Week 10 Bracketology

[Professor Chaos]

College Sports Madness (I believe this one is including projected results from the rest of the season)
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology


NoBowls.com (this is his take on the field in the playoffs started next week)
http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png


My take if the playoffs started next week (autobid is the first team listed for each conference):

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Nicholls
OVC (3): UT Martin, Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
SOCON (1): Furman
Big South (1): Monmouth
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Nicholls
First 4 out: Wofford, Richmond, Kennesaw St, Stony Brook


Holy Cross @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #8 Central Arkansas
UT Martin @ Sam Houston St at #5 Sacramento St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 South Dakota St
San Diego @ Montana St at #3 Weber St
Furman @ Nicholls at #6 Montana
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #7 Northern Iowa
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James Madison

[BisonTru]

Three from the OVC??? None named JSU. Hmm....


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[Schism55]

Three from the OVC??? None named JSU. Hmm....


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Strange Days.....

[crusader11]

Holy Cross wouldn’t go to North Dakota.

PL auto bid almost always stays somewhere in the region and would almost assuredly play a CAA school.

[Bison56]

If Weber wins out you dont think they would be 2 seed? Way better resume than JMU imo.

[Professor Chaos]

Holy Cross wouldn’t go to North Dakota.

PL auto bid almost always stays somewhere in the region and would almost assuredly play a CAA school.
Somebody has to get out of the NE. There's a cluster of 5 schools up there in my current projection (Nova, Monmouth, Holy Cross, CCSU, and UNH) so they'd have to fly one of those teams out of there. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one that would be.


If Weber wins out you dont think they would be 2 seed? Way better resume than JMU imo.
Yeah, better wins especially if they pick up that roadie in Missoula. I'd probably lean towards Weber St at #2 if that happens. Only thing JMU would have is the extra win since Weber St played two FBS teams.

[cx500d]

Holy Cross wouldn’t go to North Dakota.

PL auto bid almost always stays somewhere in the region and would almost assuredly play a CAA school.

If you're scared, just say so.

[Hammerhead]

Are the first round games assigned to the highest bidders?


Holy Cross wouldn’t go to North Dakota.

PL auto bid almost always stays somewhere in the region and would almost assuredly play a CAA school.

[crusader11]

If you're scared, just say so.

I’m petrified of having to go to the Dakotas.

[JayJ79]

Are the first round games assigned to the highest bidders?
if I remember correctly, the official stance is that they first assign the 8 seeds. then they pair up the other 16 teams and place them in the bracket to face a seeded team, with the notion of maximizing the number of "bus trips" (400 miles or less between the schools) in both the first round game and potential 2nd round games while avoiding conference rematches in the first round.
And only then do they reveal what teams bid for hosting in the first round, with the team that bid higher between the two in each first round game getting the home game. Meaning that officially, they don't look at the bids until after the pairings have been set.

although some skeptics may say that unofficially, they already know which teams tend to bid the highest, so they try to avoid matching up two high bidders in the first round.

[BisonTru]

I’m petrified of having to go to the Dakotas.

It’s nice this time of year.


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[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Holy Cross wouldn’t go to North Dakota.

PL auto bid almost always stays somewhere in the region and would almost assuredly play a CAA school.

I'll be in Fargo/Grand Forks next week. It's a pretty cool place. Was able to get a round trip ticket from Philly to Minneapolis for $100.....

If the opportunity presents itself go!

[MayorOfHenTown]

Here's my take on the playoffs using projected outcomes:

SEMO/McNeese winner at 1 NDSU
The Citadel/Monmouth winner at 8 Central Arkansas
Montana State/San Diego winner at 4 Weber State
Southern Illinois/Austin Peay winner at 5 Montana
CCSU/Holy Cross winner at 2 JMU
Illinois State/North Dakota winner at 7 Sac State
Furman/SC State winner at 3 SDSU
Villanova/Youngstown State winner at 6 Northern Iowa

Last Four In: SC State, Youngstown State, McNeese, The Citadel
First Four Out: Nicholls, Wofford, Stony Brook, Albany
Next Four Out: UC Davis, Incarnate Word, Towson, New Hampshire

The first team listed in the first round games is my projected home team.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my take on the playoffs using projected outcomes:

SEMO/McNeese winner at 1 NDSU
The Citadel/Monmouth winner at 8 Central Arkansas
Montana State/San Diego winner at 4 Weber State
Southern Illinois/Austin Peay winner at 5 Montana
CCSU/Holy Cross winner at 2 JMU
Illinois State/North Dakota winner at 7 Sac State
Furman/SC State winner at 3 SDSU
Villanova/Youngstown State winner at 6 Northern Iowa

Last Four In: SC State, Youngstown State, McNeese, The Citadel
First Four Out: Nicholls, Wofford, Stony Brook, Albany
Next Four Out: UC Davis, Incarnate Word, Towson, New Hampshire

The first team listed in the first round games is my projected home team.
South Carolina St would be a pretty questionable inclusion in this scenario IMO. They'd only have 7 D1 wins (8-3) at best and of those 7 wins only Wofford and Bethune-Cookman have a chance to finish above .500 if SCSU wins out. I think the only way SCSU has an argument is if Wofford also wins out to get to 8-3 and takes the SOCON auto.

[ST_Lawson]

if I remember correctly, the official stance is that they first assign the 8 seeds. then they pair up the other 16 teams and place them in the bracket to face a seeded team, with the notion of maximizing the number of "bus trips" (400 miles or less between the schools) in both the first round game and potential 2nd round games while avoiding conference rematches in the first round.
And only then do they reveal what teams bid for hosting in the first round, with the team that bid higher between the two in each first round game getting the home game. Meaning that officially, they don't look at the bids until after the pairings have been set.

although some skeptics may say that unofficially, they already know which teams tend to bid the highest, so they try to avoid matching up two high bidders in the first round.

Yup, for example, if you have James Madison and Montana as non-seeded playoff teams (not saying they'll both drop to there, just hypothetically), you're not going to see them match up JMU and UM with each other. They'll have JMU with CCSU or Monmouth and Montana with Nicholls or San Diego or something. The NCAA "wins" when schools like NDSU, JMU, Montana, and other "big attendance" or "big $" programs host games. Whenever they can make that happen, they will.

[caribbeanhen]

College Sports Madness (I believe this one is including projected results from the rest of the season)
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology


NoBowls.com (this is his take on the field in the playoffs started next week)
http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png


My take if the playoffs started next week (autobid is the first team listed for each conference):

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Nicholls
OVC (3): UT Martin, Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
SOCON (1): Furman
Big South (1): Monmouth
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Nicholls
First 4 out: Wofford, Richmond, Kennesaw St, Stony Brook


Holy Cross @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #8 Central Arkansas
UT Martin @ Sam Houston St at #5 Sacramento St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 South Dakota St
San Diego @ Montana St at #3 Weber St
Furman @ Nicholls at #6 Montana
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #7 Northern Iowa
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James Madison

you put Illinois State and Southern Illinois in the CAA and they would be
right in the mess with the likes of Richmond, Stony Brook, Elon

[cx500d]

I’m petrified of having to go to the Dakotas.

Just remember, Custer was still alive when he left North Dakota.

[BisonTru]

you put Illinois State and Southern Illinois in the CAA and they would be
right in the mess with the likes of Richmond, Stony Brook, Elon

Y’all had 6 teams in the playoffs last year and 5 failed to win a game against a non-CAA opponent including losses to the patriot, ovc, and nec.

The glory days of being the second fiddle might be over.



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[Reign of Terrier]

College Sports Madness (I believe this one is including projected results from the rest of the season)
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology


NoBowls.com (this is his take on the field in the playoffs started next week)
http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png


My take if the playoffs started next week (autobid is the first team listed for each conference):

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Nicholls
OVC (3): UT Martin, Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
SOCON (1): Furman
Big South (1): Monmouth
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Nicholls
First 4 out: Wofford, Richmond, Kennesaw St, Stony Brook


Holy Cross @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #8 Central Arkansas
UT Martin @ Sam Houston St at #5 Sacramento St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 South Dakota St
San Diego @ Montana St at #3 Weber St
Furman @ Nicholls at #6 Montana
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #7 Northern Iowa
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James MadisonSocon/Wofford homer question: why do you have Austin Peay, a team that lost to ETSU (0-6) in the field, while leaving Wofford (who pulverized ETSU for their worst FCS loss of the season) out?



