AGS Poll Results - WEEK 4 - 2019 SEASON

[AGSPoll]

9/23/2019



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
North Dakota State Bison
2237
83


2
James Madison Dukes
2137
4


3
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2079
3


4
UC Davis Aggies
1851



5
Northern Iowa Panthers
1683



6
Weber State Wildcats
1670



7
Villanova Wildcats
1507



8
Montana State Bobcats
1502



9
Towson Tigers
1364



10
Furman Paladins
1333



11
Kennesaw State Owls
1297



12
Central Arkansas Bears
1283



13
Illinois State Redbirds
1245



14
Maine Black Bears
1017



15
Nicholls State Colonels
965



16T
Montana Grizzlies
953



16T
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
953



18
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
788



19
Youngstown State Penguins
711



20
North Carolina A&T Aggies
576



21
Elon Phoenix
337



22
The Citadel Bulldogs
321



23
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
308



24
Princeton Tigers
226



25
Eastern Washington Eagles
211
















ORV:




26
Stony Brook Seawolves
178



27
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
108



28
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
65



29
Dartmouth Big Green
48



30
Idaho Vandals
41



31
Yale Bulldogs
36



32
Abilene Christian Wildcats
32



33T
Sac State Hornets
31



33T
Southern Illinois Salukis
31



35
South Carolina State Bulldogs
29



36
Indiana State Sycamores
24



37
Houston Baptist Huskies
14



38
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils
12



39
Idaho State Bengals
10



40
Sam Houston State Bearkats
9
















Most Significant Win:

Villanova Wildcats



Most Significant Loss:

Eastern Washington Eagles





















- - - Updated - - -

https://i.imgur.com/H0dDtQI.png

[FUGameBreaker]

Poll looks good

Thanks for voting for the Paladins xthumbsupx

[Professor Chaos]

Here's this weeks poll article: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-4-top-25-results-2/

My thoughts:

How is EWU still hanging around? They're 1-3 with that one win being against a sub-D1 team where they gave up 31 points (the most that team has scored so far this year). Preseason expectations can only carry them so far so I'm surprised to see it still carrying them into the top 25 with 0 D1 wins as we head to week 5.
JSU still in front of SELA???
This is Furman's highest ranking in the AGS poll since week 1 of 2007.
Congrats to Houston Baptist for getting what I'm pretty sure is their first votes in the AGS Poll ever... quite an impressive turnaround for them to start the season this year.

[Professor Chaos]

Here was mine:

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Furman Paladins
6: Northern Iowa Panthers
7: Weber State Wildcats
8: Montana State Bobcats
9: Villanova Wildcats
10: Kennesaw State Owls
11: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
12: Towson Tigers
13: Illinois State Redbirds
14: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
15: Youngstown State Penguins
16: Montana Grizzlies
17: Central Arkansas Bears
18: Princeton Tigers
19: Nicholls State Colonels
20: Maine Black Bears
21: North Carolina A&T Aggies
22: Elon Phoenix
23: The Citadel Bulldogs
24: Delaware Fightin Blue Hens
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

Yes I know I have 500 CAA teams in there but I had to search and settle on those last two for #24 and #25 since I didn't feel good about putting anyone there.

[JSUSoutherner]

JSU still in front of SELA???

This is purely bad/lazy voting.

There is no excuse for this nor has their been at any point in the season.

People were saying last week "oh but JSU beat Eastern Washington"

Guess what, EWU sucks.

[clenz]

This is purely bad/lazy voting.

There is no excuse for this nor has their been at any point in the season.

People were saying last week "oh but JSU beat Eastern Washington"

Guess what, EWU sucks.
I would agree with this in general terms

Team A beats Team B and Team B is a name team

Team B sucks something fierce...but still a name team

Thus team A still gets a big bump from beating Team B


What is real interesting about that is SLU isn't getting the same continued bump from beating JSU. In fact they are getting punished, in a round about way, for JSU looking so much worse than people thought in that game.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 9/22/2019 10:01:52

Your vote is listed below (previous rank in parentheses).

1: North Dakota State Bison (1)
2: James Madison Dukes (2)
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits (3)
4: UC Davis Aggies (7)
5: Weber State Wildcats (5)
6: Northern Iowa Panthers (6)
7: Villanova Wildcats (21)
8: Furman Paladins (10)
9: Southeastern Louisiana Lions (13)
10: Illinois State Redbirds (12)
11: Towson Tigers (4)
12: Central Arkansas Bears (14)
13: Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8)
14: Maine Black Bears (11)
15: Montana State Bobcats (15)
16: North Carolina A&T Aggies (16)
17: Kennesaw State Owls (17)
18: Elon Phoenix (18)
19: Montana Grizzlies (20)
20: Youngstown State Penguins (19)
21: The Citadel Bulldogs (25)
22: Indiana State Sycamores (23)
23: Idaho Vandals (NR)
24: Eastern Washington Eagles (9)
25: Abilene Christian Wildcats (NR)

The most significant win: Villanova Wildcats
The most significant loss: Eastern Washington Eagles
Which conference does your team play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

Dropped from poll: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (22), Nicholls State Colonels (24)

[Preferred Walk-On]

I would agree with this in general terms

Team A beats Team B and Team B is a name team

Team B sucks something fierce...but still a name team

Thus team A still gets a big bump from beating Team B


What is real interesting about that is SLU isn't getting the same continued bump from beating JSU. In fact they are getting punished, in a round about way, for JSU looking so much worse than people thought in that game.

