Conference Halfway Surprises...

[Milktruck74]

I'll start with the SoCon.

Good Surprise - VMI is playing well, they have been so bad for so long and every year was going to be the year that they get better...well it looks like this year is it. 2-1 in the conference, with wins over last year's champ and a team with an FBS Scalp.

Bad Surprise - Mercer, Mercer has been on the brink ofa breakout season, and it initially looked like this might be it....and nope!!! They are playing pretty uninspired football.



General Conference Surprise - We all expected the conference as a whole to be down a bit, but the OOC (fcs) record is rough. We may only see the SoCon as a one bid league this year.


What do you have?

[Redbird 4th & short]

MVFC .. upper half is strong (NDSU, SDSU, UNI, YSU) and other than my Redbirds to this point, it is about what I expected. But the lower half is much weaker than I expected ... though SIU is showing a pulse, WIU and MoST are not, and USD is barely hanging on. Haven't yet given up on my Redbirds, but it has been disappointing 3-2 start .. record is what most expected with losses to NIU and NDSU, but we are clearly not clicking yet.

Agree on SoCon .. very rough start. And hard to pick up ground plahing in conference ... just no real way to tell once OOC season is over, until playoffs.

[ST_Lawson]

MVFC .. upper half is strong (NDSU, SDSU, UNI, YSU) and other than my Redbirds to this point, it is about what I expected. But the lower half is much weaker than I expected ... though SIU is showing a pulse, WIU and MoST are not, and USD is barely hanging on. Haven't yet given up on my Redbirds, but it has been disappointing 3-2 start .. record is what most expected with losses to NIU and NDSU, but we are clearly not clicking yet.

Same...I was hopeful we'd be halfway decent...but worried we'd be not so great. So far, we've been worse than what I considered my "worst case scenario" at the start of the season...so...that's fun.
I thought that NDSU might have a little bit of a drop-off this year, but so far, that doesn't appear to be the case. YSU has also done a little better than I thought they would going into the season. Otherwise I think everyone's right about where I expected them to be so far.

[Milktruck74]

NDSU is the UCLA basketball of the Wooden era....No Doubt they are the creme de la creme....but it comes to an end one day...but WHEN???? hahaha.

[Gangtackle11]

Ask Mr.Chicken if he thought the 9th seeded preseason ranked Villanova Wildcats would be 6-0 at this point? Tough game tomorrow, but the Wildcats are playing with house $$$. xpeacex

[MSUBobcat]

In the Big Sky.... well.... I figured UM would be better than last year, but they have far exceeded my expectations. MSU has been slightly better than I anticipated. Weber is really good, but that was anticipated. Sacramento State clearly has to be the "good surprise".

As everyone on AGS is quite aware the biggest surprises (BAD) in the BSC, and perhaps FCS altogether, is how shockingly bad EWU and Davis have been. From being expected to contend for the conference championship to needing to nearly run the table in the 2nd half just to make the playoffs. EWU can maybe drop the game in Missoula, but 7-5 with a D-II win and UND likely being their signature win is precarious at best. Davis still has Weber and MSU at home and @ Sac State. In the unlikely event they only lose one of those 3, they have a better chance to make the playoffs at 7-5 due to all loses being "quality" along with 2 quality wins.

As usual, been a bit of a WILD year in the Big Sky.

[Milktruck74]

As usual, been a bit of a WILD year in the ENTIRE FCS.

FIFY

[Redbird 4th & short]

In the Big Sky.... well.... I figured UM would be better than last year, but they have far exceeded my expectations. MSU has been slightly better than I anticipated. Weber is really good, but that was anticipated. Sacramento State clearly has to be the "good surprise".

As everyone on AGS is quite aware the biggest surprises (BAD) in the BSC, and perhaps FCS altogether, is how shockingly bad EWU and Davis have been. From being expected to contend for the conference championship to needing to nearly run the table in the 2nd half just to make the playoffs. EWU can maybe drop the game in Missoula, but 7-5 with a D-II win and UND likely being their signature win is precarious at best. Davis still has Weber and MSU at home and @ Sac State. In the unlikely event they only lose one of those 3, they have a better chance to make the playoffs at 7-5 due to all loses being "quality" along with 2 quality wins.

As usual, been a bit of a WILD year in the Big Sky.

Not sure about the "as usual" part ... this year seems like there's been more than usual surprises in both directions in Big Sky

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The Patriot League is actually worse than last year.

[ST_Lawson]

NDSU is the UCLA basketball of the Wooden era....No Doubt they are the creme de la creme....but it comes to an end one day...but WHEN???? hahaha.

Probably when the "Great Reshuffling" occurs and NDSU, SDSU, maybe UNI and ILSU end up in the same division as Northern Illinois, Wyoming, and Central Michigan. They'll still be pretty successful even against those teams, just slightly less dominant.

