Conference Rankings

[BisonTru]

Conference Rankings





Average

AGS
Stats
Coaches
Massey
Sagarin
Massey Comp.


1
Missouri Valley
1.50

1
1
1
2
1
3


2
Big Sky
1.67

2
2
2
1
2
1


3
Colonial
3.17

3
4
4
3
3
2


4
Ivy
4.50

4
5
6
4
4
4


5
Southland
4.83

8
3
3
5
5
5


6T
Southern
6.50

6
7
7
6
6
7


6T
Big South
6.50

5
6
4
8
8
8


8
Ohio Valley
7.17

7
8
8
7
7
6


9
MEAC
9.50

10
8
8
10
12
9


10
Northeast
10.17

9
10
10
11
9
12


11
Patriot
10.50

11
11
11
9
10
11


12
SWAC
11.00

11
11
11
12
11
10


13
Pioneer
12.00

11
11
11
13
13
13




Reference: Massey Composite

I used the three human polls (AGS, Stats, Coaches) as well as three computer polls (Massey, Sagarin, and the Massey Composite).

[DFW HOYA]

Probably fair based on this year's results.

[Schism55]

Considering how putrid the Patriot is this season, quite an achievement for 2 conferences to be rated worse. Take a bow SWAC and Pioneer....

[Redbird 4th & short]

AGS seems too high on Southern and too hard on Southland. As Ive said before, Southern is just not having a good season. Southland depth seems to be building .. not dominant at top, but deeper and better than last year for sure.

MVFC and Big Sky are a toss up this season. We just don't have the depth of quality teams we usually have. Colonial a definite 3rd.

[Wildcat1997]

The Southland reminds me a lot of the FCS version of the Pac-12. It has a lot of depth and cannibalizes itself so it appears worse than it really is. And a lot like the Pac we're missing that one true national title contender.

[gofurman]

SoCon fan here I admit and the SoCon needs to do better. I admit that. I don't have a problem with most of the conference rankings. However, I don't see the SoCon and Big South as quite equal. Furman and Citadel BOTH beat Charleston Southern. Yet, Charleston Southern is a .500 Big South team. The team I watched from CSU would be a bottom feeder in the SoCon. Furman beat em' by 30+. Wofford beat Gardner Webb by FORTY. Maybe Monmouth and KSU are equal to Furman and Woff? Maybe though I would give the slight edge to the SoCon there too. The third place SoCon team - Citadel, beat Georgia Tech. Would Campbell (third place Big South) beat Georgia Tech? Yes, Mercer lost to Campbell.. by 7. Mercer also lost to Furman and Woff both by 30+.. the WORST Socon team (who is winless in the SoCon at 0-7!!) ETSU beat Austin Peay who is vying for top of the OVC. Would a winless Big South team beat the top of the OVC?

Trying to be objective. Perhaps this is more fair: a lower-tier SoCon team (Mercer) beat a lower-tier Big South team (PC) 45-7. 45-7... thats a crushing.

I just don't see how the Big South is quite on par with the SoCon top to bottom

[FormerPokeCenter]

The Southland reminds me a lot of the FCS version of the Pac-12. It has a lot of depth and cannibalizes itself so it appears worse than it really is. And a lot like the Pac we're missing that one true national title contender.

We're getting things turned around. We'll be back where we belong fairly soon...

[R.A.]

The Coaches Poll puts the MEAC one spot bellow the SoCon...but the Big South, himm...

[Professor Chaos]

The Southland reminds me a lot of the FCS version of the Pac-12. It has a lot of depth and cannibalizes itself so it appears worse than it really is. And a lot like the Pac we're missing that one true national title contender.
Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP Poll with a good chance to pass Georgia (currently #4) when they likely lose to LSU in the SEC title game. I'd say they're very much a national title contender this year.

I know I'm rooting for them (my Bison play them next September).

[Redbird 4th & short]

SoCon fan here I admit and the SoCon needs to do better. I admit that. I don't have a problem with most of the conference rankings. However, I don't see the SoCon and Big South as quite equal. Furman and Citadel BOTH beat Charleston Southern. Yet, Charleston Southern is a .500 Big South team. The team I watched from CSU would be a bottom feeder in the SoCon. Furman beat em' by 30+. Wofford beat Gardner Webb by FORTY. Maybe Monmouth and KSU are equal to Furman and Woff? Maybe though I would give the slight edge to the SoCon there too. The third place SoCon team - Citadel, beat Georgia Tech. Would Campbell (third place Big South) beat Georgia Tech? Yes, Mercer lost to Campbell.. by 7. Mercer also lost to Furman and Woff both by 30+.. the WORST Socon team (who is winless in the SoCon at 0-7!!) ETSU beat Austin Peay who is vying for top of the OVC. Would a winless Big South team beat the top of the OVC?

Trying to be objective. Perhaps this is more fair: a lower-tier SoCon team (Mercer) beat a lower-tier Big South team (PC) 45-7. 45-7... thats a crushing.

I just don't see how the Big South is quite on par with the SoCon top to bottom

Even in a down year, SoCon is much deeper than Big South ... not even close as far as depth. As for top 2 from each conference, that is a little close ... but IMO SoCons top 2 seem notably better than Big Souths top 2.