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[Professor Chaos]

Socon/Wofford homer question: why do you have Austin Peay, a team that lost to ETSU (0-6) in the field, while leaving Wofford (who pulverized ETSU for their worst FCS loss of the season) out?



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Austin Peay has quality wins over SEMO and JSU. Wofford has no wins of the same caliber. Both have questionable losses although APSU's loss to ETSU is probably worse than either of Wofford's FCS losses. Like I said last week a quality win or two can help discount a questionable loss.

[Reign of Terrier]

Look: you guys can hate me for being an obnoxious Wofford and or Socon homer, but we've not had 2 playoff teams in the field only once since the field expanded to 22-24 (and I want to say 3 times all-time).

That year was 2014. The second place team, Samford, didn't have 7 D1 wins. In fact, they only had 5. The third place team, Western Carolina, had 5 in a 12 game schedule. (Whew, those were bad times).

Looking at the socon now, if wofford and Furman win next week, the conference is all but guaranteed at least two teams with 7 D1 wins. If the citadel gets to 7 with a win against UTC, it could be 3, and I don't see them getting left out with a P5 victory (no 7 D1 team has been left out with one).

The fact is, the FCS playoff selection is a war of attrition when the field is 24 teams. Regardless if it's an 11 or 12 game season, teams have an 85% chance of making the field if they manage 7 D1 wins in conferences outside of the NEC/Patriot/MEAC/Pioneer.

This year, the CAA is pretty weak and I don't see the Big Sky getting more than 4. Maybe the socon only gets 2, but we aren't a one bid league. Either the coat tails of a P5 W or Wofford's playoff rep will shine through. Or both. But only one bid to 3 in the OVC? Get outta here.



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[Lorne_Malvo]

Look: you guys can hate me for being an obnoxious Wofford and or Socon homer, but we've not had 2 playoff teams in the field only once since the field expanded to 22-24 (and I want to say 3 times all-time).

That year was 2014. The second place team, Samford, didn't have 7 D1 wins. In fact, they only had 5. The third place team, Western Carolina, had 5 in a 12 game schedule. (Whew, those were bad times).

Looking at the socon now, if wofford and Furman win next week, the conference is all but guaranteed at least two teams with 7 D1 wins. If the citadel gets to 7 with a win against UTC, it could be 3, and I don't see them getting left out with a P5 victory (no 7 D1 team has been left out with one).

The fact is, the FCS playoff selection is a war of attrition when the field is 24 teams. Regardless if it's an 11 or 12 game season, teams have an 85% chance of making the field if they manage 7 D1 wins in conferences outside of the NEC/Patriot/MEAC/Pioneer.

This year, the CAA is pretty weak and I don't see the Big Sky getting more than 4. Maybe the socon only gets 2, but we aren't a one bid league. Either the coat tails of a P5 W or Wofford's playoff rep will shine through. Or both. But only one bid to 3 in the OVC? Get outta here.



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Nobody here hates you, we just feel kind of sorry for you. Pity, some might call it. xlolx

[Reign of Terrier]

Austin Peay has quality wins over SEMO and JSU. Wofford has no wins of the same caliber. Both have questionable losses although APSU's loss to ETSU is probably worse than either of Wofford's FCS losses. Like I said last week a quality win or two can help discount a questionable loss.There are plenty of historical examples of teams lacking quality wins getting in over teams without.

Example: Incarnate Word and Lamar over Furman.

Heck, I think it was 2016 when New Hampshire beat only one team with a winning record (of like, 6-5) to get in at 7-4.

Analyzing quality wins void of context of conference standing is suboptimal

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[ElCid]

College Sports Madness (I believe this one is including projected results from the rest of the season)
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology


NoBowls.com (this is his take on the field in the playoffs started next week)
http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png


My take if the playoffs started next week (autobid is the first team listed for each conference):

MVFC (5): North Dakota St, South Dakota St, Northern Iowa, Illinois St, Southern Illinois
Big Sky (4): Weber St, Sacramento St, Montana, Montana St
CAA (3): James Madison, New Hampshire, Villanova
Southland (3): Central Arkansas, Sam Houston St, Nicholls
OVC (3): UT Martin, Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St
SOCON (1): Furman
Big South (1): Monmouth
NEC (1): Central Connecticut St
Pioneer (1): San Diego
Patriot (1): Holy Cross
Independent (1): North Dakota

Last 4 in: Austin Peay, Southeast Missouri St, Southern Illinois, Nicholls
First 4 out: Wofford, Richmond, Kennesaw St, Stony Brook


Holy Cross @ North Dakota at #1 North Dakota St
Austin Peay @ Southern Illinois at #8 Central Arkansas
UT Martin @ Sam Houston St at #5 Sacramento St
Central Connecticut St @ New Hampshire at #4 South Dakota St
San Diego @ Montana St at #3 Weber St
Furman @ Nicholls at #6 Montana
Southeast Missouri St @ Illinois St at #7 Northern Iowa
Monmouth @ Villanova at #2 James Madison


Nicholls loses at least 1 more, ... maybe 2. They are 5-4 now. Not getting in at 7-5 in any event. Also, Montana St could easily lose 2 more to be 7-5 as well. I do not think there will be many 7-5 at large teams who have 1 top 40 win. I am just eyeballing top 40 via computer rankings. If UT Martin loses to Peay, they would be 7-5 as well with no good wins, assuming they lose to Kentucky. If SHSU loses to ACU they would be in same boat. However, if Towson wins out or even loses 1 to be 7-5, they would still have at least 3 better wins than some you have listed and most likely 3 or 4 top 40 wins. Just some food for thought. I know you said if next week, but .......

[Reign of Terrier]

Nobody here hates you, we just feel kind of sorry for you. Pity, some might call it. xlolx<Robert Downey Jr eye roll GIF>

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[Professor Chaos]

There are plenty of historical examples of teams lacking quality wins getting in over teams without.

Example: Incarnate Word and Lamar over Furman.

Heck, I think it was 2016 when New Hampshire beat only one team with a winning record (of like, 6-5) to get in at 7-4.

Analyzing quality wins void of context of conference standing is suboptimal

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I'm not trying to predict what the committee might do, just what they should do or what I would do if I was on it.

[caribbeanhen]

Y’all had 6 teams in the playoffs last year and 5 failed to win a game against a non-CAA opponent including losses to the patriot, ovc, and nec.

The glory days of being the second fiddle might be over.



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No, the glory days are long gone, but the CAA glory days were the real deal and eveyone knew it

[Reign of Terrier]

No, the glory days are long gone, but the CAA glory days were the real deal and eveyone knew itWhen App State was on their threepeat (or soon after in 2008) they referred to the playoffs as the CAA invitational or something like that. They played so many CAA teams. Wofford was eliminated from the playoffs by the CAA our first 3 tries. Now we are on a 2 game win streak.

Edit: but now the CAA is filled with teams that don't play good defense and programs that weren't part of that core ~10 team conference that was so good. My go to heuristic is to bet on the stalwarts when they get to the playoffs (JMU, UNH, UD, Nova, Richmond), but drop the newbs with little continuity (SB, Towson, Albany, Maine, Elon).

Give me the latter 5 any day, but the former? I may pass.

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[BisonTru]

At 6-6 UC Davis will have 2 wins against playoff teams and no bad losses and hold the #1 SOS in the country.

I think most will write them off based on record but they will have met the minimum D1 wins and should be in consideration. Imo, they should be in.


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[kalm]

When App State was on their threepeat (or soon after in 2008) they referred to the playoffs as the CAA invitational or something like that. They played so many CAA teams. Wofford was eliminated from the playoffs by the CAA our first 3 tries. Now we are on a 2 game win streak.

Edit: but now the CAA is filled with teams that don't play good defense and programs that weren't part of that core ~10 team conference that was so good. My go to heuristic is to bet on the stalwarts when they get to the playoffs (JMU, UNH, UD, Nova, Richmond), but drop the newbs with little continuity (SB, Towson, Albany, Maine, Elon).

Give me the latter 5 any day, but the former? I may pass.

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The CAA and SoCon are similar in that regard. Part of the issue is scheduling. It seems difficult to find quality wins from either OOC due to the relative ease of picking up NEC, Big South, etc...games.

The talent is there...see The Citadel and I’m not knocking the scheduling, who wouldn’t? But it creates a crap shoot on which 3/4/5 CAA or 2/3 SoCon is deserving.

