AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 11 2019

[superman7515]

Just waiting on UC Davis to finish up their game and for recaps to get posted, but figured I'd get things rolling early so you folks can get a jump on it and have an early night.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14zfhyqSPgjqIoK1FfErbuX-qUTYElHBGuAdhnj9X3so/edit?usp=sharing

If you notice any errors, let me know. And of course, take your time with your ballot to cut down on the errors for Ursus.

[Daytripper]

All of the relevant games are done by 7 pm central....
https://media.giphy.com/media/l0MYt5jPR6QX5pnqM/giphy.gif

[ST_Lawson]

All of the relevant games are done by 7 pm central....

Hell, even all the big FBS games are wrapped up too. No ranked vs ranked, unlikely to be any upsets (now that I say that probably NC State will somehow beat Clemson).

Gotta be nice for you guys who do the voting. Get your work done early. Thanks for all you do.

[caribbeanhen]

now maybe AGS will finally get Dartmouth over Princeton

[Preferred Walk-On]

now maybe AGS will finally get Dartmouth over Princeton

Maybe.


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[Bisonator]

now maybe AGS will finally get Dartmouth over Princeton
Sure I've got them 26 and 27 respectively.:D

[FormerPokeCenter]

I'd laugh at that, but both would still be higher than my Cowboys...

[superman7515]

Everything is updated.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

How is there almost nothing going on in here this week?

So, what is the thought on KSU vs. Monmouth on this week's ballots?

I guarantee you that if you have KSU over them you will defend it this week so be ready if that is what you are going with.

[Professor Chaos]

I hit a brick wall after #11 in my poll ballot this week. I struggled with what to do with the Montana St/SHSU/UND triumvirate as well as where the rest of the CAA fits in after JMU.

One thing I'll say preemptively is take a hard look at Austin Peay and SEMO against each other. I've been surprised to see how many people have SEMO ranked ahead of Austin Peay and in a lot of cases significantly ahead. They have identical 7-3 (5-1) records but Peay has the head-to-head win and better MOVs against the second tier of OVC teams (UT Martin, Jacksonville St, Tennessee Tech) than SEMO does. I know the argument to hold Peay down is those bad losses to ETSU and Tennessee St (who SEMO crushed last week) but I think they've shown enough with quality wins elsewhere to discount those somewhat.

[caribbeanhen]

How does top 10 Central Arky lose to an unranked Southeast La of Hammond 34-0..... ?

SLA is going to bet a big boost

[Reign of Terrier]

Did Central Arkansas downgrade themselves to a bubble team with the loss to SELA? I'm inclined to think so.

I can't remember the last time a top 10 team got shut out and blown out to a nonranked team

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[ursus arctos horribilis]

Did Central Arkansas downgrade themselves to a bubble team with the loss to SELA? I'm inclined to think so.

I can't remember the last time a top 10 team got shut out and blown out to a nonranked team

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Yeah, that one is going to be all over the map I am sure.

[Professor Chaos]

Did Central Arkansas downgrade themselves to a bubble team with the loss to SELA? I'm inclined to think so.

I can't remember the last time a top 10 team got shut out and blown out to a nonranked team

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I don't even think they're close to the bubble. They're still 7-3 and they still have one of only 3 FBS wins in the entire subdivision and a really good non-conference win over Austin Peay. Add to that some solid wins in conference against SHSU and McNeese and they've done enough IMO to be worthy of an at-large even if they drop one more in their last two.

I do think they've knocked themselves out of the seed conversation for good. This isn't the first time they've laid an egg against a bubble team. They lost by 20 to Nicholls a few weeks back. It didn't look so bad at the time since Nicholls was a top 10 team then but it sure doesn't look very good right now.

[Reign of Terrier]

I don't even think they're close to the bubble. They're still 7-3 and they still have one of only 3 FBS wins in the entire subdivision and a really good non-conference win over Austin Peay. Add to that some solid wins in conference against SHSU and McNeese and they've done enough IMO to be worthy of an at-large even if they drop one more in their last two.