[Reign of Terrier]

SoCon fan here I admit and the SoCon needs to do better. I admit that. I don't have a problem with most of the conference rankings. However, I don't see the SoCon and Big South as quite equal. Furman and Citadel BOTH beat Charleston Southern. Yet, Charleston Southern is a .500 Big South team. The team I watched from CSU would be a bottom feeder in the SoCon. Furman beat em' by 30+. Wofford beat Gardner Webb by FORTY. Maybe Monmouth and KSU are equal to Furman and Woff? Maybe though I would give the slight edge to the SoCon there too. The third place SoCon team - Citadel, beat Georgia Tech. Would Campbell (third place Big South) beat Georgia Tech? Yes, Mercer lost to Campbell.. by 7. Mercer also lost to Furman and Woff both by 30+.. the WORST Socon team (who is winless in the SoCon at 0-7!!) ETSU beat Austin Peay who is vying for top of the OVC. Would a winless Big South team beat the top of the OVC?

Trying to be objective. Perhaps this is more fair: a lower-tier SoCon team (Mercer) beat a lower-tier Big South team (PC) 45-7. 45-7... thats a crushing.

I just don't see how the Big South is quite on par with the SoCon top to bottom


Even in a down year, SoCon is much deeper than Big South ... not even close as far as depth. As for top 2 from each conference, that is a little close ... but IMO SoCons top 2 seem notably better than Big Souths top 2.

The Big South is better than it was even last year. Campbell is in their first year of having full scholarships. Monmouth smashing Kennesaw has just as much to do with them trying to match Kennesaw the last few years and KSU being down. North Alabama will not be as bad as PC. Even though it doesn't look like it glancing at the stat sheet, Gardner Webb is a little better than last year.

I think the Big South will continue to improve, especially with Monmouth, Kennesaw, Campbell, and North Alabama. All of those programs are programs that *want* to be better and I think that will also benefit Gardner Webb, Hampton, and Charleston Southern (especially considering GW and CSU will play tough socon teams every year). Maybe in 5 years, it will be on par with the Socon and other conferences like the Southland and OVC and maybe even the CAA if the CAA continues to decline.


Having said that, the Big South is bad this year. The third place team almost lost to Davidson, who doesn't have scholarships, and barely beat Mercer (though to their credit, they controlled that game), who right now is no better than 7th in the Socon. That team, Campbell, also went to a bunch of overtimes against Gardner Webb, who trailed Wofford 49-3 in the fourth quarter. They also lost to North Alabama, who again will continue to grow in the coming years, but isn't good this year.

I think if Wofford and Kennesaw rematched, it wouldn't be pretty for the owls. Really, I like any of the top 4 in the socon to run the table in the Big South this year.



Oh and before we start comparing the Socon and the Southland, I have to remind everyone that, outside of Sam Houston, the Southland's playoff record is horrible in the last decade. They're 4-14 in the playoffs since 2010 outside of Sam Houston. On the top of my head, those wins were OVC Tennessee Tech, Illinois State (who I think was 6-6), San Diego, and Southland Sam Houston.

You could argue the Southland is a lot like the OVC in that they've had one good team at the top forever (SHSU/JSU) and the rest of the conference is finally making collective improvements. But the Southern and Big South each have more playoff wins outside of the top team in that period.

Really, the southern conference is one of those conferences that the best team will always be competitive, no matter who it is. The only time the autobid has gone one and done in the last 15+ years was when the Citadel played Wofford. And most of those autobids make it to at least the quarterfinals, and usually play a good game when they get there.

Even without App State/Georgia Southern/Wofford in the mix, the Southern the socon is 6-10 since 2010 (and that includes Samford's 0-3...they are our Youngstown State IMO). Heck, the Big South has had lots of teams win at least one playoff game in that time from Liberty, Stony Brook, Coastal, Charleston Southern, and Kennesaw. Their record is probably above .500 as well, taking out the top team.

I definitely see the argument that the Southland is getting better with all the relatively new teams coming in and finally getting settled, but we have to see more of that and some fruit (playoff wins) before I can agree that they're that much better.

[katss07]

We're getting things turned around. We'll be back where we belong fairly soon...
To win a title, you must win a playoff game first

[Redbird 4th & short]

i dont see Big South as being better this year .. KSU is clearly worse, Monmouth is a little better, Campbell is a little better but plays noone. Everyone else is about same.

Southern .. Furman is better this year for sure, all the other top teams are worse, except maybe Citadel is about same ... but they have lost to three 4-6 teams and barely beat a couple other weak teams. As a conference, their OOC record went from 13-16 to 11-18 .. just a 2 game difference ... but drops from falling a game or so short of .500 to a game or so closer to .350.

But still Southern is clearly stronger than Big South .. 3rd place Campbell would be lucky to finish 6th in Southern .. possibly worse as the season grind of playing decent teams took a toll. Ask YSU about the seaspon long grind .. they consistently come out fast and fade because of playing in MVFC. They just don't have the roster depth to deal with war of attrition ... 2016 being the obvious exception. But they usually play top 10 or 15 ball for first half of season, then fade due to injuries and just getting worn down .. lack of depth giong against so many good teams IMO.

[Reign of Terrier]

i dont see Big South as being better this year .. KSU is clearly worse, Monmouth is a little better, Campbell is a little better but plays noone. Everyone else is about same.

Southern .. Furman is better this year for sure, all the other top teams are worse, except maybe Citadel is about same ... but they have lost to three 4-6 teams and barely beat a couple other weak teams. As a conference, their OOC record went from 13-16 to 11-18 .. just a 2 game difference ... but drops from falling a game or so short of .500 to a game or so closer to .350.

