AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 5 2019

[superman7515]

Good evening. Here's the list for this week. A lot of bye weeks on the sheet tonight, but as the Ivy's have finally played a couple of games, SOS has been added back in. It currently only reflects through last week, but everything will be updated tomorrow.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16an7XJc8jt5Rj7m9F8cUSmrD_9-Dt4dLzjItsf2QXTA/edit?usp=sharing

As always, if you see any errors, please let me know.

[Professor Chaos]

Not saying they need to be in or out of your poll but keep in mind that Houston Baptist is a late FG away from being 5-0 with an FBS win. What a turnaround for them this year.... following in the footsteps of fellow SLC teams Incarnate Word and Lamar who came out of the depths of the conference last year to make some noise.

[Daytripper]

Not saying they need to be in or out of your poll but keep in mind that Houston Baptist is a late FG away from being 5-0 with an FBS win. What a turnaround for them this year.... following in the footsteps of fellow SLC teams Incarnate Word and Lamar who came out of the depths of the conference last year to make some noise.

Yep. They will show up in my poll this week.

[MSUBobcat]

Anyone else getting an error for the link?

[SonuvaHenx2]

Yep. They will show up in my poll this week.

Ditto.
Of course, also running really low on teams with >.500 records

[MSUBobcat]

Fair to say JSUsoutherner gets his wish finally this week? No way SLU is ranked below JSU.

[Mayville Bison]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?

[lionsrking2]

Yep. They will show up in my poll this week.

They've been in mine the last two weeks.

[Daytripper]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?

Personally: SLU, UD, APSU, SHSU, EWU, JSU

[TheKingpin28]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?Of these teams, SELA and APSU should be in the poll above the other 4. Now with the other 4 they are more subjective as to where to place them, if they should be in at all.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[ngineer]

Traveling this weekend for my son's wedding in Durham, NC, was able to get some decent wifi and a 'modest' break from "she who must be obeyed" from the various and sundry things that go into weddings (even if we are parents of the groom!), to get my ballot in. Some interesting results this week and shifting in the Big Sky I see.

[smilo]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?

Only one is in my top 30 and that one should be obvious. The rest I have immediately after #30 and are listed in order of H2H, which is more than fair. APSU has a bad loss, but they've looked fine even in defeat. SHSU has not looked great even in victory. UND is totally unproven.

If you wanted to make an argument for EWU and/or JSU in front of APSU on ceiling, I'd listen, but I couldn't rank either ahead myself.

[POD Knows]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?It is brutal, SLU>EWU>APSU>UND>SHSU>JSU or something like this

[Professor Chaos]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?
I'd go SLU, APSU, JSU/EWU (toss-up), UND, SHSU

[Serpentor]

I'd go SLU, APSU, JSU/EWU (toss-up), UND, SHSU

Professor Chaos, we meet again! You will move up SHSU in your standings, THIS, I COMMAND!

[RootinFerDukes]

The SOS ratings from Massey do not appear to be correct. Is there any chance these can be updated? I rely on them when determining between borderline situations.

[RootinFerDukes]

Not saying they need to be in or out of your poll but keep in mind that Houston Baptist is a late FG away from being 5-0 with an FBS win. What a turnaround for them this year.... following in the footsteps of fellow SLC teams Incarnate Word and Lamar who came out of the depths of the conference last year to make some noise.

Current SOS rating is 115th in the country. They're going to need to beat the top Southland teams before most of us entertain voting for them.

Their opponents season to date have a combined 2-19 record. You've got to be kidding me right? Anyone voting for them should have their voting privileges revoked. LOOK PAST THE RECORD!

[superman7515]

Sagarin and Massey ratings have been updated as well as the SOS through this week.

SOS is out of 126 teams at the FCS level; not surprisingly our Ivy friends have the softest schedules played so far with #24 Princeton at 125, #29 Dartmouth at 124, and #31 Yale at 113.

Aside from the Ivy's is Central Connecticut at 120, Youngstown State at 112, Wofford at 111, Stony Brook at 103, and South Dakota State at 100.

A few teams are still getting it done despite being some of the hardest schedules played so far. #33 Sacramento has the #1 toughest schedule, #30 Idaho has the 4th toughest, and #6 Weber State has the 9th toughest, all probably thanks to their two FBS games each have played.