Gave them the bump. :D

[Preferred Walk-On]

This is purely bad/lazy voting.

There is no excuse for this nor has their been at any point in the season.

People were saying last week "oh but JSU beat Eastern Washington"

Guess what, EWU sucks.

I think there was reasoning before; however, at this point, Southeastern Louisiana deserves to be above both.

[RootinFerDukes]

A pretty good poll overall, even if i think Villanova is too high, along with Jacksonville State. All others seem fair. I think UNI isn't really #5, but no one else is claiming that spot right now.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Idaho 170 points behind Eastern Washington? Why, because they are Idaho? xdontknowx

[clenz]

Idaho 170 points behind Eastern Washington? Why, because they are Idaho? xdontknowx
I wouldn't argue for Idaho getting votes right now.

But I wouldn't argue for EWU either.

[RootinFerDukes]

Idaho 170 points behind Eastern Washington? Why, because they are Idaho? xdontknowx

This is their first noteworthy win since joining FCS? EWU may also be overrated at this point? It more than makes sense to not rank them.

[SpreadTheWord]

Here's my poll:



1
North Dakota State


2
James Madison


3
Weber State


4
South Dakota State


5
UC Davis


6
Villanova


7
Towson


8
Furman


9
Northern Iowa


10
Montana State


11
Kennesaw State


12
Southeastern Louisiana


13
North Carolina A&T


14
The Citadel


15
Sacramento State


16
Jacksonville State


17
Illinois State


18
Montana


19
Elon


20
Youngstown State


21
Maine


22
Central Arkansas


23
Nicholls


24
Delaware


25
Princeton

[clenz]

A pretty good poll overall, even if i think Villanova is too high, along with Jacksonville State. All others seem fair. I think UNI isn't really #5, but no one else is claiming that spot right now.
UNI's defense is top 5 worthy.

It's up to the offense to figure something out to match it.

Weber/UNI could play out just like Idaho State/UNI game

6-3 going into the 4th.

Both teams have really damn good defenses. Both teams seem to be struggling to find anything on offense.

[Professor Chaos]

Idaho 170 points behind Eastern Washington? Why, because they are Idaho? xdontknowx
Well, Idaho has no equity to build on from last year and other than beating EWU they've done pretty much zilch so far this season. At this point I'm not sure how impressive beating EWU is??? If they right the ship in Cheney I may have to give Idaho some retroactive credit later in the season but as of now I don't think either team deserves votes.

[JMUNJ08]

1: James Madison Dukes
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: Villanova Wildcats
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Weber State Wildcats
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Montana State Bobcats
9: Illinois State Redbirds
10: Nicholls State Colonels
11: Towson Tigers
12: Central Arkansas Bears
13: Maine Black Bears
14: Kennesaw State Owls
15: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
16: Furman Paladins
17: Montana Grizzlies
18: North Carolina A&T Aggies
19: Youngstown State Penguins
20: The Citadel Bulldogs
21: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
22: Southern Illinois Salukis
23: Elon Phoenix
24: Stony Brook Seawolves
25: South Carolina State Bulldogs

JMUNJ08

The Most Significant Win: Villanova Wildcats
The Most Significant Loss: Eastern Washington Eagles
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Colonial Athletic Association


Should a rethought Jax St. a bit more with the EWU loss this week. The 'bump' I gave them last week should NOT have carried over so will have to take a harder look at that going forward.

[Professor Chaos]

A pretty good poll overall, even if i think Villanova is too high, along with Jacksonville State. All others seem fair. I think UNI isn't really #5, but no one else is claiming that spot right now.


UNI's defense is top 5 worthy.

It's up to the offense to figure something out to match it.

Weber/UNI could play out just like Idaho State/UNI game

6-3 going into the 4th.

Both teams have really damn good defenses. Both teams seem to be struggling to find anything on offense.
Is it the curse of #5?

Week 1 AGS #5 UC Davis barely squeaks out a win at San Diego.

Week 2 AGS #5 Maine gets trucked by Towson.

Week 3 AGS #5 Towson loses at home to Villanova.

Week 4 AGS #5 UNI is....


...at Weber St
https://media.giphy.com/media/kKdgdeuO2M08M/giphy.gif

[JSUSoutherner]

I think there was reasoning before; however, at this point, Southeastern Louisiana deserves to be above both.
SELA beat us by 3 TDs.

If there was reasoning before, it was really bad reasoning.

The only poll this season I've had JSU above SELA in is the preseason poll.

[clenz]

Is it the curse of #5?

Week 1 AGS #5 UC Davis barely squeaks out a win at San Diego.

Week 2 AGS #5 Maine gets trucked by Towson.

Week 3 AGS #5 Towson loses at home to Villanova.

Week 4 AGS #5 UNI is....


...at Weber St
https://media.giphy.com/media/kKdgdeuO2M08M/giphy.gif
#5 UC Davis moves down 1 spot to #6 and is back up at #4 one week later
#5 Towson loses and moves down 4

Given the last 10 years of voting history when it comes to UNI....

