Southland AQ Scenarios

[Bear84]

The math needed to sort out all the possible Southland AQ scenarios right now is rather mind boggling.
Four teams (SHSU, UCA, SLU and Nicholls) are tied for first place at 5-2, and McNeese is one game back
at 4-3, with two games remaining. Only three teams can win out and tie for first, as SLU will play Nicholls
to finish the regular season.

However, if we make just one assumption, it distills down to a somewhat clearer picture. Most everyone
agrees that SHSU has the easiest path. Northwestern State is playing very good football right now, and can’t
be overlooked, but SHSU is playing the most consistent, solid defense in recent games.
Therefore, I’m going to assume that SHSU wins out.

First, the tie-breaker rules for the Southland that are relevant in this scenario.

6.03.02 Tie-Breaking Procedures. The following procedures shall be utilized to determine the automatic
bid recipient when NCAA Championship-eligible teams are tied for the top position.

6.03.02.01 Tie Between Two Teams. In case of a two-way tie for the championship, the team that
defeated the other team shall be the automatic bid recipient. If the two (2) teams did not play one another,
then the tied teams’ won-loss results against the next highest-positioned team(s) they both played shall be compared.
This shall be continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the NCAA
automatic bid. When comparing tied teams’ records against other teams in order above or below the tie in question,
all other teams not involved in the tie are eligible to be compared with. [5/14]

6.03.02.02 Tie Between Three or More Teams. If three (3) or more teams tie for the championship,
the same selection procedure as outlined in 6.03.02.01 shall be followed with the following exceptions:
(a) If three (3) or more teams are tied and if one (1) should have an advantage in head-to-head competition over
the other teams, that team shall be the automatic bid recipient;
(b) If three (3) or more teams are tied and if two (2) or more should have an advantage in head-to-head competition
over the other team, those teams with the advantage shall be evaluated using the two way or multiple tie-breaking
procedures and the other team eliminated; and/or
(c) If three (3) or more teams remain tied, and if the tied teams did not play each other, then the tied teams’
won-loss results against the next highest-positioned team(s) they each played shall be compared. This shall be
continued through the final standings until one (1) team gains the advantage, thus the NCAA automatic bid. When
comparing tied teams’ records against other teams below the tie in question, all other teams not involved in the tie are
eligible to be compared with. [5/14]

So, if I’m interpreting the rules correctly, then this is how I think it will sort out…

If SHSU wins out, then there are only two teams that can take the AQ from them, UCA and SLU.

If SHSU and only UCA win out, then UCA gets the AQ due to the head-to-head win.

If SHSU and only Nicholls win out, then SHSU gets the AQ due to H2H win.

If SHSU, SLU and UCA win out, then the Nicholls/McNeese game will likely determine the AQ.
If Nicholls wins and finishes as the highest common tie-breaker opponent, then SHSU gets the AQ.
SHSU beat Nicholls, UCA lost to Nicholls, and SLU will have beaten Nicholls. This leaves SHSU tied with SLU.
SHSU and SLU do not play each other, so the next common opponent is McNeese. SLU lost to McNeese and
SHSU beat McNeese, so SHSU gets the AQ.
If McNeese wins and finishes above Nicholls, then UCA gets the AQ. UCA and SHSU beat McNeese, but SLU
lost to McNeese. This eliminates SLU and UCA>SHSU due to H2H.

If SHSU, Nicholls and UCA win out, then UCA gets the AQ. There is no clear H2H. The first common opponent
that can break the tie appears to be ACU. Nicholls is eliminated because they lost to ACU, UCA and SHSU beat ACU,
then UCA>SHSU due to H2H.

If SHSU and only SLU win out, then the AQ will be determined by the order of finish between UCA and McNeese. There is
no H2H, so it goes to common opponent. Nicholls (will have) lost to both. If UCA finishes above McNeese, then
SLU gets the AQ as they beat UCA and SHSU lost to UCA. This appears to be the only scenario where SLU gets the AQ
with SHSU winning out. If McNeese finishes above UCA, then SHSU gets the AQ, as they beat McNeese and SLU lost to
McNeese. And finally, if UIW managed to finish above UCA and McNeese, then SHSU also gets the AQ, as they
beat UIW and SLU lost to UIW.

