pantherguy
November 17th, 2019, 01:28 PM
Hello All,
I have been making these for my friends who are not fans of FCS teams but are curious and interested, and I figured it would make sense to post them here. I am certain there are some inaccuracies, but I think overall it is a pretty good summary of where we are at. Takes me a couple hours each week. Anyway, here you are for your reading pleasure.
PS- I mostly just read posts here these days, but I used to have a handle on here. Couldn't remember the login info so I had to start anew.
State of the FCS
With just one week to go, the FCS playoff picture has started to come into focus just a little bit, but there is still quite a bit on the line in the final week. Here are the categories I will place every team.
Lock: These teams are 100% in. Even if they lose next week, they are 100% in the field.
In Good Shape: These teams aren’t locks, but are definitely in with a win, and still have a good chance to make it even with a loss.
Work To Do: These are your bubble teams. Most have a good chance to make it with a win, but will likely be out with a loss.
Needs Help: These teams need to win and cross their fingers. A win only puts them on the bubble and in the conversation. It still might not be enough.
Unlikely: These teams have not hit the six loss threshold, but will likely not make it even with a win next week.
Out: These teams have six losses and are “out” by my calculations. No matter what they do, they can’t finish with a winning record and get in.
There used to be an unofficial hard rule of 7 DI wins to be eligible for an at-large bid. But since the field has expanded to 24 that has gone away and several 6-win teams have made it. This year is one of those random years where there is an extra week in the season and FCS teams can play 12 games, so 6 losses is the plateau for disconsideration (leaving you either 5-6 or 6-6). I wont consider teams with 6 losses. With rankings, I’ll use the STATS FCS poll. We’ll go conference by conference. Here we go.
Big Sky Conference: If you’re a Big Sky fan who wants to see as many Big Sky teams as possible in field and seeded, things went about as well as possible for you today.
Locks
Montana (9-2, 6-1): It was a very good week for the 5th ranked Griz, who claimed a 35-16 victory over #3 Weber State to lock in a playoff spot for the first time since 2015. The historical FCS power has been down for a few years, but the win over the #3 team, coupled with #4 UNI’s loss puts Montana in a position to grab the 3 or 4 seed (and two guaranteed home playoff games as long as they’re in it) with a win at #10 Montana State next week. A tall order, to be sure, but even if they don’t pull it off a seed is a possibility for the Griz. Montana is in a 3-way tie with Weber State who they beat and Sac State who they lost to (something we’ll see in the MVFC as well). The Griz’s only other loss is to Oregon.
Weber State (8-3, 6-1): With wins over #6 Sacramento State and #4 UNI, 3rd ranked (for now) Weber is still safely in the field despite a 19 point loss to #5 Montana this week. The loss is Weber’s first FCS loss, as the other two came by 6 to Mountain West teams. While they may have lost their top 4 status…they should still be able to secure a seed and a bye with a W over 3-8 Idaho State this week. And a top-4 seed is not entirely out of the question.
Sacramento State (8-3, 6-1): The 6th ranked Hornets easily handled Idaho to remain tied for first in the Big Sky with Montana (who they beat) and Weber State (who they lost to). They only have one FCS loss to Weber (along with a 12 point loss to Arizona State and a 14 point loss to Fresno State), and quality wins over Montana and Montana State (and a decent one against Eastern Washington). They are solidly in the field and should be able to lock up a seed by handling UC-Davis next week (which is easier said than done).
In Good Shape
Montana State (8-3, 5-2): The 10th ranked Bobcats may have wrapped up a playoff bid with their win over UC-Davis today to get to eight wins. There is no shame in their losses to Texas Tech, #6 Sacramento State and North Dakota. But the Bobcats, who do not play Weber State this year, have only one good win over the Ohio Valley’s #15 Southeast Missouri State. Even with a loss to #5 Montana this week, MSU is probably in but may need to sweat it out a bit on Selection Sunday. If they beat the Griz, they are in the conversation for a seed.
Needs Help
Eastern Washington (6-5, 5-2): A blowout win over Cal Poly kept faint playoff hopes alive for the Eagles, who are probably better than their record indicates. But with a D2 win and a loss to Idaho (4-7) already on the ledger, they would definitely need the bubble to weaken without a real quality win (#26RV North Dakota is their best). The best they can hope for is a weak bubble, and that the committee smiles on them.
Out
UC-Davis (5-6, 3-4), Portland State (5-6, 3-4), Northern Arizona (4-7, 2-5), Idaho (4-7, 2-5), Idaho State (3-8, 2-5), Northern Colorado (2-9, 2-5), Cal Poly (2-8, 1-6), and Southern Utah (3-8, 2-5)
Big South: Both realistic playoff contenders got easy wins this week, giving the weak Big South a decent shot at two bids.
Lock
Monmouth (9-2, 5-0): The 17th ranked Hawks clinched the autobid with an easy win 47-10 win over Campbell. They are now guaranteed a spot in the field, even if they lose to Hampton, which is unlikely. The weakness of the Big South makes it unlikely Monmouth secures a seed (despite the fact that their losses are to Western Michigan and #5 Montana). If they do, that is the bracket you’re going to want to be in. Still, Monmouth has had a good season and deserving of a playoff spot.
Work To Do
Kennesaw State (9-2, 4-1): The 16th ranked Owls (who remain ranked ahead of Monmouth for some reason) have accumulated a number of wins, but they lack a single win of any note whatsoever. Their non-conference wins came over two D2 teams, a 5-5 SWAC team, a 1-9 MVFC team and a 4-7 independent. They lost badly to their only decent conference opponent, 45-21 at home to Monmouth. Assuming a win over 3-8 Gardner-Webb next week…..is a big pile of worthless wins (8-1 against FCS competition) enough to get in? I will guess yes, but I don’t think they deserve it.
Unlikely
Campbell (6-4, 3-2): Campbell had a fun run, including taking Kennesaw State to the brink two weeks ago, but their blowout loss to Monmouth likely seals their fate. They now have losses to Kennesaw and Monmouth as well as a head scratching loss to North Alabama, as well as a D2 and Pioneer League win. Just not enough out of the Big South.
Out
Hampton (5-6, 1-4), Gardner-Webb (3-8, 1-4), North Alabama (4-7, ineligible anyway), Charleston Southern (5-6, 3-2), Presbyterian (1-10, 1-5).
Colonial Athletic Association: The CAA continues to be a mess, but the playoff picture does look a little clearer, for-better-or-worse, after today’s action.
Lock
James Madison (10-1, 7-0): The 2nd ranked Dukes were already a lock before this week, but the blowout win over Richmond made it officially official as they have now clinched the CAA’s automatic bid. James Madison, who is undefeated against FCS competition with only a 20-13 loss to West Virginia as a blemish on their resume, can ensure that the road to Frisco will run through Harrisonburg (by clinching at least a #2 seed) with a win over Rhode Island next week. They’re still very likely seeded even with a loss.
Work To Do
Villanova (8-3, 4-3): The 13th ranked Wildcats won this week, but it was over one of the worst teams in the nation (Long Island who is an NEC team transitioning from D2), and it didn’t do a ton to help their profile. I considered putting Nova into the “in good shape category” but due to an aggressively bad non-conference schedule (3 bad Patriot League teams and a very bad NEC team), coupled with a lack of JMU or Albany on the resume (and a relatively bad loss to Stony Brook) means Nova will have to win over Delaware this week to truly feel great about their chances.
