Selection Committee’s Top 10 (11/6)

[katss07]

Not sure if this deserves it’s own thread separate from the Bracketology one, but if it does might as well get the ball rolling.

The wonderful FCS Playoff Committee will release their Top 10 tomorrow at the half of Ohio vs Miami on ESPN2. With all of the movement at the top of the rankings, it’ll be interesting to see who they have. How high will JSU be ranked this year?

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber
4. SDSU
5. Sac St
6. UNI
7. UCA
8. Montana
9. Furman
10. UNH

[TheKingpin28]

IMO, the top 8 should be:

1: NDSU
2: JMU/SDSU/WSU
3: JMU/SDSU/WSU
4: JMU/SDSU
5: Sac St/UNI
6: Sac St/UM/UNI
7: UM/UNI
8: UCA

After that, I could see this:

9: Furman/ISUr
10: Furman/ISUr/MSU
11: Furman/ISUr/MSU

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My 2$:

1. NDSU
2. Weber State
3. JMU
4. SDSU
5. UNI
6. Sac State
7. Montana
8. UCA
9. Furman
10. Ill State

[MayorOfHenTown]

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber State
4. SDSU
5. Montana
6. UNI
7. Sac State
8. UCA
9. Furman
10. Illinois State

[MR. CHICKEN]

MIAMI OH @ OHIO
8 PM EASTERN
ESPN2

[Derby City Duke]

How I think it should look:

1. North Dakota State
2. Weber State
3. James Madison
4. South Dakota State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Sac State
7. Montana
8. Central Arkansas
9. Furman
10. Illinois State

How I think it will look:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. WSU
4. SDSU
5. Sac State
6. UNI
7. UCA
8. Montana
9. Furman
10. Kennesaw State

[Reign of Terrier]

I know they play in the valley and all that but please explain to me what ISU-R gets that sort of love xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

How I think it should look:

1. North Dakota State
2. Weber State
3. James Madison
4. South Dakota State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Sac State
7. Montana
8. Central Arkansas
9. Furman
10. Illinois State

How I think it will look:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. WSU
4. SDSU
5. Sac State
6. UNI
7. UCA
8. Montana
9. Furman
10. Kennesaw State
Oh man... if this happens it might break AGS. xlolx


I know they play in the valley and all that but please explain to me what ISU-R gets that sort of love xlolx
Lack of options below them... IMO neither Furman or Illinois St should be top 10 teams but they've got the least amount of ugliness on their resumes after the top 8.

[Derby City Duke]

Oh man... if this happens it might break AGS. xlolx




Committees are funny animals. Like my dad used to tell me, "Son, a zebra is a horse designed by a committee."

[WileECoyote06]

Oh man... if this happens it might break AGS. xlolx


Lack of options below them... IMO neither Furman or Illinois St should be top 10 teams but they've got the least amount of ugliness on their resumes after the top 8.

Well people should get their 'crying tissue' ready. xcoffeex

[Redbird 4th & short]

Oh man... if this happens it might break AGS. xlolx


Lack of options below them... IMO neither Furman or Illinois St should be top 10 teams but they've got the least amount of ugliness on their resumes after the top 8.

can't disagree with Reign on this one .. or Professor Chaos. I would place us anywhere from 12 to 15. BUt Professor is not wrong .. many teams have many losses to lesser teams than we do. We are the least ugly !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[semobison]

can't disagree with Reign on this one .. or Professor Chaos. I would place us anywhere from 12 to 15. BUt Professor is not wrong .. many teams have many losses to lesser teams than we do. We are the least ugly !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Redbirds may have a top 10 defense but they also have a bottom 10 passing offense. If they could throw the ball at all they would be dangerous!

[caribbeanhen]

The Redbirds may have a top 10 defense but they also have a bottom 10 passing offense. If they could throw the ball at all they would be dangerous!

this was my impression that I posted after watching some of the Illinois State Indiana State game, always risky making judgement after 30 minutes of football unless you trust your eyes....

[Daytripper]

My opinion:
1. NDSU
2. Weber
3. xconfusedx
4. xconfusedx
5. xconfusedx
6. xconfusedx
7. xconfusedx
8. xconfusedx
9. xconfusedx
10. xconfusedx

[CappinHard]

My opinion:
1. NDSU
2. Weber
3. xconfusedx
4. xconfusedx
5. xconfusedx
6. xconfusedx
7. xconfusedx
8. xconfusedx
9. xconfusedx
10. xconfusedx

I feel like you can be pretty confident in naming the first 4, not just the first 2.

[BEAR]

MIAMI OH @ OHIO
8 PM ESPN2

Thank you for that! xthumbsupx

[Redbird 4th & short]

The Redbirds may have a top 10 defense but they also have a bottom 10 passing offense. If they could throw the ball at all they would be dangerous!
1000% true ... I warned of this before we played a single game. Spack does not understand what it takes to be a QB in MVFC ... he gushed over the current guy last year and this year, but has him on a very short leash. He is great HC, but needs to stay away from the pass offense, OC and QB until 4th quarter. 4th quarter he can take over as appropriate .. until then, let them execute their game plan and do their jobs !!!

We needs to stop playing so scared on offense. It may help us ensure wins against lesser teams ... note, we have been known to not show up and lose a trap game or 2 each year, followed by beating a top 5 or 10 team... this year, no trap losses so far. But we do very little to prepare ourselves to play against top level teams.

This year, we might get away with because our SOS is easiest its been in 10 years .. we could still go 8-4 and not have much in way of quality wins or quality losses. It will get us to playoffs, but it won't help us make a run unless we get a easy 1st round draw. Davis has the talent .. he just lacks the confidence and support from above.

[MacThor]

Kennesaw St. and NC A&T make the list. Book it.

If they throw Dartmouth in there, we'll know they're just messing with us.

[RabidRabbit]

MIAMI OH @ OHIO
8 PM ESPN2


Announcement though is halftime? So, if only interested in FCS top 10 can wait til 9 to tune in?

[ming01]

NDSU and JMU are no doubt 1 and 2. Weber #3.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Announcement though is halftime? So, if only interested in FCS top 10 can wait til 9 to tune in?

.....IFIN' YA DON'T WANNAH WATCH IT...........9PM WILL BE EARLY TA MID 2Q......DEPENDIN' ON TIME STOPPAGES/INCOMPLETE PASSES/RUNNIN' TEAMS...........USUALLY TAKES HOUR AN' HALF...OR SO....FO' UH HALF....BRAWK!

[WrenFGun]

Weber State, Montana, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, James Madison, Northern Iowa, UCA and Sacramento State are the only foregone conclusions for me.

I don't see anything about anyone's resume beyond that to feel confident about a top 10 projection.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Weber State, Montana, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, James Madison, Northern Iowa, UCA and Sacramento State are the only foregone conclusions for me.

I don't see anything about anyone's resume beyond that to feel confident about a top 10 projection.
mostly agree .. too much parity in Southland to get a good read on UCA at this point .. theyre winning a lot of close games over teams near .500 .. sitting 5-1 in Southland, plus had a solid win over FBS WKU, Massey Composite rank is 85th.

Their home & away slate fell nicely into place this year with most of their tougher games at home and easier games on road .. below Massey schedule is sorted by Massey rank .. theyre cannibalizing themselves for sure.





Date



Opponent



Result

PF

PA





Sat 11-0904:00.PM.ET



SE Louisiana (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7314&s=308075)

38(5-3)

58 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074484)

34

31





Sat 10-05

at

Nicholls St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5455&s=308075)

41(5-4)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074479)

14

34





Sat 10-26



Sam Houston St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6981&s=308075)

42(5-4)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074482)

29

25





Sat 10-12



McNeese St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4613&s=308075)

43(6-4)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074480)

40

31





Sat 09-14



Abilene Chr (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=18&s=308075)

49(5-4)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930073727)

31

30





Sat 09-07

at

Austin Peay (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=451&s=308075)

50(6-3)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074037)

24

16





Fri 11-2207:30.PM.ET

at

Incarnate Word (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3473&s=308075)

57(5-4)

65 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074486)

33

28





Sat 11-02

at

Lamar (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3935&s=308075)

71(4-5)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074483)

45

17





Sat 11-1604:00.PM.ET



SF Austin (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7600&s=308075)

87(1-8)

89 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074485)

38

21





Sat 10-19

at

Northwestern LA (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5724&s=308075)

92(1-8)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074481)

31

30





Sat 09-21

at

Hawaii (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3197&s=308075)

(5-5)

L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074478)

16

35





Thu 08-29

at

WKU (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8761&s=308075)

(5-4)

W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074475)

35

28

[katss07]

My (most likely incorrect) predictions.

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber
4. SDSU
5. Sac St
6. UNI
7. UCA
8. Montana
9. NC A&T
10. Furman

[uni88]

.....IFIN' YA DON'T WANNAH WATCH IT...........9PM WILL BE EARLY TA MID 2Q......DEPENDIN' ON TIME STOPPAGES/INCOMPLETE PASSES/RUNNIN' TEAMS...........USUALLY TAKES HOUR AN' HALF...OR SO....FO' UH HALF....BRAWK!

I think that 8pm start is Eastern time so RapidRabbit might want to tune in around 8:30 if he's in the Central.

[BEAR]

mostly agree .. too much parity in Southland to get a good read on UCA at this point .. theyre winning a lot of close games over teams near .500 .. sitting 5-1 in Southland, plus had a solid win over FBS WKU, Massey Composite rank is 85th.

Their home & away slate fell nicely into place this year with most of their tougher games at home and easier games on road .. below Massey schedule is sorted by Massey rank .. theyre cannibalizing themselves for sure.





Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat 11-0904:00.PM.ET

SE Louisiana (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7314&s=308075)
38(5-3)
58 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074484)
34
31



Sat 10-05
at
Nicholls St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5455&s=308075)
41(5-4)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074479)
14
34



Sat 10-26

Sam Houston St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6981&s=308075)
42(5-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074482)
29
25



Sat 10-12

McNeese St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4613&s=308075)
43(6-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074480)
40
31



Sat 09-14

Abilene Chr (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=18&s=308075)
49(5-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930073727)
31
30



Sat 09-07
at
Austin Peay (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=451&s=308075)
50(6-3)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074037)
24
16



Fri 11-2207:30.PM.ET
at
Incarnate Word (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3473&s=308075)
57(5-4)
65 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074486)
33
28



Sat 11-02
at
Lamar (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3935&s=308075)
71(4-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074483)
45
17



Sat 11-1604:00.PM.ET

SF Austin (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7600&s=308075)
87(1-8)
89 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074485)
38
21



Sat 10-19
at
Northwestern LA (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5724&s=308075)
92(1-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074481)
31
30



Sat 09-21
at
Hawaii (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3197&s=308075)
(5-5)
L (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074478)
16
35



Thu 08-29
at
WKU (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8761&s=308075)
(5-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930074475)
35
28





Thats interesting stuff. First 5 of 7 were on the road and two of them were FBS. Despite that and super slow starts they were able to win most of those. That shows the intangible toughness a team needs with that schedule. Three of the teams UCA played were also ranked top 25 in the FCS. It is what it is but I'm confident they are a top 10 team. But I think the turning point was when our leading receiver broke his arm and forced our coaches to spread out the ball to freshman receivers. It opened up our game and we got better!

[MR. CHICKEN]

I think that 8pm start is Eastern time so RapidRabbit might want to tune in around 8:30 if he's in the Central.


....YEAH...MAH REMARKS ARE IN EASTERN TIME.......CONVERT TA YER OWN ZONES......BRAWK!

[Chalupa Batman]

I feel like you can be pretty confident in naming the first 4, not just the first 2.

I agree, the only question is where do they rank Weber and JMU? I think Weber should be ranked 2nd, but JMU will be.

[katss07]

I agree, the only question is where do they rank Weber and JMU? I think Weber should be ranked 2nd, but JMU will be.
Why does Weber need to be ahead of JMU? Simply looking at resume, JMU should be ranked above WSU. Only loss is to WVU which is a Big 12 program. Other than that, they’ve completely demolished their CAA schedule, which features plenty of ranked teams and playoff hopefuls.

From what I have seen, JMU passes the eye test. They have the resume and look like the most complete team in the country outside of Fargo.

[Chalupa Batman]

Why does Weber need to be ahead of JMU? Simply looking at resume, JMU should be ranked above WSU. Only loss is to WVU which is a Big 12 program. Other than that, they’ve completely demolished their CAA schedule, which features plenty of ranked teams and playoff hopefuls.

From what I have seen, JMU passes the eye test. They have the resume and look like the most complete team in the country outside of Fargo.

If you want to say that JMU is better than Weber, that's a very reasonable assessment that I wouldn't waste any time arguing about as I agree they are a very good team. In my view though they are pretty equal which is where resumes come in to play. WSU has 2 wins (UNI and Sac. St.) that are better than JMU's best (Villanova), so I'm not sure how you can say the Dukes have a better resume.

I'm not going to be outraged at all if JMU is 2nd, but IMO the Wildcats have put themselves in front of JMU.

[uni88]

Why does Weber need to be ahead of JMU? Simply looking at resume, JMU should be ranked above WSU. Only loss is to WVU which is a Big 12 program. Other than that, they’ve completely demolished their CAA schedule, which features plenty of ranked teams and playoff hopefuls.

From what I have seen, JMU passes the eye test. They have the resume and look like the most complete team in the country outside of Fargo.

This has been debated in other threads. Does being in the Big 12 make WVU better than San Diego State?

[TennBison]

I would not be surprised to see SDSU at #3 and Weber at #4. I know most people would like to think the selection committee wants to see NDSU vs SDSU in the semi finals for a great rematch (and the low cost of a bus trip). But I don't wonder if they would try to put SDSU back in a rematch with JMU for some possible payback and the chance to see NDSU vs SDSU setup in Frisco.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I would not be surprised to see SDSU at #3 and Weber at #4. I know most people would like to think the selection committee wants to see NDSU vs SDSU in the semi finals for a great rematch (and the low cost of a bus trip). But I don't wonder if they would try to put SDSU back in a rematch with JMU for some possible payback and the chance to see NDSU vs SDSU setup in Frisco.


IMO, this is the last thing they want. 2 teams from the same conference like NDSU/Ill State.

[Professor Chaos]

As much as some may not believe I don't think the committee gives two ****s about seeding multiple teams from the same conference to put them all on the same side of the bracket or the opposite side for that matter.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

As much as some may not believe I don't think the committee gives two ****s about seeding multiple teams from the same conference to put them all on the same side of the bracket or the opposite side for that matter.


All 5 Valley teams on the same side of the bracket a few years ago was a coincidence?

Watching Miami/Ohio is kind of painful waiting for halftime and the reveal.

[Professor Chaos]

All 5 Valley teams on the same side of the bracket a few years ago was a coincidence?

Watching Miami/Ohio is kind of painful waiting for halftime and the reveal.
It happened because Illinois St and NDSU were the #2 and #3 seeds and the regionalization requirements put SDSU and WIU in pods with those two teams. The fact they put UNI in the same side in the pod with #6 seed Portland St was definitely unnecessary but I find it hard to believe it was done that way specifically to avoid another all-MVFC final because UNI wasn't even seeded that year and was ranked outside of the top 10 in all the polls.

Yeah, this is an ugly football game.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

#10 New Hampshire

Didn't see that one coming....xeyebrowx

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

UNH #10? If Holy Cross wins out seed potential?....lol

[TheKingpin28]

New Hampshire?

[Bison56]

UNH at 10?

[Derby City Duke]

Marty Scarano lives!

[Professor Chaos]

New Hampshire at #10???? Wow.

[katss07]

New Hampshire????

[TheKingpin28]

NDSU
JMU
WSU
SDSU
Sac St
UNI
UCA
Montana
Furman
UNH

[Professor Chaos]

Here they were:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber St
4. SDSU
5. Sacramento St
6. UNI
7. Central Arkansas
8. Montana
9. Furman
10. New Hampshire

[Bisonator]

New Hampshire? WTF!

[Derby City Duke]

How I think it will look:

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. WSU
4. SDSU
5. Sac State
6. UNI
7. UCA
8. Montana
9. Furman
10. Kennesaw State

9 of 10, but never saw UNH coming

NDSU
JMU
WSU
SDSU
Sac St
UNI
UCA
Montana
Furman
UNH

[caribbeanhen]

no way... never count Marty out

[FUBeAR]

C’mon, it’s been a over a week since UNH lost a game to an FCS Team with a losing record. They’ve clearly turned the corner!

[Derby City Duke]

Apparently beating Villanova is a really good win...no way UNH is #10; neither is JMU #2 ahead of Weber.

[katss07]

So suddenly JMU/UNH is a Top 10 matchup...

[F'N Hawks]

Both UNH and Furman are head scratchers to me.

[cx500d]

So suddenly JMU/UNH is a Top 10 matchup...
Somebody is going to get a quality loss

[Bisonator]

Somebody remind the committee that 6 CAA teams **** the bed last year we don't need to see that **** again!

[Derby City Duke]

Somebody remind the committee that 6 CAA teams **** the bed last year we don't need to see that **** again!

I still don't think we get more than 3.

[Schism55]

Marty Scarano lives!
****ing lol! You cannot stop him, you can only hope to contain him :D

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Both UNH and Furman are head scratchers to me.


Furman is fine IMO in the top 10.

[F'N Hawks]

Furman is fine IMO in the top 10.
Furman hasn't beat anybody even decent.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's how the polls stacked up:



R

Committee

AGS

Dif

STATS

Dif

Coaches

Dif



1

North Dakota State

North Dakota State

-

North Dakota State

-

North Dakota State

-



2

James Madison

James Madison

-

James Madison

-

James Madison

-



3

Weber State

Weber State

-

Weber State

-

Weber State

-



4

South Dakota State

South Dakota State

-

South Dakota State

-

South Dakota State

-



5

Sacramento State

Northern Iowa

+1

Northern Iowa

+1

Montana

+3



6

Northern Iowa

Montana

+2

Montana

+2

Central Arkansas

+1



7

Central Arkansas

Sacramento State

-2

Central Arkansas

-

Northern Iowa

-1



8

Montana

Central Arkansas

-1

Sacramento State

-3

Sacramento State

-3



9

Furman

Furman

-

Furman

-

Princeton

NR



10

New Hampshire

Illinois State

NR

Princeton

NR

Furman

-1





(20) New Hampshire

-10

(23) New Hampshire

-13

(25) New Hampshire

-15





All 3 were pretty close with the one obvious exception but AGS was a bit closer than the other two (16 total ranks off compared to 19 for STATS and 23 for the Coaches).

[PaladinNation]

I'm excited we're listed at #9 but if I'm honest the Dins are still a work in progress. I can understand some questioning this ranking - we have to prove we belong. We'll find out this week and the next week.

[PaladinFan]

Both UNH and Furman are head scratchers to me.

Furman has won 12 of their last 14 FCS games.

I'm not sure else people want them to do.

I don't necessarily think they are a title contender, but they've absolutely earned the right to be in the conversation with the rest of the non-NDSU/JMU/Weber teams.

