FBS Scalp and No Playoff???

[Milktruck74]

So Far I know Central Arkansas, Southern Illinois and Citadel all have an FBS scalp (I probably missed another so add it). At the mid way point, it looks like UCA is the only one of the three that will make the playoffs....and that is not assured, they still have some tough games to play in their conference. I'm just thinking, when was the last time a FCS squad got a P% scalp and didn't make the playoffs?

[F'N Hawks]

No comment.....

[ncspiderfan]

2006 and 2011 Richmond beat Duke, but ended 2006 6-5, then completely fell apart in 2011 starting 3-0 out of conference and going 0-8 in conference.

[Gangtackle11]

Nova beat Temple in last season’s opener. Finished 5-6. xpeacex

[Beer]

Probably not what you're looking for but you didn't specify, so...

2006: NDSU beats Ball State but is ineligible for playoffs due to transition
2007: NDSU beats Minnesota but is ineligible for playoffs due to transition

[Dukie95]

JMU in 2010, beat VT, missed playoffs.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think it happens quite a bit. That's why I never overvalue them. I did not rank The Citadel after they beat Georgia Tech this year.

[UAalum72]

2016 Albany beat Buffalo, finished 7-4, no bid

[Catatonic]

2014- Abilene Christian beat Troy but is ineligible for playoffs due to transition

[Hood]

I think you meant "Power 5" in your initial post and also mean winning records but:

2001 Nicholls beat Arkansas State to go 3-8 on the year. Obviously, not a playoff team.
2007 Nicholls beat Rice but went 6-5 that year, missed out on the playoffs due to sloppy late season play.
2013 Nicholls beat a horrible Western Michigan team, but went 4-8 so again, no playoffs.

We did beat power 5 Kansas (I use that term loosely for their 2018 squad) and made the playoffs in 2018, so there is that for your equation.

[ElCid]

So Far I know Central Arkansas, Southern Illinois and Citadel all have an FBS scalp (I probably missed another so add it). At the mid way point, it looks like UCA is the only one of the three that will make the playoffs....and that is not assured, they still have some tough games to play in their conference. I'm just thinking, when was the last time a FCS squad got a P% scalp and didn't make the playoffs?

It ain't over yet bubba:D We could end up 8-4 still. Not likely, but not that crazy out of the realm of possibility. We are favored by Massey to beat Mercer and ETSU, and UTC is close to a toss up. Wofford showing a little tougher but I am not sure about that. Only humdinger is Furman at this point. We somehow pull that if and all bets are off. Big hill to climb there though. We end up 8-4 and there is no way we will miss it. Not with 3 one score losses to decent teams. VMI is long time rival and not a horrible loss. At 7-5...no, probably not.

Also, we beat Navy in 89 and missed it at 5-5-1. That year got screwed by Hugo. We also beat Army in 91 and missed it at 7-4.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Villanova (7-4 no playoffs) beat Temple in 2003 when the Owls were still in the Big East. That was when the Big East was very much big time; Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College and well, still awful Rutgers.

[Milktruck74]

It ain't over yet bubba:D We could end up 8-4 still. Not likely, but not that crazy out of the realm of possibility. We are favored by Massey to beat Mercer and ETSU, and UTC is close to a toss up. Wofford showing a little tougher but I am not sure about that. Only humdinger is Furman at this point. We somehow pull that if and all bets are off. Big hill to climb there though. We end up 8-4 and there is no way we will miss it. Not with 3 one score losses to decent teams. VMI is long time rival and not a horrible loss. At 7-5...no, probably not.

Also, we beat Navy in 89 and missed it at 5-5-1. That year got screwed by Hugo. We also beat Army in 91 and missed it at 7-4.

Yeah, there is possible and there is probable... Hahah. I won't count you out, but it is a steep uphill climb to get there.

[The Yo Show]

2012 YSU beat Pitt and finished 7-4 with no playoffs.

[wapiti]

How many FCS team lost to a Div 2 and still made the playoffs?
MSU lost to Chadron State and made the playoffs.

