Records versus playoff game winners this decade [Archive]

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AmsterBison

August 21st, 2019, 09:27 AM

Raw data from a post I made on Bisonville that shows teams' records in games involving teams that won a playoff game during the season:

Team
W
L

Abilene Christian
1
5

Alabama State
0
4

Appalachian State
5
6

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0
1

Austin Peay
0
8

Bethune-Cookman
1
3

Brown
1
0

Bryant University
1
4

Bucknell
0
6

Butler
0
4

Cal Poly-SLO
4
15

Campbell
0
4

Central Arkansas
3
9

Central Connecticut State
0
7

Charleston Southern
4
10

Chattanooga
4
13

Coastal Carolina
3
10

Colgate
1
11

Columbia
0
2

Cornell
0
2

Dartmouth
1
1

Davidson
0
3

Dayton
0
6

Delaware
7
12

Delaware State
0
2

Drake
0
7

Duquesne
0
7

East Tennessee State
0
8

Eastern Illinois
3
10

Eastern Kentucky
3
7

Eastern Washington
18
14

Elon
3
21

Florida A&M
0
2

Fordham
0
8

Furman
1
17

Gardner-Webb
1
12

Georgetown (DC)
1
6

Georgia Southern
6
5

Georgia State
0
2

Hampton
0
7

Harvard
0
1

Holy Cross
1
9

Houston Baptist
0
7

Howard
0
1

Idaho State
1
10

Illinois State
11
18

Incarnate Word
0
9

Indiana State
3
23

Jackson State
0
1

Jacksonville (FL)
0
4

Jacksonville State
5
11

James Madison
12
16

Kennesaw State
2
3

Lafayette College
1
10

Lamar (TX)
1
11

Lehigh
1
12

Liberty
3
10

Maine
5
15

Marist
0
2

Massachusetts
0
5

McNeese State
3
9

Mercer (GA)
1
7

Mississippi Valley State
0
4

Missouri State
4
22

Monmouth (NJ)
1
7

Montana
5
14

Montana State
2
18

Morehead State
0
3

Morgan State
0
4

Murray State
2
4

New Hampshire
12
16

Nicholls State
0
11

Norfolk State
0
5

North Alabama
0
1

North Carolina A&T
1
3

North Carolina Central
0
2

North Dakota
0
11

North Dakota State
45
7

Northern Arizona
2
9

Northern Colorado
0
12

Northern Iowa
7
23

Northwestern State (LA)
1
10

Old Dominion
2
2

Pennsylvania
0
3

Portland State
1
12

Prairie View A&M
0
2

Presbyterian
0
15

Princeton
2
2

Rhode Island
2
19

Richmond
6
18

Robert Morris
0
7

Sacramento State
1
8

Sacred Heart
0
5

Sam Houston State
13
11

Samford
8
14

San Diego
0
5

Savannah State
0
1

SE Missouri State
1
7

South Carolina State
0
4

South Dakota
1
25

South Dakota State
15
21

Southeastern LA
2
10

Southern Illinois
3
23

Southern Utah
3
12

St. Francis (PA)
0
6

Stephen F. Austin
0
15

Stetson (FL)
0
2

SUNY-Albany
2
13

SUNY-Stony Brook
3
10

Tennessee State
1
5

Tennessee Tech
0
13

Tennessee-Martin
0
6

Texas - San Antonio
0
1

Texas Southern
0
4

Texas State
0
2

The Citadel
3
15

Towson
6
16

UC Davis
2
11

UNC-Charlotte
0
2

Valparaiso
0
3

Villanova
8
17

VMI
0
13

Wagner
0
4

Weber State
4
10

Western Carolina
0
15

Western Illinois
5
22

William & Mary
6
17

Wofford
4
13

Yale
2
2

Youngstown State
7
21

JSUSoutherner

August 21st, 2019, 10:07 AM

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 10:18 AM

AmsterBison

August 21st, 2019, 10:25 AM

Does this include games before the opponents won a playoff game?

IE we played KSU last year and lost, they went on to beat Wofford. That counts as an L, correct? It's not just 'second round and beyond W/L'

Also is this all time?

No, sorry, this is just this decade, and, yes, if you played a team in September and they went on to win a playoff game in December, that gets counted.

Mocs123

August 21st, 2019, 10:29 AM

JSUSoutherner

August 21st, 2019, 10:31 AM

No, sorry, this is just this decade, and, yes, if you played a team in September and they went on to win a playoff game in December, that gets counted.