Hopefully, this should make it clear who to pull for or against (not that it will make any difference).

If SHSU loses one of their final games, then please disregard this post. :D

[Daytripper]

Well, now my brain hurts. It should be clearer after Saturday's games. I just wish you hadn't put the jinx on us by making the assumption that we will win out.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, I interpret this as saying Nicholls and SLU are probably the weakest link in terms of getting into the playoffs.

[Bear84]

So, I interpret this as saying Nicholls and SLU are probably the weakest link in terms of getting into the playoffs.

Maybe for Nicholls. If UCA loses at least one game and finish above McNeese, then SLU control their own destiny, regardless of whether SHSU wins out. Nicholls can only get the AQ by winning out and SHSU loses a game.

[Katfan]

Thanks for the post, I think! I’ll just wait and see. Wee need to win

[McNeese72]

McNeese fans would just love to win the last two games and finish 8-4 whether we make the playoffs or not. With our new coaching staff we have shown steady improvement in our play as the season as gone on despite our injuries. We are a lot better team than we were the first half of the season. We aren't there yet, but I think we are heading in the right direction with the new coaching staff. The only game that we were really out of this season was the Okla. St. game.

Doc

[Bear84]

Well, now my brain hurts. It should be clearer after Saturday's games. I just wish you hadn't put the jinx on us by making the assumption that we will win out.

I just realized I should not have jinxed you guys. If you lose Saturday, it will almost eliminate UCA's shot at the AQ. Since SLU and Nicholls have the H2H over UCA, UCA would have to win out, McNeese has to beat Nicholls and Nicholls has to beat SLU. Now my brain hurts.

Go Kats!

[Daytripper]

McNeese fans would just love to win the last two games and finish 8-4 whether we make the playoffs or not. With our new coaching staff we have shown steady improvement in our play as the season as gone on despite our injuries. We are a lot better team than we were the first half of the season. We aren't there yet, but I think we are heading in the right direction with the new coaching staff. The only game that we were really out of this season was the Okla. St. game.

Doc

Agree. You guys look to be set up for a real run at the conference title next year. I say the more good teams at the top of the Southland, the better.

[Daytripper]

I just realized I should not have jinxed you guys. If you lose Saturday, it will almost eliminate UCA's shot at the AQ. Since SLU and Nicholls have the H2H over UCA, UCA would have to win out, McNeese has to beat Nicholls and Nicholls has to beat SLU. Now my brain hurts.

Go Kats!

I really appreciate the work you put in to your analysis of the possibilities. Good job.

[katss07]

Thanks for taking the time to write this all up! Hopefully you didn’t jinx Sam. Go Kats!

[McNeese72]

Agree. You guys look to be set up for a real run at the conference title next year. I say the more good teams at the top of the Southland, the better.

I agree with that. And the more nonconference games and playoff games the Southland teams win, the better.

Doc

[Serpentor]

When was the last time the Southland has been such a jumble this late in the season?

[NOLA]

How bout this scenario for the final two weeks.


Sam splits
UCA splits
McNeese wins out
SELU beats ACU
NICH beats SLU


That would put all five at 6-3. Seems like a Southland way to wrap up this season.

[Daytripper]

How bout this scenario for the final two weeks.


Sam splits
UCA splits
McNeese wins out
SELU beats ACU
NICH beats SLU


That would put all five at 6-3. Seems like a Southland way to wrap up this season.

This result is not out of the realm of possibilities. If it happens though, it would likely mean the the Southland is a one bid conference this year.

[McNeese72]

This result is not out of the realm of possibilities. If it happens though, it would likely mean the the Southland is a one bid conference this year.

Just curious and don't have time to research it, but when was the last time the Southland got only 1 bid??

Doc

[Serpentor]

How bout this scenario for the final two weeks.


Sam splits
UCA splits
McNeese wins out
SELU beats ACU
NICH beats SLU


That would put all five at 6-3. Seems like a Southland way to wrap up this season.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmzuRXLzqKk

[katss07]

How bout this scenario for the final two weeks.