[F'N Hawks]

Furman has won 12 of their last 14 FCS games.

I'm not sure else people want them to do.


Beat somebody good in 2019??

[Professor Chaos]

So hypothetically if UNH upsets JMU this weekend how high to they rise considering the committee's already absurdly high opinion of UNH? Top 4? Gotta be at least to #5.

Also, does this mean Delaware is very much still on the bubble at 4-5 with that win over UNH? They win out with wins against Stony Brook and Nova it seems like they've got a good shot.

EDIT: I guess it's also clear that bad losses don't seem to be much of a factor for the committee. Good news for teams like UND, Wofford, Austin Peay, SHSU, Nicholls, etc.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Beat somebody good in 2019??


Curb stomped Samford and beat Chattanooga. Plus they have Wofford coming up.

If they finish 9-3, they will be a top 8 seed.

[PaladinFan]

Curb stomped Samford and beat Chattanooga. Plus they have Wofford coming up.

If they finish 9-3, they will be a top 8 seed.

I think they will be.

McLaughlin threw out a few other teams, but I don't think any of them have Furman's resume. https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-playoff-committee-top10-reaction-nov6-ajaj

I personally think the Paladins get a bounce from playing two really tight games against FBS teams. Especially considering that Georgia State may end up as the Sun Belt's best team and VT has played some impressive football at times (VT just lost by 1 to Notre Dame in South Bend).

[caribbeanhen]

So hypothetically if UNH upsets JMU this weekend how high to they rise considering the committee's already absurdly high opinion of UNH? Top 4? Gotta be at least to #5.

Also, does this mean Delaware is very much still on the bubble at 4-5 with that win over UNH? They win out with wins against Stony Brook and Nova it seems like they've got a good shot.

EDIT: I guess it's also clear that bad losses don't seem to be much of a factor for the committee. Good news for teams like UND, Wofford, Austin Peay, SHSU, Nicholls, etc.

gotta beat Albany too

[WrenFGun]

Um. I wouldn’t have UNH in the top 10, but the resumes are garbage and UNH has wins over Villanova, Stony Brook, Duquesne and Elon. It doesn’t really surprise me much all told. The other resumes frankly aren’t clearly better.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

So hypothetically if UNH upsets JMU this weekend how high to they rise considering the committee's already absurdly high opinion of UNH? Top 4? Gotta be at least to #5.

Also, does this mean Delaware is very much still on the bubble at 4-5 with that win over UNH? They win out with wins against Stony Brook and Nova it seems like they've got a good shot.

EDIT: I guess it's also clear that bad losses don't seem to be much of a factor for the committee. Good news for teams like UND, Wofford, Austin Peay, SHSU, Nicholls, etc.

How about Holy Cross? If they finish 8-4 (8-2) against FCS competition with a win over UNH what are their seed potential? They'll have no real bad losses. Yet the eye test says they're no where close to a top 10 team. They're not even sniffing the Top 25..lol

[cx500d]

Um. I wouldn’t have UNH in the top 10, but the resumes are garbage and UNH has wins over Villanova, Stony Brook, Duquesne and Elon. It doesn’t really surprise me much all told. The other resumes frankly aren’t clearly better.
I agree. I’m ok with this ranking

[KPSUL]

So hypothetically if UNH upsets JMU this weekend how high to they rise considering the committee's already absurdly high opinion of UNH? Top 4? Gotta be at least to #5.

Also, does this mean Delaware is very much still on the bubble at 4-5 with that win over UNH? They win out with wins against Stony Brook and Nova it seems like they've got a good shot.

EDIT: I guess it's also clear that bad losses don't seem to be much of a factor for the committee. Good news for teams like UND, Wofford, Austin Peay, SHSU, Nicholls, etc.

WTF Professor? You had UNH Ranked 14th this week, with two Ivy Teams ahead of them. So in effect they are in your playoff top 12!

[Reign of Terrier]

The top 8 or 9 are pretty much at consensus. The more I think about it, the less I hate UNH at #10 (I haven't looked where they are in other polls tbh)

The CAA is garbage but UNH has two good wins, but I think one will diminish.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The top 8 or 9 are pretty much at consensus. The more I think about it, the less I hate UNH at #10 (I haven't looked where they are in other polls tbh)

The CAA is garbage but UNH has two good wins, but I think one will diminish.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

HUH? The PL, NEC, SWAC, Big South and Pioneer are varying degrees of garbage. The CAA is still an elite FCS conference. There's no question that JMU is carrying it right now. Still, there are at least one or two other teams capable of advancing in the playoffs so long as the draw is favorable. Granted, that will apply to basically everyone except the top 2-3 teams. NDSU, JMU and maybe Weber State will be expected to advance.

The CAA top to bottom is clearly down. I think a lot of that is a result of coaching erosion. The loss of Talley at 'Nova, Laycock hanging around 3-4 years too many, Rocco not being able to elevate Delaware and Richmond still searching have hurt these program's ceilings. What Ferrente is doing at Villanova is a crime. On the "plus side" Towson with Ambrose is the wildcard imo. The Tigers have a true difference maker in Flacco and Ambrose certainly has the confidence. Santos stabilizing UNH does not surprise me. I just don't think they're going to do enough the final 3 weeks to make it. The schedule it tough....

[Professor Chaos]

How about Holy Cross? If they finish 8-4 (8-2) against FCS competition with a win over UNH what are their seed potential? They'll have no real bad losses. Yet the eye test says they're no where close to a top 10 team. They're not even sniffing the Top 25..lol
Yep, same with them. Although no matter how highly the committee values UNH you would think a 7-5 Holy Cross has no shot an at at-large unlike Delaware at 7-5. If Holy Cross wins out they're the PL autobid but like you said probably nowhere near the seeds.

[Reign of Terrier]

HUH? The PL, NEC, SWAC, Big South and Pioneer are varying degrees of garbage. The CAA is still an elite FCS conference. There's no question that JMU is carrying it right now. Still, there are at least one or two other teams capable of advancing in the playoffs so long as the draw is favorable. Granted, that will apply to basically everyone except the top 2-3 teams. NDSU, JMU and maybe Weber State will be expected to advance.

The CAA top to bottom is clearly down. I think a lot of that is a result of coaching erosion. The loss of Talley at 'Nova, Laycock hanging around 3-4 years too many, Rocco not being able to elevate Delaware and Richmond still searching have hurt these program's ceilings. What Ferrente is doing at Villanova is a crime. On the "plus side" Towson with Ambrose is the wildcard imo. The Tigers have a true difference maker in Flacco and Ambrose certainly has the confidence. Santos stabilizing UNH does not surprise me. I just don't think they're going to do enough the final 3 weeks to make it. The schedule it tough....The CAA went 2-4 in the first round of the playoffs last year, including an embarrassing 3 TD loss to the NEC champ and handing the OVC it's first OOC playoff victory to a fully scholarshiped team to a team not named Jacksonville State.

Everything is relative, fine, but this year's top 6 holds losses to a garbage Fordham team and Holy Cross, and near losses to Penn, not to mention a handful of 3 score losses to random bottom tier teams.

In my opinion, consistency, especially in conference play, is essential to being a good team and the CAA is no better, or maybe even worse (outside of JMU) on that.

If we're going to jump on the OVC, Southern, and Southland for questionable performances OOC, all's fair.

The CAA is playing with house money right now.

They may not be garbage, but they are certainly not elite.

Also: Stop trying to convince me that Towson and Stony Brook are elite programs.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

WTF Professor? You had UNH Ranked 14th this week, with two Ivy Teams ahead of them. So in effect they are in your playoff top 12!
Fair enough, you're right that the committee didn't have them that much higher than I did but I felt like I was as generous as possible with UNH at #14 so was surprised to see them even higher than I had them in the committee rankings.

I'm also not sure the committee would exclude an Ivy League team from their rankings either. They had NC A&T in their top 10 a couple years back when they were tracking towards the Celebration Bowl. But maybe the Ivies are different since, unlike MEAC team where only champion isn't eligible, they don't have any shot at a playoff bid.

[MTfan4life]

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

There are 42 rating systems/polls right now on the Massey composite list. Not a single one of them has New Hampshire in the top 10. Fleming has them at 11 and the next highest is 14.

You'd have to assume New Hampshire is pretty high in the SRS. Which makes sense considering by record alone, they have had a tough schedule. Outside of Rhode Island, the next pick for weakest opponent would be either 4-5 Delaware/Elon, or 6-2 Duquesne.

[Mattymc727]

Damn, Marty couldn’t put us top 5? This committee is a joke! Why even be on the committee if you can’t put your own school in the top 5?

[1989 Ric Flair]

NH at #10 certainly seems like a stretch (and I'm a NH fan), but I'll attempt to make the case from the committee's point of view:

Looking at a close road loss to Holy Cross early (and looking at HC's record, not talent level)

A decisive win over Duquense (possibly a playoff team)

Leading FBS FIU into the 3rd Q, a team that may now become bowl eligible

Solid wins over Stony Brook, Elon, 'Nova (ranked #11 at the time)

Close road loss to Delaware (ranked at the time)

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[KPSUL]

UNH had been undervalued by all the major polls and AGS since the Villanova game. 10th might have been a bit of a stretch, but it's closer than the 20th, 23rd and 25th ranks we got from AGS, STATs and COACHES. I don't think any UNH fans, or the team, was expecting this. We all know how tough these next 3 games are going to be, just like many of the other teams contending for playoff spots. The final Top 25, Top 10, whatever, will look very different on Selection Sunday. Given a choice, I'd rather be out of the top 10 at the moment and in the Top 8, or even Top 24, on November 24th. So I, as well as amost all other UNH faithful, care little about the exact position on the Top 25, or 10, with three tough conference games to play. For 14 years we had teams selected Top seed, 2nd to last in, and everything in between. One of our most questioned teams (2013) beat two seeded teams on the way the the Semi-Finals. Selection of our 2017 team was also questioned and they beat the #4 seed in the 2nd round. UNH has a winning playoff record over the past 15 years. So is it really such a shocker that a team with a history of finishing the regular season strong and winning playoff games is selected for 10th over 5 or 6 other teams with indistinguishable 2019 resumes ?

[Bison56]

Must be trying to pump up JMUs SOS by having UNH at 10.

[Dukie95]

The CAA went 2-4 in the first round of the playoffs last year, including an embarrassing 3 TD loss to the NEC champ and handing the OVC it's first OOC playoff victory to a fully scholarshiped team to a team not named Jacksonville State.

Everything is relative, fine, but this year's top 6 holds losses to a garbage Fordham team and Holy Cross, and near losses to Penn, not to mention a handful of 3 score losses to random bottom tier teams.

In my opinion, consistency, especially in conference play, is essential to being a good team and the CAA is no better, or maybe even worse (outside of JMU) on that.

If we're going to jump on the OVC, Southern, and Southland for questionable performances OOC, all's fair.

The CAA is playing with house money right now.

They may not be garbage, but they are certainly not elite.

Also: Stop trying to convince me that Towson and Stony Brook are elite programs.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Nice list of losses there. The CAA was 25-6 against the rest of the FCS, so congrats for finding all of them. As a Wofford fan, you likely know the CAA was 3-0 against your conference, including a win by the non-elite Towson. The three losses to random teams you are looking for was NDSU, Monmouth and NC A&T.

[UNHWildcat18]

LOL no idea why we are at #10.............. Also can't wait for the UD fans to make the funny marty GIF's again.

[kalm]

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

There are 42 rating systems/polls right now on the Massey composite list. Not a single one of them has New Hampshire in the top 10. Fleming has them at 11 and the next highest is 14.

You'd have to assume New Hampshire is pretty high in the SRS. Which makes sense considering by record alone, they have had a tough schedule. Outside of Rhode Island, the next pick for weakest opponent would be either 4-5 Delaware/Elon, or 6-2 Duquesne.

Yep. Also guessing the strength of HC’s losses against Yale, Navy, Cuse, and Harvard somehow buoy up UNH’s SRS profile.

[Dukie95]

Because I can't help but call out a BSer...here is the entire list of CAA OOC losses. Only one 3 score loss that I can find, or am I missing something?



UNH - Holy Cross - 10-13
Richmond - Fordham - 16-23
Richmond - Yale - 27-28
Albany - Monmouth - 35-38
Elon - NCA&T - 21-24
Delaware - NDSU - 22-47

[MR. CHICKEN]

Nice list of losses there. The CAA was 25-6 against the rest of the FCS, so congrats for finding all of them. As a Wofford fan, you likely know the CAA was 3-0 against your conference, including a win by the non-elite Towson. The three losses to random teams you are looking for was NDSU, Monmouth and NC A&T.

....WAY TA FACT CHECK DOOKIE...xhighfivex......RAIN UH TERROR....SINCE HIS RE-EMERGENCE....BEEN SPOUTIN' OFF......LIKE HE HAS TWO POTS UH JOE....B/4 LOGGIN' ON.......BRAWK!!

[Professor Chaos]

UNH had been undervalued by all the major polls and AGS since the Villanova game. 10th might have been a bit of a stretch, but it's closer than the 20th, 23rd and 25th ranks we got from AGS, STATs and COACHES. I don't think any UNH fans, or the team, was expecting this. We all know how tough these next 3 games are going to be, just like many of the other teams contending for playoff spots. The final Top 25, Top 10, whatever, will look very different on Selection Sunday. Given a choice, I'd rather be out of the top 10 at the moment and in the Top 8, or even Top 24, on November 24th. So I, as well as amost all other UNH faithful, care little about the exact position on the Top 25, or 10, with three tough conference games to play. For 14 years we had teams selected Top seed, 2nd to last in, and everything in between. One of our most questioned teams (2013) beat two seeded teams on the way the the Semi-Finals. Selection of our 2017 team was also questioned and they beat the #4 seed in the 2nd round. UNH has a winning playoff record over the past 15 years. So is it really such a shocker that a team with a history of finishing the regular season strong and winning playoff games is selected for 10th over 5 or 6 other teams with indistinguishable 2019 resumes ?

You have to wonder if the committee thinks UNH is good enough to rank #10 at 5-3 whether they think they'll be good enough for an at-large bid at a hypothetical 6-5 assuming they lose to JMU and then split with Albany and Maine. They'd have to get passed by about 15 teams to fall out of the playoffs. A loss to #2 JMU wouldn't contribute much to that but would another loss to a fringe bubble team knock them down that far? UNH getting a playoff bid with 6 wins in a 12 game season would probably set off quite the firestorm among fans/teams left out.

[MR. CHICKEN]

So suddenly JMU/UNH is a Top 10 matchup...

.......BUT NO NOMINATION....FO' MARQUEE GAME UH WEEK...xsmhx.....BRAWK!

[MR. CHICKEN]

WTF Professor? You had UNH Ranked 14th this week, with two Ivy Teams ahead of them. So in effect they are in your playoff top 12!

.....CAA FACT CHECKERS.....MAKE ME SMILE..:D.....AWK!

[Reign of Terrier]

Nice list of losses there. The CAA was 25-6 against the rest of the FCS, so congrats for finding all of them. As a Wofford fan, you likely know the CAA was 3-0 against your conference, including a win by the non-elite Towson. The three losses to random teams you are looking for was NDSU, Monmouth and NC A&T.

Oh please. Below is the CAA's OOC. Some games are played twice The Summary: NDSU, A&T, Monmouth, 2 Socon teams, 3 HBCUs that are like 1-8 right now, 6 Patriot League teams, 3 pioneer teams, 5 NEC teams, and 3 ivys (but none of the good ones). That's a total of 25 teams, and 14 of them aren't fully scholarshipped. That's not an elite schedule, I would expect most conferences to have a similar record.

SFPA
Morgan State
Chattanooga
Citadel
Holy Cross
Duquesne
Fordham
Jacksonville
Yale
Monmouth
Bryant
Colgate
Lehigh
Bucknell
Long Island State (game hasn't been played yet)
North Carolina A&T
North Carolina Central
Wagner
Delaware State
NDSU
Penn
Sacred Heart
Lafayette
Brown
Merrimack

[Reign of Terrier]

Because I can't help but call out a BSer...here is the entire list of CAA OOC losses. Only one 3 score loss that I can find, or am I missing something?



UNH - Holy Cross - 10-13
Richmond - Fordham - 16-23
Richmond - Yale - 27-28
Albany - Monmouth - 35-38
Elon - NCA&T - 21-24
Delaware - NDSU - 22-47

14 of your 25 OOC is against teams without 63 scholarships. Of the remaining 11, you have beaten 8, with 3 of them being very bad MEAC teams and another 3 were forgettable Ivy teams.

[kalm]

14 of your 25 OOC is against teams without 63 scholarships. Of the remaining 11, you have beaten 8, with 3 of them being very bad MEAC teams and another 3 were forgettable Ivy teams.

Those without fandom for the Socon shall cast the first scheduling stone.

[Redbird 4th & short]

no way... never count Marty out

Too funny ... Massey Composite #20 (avg of 42 polls).... excluding the Ivys, they would be #17 ... leap frogs over 7 teams to 10. FCP has them #25. STATS has them #23. AGS has them #21. Massey and Sagarin both have them #20. Adjust all those higher by 3 to remove Ivys.

Good thing they allegedly rely on that coaches poll, or they might have been a top 4 seed.

Marty, Marty, Marty !!!!!!!!

[wapiti]

Having UNH at 10 is better than having Kennesaw or NC A&T there.

[Redbird 4th & short]

LOL no idea why we are at #10.............. Also can't wait for the UD fans to make the funny marty GIF's again.
eh .. I think you know why.

xnodx

[Reign of Terrier]

Those without fandom for the Socon shall cast the first scheduling stone.

The Socon (righfully) got a lot of flack for our OOC this year. But we've only played 2 teams without 63 scholarships, while also playing the likes of:
Towson
Elon
JMU
Jacksonville State
Austin Peay (2x)
SC State (who will probably finish 8-3)
Youngstown State (warts an all)
Tennessee Tech
Campbell
Alabama A&M

All of these teams, except maybe (it's 50-50) Elon/TTU/A&M, will finish with a winning record. And yes, they are all of varying quality (Campbell isn't JMU). But you can't sit here and tell me that the CAA is an elite conference because of their OOC record, given who they play.

And, of course, I'm not claiming that the Socon is some elite conference (we're <.500 in these games right now). All I'm saying is that the CAA isn't elite.

[Mattymc727]

eh .. I think you know why.

xnodx

Why do you have such vitriol for UNH? You still have a stick up your ass over some decision made years ago? You got the last laugh in 2014 anyway. Did Marty boink your wife or something?

[apaladin]

We all know the committee follows the Coaches poll religiously. Before last weeks Villanova win UNH was #41. They jumped 16 spots to #25 currently. The committee jumped them another 15 spots to #10. That is 31 spots based on one win. Something is rotten in Denmark.

[WrenFGun]

That's because the committee is smarter than the polls; UNH has been underranked for weeks and has a competitive resume with teams bordering the top 10. Frankly I feel like I have this discussion every year; UNH's resume is historically better than they're voted in these polls, presumably because of their annual bone-headed loss or scoring 61 points and losing, but it really isn't any different than any other team.

