Hero Sports - kudos UC Davis, Villanova, Furman

[gofurman]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-week-four-recap-ndsu-jmu-ucdavis-furman-ajaj

Congrats UC Davis, Villanova and Furman on being the teams mentioned !

From article "So here's a strong take on what just happened in the last 24 hours: Furman is the team that needs to be flying high on everybody's poll ballot tomorrow. The Paladins aren't No. 17 in the country, pollsters (grrrrr, don't get me started), and I even had them at No. 9 on my ballot and they should be higher than that. I don't give a damn about the 2-2 record (think about who this team lost to and by how much, people). If the world stopped today, Furman is an FCS seed with a first-round bye so the players can have some extra Thanksgiving turkey and not worry about a game in 48 hours. They could actually have some extra stuffing and cranberries and pumpkin pie, too. Hey, if that's not motivation for a starving offensive lineman (I weigh like an OL now, but I'm about a foot too short to be one), than I don't know what is. Furman is legit, folks."

[wapiti]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-week-four-recap-ndsu-jmu-ucdavis-furman-ajaj

Congrats UC Davis, Villanova and Furman on being the teams mentioned !

From article "So here's a strong take on what just happened in the last 24 hours: Furman is the team that needs to be flying high on everybody's poll ballot tomorrow. The Paladins aren't No. 17 in the country, pollsters (grrrrr, don't get me started), and I even had them at No. 9 on my ballot and they should be higher than that. I don't give a damn about the 2-2 record (think about who this team lost to and by how much, people). If the world stopped today, Furman is an FCS seed with a first-round bye so the players can have some extra Thanksgiving turkey and not worry about a game in 48 hours. They could actually have some extra stuffing and cranberries and pumpkin pie, too. Hey, if that's not motivation for a starving offensive lineman (I weigh like an OL now, but I'm about a foot too short to be one), than I don't know what is. Furman is legit, folks."

But you wear purple glasses.

Edit:
The scores against the 2 FBS teams is very respectable and the beatdown on you gave to fellow FCS teams is also respectable. So 17 is probably a bit low on the ranking. But if Furman wins the rest of its games the ranking will take care of themselves. If I remember right the playoff committee uses the coaches poll as part of the process. So that is the poll to watch. Will the stats and AGS poll have an effect on the coaches poll??? Maybe?? I don't know.


2nd Edit:
If we follow your logic then Sac state should also be highly ranked.

[Outsider1]

I still have my own personal purple glasses but still marked you guys as the most significant win this past weekend. It wasn't the biggest game of the week but I think it was a win that finally tipped your bubble.

[gofurman]

But you wear purple glasses.

Actually I don't. Go back and read my posts (don't, my posts aren't worth it.. LOL). I am as unbiased a fan as there is (notice I said UC Davis, Villanova and Furman). though yes, I quoted the Furman part

Anyway, you will find I am pretty objective and not "that guy". I don't prop my team up. Just facts for the most part.

[BEAR]

https://herosports.com/fcs/football-2019-week-four-recap-ndsu-jmu-ucdavis-furman-ajaj

If the world stopped today, Furman is an FCS seed with a first-round bye so.... "

Dear author of the article...Um....there are 8 more games. It's called a season. The world hasn't stopped yet because..

https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.k7WvgR_9gTQ4-CZvoEzkMAHaFa&w=226&h=164&c=7&o=5&pid=1.7


I wish UCA could not include that first pick six Hawaii got against us or the 3 other TDs AND we only count the nearly 3 quarters we held them scoreless.........but again....(meme above). The whole game counts. xlolx

[Daytripper]

They are in my top 10. They should have a FBS scalp. They got robbed.

[gofurman]

Um....there are 8 more games. It's called a season. The world hasn't stopped yet because..

https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.k7WvgR_9gTQ4-CZvoEzkMAHaFa&w=226&h=164&c=7&o=5&pid=1.7


I wish UCA could not include that first pick six Hawaii got against us or the 3 other TDs AND we only count the nearly 3 quarters we held them scoreless.........but again....(meme above). The whole game counts. xlolx

totally agree - that's why he said "if the world stopped today". Its a full season his article is just weekly and commended UC, Villanova and Furman - all 3 of whom deserve it this week (and only for this week). No one week should radically affect the polls but should be taken with the body of work.

[JacksFan40]

Furman lost to a bad Georgia State team and lost to a mediocre Virginia Tech, the FCS wins were impressive but I’ll hold off on calling them contenders to the Bison until they are consistently winning.

[gofurman]

I'm not calling them contenders to the Bison.. never said that in any part of my posts. Believe me that GSU and VT especially would be top 10 and top 5 FCS - EASILY. VT might win the FCS title.

Fact - a worse GSU team last year (only 2 wins all year) beat a seeded Kennesaw team as their FCS game. GSU is better this year.. so not a stretch they are top 10 FCS pretty easy. I watch enough to know VT would be top 5 FCS easy too. Furman led both at half and wore down w scholarships ...

Again, no argument - I am NOT saying we are title contenders. NOT at all. and we do need to win consistently - you are right. SDSU is very impressive by the way

[Gil Dobie]

I've had them 10 for 3 weeks now.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Georgia St was 2-10 last year, and ranked #123 by Massey. This year so far, they are 2-2 playing against the 109th ranked SOS, this got them #112 by Massey. They just lost to Texas St, who was Massey #124 last year. They got blown out by 47 playing against WMU, who was ranked #97 by Massey a year ago. This makes Georgia St a bottom 5 to 10 FBS program ... and you lost to them. A top 8 FCS seed does not lose to a bottom 10 FBS team.

You really need to stop bragging about losing by 6 to a bad FBS team.

As for VA Tech, that is a little more to brag about .. they were 6-6 a year ago and lost their bowl game, and ranked #68 by Massey. So losing to them by 7 is a quality loss.

But right now you are 2-2 playing against the Massey #44 SOS ... you're 2 FCS wins were by nice margins over weak teams. There are plenty of teams with as good or better records against tougher schedules than Furman's .. bottom line, you've played 3 weak teams and are 2-2. This is a bubble team resume so far.

Next week, you have ETSU .. they are 2-2 against the 95th ranked SOS. They lost to VMI and only beat 2-2 Austin Peay by 6. Beating ETSU at home will not make you a top 8 seed either.

Lastly, the 2 most popular computer based ranking systems ... Massey has you #29, Sagarin has you #11, Massey Composite has you at #16, right behind my ISUr at #15 .. both of those seem about right as of 4 games into season given results as of today.

We have a bye next week, then play #1 NDSU to be followed by 3 other top 5-20 teams ... UNI, YSU, SDSU, and arguably ISUb (or not with QB injury). Furman does not play a single team that is currently top 25. For perspective, according to Massey Composite, the 3 other toughest teams in Southern are currently ranked Citadel #30, Samford #36, and Wofford #44 .. then after that the next toughest is Mercer at #60 and ETSU #64. You need to beat teams like this convincingly to move up into top 8.

[smilo]

My vote for Furman by week has been 11 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5. I don't know what people are missing with this team.

I should add, however, there is not a lot of room to move up further and even if they take care of business, I can't guarantee they would stay top 5.

[gofurman]

Georgia St was 2-10 last year, and ranked #123 by Massey. This year so far, they are 2-2 playing against the 109th ranked SOS, this got them #112 by Massey. They just lost to Texas St, who was Massey #124 last year. They got blown out by 47 playing against WMU, who was ranked #97 by Massey a year ago. This makes Georgia St a bottom 5 to 10 FBS program ... and you lost to them. A top 8 FCS seed does not lose to a bottom 10 FBS team.

