Week 11 Bracketology

[Professor Chaos]

Here's College Sports Madness projection (which also projects remaining games): https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Here's NoBowls.com projection which is done as if the playoffs started next week: http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png




Here's my take if the playoffs started next week (I have no idea how to sort out the SLC auto so just gave it to UCA for now even though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't win the tie breaker right now).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Southeastern Louisiana
SOCON (2): Furman, Wofford
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Independent (1): North Dakota
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lafayette

Last 4 in: Southeastern Louisiana, New Hampshire, Villanova, Wofford
First 4 out: Nicholls, Kennesaw St, Towson, South Carolina St/North Carolina A&T (whichever one isn't in the Celebration Bowl)



Central Connecticut St at New Hampshire @ #1 North Dakota St
Wofford at North Dakota @ #8 South Dakota St
Lafayette at Furman @ #5 Montana
Southeast Missouri St at Central Arkansas @ #4 Sacramento State
San Diego at Montana St @ #3 Weber St
Southeastern Louisiana at Sam Houston St @ #6 Northern Iowa
Austin Peay at Southern Illinois @ #7 Illinois St
Monmouth at Villanova @ #2 James Madison

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm not convinced the citadel is off the bubble if and until they lose their last two.

In any other year (and even a 12 game year) I would agree that a 7-5 socon team doesn't deserve to get in, especially with how the current conference looks. But that power five win complicates things.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[mainejeff]

Here's College Sports Madness projection (which also projects remaining games): https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Here's NoBowls.com projection which is done as if the playoffs started next week: http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png




Here's my take if the playoffs started next week (I have no idea how to sort out the SLC auto so just gave it to UCA for now even though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't win the tie breaker right now).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Southeastern Louisiana
SOCON (2): Furman, Wofford
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Independent (1): North Dakota
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lafayette

Last 4 in: Southeastern Louisiana, New Hampshire, Villanova, Wofford
First 4 out: Nicholls, Kennesaw St, Towson, South Carolina St/North Carolina A&T (whichever one isn't in the Celebration Bowl)



Central Connecticut St at New Hampshire @ #1 North Dakota St
Wofford at North Dakota @ #8 South Dakota St
Villanova at Furman @ #5 Montana
Southeast Missouri St at Central Arkansas @ #4 Sacramento State
San Diego at Montana St @ #3 Weber St
Southeastern Louisiana at Sam Houston St @ #6 Northern Iowa
Austin Peay at Southern Illinois @ #7 Illinois St
Lafayette at Monmouth @ #2 James Madison

I don't see how anyone can put UNH in the playoffs at this point unless they are projecting them to defeat Albany & Maine. They are 5-4 right now with "bad" losses to Holy Cross & Delaware. They do have 1 "signature" win over a somewhat fading Villanova. Either way.....Albany/UNH is an elimination from the bubble game.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't see how anyone can put UNH in the playoffs at this point unless they are projecting them to defeat Albany & Maine. They are 5-4 right now with "bad" losses to Holy Cross & Delaware. They do have 1 "signature" win over a somewhat fading Villanova. Either way.....Albany/UNH is an elimination from the bubble game.
Yeah, UNH is limping badly. I agree that the loser of that game between them and Albany can start making Thanksgiving plans. The CAA could still play themselves up to 4 bids or down to 2 bids IMO.

[caribbeanhen]

Here's College Sports Madness projection (which also projects remaining games): https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Here's NoBowls.com projection which is done as if the playoffs started next week: http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png




Here's my take if the playoffs started next week (I have no idea how to sort out the SLC auto so just gave it to UCA for now even though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't win the tie breaker right now).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Southeastern Louisiana
SOCON (2): Furman, Wofford
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Independent (1): North Dakota
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lafayette

Last 4 in: Southeastern Louisiana, New Hampshire, Villanova, Wofford
First 4 out: Nicholls, Kennesaw St, Towson, South Carolina St/North Carolina A&T (whichever one isn't in the Celebration Bowl)



Central Connecticut St at New Hampshire @ #1 North Dakota St
Wofford at North Dakota @ #8 South Dakota St
Villanova at Furman @ #5 Montana
Southeast Missouri St at Central Arkansas @ #4 Sacramento State
San Diego at Montana St @ #3 Weber St
Southeastern Louisiana at Sam Houston St @ #6 Northern Iowa
Austin Peay at Southern Illinois @ #7 Illinois St
Lafayette at Monmouth @ #2 James Madison

The Lil Darlings will never be left out

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Here's College Sports Madness projection (which also projects remaining games): https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Here's NoBowls.com projection which is done as if the playoffs started next week: http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week11.png




Here's my take if the playoffs started next week (I have no idea how to sort out the SLC auto so just gave it to UCA for now even though I'm pretty sure they wouldn't win the tie breaker right now).

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, South Dakota St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Southeastern Louisiana
SOCON (2): Furman, Wofford
OVC (2): Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
Big South (1): Monmouth
Independent (1): North Dakota
NEC (1): Central Connecticut State
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Lafayette

Last 4 in: Southeastern Louisiana, New Hampshire, Villanova, Wofford
First 4 out: Nicholls, Kennesaw St, Towson, South Carolina St/North Carolina A&T (whichever one isn't in the Celebration Bowl)



Central Connecticut St at New Hampshire @ #1 North Dakota St
Wofford at North Dakota @ #8 South Dakota St
Villanova at Furman @ #5 Montana
Southeast Missouri St at Central Arkansas @ #4 Sacramento State
San Diego at Montana St @ #3 Weber St
Southeastern Louisiana at Sam Houston St @ #6 Northern Iowa
Austin Peay at Southern Illinois @ #7 Illinois St
Lafayette at Monmouth @ #2 James Madison

Monmouth and Lafayette played in the regular season. Not saying they can't play again in the playoffs. I just think it would be easily avoided.

I'm not sure of Monmouth can put in a good enough bid to host given how small their stadium is.

[Professor Chaos]

Monmouth and Lafayette played in the regular season. Not saying they can't play again in the playoffs. I just think it would be easily avoided.

I'm not sure of Monmouth can put in a good enough bid to host given how small their stadium is.
Yeah, good call. They're supposed to avoid regular season OOC rematches in the first round unless it adds a flight. In this scenario Monmouth could match up with Nova and Lafayette can be sent elsewhere without adding a flight. I'll update it.

[JayJ79]

Monmouth and Lafayette played in the regular season. Not saying they can't play again in the playoffs. I just think it would be easily avoided.

I'm not sure of Monmouth can put in a good enough bid to host given how small their stadium is.
according to the criteria, a non-conference rematch is only avoided if it doesn't add another "flight".
and supposedly, the committee would do the pairings first, and then compare what the two schools in the pairing bid for the first round, awarding the home game to the school that bid higher than the other. Lafayette has averaged a couple thousand more in attendance than Monmouth so far this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they would have bid more.

[maine612]

I don't see how anyone can put UNH in the playoffs at this point unless they are projecting them to defeat Albany & Maine. They are 5-4 right now with "bad" losses to Holy Cross & Delaware. They do have 1 "signature" win over a somewhat fading Villanova. Either way.....Albany/UNH is an elimination from the bubble game.


Agree. Albany/UNH is an elimination game. If UNH wins (and Maine beats Rhody), then Maine/UNH is another one. Should be a great last couple of weeks!

612

[Baron Sardonicus]

North Dakota has four losses. They are out.

[Professor Chaos]

North Dakota has four losses. They are out.
Why? There are going to he plenty of at-large teams with 4 losses this year. Might even be a couple with 5.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yeah, UNH is limping badly. I agree that the loser of that game between them and Albany can start making Thanksgiving plans. The CAA could still play themselves up to 4 bids or down to 2 bids IMO.
Keep an eye on Towson .. they should be ahead of UNH already, and have 2 slightly easier games than UNH left.

Interesting though that this poll has just 3 CAA teams, and 2 of 3 are on their bubble.

[Reign of Terrier]

Why? There are going to he plenty of at-large teams with 4 losses this year. Might even be a couple with 5.Eh, their signature win are against Sam Houston State (final positioning in Southland tbh) and Montana State, who could easily finish 7-5.

Historically, either conference standing or quality wins have bailed out 7-4ish teams but it's possible they have neither. Yes, their schedule is hard and they have some quality losses but it's unclear right now.

I have them on the bubble as I have no idea how the committee will treat them (that Idaho State loss is probably worse than any other bubble team loss).

I'd have to see the rest of the field before making a final judgment.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

Keep an eye on Towson .. they should be ahead of UNH already, and have 2 slightly easier games than UNH left.

Interesting though that this poll has just 3 CAA teams, and 2 of 3 are on their bubble.
I just don't see much impressive in the CAA outside of JMU. Might just be the depth of the conference 2 through 11 shows there's a lot of good teams roughly equal with each other or a lot of average teams roughly equal to each other. In any case they're playing each other out of the playoffs for the most part. I've been stubborn about keeping UNH above Nova in the CAA pecking order to the detriment of Nova's playoff positioning even though I think all Nova will really need to do is beat LIU next Saturday to lock themselves in. I think #2 in the CAA pecking order, when it comes to playoffs, will be the winner of the UNH/Albany game this Saturday. Towson has two winnable games to get to 8-4 and they'll need them both to get in IMO.


Eh, their signature win are against Sam Houston State (final positioning in Southland tbh) and Montana State, who could easily finish 7-5.

Historically, either conference standing or quality wins have bailed out 7-4ish teams but it's possible they have neither. Yes, their schedule is hard and they have some quality losses but it's unclear right now.

I have them on the bubble as I have no idea how the committee will treat them (that Idaho State loss is probably worse than any other bubble team loss).

I'd have to see the rest of the field before making a final judgment.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
I'm higher on SHSU that most people apparently are which is why I'm probably higher on UND because I think UND has three nice wins right now with SHSU, UC Davis, and Montana St. However, either UC Davis or Montana St is likely to get devalued quite a bit when one of them loses to the other this week but SHSU should win out to finish 8-4 which will serve UND well when it comes to differentiating themselves from other teams on the bubble (like SHSU).

To be clear my projection is where I see the playoff picture right now, I'm not projecting what I think will happen the last two weeks with my picks.

[mainejeff]

I think #2 in the CAA pecking order, when it comes to playoffs, will be the winner of the UNH/Albany game this Saturday.

I got into it last season with you because of your lack off respect for Maine.....here we go again. I do acknowledge that this season Maine currently has no business sniffing the playoffs UNLESS they win their final 2 games....which includes UNH. So are you saying that if UNH beats Albany this weekend they get in over Maine even if Maine beats URI this weekend and then beats UNH in 2 weeks? (Maine would be 7-5, 5-3 & UNH would be 6-5, 5-3).

Oh yeah....Maine just beat Albany on the road too.xthumbsupx

[Professor Chaos]

I got into it last season with you because of your lack off respect for Maine.....here we go again. I do acknowledge that this season Maine currently has no business sniffing the playoffs UNLESS they win their final 2 games....which includes UNH. So are you saying that if UNH beats Albany this weekend they get in over Maine even if Maine beats URI this weekend and then beats UNH in 2 weeks? (Maine would be 7-5, 5-3 & UNH would be 6-5, 5-3).

Oh yeah....Maine just beat Albany on the road too.xthumbsupx
UNH is done if they lose again whether that's to Albany or Maine. Maine would certainly be in a better spot in that scenario than UNH would be but I think Maine will need quite a bit of help to get in at 7-5. For starters they'd probably need Albany to win out because that's their only chance for a win over a playoff team. When 5 loss teams have made the field in the past they've had some serious quality wins to stack up to offset those 5 losses. Maine isn't going to have that this year but there's always a chance the bubble could implode in which case all bets are off.

This is all my opinion of course, I'm not on the committee and their opinions are the ones that matter.

[Reign of Terrier]

Only 5-loss teams I think will get serious consideration: citadel (if they lose 5), southern Illinois, UC Davis if they win out, and Montana State (bc of the SEMO win)

Everyone else is sorta dreaming. The committee has only given one 7-5 team a bid when the season is 12 games long and that was to Indiana State team that had two top 10 wins.

Maybe it's my bias, but I think the citadel would have the best case with a win against Furman and Georgia Tech

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Only 5-loss teams I think will get serious consideration: citadel (if they lose 5), southern Illinois, UC Davis if they win out, and Montana State (bc of the SEMO win)

Everyone else is sorta dreaming. The committee has only given one 7-5 team a bid when the season is 12 games long and that was to Indiana State team that had two top 10 wins.

Maybe it's my bias, but I think the citadel would have the best case with a win against Furman and Georgia Tech

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk


Agree.

[Redbird 4th & short]

UNH is done if they lose again whether that's to Albany or Maine. Maine would certainly be in a better spot in that scenario than UNH would be but I think Maine will need quite a bit of help to get in at 7-5. For starters they'd probably need Albany to win out because that's their only chance for a win over a playoff team. When 5 loss teams have made the field in the past they've had some serious quality wins to stack up to offset those 5 losses. Maine isn't going to have that this year but there's always a chance the bubble could implode in which case all bets are off.

This is all my opinion of course, I'm not on the committee and their opinions are the ones that matter.

Done ???

Marty ! Marty ! Marty !

[Professor Chaos]

Done ???

Marty ! Marty ! Marty !
Sooner or later the committee members are just going to say "Fine Marty... go ahead and post those nude pics of us all over social media... we're not doing it!" :D

[Redbird 4th & short]

Only 5-loss teams I think will get serious consideration: citadel (if they lose 5), southern Illinois, UC Davis if they win out, and Montana State (bc of the SEMO win)

Everyone else is sorta dreaming. The committee has only given one 7-5 team a bid when the season is 12 games long and that was to Indiana State team that had two top 10 wins.

Maybe it's my bias, but I think the citadel would have the best case with a win against Furman and Georgia Tech

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
again, Citadel has 3 FCS losses to 4-6 teams, and barely beat 2 other 4-6 teams and 2-7 team ... that's 3 weak FCS losses and several weak wins, plus 1 good win. And they play in a what can best be described as a mediocre conference.

[Reign of Terrier]

again, Citadel has 3 FCS losses to 4-6 teams, and barely beat 2 other 4-6 teams and 2-7 team ... that's 3 weak FCS losses and several weak wins, plus 1 good win. And they play in a what can best be described as a mediocre conference.

But they would have finished their season winning 5 of 6 games. Can't overlook that either.

Let's be real, incarnate word and Lamar getting in last year proved that it's all made up and the rules don't matter when you look at the bubble.

[mainejeff]

Only 5-loss teams I think will get serious consideration: citadel (if they lose 5), southern Illinois, UC Davis if they win out, and Montana State (bc of the SEMO win)

Everyone else is sorta dreaming. The committee has only given one 7-5 team a bid when the season is 12 games long and that was to Indiana State team that had two top 10 wins.

Maybe it's my bias, but I think the citadel would have the best case with a win against Furman and Georgia Tech

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

So Maine is #17 in Massey & #17 in Sagarin yet they wouldn't get serious consideration at 7-5?

[mainejeff]

But they would have finished their season winning 5 of 6 games. Can't overlook that either.

Let's be real, incarnate word and Lamar getting in last year proved that it's all made up and the rules don't matter when you look at the bubble.

Maine would finish with 5 straight wins in the CAA.