But still Southern is clearly stronger than Big South .. 3rd place Campbell would be lucky to finish 6th in Southern .. possibly worse as the season grind of playing decent teams took a toll. Ask YSU about the seaspon long grind .. they consistently come out fast and fade because of playing in MVFC. They just don't have the roster depth to deal with war of attrition ... 2016 being the obvious exception. But they usually play top 10 or 15 ball for first half of season, then fade due to injuries and just getting worn down .. lack of depth giong against so many good teams IMO.


You're argument against the Big South getting better are...games this year. Look at the trendlines, the change over time, not the headlines. Kennesaw State beat Campbell last year 49-0 (Campbell either didn't have the full scholarship allotment or was in their first year with it) and then Campbell this year turns around and leads them for much of that game. Kennesaw State beat Monmouth 51-14 last year and then lost to them 45-21. Kennesaw State isn't as good as last year, but I have a hard time thinking that Monmouth is statically the same and Kennesaw is (looks at clipboard) 50 points worse than last year.

[FormerPokeCenter]

To win a title, you must win a playoff game first

True enough. It's no secret we've been in a slump recently. And, nobody's taking anything away from your recent run. 9 playoff appearances in 30 years is fairly impressive. Not as impressive as 16 in the same time frame, mind you, but it's not bad.

We'll get back to where we belong....Meanwhile, you're still just 12-26 in head to head competition....Correct that, and I'll be much more inclined listen to SHSU smack.

[caribbeanhen]

True enough. It's no secret we've been in a slump recently. And, nobody's taking anything away from your recent run. 9 playoff appearances in 30 years is fairly impressive. Not as impressive as 16 in the same time frame, mind you, but it's not bad.

We'll get back to where we belong....Meanwhile, you're still just 12-26 in head to head competition....Correct that, and I'll be much more inclined listen to SHSU smack.

actually it's ... Get back to where you once belonged..... Get Back Jojo.... as per the living legend....

[gofurman]

Even in a down year, SoCon is much deeper than Big South ... not even close as far as depth. As for top 2 from each conference, that is a little close ... but IMO SoCons top 2 seem notably better than Big Souths top 2.

Redbird, thanks! yep, that's all I was saying. I am not arguing this is a great yr in SoCon. It is not. But to compare the middle and bottom of the SoCon with the middle and bottom of Big South just doesn't feel right to me. As I said, Mercer is bottom half SoCon.. they beat PC 45-7. I try to be objective. CSU is .500 in Big South and I watched Furman kill them by 30 or so and they never really threatened Citadel. I think they would finish SoCon at less than .500

[ElCid]

Redbird, thanks! yep, that's all I was saying. I am not arguing this is a great yr in SoCon. It is not. But to compare the middle and bottom of the SoCon with the middle and bottom of Big South just doesn't feel right to me. As I said, Mercer is bottom half SoCon.. they beat PC 45-7. I try to be objective. CSU is .500 in Big South and I watched Furman kill them by 30 or so and they never really threatened Citadel. I think they would finish SoCon at less than .500

Don't forget we had our back up QB in as well the whole game. Backup is good, but not quite as good as Rainey. Obviously due to game time experience. Not an excuse, but simple fact. Also our losses to Samford and VMI probably wouldn't have happened with a healthy Rainey. He played but he was not himself yet. But injuries are part of the game. Got to overcome them some how. But right now I think only Monmouth and KSU would be in the SOCON race. Everyone else, not so much. There is a big gap between them and everyone else in the Big South.

[thebootfitter]

I used the three human polls (AGS, Stats, Coaches) as well as three computer polls (Massey, Sagarin, and the Massey Composite).
I've always understood the Massey Composite to simply be an average (maybe weighted somehow?) of several individual polls and rating systems. So not really a human poll nor a "computer poll." Rather just an average of a bunch of separate data points. I suppose you could argue that because it is a calculation, it represents a computer rating system in itself.

[ElCid]

I've always understood the Massey Composite to simply be an average (maybe weighted somehow?) of several individual polls and rating systems. So not really a human poll nor a "computer poll." Rather just an average of a bunch of separate data points. I suppose you could argue that because it is a calculation, it represents a computer rating system in itself.

Yup, plus, as I mentioned a lot, some of the computer polls used in that composite are whackadoodles and of dubious value.

[Reign of Terrier]

One detail about Massey computer rankings is that they don't reset every season. That's something I've learned in the last week when looking at their basketball rankings. Wofford was still ranked 30th (we aren't that good).


That's kind of a big deal, but others may not think so.

[Professor Chaos]

One detail about Massey computer rankings is that they don't reset every season. That's something I've learned in the last week when looking at their basketball rankings. Wofford was still ranked 30th (we aren't that good).


That's kind of a big deal, but others may not think so.
I believe how it works with Sagarin (not sure about Massey) is at the start of every season the rating from previous seasons is used and with each week the previous seasons' weight is less and less until the ratings become "well connected" at some point usually around weeks 5-7 and then it's only using the current season. I don't know for sure but I'd assume Massey uses something similar. Otherwise those early season ratings would really be a jumble from week to week.

[smilo]

Before we look at the same old computer rankings we always do which offer a plethora of confirmation bias, I just want to throw out two other highly respected ones. SP+ generally works extraordinarily well for FBS, but the intra-conference rankings make take time to develop for FCS.

