CAA Playoff Teams - Tracker

[Gangtackle11]

James Madison (7-1; 4-0)
10/26: Towson (87%)
11/9: New Hampshire (90%)
11/16: Richmond (97%)
11/23: @Rhode Island (92%)
Massey Projection: (11-1; 8-0)

Villanova (6-1; 3-1)
10/26: Stony Brook (65%)
11/2: @New Hampshire (58%)
11/9: Richmond (86%)
11/16: LIU (100%)
11/23: Delaware (70%)
Massey Projection: (11-1; 7-1)

Stony Brook (4-3; 1-2)
10/26: @Villanova (35%)
11/2: @Richmond (72%)
11/9: Towson (55%)
11/16: @Delaware (51%)
11/23: Albany (66%)
Massey Projection: (8-4; 5-3)

Towson (4-3; 1-2)
10/26: @JMU (13%)
11/2: Delaware (58%)
11/9: @Stony Brook (45%)
11/16: @William & Mary (68%)
11/23: Elon (56%)
Massey Projection: (7-5; 4-4)

New Hampshire (4-3; 3-1)
11/2: Villanova (42%)
11/9: @James Madison (10%)
11/16: @Albany (54%)
11/23: Maine (69%)
Massey Projection: (6-5; 5-3)

Elon (3-4; 2-2)
10/26: @Rhode Island (62%)
11/2: William & Mary (74%)
11/9: Maine (65%)
11/16: @Towson (44%)
Massey Projection: (6-5; 5-3)

Delaware (4-3; 2-1)
10/26: Richmond (76%)
11/2: @Towson (42%)
11/9: Albany (61%)
11/16: Stony Brook (49%)
11/23: @Villanova (30%)
Massey Projection: (6-6; 4-4)

Albany (5-3; 3-1)
11/2: Maine (58%)
11/9: @Delaware (43%)
11/16: New Hampshire (46%)
11/23: @Stony Brook (34%)
Massey Projection: (6-6; 4-4)

Others:
Richmond (4-8; 2-6)
Maine (4-8; 2-6)
William & Mary (3-9; 1-7)
Rhode Island (2-10; 0-8)

Looks like the CAA is a 3 playoff team league per Massey Win Projections on 10/23/19. Comments?

*Massey had Delaware/Stony Brook 50% with a 28-27 score in SB’s favor. I gave the win to SB.

[Professor Chaos]

That's the price of the league going 0-14 against the top 2 teams if Massey's expectations play out. For each upset that Nova and JMU take it probably means there's one more bubble team from the CAA that gets in.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

UNH's schedule is brutal! I don't see them winning enough to have a chance. If they go 7-4 they're a lock.

Ultimately I'll take JMU, 'Nova, Towson and Albany.

[Redbird 4th & short]

pretty good depth in CAA this year, and already seeing a lot of cannibalization ... could be a lot of 4-4 teams by year end. Will be interesting to see if FCS Selection Committee rewards them or punishes them (ala MVFC treatment) .. or somewhere correctly in the middle.

[caribbeanhen]

I see the CAA kind of like an old 70s cartoon classic

Scooby Doo

we all know who the Big Dog is
followed up by Nova hipster Shaggy, although could pass for prepster Fred

rest of the league is more like Velma, Daphne and Shaggy doo

[Gangtackle11]

James Madison (8-1; 5-0)
11/9: New Hampshire (91%)
11/16: Richmond (96%)
11/23: @Rhode Island (96%)
Massey Projection: (11-1; 8-0)

Villanova (6-2; 3-2)
11/2: @New Hampshire (57%)
11/9: Richmond (79%)
11/16: LIU (100%)
11/23: Delaware (73%)
Massey Projection: (10-2; 6-2)

Stony Brook (5-3; 2-2)
11/2: @Richmond (68%)
11/9: Towson (58%)
11/16: @Delaware (62%)
11/23: Albany (66%)
Massey Projection: (9-3; 6-2)

Elon (4-4; 3-2)
11/2: William & Mary (81%)
11/9: Maine (69%)
11/16: @Towson (52%)
Massey Projection: (7-4; 6-2)

Others:
Albany (7-5; 4-4)
Towson (6-6; 3-5)
Richmond (5-7; 4-4)
Maine (5-7; 2-6)
Delaware (5-7; 3-5)

[Dukie95]

I'm not so sure Albany and Richmond are "Others", unworthy of the detailed look you gave the others.

Richmond has a brutal stretch right now, but with some success could flip this on its head.

[Professor Chaos]

Elon appears to be this year's Maine when it comes to getting the most favorable draw from the CAA schedule makers. They miss Villanova, Stony Brook, and Albany.