[ming01]

My Bracket based off how I think season will end:

Central Conn St at UNH
vs. 1. NDSU

SIU at Furman
vs 8. Illinois State

SELA at SHSU
vs 4. Sacramento State

SE Missouri St at Central Arkansas
vs 5 Northern Iowa

San Diego at SDSU
vs 3. Weber State

Monmouth at Holy Cross
vs 6. Villanova

Citadel at Montana St
vs 7. Montana

Towson at Wofford
vs 2 James Madison

[caribbeanhen]

My Bracket based off how I think season will end:

Central Conn St at UNH
vs. 1. NDSU

SIU at Furman
vs 8. Illinois State

SELA at SHSU
vs 4. Sacramento State

SE Missouri St at Central Arkansas
vs 5 Northern Iowa

San Diego at SDSU
vs 3. Weber State

Monmouth at Holy Cross
vs 6. Villanova

Citadel at Montana St
vs 7. Montana

Towson at Wofford
vs 2 James Madison

The Citadel at Montana State would be a very interesting game

[Reign of Terrier]

Maine would finish with 5 straight wins in the CAA.With no big wins

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

So Maine is #17 in Massey & #17 in Sagarin yet they wouldn't get serious consideration at 7-5?No one cares about Massey or Sagarin outside of the internet.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[F'N Hawks]

My Bracket based off how I think season will end:

Central Conn St at UNH
vs. 1. NDSU

SIU at Furman
vs 8. Illinois State

SELA at SHSU
vs 4. Sacramento State

SE Missouri St at Central Arkansas
vs 5 Northern Iowa

San Diego at SDSU
vs 3. Weber State

Monmouth at Holy Cross
vs 6. Villanova

Citadel at Montana St
vs 7. Montana

Towson at Wofford
vs 2 James Madison

You must be thinking UND is going to lose one of their next two. Because SHSU isn't getting in ahead of UND.

Based on history you may be on to something cause all UND had to do was beat NAU last year and they were in......yah.

[Nodak78]

My Bracket based off how I think season will end:

Central Conn St at UNH
vs. 1. NDSU

SIU at Furman
vs 8. Illinois State

SELA at SHSU
vs 4. Sacramento State

SE Missouri St at Central Arkansas
vs 5 Northern Iowa

San Diego at SDSU
vs 3. Weber State

Monmouth at Holy Cross
vs 6. Villanova

Citadel at Montana St
vs 7. Montana

Towson at Wofford
vs 2 James Madison

Southern doesn't get 3 in 2 at best. Wofford hasn't beaten anyone with a winning record.

[Bison56]

With no big wins

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

How dare you disrespect the great Maine football team.xmadx

[PaladinFan]

How dare you disrespect the great Maine football team.xmadx

I looked this up and forgot what I found, but I think Maine has somehow managed to dodge James Madison each of the last two seasons.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I looked this up and forgot what I found, but I think Maine has somehow managed to dodge James Madison each of the last two seasons.


........HUH?​.........................BRAWK???

[ming01]

You must be thinking UND is going to lose one of their next two. Because SHSU isn't getting in ahead of UND.

Based on history you may be on to something cause all UND had to do was beat NAU last year and they were in......yah.

No I have UND at 7-4.

[PaladinFan]

........HUH?​.........................BRAWK???

I just went and looked it up again.

Maine hasn't had JMU on the schedule in either 2019 or 2018.

So, when talking about Maine getting into the post season, they've gone two years without playing the best team in their own conference.

[maine612]

Maine can't control their own conference schedule. People want it both ways on here...... Maine scheduled two FBS teams, and two out of conference teams that were at the top of their leagues last year (Sacred Heart, Colgate). They only had 5 home games this year (and last year they had 4!) I'm not sure that picking on the Maine schedule has much merit. Villanova, on the other hand, is doing their best to join the Patriot league (but they sure stepped up with that Long Island game). If Maine wins out, they would have had a great second half of the season and would merit a playoff spot in my opinion.

612

[Nodak78]

No I have UND at 7-4.

If you have UND at 7-4 with wins over SHSU and Montana ST. How do you have them in before UND and 2 SoCon. Wofford hasn't beat anyone with a winning record.

[Hambone]

No I have UND at 7-4.

So SHSU's 7-4 is better than UND's 7-4?

[PaladinFan]

Maine can't control their own conference schedule. People want it both ways on here...... Maine scheduled two FBS teams, and two out of conference teams that were at the top of their leagues last year (Sacred Heart, Colgate). They only had 5 home games this year (and last year they had 4!) I'm not sure that picking on the Maine schedule has much merit. Villanova, on the other hand, is doing their best to join the Patriot league (but they sure stepped up with that Long Island game). If Maine wins out, they would have had a great second half of the season and would merit a playoff spot in my opinion.

612

Teams can't control their conference schedule. I'm not sure how you fix that quirk about the CAA scheduling.

Folks can criticize the SoCon, but there's something to be said for 8 conference games and you play everyone - 4 home, 4 road. There's no way to miss the league's best team (much less in consecutive seasons)

[Anthony215]

Monmouth will probably have to travel south to Villanova for the first round of the playoffs which would be a very competitive game, that's if Villanova can beat Long Island and win their rivarly game with Delaware. 9-3 regular season should get the Wildcats a home first round game.

[Professor Chaos]

Monmouth will probably have to travel south to Villanova for the first round of the playoffs which would be a very competitive game, that's if Villanova can beat Long Island and win their rivarly game with Delaware. 9-3 regular season should get the Wildcats a home first round game.
All Nova really has to do is beat LIU. 8-4 in the CAA is good enough to get any team in IMO.

And hosting first round games depends completely on bids so Nova has just as good of a chance to host a first round game at 8-4 as they would at 9-3. It all depends on who they're matched up against and how much that school bid for a home first round game. I wouldn't guess either Nova or Monmouth will bid too high but Nova probably bids the higher of those two.

[maine612]

Teams can't control their conference schedule. I'm not sure how you fix that quirk about the CAA scheduling.

Folks can criticize the SoCon, but there's something to be said for 8 conference games and you play everyone - 4 home, 4 road. There's no way to miss the league's best team (much less in consecutive seasons)

Did everyone play everyone when Georgia Southern and Appalachian State were in the league? Frankly, I don't remember. The round robin definitely does put a stamp on who's best.

612

[maine612]

It's also worth noting that James Madison has avoided Maine for two years as well. Wouldn't have been an easy one last year for the Dukes....and playing in Orono this year wouldn't have been a cakewalk either.

612

[Reign of Terrier]

If you have UND at 7-4 with wins over SHSU and Montana ST. How do you have them in before UND and 2 SoCon. Wofford hasn't beat anyone with a winning record.Now that you mention it, UND should get in before Sam Houston with both at 7-4 in the FCS.

If Wofford makes the playoffs we will have beaten at least 2 teams .500 or better, but possibly 3. As I've said in other threads, the team that has played the most teams with winning records is central Arkansas at like 8. The winning record criteria favors conferences that are super competitive with a decent OOC schedule, so the Southland and CAA will get the most points out of it and so I don't think that's a sound criteria.

Either way, a 7-4 Wofford will not have a loss so bad as a 35 point loss to Idaho State. Even a 21-14 loss to Samford isn't that bad.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Did everyone play everyone when Georgia Southern and Appalachian State were in the league? Frankly, I don't remember. The round robin definitely does put a stamp on who's best.

612

Yes. The SOCON has been at 9, or less, teams for a long time. Mercer, ETSU, and VMI, were not around. Plus Elon was here. I think 9 teams is the best number for a conf for 8 conf games. Or two divisions of 6, with 5 games, in division, and 3, alternating, from the other division. No team would ever go more than every other year playing any conf team.

[SCPALADIN]

Did everyone play everyone when Georgia Southern and Appalachian State were in the league? Frankly, I don't remember. The round robin definitely does put a stamp on who's best.

612

Yes

[maine612]

Yes. The SOCON has been at 9, or less, teams for a long time. Mercer, ETSU, and VMI, were not around. Plus Elon was here. I think 9 teams is the best number for a conf for 8 conf games. Or two divisions of 6, with 5 games, in division, and 3, alternating, from the other division. No team would ever go more than every other year playing any conf team.

Thanks El Cid... forgot about Elon. That old school SoCon was one tough league back in the day.

612

[Nodak78]

Now that you mention it, UND should get in before Sam Houston with both at 7-4 in the FCS.

If Wofford makes the playoffs we will have beaten at least 2 teams .500 or better, but possibly 3. As I've said in other threads, the team that has played the most teams with winning records is central Arkansas at like 8. The winning record criteria favors conferences that are super competitive with a decent OOC schedule, so the Southland and CAA will get the most points out of it and so I don't think that's a sound criteria.

Either way, a 7-4 Wofford will not have a loss so bad as a 35 point loss to Idaho State. Even a 21-14 loss to Samford isn't that bad.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

If we win out. we could have wins over at least one and possibly 3 playoff teams. maybe wins over 5 wins over teams with winning records. and 2 losses to top 5 teams.
Wofford record would not match up.

[WrenFGun]

Yeah, UNH is limping badly. I agree that the loser of that game between them and Albany can start making Thanksgiving plans. The CAA could still play themselves up to 4 bids or down to 2 bids IMO.

I think it's fairly simple; the loser of Albany/New Hampshire is eliminated. If New Hampshire wins, Maine/UNH is for a playoff spot in all likelihood assuming Maine takes care of business against Rhode Island. Interestingly if Albany knocks off NH next week (they ought to be favored to do so) then Maine may be the odds on favorite to get in if they beat UNH since they beat Albany. I think people are sleeping on Maine. Three of their losses are to FBS/transitional. The Richmond loss looks fine, too.

That said, the safest third team to project in right now from the CAA is Towson. They should finish 8-4.

[PaladinNation]

Thanks El Cid... forgot about Elon. That old school SoCon was one tough league back in the day.

612

Heck, go back further and you'd throw in Marsha…
you just sparked my memory that the Dins had to play GSU at GSU twice in 2001 beating them in the semis.
Another oddity Furman had to play at Marshall twice in 1988 beating Marsha in the quarter-finals.

[Professor Chaos]

I think it's fairly simple; the loser of Albany/New Hampshire is eliminated. If New Hampshire wins, Maine/UNH is for a playoff spot in all likelihood assuming Maine takes care of business against Rhode Island. Interestingly if Albany knocks off NH next week (they ought to be favored to do so) then Maine may be the odds on favorite to get in if they beat UNH since they beat Albany. I think people are sleeping on Maine. Three of their losses are to FBS/transitional. The Richmond loss looks fine, too.

That said, the safest third team to project in right now from the CAA is Towson. They should finish 8-4.
I'm not on the same page as you with Maine. They've lost to FBS Georgia Southern and Liberty and they've taken 3 CAA losses so not sure where you're getting 3 FBS/transitional losses. I think even at 7-5 they're very sketchy. They won't be hurt directly by those 2 FBS losses but they could be hurt indirectly because they'll have one less win than 8-4 teams like potentially Albany (who I know they beat head-to-head) and Towson. Bottom line is Maine needs a lot help to get in at 7-5 IMO.

[reeder]

I think it's fairly simple; the loser of Albany/New Hampshire is eliminated. If New Hampshire wins, Maine/UNH is for a playoff spot in all likelihood assuming Maine takes care of business against Rhode Island. Interestingly if Albany knocks off NH next week (they ought to be favored to do so) then Maine may be the odds on favorite to get in if they beat UNH since they beat Albany. I think people are sleeping on Maine. Three of their losses are to FBS/transitional. The Richmond loss looks fine, too.

That said, the safest third team to project in right now from the CAA is Towson. They should finish 8-4..

Just curious - why so much love for Towson? Their best win is probably Maine and they lost to Albany.

[AggieManiac704]

Would anyone see South Carolina State getting in should they win out?

North Carolina A&T & Bethune-Cookman are OUT in my opinion following their losses to 1-win schools this past weekend.

[WrenFGun]

Just a bit on the CAA; I think Villanova still needs to be careful if they finish 8-4 and lose to UD to close the season. There's no good wins there [Richmond, I guess?] and it's going to be pretty bad down the stretch. They're probably fine, though.

I think at this point the four teams in contention for spots in the CAA [either spot 3 or spot 3 and 4] are Towson, UNH, Albany and Maine. One of UNH/Albany will be eliminated next weekend, and if they're not, one of Maine/UNH will be eliminated the following weekend. I actually think Towson is a very sure bet to make the playoffs, though; if we're giving Villanova credit at 8-4, shouldn't we give Towson credit too? I think if you just go by odds, UNH should lose to Albany (Away) and Beat Maine (Home). That would leave Albany as needing to win @SBU in the finale to secure a bid. Obviously if UNH beats Albany, then I think it's a play-in game. I think four are going to get in from the CAA unless Towson loses a stunner in the final two (@WM, home against Elon) or Albany BEATS UNH and then loses to SBU.

--

For reference, I think some other teams to keep an eye on:

BSC: Sac state probably saved their season with a win over NAU late. A loss there and again in closing would've been serious trouble. I think the Big Sky is a four bid conference, but keep an eye on Montana State. Road at UC Davis and then rivalry game. They could be in trouble.
In the MVFC, you may have to start scratching your head if SD State loses to Northern Iowa. That puts them at 7-4 with a win over SIU, and probably a must win game against South Dakota, who just routed YSU, to make the playoffs [they'd close 1-4 if they lose that game].
The OVC officially looks like a two bid league.

--

I think something's gotta give here, though. Here's the teams I still have in the playoff hunt (*=Lock)

Weber State*
Montana*
Sacramento State (1W and in)
Montana State (1W and in)
UC Davis (Win out and Bubble)
Monmouth*
James Madison*
Villanova*
Towson (Should finish 8-4, beat Citadel, Maine)
New Hampshire (Would finish 7-4, wins over Maine, Albany, Villanova)
Maine (Would finish 7-5, wins over UNH, Albany, 5 game win streak to close)
Albany (Would finish 8-4, wins over UNH, Towson)
North Dakota (Would finish 7-4, good wins over Montana State, UC Davis and Sam Houston, could be a problem for Montana State if they finish at 8-4, definite problem if they finish at 7-5)
North Dakota State*
Northern Iowa*
South Dakota State (1W and in, host UNI and on road against SD in rivalry game)
SIU (in with a win over WIU next week; 7-5, but FBS win, maybe a little bit more vulnerable than I thought with loss to SEMO on resume and no other significant wins outside of UMass)
Illinois State (in with one win in final two after knocking off SDSU, also own win over SIU)
CCSU/Robert Morris*
Austin Peay (1 win in final 2 gives them the conference title)
SEMO (they look good; nice win on road against SIU non-conference, hot coming in, could be an issue if they're up against Montana State or North Dakota in a comparison, so probably want to win out)
Patriot League (everyone sucks)*
San Diego*
Furman* (IMO if the committee has them at 9, they're in, win or loss to Wofford)
Wofford (I think they need to beat the Citadel, Furman almost doesn't matter. If they beat Furman and lose to the Citadel, I think they may be on the outside looking in even though I'd choose them over Furman).
Citadel (Beat Wofford, they're in over them IMO)
Sam Houston (5-4 with bad loss to Lamar, beat Nicholls; win out and bubble because of loss to ND who's also potentially bubble)
UCA* (Still fine; those Austin Peay and FBS wins really hold up, took care of most of southland)
SELA (Suddenly look pretty good; 7-4 with a win over Nicholls might be good enough)
Nicholls (can get to 8-4 and presumably knock out SELA, win over UCA looks good, but then lost 17-0 to Sam Houston in a head scratcher).
McNeese (Can knock Nicholls out of the conversation IMO with a win next week and catapult themselves in).

