MONMOUTH OR CCSU? ONE OF THEM DEF GETS A SEED

[MUHAWKS]

Before I get ahead of myself- Obviously I am assuming BOTH teams win next week. If they do I am not sure how one of them does not get a seed and bye.

Frankly, I understand the overall level of competition for both teams is below a lot of the others teams that may not get byes, but we all know politics and optics play a part in this. Looking at the various polls and records, the only 100% definite seeds as of right now seem to be : North Dakota State, James Madison and Montana. I understand many folks will say "Norhern Iowa, Weber St" and some others, but those teams are getting spanked right now. Maybe I should have waited until after all games are played but I just finished watching Monmouth beat Campbell 47-10 and I am at the computer.

So for the sake of argument please, I am just asking ASSUMING one of the two, Monmouth or Central Connecticut gets a seed/bye, which one deserves it (also assuming both teams win next week)

I can firmly say without my Monmouth bias that I do not even see it being very close and that Monmouth should be the team that does.

CCSU arguments FOR:


* would be one of only 2 or 3 teams with 11 total wins (all D-1)

* played an FBS school very tough and almost won.

* won conference outright

CCSU arguments AGAINST

* NO "good" wins

* Only 1 game scheduling "up"

* NEC probably a bit weaker than Big South albeit not by much

* Barely beat Merrimack and took OT to beat St Francis.

-------------------------------------------------------

Monmouth arguments FOR

* Two "good" wins (Albany and Kennesaw)

* one of only a handful of 10 win teams (all D-1)

* won conference outright

* scheduled relatively tough ( 1 FBS, Montana, Albany (CAA) )

* competed very well against a top 3 Montana team on road- down 6 with 10 min left

* Blew out every team in conference play and scored 45 pts or more in all but 1 in which they scored 35

* Ranked higher in both major polls

Monmouth arguments AGAINST

* Barely beat two poor teams in Wagner and Lafayette




I am not trying to be a dick, but if there are more arguments AGAINST Monmouth ONLY as it pertains to being compared to CCSU for a possible seed and bye please by all mean try and convince me.

It seems the only real argument would be we barely beat 2 crappy teams and CCSU sort of did the same thing with Merrimack who is NOT good. And barely escaped St Francis. So the only real argument against MU, CCSU sort of has the same problem. And that CCSU will have 11 wins against our 10..

Just saying- if people are seriously looking at CCSU as a seed, I think it is absurd that they would get one over Monmouth. Would love to hear how my opinion may be flawed?

Also- I realize many folks do not think either should be in consideration over some 3 and even 4 loss bigger teams, but we all know that probably will not be the case.

Even if you give seeds to Weber and winner of Northern Iowa/SDSU that still leaves 3 more teams to seed! It will pit the Illinois States, Sac States and Villanova or Florida A&M of the world against Monmouth and CCSU for 3 spots..

The fact is both Monmouth and CCSU are going to get serious consideration and based on above I think MU is the easy choice..

Thoughts and comments appreciated.

[Southsider]

Y
Before I get ahead of myself- Obviously I am assuming BOTH teams win next week. If they do I am not sure how one of them does not get a seed and bye.

Frankly, I understand the overall level of competition for both teams is below a lot of the others teams that may not get byes, but we all know politics and optics play a part in this. Looking at the various polls and records, the only 100% definite seeds as of right now seem to be : North Dakota State, James Madison and Montana. I understand many folks will say "Norhern Iowa, Weber St" and some others, but those teams are getting spanked right now. Maybe I should have waited until after all games are played but I just finished watching Monmouth beat Campbell 47-10 and I am at the computer.

So for the sake of argument please, I am just asking ASSUMING one of the two, Monmouth or Central Connecticut gets a seed/bye, which one deserves it (also assuming both teams win next week)

I can firmly say without my Monmouth bias that I do not even see it being very close and that Monmouth should be the team that does.

CCSU arguments FOR:


* would be one of only 2 or 3 teams with 11 total wins (all D-1)

* played an FBS school very tough and almost won.

* won conference outright

CCSU arguments AGAINST

* NO "good" wins

* Only 1 game scheduling "up"

* NEC probably a bit weaker than Big South albeit not by much

* Barely beat Merrimack and took OT to beat St Francis.

-------------------------------------------------------

Monmouth arguments FOR

* Two "good" wins (Albany and Kennesaw)

* one of only a handful of 10 win teams (all D-1)

* won conference outright

* scheduled relatively tough ( 1 FBS, Montana, Albany (CAA) )

* competed very well against a top 3 Montana team on road- down 6 with 10 min left

* Blew out every team in conference play and scored 45 pts or more in all but 1 in which they scored 35

* Ranked higher in both major polls

Monmouth arguments AGAINST

* Barely beat two poor teams in Wagner and Lafayette




I am not trying to be a dick, but if there are more arguments AGAINST Monmouth ONLY as it pertains to being compared to CCSU for a possible seed and bye please by all mean try and convince me.

