Big Sky Predictions - Week 5

[mvemjsunpx]

NoDak 27-35 EWU — Was Eastern's second-half rally in Moscow a good sign, or just last throes?

Montana 31-45 Davis — Both teams have strong passing attacks, but Davis has the better pass D

Portland St. 31-35 Idaho St. — The "Clarity is Needed" Game of the Week

Cal Poly 35-28 Suutah — The T-Birds are 1/7 on field goals this season xeyebrowx

NAU 27-38 Montana St. — Case Cookus has been on fire so far, but his defense sucked against ISU(r)

Idaho 27-17 NoCo — I'm not sure about Idaho, but I am sure about Northern Colorado

Yunie 14-23 Weber — Northern Iowa's temporary Big Sky membership finally expires this week

[bonarae]

EWU
UC Davis
Portland State (tossup)
Cal Poly
Montana State
Idaho
Weber State

[JALMOND]

I went through most of the non-conference (still some NC games left on the docket) and came out at 42-4, each week missing one. Here is my attempt at perfection this week in the conference.

CP at SUU---The Mustangs had two weeks to prepare for the conference slate and they start on the road. The Thunder birds probably wish they would have had two weeks to prepare, especially after last week...CP 31, SUU 14.

North Dakota at EWU---The Eagles need to find some way to at least hold the opposition in check so that the offense can somehow win these games. Their first "conference" game is not easy but at least it is at home...EWU 38, North Dakota 35.

UI at UNC---The Vandals have come a long way in a short time and looked great last week. The Bears, however, could not win a game when they were practically handed it to them. Road team win here...UI 17, UNC 10.

UM at UCD---A great conference matchup to start. The Grizzlies who are historically near the top every year and the newcomer Aggies looking to make a name for themselves. Great way to start the season...UCD 31, UM 21.

NAU at MSU---As long as the defense can hold the opponents down and give their potent offense a chance, the Lumberjacks will have a shot. The Bobcats, however, have got things rolling at a good time...MSU 28, NAU 14.

PSU at ISU---Past history would indicate a shootout here, but the Vikings defense has held good teams down and gave their offense a chance, while the Bengals defense is trying to do the same. Do they find an offense here?...PSU 28, ISU 20.

Northern Iowa at WSU---Northern Iowa completes their sojourn through the Big Sky with this trip to meet the Wildcats. Have their previous two Big Sky contests prepared them for that strong Wildcat defense?...WSU 21, Northern Iowa 17.

[SUPharmacist]

Eastern Washington
UC Davis
Portland State
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Colorado
Northern Iowa

[wapiti]

CP 27 at SUU 21---CP has a fair chance at a conference road win. Especially with SUU's fieldgoal woes.

North Dakota 32 at 35 EWU---EWU defense is suspect. UND has started out decent, but this game is in Cheney and thus I pick home field to give the edge to EWU

UI 27 at 17 UNC---Which Idaho teams shows up? The one from its first two games or the one the beat EWU and gave Wyoming all it could handle? It may not matter UNC has been awful.

UM 24 at 32 UCD---Game of week. Both teams have been playing well and are ranked. This game could come down to which team makes fewer mistakes. So I will go with the home field advantage.

NAU 31 at 38 MSU---This will be a good game for both teams. Cookus has the ability to keep NAU in this, but MSU has the better D and may have a decent QB that can throw accurate. Plus MSU has a good run game and this is in Bozeman (There may be snow at this game.)

PSU 28 at 24 ISU---ISU gave UNI a close game in Iowa and PSU has thumped 2 lower div teams and was beat by two FBS teams. This game should give us a good indicator for both of these teams. The winner should have a good chance to move up the rankings.

Northern Iowa 14 at 17 WSU---The BBQ gave two FBS teams all they could handle and UNI gave a FBS all it could handle too. This has the making of a good ol'fashioned slobber knocker. 2 good defenses going at it.