To me that's 31 teams competing for 24 spots; I don't really think Kennesaw State is in the realistic conversation but you might. Now if we work through it, one of Maine/UNH is guaranteed to be eliminated; one of McNeese/Nicholls is guaranteed to be eliminated. That brings you down to 29 teams. UC Davis is an extreme longshot and would almost certainly take the spot of one of the two playoff teams they beat down the stretch, which probably brings you to 28 teams for a 24 team field. I don't see a ton of room for budging off of that. I doubt the Southland is getting 4 teams in, so that probably brings you down to 27. I don't think the SoCon is getting 3, so that brings you down to 26, and Maine would probably knock Albany out if Maine wins out and Albany wins out, so that's probably 25. That leaves one more vulnerable team; is it 8-4 Towson? 7-5 SIU? SEMO?

I don't see a great argument for any major bubble reaches in looking at what's left is all I'm saying. I think the only 5 loss team that has a shot is SIU, and for awhile I've just assumed they were in but perhaps they're not.

[mainejeff]

I think it's fairly simple; the loser of Albany/New Hampshire is eliminated. If New Hampshire wins, Maine/UNH is for a playoff spot in all likelihood assuming Maine takes care of business against Rhode Island. Interestingly if Albany knocks off NH next week (they ought to be favored to do so) then Maine may be the odds on favorite to get in if they beat UNH since they beat Albany. I think people are sleeping on Maine. Three of their losses are to FBS/transitional. The Richmond loss looks fine, too.

That said, the safest third team to project in right now from the CAA is Towson. They should finish 8-4.

I think that 4 CAA teams are getting in......but only 1 of Albany/Maine/UNH. It becomes easier for the committee if UNH beats Albany this weekend......then winner of Maine/UNH is in.

[WrenFGun]

I'm not on the same page as you with Maine. They've lost to FBS Georgia Southern and Liberty and they've taken 3 CAA losses so not sure where you're getting 3 FBS/transitional losses. I think even at 7-5 they're very sketchy. They won't be hurt directly by those 2 FBS losses but they could be hurt indirectly because they'll have one less win than 8-4 teams like potentially Albany (who I know they beat head-to-head) and Towson. Bottom line is Maine needs a lot help to get in at 7-5 IMO.

Well, if Maine wins out (Rhode Island at home, @UNH) they'd finish 7-5, they'd have won 5 in a row, and they'd probably knock Albany (along with UNH) out of the playoffs. To me that's the clear fourth team in the CAA if that scenario unfolds. (My bad re: schedule; I saw the Central Michigan game pop up on the google scoreboard but it was from 2018). Now maybe the CAA is a three bid conference in that scenario, but I think that might be enough to sneak in.

[WrenFGun]

.

Just curious - why so much love for Towson? Their best win is probably Maine and they lost to Albany.

It's not a remarkable schedule by any means. 8DI wins from the CAA has traditionally been enough to make the playoffs, and I think there are a much surer bet to get there than a lot of other CAA teams are. Also that win over the Citadel may loom large, especially if the SoCon sees Wofford beat Furman but lose to the Citadel (they'd be the SoCon champs).

[maine612]

Just a bit on the CAA; I think Villanova still needs to be careful if they finish 8-4 and lose to UD to close the season. There's no good wins there [Richmond, I guess?] and it's going to be pretty bad down the stretch. They're probably fine, though.

I think at this point the four teams in contention for spots in the CAA [either spot 3 or spot 3 and 4] are Towson, UNH, Albany and Maine. One of UNH/Albany will be eliminated next weekend, and if they're not, one of Maine/UNH will be eliminated the following weekend. I actually think Towson is a very sure bet to make the playoffs, though; if we're giving Villanova credit at 8-4, shouldn't we give Towson credit too? I think if you just go by odds, UNH should lose to Albany (Away) and Beat Maine (Home). That would leave Albany as needing to win @SBU in the finale to secure a bid. Obviously if UNH beats Albany, then I think it's a play-in game. I think four are going to get in from the CAA unless Towson loses a stunner in the final two (@WM, home against Elon) or Albany BEATS UNH and then loses to SBU.

--

For reference, I think some other teams to keep an eye on:

BSC: Sac state probably saved their season with a win over NAU late. A loss there and again in closing would've been serious trouble. I think the Big Sky is a four bid conference, but keep an eye on Montana State. Road at UC Davis and then rivalry game. They could be in trouble.
In the MVFC, you may have to start scratching your head if SD State loses to Northern Iowa. That puts them at 7-4 with a win over SIU, and probably a must win game against South Dakota, who just routed YSU, to make the playoffs [they'd close 1-4 if they lose that game].
The OVC officially looks like a two bid league.

--

I think something's gotta give here, though. Here's the teams I still have in the playoff hunt (*=Lock)

Weber State*
Montana*
Sacramento State (1W and in)
Montana State (1W and in)
UC Davis (Win out and Bubble)
Monmouth*
James Madison*
Villanova*
Towson (Should finish 8-4, beat Citadel, Maine)
New Hampshire (Would finish 7-4, wins over Maine, Albany, Villanova)
Maine (Would finish 7-5, wins over UNH, Albany, 5 game win streak to close)
Albany (Would finish 8-4, wins over UNH, Towson)
North Dakota (Would finish 7-4, good wins over Montana State, UC Davis and Sam Houston, could be a problem for Montana State if they finish at 8-4, definite problem if they finish at 7-5)
North Dakota State*
Northern Iowa*
South Dakota State (1W and in, host UNI and on road against SD in rivalry game)
SIU (in with a win over WIU next week; 7-5, but FBS win, maybe a little bit more vulnerable than I thought with loss to SEMO on resume and no other significant wins outside of UMass)
Illinois State (in with one win in final two after knocking off SDSU, also own win over SIU)
CCSU/Robert Morris*
Austin Peay (1 win in final 2 gives them the conference title)
SEMO (they look good; nice win on road against SIU non-conference, hot coming in, could be an issue if they're up against Montana State or North Dakota in a comparison, so probably want to win out)
Patriot League (everyone sucks)*
San Diego*
Furman* (IMO if the committee has them at 9, they're in, win or loss to Wofford)
Wofford (I think they need to beat the Citadel, Furman almost doesn't matter. If they beat Furman and lose to the Citadel, I think they may be on the outside looking in even though I'd choose them over Furman).
Citadel (Beat Wofford, they're in over them IMO)
Sam Houston (5-4 with bad loss to Lamar, beat Nicholls; win out and bubble because of loss to ND who's also potentially bubble)
UCA* (Still fine; those Austin Peay and FBS wins really hold up, took care of most of southland)
SELA (Suddenly look pretty good; 7-4 with a win over Nicholls might be good enough)
Nicholls (can get to 8-4 and presumably knock out SELA, win over UCA looks good, but then lost 17-0 to Sam Houston in a head scratcher).
McNeese (Can knock Nicholls out of the conversation IMO with a win next week and catapult themselves in).

To me that's 31 teams competing for 24 spots; I don't really think Kennesaw State is in the realistic conversation but you might. Now if we work through it, one of Maine/UNH is guaranteed to be eliminated; one of McNeese/Nicholls is guaranteed to be eliminated. That brings you down to 29 teams. UC Davis is an extreme longshot and would almost certainly take the spot of one of the two playoff teams they beat down the stretch, which probably brings you to 28 teams for a 24 team field. I don't see a ton of room for budging off of that. I doubt the Southland is getting 4 teams in, so that probably brings you down to 27. I don't think the SoCon is getting 3, so that brings you down to 26, and Maine would probably knock Albany out if Maine wins out and Albany wins out, so that's probably 25. That leaves one more vulnerable team; is it 8-4 Towson? 7-5 SIU? SEMO?

I don't see a great argument for any major bubble reaches in looking at what's left is all I'm saying. I think the only 5 loss team that has a shot is SIU, and for awhile I've just assumed they were in but perhaps they're not.

Excellent analysis.

612

[Derby City Duke]

I looked this up and forgot what I found, but I think Maine has somehow managed to dodge James Madison each of the last two seasons.

Yep. Unbalanced schedule when you have 11 opponents in-conference and only an 8-game conference slate. Each team has 5 permanent partners and they rotate through the other 6 schools in groups of 3 -- think its a 2 year rotation so they get a home and home in with each of those 3.

[maine612]

I have to decide if I am going to fly to Boston for the weekend in a couple weeks... Maine at UNH... Patriots at home vs. Cowboys.... hmmmmm..

612

[katss07]

If you don’t think KSU is in the conversation, you’re crazy

[BadlandsGrizFan]

The Citadel at Montana State would be a very interesting game

Not as interesting as the game that would follow if the Cats beat Citadel

[WrenFGun]

If you don’t think KSU is in the conversation, you’re crazy

Who have they beaten?

[katss07]

Who have they beaten?
Absolutely nobody. They’ll get killed by any solid team they play.

The committee loves them. And if we’re projecting brackets, might as well try and be accurate.

[F'N Hawks]

If KSU wins out they will have 8 FCS wins with the best being over #73 Campbell.

[BisonTru]

Would anyone see South Carolina State getting in should they win out?

North Carolina A&T & Bethune-Cookman are OUT in my opinion following their losses to 1-win schools this past weekend.

I think consideration for sure given Wofford may be a playoff team. At the moment if SCSU wins and NC&T wins, NCA&T has the tiebreaker for the bowl game. If B-CU wins, SCSU would have the tiebreaker. Yet we still have a week left after that and we could be looking at a three way tie still yet.

Interesting note - Tiebreakers are head to head record first then a point system based on non-conference wins. Bethune-Cookman would lose the point system tiebreaker but it's non-conference game against SLA was cancelled iirc due to weather. Had that game been played and granted a win was received they would be tied with the other two in the point system as well.

[BisonTru]

If you don’t think KSU is in the conversation, you’re crazy

I'd agree with this. I'm not saying they should be in but even the AGS poll has them in the bracket at the moment. They are certainly in the conversation.

[Reign of Terrier]

If we win out. we could have wins over at least one and possibly 3 playoff teams. maybe wins over 5 wins over teams with winning records. and 2 losses to top 5 teams.
Wofford record would not match up.Wofford has more wins over ranked teams in the playoffs over the long term than UND. How many does UND have?

Your winning record criteria is bunk

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

I'd agree with this. I'm not saying they should be in but even the AGS poll has them in the bracket at the moment. They are certainly in the conversation.The two things most posters overlook when talking playoff spots are:
1) conference standings and
2) playoff rep

New Hampshire is the prototypical team that benefits from these considerations. I want to say it was 2016 that they got in at 7-4 but with only one win against a team with a winning record.

This is why you can't overlook 7-4 New Hampshire and 7-4 Wofford and 10-2 Kennesaw. These teams produce in the playoffs and if they are in the top 20 in the final week I don't see them getting left out.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[F'N Hawks]

Wofford has more wins over ranked teams in the playoffs over the long term than UND. How many does UND have?

Your winning record criteria is bunk

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

What does that have to do with 2019? Kennesaw should be a high seed by your criteria.

[Reign of Terrier]

What does that have to do with 2019? Kennesaw should be a high seed by your criteria.Last I checked the word "seed" (let alone phrase "hug seed") does not appear in any criteria I have put forward so far.

Hate it all you want but the committee has a memory.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Nodak78]

Wofford has more wins over ranked teams in the playoffs over the long term than UND. How many does UND have?

Your winning record criteria is bunk

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
in the long term as you are projecting. UND has wins over 3 playoffs teams. MSU, SHSU and UCD.

[Reign of Terrier]

in the long term as you are projecting. UND has wins over 3 playoffs teams. MSU, SHSU and UCD.How many of them were in the actual playoffs?

0.

By the standard of playoff team you're using (teams that have indeed made the playoffs before) Wofford has wins over like 2.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Daytripper]

How many of them were in the actual playoffs?

0.

By the standard of playoff team you're using (teams that have indeed made the playoffs before) Wofford has wins over like 2.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

If North Dakota wins out they are in. They have one bad loss to Idaho St. and one meh loss to EWU. Good wins v. SHSU, UC Davis, Montana St. and a "good loss" to Weber on the road.

[Catbooster]

How many of them were in the actual playoffs?

0.

By the standard of playoff team you're using (teams that have indeed made the playoffs before) Wofford has wins over like 2.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
I'm not sure what you mean, but it seems you're talking about past history? Look at this year's results. In this season, North Dakota has beat MSU, SHSU, and UCD. He's talking about teams that are in this year's conversation for the playoffs (although Davis is stretching it).

And if you're talking about historical playoff teams, they've all been in the playoffs too, so I don't know what you're trying to say.

[JayJ79]

(let alone phrase "hug seed")
that sounds like grounds for a lawsuit. At the very least a small-claims court case to cover the dry-cleaning charges.

[Professor Chaos]

Absolutely nobody. They’ll get killed by any solid team they play.

The committee loves them. And if we’re projecting brackets, might as well try and be accurate.
Where is that sentiment coming from? Last year for their midseason ranking the committee had Kennesaw ranked lower than any poll did including the AGS Poll. The committee seeded them #4 last year which is right in line from where they were in the AGS poll and lower than they were in the STATS or Coaches poll.

I think you're confusing the selection committee with the STATS and Coaches polls.

[Nodak78]

How many of them were in the actual playoffs?

0.

By the standard of playoff team you're using (teams that have indeed made the playoffs before) Wofford has wins over like 2.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I was assuming by long term you were counting your wins the next couple of weeks and Furman and Citadel make the playoffs. I apologies. You are not talking about this year. Prior years are irrelevant.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm not sure what you mean, but it seems you're talking about past history? Look at this year's results. In this season, North Dakota has beat MSU, SHSU, and UCD. He's talking about teams that are in this year's conversation for the playoffs (although Davis is stretching it).

And if you're talking about historical playoff teams, they've all been in the playoffs too, so I don't know what you're trying to say.He called out my "criteria" by strawmanning it. My claim was that, you may hate that a 7-4 UNH/Wofford or 10-2 KSU team gets let in with few key wins on the season, but history shows us the committee has an extended memory.

He mentioned some nonsense about "high seed" which I made no claim about.

Quite frankly, no one has beaten any playoff teams yet because the playoff teams aren't really set. I guarantee you at least 1-2 of UND's big wins won't make the playoffs. Then where are we?

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Reign of Terrier]

I was assuming by long term you were counting your wins the next couple of weeks and Furman and Citadel make the playoffs. I apologies. You are not talking about this year. Prior years are irrelevant.They most certainly are relevant. I can give you multiple instances of 7-4 teams getting into the playoffs without a huge win simply because they've done decent things in recent years. You may not like it, but it's the truth. I've been watching this process for over a decade and I will tell you a select few teams that finish relatively high in their conference will get in at 7-4 or so, simply because of legacy.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Gangtackle11]

Maine can't control their own conference schedule. People want it both ways on here...... Maine scheduled two FBS teams, and two out of conference teams that were at the top of their leagues last year (Sacred Heart, Colgate). They only had 5 home games this year (and last year they had 4!) I'm not sure that picking on the Maine schedule has much merit. Villanova, on the other hand, is doing their best to join the Patriot league (but they sure stepped up with that Long Island game). If Maine wins out, they would have had a great second half of the season and would merit a playoff spot in my opinion.

612

Nova beat Maine like a rented mule (moose?). ‘Nuff said. xpeacex

[Professor Chaos]

They most certainly are relevant. I can give you multiple instances of 7-4 teams getting into the playoffs without a huge win simply because they've done decent things in recent years. You may not like it, but it's the truth. I've been watching this process for over a decade and I will tell you a select few teams that finish relatively high in their conference will get in at 7-4 or so, simply because of legacy.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Ok, I'll bite. What are some examples of 7-4 teams getting in because of legacy?

