FCS Playoff Records by Conf: 2011-18

[Redbird 4th & short]

On the MVFC thread, I said I would pull the playoff record results by conference. Let me first point out that I purposely selected 2011-18 because that is period subsequent to the Colonial's domination of FCS landscape for the period 2010 & prior going back to 2003 .. they clearly dominated that era. My point in doing this is to shed some light on fact that MVFC continues to get short end of stick. And the playoff results in the last 8 years bear that out ... even removing NDSU from our results.

My thanks to Clenz for the running start with his sspreadsheet for 2014 & prior.

Below are playoff records for 2011-18 by conference, with MVFC split into NDSU and "not NDSU". I also split the conferences into Pools A & B based on # of games played ... meaning conferences that have recently relied more on autobids would fall into Pool B. I then compare Pool A and B, including further splitting Pool A into Pool A exc NDSU and MVFC.

I would then point on that MVFC excl NDSU has outperformed every other conference over this period with a .553 win %. Note, if I removed MVFC head-to-head playoff games, our win % would improve to about .600 against all othe conferences. Colonial was not far behind at .515, but imagine that number if we removed one of their best teams from their results. So the notion that MVFC is Paul McCartney and the Wings .. well, the Wings are doing quite well on their own since 2011.

But the larger point is how on earth did we only get 3 teams into playoff in 2018 ... the FCS selection committee reverted to their old ways 2013 & prior, when MVFC was routinely screwed out of playoff bids. And if ever a conference deserved 6 teams, who wuoldn't assum MVFC 2014 should have had 6 .. but no Colonial got that distinction in 2018 and went 3-6. Then the other insult in 2018, 2 teams with identical 6-4 D-I records from Southland got bids over a 6-4 MVFC team .. on what planet does that make any sense .. Southland had been the 4th bext conference the last several years .. yet got 3 teams just like MVFC ... 2 of which were 6-4, while ISUb 6-4 stayed home.

Sp never mind NDSU domination, the rest of MVFC flat out has deserved more bids and better seeds. 2018 took a step backwards. Quite simply, our playoff record would tend towards the average if the committee was more objectively considering MVFC teams for playoff bids and giving us more at large bids ... the results below are all the evidence one should need.

Sincerely,

One of The Wings







2011-18
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011


Conference
Pool
Games
W-L%
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L


Big Sky
A
47
0.447
21
26
6
4
2
3
2
4
1
3
2
3
2
4
3
3
3
2


Colonial
A
66
0.515
34
32
3
6
6
4
8
3
3
4
4
4
6
3
1
3
3
5


MVFC
A
78
0.718
56
22
7
2
8
4
7
4
8
4
10
4
5
1
6
2
5
1


MVFC - NDSU
A
31
0.968
30
1
4
0
4
0
2
1
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0


MVFC - not NDSU
A
47
0.553
26
21
3
2
4
4
5
3
4
4
6
4
1
1
2
2
1
1


Southern
A
35
0.429
15
20
1
2
2
3
3
4
2
2
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
3


Southland
A
40
0.500
20
20
1
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
4
2


Big South
B
23
0.478
11
12
1
1
2
2
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
1


MEAC
B
6
0.000
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
0
1
0
1


NEC
B
10
0.200
2
8
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1


OVC
B
23
0.391
9
14
2
2
0
1
0
1
3
2
0
2
4
3
0
1
0
2


Patriot
B
16
0.375
6
10
1
1
0
1
0
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
1


Pioneer
B
8
0.250
2
6
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0


Total

352
0.500
176
176
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
19
19
19
19






























2011-18
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011


Conference Pool
Pool
Games
W-L%
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L


Pool A
A
266
0.549
146
120
18
17
20
17
22
17
17
15
20
15
16
13
16
13
17
13


Pool A exc NDSU
A*
235
0.494
116
119
14
17
16
17
20
16
13
15
16
15
12
13
12
13
13
13


Pool A excl MVFC
A*
188
0.479
90
98
11
15
12
13
15
13
9
11
10
11
11
12
10
11
12
12


Pool B
B
86
0.349
30
56
5
6
3
6
1
6
6
8
3
8
7
10
3
6
2
6


Total exc NDSU
AB*
321
0.455
146
175
19
23
19
23
21
22
19
23
19
23
19
23
15
19
15
19

[Redbird 4th & short]

After I crunched this and the posted results, I was kinda expecting something more like this ....


(https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjbyefNpM3iAhVpiOAKHSMyCgMQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dq8 L86Z8YgeQ&psig=AOvVaw3EnebVfPsjkX2exlddd_8G&ust=1559650372716163)https://thumbs.gfycat.com/IdealScornfulDeer-max-1mb.gif (https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi1yqqwpc3iAhVoQt8KHfm5C0oQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=https%3A%2F%2Fgfycat.com%2Fgifs%2Fsearch%2Fral phi&psig=AOvVaw18pPs5ADGHEb7java_Bgwa&ust=1559650586337273)


BUt I got this instead xdontknowx


https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS3lSDQyWdPYh6Bx1FGoelN5O0pKwUz_ gZyhoxRfWyMqAUBCxg1tg (https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http%3A%2F%2Fimages2.minutemediacdn. com%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fc_fit%2Cf_auto%2Cfl_lossy%2 Cq_auto%2Cw_728%2Fv1555924964%2Fshape%2Fmentalflos s%2Ftheme.jpg%3Fitok%3DGs6xeFrA&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fmentalfloss.com%2Farticle%2 F54324%2F25-things-look-while-watching-24-hour-christmas-story-marathon&docid=f0UFAU8_IkkWMM&tbnid=OAq_YwRooHEicM%3A&vet=10ahUKEwjltr2qpc3iAhUCSa0KHbmPAaIQMwh3KC0wLQ.. i&w=728&h=453&bih=561&biw=1260&q=ralphie%27s%20theme%20paper%20A%2B&ved=0ahUKEwjltr2qpc3iAhUCSa0KHbmPAaIQMwh3KC0wLQ&iact=mrc&uact=8)