[Professor Chaos]

At 6-6 UC Davis will have 2 wins against playoff teams and no bad losses and hold the #1 SOS in the country.

I think most will write them off based on record but they will have met the minimum D1 wins and should be in consideration. Imo, they should be in.


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You're right, I'd write them off because they've lost 6 games and that makes them a non-starter IMO. If you can't stay above .500 in the regular season you don't deserve an at-large bid no matter how tough your schedule is, I'm not a fan of .500 teams in league play making the field but if their OOC wins are strong enough I can look past it. Although everyone thought the same thing about 6-5 teams too until WIU cracked that egg in 2015.

You'd really hear the outcry from 8 or 9 win teams from the perceived weaker leagues that were left out if that happened though.... not worth the effort to defend it if I was on the selection committee.

[X-Factor]

If Weber wins out you dont think they would be 2 seed? Way better resume than JMU imo.

Weber really impressed in the Sac St game. Let’s see if they can keep that going and even build on it. In general I think the committee will have a hard time moving JMU down despite the weak schedule. I also agree that Weber looks like the better team current state

[Daytripper]

Here's my take on the playoffs using projected outcomes:

SEMO/McNeese winner at 1 NDSU
The Citadel/Monmouth winner at 8 Central Arkansas
Montana State/San Diego winner at 4 Weber State
Southern Illinois/Austin Peay winner at 5 Montana
CCSU/Holy Cross winner at 2 JMU
Illinois State/North Dakota winner at 7 Sac State
Furman/SC State winner at 3 SDSU
Villanova/Youngstown State winner at 6 Northern Iowa

Last Four In: SC State, Youngstown State, McNeese, The Citadel
First Four Out: Nicholls, Wofford, Stony Brook, Albany
Next Four Out: UC Davis, Incarnate Word, Towson, New Hampshire

The first team listed in the first round games is my projected home team.

McNeese? Their best win is SLU and they've lost to ACU and SHSU, both of which have the same number of total losses but equal or better wins (ACU def. Nicholls) and (SHSU def. UIW and Nicholls)

[Reign of Terrier]

At 6-6 UC Davis will have 2 wins against playoff teams and no bad losses and hold the #1 SOS in the country.

I think most will write them off based on record but they will have met the minimum D1 wins and should be in consideration. Imo, they should be in.

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If I'm not mistaken the only teams to get in with only 6 D1 wins have had an FBS win or a win over a top 5 team. Or they finished the season on a winning streak or only had 10 games scheduled. One thing to consider is how bad Davis's losses are. Are they double digits? Etc. The playoff committee cares a lot more about optics, and historically the fourth place Big Sky team has been left out at 7-4, and I have a hard time seeing Davis in at 6-6 and being the fifth place team (though if they win out, I think that means they'll usurp Montana State as fourth place, which may just eliminate the Bobcats).

I believe it was EWU in 2017 that had the #1 SOS and they were 7-4, all with quality losses and it didn't amount to much.


The CAA and SoCon are similar in that regard. Part of the issue is scheduling. It seems difficult to find quality wins from either OOC due to the relative ease of picking up NEC, Big South, etc...games.

The talent is there...see The Citadel and I’m not knocking the scheduling, who wouldn’t? But it creates a crap shoot on which 3/4/5 CAA or 2/3 SoCon is deserving.

I've said it once and I'll say it again, scheduling for 95% of the FCS is a cost issue (Big Sky, Missouri Valley teams fly more while the rest of the country mostly doesn't). The blueprint for scheduling tough at this level (see JMU's series with Weber) is 1) be a team out west 2) be a top program attendance-wise in the east and 3) have a TV deal. The teams that played tough games during the regular season that weren't 1 or 2 had a week zero game with ESPN (Richmond and Sam Houston comes to mind)

So, I see your point, but these AD's who are on the committee understand this do, which is why I don't think they don't penalize teams too much for not having a hard OOC schedule.

But I'm telling you, unless the conference is the Big Sky (this year) or the MVFC, I have a hard time thinking that any conference will get to 3 before the CAA/Southern/Southland/OVC gets to two. If you're sitting in second place in one of these conferences you're in good shape. Third is more dicey.


You're right, I'd write them off because they've lost 6 games and that makes them a non-starter IMO. If you can't stay above .500 in the regular season you don't deserve an at-large bid no matter how tough your schedule is, I'm not a fan of .500 teams in league play making the field but if their OOC wins are strong enough I can look past it. Although everyone thought the same thing about 6-5 teams too until WIU cracked that egg in 2015.

You'd really hear the outcry from 8 or 9 win teams from the perceived weaker leagues that were left out if that happened though.... not worth the effort to defend it if I was on the selection committee.

I had the math for this figured out at one point in the last couple months, but the likelihood of most teams outside of the top 2-3 in any given conference are very unlikely to make it past the second round or quarterfinals. I want to say only 4 4-loss teams have made the semifinals (none in the finals) since 2008 or so and that number will sharply drop if you go back further because 4-loss teams almost never made the field in the 16 team playoff. So, like, 4 of 40 teams had 4 losses (none with 5 or 6) and I don't know the proportion of all-time 4-loss teams to take the field.

I'm a little less opinionated about the bubble at this point (even if my own team is on the bubble) because we are basically arguing about the teams that will inevitably lose in the first 2, maybe 3 rounds or so. Sure, there are exceptions, but it's not worth getting worked up over. The problem is that some voters value what teams have done in the playoffs over other teams who were on the bubble and didn't make the field without considering what the substituted team would do. New Hampshire a couple years ago was a good example of this (2017?). I'd expect many bubble teams in lots of conferences to beat Central Connecticut state and maybe even upset Central Arkansas (EWU was left out that year?). But because UNH got put in the field, they actually did it and I imagine their preseason rankings were higher.

Part of the reason why I kind of stick up for those "9 and 8 win teams from weaker conferences" is because the EWUs/power conferences teams of the world don't need to worry about their previous playoff performances to climb the rankings and make a case for a seed (glares at Towson), but those of us outside of those 3 have a harder time.

[Professor Chaos]

Part of the reason why I kind of stick up for those "9 and 8 win teams from weaker conferences" is because the EWUs/power conferences teams of the world don't need to worry about their previous playoff performances to climb the rankings and make a case for a seed (glares at Towson), but those of us outside of those 3 have a harder time.
I wouldn't warm up those violins too much for Wofford. They're getting just as much of the benefit of the doubt in the polls right now as Towson is IMO if not more.

EDIT: And wait until you see how ridiculously high Kennesaw St will still be in the Coaches and STATS polls released later today. And maybe Jacksonville St finally drops out of those two polls now with their 3rd OVC loss but you never know with them. Name recognition bias in the polls is not solely the territory of Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC teams.

[bwbear]

McNeese? Their best win is SLU and they've lost to ACU and SHSU, both of which have the same number of total losses but equal or better wins (ACU def. Nicholls) and (SHSU def. UIW and Nicholls)


^^^ This.

Looking at the SLC, it is interesting that College Sport Madness had SELA in but UCA as a #5 seed. Granted, they are looking at a snapshot, but the two teams meet this weekend. Either SELA is going to be eliminated, or UCA will be knocked out of a national seed.

The best resumes still exist with Nicholls and SHSU. Interesting that Nobowls only took UCA and no one else. I'd take the second place SLC team over any of the last 4 in teams.

[Professor]

Look: you guys can hate me for being an obnoxious Wofford and or Socon homer, but we've not had 2 playoff teams in the field only once since the field expanded to 22-24 (and I want to say 3 times all-time).

That year was 2014. The second place team, Samford, didn't have 7 D1 wins. In fact, they only had 5. The third place team, Western Carolina, had 5 in a 12 game schedule. (Whew, those were bad times).

Looking at the socon now, if wofford and Furman win next week, the conference is all but guaranteed at least two teams with 7 D1 wins. If the citadel gets to 7 with a win against UTC, it could be 3, and I don't see them getting left out with a P5 victory (no 7 D1 team has been left out with one).

The fact is, the FCS playoff selection is a war of attrition when the field is 24 teams. Regardless if it's an 11 or 12 game season, teams have an 85% chance of making the field if they manage 7 D1 wins in conferences outside of the NEC/Patriot/MEAC/Pioneer.

This year, the CAA is pretty weak and I don't see the Big Sky getting more than 4. Maybe the socon only gets 2, but we aren't a one bid league. Either the coat tails of a P5 W or Wofford's playoff rep will shine through. Or both. But only one bid to 3 in the OVC? Get outta here.