[F'N Hawks]

Ok, I'll bite. What are some examples of 7-4 teams getting in because of legacy?

UNH in 2015. EIU in 2015 probably benefited from their deep Garropolo run in 2013, as well. They both had no business in the playoffs. Not that I remember or anything......

[Professor Chaos]

UNH in 2015. EIU in 2015 probably benefited from their deep Garropolo run in 2013, as well. They both had no business in the playoffs. Not that I remember or anything......
Ok, those are some good examples but you can pull examples from either side. USD made it at 7-4 in 2017 and they had never even been to the playoffs before. That same year Delaware and Montana, two schools with perhaps the most legacy at this level, were both left out at 7-4. Then last year you had the 6-4 Southland teams with no legacy to speak of both make it in. Furman definitely had more of a FCS legacy than those schools did and also finished 6-4 but was left out.

There's a lot of theories that get thrown around about knowing how the committee thinks but it's really hard to identify tendencies amongst a collective group of 10 people who are rotating new people in and out every couple years.

[WrenFGun]

UNH in 2015. EIU in 2015 probably benefited from their deep Garropolo run in 2013, as well. They both had no business in the playoffs. Not that I remember or anything......

I mean, you can read through my post history. There has never been a season in FCS history where UNH was the LAST TEAM IN over a team with a better resume. I remember Delaware fans being butthurt a few years back that UNH got in over them despite the fact that both teams should've been in and it wasn't a Delaware/UNH competition. Same thing happened with Albany.

Now if you want to say the committee was interesting in furthering UNH's streak of postseason appearances ... sure. But the real disservice were when inferior times got in and skirted blame, like the year Monmouth got an at-large over a 7-4 CAA Albany team who beat UNH.

[F'N Hawks]

I mean, you can read through my post history. There has never been a season in FCS history where UNH was the LAST TEAM IN over a team with a better resume. I remember Delaware fans being butthurt a few years back that UNH got in over them despite the fact that both teams should've been in and it wasn't a Delaware/UNH competition. Same thing happened with Albany.

Now if you want to say the committee was interesting in furthering UNH's streak of postseason appearances ... sure. But the real disservice were when inferior times got in and skirted blame, like the year Monmouth got an at-large over a 7-4 CAA Albany team who beat UNH.

Bud, trust me I dissected that season. No metric in world said UNH should've been in playoffs...sure as hell not over UND. I believe their SRS was like 33 or something.

[maine612]

Nova beat Maine like a rented mule (moose?). ‘Nuff said. xpeacex

Villanova therefore deserves to be in over Maine. So what? Your win over us has nothing to do with the argument. I was arguing strength of schedule. Good luck to you.

612

[Gangtackle11]

Villanova therefore deserves to be in over Maine. So what? Your win over us has nothing to do with the argument. I was arguing strength of schedule. Good luck to you.

612

Im not sure why that comes into play with Nova and Maine. Let’s say both win out. Nova is 9-3 (5-3) & Maine is 7-5 (5-3). Nova still gets in with win over Maine. Your SOS argument as it applies to Nova is if we lose to Delaware.

I’m not sure 8-4 (4-4) Nova is on solid ground, but at 9-3 (5-3) it’s over Johnny. My point. Good luck to you. xpeacex

[WrenFGun]

Bud, trust me I dissected that season. No metric in world said UNH should've been in playoffs...sure as hell not over UND. I believe their SRS was like 33 or something.

Like I said, you're wrong. Here's my quote from 2015:



UNH should've been in the field; they had a better resume than Towson. Both teams had questionable losses (UNH lost to Delaware and SBU, but the latter they were without their QB; Towson lost to Elon), UNH had the better wins (Colgate, Richmond).

The issue for me is really EIU/SHSU over UND. There is no way either of those teams belonged in over UND. You have to wonder if the committee is indirectly penalizing UND for playing the last game of the night last night. To me that's the head scratcher. You could make an argument for Towson over either of those two, but it's a neutral one and taking a 2nd from the OVC/Southland makes more sense than a 5th from the CAA.

You're barking up the wrong tree. UND was ridiculously penalized for being the last game during the night when they clearly belonged over both of those teams.

[Gangtackle11]

Current AGS Poll Bracket

AQ:
1 NDSU
2 JMU
3 Weber State
Monmouth
CCSU
APSU
Lafayette
San Diego
8 Furman
Central Arkansas

Highest ranked AGS team taken as AQ if not determined by W/L record.

At-Large:
4 Northern Iowa
5 Montana
6 Sacramento State
7 Illinois State
SDSU
Montana State
Villanova
SEMO
North Dakota
Wofford
SELA
Towson
Southern Illinois
Kennesaw State

1st 4 out:
Sam Houston State
New Hampshire
The Citadel
Nicholls

[F'N Hawks]

Like I said, you're wrong. Here's my quote from 2015:



You're barking up the wrong tree. UND was ridiculously penalized for being the last game during the night when they clearly belonged over both of those teams. [/COLOR]

What was the SRS breakdown that year? Cause I remember that actually being important then.

[Professor Chaos]

What was the SRS breakdown that year? Cause I remember that actually being important then.
I don't know if it was ever really that important but this was how it broke down in 2015: https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?178282-2015-SRS-Revealed (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?178282-2015-SRS-Revealed&highlight=ncaa+revealed)

UNH was rated 40th which was the lowest at-large selection that year by 16 spots and lower than 8 eligible teams (maybe 9 if PV A&M was eligible) that were left out.

[WrenFGun]

The problem with something like SRS is that it’s not super holistic. As I recall some of those teams didn’t have enough wins [NAU], some of those teams lost most of their games toward the end [believe YSU lost three in a row to close the season], some teams were behind other members in the same conference [i.e., Towson and Nova]. I don’t think it’s an unfair metric and I don’t think UNH was very good that season [they lost to Colgate in the first round in a game that wasn’t super close until the last two or three drives], but ultimately I think a lot of times SRS factors too much who you lost to and not enough who you beat. I think the committee when they’re looking at the schedule is looking at bad losses certainly, but more than anything, who did you beat? UNH had wins over two pretty solid teams during the season and even though they had some garbage losses that knocked the SRS down, I think those wins won out. Pardoning the 8 seeds, I believe UNH’s win over Richmond was the best in the field.

[Professor Chaos]

The problem with something like SRS is that it’s not super holistic. As I recall some of those teams didn’t have enough wins [NAU], some of those teams lost most of their games toward the end [believe YSU lost three in a row to close the season], some teams were behind other members in the same conference [i.e., Towson and Nova]. I don’t think it’s an unfair metric and I don’t think UNH was very good that season [they lost to Colgate in the first round in a game that wasn’t super close until the last two or three drives], but ultimately I think a lot of times SRS factors too much who you lost to and not enough who you beat. I think the committee when they’re looking at the schedule is looking at bad losses certainly, but more than anything, who did you beat? UNH had wins over two pretty solid teams during the season and even though they had some garbage losses that knocked the SRS down, I think those wins won out. Pardoning the 8 seeds, I believe UNH’s win over Richmond was the best in the field.
It was very flawed. When something gets essentially replaced by the coaches poll you know it had to be bad.

[Nodak78]

The problem with something like SRS is that it’s not super holistic. As I recall some of those teams didn’t have enough wins [NAU], some of those teams lost most of their games toward the end [believe YSU lost three in a row to close the season], some teams were behind other members in the same conference [i.e., Towson and Nova]. I don’t think it’s an unfair metric and I don’t think UNH was very good that season [they lost to Colgate in the first round in a game that wasn’t super close until the last two or three drives], but ultimately I think a lot of times SRS factors too much who you lost to and not enough who you beat. I think the committee when they’re looking at the schedule is looking at bad losses certainly, but more than anything, who did you beat? UNH had wins over two pretty solid teams during the season and even though they had some garbage losses that knocked the SRS down, I think those wins won out. Pardoning the 8 seeds, I believe UNH’s win over Richmond was the best in the field.
SRS was quite objective and the committee didn't follow it like it was designed or used other factors. The committee picks who they want criteria be damned.

[Professor Chaos]

SRS was quite objective and the committee didn't follow it like it was designed or used other factors. The committee picks who they want criteria be damned.
I'm pretty sure from it's inception the committee made it known that the SRS was used only to determine SOS and therefore the quality of wins and losses on a team's schedule. I think the committee members have minds of their own and really don't need something like the SRS to tell them who is good and who isn't.

[F'N Hawks]

The problem with something like SRS is that it’s not super holistic. As I recall some of those teams didn’t have enough wins [NAU], some of those teams lost most of their games toward the end [believe YSU lost three in a row to close the season], some teams were behind other members in the same conference [i.e., Towson and Nova]. I don’t think it’s an unfair metric and I don’t think UNH was very good that season [they lost to Colgate in the first round in a game that wasn’t super close until the last two or three drives], but ultimately I think a lot of times SRS factors too much who you lost to and not enough who you beat. I think the committee when they’re looking at the schedule is looking at bad losses certainly, but more than anything, who did you beat? UNH had wins over two pretty solid teams during the season and even though they had some garbage losses that knocked the SRS down, I think those wins won out. Pardoning the 8 seeds, I believe UNH’s win over Richmond was the best in the field.

Yah, about that who you beat thing.......that wasn't it. UND beat #6 seed Portland State on the road and Wyoming (FBS but sucked). But they lost to 2-9 Idaho State opening the door for the committee to wrap up their deliberations early and head to the bar while UND was dismantling Poly at 10:00pm ET.

[maine612]

Im not sure why that comes into play with Nova and Maine. Let’s say both win out. Nova is 9-3 (5-3) & Maine is 7-5 (5-3). Nova still gets in with win over Maine. Your SOS argument as it applies to Nova is if we lose to Delaware.

I’m not sure 8-4 (4-4) Nova is on solid ground, but at 9-3 (5-3) it’s over Johnny. My point. Good luck to you. xpeacex

It has nothing to do with it.. you are right.. but I wasn't making the point of Maine and Villanova... just making the case that Maine has a tough schedule (against other arguments on this page). I am tired of hearing the "Maine didn't play JMU argument" . Schedule is tough even so.

612

[WrenFGun]

Yah, about that who you beat thing.......that wasn't it. UND beat #6 seed Portland State on the road and Wyoming (FBS but sucked). But they lost to 2-9 Idaho State opening the door for the committee to wrap up their deliberations early and head to the bar while UND was dismantling Poly at 10:00pm ET.

UND got BADLY woofed that season. I think when I made my bracket I didn't even have them on the bubble that's how in I thought they were. Sucks that that happens.

[F'N Hawks]

UND got BADLY woofed that season. I think when I made my bracket I didn't even have them on the bubble that's how in I thought they were. Sucks that that happens.

For most programs it would've been OK but UND was finally decent after an awful transition to FCS. But like you can tell, I am over it....lol

[Baron Sardonicus]

Why? There are going to he plenty of at-large teams with 4 losses this year. Might even be a couple with 5.

I see your point. These are the newer, bigger playoffs.

Still have my doubts about North Dakota. With an easy schedule the rest of the way, their ranking may go up, while their power rating goes down. What will the committee do with them?

[Professor Chaos]

I see your point. These are the newer, bigger playoffs.

Still have my doubts about North Dakota. With an easy schedule the rest of the way, their ranking may go up, while their power rating goes down. What will the committee do with them?
I think they're in at 7-4 but there's differing schools of thought. Does only playing 11 games hurt them? Does a brutal loss to Idaho St hurt them? Does not playing an FBS game (so having 4 FCS losses) hurt them compared to teams that did and have one less FCS loss?

I think what will help them are wins over potentially 3 other bubble/playoff teams and two of their losses coming on the road to teams in the top 3 seeds, one of which being in a very competitive game.

They're definitely leaving it up to the committee as to what they want to value or devalue which is not a comfortable spot to be in though.

[F'N Hawks]

I see your point. These are the newer, bigger playoffs.

Still have my doubts about North Dakota. With an easy schedule the rest of the way, their ranking may go up, while their power rating goes down. What will the committee do with them?

They did their hard work, now they need to beat the two bottom feeders on the schedule like everyone else already did.

[Baron Sardonicus]

Does not playing an FBS game (so having 4 FCS losses) hurt them...?

No FBS game, but they did beat Drake.





:D

[BadlandsGrizFan]

I think they're in at 7-4 but there's differing schools of thought. Does only playing 11 games hurt them? Does a brutal loss to Idaho St hurt them? Does not playing an FBS game (so having 4 FCS losses) hurt them compared to teams that did and have one less FCS loss?

I think what will help them are wins over potentially 3 other bubble/playoff teams and two of their losses coming on the road to teams in the top 3 seeds, one of which being in a very competitive game.

They're definitely leaving it up to the committee as to what they want to value or devalue which is not a comfortable spot to be in though.

I thin NorthDakotas chance are largely tied to how Montana State finishes. If the Cats lose their last two..very possible against Davis and Montana....and ND wins their last two..likely....I think ND might steal that spot.

[Professor Chaos]

I thin NorthDakotas chance are largely tied to how Montana State finishes. If the Cats lose their last two..very possible against Davis and Montana....and ND wins their last two..likely....I think ND might steal that spot.
They certainly should be in front of Montana St in that scenario. But Montana St losing their last two would probably hurt UND a bit too when comparing to other bubble teams though because Montana St is their signature win as of now. If their win against the Bobcats starts to lose it's luster that ugly loss to Idaho St will be an even bigger anchor on their resume.

[Herder]

Who has a better playoff resume?

7-4 North Dakota (or)
7-5 Southern IL (if they would lose to NDSU the final week)

8-4 Southern IL would be in for sure IMO.

7-4 ND losses: NDSU, EWU, ID St, Weber
7-5 S IL losses: SE MO St, Ark St (FBS), SDSU, IL St, NDSU

[MSUBobcat]

They certainly should be in front of Montana St in that scenario. But Montana St losing their last two would probably hurt UND a bit too when comparing to other bubble teams though because Montana St is their signature win as of now. If their win against the Bobcats starts to lose it's luster that ugly loss to Idaho St will be an even bigger anchor on their resume.

My school of thought also. They probably need a quality win to bolster their record, so UND should be rooting for SHSU to win out to finish 8-4 (7 D-I wins), MSU to win 1 of 2, and/or Davis to win out to finish 7-5. Best case for UND would probably be SHSU wins out as is likely and then for Davis to beat both MSU and Sac State, and then MSU beats UM. That would give UND 3 wins over if not playoff teams, 3 teams at least under consideration.

[BadlandsGrizFan]

My school of thought also. They probably need a quality win to bolster their record, so UND should be rooting for SHSU to win out to finish 8-4 (7 D-I wins), MSU to win 1 of 2, and/or Davis to win out to finish 7-5. Best case for UND would probably be SHSU wins out as is likely and then for Davis to beat both MSU and Sac State, and then MSU beats UM. That would give UND 3 wins over if not playoff teams, 3 teams at least under consideration.

The amount of fluctuation the last two games in the Big Sky will cause is going to be insane.
Weber winning out would have the least amount of change in the conference and nation. Good chance this is the scenario.

Montana Winning out has crazy implications for Big Sky and playoff seeds for upto 4 different schools. This is a good chance of happening (my preferred scenario..lol)

Montana State winning out has you would assume would cause them to jump the Griz....but if the Griz beat Weber you would assume causes 3 BSC teams to get seeds? I think from the way teams are currently playing...MSU and UofM have the most difficult task of these teams winning out.