[F'N Hawks]

I am honestly not trying to be obtuse here but I still don't understand the vitrol for UNH but nothing about Furman. If you actually value a team showing they can beat somebody then UNH has done that (Elon, Stony Brook, Nova). Their worst loss is Holy Cross (Massey #48).

But at some point doesn't a team, like Furman, have to actually beat somebody with a winning record? According to Massey, Furman's best win is over #56 Chattanooga (4-5), followed by a win over #62 Samford (4-5).

[Herder]

Having UNH at 10 is better than having Kennesaw or NC A&T there.

UNH has no business being at number 10. There are about 10 teams in the polls with as much claim to that spot at UNH. I always ask myself, if this ranking were being done by the same folks and criteria used at the FBS level, does it pass the smell test? No, it doesn't. FCS rankings have a long list of biases that come along with it, none of which are who are the best football teams. The MVFC teams will be lined up at 1,4,5,8 and the Big Sky at 2,3,6,7 . . . can see it a mile away.

[Professor Chaos]

We all know the committee follows the Coaches poll religiously. Before last weeks Villanova win UNH was #41. They jumped 16 spots to #25 currently. The committee jumped them another 15 spots to #10. That is 31 spots based on one win. Something is rotten in Denmark.
No they don't. If anything they follow the AGS Poll more than the STATS or Coaches polls historically.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?216083-Which-poll-is-the-most-accurate-playoff-predictor

As I pointed out earlier in the thread even their top 10 last night was closer to the AGS Poll than it was to the STATS or Coaches polls (and the Coaches poll was the worst of the three):


Here's how the polls stacked up:



R

Committee

AGS

Dif

STATS

Dif

Coaches

Dif



1

North Dakota State

North Dakota State

-

North Dakota State

-

North Dakota State

-



2

James Madison

James Madison

-

James Madison

-

James Madison

-



3

Weber State

Weber State

-

Weber State

-

Weber State

-



4

South Dakota State

South Dakota State

-

South Dakota State

-

South Dakota State

-



5

Sacramento State

Northern Iowa

+1

Northern Iowa

+1

Montana

+3



6

Northern Iowa

Montana

+2

Montana

+2

Central Arkansas

+1



7

Central Arkansas

Sacramento State

-2

Central Arkansas

-

Northern Iowa

-1



8

Montana

Central Arkansas

-1

Sacramento State

-3

Sacramento State

-3



9

Furman

Furman

-

Furman

-

Princeton

NR



10

New Hampshire

Illinois State

NR

Princeton

NR

Furman

-1





(20) New Hampshire

-10

(23) New Hampshire

-13

(25) New Hampshire

-15





All 3 were pretty close with the one obvious exception but AGS was a bit closer than the other two (16 total ranks off compared to 19 for STATS and 23 for the Coaches).

[Professor Chaos]

UNH has no business being at number 10. There are about 10 teams in the polls with as much claim to that spot at UNH. I always ask myself, if this ranking were being done by the same folks and criteria used at the FBS level, does it pass the smell test? No, it doesn't. FCS rankings have a long list of biases that come along with it, none of which are who are the best football teams. The MVFC teams will be lined up at 1,4,5,8 and the Big Sky at 2,3,6,7 . . . can see it a mile away.
Just stop... every year there is wailing and hand-wringing from MVFC fans (mostly my fellow Bison fans) about how the committee is biased against the MVFC and NDSU. Where was this bias two years ago when the top two MVFC teams were on opposite sides of the bracket? Where was this bias 2 years ago when NDSU, as the #2 seed, got the easier side of the bracket compared to #1 JMU.

Just stop with the anti-NDSU/MVFC conspiracy theories! It can't be proven and it's embarrassing that so many of my fellow Bison fans continually bring it up. Thank the lord our team and coaches aren't as uptight and insecure about this as a lot of my fellow fans are.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The Socon (righfully) got a lot of flack for our OOC this year. But we've only played 2 teams without 63 scholarships, while also playing the likes of:
Towson .. #21 won at Citadel by 7
Elon .. #30 won at home over Citadel by 7
JMU .. #2 won at Chattanooga by 23
Jacksonville State .. #48 won at home over Chattanooga by 21
Austin Peay (2x) .. #32 won at Mercer by 14 and lost at ETSU by 6
SC State (who will probably finish 8-3) .. #51 won at home over Wofford
Youngstown State (warts an all) .. #27 won at Samford by 23
Tennessee Tech .. #66 won at home over Samford
Campbell .. #64 won at Mercer by 7
Alabama A&M .. #98 lost at Samford by 34

All of these teams, except maybe (it's 50-50) Elon/TTU/A&M, will finish with a winning record. And yes, they are all of varying quality (Campbell isn't JMU). But you can't sit here and tell me that the CAA is an elite conference because of their OOC record, given who they play.
And, of course, I'm not claiming that the Socon is some elite conference (we're <.500 in these games right now). All I'm saying is that the CAA isn't elite.

Massey Composite ranking (up to 42 polls this week) of the SoCon OOC opponents you cited above is in red above, along with the results of those games. You admit SoCon was under .500 in those game ... uh, well yeah ... 2-9 is under .500 for sure. What's more amazing is 7 of 11 were at SoCon home and only 1 loss was against a playoff lock, while 3 more were against bubble teams (Towson, YSU, Elon). And of the 2 wins, one was against #32 APU (6-3) and the other #98 Alabama A&M (5-4 .. but 3-4 against D-I) ... so 1 decent win in 11 games.

Remember how you lectured me about how close losses are simply losses, when I cited WIU (MVFC 4th place) losing at Weber St (Big Sky 1st place) by 2 on road in 1st round in 2017 as a quality loss in our little debate ... remember what you said then to diminish that quality loss of a MVFC 4th place team to a Big Sky 1st place team ????

Now you cite 11 SoCon OOC games as being relatively tougher than Colonial .. ahem .... putting aside for moment how strongly you argued in favor of Colonial when I was arguing in favor of MVFC .... and you try to slip one by everyone by "acknowledging" that SoCon was under .500 .. inferring a a little under .500 ..... and SoCon went 2-9 with only 1 decent win.

Nice try ....

[Terry2889]

LOL no idea why we are at #10.............. Also can't wait for the UD fans to make the funny marty GIF's again.

Literally one of the last things I wanted to see this morning... Well, in four days we'll know wether it was warranted or not. If we lose we'll be back out of the picture and everyone can be happy again. If we somehow manage to win we will be a top 10 team in any poll.

[Professor Chaos]

Literally one of the last things I wanted to see this morning... Well, in four days we'll know wether it was warranted or not. If we lose we'll be back out of the picture and everyone can be happy again. If we somehow manage to win we will be a top 10 team in any poll.
This is true. If UNH beats JMU this Saturday they'll be in everyone's top 10 (or at least should be). If they don't they would almost certainly drop out of the committee's top 10 (if they were releasing a ranking next week which they're not).

The more interesting thing to me about UNH being at #10 is what it tells us about what the committee values that I mentioned earlier in the thread like is UNH a legit bubble team at 6-5? Is Delaware in at 7-5 with a win over UNH? Do questionable losses (or lack thereof) carry less weight than quality wins (or lack thereof) as this UNH rankings seems to indicate?

Of course the committee has been known to be inconsistent in how they value (or don't value) certain factors of one team's resume that they don't for another so maybe I'm reading way to much into this that won't really translate into the decisions they make on Selection Sunday.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Just stop... every year there is wailing and hand-wringing from MVFC fans (mostly my fellow Bison fans) about how the committee is biased against the MVFC and NDSU. Where was this bias two years ago when the top two MVFC teams were on opposite sides of the bracket? Where was this bias 2 years ago when NDSU, as the #2 seed, got the easier side of the bracket compared to #1 JMU.

Just stop with the anti-NDSU/MVFC conspiracy theories! It can't be proven and it's embarrassing that so many of my fellow Bison fans continually bring it up. Thank the lord our team and coaches aren't as uptight and insecure about this as a lot of my fellow fans are.

eh ... maybe from NDSU perspective. But it is very obvious to rest of MVFC that we get screwed more than any other conference the lat 10 years. Ask SDSU about their seeds. Ask YSU how many times they get left home with better resumes than a handful of teams. Finally, the proof is in the pudding with our playoff results exclding NDSU with their 32-2 playoff record since 2010 ... MVFC excl NDSU has a .631 win % ..compared to Colonial being around .500 w/ or w/o JMU or UNH, Big Sky excl EWU with a .360 win % and Southland excl SHSU with .250 win% .. and every other conference being around .000 to .400.

Our .631 win % excl NDSU is all the evidence anyone should need .. that is nearly 2 of 3 games against OOC playoff teams, with many more on road than home, and having gotten benefit of just 1 weak autobid in those 10 years. Only Colonial is remotely close, and their record is padded heavily with weak autobids at home.

Sorry Professor, I enjoy your posts most of the time, but your Bison success is clouding over your view of this.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Literally one of the last things I wanted to see this morning... Well, in four days we'll know wether it was warranted or not. If we lose we'll be back out of the picture and everyone can be happy again. If we somehow manage to win we will be a top 10 team in any poll.

....IFIN' MARTY ISN'T OUTTAH DUH COUNTRY....YOUSE WIN......HE'S DAT GOOD......AWK!

[MR. CHICKEN]

We all know the committee follows the Coaches poll religiously. Before last weeks Villanova win UNH was #41. They jumped 16 spots to #25 currently. The committee jumped them another 15 spots to #10. That is 31 spots based on one win. Something is rotten in Denmark.

.....DURHAM.......BRAWK!

[Professor Chaos]

eh ... maybe from NDSU perspective. But it is very obvious to rest of MVFC that we get screwed more than any other conference the lat 10 years. Ask SDSU about their seeds. Ask YSU how many times they get left home with better resumes than a handful of teams. Finally, the proof is in the pudding with our playoff results exclding NDSU with their 32-2 playoff record since 2010 ... MVFC excl NDSU has a .631 win % ..compared to Colonial being around .500 w/ or w/o JMU or UNH, Big Sky excl EWU with a .360 win % and Southland excl SHSU with .250 win% .. and every other conference being around .000 to .400.

Our .631 win % excl NDSU is all the evidence anyone should need .. that is nearly 2 of 3 games against OOC playoff teams, with many more on road than home, and having gotten benefit of just 1 weak autobid in those 10 years. Only Colonial is remotely close, and their record is padded heavily with weak autobids at home.

Sorry Professor, I enjoy your posts most of the time, but your Bison success is clouding over your view of this.
How has SDSU been screwed on their seed? In 2016 they were #7 in all the polls and seeded #8 (basically swapped with UND) in the bracket. In 2017 they were seeded #5 which is exactly where the AGS Poll had them and 1 spot higher than the STATS and Coaches polls had them. In 2018 they were seeded #5 again which was right in line with where all the polls had them.

In terms of playoff bids no conference has gotten a higher percentage of teams into the playoffs than the MVFC since the field expanded to 24 teams in 2013. The MVFC has had 4 at-large teams selected with 5 losses in that time. Every other conference combined has had 0. Every conference can come up with snubs... you follow the MVFC more closely (as do I) so that's the ones you remember. There is no evidence the committee is out to get any particular conference or any particular team yet every year the majority of whining comes from MVFC fans when the committee has consistently shown the conference more respect than any other conference.

[Sader87]

My quick take, like most years there are roughly 5-8 really good FCS teams. You can throw the next 10 through Top 40 or so and pick them out of a bag to place them accordingly.

Much the same can be said for the FBS most years as well.

[UNHWildcat18]

eh .. I think you know why.

xnodx

If I'm not mistaken, Marty's tenure on the committee ended after 2017

[UNHWildcat18]

My quick take, like most years there are roughly 5-8 really good FCS teams. You can throw the next 10 through Top 40 or so and pick them out of a bag to place them accordingly.

Much the same can be said for the FBS most years as well.

This right here^^^^^^^^

Also can you please win the rest of your games to help SOS give a 7-4/6-5 UNH team a spot in the playoffs? As this board and the entire world knows we are VERY DESERVING

[Reign of Terrier]

Massey Composite ranking (up to 42 polls this week) of the SoCon OOC opponents you cited above is in red above, along with the results of those games. You admit SoCon was under .500 in those game ... uh, well yeah ... 2-9 is under .500 for sure. What's more amazing is 7 of 11 were at SoCon home and only 1 loss was against a playoff lock, while 3 more were against bubble teams (Towson, YSU, Elon). And of the 2 wins, one was against #32 APU (6-3) and the other #98 Alabama A&M (5-4 .. but 3-4 against D-I) ... so 1 decent win in 11 games.

Remember how you lectured me about how close losses are simply losses, when I cited WIU (MVFC 4th place) losing at Weber St (Big Sky 1st place) by 2 on road in 1st round in 2017 as a quality loss in our little debate ... remember what you said then to diminish that quality loss of a MVFC 4th place team to a Big Sky 1st place team ????

Now you cite 11 SoCon OOC games as being relatively tougher than Colonial .. ahem .... putting aside for moment how strongly you argued in favor of Colonial when I was arguing in favor of MVFC .... and you try to slip one by everyone by "acknowledging" that SoCon was under .500 .. inferring a a little under .500 ..... and SoCon went 2-9 with only 1 decent win.

Nice try ....

See, in your recurring efforts to refer to the gospel of Massey, misunderstand my arguments and ignore the times I've mentioned I've changed my mind, you completely misunderstood my point. Par the course, given your reading comprehension skills.

You can't prance out the CAA as an elite conference just because they're 25-6 without giving proper context to how garbage 21 of the 25 teams are (14 from the pioneer/patriot/NEC + 3 forgettable Ivys and 3 BAD HBCU teams). I can say win, lose, or draw that a team in the Valley will play a tougher conference schedule than the CAA/Socon/anybody, but I'm not going to give them credit over bubble teams just because of that difficulty when they finish .500. You would.

BUT, that is a COMPLETELY separate argument from whether or not 1) the CAA's OOC schedule is elite (it isn't) and 2) whether the performance is elite (not necessarily). All I'm addressing is those two points.

I'm not trying to give the Socon more credit for playing a tougher schedule and ergo prove we are better than the CAA (that's a dumb argument), just pointing out that it's pretty damn easy to go 25-6 with that schedule (I'd put money on the Big Sky, Southern, MVFC, CAA, and Southland doing the same or better). I made no claims of the Southern conference having better credentials or being "more elite" than the CAA. My point was simply that the CAA *is not* elite.

Your inability to understand simple counterfactuals and not just raw records is an analytical flaw. Learn to not just look at the records or the OOC or even the record against OOC quality, but also ask yourself "would another conference perform similarly?" In this case, I think it's an overwhelming yes, given how garbage the CAA's OOC is. Heck, I bet any in the other top 6 conferences (including the Big South!) probably plays a tougher OOC schedule than the CAA.

Also, home field advantage means nothing in the Socon and I think Massey says as much, so bringing it up as a point against the conference to make these losses seem that much worse is irrelevant.



This is true. If UNH beats JMU this Saturday they'll be in everyone's top 10 (or at least should be). If they don't they would almost certainly drop out of the committee's top 10 (if they were releasing a ranking next week which they're not).

The more interesting thing to me about UNH being at #10 is what it tells us about what the committee values that I mentioned earlier in the thread like is UNH a legit bubble team at 6-5? Is Delaware in at 7-5 with a win over UNH? Do questionable losses (or lack thereof) carry less weight than quality wins (or lack thereof) as this UNH rankings seems to indicate?

Of course the committee has been known to be inconsistent in how they value (or don't value) certain factors of one team's resume that they don't for another so maybe I'm reading way to much into this that won't really translate into the decisions they make on Selection Sunday.

I think the fact that Indiana State, which had 2 top 10 victories, being the only team to ever get in at 7-5 says a lot. And that Delaware hypothetical just isn't going to happen.


How has SDSU been screwed on their seed? In 2018 they were #7 in all the polls and seeded #8 (basically swapped with UND) in the bracket. In 2017 they were seeded #5 which is exactly where the AGS Poll had them and 1 spot higher than the STATS and Coaches polls had them. In 2018 they were seeded #5 again which was right in line with where all the polls had them.

In terms of playoff bids no conference has gotten a higher percentage of teams into the playoffs than the MVFC since the field expanded to 24 teams in 2013. The MVFC has had 4 at-large teams selected with 5 losses in that time. Every other conference combined has had 0. Every conference can come up with snubs... you follow the MVFC more closely (as do I) so that's the ones you remember. There is no evidence the committee is out to get any particular conference or any particular team yet every year the majority of whining comes from MVFC fans when the committee has consistently shown the conference more respect than any other conference.

The Southern Conference has easily been screwed more than the MVFC. In 2013, Chattanooga was 8-4 and left out, with losses to Bama, FBS transitional Georgia Southern and a 3 point loss to cochamp Samford, and a weird-but-not-bad loss to UT Martin, which only had losses to FBS and playoff teams that year.

Last year, Furman was objectively screwed when the committee put both Lamar and Incarnate word in over the Paladins. I know making fun of whining Furman fans at that time was fun, but Furman had a top 15 win against Wofford, a canceled game against Colgate and no bad losses. Both IW and Lamar didn't have a big win, neither did they have 7 D1 wins. I can understand one of those teams getting in over furman, but both? nope.

And there's more examples of other conferences not getting the same level of difference (McNeese 2017), but those are just two on the top of my head. Just because your fifth place team doesn't get in doesn't mean you're screwed. It means you're entitled to think you deserve that many just by the patch on your jerseys.

[uni88]

How has SDSU been screwed on their seed? In 2016 they were #7 in all the polls and seeded #8 (basically swapped with UND) in the bracket. In 2017 they were seeded #5 which is exactly where the AGS Poll had them and 1 spot higher than the STATS and Coaches polls had them. In 2018 they were seeded #5 again which was right in line with where all the polls had them.

In terms of playoff bids no conference has gotten a higher percentage of teams into the playoffs than the MVFC since the field expanded to 24 teams in 2013. The MVFC has had 4 at-large teams selected with 5 losses in that time. Every other conference combined has had 0. Every conference can come up with snubs... you follow the MVFC more closely (as do I) so that's the ones you remember. There is no evidence the committee is out to get any particular conference or any particular team yet every year the majority of whining comes from MVFC fans when the committee has consistently shown the conference more respect than any other conference.

xthumbsupx Every major conference has examples they can point to where they had a deserving team that didn't make the field. The reality is that none of those teams that just missed are really a threat to advance so it's not worth arguing about. Would it be nice if Valley teams weren't matched against each other and then funneled through Fargo? Yes but regionalization is a part of the process not an example of the Committee trying to screw the MVFC.

[Professor Chaos]

xthumbsupx Every major conference has examples they can point to where they had a deserving team that didn't make the field. The reality is that none of those teams that just missed are really a threat to advance so it's not worth arguing about. Would it be nice if Valley teams weren't matched against each other and then funneled through Fargo? Yes but regionalization is a part of the process not an example of the Committee trying to screw the MVFC.
Yep, regionalization is a valid gripe because it leads to so many rematches, in conference and out of conference, from the regular season. Unfortunately regionalization is something we have to live with until if/when the tournament starts bringing in more revenue.