It seems the only real argument would be we barely beat 2 crappy teams and CCSU sort of did the same thing with Merrimack who is NOT good. And barely escaped St Francis. So the only real argument against MU, CCSU sort of has the same problem. And that CCSU will have 11 wins against our 10..

Just saying- if people are seriously looking at CCSU as a seed, I think it is absurd that they would get one over Monmouth. Would love to hear how my opinion may be flawed?

Also- I realize many folks do not think either should be in consideration over some 3 and even 4 loss bigger teams, but we all know that probably will not be the case.

Even if you give seeds to Weber and winner of Northern Iowa/SDSU that still leaves 3 more teams to seed! It will pit the Illinois States, Sac States and Villanova or Florida A&M of the world against Monmouth and CCSU for 3 spots..

The fact is both Monmouth and CCSU are going to get serious consideration and based on above I think MU is the easy choice..

Thoughts and comments appreciated.

Don’t worry about a seed. Both teams are hot. A week off may hurt. Just get in and win!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Someone is going to get the 8 seed as a reward. You do not want the 8 seed; it's not a "reward".

Having to face NDSU in Fargo is a death sentence. I don't care how big your balls are...

[MUHAWKS]

Someone is going to get the 8 seed as a reward. You do not want the 8 seed; it's not a "reward".

Having to face NDSU in Fargo is a death sentence. I don't care how big your balls are...


I get it, but other option could be to platy first round then PLAY the 8 seed on the road to go get the death sentence.. I understand your point, maybe dont get a seed, play like Holy Cross in rd one and if win maybe be lucky to be paired against someone more beatable for the right to go play the 3 or 4 seed or something..

[Gangtackle11]

The NEC or Big South this year is not getting a seed. Nice seasons by both teams, but they aren’t getting a seed. xpeacex

[cx500d]

With uni ****ting the bed, and Illinois state barely squeaking one out, I’d say one or both are worth consideration

[aceinthehole]

At this point, after 11 weeks, it is nearly impossible to objectively rank either team above the other. I'd look at it the two teams as follows:

Wins:
CCSU: NEC - Sacred Heart (7-4), Robert Morris (6-5) | Non-Conf - Fordham (3-6), Columbia (3-6)
MU: Big South - Kennesaw St. (9-2), Campbell (6-4) | Non-Conf - Albany (7-4), Lafayette (3-8)

Slight edge to MU based on win vs. likely playoff team Albany.

FCS Losses:
CCSU: none
MU: at Montana

Slight edge to CCSU for being undefeated, although MU doesn't have a bad loss

FBS Opponent:
CCSU: L, 29-34 at Eastern Michigan
MU: L, 13-48 at Western Michigan

Slight edge to CCSU, as they lost the game on the last play (blocked punt).

NCAA Stats:
CCSU: Top-10 in multiple stats categories, including total defense, turnovers, etc.
MU: ?

Playoff Results:
CCSU: L, 0-14 at New Hampshire (2017)
MU: L, 7-46 at Northern Iowa (2017)

Edge to CCSU, as they almost won that game without our starting QB who was suspended for game

---

CCSU 11-1 (7-0 NEC)
Monmouth 10-2 (8-0 Big South)

I'll let others post their thoughts, but I cannot see how Monmouth has done anything worthy of a seed other than a gaudy number of wins (which CCSU still has 1 more). Neither the Big South or the NEC are considered "power conferences" and I expect the 8 seeds are filled out by MVFC, Big South, and CAA teams. And if the field is really that weak this year, I think CCSU makes a slightly stronger case.

My prediction is CCSU faces Albany and Monmouth gets Towson (or Villanova) in the First Round.

[cx500d]

Big south???? No Fluffy?

[aceinthehole]

IMO the real question: who is lucky enough to get the Patriot League AQ in the First Round?

And second, can Monmouth/CCSU outbid a CAA team for the First Round game?

The NEC only home playoff game was in 2012 when Wagner outbid Colgate (Patriot League). I'm not optimistic CCSU could put up a stronger bid than any CAA team :(

[Professor Chaos]

Monmouth has a better argument than CCSU but I still think UNI should be seeded over both.

[Sader87]

IMO the real question: who is lucky enough to get the Patriot League AQ in the First Round?


Careful what you wish for....Holy Cross is fully capable of beating either CCSU or Monmouth imo.

Very young, inexperienced team, but if they play well, fairly mistake-free etc., they can play and beat a CAA (outside of JMU), NEC or Big South team on any given Saturday.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Careful what you wish for....Holy Cross is fully capable of beating either CCSU or Monmouth imo.