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If Wofford gets in , then SCSU deserves to get in. IF they win out, which they should, they would be 8-3 with a win over Wofford and no bad losses. Losses were to A&T , FAMU and USF

[JayJ79]

where does one find these "Strength of Schedule" rankings, and just how are they determined?

[Professor Chaos]

where does one find these "Strength of Schedule" rankings, and just how are they determined?
I'm guessing Massey's ratings is where most are pulling SOS rankings from: https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

I believe it's calculated just be using the average Massey ranking of teams played so far that season. The SSF column on that page denotes what the full season SOS would be including games yet to be played.

[Grizzlies82]

Weber really impressed in the Sac St game. Let’s see if they can keep that going and even build on it. In general I think the committee will have a hard time moving JMU down despite the weak schedule. I also agree that Weber looks like the better team current state


Keep in mind the playoff committee's view is not the same as the polls out there. So they wouldn't necessarily need to be "moving JMU down" as about the only certainty is an undefeated NDSU is sitting at #1. Numbers 2-5 etc... is far more fluid than many of us may think.

[Mayville Bison]

If A&T wins out, they make the playoffs, right? They don't have any great wins as Elon at home is their best win, but 9-1 against FCS competition with their only loss coming on the road to a team who is 9-0 against FCS competition should at least be in the first four out this year.

[Reign of Terrier]

I wouldn't warm up those violins too much for Wofford. They're getting just as much of the benefit of the doubt in the polls right now as Towson is IMO if not more.

EDIT: And wait until you see how ridiculously high Kennesaw St will still be in the Coaches and STATS polls released later today. And maybe Jacksonville St finally drops out of those two polls now with their 3rd OVC loss but you never know with them. Name recognition bias in the polls is not solely the territory of Big Sky, CAA, and MVFC teams.

Eh, polls haven't come out yet. I'm cynical and jaded and am convinced the people are going to drop Wofford for getting whipped by Clemson, so that colors my perception there. South Carolina State is actually get hosed more than Wofford. Yes, their schedule is weak in aggregate, but Bethune Cookman, NC A&T, and Florida A&M and Wofford is probably a better stretch than much of the OVC and Big South will face. Going 2-2 in that stretch, and losing those other 2 by only about 7 points total is impressive. We know that A&T is a known commodity (even if they aren't a top 10 team, they're definitely top 25 IMO), FAMU may finish undefeated in FCS play (and beat A&T and a top 25 team IMO), but South Carolina State doesn't get any recognition from the polls and they may not make the playoffs as a result. South Carolina State will probably win their next 3 games pretty easily (as they should) but they have no opportunity to climb the polls anymore.

Their quality win happened too early and their quality losses happened too late, even though they're in the margin of error of being a 10-1 football team. And in the meantime, Wofford's been told our loss to SC State is a bad loss when the Bulldogs may finish 8-3. What does SC State have to do to get some recognition? I'm not going to sit here and say they're a quarterfinalist-worthy team (though they have had some good ones traditionally).

When the dust settles, it looks like SC State may not lose to a team with less than 9 wins and they very well may have beaten a playoff team, but they don't have anything to show for it.


If Wofford gets in , then SCSU deserves to get in. IF they win out, which they should, they would be 8-3 with a win over Wofford and no bad losses. Losses were to A&T , FAMU and USF

I agree with this, obviously. But also I would say if Wofford is on the bubble at 7-4 and SC State is 8-3, they should get primary consideration. My shtick here is that I don't think they will.

[Grizalltheway]

So, does a 10-2 Montana team get a higher seed than 9-3 Weber, even though they had 2 close FBS losses and the road win over Sac?

[Daytripper]

So, does a 10-2 Montana team get a higher seed than 9-3 Weber, even though they had 2 close FBS losses and the road win over Sac?
They shouldn't. Weber is clearly the second best team in FCS in my opinion.

[Professor Chaos]

So, does a 10-2 Montana team get a higher seed than 9-3 Weber, even though they had 2 close FBS losses and the road win over Sac?


They shouldn't. Weber is clearly the second best team in FCS in my opinion.
Well for Montana to get to 10-2 they'd need to beat Weber so it wouldn't be that cut and dried. Would probably depend on what Sac St does. If Sac St is in the seeds also at 9-3 it's a cluster for those 3 teams with 1 FCS loss each to each other. If Sac St drops another game I think Montana gets the nod over Weber due to the extra win overall and head-to-head win.

[F'N Hawks]

If Thomson is out for an extended period of time Sac State is done. He drove that ship and was perfect for their offense. I said before the game that Weber was going to win and it was due to line play. Sac is a great story but their OL has never been good and Taylor can't fix it in 9 months. Now with their mobile star QB out they are in trouble.

[Reign of Terrier]

If A&T wins out, they make the playoffs, right? They don't have any great wins as Elon at home is their best win, but 9-1 against FCS competition with their only loss coming on the road to a team who is 9-0 against FCS competition should at least be in the first four out this year.

Florida A&M is barred from postseason competition because of bad APR (or something). If NC A&T wins out they will be in the Celebration Bowl. Which is why in my opinion, given that SC State could finish 8-3 with a win against Wofford and losses to an FBS team, and two teams 9-1 and 9-0 against FCS competition, they should get more looks than they are.

[Mayville Bison]

Florida A&M is barred from postseason competition because of bad APR (or something). If NC A&T wins out they will be in the Celebration Bowl. Which is why in my opinion, given that SC State could finish 8-3 with a win against Wofford and losses to an FBS team, and two teams 9-1 and 9-0 against FCS competition, they should get more looks than they are.

That's right, I forgot about the postseason ban, thanks!

Here's another wrinkle to throw in - what if Beth-Cook wins out and beats both A&T and A&M? Unlikely, but these are the fun scenarios I like to think about. BC would go to the Celebration bowl as the auto. SC State and A&T would both be 8-3; A&T has the h2h but SC State beat both BC and Wofford.

[Professor]

If A&T wins out, they make the playoffs, right? They don't have any great wins as Elon at home is their best win, but 9-1 against FCS competition with their only loss coming on the road to a team who is 9-0 against FCS competition should at least be in the first four out this year.

A&T wins out they go to the celebration bowl. FAMU is on a 1 year postseason ban due to their APR issues. They will be on probation till 2023, but only banned from postseason in all sports in 2019-2020

[Professor]

That's right, I forgot about the postseason ban, thanks!

Here's another wrinkle to throw in - what if Beth-Cook wins out and beats both A&T and A&M? Unlikely, but these are the fun scenarios I like to think about. BC would go to the Celebration bowl as the auto. SC State and A&T would both be 8-3; A&T has the h2h but SC State beat both BC and Wofford.

If this happens and Bethune Cookman was to beat A&T and FAMU, BCU to the Celebration Bowl , with A&T and SCSU getting into the playoffs. Man the FCS world will blow up lol

[Catbooster]

If Thomson is out for an extended period of time Sac State is done. He drove that ship and was perfect for their offense. I said before the game that Weber was going to win and it was due to line play. Sac is a great story but their OL has never been good and Taylor can't fix it in 9 months. Now with their mobile star QB out they are in trouble.
Maybe they can get Thomson a medical redshirt for this year if he can't come back. 8th year of college eligibility? xthumbsupx

[dbackjon]

If Weber wins out you dont think they would be 2 seed? Way better resume than JMU imo.

Weber's two losses:
6-0 at now 7-1 San Diego State
19-13`at now 5-4 Nevada

JMU's loss:
20-13 at now 3-5 WVU

[kalm]

Weber's two losses:
6-0 at now 7-1 San Diego State
19-13`at now 5-4 Nevada

JMU's loss:
20-13 at now 3-5 WVU

If Weber wins out there’s virtually no metric that should have them behind JMU.

[Terry2889]

There is very little to gain from that comparison. Nevada and SDSU are in much weaker conferences than WVU. That said, there are some definite cracks in JMU's armor this year.


Weber's two losses:
6-0 at now 7-1 San Diego State
19-13`at now 5-4 Nevada

JMU's loss:
20-13 at now 3-5 WVU

[clenz]

There is very little to gain from that comparison. Nevada and SDSU are in much weaker conferences than WVU. That said, there are some definite cracks in JMU's armor this year.
Sure...

and WVU's wins outside of JMU?