[MR. CHICKEN]

If I'm not mistaken, Marty's tenure on the committee ended after 2017

.....WHEN DERE IS UH SHIP MIS-HAP...SAY....IN GULF UH OMAN.....SOMETIMES TAKES YEARS.....TA GO THRU RED TAPE....AN' UNCOVERAH...WHOM IS RESPONSIBE.......MARTY....HE'S DAT GOOD.....AWK!

[UNHWildcat18]

See, in your recurring efforts to refer to the gospel of Massey, misunderstand my arguments and ignore the times I've mentioned I've changed my mind, you completely misunderstood my point. Par the course, given your reading comprehension skills.

You can't prance out the CAA as an elite conference just because they're 25-6 without giving proper context to how garbage 21 of the 25 teams are (14 from the pioneer/patriot/NEC + 3 forgettable Ivys and 3 BAD HBCU teams). I can say win, lose, or draw that a team in the Valley will play a tougher conference schedule than the CAA/Socon/anybody, but I'm not going to give them credit over bubble teams just because of that difficulty when they finish .500. You would.

BUT, that is a COMPLETELY separate argument from whether or not 1) the CAA's OOC schedule is elite (it isn't) and 2) whether the performance is elite (not necessarily). All I'm addressing is those two points.

I'm not trying to give the Socon more credit for playing a tougher schedule and ergo prove we are better than the CAA (that's a dumb argument), just pointing out that it's pretty damn easy to go 25-6 with that schedule (I'd put money on the Big Sky, Southern, MVFC, CAA, and Southland doing the same or better). I made no claims of the Southern conference having better credentials or being "more elite" than the CAA. My point was simply that the CAA *is not* elite.

Your inability to understand simple counterfactuals and not just raw records is an analytical flaw. Learn to not just look at the records or the OOC or even the record against OOC quality, but also ask yourself "would another conference perform similarly?" In this case, I think it's an overwhelming yes, given how garbage the CAA's OOC is. Heck, I bet any in the other top 6 conferences (including the Big South!) probably plays a tougher OOC schedule than the CAA.

Also, home field advantage means nothing in the Socon and I think Massey says as much, so bringing it up as a point against the conference to make these losses seem that much worse is irrelevant.




I think the fact that Indiana State, which had 2 top 10 victories, being the only team to ever get in at 7-5 says a lot. And that Delaware hypothetical just isn't going to happen.



The Southern Conference has easily been screwed more than the MVFC. In 2013, Chattanooga was 8-4 and left out, with losses to Bama, FBS transitional Georgia Southern and a 3 point loss to cochamp Samford, and a weird-but-not-bad loss to UT Martin, which only had losses to FBS and playoff teams that year.

Last year, Furman was objectively screwed when the committee put both Lamar and Incarnate word in over the Paladins. I know making fun of whining Furman fans at that time was fun, but Furman had a top 15 win against Wofford, a canceled game against Colgate and no bad losses. Both IW and Lamar didn't have a big win, neither did they have 7 D1 wins. I can understand one of those teams getting in over furman, but both? nope.

And there's more examples of other conferences not getting the same level of difference (McNeese 2017), but those are just two on the top of my head. Just because your fifth place team doesn't get in doesn't mean you're screwed. It means you're entitled to think you deserve that many just by the patch on your jerseys.

CAA and the MVFC are Elite conferences

[uni88]

Can you make valid arguments against UNH? Yes. Who are you going to replace them with that you can't make valid arguments against? As other have posted, it's very muddled after #8.

I'm sure things will get muddier and clearer in the next couple of weeks. We'll know if UNH belongs after this weekend. ISUr has an opportunity to put themselves back into the seed discussion. UNI will climb or drop in a little over a week. Furman might not have great wins but they control their destiny. Stop b!tching and enjoy the show!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The CAA went 2-4 in the first round of the playoffs last year, including an embarrassing 3 TD loss to the NEC champ and handing the OVC it's first OOC playoff victory to a fully scholarshiped team to a team not named Jacksonville State.

Everything is relative, fine, but this year's top 6 holds losses to a garbage Fordham team and Holy Cross, and near losses to Penn, not to mention a handful of 3 score losses to random bottom tier teams.

In my opinion, consistency, especially in conference play, is essential to being a good team and the CAA is no better, or maybe even worse (outside of JMU) on that.

If we're going to jump on the OVC, Southern, and Southland for questionable performances OOC, all's fair.

The CAA is playing with house money right now.

They may not be garbage, but they are certainly not elite.

Also: Stop trying to convince me that Towson and Stony Brook are elite programs.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

I know they stunk in the playoffs. They definitely got too many teams in but you need field fillers. If it wasn't a middling team wearing a CAA badge on their jersey it would have been one from the MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky etc.

I'm of the belief that JMU is head an shoulders above everyone in the CAA. Then again I also think JMU is part of a 3-4 team group that is head and shoulders above the rest of FCS. With that said, there's probably 3-4 other CAA teams that can get a token playoff win in 2019. Maybe 1 or 2 that can pull a legit upset and make it to the semi's.

The CAA is absolutely an elite conference. The pecking order of the elite conferences almost always fluctuates. Right now the conference has been shuffled towards the bottom of the elite scale. A little PAC 12'sh.

[Reign of Terrier]

CAA and the MVFC are Elite conferences

Elite conferences don't have your top teams lose to Fordham or Holy Cross or Dusquesne.

You're living off house money.

[Reign of Terrier]

I know they stunk in the playoffs. They definitely got too many teams in but you need field fillers. If it wasn't a middling team wearing a CAA badge on their jersey it would have been one from the MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky etc.

I'm of the belief that JMU is head an shoulders above everyone in the CAA. Then again I also think JMU is part of a 3-4 team group that is head and shoulders above the rest of FCS. With that said, there's probably 3-4 other CAA teams that can get a token playoff win in 2019. Maybe 1 or 2 that can pull a legit upset and make it to the semi's.

The CAA is absolutely an elite conference. The pecking order of the elite conferences almost always fluctuates. Right now the conference has been shuffled towards the bottom of the elite scale. A little PAC 12'sh.

Everyone thinks they're in an elite conference. The MVFC is the only one. The Big Sky has some good ones this year, but every year at least once of them lays a huge egg, so I'm not holding out yet.

But this year, the CAA outside of JMU has more in common with the Southern, Southland, and OVC than they do the Big Sky or MVFC.

The glory years of the CAA are long over. They ended in 2016.

[uni88]

Elite conferences don't have your top teams lose to Fordham or Holy Cross or Dusquesne.

You're living off house money.

Upsets happen (UNI lost to Lehigh in the playoffs) and they don't mean a conference isn't elite. Rather than trying to tear down the CAA, MVFC, etc. to make the SoCon look better why don't you focus on what SoCon teams have accomplished in 2019?

[Reign of Terrier]

Upsets happen (UNI lost to Lehigh in the playoffs) and they don't mean a conference isn't elite. Rather than trying to tear down the CAA, MVFC, etc. to make the SoCon look better why don't you focus on what SoCon teams have accomplished in 2019?

Because the false perception of a conference's eliteness impacts the rest of the subdivision.

A good portion of the CAA's playoff wins in the last decade have come against the NEC and Patriot and many of the CAA teams have done very little since 2016. There's a very good chance that only a handful will have playoff wins against non-NEC/Patriot teams since their 2020 seniors stepped on campus. I don't want to talk about whether or not the CAA deserves 4 or 5 in, when it's clear that 4 tops deserve it, but probably 3. It used to be that a 4-4 or 5-3 record in the CAA was good enough for the bubble, void of OOC context (because they always won OOC), but that's no longer the case.

It's pretty relevant if, outside of JMU, from 2017-2019 the entire conference has 3 wins playoff against fully-scholarshipped teams. We don't need to be considering this conference getting 4+ teams in the field just because of who they were a decade ago. Heck, 8 of the 12 teams combine for ONE playoff win against a fully scholarshipped team since 2014.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

We all know the committee follows the Coaches poll religiously. Before last weeks Villanova win UNH was #41. They jumped 16 spots to #25 currently. The committee jumped them another 15 spots to #10. That is 31 spots based on one win. Something is rotten in Denmark.

If you truly believe that they follow the Coaches Poll and let it define what they are doing you just don't know what you are talking about. If you are making a joke then I guess it just wasn't a good one or I'm not getting it.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just stop... every year there is wailing and hand-wringing from MVFC fans (mostly my fellow Bison fans) about how the committee is biased against the MVFC and NDSU. Where was this bias two years ago when the top two MVFC teams were on opposite sides of the bracket? Where was this bias 2 years ago when NDSU, as the #2 seed, got the easier side of the bracket compared to #1 JMU.

Just stop with the anti-NDSU/MVFC conspiracy theories! It can't be proven and it's embarrassing that so many of my fellow Bison fans continually bring it up. Thank the lord our team and coaches aren't as uptight and insecure about this as a lot of my fellow fans are.

Oh god damn I'm happy to see this from someone else PC. It is the same ol' conspiracy bull**** every f'n year with MVFC fans and that conference is treated well by the committee, at least as well as any other. xlolx

I don't know how so many of you MVFC guys can whine and bitch so much when you really have a ton to be thankful for int he FCS football world but I guess it is what feels right for a lot of you guys...you just just don't get the respect you deserve right? Go get em' boys! xlolx

[UNHWildcat18]

Elite conferences don't have your top teams lose to Fordham or Holy Cross or Dusquesne.

You're living off house money.

I said it more to just piss you off. You are currently at the top of Soconn and yet you have a loss to a MEAC south carolina state team 5-3... they have no good wins. It's Hilarious a 5th place CAA team could go to a lesser conference champion's house and lose by a TD or less and all the cronies come out and start yelling how they weren't worthy over a 3rd place team from that conference. Regardless of in season and most post season play. There is a reason in the last 5,10,15,20 years most of the teams in the semi's and national championship are CAA,MVFC,BigSky............................

Don't worry CAA will be stronger than it currently is in a few years.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Because the false perception of a conference's eliteness impacts the rest of the subdivision.

A good portion of the CAA's playoff wins in the last decade have come against the NEC and Patriot and many of them have done very little since 2016. There's a very good chance that only a handful will have playoff wins against non-NEC/Patriot teams since their seniors stepped on campus. I don't want to talk about whether or not the CAA deserves 4 or 5 in, when it's clear that 4 tops deserve it, but probably less

It's pretty relevant if, outside of JMU, from 2017-2019 the entire conference has 3 wins playoff against fully-scholarshipped teams. We don't need to be considering this conference getting 4+ teams in the field just because of who they were a decade ago. Heck, 8 of the 12 teams combine for ONE playoff win against a fully scholarshipped team since 2014.

There was a stretch the Big 10 struggled to win big bowl games. The conference was still elite during that stretch.

You're desperately trying to tear down the CAA with tunnel vision. There's a lot of factors that make a conference "elite". I'd start with facilities, media breath, coaching, overall pay, attractiveness of job openings, culture of success, on field success, fan/alumni support, financial commitment etc. It's not based strickly on on-field performance during a minute period of time. Even during that brief period of time of "less eliteness" the conference has done quite well relatively speaking.

[Reign of Terrier]

I said it more to just piss you off. You are currently at the top of Soconn and yet you have a loss to a MEAC south carolina state team 5-3... they have no good wins. It's Hilarious a 5th place CAA team could go to a lesser conference champion's house and lose by a TD or less and all the cronies come out and start yelling how they weren't worthy over a 3rd place team from that conference. Regardless of in season and most post season play. There is a reason in the last 5,10,15,20 years most of the teams in the semi's and national championship are CAA,MVFC,BigSky............................

Don't worry CAA will be stronger than it currently is in a few years.

Weird revisionist history with the omission of the Southern Conference there, judging by the number of teams we've had in the semis, finals, etc.

SC State is 7 points away from being 7-1 against some pretty good teams. Easily our worst OOC loss in 20 years and not nearly as bad as the second worst by the CAA this year.

The CAA's general non-eliteness isn't from just one game, it's from a generally unimpressive resume since 2017 or so that doesn't look to improve this year. It's not what it was a decade ago, just as the Socon isn't. The Socon isn't what it was a decade ago because we lost Georgia Southern and App. The CAA isn't what it was back then because their top programs have regressed and they've added the likes of Stony Brook, Albany, Elon (yeah, yeah, they were Socon before, but we benefited by losing them) and others and watered down the schedule with teams not playing each other.

It's a different conference and the resume runs ahead of the perception. Last year's playoff should have been a wake up call, but this year's regular season kind of proves its not a fluke. Maybe Villanova or Stony Brook goes on a run, but I doubt it.


There was a stretch the Big 10 struggled to win big bowl games. The conference was still elite during that stretch.

You're desperately trying to tear down the CAA with tunnel vision. There's a lot of factors that make a conference "elite". I'd start with facilities, media breath, coaching, overall pay, attractiveness of job openings, culture of success, on field success, fan/alumni support, financial commitment etc. It's not based strickly on on-field performance during a minute period of time. Even during that brief period of time of "less eliteness" the conference has done quite well relatively speaking.

I just gave you playoff records for the last ~3 years, highlighted the lack of playoff success for 2/3 of the conference for the last ~5 years and demonstrated that 75% of their regular season OOC is garbage and you're calling that tunnel vision? puh-leeze.

I'm a late adopter when it comes to "tearing down the CAA." The MVFC crowd were telling me about it before the season and I stood up for the history of the conference, but it's clearly no longer where it used to be.

[KPSUL]

UNH has no business being at number 10. There are about 10 teams in the polls with as much claim to that spot at UNH. I always ask myself, if this ranking were being done by the same folks and criteria used at the FBS level, does it pass the smell test? No, it doesn't. FCS rankings have a long list of biases that come along with it, none of which are who are the best football teams. The MVFC teams will be lined up at 1,4,5,8 and the Big Sky at 2,3,6,7 . . . can see it a mile away.

Following this logic (or lack there of) NO TEAM has any business being #10. Let's just skip #10 and have an 11 way tie for #11. UNH plus your 10 teams "with as much claim to that spot".

[KPSUL]

Because the false perception of a conference's eliteness impacts the rest of the subdivision.

A good portion of the CAA's playoff wins in the last decade have come against the NEC and Patriot and many of the CAA teams have done very little since 2016. There's a very good chance that only a handful will have playoff wins against non-NEC/Patriot teams since their 2020 seniors stepped on campus. I don't want to talk about whether or not the CAA deserves 4 or 5 in, when it's clear that 4 tops deserve it, but probably 3. It used to be that a 4-4 or 5-3 record in the CAA was good enough for the bubble, void of OOC context (because they always won OOC), but that's no longer the case.

It's pretty relevant if, outside of JMU, from 2017-2019 the entire conference has 3 wins playoff against fully-scholarshipped teams. We don't need to be considering this conference getting 4+ teams in the field just because of who they were a decade ago. Heck, 8 of the 12 teams combine for ONE playoff win against a fully scholarshipped team since 2014.

You didn't answer his question: "
Rather than trying to tear down the CAA, MVFC, etc. to make the SoCon look better why don't you focus on what SoCon teams have accomplished in 2019?" And by the way, the elite conferences are MVFC, Big Sky and the CAA.

[Herder]

Oh god damn I'm happy to this from someone else PC. It is the same ol' conspiracy bull**** every f'n year with MVFC fans and that conference is treated well by the committee, at least as well as any other. xlolx

I don't know how so many of you MVFC guys can whine and bitch so much when you really have a ton to be thankful for int he FCS football world but I guess it is what feels right for a lot of you guys...you just just don't get the respect you deserve right? Go get em' boys! xlolx

A lot of years, the MVFC and other top conferences may as well just have a conference playoff and send 1 team to the FCS playoff. They don't allow the two top teams in a conference to be separated. If you think that's not the truth, you aren't paying attention.

[Professor Chaos]

A lot of years, the MVFC and other top conferences may as well just have a conference playoff and send 1 team to the FCS playoff. They don't allow the two top teams in a conference to be separated. If you think that's not the truth, you aren't paying attention.
Cases where that did happen.

2015:
MVFC: Both #2 Illinois St and #3 NDSU on the bottom side of the bracket

2016:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #8 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: Both #2 EWU and #7 UND on the bottom side of the bracket

2018:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: #2 Weber St, #3 EWU, and #6 UC Davis all on the bottom side of the bracket


Cases where that didn't happen.

2013:
Big Sky: #8 Montana on the top side of the bracket and #3 EWU on the bottom
CAA: #5 Maine on the top side of the bracket ant #7 Towson on the bottom
Southland: #4 SELA on the top side of the bracket and #6 McNeese on the bottom

2014:
CAA: #1 New Hampshire on the top side of the bracket and #6 Villanova on the bottom
MVFC: #4 Illinois St on the top side of the bracket and #3 NDSU on the bottom

2015:
CAA: #5 JMU on the top side of the bracket and #7 Richmond on the bottom

2017:
Southland: #4 Central Arkansas on the top side of the bracket and #6 SHSU on the bottom
MVFC: #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket and #2 NDSU on the bottom


So they've done it 5 times and avoided it 8 times meaning it's happened 38% of the time when it was possible. Who's not paying attention?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

A lot of years, the MVFC and other top conferences may as well just have a conference playoff and send 1 team to the FCS playoff. They don't allow the two top teams in a conference to be separated. If you think that's not the truth, you aren't paying attention.



JFC it happens, it is bound to happen at times when you are getting in a lot of teams and the way the playoffs is set up (like all other NCAA sports) you certainly will need to win you region to move on. Tough ****. The two top teams in any conference are not usually #1 and #2 and as such it is a 50/50 shot at best without even looking at how or where the teams should be ranked in the top 8 seeds.

But, it is easier to just sit back and whine about it instead of looking at it with an objective eye. There is nothing in it for the Selection Committee to place the two top teams in a way that makes them play prior to the chipper. Now would that be better for the NCAA, sure, but it does not do a damn thing for the committee selecting it. They ain't getting some payment for saving the NCAA money. They follow the rules that are set up for them.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Cases where that did happen.

2015:
MVFC: Both #2 Illinois St and #3 NDSU on the bottom side of the bracket

2016:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #8 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: Both #2 EWU and #7 UNI on the bottom side of the bracket

2018:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: #2 Weber St, #3 EWU, and #6 UC Davis all on the bottom side of the bracket


Cases where that didn't happen.

2013:
Big Sky: #8 Montana on the top side of the bracket and #3 EWU on the bottom
CAA: #5 Maine on the top side of the bracket ant #7 Towson on the bottom
Southland: #4 SELA on the top side of the bracket and #6 McNeese on the bottom

2014:
CAA: #1 New Hampshire on the top side of the bracket and #6 Villanova on the bottom
MVFC: #4 Illinois St on the top side of the bracket and #3 NDSU on the bottom

2015:
CAA: #5 JMU on the top side of the bracket and #7 Richmond on the bottom

2017:
Southland: #4 Central Arkansas on the top side of the bracket and #6 SHSU on the bottom
MVFC: #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket and #2 NDSU on the bottom


So they've done it 5 times and avoided it 8 times meaning it's happened 38% of the time when it was possible. Who's not paying attention?