You really need to stop bragging about losing by 6 to a bad FBS team.

As for VA Tech, that is a little more to brag about .. they were 6-6 a year ago and lost their bowl game, and ranked #68 by Massey. So losing to them by 7 is a quality loss.

But right now you are 2-2 playing against the Massey #44 SOS ... you're 2 FCS wins were by nice margins over weak teams. There are plenty of teams with as good or better records against tougher schedules than Furman's .. bottom line, you've played 3 weak teams and are 2-2. This is a bubble team resume so far.

Next week, you have ETSU .. they are 2-2 against the 95th ranked SOS. They lost to VMI and only beat 2-2 Austin Peay by 6. Beating ETSU at home will not make you a top 8 seed either.

Lastly, the 2 most popular computer based ranking systems ... Massey has you #29, Sagarin has you #11, Massey Composite has you at #16, right behind my ISUr at #15 .. both of those seem about right as of 4 games into season given results as of today.

We have a bye next week, then play #1 NDSU to be followed by 3 other top 5-20 teams ... UNI, YSU, SDSU, and arguably ISUb (or not with QB injury). Furman does not play a single team that is currently top 25. For perspective, according to Massey Composite, the 3 other toughest teams in Southern are currently ranked Citadel #30, Samford #36, and Wofford #44 .. then after that the next toughest is Mercer at #60 and ETSU #64. You need to beat teams like this convincingly to move up into top 8.


Redbird, I don't really disagree though I think Citadel or Samford may be top 25 in a week or three possibly. But yes, SoCon isn't great. Winner of that game this week probably gets at top 25 as Citadel is top 25 in one poll I saw (stats o coaches?)

you all certainly play a killer conference schedule !!! I agree

That said ya' know MONEY talks... BS walks. We were a 20+ point dog to VT in Vegas (MONEY baby MONEY - all else is BS) and lost by 7. We are also 4-0 against the spread on all teams. IE, we are still undervalued even in Vegas and they (as w any team) keep upping the ante and haven't caught us yet. Heck, a buddy of mine who bets but couldn't give a rats azz about Furman (clemson fan) started talking about us. He said "they just don't want to give you guys credit". Based on our first three games - and their (Mercer) first three games - we had a spread of about 10 vs Mercer. won by 30+ - and that's after beating the VT spread by 14 or so.

that's the very definition of market undervaluation. now, before any reply - I get that Vegas spreads are different from rankings - I understand arbitrage and Janet Yellen etc. You could be a horrible team 0-11 and beat the spread every week. But it is an interesting data point. Wonder how many D1 teams (FBS or FCS) are 4-0 v spread? that's NOT pro-Furman, that's a data point and for those that bet its a point of interest. Heck, Furman is 14-3 vs spread in last 17 FBS games. UGA isn't (they didn't cover vs Notre Dame) etc..

betting on Furman would be a good value... lol

no worries. I will say ETSU beating AustinP isn't bad - I think AP may push JSU a little in OVC. all that and yes, Furman just needs to keep winning I agree.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't really disagree though I think Citadel or Samford may be top 25 in a week or three possibly. But yes, SoCon isn't great. maybe two bid league I hope.

you all certainly play a killer conference schedule !!! I agree

That said ya' know MONEY talks... BS walks. We were a 20+ point dog to VT in Vegas (MONEY baby MONEY - all else is BS) and lost by 7. We are also 4-0 against the spread on all teams. IE, we are still undervalued even in Vegas and they (as w any team) keep upping the ante and haven't caught us yet. Heck, a buddy of mine who bets but couldn't give a rats azz about Furman (clemson fan) started talking about us. He said "they just don't want to give you guys credit". Based on our first three games - and their (Mercer) first three games - we had a spread of about 10 vs Mercer. won by 30+ - and that's after beating the VT spread by 14 or so.

that's the very definition of market undervaluation. now, before any reply - I get that Vegas spreads are different from rankings - I understand arbitrage and Janet Yellen etc. You could be a horrible team 0-11 and beat the spread every week. But it is an interesting data point. Wonder how many D1 teams (FBS or FCS) are 4-0 v spread? that's NOT pro-Furman, that's a data point and for those that bet its a point of interest. Heck, Furman is 14-3 vs spread in last 17 FBS games. UGA isn't (they didn't cover vs Notre Dame) etc..

betting on Furman would be a good value... lol

no worries. I will say ETSU beating AustinP isn't bad - I think AP may push JSU a little in OVC
not disputing that Furman is team on slow rise ... but I just don't think you are close to top 8 resume at this point.

[gofurman]

not disputing that Furman is team on slow rise ... but I just don't think you are close to top 8 resume at this point.

I could see that - some of it is eye test vs resume. I mean, we can only play who is on our schedule and whatever they are ranked ... I think that's where the HERO guy (who know their stuff pretty well) were coming from, when you watch us it's pretty good stuff. Mercer was averaging 40+ points per game vs Western Carolina (w Tyrie Adams, not the team of the past few weeks) and a decent APy team. I've been watchin' since 90s so I have perspective. We held them to 10 - anyway, long season

[FUGameBreaker]

FU Baby xthumbsupx

[lionsrking2]

not disputing that Furman is team on slow rise ... but I just don't think you are close to top 8 resume at this point.

Define a top 8 resume.

[ksu_owls]

I'm not calling them contenders to the Bison.. never said that in any part of my posts. Believe me that GSU and VT especially would be top 10 and top 5 FCS - EASILY. VT might win the FCS title.

Fact - a worse GSU team last year (only 2 wins all year) beat a seeded Kennesaw team as their FCS game. GSU is better this year.. so not a stretch they are top 10 FCS pretty easy. I watch enough to know VT would be top 5 FCS easy too. Furman led both at half and wore down w scholarships ...

Again, no argument - I am NOT saying we are title contenders. NOT at all. and we do need to win consistently - you are right. SDSU is very impressive by the way

If Furman wouldn't have cancelled this year's game against KSU we would see who is better head to head. Hard to objectively argue that beating Tennessee makes Ga St better than they were last year. The only wins they are guaranteed this season are the two they have, their record may end up being the same. Don't hear me wrong... I do believe Furman is a top 10 team, but I'm not ready to hand out seeding and the SoCon will give them a few tests. Also, with our loss to Kent State I would argue we are not seed worthy (unless Kent beats Wisconsin, which they will not). Unfortunately our cupcake schedule is set and we shouldn't be tested again leaving us an auto-bid and hopes to make a statement in the first two rounds like 2017. But hey, we're rebuilding so I'll take it.

[FUGameBreaker]

If Furman wouldn't have cancelled this year's game against KSU we would see who is better head to head. Hard to objectively argue that beating Tennessee makes Ga St better than they were last year. The only wins they are guaranteed this season are the two they have, their record may end up being the same. Don't hear me wrong... I do believe Furman is a top 10 team, but I'm not ready to hand out seeding and the SoCon will give them a few tests. Also, with our loss to Kent State I would argue we are not seed worthy (unless Kent beats Wisconsin, which they will not). Unfortunately our cupcake schedule is set and we shouldn't be tested again leaving us an auto-bid and hopes to make a statement in the first two rounds like 2017. But hey, we're rebuilding so I'll take it.