3-6 Kansas...by 5...Kansas has 2 FBS wins
4-4 Wake Forest - 3 FBS wins

Meanwhile their losses
31 point loss to Mizzou
2 score loss to Texas
24 point loss to Iowa State
38 point loss to Texas

Sure, they played Baylor tight this weekend, but Baylor's 8-0 record is pretty skewed by being completely back loaded with Texas and OU at the end of the season.

I'd say WVU is equal or below SDSU

Massey composite at WVU at 73 and San Diego State at 38

[WrenFGun]

Here's my first Bracketology with three weeks left in the season:

BSC [3]: Weber State (tough remaining schedule with UND and @Montana), Montana (may finish 8-4, but that's probably still good enough), Sac. State (better be careful here; they have a non D1 win, which means they'll need to finish 2-1 to get to seven, 2 on the road and a tough one against UC Davis to close),

Big South [1]: Monmouth. 8 DI wins and a soft as butter schedule isn't enough to get KSU a playoff berth in my opinion. That Kent State OT loss stinnnnggs.

CAA [4]: James Madison [should run the table]; New Hampshire [projecting L to JMU, W over @ALB and Maine, quality wins over Albany, Villanova, Stony Brook, Elon and Duquesne at that juncture], Villanova [another soft as butter schedule, but could conceivably bank wins over UD, Richmond and Towson which is better on a soft bubble than a number of teams. Stony Brook [should get to 7 DI wins @home against UA and Towson, but no piece of cake]. Plenty of other options in the CAA, but there are some BRUTAL schedules remaining. Richmond can get to 7 DI wins but they'll need to win @Nova or @JMU to do so. Albany can get to 7 DI wins by finishing 2-1, but they get UNH, @SBU and @UD. Elon has a sneaky shot at 7-5 with wins over Richmond and The Citadel, but they'd need to win @Towson in the finale. Towson same boat. Ultimately I think that the CAA will find a way to get 4; Nova and JMU are in the best shape, then UNH and SBU are in a slightly better spot than the others. One of the problems for a lot of the CAA bubble teams is that they could be looking at 4 CAA losses.

Independents [1]: North Dakota [likely lose to Weber State, but should win final 2 and get to 7 DI wins with decent wins over UC Davis, Montana State, and Sam Houston]

MEAC [0]: There are few shots here; SC State can get to 7 DI wins with a win over Wofford if they win out. The best chance might be if BCU upsets NC A&T and goes to the celebration bowl, leaving NC&T with 8 DI wins including wins over a 7DI win SC State who beat Wofford and a win over Elon. I think more than likely BCU loses to NC&T and there are better teams with 7 DI wins than SC State.

MVFC [5]: North Dakota State [DUH], SD State and UNI are stone cold locks. The question is whether they'll get more than that with the eligibility that's left. It's entirely possible that Illinois State vs. YSU is a play-in game assuming YSU wins the two games leading up to the game as they'd in theory with a YSU-R win they'd both be 4-4 in conference with 7 DI wins. I'd have ISU-R out in that situation since they'd have lost 3 of 4 to end the year. I also like Southern Illinois to get in with 7 DI wins, and I'll take YSU over ISU-R given it's a home game.

NEC [1]: Bubble teams should be rooting for CCSU to win this conference. I don't think a 10-2 CCSU earns a bid based on their wins, but they might.

OVC [2]: What a cluster. I think SEMO is probably the best positioned to be in the best shape here. 5 DI Wins including over SIU, UTM and JSU, and should get to 7 fairly easily. AP and UTM may decide their fate next week, though AP could get to 8 DI wins even if they lose to UTM. I have to think they're favored at home. That brings me to UTM; if they lose to AP, they won't have a single significant win unless to consider JSU to be one, and they close with SEC Kentucky, so that would be 2-3 in their last 5. JSU could get to 8-4 but their best win would be knocking EKY out of contention. Assuming AP beats UTM, this is a 2 bid league for me.

PL [1]: Holy Cross will have essentially a two-game cushion over Lehigh if they beat Lafayette this weekend at home. If they don't? All hell breaks lose.

PFL [1]: Looks like SD's bid again.

Southern [2]: Furman will get to 7 DI wins by beating WCU, but if they lose to Wofford, they'll basically close the season 0-2 with no significant wins. Wofford closes with a ROUGH schedule and again, no wins of any significance. If they finish 2-1, they'll either lose to Furman or the Citadel. I think if Wofford loses to Furman, it's a real tough case here. They'd have 7 DI wins and their best win would be knocking out The Citadel. Meanwhile the Citadel has by far the best win of the bunch with a win over Ga. Tech [and they beat Furman]. My best guess is that Citadel vs. Wofford is a play-in game unless Furman loses to Wofford and gives the autobid to one of the other two. Based on what's left, you probably have to say that Wofford beats Furman at home and the Citadel beats Wofford at home, giving the autobid to the Citadel and the secondary bid, presumably, to Wofford based on beating Furman .

Southland [3]: Does anyone want to make the playoffs this year? [B]UCA is a lock. Nicholls State can get to 7 DI wins by beating McNeese State at home and HBU at home. Sam Houston State can get to 7 DI wins by winning out, and they beat Nicholls 17-0. SELA could also get to 7 DI wins by beating Nicholls in the finale. McNeese could get to 7 even if they lose to Nicholls, and they beat SELA. I'm going to assume that Montana beats Montana state in the rivalry game which gives a third berth to the SLC. I'll say Nicholls and Sam get in.

---

TLDR:

BSC: Weber State, Montana, Sac. State [I think Sac State could be in trouble, Montana State still in play]
Big South: Monmouth [Kennesaw State has no good wins and will need a bubble softening]
CAA: James Madison, Villanova, UNH, Stony Brook] [this could and will change week to week, literally 8 teams in play]
Independents: North Dakota
MVFC: North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois
NEC: Central Connecticut State
OVC: SEMO, AP
PL: Holy Cross
PFL: San Diego
Southern: The Citadel, Wofford
Southland: Central Arkansas, Sam Houston State, Nicholls State

Games to watch: Can NAU steal one against Sacramento State, who is 4-0 at home this season. New Hampshire @ JMU, can they continue to show well and grab another big win or does JMU run away with the CAA? Is Villanova on death watch with a 4th straight loss with Richmond coming to town? Can Albany get to DI win 6 with a win @UD? Can Maine stay on a run to 7 DI wins @Elon? Who's knocking who out of the playoffs when Stony Brook hosts Towson? Can North Dakota cement a playoff berth with an upset over Weber State? Can Youngstown start their playoff run with a win over South Dakota? Robert Morris and Duquesne play -- who's going to be undefeated going into CCSU for the title? Can Austin Peay effectively eliminate Tenn-Martin at home with a win? Citadel in a trap game @ Chattanooga, can they keep it going? Can SELA upset UCA and start making a case? Is everyone going to finish with 7 DI wins in the SLC?

[kalm]

Sure...

and WVU's wins outside of JMU?

3-6 Kansas...by 5...Kansas has 2 FBS wins
4-4 Wake Forest - 3 FBS wins

Meanwhile their losses
31 point loss to Mizzou
2 score loss to Texas
24 point loss to Iowa State
38 point loss to Texas

Sure, they played Baylor tight this weekend, but Baylor's 8-0 record is pretty skewed by being completely back loaded with Texas and OU at the end of the season.

I'd say WVU is equal or below SDSU

Massey composite at WVU at 73 and San Diego State at 38

Not to mention another MWC team, Wyoming, beat Mizzou who WVU lost to. Wyoming also barely lost to SDSU and drilled Nevada.

[Anthony215]

I think NC A&T if FAMU doesn't blow it the last two weeks and clinches the conference title would get an at large berth. Their only loss at the FCS level would be to FAMU with them picking up an FBS win and a OOC win over Elon.

[nodak651]

Sure...

and WVU's wins outside of JMU?

3-6 Kansas...by 5...Kansas has 2 FBS wins
4-4 Wake Forest - 3 FBS wins

Meanwhile their losses
31 point loss to Mizzou
2 score loss to Texas
24 point loss to Iowa State
38 point loss to Texas

Sure, they played Baylor tight this weekend, but Baylor's 8-0 record is pretty skewed by being completely back loaded with Texas and OU at the end of the season.

I'd say WVU is equal or below SDSU

Massey composite at WVU at 73 and San Diego State at 38


Please tell this to Brian McLaughlin. If I have to hear him blabber on about JMU's line play vs WMU one more time this year, I'm gonna go nuts.