If UNI goes on the road and loses in similar fashion to Towson I bet UNI is punished harder than Maine was - and I live in a state where gambling is legal.


Also - should UNI win that game the easy come back is "Not a quality win. Weber is 1-3"

[Preferred Walk-On]

SELA beat us by 3 TDs.

If there was reasoning before, it was really bad reasoning.

The only poll this season I've had JSU above SELA in is the preseason poll.

The reasoning was no worse than The Citadel over Elon in any poll. Let it go.

[JALMOND]

Idaho 170 points behind Eastern Washington? Why, because they are Idaho? xdontknowx


For me, I use a rule of thumb that good teams will win conference games on the road, and bad teams will lose conference games at home, regardless of who the two teams are. EWU took a sizable nose dive in the poll, but if I were doing the poll, I would adopt a "wait and see" on Idaho, based on what they've done so far. Just my opinion.

[MSUBobcat]

#5 UC Davis moves down 1 spot to #6 and is back up at #4 one week later
#5 Towson loses and moves down 4

Given the last 10 years of voting history when it comes to UNI....

If UNI goes on the road and loses in similar fashion to Towson I bet UNI is punished harder than Maine was - and I live in a state where gambling is legal.


Also - should UNI win that game the easy come back is "Not a quality win. Weber is 1-3"

Some might say that, and without a real quality win so far, Weber is riding their "moral victories". But in my eyes, two 6 pt losses to 3-1 Nevada and 3-1 SDSU (the other one) are indications of a pretty good team, at least at this point in the season. A win in Ogden would be a quality win as of week 5, IMO. Then again, I'm not a poll participant this year so....

[BEAR]

Now that voting is over a quick note for reference for voters in next week's poll.

UCA is in a bye week this week. They are 3-1 with an FBS win, two OOC FCS wins, and an FBS loss to a team we held scoreless for nearly 3 quarters- just couldn't stop them initially. All that and we still can't get our offense going. xlolx

[clenz]

For me, I use a rule of thumb that good teams will win conference games on the road, and bad teams will lose conference games at home, regardless of who the two teams are. EWU took a sizable nose dive in the poll, but if I were doing the poll, I would adopt a "wait and see" on Idaho, based on what they've done so far. Just my opinion.
Wait and see is still WAAAAY too friendly

79-7 to Penn State - yeah B10 and whatever. That's bad. Could have been 100+ with ease
Were in a 3 point game with 1:36 left in the game against a D2
Jumped out to a 10-0 lead on Wyoming and got outscored 21 to 2 field goals after that.

Maybe they are getting better as the season goes on, but man EWU, outside of the first quarter against JSU has been real bad.

[JSUSoutherner]

The reasoning was no worse than The Citadel over Elon in any poll. Let it go.
The Citadel got the division's only P5 win to jump Elon.

JSU stuffed a team whose only win is EIU and had an epic come from behind win over a team that got absolutely bent by Idaho.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Well, Idaho has no equity to build on from last year and other than beating EWU they've done pretty much zilch so far this season. At this point I'm not sure how impressive beating EWU is??? If they right the ship in Cheney I may have to give Idaho some retroactive credit later in the season but as of now I don't think either team deserves votes.

I am sure this is the major factor (and I am guilty of still ranking the Eagles...barely). I am just saying that if you removed the team names and looked at the resume's thus far, one would be hard pressed to rank Eastern Washington significantly above Idaho, and I would not necessarily expect a 170 point difference. That said, it should not be surprising, as Jacksonville State is still 165 points above Southeastern Louisiana.

[Outsider1]

I wouldn't argue for Idaho getting votes right now.

But I wouldn't argue for EWU either.

Right now I left them both out on purpose until more data comes in. I can't vote in a 1-3 team; period. Idaho has a better argument than EWU, but I don't think better than others who can just as easily be at the bottom of our poll.

[IBleedYellow]

15: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
21: Southeastern Louisiana Lions

Explain please. Zero reason for this, IMO.


Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

[Outsider1]

#5 UC Davis moves down 1 spot to #6 and is back up at #4 one week later
#5 Towson loses and moves down 4

Given the last 10 years of voting history when it comes to UNI....

If UNI goes on the road and loses in similar fashion to Towson I bet UNI is punished harder than Maine was - and I live in a state where gambling is legal.


Also - should UNI win that game the easy come back is "Not a quality win. Weber is 1-3"

Well crap, I just I just contradicted myself...

[clenz]

Well crap, I just I just contradicted myself...
I mean, they aren't 1-3 yet - and maybe the won't be. I'm just setting the scene for already being able to see voters have their reasons to drop UNI.

"you lost to the one good team you faced so you get punished"

or

"You beat a 1-3 team. Big Deal. They aren't ranked so you don't get credit for it"

[JMUNJ08]

Explain please. Zero reason for this, IMO.


Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Already explained in my original post that it was a 'miss' as I needed to move them down after giving them high credit for the EWU win which lost its sparkle immediately. The rest of their schedule doesn't give them much of an opportunity to really move up much more, unless SELU becomes the Southland leader and thus a quality/ acceptable loss (even if lopsided).