Albany (7-4, 5-2): The Great Danes took on New Hampshire this week in a game many considered to be a play-in game, and Albany took it by a score of 24-17 at home. Losses to Central Michigan, Monmouth, Richmond and Maine aren’t damning, but their only quality win is 7-4 Towson. A win over Stony Brook gives Albany decent chance to get selected. But it isn’t a sure thing.
Towson (7-4, 4-3): The 20th ranked Tigers have benefitted from the collapse of the CAA bubble as their four-loss status is enough to keep them in the conversation. Towson has an OK noncon win over the Citadel, and excusable losses to Florida, James Madison, Albany and Villanova. Three straight wins is clutch, but they’ll need to make it four to have a shot at the postseason. Even than, it will be a nervous Selection Sunday for Towson.
Needs Help
New Hampshire (5-5, 4-3): Despite the fact that the committee picked New Hampshire #10 in their poll two weeks ago, a playoff bid seems unlikely at this point for UNH. Since then, the Wildcats have lost twice, making it difficult for them to snag a spot even a win with over Maine this week. A win over Villanova is probably not enough to get in at 6-5. A loss by Towson would help.
Maine (6-5, 4-3): I initially categorized Maine as an “unlikely” team, but four straight wins have put Maine back in the conversation. A win over New Hampshire this week is a must. Then, it is time to cross your fingers that the bubble falls to you. With two FBS losses, along with Towson, Villanova and Richmond, Maine is officially at least in the conversation, but a lack of big wins might keep them out.
Out
Richmond, (5-6, 4-3), Stony Brook (5-6, 2-5), Delaware (5-6, 3-4), Elon (4-6, 3-4), William and Mary (4-7, 2-5), Rhode Island (0-7, 2-9)
Independents: Two teams are independents this year. One is transitioning to the MVFC next year, while the other is transitioning from D2 to the NEC.
Work to Do
North Dakota (6-4): The Fighting Hawks stayed on the bubble with a win over Northern Colorado. They have a win over #10 Montana State that just keeps looking better very week. They have one weird loss to Idaho State (3-8) and if they don’t get in that will be why. Other losses are to #1 NDSU, #3 Weber and Eastern Washington which is looking much better. UND has to handle Southern Utah this week to get on the bubble and then cross their fingers.
Out
Merrimack (5-5): Merrimack is not eligible as a D2 transitioning team…..but they wouldn’t have any shot anyway with 3 D2s on their schedule and mostly NEC teams otherwise.
Ivy League: The Ivy League does not participate in the FCS playoffs. Too bad, having them would be fun. Dartmouth was cruising to an outright championship before being shocked by lowly Cornell. Now they need Harvard to handle Yale next week to get the outright title. Otherwise they have to share.
MEAC: The MEAC sends its winner to the “Celebration Bowl” against the SWAC winner, which is the defacto HBCU National Championship. This creates a situation where the only way to win a National Championship out of the MEAC is to NOT win the league. Until recently that never happened, making me think it never would. But then it did. Which I think is dumb. But now we have to deal with it.
Work to Do
South Carolina State (7-3, 5-2): If anyone in the MEAC qualifies for the playoffs it will likely be South Carolina State. Out of the Celebration Bowl due to a loss to #25 North Carolina A&T, the Bulldogs other losses are to #12 Florida A&M and FBS USF. The kicker is that SCSU has a win over #21 Wofford who is likely to be the Southern Conference champion. Assuming a win over Norfolk State this week (and a win by North Carolina A&T to avoid the Celebration Bowl) and SCSU will certainly be in the conversation next week.
Needs Help
North Carolina A&T (7-3, 5-2): The 25th ranked Aggies handled Bethune-Cookman and now have the inside track for the Celebration Bowl. They would need to lose to North Carolina Central (4-7) to avoid the bowl game and be playoff eligible. That would give them two bad losses, and it would be unlikely they could get in out of the MEAC at that point. Although they would have wins over BCC and South Carolina State.
Bethune-Cookman (6-4, 4-3): The Wildcats had a very bad loss to Delaware State last week. That coupled with their current three game losing streak gives BCC four losses and no good wins. A win over FAMU next week would put them in the conversation with one good win, but it seems doubtful that would be enough to get them over the hump.
Out
Florida A&M (9-1, 7-0): The 12th ranked Rattlers clinched the MEAC regular season title, however, their athletic department participated in some f***ery over the offseason and FAMU is not eligible for the postseason.
North Carolina Central (4-7, 3-4), Norfolk State (5-6, 4-3), Howard (1-10, 1-6), Morgan State (3-8, 2-5), Delaware State (2-9, 1-7)
Missouri Valley Football Conference: The SEC of the FCS is having a down year, but still has a few of the best teams in the nation and a strong group of teams overall. The depth just isn’t where it typically is, but five playoff teams is a possibility.
Lock
North Dakota State (11-0, 7-0): The top-ranked Bison handled South Dakota this week, and with Dartmouth’s loss became the last remaining undefeated team. A trip to Carbondale to face Southern Illinois is all that stands between NDSU and another #1 seed. However, even with a loss it is doubtful they fall below #2.
South Dakota State (8-3, 5-2): After a couple of disappointing losses to NDSU and Illinois State, the 8th ranked Jackrabbits locked in a playoff spot and likely a seed with a dominant 38-7 win over #4 Northern Iowa this week. It was SDSU’s much needed marquee win (after the aforementioned losses and a loss by 7 to Minnesota), with a relatively weak noncon schedule they needed it. But now that they have it they’re in and will likely be seeded and get a bye with a win over South Dakota this week.
Illinois State (8-3, 5-2): The 7th ranked Redbirds locked in a playoff spot, albeit in shaky fashion, with a 17-12 win over 1-9 Missouri State this week that required a last second stop to hold off the Bears. After a home loss to #4 UNI three weeks ago, Illinois State started to panic, but righted the ship with a big win at #8 SDSU and are now likely in the playoffs no matter what happens next week (losses to NDSU, UNI and Northern Illinois). A win at Youngstown State next week likely puts the Redbirds amongst the seeds and gives them a bye on the playoffs opening weekend.
Work to Do
Northern Iowa (7-4, 5-2): The 4th ranked Panthers played their biggest regular season game of the decade this week……and absolutely failed to even show up. After a 38-7 loss to #4 SDSU, a game in which UNI was looking to lock up a top-4 seed, it seems unlikely UNI will be seeded and will once again be a first weekend playoff team. The bigger problem is the offense. With injuries piling up and a mediocre quarterback, UNI has now scored a total of 7 points in the last six quarters. A win at home over 1-10 Western Illinois next week gets UNI safely in the playoffs (and a seed is not entirely out of the question but is unlikely…losses are all to top 8 teams and Iowa State with a win over a top 8 team), but the Panthers missed a huge opportunity this week. They were outplayed and outcoached in every single facet of the game.