[clenz]

Not to mention another MWC team, Wyoming, beat Mizzou who WVU lost to. Wyoming also barely lost to SDSU and drilled Nevada.
I didn't want to get too involved in the transitive property but going "HuR dUr B12 oVeR mWc TeAm" is ignorant.

[Professor Chaos]

Nice work Wren! The CAA and Southland are such messes right now with only 3 weeks to go. Teams and fans are going to be riding a roller coaster in those conferences this month.

[JayJ79]

my opinion: if a conference chooses to not participate in the playoffs with their AQ, then they shouldn't be eligible for at-large bids either.

[WrenFGun]

Nice work Wren! The CAA and Southland are such messes right now with only 3 weeks to go. Teams and fans are going to be riding a roller coaster in those conferences this month.

I think you could put any of 8 teams up for either conference aside from UCA and JMU and I'd buy it. What a mess. I think a lot of bubble teams will need to be rooting for the great teams to win out.

[Professor]

I think NC A&T if FAMU doesn't blow it the last two weeks and clinches the conference title would get an at large berth. Their only loss at the FCS level would be to FAMU with them picking up an FBS win and a OOC win over Elon.

FAMU is ineligible for postseason play. And A&T has 2 FCS wins against Charleston Southern and Elon and an FBS loss to Duke

[Reign of Terrier]

My personal bracketology. Green=in, blue= one more win and they're in (autobid or not), yellow=probably in, or at least maximizes their chances with winning out, red=probably out. This isn't a perfect list, but I wouldn't put any other teams not included on it.



Weber


Sac State


Montana


Montana State


UCD


Monmouth


Campbell


KSU


JMU


UNH


Richmond


Albany


Nova


Towson


Stony Brook


North Dakota


SC State/NC A&T




NDSU


SDSU


UNI


Illinois State


SIU


Youngstown State




CCU


Duquense


UTM


AP


SEMO


EKU


JSU


Patriot


San Diego


Furman


Wofford


Citadel


UTC


UCA


SHSU


SELA


Nicholls


incarnate word


McNeese

[MSUBobcat]

There is very little to gain from that comparison. Nevada and SDSU are in much weaker conferences than WVU. That said, there are some definite cracks in JMU's armor this year.

Weaker conferences can still have better top teams than a stronger conference's bottom teams. SDSU is ranked 24 in both the AP and Coaches polls.. WVU wouldn't make the top 50. C'mon, man!


Sure...

and WVU's wins outside of JMU?

3-6 Kansas...by 5...Kansas has 2 FBS wins
4-4 Wake Forest - 3 FBS wins

Meanwhile their losses
31 point loss to Mizzou
2 score loss to Texas
24 point loss to Iowa State
38 point loss to Texas

Sure, they played Baylor tight this weekend, but Baylor's 8-0 record is pretty skewed by being completely back loaded with Texas and OU at the end of the season.

I'd say WVU is equal or below SDSU

Massey composite at WVU at 73 and San Diego State at 38

WVU's other wins were Kansas and 4-4 NC State, who does have only 3 FBS wins, not Wake Forest. Their 38 pt loss was to Oklahoma, not Texas who you have listed 2x. Just to clarify.

[BisonTru]

You're right, I'd write them off because they've lost 6 games and that makes them a non-starter IMO. If you can't stay above .500 in the regular season you don't deserve an at-large bid no matter how tough your schedule is, I'm not a fan of .500 teams in league play making the field but if their OOC wins are strong enough I can look past it. Although everyone thought the same thing about 6-5 teams too until WIU cracked that egg in 2015.

You'd really hear the outcry from 8 or 9 win teams from the perceived weaker leagues that were left out if that happened though.... not worth the effort to defend it if I was on the selection committee.

If UC Davis swaps out their NDSU game for a home game against a weak fcs opponent, at 7-5 I'd bet they're on everyone's radar. Even if they scheduled a DII at 7-5 (6-5 in D1) they are on the radar. So really we're punishing them for scheduling tough. Kennesaw St played two NAIA teams. People have them closer to in just with the shiny record.

Idk, I like to see teams challenge themselves and I want to see it rewarded. And too often then not it seems it bites them in the ass.

[clenz]

If UC Davis swaps out their NDSU game for a home game against a weak fcs opponent, at 7-5 I'd bet they're on everyone's radar. Even if they scheduled a DII at 7-5 (6-5 in D1) they are on the radar. So really we're punishing them for scheduling tough. Kennesaw St played two NAIA teams. People have them closer to in just with the shiny record.

Idk, I like to see teams challenge themselves and I want to see it rewarded. And too often then not it seems it bites them in the ass.
If UNI swaps their road trip to #3 Weber State with a lower FCS team they are 7-2 and probably #3

Davis needed a miracle finish to beat San Diego...give me whatever you want about San Diego. It's a non-scholarship team

Blown out by Montana
Loss at UND - not a bad loss but if you want to be a top 25 team you need that game
Not really close at all to Weber State

The other wins are
2-8 Southern Utah
2-8 Cal Poly
4-4 Lehigh

UNI, South Dakota State, and Weber State all played Southern Utah, if you want to compare it

Davis edged out a 1 TD win. Was it made closer late in the game that it may have been? Sure. That didn't happen with the other 3.

UNI jumped out to a 34-0 lead and allowed 1 garbage time score
SDSU won 43-7
Weber had a 3 score lead the entire game and a later score made it a 2 score game

I think the point I'm making is, good teams win tougher games. I wouldn't call the losses "bad" but there is nothing there to show they are a top 25 team.

I'd call what happened in Fargo an anomaly, not their norm.

[Professor Chaos]

If UC Davis swaps out their NDSU game for a home game against a weak fcs opponent, at 7-5 I'd bet they're on everyone's radar. Even if they scheduled a DII at 7-5 (6-5 in D1) they are on the radar. So really we're punishing them for scheduling tough. Kennesaw St played two NAIA teams. People have them closer to in just with the shiny record.

Idk, I like to see teams challenge themselves and I want to see it rewarded. And too often then not it seems it bites them in the ass.
I like to see teams challenge themselves in the regular season as well but if they aren't up to the challenge in the regular season there's no reason to think they will be in the playoffs either. UC Davis coming into the season had aspirations for a high seed so scheduling NDSU gave them a chance to put themselves into that discussion for a top 2 seed. They gambled and lost there but losing to a bubble team like UND hurts them a lot more than losing to NDSU.

[BisonTru]

I like to see teams challenge themselves in the regular season as well but if they aren't up to the challenge in the regular season there's no reason to think they will be in the playoffs either. UC Davis coming into the season had aspirations for a high seed so scheduling NDSU gave them a chance to put themselves into that discussion for a top 2 seed. They gambled and lost there but losing to a bubble team like UND hurts them a lot more than losing to NDSU.

They lost on the road to a team that everyone has in the playoffs at the moment. That's their bad loss?? Idk, the committee will probably agree, but IMO UC Davis is one of the top 25 teams in the country. Victim of a tough schedule, I see more ADs scrambling to schedule the NEC.

[Professor Chaos]

They lost on the road to a team that everyone has in the playoffs at the moment. That's their bad loss?? Idk, the committee will probably agree, but IMO UC Davis is one of the top 25 teams in the country. Victim of a tough schedule, I see more ADs scrambling to schedule the NEC.
What's their best win? San Diego? Doesn't hold much water with me.

Like I said UC Davis has played plenty of playoff caliber teams this year and lost to all of them so far (yeah, I know they beat a non-scholly likely autobid team by 3 on a last second TD). I'm all for rewarding tough schedules but they need to win some of those tough games. If they beat Montana St and Sac St to get to 7-5 they're most likely in when the vast majority of FCS teams wouldn't even have a shred of hope with that same record. That's because of their schedule strength.

[Catbooster]

If UNI swaps their road trip to #3 Weber State with a lower FCS team they are 7-2 and probably #3

Davis needed a miracle finish to beat San Diego...give me whatever you want about San Diego. It's a non-scholarship team

Blown out by Montana
Loss at UND - not a bad loss but if you want to be a top 25 team you need that game
Not really close at all to Weber State

The other wins are
2-8 Southern Utah
2-8 Cal Poly
4-4 Lehigh

UNI, South Dakota State, and Weber State all played Southern Utah, if you want to compare it

Davis edged out a 1 TD win. Was it made closer late in the game that it may have been? Sure. That didn't happen with the other 3.

