SLC - Nicholls @ Incarnate Word - Week 10

[Daytripper]

Two teams desperate for wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. Nicholls has lost 2 in a row and stands at 4-4 overall and 3-2 in conference play. UIW (5-3, 4-2) looked like they were on a roll until inexplicably losing at home, during homecoming, to a previously winless Northwestern State.

[BEAR]

Northwestern State apparently found a formula that works because they gave us all we could handle.

I'm going for UIW for selfish reasons. xlolx We get them later this year so I'm not looking forward to that. I don't see the SLC getting more than 2 in anyway. Nicholls has just faultered lately. Plus they got UIW, McNeese, and SLU left. Ugh. UIW has Nicholls, SFA, a winless New Mexico State, and UCA. Good chance to win many of those.

UIW by 3.

UIW Massey ratings next 4 games chances of UIW winning:
Nicholls: 49 %
SFA : 59%
NMSU: 34%
UCA: 43%

Nicholls Massey Ratings Nicholls chances of winning:
UIW: 51%
HBU: 83%
McNeese: 61%
SLU 33%

[Daytripper]

Northwestern State apparently found a formula that works because they gave us all we could handle.

I'm going for UIW for selfish reasons. xlolx We get them later this year so I'm not looking forward to that. I don't see the SLC getting more than 2 in anyway. Nicholls has just faultered lately. Plus they got UIW, McNeese, and SLU left. Ugh. UIW has Nicholls, SFA, a winless New Mexico State, and UCA. Good chance to win many of those.

UIW by 3.

UIW Massey ratings next 4 games chances of UIW winning:
Nicholls: 49 %
SFA : 59%
NMSU: 34%
UCA: 43%

Nicholls Massey Ratings Nicholls chances of winning:
UIW: 51%
HBU: 83%
McNeese: 61%
SLU 33%

Nicholls isn't going to make it to the playoffs. Unless they completely collapse, UCA is in. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, the Southland will get one at-large, maybe two if it falls right. The possible at-larges, in the order of potential, are 1. UIW 2. SELA 3. SHSU

[BEAR]

Nicholls isn't going to make it to the playoffs. Unless they completely collapse, UCA is in. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, the Southland will get one at-large, maybe two if it falls right. The possible at-larges, in the order of potential, are 1. UIW 2. SELA 3. SHSU


I gotta ask. How is SHSU going to be eligibile?

4 division I wins.
3 divison I games left.
Of a 12 game season.

If UCA (somehow) is able to take the autobid and the following teams have:

SLU 4-3 : SFA, UCA, ACU, and Nicholls. ( I don't see SLU making it. They'd have to run it to make 8 games in a weak conference IMO. Plus they only had 11 games. )
UIW 5-3 : Nicholls, SFA, NMST FBS, UCA. Super tough road. Need to win 3 of those IMO.
SHSU: 5-4 (4-4) ACU, NWST, and HBU. ( I think ACU will be their toughest game in two weeks) But that would only give you 7 division I wins.

I just think there will be too many 7-5 teams for our conference to get more than 2.

[Daytripper]

I gotta ask. How is SHSU going to be eligibile?

4 division I wins.
3 divison I games left.
Of a 12 game season.

If UCA (somehow) is able to take the autobid and the following teams have:

SLU 4-3 : SFA, UCA, ACU, and Nicholls. ( I don't see SLU making it. They'd have to run it to make 8 games in a weak conference IMO. Plus they only had 11 games. )
UIW 5-3 : Nicholls, SFA, NMST FBS, UCA. Super tough road. Need to win 3 of those IMO.
SHSU: 5-4 (4-4) ACU, NWST, and HBU. ( I think ACU will be their toughest game in two weeks) But that would only give you 7 division I wins.

I just think there will be too many 7-5 teams for our conference to get more than 2.

I agree it is a long shot. That is why I have them as the weakest possibility. But, they will have 7 D1 wins with wins over UIW and Nicholls. I'm just assuming that head to head wins might trump one less D1 win.