Did UM make the playoffs the year they lost to Div 2 NDSU?

[gofurman]

not P5 but close. Furman beat UCF in 2015 (on a 55 yard FG ) and yet our total record was 4-7 for the year (two FBS games of VTEch and UCF).. one year later our coach was fired for Hendrix now

[FUBeAR]

How many FCS team lost to a Div 2 and still made the playoffs?
MSU lost to Chadron State and made the playoffs.

Did UM make the playoffs the year they lost to Div 2 NDSU?How about losing to a D2 to open the season, completely wrecking a P5 in the middle, and finishing up by losing the National Championship by an eyelash?

That’s what Furman did in 1985...

Lost to Newberry (may have been NAIA at the time) 21-24
Destroyed NC State 42-20 (it wasn’t that close)
Lost to GaSou on a final seconds TD pass 42-44

Bonus Trivia: Furman’s QB in those 3 games? Current Mercer Head Coach, Bobby Lamb.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Sam Houston State lost to eventual D2 national champ CSU-Pueblo in 2014 yet made it to the semifinals of the FCS playoffs....

[NY Crusader 2010]

Interesting topic but the initial question almost disrespects the quality of play at the FCS level. The list of teams that got an FBS / I-A scalp and missed the postseason is expansive. Probably at least 20. Off the top of the head, here are some examples not mentioned previously:

Yale over Army in 2014 -- yes I know Ivy's have a postseason ban but Yale finished like 4th that year and wouldn't have been a playoff team
Holy Cross over Army in 2002 -- HC wasn't even competitive in the PL that year.
Maine over Mississippi State in 2004
Georgia Southern over Florida in 2012 -- may have been ineligible during transition but was a 7-4 team in SoCon that year
The Citadel a handful of times it feels like....
Howard over UNLV two years ago
Cal-Davis over Stanford in 2006 while they were transitioning from D-2
William & Mary over Navy in '87 and '91 -- last two meetings between the schools occurred during Laycock's only two losing seasons in about a 15 year stretch. I was in the womb at Navy-Marine Corps Stadium for the 1987 game, a Tribe shutout I think.

Probably a billion examples of mediocre FCS teams beating transitioning FBS schools.

A better question would be, how many I-AA/FCS teams have missed the playoffs after beating a RANKED I-A/FBS team?

To my knowledge JMU is the only one to do this, finishing 6-5 after knocking off #9 Virginia Tech in 2010, as previously mentioned. Drake came close last year, falling 27-24 to #25 Iowa State.

[Milktruck74]

This has been a fun and informative thread...keep em coming!!!

[NY Crusader 2010]

Sam Houston State lost to eventual D2 national champ CSU-Pueblo in 2014 yet made it to the semifinals of the FCS playoffs....

Didn't New Haven beat Villanova in 1997 or 1998 in a year where 'Nova was a playoff team?

[JALMOND]

So Far I know Central Arkansas, Southern Illinois and Citadel all have an FBS scalp (I probably missed another so add it). At the mid way point, it looks like UCA is the only one of the three that will make the playoffs....and that is not assured, they still have some tough games to play in their conference. I'm just thinking, when was the last time a FCS squad got a P% scalp and didn't make the playoffs?


2006 Portland State beat New Mexico, 17-6. finished 7-4 and didn't go to the playoffs. Viks only losses were to Cal who won their bowl, Oregon who won their bowl, and Montana and Montana State who both won their first round playoff games. New Mexico also won their bowl game that year as well.

[mvemjsunpx]

Didn't New Haven beat Villanova in 1997 or 1998 in a year where 'Nova was a playoff team?

It was actually 2001. Nova went 8-3 and shared the A-10 title with 4 other teams, but they were the only one left out of the playoffs.


Aside from 2014 SHSU, I can think of 4 other teams off the top of my head that made the playoffs with a non-DI loss:

1988 Montana - lost to Portland State, then lost in the first round
2003 Montana - lost to NDSU, then lost in the first round in double-OT
2003 FAU - lost to Valdosta State (by 28 points!), then lost in the semis
2006 Montana St. - lost to Chadron St. (a week after beating Colorado), then lost in the quarters

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Didn't New Haven beat Villanova in 1997 or 1998 in a year where 'Nova was a playoff team?