We play @ KSU in 2023
https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/furman/

Yes, FU should wait and see how VA. Tech does in the ACC before we get credit for almost beating them (robbed by refs, ect.) and if we keep winning in SoCon things will take care of themselves naturally indeed

[Redbird 4th & short]

Define a top 8 resume.
seriously ? Ok how about this:

1. NDSU .. 4-0
2. JMU .. 3-1 with quality FBS loss to top 25 team
3. SDSU .. 4-0 with quality FBS loss to top 35 team
4. UCD .. 2-2 against 3rd ranked SOS, and quality FBS loss to top 25 team
5. UNI .. 2-1 with quality FBS loss to top 35 team
6. Weber St .. 1-2 against 1st ranked SOS, and 2 quality FBS losses

So zero doubt for the above 6, plus pick any 2 from folllowing list in no particular order: 3-1 Montana, 3-1 Mont St, 4-0 Villanova, 3-0 YSU, 3-1 ISUr, 3-1 Towson, 2-1 SELA, 3-1 UCA, 3-1 JSU

That's 15 teams IMO with better (or as good, except for UCD) records playing against similar or tougher SOS's than Furman.

So no, Furman at 2-2 against 44th ranked SOS is just not a top 8 seed resume.

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=308075

[lionsrking2]

seriously ? Ok how about this:

1. NDSU .. 4-0
2. JMU .. 3-1 with quality FBS loss to top 25 team
3. SDSU .. 4-0 with quality FBS loss to top 35 team
4. UCD .. 2-2 against 3rd ranked SOS, and quality FBS loss to top 25 team
5. UNI .. 2-1 with wuality FBDS loss to top 35 team
6. Weber St .. 1-2 against 1st ranked SOS, and 2 quality FBS losses

So zero doubt for the above 6, plus pick any 2 from folllowing list in no particular order: 3-1 Montana, 3-1 Mont St, 4-0 Villanova, 3-0 YSU, 3-1 ISUr, 3-1 Towson, 2-1 SELA, 3-1 UCA, 3-1 JSU

That's 15 teams IMO with better (or as good, except for UCD) records playing against tougher or as tough SOS's.

So no, Furman at 2-2 against 44th ranked SOS is just not a top 8 seed resume.

https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2800&s=308075

Yes, seriously. I asked for a definition, not necessarily a list. Besides, SDSU isn't 4-0, they're 3-1. Also, how do you determine who has a strong schedule? Massey ratings mean nothing to me, especially at this point in the season.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yes, seriously. I asked you to define it, not necessarily give me a list. Besides, SDSU isn't 4-0, they're 3-1. Also, how do you determine who has a strong schedule? Massey ratings mean nothing to me, especially at this point in the season.

Correct on SDSU ... typo as I mentioned the quality FBS loss to 3-0 Minnesota.

As for defining a top 8 resume ? Figure showing 15 teams with a better resume wold do the trick. So if you really need a definition ... sure, the team with the best combination of quality wins and quality losses, with wuality defined by SOS.

As for Massey SOS, it is the only objective way to assess SOS this early in season. If it were easy to do, I would prefer to use Massey Composite to determine SOS ... but it's too hard to crunch the data and it keeps tweaking within same week anyway as each ranking systems published ranking.

Curious how would you suggest anyone determine SOS objectively after 4 weeks ?

[lionsrking2]

Correct on SDSU ... typo as I mentioned the quality FBS loss to 3-0 Minnesota.

As for defining a top 8 resume ? Figure showing 15 teams with a better resume wold do the trick. So if you really need a definition ... sure, the team with the best combination of quality wins and quality losses, with wuality defined by SOS.

As for Massey SOS, it is the only objective way to assess SOS this early in season. If it were easy to do, I would prefer to use Massey Composite to determine SOS ... but it's too hard to crunch the data and it keeps tweaking within same week anyway as each ranking systems published ranking.

Curious how would you suggest anyone determine SOS objectively after 4 weeks ?

I don't think there is a way to objectively assess strength of schedule, especially after 4 weeks. It's all a guess and an eyeball test.

[FUGameBreaker]

Correct on SDSU ... typo as I mentioned the quality FBS loss to 3-0 Minnesota.

As for defining a top 8 resume ? Figure showing 15 teams with a better resume wold do the trick. So if you really need a definition ... sure, the team with the best combination of quality wins and quality losses, with wuality defined by SOS.

As for Massey SOS, it is the only objective way to assess SOS this early in season. If it were easy to do, I would prefer to use Massey Composite to determine SOS ... but it's too hard to crunch the data and it keeps tweaking within same week anyway as each ranking systems published ranking.

Curious how would you suggest anyone determine SOS objectively after 4 weeks ?



Just because you typed out 15 different schools and think they have a better resume does not mean you are correct, that's your opinion


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c

- - - Updated - - -

I am not worried about it, we keep winning while others above us lose and we will move on up xnodx

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't think there is a way to objectively assess strength of schedule, especially after 4 weeks. It's all a guess and an eyeball test.

Yes and no ... mostly no for humans, but there are computers that help you do that as you gather more data for this season. Some programs reload/rebuild more consistently than others. Ignoring last year or last 5 years, when ranking teams early in season is the only credible way to to rank teams after 4 game. Is it less credible early in season ... yes. But until you know more about this season, there is no choice but to partially weight prior seasons.

So any debate about SOS or rankings must put some weight on prior seasons ... that is what computers do because the human mind can not possibly do that as objectively or comprehensively as a computer can. That does not make the computer right, but the computer is far more capable of doing this than 99% of humans .. especially early in season.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Just because you typed out 15 different schools and think they have a better resume does not mean you are correct, that's your opinion


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c

- - - Updated - - -

I am not worried about it, we keep winning while others above us lose and we will move on up xnodx

Not just my opinion, I used Massey Composite (not Massey alone) to assess SOS along side each of those teams records. Those 15 teams all had better records (except UCD) and against comparable or tougher schedules than 2-2 Furman. The Georgia St close loss, was not a quality loss for a top 8 team. But it might be a quality loss if you were a 25th ranked team or so.

Given what looks like a very weak year for Southern at this point, Furman would have to continue winning convincingly in most of their conference games if they are truly a top 8 seed level team .. right now, based on 4 OOC games, there are no top 25 teams from Southern other than Furman. So right now it is possible, you will not play a single ranked team, much less a playoff team.

So when I put Furmans 2-2 record against those 15 teams, there are fair to strong arguments for those 15 to be ranked at or higher than Furman IMO, but based entirely on Massey Composite data. The idea that going 2-2 against your schedule to date makes you a top 8 seed is just rediculous after 4 games. You were a bubble team last year that probably deserved a bid IMO, but a bubble team nonetheless.

If you continue to win your conference games convincingly, I can see Furman creeping into top 10 .. but same could be said for those 15 teams and probabkly another 6-8 I didn't mention. Right now, the Massey Composite putting Furman at #16 seems right.

By the way, I happen to believe my ISUr is a top 10 team, maybe higher ... but right now, at 3-1, any poll that has us between 15-18 seems about right as of week 4.

[PaladinFan]

Yes and no ... mostly no for humans, but there are computers that help you do that as you gather more data for this season. Some programs reload/rebuild more consistently than others. Ignoring last year or last 5 years, when ranking teams early in season is the only credible way to to rank teams after 4 game. Is it less credible early in season ... yes. But until you know more about this season, there is no choice but to partially weight prior seasons.

So any debate about SOS or rankings must put some weight on prior seasons ... that is what computers do because the human mind can not possibly do that as objectively or comprehensively as a computer can. That does not make the computer right, but the computer is far more capable of doing this than 99% of humans .. especially early in season.

I'm a baseball guy. Baseball perhaps utilizes data more than any sport. Data has its place, but it isn't a panacea. It is one tool among many.

I don't get too wrapped up in SOS. I used to think it mattered, but the committee clearly doesn't value it. If they did, they would stop rewarding teams with weak schedules and punishing those that don't. I really see no benefit to "scheduling up" when the only apparent goal is 8 wins regardless of who those wins come against. If Kennesaw State didn't get dinged last year for losing to Georgia State, Furman shouldn't either. In fact, if Georgia State has beaten top 10-15ish FCS teams in back to back seasons, odds are they don't suck.