[BEAR]

Saturday, November 2
* Central Arkansas at Lamar, 3 p.m., ESPN+
* Nicholls at UIW, 4 p.m., ESPN3
* Northwestern State at McNeese, 4 p.m., Cox Sports Television/ESPN+
* Stephen F. Austin at Southeastern Louisiana, 4 p.m., Southeastern Sports Network

[bwbear]

This game is a "must win" for both teams. The loser of this game I think gets left out of any playoff talks.

UIW is probably in the worst spot as far as playoff hopes. Nicholls, UCA, and an FBS opponent with 3 losses already puts them in a tough spot. They have to win 2 of the three in order to make it.

If Nicholls wins out, I think they get a look from the committee. Their only downside is they only have one quality win (UCA, assuming the wheels don't come off the bus for the Bears).

If we're talking the rest of the conference, I'll say SHSU has the best chance of getting an at-large if that is their only option. 7 D1 wins, 4 losses may be enough if they run the table. They have the easiest remaining schedule of anyone in contention. Of course, this is the Southland. Any given week, chaos can occur (and should almost be expected). But with 7 D1 wins, they would get a look. They may be a first four out, but they will be in the conversation.

[McNeese72]

I gotta ask. How is SHSU going to be eligibile?

4 division I wins.
3 divison I games left.
Of a 12 game season.

If UCA (somehow) is able to take the autobid and the following teams have:

SLU 4-3 : SFA, UCA, ACU, and Nicholls. ( I don't see SLU making it. They'd have to run it to make 8 games in a weak conference IMO. Plus they only had 11 games. )
UIW 5-3 : Nicholls, SFA, NMST FBS, UCA. Super tough road. Need to win 3 of those IMO.
SHSU: 5-4 (4-4) ACU, NWST, and HBU. ( I think ACU will be their toughest game in two weeks) But that would only give you 7 division I wins.

I just think there will be too many 7-5 teams for our conference to get more than 2.

I know it is a long shot but what if McNeese wins out??

Doc

[FormerPokeCenter]

Winning out means we'd finish at 8-4, and we'd have wins over Nicholls and SLU. If McNeese got left at home at 9-2, I'm pretty sure we'd get left at home with an 8-4...

[McNeese72]

Winning out means we'd finish at 8-4, and we'd have wins over Nicholls and SLU. If McNeese got left at home at 9-2, I'm pretty sure we'd get left at home with an 8-4...

All our wins would be Div I but you are probably right. We wouldn't be as lucky as Lamar was last season.

Doc

[Puddin Tane]

i think sam's in as slc champs...i think thats still possible? uca drops 2, sam wins out?

[apaladin]

Nicholls isn't going to make it to the playoffs. Unless they completely collapse, UCA is in. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, the Southland will get one at-large, maybe two if it falls right. The possible at-larges, in the order of potential, are 1. UIW 2. SELA 3. SHSU

The SLC will get more than one at-large. Remember last year? Their commish is the head of the selection committee which means more than on field performance.

[BEAR]

i think sam's in as slc champs...i think thats still possible? uca drops 2, sam wins out?

Is that still possible? Yes. Probable. No. But that's asking for a WHOLE bunch of things to go exactly the way they need. If you are relying on other teams to fail so you can make it into the playoffs then it's not good. On the other side of that I'm not going to pretend UCA is dominating anybody. Obviously we're not. But all year we have gotten stronger in the third quarter (minus the Nicholls game) and proceeded to score over and over in the fourth. WTF does it take so long to get going who knows. It's been this way for a few years now. All we hear in our local media is how UCA makes comebacks to win games. Ok. If you're behind in a game and "comeback" to win it I guess it's logical. But as I've heard before a game is 4 quarters. We just happen to play ours in the third and fourth instead of first and second like any normal team. Plus I think a comeback is done on rare occasion. Not every game. xlolx

Here's why I think UCA will win at least 3 of their last 4. Our all star WR is out for the season with a broken arm (prayers up for him of course). Our QB and coaches have realized that there are other receivers on the team. Something I have been screaming about all season. In our game vs. SHSU we had two receivers with over 140 yards each. Neither one of those would have those numbers otherwise. We put our eggs in one basket and it was a VERY talented basket, but teams would focus on it. Now we will spread it around. Plus our whole team has seen all year that never quitting during the game gets WINS. Period.