IT'S HERDER RIGHT?

The Selection Committee must be biased toward the MVFC and we need to get that conspiracy theory going.:D

[Reign of Terrier]

You didn't answer his question: "
Rather than trying to tear down the CAA, MVFC, etc. to make the SoCon look better why don't you focus on what SoCon teams have accomplished in 2019?"
And by the way, the elite conferences are MVFC, Big Sky and the CAA.

JMU is an elite team. New Hampshire is alright. Villanova may be a playoff team.

Albany, Delaware, Elon, Maine, Rhode Island, Richmond, Stony Brook, Towson, and William and Mary aren't elite.

If all it takes to get elite status is one elite team and 2-3 good teams than we have a few elite conferences.

[Sader87]

"Elite conferences" and FCS football are basically oxymoronic...

[Grizalltheway]

"Elite conferences" and FCS football are basically oxymoronic...
Relatively speaking, but you knew that.

[Reign of Terrier]

A lot of years, the MVFC and other top conferences may as well just have a conference playoff and send 1 team to the FCS playoff. They don't allow the two top teams in a conference to be separated. If you think that's not the truth, you aren't paying attention.


Cases where that did happen.

2015:
MVFC: Both #2 Illinois St and #3 NDSU on the bottom side of the bracket

2016:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #8 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: Both #2 EWU and #7 UNI on the bottom side of the bracket

2018:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: #2 Weber St, #3 EWU, and #6 UC Davis all on the bottom side of the bracket


Cases where that didn't happen.

2013:
Big Sky: #8 Montana on the top side of the bracket and #3 EWU on the bottom
CAA: #5 Maine on the top side of the bracket ant #7 Towson on the bottom
Southland: #4 SELA on the top side of the bracket and #6 McNeese on the bottom

2014:
CAA: #1 New Hampshire on the top side of the bracket and #6 Villanova on the bottom
MVFC: #4 Illinois St on the top side of the bracket and #3 NDSU on the bottom

2015:
CAA: #5 JMU on the top side of the bracket and #7 Richmond on the bottom

2017:
Southland: #4 Central Arkansas on the top side of the bracket and #6 SHSU on the bottom
MVFC: #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket and #2 NDSU on the bottom


So they've done it 5 times and avoided it 8 times meaning it's happened 38% of the time when it was possible. Who's not paying attention?

This "trend" tracks more with geography than it does conference affiliation.

If you're in the Big Sky, because everyone is a flight away, you're less likely to get a conference foe, especially a good seeded one.

If you're in the OVC/some parts of the MVFC, or just the Tennessee area (see: UTC), historically those teams are in prime position to play a diverse array of schools.

But if you're in the Southeast, Northeast, or in the MVFC, you're very likely going to play a conference opponent or a team you've already played in the playoffs before or during the regular season before the quarterfinals.

The Northeast CAA team will play a team from the NEC/Patriot. The Southeast teams (unseeded CAA teams in NC/VA, OVC champ, big south champ, Southern team from SC) will play each other. And because the MVFC gets 4-5 in every year, with at least 2 seeded, and many of them already fly to games, it's just damn convenient to put them with a rando in the first round (Monmouth, sometimes Lehigh, etc) and then a rematch in the second round.

I think what's frustrating about the FCS playoffs is that it's not really a national playoff for most teams. It's only a national playoff if you're west of the Mississippi or seeded. And even then, the "national" flavor fades for teams west of the Mississippi in the MVFC in the second round.

[Professor Chaos]

This "trend" tracks more with geography than it does conference affiliation.

If you're in the Big Sky, because everyone is a flight away, you're less likely to get a conference foe, especially a good seeded one.

If you're in the OVC/some parts of the MVFC, or just the Tennessee area (see: UTC), historically those teams are in prime position to play a diverse array of schools.

But if you're in the Southeast, Northeast, or in the MVFC, you're very likely going to play a conference opponent or a team you've already played in the playoffs before or during the regular season before the quarterfinals.

The Northeast CAA team will play a team from the NEC/Patriot. The Southeast teams (unseeded CAA teams in NC/VA, OVC champ, big south champ, Southern team from SC) will play each other. And because the MVFC gets 4-5 in every year, with at least 2 seeded, and many of them already fly to games, it's just damn convenient to put them with a rando in the first round (Monmouth, sometimes Lehigh, etc) and then a rematch in the second round.

I think what's frustrating about the FCS playoffs is that it's not really a national playoff for most teams. It's only a national playoff if you're west of the Mississippi or seeded. And even then, the "national" flavor fades for teams west of the Mississippi in the MVFC in the second round.
Seeding should have nothing to with geography which is another thing some people hammer the committee on because of a few isolated incidents ignoring the fact that it doesn't happen that way more often than it does. I find it hard to believe the committee does their vote and tallies up points to put their top 8 together (which they do the exact same way the AGS Poll and every other poll does) and then says "well, our #7 seed is closer geographically to our #3 seed than our #6 seed is so let's just tweak that and switch around #6 and #7 even though that's now how the vote came out".

[uni88]

Cases where that did happen.

2015:
MVFC: Both #2 Illinois St and #3 NDSU on the bottom side of the bracket

2016:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #8 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: Both #2 EWU and #7 UNI on the bottom side of the bracket

2018:
MVFC: Both #1 NDSU and #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket
Big Sky: #2 Weber St, #3 EWU, and #6 UC Davis all on the bottom side of the bracket


Cases where that didn't happen.

2013:
Big Sky: #8 Montana on the top side of the bracket and #3 EWU on the bottom
CAA: #5 Maine on the top side of the bracket ant #7 Towson on the bottom
Southland: #4 SELA on the top side of the bracket and #6 McNeese on the bottom

2014:
CAA: #1 New Hampshire on the top side of the bracket and #6 Villanova on the bottom
MVFC: #4 Illinois St on the top side of the bracket and #3 NDSU on the bottom

2015:
CAA: #5 JMU on the top side of the bracket and #7 Richmond on the bottom

2017:
Southland: #4 Central Arkansas on the top side of the bracket and #6 SHSU on the bottom
MVFC: #5 SDSU on the top side of the bracket and #2 NDSU on the bottom


So they've done it 5 times and avoided it 8 times meaning it's happened 38% of the time when it was possible. Who's not paying attention?

I didn't know UNI was in the Big Sky in 2016. I think you meant UND. ;)

And if you look at this year and the season finishes chalk, SDSU will be seeded #4 and NDSU #1. Is that because of a grand conspiracy or because that's where they should be seeded? JMU and Weber will win out with no FCS losses and SDSU will have a loss to NDSU. If SDSU doesn't want to go to Fargo, they're almost better off losing to ISUr or UNI and hoping to only drop to the #6 or #7 seed. I think they would take the #4 seed, another home game and a shot at NDSU in the semi's if things workout.

[Professor Chaos]

I didn't know UNI was in the Big Sky in 2016. I think you meant UND. ;)

And if you look at this year and the season finishes chalk, SDSU will be seeded #4 and NDSU #1. Is that because of a grand conspiracy or because that's where they should be seeded? JMU and Weber will win out with no FCS losses and SDSU will have a loss to NDSU. If SDSU doesn't want to go to Fargo, they're almost better off losing to ISUr or UNI and hoping to only drop to the #6 or #7 seed. I think they would take the #4 seed, another home game and a shot at NDSU in the semi's if things workout.
Oops... yeah that's supposed to be UND. I'll fix it.

To your other point I've seen some people suggest that the committee should move a team down/up a seed line to avoid loading up multiple seeded teams from the same conference on one side of the bracket and I don't like that idea at all. Now you're really causing potential issues with an unbalanced bracket. I think it was 2015 when I saw that suggested and the thought was to move NDSU down to the #4 and McNeese up to the #3. Had they done that NDSU and Jacksonville St would've met in the semis in Jacksonville and Richmond probably would've came out of the bottom half of that bracket.

I'm an agreement that teams should be seeded on merit alone and if the voted consensus puts two seeded teams from the same conference into the same quadrant or same half of the bracket so be it.

[uni88]

Seeding should have nothing to with geography which is another thing some people hammer the committee on because of a few isolated incidents ignoring the fact that it doesn't happen that way more often than it does. I find it hard to believe the committee does their vote and tallies up points to put their top 8 together (which they do the exact same way the AGS Poll and every other poll does) and then says "well, our #7 seed is closer geographically to our #3 seed than our #6 seed is so let's just tweak that and switch around #6 and #7 even though that's now how the vote came out".

I agree, geography shouldn't impact seeding and I don't think it does.

Geography does impact 1st round matchups and who the seeds are matched up with in the 2nd round. For UNI, EIU might be the only potential non-conference opponent within busing distance so they are almost certainly going to be paired up in a game that involves a flight. And western teams are even more likely to require a game with a flight. There are a lot more options in the 2nd round because UNI and western teams can play a conference opponent they've already played. 3 of UNI's last 4 trips to the playoffs have been ended by conference foes.

It sucks that the southeastern teams play each other so frequently but it also sucks that the MFVC teams get funneled through SDSU and NDSU so frequently. I'm not sure you can argue that one is worse than the other.

It is what it is though and there is logic behind it. Complaining about it or calling it a conspiracy is like complaining about water being wet.

[Grizzlies82]

Following this logic (or lack there of) NO TEAM has any business being #10. Let's just skip #10 and have an 11 way tie for #11. UNH plus your 10 teams "with as much claim to that spot".


Excellent thought. Let's just leave it at a "Top 9".

[Grizalltheway]

Following this logic (or lack there of) NO TEAM has any business being #10. Let's just skip #10 and have an 11 way tie for #11. UNH plus your 10 teams "with as much claim to that spot".

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/06/Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven.jpg/330px-Spinal_Tap_-_Up_to_Eleven.jpg

[Redbird 4th & short]

Because the false perception of a conference's eliteness impacts the rest of the subdivision.

A good portion of the CAA's playoff wins in the last decade have come against the NEC and Patriot and many of the CAA teams have done very little since 2016. There's a very good chance that only a handful will have playoff wins against non-NEC/Patriot teams since their 2020 seniors stepped on campus. I don't want to talk about whether or not the CAA deserves 4 or 5 in, when it's clear that 4 tops deserve it, but probably 3. It used to be that a 4-4 or 5-3 record in the CAA was good enough for the bubble, void of OOC context (because they always won OOC), but that's no longer the case.

It's pretty relevant if, outside of JMU, from 2017-2019 the entire conference has 3 wins playoff against fully-scholarshipped teams. We don't need to be considering this conference getting 4+ teams in the field just because of who they were a decade ago. Heck, 8 of the 12 teams combine for ONE playoff win against a fully scholarshipped team since 2014.
so you were paying attention during our big debate ... except now you're singing my song and taking credit ??

That said, Colonial is still an elite conference .. this year, they are probably the deepest with # of "good" teams, though MVFC and Big Sky are clearly the strongest at top where the playoff noisemakers are.

Looking at just top 3 or 4: MVFC edges out Big Sky and Colonial is distant 3rd. But Colonial goes 8 deep with top 40 level teams. MVFC and Big Sky goes maybe 6, arguably 7. None of that is to suggest Colonial deswrves more teams ... but just acknowledging, they have the deepest conference this year. MVFC really slipped in lower half this year.

[ElCid]

.... and you try to slip one by everyone by "acknowledging" that SoCon was under .500 .. inferring a a little under .500 ..... and SoCon went 2-9 with only 1 decent win.

Nice try ....

Not get into this, and I KNOW YOU GUYS ARE ONLY TALKING FCS...but please don't forget, we do also have a somewhat nice win over a P5.......

Just saying.

[POD Knows]

All I care about is that they water down the seeds and the playoff teams, because I want blow outs all the way to the end, as it should be. Hell, drop UNH to 6, salute.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I didn't know UNI was in the Big Sky in 2016. I think you meant UND. ;)

And if you look at this year and the season finishes chalk, SDSU will be seeded #4 and NDSU #1. Is that because of a grand conspiracy or because that's where they should be seeded? JMU and Weber will win out with no FCS losses and SDSU will have a loss to NDSU. If SDSU doesn't want to go to Fargo, they're almost better off losing to ISUr or UNI and hoping to only drop to the #6 or #7 seed. I think they would take the #4 seed, another home game and a shot at NDSU in the semi's if things workout.



A 5th time playing SDSU in the playoffs since 2012. Bus trips are cheap! Good thing we don't see them in the regular season....xrolleyesx

[MacThor]

Why all the hand-wringing? #10 is no different than #24 the way our bracket is set up. #1-#8 are all that matter.

[Reign of Terrier]

so you were paying attention during our big debate ... except now you're singing my song and taking credit ??

That said, Colonial is still an elite conference .. this year, they are probably the deepest with # of "good" teams, though MVFC and Big Sky are clearly the strongest at top where the playoff noisemakers are.

Looking at just top 3 or 4: MVFC edges out Big Sky and Colonial is distant 3rd. But Colonial goes 8 deep with top 40 level teams. MVFC and Big Sky goes maybe 6, arguably 7. None of that is to suggest Colonial deswrves more teams ... but just acknowledging, they have the deepest conference this year. MVFC really slipped in lower half this year.

Bud, go back in the thread, you'll see me give MVFC folks credit.

I have a very hard time thinking the CAA is deep and not just mediocre when the best OOC win is the Citadel. As a conference, they're probably the second biggest but play probably the least fully-scholarshipped teams during the regular season out of the Big Sky, CAA, MVFC, OVC, Southern, and Southland (at least proportionally to total FCS OOC games played). I would actually bet money on that, actually.

So they have the most games relative to other conferences, but as a whole play the least challenging OOC in the sense that they play the most undermanned teams.

I mean, okay, let's look at playoff performance as an auxiliary measure, since 2011 (yes 2010 was a great year for the CAA):
Albany: none as a CAA team
Delaware 0-1
Elon: 0-2
JMU: 9-5 (9-3)
Maine: 3-3 (last years was their first playoff appearance since 2013)
UNH: 9-8 (5-7 against fully scholarshipped teams)
URI: 0-0
Richmond: 5-3 (none since 2016)
Stony Brook: 1-2 (0-2)
Towson: 3-3 (2-2) (none since 2013)
Nova: 2-3(1-3) None since 2016
W&M: 1-2 (0-2)

So, since 2011 the CAA is 33-32 in the playoffs. If you take away the undermanned teams, they're 25-28. 6 of those 12 teams don't have a win against a scholarshipped team in the playoffs. Three of the teams that do don't have one since at least 2016.

So yeah, I'll give you JMU and New Hampshire, and traditionally Nova/Richmond are pretty good and Maine/Towson each had one good year in the last decade plus. But everyone else is pretty forgettable and 3 of the 4 decent teams listed aren't going to make the playoffs.

It's an absolute joke that Massey has the entire conference as top 70. Again, stop taking Massey as gospel and it's pretty easy to see that it's flawed. It's helpful in certain contexts, but in others it's terrible.

[Mattymc727]

Why all the hand-wringing? #10 is no different than #24 the way our bracket is set up. #1-#8 are all that matter.

I agree. At first I thought "If UNH is the 10th best team in the country, the FCS is in trouble". However, doing a deeper look, the resumes are somewhat similar after 8.

The committee has not selected a bracket yet, so at this point, who cares? As others have said, UNH may lose Saturday and then this thread will drop to page 20.

[PaladinFan]

I agree. At first I thought "If UNH is the 10th best team in the country, the FCS is in trouble". However, doing a deeper look, the resumes are somewhat similar after 8.

The committee has not selected a bracket yet, so at this point, who cares? As others have said, UNH may lose Saturday and then this thread will drop to page 20.

I've said this a few times on the SoCon threads, but the FCS this year is an inch deep and mile wide.

Even then, a few of the "bubble" teams outside the top 10 will get their shot. UNH plays JMU. Montana State plays Montana. Wofford plays Furman. Illinois State plays SDSU.

So, each of those teams that may be just outside looking in, will have their chance to jump into the conversation.

[MacThor]

It honestly looks like they had to put "somebody" at #10 - so they went down the list, they tossed the Ivies, didn't want to put a fourth Big Sky or MVFC team in the Top 10, so UNH it is.

UNH also controls their own destiny as far as the AQ. I don't know how many of the other teams can say that at this point.

[F'N Hawks]

Just to repeat for everyone in the back: Furman hasn't beat a team with a winning record this year, but no talk about them being in Top 10. Huh.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Just to repeat for everyone in the back: Furman hasn't beat a team with a winning record this year, but no talk about them being in Top 10. Huh.

.....SELECTIVE ARGUIN'......AWK!

[MacThor]

I guess we want to revoke the CAA's elite status based on one down playoff year (in which they still put a team in the semifinals).

I like to track rolling 10 year periods - this accounts for the cyclical nature of many programs.

National Champions:
7 - MVFC (all one team)
2 - CAA
1 - Big Sky

Runners-Up:
3 - CAA
2 - MVFC
2 - Big Sky
2 - Southland
1 - OVC

Semi-finalists:
6 - CAA
4 - Southern
4 - Big Sky
3 - Southland
3 - MVFC

So, of 40 "Final Four" teams, 12 have come from MVFC, 11 from the CAA, and 7 from the Big Sky.
By far the greatest diversity of teams is from the CAA - 8 different teams are represented in that 11, while NDSU makes up the bulk of the MVFC and Eastern Washington the Big Sky.
Southland is of course Sam Houston only.
The Southern has only been represented in the Final Four by Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, both long gone to FBS.

[MR. CHICKEN]

......CAA......CAA.....CAA......CAA.......xsmashx. ..BRAWK!

[Bison56]

When we going to break out the rulers for this whos conference is better argument? xarguex

[kalm]

Seeding should have nothing to with geography which is another thing some people hammer the committee on because of a few isolated incidents ignoring the fact that it doesn't happen that way more often than it does. I find it hard to believe the committee does their vote and tallies up points to put their top 8 together (which they do the exact same way the AGS Poll and every other poll does) and then says "well, our #7 seed is closer geographically to our #3 seed than our #6 seed is so let's just tweak that and switch around #6 and #7 even though that's now how the vote came out".

They don't.

[kalm]

"Elite conferences" and FCS football are basically oxymoronic...

xrolleyesx

[MR. CHICKEN]

....WE NEED UH COURT....UH COMMON SENSE......WHIFF HAND PICKED JURORS....(MILLENIALS NEED NOT REPORT).......TA SETTLE......LONG RUNNIN'....HE SAID vs HE SAID's...xnodx:):D...AWK!

[Professor Chaos]

Just to repeat for everyone in the back: Furman hasn't beat a team with a winning record this year, but no talk about them being in Top 10. Huh.
Well, I have a hard time getting too upset about that when Furman is the consensus #9 in the AGS Poll (along with those other two polls also). I won't argue that they don't have quality wins but they have 2 good showings vs FBS teams only one FCS loss to The Citadel which isn't looking as bad as it did at the time it happened. They're among the least ugly of the mess of teams after the top 8 IMO.