But of the teams who have only one/zero FBS games to boost the rankings into the top 20 most difficult, we still have #39 Idaho State with the 5th toughest schedule, #6 Weber State with the 9th toughest, #4 UC Davis with the 10th toughest, #5 Northern Iowa with the 13th toughest, #35 South Carolina St with the 16th toughest, #28 North Dakota with the 19th toughest, and #25 Eastern Washington with the 20th toughest.

[superman7515]

The SOS ratings from Massey do not appear to be correct. Is there any chance these can be updated? I rely on them when determining between borderline situations.

I don't use the SOS from Massey.

[RootinFerDukes]

I don't use the SOS from Massey.

What do you use? NDSU, JMU and SDSU are 61, 81 and 100 on the spreadsheet. I find that a little hard to believe. Massey has 36, 31 and 30 respectively.

[ST_Lawson]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?

Got a magic 8 ball?...maybe dice?

[RootinFerDukes]

Note this is Nicholls' second FBS loss of the season.

[caribbeanhen]

Note this is Nicholls' second FBS loss of the season.

Nicholls is worth about 5 pennies at this point..... overrated

[gofurman]

I don't use the SOS from Massey.

Superman, first, you do a GREAT job!!! I don't know how you get the time for everything you do.

I do get the SOS questions from some posters though. NOT being pro-Furman but just as an example we have played Virginia Tech AND Georgia State (TWO FBS teams) and, here is the comparison - Kennesaw State has played TWO NAIA teams !!! Not even D2 level but rather two NAIA teams! and the SOS is 64 vs 66 for Furman vs KSU?? No offense to KSU on that - it's just a SOS example I can't figure. I can't see how two (granted, poor but still..) FBS teams on one schedule can equal the TWO NAIA teams of POINT and REINHARDT? I do see KSU played Kent State. OK, I grant that as I am trying to be objective. Say that Kent State is somewhere near Georgia State or a little bit better even. how do Reinhardt and POINT (NAIA) match up with Virginia Tech? VT ain't great but they beat Old Dominion in FBS they are 77 points better than any NAIA team !

quite simply 40% of Furman opponents have been FBS w 85 scholarships. 40% of KSU opponents were NAIA - not even NCAA !

just a little odd in SOS as some others noted

[ElCid]

Superman, first, you do a GREAT job!!! I don't know how you get the time for everything you do.

I do get the SOS questions from some posters though. NOT being pro-Furman but just as an example we have played Virginia Tech AND Georgia State (TWO FBS teams) and, here is the comparison - Kennesaw State has played TWO NAIA teams !!! Not even D2 level but rather two NAIA teams! and the SOS is 64 vs 66 for Furman vs KSU?? No offense to KSU on that - it's just a SOS example I can't figure. I can't see how two (granted, poor but still..) FBS teams on one schedule can equal the TWO NAIA teams of POINT and REINHARDT? I do see KSU played Kent State. OK, I grant that as I am trying to be objective. Say that Kent State is somewhere near Georgia State or a little bit better even. how do Reinhardt and POINT (NAIA) match up with Virginia Tech? VT ain't great but they beat Old Dominion in FBS they are 77 points better than any NAIA team !

quite simply 40% of Furman opponents have been FBS w 85 scholarships. 40% of KSU opponents were NAIA - not even NCAA !

just a little odd in SOS as some others noted

Not certain what he is using, and I have mentioned it before, Sagarin does not account for any lower division SOS calculation. It's like they the games never happened. After week one you can see this because any school who played a lower div game had an SOS rating of 0.00. Massey, however, does account for all games regardless of division. That is why I only use Massey when it comes to SOS comparisons.

[Serpentor]

Nicholls is worth about 5 pennies at this point..... overrated

Took me a second to get that one. Derp.

[Professor Chaos]

Current SOS rating is 115th in the country. They're going to need to beat the top Southland teams before most of us entertain voting for them.

Their opponents season to date have a combined 2-19 record. You've got to be kidding me right? Anyone voting for them should have their voting privileges revoked. LOOK PAST THE RECORD!
I don't have them in my top 25 but I certainly think you're over-reacting to their SOS. I don't blame them for their OOC schedule, they lost something like 19 straight games to FCS teams coming into the year. Besides, I bet you there's at least a couple teams you have ranked #21-#25 that I could argue HBU over.

[BEAR]

UCA has had an SOS of 21 so far and have flown nearly 10,000 miles and still are 3-1? Next up #15 Nicholls at their place.