Are we the most talented? No.
Can we win ALL of our remaining games? Yes. Will we? Eh. who knows. Either way as fans it's fun to watch this conference. Even the last place winless team is bringing it. That's cool. xthumbsupx

[Outsider1]

UIW has the capability to really disrupt. After Foucade being disrupted two weeks in a row, will he get past UIW? That is my question. I believe UIW can come out with a W in this game.

[BEAR]

UIW has the capability to really disrupt. After Foucade being disrupted two weeks in a row, will he get past UIW? That is my question. I believe UIW can come out with a W in this game.

Yeah it seems like if he is thrown off then the whole team is off. That's why I picked UIW.

[McNeese75]

Forcade is a senior and obviously has been on the run the last two weeks. It is beginning to sound like they are starting to fall apart at the seams down there and some finger pointing may be going on inside the team.

[BEAR]

Forcade is a senior and obviously has been on the run the last two weeks. It is beginning to sound like they are starting to fall apart at the seams down there and some finger pointing may be going on inside the team.

Just watch him during the games. He's always whining at somebody. Kids a talent. No doubt. But man in that game against Sam he was all over the place with his words.

[McNeese75]

He does not have Damion JeanPiere to throw to this year. That guy was lights out and was always a big thorn in McNeese's side. I suspected things would be a lot different for Fourcade this year without that safety valve. His whining is frustration I am sure.

[BEAR]

He does not have Damion JeanPiere to throw to this year. That guy was lights out and was always a big thorn in McNeese's side. I suspected things would be a lot different for Fourcade this year without that safety valve. His whining is frustration I am sure.

I can't blame him. I imagine a guy of his talent having lost a talent like that is frustrating. Being a senior and watching your numbers go up every year then experiencing how close they are this year....ugh...I can see why.

[McNeese72]

If we don't regress from the progress we have been making and stub our toes against Northwestern St., I like our odds against Nicholls after our open date.

Doc

[Puddin Tane]

The SLC will get more than one at-large. Remember last year? Their commish is the head of the selection committee which means more than on field performance.

cry me a river

- - - Updated - - -

[McCowboys]

I am going with UIW simply because they are at home. Their loss to Sam Houston woke the cardinals up once, and so maybe the loss to the Demons will have given them a jolt. But this is the SLC and who even has a clue!

[Outsider1]

I am going with UIW simply because they are at home. Their loss to Sam Houston woke the cardinals up once, and so maybe the loss to the Demons will have given them a jolt. But this is the SLC and who even has a clue!


My dear Watson, I think you're on to something......

[BEAR]

SLC odds to get to 8 wins: No 8 wins isn't a set number. But our conference is eating itself alive..the more wins the better.
Plus with 3 to 4 games left it's still anyone's conference title with only 2 games seperating first from 8th.

I'll post this then reread it and change my mind on things. xlolx

Orange= tossup or really I just don't know.
Green= win or what I think will be a win
Red= loss or what I think will be a loss

Likely in:
UCA 4-1, 6-2 (Has Lamar, SLU, SFA, and UIW left) - Needs 2 wins to get to 8. Not confident on Lamar and very unsure with SLU and UIW. Hoping SFA doesn't play spoiler.

Little Better Chance:
Nicholls 3-2, 4-4 (Has UIW, HBU, McNeese, and SLU left) Same thing here. Three tossups. Must win out to get to 8 wins. Plus only one game behind in conference.
UIW 4-2, 5-3 (Has Nicholls, SFA, New Mexico State, and UCA left) Must win 3 of the last 4. They can beat a defeated NMSU and SFA. Got to win either Nicholls or UCA.

