-5.
Reign of Terrier
November 25th, 2019, 10:42 AM
Saw where Devlin Hodges just lead the Steelers back to win yesterday against the Bengals.
I will never understand how Samford had a bona fide NFL quarterback on their roster last year and went 6-5.
I think we're going to see how good they are without such a quality QB at the reigns going forward. The 6-5 bit may have been a high point in Hatcher's system
PaladinFan
November 25th, 2019, 10:44 AM
I think we're going to see how good they are without such a quality QB at the reigns going forward. The 6-5 bit may have been a high point in Hatcher's system
I'm just sitting here thinking that if Devlin Hodges was on Furman's team in their offense, the Paladins would be eviscerating teams.
BearDownMU
November 25th, 2019, 01:28 PM
Saw where Devlin Hodges just lead the Steelers back to win yesterday against the Bengals.
I will never understand how Samford had a bona fide NFL quarterback on their roster last year and went 6-5.
This is my standard response when people start talking to me about Hatcher to Mercer.
gofurman
November 25th, 2019, 11:30 PM
FU has seen APSU’s starting NG before...
https://letsgopeay.com/sports/football/roster/john-wesley-whiteside/7709
former bellhop...good Player...takes up a lot of space vs. inside run game
good grief their inside DL are huge. 325 etc
PaladinFan
November 26th, 2019, 06:24 AM
This is my standard response when people start talking to me about Hatcher to Mercer.
I bet Samford would cut a deal, though.
BearDownMU
November 26th, 2019, 09:57 AM
I bet Samford would cut a deal, though.
Hard pass.
SU DOG
November 26th, 2019, 10:07 AM
Hard pass.
WAIT! You always want to listen to propositions don't you? LOL!
BearDownMU
November 26th, 2019, 10:10 AM
WAIT! You always want to listen to propositions don't you? LOL!
https://media.giphy.com/media/MrdaOsKoKxjm8/giphy.gif
SU DOG
November 26th, 2019, 10:14 AM
Saw where Devlin Hodges just lead the Steelers back to win yesterday against the Bengals.
I will never understand how Samford had a bona fide NFL quarterback on their roster last year and went 6-5.
Hey not just Duck, but there were 3 All-Americans on that team. I don't know how this compares to other SoCon teams, but Samford now has SIX former Bulldogs on NFL rosters. Five of those 6 I believe are currently starters, and Gooden may soon be. Talent is NOT the issue.
PaladinFan
November 26th, 2019, 10:27 AM
Hey not just Duck, but there were 3 All-Americans on that team. I don't know how this compares to other SoCon teams, but Samford now has SIX former Bulldogs on NFL rosters. Five of those 6 I believe are currently starters, and Gooden may soon be. Talent is NOT the issue.
To me, that's the biggest indictment of coach Hatcher. Not all of those players were his, of course, but Samford is generally loaded with talent but struggles with consistency.
Reign of Terrier
November 26th, 2019, 10:31 AM
I'm pretty sure none of those aforementioned players were his own recruits. Now, this year, with a two-deep full of juniors and seniors on defense, they were among the worst in the FCS. Oladokun doesn't have the same accuracy as Hodges, which is something you can't coach and key to Hodges's success. Schelling and company are good receivers, but they aren't Kelvin McKnight.
With the top 4 of this year's standings returning strong two-deeps, on top of the resurgence of VMI and ETSU not being as bad as their record, I think the glory days of the Hatch Attack in Birmingham are over.
PaladinFan
November 26th, 2019, 10:39 AM
I'm pretty sure none of those aforementioned players were his own recruits. Now, this year, with a two-deep full of juniors and seniors on defense, they were among the worst in the FCS. Oladokun doesn't have the same accuracy as Hodges, which is something you can't coach and key to Hodges's success. Schelling and company are good receivers, but they aren't Kelvin McKnight.
With the top 4 of this year's standings returning strong two-deeps, on top of the resurgence of VMI and ETSU not being as bad as their record, I think the glory days of the Hatch Attack in Birmingham are over.
I made that argument in the preseason. I just didn't see how you take three all Americans off a 6-5 team and the team was going to get better.
I honestly think Hatcher is going to have to adapt to survive as a head coach. He can't just keep doing the same thing in this league right now and expect things to improve tremendously.
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