2001 lost to New Haven 17-14 finished 8-3 but no playoffs. Needed to beat W&M in the season finale to earn the A-10 auto-bid which they did not do.....

[ST_Lawson]

2006 - WIU goes 3-0 in OOC including a 28-23 win over Northern Illinois. Then goes 3-5 in the conference to finish 6-5 overall.
1999 - WIU starts the season 3-0 including a 27-21 win over Northern Illinois. Then goes 4-4 the rest of the season (2-4 in the Gateway) to finish 7-4 and miss the playoffs (16 team playoff)
1986 - WIU plays 2 FBS games that season, losing 35-7 at K-State but later beating Northern Illinois (seeing a pattern here?) 10-0, but finished the season at 6-5, with 3 of the wins over DII teams (Mankato State, Northern Michigan, and Northwest Missouri State). 16 team playoff.

[BEAR]

Going off the OP, UCA is 4-2 with a loss to FBS Hawaii (expected) and a pretty solid top 15 FCS Nicholls.

Remaining games:

NWST (Solid W IMO)
SHSU at UCA (Winnable at Estes)
Lamar on road (Tossup to loss. Road games at Lamar are tough.)
SLU at UCA (Tossup to winnable. Not sure on SLU. They looked so strong then recently they've dropped hard. )
SFA at UCA (Winnable though they are young they are showing great signs of talent. )
UIW on road (Tossup to loss. UIW is playing solid. )

In my opinion we could be worse case scenario 8-4 and MAYBE second in conference. But to win it we need Nicholls to lose one and we have to not only win all our home games but steal two on the road. Should be a good enough resume to get an at large with an FBS win and a win over APSU.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Oh yes, I remember that game. I was supposed to go to the W&M-Villanova game that year but it was postponed after 9/11. Game was re-scheduled in November and Tribe won in a shootout. Brian Westbrook was on that Nova team. William & Mary played and lost to App State in Round of 16.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Villanova (7-4 no playoffs) beat Temple in 2003 when the Owls were still in the Big East. That was when the Big East was very much big time; Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College and well, still awful Rutgers.

Another one I forgot -- William & Mary beat Temple in 1998. That was one of the seemingly many years the Tribe finished 7-4 after a heartbreaking November loss the week before the Richmond game. This time it was a loss to UConn in Williamsburg. This was also the Huskies' last year in the A-10 as they began their transition to I-A the following year. Continuing on the topic, UCONN lost numerous games to mediocre I-AA teams (URI, Northeastern and possibly Yale too) during a rough first couple years of moving up.

[mvfcfan]

I think it was 2012, but Indiana State completely destroyed Western Kentucky 44-16. Indiana State went on to finish 6-5 and missed the playoffs, while Western KY went on and finished 7-1 (2nd place) in Sun Belt play.

ISU also beat Eastern Michigan 21-14 back in 2001 and didn't make the playoffs (finished 3-8).

Eastern Illinois beat Miami OH 21-17 in 2016, but finished 6-5 overall and missed the playoffs.

[Sader87]

Just to be a completist, HC beat Army in 1986 and 1987 but those 10-1 and 11-0 teams were ineligible for the playoffs per PL rules at the time.

[skinny_uncle]

This time would be a first for Southern Illinois, but UMass may be one of the worst teams in the FBS.

[ElCid]

This time would be a first for Southern Illinois, but UMass may be one of the worst teams in the FBS.

Massey has UMass as 216 out of 256...in all of Div I...which puts them in the bottom third of FCS....somewhere around Lehigh and Campell. But Akron is trying hard to be lower and is hot on their heels at #214.

[ysubigred]

This is no shocker getting a scalp and not going to the big dance xtroublex

YSU pummeled Pitt 31-17 in 2012 went 7-4 and did not make the playoffs. Pitt was no powerhouse finishing regular season 6-6 and losing their bowl game to finish 6-7 against Ole Miss.