Ok gotcha.

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 10:41 AM

AmsterBison .. hope you don't mind. i was too curious, so dropped your table into excel, added Win % and Games per Year, then ranked those 2 columns. So it shows who plays and wins more of these games .. both telling. By decade, I assume you mean 2010-18.

So Brown ranks 1st in Win %, but with just 1 game against a playoff team, ranks just 123rd in games played. My ISUr rankes 15th in Win % and 5th in games played.

Team
Wins
Losses
Win %
G/Yr
R-W%
R-G/Yr

Total
317
1145
0.217
162.44

Abilene Christian
1
5
0.167
0.67
46
80

Alabama State
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Appalachian State
5
6
0.455
1.22
10
55

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

Austin Peay
0
8
0.000
0.89
74
67

Bethune-Cookman
1
3
0.250
0.44
27
93

Brown
1
0
1.000
0.11
1
123

Bryant University
1
4
0.200
0.56
42
87

Bucknell
0
6
0.000
0.67
74
80

Butler
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Cal Poly-SLO
4
15
0.211
2.11
41
24

Campbell
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Central Arkansas
3
9
0.250
1.33
27
49

Central Connecticut State
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

Charleston Southern
4
10
0.286
1.56
22
37

Chattanooga
4
13
0.235
1.89
34
29

Coastal Carolina
3
10
0.231
1.44
37
39

Colgate
1
11
0.083
1.33
67
49

Columbia
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Cornell
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Dartmouth
1
1
0.500
0.22
6
111

Davidson
0
3
0.000
0.33
74
107

Dayton
0
6
0.000
0.67
74
80

Delaware
7
12
0.368
2.11
16
24

Delaware State
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Drake
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

Duquesne
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

East Tennessee State
0
8
0.000
0.89
74
67

Eastern Illinois
3
10
0.231
1.44
37
39

Eastern Kentucky
3
7
0.300
1.11
21
63

Eastern Washington
18
14
0.563
3.56
3
3

Elon
3
21
0.125
2.67
54
15

Florida A&M
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Fordham
0
8
0.000
0.89
74
67

Furman
1
17
0.056
2.00
72
27

Gardner-Webb
1
12
0.077
1.44
69
39

Georgetown (DC)
1
6
0.143
0.78
52
73

Georgia Southern
6
5
0.545
1.22
4
55

Georgia State
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Hampton
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

Harvard
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

Holy Cross
1
9
0.100
1.11
61
63

Houston Baptist
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

Howard
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

Idaho State
1
10
0.091
1.22
64
55

Illinois State
11
18
0.379
3.22
15
5

Incarnate Word
0
9
0.000
1.00
74
65

Indiana State
3
23
0.115
2.89
58
10

Jackson State
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

Jacksonville (FL)
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Jacksonville State
5
11
0.313
1.78
20
31

James Madison
12
16
0.429
3.11
11
6

Kennesaw State
2
3
0.400
0.56
14
87

Lafayette College
1
10
0.091
1.22
64
55

Lamar (TX)
1
11
0.083
1.33
67
49

Lehigh
1
12
0.077
1.44
69
39

Liberty
3
10
0.231
1.44
37
39

Maine
5
15
0.250
2.22
27
22

Marist
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Massachusetts
0
5
0.000
0.56
74
87

McNeese State
3
9
0.250
1.33
27
49

Mercer (GA)
1
7
0.125
0.89
54
67

Mississippi Valley State
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Missouri State
4
22
0.154
2.89
50
10

Monmouth (NJ)
1
7
0.125
0.89
54
67

Montana
5
14
0.263
2.11
25
24

Montana State
2
18
0.100
2.22
61
22

Morehead State
0
3
0.000
0.33
74
107

Morgan State
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Murray State
2
4
0.333
0.67
18
80

New Hampshire
12
16
0.429
3.11
11
6

Nicholls State
0
11
0.000
1.22
74
55

Norfolk State
0
5
0.000
0.56
74
87

North Alabama
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

North Carolina A&T
1
3
0.250
0.44
27
93

North Carolina Central
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

North Dakota
0
11
0.000
1.22
74
55

North Dakota State
45
7
0.865
5.78
2
1

Northern Arizona
2
9
0.182
1.22
45
55

Northern Colorado
0
12
0.000
1.33
74
49

Northern Iowa
7
23
0.233
3.33
36
4

Northwestern State (LA)
1
10
0.091
1.22
64
55

Old Dominion
2
2
0.500
0.44
6
93

Pennsylvania
0
3
0.000
0.33
74
107

Portland State
1
12
0.077
1.44
69
39

Prairie View A&M
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Presbyterian
0
15
0.000
1.67
74
32