Sam splits
UCA splits
McNeese wins out
SELU beats ACU
NICH beats SLU


That would put all five at 6-3. Seems like a Southland way to wrap up this season.
How about no thank you! Sounds like a mess.xlolx

[Daytripper]

There used to be a link here on AGS that took you to every fcs playoff bracket from the past. I can't find it anymore.

[lionsrking2]

This result is not out of the realm of possibilities. If it happens though, it would likely mean the the Southland is a one bid conference this year.

I need to study it more but a five-way tie appears unbreakable using the next highest positioned team format. That would mean the team with the highest SRA standing would get the autobid (likely UCA). But I still think the league gets at least a second team in, and maybe a third. The SLC is a top five conference and I don't think the committee will penalize it because it's competitive.

[Bear84]

I need to study it more but a five-way tie appears unbreakable using the next highest positioned team format. That would mean the team with the highest SRA standing would get the autobid (likely UCA). But I still think the league gets at least a second team in, and maybe a third. The SLC is a top five conference and I don't think the committee will penalize it because it's competitive.

I won't go over the fine details unless things go this way Saturday, but the tie-breaker for a 5-way tie actually is easy to resolve due to 3 common opponents (ACU, NWSt and SFA) among the 5 tied teams. SLU @ 7-4 would get the AQ, having defeated all three common opponents. UCA could also have victories over all three, but lose the H2H with SLU. McNeese and UCA would both be 8-4, so I would be really surprised if both did not get at-large bids, giving the Southland 3 bids. SHSU and Nicholls @ 7-5 would be hosed.

[lionsrking2]

I won't go over the fine details unless things go this way Saturday, but the tie-breaker for a 5-way tie actually is easy to resolve due to 3 common opponents (ACU, NWSt and SFA) among the 5 tied teams. SLU @ 7-4 would get the AQ, having defeated all three common opponents. UCA could also have victories over all three, but lose the H2H with SLU. McNeese and UCA would both be 8-4, so I would be really surprised if both did not get at-large bids, giving the Southland 3 bids. SHSU and Nicholls @ 7-5 would be hosed.

That's not how it works to my understanding.

[Bear84]

That's not how it works to my understanding.

Because SHSU and SLU do not play, I don't think you can do any sort of head to head analysis, so only common opponents are used. Three teams (SHSU, Nicholls and McNeese) will have at least one loss to a common opponent, so as you go down the order of finish of the common opponents, all three will get eliminated. The only team(s) left standing will be SLU or SLU and UCA (depends on who beats UCA, SFA or UIW). If two teams are left, then it goes to head to head. At least that is how I *think* it works. There may be a situation where a head to head comparison resolves things, before you get all the way through the common opponents, but that would depend on the exact order of finish, so no way to really work that out at this time. I really would not want to see it come down to some computer ranking.

[lionsrking2]

Because SHSU and SLU do not play, I don't think you can do any sort of head to head analysis, so only common opponents are used. Three teams (SHSU, Nicholls and McNeese) will have at least one loss to a common opponent, so as you go down the order of finish of the common opponents, all three will get eliminated. The only team(s) left standing will be SLU or SLU and UCA (depends on who beats UCA, SFA or UIW). If two teams are left, then it goes to head to head. At least that is how I *think* it works. I really would not want to see it come down to some computer ranking.

If the tied teams all played each other, then head-to-head results among the teams are compared to break the ties. If the tied teams did not all play each other, then you compare results vs the next highest seeded team, not among the tied teams, that everyone played. If still tied, move on to the next highest seeded team. If ties can't be broken using that format, then the SRS formula is used. If still tied, goes to the team who has been absent from the playoffs the longest. If still tied, the Commissioner will pull the name from a drawing.

Now personally, the way you lay it out makes more sense, but sense isn't what we're talking about here, unfortunately.