Very young, inexperienced team, but if they play well, fairly mistake-free etc., they can play and beat a CAA (outside of JMU), NEC or Big South team on any given Saturday.

lol...no

[aceinthehole]

Careful what you wish for....Holy Cross is fully capable of beating either CCSU or Monmouth imo.

Very young, inexperienced team, but if they play well, fairly mistake-free etc., they can play and beat a CAA, NEC or Big South team on any given Saturday.

Agreed :) The PL has looked awful this year, but Cross can be a dangerous team and absolutely could beat CCSU or MU.

Do you think HC will put up a strong bid to host?

I expect Holy Cross will be sent out to face a stronger team in the midwest, but they could also easily be paired with Albany, setting up a MU-CCSU First Round matchup.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Agreed :) The PL has looked awful this year, but Cross can be a dangerous team and absolutely could beat CCSU or MU.

Do you think HC will put up a strong bid to host?

I expect Holy Cross will be sent out to face a stronger team in the midwest, but they could also easily be paired with Albany, setting up a MU-CCSU First Round matchup.

Holy Cross's best win recently is against Yale last year. I just don't see it. They just lost Lafayette last week...

[Sader87]

HC also beat UNH this year...a fact that many here want to overlook, explain away etc...

My gut is I doubt we bid for a game this year....sort of backed in (if we do qualify), support is still (re)building for the program etc etc...if we had gone like 9-3 we might have....total, total conjecture on my pahhht though. We still have to beat GTown :)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

HC also beat UNH this year...a fact that many here want to overlook, explain away etc...

My gut is I doubt we bid for a game this year....sort of backed in (if we do qualify), support is still (re)building for the program etc etc...if we had gone like 9-3 we might have....total, total conjecture on my pahhht though. We still have to beat GTown :)

UNH is a 5-5 team and currently experiencing the program's roughest stretch in 15 years...

HC is the least worst of a terrible batch of teams. I don't see them staying within 10 point of any playoff worthy team. And there's going to be a few field fillers this year.

[Sader87]

UNH is a 5-5 team and currently experiencing the program's roughest stretch in 15 years...

HC is the least worst of a terrible batch of teams. I don't see them staying within 10 point of any playoff worthy team. And there's going to be a few field fillers this year.

You're giving far too much credit to FCS teams not in the TOP 10 or so....there really isn't much difference between a team ranked #15 or a team ranked #40 in the FCS imo.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

You're giving far too much credit to FCS teams not in the TOP 10 or so....there really isn't much difference between a team ranked #15 or a team ranked #40 in the FCS imo.

I agree that there's a lot of middling teams after 10 or so. FBS has much more depth 5-20 than FCS. But HC hasn't proven they can beat a playoff caliber team. Yale is the best FCS team they played this season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford has to be in this conversation IMO

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[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Wofford has to be in this conversation IMO

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Absolutely! But you don't want the 8 seed!

[wapiti]

Neither of them deserve a seed.

[Bison56]

Neither team should gets a seed.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

wapiti and bison56 jinx!....lol

[smilo]

I hope the committee takes this thread into consideration in the discussion room.

[Professor Chaos]

Wofford has to be in this conversation IMO

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I think Wofford is in the conversation but the problem is in picking up their best win of the year by far today they devalued their best win of the year because what does Furman have to fall back on now? The Paladins are legit on the bubble right now IMO. Their resume is pretty much set at 7-4 with a D2 game next week. That loss to The Citadel looks a lot worse than it did coming into the day now that El Cid is likely to finish 6-6. I guess their win against Chatty looks a bit better but Chatty isn't a playoff team either. Very little substance to Furman's playoff resume IMO.

[aceinthehole]

I think Wofford is in the conversation but the problem is in picking up their best win of the year by far today they devalued their best win of the year because what does Furman have to fall back on now? The Paladins are legit on the bubble right now IMO. Their resume is pretty much set at 7-4 with a D2 game next week. That loss to The Citadel looks a lot worse than it did coming into the day now that El Cid is likely to finish 6-6. I guess their win against Chatty looks a bit better but Chatty isn't a playoff team either. Very little substance to Furman's playoff resume IMO.

I posted the something similar regarding this earlier this week. With Wofford's clinching the AQ, this certainly give room to consider a MEAC at-large team like NCAT or SCSU instead of Furman.


Furman is certainly in danger of dropping out of playoff consideration with a loss next week at Wofford. The Paladins don't have a win vs. a team with a winning record and their best win right now is at Chattanooga (5-5).

Wofford is in a precious position as well. They have a chance for quality wins vs. Furman and at The Citadel. But with losses to South Carolina St. and Samford, they probably need both of those wins and the AQ bid to be assured a spot.

The Citadel would be the AQ if they win out.

---

While it is likely that the SoCon gets 2 team this year, it is just as possible they only get the AQ if Wofford beats Furman and loses to The Citadel.