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1194051195666620421

1. CAA (10.6)
2. MVFC (6.9)
3. Big Sky (6.7)
4. Ivy (6.6)
5. OVC (3.0)
6. Southland
7. Southern
8. SWAC
9. Patriot
10. Big South
11. MEAC
12. NEC
13. Pioneer

Obviously no one thinks the CAA is this good. The MEAC so low and the SWAC so high gives me pause. But a valid computer ranking nonetheless that is regularly proven accurate during the conference schedule - to be evaluated throughout playoffs.

Here's what Elo has to say (sourced from Warren Nolan):

1. MVFC (1397)
2. CAA (1381)
3. Ivy (1377)
Independents - inc. UND (1352)
4. Big Sky (1350)
5. Southern (1346)
6. Big South (1329)
7. OVC (1322)
8. Southland (1308)
9. MEAC (1297)
10. NEC (1293)
11. Pioneer (1281)
12. Patriot (1275)
13. SWAC (1262)

I tend to think the Big Sky is generally underrated by both.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm typically skeptical of computer rankings because of the sample + cross pollination problem.

At FBS, you have at least 3 non-conference games against fellow FBS opponents (many against 1-2 P5 opponents). At FCS, it's two tops, even so in 12 game years (lots of programs just schedule a tune up D2 or a second money game, so the benefits of the 12 game schedule aren't as apparent as you'd think). And of those two, if you're east of the Mississippi and not a high-attendance program like JSU/JMU, you're likely to play those games against teams geographically close to you. For these ADs, it's a matter of costs: teams west of the Mississippi fly to games all the time, teams east don't and so it's a bigger ask to schedule big OOC a lot of the time.

The result is minimal cross pollination. There's a reason why the Big Sky/MVFC challenge is a thing: they are closest to each other (or at least the MVFC is closer to the BS than anyone else). There's a reason why the CAA plays mainly Ivys/NEC/Patriot teams and the Southern plays Big South or in some cases OVC teams. It's closer and convenient and cheaper. The result is we get the same teams playing each other ever year, and with the continued regionalization of the playoffs, we only see the best of the best of each conference play each other.

For data collecting purposes, this limits the sample to a degree I'm not comfortable with trusting without criticism.

[Redbird 4th & short]

This makes so little sense in too many cases to be taken credibly.

[AmsterBison]

I'm not sure if NDSU is that good or the MVFC is that bad.

6 of 8 conference games completed.
Mean margin of victory in conference games: 27
Median margin of victory in conference games: 33
Biggest margin of victory in conference games: 39
Plus NDSU is leading in all the most important stats (#1 in total offense, total defense, scoring defense, scoring offense, pass efficiency, 3rd down conversion %)

[McNeese75]

Now the OVC is ranked ahead of the SLC? LOL. Interesting, since there were two head to head meetings between the SLC and the OVC that I can think of this year and the SLC won them both.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm not sure if NDSU is that good or the MVFC is that bad.

6 of 8 conference games completed.
Mean margin of victory in conference games: 27
Median margin of victory in conference games: 33
Biggest margin of victory in conference games: 39
Plus NDSU is leading in all the most important stats (#1 in total offense, total defense, scoring defense, scoring offense, pass efficiency, 3rd down conversion %)

It's like the last 2.5 years North Dakota State one day decided to do to the MVFC what it's been doing to the rest of the FCS in the playoffs, but during the regular season. I try to keep a few things in mind:

1) it's possible we're inflating the MVFC a tad because of their proximity to NDSU
2) it's possible that NDSU has just taken another step since they lost to SDSU in 2017
3) I think it's a combination of both, but mainly 2, because the MVFC is king until they get knocked off their throne and
4) The rest of the FCS is becoming somewhat meh after the top teams anyway. It may be happening to the MVFC, but those teams could still be similarly better than the FCS as they have been, even in their mehness.

Personally: I think the Big Sky historically has at least one team choke in the playoffs and I'm still not sold on Illinois State, so I think there's a good chance a team like SEMO, Austin Peay, Furman or Wofford (provided they get in the field) makes a plane trip and knocks one of these teams off and sort of reshuffles the deck. I also wouldn't be surprised if one of those Big Sky teams + aforementioned teams goes to Fargo and gives the Bison a better game than they're used to.

I'm not saying that last part will definitely happen or even likely happen, I just think the MVFC plays a certain style on offense and defense that is more similar to each other than the variation in FCS in general. Maybe the Bison are now optimized to stop it. Or they're just that much better. Or both.

[ElCid]

I believe how it works with Sagarin (not sure about Massey) is at the start of every season the rating from previous seasons is used and with each week the previous seasons' weight is less and less until the ratings become "well connected" at some point usually around weeks 5-7 and then it's only using the current season. I don't know for sure but I'd assume Massey uses something similar. Otherwise those early season ratings would really be a jumble from week to week.

Actually that is not true for Sagarin. I have the complete Div I final ratings from 2018 and they are not the same as the preseason for 2019, which I also have. For example the final rating and rank for The Citadel in 2018 was 48.34 and 160. For the 2019 preseason it was 42.42 and 183. How they came up with that is a mystery. NDSU 2018 final was 83.4 and 19. Preseason it was 78.06 and 35. I believe that they used a historical average from not just the preceding year, but from a number of prior years with each year back having less weight. Or something similar to that.