[kab]

CP
UND
UCD
MSU
ISU
WSU, UNI loses but will magically go up in the polls with a quality loss

[CopperCat]

CP by 6
UND by a field goal
UCD by 5
MSU by 15
ISU by 7
WSU by 7

[MSUBobcat]

NAU @ MSU - Bobcats' D-Line, anchored by Sterk, should frustrate Cookus and the weather appears to favor running vs. passing. MSU is 11th in FCS with 258.8 ypg, NAU is 103rd with only 92.3 ypg.
Idaho @ NoCo - USD was the Bears best shot at a W in 2019 and it passed by the wayside.
UM @ UC Davis - Only 6 teams in all of FCS have a worse defensive passing ypg?!?!? That spells BIG trouble against Maier.
UND @ EWU - perhaps the most competitive game of the weekend; predicted UND by 3 in the game poll thread and in the Pick 'Em. No reason to change now.
PSU @ ISU-o - not sure about either team due to their scheduling up and down. I was impressed by the Bengals performance in Cedar Falls and they're at home, so they get the edge.
UNI @ WSU - BBQ has a tough defense and the weather forecast (cold, rainy T-storms) looks to favor the defense in this one.
Cal Poly @ SUU - T-birds have not allowed less than 34 points in any game this year, and that's against conventional offenses. I think Poly's option confuses the hell out of them.

[wapiti]

CP by 6
UND by a field goal
UCD by 5
MSU by 15
ISU by 7
WSU by 7

Do you have a pick for the Idaho at Northern Colorado game?

[MSUBobcat]

Do you have a pick for the Idaho at Northern Colorado game?

Isn't that like a gimme putt in golf???

[Russ B]

A tap-in putt counts the same as a 50-footer. ;)

[mvemjsunpx]

UND @ EWU
Spread - Eagles by 7.5
Sagarin - Eagles by 7
Massey - Eagles by 11

UMT @ UCD
Spread - Aggies by 7
Sagarin - Aggies by 3
Massey - Aggies by 7

PSU @ ISU
Spread - Bengals by 4
Sagarin - Bengals by 6
Massey - Bengals by 7

CP @ SUU
Spread - T-Birds by 1.5
Sagarin - 'Stangs by 5
Massey - 'Stangs by 5

NAU @ MSU
Spread - Bobcats by 12
Sagarin - Bobcats by 7
Massey - Bobcats by 12

IDA @ NOCO
Spread - Vandals by 9.5
Sagarin - Vandals by 11
Massey - Vandals by 15

UNI @ WEB
Spread - Wildcats by 2.5
Sagarin - Panthers by 2
Massey - Wildcats by 4

[CopperCat]

Do you have a pick for the Idaho at Northern Colorado game?
Good catch, I was four beers deep when I was making picks last night.
Vandals by 14.

[I Bleed Purple]

Too many picks for Weber.

I predict a loss now.

[FUGameBreaker]

UC Davis just got killed at home, now 3 loses, they better plummet in the polls

[fencer24]

UND @ EWU
Spread - Eagles by 7.5
Sagarin - Eagles by 7
Massey - Eagles by 11

UMT @ UCD
Spread - Aggies by 7
Sagarin - Aggies by 3
Massey - Aggies by 7

PSU @ ISU
Spread - Bengals by 4
Sagarin - Bengals by 6
Massey - Bengals by 7

CP @ SUU
Spread - T-Birds by 1.5
Sagarin - 'Stangs by 5
Massey - 'Stangs by 5

NAU @ MSU
Spread - Bobcats by 12
Sagarin - Bobcats by 7
Massey - Bobcats by 12

IDA @ NOCO
Spread - Vandals by 9.5
Sagarin - Vandals by 11
Massey - Vandals by 15

UNI @ WEB
Spread - Wildcats by 2.5
Sagarin - Panthers by 2
Massey - Wildcats by 4

Looks like Montana covered the spread.

[wapiti]

A tap-in putt counts the same as a 50-footer. ;)

The tap-in putt missed. UNC beat Idaho

[I Bleed Purple]

UC Davis just got killed at home, now 3 loses, they better plummet in the polls

Haven't watched any of their games this year, but I thought Doss was so good for them. Did he make the quarterback better than he is?