Regarding Furman, I've seen a lot of FCS football. I've seen Furman as the top team in the country. I've seen them plenty as a top 5 team. I do not think anyone will mistake the 2019 Furman Paladins for the 2004 or 05 teams, but they are a really good football team. I don't need data to tell me that. You can watch the game and see it.

Computers have their place, but sometimes you just need to watch the game.

[FUGameBreaker]

Not just my opinion, I used Massey Composite (not Massey alone) to assess SOS along side each of those teams records. Those 15 teams all had better records (except UCD) and against comparable or tougher schedules than 2-2 Furman. The Georgia St close loss, was not a quality loss for a top 8 team. But it might be a quality loss if you were a 25th ranked team or so.

Given what looks like a very weak year for Southern at this point, Furman would have to continue winning convincingly in most of their conference games if they are truly a top 8 seed level team .. right now, based on 4 OOC games, there are no top 25 teams from Southern other than Furman. So right now it is possible, you will not play a single ranked team, much less a playoff team.

So when I put Furmans 2-2 record against those 15 teams, there are fair to strong arguments for those 15 to be ranked at or higher than Furman IMO, but based entirely on Massey Composite data. The idea that going 2-2 against your schedule to date makes you a top 8 seed is just rediculous after 4 games. You were a bubble team last year that probably deserved a bid IMO, but a bubble team nonetheless.

If you continue to win your conference games convincingly, I can see Furman creeping into top 10 .. but same could be said for those 15 teams and probabkly another 6-8 I didn't mention. Right now, the Massey Composite putting Furman at #16 seems right.

By the way, I happen to believe my ISUr is a top 10 team, maybe higher ... but right now, at 3-1, any poll that has us between 15-18 seems about right as of week 4.




We have played 4 weeks of the season, its 100% your opinion, we will talk again in a few weeks after teams have more to show than FBS blowout loses or close FBS loses on their resume

[MR. CHICKEN]

......ANY ONE.....WHO DOES'NT.......INCORPORATE...SOS.........IN DEY'RE DECISION MAKIN' PROCESS........PROLLY......SHOULDN'T BE DOIN'....ANY VOTIN'.......AWK!

[FUGameBreaker]

......ANY ONE.....WHO DOES'NT.......INCORPORATE...SOS.........IN DEY'RE DECISION MAKIN' PROCESS........PROLLY......SHOULDN'T BE DOIN'....ANY VOTIN'.......AWK!


FU has 2 FCS blowout wins and 2 close FBS loses, no chink in their armour as of yet, lets see which teams around FCS will fold under pressure first (Colgate, EWU and Wofford have already), then we can have this discussion

[Redbird 4th & short]

We have played 4 weeks of the season, its 100% your opinion, we will talk again in a few weeks after teams have more to show than FBS blowout loses or close FBS loses on their resume
what I meant and said is my opinion is based entirely on looking at each team's record and then quickly scanning Massey Composites to get sense of quality wins and quality losses. And my point was, there are 15 or more teams with strong arguments that their resume is as good or better than Furman.

But partly agree with other poster .. if your willing and able to watch every team in contention play and then draw some conclusions about who might be better ... then more power to you. But that is also a completely subjective opinion based on your ability to assess and compare teams who don't play each other. So I assume most people here are not really that qualified, nor have the time to do that ... so I tend to trust computers, and things like the Massey Composite .. let them do all the heavy lifting and take the average of all the systems that do all the crunching of comparative scores, wins, and SOS.

In that sense, I'm not pretending to be able to something I know most people can't do .. I am relying heavily on Massey Composite. And yes, if I'm in lazy mood or just don't have time, then I'll just use Massey since they make comapring SOS the easiest. But because i don't watch other teams games, my views of rankings and SOS are based heavily on Massey Composite, which is up to 50 polls by end of year.

[gofurman]

I'm a baseball guy. Baseball perhaps utilizes data more than any sport. Data has its place, but it isn't a panacea. It is one tool among many.

I don't get too wrapped up in SOS. I used to think it mattered, but the committee clearly doesn't value it. If they did, they would stop rewarding teams with weak schedules and punishing those that don't. I really see no benefit to "scheduling up" when the only apparent goal is 8 wins regardless of who those wins come against. If Kennesaw State didn't get dinged last year for losing to Georgia State, Furman shouldn't either. In fact, if Georgia State has beaten top 10-15ish FCS teams in back to back seasons, odds are they don't suck.

Regarding Furman, I've seen a lot of FCS football. I've seen Furman as the top team in the country. I've seen them plenty as a top 5 team. I do not think anyone will mistake the 2019 Furman Paladins for the 2004 or 05 teams, but they are a really good football team. I don't need data to tell me that. You can watch the game and see it.

Computers have their place, but sometimes you just need to watch the game.

good objective response here. PaladinFan and I both saw us with Ingle Martin in 04/05 when we were top 5 easy - more talented than our national title team probably. Anyway, we were a GREAT team then. And yet he admits we aren't quite that good now. But we are vgood. When a fan says something like that it's worth listening to.

We are top15-10 worthy I think. That's all. No need for anyone to get worked up on this

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm a baseball guy. Baseball perhaps utilizes data more than any sport. Data has its place, but it isn't a panacea. It is one tool among many.

I don't get too wrapped up in SOS. I used to think it mattered, but the committee clearly doesn't value it. If they did, they would stop rewarding teams with weak schedules and punishing those that don't. I really see no benefit to "scheduling up" when the only apparent goal is 8 wins regardless of who those wins come against. If Kennesaw State didn't get dinged last year for losing to Georgia State, Furman shouldn't either. In fact, if Georgia State has beaten top 10-15ish FCS teams in back to back seasons, odds are they don't suck.

Regarding Furman, I've seen a lot of FCS football. I've seen Furman as the top team in the country. I've seen them plenty as a top 5 team. I do not think anyone will mistake the 2019 Furman Paladins for the 2004 or 05 teams, but they are a really good football team. I don't need data to tell me that. You can watch the game and see it.

Computers have their place, but sometimes you just need to watch the game.

Sure and agreed ... but have you or anyone for that matter watched multiple games for each of the top 15 teams I cited ?

Going to guess you have not. So how are you able to determine Furman is top 5 ?

[gofurman]

I have watched some of other top 10 though not all. Granted, the opponents vary so that makes it hard to judge. But with that I would say COAHCES and STATS owe us a possible bump

[FU_Paladin08]

But you wear purple glasses.

Edit:
The scores against the 2 FBS teams is very respectable and the beatdown on you gave to fellow FCS teams is also respectable. So 17 is probably a bit low on the ranking. But if Furman wins the rest of its games the ranking will take care of themselves. If I remember right the playoff committee uses the coaches poll as part of the process. So that is the poll to watch. Will the stats and AGS poll have an effect on the coaches poll??? Maybe?? I don't know.


2nd Edit:
If we follow your logic then Sac state should also be highly ranked.

Agreed, and I have my purple shades on. We are still very early in the season with too many non-conference games played to base rankings on. Conference play will determine who are the real deal.

[PaladinFan]

Sure and agreed ... but have you or anyone for that matter watched multiple games for each of the top 15 teams I cited ?

Going to guess you have not. So how are you able to determine Furman is top 5 ?

I didn't say Furman was a top 5 team. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. I just don't think looking at some computer composite ranking and using it to draw all conclusions is useful or productive.