Citadel (8-4, 6-2 SoCon) wins tiebreaker and AQ
Wofford (7-4, 6-2 SoCon) lost tiebreaker to Citadel, best win vs. Furman, 1 FBS loss
Furman (8-4, 6-2 SoCon) lost tiebreaker to Wofford/Citadel, 7 D-I wins, none against a winning team, 2 FBS losses

[Professor Chaos]

I posted the something similar regarding this earlier this week. With Wofford's clinching the AQ, this certainly give room to consider a MEAC at-large team like NCAT or SCSU instead of Furman.
I really wish Furman wouldn't have dropped that game against Kennesaw... would've told us a lot about both teams. I hate it when teams schedule 2 FBS and a D2 out of conference... very little can be gleaned from that if the games go how they're supposed to (lose to the FBS and beat the D2). No sympathy from me for Furman if they get left out... they made the bed they're going to sleep in with their non-conference schedule.

[Gangtackle11]

I don’t think Nova is worthy of a seed, but as of the last AGS poll the Cats are ranked 11th, CCSU 14th, & Monmouth 18th.

Nova beats Delaware to finish 9-3 then what makes u guys think these other schools are more worthy?

The answer is nothing. None of the 3 are deserving, but it’s Nova before these 2. xpeacex

PS: almost beating a FBS means little to the committee. A win is great & a loss doesn’t hurt. Being close matters little. Delaware lost to Pitt 17-14. They are home for TDay. xpeacex

[Preferred Walk-On]

I don’t think Nova is worthy of a seed, but as of the last AGS poll the Cats are ranked 11th, CCSU 14th, & Monmouth 18th.

Nova beats Delaware to finish 9-3 then what makes u guys think these other schools are more worthy?

The answer is nothing. None of the 3 are deserving, but it’s Nova before these 2. xpeacex

PS: almost beating a FBS means little to the committee. A win is great & a loss doesn’t hurt. Being close matters little. Delaware lost to Pitt 17-14. They are home for TDay. xpeacex

They are home for TDay, because the best they can do is win 6 games.

[Gangtackle11]

They are home for TDay, because the best they can do is win 6 games.

Ik. A shot at a rival. Couldnt resist. The point is still valid. Close FBS losses don’t matter with the committee. Close FCS wins are better.

Bottomline Nova, CCSU, or Monmouth are not seed worthy. Nova is the best option if they were. Just looK at our own poll results. ✌️

[Professor Chaos]

I don’t think Nova is worthy of a seed, but as of the last AGS poll the Cats are ranked 11th, CCSU 14th, & Monmouth 18th.

Nova beats Delaware to finish 9-3 then what makes u guys think these other schools are more worthy?

The answer is nothing. None of the 3 are deserving, but it’s Nova before these 2. xpeacex

PS: almost beating a FBS means little to the committee. A win is great & a loss doesn’t hurt. Being close matters little. Delaware lost to Pitt 17-14. They are home for TDay. xpeacex
If Wofford is in the conversation Nova should be also. Those two teams' resumes are pretty much carbon copies of each other IMO.

[Bison56]

I hope the committee takes this thread into consideration in the discussion room.

They usually read through most of the threads here.

[crusader11]

lol...no

Not sure what’s funny, but yes.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The NEC or Big South this year is not getting a seed. Nice seasons by both teams, but they aren’t getting a seed. xpeacex


This here 100%

xnodx

[JayJ79]

even if one of them did get the 8 seed, they might not even make it to Fargo anyway. Though they do have the advantage of being in the northeast, so it is possible that it could be two lightweight teams in the first round pairing that feeds into that seed (while the tougher teams have to play each other in other parts of the country)

[caribbeanhen]

Monmouth more deserving than Central Conn St just for whipping Kennesaw State

Wofford is hitting a nice stride

Nova not going to beat a good team although not many at the FCS level....

[SUPharmacist]

Someone is going to get the 8 seed as a reward. You do not want the 8 seed; it's not a "reward".

Having to face NDSU in Fargo is a death sentence. I don't care how big your balls are...

As a fan of the "death sentence" I am not sure that my opinion counts, but I would think you always would want the seed.

The minimum bid getting you a home game, when if you get matched up against the wrong program in the 1st round you may lose a home game based on bids.

You can market that your team got a seed. No one will knock you if you lose in Fargo and if you do pull the upset you get all the glory. If you get an easier route and win some games you will still get funneled to one of the top programs eventually.

[Reign of Terrier]

If Wofford is in the conversation Nova should be also. Those two teams' resumes are pretty much carbon copies of each other IMO.Except Wofford has won 7 FCS games in a row and hasn't lost an FCS game since September.