SELU was not on my radar before the season so haven't moved them up too high yet. Need more than a bunch of FBS games to really get a read on them.

[Outsider1]

I mean, they aren't 1-3 yet - and maybe the won't be. I'm just setting the scene for already being able to see voters have their reasons to drop UNI.

"you lost to the one good team you faced so you get punished"

or

"You beat a 1-3 team. Big Deal. They aren't ranked so you don't get credit for it"


Correct, the UNI game will say a lot about Weber. A difference is that both UNI and Weber are highly ranked. Weber has the better SOS over EWU. I don't think I would punish UNI as much either because of the overall SOS. (I could be wrong)

I am mainly admitting that I am touting a thin line with Weber, but I am wanting more data. I think that if I don't punish them as bad as I did EWU it would also be the SOS issue. For now, I felt ok leaving BOTH Idaho and EWU out and I have no issue brining either back in based on more games. I hope that my thinking is consistent at least. I think you you are right questioning any of our consistencies. I don't have a long history in voting though.

[JALMOND]

Wait and see is still WAAAAY too friendly

79-7 to Penn State - yeah B10 and whatever. That's bad. Could have been 100+ with ease
Were in a 3 point game with 1:36 left in the game against a D2
Jumped out to a 10-0 lead on Wyoming and got outscored 21 to 2 field goals after that.

Maybe they are getting better as the season goes on, but man EWU, outside of the first quarter against JSU has been real bad.

There is all that, of course. Also, Idaho's win against EWU was at home. I can see why some people would not automatically place Idaho ahead of EWU (I would not). But, to each their own.

If the game would have been in Cheney and Idaho wins, it may be different. I still probably would not think of Idaho as Top 25 even then. But, nit picky. Good poll regardless.

[Daytripper]

Now that voting is over a quick note for reference for voters in next week's poll.

UCA is in a bye week this week. They are 3-1 with an FBS win, two OOC FCS wins, and an FBS loss to a team we held scoreless for nearly 3 quarters- just couldn't stop them initially. All that and we still can't get our offense going. xlolx

I have you guys as a top 5 team for the last three weeks.

[Mayville Bison]

My poll. Still not completely happy with it, but all but 3 teams are within 3 spots of AGS's consensus poll. I know I'm high on Montana at the moment, but they haven't really done anything to go against it yet. Similar to being low on Kennesaw - just unimpressed so they are getting passed by people with wins.



Rank
Team
Last Week



1
North Dakota State

2


2
James Madison
1


3
South Dakota State
3


4
UC Davis
6


5
Weber State
4


6
Montana State
7


7
Northern Iowa
8


8
Furman
9


9
Villanova
20


10
Montana
11


11
Towson
5


12
Maine
10


13
Nicholls State
12


14
Central Arkansas
13


15
SE Louisiana
14


16
Illinois State
16


17
NC A&T
19


18
Youngstown State
21


19
Jacksonville State
18


20
Kennesaw State
15


21
The Citadel
24


22
Elon
23


23
Delaware
25


24
Central Connecticut



25
North Dakota

[BEAR]

I have you guys as a top 5 team for the last three weeks.

I think we are a top 10 team...or close to it. Not a top 5 team though.

[nodak651]

Will the winner of UND - EWU game deserve to be ranked? Or if UND wins will the talking point be that its because EWU sucks now, and if EWU wins, it's because they beat a non ranked team at home?

[clenz]

Will the winner of UND - EWU game deserve to be ranked? Or if UND wins will the talking point be that its because EWU sucks now, and if EWU wins, it's because they beat a non ranked team at home?
Depends on the eye test.

I mean, it's a fine line that UND (or in my UNI example i gave) for the eye test.

UND comes in and crushes EWU and looks the part doing it? I'd see them moving into the ranked area
UND comes in and crushes EWU but it looked like the result of EWU being bad more than UND causing it? Well, maybe not.

EWU has a long way to go before I'll consider them again, even if they beat UND.

I dropped them 19 spots leading into the Idaho game.

Imagine what I did to them after that Idaho game

[Outsider1]

Will the winner of UND - EWU game deserve to be ranked? Or if UND wins will the talking point be that its because EWU sucks now, and if EWU wins, it's because they beat a non ranked team at home?

I think the decisions will be based on the other games a little as well....

[Daytripper]

I think we are a top 10 team...or close to it. Not a top 5 team though.

You let me be the judge of that... xthumbsupx

[clenz]

I think the decisions will be based on the other games a little as well....
Yup.

I say it all the time

Nothing happens in a vacuum.

[smilo]

Now that voting is over a quick note for reference for voters in next week's poll.

UCA is in a bye week this week. They are 3-1 with an FBS win, two OOC FCS wins, and an FBS loss to a team we held scoreless for nearly 3 quarters- just couldn't stop them initially. All that and we still can't get our offense going. xlolx

I love UCA, think they will still win the SLC and have them ranked higher than the aggregate (#11), but they are benefiting from from this being a results-based exercise rather than a predictive metric (as it should be at this stage!). The Hawaii loss is absolutely nothing to brag about. The FBS opponent got conservative after building a big lead and scored 14 | 14 | 0 | 7 across the four quarters. That's a tough reconciliation to what you just described. I'm sure some viewing of the game reconciles to what you said, but it seems like tilted thinking. It's a ok show against Hawaii. I'm sure not too many FCS teams would play well there!