- - - Updated - - -


My school of thought also. They probably need a quality win to bolster their record, so UND should be rooting for SHSU to win out to finish 8-4 (7 D-I wins), MSU to win 1 of 2, and/or Davis to win out to finish 7-5. Best case for UND would probably be SHSU wins out as is likely and then for Davis to beat both MSU and Sac State, and then MSU beats UM. That would give UND 3 wins over if not playoff teams, 3 teams at least under consideration.

The amount of fluctuation the last two games in the Big Sky will cause is going to be insane.
Weber winning out would have the least amount of change in the conference and nation. Good chance this is the scenario.

Montana Winning out has crazy implications for Big Sky and playoff seeds for upto 4 different schools. This is a good chance of happening (my preferred scenario..lol)

Montana State winning out has you would assume would cause them to jump the Griz....but if the Griz beat Weber you would assume causes 3 BSC teams to get seeds? I think from the way teams are currently playing...MSU and UofM have the most difficult task of these teams winning out.

[Professor Chaos]

Who has a better playoff resume?

7-4 North Dakota (or)
7-5 Southern IL (if they would lose to NDSU the final week)

8-4 Southern IL would be in for sure IMO.

7-4 ND losses: NDSU, EWU, ID St, Weber
7-5 S IL losses: SE MO St, Ark St (FBS), SDSU, IL St, NDSU
That's a good question that could go either way. I think it depends on a few factors:
1) How do Montana St, SHSU, and UC Davis finish? If at least 2 of those are playoff or legit bubble teams then UND probably wins this argument.
2) Do UT Martin or Youngstown show any signs of life in the final 2 game? SIU needs this in order to hold onto some semblance of a quality win. Even though they have an FBS win over UMass that is a bad FBS team that I don't think it gets them in if that's their best win with 5 losses.

If I have to choose by guessing on those variables I'd say UND but it could go either way. It's also entirely possible they're both in in that scenario.

[Herder]

That's a good question that could go either way. I think it depends on a few factors:
1) How do Montana St, SHSU, and UC Davis finish? If at least 2 of those are playoff or legit bubble teams then UND probably wins this argument.
2) Do UT Martin or Youngstown show any signs of life in the final 2 game? SIU needs this in order to hold onto some semblance of a quality win. Even though they have an FBS win over UMass that is a bad FBS team that I don't think it gets them in if that's their best win with 5 losses.

If I have to choose by guessing on those variables I'd say UND but it could go either way. It's also entirely possible they're both in in that scenario.

If S IL would beat WIL, but lose a close one to NDSU, they would be a relatively hot team having won 5 of 6. They are playing good football right now after starting 2-4. A team that could make some noise in December. UND also a capable team. Tough call.

[cx500d]

https://i.imgur.com/pWZFoFy.png

[maine612]

What does this graph represent? Curious what reign Dartmouth has over Florida or JMU has over Maine.

612

[kalm]

I think they're in at 7-4 but there's differing schools of thought. Does only playing 11 games hurt them? Does a brutal loss to Idaho St hurt them? Does not playing an FBS game (so having 4 FCS losses) hurt them compared to teams that did and have one less FCS loss?

I think what will help them are wins over potentially 3 other bubble/playoff teams and two of their losses coming on the road to teams in the top 3 seeds, one of which being in a very competitive game.

They're definitely leaving it up to the committee as to what they want to value or devalue which is not a comfortable spot to be in though.

If MSU loses out and EWU wins out, EWU finishes solo 4th in the Big Sky with the h2h over UND and closes on a 4 game win streak at least two of which are blowouts. They would also be helped by Davis losin to Sac and NAU finishing equal to Davis at 6-6.

Still not enough to overcome the Idaho and JSU losses? Probably. But shouldn't EWU at least remain in the discussion?

[Reign of Terrier]

If MSU loses out and EWU wins out, EWU finishes solo 4th in the Big Sky with the h2h over UND and closes on a 4 game win streak at least two of which are blowouts. They would also be helped by Davis losin to Sac and NAU finishing equal to Davis at 6-6.

Still not enough to overcome the Idaho and JSU losses? Probably. But shouldn't EWU at least remain in the discussion?

Davis may get in, but none of the others.

[Professor Chaos]

If MSU loses out and EWU wins out, EWU finishes solo 4th in the Big Sky with the h2h over UND and closes on a 4 game win streak at least two of which are blowouts. They would also be helped by Davis losin to Sac and NAU finishing equal to Davis at 6-6.

Still not enough to overcome the Idaho and JSU losses? Probably. But shouldn't EWU at least remain in the discussion?
Probably in the discussion but not likely a serious bubble contender without a ton of help elsewhere. I think that scenario would hurt UND more than it helps EWU. Outside of their UND win EWU has hardly anything for quality wins so it won't be enough to overcome a bad loss to Idaho (I still don't think the JSU loss was that bad) and only 6 D1 wins IMO. If Montana St loses out UND has to hope UC Davis beats Sac St to finish out the regular season or I think UND is on very shaky ground as well.

[kalm]

Davis may get in, but none of the others.

I assume you're referring to the scenario I layed out but that would leave Davis at 6-6. And if UND doesn't get in at 7-4, SHSU shouldn't at 8-4. That's a pretty damn big bubble you're creating.

[that guy]

no i don't think 6-6 cuts it with a d-2 win barely.

[kalm]

no i don't think 6-6 cuts it with a d-2 win barely.

Agree on 6-6. That’s why I was asking. But Davis didn’t play a DII

[kalm]

And if you leave out UND and SHSU, then you can’t really justify Nicholls either. Bubble grows

[Reign of Terrier]

I assume you're referring to the scenario I layed out but that would leave Davis at 6-6. And if UND doesn't get in at 7-4, SHSU shouldn't at 8-4. That's a pretty damn big bubble you're creating.

To be completely honest with you, I think we're all blowing smoke. As I've said in various threads, there's good reason to think committee factors in conference standings and 5 losses is often a deal-breaker *unless* you win 2 big games (FBS P5 and a top 10). The Big Sky won't get as much love outside of the top 4 as many would wish, I'm just looking at history here. Most of the 5 loss FCS teams who made the playoffs (I think all of them were in the Valley) finished in the top 4 of their conference, I think.

[MSUBobcat]

If MSU loses out and EWU wins out, EWU finishes solo 4th in the Big Sky with the h2h over UND and closes on a 4 game win streak at least two of which are blowouts. They would also be helped by Davis losin to Sac and NAU finishing equal to Davis at 6-6.

Still not enough to overcome the Idaho and JSU losses? Probably. But shouldn't EWU at least remain in the discussion?

With a max of 6 D-I wins in a 12 game season..... I think EWU's playoff hopes were probably dashed on Oct. 26th, regardless of where they finish in conference standings. If they win out, Sac State and UM both lose out, and MSU wins 1 of 2, EWU would finish 2nd in the Big Sky and then maaaaaaybe EWU has hope. That's a whole lot that needs to go right for EWU. There's still a lot that will shake out in these last 2 weeks. By Sunday, we'll have a much clearer picture of the bubble, but EWU really should be WSU, UI and UC-Davis fans this week. If they don't finish in at least 3rd in the Big Sky, they have no chance, IMO. Wins by Sac and UM this week makes 4th the best EWU can finish, and that's just not good enough. I even postulate that if EWU wins out and MSU wins 1 of the last 2, finishing 5th, 8-4 MSU (all D-I wins), would be more likely to get the bid over 4th place, 7-5, 6 D-I win EWU.

[Catbooster]

What does this graph represent? Curious what reign Dartmouth has over Florida or JMU has over Maine.

612
https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/dvchfa/2019_fcs_imperialism_map_week_11/

If you beat a team, you take over their territory. So for instance, MSU had a decent chunk of the map earlier in the season after winning our first 5 FCS games, but then when Sac State beat us, they get all of our territory. Then when N. Dakota beat us the next week, they didn't get anything since Sac had taken it the previous week and we didn't have any territory. Now that's all turned into Weber territory since Weber beat Sac afterwards. If someone beats weber, they'll take their portion of the map.

[MSUBobcat]

https://www.reddit.com/r/fcs/comments/dvchfa/2019_fcs_imperialism_map_week_11/

If you beat a team, you take over their territory. So for instance, MSU had a decent chunk of the map earlier in the season after winning our first 5 FCS games, but then when Sac State beat us, they get all of our territory. Then when N. Dakota beat us the next week, they didn't get anything since Sac had taken it the previous week and we didn't have any territory. Now that's all turned into Weber territory since Weber beat Sac afterwards. If someone beats weber, they'll take their portion of the map.

I understand the "taking over their territory" of the imperialism maps. What I don't get is how the territory was assigned originally. Why did PSU get all of Alaska except up by Kotzebue and the Fairbanks to Valdez boroughs, which went to EWU? Why did Poly get all of Hawaii except Kauai and Ni'ihau, which went to Davis. Neither of those states have FCS schools, so I'm just mildly curious as to how they decided with boroughs/counties/islands went to which school.

[Catbooster]

From the link: "This map assigns each county in the United States to it's closest FCS team."
I haven't really followed it, but I do remember being a little surprised at how Alaska and Hawaii ended up to start the year. I just assumed because we're used to seeing a flat projection of a globe.

[Professor Chaos]

I understand the "taking over their territory" of the imperialism maps. What I don't get is how the territory was assigned originally. Why did PSU get all of Alaska except up by Kotzebue and the Fairbanks to Valdez boroughs, which went to EWU? Why did Poly get all of Hawaii except Kauai and Ni'ihau, which went to Davis. Neither of those states have FCS schools, so I'm just mildly curious as to how they decided with boroughs/counties/islands went to which school.
I think the logic he used was to calculate the school closest to any border of a particular county. In Alaska's case I don't think they even have counties, just townships which are weirdly shaped and monstrous so you get some pretty strange variance in what FCS school they're closest to if you're using any border of the county/township. In the case of Hawaii those islands that are further north and west must've allowed the distance to northern California where Davis is at to even out with southern California where SLO is at.

[maine612]

I never thought I would see Ni'ihau, the secret and forbidden island of Hawaii, mentioned on this website.... but here we are.

612

[Professor Chaos]

To be completely honest with you, I think we're all blowing smoke. As I've said in various threads, there's good reason to think committee factors in conference standings and 5 losses is often a deal-breaker *unless* you win 2 big games (FBS P5 and a top 10). The Big Sky won't get as much love outside of the top 4 as many would wish, I'm just looking at history here. Most of the 5 loss FCS teams who made the playoffs (I think all of them were in the Valley) finished in the top 4 of their conference, I think.
In 2018 6-5 (5-3) UNI finished in a tie for 3rd with Indiana St. Both teams above them made the field, they won the tie breaker with Indiana St who did not.
In 2016 6-5 (4-4) Illinois St finished in a tie for 4th with UNI. All 3 teams above them made the field, they won the tie breaker with UNI who did not.
In 2015 6-5 (5-3) Western Illinois finished in a tie for 3rd with UNI and SDSU. Both teams above them made the field, they won the tie breaker with UNI and SDSU who also both made the field.
In 2014 7-5 (4-4) Indiana St finished in a tie for 5th with YSU. All 4 teams above them made the field, they won the tie breaker with Youngstown St who did not.

So the 5 loss MVFC teams that have made the field have finished 3rd, 4th, 3rd, and 5th when you include tie breakers and they have always won their conference tie breakers.

EDIT: Figured tie breakers as well and added them above.

[Reign of Terrier]

In 2018 6-5 (5-3) UNI finished in a tie for 3rd with one other team.
In 2016 6-5 (4-4) Illinois St finished in a tie for 4th with one other team.
In 2015 6-5 (5-3) Western Illinois finished in a tie for 3rd with two other teams.
In 2014 7-5 (4-4) Indiana St finished in a tie for 5th with one other team.

I don't know the tie breakers for those seasons but depending on that the 5 loss MVFC teams that have made the field in the past have finished anywhere from 3rd to 6th.

Meanwhile, the fourth place team in the Big Sky has historically been left out.

2012 Northern Arizona was 8-3, had a wing against UNLV and was ranked in the top 15 in the final 3 weeks of the season. Left out.

2014: Three teams at 7-5, but only one (Cal Poly) with 7 D1 wins. All left out. CP had a bad loss to UC Davis <eyes UND loss to Idaho State this year>

2015: two teams with 7 wins, one with 7 D1 wins. North Dakota had a G5 win over Wyoming. Left out

2017: three teams with 7 D1 wins. All left out.


So, looking at history, I have hard time believing that the Big Sky will get more than 4 in. It comes down to whether the committee sees the conference as tougher than it was even last year. UND, UC Davis, and Montana State are probably fighting for one spot I know UND isn't in the Big Sky technically, but they play a similar schedule. This little mass of humanity with a mixed bag of quality wins and questionable losses is common and people have a short memory.

the MVFC is the exception that proves the rule.

[Professor Chaos]

Meanwhile, the fourth place team in the Big Sky has historically been left out.

2012 Northern Arizona was 8-3, had a wing against UNLV and was ranked in the top 15 in the final 3 weeks of the season. Left out.

2014: Three teams at 7-5, but only one (Cal Poly) with 7 D1 wins. All left out. CP had a bad loss to UC Davis <eyes UND loss to Idaho State this year>

2015: two teams with 7 wins, one with 7 D1 wins. North Dakota had a G5 win over Wyoming. Left out

2017: three teams with 7 D1 wins. All left out.


So, looking at history, I have hard time believing that the Big Sky will get more than 4 in. It comes down to whether the committee sees the conference as tougher than it was even last year. UND, UC Davis, and Montana State are probably fighting for one spot I know UND isn't in the Big Sky technically, but they play a similar schedule. This little mass of humanity with a mixed bag of quality wins and questionable losses is common and people have a short memory.

the MVFC is the exception that proves the rule.
Updated my post above. Those 5 loss MVFC teams finished 3rd twice, 4th once, and 5th once but they always won the tie breakers with teams they were tied with.

I don't think the committee necessarily cares how many teams from any particular conference they put in but their perception of the strength of a conference will have a direct affect on that since that'll play a strong role in SOS and it does seem like they haven't been particularly fond of the bubble Big Sky teams in the past. This is a different year and a new committee though. It's also likely that the CAA sends fewer teams to the playoffs than they have in a long time so they'll have to pick up the slack somewhere with additional bids going to places they don't usually go.

[BisonTru]

Meanwhile, the fourth place team in the Big Sky has historically been left out.

2012 Northern Arizona was 8-3, had a wing against UNLV and was ranked in the top 15 in the final 3 weeks of the season. Left out.

2014: Three teams at 7-5, but only one (Cal Poly) with 7 D1 wins. All left out. CP had a bad loss to UC Davis <eyes UND loss to Idaho State this year>

2015: two teams with 7 wins, one with 7 D1 wins. North Dakota had a G5 win over Wyoming. Left out

2017: three teams with 7 D1 wins. All left out.


So, looking at history, I have hard time believing that the Big Sky will get more than 4 in. It comes down to whether the committee sees the conference as tougher than it was even last year. UND, UC Davis, and Montana State are probably fighting for one spot I know UND isn't in the Big Sky technically, but they play a similar schedule. This little mass of humanity with a mixed bag of quality wins and questionable losses is common and people have a short memory.

the MVFC is the exception that proves the rule.