Southern Illinois (7-4, 5-2): The Salukis won their fifth straight game this week as they continued to tear through the MVFC’s fleshy bottom half, beating all five lower division MVFC teams in order. SIU has an interesting resume. All four losses are acceptable (#7 Illinois State, #8 South Dakota State, #15 SEMO, Arkansas State (FBS)) and they have a dominant FBS win (by 25 over one of the nation’s worst teams, UMass). They also have a win over 7-4 UT-Martin, a bubble team out of the OVC. They also have an opportunity with #1 NDSU coming to Carbondale next week. A win over the Bison puts SIU easily in. But assuming a loss, SIU will have to hope the bubble falls to five losses and that they get the benefit of the doubt.
Out
Youngstown State (5-6, 1-6), South Dakota (4-7, 3-4), Indiana State (4-7, 2-5), Missouri State (1-9, 1-6), Western Illinois (1-10, 1-6)
Northeast Conference: The NEC limits their scholarships below a fully-funded level and has never had an at-large bid. So it seems unlikely that will happen this year.
Lock
Central Connecticut State (10-1, 6-0): A dominant win by the 19th ranked Blue Devils over Robert Morris, coupled with Duquesne’s surprise loss, means that next week’s showdown with the Dukes is meaningless and CCSU has clinched the Northeast Conference automatic bid with a week to spare. This league looked to be an exciting showdown, but it sort of fizzled out. Congrats to the Blue Devils on the playoff bid.
Unlikely
Robert Morris (6-5, 5-1): The Coloniels made it interesting by beating Duquesne last week, and could’ve clinched the autobid this week, but the 21 point loss to CCSU was their fifth, and that won’t be enough for an at-large out of the NEC.
Duquesne (6-4, 4-2): Two straight losses, including a shocker to Bryant this week, put the expected NEC championship game against CCSU next week on ice along with the Dukes playoff chances. Four losses out of the NEC, and a Pioneer League and D2 win, aren’t enough for playoff consideration.
Sacred Heart (7-4, 5-2): The Pioneers have beaten a number of Patriot League teams. So that’s nice. But they will not make the playoffs.
Out
St. Francis PA (5-6, 3-4), Wagner (1-10, 1-5), Bryant (3-8, 2-4), Long Island (0-9, 0-7)
Ohio Valley Conference: Typically a middling league, the OVC has two likely playoff teams and one more that will be on the bubble this season.
In Good Shape
Southeast Missouri State (8-3, 6-1): Despite not having the autobid, the 15th ranked Redhawks may actually be in better playoff position than Austin Peay. Their losses are to Missouri, #10 Montana State and Peay, and they have a good nonconference win over Southern Illinois. It is certainly a cleaner resume. A win over Murray State (4-7) this week should make SEMO a lock, and a loss puts them on the bubble.
Work to Do
Austin Peay (8-3, 6-1): All the 22nd ranked Governors need to do to clinch a playoff spot is beat 1-10 Eastern Illinois and they will be the OVC’s automatic bid. Long an also-ran, APU can clinch its FIRST EVER playoff appearance with a win. With a loss, APU is an interesting case, but they might not have enough. They would have wins over the OVC’s best teams, but three losses to teams that are a combined 6-27. Just go do it Peay.
Needs Help
UT Martin (7-4, 5-2): Martin has no bad losses (Florida, SIU, #17 SEMO, #22 Austin Peay), but the Skyhawks will need a lot of help or a miracle to get into the field. They could certainly play their way in with a win this week against Kentucky, but failing that the bubble would really need to expand to get a five loss OVC team whose best wins are against 6-5 OVC teams into the field.
Unlikely
Eastern Kentucky (6-5, 4-3): Despite a win over Tennessee Tech this week, EKU seems like a longshot. They have a Pioneer League win and a pretty bad loss (Indiana State), and it seems doubtful the OVC can put a five-loss team in the field. Their best win is Tennessee Tech, although they do play Jacksonville State this week.
Tennessee Tech (6-5, 3-4): The Golden Eagles loss to Eastern Kentucky probably puts the kabosh on their playoff chances, as the league would probably need at least 4 teams in the field for them to have a chance. Their biggest win, by far, is Jacksonville State. It does not help that their FCS nonconference opponents are a combined 6-24.
Jacksonville State (6-5, 3-4): The Gamecocks, who have been by far the best OVC program in the last 5 or so years, have lost to every OVC team with a pulse. Even with a decent noncon schedule and an OK win over Eastern Washington (6-5), that will be too much to overcome. Even with a win over EKU this week.
Out
Murray State (4-7, 2-5), Tennessee State (2-9, 1-6), Eastern Illinois (1-10, 1-6)
Patriot League: This league has, historically, had some pretty good teams that have made some playoff runs. That does not appear to be the case this year.
Work to Do
Holy Cross (6-5, 4-1): Alarm bells sounded when Holy Cross lost to Lafayette last week, putting the 3-7 Leopards in control of the Patriot League autobid. But Colgate handled Lafayette and that puts Holy Cross (the only Patriot League team with a winning record) back in control. Very simply, a win over Georgetown will put Holy Cross into the field with the Patriot League’s auto bid. A loss even gets them in if Lafayette loses to Lehigh.
Needs Help
Lafayette (3-8, 3-2): Lafayette briefly controlled their own destiny, but a loss to Colgate this week put an end to that. Still, despite a 3-8 record and just being a generally terrible football team, they’re not out of it yet. A loss by Holy Cross to Georgetown coupled with a win by Lafayette over Lehigh would put the Leopards into the field with the autobid. National Championship dreams remain!
Lehigh (4-6, 3-2): In the event that Bucknell wins, Lehigh beats Lafayette and Holy Cross loses, Lehigh would be in a 3-way tie in which all teams are 1-1. I believe this would come down to how the teams did against Lafayette, which would give Lehigh the championship. So that is Lehigh’s path to victory. They would need Bucknell to be involved as they would lose a two-way tie with Holy Cross.
Unlikely
Bucknell (3-7, 3-2): In the event that Bucknell wins, Lehigh beats Lafayette and Holy Cross loses, Bucknell would be in a 3-way tie in which all teams are 1-1. I believe this would come down to how the teams did against Lafayette, which would give Lehigh the championship. So Bucknell is probably out, but I’m not entirely sure.
Georgetown (5-5, 1-4): Georgetown technically has not reached six losses. Their 4-1 noncon record was achieved by beating two lesser Ivies, a D2 and by going 1-1 against the Pioneer League so I wouldn’t count on an at-large bid for the Hoyas.
Out
Fordham (3-8, 1-4), Colgate (4-8, 3-3)
Pioneer League: The non-scholarship Pioneer League has never gotten an at-large bid, and in fact has only won one playoff game ever. Don’t expect anything different this year. San Diego has emerged as the consistent class of the league.
Lock
San Diego (8-2, 7-0): The Torreros have absolutely dominated the Pioneer League this year, and their 52-20 win over Morehead State clinched them the title and a playoff spot. The Pioneer League isn’t good, but San Diego is. Whoever gets matched up with them in the first round better not take them lightly.