What does a home home game look like?!

[McCowboys]

UCA has had an SOS of 21 so far and have flown nearly 10,000 miles and still are 3-1? Next up #15 Nicholls at their place.

What does a home home game look like?!

I wonder if some voters take that in to consideration or not. I certainly give props to road victories. Whoever made your schedule should be "strongly chastised." Maybe it will mean lots of home games next year?

[Professor Chaos]

UCA has had an SOS of 21 so far and have flown nearly 10,000 miles and still are 3-1? Next up #15 Nicholls at their place.

What does a home home game look like?!
Don't ask Nicholls (or expect sympathy from them). They're about to play their home opener in week 6.


I wonder if some voters take that in to consideration or not. I certainly give props to road victories. Whoever made your schedule should be "strongly chastised." Maybe it will mean lots of home games next year?
This seems to be a bigger problem for teams that play multiple FBS games. On a related note, Austin Peay got some flack for scheduling 3 FBS games back in 2017 when the selection committee chairman made note of it when specifying why APSU wasn't selected as an at-large team in the playoffs. This year Austin Peay is playing a full 12 game FCS only schedule.

[BEAR]

Don't ask Nicholls (or expect sympathy from them). They're about to play their home opener in week 6.


This seems to be a bigger problem for teams that play multiple FBS games. On a related note, Austin Peay got some flack for scheduling 3 FBS games back in 2017 when the selection committee chairman made note of it when specifying why APSU wasn't selected as an at-large team in the playoffs. This year Austin Peay is playing a full 12 game FCS only schedule.

Nicholls’ first home game is this week? That’s ridiculous. Someone needs to be fired.

[McCowboys]

Nicholls’ first home game is this week? That’s ridiculous. Someone needs to be fired.

Another disturbing thing is that Nicholls's open date was the second week of the season, and so they have traveled for every game and do not have a break for the rest of the season. Simply firing the schedule maker doesn't seem punishment enough for this sadist!

[Hood]

In 03 (the year where all wins were vacated for the academic scandal) we opened at home against an NAIA and then proceeded to travel to South Florida, Portland State, and D2 Texas A&M Kingsville in consecutive weeks. That AD no longer works for the university.

We've also had the occasional four home game season in the past.

At least for 2019 3/4 of these games were just next door in Texas. The local paper indicated that the university tried to get an earlier home game or break up some of this, but none of our opposition had wiggle room to accomodate.

[ElCid]

Another disturbing thing is that Nicholls's open date was the second week of the season, and so they have traveled for every game and do not have a break for the rest of the season. Simply firing the schedule maker doesn't seem punishment enough for this sadist!

It's like musical chairs and they got caught looking when it came to filling the schedule out.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I wonder if some voters take that in to consideration or not. I certainly give props to road victories. Whoever made your schedule should be "strongly chastised." Maybe it will mean lots of home games next year?

I do, road wins mean a lot to me. I know UC Davis only has like 5 home games in a 12 game season which is sort of mind boggling as well when you are trying to really set yourself up well for the playoffs.

[McCowboys]

I do, road wins mean a lot to me. I know UC Davis only has like 5 home games in a 12 game season which is sort of mind boggling as well when you are trying to really set yourself up well for the playoffs.

That is why it is even more important to protect your home field, unlike yesterday. Blow out! (I haven't watched it. I am only going by the score. I have it on DVR, though.)

[Serpentor]

Nicholls’ first home game is this week? That’s ridiculous. Someone needs to be fired.

The universe punishing them for getting all that Last Chance U buzz?

[Cocky]

Can someone help me with the ranking order of SLU, APSU, JSU, EWU, UND, and SHSU?

I know not all of them should be ranked but what order should they go in?

How did SLU get in this group? The others are not very good teams. But if I have to, AP, JSU, EWU, UND and SHSU.

[kalm]

I do, road wins mean a lot to me. I know UC Davis only has like 5 home games in a 12 game season which is sort of mind boggling as well when you are trying to really set yourself up well for the playoffs.

You mean some teams actually get 6 home games in a season?

Wow!

[MR. CHICKEN]

Another disturbing thing is that Nicholls's open date was the second week of the season, and so they have traveled for every game and do not have a break for the rest of the season. Simply firing the schedule maker doesn't seem punishment enough for this sadist!