Likewise, Massey has some formula that is used which results in final and following season preseason #s to change. Again The Citadel, since I tracked it, was #50 FCS for 2018 final (I didn't track the rating). The 2019 preseason was #46 FCS.

From his website. I am sure Sagarin is pretty much the same. Basically it's a guess depending on the exact formula they use.


Preseason ratings are based on an extrapolation recent years' results, tuned to fit historical trends and regression to the mean. A team's future performance is expected to be consistent with the strength of the program, but sometimes there may be temporary spikes.


Other potentially significant indicators (ex. returning starters, coaching changes, and recruiting) are ignored. Therefore, preseason ratings should not be taken too seriously.

[smilo]

Actually that is not true for Sagarin. I have the complete Div I final ratings from 2018 and they are not the same as the preseason for 2019, which I also have. For example the final rating and rank for The Citadel in 2018 was 48.34 and 160. For the 2019 preseason it was 42.42 and 183. How they came up with that is a mystery. NDSU 2018 final was 83.4 and 19. Preseason it was 78.06 and 35. I believe that they used a historical average from not just the preceding year, but from a number of prior years with each year back having less weight. Or something similar to that.

Likewise, Massey has some formula that is used which results in final and following season preseason #s to change. Again The Citadel, since I tracked it, was #50 FCS for 2018 final (I didn't track the rating). The 2019 preseason was #46 FCS.

From his website. I am sure Sagarin is pretty much the same. Basically it's a guess depending on the exact formula they use.

Sounds a lot like how preseason polls are put together.

[Professor Chaos]

Actually that is not true for Sagarin. I have the complete Div I final ratings from 2018 and they are not the same as the preseason for 2019, which I also have. For example the final rating and rank for The Citadel in 2018 was 48.34 and 160. For the 2019 preseason it was 42.42 and 183. How they came up with that is a mystery. NDSU 2018 final was 83.4 and 19. Preseason it was 78.06 and 35. I believe that they used a historical average from not just the preceding year, but from a number of prior years with each year back having less weight. Or something similar to that.

Likewise, Massey has some formula that is used which results in final and following season preseason #s to change. Again The Citadel, since I tracked it, was #50 FCS for 2018 final (I didn't track the rating). The 2019 preseason was #46 FCS.

From his website. I am sure Sagarin is pretty much the same. Basically it's a guess depending on the exact formula they use.
Yeah, Sagarin doesn't just take the final ratings from the previous year and carry them over he takes the final ratings over the last few years and uses some weighted system to come up with an initial rating each year. Who knows what that formula looks like and even if I did it would probably just make my head hurt looking at it. Both Sagarin and Massey manage to do a pretty decent job of predicting outcomes accurately more than 75% of the time though (which is better than the majority of us would do) even from week 1.

[ming01]

1. CAA
2. MVC
3. Big Sky
4. Ivy
5. Southland
6. Southern
7. OVC
8. Big South
9. NEC
10. Patriot
11. MEAC
12. SWAC
13. PFL

[Christiank22]

1. CAA
2. MVC
3. Big Sky
4. Ivy
5. Southland
6. Southern
7. OVC
8. Big South
9. NEC
10. Patriot
11. MEAC
12. SWAC
13. PFL

MVFC > Big Sky > CAA and it’s not even close this year

[ming01]

MVFC > Big Sky > CAA and it’s not even close this year

The Valley is definitely down this year. Did not perform as well as they have recently head to head with Big Sky compared to past seasons. Missouri St, WIU, Indiana State are all pretty bad. You could argue the MVC as 3rd.

CAA has a lot of depth this season. Top to bottom they are the best.

[Lion1983]

I'm not going to argue how good or bad the Big South, SoCon or OVC is. Its irrelevant really, (let's argue to see who the best middle of the pack conference is...) and it dont mater between the MVFC, CAA or Big Sky, whoever does the best in the playoffs will show pretty accurately what conference is better.

Wa hat I will say, about the Big South, it does look to be trending up, hopefully it continues.

[Lion1983]

I will add that I will not look at the Ivy League when comparing conferences. Not until they change and join the playoffs.

[Reign of Terrier]

The Valley is definitely down this year. Did not perform as well as they have recently head to head with Big Sky compared to past seasons. Missouri St, WIU, Indiana State are all pretty bad. You could argue the MVC as 3rd.

CAA has a lot of depth this season. Top to bottom they are the best.


I'll say it once and I'll say it again: the CAA went 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs against non-CAA teams. This year, 22 of their 25 OOC games were against teams from conferences that either don't participate in the FCS playoffs (Ivy, MEAC) or are undermanned relative to the rest of the FCS (NEC, patriot, pioneer).

Maybe the CAA is deep and awesome outside of JMU. Maybe. But you can't really prove that when your signature wins were against the Citadel in the first two games of the year and everyone else is either a loss or forgettable.

The CAA is in do or die mode this year, and in the playoffs they're going to have to run the table in the first round against non-NEC/Patriot/Pioneer members to have me convinced they are at pre-2017 levels. I'm skeptical that will happen.


Also, no way in hell the Ivy league is the fourth best conference, I don't care how good Princeton and Dartmouth are.

[Professor Chaos]

The Valley is definitely down this year. Did not perform as well as they have recently head to head with Big Sky compared to past seasons. Missouri St, WIU, Indiana State are all pretty bad. You could argue the MVC as 3rd.