Unlikely
Dayton (7-3, 5-2): A win over Indiana State is very impressive for a Pioneer League team, but the Sycamores are 4-7 and Dayton has three losses, two to Pioneer League teams. Unlikely to get a bid, but claimed the title of “probably the league’s second best team” by beating Drake this week.
Davidson (8-3, 5-2): Their wins are over two D2s and a middling Patriot League team (Georgetown). That isn’t going to be enough for an at-large. Will battle Drake for the bronze medal this week.
Drake (5-5, 5-2): Drake still had a mathematical shot going into the week, but a loss to Dayton and San Diego’s win ended that. Will pay for the title of 3rd best team in the Pioneer League this week against Davidson.
Stetson (6-4, 3-4): Their 3-0 nonconference was achieved against no DI teams.
Out
Morehead State (5-6, 3-4), Marist (3-7, 3-4), Butler (3-8, 2-5), Valpo (1-10, 1-6), Jacksonville (3-8, 1-6)
Southern Conference: It wasn’t a great week for this league’s playoff hopes, but it was a great week for Wofford.
Lock
Wofford (7-3, 6-1): The 21st ranked Terriers got a massive win that, coupled with the Citadel’s loss to Furman, clinched Wofford the Southern Conference’s automatic bid. The game was a bit of a surprise as Furman was the favorite, but Wofford is IN. With a win over Citadel next week, the Terriers are in the conversation for a seed, but are more likely to play on the first weekend of the playoffs.
Work to Do
Furman (7-4, 6-2): The Paladins had a chance to sew up the SoCon and put themselves in position for a seed. Instead they got beaten badly by Wofford. Furman is still 7-2 against FCS competition and had two close FBS losses (by 6 to Georgia State and by 7 to Virginia Tech), with losses only to Citadel (6-5) and #21 Wofford. They don’t have any real impressive wins and won’t feel completely comfortable on selection Sunday even with a win over their D2 opponent on the final week. But they still are a good bet to make the field.
Needs Help
The Citadel (6-5, 4-3): The Bulldogs have had a weird season in which they have lost to a handful of mediocre but not terrible teams in Elon, Towson, Samford, VMI and now Chattanooga. But they also have wins over Georgia Tech and Furman with Wofford still on the schedule. Their loss to Chattanooga this week probably did them in. Even with three big wins the Citadel probably will struggle to find a playoff spot with five FCS losses.
Chattanooga (6-5, 5-2): The Mocs win over the Citadel this week technically kept them just a game out of first. A win by Citadel over Wofford can give UTC a share of the league title. But losses to Wofford and Furman would keep them from getting the autobid. The Mocs have no bad losses but have no substantive wins and has just had too many losses pile up. If we do get to a point where a 7-5 SoCon team is considered, the choice of Chatty or Citadel would be a good look into what the committee values, as they have the opposite type of resumes.
Out
VMI (4-7, 3-4), Samford (5-6, 4-4), Mercer (4-7, 3-5), East Tennessee State (3-8, 1-7), Western Carolina (3-8, 2-6)
Southland Conference: This week’s action has cleared up a messy playoff picture a bit, as three teams have emerged as possible playoff contenders.
In Good Shape
Central Arkansas (8-3, 6-2): UCA cannot win the Southland autobid due to losses to SELA and Nicholls, but the 14th ranked Bears may be in better playoff position than either team that can. Losses to the two Southland co-leaders and Hawaii are offset by an FBS win over Western Kentucky and a win over OVC leader #22 Austin Peay. A win at UIW should be enough to easily get them into the field, and even with a loss they’re on the bubble but have a shot.
Work To Do
Southeastern Louisiana (7-3, 6-2): The 23rd ranked Lions victory over Abeline Christian puts them just one win away from clinching the Southland title and automatic bid. After a rough patch in which they lost to UIW and McNeese, SELA has won four straight, including a win over Central Arkansas. They’ll need to win to feel safe. A loss puts them squarely on the buble.
Nicholls State (7-4, 6-2): 24th ranked Nicholls State also won this week (over McNeese) and can also clinch the league’s automatic bid with a win over SELA this week. Nicholls has an up-and-down resume that includes the win over Central Arkansas, two FBS losses, and questionable losses to Sam Houston and Abeline Christian. The ACU loss hurts. Like SELA, they’d be on the bubble with a loss, but they would be on much more precarious ground than SELA with five losses.
Unlikely
Sam Houston State (6-5, 5-3): A very poorly timed loss to Northwestern State (3-8) this week may have sunk the Bearkats, who were already very much on the bubble as it was. That adds to a list of losses that includes Lamar (4-7), along with #14 UCA, North Dakota and (barely) FBS New Mexico. A win over Nicholls is probably not enough.
McNeese State (6-5, 4-4): McNeese needed to beat Nicholls this week, and they were unable to do that. They do have a good win over #23 SELA, but that is probably not enough to overcome five losses, including losses to Abeline Christian and Sam Houston.
Out
Incarnate Word (4-4, 5-6), Abiline Christian (4-5, 5-6), Lamar, (4-7, 2-6), Houston Baptist (5-6, 2-5)., Northwestern State (3-8, 3-5), Stephen F Austin (2-9, 2-6)
SWAC: Like the MEAC they send their teams to the Celebration Bowl, and they have their own league title game first. That takes two teams off the big board before the can be picked. The SWAC has never had a team picked under this format. Seems doubtful that will change this year.
Unlikely
Southern (7-4, 5-1): Southern needs to lose again to avoid the SWAC title game. That would give them five losses so they are not viable playoff candidates.
Grambling (6-4, 4-2): Grambling, the traditional power of the SWAC, would have to lose again to avoid the SWAC title game. That would give them five losses. So they are also not a viable candidate.
Alabama A&M (6-5, 3-3): Alabama A&M has 5 losses and two D2 wins. Not happening
Alabama State (5-5, 4-2): The Hornets also have five losses. Unlikely to get in out of the SWAC with five anyway, but even if someone did, it would be one of the teams above not ASU.
Arkansas Pine Bluff (5-5, 2-4): Might be the most “our presence on this list is a technicality” team in this whole rundown.
Prairie View A&M (5-5, 3-3): Unless its these guys.
Out
Alcorn State (7-3, 5-1): Alcorn State is in the SWAC title game and is not eligible for the playoffs.
Jackson State (4-6, 3-2), Mississippi Valley State (2-7, 1-4), Texas Southern (0-10, 0-6)
If the playoffs started today, here is what I would have as playoff teams.
Big Sky (4): Weber State, Sacramento State, Montana, Montana State
Big South (2): Monmouth, Kennesaw State
CAA (4): James Madison, Villanova, Albany
Independents (0)
MEAC (0)
MVFC (5): NDSU, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, SDSU, Southern Illinois
NEC (1): CCSU
OVC (2): Austin Peay, SEMO
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (2): Furman, Wofford
Southland (3): UCA, SELA, Nicholls
SWAC (0)
Last 4 In: Nicholls, Albany, Southern Illinois, Kennesaw State
First 4 Out: North Dakota, Towson, South Carolina State, UT-Martin
Next Out: Maine, Eastern Washington, New Hampshire, Citadel, Chattanooga, Sam Houston, McNeese, Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State
Seeds: NDSU, James Madison, Montana, Weber State, Illinois State, Sac State, SDSU, UNI?