.....AH SUGGESTED...UH CURE TA PREVENT DIS......YEAR O' TWO AGO.............HAVE HALF YER CONFERENCE GO ON HIATIS.....SAY WEEK 5.....OTHERAH HALF 6........THERE ARE TEAMS WHO HAVE BYE WEEK IN WEEK 1....OR LAST WEEK UH REGULAR SEASON.....TOTALLY UNFAIR...BRAWK!

[Professor Chaos]

.....AH SUGGESTED...UH CURE TA PREVENT DIS......YEAR O' TWO AGO.............HAVE HALF YER CONFERENCE GO ON HIATIS.....SAY WEEK 5.....OTHERAH HALF 6........THERE ARE TEAMS WHO HAVE BYE WEEK IN WEEK 1....OR LAST WEEK UH REGULAR SEASON.....TOTALLY UNFAIR...BRAWK!
That's also a problem with conferences that have an odd number of teams like the SLC and OVC (the Big Sky and MVFC will join them next year with UND's move). It means that someone has to be on bye every week of the conference season and it's tough to get non-conference games scheduled in October/November because most everyone else has a full conference schedule to worry about then.

[MR. CHICKEN]

........ERR........UMMM........EH.........OK...... ........LIVE WIT IT.........AWK!

[BEAR]

I've been mad that we've had ONE home game between August 30th and October 12th and we've flown nearly 10,000 miles. Nicholls not having a home game until October 5th.... so unfair to their paying fanbase. I thought college football was about the students getting to be part of something in the Fall. You know, bring a little unity to the campus and make memories etc...

As soon as the on field action was determined by the sponsors halting it every two minutes to get in a commercial I knew it would ruin the atmosphere. I get schools need money for the game but teams get 3 time outs a half...make the sponsors wait until or if one of those are taken. AS for road games and paycheck games...c'mon....no wonder people stay home.

[Redbird 4th & short]

That's also a problem with conferences that have an odd number of teams like the SLC and OVC (the Big Sky and MVFC will join them next year with UND's move). It means that someone has to be on bye every week of the conference season and it's tough to get non-conference games scheduled in October/November because most everyone else has a full conference schedule to worry about then.

oh right .. good point, and yet another reason I wish we either stayed at 9 teams ... or even the current 10 teams based on above point. I like playing everyone once .. period, no exceptions. Next year, we have to deal with conference season bye week and not playing 2 teams each year.

Since we're not going back to 9 or 10, let's just add 12th team fast and go to two divisions ... if expansion is inevitable. That at least has bit more structure to the scheduling inequities. Not a fan of how Big Sky and Colonial conference scheduling plays out so unevenly for some teams. Most people including pollsters don't notice when a Maine plays only 2 of the other top 5 Colonial teams in 2018 ... they assume every team plays most of the other top teams.

Back to MVFC possibility of going to 12 teams and 2 divisions .. would be very interesting debate on whether we get 2 auto bids or not ...

[Hammersmith]

Not certain what he is using, and I have mentioned it before, Sagarin does not account for any lower division SOS calculation. It's like they the games never happened. After week one you can see this because any school who played a lower div game had an SOS rating of 0.00. Massey, however, does account for all games regardless of division. That is why I only use Massey when it comes to SOS comparisons.

This is actually why I prefer Sagarin over Massey. While it's true that Massey includes non-DI games, both Sagarin and Massey agree that there are not enough cross divisional games to allow their systems to predict accurate results. There are barely enough FBS/FCS crossover games for the models, and there are probably ten times as many of those as FCS/DII or FCS/NAIA. (It's also why I take the Ivy and HBCU computer ratings with a bit of salt; not enough data points with the rest of FCS.)

So you have a choice as a computer modeler: Use inaccurate data in your models, or exclude it altogether. Massey chooses to use it, Sagarin chooses to exclude it(or at least minimize it by setting all non-DI games to a base value as a hypothetical worst DI team). Personally, I like Sagarin's choice better.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

A little over a 1/2 hr. left to get your vote in so get it in if you have not yet.

[Professor Chaos]

oh right .. good point, and yet another reason I wish we either stayed at 9 teams ... or even the current 10 teams based on above point. I like playing everyone once .. period, no exceptions. Next year, we have to deal with conference season bye week and not playing 2 teams each year.