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[Reign of Terrier]

I think Wofford is in the conversation but the problem is in picking up their best win of the year by far today they devalued their best win of the year because what does Furman have to fall back on now? The Paladins are legit on the bubble right now IMO. Their resume is pretty much set at 7-4 with a D2 game next week. That loss to The Citadel looks a lot worse than it did coming into the day now that El Cid is likely to finish 6-6. I guess their win against Chatty looks a bit better but Chatty isn't a playoff team either. Very little substance to Furman's playoff resume IMO.I think this is nuts. Furman is 7-2 against the FCS and has a couple 1 TD losses to FBS teams. They were in the committee's top 10, will remain in the top 20 of the coaches' poll and have only lost one game to a top 15 (or so) team.

We can't all be Illinois State or Montana State and fall up. It's absolutely bonkers that some posters think it's okay for a team in one conference to lose multiple games by 3 scores+ and get a seed while in another conference you can do the same and win your games by an average of 27 points and not get into the field at all.

I mean, the socon is not the NEC/Patriot/Pioneer and has both a history of multiple teams getting in and winning games. Come onnnnnn.

Just admit that your definition of quality win is "win against the MVFC/Big Sky." It's laughable how, in the course of a year how bias in favor of the first 3 conferences has bloated to the point where we seemingly think everyone outside of these teams suck. It's crazy!

Heck, I can point to 2017, when Furman was 7-3 against the FCS and had their best win against a 7-5 Western Carolina team that didn't make the field or finish ranked. This team has a better resume. This team is in the top 20. It's bonkers to say they aren't in.

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[Professor Chaos]

I think this is nuts. Furman is 7-2 against the FCS and has a couple 1 TD losses to FBS teams. They were in the committee's top 10, will remain in the top 20 of the coaches' poll and have only lost one game to a top 15 (or so) team.

We can't all be Illinois State or Montana State and fall up. It's absolutely bonkers that some posters think it's okay for a team in one conference to lose multiple games by 3 scores+ and get a seed while in another conference you can do the same and win your games by an average of 27 points and not get into the field at all.

I mean, the socon is not the NEC/Patriot/Pioneer and has both a history of multiple teams getting in and winning games. Come onnnnnn.

Just admit that your definition of quality win is "win against the MVFC/Big Sky." It's laughable how, in the course of a year how bias in favor of the first 3 conferences has bloated to the point where we seemingly think everyone outside of these teams suck. It's crazy!

Heck, I can point to 2017, when Furman was 7-3 against the FCS and had their best win against a 7-5 Western Carolina team that didn't make the field or finish ranked. This team has a better resume. This team is in the top 20. It's bonkers to say they aren't in.

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You keep acting like being in the top 20 of the Coach's poll means something. It doesn't. In 2017 McNeese was ranked 15th and EWU was ranked 17th in the Coach's poll and both were left out.

Neither Illinois St nor Montana St has lost to a team like The Citadel who is likely to finish 6-6. Both already have 8 D1 wins... something Furman can't achieve. Illinois St has a win over a top 8 SDSU team on the road for crying out loud. Furman's best win is Chattanooga. There's not even a comparison there. Call it bias if you want but you're showing plenty of it yourself with some of the ridiculous spin you're putting on these arguments.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The PL's playoff history is actually pretty good. It's 2 or 3 horrible lows that everyone remembers. And rightfully so. Colgate had been to the title game more recently than any current SoCon team. Definitely not saying the PL is anywhere near as good as the SoCon. Just the ceilings are similar. The PL is truly an an enigma.

[gofurman]

I really wish Furman wouldn't have dropped that game against Kennesaw... would've told us a lot about both teams. I hate it when teams schedule 2 FBS and a D2 out of conference... very little can be gleaned from that if the games go how they're supposed to (lose to the FBS and beat the D2). No sympathy from me for Furman if they get left out... they made the bed they're going to sleep in with their non-conference schedule.

But thee coaches DIDNT make that bed. Prior regime did. The TWO FBS yes. But our new coaches asked for Stetson or Gardner Webb or anyone and no FCS would take it. So we got POINT. Still w two FBS and a win a win over NAIA point we are 8-4. Take out two (very strong ) FBS losses and we are 8-2. Drop NAIA (who we wanted an FCS) and we are 7-2. Isnt Chatt worth more than Citadel now? That’s at least a decent win most would agree as Chatt BEAT citadel today nad took Woff to OT and led most all second half vs Woff. How is that not a quality win for Furman? We were the only SoCon team of Furman / Woff / Citadel to beat actually beat Chatt in regulation. Others either lost or went to OT

Furman made playoffs (and beat Elon in playoff) in 2017 at 7-4 w one FBS. So that’s 7-3 vs FCS. No strong wins.