[PaladinFan]

Just to repeat for everyone in the back: Furman hasn't beat a team with a winning record this year, but no talk about them being in Top 10. Huh.

Mercer had a winning record when they played Furman. So did Samford. ETSU was 2-2 coming off a win over the OVC's best team.

Furman also played 6-2 Georgia State and 5-3 Virginia Tech to a near draw. VT just lost at Notre Dame by 1.

How many FCS teams played two FBS teams to one possession games?

Again, critique Furman if you want. I don't care. Just tell me who you are going to put in there instead.

[F'N Hawks]

Mercer had a winning record when they played Furman. So did Samford. ETSU was 2-2 coming off a win over the OVC's best team.

Furman also played 6-2 Georgia State and 5-3 Virginia Tech to a near draw. VT just lost at Notre Dame by 1.

How many FCS teams played two FBS teams to one possession games?

Again, critique Furman if you want. I don't care. Just tell me who you are going to put in there instead.

Congratulations on your losses. It's Week 10 and none of the teams you beat have a winning record. That's all that needs to be said.

I am old enough to remember when that used to be a huge talking point around here when comparing teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

I hate to stick up for Furman, but my typical method of evaluating a team values recent success, not just their recent resume. Obviously, there are points where recent resume will override that other stuff, but some things you can't just check at the door.

In Furman's case, they made the playoffs a couple years ago, and last year, they lost to two playoff teams and Devlin Hodges. They had a top 10/15 win against Wofford. So far this season, they don't have any bad losses, have played a couple FBS teams close and boat-raced the teams they needed to.

Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is. They can only play the teams in front of them. When asking yourself if Furman is a top 10-15 team, you have to ask yourself what a top 10-15 team would do with their schedule. The Citadel loss is TBD, but the rest of their resume checks out. We have little to no reason to think they're any worse than prior seasons and there's potential for them to get better. If they lose to Wofford or VMI, that may be a different story.

[PaladinFan]

Congratulations on your losses. It's Week 10 and none of the teams you beat have a winning record. That's all that needs to be said.

I am old enough to remember when that used to be a huge talking point around here when comparing teams.

Again, who are you putting there?

Is there a team with such a clearly better resume that you'd bump Furman? Just a bunch of teams out there with a lot of wins over winning teams?

(there aren't)

[PaladinFan]

I hate to stick up for Furman, but my typical method of evaluating a team values recent success, not just their recent resume. Obviously, there are points where recent resume will override that other stuff, but some things you can't just check at the door.

In Furman's case, they made the playoffs a couple years ago, and last year, they lost to two playoff teams and Devlin Hodges. They had a top 10/15 win against Wofford. So far this season, they don't have any bad losses, have played a couple FBS teams close and boat-raced the teams they needed to.

Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is. They can only play the teams in front of them. When asking yourself if Furman is a top 10-15 team, you have to ask yourself what a top 10-15 team would do with their schedule. The Citadel loss is TBD, but the rest of their resume checks out. We have little to no reason to think they're any worse than prior seasons and there's potential for them to get better. If they lose to Wofford or VMI, that may be a different story.

Sure. If we lost to Wofford or VMI why would they be top 10?

I'm not suggesting that Furman is clearly a top 10 team. I'm just saying their resume is as good as any of the other bubble teams sitting around the top 10.

They were losses, but Furman was step for step with two FBS teams that have turned out to be pretty respectable in 2019. Georgia State may end up winning the SunBelt.

If we don't dock South Dakota State for a close loss to NDSU, why dock Furman for close losses to good FBS teams?

[MacThor]

When we going to break out the rulers for this whos conference is better argument? xarguex

MVFC and Big Sky are undoubtedly the two better conferences this season. One poster's unrelenting obsession with bashing the CAA was getting tired.
You don't put the most teams in the Final Four by exclusively beating up on cupcakes.

[Reign of Terrier]

Another thing that's not talked about a lot is the fact that most teams don't play/beat more than 2-3 teams with a winning record any given year.

I'm not going to show my work here, but the top 5-7 play more than 5 teams with winning records (some of them FBS), most teams are playing ~ 4 teams with a winning record tops.

What people won't like is if you look at the winning record standard, that really helps the conferences that play most of their games in conference (Southland) or have a lot of parity, regardless of overall quality (Southland/CAA)

Put another way, beating Youngstown State is a win against a team with a winning record. it can be a deceiving measure.

[Reign of Terrier]

MVFC and Big Sky are undoubtedly the two better conferences this season. One poster's unrelenting obsession with bashing the CAA was getting tired.
You don't put the most teams in the Final Four by exclusively beating up on cupcakes.

So first, I'm unrelentingly bashing the MVFC and now I'm unrelentingly bashing the CAA.

A better explanation: you guys just aren't used to criticism.

Since the current seniors stepped on campus in 2016, the only CAA team not named JMU to make the semifinals was Maine. They're not making it back this year. There's lots of indicators that they won't get anyone else back to that level. Citing all-time semifinals appearances to support your argument is like me chest-beating App State, Georgia Southern, or Marshall's national championships, or even Furman's. Even if those teams were still in the Southern Conference, those titles are a distant memory. The same goes for the CAA's eliteness. Conferences and programs decline: just look at the ivys and all of their dusty national championships.

We're seeing that in the CAA.

[Dukie95]

Not get into this, and I KNOW YOU GUYS ARE ONLY TALKING FCS...but please don't forget, we do also have a somewhat nice win over a P5.......

Just saying.

And losses to two different CAA teams, so you aren't helping RoT's cause.

[PaladinFan]

Another thing that's not talked about a lot is the fact that most teams don't play/beat more than 2-3 teams with a winning record any given year.

I'm not going to show my work here, but the top 5-7 play more than 5 teams with winning records (some of them FBS), most teams are playing ~ 4 teams with a winning record tops.

What people won't like is if you look at the winning record standard, that really helps the conferences that play most of their games in conference (Southland) or have a lot of parity, regardless of overall quality (Southland/CAA)

Put another way, beating Youngstown State is a win against a team with a winning record. it can be a deceiving measure.

I think you make a good point.

Good teams are naturally going to have wins over teams with losing records because the winning teams are beating the losing teams.

[Reign of Terrier]

And losses to two different CAA teams, so you aren't helping RoT's cause.

The Citadel is the ETSU of this season.

I'm not going to sit here and tell you that the Socon is elite. We're not. We're probably a year away from playing our best ball (At least 6 of 9 teams look to bring back enough to improve next year). The only reason the Socon has 3 in discussion right now is because the Citadel is in the playoff discussion because of the GT win *even if they lose one more.* If they beat a no-name OVC or Big South team in GT's stead, they wouldn't be on the bubble with 5 losses (they have 4 right now, but I don't see losing to Wofford, provided Wofford is 8-3 or so, keeps them out). Outside of that win, the Socon is a two-bid league this year.

Maybe I'm biased against the Citadel because my team has beaten them 19 of 21 times, but I'm generally skeptical of their pedigree because they haven't gotten a quality OOC win since at least 2015. But the fact that the Citadel is the CAA's best OOC win, when VMI also accomplished that, doesn't say much in my eyes. That's not to say it absolutely doesn't say anything, but that soft anti-citadel bias colors my opinion. Now, if the CAA had beaten Wofford or Furman, that's a different story.

Really, you can finish third in the Socon if you get lucky and not be great. Wofford/Furman are at the top and Samford is somewhere between 3rd and 4th place, but because Samford likes to lay eggs the team that gets the luckiest among VMI/Mercer/ETSU/Western/The Citadel/Chattanooga is usually on that playoff bubble. To illustrate: Wofford and Furman are 1-5 against Samford over the last 3 years, but Wofford is 17-0 against the other 6 teams and Furman is 15-2. Last year it was ETSU (went 5-1 against Samford+the other 5 and stole one against Furman). This year, it will either be the Citadel (3-2 against Samford+ the other 5, with games against UTC and Wofford).

So, much like the CAA is cannibalizing itself after the top team(s), so is the Socon. The Citadel is in the midst of that so it's not surprising what's happened thus far. But I don't pretend we're elite just because half of the league are cannibals. CAA does.

[Herder]

I guess we want to revoke the CAA's elite status based on one down playoff year (in which they still put a team in the semifinals).

I like to track rolling 10 year periods - this accounts for the cyclical nature of many programs.

National Champions:
7 - MVFC (all one team)
2 - CAA
1 - Big Sky

Runners-Up:
3 - CAA
2 - MVFC
2 - Big Sky
2 - Southland
1 - OVC

Semi-finalists:
6 - CAA
4 - Southern
4 - Big Sky
3 - Southland
3 - MVFC

So, of 40 "Final Four" teams, 12 have come from MVFC, 11 from the CAA, and 7 from the Big Sky.
By far the greatest diversity of teams is from the CAA - 8 different teams are represented in that 11, while NDSU makes up the bulk of the MVFC and Eastern Washington the Big Sky.
Southland is of course Sam Houston only.
The Southern has only been represented in the Final Four by Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, both long gone to FBS.


Did you just use MVFC and Runner Up in the same sentence? That would require MVFC teams being on "Opposite" side of the bracket, and that is a rare occurrence. Your Runner Up Comparisons have been thrown out of the arguement.

[Redbird 4th & short]

CAA is well ahead of SoCon this year. IMO the cannibalization in CAA is a level above SoCon ... the 2-9 OOC record I cited of games Reign referenced is evidence of that. So I see CAA getting 4 teams for sure and SoCon getting 2 or maybe just 1, if one of those 2 slips. Just not a good year for SoCon.

Having hard time figuring out Southland ... they got undeserved 3 last year .. but look more deserving and deeper this year .. but hard to tell still but I can see them getting 3 this year due to huge bubble. Big Sky may have the best top 4 or 5, but MVFC has best top 2 or 3.

[Professor Chaos]

CAA is well ahead of SoCon this year. IMO the cannibalization in CAA is a level above SoCon ... the 2-9 OOC record I cited of games Reign referenced is evidence of that. So I see CAA getting 4 teams for sure and SoCon getting 2 or maybe just 1, if one of those 2 slips. Just not a good year for SoCon.

Having hard time figuring out Southland ... they got undeserved 3 last year .. but look more deserving and deeper this year .. but hard to tell still but I can see them getting 3 this year due to huge bubble. Big Sky may have the best top 4 or 5, but MVFC has best top 2 or 3.
The Southland is turning into a victim of their own success. It used to be that the top 2-4 teams were head and shoulders above everyone else so they racked up all the wins and got nice shiny W/L records to show off to the selection committee. Now I think those top 2-4 teams are just as good but the middle of the conference is much better than it used to be and is able to pick off those top teams every so often which starts to tarnish those W/L records at or near the top.

It's kind of the opposite in the MVFC this year. It used to be everyone in the MVFC except for maybe the bottom one or two teams was capable of pulling the upset of anyone else in the conference. This year the bottom 4 in the MVFC are all bad teams so the conference as a whole may benefit when it comes to number of playoff selections because it'll allow more teams to get to 7 and 8 wins.

[PaladinFan]

CAA is well ahead of SoCon this year. IMO the cannibalization in CAA is a level above SoCon ... the 2-9 OOC record I cited of games Reign referenced is evidence of that. So I see CAA getting 4 teams for sure and SoCon getting 2 or maybe just 1, if one of those 2 slips. Just not a good year for SoCon.

Having hard time figuring out Southland ... they got undeserved 3 last year .. but look more deserving and deeper this year .. but hard to tell still but I can see them getting 3 this year due to huge bubble. Big Sky may have the best top 4 or 5, but MVFC has best top 2 or 3.

I think much would have been different had Wofford won their game against either Samford or SC State.

Can't undo it, but those back to back losses just killed them in the polls.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Not to parse this too much ... but I dont think the "bubble" is worse this year. I'm fact I think it is possibly stronger and deeper this year. What I think everyone agrees about is that there seems to be pretty stark dropoff after the top 6 or 8. So the middle tier of team 9th thru 16th might be weaker or at least a lot more parity.

To me ... Big Sky, Colonial, and Southland might all be deeper though no better at top. Even MEAC looks deeper at top. Only Southern seems to have slipped overall. MVFC and OVC look about same at top, though MVFC depth has slipped.

Add it all up, and I think the bubble is going to be stronger this year .. certainly better than last year.

[KSUFAN]

I hate to stick up for Furman, but my typical method of evaluating a team values recent success, not just their recent resume. Obviously, there are points where recent resume will override that other stuff, but some things you can't just check at the door.

In Furman's case, they made the playoffs a couple years ago, and last year, they lost to two playoff teams and Devlin Hodges. They had a top 10/15 win against Wofford. So far this season, they don't have any bad losses, have played a couple FBS teams close and boat-raced the teams they needed to.

Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is. They can only play the teams in front of them. When asking yourself if Furman is a top 10-15 team, you have to ask yourself what a top 10-15 team would do with their schedule. The Citadel loss is TBD, but the rest of their resume checks out. We have little to no reason to think they're any worse than prior seasons and there's potential for them to get better. If they lose to Wofford or VMI, that may be a different story.

i have to disagree to an extent with your argument for furman! "Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is" is what you said. In a lot of cases this is true, in Furman's case I beg to differ. They dropped their game against KSU this year and added Point and CSU. You might think KSU is in the same league as these two schools I just mentioned but based on recent history we all know that's not the case. In Kennesaw's first 4 years of existence they are 5-2 against SOCON teams. I would argue that 17 point loss to Citadel at Home is a terrible loss. Though I do understand that some teams just match up better then others and I truly believe this is the case in this game. I do think that Furman is getting a lot of credit from past SOCON history and how strong the conference use to be. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Wofford wins out (Gets AQ) and Furman ends with 7 FCS wins against all teams with losing records. Next few weeks should be fun!

[PaladinFan]

Not to parse this too much ... but I dont think the "bubble" is worse this year. I'm fact I think it is possibly stronger and deeper this year. What I think everyone agrees about is that there seems to be pretty stark dropoff after the top 6 or 8. So the middle tier of team 9th thru 16th might be weaker or at least a lot more parity.

To me ... Big Sky, Colonial, and Southland might all be deeper though no better at top. Even MEAC looks deeper at top. Only Southern seems to have slipped overall. MVFC and OVC look about same at top, though MVFC depth has slipped.

Add it all up, and I think the bubble is going to be stronger this year .. certainly better than last year.

I guess the question is why do you think the SoCon has "slipped"?

Since the dawn of time, the SoCon has usually been a 2 or 3 bid league. Even when the conference was hands down the top group in FCS/IAA. This year they are probably a two bid league.

The SoCon is a round robin tournament. Sometimes they get docked for that. There are nationally relevant teams that can make the post season and don't even play the best teams in their own conference.

[PaladinFan]

i have to disagree to an extent with your argument for furman! "Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is" is what you said. In a lot of cases this is true, in Furman's case I beg to differ. They dropped their game against KSU this year and added Point and CSU. You might think KSU is in the same league as these two schools I just mentioned but based on recent history we all know that's not the case. In Kennesaw's first 4 years of existence they are 5-2 against SOCON teams. I would argue that 17 point loss to Citadel at Home is a terrible loss. Though I do understand that some teams just match up better then others and I truly believe this is the case in this game. I do think that Furman is getting a lot of credit from past SOCON history and how strong the conference use to be. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Wofford wins out (Gets AQ) and Furman ends with 7 FCS wins against all teams with losing records. Next few weeks should be fun!

If Furman beats VMI, they are almost certainly in the post season. You can wish it were different, but it won't be.

Furman added Point because they had a home game cancelled last season and a 12 game slate this year. That was a last minute addition and had nothing to do with Kennesaw. Besides, criticizing Point cuts both ways unless you forgot who KSU played in their opener.

You also failed to mention that Furman played two good FBS teams this year. So spare me the "weak schedule" talk. In fact, the weakest team Furman played this year (CSU) was probably the strongest team KSU played this year up until they were hammered by Monmouth. The fact that you'd criticize Furman's schedule after getting pummeled by the only decent team KSU has seen this season is peculiar.

[KSUFAN]

If Furman beats VMI, they are almost certainly in the post season. You can wish it were different, but it won't be.

Furman added Point because they had a home game cancelled last season and a 12 game slate this year. That was a last minute addition and had nothing to do with Kennesaw. Besides, criticizing Point cuts both ways unless you forgot who KSU played in their opener.

You also failed to mention that Furman played two good FBS teams this year. So spare me the "weak schedule" talk. In fact, the weakest team Furman played this year (CSU) was probably the strongest team KSU played this year up until they were hammered by Monmouth. The fact that you'd criticize Furman's schedule after getting pummeled by the only decent team KSU has seen this season is peculiar.

The only reason KSU had Point on their schedule was because Furman backed out of the game that had been scheduled since 2016! I have been very clear that KSU's schedule was terrible this year and explained the reason Rhineehardt and Point was on the schedule. Most of the KSU fans on this site have said the same thing.(Exceptt for Hooty) Fact remains Furman and Dusquene backed out of games that were on the books for a couple years. i am shocked you are now saying Georgia State is a "Good" FBS team. I hate to tell you the Sun Belt isn't a "good" conference. Bottomline is Furman has yet to beat a FCS team with a winning record.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The Southland is turning into a victim of their own success. It used to be that the top 2-4 teams were head and shoulders above everyone else so they racked up all the wins and got nice shiny W/L records to show off to the selection committee. Now I think those top 2-4 teams are just as good but the middle of the conference is much better than it used to be and is able to pick off those top teams every so often which starts to tarnish those W/L records at or near the top.

It's kind of the opposite in the MVFC this year. It used to be everyone in the MVFC except for maybe the bottom one or two teams was capable of pulling the upset of anyone else in the conference. This year the bottom 4 in the MVFC are all bad teams so the conference as a whole may benefit when it comes to number of playoff selections because it'll allow more teams to get to 7 and 8 wins.
Completely agree .. though they look stronger and more deserving this year than last. I just do not get how the committee sent two 6-4 Southland teams last year .. very fishy.

[Reign of Terrier]

CAA is well ahead of SoCon this year. IMO the cannibalization in CAA is a level above SoCon ... the 2-9 OOC record I cited of games Reign referenced is evidence of that. So I see CAA getting 4 teams for sure and SoCon getting 2 or maybe just 1, if one of those 2 slips. Just not a good year for SoCon.

Having hard time figuring out Southland ... they got undeserved 3 last year .. but look more deserving and deeper this year .. but hard to tell still but I can see them getting 3 this year due to huge bubble. Big Sky may have the best top 4 or 5, but MVFC has best top 2 or 3.

Wait, the Socon isn't 2-9 OOC. On the top of my head, we've beaten CSU (2x), GW, PC, Alabama A&M, Eastern Illinois, and Austin Peay.

Heck, our best OOC win is probably better than the CAAxcoffeex but I digress.

I've said it once and I'll say it again: since the field expanded to 24, the only time the socon hasn't gotten at least 2 in was the year none outside of the top team had 7 D1 wins (all had 5). If Wofford and furman win this weekend (they will), there will be at least two teams with 7 D1 wins.