[uofmman1122]

UC Davis just got killed at home, now 3 loses, they better plummet in the polls
They get major respect and hardly drop (didn't drop at all in STATS) after losing close on the road to NDSU, but then they go back home and get torched by Montana and suddenly they're trash. lol

[CopperCat]

They get major respect and hardly drop (didn't drop at all in STATS) after losing close on the road to NDSU, but then they go back home and get torched by Montana and suddenly they're trash. lol

A 2-3 team with wins against a VERY weak Lehigh team and a mediocre San Diego squad is objectively not going to be in the top 15-20. UCD played well against NDSU, but laid an egg against a team they were favored to beat at home.

[Grizalltheway]

A 2-3 team with wins against a VERY weak Lehigh team and a mediocre San Diego squad is objectively not going to be in the top 15-20. UCD played well against NDSU, but laid an egg against a team they were favored to beat at home.
They got their asses kicked up and down the field by a better team. Rationalize it however you need to.xlolx

[uofmman1122]

A 2-3 team with wins against a VERY weak Lehigh team and a mediocre San Diego squad is objectively not going to be in the top 15-20. UCD played well against NDSU, but laid an egg against a team they were favored to beat at home.
Again, it's funny that how weak Lehigh and San Diego are only seems to matter now, as opposed to after last week's game. lol

[CopperCat]

Again, it's funny that how weak Lehigh and San Diego are only seems to matter now, as opposed to after last week's game. lol

Lehigh got their first win of the season today over Merrimak, 10-3......

[uofmman1122]

Lehigh got their first win of the season today over Merrimak, 10-3......
I can't believe this is so hard to understand. lol

Everyone last week: "UC Davis is legit. They may have had a rough performance against San Diego, and a blowout against a bad Lehigh team, but their close loss to Cal, and especially how they stayed close to NDSU and had a shot to win late on the road justifies putting them in the top 5. Bad teams don't look like that against the Bison."

Everyone now: "UC Davis is trash. Look how bad Lehigh and San Diego are. This is a team you should probably only have around #20 at best. They aren't the same team as last year, and it's been obvious all season."

[Grizalltheway]

I can't believe this is so hard to understand. lol

Everyone last week: "UC Davis is legit. They may have had a rough performance against San Diego, and a blowout against a bad Lehigh team, but their close loss to Cal, and especially how they stayed close to NDSU and had a shot to win late on the road justifies putting them in the top 5. Bad teams don't look like that against the Bison."

Everyone now: "UC Davis is trash. Look how bad Lehigh and San Diego are. This is a team you should probably only have around #20 at best. They aren't the same team as last year, and it's been obvious all season."

Bizon fans thought they wouldn't lose a game again this season. The Griz beat the **** out of a damn good team.

[Bisonoline]

Bizon fans thought they wouldn't lose a game again this season. The Griz beat the **** out of a damn good team.

Some Bizon fans.xthumbsupx

[Grizalltheway]

Some Bizon fans.xthumbsupx
Sure, but it was pretty widely accepted that Davis was a pretty well put together team after their showing in Fargo, and deservedly so. That's all we're trying to argue here.

[uofmman1122]

I'm not arguing that Davis shouldn't drop; they obviously will. I'm just saying you can't hold something against a team that's still true a week after you didn't.

If NDSU went down to Davis and shellacked them 45-20, it would be a respectable, but convincing loss for Davis, and pollsters probably wouldn't hit them too hard, but when Montana does it, the only explanation is that Davis suddenly isn't as good as we thought?

If last week's result affirmed UCD's spot in the top 5, maybe this week you should change your expectations on a quickly legit-looking Montana team, instead.

[JALMOND]

I went through most of the non-conference (still some NC games left on the docket) and came out at 42-4, each week missing one. Here is my attempt at perfection this week in the conference.