Princeton
2
2
0.500
0.44
6
93

Rhode Island
2
19
0.095
2.33
63
21

Richmond
6
18
0.250
2.67
27
15

Robert Morris
0
7
0.000
0.78
74
73

Sacramento State
1
8
0.111
1.00
60
65

Sacred Heart
0
5
0.000
0.56
74
87

Sam Houston State
13
11
0.542
2.67
5
15

Samford
8
14
0.364
2.44
17
19

San Diego
0
5
0.000
0.56
74
87

Savannah State
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

SE Missouri State
1
7
0.125
0.89
54
67

South Carolina State
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

South Dakota
1
25
0.038
2.89
73
10

South Dakota State
15
21
0.417
4.00
13
2

Southeastern LA
2
10
0.167
1.33
46
49

Southern Illinois
3
23
0.115
2.89
58
10

Southern Utah
3
12
0.200
1.67
42
32

St. Francis (PA)
0
6
0.000
0.67
74
80

Stephen F. Austin
0
15
0.000
1.67
74
32

Stetson (FL)
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

SUNY-Albany
2
13
0.133
1.67
53
32

SUNY-Stony Brook
3
10
0.231
1.44
37
39

Tennessee State
1
5
0.167
0.67
46
80

Tennessee Tech
0
13
0.000
1.44
74
39

Tennessee-Martin
0
6
0.000
0.67
74
80

Texas - San Antonio
0
1
0.000
0.11
74
123

Texas Southern
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Texas State
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

The Citadel
3
15
0.167
2.00
46
27

Towson
6
16
0.273
2.44
24
19

UC Davis
2
11
0.154
1.44
50
39

UNC-Charlotte
0
2
0.000
0.22
74
111

Valparaiso
0
3
0.000
0.33
74
107

Villanova
8
17
0.320
2.78
19
14

VMI
0
13
0.000
1.44
74
39

Wagner
0
4
0.000
0.44
74
93

Weber State
4
10
0.286
1.56
22
37

Western Carolina
0
15
0.000
1.67
74
32

Western Illinois
5
22
0.185
3.00
44
9

William & Mary
6
17
0.261
2.56
26
18

Wofford
4
13
0.235
1.89
34
29

Yale
2
2
0.500
0.44
6
93

Youngstown State
7
21
0.250
3.11
27
6

AmsterBison

August 21st, 2019, 10:42 AM

nice crunch .. makes sense that most teams are well below .500. It would help if you also added conference to your file and then total record by conference and then total for FCS. This would give us baseline since most teams will be well below .500 for obvious reasons ... not just by removing NDSU, though that would also provide a better "baseline" for comparison. Noting most of these games will be intra-conference games.

Yeah, there were so few teams above .500 that I was kind of doubting the counts... but, really, only a max of 16 teams can win a playoff game each year - and those teams that win playoff games usually win a lot more games than they lose.

Conference data:

Query118
ConferenceId
W
L

Big Sky Conference
43
151

Big South Conference
14
73

Colonial Athletic Association
72
186

FCS Independent
0
10

Great West Football Conference
0
5

Ivy League
6
13

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
2
34

Missouri Valley Football Conference
101
204

Northeast Conference
2
44

Ohio Valley Conference
15
71

Patriot League
5
62

Pioneer Football Conference
0
42

Southern Conference
33
128

Southland Conference
24
106

Southwestern Athletic Conference
0
16

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 10:43 AM

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 10:53 AM

Again apologies to Amster, but that is a nice data crunch he did.

Now here are the only teams to finish top 25 in both columns .. noting MVFC records are skewed downard by NDSU's 45-7 record. So we get to exclude all of those 45 losses right ???

Team
Wins
Losses
Win %
G/Yr
R-W%
R-G/Yr
Select

Total
317
1145
0.217
162.44

Delaware
7
12
0.368
2.11
16
24
Y

Eastern Washington
18
14
0.563
3.56
3
3
Y

Illinois State
11
18
0.379
3.22
15
5
Y

James Madison
12
16
0.429
3.11
11
6
Y

New Hampshire
12
16
0.429
3.11
11
6
Y

North Dakota State
45
7
0.865
5.78
2
1
Y

Sam Houston State
13
11
0.542
2.67
5
15
Y

Samford
8
14
0.364
2.44
17
19
Y

South Dakota State
15
21
0.417
4.00
13
2
Y

Towson
6
16
0.273
2.44
24
19
Y

Villanova
8
17
0.320
2.78
19
14
Y

So i think this shows yet another slice of results that proves the same conclusion no matter how you look at it ... MVFC has deserved more bidsw this decade. Look how much NDSU, EWU, and SHSU dominate their own conference .. while Colonial has far more parity. Yet the MVFC Wings still do better come playoff time than any other conference, far better if you remove each conferences dominant team from this decade of results.