[Bear84]

If the tied teams all played each other, then head-to-head results among the teams are compared to break the ties. If the tied teams did not all play each other, then you compare results vs the next highest seeded team, not among the tied teams, that everyone played. If still tied, move on to the next highest seeded team. If ties can't be broken using that format, then the SRS formula is used. If still tied, goes to the team who has been absent from the playoffs the longest. If still tied, the Commissioner will pull the name from a drawing.

Now personally, the way you lay it out makes more sense, but sense isn't what we're talking about here, unfortunately.

I agree with you that this is the format (I made an edit *disclaimer* before I saw your reply). The question is, as you compare the results against the highest ranked common opponents, will this create a situation where a head to head among the remaining tied teams eliminates a team before the next common opponent comparison? That could change things. As long as both SHSU and SLU are still involved, it should go to the next common opponent. If I try to think that through, my head will explode!

[lionsrking2]

I agree with you that this is the format (I made an edit *disclaimer* before I saw your reply). The question is, as you compare the results against the highest ranked common opponents, will this create a situation where a head to head among the remaining tied teams eliminates a team before the next common opponent comparison? That could change things. As long as both SHSU and SLU are still involved, it should go to the next common opponent. SHSU will have lost to two of the common opponents, so may get knocked out quickly, allowing a head to head to eliminate another team before considering the next ranked common opponent. If I try to think that through, my head will explode!

When you get to a common opponent that everyone has played, you compare the results. For example: If three teams are tied, and two of the three beat a common opponent, the team that did not beat the common opponent is eliminated. Then it goes back to head-to-head, two-way tiebreaker between the two remaining teams. It gets trickier when you have more than three tied teams. Now, the conference office may come out with a clarification that is different than how I understand it, but we haven't been down this road very often.

[Bear84]

I could see a situation where there are only two teams left before going through all the common opponents, and the last two teams standing are McNeese and SLU. In that case, McNeese would get the AQ! Now that would make some heads explode. :D

[McNeese75]

I could see a situation where there are only two teams left before going through all the common opponents, and the last two teams standing are McNeese and SLU. In that case, McNeese would get the AQ! Now that would make some heads explode. :D
:D

[Daytripper]

I could see a situation where there are only two teams left before going through all the common opponents, and the last two teams standing are McNeese and SLU. In that case, McNeese would get the AQ! Now that would make some heads explode. :D

I will say this: 2019 has been the most interesting, unpredictable, and entertaining Southland season I can remember.

[Bear84]

Looking at the potential final standings, in the event of a 5-way tie, the final order between ACU, NWST and SFA will determine which team is the first common opponent used for the tie-breaker. A different order could alter the outcome for the AQ, but only in a weird way. ACU is 4-4 and assuming they lose at SLU, they will finish 4-5. NW State is 2-5, but can win at SHSU and then beat SFA at home to tie ACU at 4-5. ACU and NW State don't play each other, so no head to head. The highest ranked common opponent would be all 5 teams tied for first place! I assume that is the case because of this part of the rules:

"When comparing tied teams’ records against other teams in order above or below the tie in question, all other teams not involved in the tie are eligible to be compared with."

Since the 5-way tie can only be broken by determining the order between ACU and NWST, and the order between ACU and NWST can only be determined by the order of the tied common opponents, the tie would be unbreakable, and the SRS would have to come into play. Therefore, the season finale between NWST and SFA could determine the Southland AQ. xrotatehx

If the paradoxical tie between ACU and NWST does not occur, then ACU will be the highest rated tie-breaker team among the three common opponents. If that happens, then SLU gets the AQ no matter what the order is between NWST and SFA. This is because both Nicholls and McNeese lost to ACU, but SHSU, UCA, and SLU beat ACU. Since SHSU and SLU did not play, no head to head can be done. SHSU will have lost to NWST, while the others won, so that would eliminate SHSU. If SFA is the next common opponent, then 4 of the 5 teams beat SFA, and UCA is TBD, but this would only lead to the same result, SLU gets the AQ.

Is this not the craziest ***** ever?

[FormerPokeCenter]

I move we change the name of the conference from The Southland Conference to The Craziest **** Ever Conference....