BORDERLINE:
SLU 3-2, 4-3 (Has SFA, UCA, ACU, and Nicholls left) Hardest team to read. The only team I think with some confidence they will beat is SFA. The games agains UCA, ACU and Nicholls are tossups to losses. I just don't know on those three.
McNeese 3-3, 5-4 (Has NWST, Nicholls, and Lamar left) Must win out. Don't see that happening with Nicholls and Lamar left. Drop one of those and ouch.
Lamar 2-3, 4-4 (Has UCA, NWS, HBU, and McNeese left) UCA is a big game for Lamar. A loss and they are done toward the 8 wins. McNeese also looms. Borderline for the Cards.
SHSU 4-2, 5-4 (Has ACU, NWST, and HBU left) Only has 4 division I wins. ACU will be a tough win for them. They should take care of the last two. A loss at ACU and only 6 division I wins is possible. I'm not sure they are already out. Plus too many injuries.

LIKELY OUT:
ACU 4-3, 5-4 (Has SHSU, SLU, and Miss. State left) Must win out to get to 8 wins. I think Miss. State will seal their fate though. Too many teams above with chances at 8 wins.


OUT
HBU 1-4, 4-5 (Has Nicholls, Lamar, and SHSU left.)
NWST 1-4, 1-7 (Has McNeese, Lamar, SHSU, and SFA left)
SFA 1-4, 1-7 (has SLU, UIW, UCA, and NWST left)

[Outsider1]

Had to share your analysis on our thread BEAR. I think it is pretty fair.

[BEAR]

Had to share your analysis on our thread BEAR. I think it is pretty fair.

Is there another thread? It's just one way to look at it though. I mean if ACU beats Miss. State and has 8 wins...you're in! :D

[Outsider1]

Is there another thread? It's just one way to look at it though. I mean if ACU beats Miss. State and has 8 wins...you're in! :D


Sorry, our board. IF we beat Miss. ST, I think you may see some real Christian partying, LOL...... xdrunkyx

[FormerPokeCenter]

Real Christian partying?

Consumption of the sacramental wine, and the laying on of hands? ;)

With enough sacramental wine, you might even hear some speaking in tongues!

[BEAR]

Sorry, our board. IF we beat Miss. ST, I think you may see some real Christian partying, LOL...... xdrunkyx

Not holding my breath...but hey...why not?! xthumbsupx

[Outsider1]

Real Christian partying?

Consumption of the sacramental wine, and the laying on of hands? ;)

With enough sacramental wine, you might even hear some speaking in tongues!


EXACTLY, lol....... :D

[Puddin Tane]

SLC odds to get to 8 wins: No 8 wins isn't a set number. But our conference is eating itself alive..the more wins the better.
Plus with 3 to 4 games left it's still anyone's conference title with only 2 games seperating first from 8th.

I'll post this then reread it and change my mind on things. xlolx

Orange= tossup or really I just don't know.
Green= win or what I think will be a win
Red= loss or what I think will be a loss

Likely in:
UCA 4-1, 6-2 (Has Lamar, SLU, SFA, and UIW left) - Needs 2 wins to get to 8. Not confident on Lamar and very unsure with SLU and UIW. Hoping SFA doesn't play spoiler.

Little Better Chance:
Nicholls 3-2, 4-4 (Has UIW, HBU, McNeese, and SLU left) Same thing here. Three tossups. Must win out to get to 8 wins. Plus only one game behind in conference.
UIW 4-2, 5-3 (Has Nicholls, SFA, New Mexico State, and UCA left) Must win 3 of the last 4. They can beat a defeated NMSU and SFA. Got to win either Nicholls or UCA.

BORDERLINE:
SLU 3-2, 4-3 (Has SFA, UCA, ACU, and Nicholls left) Hardest team to read. The only team I think with some confidence they will beat is SFA. The games agains UCA, ACU and Nicholls are tossups to losses. I just don't know on those three.
McNeese 3-3, 5-4 (Has NWST, Nicholls, and Lamar left) Must win out. Don't see that happening with Nicholls and Lamar left. Drop one of those and ouch.
Lamar 2-3, 4-4 (Has UCA, NWS, HBU, and McNeese left) UCA is a big game for Lamar. A loss and they are done toward the 8 wins. McNeese also looms. Borderline for the Cards.
SHSU 4-2, 5-4 (Has ACU, NWST, and HBU left) Only has 4 division I wins. ACU will be a tough win for them. They should take care of the last two. A loss at ACU and only 6 division I wins is possible. I'm not sure they are already out. Plus too many injuries.