POD Knows

August 21st, 2019, 11:04 AM

If, I am reading this right, it pretty much says, everyone except for NDSU sucks!!!!!!!

There are only five teams with winning records (four currently in the subdivision).
Brown (1-0)
Eastern Washington (18-14)
Georgia Southern (6-5) - Now FBS Sunbelt
NDSU (45-7)
Sam Houston (13-11)More than anything I think it shows long term consistency, SHSU, EWU and NDSU have been pretty consistent winners in this decade

SUPharmacist

August 21st, 2019, 11:09 AM

Thanks for putting this together. I do not have the time/energy (or skill) to put together the previous decade, but it makes me wonder what it would look like without a team dominating the way NDSU did over this timeframe. Do you see more teams with records above
.500 or does just everyone end up below as year to year it would flip around.

JSUSoutherner

August 21st, 2019, 11:44 AM

Yeah, there were so few teams above .500 that I was kind of doubting the counts... but, really, only a max of 16 teams can win a playoff game each year - and those teams that win playoff games usually win a lot more games than they lose.

Conference data:

Query118
ConferenceId
W
L

Big Sky Conference
43
151

Big South Conference
14
73

Colonial Athletic Association
72
186

FCS Independent
0
10

Great West Football Conference
0
5

Ivy League
6
13

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
2
34

Missouri Valley Football Conference
101
204

Northeast Conference
2
44

Ohio Valley Conference
15
71

Patriot League
5
62

Pioneer Football Conference
0
42

Southern Conference
33
128

Southland Conference
24
106

Southwestern Athletic Conference
0
16

Arranged by winning percentage:

1 MVFC: .331
2 Ivy: .316
3 CAA: .275
4 Big Sky: .222
5 SoCon: .205
6 SLC: .185
7 OVC: .174
8 Big South: .161
9 Patriot: .075
10 MEAC: .055
11 NEC: .043

Losers:
SWAC: 0-16
Pioneer: 0-42
Indy: 0-10

Also another question, is this just OOC or if since we beat ETSU last year does that mean every OVC team we beat last year count as an L for the OVC?

AmsterBison

August 21st, 2019, 01:34 PM

Also another question, is this just OOC or if since we beat ETSU last year does that mean every OVC team we beat last year count as an L for the OVC?

Not just OVC so every OVC team JSU beat gets an L.

For all-time, I have - it's a bit tricky because I'm only including games in which the team was in the FCS at the time and there isn't perfect agreement on when a team is really FCS (for example, was SDSU an FCS team before they were playoff eligible? I'd say yes but lots of people say no.)