The real fact of the matter is that none of their wins were pretty, and while they are quality wins, they haven't actually put away any team convincingly and even needed an incredible comeback in the FBS win. There is nothing to indicate that they won't drop at least one or two games against mediocre teams. I have a hard time believing a truer predictive metric like FPI for FCS would rank them any better than 20, maybe 25 in our subdivision.

The schedule is pretty nice, so take advantage of that bye week and prepare for your toughest game. I will be cheering for 'em every week. Just not very optimistic that luck won't run out with so many coin flips against middling competition.

Delaware strikes me as another team that I am (and everyone else is) rating higher than they really are - perhaps for slightly different reasons.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

There is all that, of course. Also, Idaho's win against EWU was at home. I can see why some people would not automatically place Idaho ahead of EWU (I would not). But, to each their own.

If the game would have been in Cheney and Idaho wins, it may be different. I still probably would not think of Idaho as Top 25 even then. But, nit picky. Good poll regardless.

I don't know if Idaho is really even close to a T25 team but the fact they could be getting close is good in my book. They should at least be getting on to people's watchlists at this time and being in the discussion. In two weeks they will have a good test but it might not look like one if Weber loses to UNI this weekednd.

[caribbeanhen]

Princeton would be favored over Delaware by 20 to 24 points

[Vandal03]

As a Vandal fan I have no problem with a voter who doesnÂ’t vote for Idaho and EWU. Any voter who votes for Eastern should also vote for Idaho with a higher ranking. Idaho looked better than Eastern and wanted to win the game more. Assuming Idaho takes care of business against Northern Colorado the Weber State game will a very important game for ranking and playoff consideration. Weber has a great team and Idaho matches up well against them.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yup.

I say it all the time

Nothing happens in a vacuum.

Oh yeah? Then why do I have to keep putting in new vacuum bags then?

[clenz]

Oh yeah? Then why do I have to keep putting in new vacuum bags then?
What is filling the bags?

Things from the outside.....


Check f-ing mate.

[BEAR]

I love UCA, think they will still win the SLC and have them ranked higher than the aggregate (#11), but they are benefiting from from this being a results-based exercise rather than a predictive metric (as it should be at this stage!). The Hawaii loss is absolutely nothing to brag about. The FBS opponent got conservative after building a big lead and scored 14 | 14 | 0 | 7 across the four quarters. That's a tough reconciliation to what you just described. I'm sure some viewing of the game reconciles to what you said, but it seems like tilted thinking. It's a ok show against Hawaii. I'm sure not too many FCS teams would play well there!

The real fact of the matter is that none of their wins were pretty, and while they are quality wins, they haven't actually put away any team convincingly and even needed an incredible comeback in the FBS win. There is nothing to indicate that they won't drop at least one or two games against mediocre teams. I have a hard time believing a truer predictive metric like FPI for FCS would rank them any better than 20, maybe 25 in our subdivision.

The schedule is pretty nice, so take advantage of that bye week and prepare for your toughest game. I will be cheering for 'em every week. Just not very optimistic that luck won't run out with so many coin flips against middling competition.

Delaware strikes me as another team that I am (and everyone else is) rating higher than they really are - perhaps for slightly different reasons.

I think we are getting better as the weeks go on. Hawaii was supposed to be a loss. They got a pick six on our first pass that was an ugly bounce to their guy. But after 8 minutes in the second quarter til 3 minutes left in the game, that same Hawaii team didn't score a point on us. Sure it's looking at it from purple colored glasses but fans are wondering what could have been because 12 minutes left in the fourth the score was 16-28 and we were driving after they fumbled it. Score there and its 23-28. After that our next possesion (after they scored with 3 minutes left) we got down to their 13 yard line. I really think those were two missed opportunites at the end of the game. I'm looking forward to the Nicholls game in two weeks. Super tough and a good measuring stick to see if our coaches have improved anything.

[polsongrizz]

Here's this weeks poll article: http://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-4-top-25-results-2/

My thoughts:

How is EWU still hanging around? They're 1-3 with that one win being against a sub-D1 team where they gave up 31 points (the most that team has scored so far this year). Preseason expectations can only carry them so far so I'm surprised to see it still carrying them into the top 25 with 0 D1 wins as we head to week 5.


Honestly, I don't see that as much as a problem as for those who kept voting for Princeton for three weeks straight when they hadn't even played a game until this weekend.

[mvemjsunpx]

(previous week in parentheses)


1. South Dakota St. (1)
2. James Madison (2)
3. North Dakota St. (3)
4. UC Davis (4)
5. Weber St. (5)
6. Northern Iowa (8)
7. Central Arkansas (9)
8. Villanova (NR)
9. Towson (6)
10. Montana St. (10)
11. Illinois St. (11)
12. Kennesaw St. (12)
13. Southeastern Louisiana (13)
14. Furman (18)
15. Nicholls St. (7)
16. Jacksonville St. (14)
17. Maine (16)
18. Yale (17)
19. North Dakota (19)
20. Abilene Christian (NR)
21. North Carolina A&T (20)
22. Elon (21)
23. Delaware (22)
24. Indiana St. (23)
25. Southeast Missouri St. (24)

W - Villanova
L - Eastern Washington


Dropped - Eastern Washington (15), Youngstown St. (25)

[ursus arctos horribilis]

What is filling the bags?