This year we are 7-2 w TWO very good FBS showings (led both at half before depth issues ...including leading 14-3 on VTech at half) and a “good” win over Chatt on road. That’s objectively a little better than 2017 where we made the playoffs. Also we are ranked much higher this year even after today I bet we are in polls about 15 or so. :2017 we were about 23rd. They do look at Coaches poll,some. Comparing the two years I dint see Furman being left out at all.

[Professor Chaos]

But thee coaches DIDNT make that bed. Prior regime did. The TWO FBS yes. But our new coaches asked for Stetson or Gardner Webb or anyone and no FCS would take it. So we got POINT. Still w two FBS and a win a win over NAIA point we are 8-4. Take out two (very strong ) FBS losses and we are 8-2. Drop NAIA (who we wanted an FCS) and we are 7-2. Isnt Chatt worth more than Citadel now? That’s at least a decent win most would agree as Chatt BEAT citadel today nad took Woff to OT and led most all second half vs Woff. How is that not a quality win for Furman? We were the only SoCon team of Furman / Woff / Citadel to beat actually beat Chatt in regulation. Others either lost or went to OT

Furman made playoffs (and beat Elon in playoff) in 2017 at 7-4 w one FBS. So that’s 7-3 vs FCS. No strong wins.

This year we are 7-2 w TWO very good FBS showings (led both at half before depth issues ...including leading 14-3 on VTech at half) and a “good” win over Chatt on road. That’s objectively a little better than 2017 where we made the playoffs. Also we are ranked much higher this year even after today I bet we are in polls about 15 or so. :2017 we were about 23rd. They do look at Coaches poll,some. Comparing the two years I dint see Furman being left out at all.
You can't compare the two years though because these selections don't happen in a vacuum. I listed in the bubble thread there's 9 teams I think are locked into at-larges ahead of Furman and if Albany and Towson (along with SIU and UTM for that matter) win they're also ahead of Furman IMO. That leaves only 1-3 bids left. At that point Furman probably has as good of an argument as anyone so you could very well be right and they'll have a spot. I just think they'll be one of the last 4 in at best and it wouldn't shock me to see them get snubbed depending on how the rest of the bubble plays out.

[Gangtackle11]

I see most FCS pundits have Nova in already.

I hope they are right.

Nova wins it’s a no-brainer at 9-3 (5-3 in CAA), but what if the Dirty Filthy Birds pull off the unthinkable? Is Nova really a lock at 8-4 (4-4 in CAA) with OOC wins vs. Colgate, Lehigh, Bucknell, & LIU??

Not so sure as the pundits, but if they say so.....xpeacex

[Professor Chaos]

I see most FCS pundits have Nova in already.

I hope they are right.

Nova wins it’s a no-brainer at 9-3 (5-3 in CAA), but what if the Dirty Filthy Birds pull off the unthinkable? Is Nova really a lock at 8-4 (4-4 in CAA) with OOC wins vs. Colgate, Lehigh, Bucknell, & LIU??

Not so sure as the pundits, but if they say so.....xpeacex
Good point. I think as long as Towson wins Nova will be fine but they don't exactly have a stellar resume if they lose to Delaware. Maybe the committee even looks at Towson's superior CAA record and one less FCS loss and uses that to discount the head-to-head result??? If Towson loses Nova doesn't have a win over any other playoff team unless Maine comes all the way back from the dead.

[aceinthehole]

For the record, I never suggested CCSU was in the discussion for a seed. I think MUHAWKS was being a little unrealistic in his zeal to discuss Monmouth's chances at a seed. Neither team will get any serious consideration for a seed. Heading into the final week, here are your seeds:



North Dakota St.
James Madison
Montana
Weber St.
Sacramento St.
South Dakota St.
Northern Iowa
Illinois St.


I think the following teams all have a better chance for a seed than CCSU/MU: Montana St. (9-3), Villanova (9-3), Central Ark. (9-3), Wofford (8-3)

[WileECoyote06]

Man the heads on here are going to explode when CCSU gets a seed provided they win next week.

xdrunkyx

[aceinthehole]

Man the heads on here are going to explode when CCSU gets a seed provided they win next week.

xdrunkyx

Not going to happen.

In 2018 KSU (Big South) got the #4 seed at 10-1. They had a FBS loss, but beat #6 Jax St. in the final game of the season, and yes, the rest of the schedule was very weak. The difference was they were coming off a 2017 season when the reached the FCS quarterfinals and were ranked no lower than #7 for the entire 2018 season.

Colgate (Patriot) got the #8 seed in 2018. The Raiders were 9-1, only losing to Army, shutout 5 FCS opponents, and held 3 other opponents to less than 7 points. I don't care how "weak" that schedule was, they dominated all FCS opponents they faced and were ranked #9 heading into the playoffs.

Neither CCSU or Monmouth have that kind of resume coming into this season's playoffs.

[RootinFerDukes]

I'm assuming Marijuana is legal in the state you live in? You seem to be smoking the good stuff.