All-Time
TeamId
W
L

Abilene Christian
1
5

Akron
1
6

Alabama State
1
8

Alabama-Birmingham
0
1

Alcorn State
1
8

Appalachian State
26
43

Arkansas State
2
8

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0
3

Austin Peay
1
26

Bethune-Cookman
1
17

Boise State
7
17

Boston University
1
15

Brown
2
3

Bryant University
1
4

Bucknell
0
18

Buffalo
0
8

Butler
0
4

Cal Poly-SLO
4
30

Cal State-Northridge
0
4

Campbell
0
4

Central Arkansas
3
10

Central Connecticut State
0
10

Central Florida
2
7

Charleston Southern
4
12

Chattanooga
8
63

Coastal Carolina
3
12

Colgate
4
29

Columbia
1
3

Connecticut
2
15

Cornell
0
7

Dartmouth
1
8

Davidson
0
7

Dayton
0
6

Delaware
25
43

Delaware State
2
14

Drake
1
12

Duquesne
0
7

East Tennessee State
3
42

Eastern Illinois
6
37

Eastern Kentucky
19
38

Eastern Michigan
0
1

Eastern Washington
24
45

Elon
5
37

Fairfield
0
1

Florida A&M
3
16

Florida Atlantic
1
1

Florida Int'l
0
3

Fordham
0
14

Furman
16
58

Gardner-Webb
1
19

Georgetown (DC)
1
11

Georgia Southern
41
34

Georgia State
0
2

Grambling State
0
8

Hampton
1
15

Harvard
0
3

Hofstra
3
29

Holy Cross
3
19

Houston Baptist
0
7

Howard
0
12

Idaho
9
23

Idaho State
7
42

Illinois State
22
47

Incarnate Word
0
9

Indiana State
3
62

Iona
0
1

Jackson State
1
18

Jacksonville (FL)
0
5

Jacksonville State
5
23

James Madison
25
53

Kennesaw State
2
3

Lafayette College
2
21

Lamar (TX)
1
11

Lehigh
2
31

Liberty
5
26

Louisiana Tech
3
6

Maine
7
54

Marist
0
2

Marshall
23
16

Massachusetts
13
39

McNeese State
14
43

Mercer (GA)
1
7

Middle Tennessee
5
22

Mississippi Valley State
0
7

Missouri State
6
59

Monmouth (NJ)
1
8

Montana
34
49

Montana State
11
49

Morehead State
0
26

Morgan State
0
12

Murray State
4
25

Nevada
8
15

New Hampshire
20
47

Nicholls State
2
36

Norfolk State
0
9

North Alabama
0
1

North Carolina A&T
2
14

North Carolina Central
0
2

North Dakota
0
12

North Dakota State
45
11

North Texas
1
18

Northeastern
5
30

Northern Arizona
3
47

Northern Colorado
0
22

Northern Iowa
24
54

Northwestern State (LA)
6
40

Old Dominion
2
2

Pennsylvania
1
7

Portland State
4
23

Prairie View A&M
0
3

Presbyterian
0
16

Princeton
2
7

Rhode Island
4
55

Richmond
14
49

Robert Morris
0
7

Sacramento State
1
23

Sacred Heart
0
5

Sam Houston State
16
34

Samford
9
28

San Diego
0
5

Savannah State
0
2

SE Missouri State
1
17

Siena
0
1

South Carolina State
1
24

South Dakota
1
26

South Dakota State
15
28

South Florida
2
5

Southeastern LA
3
14

Southern
0
6

Southern Illinois
14
57

Southern Utah
3
25

St. Francis (PA)
0
7

St. Mary's
0
3

St. Peters
0
1

Stephen F. Austin
7
39

Stetson (FL)
0
2

SUNY-Albany
2
16

SUNY-Stony Brook
3
13

Tennessee State
3
20

Tennessee Tech
0
37

Tennessee-Martin
0
13

Texas - San Antonio
0
1

Texas Arlington
0
4

Texas Southern
0
5

Texas State
2
26

The Citadel
5
58

Towson
8
42

Troy
4
8

U LA-Monroe
7
15

UC Davis
4
16

UNC-Charlotte
0
2

Valparaiso
0
3

Villanova
19
49

VMI
1
51

Wagner
0
4

Weber State
5
47

West Texas A&M
0
2

Western Carolina
4
55

Western Illinois
9
57

Western Kentucky
13
33

William & Mary
17
52

Wofford
7
33

Yale
2
4

Youngstown State
31
59

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 01:44 PM

The fact that all are well below .500 makes complete sense regardless of NDSU record being 54-7. He tallied all teams records but only those games against playoff teams from their conference that won at least one playoff game. s other poster said, each year, only 16 teams win their 1st game .. 8 in playin games and 8 more in round of 16. Probably leave the top 8 seeds in there regardless of whether they win or lose in round of 16, but still like what Amster did. Those are team who won a lot of games and finishhed top 8 acording to committee.

I assumed he included OOC games, but that would naturally be a whole lot less common since there's typically only 3 OOC games, usually with 1 against FBS, and possibly 1 against a patsy.

So it makes complete sense that a playoff team that won their 1st game .. arguably a top 16 team .. would have an overall record well over .500 against rest of their schedule .. they made playoffs and round of 16 .. they usually win 75% or more of their games.

Last year, ISUr went 0-3 against playoff teams with all 3 winning their 1st game. Overall we're 11-18, but from 2010-18, we played NDSU 7 times in reg season and only won once (2010). So remove NDSU like everyone assumes we should when evaluating how much MVFC wins .. so w shold do the same when we evaluate our losses ... so we're 10-11 regular season playing against playoff teams that have won at least 1 playoff game. Which means our remaining win % is close to .500 in regular season playing against top 16 playoff teams each year .. this is a pretty good result considering we only made playoffs 4 of 9 years this decade.