CAA has a lot of depth this season. Top to bottom they are the best.
The CAA has depth this year? If your argument is that #2 isn't much different #11 I can't argue that point. But is that because the #7-#11 teams are getting better or because the #2-#6 teams are getting worse.

Just because the bottom of the MVFC is down doesn't mean the whole MVFC is down. The conference is likely going to end up with 3 seeded teams and an outside chance of 4. If 3 or 4 MVFC make the quarterfinals that's a pretty solid year.

[lionsrking2]

I will add that I will not look at the Ivy League when comparing conferences. Not until they change and join the playoffs.

+1

[Sader87]

I think all the Ivy League players and coaches should be shot at dawn. :)

[lionsrking2]

I think all the Ivy League players and coaches should be shot at dawn. :)

Now, now ... that's not nice. xpeacex

[Reign of Terrier]

I will add that I will not look at the Ivy League when comparing conferences. Not until they change and join the playoffs.

I agree with this 1000%

By my count, there are 3 conferences that choose not to send an automatic bid to the FCS playoffs: The Ivys, the SWAC and the MEAC. Of these, the MEAC is the only one that will send their second place team, if given the opportunity.

To the credit of the Ivys, they will play some FCS teams technically outside of their region (Mercer, Richmond, etc.). But for the most part, they seem to play teams that are undermanned relative to the rest of the FCS in patriot league, NEC, and maybe pioneer schools. Quite frankly, we have no way of knowing how good these Ivy teams are, until they play an unequivocally good team.

The same goes for the SWAC and MEAC. For the most part, these schools have more of an institutional interest in playing other HBCUs. There's nothing wrong with that. They mostly play each other and some D2 opponents. On occasion, they will play local FCS teams (Wofford/Furman for SC State) and when they beat good ones, they have my respect. But really, the MEAC is the only league that does that nowadays. They're the only ones that *want* to play in the playoffs if they have a good team that doesn't make the Celebration bowl.

So, I'm open to ranking MEAC teams, but in my book SWAC teams and Ivy teams aren't FCS teams, even if they are classified as such.

[uni88]

Oregon is #6 in the latest CFP Poll with a good chance to pass Georgia (currently #4) when they likely lose to LSU in the SEC title game. I'd say they're very much a national title contender this year.

I know I'm rooting for them (my Bison play them next September).

Plus Utah is #7 and if the season plays to form they will meet in the conference championship game and the winner is definitely a contender.

I've said this before but the Bison should be happy they have them next year and not this year. These aren't Chip Kelly's Ducks. They have a veteran OLine and an excellent defense combined with a probable 1st round QB. Cristobal is building them like an SEC team more than a typical PAC12 team. Next years matchup will be more of a strength vs strength but the Ducks won't have as much experience as this year so they'll probably be a little more vulnerable.

[FormerPokeCenter]

Several of the SWAC teams play other FCS teams. Southern, Grambling, Alcorn, Prairie View and Texas Southern often play SLC teams. This year, both Southern and Alcorn played McNeese...

[Reign of Terrier]

Several of the SWAC teams play other FCS teams. Southern, Grambling, Alcorn, Prairie View and Texas Southern often play SLC teams. This year, both Southern and Alcorn played McNeese...

Which is fine, but when was the last time they beat one of the better SLC teams?

And when was the last time the second place SWAC team went to the playoffs (if I'm not mistaken, they play their championship game the same weekend as the first or second round).

My lack of the inclusion of the SWAC is two-prong: lack of quality wins (see question one) and lack of interest on their part (see question two). Between the Ivy/SWAC/MEAC, only the MEAC answers question two with yes, so they're worth paying attention to.

[Sader87]

Can we please stop with who is truly FCS or not?

We are all "Charlie in the Boxes" playing at the misfit-level of D1 football. :)

[Reign of Terrier]

Can we please stop with who is truly FCS or not?

We are all "Charlie in the Boxes" playing at the misfit-level of D1 football. :)

They (the Ivy's and SWAC) don't want us to pay attention to them, so we shouldn't. They exclude themselves. I'm just obliging.

[Professor]

I agree with this 1000%

By my count, there are 3 conferences that choose not to send an automatic bid to the FCS playoffs: The Ivys, the SWAC and the MEAC. Of these, the MEAC is the only one that will send their second place team, if given the opportunity.

To the credit of the Ivys, they will play some FCS teams technically outside of their region (Mercer, Richmond, etc.). But for the most part, they seem to play teams that are undermanned relative to the rest of the FCS in patriot league, NEC, and maybe pioneer schools. Quite frankly, we have no way of knowing how good these Ivy teams are, until they play an unequivocally good team.

The same goes for the SWAC and MEAC. For the most part, these schools have more of an institutional interest in playing other HBCUs. There's nothing wrong with that. They mostly play each other and some D2 opponents. On occasion, they will play local FCS teams (Wofford/Furman for SC State) and when they beat good ones, they have my respect. But really, the MEAC is the only league that does that nowadays. They're the only ones that *want* to play in the playoffs if they have a good team that doesn't make the Celebration bowl.

So, I'm open to ranking MEAC teams, but in my book SWAC teams and Ivy teams aren't FCS teams, even if they are classified as such.


That isn't true. It's several SWAC teams that would take an at-large if they were eligible. The main issue is that you have Alabama State Homecoming on Thanksgiving , Bayou the sat after thanksgiving ,and the SWAC title game.