I do think they've knocked themselves out of the seed conversation for good. This isn't the first time they've laid an egg against a bubble team. They lost by 20 to Nicholls a few weeks back. It didn't look so bad at the time since Nicholls was a top 10 team then but it sure doesn't look very good right now.That's true, I've forgotten about AP. I think we are going to have another 2017 McNeese situation. I can see the Southland getting 3, but 4 would be a stretch. Right now I have UCA/SELA/Nicholls/McNeese/SHSU on the bubble but I see at least one (McNeese) getting knocked out. I think one of UCA/SELA/Nicholls/SHSU could be left home, even if they win out.

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[Katfan]

That's true, I've forgotten about AP. I think we are going to have another 2017 McNeese situation. I can see the Southland getting 3, but 4 would be a stretch. Right now I have UCA/SELA/Nicholls/McNeese/SHSU on the bubble but I see at least one (McNeese) getting knocked out. I think one of UCA/SELA/Nicholls/SHSU could be left home, even if they win out.

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Nicholls and SELA play each other. So someone drops a game. I think UCA is pretty banged up with injuries

[lionsrking2]

How does top 10 Central Arky lose to an unranked Southeast La of Hammond 34-0..... ?

SLA is going to bet a big boost

We got lucky.

[caribbeanhen]

We got lucky.

didn't look that way to me...

[Daytripper]

Did Central Arkansas downgrade themselves to a bubble team with the loss to SELA? I'm inclined to think so.

I can't remember the last time a top 10 team got shut out and blown out to a nonranked team

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Just this year SHSU beat a top 10 Nicholls 17-0. The Southland is absolutely insane this year.

[lionsrking2]

didn't look that way to me...

We're pretty good when we're healthy and don't turn the ball over.

[BEAR]

We're pretty good when we're healthy and don't turn the ball over.

As I've said in another thread or two UCA is banged up like every other team but probably has no answer if a team throws on them. Look at Nicholls, Hawaii, and SLU. All passing teams. Having said that I don't care if we go post-season because of that and if you watched the game our QB and WRs aren't even on the same page! Only one home game left against SFA. I'm gonna enjoy it no matter what.

[Go Green]

now maybe AGS will finally get Dartmouth over Princeton

Yeah- that was bugging me all year as well. Wasn't much I could do except be patient and wait for the actual game...

Kudos to those who had Dartmouth over Princeton on their ballots prior to this week. To be honest, I thought we'd win by more than 17, but I'll take it!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

- Austin Peay and SELA were my biggest climbers this week
- I have Dartmouth as a semifinalist type team
- The OVC and SoCon appear to have two worthy teams, but how worthy?
- I value CCSU's ability to win
- Not a good week for the HBCU's with A&T and Alcorn State dropping out of my poll
- In the CAA I have JMU at the penultimate spot then.........................................the next CAA team.

[McNeese75]

That's true, I've forgotten about AP. I think we are going to have another 2017 McNeese situation. I can see the Southland getting 3, but 4 would be a stretch. Right now I have UCA/SELA/Nicholls/McNeese/SHSU on the bubble but I see at least one (McNeese) getting knocked out. I think one of UCA/SELA/Nicholls/SHSU could be left home, even if they win out.

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So if McNeese beats Nicholls and Lamar, ends up 8-4 and has wins over them and SLU they are out? Just a question. I do not think ending up 8-4 is a stretch but I probably only see 2 SLC teams in (SHSU and UCA) and of course none seeded. If SLU wins out in that scenario then they are the 3rd team (bubble).

[uni88]

I don't even think they're close to the bubble. They're still 7-3 and they still have one of only 3 FBS wins in the entire subdivision and a really good non-conference win over Austin Peay. Add to that some solid wins in conference against SHSU and McNeese and they've done enough IMO to be worthy of an at-large even if they drop one more in their last two.