[MUHAWKS]

At this point, after 11 weeks, it is nearly impossible to objectively rank either team above the other. I'd look at it the two teams as follows:

Wins:
CCSU: NEC - Sacred Heart (7-4), Robert Morris (6-5) | Non-Conf - Fordham (3-6), Columbia (3-6)
MU: Big South - Kennesaw St. (9-2), Campbell (6-4) | Non-Conf - Albany (7-4), Lafayette (3-8)

Slight edge to MU based on win vs. likely playoff team Albany.

FCS Losses:
CCSU: none
MU: at Montana

Slight edge to CCSU for being undefeated, although MU doesn't have a bad loss

FBS Opponent:
CCSU: L, 29-34 at Eastern Michigan
MU: L, 13-48 at Western Michigan

Slight edge to CCSU, as they lost the game on the last play (blocked punt).

NCAA Stats:
CCSU: Top-10 in multiple stats categories, including total defense, turnovers, etc.
MU: ?

Playoff Results:
CCSU: L, 0-14 at New Hampshire (2017)
MU: L, 7-46 at Northern Iowa (2017)

Edge to CCSU, as they almost won that game without our starting QB who was suspended for game

---

CCSU 11-1 (7-0 NEC)
Monmouth 10-2 (8-0 Big South)

I'll let others post their thoughts, but I cannot see how Monmouth has done anything worthy of a seed other than a gaudy number of wins (which CCSU still has 1 more). Neither the Big South or the NEC are considered "power conferences" and I expect the 8 seeds are filled out by MVFC, Big South, and CAA teams. And if the field is really that weak this year, I think CCSU makes a slightly stronger case.

My prediction is CCSU faces Albany and Monmouth gets Towson (or Villanova) in the First Round.

Hey man- no beef or anything b/c I like CCSU, The NEC and I like you as well, but some of the stuff you are saying is just a huge reach. For example- MU's 2 blowout wins vs. at the time # 5 Kennesaw and Campbell who was getting votes PLUS our win against Albany does not give us a "slight edge" over CCSU in quality wins it is a clear cut BIG edge. There is not a sole on this board that would agree with it being only a slight edge for MU. Then going on to say that CCSU has an "edge" in the losses b/c CCSU does not have any FCS losses and we have Montana is also a reach b/c Montana HAS BEEN TOP 10 ALL YEAR while your OOC is not competitive.

Using a 2017 playoff result as a comparison to THIS YEAR shows how much you are reaching. First of all drawing UNH was a gift, it is not even the same universe as Northern Iowa but like I said it was 2 seasons ago?

Then you bring up team stats? Stats? AS a basis for who is better deserving of a possible bye? You do not really mean that do you? It is already established that MU has a tougher level of competition so it is comparing apples and oranges but with that said we are ranked over you in most if not all Offensive categories while you have the edge is most defensive categories but I do not think it is relevant anyway but even if it is there is no real clear cut edge. We are top 10 ina couple and top 15 in a couple more. We have the leading rusher in ALL of FCS and 2 Payton Award list guys to you one, but again its not relevant in my opinion.

Whatever- no big deal we will see what happens but we are ranked higher in every poll I have seen sans THIS ONE HERE yet nobody here even has agreed that CCSU would be deserving over MU.

And I disagree mightily with folks, I absolutely think one of us may indeed get the 8 seed. But at the end of the day just happy to be in this spot.

[aceinthehole]

MUHAWKS - I appreciate your enthusiasm and agree Monmouth has had a very good season, but you are way to high on the Hawks resume.

First, you are overplaying your quality wins. Campbell isn't a very good regardless of the votes/ranking they might have had. SFU, SHU, RMU, and DUQ all have higher Sargin/Massey ranking than the Camels. The Albany and KSU wins are better than anything on CCSU's resume, and in fact they are both rated similar to Central. Its a solid resume, but those 2 wins combined with a loss to Montana just do not warrant a Top-8 resume in the country and a seed in the playoffs.

Second, a football game is more than just a final score. As I pointed out about Colgate's 2018 resume, how well you play is a factor. While CCSU and the NEC doesn't get much love on this board or in the polls, Central Connecticut defense has been outstanding and our offense is very efficient. If you look under the hood you will see the Blue Devils are a very good team - much better than the ranking we have received to date.