If you've watched Furman play and can draw conclusions about it, then fine. Have an opinion.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I didn't say Furman was a top 5 team. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. I just don't think looking at some computer composite ranking and using it to draw all conclusions is useful or productive.

If you've watched Furman play and can draw conclusions about it, then fine. Have an opinion.
I guess my point is that I along with 99.5% of the posters here will never watch enough games to be able to watch Furman and decide they are top 8. So until more games are played (i.e. 7 to 8 games or more), I think relying on computers (i.e. Massey Composite, etc) has more credibility than any human judgement, in terms of judging each teams SOS, which is critical to figuring out where they might rank. 4 games into season, humans just don't know ... and I think computers know better than humans and are less biased .. unless youre going to watch all the games and truly know football. But that isn't practical.

Not picking on Furman .. but only 8 teams can be top 8, Furman's 2-2 record againt that SOS is not yet evidence of top 8 yes it is IMO but based entirely on Massey Composite and Massey for determining SOS this early in season. If you had beaten Georgia St, then maybe. But even then, Georgia St would likely not be top 8 in FCS, and Furman lost to them.

But I disagree about humans vs computers, especially just 4 games into season ... because like most people here, I'm not watching all of the games .. so I let the computers do all the heavy lifting, they take into account every game played .. not just Furmans games.

Once we get further rinto season, it begins to sort itself out .. but even then, rankings depend on record, margins, and SOS ... records and margins are easy, but someone has to be able to judge SOS. Determining quality wins and quality losses ... that must be relative to SOS. For that I trust Massey Composite more than 99.5% of humans.

[PaladinFan]

I guess my point is that I along with 99.5% of the posters here will never watch enough games to be able to watch Furman and decide they are top 8. So until more games are played (i.e. 7 to 8 games or more), I think relying on computers (i.e. Massey Composite, etc) has more credibility than any human judgement, in terms of judging each teams SOS, which is critical to figuring out where they might rank. 4 games into season, humans just don't know ... and I think computers know better than humans and are less biased .. unless youre going to watch all the games and truly know football. But that isn't practical.

Not picking on Furman .. but only 8 teams can be top 8, Furman's 2-2 record againt that SOS is not yet evidence of top 8 yes it is IMO but based entirely on Massey Composite and Massey for determining SOS this early in season. If you had beaten Georgia St, then maybe. But even then, Georgia St would likely not be top 8 in FCS, and Furman lost to them.

But I disagree about humans vs computers, especially just 4 games into season ... because like most people here, I'm not watching all of the games .. so I let the computers do all the heavy lifting, they take into account every game played .. not just Furmans games.

Once we get further rinto season, it begins to sort itself out .. but even then, rankings depend on record, margins, and SOS ... records and margins are easy, but someone has to be able to judge SOS. Determining quality wins and quality losses ... that must be relative to SOS. For that I trust Massey Composite more than 99.5% of humans.

I personally think that a lot of FCS programs have an inflated view of what it takes to beat a FBS team. Georgia State is not a top FBS team, but they still would wax most FCS programs (in my opinion) and have a 20+ scholarship advantage. That's a lot to overcome. You are seeing this year that FCS teams have taken it on the chin in FBS games.

The computers really don't factor in luck, either (what baseball metrics might call BABIP). For instance, in the Georgia State game, Furman had two red zone turnovers called back for tiny things like not having complete possession on an interception or a defenders arm being an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble. Both of those drives ended in GSU touchdowns. While I think the calls were correct, in a 6 point game, does a computer take note of a 14 point swing based on a defenders arm being half an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble? Does it care that an onside kick was called back against Virginia Tech for a penalty that wasn't called on the field and neither coach could explain?

Maybe those calls change the outcome of the game. If Furman recovers that fumble against GSU, maybe they win. Are they a top 10 team now because the defenders arm wasn't half an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble? Do they get a shot to tie VT with the ball on the 50 yard line and two timeouts in a 7 point game? We'll never know.

I don't have data on this, but I think Georgia State would wax most FCS teams. I know FCS teams don't want to hear that or don't think there is that great of a talent disparity, but the team I saw would cream most every team at this level besides the top handful of teams.

[gofurman]

I personally think that a lot of FCS programs have an inflated view of what it takes to beat a FBS team. Georgia State is not a top FBS team, but they still would wax most FCS programs (in my opinion) and have a 20+ scholarship advantage. That's a lot to overcome. You are seeing this year that FCS teams have taken it on the chin in FBS games.

The computers really don't factor in luck, either (what baseball metrics might call BABIP). For instance, in the Georgia State game, Furman had two red zone turnovers called back for tiny things like not having complete possession on an interception or a defenders arm being an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble. Both of those drives ended in GSU touchdowns. While I think the calls were correct, in a 6 point game, does a computer take note of a 14 point swing based on a defenders arm being half an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble? Does it care that an onside kick was called back against Virginia Tech for a penalty that wasn't called on the field and neither coach could explain?

Maybe those calls change the outcome of the game. If Furman recovers that fumble against GSU, maybe they win. Are they a top 10 team now because the defenders arm wasn't half an inch on the sideline when recovering a fumble? Do they get a shot to tie VT with the ball on the 50 yard line and two timeouts in a 7 point game? We'll never know.

I don't have data on this, but I think Georgia State would wax most FCS teams. I know FCS teams don't want to hear that or don't think there is that great of a talent disparity, but the team I saw would cream most every team at this level besides the top handful of teams.

Agree 100%. How many REAL FCS over FBS upsets have there been ?

this is NOT Pro-Furman. This is showing FBS v FCS. Furman coach even said it's harder for FCS vs the FBS now than it was in 80s etc (and he would know as he played for Furman and beat NC State twice and Georgia Tech and South Carolina all between 82-85!!!)... He said it is somewhat because of the ridiculous recruiting facilities and weight rooms the FBS have to help in the arms race now. I heard him talking about this. CLemson (not that anyone is beating them from FCS) has a slide from level 2 to level 1 and putt putt courses in their freakin 55 MILLION dollar facility. It's like a 5 start hotel. THey have bowling alleys etc. Even Georgia State gets to sell that you play at a Major League Baseball Park! They play at the Atlanta Braves old stadium !

I know of some weak FBS wins over FCS off hand - East Carolina who is really struggling beat William and Mary. ECU sucks.
Kent State was supposed to be a real chance for FCS and KSU did well but lost in OT.
Duke beat NC A&T by 30.
Wake Forest beat Elon 49-7.. Wake doesn't have elite FBS recruits despite their undefeated record. App used to beat them regularly
*Poor old bad old UT 1-3.. beat Chatt 45-0 ! that's their ONE win. They can't buy an FBS win (literally, as they paid Georgia State 950K to lose !!!) but they crush FCS without breaking a sweat.
Top three FCS JMU couldn't beat poor WVU
Top Weber State lost to both San Diego State and Nevada. I pick these last teams because they are the BEST in FCS. And they couldn't do it vs 'ok' FBS teams.


also, the Georgia State as a "not a top FCS team" thing just doesn't hold up. GSU would be top ten FCS EASY. GSU beat Kennesaw State last year ( KSU was a seeded playoff team! so that IS top 8 right there) and GSU beat 15th ranked Furman this year 48-42. Both close games. But GSU won both. They are arguably top5/10 FCS. I mean, they are supposedly better this year (won 2 games last year, one of which was Kennesaw!) and have already won 2 this year so will probably win 3 or 4 games. That's the difference in FBS and FCS.

The UT scores work well. UT is 0-3 in FBS and everyone is laughing at them. they CRUSHED Chattanooga 45-0 and no one else from FCS has done anything like that to Chattanooga in terms of KILLIN' them.