CP at SUU---The Mustangs had two weeks to prepare for the conference slate and they start on the road. The Thunder birds probably wish they would have had two weeks to prepare, especially after last week...CP 31, SUU 14.

North Dakota at EWU---The Eagles need to find some way to at least hold the opposition in check so that the offense can somehow win these games. Their first "conference" game is not easy but at least it is at home...EWU 38, North Dakota 35.

UI at UNC---The Vandals have come a long way in a short time and looked great last week. The Bears, however, could not win a game when they were practically handed it to them. Road team win here...UI 17, UNC 10.

UM at UCD---A great conference matchup to start. The Grizzlies who are historically near the top every year and the newcomer Aggies looking to make a name for themselves. Great way to start the season...UCD 31, UM 21.

NAU at MSU---As long as the defense can hold the opponents down and give their potent offense a chance, the Lumberjacks will have a shot. The Bobcats, however, have got things rolling at a good time...MSU 28, NAU 14.

PSU at ISU---Past history would indicate a shootout here, but the Vikings defense has held good teams down and gave their offense a chance, while the Bengals defense is trying to do the same. Do they find an offense here?...PSU 28, ISU 20.

Northern Iowa at WSU---Northern Iowa completes their sojourn through the Big Sky with this trip to meet the Wildcats. Have their previous two Big Sky contests prepared them for that strong Wildcat defense?...WSU 21, Northern Iowa 17.


4-3 this season, embarrassing for sure. Puts me at 46-7 for the season.

[veinup]

just have ucd and um swap spots in the poll

[Bohcat]

Definitely an impressive win for the griz. I was predicting the opposite.

[dewey]

Big win for Montana. Are the Grizzlies a top 5 team? I still think UC Davis is a very good team (top 20).

Great win for the Grizzlies. Is it a 2 team race for the Big Sky title? Weber and the Grizzlies?

Dewey

[100%GRIZ]

Big win for Montana. Are the Grizzlies a top 5 team? I still think UC Davis is a very good team (top 20).

Great win for the Grizzlies. Is it a 2 team race for the Big Sky title? Weber and the Grizzlies?

Dewey
EWU, Sac, & MSU will figure into things!

[MSUBobcat]

I'm not arguing that Davis shouldn't drop; they obviously will. I'm just saying you can't hold something against a team that's still true a week after you didn't.

If NDSU went down to Davis and shellacked them 45-20, it would be a respectable, but convincing loss for Davis, and pollsters probably wouldn't hit them too hard, but when Montana does it, the only explanation is that Davis suddenly isn't as good as we thought?

If last week's result affirmed UCD's spot in the top 5, maybe this week you should change your expectations on a quickly legit-looking Montana team, instead.

It's early. Things are still working themselves out. Griz are probably better than expected, Davis is probably not as good as expected, the Bison aren't quite as much a juggernaut. Seems pretty simple to me.

[cx500d]

It's early. Things are still working themselves out. Griz are probably better than expected, Davis is probably not as good as expected, the Bison aren't quite as much a juggernaut. Seems pretty simple to me.

That about sums it up


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[MSUBobcat]

Big win for Montana. Are the Grizzlies a top 5 team? I still think UC Davis is a very good team (top 20).

Great win for the Grizzlies. Is it a 2 team race for the Big Sky title? Weber and the Grizzlies?

Dewey

Ahem.... I believe we have a say in the matter. Even if we drop our toughest game remaining at Davis (which now doesn't seem quite as daunting), we still have the Brawl in Bozeman, which would give us the auto bid due to head to head tie breaker.

[I Bleed Purple]

Ahem.... I believe we have a say in the matter. Even if we drop our toughest game remaining at Davis (which now doesn't seem quite as daunting), we still have the Brawl in Bozeman, which would give us the auto bid due to head to head tie breaker.

You're saying MSU is guaranteed an auto bid with one conference loss?

[Catbooster]

Anyone who's feeling too confident about how the conference race will turn out based on the first week of conference games should look back at the games played. Idaho beats EWU and then loses to UNC, the Griz beat Davis in convincing fashion, etc. Who was making those predictions with confidence?