LIKELY OUT:
ACU 4-3, 5-4 (Has SHSU, SLU, and Miss. State left) Must win out to get to 8 wins. I think Miss. State will seal their fate though. Too many teams above with chances at 8 wins.


OUT
HBU 1-4, 4-5 (Has Nicholls, Lamar, and SHSU left.)
NWST 1-4, 1-7 (Has McNeese, Lamar, SHSU, and SFA left)
SFA 1-4, 1-7 (has SLU, UIW, UCA, and NWST left)

Im going with this for final records.


sam 7-2. 8-4
McNeese 6-3. 8-4
UCA 6-3. 8-4
UIW 6-3. 7-5
SLU 6-3. 7-4
Nichols 4-5. 5-7
ACU 4-5. 5-7
SFA 3-6. 3-9
LU 3-6. 5-7 We’re screwed up, we could win out, or lose out..I think we win 1 (and it’s not vs. NWST)
HBU 2-6. 5-7
NWST 2-7. 2-10


sam gets auto bid, UCA, McNeese get at large? If only one, goes to McNeese (they got hosed a lil while ago) and would have 5 game winning streak


Unless i I screwed up and have teams winning and losing at same time! Didn’t have my pencil and paper out...or messed up my math...

[Puddin Tane]

If it were the Mvfc, playoffs would have sam, McNeese, UCA, UIW, and SLU

[NOLA]

Colonels didn't play terribly last weekend besides all the fumbles, but I don't think they get it done this weekend. Hope I'm wrong, but I'll go 34-28 UIW

[BEAR]

Im going with this for final records.


sam 7-2. 8-4
McNeese 6-3. 8-4
UCA 6-3. 8-4
UIW 6-3. 7-5
SLU 6-3. 7-4
Nichols 4-5. 5-7
ACU 4-5. 5-7
SFA 3-6. 3-9
LU 3-6. 5-7 We’re screwed up, we could win out, or lose out..I think we win 1 (and it’s not vs. NWST)
HBU 2-6. 5-7
NWST 2-7. 2-10


sam gets auto bid, UCA, McNeese get at large? If only one, goes to McNeese (they got hosed a lil while ago) and would have 5 game winning streak


Unless i I screwed up and have teams winning and losing at same time! Didn’t have my pencil and paper out...or messed up my math...

I could see this. Sam has the easier path to win out and UCA has a very strong possibility of two more losses. UCA would have wins over Sam, McNeese, an FBS, and 8 wins. I don't see McNeese getting it over the Bears for that reason. If that's the case either both of us go or it's a one bid league. But I'm just like you in the thinking of my team. We could lose ALL of them and I wouldn't be surprised and it wouldn't matter in the big picture.

[McNeese75]

I would love to see the Pokes win out for the Seniors and new coaching staff but even then I doubt they will get an invite to the dance. Pretty obvious to me if UCA ends up with the same record they have the head to head win and the Western Kentucky victory to solidify that spot.

[Daytripper]

Nicholls 6 UIW 6 = 1:30 left in 1st.

[Daytripper]

Nicholls 27 UIW 23 - Final. Another wild day in the Southland.

[MTfan4life]

That 2 minute drill for Incarnate Word was painful to watch.

Successful pass downfield.
Screen pass, stuffed.
Successful pass downfield.
"Let's try something short again." Stuffed.
Successful pass.
Zero yard run up the middle, waste last timeout.
Successful pass.
Sack.
Pass completion to a receiver who doesn't realize he should at least try to run out of bounds.
Game over.

[Daytripper]

That 2 minute drill for Incarnate Word was painful to watch.