There is NO rule nor has the committee ever sited "___________ conference gets __ number of teams." It's not a thing, yet you are very hung up on it. Historically doesn't matter. Conferences get weaker and stronger thru out the years. The Big Sky is having one of the best years as a conference that I can honestly remember. That still doesn't mean they get __ number of teams, but they will have a lot of teams in the bubble and they aren't competing just with other Big Sky teams for the last few spots. They are competing with everyone else in the bubble.

If the season ended today, both North Dakota and Montana State get in, imo. And btw, I don't like either one of those schools.

[Reign of Terrier]

There is NO rule nor has the committee ever sited "___________ conference gets __ number of teams." It's not a thing, yet you are very hung up on it. Historically doesn't matter. Conferences get weaker and stronger thru out the years. The Big Sky is having one of the best years as a conference that I can honestly remember. That still doesn't mean they get __ number of teams, but they will have a lot of teams in the bubble and they aren't competing just with other Big Sky teams for the last few spots. They are competing with everyone else in the bubble.

If the season ended today, both North Dakota and Montana State get in, imo. And btw, I don't like either one of those schools.

It's not an official rule, but if it happens predictably every year, it may as well be xnodx. For political reasons, the committee isn't going to choose a bunch of 7-5 teams with no particularly strong win (say, top 10 win) from one conference over another. The very fact that pretty much every conference that ever gets an at-large has about an 80-85% chance of getting into the field with 7 D1 wins, while there are plenty of years where the big conferences with more than 10 teams getting multiple left out with 7 D1 wins is evidence enough for that.

You're not going to see, say, 4 7-5 teams from the Big Sky, and say, none from the OVC/Southern/Southland. You just won't. It never happens. They try to have something resembling balance, even if folks like us who have Massey Ratings and know the history of the field can see right through it.

The MVFC is probably the exception, but they're helped greatly by having NDSU in the conference, similarly to how App State in the three-peat helped inflate the Socon by public perception (some not-special Elon and Georgia Southern teams were seen as special). I think if we had a situation where SIU, Illinois State and YSU were 7-5 or worse, you could have seen two left out. But they're going to get 5 this year because SIU's win against UMass, but even then I wouldn't be too surprised if they got left out, if that makes sense.

[kalm]

It's not an official rule, but if it happens predictably every year, it may as well be xnodx. For political reasons, the committee isn't going to choose a bunch of 7-5 teams with no particularly strong win (say, top 10 win) from one conference over another. The very fact that pretty much every conference that ever gets an at-large has about an 80-85% chance of getting into the field with 7 D1 wins, while there are plenty of years where the big conferences with more than 10 teams getting multiple left out with 7 D1 wins is evidence enough for that.

You're not going to see, say, 4 7-5 teams from the Big Sky, and say, none from the OVC/Southern/Southland. You just won't. It never happens. They try to have something resembling balance, even if folks like us who have Massey Ratings and know the history of the field can see right through it.

The MVFC is probably the exception, but they're helped greatly by having NDSU in the conference, similarly to how App State in the three-peat helped inflate the Socon by public perception (some not-special Elon and Georgia Southern teams were seen as special). I think if we had a situation where SIU, Illinois State and YSU were 7-5 or worse, you could have seen two left out. But they're going to get 5 this year because SIU's win against UMass, but even then I wouldn't be too surprised if they got left out, if that makes sense.

* Loves strong wins (regardless of whether they are incestuously within conference), ignores strength of schedule.

[Reign of Terrier]

* Loves strong wins (regardless of whether they are incestuously within conference), ignores strength of schedule.

Just looking at what I've collected with the D1 win numbers, the "southern" (Southland, Southern, big South) conferences each have a 90%+ chance of making the playoffs with 7 D1 wins(61 of 64), but the CAA/Big sky, the two biggest conferences have about 82% chance (65 of 79).

Just logically speaking, when you have a bigger conference where teams don't play the entire league, you're going to have scheduling variation, which means more teams at this .500 level. So the raw number of teams looking decent at 6-6 and 7-5 may be impressive, but in relative terms it's not as impressive, and the committee to an extent sees through it.

As a sidenote, with the MVFC growing to 11 teams with the addition of UND, we may see similar developments in the future.

to be clear, I'm not making a judgment of this being good or bad or what the committee should or should not do, I'm just drawing attention to what the committee does. Having said that, the committee likes to do unprecedented things (2 6-win teams from the Southland getting in, 3 seeds for the Big Sky), so *I* could be the one blowing smoke here

[uofmman1122]

EWU can *technically* still win a share of the conference and have a somewhat decent looking resume relative to the rest of Big Sky, but it's a huge stretch.

Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats Montana.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.


Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2


Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could kind of make an argument that any combination of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks, and I honestly can't decide which teams out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd put in here. Davis probably has the strongest case, followed by Sac, but do you ignore EWU's 4-game winning streak and share of the conference title? Maybe!

[F'N Hawks]

Sac has a tricky one in the Kibbles & Bits Dome this weekend. Idaho is such a strange team. Is Thomson back?

[Grizzlies82]

Sac has a tricky one in the Kibbles & Bits Dome this weekend. Idaho is such a strange team. Is Thomson back?


As far as I know Thomson didn't play at all in Arizona. He took a very hard blind side hit versus Weber and I don't know if they've ever publicly stated his condition.

It was a BIG, BIG hit. Yet it was also the kind of hit QB's usually shake off. If not immediately, a QB certainly shakes it off by the following week. Since he didn't play at NAU I have to wonder if he was seriously injured.

As far as Idaho goes, they are not a good team. Primarily they're terribly undisciplined and very inconsistent. However they have some excellent athletes and like most of the sports world they play better at home than on the road.

The final weekend is Sac State versus UC Davis in their big rivalry game. So I wouldn't be shocked if the Hornets were looking ahead to that game and a Thomson-less Sacramento picked up a loss in Moscow. I'm not betting on it as Sac State has the far better team, but I would not be completely surprised.

[Grizzlies82]

What assumptions are you using to "have a hard time believing"??? If Weber loses both, I'm fairly sure they'll still be in (8-4 with 2 close FBS losses, 8 D-I wins including UNI, Sac State and UND), but a loss at home to UI is unlikely. If the Griz lose both, there's a decent chance an 8-4 UM team gets in (no "bad losses", 8 D-I wins but Monmouth or Davis being the most "quality" hurts a bit). Sac State seems to be okay even if Thomson can't go for the next week, so I predict they win at least 1, if not both, of @Idaho and vs UC-Davis and have a decent case for a bid even with only one win (8-4, 2 FBS losses + top 5 WSU, strong quality wins over MSU and UM), but would be a lock with 2 wins. MSU should be a lock if they can win 1 of @Davis or vs. UM. They'd be 8-4, all D-I wins, including likely playoff participant SEMO. Worst loss would be Davis, but then offset by a quality win over UM or UND if we beat Davis but lose the Brawl.

Seems to me that to not see how the Big Sky gets 4, you have to be under one or more of the following assumptions: (1) Weber State and/or UM are NOT yet assured a spot and need to win at least one more. (2) Sac State MUST win both remaining games and/or (3) MSU MUST win both remaining games. In rebuttal, the loser of WSU-UM will likely remain in the top 10, so a BBQ loss to the Vandals probably doesn't keep them out, just as a Griz loss to MSU likely doesn't drop them out of the top 24 playoff eligible teams either. Sac State bounced back from the WSU loss with a good win in a tough place, so I don't see them losing out. The Hornets are currently ranked #6 so going 1-1 seems nearly impossible that a loss @UI would drop them so far out of contention that a win over UC-Davis wouldn't bring them back in, while a win @UI would cause them to hold fairly steady and a loss to Davis would probably not cause a precipitous fall to knock them out. MSU is in a similar position as Sac State in that going 1-1 in either order likely doesn't cause a large enough fall to drop out of contention. A loss to Davis would cause a decent decline, but a victory in the Brawl would cause a decent rise in rankings. A victory over Davis wouldn't garner much improvement in rankings, but a loss to the Griz wouldn't cause a large enough fall, IMO.

In summary, barring craziness among other teams causing a decline in the quality of wins/losses, the Grills and Griz are near-locks with 8 D-I wins already. Sac State and MSU need 1 more win, MSU to get to 8 D-I with no real terrible losses and Sac to get to 7 D-I with zero or one bad loss (if to UI) but solid wins over MSU and UM. Sac State can assure their spot by winning out, which is very possible with their schedule. I'd put money on any and all BSC teams that get to 8 D-I wins getting a bid. Sac is possible with 7 due to their current #6 ranking.


MSUbobcat, he was saying Big Sky getting MORE THAN 4 teams in.

I think your final paragraph sums up the status of the four schools pretty well.

[MSUBobcat]

MSUbobcat, he was saying Big Sky getting MORE THAN 4 teams in.

I think your final paragraph sums up the status of the four schools pretty well.

Sonuvabitch.... I usually read better than that. xdrunkyx Deleted it. Thanks. Though, if one IS including UND as BSC, I think they have a very possible chance of making it, depending on the strength of the bubble.

[MSUBobcat]

As far as I know Thomson didn't play at all in Arizona. He took a very hard blind side hit versus Weber and I don't know if they've ever publicly stated his condition.

It was a BIG, BIG hit. Yet it was also the kind of hit QB's usually shake off. If not immediately, a QB certainly shakes it off by the following week. Since he didn't play at NAU I have to wonder if he was seriously injured.

As far as Idaho goes, they are not a good team. Primarily they're terribly undisciplined and very inconsistent. However they have some excellent athletes and like most of the sports world they play better at home than on the road.

The final weekend is Sac State versus UC Davis in their big rivalry game. So I wouldn't be shocked if the Hornets were looking ahead to that game and a Thomson-less Sacramento picked up a loss in Moscow. I'm not betting on it as Sac State has the far better team, but I would not be completely surprised.

Took some digging to find the article I read about a month ago (before the injury). Both of his last 2 seasons were ended by back injuries. Very unfortunate. https://skylinesportsmt.com/sac-state-qb-thomson-has-injury-riddled-career-revived/

[Grizzlies82]

Took some digging to find the article I read about a month ago (before the injury). Both of his last 2 seasons were ended by back injuries. Very unfortunate. https://skylinesportsmt.com/sac-state-qb-thomson-has-injury-riddled-career-revived/


Wow, sorry to hear that! I knew he had a history of injury but didn't really know what.

I watched that game. He took a monster blind side hit square in the middle of his back.

Hope Thomson is OK, and I'm not really talking about his football career here.

[Professor Chaos]

Lets say just for ****zengiggles that the homes teams win the two top 10 matchups this week and SDSU beats UNI along with Montana beating Weber St. How in the world do you sort out these 6 teams on the seed lines?

Illinois St
Montana
Northern Iowa
Sacramento St
South Dakota St
Weber St

Illinois St lost to UNI but beat SDSU who beat UNI who also lost to Weber St who beat Sacramento St who beat Montana who beat Weber St. xrotatehx

[uni88]

Lets say just for ****zengiggles that the homes teams win the two top 10 matchups this week and SDSU beats UNI along with Montana beating Weber St. How in the world do you sort out these 6 teams on the seed lines?

Illinois St
Montana
Northern Iowa
Sacramento St
South Dakota St
Weber St

Illinois St lost to UNI but beat SDSU who beat UNI who also lost to Weber St who beat Sacramento St who beat Montana who beat Weber St. xrotatehx

Take a dice and assign each team a #. Roll the dice, whatever team's number comes up is #3. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #4. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #5. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #6. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #7. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #8. Keep rolling if you ever get a team's number that has already been selected. Done!

[Professor Chaos]

Take a dice and assign each team a #. Roll the dice, whatever team's number comes up is #3. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #4. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #5. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #6. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #7. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #8. Keep rolling if you ever get a team's number that has already been selected. Done!
That would probably be as fair as any. My stab at it would be:

3. Weber St
4. Montana
5. SDSU
6. Illinois St
7. UNI
8. Sacramento St

But I look at that and see so many rankings contradicting the head-to-head results it just makes me want to trash it use your approach.

[SactoHornetFan]

If Sac State wins out, they are top 4. Period. I can't recall anyone ever beating EWU, MSU and UM in three straight weeks.
And if you watch the replay of the Weber game, Sac's D made major adjustments at halftime on the Weber offense.
It's too bad Thomson went down late in the first half. I think its a different ending (almost like the NAU game) if he doesn't get injured.
Then for the Hornets to got to NAU from sea level to 7,000 ft the following week with a first-time starting backup? Incredible.

[CappinHard]

That would probably be as fair as any. My stab at it would be:

3. Weber St
4. Montana
5. SDSU
6. Illinois St
7. UNI
8. Sacramento St

But I look at that and see so many rankings contradicting the head-to-head results it just makes me want to trash it use your approach.

Is this assuming Furman loses, or do you think they won't get a seed? I feel like it will be tough for the committee to leave them out if they win out. The opportunity to give a seed to a conference other than MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA might be too tempting for them.

[Professor Chaos]

Is this assuming Furman loses, or do you think they won't get a seed? I feel like it will be tough for the committee to leave them out if they win out. The opportunity to give a seed to a conference other than MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA might be too tempting for them.
Assuming none of those 6 Big Sky/MVFC teams lose to anyone else I think they all should be seeded but I have a feeling the committee will seed Furman for political reasons as much as anything else.


If Sac State wins out, they are top 4. Period. I can't recall anyone ever beating EWU, MSU and UM in three straight weeks.
And if you watch the replay of the Weber game, Sac's D made major adjustments at halftime on the Weber offense.
It's too bad Thomson went down late in the first half. I think its a different ending (almost like the NAU game) if he doesn't get injured.
Then for the Hornets to got to NAU from sea level to 7,000 ft the following week with a first-time starting backup? Incredible.
I don't buy Sac St as a top 4 seed unless Thomson comes back and Weber beats Montana. Main reason I had Sac St at 8 and not higher in my previous scenario is because Thomson is still out.

[SactoHornetFan]

Assuming none of those 6 Big Sky/MVFC teams lose to anyone else I think they all should be seeded but I have a feeling the committee will seed Furman for political reasons as much as anything else.


I don't buy Sac St as a top 4 seed unless Thomson comes back and Weber beats Montana. Main reason I had Sac St at 8 and not higher in my previous scenario is because Thomson is still out.

He'll be back. It's been reported he is practicing this week.

[Professor Chaos]

He'll be back. It's been reported he is practicing this week.
That's great to hear! Hate to see great players missing any amount of time much less in or close to the playoffs. Will make the committees job even tougher if Montana beats Weber St.

[Grizzlies82]

He'll be back. It's been reported he is practicing this week.


Glad to hear the kid is Okay!

[MSUBobcat]

Lets say just for ****zengiggles that the homes teams win the two top 10 matchups this week and SDSU beats UNI along with Montana beating Weber St. How in the world do you sort out these 6 teams on the seed lines?

Illinois St
Montana
Northern Iowa
Sacramento St
South Dakota St
Weber St

Illinois St lost to UNI but beat SDSU who beat UNI who also lost to Weber St who beat Sacramento St who beat Montana who beat Weber St. xrotatehx


Is this assuming Furman loses, or do you think they won't get a seed? I feel like it will be tough for the committee to leave them out if they win out. The opportunity to give a seed to a conference other than MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA might be too tempting for them.