JSUSoutherner

August 21st, 2019, 02:17 PM

Not just OVC so every OVC team JSU beat gets an L.

For all-time, I have - it's a bit tricky because I'm only including games in which the team was in the FCS at the time and there isn't perfect agreement on when a team is really FCS (for example, was SDSU an FCS team before they were playoff eligible? I'd say yes but lots of people say no.)

All-Time
TeamId
W
L

Abilene Christian
1
5

Akron
1
6

Alabama State
1
8

Alabama-Birmingham
0
1

Alcorn State
1
8

Appalachian State
26
43

Arkansas State
2
8

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0
3

Austin Peay
1
26

Bethune-Cookman
1
17

Boise State
7
17

Boston University
1
15

Brown
2
3

Bryant University
1
4

Bucknell
0
18

Buffalo
0
8

Butler
0
4

Cal Poly-SLO
4
30

Cal State-Northridge
0
4

Campbell
0
4

Central Arkansas
3
10

Central Connecticut State
0
10

Central Florida
2
7

Charleston Southern
4
12

Chattanooga
8
63

Coastal Carolina
3
12

Colgate
4
29

Columbia
1
3

Connecticut
2
15

Cornell
0
7

Dartmouth
1
8

Davidson
0
7

Dayton
0
6

Delaware
25
43

Delaware State
2
14

Drake
1
12

Duquesne
0
7

East Tennessee State
3
42

Eastern Illinois
6
37

Eastern Kentucky
19
38

Eastern Michigan
0
1

Eastern Washington
24
45

Elon
5
37

Fairfield
0
1

Florida A&M
3
16

Florida Atlantic
1
1

Florida Int'l
0
3

Fordham
0
14

Furman
16
58

Gardner-Webb
1
19

Georgetown (DC)
1
11

Georgia Southern
41
34

Georgia State
0
2

Grambling State
0
8

Hampton
1
15

Harvard
0
3

Hofstra
3
29

Holy Cross
3
19

Houston Baptist
0
7

Howard
0
12

Idaho
9
23

Idaho State
7
42

Illinois State
22
47

Incarnate Word
0
9

Indiana State
3
62

Iona
0
1

Jackson State
1
18

Jacksonville (FL)
0
5

Jacksonville State
5
23

James Madison
25
53

Kennesaw State
2
3

Lafayette College
2
21

Lamar (TX)
1
11

Lehigh
2
31

Liberty
5
26

Louisiana Tech
3
6

Maine
7
54

Marist
0
2

Marshall
23
16

Massachusetts
13
39

McNeese State
14
43

Mercer (GA)
1
7

Middle Tennessee
5
22

Mississippi Valley State
0
7

Missouri State
6
59

Monmouth (NJ)
1
8

Montana
34
49

Montana State
11
49

Morehead State
0
26

Morgan State
0
12

Murray State
4
25

Nevada
8
15

New Hampshire
20
47

Nicholls State
2
36

Norfolk State
0
9

North Alabama
0
1

North Carolina A&T
2
14

North Carolina Central
0
2

North Dakota
0
12

North Dakota State
45
11

North Texas
1
18

Northeastern
5
30

Northern Arizona
3
47

Northern Colorado
0
22

Northern Iowa
24
54

Northwestern State (LA)
6
40

Old Dominion
2
2

Pennsylvania
1
7

Portland State
4
23

Prairie View A&M
0
3

Presbyterian
0
16

Princeton
2
7

Rhode Island
4
55

Richmond
14
49

Robert Morris
0
7

Sacramento State
1
23

Sacred Heart
0
5

Sam Houston State
16
34

Samford
9
28

San Diego
0
5

Savannah State
0
2

SE Missouri State
1
17

Siena
0
1

South Carolina State
1
24

South Dakota
1
26

South Dakota State
15
28

South Florida
2
5

Southeastern LA
3
14

Southern
0
6

Southern Illinois
14
57

Southern Utah
3
25

St. Francis (PA)
0
7

St. Mary's
0
3

St. Peters
0
1

Stephen F. Austin
7
39

Stetson (FL)
0
2

SUNY-Albany
2
16

SUNY-Stony Brook
3
13

Tennessee State
3
20

Tennessee Tech
0
37

Tennessee-Martin
0
13

Texas - San Antonio
0
1

Texas Arlington
0
4

Texas Southern
0
5

Texas State
2
26

The Citadel
5
58

Towson
8
42

Troy
4
8

U LA-Monroe
7
15

UC Davis
4
16

UNC-Charlotte
0
2

Valparaiso
0
3

Villanova
19
49

VMI
1
51

Wagner
0
4

Weber State
5
47

West Texas A&M
0
2

Western Carolina
4
55

Western Illinois
9
57

Western Kentucky
13
33

William & Mary
17
52

Wofford
7
33

Yale
2
4

Youngstown State
31
59

So essentially looking at the numbers by conference is useless. You'd have to look at the OOC numbers to get any real data.