UNI jumped out to a 34-0 lead and allowed 1 garbage time score
SDSU won 43-7
Weber had a 3 score lead the entire game and a later score made it a 2 score game

I think the point I'm making is, good teams win tougher games. I wouldn't call the losses "bad" but there is nothing there to show they are a top 25 team.

I'd call what happened in Fargo an anomaly, not their norm.

And Montana State jumped out to a 42-0 lead before letting Southern Utah score in garbage time.

It's probably a moot point. Davis has to play @Portland State (who has better scoring margins against all of their common opponents), vs Montana State, and @ Sac State. It wouldn't surprise me if they don't win another game (although I wouldn't be too surprised if they manage to get one of those games if the ball bounces well for them). The transitive property in scores is never a great argument, but there are enough comparisons here to show a tendency, IMO.

[BisonTru]

What's their best win? San Diego? Doesn't hold much water with me.

Like I said UC Davis has played plenty of playoff caliber teams this year and lost to all of them so far (yeah, I know they beat a non-scholly likely autobid team by 3 on a last second TD). I'm all for rewarding tough schedules but they need to win some of those tough games. If they beat Montana St and Sac St to get to 7-5 they're most likely in when the vast majority of FCS teams wouldn't even have a shred of hope with that same record. That's because of their schedule.

Yeah they have to beat PSU and one of MSU or SacSt. That's a likely scenario though.

[Anthony215]

FAMU is ineligible for postseason play. And A&T has 2 FCS wins against Charleston Southern and Elon and an FBS loss to Duke

So basically NCA&T is a lock for the Celebration Bowl while not "winning the MEAC title" is what you're saying lol. That stinks for the current athletes paying for the previous administration's poor judgment and overseeing of the programs.

[Professor]

So basically NCA&T is a lock for the Celebration Bowl while not "winning the MEAC title" is what you're saying lol. That stinks for the current athletes paying for the previous administration's poor judgment and overseeing of the programs.

No it will be between BCU and A&T. Both have 1 loss in the conference and play next week. The winner should earn the bid.

Whoever goes to the Bowl will be the MEAC champ. FAMU is ineligible. Is what it is

[JayJ79]

So basically NCA&T is a lock for the Celebration Bowl while not "winning the MEAC title" is what you're saying lol. That stinks for the current athletes paying for the previous administration's poor judgment and overseeing of the programs.

what do you suggest as a better alternative for programs who commit infractions or can't uphold minimum standards? By the time such things are revealed an investigated, it is almost always past the end of the season of the actual teams, and thus it would always fall on the current athletes and staff of those programs.

Or are you suggesting that programs should be able to do whatever they want without penalty?

[McNeese72]

Is everyone going to finish with 7 DI wins in the SLC?

If McNeese beats Nicholls and Lamar, they would finish 8-4 and have 8 Div I wins. They have an open date this weekend and then play Nicholls in Thibodaux so it won't be an easy task but it is doable. We did beat Nicholls last season but it was at home.

Doc

[MR. CHICKEN]

Here's my first Bracketology with three weeks left in the season:

BSC [3]: Weber State (tough remaining schedule with UND and @Montana), Montana (may finish 8-4, but that's probably still good enough), Sac. State (better be careful here; they have a non D1 win, which means they'll need to finish 2-1 to get to seven, 2 on the road and a tough one against UC Davis to close),

Big South [1]: Monmouth. 8 DI wins and a soft as butter schedule isn't enough to get KSU a playoff berth in my opinion. That Kent State OT loss stinnnnggs.

CAA [4]: James Madison [should run the table]; New Hampshire [projecting L to JMU, W over @ALB and Maine, quality wins over Albany, Villanova, Stony Brook, Elon and Duquesne at that juncture], Villanova [another soft as butter schedule, but could conceivably bank wins over UD, Richmond and Towson which is better on a soft bubble than a number of teams. Stony Brook [should get to 7 DI wins @home against UA and Towson, but no piece of cake]. Plenty of other options in the CAA, but there are some BRUTAL schedules remaining. Richmond can get to 7 DI wins but they'll need to win @Nova or @JMU to do so. Albany can get to 7 DI wins by finishing 2-1, but they get UNH, @SBU and @UD. Elon has a sneaky shot at 7-5 with wins over Richmond and The Citadel, but they'd need to win @Towson in the finale. Towson same boat. Ultimately I think that the CAA will find a way to get 4; Nova and JMU are in the best shape, then UNH and SBU are in a slightly better spot than the others. One of the problems for a lot of the CAA bubble teams is that they could be looking at 4 CAA losses.

Independents [1]: North Dakota [likely lose to Weber State, but should win final 2 and get to 7 DI wins with decent wins over UC Davis, Montana State, and Sam Houston]

MEAC [0]: There are few shots here; SC State can get to 7 DI wins with a win over Wofford if they win out. The best chance might be if BCU upsets NC A&T and goes to the celebration bowl, leaving NC&T with 8 DI wins including wins over a 7DI win SC State who beat Wofford and a win over Elon. I think more than likely BCU loses to NC&T and there are better teams with 7 DI wins than SC State.

MVFC [5]: North Dakota State [DUH], SD State and UNI are stone cold locks. The question is whether they'll get more than that with the eligibility that's left. It's entirely possible that Illinois State vs. YSU is a play-in game assuming YSU wins the two games leading up to the game as they'd in theory with a YSU-R win they'd both be 4-4 in conference with 7 DI wins. I'd have ISU-R out in that situation since they'd have lost 3 of 4 to end the year. I also like Southern Illinois to get in with 7 DI wins, and I'll take YSU over ISU-R given it's a home game.

NEC [1]: Bubble teams should be rooting for CCSU to win this conference. I don't think a 10-2 CCSU earns a bid based on their wins, but they might.

OVC [2]: What a cluster. I think SEMO is probably the best positioned to be in the best shape here. 5 DI Wins including over SIU, UTM and JSU, and should get to 7 fairly easily. AP and UTM may decide their fate next week, though AP could get to 8 DI wins even if they lose to UTM. I have to think they're favored at home. That brings me to UTM; if they lose to AP, they won't have a single significant win unless to consider JSU to be one, and they close with SEC Kentucky, so that would be 2-3 in their last 5. JSU could get to 8-4 but their best win would be knocking EKY out of contention. Assuming AP beats UTM, this is a 2 bid league for me.

PL [1]: Holy Cross will have essentially a two-game cushion over Lehigh if they beat Lafayette this weekend at home. If they don't? All hell breaks lose.

PFL [1]: Looks like SD's bid again.

Southern [2]: Furman will get to 7 DI wins by beating WCU, but if they lose to Wofford, they'll basically close the season 0-2 with no significant wins. Wofford closes with a ROUGH schedule and again, no wins of any significance. If they finish 2-1, they'll either lose to Furman or the Citadel. I think if Wofford loses to Furman, it's a real tough case here. They'd have 7 DI wins and their best win would be knocking out The Citadel. Meanwhile the Citadel has by far the best win of the bunch with a win over Ga. Tech [and they beat Furman]. My best guess is that Citadel vs. Wofford is a play-in game unless Furman loses to Wofford and gives the autobid to one of the other two. Based on what's left, you probably have to say that Wofford beats Furman at home and the Citadel beats Wofford at home, giving the autobid to the Citadel and the secondary bid, presumably, to Wofford based on beating Furman .

Southland [3]: Does anyone want to make the playoffs this year? [B]UCA is a lock. Nicholls State can get to 7 DI wins by beating McNeese State at home and HBU at home. Sam Houston State can get to 7 DI wins by winning out, and they beat Nicholls 17-0. SELA could also get to 7 DI wins by beating Nicholls in the finale. McNeese could get to 7 even if they lose to Nicholls, and they beat SELA. I'm going to assume that Montana beats Montana state in the rivalry game which gives a third berth to the SLC. I'll say Nicholls and Sam get in.