FCS Statistical Rankings
#1 – Total Defense (274.1 YPG)
#1 – Rushing Defense (63.8 YPG)
CCSU has given up a FCS best 3 rushing TDs all season.
#1 – Passes Intercepted (18)
#2 – Defensive TDs (5)
#2 – Passes Had Intercepted (3)
#2 – Turnover Margin (+15)
#5 – Team Passing Efficiency (172.43)
#5 – Completion % (.668)
#7 – 3rd Down Conversion Defense (.314)
#7 – Red Zone Defense (.679)
#8 – Time of Possession (33 AVG)
#9 – Scoring Defense (19.10 AVG)

#3 - Passing Efficiency (172.8) - Aaron Winchester, QB - CCSU

If CCSU finishes the season 11-1, undefeated vs. FCS opponents, and a single play (blocked punt with 0:40 to go) from a 12-0 season and FBS win, then I'm very comfortable suggesting Central has a stronger resume than Monmouth, but still not worthy of a Playoff seed.

[MUHAWKS]

MUHAWKS - I appreciate your enthusiasm and agree Monmouth has had a very good season, but you are way to high on the Hawks resume.

First, you are overplaying your quality wins. Campbell isn't a very good regardless of the votes/ranking they might have had. SFU, SHU, RMU, and DUQ all have higher Sargin/Massey ranking than the Camels. The Albany and KSU wins are better than anything on CCSU's resume, and in fact they are both rated similar to Central. Its a solid resume, but those 2 wins combined with a loss to Montana just do not warrant a Top-8 resume in the country and a seed in the playoffs.

Second, a football game is more than just a final score. As I pointed out about Colgate's 2018 resume, how well you play is a factor. While CCSU and the NEC doesn't get much love on this board or in the polls, Central Connecticut defense has been outstanding and our offense is very efficient. If you look under the hood you will see the Blue Devils are a very good team - much better than the ranking we have received to date.

FCS Statistical Rankings
#1 – Total Defense (274.1 YPG)
#1 – Rushing Defense (63.8 YPG)
CCSU has given up a FCS best 3 rushing TDs all season.
#1 – Passes Intercepted (18)
#2 – Defensive TDs (5)
#2 – Passes Had Intercepted (3)
#2 – Turnover Margin (+15)
#5 – Team Passing Efficiency (172.43)
#5 – Completion % (.668)
#7 – 3rd Down Conversion Defense (.314)
#7 – Red Zone Defense (.679)
#8 – Time of Possession (33 AVG)
#9 – Scoring Defense (19.10 AVG)

#3 - Passing Efficiency (172.8) - Aaron Winchester, QB - CCSU

If CCSU finishes the season 11-1, undefeated vs. FCS opponents, and a single play (blocked punt with 0:40 to go) from a 12-0 season and FBS win, then I'm very comfortable suggesting Central has a stronger resume than Monmouth, but still not worthy of a Playoff seed.

That's fine, neither of us I am sure want to go back and forth for the next week about this haha, the only actual apples/apples we can compare is Wagner and I can say that was our worst played game of the ear BY FAR and the team stats were very close in terms of us and you.. we out gained them 352-191 while you outgained them 279-182- So both defenses did about the same body of work and in points allowed as well. You were able to score more points. Anyway, it is not far fetched that this one gets settled on the field in 2 weeks. I appreciate your passion as well and could not agree more that a football game is more than just a final score (although final score is really that truly matters).

That is why I do not pay attention to folks who still want to judge Monmouth b/c we only beat Wagner and Lafayette by 2-3 pts.. ***** happens. Same for you barely escaping Merrimack and Fordham and lackluster Margins over a bad Columbia team and average St Francis team who you and me both know is dangerous but to all these west and midwest guys assume they are like a high school team.

And that is why beating Kennesaw in embarrassing fashion matters. And that is why us scoring 47, 49, 45, 35, 49 and 45 in our last 6 games matters. And since you bring up "stats" look what our Offense did to Kennesaw defense who is ranked right by your side in all these nice defensive categories. I know you may think its "different" but we scored 45 against them, so stats didnt matter much in their "top 3 defense". I have been at or seen every game this year for us and I know 100% in 4 or 5 of these games we took our foot off the gas in terms of scoring while the other team kept going full gear. It is a tough situation when you have a classy coach Like we do in Kevin Callahan. For example- We easily could have scored 60-70 against presbyterian. We played our reserves and uber conservative for the last 1.5 quarters. Same for Gardner Webb and honestly Kennesaw a bit as well. The North Alabama game we were up 49-24 with one minute left. I sh8t you not.. and the final was 49-38. They kept trying to score, ran trick plays, kicked onsides. Really weird. I am not saying we let them do it but 3-4 of our games we legit stopped trying to score and this last week was another one. But I get it- All the more fire in the belly for our guys with something to prove.

[ming01]

Nova, SELA, or Wofford. Prolly Nova if they win next week

[ngineer]

I give the edge to Monmouth. Lafayette and Wagner have some decent athletes. Their weaknesses, like many, is depth. In fact LC's defense played fairly well this year, so having a 'close' win shouldn't be a demerit. Indeed most teams have 'off games' and still win. Can't blow everyone out. CCSU has had an impressive season, as well. Just see a bit better/tougher schedule for MU.