If Richmond finishes 4th in the conference behind JMU, UNH, and Nova, the CAA will only get 3. Book it. It'll be kind of awkward for this elite conference if the Socon has just as many in...


i have to disagree to an extent with your argument for furman! "Teams can't help how weak or strong their schedule is" is what you said. In a lot of cases this is true, in Furman's case I beg to differ. They dropped their game against KSU this year and added Point and CSU. You might think KSU is in the same league as these two schools I just mentioned but based on recent history we all know that's not the case. In Kennesaw's first 4 years of existence they are 5-2 against SOCON teams. I would argue that 17 point loss to Citadel at Home is a terrible loss. Though I do understand that some teams just match up better then others and I truly believe this is the case in this game. I do think that Furman is getting a lot of credit from past SOCON history and how strong the conference use to be. It will be very interesting to see what happens if Wofford wins out (Gets AQ) and Furman ends with 7 FCS wins against all teams with losing records. Next few weeks should be fun!

Furman dropped their game with Kennesaw because Virginia Tech, their buy game, moved the game up to when the KSU game was originally scheduled (for ACC Network reasons). They didn't just drop it because they chickened out or didn't feel like playing. To make up, they added FBS Georgia State. They tried to schedule pioneer jacksonville, but from what I hear from one of Furman's freelance beat writers, JU had some unreasonable demands (Furman had to pay their travel, etc)

If Furman was truly getting credit for past socon history and "how strong the conference used to be" they would have gotten a playoff bid last year. They didn't. Furman football was fairly irrelevant from 2007-2016 (with 1 or 2 years being the exception) and Georgia Southern and App State were basically out of the FCS after 2012. I find it extremely unlikely that pollsters are suddenly remembering the likes of Ingle Martin and Jerome Felton or the association of Socon football with Armanti Edwards and Adrian Peterson, and much more likely that they remember they beat a top 10 team by 20 last year and made the playoffs the year before.

You can argue that a 17 point loss to the Citadel is bad, but the Citadel is a 6-4 team with a win over a P5 opponents. There are worse top 25 losses.


I guess the question is why do you think the SoCon has "slipped"?

Since the dawn of time, the SoCon has usually been a 2 or 3 bid league. Even when the conference was hands down the top group in FCS/IAA. This year they are probably a two bid league.

The SoCon is a round robin tournament. Sometimes they get docked for that. There are nationally relevant teams that can make the post season and don't even play the best teams in their own conference.

The Southern Conference got 3 bids only a few times in playoff history, but when the field expanded beyond 16 in 2010, it happened 3 times from 2010-2012. In 2013-2015, the conference was "bad" but still managed 5 bids in that time. Then in 2016-2017, it got 4 and 3 bids. They should have gotten 3 last year, but got royally hosed by the committee. If we only get two bids this year (we will get at least that), it's what we deserve, but in a "down" year, we very well could get 3.


If Furman beats VMI, they are almost certainly in the post season. You can wish it were different, but it won't be.



And if Wofford beats Mercer tomorrow and the Citadel beats Chattanooga, the socon will get at least one at-large bid.
You're not going to keep out a top 25 Wofford team, and you're not going to keep out an 8-4 Citadel team.

[Reign of Terrier]

The only reason KSU had Point on their schedule was because Furman backed out of the game that had been scheduled since 2016! I have been very clear that KSU's schedule was terrible this year and explained the reason Rhineehardt and Point was on the schedule. Most of the KSU fans on this site have said the same thing.(Exceptt for Hooty) Fact remains Furman and Dusquene backed out of games that were on the books for a couple years. i am shocked you are now saying Georgia State is a "Good" FBS team. I hate to tell you the Sun Belt isn't a "good" conference. Bottomline is Furman has yet to beat a FCS team with a winning record.

I know you guys think playing Kennesaw State is important, but Furman's not going to back out of over 300k for it

[Redbird 4th & short]

So hypothetically if UNH upsets JMU this weekend how high to they rise considering the committee's already absurdly high opinion of UNH? Top 4? Gotta be at least to #5.

Also, does this mean Delaware is very much still on the bubble at 4-5 with that win over UNH? They win out with wins against Stony Brook and Nova it seems like they've got a good shot.

EDIT: I guess it's also clear that bad losses don't seem to be much of a factor for the committee. Good news for teams like UND, Wofford, Austin Peay, SHSU, Nicholls, etc.
UNH could prove to be team on rise and truly earn a seed .. that wont change the perception. Of them getting 10th spot as of this week ... just not a good look for committee ... as if they were trying to make Marty look good after he left.

[WrenFGun]

UNH could prove to be team on rise and truly earn a seed .. that wont change the perception. Of them getting 10th spot as of this week ... just not a good look for committee ... as if they were trying to make Marty look good after he left.

The board ought to take a look at themselves and consider that they've been perenially underrating UNH this season. Furman looks like a good team, but there's nothing about their quality of wins that compares to UNH. I literally went through the exercise after the top 8, and the only teams that I thought should have been considered over UNH were Southern Illinois and North Dakota. Here's a recap I did on the UNH board:



Montana State's best win is over Southeast Missouri; they're 6-3 in the Big Sky and in 4th place.
Monmouth has beaten Albany and Kennesaw State, but the rest of the schedule is soft as butter and they lost by 20 to Montana.
Richmond is a reasonably compelling candidate, but they've lost to Elon and Fordham.
North Dakota has wins over Montana State and Sam Houston and they'd probably be my #9
SIU has a win over UMass, UTM and Youngstown and are fair competition.
ISU-R has the win over SIU but little else.


I don't see how in god's name teams like SEMO and UTM are being ranked above UNH. Hell, VILLANOVA was ranked above UNH in the last damn poll.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I guess the question is why do you think the SoCon has "slipped"?

Since the dawn of time, the SoCon has usually been a 2 or 3 bid league. Even when the conference was hands down the top group in FCS/IAA. This year they are probably a two bid league.

The SoCon is a round robin tournament. Sometimes they get docked for that. There are nationally relevant teams that can make the post season and don't even play the best teams in their own conference.
Well primarily by my reliance on Massey Composite of 40+ polls. But when Reign listed his examples of how much tougher the SoCon OOC schedule was compared to CAA ... he listed 11 tougher OOC games .. well it wasn't very tough SOS and SoCon went 2-9 despite playing 7 of 11 at home. Just not a good OOC performance.

[Reign of Terrier]

Well primarily by my religious faith in Massey Composite of 40+ polls. But when Reign listed his examples of how much tougher the SoCon OOC schedule was compared to CAA ... he listed 11 tougher OOC games .. well it wasn't very tough SOS and SoCon went 2-9 despite playing 7 of 11 at home. Just not a good OOC performance.

Socon went 7-11 in OOC games. Home field advantage is irrelevant in the socon, Massey even says as much. 21 of 25 teams the CAA played were in the pioneer, patriot, NEC, Ivy, or were very bad MEAC teams. The Socon: 2 of 17

[Sader87]

Without rereading almost 20 pages of this, why was this done as a Top 10 instead of a Top 8 (seeded teams)? Why the 2 extra teams? Teams to move into the Top 8 if a couple teams lose etc? Why not a Top 15 or Top 20?

OK, I'll stop asking questions now :)

[Redbird 4th & short]

Responding to Reigns early post .. you are purposely taking my post out of context. I did not say you only went 2-9 OOC ... I mean of course you've played more OOC games than that. I was obviously responding directly to your post citing those 11 games as evidence you play a tougher SOS than CAA .. by citing how they all had winning records .. which you ironically once lectured me about the importance of not relying simply on records .. well it was not a tough SOS at all and I simply corrected your convenient reference to being under .500 to the more accurate 2-9 record ... which is why Massey Composite has SoCon ranked so low ... hard to argue otherwise.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm gonna put the recent podcast about the Selection Committee in here for a few of you so as to clear up some misunderstandings some people have on the process.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvZ3RhbGtyYWRpby5jb20vdGhl LWZjcy13ZWRnZS9wb2RjYXN0

[Professor Chaos]

Without rereading almost 20 pages of this, why was this done as a Top 10 instead of a Top 8 (seeded teams)? Why the 2 extra teams? Teams to move into the Top 8 if a couple teams lose etc? Why not a Top 15 or Top 20?

OK, I'll stop asking questions now :)
Good question... I guess to show who the next few teams on the cusp of being seeded are or, in the case of NC A&T being in the top 10 last year, if one of the top 8 is a team that likely won't be in the playoffs who's next in line to slide up.

I'd love to see them expand their release to top 15 or 20 or just go all out and show their top 25. I'm pretty sure they start voting as a committee for a full top 25 in mid-October and they just pull the top 10 out for this release. Let's see all 25 to get an idea of who they see as the at-large teams at the time as well.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm gonna put the recent podcast about the Selection Committee in here for a few of you so as to clear up some misunderstandings some people have on the process.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvZ3RhbGtyYWRpby5jb20vdGhl LWZjcy13ZWRnZS9wb2RjYXN0
This is a great long conversation with someone on the selection committee. I'd suggest anyone who questions how informed of unbiased the committee is gives this a listen before you sling criticism their way. They put in a lot of effort to be as fair and reasoned as they can be when determining seeds and selecting at-large teams.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Socon went 7-11 in OOC games. Home field advantage is irrelevant in the socon, Massey even says as much. 21 of 25 teams the CAA played were in the pioneer, patriot, NEC, Ivy, or were very bad MEAC teams. The Socon: 2 of 17
Home field is irrelevant in SoCon ?? Since when ? And were talking about all OOC games not Socon conf games.

You picked the 11 game OOC sample, not me.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Good question... I guess to show who the next few teams on the cusp of being seeded are or, in the case of NC A&T being in the top 10 last year, if one of the top 8 is a team that likely won't be in the playoffs who's next in line to slide up.

I'd love to see them expand their release to top 15 or 20 or just go all out and show their top 25. I'm pretty sure they start voting as a committee for a full top 25 in mid-October and they just pull the top 10 out for this release. Let's see all 25 to get an idea of who they see as the at-large teams at the time as well.
Top 25 would be a lot harder and show too many cards possibly.

I'd like to see their top 12s for 3 weeks prior to final game. So this year ... after games 9, 10, and 11. I think all involved would benefit considerably from 3 weeks of transparency and scrutiny of publishing a top 12 three times before the last game is played and they close their doors to discuss and vote.

[Reign of Terrier]

Responding to Reigns early post .. you are purposely taking my post out of context. I did not say you only went 2-9 OOC ... I mean of course you've played more OOC games than that. I was obviously responding directly to your post citing those 11 games as evidence you play a tougher SOS than CAA .. by citing how they all had winning records .. which you ironically once lectured me about the importance of not relying simply on records .. well it was not a tough SOS at all and I simply corrected your convenient reference to being under .500 to the more accurate 2-9 record ... which is why Massey Composite has SoCon ranked so low ... hard to argue otherwise.

It's kinda dumb to look just compare a portion of the schedules. Quite literally 84% of the CAA's OOC is against teams that play in one-bid leagues, are 1-win MEAC teams, or don't play in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Socon has played ~9 games against teams still technically on the bubble. This is a different argument from saying "put team x in the valley or put valley team x in x conference and this happens." Quite frankly, the CAA beat up a weak OOC schedule compared to other conferences by the portion of teams relatively undermanned or just bad, and in spite of scarce recent playoff success and inconsistency in conference play, claim elite status. Other conferences play tougher OOC, are more consistent, and in some cases have success by more than one team (see MVFC and Big Sky), but the CAA looks pretty meh in comparison.

Massey has lots of problems that are on its face wrong, and the fact that you take it as gospel is a huge flaw that you never address. Do you think UC Davis is #10? Eastern Washington at #15? This many CAA teams in the top 40? Really? AGS voters don't even believe that.

[Reign of Terrier]

Home field is irrelevant in SoCon ?? Since when ? And were talking about all OOC games not Socon conf games.
.

All games. The only correlation is when Furman and Wofford play (only one away team has won since 2008). Streaks are pretty consistent and say more about the teams that play. Mercer, VMI and Western don't have a home field advantage because they typically lose. Whatever advantage ETSU had last year was reversed this year. The Citadel loses close games both on the road and away. Samford consistently beats Wofford and loses to Chattanooga, no matter the location. Chattanooga plays some teams like Wofford worse at home. The only teams that appear to have any sort of advantage are Wofford/Furman in the last couple years, and even then that's more likely because they are good, not because there's a crowd of <7k there to cheer them on against a team that almost certainly didn't fly to get there.

[Redbird 4th & short]

It's kinda dumb to look just compare a portion of the schedules. Quite literally 84% of the CAA's OOC is against teams that play in one-bid leagues, are 1-win MEAC teams, or don't play in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Socon has played ~9 games against teams still technically on the bubble. This is a different argument from saying "put team x in the valley or put valley team x in x conference and this happens." Quite frankly, the CAA beat up a weak OOC schedule compared to other conferences by the portion of teams relatively undermanned or just bad, and in spite of scarce recent playoff success and inconsistency in conference play, claim elite status. Other conferences play tougher OOC, are more consistent, and in some cases have success by more than one team (see MVFC and Big Sky), but the CAA looks pretty meh in comparison.

Massey has lots of problems that are on its face wrong, and the fact that you take it as gospel is a huge flaw that you never address. Do you think UC Davis is #10? Eastern Washington at #15? This many CAA teams in the top 40? Really? AGS voters don't even believe that.
Again.. you picked the 11 games not me.

And again... Massey Composite is the average of 40+ poll's including Stats, FCP, and AGS .. plus 40 other computer based systems that run the gamut. Massey is just 1 of the 40+ .

[Reign of Terrier]

Again.. you picked the 11 games not me.



I didn't pick ****, you hijacked my post to rebut an argument I wasn't making

[Professor Chaos]

Top 25 would be a lot harder and show too many cards possibly.

I'd like to see their top 12s for 3 weeks prior to final game. So this year ... after games 9, 10, and 11. I think all involved would benefit considerably from 3 weeks of transparency and scrutiny of publishing a top 12 three times before the last game is played and they close their doors to discuss and vote.
What's wrong with showing their cards? The CFP committee does it and there's a lot more external pressure on them than there would be on the FCS selection committee.

And it wouldn't be that hard. I'm pretty sure they're doing a top 25 vote already which is where this top 10 they released Wednesday came from.

[ElCid]

And losses to two different CAA teams, so you aren't helping RoT's cause.

Well two one score losses, one on the road, to Top 25 teams is not horrible. Especially considering we were picked 7th in preseason SOCON. And that P5 win STILL looms large and was a win not accounted for. Just keeping the numbers right and I wasn't weighing in either way.

[R.A.]

Some CAAs load up on the MEAC's weaker programs in the regular season, Towson/ Morgan State, Delaware/ Delaware State... but when a Strong MEAC plays a CAA team in the regular season, the games are competitive... Elon/ A&T '13, '14,'15 & '19

[Professor Chaos]

Some CAAs load up on the MEAC's weaker programs in the regular season, Towson/ Morgan State, Delaware/ Delaware State... but when a Strong MEAC plays a CAA team in the regular season, the games are competitive... Elon/ A&T '13, '14,'15 & '19
Elon was not a good team in '13, '14, and '15. They were 2-10 in 2013, 1-11 in 2014, and 4-7 in 2015. How good they are this year is still in question. They just gave W&M their first CAA win in a game where had they gotten a single point in either of the first two OTs they would've won the game. Outside of the Curt Cignetti years in 2017 and 2018 Elon has basically been a dumpster fire since joining the CAA.

[Redbird 4th & short]

What's wrong with showing their cards? The CFP committee does it and there's a lot more external pressure on them than there would be on the FCS selection committee.

And it wouldn't be that hard. I'm pretty sure they're doing a top 25 vote already which is where this top 10 they released Wednesday came from.

they put virtually very little, if any, effort into their top 25 voting each week. I think the idea is not to fully disclose who they would pick before they actually have to pick them. I just think doing this for all 24 teams is much harder than say 10 or 12 teams. I like 12, because it gives more an idea of who they think is on top 8 bubble .. and ti can be scrutinized ... like the reaction to UNH being number 10. It would be nice to see 11 and 12 IMO for that reason. To me, getting top 8 right and bottom 4 bubble teams right is the hardest and most important. That is where all the debate is and should be.

[kalm]

they put virtually very little, if any, effort into their top 25 voting each week. I think the idea is not to fully disclose who they would pick before they actually have to pick them. Doing this for all 24 teams is much harder than say 10 or 12 teams. I like 12, because it gives more an idea of who they think is on top 8 bubble .. and ti can be scrutinized ... like the reaction to UNH being number 10. It would be nice to see 11 and 12 IMO for that reason. To me, getting top 8 right and bottom 4 bubble teams right is the hardest and most important. That is where all the debate is and should be.

Go listen to the Wedge Podcast interview of committee member, Kent Haslam (UM) and your view of how much consideration they put into the process might change. They watch a ton of football, communicate in a couple of conference calls every week, and have built in redundancies insuring exposure for every conference and playoff contender.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Go listen to the Wedge Podcast interview of committee member, Kent Haslam (UM) and your view of how much consideration they put into the process might change. They watch a ton of football, communicate in a couple of conference calls every week, and have built in redundancies insuring exposure for every conference and playoff contender.
will do, thanks for heads up.

But my initial reaction no matter what they say is ... yet last year, they still gave CAA 6 teams including a 6-4 team and gave Southland the same # teams as MVFC including two 6-4 teams, and seemed to ignore how weak most of 7-3 ETSUs wins were. I have acknowldged before that they have improved a fair amount since the 2011-13 period when they were awful .. but even since then, there have still been some slights like last year.

I'll take a listen at some point this weekend.

[PaladinFan]

will do, thanks for heads up.

But my initial reaction no matter what they say is ... yet last year, they still gave CAA 6 teams including a 6-4 team and gave Southland the same # teams as MVFC including two 6-4 teams, and seemed to ignore how weak most of 7-3 ETSUs wins were. I have acknowldged before that they have improved a fair amount since the 2011-13 period when they were awful .. but even since then, there have still been some slights like last year.

I'll take a listen at some point this weekend.

What does "weak" wins even mean?

[F'N Hawks]

What does "weak" wins even mean?

Is that "quality losses" little brother?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Go listen to the Wedge Podcast interview of committee member, Kent Haslam (UM) and your view of how much consideration they put into the process might change. They watch a ton of football, communicate in a couple of conference calls every week, and have built in redundancies insuring exposure for every conference and playoff contender.


And from that, they concluded that UNH was #10?

xeyebrowx

[PaladinFan]

Is that "quality losses" little brother?

I don't look at weak wins or quality losses. I watch the games and the teams playing them.

I get it. You all have a SoCon thing. That's fine. I don't care.

My point is make an argument for who you want to replace Furman with and why. You haven't, because you can't.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I don't look at weak wins or quality losses. I watch the games and the teams playing them.

I get it. You all have a SoCon thing. That's fine. I don't care.

My point is make an argument for who you want to replace Furman with and why. You haven't, because you can't.


He cannot. And wont.

Furman deserves to be in the top 10. Pretty easy IMO.

[F'N Hawks]

I don't look at weak wins or quality losses. I watch the games and the teams playing them.