AmsterBison

August 21st, 2019, 02:45 PM

So essentially looking at the numbers by conference is useless. You'd have to look at the OOC numbers to get any real data.

Well, the data is real but not really useful to you :) The only thing that matters to me is the # of wins against playoff winners... to beat a team that wins in the playoffs, that usually means you have to beat a team when they are having one of their best seasons - and that's hard.

I remember when NDSU was in transition and the team had no wins against playoff winners - heck, pretty sure we played more FBS teams than FCS playoff teams so it was really hard to judge where we were. Heck, I'm not sure that counting the Ws current first round games makes sense... seems like I should either not count them or give seeded teams a W for their bye.

But here's the data for non-conference games only:

Query119
TeamId
W
L

Akron
0
2

Alabama State
1
8

Alcorn State
1
8

Appalachian State
13
17

Arkansas State
2
6

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
0
3

Austin Peay
0
5

Bethune-Cookman
1
12

Boise State
5
3

Boston University
0
7

Brown
2
3

Bryant University
0
3

Bucknell
0
5

Buffalo
0
6

Butler
0
2

Cal Poly-SLO
2
20

Cal State-Northridge
0
4

Campbell
0
2

Central Arkansas
0
4

Central Connecticut State
0
8

Central Florida
1
1

Charleston Southern
2
5

Chattanooga
2
16

Coastal Carolina
3
8

Colgate
4
20

Columbia
1
3

Connecticut
0
5

Cornell
0
7

Dartmouth
1
8

Davidson
0
3

Dayton
0
4

Delaware
13
16

Delaware State
1
9

Drake
1
9

Duquesne
0
6

East Tennessee State
0
8

Eastern Illinois
1
28

Eastern Kentucky
14
28

Eastern Michigan
0
1

Eastern Washington
14
22

Elon
2
10

Fairfield
0
1

Florida A&M
3
13

Florida Atlantic
1
1

Florida Int'l
0
2

Fordham
0
6

Furman
8
16

Gardner-Webb
1
10

Georgetown (DC)
1
2

Georgia Southern
26
17

Georgia State
0
1

Grambling State
0
8

Hampton
0
13

Harvard
0
3

Hofstra
2
13

Holy Cross
3
7

Houston Baptist
0
1

Howard
0
6

Idaho
4
11

Idaho State
2
3

Illinois State
6
11

Incarnate Word
0
4

Indiana State
1
11

Iona
0
1

Jackson State
1
18

Jacksonville (FL)
0
4

Jacksonville State
5
14

James Madison
8
17

Kennesaw State
2
2

Lafayette College
1
10

Lamar (TX)
0
1

Lehigh
1
24

Liberty
2
14

Louisiana Tech
2
3

Maine
3
12

Marshall
14
8

Massachusetts
4
12

McNeese State
7
22

Middle Tennessee
4
12

Mississippi Valley State
0
7

Missouri State
1
9

Monmouth (NJ)
0
3

Montana
24
23

Montana State
4
14

Morehead State
0
25

Morgan State
0
9

Murray State
0
8

Nevada
5
7

New Hampshire
6
15

Nicholls State
1
12

Norfolk State
0
6

North Alabama
0
1

North Carolina A&T
1
11

North Carolina Central
0
2

North Dakota
0
6

North Dakota State
26
4

North Texas
0
6

Northeastern
0
5

Northern Arizona
0
9

Northern Colorado
0
3

Northern Iowa
9
25

Northwestern State (LA)
2
16

Old Dominion
1
2

Pennsylvania
1
7

Portland State
1
2

Prairie View A&M
0
3

Presbyterian
0
7

Princeton
2
7

Rhode Island
0
8

Richmond
7
13

Robert Morris
0
5

Sacramento State
0
1

Sacred Heart
0
3

Sam Houston State
13
15

Samford
2
11

San Diego
0
5

Savannah State
0
2

SE Missouri State
0
7

Siena
0
1

South Carolina State
1
21

South Dakota
0
5

South Dakota State
6
8

South Florida
2
3

Southeastern LA
1
5

Southern
0
6

Southern Illinois
5
18

Southern Utah
1
17

St. Francis (PA)
0
5

St. Mary's
0
3

St. Peters
0
1

Stephen F. Austin
5
15

SUNY-Albany
0
5

SUNY-Stony Brook
0
6

Tennessee State
2
6

Tennessee Tech
0
15

Tennessee-Martin
0
3

Texas - San Antonio
0
1

Texas Arlington
0
4

Texas Southern
0
5

Texas State
1
7

The Citadel
1
8

Towson
4
4

Troy
3
7

U LA-Monroe
5
7

UC Davis
3
7

UNC-Charlotte
0
2

Valparaiso
0
2

Villanova
6
13

VMI
0
11

Wagner
0
3

Weber State
1
11

West Texas A&M
0
2

Western Carolina
0
4

Western Illinois
1
15

Western Kentucky
8
19

William & Mary
4
8

Wofford
1
10

Yale
2
4

Youngstown State
20
19

Redbird 4th & short

August 21st, 2019, 04:33 PM

So essentially looking at the numbers by conference is useless. You'd have to look at the OOC numbers to get any real data.