I have been making these for my friends who are not fans of FCS teams but are curious and interested, and I figured it would make sense to post them here. I am certain there are some inaccuracies, but I think overall it is a pretty good summary of where we are at. Takes me a couple hours each week. Anyway, here you are for your reading pleasure.
PS- I mostly just read posts here these days, but I used to have a handle on here. Couldn't remember the login info so I had to start anew.
State of the FCS
With just one week to go, the FCS playoff picture has started to come into focus just a little bit, but there is still quite a bit on the line in the final week. Here are the categories I will place every team.
Lock: These teams are 100% in. Even if they lose next week, they are 100% in the field.
In Good Shape: These teams aren’t locks, but are definitely in with a win, and still have a good chance to make it even with a loss.
Work To Do: These are your bubble teams. Most have a good chance to make it with a win, but will likely be out with a loss.
Needs Help: These teams need to win and cross their fingers. A win only puts them on the bubble and in the conversation. It still might not be enough.
Unlikely: These teams have not hit the six loss threshold, but will likely not make it even with a win next week.
Out: These teams have six losses and are “out” by my calculations. No matter what they do, they can’t finish with a winning record and get in.
There used to be an unofficial hard rule of 7 DI wins to be eligible for an at-large bid. But since the field has expanded to 24 that has gone away and several 6-win teams have made it. This year is one of those random years where there is an extra week in the season and FCS teams can play 12 games, so 6 losses is the plateau for disconsideration (leaving you either 5-6 or 6-6). I wont consider teams with 6 losses. With rankings, I’ll use the STATS FCS poll. We’ll go conference by conference. Here we go.
Big Sky Conference: If you’re a Big Sky fan who wants to see as many Big Sky teams as possible in field and seeded, things went about as well as possible for you today.
Locks
Montana (9-2, 6-1): It was a very good week for the 5th ranked Griz, who claimed a 35-16 victory over #3 Weber State to lock in a playoff spot for the first time since 2015. The historical FCS power has been down for a few years, but the win over the #3 team, coupled with #4 UNI’s loss puts Montana in a position to grab the 3 or 4 seed (and two guaranteed home playoff games as long as they’re in it) with a win at #10 Montana State next week. A tall order, to be sure, but even if they don’t pull it off a seed is a possibility for the Griz. Montana is in a 3-way tie with Weber State who they beat and Sac State who they lost to (something we’ll see in the MVFC as well). The Griz’s only other loss is to Oregon.
Weber State (8-3, 6-1): With wins over #6 Sacramento State and #4 UNI, 3rd ranked (for now) Weber is still safely in the field despite a 19 point loss to #5 Montana this week. The loss is Weber’s first FCS loss, as the other two came by 6 to Mountain West teams. While they may have lost their top 4 status…they should still be able to secure a seed and a bye with a W over 3-8 Idaho State this week. And a top-4 seed is not entirely out of the question.
Sacramento State (8-3, 6-1): The 6th ranked Hornets easily handled Idaho to remain tied for first in the Big Sky with Montana (who they beat) and Weber State (who they lost to). They only have one FCS loss to Weber (along with a 12 point loss to Arizona State and a 14 point loss to Fresno State), and quality wins over Montana and Montana State (and a decent one against Eastern Washington). They are solidly in the field and should be able to lock up a seed by handling UC-Davis next week (which is easier said than done).
In Good Shape
Montana State (8-3, 5-2): The 10th ranked Bobcats may have wrapped up a playoff bid with their win over UC-Davis today to get to eight wins. There is no shame in their losses to Texas Tech, #6 Sacramento State and North Dakota. But the Bobcats, who do not play Weber State this year, have only one good win over the Ohio Valley’s #15 Southeast Missouri State. Even with a loss to #5 Montana this week, MSU is probably in but may need to sweat it out a bit on Selection Sunday. If they beat the Griz, they are in the conversation for a seed.
Needs Help
Eastern Washington (6-5, 5-2): A blowout win over Cal Poly kept faint playoff hopes alive for the Eagles, who are probably better than their record indicates. But with a D2 win and a loss to Idaho (4-7) already on the ledger, they would definitely need the bubble to weaken without a real quality win (#26RV North Dakota is their best). The best they can hope for is a weak bubble, and that the committee smiles on them.
Out
UC-Davis (5-6, 3-4), Portland State (5-6, 3-4), Northern Arizona (4-7, 2-5), Idaho (4-7, 2-5), Idaho State (3-8, 2-5), Northern Colorado (2-9, 2-5), Cal Poly (2-8, 1-6), and Southern Utah (3-8, 2-5)
Big South: Both realistic playoff contenders got easy wins this week, giving the weak Big South a decent shot at two bids.
Lock
Monmouth (9-2, 5-0): The 17th ranked Hawks clinched the autobid with an easy win 47-10 win over Campbell. They are now guaranteed a spot in the field, even if they lose to Hampton, which is unlikely. The weakness of the Big South makes it unlikely Monmouth secures a seed (despite the fact that their losses are to Western Michigan and #5 Montana). If they do, that is the bracket you’re going to want to be in. Still, Monmouth has had a good season and deserving of a playoff spot.
Work To Do
Kennesaw State (9-2, 4-1): The 16th ranked Owls (who remain ranked ahead of Monmouth for some reason) have accumulated a number of wins, but they lack a single win of any note whatsoever. Their non-conference wins came over two D2 teams, a 5-5 SWAC team, a 1-9 MVFC team and a 4-7 independent. They lost badly to their only decent conference opponent, 45-21 at home to Monmouth. Assuming a win over 3-8 Gardner-Webb next week…..is a big pile of worthless wins (8-1 against FCS competition) enough to get in? I will guess yes, but I don’t think they deserve it.
Unlikely
Campbell (6-4, 3-2): Campbell had a fun run, including taking Kennesaw State to the brink two weeks ago, but their blowout loss to Monmouth likely seals their fate. They now have losses to Kennesaw and Monmouth as well as a head scratching loss to North Alabama, as well as a D2 and Pioneer League win. Just not enough out of the Big South.
Out
Hampton (5-6, 1-4), Gardner-Webb (3-8, 1-4), North Alabama (4-7, ineligible anyway), Charleston Southern (5-6, 3-2), Presbyterian (1-10, 1-5).
Colonial Athletic Association: The CAA continues to be a mess, but the playoff picture does look a little clearer, for-better-or-worse, after today’s action.
Lock
James Madison (10-1, 7-0): The 2nd ranked Dukes were already a lock before this week, but the blowout win over Richmond made it officially official as they have now clinched the CAA’s automatic bid. James Madison, who is undefeated against FCS competition with only a 20-13 loss to West Virginia as a blemish on their resume, can ensure that the road to Frisco will run through Harrisonburg (by clinching at least a #2 seed) with a win over Rhode Island next week. They’re still very likely seeded even with a loss.
Work To Do
Villanova (8-3, 4-3): The 13th ranked Wildcats won this week, but it was over one of the worst teams in the nation (Long Island who is an NEC team transitioning from D2), and it didn’t do a ton to help their profile. I considered putting Nova into the “in good shape category” but due to an aggressively bad non-conference schedule (3 bad Patriot League teams and a very bad NEC team), coupled with a lack of JMU or Albany on the resume (and a relatively bad loss to Stony Brook) means Nova will have to win over Delaware this week to truly feel great about their chances.