Things from the outside.....


Check f-ing mate.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?207935-FCS-Discussion-Thread-Drift-Diversion-Project&p=2804371&viewfull=1#post2804371

[Thundar]

(previous week in parentheses)


1. South Dakota St. (1)
2. James Madison (2)
3. North Dakota St. (3)
4. UC Davis (4)
5. Weber St. (5)
6. Northern Iowa (8)
7. Central Arkansas (9)
8. Villanova (NR)
9. Towson (6)
10. Montana St. (10)
11. Illinois St. (11)
12. Kennesaw St. (12)
13. Southeastern Louisiana (13)
14. Furman (18)
15. Nicholls St. (7)
16. Jacksonville St. (14)
17. Maine (16)
18. Yale (17)
19. North Dakota (19)
20. Abilene Christian (NR)
21. North Carolina A&T (20)
22. Elon (21)
23. Delaware (22)
24. Indiana St. (23)
25. Southeast Missouri St. (24)

W - Villanova
L - Eastern Washington


Dropped - Eastern Washington (15), Youngstown St. (25)


i don't understand the hype for SDSU you have in your poll??

they have played Long Island, Drake and SUU and got beat by MN??

[Professor Chaos]

Honestly, I don't see that as much as a problem as for those who kept voting for Princeton for three weeks straight when they hadn't even played a game until this weekend.
It's not an equivalent comparison IMO. Princeton didn't prove that they shouldn't be ranked (because they couldn't having not played) whereas EWU is doing their best to prove that they shouldn't be ranked based on the results on the field. I didn't move Princeton down much from my preseason poll since I treated it like they had 3 bye weeks to start the seasons and I don't punish teams for having byes normally. If you're going to drop Princeton from your preseason poll ballot because they didn't play in weeks 1-3 you shouldn't have had them in your preseason ballot to begin with.

[polsongrizz]

It's not an equivalent comparison IMO. Princeton didn't prove that they shouldn't be ranked (because they couldn't having not played) whereas EWU is doing their best to prove that they shouldn't be ranked based on the results on the field. I didn't move Princeton down much from my preseason poll since I treated it like they had 3 bye weeks to start the seasons and I don't punish teams for byes normally. If you're going to drop Princeton for your preseason poll ballot because they didn't play in weeks 1-3 you shouldn't have had them in your preseason ballot to begin with.
They were never in my preseason, or any other poll.

[Professor Chaos]

i don't understand the hype for SDSU you have in your poll??

they have played Long Island, Drake and SUU and got beat by MN??
Meanwhile NDSU has dominant wins over his #19 and #23 teams and just beat his #4 team while the two teams in front of them haven't even played a team listed in his top 25.


They were never in my preseason, or any other poll.
Fair enough. Then I'd agree that there's nothing they've done to this point that warrants they get added to it.

[MSUBobcat]

Fair enough. Then I'd agree that there's nothing they've done to this point that warrants they get added to it.

Not true. They beat that powerhouse Butler by only 5 points less than the Bison. Using my transitive property for dummies formula, Princeton should be in the 6-8 range.

[TheKingpin28]

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Villanova Wildcats
6: Towson Tigers
7: Weber State Wildcats
8: Northern Iowa Panthers
9: Montana State Bobcats
10: Kennesaw State Owls
11: Furman Paladins
12: Illinois State Redbirds
13: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
14: Nicholls State Colonels
15: Central Arkansas Bears
16: Maine Black Bears
17: Montana Grizzlies
18: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
19: North Carolina A&T Aggies
20: Youngstown State Penguins
21: Abilene Christian Wildcats
22: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
23: Elon Phoenix
24: The Citadel Bulldogs
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

[mvemjsunpx]

i don't understand the hype for SDSU you have in your poll??

they have played Long Island, Drake and SUU and got beat by MN??

I had them #1 to begin with.

[grizband]

I love UCA, think they will still win the SLC and have them ranked higher than the aggregate (#11), but they are benefiting from from this being a results-based exercise rather than a predictive metric (as it should be at this stage!). The Hawaii loss is absolutely nothing to brag about. The FBS opponent got conservative after building a big lead and scored 14 | 14 | 0 | 7 across the four quarters. That's a tough reconciliation to what you just described. I'm sure some viewing of the game reconciles to what you said, but it seems like tilted thinking. It's a ok show against Hawaii. I'm sure not too many FCS teams would play well there!

The real fact of the matter is that none of their wins were pretty, and while they are quality wins, they haven't actually put away any team convincingly and even needed an incredible comeback in the FBS win. There is nothing to indicate that they won't drop at least one or two games against mediocre teams. I have a hard time believing a truer predictive metric like FPI for FCS would rank them any better than 20, maybe 25 in our subdivision.

The schedule is pretty nice, so take advantage of that bye week and prepare for your toughest game. I will be cheering for 'em every week. Just not very optimistic that luck won't run out with so many coin flips against middling competition.