[bobcathpdevil56]

How many FCS team lost to a Div 2 and still made the playoffs?
MSU lost to Chadron State and made the playoffs.

Did UM make the playoffs the year they lost to Div 2 NDSU?

I believe that was the year the beat Colorado? Then came home and lost to Chadron and the Fighting Danny Woodheads

[skinny_uncle]

Massey has UMass as 216 out of 256...in all of Div I...which puts them in the bottom third of FCS....somewhere around Lehigh and Campell. But Akron is trying hard to be lower and is hot on their heels at #214.

UMass did beat Akron.

[Milktruck74]

Going off the OP, UCA is 4-2 with a loss to FBS Hawaii (expected) and a pretty solid top 15 FCS Nicholls.

Remaining games:

NWST (Solid W IMO)
SHSU at UCA (Winnable at Estes)
Lamar on road (Tossup to loss. Road games at Lamar are tough.)
SLU at UCA (Tossup to winnable. Not sure on SLU. They looked so strong then recently they've dropped hard. )
SFA at UCA (Winnable though they are young they are showing great signs of talent. )
UIW on road (Tossup to loss. UIW is playing solid. )

In my opinion we could be worse case scenario 8-4 and MAYBE second in conference. But to win it we need Nicholls to lose one and we have to not only win all our home games but steal two on the road. Should be a good enough resume to get an at large with an FBS win and a win over APSU.

UCA has the best shot of the three to make the playoffs, and having watched a bit of their APSU game (and APSU v Jax St to compare), they are good enough to be there. That said, they are far from a shoe in. They still have a bunch of work to do to get there. Finish 4-2 on the last six and they will get there, but 3-3 probably won't cut it.

[Redbird 4th & short]

ISUr last year beat 3-9 Colorado St by 16 (was up 22 late Q4 and gave up meaningless TD with less than 2 mins) ... finished 6-5 .. no playoffs.

[Redbird 4th & short]

2012 YSU beat Pitt and finished 7-4 with no playoffs.
You guys were flat our screwed by committee that year ... 3 of your 4 losses were to 14-1 NDSU (champ), 9-4 SDSU (final 16 team), 9-4 ISUr (final 8 team), and then 6-5 SIU. You beat a 6-6 P5 FBS team by 14 and went 4-4 in MVFC ... absolutely screwed out of bid. MVFC got 3 bids that year and clearly should have had 4.

Then in 2013, you got screwed again as an 8-4 team ... 4 losses were to Mich St and 3 losses were to a very tough 7-5 UNI team, 14-1 NDSU, and 9-5 SDSU. MVFC got just 2 bid this season and clearly should have had a 3rd or more.

Then slipped a bit to 7-5 in 2014, the year we got 5 teams in playoffs .. tough year to win in MVFC, you went 4-4 in conf and 3-1 OOC .. arguably should have also made playoffs in that really strong MVFC season .... and fired your coach after the season as a result I assume.

Side note, Colonial got 6 bids in 2018 and tanked. We got 5 bids in 2014 and dominated, and arguably deserved a 6th bid that year.

So I think YSU had strong arguments all 3 seasons for playoff bids ... sorry for tangent ... eh, not really.

[X-Factor]

Sam Houston State lost to eventual D2 national champ CSU-Pueblo in 2014 yet made it to the semifinals of the FCS playoffs....

Not only lost, but got their doors absolutely blown the F off. That was the most head scratcher of a game I can remember given the turn around SHSU had making a semi final appearance!

[ASU33]

2017-Howard beat UNLV and went on to a 7-4 record-no post season

[The Yo Show]

This is no shocker getting a scalp and not going to the big dance xtroublex

YSU pummeled Pitt 31-17 in 2012 went 7-4 and did not make the playoffs. Pitt was no powerhouse finishing regular season 6-6 and losing their bowl game to finish 6-7 against Ole Miss.

Yep, red I said basically the same thing on reply #14.