Albany (7-4, 5-2): The Great Danes took on New Hampshire this week in a game many considered to be a play-in game, and Albany took it by a score of 24-17 at home. Losses to Central Michigan, Monmouth, Richmond and Maine aren’t damning, but their only quality win is 7-4 Towson. A win over Stony Brook gives Albany decent chance to get selected. But it isn’t a sure thing.
Towson (7-4, 4-3): The 20th ranked Tigers have benefitted from the collapse of the CAA bubble as their four-loss status is enough to keep them in the conversation. Towson has an OK noncon win over the Citadel, and excusable losses to Florida, James Madison, Albany and Villanova. Three straight wins is clutch, but they’ll need to make it four to have a shot at the postseason. Even than, it will be a nervous Selection Sunday for Towson.
Needs Help
New Hampshire (5-5, 4-3): Despite the fact that the committee picked New Hampshire #10 in their poll two weeks ago, a playoff bid seems unlikely at this point for UNH. Since then, the Wildcats have lost twice, making it difficult for them to snag a spot even a win with over Maine this week. A win over Villanova is probably not enough to get in at 6-5. A loss by Towson would help.
Maine (6-5, 4-3): I initially categorized Maine as an “unlikely” team, but four straight wins have put Maine back in the conversation. A win over New Hampshire this week is a must. Then, it is time to cross your fingers that the bubble falls to you. With two FBS losses, along with Towson, Villanova and Richmond, Maine is officially at least in the conversation, but a lack of big wins might keep them out.
Out
Richmond, (5-6, 4-3), Stony Brook (5-6, 2-5), Delaware (5-6, 3-4), Elon (4-6, 3-4), William and Mary (4-7, 2-5), Rhode Island (0-7, 2-9)
Independents: Two teams are independents this year. One is transitioning to the MVFC next year, while the other is transitioning from D2 to the NEC.
Work to Do
North Dakota (6-4): The Fighting Hawks stayed on the bubble with a win over Northern Colorado. They have a win over #10 Montana State that just keeps looking better very week. They have one weird loss to Idaho State (3-8) and if they don’t get in that will be why. Other losses are to #1 NDSU, #3 Weber and Eastern Washington which is looking much better. UND has to handle Southern Utah this week to get on the bubble and then cross their fingers.
Out
Merrimack (5-5): Merrimack is not eligible as a D2 transitioning team…..but they wouldn’t have any shot anyway with 3 D2s on their schedule and mostly NEC teams otherwise.
Ivy League: The Ivy League does not participate in the FCS playoffs. Too bad, having them would be fun. Dartmouth was cruising to an outright championship before being shocked by lowly Cornell. Now they need Harvard to handle Yale next week to get the outright title. Otherwise they have to share.
MEAC: The MEAC sends its winner to the “Celebration Bowl” against the SWAC winner, which is the defacto HBCU National Championship. This creates a situation where the only way to win a National Championship out of the MEAC is to NOT win the league. Until recently that never happened, making me think it never would. But then it did. Which I think is dumb. But now we have to deal with it.
Work to Do
South Carolina State (7-3, 5-2): If anyone in the MEAC qualifies for the playoffs it will likely be South Carolina State. Out of the Celebration Bowl due to a loss to #25 North Carolina A&T, the Bulldogs other losses are to #12 Florida A&M and FBS USF. The kicker is that SCSU has a win over #21 Wofford who is likely to be the Southern Conference champion. Assuming a win over Norfolk State this week (and a win by North Carolina A&T to avoid the Celebration Bowl) and SCSU will certainly be in the conversation next week.
Needs Help
North Carolina A&T (7-3, 5-2): The 25th ranked Aggies handled Bethune-Cookman and now have the inside track for the Celebration Bowl. They would need to lose to North Carolina Central (4-7) to avoid the bowl game and be playoff eligible. That would give them two bad losses, and it would be unlikely they could get in out of the MEAC at that point. Although they would have wins over BCC and South Carolina State.
Bethune-Cookman (6-4, 4-3): The Wildcats had a very bad loss to Delaware State last week. That coupled with their current three game losing streak gives BCC four losses and no good wins. A win over FAMU next week would put them in the conversation with one good win, but it seems doubtful that would be enough to get them over the hump.
Out
Florida A&M (9-1, 7-0): The 12th ranked Rattlers clinched the MEAC regular season title, however, their athletic department participated in some f***ery over the offseason and FAMU is not eligible for the postseason.
North Carolina Central (4-7, 3-4), Norfolk State (5-6, 4-3), Howard (1-10, 1-6), Morgan State (3-8, 2-5), Delaware State (2-9, 1-7)
Missouri Valley Football Conference: The SEC of the FCS is having a down year, but still has a few of the best teams in the nation and a strong group of teams overall. The depth just isn’t where it typically is, but five playoff teams is a possibility.
Lock
North Dakota State (11-0, 7-0): The top-ranked Bison handled South Dakota this week, and with Dartmouth’s loss became the last remaining undefeated team. A trip to Carbondale to face Southern Illinois is all that stands between NDSU and another #1 seed. However, even with a loss it is doubtful they fall below #2.
South Dakota State (8-3, 5-2): After a couple of disappointing losses to NDSU and Illinois State, the 8th ranked Jackrabbits locked in a playoff spot and likely a seed with a dominant 38-7 win over #4 Northern Iowa this week. It was SDSU’s much needed marquee win (after the aforementioned losses and a loss by 7 to Minnesota), with a relatively weak noncon schedule they needed it. But now that they have it they’re in and will likely be seeded and get a bye with a win over South Dakota this week.
Illinois State (8-3, 5-2): The 7th ranked Redbirds locked in a playoff spot, albeit in shaky fashion, with a 17-12 win over 1-9 Missouri State this week that required a last second stop to hold off the Bears. After a home loss to #4 UNI three weeks ago, Illinois State started to panic, but righted the ship with a big win at #8 SDSU and are now likely in the playoffs no matter what happens next week (losses to NDSU, UNI and Northern Illinois). A win at Youngstown State next week likely puts the Redbirds amongst the seeds and gives them a bye on the playoffs opening weekend.
Work to Do
Northern Iowa (7-4, 5-2): The 4th ranked Panthers played their biggest regular season game of the decade this week……and absolutely failed to even show up. After a 38-7 loss to #4 SDSU, a game in which UNI was looking to lock up a top-4 seed, it seems unlikely UNI will be seeded and will once again be a first weekend playoff team. The bigger problem is the offense. With injuries piling up and a mediocre quarterback, UNI has now scored a total of 7 points in the last six quarters. A win at home over 1-10 Western Illinois next week gets UNI safely in the playoffs (and a seed is not entirely out of the question but is unlikely…losses are all to top 8 teams and Iowa State with a win over a top 8 team), but the Panthers missed a huge opportunity this week. They were outplayed and outcoached in every single facet of the game.