Successful pass downfield.
Screen pass, stuffed.
Successful pass downfield.
"Let's try something short again." Stuffed.
Successful pass.
Zero yard run up the middle, waste last timeout.
Successful pass.
Sack.
Pass completion to a receiver who doesn't realize he should at least try to run out of bounds.
Game over.

Agree. That has been the UIW season all year. Inconsistent with inexplicable moments.

[Outsider1]

It was a good win for Nicholls. I only got to see the end of the 3rd and 4th qtr.

[Hood]

If I'm being honest, I don't see my Colonels making the playoffs. I don't know why they're off this year, after a good run the last couple of seasons, but it can't ALL be due to JeanPierre graduating.

[Daytripper]

If I'm being honest, I don't see my Colonels making the playoffs. I don't know why they're off this year, after a good run the last couple of seasons, but it can't ALL be due to JeanPierre graduating.

Besides UCA, every single competitive team in the second tier of the conference has been wildly inconsistent. Good wins (SHSU beats UIW and Nicholls) along with head-shaking losses (SHSU loses to Lamar). Every team, like Nicholls, SELA, UIW, ACU and McNeese all have a similar story.

[McNeese75]

If I'm being honest, I don't see my Colonels making the playoffs. I don't know why they're off this year, after a good run the last couple of seasons, but it can't ALL be due to JeanPierre graduating.

Probably not, but i for one am glad he is gone. He really scared me every time we played the Colonels. Obviously the former McNeese receiver that transferrd (Cage) did not fill his shoes.

[NOLA]

I love being wrong. Gutsy performance from the Colonels all across the board. Gums was hurt last weekend when Nicholls couldn't punch in the game winner against ACU so it was great to see them come through this time... 55 Sully Laiche was animal in the second half. Can't be blocked and is one of the best in the nation.

And about the team this year, saying our regression is due to Jeanpiere is crazy. He was outstanding but Nicholls lost way more than just him. Four starters on the O-Line, replaced great depth on the D-Line with freshmen. Then LB Evan Veron has been out this year. He had over 20 TFL last year. And WR Dai'Jean Dixon got hurt a couple weeks ago. He was averaging about 100 yards a game and had 140 in the FIRST HALF against Central Arkansas before he was injured.


I agree we're not a playoff caliber team right now, however, if we win the next two at home and sneak a win at SELA, we will be 8-4 with another 7-2 record in the Southland.

[Daytripper]

I love being wrong. Gutsy performance from the Colonels all across the board. Gums was hurt last weekend when Nicholls couldn't punch in the game winner against ACU so it was great to see them come through this time... 55 Sully Laiche was animal in the second half. Can't be blocked and is one of the best in the nation.

And about the team this year, saying our regression is due to Jeanpiere is crazy. He was outstanding but Nicholls lost way more than just him. Four starters on the O-Line, replaced great depth on the D-Line with freshmen. Then LB Evan Veron has been out this year. He had over 20 TFL last year. And WR Dai'Jean Dixon got hurt a couple weeks ago. He was averaging about 100 yards a game and had 140 in the FIRST HALF against Central Arkansas before he was injured.


I agree we're not a playoff caliber team right now, however, if we win the next two at home and sneak a win at SELA, we will be 8-4 with another 7-2 record in the Southland.




Welcome to AGS, NOLA. It's good to get more Southland posters on here. I hope you stick around.

[SpreadTheWord]

Agree. That has been the UIW season all year. Inconsistent with inexplicable moments.

So frustrating. There has been questionable play calling all season long.

[FormerPokeCenter]

Agree. That has been the UIW season all year. Inconsistent with inexplicable moments.

Isn't that a requirement for SLC membership???

[MR. CHICKEN]

So frustrating. There has been questionable play calling all season long.

.....AH WATCHED LOTTA DIS GAME....ON ESPN3..........AN' AH REMEMBER IW.....WENT FO' FIRST DOWNS....ON 4TH AN' SHORT.....OPTIN' TO NOT KICK SHORT FG'S....AT LEAST TWICE....DOSE 6 POINTS.....GIVE YA DUH DUBBYA...AWK!