Anyway, part of it that kills is the 22 scholarship differential. Thats basically 3 good OL for FBS vs 2 good DL for FCS. Even IF they were closely talented thats gonna wear down the FCS team. 3 vs 2 just ain't a fair fight. When every position has an extra guy that is a killer - not just in depth but also in getting to pick your best guy to be the starter!!! that's HUUUUGE. FCS has two guys to pick a starter from. FBS has three guys to pick their starter from. Then you get back to the recruiting arms race that some of these places have palaces to entice recruits...

[youwouldno]

There's no way AGS poll voters, or voters in any of the other polls, can watch even a majority of the relevant teams play. Statistical rankings are objective, which makes them a good starting point.

Ideally, voters would be aware of certain factors that might throw the computer ratings off, especially early in the year . . . there is a lack of 'connectivity', for lack of a more technical word, that causes problems for the mathematical approach Massey/Sagarin use. There's no question, for instance, that Massey's Furman rating (not the composite) is too low. You can see this objectively by comparing the predicted Massey scores to the Vegas lines on the games. In college, having free time that I don't anymore, I bet on FCS games to take advantage of the discrepancies (the initial lines are computer-generated for FCS games).

Usually, the discrepancies between a computer rating and reality will be broader than one team - a handful of fluky OOC games can wind up shifting an entire conference up or down. That can cause issues throughout the year, not only in the beginning. Still though, I would start with the computer rankings, and then secondly consider whether there are certain teams or conferences that are too high or low due to an objective, identifiable reason.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Georgia St record against FCS ... only waxed one team in 7 years and 10 games, only 1 of their wins was agianst an FCS playoff team .. KSU in 2018. In fact, most of their wins are against .500 level teams in weaker conferences.

- 2019 beat 2-2 Furman by 6
- 2018 beat 11-2 KSU by 4
- 2017 beat 6-5 Tenn St by 7
- 2016 beat 7-5 Tenn Martin by 24
- 2015 beat 6-5 Liberty by 8
- 2014 beat 6-6 Abilene by 1
- 2013 went 0-3 against the 3 FCS teams JSU, Chattanoog, and Samford .. their 1st year in FBS
- 2012 went 1-10 playing FCS .. their last year

[PaladinFan]

Georgia St record against FCS ... only waxed one team in 7 years and 10 games, only 1 of their wins was agianst an FCS playoff team .. KSU in 2018. In fact, most of their wins are against .500 level teams in weaker conferences.

- 2019 beat 2-2 Furman by 6
- 2018 beat 11-2 KSU by 4
- 2017 beat 6-5 Tenn St by 7
- 2016 beat 7-5 Tenn Martin by 24
- 2015 beat 6-5 Liberty by 8
- 2014 beat 6-6 Abilene by 1
- 2013 went 0-3 against the 3 FCS teams JSU, Chattanoog, and Samford .. their 1st year in FBS
- 2012 went 1-10 playing FCS .. their last year

I guess my response to this is, "so what?"

I'm not here arguing that GSU is a historically good FBS team. I'm not arguing that they are a top FBS team in 2019. I just don't see what it matters what GSU did 8 years ago with a different coaching staff and different players.

If you didn't watch the game, I'm not sure what the basis for your argument is. There's little utility in arguing computer data points with someone who doesn't actually watch these teams play.

Nothing personal, but if you are only looking at one element of available information, you are going to miss out.

[FUGameBreaker]

Will be interesting to see how VA Tech does against Duke tomorrow night on ESPN

[ElCid]

There's no way AGS poll voters, or voters in any of the other polls, can watch even a majority of the relevant teams play. Statistical rankings are objective, which makes them a good starting point.


Huh? You are talking every week, right? I have seen a majority of relevant teams play already this year. Not every week, but over the last 4 weeks I easily have. ESPN online is great. Plus a lot of games on regular TV to boot. At least on my cable. I usually watch a minimum of 5 games every sat. Not all of it, but I will have at least 2-3 games up at any given time and flip between them. But in general I agree...you got to look at the data. If I am in a dilemma over a team, I will also go check out the in-depth box scores and even peruse the play by play and drive charts.

[Lorne_Malvo]

Huh? You are talking every week, right? I have seen a majority of relevant teams play already this year. Not every week, but over the last 4 weeks I easily have. ESPN online is great. Plus a lot of games on regular TV to boot. At least on my cable. I usually watch a minimum of 5 games every sat. Not all of it, but I will have at least 2-3 games up at any given time and flip between them. But in general I agree...you got to look at the data. If I am in a dilemma over a team, I will also go check out the in-depth box scores and even peruse the play by play and drive charts.

Once you fast forward through all the bs, its only an hour of time to watch a game.
I have watched way too many already this year.

[PaladinFan]

Once you fast forward through all the bs, its only an hour of time to watch a game.
I have watched way too many already this year.

And I imagine you've watched enough FCS football to know what teams look legitimate, and what teams are less so.

[ElCid]

Once you fast forward through all the bs, its only an hour of time to watch a game.
I have watched way too many already this year.

Yup. You can them pretty fast on replays. I still like the excitement of live action for games I am real interested in.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I guess my response to this is, "so what?"

I'm not here arguing that GSU is a historically good FBS team. I'm not arguing that they are a top FBS team in 2019. I just don't see what it matters what GSU did 8 years ago with a different coaching staff and different players.

If you didn't watch the game, I'm not sure what the basis for your argument is. There's little utility in arguing computer data points with someone who doesn't actually watch these teams play.

Nothing personal, but if you are only looking at one element of available information, you are going to miss out.
Both you and the other Furman fan said GA St would wax most FCS teams ... well they've had 7 chances since 2014 and only waxed 1 of 7. Not to mention only one was a playoff team. You both just said that on last page. Clearly GA St struggles against the average FCS teams.

[PaladinFan]

Both you and the other Furman fan said GA St would wax most FCS teams ... well they've had 7 chances since 2014 and only waxed 1 of 7. Not to mention only one was a playoff team. You both just said that on last page. Clearly GA St struggles against the average FCS teams.

I am having a hard time understanding how you don't draw a distinction between a team 7 years ago and a team today. I mean, Furman was a three win team three years ago. Same school, completely different football teams.

In the last two seasons, Georgia State beat both Kennesaw and Furman. Kennesaw was a playoff seed and made it to the, I think, third round. Furman this season, is probably at least a top 15 team and may eventually find their way into the top 10.

So, this Georgia State team under this coaching staff and these players have beaten two top 15 FCS teams.

Again, go watch them play and put down a list of the FCS teams that you think would beat Georgia State. I don't think it will be a long list. If you haven't seen them play, stop making the argument.

[ElCid]

Both you and the other Furman fan said GA St would wax most FCS teams ... well they've had 7 chances since 2014 and only waxed 1 of 7. Not to mention only one was a playoff team. You both just said that on last page. Clearly GA St struggles against the average FCS teams.

But I am pretty sure what they did in 2018 back to 2014 is increasingly irrelevant to entirely irrelevant. And since they play only one FCS team this year, the point anyone is trying to make is merely an opinion or guess. This year's team is really all that matters. And they have lost to 2 G5 want a bes, and beat a "down" SEC team, and a top 10 FCS. I will continue to wait until their resume fills out a bit more. Their two losses have tarnished them somewhat, but a lot of football to play yet.

[Lorne_Malvo]

put down a list of the FCS teams that you think would beat Georgia State. I don't think it will be a long list. If you haven't seen them play, stop making the argument.