[gofurman]

I'll start with the SoCon.

Good Surprise - VMI is playing well, they have been so bad for so long and every year was going to be the year that they get better...well it looks like this year is it. 2-1 in the conference, with wins over last year's champ and a team with an FBS Scalp.

Bad Surprise - Mercer, Mercer has been on the brink ofa breakout season, and it initially looked like this might be it....and nope!!! They are playing pretty uninspired football.



General Conference Surprise - We all expected the conference as a whole to be down a bit, but the OOC (fcs) record is rough. We may only see the SoCon as a one bid league this year.


What do you have?

little bit detail but how about Citadel in SoCon beating GTech of ACC and losing every SoCon game.. IE Citadel is 1-0 vs ACC and 0-2 in SoCon Or looked at another way, Citadel is 1-0 vs FBS and and 1-4 vs FCS ! that has to be a rarity

[The Boogie Down]

Probably when the "Great Reshuffling" occurs and NDSU, SDSU, maybe UNI and ILSU end up in the same division as Northern Illinois, Wyoming, and Central Michigan. They'll still be pretty successful even against those teams, just slightly less dominant.

I've been hearing about the "Great Reshuffling" for almost a decade now. Before even signing up here, back when I was just lurking, I remember people getting panned for talking up a G-5/FCS merger.

So my Q now is, when???

[Catbooster]

A little "surprise" announcement coming during the Homecoming game tomorrow in Bozeman:
https://twitter.com/MSUBobcats/status/1182787677067698176?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1182787677067698176&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwi tter.min.html%231182787677067698176

[Daytripper]

Every single week in the Southland. Who the f*** knows what will happen?

[bonarae]

We'll return after next week for the Ivies... xwhistlex

[ElCid]

little bit detail but how about Citadel in SoCon beating GTech of ACC and losing every SoCon game.. IE Citadel is 1-0 vs ACC and 0-2 in SoCon Or looked at another way, Citadel is 1-0 vs FBS and and 1-4 vs FCS ! that has to be a rarity

Yeah, but our starting QB also got hurt at GATech. If he is healthy we are probably 3-2 in FCS. He had been gimpy ever since and limited in his running. With our bback out as well, the record is an oddity, but if you consider the injuries, it is easily explainable. That is still 2 FCS losses, but we were still on the upswing those first two games.

[ST_Lawson]

I've been hearing about the "Great Reshuffling" for almost a decade now. Before even signing up here, back when I was just lurking, I remember people getting panned for talking up a G-5/FCS merger.

So my Q now is, when???

My guess...probably around 2050 or so...maybe never. At this point, the P5's are getting the lion's share of the money, so they have no reason to push for change. The G5's don't have the power to get much more than the scraps that are left over.

[Milktruck74]

I was able to go back and watch the VMI v Sammy game....VMI is strong enough to win 3 or 4 more. They are currently 3rd in the soCon and could stay there....Whaaaaa?????? They are strong enough to finish in the top half. The loss to Bob is tough, but.....

[Cocky]

OVC surprises:
Good:
AP
UTM
TTU

Bad:
JSU
SEMO but not as bad as JSU

At least the conference is interesting may not be good but its interesting.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Preseason Top 20 Colgate is 0-7 and 0-2 in the PL with losses against Bucknell and Lehigh. Bucknell's win over the Raiders yesterday snapped their school record 11 game losing streak...lol. No one saw this train wreck coming....

[Hood]

While I'm surprised the Colonels are undefeated in SLC play, I'm not going to be surprised when they hit the buzzsaw that is some of the more elite (and other surprises) towards this latter half. Our defense has been getting beat by some stinker teams (with apologies to our conference rivals, it's all fun) and we'll be one and done if we even finish with a playoff bid.

[Milktruck74]

OVC surprises:
Good:
AP
UTM
TTU

Bad:
JSU
SEMO but not as bad as JSU

At least the conference is interesting may not be good but its interesting.

SoCon too!!!

[AmsterBison]

South Dakota is tied for first in the MVFC. They gave up 50 pts per game in their first three games (Montana, Oklahoma, Houston Baptist) and have given up 16 total points in their last three games (Northern Colorado, Indiana State, Missouri State.)

After giving up 53 to Houston Baptist, I thought there was a very real possibility that South Dakota might not win another game this year.

[Catatonic]

Every single week in the Southland. Who the f*** knows what will happen?
This. So very much this.

[PaladinFan]

For Furman, my great surprise is the play of Darren Grainger.