Southern Illinois (7-4, 5-2): The Salukis won their fifth straight game this week as they continued to tear through the MVFC’s fleshy bottom half, beating all five lower division MVFC teams in order. SIU has an interesting resume. All four losses are acceptable (#7 Illinois State, #8 South Dakota State, #15 SEMO, Arkansas State (FBS)) and they have a dominant FBS win (by 25 over one of the nation’s worst teams, UMass). They also have a win over 7-4 UT-Martin, a bubble team out of the OVC. They also have an opportunity with #1 NDSU coming to Carbondale next week. A win over the Bison puts SIU easily in. But assuming a loss, SIU will have to hope the bubble falls to five losses and that they get the benefit of the doubt.
Out
Youngstown State (5-6, 1-6), South Dakota (4-7, 3-4), Indiana State (4-7, 2-5), Missouri State (1-9, 1-6), Western Illinois (1-10, 1-6)
Northeast Conference: The NEC limits their scholarships below a fully-funded level and has never had an at-large bid. So it seems unlikely that will happen this year.
Lock
Central Connecticut State (10-1, 6-0): A dominant win by the 19th ranked Blue Devils over Robert Morris, coupled with Duquesne’s surprise loss, means that next week’s showdown with the Dukes is meaningless and CCSU has clinched the Northeast Conference automatic bid with a week to spare. This league looked to be an exciting showdown, but it sort of fizzled out. Congrats to the Blue Devils on the playoff bid.
Unlikely
Robert Morris (6-5, 5-1): The Coloniels made it interesting by beating Duquesne last week, and could’ve clinched the autobid this week, but the 21 point loss to CCSU was their fifth, and that won’t be enough for an at-large out of the NEC.
Duquesne (6-4, 4-2): Two straight losses, including a shocker to Bryant this week, put the expected NEC championship game against CCSU next week on ice along with the Dukes playoff chances. Four losses out of the NEC, and a Pioneer League and D2 win, aren’t enough for playoff consideration.
Sacred Heart (7-4, 5-2): The Pioneers have beaten a number of Patriot League teams. So that’s nice. But they will not make the playoffs.
Out
St. Francis PA (5-6, 3-4), Wagner (1-10, 1-5), Bryant (3-8, 2-4), Long Island (0-9, 0-7)
Ohio Valley Conference: Typically a middling league, the OVC has two likely playoff teams and one more that will be on the bubble this season.
In Good Shape
Southeast Missouri State (8-3, 6-1): Despite not having the autobid, the 15th ranked Redhawks may actually be in better playoff position than Austin Peay. Their losses are to Missouri, #10 Montana State and Peay, and they have a good nonconference win over Southern Illinois. It is certainly a cleaner resume. A win over Murray State (4-7) this week should make SEMO a lock, and a loss puts them on the bubble.
Work to Do
Austin Peay (8-3, 6-1): All the 22nd ranked Governors need to do to clinch a playoff spot is beat 1-10 Eastern Illinois and they will be the OVC’s automatic bid. Long an also-ran, APU can clinch its FIRST EVER playoff appearance with a win. With a loss, APU is an interesting case, but they might not have enough. They would have wins over the OVC’s best teams, but three losses to teams that are a combined 6-27. Just go do it Peay.
Needs Help
UT Martin (7-4, 5-2): Martin has no bad losses (Florida, SIU, #17 SEMO, #22 Austin Peay), but the Skyhawks will need a lot of help or a miracle to get into the field. They could certainly play their way in with a win this week against Kentucky, but failing that the bubble would really need to expand to get a five loss OVC team whose best wins are against 6-5 OVC teams into the field.
Unlikely
Eastern Kentucky (6-5, 4-3): Despite a win over Tennessee Tech this week, EKU seems like a longshot. They have a Pioneer League win and a pretty bad loss (Indiana State), and it seems doubtful the OVC can put a five-loss team in the field. Their best win is Tennessee Tech, although they do play Jacksonville State this week.
Tennessee Tech (6-5, 3-4): The Golden Eagles loss to Eastern Kentucky probably puts the kabosh on their playoff chances, as the league would probably need at least 4 teams in the field for them to have a chance. Their biggest win, by far, is Jacksonville State. It does not help that their FCS nonconference opponents are a combined 6-24.
Jacksonville State (6-5, 3-4): The Gamecocks, who have been by far the best OVC program in the last 5 or so years, have lost to every OVC team with a pulse. Even with a decent noncon schedule and an OK win over Eastern Washington (6-5), that will be too much to overcome. Even with a win over EKU this week.
Out
Murray State (4-7, 2-5), Tennessee State (2-9, 1-6), Eastern Illinois (1-10, 1-6)
Patriot League: This league has, historically, had some pretty good teams that have made some playoff runs. That does not appear to be the case this year.
Work to Do
Holy Cross (6-5, 4-1): Alarm bells sounded when Holy Cross lost to Lafayette last week, putting the 3-7 Leopards in control of the Patriot League autobid. But Colgate handled Lafayette and that puts Holy Cross (the only Patriot League team with a winning record) back in control. Very simply, a win over Georgetown will put Holy Cross into the field with the Patriot League’s auto bid. A loss even gets them in if Lafayette loses to Lehigh.
Needs Help
Lafayette (3-8, 3-2): Lafayette briefly controlled their own destiny, but a loss to Colgate this week put an end to that. Still, despite a 3-8 record and just being a generally terrible football team, they’re not out of it yet. A loss by Holy Cross to Georgetown coupled with a win by Lafayette over Lehigh would put the Leopards into the field with the autobid. National Championship dreams remain!
Lehigh (4-6, 3-2): In the event that Bucknell wins, Lehigh beats Lafayette and Holy Cross loses, Lehigh would be in a 3-way tie in which all teams are 1-1. I believe this would come down to how the teams did against Lafayette, which would give Lehigh the championship. So that is Lehigh’s path to victory. They would need Bucknell to be involved as they would lose a two-way tie with Holy Cross.
Unlikely
Bucknell (3-7, 3-2): In the event that Bucknell wins, Lehigh beats Lafayette and Holy Cross loses, Bucknell would be in a 3-way tie in which all teams are 1-1. I believe this would come down to how the teams did against Lafayette, which would give Lehigh the championship. So Bucknell is probably out, but I’m not entirely sure.
Georgetown (5-5, 1-4): Georgetown technically has not reached six losses. Their 4-1 noncon record was achieved by beating two lesser Ivies, a D2 and by going 1-1 against the Pioneer League so I wouldn’t count on an at-large bid for the Hoyas.
Out
Fordham (3-8, 1-4), Colgate (4-8, 3-3)
Pioneer League: The non-scholarship Pioneer League has never gotten an at-large bid, and in fact has only won one playoff game ever. Don’t expect anything different this year. San Diego has emerged as the consistent class of the league.
Lock
San Diego (8-2, 7-0): The Torreros have absolutely dominated the Pioneer League this year, and their 52-20 win over Morehead State clinched them the title and a playoff spot. The Pioneer League isn’t good, but San Diego is. Whoever gets matched up with them in the first round better not take them lightly.
Unlikely
Dayton (7-3, 5-2): A win over Indiana State is very impressive for a Pioneer League team, but the Sycamores are 4-7 and Dayton has three losses, two to Pioneer League teams. Unlikely to get a bid, but claimed the title of “probably the league’s second best team” by beating Drake this week.