[UAalum72]

Albany can't end up 7-5, 4-4. Either 6-6, 4-4, or 7-5, 5-3. And Massey gives them 47% vs. UNH and 49% vs. Delaware, practically tossups. 8-3 is well within possibilities

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Albany can't end up 7-5, 4-4. Either 6-6, 4-4, or 7-5, 5-3. And Massey gives them 47% vs. UNH and 49% vs. Delaware, practically tossups. 8-3 is well within possibilities

You guys have not beaten us in 4 years, I would not count this weekend as a slam dunkxthumbsupx

[Gangtackle11]

I’ll fix tonight. I had limited time today. xpeacex

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Elon appears to be this year's Maine when it comes to getting the most favorable draw from the CAA schedule makers. They miss Villanova, Stony Brook, and Albany.

Not sure how you say what team missed who when you still have 4 league games left. Maine was 4-3 at this point last year, not on anyone's screen. Massey gave us very little chance of doing anything. Still way to early and can almost bet that Massey will miss one team that wins out or only loses one more game blowing up all these predictions.

[UAalum72]

You guys have not beaten us in 4 years, I would not count this weekend as a slam dunkxthumbsupx
True, but Massey also gives Albany only 36% of beating Stony Brook when we beat them last year. So we still could end up anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

True, but Massey also gives Albany only 36% of beating Stony Brook when we beat them last year. So we still could end up anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3

Just another typical CAA year, take JMU out of the picture and every game can go in either direction. Where this Maine team is this year vs last year could be 4 less wins yet the team is very close to what it was last year in talent. Just such a thin margin in being a contender vs a pretender.xbowx

[Gangtackle11]

James Madison (8-1; 5-0)
11/9: New Hampshire (91%)
11/16: Richmond (96%)
11/23: @Rhode Island (96%)
Massey Projection: (11-1; 8-0)

Villanova (6-2; 3-2)
11/2: @New Hampshire (57%)
11/9: Richmond (79%)
11/16: LIU (100%)
11/23: Delaware (73%)
Massey Projection: (10-2; 6-2)

Stony Brook (5-3; 2-2)
11/2: @Richmond (68%)
11/9: Towson (58%)
11/16: @Delaware (62%)
11/23: Albany (66%)
Massey Projection: (9-3; 6-2)

UNH (4-3; 3-1)
11/2: Villanova (43%)
11/9: @JMU (9%)
11/16: @Albany (53%)
11/23: Maine (68%)
Massey Projection: (6-5; 5-3)

Elon (4-4; 3-2)
11/2: William & Mary (81%)
11/9: Maine (69%)
11/16: @Towson (52%)
Massey Projection: (7-4; 6-2)

Albany (5-3; 3-1)
11/2: Maine (58%)
11/9: @Delaware (49%)
11/16: New Hampshire (47%)
11/23: @Stony Brook (34%)
Massey Prediction: (6-6; 4-4)

Others:
Towson (6-6; 3-5)
Richmond (5-7; 4-4)
Maine (5-7; 2-6)
Delaware (5-7; 3-5)

Current Playoff Teams from Massey:
JMU
Stony Brook
Villanova
Elon ?

Still wide open for all not named JMU, W&M, or Rhody. Getting late for a few others.

[Professor Chaos]

Not sure how you say what team missed who when you still have 4 league games left. Maine was 4-3 at this point last year, not on anyone's screen. Massey gave us very little chance of doing anything. Still way to early and can almost bet that Massey will miss one team that wins out or only loses one more game blowing up all these predictions.
Every CAA team misses 3 other CAA teams each year on their conference schedule. This year Elon is missing Villanova, Stony Brook, and Albany which, as of now, are 3 of the top 5 ranked CAA teams. Last year Maine missed JMU, Delaware, and Stony Brook which were 3 of the 5 other CAA playoff teams in 2018. With these unbalanced schedules in conferences like the Big Sky and CAA that have 12 or 13 teams there's always going to be some very uneven schedule strengths that are just luck of the draw in terms of who gets the easier or tougher league schedule from year to year.

[KPSUL]

You guys have not beaten us in 4 years, I would not count this weekend as a slam dunkxthumbsupx

And Freshman QB Joe Fagnano is playing better each successive game. Maine could play a spoiler in some of these last 4 games.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Every CAA team misses 3 other CAA teams each year on their conference schedule. This year Elon is missing Villanova, Stony Brook, and Albany which, as of now, are 3 of the top 5 ranked CAA teams. Last year Maine missed JMU, Delaware, and Stony Brook which were 3 of the 5 other CAA playoff teams in 2018. With these unbalanced schedules in conferences like the Big Sky and CAA that have 12 or 13 teams there's always going to be some very uneven schedule strengths that are just luck of the draw in terms of who gets the easier or tougher league schedule from year to year.

My point is Nova, SB and Albany may not end up as 3 of the top 5 with 4 games remaining.