Going into the season, I thought that Furman could have a pretty good run this year if we could find consistent QB play. Grainger has looked every bit the part of a big time QB at this level. He is only a freshman and looks like he is only going to get better with experience.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

South Dakota is tied for first in the MVFC. They gave up 50 pts per game in their first three games (Montana, Oklahoma, Houston Baptist) and have given up 16 total points in their last three games (Northern Colorado, Indiana State, Missouri State.)

After giving up 53 to Houston Baptist, I thought there was a very real possibility that South Dakota might not win another game this year.



3 monster teams there....xlolx

Let's see how they do against teams with a heartbeat. This week against UNI is a good start.

[cx500d]

Preseason Top 20 Colgate is 0-7 and 0-2 in the PL with losses against Bucknell and Lehigh. Bucknell's win over the Raiders yesterday snapped their school record 11 game losing streak...lol. No one saw this train wreck coming....

I’m amazed at the collapse of Colgate this year....they are so bad maybe even Furman wouldn’t duck them this year


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[PaladinFan]

I’m amazed at the collapse of Colgate this year....they are so bad maybe even Furman wouldn’t duck them this year


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If you are going to troll, don't be so obvious about it.

[cx500d]

If you are going to troll, don't be so obvious about it.

Was that obvious here too?


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[BEAR]

While I'm surprised the Colonels are undefeated in SLC play, I'm not going to be surprised when they hit the buzzsaw that is some of the more elite (and other surprises) towards this latter half. Our defense has been getting beat by some stinker teams (with apologies to our conference rivals, it's all fun) and we'll be one and done if we even finish with a playoff bid.

I honestly think you got the benefit of our poor coaching in that blowout with us. It appeared our coaches were determined to run Carlos for 3 quarters in EVERY game they could and NOT change the plan. It's one of the reasons we are next to dead last in rushing this season! They just wouldn't change the plan. Well they finally did against McNeese and surprise surprise...look how we handled a pretty decent Cowboy defense. Plus Carlos' runs were more effective when the fear of a pass was there. I'd love to see this new game plan run against the Colonels but even more I'd like to see us STICK with it and NOT revert back to the plans of the 5 previous games. xrotatehx

[Gil Dobie]

Western Illinois surprises me. Thought they would be better.

[FUBeAR]

Was that obvious here too?


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https://i.giphy.com/media/j8080dkr0ux1e/giphy.gif

[UNHWildcat18]

I’m very surprised by UNH so far. The fumble at the half yard line for a scoop and score with 1 min to go separates them from 5-1. Played a tough game vs FIU. 4-0 since, won on the road vs SBU. Little dukes could win the NEC. All with having the youngest line up on both sides that we’ve probably ever started with. True freshman QB at the helm, (except for the HC game.

not saying they are a deep playoff team but definitely headed in the right direction.

[MSUBobcat]

Not sure about the "as usual" part ... this year seems like there's been more than usual surprises in both directions in Big Sky

So in 2016, PSU falling from a 2nd place finish and a 9-3 record in 2015 to a 3-8 record, UM going from a playoff team and 8-5 record to their first losing record in conference in.... forever, while Poly going from 4-7 to the playoffs, those weren't surprises?
In 2017, UND going from 9-3 to 3-8, the aforementioned Poly going from playoffs to almost-cellar dwelling 1-10, and Sac State (2-9 in 2016) finishing 7-4, those are all predictable?
In 2018, Southern Utah falling off a cliff from tying for the conference championship in 2017 to finish 12th, Sac State was 6-2 in conference in 2017 then went winless, Davis (3-5/4-7 in 2017) came out of nowhere en route to a quarterfinal finish was something everyone saw coming?

Given that 7 of 14 teams (including UND and Idaho, though they've never been in conference at the same time) have had results that most wouldn't have predicted in just the previous 3 seasons, I stand by my "as usual" assessment. The few constants are UNC is typically bad, NAU, MSU and ISU-o are consistently middle of the pack looking to break out and Weber and EWU were top of the conference those years.

[NEBison]

I’m amazed at the collapse of Colgate this year....they are so bad maybe even Furman wouldn’t duck them this year


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They never recovered from the physical toll they took from JMU last year.

[Anthony215]

Preseason Top 20 Colgate is 0-7 and 0-2 in the PL with losses against Bucknell and Lehigh. Bucknell's win over the Raiders yesterday snapped their school record 11 game losing streak...lol. No one saw this train wreck coming....

How bad is Colgate to lose to Bucknell of all Patriot League teams. I guess the game with Colgate/Lafayette will be their own playoff game since that'll probably be the only game one of those teams win this year. Georgetown with 4 wins on the young season has really caught me off guard they played Fordham tough and if not for a complete defensive lapse on that final drive they'd be leading the Patriot League.

[ST_Lawson]

They never recovered from the physical toll they took from JMU last year.

I think NDSU just crushed their will to live.