---

TLDR:

BSC: Weber State, Montana, Sac. State [I think Sac State could be in trouble, Montana State still in play]
Big South: Monmouth [Kennesaw State has no good wins and will need a bubble softening]
CAA: James Madison, Villanova, UNH, Stony Brook] [this could and will change week to week, literally 8 teams in play]
Independents: North Dakota
MVFC: North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Youngstown State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois
NEC: Central Connecticut State
OVC: SEMO, AP
PL: Holy Cross
PFL: San Diego
Southern: The Citadel, Wofford
Southland: Central Arkansas, Sam Houston State, Nicholls State

Games to watch: Can NAU steal one against Sacramento State, who is 4-0 at home this season. New Hampshire @ JMU, can they continue to show well and grab another big win or does JMU run away with the CAA? Is Villanova on death watch with a 4th straight loss with Richmond coming to town? Can Albany get to DI win 6 with a win @UD? Can Maine stay on a run to 7 DI wins @Elon? Who's knocking who out of the playoffs when Stony Brook hosts Towson? Can North Dakota cement a playoff berth with an upset over Weber State? Can Youngstown start their playoff run with a win over South Dakota? Robert Morris and Duquesne play -- who's going to be undefeated going into CCSU for the title? Can Austin Peay effectively eliminate Tenn-Martin at home with a win? Citadel in a trap game @ Chattanooga, can they keep it going? Can SELA upset UCA and start making a case? Is everyone going to finish with 7 DI wins in the SLC?

.....UH...ER...UMM.....YOU-DEE CAN GET TA 7-5........WHIFF DUBBYA'S OVERAH ALBANY/STONY BROOK/'NOVA.....(YEAH....GOOD LUCK AH KNOW...BUT STILL POSSIBLE)...WE'D HAVE 3 CAA LOSSES.....UH 3 POINT LOSS TA FBS PITT.......LOSS TA FCS #1 N. DAK. STATE......AN' TA DATE.....WE'VE SCORED MOS' POINTS ON DUH BIZONSSSSS WHIFF 22.......ALL IN 2ND HALF/2ND STRING QB.....AN' WHAT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW.....UH DECENT WIN OVERAH NEW HAMPSHIRE.........BRAWK!

[Grizzlies82]

So, does a 10-2 Montana team get a higher seed than 9-3 Weber, even though they had 2 close FBS losses and the road win over Sac?


Yes the Grizzlies should get a higher seed. Your scenario implies Montana has beaten Weber State just one week prior to the playoff seeds being announced.
You might argue Weber had a better season, yet the outcome of a recent head to head will over rule that.

As Chaos pointed out the seeding gets VERY interesting if the above transpires and if Sacramento State ends up at 9-3.

For those keeping score this means:

Montana is at 10-2 with its only two losses to #7 Oregon Ducks and to Sacramento State.
Weber State is at 9-3 with two close losses to FBS teams and to Montana.
Sacramento State is at 9-3 with two close losses to FBS teams and to Weber State.

In that scenario I have no idea who gets seeded ahead of whom.
Now if Weber State beats Montana in Missoula, they're 10-2 with only FBS losses and damn sure should be the overall #2 seed in the playoffs.

[Gangtackle11]

Yes the Grizzlies should get a higher seed. Your scenario implies Montana has beaten Weber State just one week prior to the playoff seeds being announced.
You might argue Weber had a better season, yet the outcome of a recent head to head will over rule that.

As Chaos pointed out the seeding gets VERY interesting if the above transpires and if Sacramento State ends up at 9-3.

For those keeping score this means:

Montana is at 10-2 with its only two losses to #7 Oregon Ducks and to Sacramento State.
Weber State is at 9-3 with two close losses to FBS teams and to Montana.
Sacramento State is at 9-3 with two close losses to FBS teams and to Weber State.

In that scenario I have no idea who gets seeded ahead of whom.
Now if Weber State beats Montana in Missoula, they're 10-2 with only FBS losses and damn sure should be the overall #2 seed in the playoffs.

Not so fast... if JMU runs the table they will be 11-1 with a 7 point loss @ West Virginia. Montana would have to settle for 3rd. xpeacex

[Grizalltheway]

Not so fast... if JMU runs the table they will be 11-1 with a 7 point loss @ West Virginia. Montana would have to settle for 3rd. xpeacex
Don't think he said anything about MT being #2...

[Grizzlies82]

Not so fast... if JMU runs the table they will be 11-1 with a 7 point loss @ West Virginia. Montana would have to settle for 3rd. xpeacex


tackle11, I was stating Weber State should be the #2 seed IF they beat Montana.
If so WEBER is 10-2 with only two close FBS losses. Yet they'd also have road wins over 3 top ten FCS teams... both Sacramento State & Montana on the road, and Northern Iowa.

IF Montana wins they might deserve a 3 or 4 seed, certainly not the #2. Three good weeks of football will help sort it all out.

[Gangtackle11]

tackle11, I was stating Weber State should be the #2 seed IF they beat Montana.
If so WEBER is 10-2 with only two close FBS losses. Yet they'd also have road wins over 3 top ten FCS teams... both Sacramento State & Montana on the road, and Northern Iowa.

IF Montana wins they might deserve a 3 or 4 seed, certainly not the #2. Three good weeks of football will help sort it all out.

ok. I got that wrong. My bad. That may happen, but 11-1 JMU/Weber State for #2 will be a tough discussion for the committee. xpeacex

[Grizzlies82]

ok. I got that wrong. My bad. That may happen, but 11-1 JMU/Weber State for #2 will be a tough discussion for the committee. xpeacex

I agree. There could be several tough decisions in the 8 seeds, that would certainly be one.

Hell, in fact maybe they should look at No Dakota State as a #3 or #4 since they didn't have the courage to play an FBS game this year. Tough decision there, Bisons as #3 or 4?
It would allow Weber State and James Madison to fill the #1 & #2 spots. xnodx

[Professor Chaos]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the committee have Weber St at #2 already when their rankings come out on Wednesday night.

[Daytripper]

ok. I got that wrong. My bad. That may happen, but 11-1 JMU/Weber State for #2 will be a tough discussion for the committee. xpeacex

Weber has the better resume in this scenario.

[Derby City Duke]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the committee have Weber St at #2 already when their rankings come out on Wednesday night.

I agree.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I wouldn't be shocked to see the committee have Weber St at #2 already when their rankings come out on Wednesday night.


Agree.

If Weber runs the table, I wouldn't be surprised if they end up the #2 seed.

[MSUBobcat]

ok. I got that wrong. My bad. That may happen, but 11-1 JMU/Weber State for #2 will be a tough discussion for the committee. xpeacex

JMU's issue is their "quality wins" keep cannibalizing each other. Nova is on a 3 game losing streak. Stony Brook is 5-4. Towson is 5-4. UNH is 5-3 but has questionable losses to Holy Cross and Delaware. Richmond is 5-4 with a questionable loss to at least Fordham. Those teams are currently ranked 16, 28, 26, 20, and 32, respectively, in this week's AGS.

WSU, on the other hand, has wins over #5 UNI, #7 Sac State and would also have beaten #6 UM. UNI still has a game @SDSU, but even with a loss, they could very well still finish top 10 at season's end. If BBQ beats Montana, obviously they would fall also, but also could very easily finish top 10 if they rebound and win the Brawl.

There's a lot of moving parts that have to go right (including one I'm against in the Griz beating my team in the Brawl), but those 3 wins could all be better than anything JMU would have, IMO.

[Professor Chaos]

JMU's issue is their "quality wins" keep cannibalizing each other. Nova is on a 3 game losing streak. Stony Brook is 5-4. Towson is 5-4. UNH is 5-3 but has questionable losses to Holy Cross and Delaware. Richmond is 5-4 with a questionable loss to at least Fordham. Those teams are currently ranked 16, 28, 26, 20, and 32, respectively, in this week's AGS.

WSU, on the other hand, has wins over #5 UNI, #7 Sac State and would also have beaten #6 UM. UNI still has a game @SDSU, but even with a loss, they could very well still finish top 10 at season's end. If BBQ beats Montana, obviously they would fall also, but also could very easily finish top 10 if they rebound and win the Brawl.

There's a lot of moving parts that have to go right (including one I'm against in the Griz beating my team in the Brawl), but those 3 wins could all be better than anything JMU would have, IMO.
JMU hasn't beat UNH or Richmond yet either. If they do UNH will have 4 losses at best and Richmond will have 5. The CAA is kind of a disaster this year... I don't know if it's down as a whole or if there's just a whole lot of parity behind JMU.

[Reign of Terrier]

My hypothesis:

Richmond won't get in this year (I think they drop both Nova and JMU):

If they're sitting at 5-3 and teams like Towson and Stony Brook are at 4-4 (in conference play, obviously), I think you see the latter two sitting at home. There aren't many instances of the committee ignoring conference record/standings to give away bids to lower-finishing teams. It has happened (in the CAA of all places) but having a 6-6 or so richmond (with a bad loss to Fordham) really really hurts.

That's your 3 team CAA scenario.