I don't think eliminating conf head to head games applies here. The selection criteria is determined by trying to identify the top 16 teams each year .. playoff teams who won their 1st game. So this measures how all teams fair against the "top 16" teams as defined. So it measure how many tough games you play (SOS) and then how often you win against the 16 toughest teams. So other than looking at how an NDSU, EWU, SHSU who dominates a conference, I think reflecting all conference games makes sense ... especially since 8 of 11 games are conf, and then most teams play an OOC with an FBS and an FCS patsy of the other 3 .. so no credibile OOC sample size to to work with if you just do OOC. i also think looking at oevr entire history is interesting but useless. Most people want to use recent history as a predictor .. who consistently wins .. that is, reloads and rebuilds best .. so looking at more recent years makes the most sense.

Amster, i would agree, your W-L stats against top teams might be better if you left the top 8 seeds in, even if they lost their 1st game to a play in team. There are some tough playin team winners that would rank top 16 or even top 12 in theory, that could beat some of those top 8 seeds on "any given saturday". I presume you are trying to measure tough games played and tough games won during regular season .. playing a top 8 seed should count as one of those tough games.

That said, it will probably hurt most other conf teams records on average, but it will better reflect their SOS. This is why I counted the # games per year and ranked them,along with win %.

JSUSoutherner

August 21st, 2019, 05:03 PM

I don't think eliminating conf head to head games applies here. The selection criteria is determined by trying to identify the top 16 teams each year .. playoff teams who won their 1st game. So this measures how all teams fair against the "top 16" teams as defined. So it measure how many tough games you play (SOS) and then how often you win against the 16 toughest teams. So other than looking at how an NDSU, EWU, SHSU who dominates a conference, I think reflecting all conference games makes sense ... especially since 8 of 11 games are conf, and then most teams play an OOC with an FBS and an FCS patsy of the other 3 .. so no credibile OOC sample size to to work with if you just do OOC. i also think looking at oevr entire history is interesting but useless. Most people want to use recent history as a predictor .. who consistently wins .. that is, reloads and rebuilds best .. so looking at more recent years makes the most sense.

Amster, i would agree, your W-L stats against top teams might be better if you left the top 8 seeds in, even if they lost their 1st game to a play in team. There are some tough playin team winners that would rank top 16 or even top 12 in theory, that could beat some of those top 8 seeds on "any given saturday". I presume you are trying to measure tough games played and tough games won during regular season .. playing a top 8 seed should count as one of those tough games.

That said, it will probably hurt most other conf teams records on average, but it will better reflect their SOS. This is why I counted the # games per year and ranked them,along with win %.

If you are comparing individual teams, no, conference games don't make a difference, however, when trying to compare conferences as a whole, having conference games in the mix skews the numbers.

For example, you'll notice the MVFC has the most wins, but they also have the most losses which skews the win percentage.

grayghost06

August 21st, 2019, 06:33 PM

If, I am reading this right, it pretty much says, everyone except for NDSU sucks!!!!!!!

There are only five teams with winning records (four currently in the subdivision).
Brown (1-0)
Eastern Washington (18-14)
Georgia Southern (6-5) - Now FBS Sunbelt
NDSU (45-7)
Sam Houston (13-11)

The fact that the Softies are one of the 5 w/ a winning record makes the conclusion questionable.....!xlolx