15 FCS teams would be favorites vs Georgia State on a neutral field. I call that a pretty long list.

[FUGameBreaker]

15 FCS teams would be favorites vs Georgia State on a neutral field. I call that a pretty long list.



Unfortunately FCS does not get to play FBS teams at home or on neutral field, otherwise Furman would have beaten GA St. easy without those trash rigged Sun Belt refs and replay system, and we don't bother with this conversation

[gofurman]

15 FCS teams would be favorites vs Georgia State on a neutral field. I call that a pretty long list.

but only about 5 would be a favorite on the GSU field. It's the junk we have to live with as FCS fans. Amazingly, apparently CItadel had Navy come to Citadel one year back in 80s

[ElCid]

but only about 5 would be a favorite on the GSU field. It's the junk we have to live with as FCS fans. Amazingly, apparently CItadel had Navy come to Citadel one year back in 80s

That would be 1988. We played them, and beat them 42-35 in Charleston. They were only averaging 15-20k for attendance in Annapolis back then and we were as well so we worked it out.

[FU_Paladin08]

Kinda going in circles here fellas, but I guess that’s what forums are for. Furman does not deserve a seed as of right now. They have the potential, but still need to prove it across the entire season. Losing by 13 total points across two FCS teams is impressive no matter who the opponents, especially for a FCS team outside of the top 10. Things look promising, but still many teams ahead that have tough games beginning this week.

For us Furman guys, patience. We don’t get to jump back to the top tier without winning consistently (and winning convincingly in the SoCon). Other folks, watch out. Furman’s coming and we plan on staying around for awhile.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I am having a hard time understanding how you don't draw a distinction between a team 7 years ago and a team today. I mean, Furman was a three win team three years ago. Same school, completely different football teams.

In the last two seasons, Georgia State beat both Kennesaw and Furman. Kennesaw was a playoff seed and made it to the, I think, third round. Furman this season, is probably at least a top 15 team and may eventually find their way into the top 10.

So, this Georgia State team under this coaching staff and these players have beaten two top 15 FCS teams.

Again, go watch them play and put down a list of the FCS teams that you think would beat Georgia State. I don't think it will be a long list. If you haven't seen them play, stop making the argument.
Youre not paying attention

First ... GA St was just 2-10 in 2018 aginst the 89th ranked SOS, 1-10 agianst FBS ... not 7 years ago, last year .. and ranked #123 by Massey.

Second, I just gave you 6 of 7 that played with them, similar to Furman ... 5 of which were very mediocre FCS teams, only 1 was playoff team.

Third ... and no, not from 7 years ago ... but from each of the last 7 years .. there's a big difference.

Already covered all this ... right ??

[ElCid]

Third ... and no, not from 7 years ago ... but from each of the last 7 years .. there's a big difference.


Anyone who references a team from 7 years ago, in any manner, in order to discuss how bad, or good, a team is this year is just spinning. Unless you believe that teams are totally static in regard to their quality. Wow?

[Redbird 4th & short]

Anyone who references a team from 7 years ago, in any manner, in order to discuss how bad, or good, a team is this year is just spinning. Unless you believe that teams are totally static in regard to their quality. Wow?

Nice ... edit my post before quoting it to remove the reference to how bad they were in 2018, in addition to how bad they have been since going FBS in 2013. Idea is to demonstrate, they are currently bad and have always been bad. Ignoring history is foolish.

"First ... GA St was just 2-10 in 2018 aginst the 89th ranked SOS, 1-10 agianst FBS ... not 7 years ago, last year .. and ranked #123 by Massey."

It's really no different when we assume Bison will be a top team again this year despite losing many starters and coaches from a year ago ... that is. 7 Natty's in 8 years leads everyone to assume they will still be top 1 to 3 despite losing so many players and coaches. Would you ignore that history ?

Exact same thing .. right ?

[FUGameBreaker]

Guys its all good, probably should just put it to bed for now, we will find out plenty more in the next 36 hours

[FU_Paladin08]

Amen brother!

[PaladinFan]

Nice ... edit my post before quoting it to remove the reference to how bad they were in 2018, in addition to how bad they have been since going FBS in 2013. Idea is to demonstrate, they are currently bad and have always been bad. Ignoring history is foolish.

"First ... GA St was just 2-10 in 2018 aginst the 89th ranked SOS, 1-10 agianst FBS ... not 7 years ago, last year .. and ranked #123 by Massey."

It's really no different when we assume Bison will be a top team again this year despite losing many starters and coaches from a year ago ... that is. 7 Natty's in 8 years leads everyone to assume they will still be top 1 to 3 despite losing so many players and coaches. Would you ignore that history ?

Exact same thing .. right ?

Are you not just ignoring that Georgia State plays in an FBS conference?

Say Georgia State is a bad FBS team. Say they are the worst FBS team of all time.

Isn't it possible that they could still be the quality of a good to very good FCS team? Can we not just agree that's possible? That maybe if Georgia State played in the OVC instead of the Sun Belt they'd be 10-2 not 2-10? Same team, right? Different level of competition.

[PaladinFan]

Anyone who references a team from 7 years ago, in any manner, in order to discuss how bad, or good, a team is this year is just spinning. Unless you believe that teams are totally static in regard to their quality. Wow?

I have the same argument with those that only look at baseball metrics to describe the value of a player. Folks get so wrapped up into some metric that didn't exist 5 minutes ago to tell me that a player that was good last year, is not good this year.

Data is a tool. It is not the only tool. Data simply cannot anticipate every variable. It supplements, not supplants.

[ElCid]

Nice ... edit my post before quoting it to remove the reference to how bad they were in 2018, in addition to how bad they have been since going FBS in 2013. Idea is to demonstrate, they are currently bad and have always been bad. Ignoring history is foolish.

"First ... GA St was just 2-10 in 2018 aginst the 89th ranked SOS, 1-10 agianst FBS ... not 7 years ago, last year .. and ranked #123 by Massey."

It's really no different when we assume Bison will be a top team again this year despite losing many starters and coaches from a year ago ... that is. 7 Natty's in 8 years leads everyone to assume they will still be top 1 to 3 despite losing so many players and coaches. Would you ignore that history ?

Exact same thing .. right ?

No, not the same. Referencing the performance of a team 7 years ago to support their capability or anticipated performance this year is always silly...always. So bringing it up does nothing to support your position. A position I don't necessarily disagree or agree with, but you are simply shooting blanks when you bring up how a team did years ago. I have to grunt a little just looking at last year, after 4 games in this year. Looking beyond that gets exponentially ridiculous.

[PaladinFan]

No, not the same. Referencing the performance of a team 7 years ago to support their capability or anticipated performance this year is always silly...always. So bringing it up does nothing to support your position. A position I don't necessarily disagree or agree with, but you are simply shooting blanks when you bring up how a team did years ago. I have to grunt a little just looking at last year, after 4 games in this year. Looking beyond that gets exponentially ridiculous.

I mean, Furman changed coaches and took a 3 win team to the second round of the playoffs with nearly the exact same roster.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Are you not just ignoring that Georgia State plays in an FBS conference?

Say Georgia State is a bad FBS team. Say they are the worst FBS team of all time.

Isn't it possible that they could still be the quality of a good to very good FCS team? Can we not just agree that's possible? That maybe if Georgia State played in the OVC instead of the Sun Belt they'd be 10-2 not 2-10? Same team, right? Different level of competition.

........NO!.........SOUFFERN ILLINOIS......BEAT UMA$$........45-20................BRAWK!!