Davidson (8-3, 5-2): Their wins are over two D2s and a middling Patriot League team (Georgetown). That isn’t going to be enough for an at-large. Will battle Drake for the bronze medal this week.
Drake (5-5, 5-2): Drake still had a mathematical shot going into the week, but a loss to Dayton and San Diego’s win ended that. Will pay for the title of 3rd best team in the Pioneer League this week against Davidson.
Stetson (6-4, 3-4): Their 3-0 nonconference was achieved against no DI teams.
Out
Morehead State (5-6, 3-4), Marist (3-7, 3-4), Butler (3-8, 2-5), Valpo (1-10, 1-6), Jacksonville (3-8, 1-6)
Southern Conference: It wasn’t a great week for this league’s playoff hopes, but it was a great week for Wofford.
Lock
Wofford (7-3, 6-1): The 21st ranked Terriers got a massive win that, coupled with the Citadel’s loss to Furman, clinched Wofford the Southern Conference’s automatic bid. The game was a bit of a surprise as Furman was the favorite, but Wofford is IN. With a win over Citadel next week, the Terriers are in the conversation for a seed, but are more likely to play on the first weekend of the playoffs.
Work to Do
Furman (7-4, 6-2): The Paladins had a chance to sew up the SoCon and put themselves in position for a seed. Instead they got beaten badly by Wofford. Furman is still 7-2 against FCS competition and had two close FBS losses (by 6 to Georgia State and by 7 to Virginia Tech), with losses only to Citadel (6-5) and #21 Wofford. They don’t have any real impressive wins and won’t feel completely comfortable on selection Sunday even with a win over their D2 opponent on the final week. But they still are a good bet to make the field.
Needs Help
The Citadel (6-5, 4-3): The Bulldogs have had a weird season in which they have lost to a handful of mediocre but not terrible teams in Elon, Towson, Samford, VMI and now Chattanooga. But they also have wins over Georgia Tech and Furman with Wofford still on the schedule. Their loss to Chattanooga this week probably did them in. Even with three big wins the Citadel probably will struggle to find a playoff spot with five FCS losses.
Chattanooga (6-5, 5-2): The Mocs win over the Citadel this week technically kept them just a game out of first. A win by Citadel over Wofford can give UTC a share of the league title. But losses to Wofford and Furman would keep them from getting the autobid. The Mocs have no bad losses but have no substantive wins and has just had too many losses pile up. If we do get to a point where a 7-5 SoCon team is considered, the choice of Chatty or Citadel would be a good look into what the committee values, as they have the opposite type of resumes.
Out
VMI (4-7, 3-4), Samford (5-6, 4-4), Mercer (4-7, 3-5), East Tennessee State (3-8, 1-7), Western Carolina (3-8, 2-6)
Southland Conference: This week’s action has cleared up a messy playoff picture a bit, as three teams have emerged as possible playoff contenders.
In Good Shape
Central Arkansas (8-3, 6-2): UCA cannot win the Southland autobid due to losses to SELA and Nicholls, but the 14th ranked Bears may be in better playoff position than either team that can. Losses to the two Southland co-leaders and Hawaii are offset by an FBS win over Western Kentucky and a win over OVC leader #22 Austin Peay. A win at UIW should be enough to easily get them into the field, and even with a loss they’re on the bubble but have a shot.
Work To Do
Southeastern Louisiana (7-3, 6-2): The 23rd ranked Lions victory over Abeline Christian puts them just one win away from clinching the Southland title and automatic bid. After a rough patch in which they lost to UIW and McNeese, SELA has won four straight, including a win over Central Arkansas. They’ll need to win to feel safe. A loss puts them squarely on the buble.
Nicholls State (7-4, 6-2): 24th ranked Nicholls State also won this week (over McNeese) and can also clinch the league’s automatic bid with a win over SELA this week. Nicholls has an up-and-down resume that includes the win over Central Arkansas, two FBS losses, and questionable losses to Sam Houston and Abeline Christian. The ACU loss hurts. Like SELA, they’d be on the bubble with a loss, but they would be on much more precarious ground than SELA with five losses.
Unlikely
Sam Houston State (6-5, 5-3): A very poorly timed loss to Northwestern State (3-8) this week may have sunk the Bearkats, who were already very much on the bubble as it was. That adds to a list of losses that includes Lamar (4-7), along with #14 UCA, North Dakota and (barely) FBS New Mexico. A win over Nicholls is probably not enough.
McNeese State (6-5, 4-4): McNeese needed to beat Nicholls this week, and they were unable to do that. They do have a good win over #23 SELA, but that is probably not enough to overcome five losses, including losses to Abeline Christian and Sam Houston.
Out
Incarnate Word (4-4, 5-6), Abiline Christian (4-5, 5-6), Lamar, (4-7, 2-6), Houston Baptist (5-6, 2-5)., Northwestern State (3-8, 3-5), Stephen F Austin (2-9, 2-6)
SWAC: Like the MEAC they send their teams to the Celebration Bowl, and they have their own league title game first. That takes two teams off the big board before the can be picked. The SWAC has never had a team picked under this format. Seems doubtful that will change this year.
Unlikely
Southern (7-4, 5-1): Southern needs to lose again to avoid the SWAC title game. That would give them five losses so they are not viable playoff candidates.
Grambling (6-4, 4-2): Grambling, the traditional power of the SWAC, would have to lose again to avoid the SWAC title game. That would give them five losses. So they are also not a viable candidate.
Alabama A&M (6-5, 3-3): Alabama A&M has 5 losses and two D2 wins. Not happening
Alabama State (5-5, 4-2): The Hornets also have five losses. Unlikely to get in out of the SWAC with five anyway, but even if someone did, it would be one of the teams above not ASU.
Arkansas Pine Bluff (5-5, 2-4): Might be the most “our presence on this list is a technicality” team in this whole rundown.
Prairie View A&M (5-5, 3-3): Unless its these guys.
Out
Alcorn State (7-3, 5-1): Alcorn State is in the SWAC title game and is not eligible for the playoffs.
Jackson State (4-6, 3-2), Mississippi Valley State (2-7, 1-4), Texas Southern (0-10, 0-6)
If the playoffs started today, here is what I would have as playoff teams.
Big Sky (4): Weber State, Sacramento State, Montana, Montana State
Big South (2): Monmouth, Kennesaw State
CAA (4): James Madison, Villanova, Albany
Independents (0)
MEAC (0)
MVFC (5): NDSU, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, SDSU, Southern Illinois
NEC (1): CCSU
OVC (2): Austin Peay, SEMO
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Southern (2): Furman, Wofford
Southland (3): UCA, SELA, Nicholls
SWAC (0)
Last 4 In: Nicholls, Albany, Southern Illinois, Kennesaw State
First 4 Out: North Dakota, Towson, South Carolina State, UT-Martin
Next Out: Maine, Eastern Washington, New Hampshire, Citadel, Chattanooga, Sam Houston, McNeese, Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee Tech, Jacksonville State
Seeds: NDSU, James Madison, Montana, Weber State, Illinois State, Sac State, SDSU, UNI?