[Daytripper]

Looking at the potential final standings, in the event of a 5-way tie, the final order between ACU, NWST and SFA will determine which team is the first common opponent used for the tie-breaker. A different order could alter the outcome for the AQ, but only in a weird way. ACU is 4-4 and assuming they lose at SLU, they will finish 4-5. NW State is 2-5, but can win at SHSU and then beat SFA at home to tie ACU at 4-5. ACU and NW State don't play each other, so no head to head. The highest ranked common opponent would be all 5 teams tied for first place! I assume that is the case because of this part of the rules:

"When comparing tied teams’ records against other teams in order above or below the tie in question, all other teams not involved in the tie are eligible to be compared with."

Since the 5-way tie can only be broken by determining the order between ACU and NWST, and the order between ACU and NWST can only be determined by the order of the tied common opponents, the tie would be unbreakable, and the SRS would have to come into play. Therefore, the season finale between NWST and SFA could determine the Southland AQ. xrotatehx

If the paradoxical tie between ACU and NWST does not occur, then ACU will be the highest rated tie-breaker team among the three common opponents. If that happens, then SLU gets the AQ no matter what the order is between NWST and SFA. This is because both Nicholls and McNeese lost to ACU, but SHSU, UCA, and SLU beat ACU. Since SHSU and SLU did not play, no head to head can be done. SHSU will have lost to NWST, while the others won, so that would eliminate SHSU. If SFA is the next common opponent, then 4 of the 5 teams beat SFA, and UCA is TBD, but this would only lead to the same result, SLU gets the AQ.

Is this not the craziest ***** ever?

One takeaway from all of this madness is that it shows that the Southland is a much stronger conference, top to bottom, than in the past. Good OOC wins and showings and very competitive at the upper half of the conference. This year we got an FBS scalp (UCA over WKU, who beat Arkansas), and good FBS losses - HBU by 2 to UTEP, SHSU by 8 to New Mexico, SLU by 11 to Ole Miss. I hope we can continue to get better. The competition will better prepare us for playoff success.

[lionsrking2]

One takeaway from all of this madness is that it shows that the Southland is a much stronger conference, top to bottom, than in the past. Good OOC wins and showings and very competitive at the upper half of the conference. This year we got an FBS scalp (UCA over WKU, who beat Arkansas), and good FBS losses - HBU by 2 to UTEP, SHSU by 8 to New Mexico, SLU by 11 to Ole Miss. I hope we can continue to get better. The competition will better prepare us for playoff success.

Would also add that HBU beat the No. 6 team in the MVFC on the road. And in our 11 point loss to Ole Miss, we missed two extra points, Ole Miss returned a kickoff for a TD, and it was still a one score game late in the 4th quarter.

[BEAR]

Sam is done. Out. xeekx

[cx500d]

Way to go Sam Houston

[Daytripper]

I'm done with Keeler. That was a pathetic display in a must win game with everything on the line. Go up 21-7 in the first quarter, then get blown out by a 2 win team. If Keeler doesn't fire Carty as OC, then Keeler needs to be fired. Now that i think of it, fire both of them.

[katss07]

I’m giving Keeler another year. This team has been plagued with injuries. And Stewart’s suspension today didn’t help. Carty is the issue, he needs to go.

[Daytripper]

I’m giving Keeler another year. This team has been plagued with injuries. And Stewart’s suspension today didn’t help. Carty is the issue, he needs to go.

Who would have gotten Stewart the ball if he played? Would not have made a difference with Carty's play calling. Pathetic. Incompetent. Amateurish.

[BEAR]

UCA plays at UIW on Friday for a share of the title
Nicholls and SLU play each other on Thursday for a share of the conference title.

Im pretty sure UCA will is in.

Tough call on SLU and Nicholls. I'm leaning toward SLU being in too.

[Bear84]

Tough call on SLU and Nicholls. I'm leaning toward SLU being in too.

Either Nicholls or SLU will be in for sure, as the winner gets the automatic bid. Game is at SLU and if they win decisively, then Nicholls chances are not great. If Nicholls wins, I would think SLU would still likely get in, but could depend on how crowded the bubble is.