[Gangtackle11]

I’ll update this tonight, but this exercise proved to me that Massey is worthless at predicting CAA football. xpeacex

[Gangtackle11]

Team Record Date Opponent % to win game

James Madison 8-1 (5-0)
11/9/19 UNH 90%
11/16/19 Richmond 94%
11/23/19 @Rhode Island 96%
Projection 11-1 (8-0) In - Seeded


Richmond 5-4 (4-1)
11/9/19 @Villanova 31%
11/16/19 @JMU 6%
11/23/19 W&M 63%
Projection 6-6 (5-3) Out


UNH 5-3 (4-1)
11/9/19 @JMU 10%
11/16/19 @Albany 57%
11/23/19 Maine 61%
Projection 7-4 (6-2) In


Albany 5-4 (3-2)
11/9/19 @Delaware * 50%
11/16/19 UNH 43%
11/23/19 @Stony Brook 44%
Projection 5-7 (3-5) Out


Villanova 6-3 (3-3)
11/9/19 Richmond 69%
11/15/19 LIU 100%
11/23/19 Delaware 71%
Projection 9-3 (5-3) In


Towson 5-4 (2-3)
11/9/19 @Stony Brook 54%
11/16/19 @W&M 65%
11/23/19 Elon 52%
Projection 8-4 (5-3) In

Stony Brook 5-4 (2-3)
11/9/19 Towson 46%
11/16/19 @Delaware 52%
11/23/19 Albany 56%
Projection 7-5 (4-4) Out - Bubble

*Massey had Delaware winning 50% game

Projected Playoff Teams:
JMU - Seeded
Villanova
Towson
UNH

[caribbeanhen]

I’ll update this tonight, but this exercise proved to me that Massey is worthless at predicting CAA football. xpeacex


Pick'em Standings:


1
dunbar
75


2
Go Lehigh TU owl
74


T3
bonarae
69


T3
kdinva
69


T3
maine612
69


T3
reeder
69


T3
SUPharmacist
69


T3
UNHWildcat18
69



Massey Predictions
69



Majority Picks
68.5


9
CenMEBlackBearFan
68


T10
GoBlueHens83
67


T10
KPSUL
67


T12
jmu007
66


T12
melloware13
66


T12
SonuvaHenx2
66


T15
MR. CHICKEN
65


T15
TribePride52
65


17
caribbeanhen
64


T18
bluehenbillk
62


T18
Sitting Bull
62


T20
Gangtackle11
61


T20
MayorOfHenTown
61


22
knit35
59


23
DRDukes01
58



Point Spreads
57


24
mainejeff
55


25
SBUFAN33
53


26
jmu8
49


27
hoidOfYolen
47





he's holding his own GT.... Haha

[Gangtackle11]

Pick'em Standings:


1
dunbar
75


2
Go Lehigh TU owl
74


T3
bonarae
69


T3
kdinva
69


T3
maine612
69


T3
reeder
69


T3
SUPharmacist
69


T3
UNHWildcat18
69



Massey Predictions
69



Majority Picks
68.5


9
CenMEBlackBearFan
68


T10
GoBlueHens83
67


T10
KPSUL
67


T12
jmu007
66


T12
melloware13
66


T12
SonuvaHenx2
66


T15
MR. CHICKEN
65


T15
TribePride52
65


17
caribbeanhen
64


T18
bluehenbillk
62


T18
Sitting Bull
62


T20
Gangtackle11
61


T20
MayorOfHenTown
61


22
knit35
59


23
DRDukes01
58



Point Spreads
57


24
mainejeff
55


25
SBUFAN33
53


26
jmu8
49


27
hoidOfYolen
47





he's holding his own GT.... Haha

He’s got u beat too....Lol. xpeacex

PS: I keep picking Nova & The Dirty Filthy Birds. xpeacex

[caribbeanhen]

He’s got u beat too....Lol. xpeacex

PS: I keep picking Nova & The Dirty Filthy Birds. xpeacex

he sure is, but I never tossed him under the bus......

I might just take the Massey picks the rest of the way to avoid dropping to the cellar..... tough year for picking CAA games

[MR. CHICKEN]

....YEAH-YA.......LOTTA GOOD PICKERS......LIKE ONES/BLUEHENBK/CARIB....AN' REST UH US.....IN BEWILDERMENT......AS NOT JES' CAA....BUT MOS' OTHERAH CONFERENCES........ARE AS SQUIRRLEY AS WE.....AWK!

[Gangtackle11]

he sure is, but I never tossed him under the bus......

I might just take the Massey picks the rest of the way to avoid dropping to the cellar..... tough year for picking CAA games

I don’t have a computer generated system or website either. I’m throwing darts from here on out. xpeacex

[maine612]

Gents, I apologize if this was discussed in other places, but should Maine run the table and finish 7-5, it would seem they would have a shot of squeezing in depending on other results? That would be 5 straight to end the year, a couple FBS losses, 5-3 in the league.... I'm just one man hoping...