I do think they've knocked themselves out of the seed conversation for good. This isn't the first time they've laid an egg against a bubble team. They lost by 20 to Nicholls a few weeks back. It didn't look so bad at the time since Nicholls was a top 10 team then but it sure doesn't look very good right now.

Plus the Western Kentucky win is better than a Georgia Tech win.

[ElCid]

Plus the Western Kentucky win is better than a Georgia Tech win.

Hah......no. Sorry Charlie. Ga Tech is a bit down as they transition their O, but they have only been blown out by Clemson. The P5 win is still better, especially over a storied program. It may be arguable, but I'm not going to split computer ranking hairs. GaTech has split their two games against G5 teams and beaten Miami. But it makes little difference since we blew a couple games we should have won when our QB was a bit gimpy. Now we have made it hard on ourselves. IF we win out at 8-4, with that P5 win, three one score losses with one in OT, I think we are good. After beating VMI for over 15 years in a row, we pick this year to stumble. They always play us tough for obvious reasons, but they are actually a bit better this year as well. But getting by an improving Chattanooga and a much improved Wofford will be no easy task. Still a bunch of ball to be played before comparing the end products in any event.

[lionsrking2]

So if McNeese beats Nicholls and Lamar, ends up 8-4 and has wins over them and SLU they are out? Just a question. I do not think ending up 8-4 is a stretch but I probably only see 2 SLC teams in (SHSU and UCA) and of course none seeded. If SLU wins out in that scenario then they are the 3rd team (bubble).

The Southland will get three teams in. Which three is still to be determined.

[uni88]

Hah......no. Sorry Charlie. Ga Tech is a bit down as they transition their O, but they have only been blown out by Clemson. The P5 win is still better, especially over a storied program. It may be arguable, but I'm not going to split computer ranking hairs. GaTech has split their two games against G5 teams and beaten Miami. But it makes little difference since we blew a couple games we should have won when our QB was a bit gimpy. Now we have made it hard on ourselves. IF we win out at 8-4, with that P5 win, three one score losses with one in OT, I think we are good. After beating VMI for over 15 years in a row, we pick this year to stumble. They always play us tough for obvious reasons, but they are actually a bit better this year as well. But getting by an improving Chattanooga and a much improved Wofford will be no easy task. Still a bunch of ball to be played before comparing the end products in any event.

You're entitle to your opinion.

Does the ACC still qualify as a P5 conference in 2019? Or is it really just Clemson and the little sisters of the poor?

[Reign of Terrier]

You're entitle to your opinion.

Does the ACC still qualify as a P5 conference in 2019? Or is it really just Clemson and the little sisters of the poor?Yes and Yes.

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[NOLA]

As I've said in another thread or two UCA is banged up like every other team but probably has no answer if a team throws on them. Look at Nicholls, Hawaii, and SLU. All passing teams. Having said that I don't care if we go post-season because of that and if you watched the game our QB and WRs aren't even on the same page! Only one home game left against SFA. I'm gonna enjoy it no matter what.

WHAT?!? I don’t remember the last time the Colonels finished in the top half of the conference in passing. Hell, it may have never happened. Even with Fourcade, UCA was one of his few 300 yard games in his 100 career starts. They run the ball and run some more. That’s why they struggle against McNeese, and Sam Houston this year. Passing team. That’s funny.

[BEAR]

WHAT?!? I don’t remember the last time the Colonels finished in the top half of the conference in passing. Hell, it may have never happened. Even with Fourcade, UCA was one of his few 300 yard games in his 100 career starts. They run the ball and run some more. That’s why they struggle against McNeese, and Sam Houston this year. Passing team. That’s funny.

All passing teams for our game to be precise.

[Outsider1]

The Southland will get three teams in. Which three is still to be determined.

I was saying no earlier, but I think the ties are forcing decisions. You are correct on the "who" question. It will be interesting.