[Grizalltheway]

Anyone who's feeling too confident about how the conference race will turn out based on the first week of conference games should look back at the games played. Idaho beats EWU and then loses to UNC, the Griz beat Davis in convincing fashion, etc. Who was making those predictions with confidence?
Agreed. Still way too much season left and no one is a prohibitive favorite at this point.

[Peems]

Even after how impressive the Griz looked against UCD, these past 7 years have done a number on me, so I take everything now with a grain of salt. UCD really shot themselves in the foot yesterday especially with penalties early on in the game, looking at the stats they had 14(!) for 101 yds. The Griz looked very dominant but UCD just got going too little too late.

All that being said, I am very happy the Griz won and played a full complete football game against a tough team!

[MTfan4life]

Big win for Montana. Are the Grizzlies a top 5 team? I still think UC Davis is a very good team (top 20).

Great win for the Grizzlies. Is it a 2 team race for the Big Sky title? Weber and the Grizzlies?

Dewey

It's about an 8 team race right now. There are very few guaranteed wins on anybody's schedule.

[mvemjsunpx]

Even after how impressive the Griz looked against UCD, these past 7 years have done a number on me, so I take everything now with a grain of salt. UCD really shot themselves in the foot yesterday especially with penalties early on in the game, looking at the stats they had 14(!) for 101 yds. The Griz looked very dominant but UCD just got going too little too late.

All that being said, I am very happy the Griz won and played a full complete football game against a tough team!

My thoughts, too. The Griz were dialed in & focused, but Davis would've been crushed if they'd played like that in Fargo last week. They looked pretty listless from the start of the game up until it was 38-7.

As for the Big Sky race… I think Weber, UM, MSU, Davis, EWU, and Sac are all potential contenders. Weber's probably the best team, but EWU has a relatively easy schedule.

[MTfan4life]

My thoughts, too. The Griz were dialed in & focused, but Davis would've been crushed if they'd played like that in Fargo last week. They looked pretty listless from the start of the game up until it was 38-7.

As for the Big Sky race… I think Weber, UM, MSU, Davis, EWU, and Sac are all potential contenders. Weber's probably the best team, but EWU has a relatively easy schedule.

Sac State's schedule is brutal, though. They go to Bozeman, Moscow, Flagstaff, and SLO. They host Montana, Weber, EWU, and UC Davis. None of those games are even close to easy.

[mvemjsunpx]

Sac State's schedule is brutal, though. They go to Bozeman, Moscow, Flagstaff, and SLO. They host Montana, Weber, EWU, and UC Davis. None of those games are even close to easy.

That is true, aside from maybe Cal Poly anyway.

[BlueGoldAg]

Even after how impressive the Griz looked against UCD, these past 7 years have done a number on me, so I take everything now with a grain of salt. UCD really shot themselves in the foot yesterday especially with penalties early on in the game, looking at the stats they had 14(!) for 101 yds. The Griz looked very dominant but UCD just got going too little too late.

All that being said, I am very happy the Griz won and played a full complete football game against a tough team!

The Aggies embarrassed the Griz last year in their house and they did the same to the Aggies this year. Aggie HC, Dan Hawkins, was very complimentary about the Griz but was very disappointed with the Aggies overall. He was pretty creative in his post-game remarks in describing just how completely Montana dominated the Aggies by saying we were: "out-played, out-executed, out-coached, out-desired, out-energied and out-everythinged." The only "positive spin" he could say about the Aggie's performance was that "this would be a good lesson for the team."

[cats2506]

It the f@#$ing Big Sky
um looks good beating UCD, most impressed that they found a decent run game and a defense, don't know what to say about UCD, they didn't look like the same team from the week before.
Idaho must be bi-polar.
EWU is still a dangerous team offensively.
MSU still has lots of work to do but physically beats teams into submission
Weber seems to be as solid as anybody
SAC is putting up a surprisingly strong performances

Nobody is getting through this season unbeaten, even EWU with their soft schedule, conference autobid will be decided by some asinine tie-breaker (EWU @ UI can be used in the tie-breaker as a "common opponent")

[MSUBobcat]

You're saying MSU is guaranteed an auto bid with one conference loss?