Usually the teams that are eligible are involved in 1 or more of the above contests

Playoff Available SWAC teams

Alabama A&M
Alcorn State
Prairie View A&M
UAPB
TX Southern
Jackson State
Mississippi Valley

[FormerPokeCenter]

Southern has some wins over Northwestern in the 90s if memory serves me correctly, but of those, only one came against a Demon playoff team in 99. The rest were against 4-7 and 5-6 NSU teams with Southern being Heritage Bowl participants those years, which sorta speaks to your point. But, still. A Southern Heritage Bowl team beat a Demon playoff team that one year...

[Reign of Terrier]

That isn't true. It's several SWAC teams that would take an at-large if they were eligible. The main issue is that you have Alabama State Homecoming on Thanksgiving , Bayou the sat after thanksgiving ,and the SWAC title game.

Usually the teams that are eligible are involved in 1 or more of the above contests

Playoff Available SWAC teams

Alabama A&M
Alcorn State
Prairie View A&M
UAPB
TX Southern
Jackson State
Mississippi Valley

You just affirmed what I said: they aren't interested. If they were, they'd change things up. They don't and so they won't make the FCS playoffs, so why should I pay attention to them?

To be clear: I'm not saying "they are not FCS and therefore they are inferior" I'm just saying "they have as many scholarships as FCS teams, but lack the interest to play in the playoffs, so why give them the same level of attention in the polls, etc"

It's kind of like when you rank high school teams and you rank the 4A team above the 5A team (or something like that). These teams will never play each other and not get in the way of them achieving their respective goals, so why even compare them?

[Professor]

They (the Ivy's and SWAC) don't want us to pay attention to them, so we shouldn't. They exclude themselves. I'm just obliging.

Because they don't play in the playoffs doesn't mean they should be excluded or want to do. They do what's best for their institutions.

[Professor Chaos]

Plus Utah is #7 and if the season plays to form they will meet in the conference championship game and the winner is definitely a contender.

I've said this before but the Bison should be happy they have them next year and not this year. These aren't Chip Kelly's Ducks. They have a veteran OLine and an excellent defense combined with a probable 1st round QB. Cristobal is building them like an SEC team more than a typical PAC12 team. Next years matchup will be more of a strength vs strength but the Ducks won't have as much experience as this year so they'll probably be a little more vulnerable.
I'll take any FBS game any year for my Bison with as few and far between as they are getting. But you're right that I won't mind it being against an Oregon team that will be losing a top 5 draft pick at QB and slew of other talent to graduation and early entry to the NFL draft that will likely have a preseason ranking next year bolstered by all that departed talent.

[FormerPokeCenter]

For what it's worth, I think the HBCU's should go ahead and go FBS. I mean, come on, they're foregoing the playoffs in favor of Bowl Alliances. I think it would better serve their mission statements to be in the higher classification, and thus offer more scholarships.

Title IX might be a bitch, though....

[Sader87]

They (the Ivy's and SWAC) don't want us to pay attention to them, so we shouldn't. They exclude themselves. I'm just obliging.

You're saying this as if every school playing at the FCS-level should play in the play-offs.

We play at this level (less $$$, less emphasis etc) for a reason...I have no trouble with them not wanting to participate in the playoffs.....which have become more and more ridiculous with the dominance of NDSU ovah the last decade.

[uni88]

I'll take any FBS game any year for my Bison with as few and far between as they are getting. But you're right that I won't mind it being against an Oregon team that will be losing a top 5 draft pick at QB and slew of other talent to graduation and early entry to the NFL draft that will likely have a preseason ranking next year bolstered by all that departed talent.

Are you coming out for the game? I'm thinking about trying to score a ticket. I should probably put it on my calendar to make sure there are no conflicts.

[Reign of Terrier]

Because they don't play in the playoffs doesn't mean they should be excluded or want to do. They do what's best for their institutions.

I mean, it depends on what you mean by "included"

Because, they have other commitments, they don't want to be included in the playoffs. That's what's best for their institutions. And that's fine! But that is, in essence, excluding yourself.

[Reign of Terrier]

You're saying this as if every school playing at the FCS-level should play in the play-offs.

We play at this level (less $$$, less emphasis etc) for a reason...I have no trouble with them not wanting to participate in the playoffs.....which have become more and more ridiculous with the dominance of NDSU ovah the last decade.

I mean, it's the Football Championship Subdivision. If you don't play in the Championship by choice, I don't see any harm in not being included in polls in stuff. You play at the level that fits your institutional interests, that's fine (Wofford picked FCS instead of D2 because D2 was a wasteland of academic standards), but when evaluating the subdivision for playoff consideration and "who has the best conference" it's unhelpful to include conferences that hardly intermingle or beat decent programs and then rank them higher because they have two good teams that beat everyone in their conference and a couple forgettable OOC games.

[Professor Chaos]

Are you coming out for the game? I'm thinking about trying to score a ticket. I should probably put it on my calendar to make sure there are no conflicts.
I'm planning on it. Still need to get tickets figured out but I have a few leads there. I also need to figure out how to get there (train would take forever and flights would be expensive either with two connections or a single connection with a few hundred miles round trip in a rental car) and figure out where to stay. I'm banking that it'll work itself out over the offseason, haha.

FWIW, I've seen chatter on the Oregon boards that they don't even think it'll sell out (which it will with all the NDSU fans willing to make the trip if tickets are available) but hopefully that means tickets won't be to tough for those willing to look.