Delaware strikes me as another team that I am (and everyone else is) rating higher than they really are - perhaps for slightly different reasons.
I don't really ever use my poll as a predictive method. I simply try to rank teams where I believe this rank through the current week of the season.

[grizband]

(previous week in parentheses)


1. South Dakota St. (1)
2. James Madison (2)
3. North Dakota St. (3)
4. UC Davis (4)
5. Weber St. (5)
6. Northern Iowa (8)
7. Central Arkansas (9)
8. Villanova (NR)
9. Towson (6)
10. Montana St. (10)
11. Illinois St. (11)
12. Kennesaw St. (12)
13. Southeastern Louisiana (13)
14. Furman (18)
15. Nicholls St. (7)
16. Jacksonville St. (14)
17. Maine (16)
18. Yale (17)
19. North Dakota (19)
20. Abilene Christian (NR)
21. North Carolina A&T (20)
22. Elon (21)
23. Delaware (22)
24. Indiana St. (23)
25. Southeast Missouri St. (24)

W - Villanova
L - Eastern Washington


Dropped - Eastern Washington (15), Youngstown St. (25)
Villanova jumped from NR to number 8 in your poll? I'm also curious in the logic of not having Montana ranked, based on their current record and performances.

[smilo]

I don't really ever use my poll as a predictive method. I simply try to rank teams where I believe this rank through the current week of the season.

I agree, and I am doing the same. Just a bad gut feeling I've been having lately that UCA is probably not a top 10 team going forward.

[BEAR]

I don't really ever use my poll as a predictive method. I simply try to rank teams where I believe this rank through the current week of the season.

I don't try to predict how a team will play in later games. I'm not that good. My results in the national Pick'em pretty much proves that. But what I can see is UCA hasn't played that great yet we are 3-1 with wins against two OOC FCS and even have an FBS win. Imagine what we could do if we start playing good if we are using the argument that UCA isn't playing good. Can't wait to see that start to happen!

[mvemjsunpx]

Villanova jumped from NR to number 8 in your poll? I'm also curious in the logic of not having Montana ranked, based on their current record and performances.

Nova just had 3 lopsided wins over nobodies coming in. Now they have a road win over a definite somebody, which makes a huge difference. They've actually surprised me a bit—their offense looked like it was gonna be a total rebuild coming into the season.

I picked Montana to go 6-6, and nothing I've seen so far changes my mind on that (I picked them 3-1 non-conference, 3-5 in conference). The SoDak & UNA wins don't seem to be worth much, and the Monmouth win was closer than the final score.

[grizband]

Nova just had 3 lopsided wins over nobodies coming in. Now they have a road win over a definite somebody, which makes a huge difference. They've actually surprised me a bit—their offense looked like it was gonna be a total rebuild coming into the season.

I picked Montana to go 6-6, and nothing I've seen so far changes my mind on that (I picked them 3-1 non-conference, 3-5 in conference). The SoDak & UNA wins don't seem to be worth much, and the Monmouth win was closer than the final score.
Fair enough.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Illinois State Redbirds
6: Montana State Bobcats
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Nicholls State Colonels
9: Furman Paladins
10: Villanova Wildcats
11: Towson Tigers
12: Princeton Tigers
13: Maine Black Bears
14: Weber State Wildcats
15: Central Arkansas Bears
16: Kennesaw State Owls
17: North Carolina A&T Aggies
18: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
19: Youngstown State Penguins
20: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
21: Yale Bulldogs
22: Montana Grizzlies
23: Elon Phoenix
24: Stony Brook Seawolves
25: Southern Illinois Salukis

Go Lehigh TU owl

The Most Significant Win: Villanova Wildcats
The Most Significant Loss: Eastern Washington Eagles
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Patriot League

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think ISUr is not as high as many here think ... not yet anyway. If QB Davis keeps throwing with same confidence as he did against NAU in week 4 ... 22 of 33 for 419 yards, then yes, we are a top 10 level team. But while I remain cautiously optimistic that he figured things out, I am also not going to let one really good game make me forget the first 3 games ... just not there quite yet. So I would still have ISUr somewhere between 15 and 18, maybve a little higher after watching our QB throw this past Saturday.

We have a bye week this weel ... but if he plays tough against NDSU in 2 weeks, I will be singing top 10 from the cheap seats. So if he is something like 15 of 25 for 200 yards, and again hang in the pocket and make tough throws, and our team competes like I believe they can in the other phases .... if we/he does that against NDSU, then I think he has turned the corner and we are in good shape the rest of season.

On the other hand, we just lost our top 2 receivers ... top returner SO WR Edgar had 12 catches for 225 yards again NAU ... first game he was 100% for. But late in game he went out indefinitely with injury. And our new #2 WR Grimes is out for season too .. injured during same game. We have a nice young talented group of WRs, but were down to our #3 & beyond. Next man up.

[Mike296]

Mine is actually pretty close across the board. Minus a few on the lower end of things.


Hello Mike296,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 9/22/2019 23:43:15

Your vote is listed below.