[Redbird 4th & short]

........NO!.........SOUFFERN ILLINOIS......BEAT UMA$$........45-20................BRAWK!!
must be a typo Mr Chicken .. are you saying a 9th place MVFC team from last year beat a weak FBS by 25. In fact, UMass was 4-8 a year ago to SIU's 2-9 ... go figure. So SIU is 2-2, destroyed an FBS and therefore must be a top 8 seed ? :D

[Sir William]

PaladinFan, just tell Redbird he's right and be done with this thread.

[Redbird 4th & short]

No, not the same. Referencing the performance of a team 7 years ago to support their capability or anticipated performance this year is always silly...always. So bringing it up does nothing to support your position. A position I don't necessarily disagree or agree with, but you are simply shooting blanks when you bring up how a team did years ago. I have to grunt a little just looking at last year, after 4 games in this year. Looking beyond that gets exponentially ridiculous.

Did you pick Bison #1 preseason ? Why ? They were 2nd to last in returning starters in all of FCS and turned over their HC and several assistants. So assuming you picked them #1 or thereabouts .... why did you and nearly EVERYONE pick them #1 in preseason ?

Then explain the difference between everyone assuming NDSU is one of the favorites and me assuming Georgia St is a bad FBS team again this year.

This isn't complicated. Until more games are played, we have to depend on what we do know by looking at history. Nobody watches all the teams or games.

[gofurman]

must be a typo Mr Chicken .. are you saying a 9th place MVFC team from last year beat a weak FBS by 25. In fact, UMass was 4-8 a year ago to SIU's 2-9 ... go figure. So SIU is 2-2, destroyed an FBS and therefore must be a top 8 seed ? :D

UMess (that's their wording) is listed in ESPNs "bottom 10" you people. Georgia State is NOT listed there. FACTS people - give me a northeastern (WEAK ASS) team anytime

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27695109/michigan-once-again-stumbles-bottom-10

Oh, I see UMESS is the NUMBER ONE WEAKEST TEAM they are laughing at. THE WORST MOFO TEAM

Pleeeeeze. Umass and GSU are NOT Comps - UMESS has led the "BOTTOM TEN" for TWO STRAIGHT WEEKS !!!!!!!!

"
With apologies to James Howlett and Steve Harvey, here's this week's Bottom 10.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/113.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true1. UMess (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/113/umass-minutemen) (0-4)

In Week 3, the Minutemen lost to Charlotte 52-17. In Week 4, they lost to Coastal Carolina 62-28. Meanwhile, Charlotte lost at Clemson 52-10. That means that as Coastal Carolina was landing back home in Myrtle Beach from Massachusetts on Saturday night, said beach was covered up in celebrating Clemson fans. Ah, the Circle of Life.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2006.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true2. Akron-monious (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2006/akron-zips) (0-4)

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We shouldn't have expected much from UMass last week because it was no doubt already looking ahead to this week, when the Zips will travel to Amherst for 2019's first Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year of the Century (PFOWYOC). After Akron lost to Troy 35-7, ESPN's mystical and magical FPI computer dropped its chances of winning at UMass from 60.9% to 58.9%. We reached out to our Bottom 10 Chalk correspondent in Vegas to see what effects that mathematical slip had on the sure-to-be-bustling Minutemen vs. Zips sportsbook traffic, but Uncle Ray didn't answer his flip phone because he'd dropped it into the bread pudding on the buffet at the Circus Circus.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/41.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true3. U-Can't (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/41/uconn-huskies) (1-2)

The Huskies: Eastern Division have settled into their role as the 2019 college football "We're the guys to get you back on track" frustration releasers.

[Redbird 4th & short]

UMess (that's their wording) is listed in ESPNs "bottom 10" you people. Georgia State is NOT listed there. FACTS people - give me a northeastern (WEAK ASS) team anytime

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27695109/michigan-once-again-stumbles-bottom-10

Oh, I see UMESS is the NUMBER ONE WEAKEST TEAM they are laughing at. THE WORST MOFO TEAM

Pleeeeeze. Umass and GSU are NOT Comps - UMESS has led the "BOTTOM TEN" for TWO STRAIGHT WEEKS !!!!!!!!

"
With apologies to James Howlett and Steve Harvey, here's this week's Bottom 10.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/113.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true1. UMess (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/113/umass-minutemen) (0-4)

In Week 3, the Minutemen lost to Charlotte 52-17. In Week 4, they lost to Coastal Carolina 62-28. Meanwhile, Charlotte lost at Clemson 52-10. That means that as Coastal Carolina was landing back home in Myrtle Beach from Massachusetts on Saturday night, said beach was covered up in celebrating Clemson fans. Ah, the Circle of Life.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2006.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true2. Akron-monious (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2006/akron-zips) (0-4)

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We shouldn't have expected much from UMass last week because it was no doubt already looking ahead to this week, when the Zips will travel to Amherst for 2019's first Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year of the Century (PFOWYOC). After Akron lost to Troy 35-7, ESPN's mystical and magical FPI computer dropped its chances of winning at UMass from 60.9% to 58.9%. We reached out to our Bottom 10 Chalk correspondent in Vegas to see what effects that mathematical slip had on the sure-to-be-bustling Minutemen vs. Zips sportsbook traffic, but Uncle Ray didn't answer his flip phone because he'd dropped it into the bread pudding on the buffet at the Circus Circus.
https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/41.png?w=110&h=110&transparent=true3. U-Can't (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/41/uconn-huskies) (1-2)

The Huskies: Eastern Division have settled into their role as the 2019 college football "We're the guys to get you back on track" frustration releasers.
yes, some bad teams are better than other bad teams

p.s. UMass was 4-8 last year, Georgia St was 2-10

[MR. CHICKEN]

must be a typo Mr Chicken .. are you saying a 9th place MVFC team from last year beat a weak FBS by 25. In fact, UMass was 4-8 a year ago to SIU's 2-9 ... go figure. So SIU is 2-2, destroyed an FBS and therefore must be a top 8 seed ? :D


....YES.........IFIN' UH MVFC DOORMAT........CAN WAFFLE UH BAD FBS........PALADINFAN'S THOUGHT....DAT BAD FBS...CAN RUN...WHIFF DUH TOP....UH FCS....IS DIS-PROVED.......BRAWK!

[Redbird 4th & short]

w (https://twitter.com/AP_Top25/status/1177798131859243008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1177798131859243008&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.anygivensaturday.com%2Fs howthread.php%3F233508-13-Furman-FBS-Virginia-Tech-(9-14-12pm)%2Fpage12)ell ... so much for that VA Tech quality loss xdrunkyx

[FUGameBreaker]

w (https://twitter.com/AP_Top25/status/1177798131859243008?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1177798131859243008&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.anygivensaturday.com%2Fs howthread.php%3F233508-13-Furman-FBS-Virginia-Tech-(9-14-12pm)%2Fpage12)ell ... so much for that VA Tech quality loss xdrunkyx



Give me a 7 point loss at VA. Tech everyday of the week over a 14 point loss at Northern Illinois :D

[Redbird 4th & short]

Give me a 7 point loss at VA. Tech everyday of the week over a 14 point loss at Northern Illinois :D

agreed .. though our score was 10-10 heading into Q4 and their last score was on our desperation throw from our own 11 for pick 6 in the final minutes. Our QB was horrible that day .. hoping he's figured things out like he showed against NAU last week. I'm guardedly optimistic ... we got Bison next saturday .. so we'll find out quick.

[FUGameBreaker]

agreed .. though our score was 10-10 heading into Q4 and their last score was on our desperation throw from our own 11 for pick 6 in the final minutes. Our QB was horrible that day .. hoping he's figured things out like he showed against NAU last week. I'm guardedly optimistic ... we got Bison next saturday .. so we'll find out quick.



I am just messing with you, but yes next Saturday will be a big one for you guys, good luck