I get it. You all have a SoCon thing. That's fine. I don't care.

My point is make an argument for who you want to replace Furman with and why. You haven't, because you can't.
It was a joke. I hate the terms quality loss, weak win, etc

[F'N Hawks]

Since you called me out - Montana State had a better resume than Furman. There is one. Boom, done.

Hell, why wouldn't SEMO be ranked right up there with Furman based on what has actually transpired in 2019?

[POD Knows]

It was a joke. I hate the terms quality loss, weak win, etcThat is because you have so many of those. :D

[PaladinFan]

Since you called me out - Montana State had a better resume than Furman. There is one. Boom, done.

Hell, why wouldn't SEMO be ranked right up there with Furman based on what has actually transpired in 2019?

I'm not saying teams shouldn't be ranked up there with Furman. I've said pretty repeatedly that there are about 3 really good teams in the FCS this year and a bunch of "meh."

SEMO has had a good season. They do have a loss to Austin Peay. APSU lost to the current worst team in the SoCon.

I'm not arguing there are no teams that should be top 10 over Furman. I'm just saying they have as good an argument as anyone. There isn't a clearly better team that deserves that spot. No one got hosed to put Furman there.

Again, all of this will be resolved in the next few weeks - most of the "bubble teams" outside the top 10 will get their direct shot at a team inside the top 10. SEMO is one that won't have that shot.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Since you called me out - Montana State had a better resume than Furman. There is one. Boom, done.

Hell, why wouldn't SEMO be ranked right up there with Furman based on what has actually transpired in 2019?


Beating SEMO at home and getting curb stomped by Texas Tech is a better resume?

And getting beat by a mediocre UND team?

Sure.

[POD Knows]

Beating SEMO at home and getting curb stomped by Texas Tech is a better resume?

And getting beat by a mediocre UND team?

Sure.I would love to have MSU in the playoffs in Fargo, it would be as bad or worse than last year's smack down.

[F'N Hawks]

Beating SEMO at home and getting curb stomped by Texas Tech is a better resume?

And getting beat by a mediocre UND team?

Sure.

Now do Furman. Particularily the wins....

[ElCid]

Is that "quality losses" little brother?

There are a lot of top 10 teams or teams that stayed too long in the top ten, that lots of people touted due to their quality losses. Didn't hear a lot of complaining then. Too many folks like to be selective in their outrage.

[Professor Chaos]

Go listen to the Wedge Podcast interview of committee member, Kent Haslam (UM) and your view of how much consideration they put into the process might change. They watch a ton of football, communicate in a couple of conference calls every week, and have built in redundancies insuring exposure for every conference and playoff contender.
Wow, no kidding. They put in more effort than the majority of AGS poll voters do I'd bet.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I would love to have MSU in the playoffs in Fargo, it would be as bad or worse than last year's smack down.


It will probably be them or UND coming to Fargo in the 2nd round. Both teams will get curb stomped....xlolx

Crushing UND in the playoffs would be awesome! Then they can wonder how to close the gap for the next year....xlolx

[POD Knows]

It will probably be them or UND coming to Fargo in the 2nd round. Both teams will get curb stomped....xlolx

Crushing UND in the playoffs would be awesome! Then they can wonder how to close the gap for the next year....xlolxHaving to look at those hockey jerseyed rubes twice in one year is more than anyone should have to deal with.

[FU_Paladin08]

Since you called me out - Montana State had a better resume than Furman. There is one. Boom, done.

Hell, why wouldn't SEMO be ranked right up there with Furman based on what has actually transpired in 2019?

Polls value consistency and that’s why Furman is a consensus pick ahead of MSU and SEMO in all polls. MSU fell behind Furman with back to back losses in Weeks 7 and 9. SEMO fell behind after week 2. Furman has 1 FCS loss. That’s it. It’s been said many times before, you can’t control your conference schedule. All you can do is win those games. It sounds like no SoCon team should be allowed in the top 10 this year by your logic. Heck, why isn’t the top 10 just MVFC, JMU, and Weber?

I guess there’s no convincing you since you keep bringing it up, but you are the only person that has issue here. NH is being talked about instead of Furman because they have been nowhere close to 10th until the committee put them there. Furman is in line with where the polls are.

[F'N Hawks]

Polls value consistency and that’s why Furman is a consensus pick ahead of MSU and SEMO in all polls. MSU fell behind Furman with back to back losses in Weeks 7 and 9. SEMO fell behind after week 2. Furman has 1 FCS loss. That’s it. It’s been said many times before, you can’t control your conference schedule. All you can do is win those games. It sounds like no SoCon team should be allowed in the top 10 this year by your logic. Heck, why isn’t the top 10 just MVFC, JMU, and Weber?

I guess there’s no convincing you since you keep bringing it up, but you are the only person that has issue here. NH is being talked about instead of Furman because they have been nowhere close to 10th until the committee put them there. Furman is in line with where the polls are.

That's fair. I remember hearing/reading many, many times about having to beat teams with winning records, who have you beat, etc. It appears that isn't as important in 2019. Moving on.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't look at weak wins or quality losses. I watch the games and the teams playing them.

I get it. You all have a SoCon thing. That's fine. I don't care.

My point is make an argument for who you want to replace Furman with and why. You haven't, because you can't.

so there is no difference in losing to NDSU by 3 and beating VMI by 3 ... loss is a loss and win is a win ?? Is it really that simple ??

Then lets just sort all the results on record and pick the 24 best records and be done with it. Don't even need a committee for that.

[Houndawg]

It will probably be them or UND coming to Fargo in the 2nd round. Both teams will get curb stomped....xlolx

Crushing UND in the playoffs would be awesome! Then they can wonder how to close the gap for the next year....xlolx

weight room

[Houndawg]

That's fair. I remember hearing/reading many, many times about having to beat teams with winning records, who have you beat, etc. It appears that isn't as important in 2019. Moving on.

WTF is it with New Hampshire? Whatever it isn't visible in the schedule

[dewey]

Having to look at those hockey jerseyed rubes twice in one year is more than anyone should have to deal with.

Well at least they can use the same "play us in hockey" or whatever sign.

Dewey

[dbackjon]

1. NDSU - WON vs WIU 57-21
2. JMU - WON vs New Hampshire 54-16
3. Weber St - Won vs North Dakota 30-27
4. SDSU - LOST to Illinois State 27-18
5. Sacramento St - WON vs NAU 38-34
6. UNI - vs ISUb - (17-9 4th)
7. Central Arkansas LOST to SELA 34-0
8. Montana - WON vs Idaho 42-17
9. Furman - WON vs VMI 60-21
10. New Hampshire - LOST to JMU 54-16

[dbackjon]

NDSU - WON vs WIU 57-21
2. JMU - WON vs New Hampshire 54-16
3. Weber St - Won vs North Dakota 30-27
4. SDSU - LOST to Illinois State 27-18
5. Sacramento St - WON vs NAU 38-34
6. UNI - WON vs Indiana State 17-9
7. Central Arkansas LOST to SELA 34-0
8. Montana - WON vs Idaho 42-17
9. Furman - WON vs VMI 60-21
10. New Hampshire - LOST to JMU 54-16


Three of the top 10 lost, two badly
Two of the top 10 squeaked by

[Redbird 4th & short]

no way... never count Marty out
How about now ?

Now watch them move UNH ahead of UCA after today.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber State
4. Sacramento State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Montana
7. Illinois State
8. Furman
9. South Dakota State
10. Wofford

I think SEMO, San Diego and CCSU all have claims to the #10 spot. Not like it really matters anyway....

[Redbird 4th & short]

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber State
4. Sacramento State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Montana
7. Illinois State
8. Furman
9. South Dakota State
10. Wofford

I think SEMO, San Diego and CCSU all have claims to the #10 spot. Not like it really matters anyway....

San Diego ?? What do you base this on ? Are we just totally ignoring SOS now ? They are 6-2 with 2 losses to teams who will not even make playoffs.

CCSU has no business anywhere near #10 .. unlike San Diego they have not played anyone who will even sniff playoff bubble this year. They beat St Francis by just 7 today. Their best win is over Sacred Heart who Massey Composite ranks #80. All other wins are against worse teams, some by small margins.


Top 10 ??? Name one quality win .. or one quality opponent ?





Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat 11-2312:00.PM.ET
at
Duquesne (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2272&s=308075)
59(6-2)
68 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999046)
28
21



Sat 10-12
at
Columbia (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1766&s=308075)
68(2-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999040)
24
14



Sat 10-05
at
Sacred Heart (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6718&s=308075)
78(5-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999039)
28
3



Sat 08-31
at
Fordham (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2682&s=308075)
82(3-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027125)
26
23



Sat 11-1612:00.PM.ET

Robert Morris (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6588&s=308075)
94(5-4)
92 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027127)
34
13



Sat 11-0912:00.PM.ET

St Francis PA (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6791&s=308075)
96(4-5)
87 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999044)
30
14



Sat 11-02
at
Wagner (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8500&s=308075)
109(1-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999043)
27
13



Sat 10-19

Bryant (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=950&s=308075)
115(2-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930998829)
52
14



Sat 09-14
at
Valparaiso (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=308075)
117(1-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999037)
42
13



Sat 09-07

Merrimack (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4682&s=308075)
118(4-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027126)
40
37



Sat 10-26

LIU Post (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2008&s=308075)
121(0-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999042)
28 0

[POD Knows]

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber State
4. Sacramento State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Montana
7. Illinois State
8. Furman
9. South Dakota State
10. Wofford

I think SEMO, San Diego and CCSU all have claims to the #10 spot. Not like it really matters anyway....SEMO maybe but not those other two, they have played NOBODY.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

CCSU has no business anywhere near #10 .. they have played no one anywhere near the top 25. They beat St Francis by just 7 today. Their best win is over Sacred Heart who Massey Composite ranks #80.

Top 10 ??? Name one quality win .. or one quality opponent ?





Date

Opponent

Result
PF
PA



Sat 11-2312:00.PM.ET
at
Duquesne (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2272&s=308075)
59(6-2)
68 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999046)
28
21



Sat 10-12
at
Columbia (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1766&s=308075)
68(2-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999040)
24
14



Sat 10-05
at
Sacred Heart (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6718&s=308075)
78(5-4)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999039)
28
3



Sat 08-31
at
Fordham (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2682&s=308075)
82(3-6)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027125)
26
23



Sat 11-1612:00.PM.ET

Robert Morris (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6588&s=308075)
94(5-4)
92 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027127)
34
13



Sat 11-0912:00.PM.ET

St Francis PA (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6791&s=308075)
96(4-5)
87 % (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999044)
30
14



Sat 11-02
at
Wagner (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8500&s=308075)
109(1-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999043)
27
13



Sat 10-19

Bryant (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=950&s=308075)
115(2-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930998829)
52
14



Sat 09-14
at
Valparaiso (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=308075)
117(1-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999037)
42
13



Sat 09-07

Merrimack (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4682&s=308075)
118(4-5)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=931027126)
40
37



Sat 10-26

LIU Post (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2008&s=308075)
121(0-8)
W (https://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=930999042)
28 0





I look at CCSU similar to Colgate last year. If CCSU goes 11-1 (9-1 in 'Gate's case) with their only loss being a competitive effort against a FBS team then the committee will give the Devils a legit look. Especially with so many other teams who have proven they can puke on themselves against just about all levels of competition. The Devils SOS will improve a little the last two games since Robert Morris and Duquesne at least "decent". CCSU's schedule this year is imo better than Colgate's last year. The Raiders didn't play a single FCS team with a winning record in 2018 until the playoffs!!

These smaller conference teams are never going to have the strength of schedule as the power conference teams. The deck is stacked against them. I think you have to reward them for winning. If CCSU goes 11-1 (11 D1 FCS wins) the committee will absolutely give them serious consideration for the #8 seed. And rightfully so imo.

[wapiti]

1. NDSU
2. JMU
3. Weber State
4. Sacramento State
5. Northern Iowa
6. Montana
7. Illinois State
8. Furman
9. South Dakota State
10. Wofford

I think SEMO, San Diego and CCSU all have claims to the #10 spot. Not like it really matters anyway....


MSU beat up SEMO

[dbackjon]

MSU beat up SEMO


Yup - 7-3 (7-2 FCS) Montana State has a better claim than that group - with a 21 point win over SEMO. SEMO is also 7-3, but 6-2 FCS

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

MSU beat up SEMO

I get that. I probably should have listed Austin Peay too as they hold the tie-breaker over SEMO.

My reasoning behind the OVC team is the conference champion factor. The selection committee has generally rewarded teams for winning their league. The playoff bracket is not set up in a cut and dry manner. It never has been. There's clearly politics involved. The minutia of that aspect combined with actual game results always creates a few surprises.

I'll still firmly believe that should CCSU finish 11-1 they get the 8th seed. The precedent was set by Colgate last year. Plus, Duquesne's playoff win over Towson last year actually happened. How much that matters is anyone's guess.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I look at CCSU similar to Colgate last year. If CCSU goes 11-1 (9-1 in 'Gate's case) with their only loss being a competitive effort against a FBS team then the committee will give the Devils a legit look. Especially with so many other teams who have proven they can puke on themselves against just about all levels of competition. The Devils SOS will improve a little the last two games since Robert Morris and Duquesne at least "decent". CCSU's schedule this year is imo better than Colgate's last year. The Raiders didn't play a single FCS team with a winning record in 2018 until the playoffs!!

These smaller conference teams are never going to have the strength of schedule as the power conference teams. The deck is stacked against them. I think you have to reward them for winning. If CCSU goes 11-1 (11 D1 FCS wins) the committee will absolutely give them serious consideration for the #8 seed. And rightfully so imo.

They just beat St Francis by 7 .. if we did that, everyone would be talking about our playoff hopes being over.

Top 8 seed .. seriously ?? You really need to raise the bar some.

[katss07]

If CCSU gets the 8 seed, then just cancel the first three rounds of the playoffs and make it a 7 team tournament.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

They just beat St Francis by 7 .. if we did that, everyone would be talking about our playoff hopes being over.

Top 8 seed .. seriously ?? You really need to raise the bar some.

I get that. I just think the power conference fans are missing the fact that they'll be 11-0 against D1 FCS competition. There's a slippery slope in the committee room imo if you don't reward a team for that achievement.

I have no real horse in the race but I try to think without a bias based on how things have tended to work in the past. We'll see how things shake out.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

If CCSU gets the 8 seed, then just cancel the first three rounds of the playoffs and make it a 7 team tournament.

There only needs to be a 4 team playoff this year.

The 8 seed or their opponent is going to get sent to NDSU and get slaughtered. Just like Colgate last year.

It's the perfect irrelevant reward for a small conference team who had a great season. Keeps everyone in the room happy....

[Redbird 4th & short]

I get that. I just think the power conference fans are missing the fact that they'll be 11-0 against D1 FCS competition. There's a slippery slope in the committee room imo if you don't reward a team for that achievement.

I have no real horse in the race but I try to think without a bias based on how things have tended to work in the past. We'll see how things shake out.
so youre saying they should reward teams who play absolutely nobody in or out of conference ??

the slippery slope is rewarding records with zero regard for SOS and margins.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

so youre saying they should reward teams who play absolutely nobody in or out of conference ??

the slippery slope is rewarding records with zero regard for SOS and margins.

Neither did Colgate last year. Time will tell....

I don't think CCSU getting the #8 at 11-1 would honestly be much of a reward at all. But from an optics/politics standpoint it would be. I think playing a home first round game and then should the Devils win getting sent to maybe the 5 or 6 seed would be a much better path.

You do not want to get sent to Fargo. That 8 seed and the two teams playing to travel to the 8 seed have a death sentence.

[kalm]

I get that. I probably should have listed Austin Peay too as they hold the tie-breaker over SEMO.

My reasoning behind the OVC team is the conference champion factor. The selection committee has generally rewarded teams for winning their league. The playoff bracket is not set up in a cut and dry manner. It never has been. There's clearly politics involved. The minutia of that aspect combined with actual game results always creates a few surprises.

I'll still firmly believe that should CCSU finish 11-1 they get the 8th seed. The precedent was set by Colgate last year. Plus, Duquesne's playoff win over Towson last year actually happened. How much that matters is anyone's guess.

But Colgate also had 2 OOC wins against the CAA last year.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Neither did Colgate last year. Time will tell....

I don't think CCSU getting the #8 at 11-1 would honestly be much of a reward at all. But from an optics/politics standpoint it would be. I think playing a home first round game and then should the Devils win getting sent to maybe the 5 or 6 seed would be a much better path.

You do not want to get sent to Fargo. That 8 seed and the two teams playing to travel to the 8 seed have a death sentence.


Send CCSU to Fargo this year. I doubt it will happen but new blood/teams is nice instead of western teams.

If SDSU loses to UNI, high probability they come to Fargo. If 5 Valley make it in chances are the Bison could see multiple Valley teams on their way to Frisco.

[X-Factor]

NDSU - WON vs WIU 57-21
2. JMU - WON vs New Hampshire 54-16
3. Weber St - Won vs North Dakota 30-27
4. SDSU - LOST to Illinois State 27-18
5. Sacramento St - WON vs NAU 38-34
6. UNI - WON vs Indiana State 17-9
7. Central Arkansas LOST to SELA 34-0
8. Montana - WON vs Idaho 42-17
9. Furman - WON vs VMI 60-21
10. New Hampshire - LOST to JMU 54-16


Three of the top 10 lost, two badly
Two of the top 10 squeaked by

And to add to that I wouldn’t say UNIs win was inspiring. ISUb had first and goal at the 5 before imploding with 3 penalties in a row and rounding that out with an end zone turnover.

The depth we have in FCS this year just seems really weak

[aceinthehole]

I don't see CCSU getting a seed at all. If they would have won at EMU, maybe you can make the case, but the fact is it is a loss and a blemish in the strongest game on the schedule.

I do think that you will see CCSU's numbers (Masey, Sagarin, SOS) go up after the last 2 games. Fact of the matter is our most competitive league opponents are our final 3.

Now, I know bids (financial guarantees) are what dictates home games in the first round, but clearly it would be nice to see CCSU rewarded with a HOME game vs. the PL champ or last CAA at-large.

Based on Central's record this year and last season's NEC win at Towson, I think it is a little unfair to send us on the road, but I know that is a $$$ decision.

This season will mark the NEC's 10th appearance in the playoffs and we have only managed to get 1 HOME game (2012 - Wagner vs. Colgate). The NEC is 1-0 at home in the playoffs :)

[aceinthehole]

Here would be my updated Top-10:


North Dakota St. (10-1, 6-0 MVFC)
James Madison (9-1, 6-0 CAA)
Weber St. (8-2, 6-0 Big Sky)
Sacramento St. (7-3, 5-1 Big Sky)
Montana (8-2, 5-1 Big Sky)
Northern Iowa (7-3, 5-1 MVFC)
Illinois St. (7-3, 4-2 MVFC)
South Dakota St. (7-3, 4-2 MVFC)
Furman (7-3, 6-1 SoCon)
Montana St. (7-3, 4-1 Big Sky)