1: North Dakota State Bison
2: James Madison Dukes
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: Northern Iowa Panthers
5: Weber State Wildcats
6: Montana State Bobcats
7: UC Davis Aggies
8: Towson Tigers
9: Kennesaw State Owls
10: Central Arkansas Bears
11: Furman Paladins
12: Illinois State Redbirds
13: Maine Black Bears
14: Nicholls State Colonels
15: Jacksonville State Gamecocks
16: Montana Grizzlies
17: Villanova Wildcats
18: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
19: Youngstown State Penguins
20: North Carolina A&T Aggies
21: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
22: The Citadel Bulldogs
23: Princeton Tigers
24: Stony Brook Seawolves
25: Idaho Vandals

Mike296

The Most Significant Win: Idaho Vandals
The Most Significant Loss: UC Davis Aggies
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Ohio Valley Conference

[dewey]

Here is a question to anyone that has Jacksonville State over Southeastern Louisiana. What is your thinking on JSU above SLU? (Not trying to be a smart*** just trying to understand someone else's point of view).

Dewey

[dewey]

8: Towson Tigers
17: Villanova Wildcats

Mike296


Question for you.

Why have Villanova at #17 and Towson at #8 after Villanova has beaten Towson?

Dewey

[Mike296]

Question for you.

Why have Villanova at #17 and Towson at #8 after Villanova has beaten Towson?

Dewey

My reasoning for that is actually pretty simple. I underrated Nova to start the season and I overrated Towson as for their spots in the poll my mindset for things like this is along the lines of “How will each team respond to the result in question going through the rest of the season and in my eyes Towson has the better odds of responding in conference play. To answer your question about JSU and SELA it really was a matter just not being sure enough about either team to fully gauge what they should be ranked. So I winged it and went with JSU as the higher ranked team. There’s a bit of a caveat to this though, SELA plays in a tougher conference than JSU does. Does SELA have what it takes to weather the storm like JSU does? Or do they falter in conference play? I’m not saying that JSU should be ranked higher on paper but if you look at it from the perspective of their remaining schedules then I say JSU has the easier schedule in the OVC to actually pick themselves back up after a loss like that whereas SELA has to deal with a SLC that is improving year in year out with more teams starting to emerge as quality teams.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

My reasoning for that is actually pretty simple. I underrated Nova to start the season and I overrated Towson as for their spots in the poll my mindset for things like this is along the lines of “How will each team respond to the result in question going through the rest of the season and in my eyes Towson has the better odds of responding in conference play. To answer your question about JSU and SELA it really was a matter just not being sure enough about either team to fully gauge what they should be ranked. So I winged it and went with JSU as the higher ranked team. There’s a bit of a caveat to this though, SELA plays in a tougher conference than JSU does. Does SELA have what it takes to weather the storm like JSU does? Or do they falter in conference play? I’m not saying that JSU should be ranked higher on paper but if you look at it from the perspective of their remaining schedules then I say JSU has the easier schedule in the OVC to actually pick themselves back up after a loss like that whereas SELA has to deal with a SLC that is improving year in year out with more teams starting to emerge as quality teams.

All ways of doing things have their merits but I don't understand how putting what you think might happen above what has happened. We have 4 games now with some H2H and I think it is time to start shelving what we thought or projecting what might happen. Which team is better or has the better resume now has got to be worth more going forward I think.

Does SELA have what it takes...they had what it took when it counted so are they better or not? I think they are. Can that change? Damn sure it can but right now...

I think you are trying to answer question in both examples Mike that you or anyone us can not answer while looking past some work we can actually see. If that changes then you can change your mind at that time couldn't you?

[caribbeanhen]

My reasoning for that is actually pretty simple. I underrated Nova to start the season and I overrated Towson as for their spots in the poll my mindset for things like this is along the lines of “How will each team respond to the result in question going through the rest of the season and in my eyes Towson has the better odds of responding in conference play. To answer your question about JSU and SELA it really was a matter just not being sure enough about either team to fully gauge what they should be ranked. So I winged it and went with JSU as the higher ranked team. There’s a bit of a caveat to this though, SELA plays in a tougher conference than JSU does. Does SELA have what it takes to weather the storm like JSU does? Or do they falter in conference play? I’m not saying that JSU should be ranked higher on paper but if you look at it from the perspective of their remaining schedules then I say JSU has the easier schedule in the OVC to actually pick themselves back up after a loss like that whereas SELA has to deal with a SLC that is improving year in year out with more teams starting to emerge as quality teams.

why even play the games

[JSUSoutherner]

To answer your question about JSU and SELA it really was a matter just not being sure enough about either team to fully gauge what they should be ranked. So I winged it and went with JSU as the higher ranked team. There’s a bit of a caveat to this though, SELA plays in a tougher conference than JSU does. Does SELA have what it takes to weather the storm like JSU does? Or do they falter in conference play? I’m not saying that JSU should be ranked higher on paper but if you look at it from the perspective of their remaining schedules then I say JSU has the easier schedule in the OVC to actually pick themselves back up after a loss like that whereas SELA has to deal with a SLC that is improving year in year out with more teams starting to emerge as quality teams.
You're wrong.

[MR. CHICKEN]

....LEAST MIKEY......INSERTED...KENNESAW STATE......INTA HIS BIRD CAGE LINER....DIS WEEK.........AWK!