Given that all 6 teams would have wins over other teams in the group and no FCS losses outside of that group, those resumes are probably better than Furman's. However, the Valley is NOT going to get 4 of 8 seeds, with the Big Sky getting an additional 3. Not happening. The loser of the UNI-SDSU game will give up their seed to Furman. Wins/losses of those 6 teams assuming UM and SDSU wins (excluding FBS/NDSU):

Weber - wins over UNI and Sac State, loss to UM; 2-1 among the group
UM - win over Weber, loss to Sac State; 1-1 among the group
Sac State - win over UM, loss to Weber; 1-1 among the group
ISU-r - win over SDSU, loss to UNI; 1-1 among the group
SDSU - win over UNI, loss to ISUr; 1-1 among the group
UNI - win over ISU-r, losses to Weber and SDSU; 1-2 among the group; can't see that being good enough to get the Valley a 4th seed.

Conversely, if UNI beats SDSU:
SDSU - NO wins, losses to ISU-r and UNI; 0-2 among the group; no way that gets them a seed, especially going 2-3 over their last 5 games.
UNI - wins over ISU-r and SDSU, loss to Weber; 2-1 among the group

I see no path for the loser of SDSU-UNI getting a seed, especially when the MVFC already has 3 others.

[MSUBobcat]

He'll be back. It's been reported he is practicing this week.

Great news! That hit was brutal, especially given his history of back injuries.

[Redbird 4th & short]

3. Weber St
4. SDSU .. assuming they beat UNI
5. Sac St .. should win out
6/7. UNI/ Montana
8. ISUr .. lock if we win out for 9-3

Montana St, Furman, Towson, Villanova all waiting in wings for someone above to fall assuming they win out.

[uni88]

Given that all 6 teams would have wins over other teams in the group and no FCS losses outside of that group, those resumes are probably better than Furman's. However, the Valley is NOT going to get 4 of 8 seeds, with the Big Sky getting an additional 3. Not happening. The loser of the UNI-SDSU game will give up their seed to Furman. Wins/losses of those 6 teams assuming UM and SDSU wins (excluding FBS/NDSU):

Weber - wins over UNI and Sac State, loss to UM; 2-1 among the group
UM - win over Weber, loss to Sac State; 1-1 among the group
Sac State - win over UM, loss to Weber; 1-1 among the group
ISU-r - win over SDSU, loss to UNI; 1-1 among the group
SDSU - win over UNI, loss to ISUr; 1-1 among the group
UNI - win over ISU-r, losses to Weber and SDSU; 1-2 among the group; can't see that being good enough to get the Valley a 4th seed.

Conversely, if UNI beats SDSU:
SDSU - NO wins, losses to ISU-r and UNI; 0-2 among the group; no way that gets them a seed, especially going 2-3 over their last 5 games.
UNI - wins over ISU-r and SDSU, loss to Weber; 2-1 among the group

I see no path for the loser of SDSU-UNI getting a seed, especially when the MVFC already has 3 others.

I agree. UNI and SDSU are playing for a seed (assuming they win the final game too).

Where do you seed SDSU if they win? Is a 6 seed better for them than a 4 seed and a possible trip to Fargo? If so, the ISUr loss might not be a bad thing.

I also don't think Sac St is a top 4 seed if Weber and UNI win out.

[Grizzlies82]

That would probably be as fair as any. My stab at it would be:

3. Weber St
4. Montana
5. SDSU
6. Illinois St
7. UNI
8. Sacramento St

But I look at that and see so many rankings contradicting the head-to-head results it just makes me want to trash it use your approach.


Your scenario could easily pan out. If so it does create quite the tangle. I'm not even going to try to sort it out.

However, I will say I'm not sure that Illinois State or No. Iowa should be considered for the seeds. I know I'll catch crap for this. Being MVFC teams they get undue love and may be seeded. Just not sure they deserve it. You have a four loss No Iowa dropping a game the week before selections, and the highlight of their season was the FBS loss back in August. Then you have Ill State with one quality win (So Dakota State).

Honestly in your scenario I'd say one or the other might be worth the #8 seed but neither would necessarily be worthy of any more.

[F'N Hawks]

Crazy that multiple 4 loss teams could be considered for seeds this year.

[katss07]

Nobody should want to be that 8 seed. If Montana loses to Weber State, they’d better hope they fall off the seeding line.

[MSUBobcat]

3. Weber St
4. SDSU .. assuming they beat UNI
5. Sac St .. should win out
6/7. UNI/ Montana
8. ISUr .. lock if we win out for 9-3

Montana St, Furman, Towson, Villanova all waiting in wings for someone above to fall assuming they win out.

UNI is out if they lose to SDSU, so Furman likely takes that spot if for no other reason than to give a 4th conference a seed. For Montana State to win out, that means the Griz have to lose, so in your scenario we'd probably be next to fill that spot. Towson and Nova already have 2 losses to teams outside the current top 8 and MSU would have 1 loss to a seed, 1 loss to a playoff hopeful UND and a win over UM who would have been a seed under current thinking. I'm just looking to Saturday's game against Davis....

[MSUBobcat]

Nobody should want to be that 8 seed. If Montana loses to Weber State, they’d better hope they fall off the seeding line.

But then you have a 50-50 shot of being assigned NDSU's half of the bracket anyway and you're on the road for the 2nd round (after having played an extra 1st round game) rather than being home in the 2nd round. That's not a gamble I'd take personally.

[CappinHard]

Given that all 6 teams would have wins over other teams in the group and no FCS losses outside of that group, those resumes are probably better than Furman's. However, the Valley is NOT going to get 4 of 8 seeds, with the Big Sky getting an additional 3. Not happening. The loser of the UNI-SDSU game will give up their seed to Furman. Wins/losses of those 6 teams assuming UM and SDSU wins (excluding FBS/NDSU):

Weber - wins over UNI and Sac State, loss to UM; 2-1 among the group
UM - win over Weber, loss to Sac State; 1-1 among the group
Sac State - win over UM, loss to Weber; 1-1 among the group
ISU-r - win over SDSU, loss to UNI; 1-1 among the group
SDSU - win over UNI, loss to ISUr; 1-1 among the group
UNI - win over ISU-r, losses to Weber and SDSU; 1-2 among the group; can't see that being good enough to get the Valley a 4th seed.

Conversely, if UNI beats SDSU:
SDSU - NO wins, losses to ISU-r and UNI; 0-2 among the group; no way that gets them a seed, especially going 2-3 over their last 5 games.
UNI - wins over ISU-r and SDSU, loss to Weber; 2-1 among the group

I see no path for the loser of SDSU-UNI getting a seed, especially when the MVFC already has 3 others.

What if Furman loses? Who's getting that other seed? Nova? xsmhx

[wapiti]

Another factor that may (or may not) affect seeding is how a team ends the season. End the season on a winning streak may look better than team that does not.
A team's strength may change as the season progresses. Sac state, for example, is stronger with Thomson at QB. They are still a good team without him, but they are better with him.

[Professor Chaos]

Your scenario could easily pan out. If so it does create quite the tangle. I'm not even going to try to sort it out.

However, I will say I'm not sure that Illinois State or No. Iowa should be considered for the seeds. I know I'll catch crap for this. Being MVFC teams they get undue love and may be seeded. Just not sure they deserve it. You have a four loss No Iowa dropping a game the week before selections, and the highlight of their season was the FBS loss back in August. Then you have Ill State with one quality win (So Dakota State).

Honestly in your scenario I'd say one or the other might be worth the #8 seed but neither would necessarily be worthy of any more.
Well if UNI's win over Illinois St isnt a quality win than Montana doesn't have a quality win yet either. At 8-4 UNI doesn't have a very strong resume for a seed but I'd say they'd look pretty good compared to a 9-3 Furman, Central Arkansas, or Villanova. I suppose you could throw a 10-2 Monmouth into that conversation as well but I like a 8-4 UNI over all of them.

[Professor Chaos]

Given that all 6 teams would have wins over other teams in the group and no FCS losses outside of that group, those resumes are probably better than Furman's. However, the Valley is NOT going to get 4 of 8 seeds, with the Big Sky getting an additional 3. Not happening. The loser of the UNI-SDSU game will give up their seed to Furman. Wins/losses of those 6 teams assuming UM and SDSU wins (excluding FBS/NDSU):

Weber - wins over UNI and Sac State, loss to UM; 2-1 among the group
UM - win over Weber, loss to Sac State; 1-1 among the group
Sac State - win over UM, loss to Weber; 1-1 among the group
ISU-r - win over SDSU, loss to UNI; 1-1 among the group
SDSU - win over UNI, loss to ISUr; 1-1 among the group
UNI - win over ISU-r, losses to Weber and SDSU; 1-2 among the group; can't see that being good enough to get the Valley a 4th seed.

Conversely, if UNI beats SDSU:
SDSU - NO wins, losses to ISU-r and UNI; 0-2 among the group; no way that gets them a seed, especially going 2-3 over their last 5 games.
UNI - wins over ISU-r and SDSU, loss to Weber; 2-1 among the group

I see no path for the loser of SDSU-UNI getting a seed, especially when the MVFC already has 3 others.
SDSU also played NDSU much better than either UNI or Illinois St did. I think they're the 2nd seed in the Valley if they beat UNI.

I'd agree that if SDSU loses to UNI they'd have virtually no shot at a seed. They'd probably even need to beat USD in week 13 just to make the playoffs.


Crazy that multiple 4 loss teams could be considered for seeds this year.
UNI is the only 4 loss team I think has a legit shot at a seed unless there's some pandemonium these last 2 weeks. I guess Weber would have a better case if they drop both of their last 2 but it's highly unlikely they lose their finale against Idaho St.

[Grizzlies82]

Well if UNI's win over Illinois St isnt a quality win than Montana doesn't have a quality win yet either. At 8-4 UNI doesn't have a very strong resume for a seed but I'd say they'd look pretty good compared to a 9-3 Furman, Central Arkansas, or Villanova. I suppose you could throw a 10-2 Monmouth into that conversation as well but I like a 8-4 UNI over all of them.


Professor,
In your scenario Montana would have wins over a playoff team (Monmouth), still potentially playoff team (UC Davis), current #3 team (Weber State), and current #10 team Montana State. The only two losses would be to current #6 Sacramento State and current FBS #6 Oregon Ducks. All in all a fairly impressive resume. Yet two of those games are yet to be played. So we will see if your scenario plays out.

If I give you No Iowa beating Illinois State as a good win. Now we're assuming they lose to So Dakota State. Then Panthers will have lost 3 out of 4 quality teams they've played. Definitely not saying they're a bad team. Just saying in that case they don't belong in the top 8.

I agree with the earlier poster that the UNI / SDSU game is a "seeding elimination game" with winner getting a seed and the loser an at large berth.

Illinois State beating So Dakota State and doing so decisively is a good win. I'm just not seeing other 'good' wins in their schedule. The Red Birds have already lost 2 out of 3 quality teams they've played. Maybe they deserve an #8 seed but can't see much beyond that.

[JayJ79]

Take a dice and assign each team a #. Roll the dice, whatever team's number comes up is #3. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #4. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #5. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #6. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #7. Roll again, whatever team's number comes up is #8. Keep rolling if you ever get a team's number that has already been selected. Done!
when seeding is "too close to call", I could see the committee assigning seeds to possibly create "bus trips" in the quarterfinal round, if there is such a possibility. even though that sucks because it means certain teams always get slated to meet certain other teams should both teams win their round-of-16 games

[Professor Chaos]

Professor,
In your scenario Montana would have wins over a playoff team (Monmouth), still potentially playoff team (UC Davis), current #3 team (Weber State), and current #10 team Montana State. The only two losses would be to current #6 Sacramento State and current FBS #6 Oregon Ducks. All in all a fairly impressive resume. Yet two of those games are yet to be played. So we will see if your scenario plays out.

If I give you No Iowa beating Illinois State as a good win. Now we're assuming they lose to So Dakota State. Then Panthers will have lost 3 out of 4 quality teams they've played. Definitely not saying they're a bad team. Just saying in that case they don't belong in the top 8.

I agree with the earlier poster that the UNI / SDSU game is a "seeding elimination game" with winner getting a seed and the loser an at large berth.

Illinois State beating So Dakota State and doing so decisively is a good win. I'm just not seeing other 'good' wins in their schedule. The Red Birds have already lost 2 out of 3 quality teams they've played. Maybe they deserve an #8 seed but can't see much beyond that.
The holes you're poking in a potential 9-3 Illinois St and a potential 8-4 UNI for a seed are legit I'm just saying they're still better options than the teams they'll likely be competing with for those 7 and 8 seeds.


when seeding is "too close to call", I could see the committee assigning seeds to possibly create "bus trips" in the quarterfinal round, if there is such a possibility. even though that sucks because it means certain teams always get slated to meet certain other teams should both teams win their round-of-16 games
The seeds are set using an anonymous poll system similar to how the AGS Poll is tabulated so it would take a lot of organization for them to seed regionally. One or two guys "break rank" and it could screw things up so I doubt they even try, or have the time, to organize themselves like that before they vote.

[Chalupa Batman]

I agree. UNI and SDSU are playing for a seed (assuming they win the final game too).

Where do you seed SDSU if they win? Is a 6 seed better for them than a 4 seed and a possible trip to Fargo? If so, the ISUr loss might not be a bad thing.

I also don't think Sac St is a top 4 seed if Weber and UNI win out.


If you're the Jacks you would have to assume you'd playing NDSU for the natty, which would essentially be a true road game (not to mention that NDSU would probably handle the long layoff much better). It also means to win it all they would have to win, likely, at Weber, at JMU, and "at" NDSU (in Fargo south).

Being the 4 seed they would get 1 extra home game before going to Fargo, a short trip to a place they are familiar with, while keeping their regular routine. Much easier said than done of course.

It's close, as both of those paths would be very tough, but I would think they'd rather have the 4 seed as opposed to 6/7 seed. That's assuming they can recover and beat UNI this weekend, which is far from given at this point.

[WileECoyote06]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Central Connecticut. They are not going to place a team with 11 DI wins and no FCS losses in the opening round. I'd bet coin on it. That being said, I think they go down at Duquesne in week 12. If they finish 11 wins, then pencil them in as high as 7.

[ming01]

Yes who wins the NEC if theres a 3 way tiebreaker?

[Professor Chaos]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Central Connecticut. They are not going to place a team with 11 DI wins and no FCS losses in the opening round. I'd bet coin on it. That being said, I think they go down at Duquesne in week 12. If they finish 11 wins, then pencil them in as high as 7.
I have a hard time seeing an 11-1 CCSU seeded. Last year 10-1 Colgate barely snuck into the seeds and they beat two CAA teams out of conference and their only loss was to a 9-2 (at the time - would finish 11-2) Army team. CCSU's schedule and wins are weaker on all fronts this year.


Yes who wins the NEC if theres a 3 way tiebreaker?
Duquesne

https://northeastconference.org/sports/2013/11/10/FB_Tiebreaker_Procedure.aspx

The better question here is does an 10-2 CCSU get an at-large if they drop one of these last two?

[BisonTru]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Central Connecticut. They are not going to place a team with 11 DI wins and no FCS losses in the opening round. I'd bet coin on it. That being said, I think they go down at Duquesne in week 12. If they finish 11 wins, then pencil them in as high as 7.

Not a chance. Their best OOC win is Fordham and they play in one of the weakest conferences in the country. San Diego deserves a look before CCU.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cx500d]

I have a hard time seeing an 11-1 CCSU seeded. Last year 10-1 Colgate barely snuck into the seeds and they beat two CAA teams out of conference and their only loss was to a 9-2 (at the time - would finish 11-2) Army team. CCSU's schedule and wins are weaker on all fronts this year.