[JayJ79]

So I think YSU had strong arguments all 3 seasons for playoff bids ... sorry for tangent ... eh, not really.
I think alot of it is due to soft OOC scheduling by YSU. Quite often it is an FBS money game and then 2-3 games against non-scholy or limited-scholy teams. Then the Penguins have a mediocre year in conference play, end up on the bubble, but the committee ends up selecting another team with a more challenging OOC slate (or sometimes they give the spot to a 2nd team from a lesser conference with a roughly equivalent overall schedule because they don't want to give too many bids to the MVFC).

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think alot of it is due to soft OOC scheduling by YSU. Quite often it is an FBS money game and then 2-3 games against non-scholy or limited-scholy teams. Then the Penguins have a mediocre year in conference play, end up on the bubble, but the committee ends up selecting another team with a more challenging OOC slate (or sometimes they give the spot to a 2nd team from a lesser conference with a roughly equivalent overall schedule because they don't want to give too many bids to the MVFC).
That presumes their conference schedule plus the P5 FBS games are somehow not strong enough to offset the 2 usually weak OOC games Most teams play 1 weak OOC .. so were only talking about 1 extra weak OOC by comparison. I would argue their SOS overall is still top 15 or 20 at worst. Weve seen weaker SOS teams get questionable bids with same or worse records.

[ysubigred]

Yep, red I said basically the same thing on reply #14.

Oh.. When threads get past two pages I don't go back and read the whole thing.

[Redbird 4th & short]

UMass did beat Akron.

Akron being the 2nd worst FBS team per Massey Composite .... heard UMass is really pissed at Massey !!!

Here is current Massey bottom 10 ... the vote was so close



Team
Conf
W-L
Δ
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Sort
COL
ARG
MAS
BAS
PFZ
BIH
BIL
CGV
BMC
DES
DUN
DWI
FMG
HOW
KAM
CSL
MRK
MAR
MAU
MOR
PIG
RTH
MJS
SAG
SOR
DOK
WEL
WLK
WIL
WOL
NUT
COF
BRN
DOL
DP
RUD
ASH
KEL
LAZ
HAT
LAW
BCM
GBE
JNK
KLK
MTN
BDF
ABC
KPK
MvG
MGN
FEI
ISR
HEN
STH
SP
PGH
BSS
CTW
RT
RWP
DEZ
HKB
DCI
SFX
PAY
RTB
VRN
KNT
RTP
PPP
HNL
OSC
PIR
KEN
GLD
BBT
TPR
DII
MDS
RME
LOG
FPI
TRP
ENG
LSD
BWE
LAB
FAS
JTR
MGS
SMS
SGR
JNG
JJK
CPI
CQI
BKP
AP
USA
RDT
Mean
StDev



UT San Antonio (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7900&s=308075)
CUSA (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=11312)
2-4
-3
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120.32
4.73



New Mexico (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5371&s=308075)
MWC (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=12734)
2-4
-6
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120.33
3.57



Rutgers (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=6696&s=308075)
B10 (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=10678)
1-5
-2
123
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121.49
4.71



Old Dominion (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5925&s=308075)
CUSA (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=11312)
1-5
-1
124
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122.88
3.60



South Alabama (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7237&s=308075)
SBC (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=14238)
1-6
-1
125
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123.68
2.69



Connecticut (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=1872&s=308075)
AAC (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=200137)
1-5
+1
126
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125.82
2.01



New Mexico St (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5387&s=308075)
FBSI (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=9224)
0-7
-1
127
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125.98
2.66



UTEP (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=7933&s=308075)
CUSA (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=11312)
1-4

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126.21
2.69



Akron (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=66&s=308075)
MAC (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=12526)
0-6

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129.10
0.99



Massachusetts (https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=4548&s=308075)
FBSI (https://www.masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf2019&sub=9224)
1-6

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129.15
1.2

[The Yo Show]

Oh.. When threads get past two pages I don't go back and read the whole thing.

xthumbsupx haha its not an issue at all