[Professor]

I mean, it depends on what you mean by "included"

Because, they have other commitments, they don't want to be included in the playoffs. That's what's best for their institutions. And that's fine! But that is, in essence, excluding yourself.

Looks like making money to me but hey, if you like breaking even and losing to NDSU every year .... Be my guest

[uni88]

I'm planning on it. Still need to get tickets figured out but I have a few leads there. I also need to figure out how to get there (train would take forever and flights would be expensive either with two connections or a single connection with a few hundred miles round trip in a rental car) and figure out where to stay. I'm banking that it'll work itself out over the offseason, haha.

FWIW, I've seen chatter on the Oregon boards that they don't even think it'll sell out (which it will with all the NDSU fans willing to make the trip if tickets are available) but hopefully that means tickets won't be to tough for those willing to look.

I'm guessing some Oregon season ticket holders will overlook this game and be willing to sell. I'm going to try and snag a ticket before they hit the secondary market.

[ming01]

I'll say it once and I'll say it again: the CAA went 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs against non-CAA teams. This year, 22 of their 25 OOC games were against teams from conferences that either don't participate in the FCS playoffs (Ivy, MEAC) or are undermanned relative to the rest of the FCS (NEC, patriot, pioneer).

Maybe the CAA is deep and awesome outside of JMU. Maybe. But you can't really prove that when your signature wins were against the Citadel in the first two games of the year and everyone else is either a loss or forgettable.

The CAA is in do or die mode this year, and in the playoffs they're going to have to run the table in the first round against non-NEC/Patriot/Pioneer members to have me convinced they are at pre-2017 levels. I'm skeptical that will happen.


Also, no way in hell the Ivy league is the fourth best conference, I don't care how good Princeton and Dartmouth are.

At the same time, your argument is about last year. I hope the CFB Playoff doesnt leave out LSU based off how they did last year. haha.

[ElCid]

Yeah, Sagarin doesn't just take the final ratings from the previous year and carry them over he takes the final ratings over the last few years and uses some weighted system to come up with an initial rating each year. Who knows what that formula looks like and even if I did it would probably just make my head hurt looking at it. Both Sagarin and Massey manage to do a pretty decent job of predicting outcomes accurately more than 75% of the time though (which is better than the majority of us would do) even from week 1.


Actually I have been beating Massey. #3 in the pick'em baby!xlolx

[Derby City Duke]

I'm planning on it. Still need to get tickets figured out but I have a few leads there. I also need to figure out how to get there (train would take forever and flights would be expensive either with two connections or a single connection with a few hundred miles round trip in a rental car) and figure out where to stay. I'm banking that it'll work itself out over the offseason, haha.

FWIW, I've seen chatter on the Oregon boards that they don't even think it'll sell out (which it will with all the NDSU fans willing to make the trip if tickets are available) but hopefully that means tickets won't be to tough for those willing to look.


Train should just be 1 overnight from Fargo on the Empire Builder out of Chicago. We went to Portland 2 summers ago. Single train from Chicago to Spokane (middle of the 2nd night); they split the train -- half to Portland, half to Seattle. The morning ride from Spokane to Portland goes right down the Columbia River Gorge; absolutely beautiful ride. Arrives Portland around 7 a.m.

[Reign of Terrier]

At the same time, your argument is about last year. I hope the CFB Playoff doesnt leave out LSU based off how they did last year. haha.

Good argument except I present to you:


...every time Alabama has made the playoff/BCS championship without winning the SEC.


Last year matters for them too.

[UNHWildcat18]

CAA is definitely down this year. I have no issue with a 3rd place ranking. I think teams 2-9 all have bits and pieces that could compete with anyone in the country, making us "deep" but only JMU has the whole package, they just keep winning regardless of how well or bad they play.

[Lion1983]

You're saying this as if every school playing at the FCS-level should play in the play-offs.

We play at this level (less $$$, less emphasis etc) for a reason...I have no trouble with them not wanting to participate in the playoffs.....which have become more and more ridiculous with the dominance of NDSU ovah the last decade.

Build a program to beat the likes of NDSU, JMU and so on, and maybe we wont be having this conversation. I know, I know, its easier said than done. I'm just sayin. It's not NDSUs fault that whomever else doesn't want to put in what it takes to be competitive on a national level.

[FUBeAR]

Actually I have been beating Massey. #3 in the pick'em baby!xlolx


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4usE2RePqo

[SUPharmacist]

For what it's worth, I think the HBCU's should go ahead and go FBS. I mean, come on, they're foregoing the playoffs in favor of Bowl Alliances. I think it would better serve their mission statements to be in the higher classification, and thus offer more scholarships.

I don't know that FBS is the answer especially since some still have traditional games against lower level HBCUs. But I have no issue with them deciding their historic rivalries and bowl setup is more valuable to them than the FCS playoffs.

At the same time I cannot fault individuals that decide it is not worthwhile to rank teams from conferences that have decided the playoffs will not be a positive for them.

Since we do not have HBCUs in my neck of the woods (to my knowledge) and they do not participate in the playoffs for the most part, I do not follow them very closely, but isn't there a separate poll ranking HBCUs? Another question for HBCU fans, do your schools/fanbases care about national FCS rankings, or is it just how you compare with your rivals that matters? What I have seen of some of these Classics and bowls you have looks like a blast, and if I find myself in one of those towns at the right time I would love to go check it out.