Duquesne

https://northeastconference.org/sports/2013/11/10/FB_Tiebreaker_Procedure.aspx

The better question here is does an 10-2 CCSU get an at-large if they drop one of these last two?

i think they should.

[kalm]

I have a hard time seeing an 11-1 CCSU seeded. Last year 10-1 Colgate barely snuck into the seeds and they beat two CAA teams out of conference and their only loss was to a 9-2 (at the time - would finish 11-2) Army team. CCSU's schedule and wins are weaker on all fronts this year.


Duquesne

https://northeastconference.org/sports/2013/11/10/FB_Tiebreaker_Procedure.aspx

The better question here is does an 10-2 CCSU get an at-large if they drop one of these last two?

Not with Davis’s schedule. ;)

[Redbird 4th & short]

Your scenario could easily pan out. If so it does create quite the tangle. I'm not even going to try to sort it out.

However, I will say I'm not sure that Illinois State or No. Iowa should be considered for the seeds. I know I'll catch crap for this. Being MVFC teams they get undue love and may be seeded. Just not sure they deserve it. You have a four loss No Iowa dropping a game the week before selections, and the highlight of their season was the FBS loss back in August. Then you have Ill State with one quality win (So Dakota State).

Honestly in your scenario I'd say one or the other might be worth the #8 seed but neither would necessarily be worthy of any more.

I think I get and agree with your point, but not your conclusion ... there is decent drop off after top 6 or 7. But if SDSU beats UNI in a close game, and ISUr wins out, I say were both cetetinaly top 10, which means on bubble for top 8. Assuming no upsets, here is how I see it

Top 5 are in real good shape; the only one that realistically could fall out is MOntana because they have toughest remaining schedule. If they go 1-1, I think they get 5th seed with 9-3 record and tough SOS .. thinking they will have #1 SOS after 12 games.

1. 10-0 NDSU .. lock, 2 very winnable games left
2. 9-1 JMU .. lock, 2 very winable games left
3. 8-2 Weber .. lock at 3 if they go 2-0, still top 6 if they go 1-1; but they have game at Montana, plus easier game; zero FCS losses so far, 2 quality FBS losses will help
4. 8-2 Sac St .. lock if they win 2, unless SDSU wins 2 .. then toss up; easiest remaining 2 games of all top teams
5. 8-2 Montana .. sitting pretty but have 2 very tough games; Weber and at Mont St, so they could slip some, but still top 8 if they go 1-1

Next 3 are most vulnerable .. could move up. more likley to move down or get disapponited by committee decision:

6. 7-3 SDSU .. still in good shape .. win over UNI will make them a lock even move up a bit, loss could push them out. I think they are more likely to edge out UNI and move up a slot or 2, assuming Montana goes 1-1, and if Sac St continues on their less impressive trendline the last 2 games.
7. 7-3 UNI .. in good shape but have game at SDSU, so they could drop to 8 or lower with loss; if it's a close loss they probably still deserve a seed, but may not get one; if they beat SDSU on road, they will certainly move up some .. tougher SOS than SDSU.
8. 7-3 ISUr ... on thinnest ice of these 3, but have fairly easy schedule remaining; MoST and at YSU. YSU was competitive but are clearly slipping as we get deeper into season; so if we win out 9-3 in MVFC with all these 4 and 5 loss teams, has to be a top 8 seed.

Basically if SDSU barely beats UNI and ISUr wins out, I think there is chance we get 4 bids, but would be surprised if committee allowed it. But if Montana St wins both remaining tough games, they would have to be in mix with ISUr or UNI for the 7th and 8th spot, and woudl probably get in over 8-4 UNI, possibly over 9-3 ISUr due to tougher SOS.

Best Furman can do is 8-3 due to non D-I game in week 12 and with their SOS, I don't see how they get in over all 3 teams vying for last 2 spots.

Just not seeing 7-3 Villanova or 6-4 Towson or 5-4 UNH breaking thru at this point. Towson has easiest remaining schedule.

[Professor Chaos]

I think I get and agree with your point, but not your conclusion ... there is decent drop off after top 6 or 7. But if SDSU beats UNI in a close game, and ISUr wins out, I say were both cetetinaly top 10, which means on bubble for top 8. Assuming no upsets, here is how I see it

Top 5 are in real good shape; the only one that realistically could fall out is MOntana because they have toughest remaining schedule. If they go 1-1, I think they get 5th seed with 9-3 record and tough SOS .. thinking they will have #1 SOS after 12 games.

1. 10-0 NDSU .. lock, 2 very winnable games left
2. 9-1 JMU .. lock, 2 very winable games left
3. 8-2 Weber .. lock at 3 if they go 2-0, still top 6 if they go 1-1; but they have game at Montana, plus easier game; zero FCS losses so far, 2 quality FBS losses will help
4. 8-2 Sac St .. lock if they win 2, unless SDSU wins 2 .. then toss up; easiest remaining 2 games of all top teams
5. 8-2 Montana .. sitting pretty but have 2 very tough games; Weber and at Mont St, so they could slip some, but still top 8 if they go 1-1

Next 3 are most vulnerable .. could move up. more likley to move down or get disapponited by committee decision:

6. 7-3 SDSU .. still in good shape .. win over UNI will make them a lock even move up a bit, loss could push them out. I think they are more likely to edge out UNI and move up a slot or 2, assuming Montana goes 1-1, and if Sac St continues on their less impressive trendline the last 2 games.
7. 7-3 UNI .. in good shape but have game at SDSU, so they could drop to 8 or lower with loss; if it's a close loss they probably still deserve a seed, but may not get one; if they beat SDSU on road, they will certainly move up some .. tougher SOS than SDSU.
8. 7-3 ISUr ... on thinnest ice of these 3, but have fairly easy schedule remaining; MoST and at YSU. YSU was competitive but are clearly slipping as we get deeper into season; so if we win out 9-3 in MVFC with all these 4 and 5 loss teams, has to be a top 8 seed.

Basically if SDSU barely beats UNI and ISUr wins out, I think there is chance we get 4 bids, but would be surprised if committee allowed it. But if Montana St wins both remaining tough games, they would have to be in mix with ISUr or UNI for the 7th and 8th spot, and woudl probably get in over 8-4 UNI, possibly over 9-3 ISUr due to tougher SOS.

Best Furman can do is 8-3 due to non D-I game in week 12 and with their SOS, I don't see how they get in over all 3 teams vying for last 2 spots.

Just not seeing 7-3 Villanova or 6-4 Towson or 5-4 UNH breaking thru at this point. Towson has easiest remaining schedule.
I think Furman is the most likely team outside the Big Sky and MVFC to get into the seeds in that scenario. The problem I have with them is it seems the main argument being made for them is "they're not in the Big Sky or MVFC". That's pretty flimsy.

But who knows, a lot of big games are happening tomorrow involving these teams in the Big Sky, MVFC, and SOCON. The hypotheticals should be less complicated in about 36 hours.

[MSUBobcat]

I think I get and agree with your point, but not your conclusion ... there is decent drop off after top 6 or 7. But if SDSU beats UNI in a close game, and ISUr wins out, I say were both cetetinaly top 10, which means on bubble for top 8. Assuming no upsets, here is how I see it

Top 5 are in real good shape; the only one that realistically could fall out is MOntana because they have toughest remaining schedule. If they go 1-1, I think they get 5th seed with 9-3 record and tough SOS .. thinking they will have #1 SOS after 12 games.

1. 10-0 NDSU .. lock, 2 very winnable games left
2. 9-1 JMU .. lock, 2 very winable games left
3. 8-2 Weber .. lock at 3 if they go 2-0, still top 6 if they go 1-1; but they have game at Montana, plus easier game; zero FCS losses so far, 2 quality FBS losses will help
4. 8-2 Sac St .. lock if they win 2, unless SDSU wins 2 .. then toss up; easiest remaining 2 games of all top teams
5. 8-2 Montana .. sitting pretty but have 2 very tough games; Weber and at Mont St, so they could slip some, but still top 8 if they go 1-1

Next 3 are most vulnerable .. could move up. more likley to move down or get disapponited by committee decision:

6. 7-3 SDSU .. still in good shape .. win over UNI will make them a lock even move up a bit, loss could push them out. I think they are more likely to edge out UNI and move up a slot or 2, assuming Montana goes 1-1, and if Sac St continues on their less impressive trendline the last 2 games.
7. 7-3 UNI .. in good shape but have game at SDSU, so they could drop to 8 or lower with loss; if it's a close loss they probably still deserve a seed, but may not get one; if they beat SDSU on road, they will certainly move up some .. tougher SOS than SDSU.
8. 7-3 ISUr ... on thinnest ice of these 3, but have fairly easy schedule remaining; MoST and at YSU. YSU was competitive but are clearly slipping as we get deeper into season; so if we win out 9-3 in MVFC with all these 4 and 5 loss teams, has to be a top 8 seed.

Basically if SDSU barely beats UNI and ISUr wins out, I think there is chance we get 4 bids, but would be surprised if committee allowed it. But if Montana St wins both remaining tough games, they would have to be in mix with ISUr or UNI for the 7th and 8th spot, and woudl probably get in over 8-4 UNI, possibly over 9-3 ISUr due to tougher SOS.

Best Furman can do is 8-3 due to non D-I game in week 12 and with their SOS, I don't see how they get in over all 3 teams vying for last 2 spots.

Just not seeing 7-3 Villanova or 6-4 Towson or 5-4 UNH breaking thru at this point. Towson has easiest remaining schedule.

If UNI loses, they would be 1-3 against top FCS teams, with the games against NDSU and WSU not being very competitive. I don't see how the committee would give the Valley a 4th seed with that track record. Like the Professor said, things will likely become quite a bit clearer by Sunday morning. Those teams on the "seed" bubble may drop off and then the UNI-SDSU loser would get renewed life.

[Professor Chaos]

If UNI loses, they would be 1-3 against top FCS teams, with the games against NDSU and WSU not being very competitive. I don't see how the committee would give the Valley a 4th seed with that track record. Like the Professor said, things will likely become quite a bit clearer by Sunday morning. Those teams on the "seed" bubble may drop off and then the UNI-SDSU loser would get renewed life.
Here's the crazy thing about this group of teams: NDSU, JMU, Weber St, UNI, Montana, Sac St, Illinois St, and SDSU. They are currently 56-0 vs FCS teams from outside of that group of 8 teams. You have any win over a team in that group, which UNI already does, it looks awfully good right now IMO.

[uni88]

If UNI loses, they would be 1-3 against top FCS teams, with the games against NDSU and WSU not being very competitive. I don't see how the committee would give the Valley a 4th seed with that track record. Like the Professor said, things will likely become quite a bit clearer by Sunday morning. Those teams on the "seed" bubble may drop off and then the UNI-SDSU loser would get renewed life.

I don't think I would say that UNI wasn't very competitive against Weber. Weber played great and UNI played like crap for the first 10 minutes and the score was 17-0. UNI got their head out of their azz and it was very competitive from that point forward with a final score of 29-17.

[Reign of Terrier]

What if Furman loses? Who's getting that other seed? Nova? xsmhx


Another factor that may (or may not) affect seeding is how a team ends the season. End the season on a winning streak may look better than team that does not.
A team's strength may change as the season progresses. Sac state, for example, is stronger with Thomson at QB. They are still a good team without him, but they are better with him.

I'm telling y'all: if Wofford beats Furman tomorrow in Spartanburg and wins @The citadel next week, Wofford has an excellent chance at a seed. They would have an 8 game winning streak against the FCS.

Only NDSU, JMU, Weber, CCSU and San Diego would have a comparable streak. I would not be surprised if a Wofford win against furman this week catapults us into the top 13 or so and some craziness in the top 8 has teams drop.

It's a big if because both Furman and the Citadel are good teams (both may be ranked when Wofford plays), but I think if they pull that off they would have a good argument for a 7 or 8 seed, again, pending chaos. But beating two ranked teams (or at least one and another ORV) in the last two weeks of the year will give us a much better resume than CCSU IMO.

[MSUBobcat]

I don't think I would say that UNI wasn't very competitive against Weber. Weber played great and UNI played like crap for the first 10 minutes and the score was 17-0. UNI got their head out of their azz and it was very competitive from that point forward with a final score of 29-17.

I guess it depends on how you define "competitive". Down 17-0 after 10 minutes, then trade FG's the remainder of the 1st quarter to go end still down 17. Weber scored a TD first in the 2nd, spreading the lead to 24 before being answered before the half to end still down 17. Weber gets only points in 3rd on a safety to expand the lead to 19. UNI gets a TD late in the 4th to bring it back down to a 12 point final margin. Weber was up by AT LEAST 2 TD from ten minutes into the game all the way until there was only 4 minutes remaining and was down as many as 24 at one point in the 2nd quarter. Scoring by quarter: 20-3, 7-7, 2-0, and finally 0-7 with the game already decided.

So... competitive?? Perhaps. Threatened Weber? Not so much.

[uni88]

I guess it depends on how you define "competitive". Down 17-0 after 10 minutes, then trade FG's the remainder of the 1st quarter to go end still down 17. Weber scored a TD first in the 2nd, spreading the lead to 24 before being answered before the half to end still down 17. Weber gets only points in 3rd on a safety to expand the lead to 19. UNI gets a TD late in the 4th to bring it back down to a 12 point final margin. Weber was up by AT LEAST 2 TD from ten minutes into the game all the way until there was only 4 minutes remaining and was down as many as 24 at one point in the 2nd quarter. Scoring by quarter: 20-3, 7-7, 2-0, and finally 0-7 with the game already decided.

So... competitive?? Perhaps. Threatened Weber? Not so much.

Weber had a great 10 minutes (73 yd TD pass on 1st play, recovered fumble on KO & kicked FG, and an Int that led to a 38 yd TD drive). UNI absolutely shut Weber down in the 2nd half (they had -6 yards) and their MVP in the 2nd half was their punter. UNI outgained Weber 384 yards to 285 (more than a quarter of which came on the 1st play) and had 19 first downs to Weber's 14. UNI didn't win but they were competitive and their chances in a rematch wouldn't be much below 50%.

[Professor Chaos]

Just realized I misunderstood the NEC site breaking down the tie breaker scenarios (https://northeastconference.org/sports/2013/11/10/FB_Tiebreaker_Procedure.aspx). If CCSU, RMU, and Duquesne finish in a 3 way tie at 5-1 then the tie breaker comes down to who gave up the fewest points in their head-to-head matchups with each other. So far the only matchup between them has been a 41-21 win by RMU over Duquesne. So seems like Duquesne is in trouble if it comes down to that.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned Central Connecticut. They are not going to place a team with 11 DI wins and no FCS losses in the opening round. I'd bet coin on it. That being said, I think they go down at Duquesne in week 12. If they finish 11 wins, then pencil them in as high as 7.

I mentioned it! I think CCSU a great shot at the 8 seed if they finish 11-1. My reasoning is more political than merit.

[aceinthehole]

Unless CCSU can make big statements in their final 2 games, I put the odds of Central Connecticut getting a seed at less than 10%. We just don't have the SOS needed and as close as it was, we lost to EMU.

On the other hand, if Central Connecticut drops 1 of their last 2 games and finish the season at 10-2 (6-1 NEC), then I think they have a greater than 90% of an at-large bid.

[Redbird 4th & short]

There is a very good reason CCSU is #28 on Massey Composite ... not just a very weak SOS, but many weak margins against that weak SOS.

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1372&s=308075

[Gangtackle11]

No disrespect to CCSU, but they aren’t getting a seed. They lose to Robert Morris and there may be a case they get left out. xpeacex