No, not guaranteed. However, I think if a Big Sky team runs through conference play with only 1 loss, the head to head very likely will be the deciding factor, i.e. I don't see an unbeaten this year, conference is too strong. Weber has a tough slate, but assuming their one loss would be against the Griz, and the Griz manage to run the table undefeated until the Brawl, I believe MSU wins due to head to head record among the 3 teams with one loss. Weber would be 0-1, the Griz would be 1-1 and MSU would be 1-0 (stupid unbalanced schedule). This hypothetical involves Weber beating Davis, giving them 2 conference losses and out of the running, and both WSU and EWU losing to UM.

Edit: Just noticed that UND was a conference game for EWU, but Idaho was not?? Not sure I understand how a team that doesn't appear on the conference website's standings counts as a conference game for the opponents, but that appears to be the case. Still... if EWU finishes with just a loss to the Griz, MSU would still win the auto-bid among the 4 teams with 1 conference loss because like Weber, they would be 0-1 and the Griz would move to 2-1, but MSU would still be 1-0. Davis beating Weber AND MSU or the Eags pulling an upset in Wa-Griz would really muddy the waters. Still lots of football. My only point was that a loss to Davis the week before the Brawl could very likely not affect MSU's ability to control its own destiny.

[MSUBobcat]

Sac State's schedule is brutal, though. They go to Bozeman, Moscow, Flagstaff, and SLO. They host Montana, Weber, EWU, and UC Davis. None of those games are even close to easy.

Agreed. Sac State has looked tough with respectable close FBS losses and boat racing UNC (who somehow beat Idaho, who somehow beat EWU xrotatehx), but their remaining schedule is ridiculous. The next 3 weeks will be telling and if they somehow are still in the running for the auto-bid by that last game against Davis, that would be one SCARY team.

[Silenoz]

um looks good

That's a first


Big win for Montana. Are the Grizzlies a top 5 team? I still think UC Davis is a very good team (top 20).

Great win for the Grizzlies. Is it a 2 team race for the Big Sky title? Weber and the Grizzlies?

Dewey

MSU will be in it, if not win it. They still have a terrible passing game, but they're grinding teams down with a relentless run game. Very Bison-like.

[catbob]

Maybe UCD suffered a "Bison Hangover", like the Griz always said happened to teams they beat the next game they played. xlolx Heard this for years and years.

[Silenoz]

Maybe UCD suffered a "Bison Hangover", like the Griz always said happened to teams they beat the next game they played. xlolx Heard this for years and years.
Indeed Bison fans claimed this. People always want to make everything revolve around themselves.

[JALMOND]

Maybe UCD suffered a "Bison Hangover", like the Griz always said happened to teams they beat the next game they played. xlolx Heard this for years and years.


Davis evidently thought they were better than they were and you can't do that against a team like the Griz. I was surprised it would happen to a Hawkins coached team but I guess it happens to the best of them. You can't sleepwalk through any conference games. If the Griz come in this weekend and think they have their game won (much like Davis thought), Idaho State is capable of beating them, even in Missoula.

[Grizalltheway]

Davis evidently thought they were better than they were and you can't do that against a team like the Griz. I was surprised it would happen to a Hawkins coached team but I guess it happens to the best of them. You can't sleepwalk through any conference games. If the Griz come in this weekend and think they have their game won (much like Davis thought), Idaho State is capable of beating them, even in Missoula.
I don't see that happening with this team after all of the meltdowns last season. Any games they lose from here on out, I think it will be because a better team beat them.

[Silenoz]

If the Griz come in this weekend and think they have their game won (much like Davis thought), Idaho State is capable of beating them, even in Missoula.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VomBuudIDsM