Since we're not going back to 9 or 10, let's just add 12th team fast and go to two divisions ... if expansion is inevitable. That at least has bit more structure to the scheduling inequities. Not a fan of how Big Sky and Colonial conference scheduling plays out so unevenly for some teams. Most people including pollsters don't notice when a Maine plays only 2 of the other top 5 Colonial teams in 2018 ... they assume every team plays most of the other top teams.

Back to MVFC possibility of going to 12 teams and 2 divisions .. would be very interesting debate on whether we get 2 auto bids or not ...
Seems pretty unlikely (or maybe it's just not possible) for the NCAA to grant two autobids to the same conference. If they don't there's really no reason to go to divisions in a 12 team conference since there isn't time for a title game with the current playoff format. The CAA is currently 12 teams and they don't have divisions.

Of course we could drag the old Summit vs Missouri Valley football dead horse out and beat on that. Who knows, if they get a 12th football team (like say Northern Colorado) to join the Summit/MVFC maybe the MVFC can have an "amicable breakup" where they split off 6 and 6 (with YSU being an affiliate with the MVC schools) and then have some kind of scheduling alliance between the two leagues where the conferences schedule 3 OOC games each year for each team with schools from the other conference. 5 true conference games, 3 OOC/old conference games, and 3-4 true OOC games like they have now.

[Lorne_Malvo]

A little over a 1/2 hr. left to get your vote in so get it in if you have not yet.

I vote for Trump. ;)

[caribbeanhen]

Took me a second to get that one. Derp.

well ain't that the pot calling the kettle black..... derp? what the heck does that mean.....

[centennial]

Man I need to set an alarm. My sister has a new baby and her husband has a crazy with schedule. So she's been at my house quite a bit. Messed up second week in a row. :(

[Derby City Duke]

oh right .. good point, and yet another reason I wish we either stayed at 9 teams ... or even the current 10 teams based on above point. I like playing everyone once .. period, no exceptions. Next year, we have to deal with conference season bye week and not playing 2 teams each year.

Since we're not going back to 9 or 10, let's just add 12th team fast and go to two divisions ... if expansion is inevitable. That at least has bit more structure to the scheduling inequities. Not a fan of how Big Sky and Colonial conference scheduling plays out so unevenly for some teams. Most people including pollsters don't notice when a Maine plays only 2 of the other top 5 Colonial teams in 2018 ... they assume every team plays most of the other top teams.

Back to MVFC possibility of going to 12 teams and 2 divisions .. would be very interesting debate on whether we get 2 auto bids or not ...

Having divisions has its own issues. When the Atlantic 10 (forerunner to the CAA) had 12 teams they had North and South divisions. Each team played the other 5 teams in their division every year and 3 of the 6 from the other division. Still have the same problems with teams having an advantageous schedule, depending on who they don't play in a given year.

Would love for all conferences to go back to 9 members and play an 8-game conference schedule...know that's a pipe dream, but sometimes wishes do come true.

[smilo]

Having divisions has its own issues. When the Atlantic 10 (forerunner to the CAA) had 12 teams they had North and South divisions. Each team played the other 5 teams in their division every year and 3 of the 6 from the other division. Still have the same problems with teams having an advantageous schedule, depending on who they don't play in a given year.

Would love for all conferences to go back to 9 members and play an 8-game conference schedule...know that's a pipe dream, but sometimes wishes do come true.

It's hard to get worse than the current CAA scheduling. Villanova went from 2014-2017 (Four full seasons!) without playing New Hampshire, who should theoretically be our second or maybe third biggest rival in the conference! That was horrendous! The guarantee of playing a conference foe every other year is not traditional, but it's better than the current state of the 12 team league. There are ways to get reasonable competitive balance based on historical performance so you don't load up every other year.

The problem with doing this in the current Colonial is that it involves splitting up Villanova and Delaware, which can't happen. If JMU ever leaves, you need to get a northern team to move Villanova into the South.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I vote for Trump. ;)

Not of the FCS board you don't.

[Serpentor]

That's also a problem with conferences that have an odd number of teams like the SLC and OVC (the Big Sky and MVFC will join them next year with UND's move). It means that someone has to be on bye every week of the conference season and it's tough to get non-conference games scheduled in October/November because most everyone else has a full conference schedule to worry about then.

Last year the Bearkats got their bye week to start the season. We played 11 weekends in a row after that. That's insane.

[Serpentor]

Not of the FCS board you don't.

Did Biden stake his claim here?