612

[Grizzlies82]

Gents, I apologize if this was discussed in other places, but should Maine run the table and finish 7-5, it would seem they would have a shot of squeezing in depending on other results? That would be 5 straight to end the year, a couple FBS losses, 5-3 in the league.... I'm just one man hoping...

612


I would think they'd have a fair shot. 7 wins has been the traditional bar to get playoff consideration. Though in a 12 game season some believe 8 wins will be required. Nobody really knows but I'd guess some 7 win team (teams?) will get in. To some degree it will depend on how many teams finish with 8 or more wins.

Having a couple of FBS losses usually isn't a problem. Finally finishing the year with 5 straight wins would definitely be a plus. The committee almost always rewards finishing strong when weighing teams on the bubble. Five straight wins would certainly stand out. Good luck to your Bears. Yet as always, Go Griz!

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Gents, I apologize if this was discussed in other places, but should Maine run the table and finish 7-5, it would seem they would have a shot of squeezing in depending on other results? That would be 5 straight to end the year, a couple FBS losses, 5-3 in the league.... I'm just one man hoping...

612

Not sure how good our chances are at 7-5 but think they would improve dramatically if UNH was to beat JMU. A win by UNH this Saturday would make them a top 10 team and put them in a tie for the Conference lead and setup the final game in Durham for alot more meaning than just the Musket. Last years performance by Maine in the playoffs certainly won't hurt either.

[Gangtackle11]

Not sure how good our chances are at 7-5 but think they would improve dramatically if UNH was to beat JMU. A win by UNH this Saturday would make them a top 10 team and put them in a tie for the Conference lead and setup the final game in Durham for alot more meaning than just the Musket. Last years performance by Maine in the playoffs certainly won't hurt either.

Nova fan rooting for Maine to finish strong. Helps our cause if we somehow are 8-4 & 4-4 in CAA. Go Black Bears!! xpeacex

[Gangtackle11]

Team Record Date Opponent % to win game

James Madison 9-1 (6-0)
11/16/19 Richmond 95%
11/23/19 @Rhode Island 98%
Projection 11-1 (8-0) In - Seeded


Richmond 5-5 (4-2)
11/16/19 @JMU 5%
11/23/19 W&M 55%
Projection 6-6 (5-3) Out


UNH 5-4 (4-2)
11/16/19 @Albany 45%
11/23/19 Maine 47%
Projection 5-6 (4-4) Out


Albany 6-4 (4-2)
11/16/19 UNH 55%
11/23/19 @Stony Brook 54%
Projection 8-4 (6-2) In


Villanova 7-3 (4-3)
11/15/19 LIU 100%
11/23/19 Delaware 77%
Projection 9-3 (5-3) In


Towson 6-4 (3-3)
11/16/19 @W&M 68%
11/23/19 Elon 62%
Projection 8-4 (5-3) In

Maine 5-5 (3-3)
11/19 Rhode Island 85%
11/23 @ UNH 52%
Projection: 7-5 (5-3) BUBBLE

Stony Brook 5-5 (2-4)
11/16/19 @Delaware 46%
11/23/19 Albany 46%
Projection 5-7 (2-6) Out




Projected Playoff Teams:
JMU - Seeded
Villanova
Towson
Albany
Maine - Bubble

[smilo]

UNH will beat Albany to set up a showdown with Maine for the fourth and final playoff spot. Just as my week 1 AGS Poll indicated, JMU, Towson, Maine and Villanova are in with UNH is firmly on the bubble.

(Oh, I had Delaware in too? Well then, let's just a blind eye to spot #18 on the ballot. 😁)

[CHIP72]

Because the CAA plays an unbalanced conference schedule, the actual conference opponents a team plays, as well as each playoff team’s non-conference schedule, need to be closely evaluated. It is possible a team could have played an “easy” or “hard” conference schedule, in addition to an easy or hard non-conference schedule.


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[Dukie95]

Because the CAA plays an unbalanced conference schedule, the actual conference opponents a team plays, as well as each playoff team’s non-conference schedule, need to be closely evaluated. It is possible a team could have played an “easy” or “hard” conference schedule, in addition to an easy or hard non-conference schedule.


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Usually yes, but it's pretty simple this year. If you had URI, and not JMU, you had an easy schedule (UD, Albany, JMU). If you had JMU and not URI you had a hard one (UR and Nova). Everyone else is basically identical.

[caribbeanhen]

UNH will beat Albany to set up a showdown with Maine for the fourth and final playoff spot. Just as my week 1 AGS Poll indicated, JMU, Towson, Maine and Villanova are in with UNH is firmly on the bubble.

(Oh, I had Delaware in too? Well then, let's just a blind eye to spot #18 on the ballot. 😁)

not so sure UNH beats Albany