[Reign of Terrier]

Below is what I wrote in another thread about something similar to this. Basically, the FCS is not a subdivision run by a single conference, so much as it is run by a handful of teams. As for the MVFC itself, they benefit greatly by playing the lesser OVC teams, sketchy Big Sky teams (see: not EWU), Southland teams that haven't won a playoff game (or have only won 1-2) in the last two decades, or schools like Monmouth who have no business being there. To be fair, the Big Sky also benefits from this. Basically, because of the travel restricts of the subdivision, the CAA and Socon get kind of screwed with first round games (with the exception of the CAA team that draws the Patriot team, usually, but even then that game isn't a given at times) so a lot of edge teams (ETSU, Elon) have a harder time winning playoff games whereas UNI can draw Monmouth and piledrive them into oblivion.

Anyway, here's what I wrote wrt the FCS not being about conferences:

Here are the conferences with the most top 4 finishes since 2010:
MVFC: 12
CAA: 9
Southland: 5
Socon: 3
OVC:1

Now, let's take out the teams that have the most top 4 appearances (NDSU, EWU, SHSU--those three teams account for literally half of the top 4 appearances in the last decade) and rank them. We will also take out Georgia Southern, for obviously reasons:
CAA: 9
MVFC: 4
OVC: 1
Big Sky: 1
Southland: 0
Socon: 0

And really, the discrepancy gets worse if you throw in JMU, New Hampshire, SDSU and in the conversation, which I think you should when talking about top programs in the FCS for obvious reasons. That brings it to:
CAA: 5
MVFC: 2
Big Sky: 1
OVC: 1
Southland: 0
Socon: 0

Now, this is where that the well of comparisons run a little dry. I think it's safe to say that the FCS is conclusively run by NDSU, followed by EWU, SHSU and JMU. Then after that, it's a second tier of New Hampshire and SDSU. After those 6 teams, you have this mass of humanity with teams like Jacksonville State, Kennesaw state, Wofford, Maine, Illinois State, Youngstown State, Montana, and a bunch of CAA teams.

By one measure, you could say Montana is a better team/program than Wofford right now because they made the semifinals in 2011, though Wofford hasn't made the semifinals since 2003. This, in spite of the fact that Montana has won less games in the last decade and has not made the playoffs since 2015. Is Youngstown State or Towson or Delaware a better program right now than Kennesaw State or Wofford right now? Because each of those three programs indeed made it to a championship game, but they haven't won a playoff game or made the playoffs in the last decade other than that outlier, single year.

Is Maine a better program right now than Wofford because Maine made it to the semifinals this past year, even though their coach bailed after the season, while the program hadn't won a playoff game in like the previous decade?

Fact is, we're a subdivision run by teams, not conferences. Also, you could argue that some of those teams benefit from geography (JMU is a better program than SHSU but has less semifinal appearances), but that's another discussion. The top/relevant teams are:
1) NDSU
2) EWU
3) JMU (even though they have less semifinal appearances)
4) SHSU
5) SDSU
6) New Hampshire
7) stalwart quarterfinalists like JSU, Maine, Kennesaw State, Wofford etc. Each has something special about them (Wofford=gets at least a win and only gets boatraced by NDSU, JSU had the magical run, KSU is a wunderkind, etc)


***Admittedly, the above rant is the response of an MVFC troll who keeps popping up on socon threads telling us how terrible the Socon is because we haven't had a team make the semifinals or advance to a certain point in the playoffs. But it illuminates why MVFC teams often have a good record. Take away SDSU and NDSU and the MVFC isn't super duper better than everyone else. Illinois State had a good year a few years ago, but hasn't won a playoff game in a while. UNI has quite a few wins, but they also have had a lot easier draw than any socon team, I would argue.

Basically, if you control for NDSU/SDSU and you look at what the MVFC does, you see just as much noise as signal.

[Reign of Terrier]

The TL;DR of my above comment:

The FCS is run by 6 teams: NDSU, EWU, JMU, SHSU, SDSU, New Hampshire, and then a handful of other teams who are good but haven't had the same level of consistency

The fact that New Hampshire is measurably the 6th best FCS program in the last decade (as measured by consistency, making the playoffs, winning games, and getting to at least the quarterfinals) and the fact that they have more playoff wins in the last decade than Illinois State, yet Illinois State is elevated by the MVFC types because they had one good run in the playoffs a few years ago (that didn't win a championship), kind of demonstrates an MVFC bias by their fans.

Because if you're looking just at wins, yes the MVFC has more of them, but those opponents are a lot easier than most of the CAA and Socon has to deal with, on average, in the first round.

But if you look at final playoff position, (which is kind of noisy, because a team advancing to the quarterfinals instead of exiting in the second round, or advancing to the semis compared to the quarterfinalist in another bracket, can come down to matchups), there's not much special about the MVFC. NDSU and SDSU are the only consistent teams. They inflate the significance of Youngstown State and Illinois State in the playoffs, but you don't see CAA fans doing that with Towson, who also made the FCS championship.

[Model Citizen]

Going back to the SWAC's playoff days, they were oh-and-(?). Right?

[RootinFerDukes]

Great analysis but to really tell the tale, we need to see those results with head to head conference opponent playoff games omitted. The CAA and MVFC routinely have to play other conference teams in the playoffs, often in the QF rounds or earlier. It seems to skew the numbers if you're adding in an 1-1 record with each of those matchups.

[PaladinFan]

Great analysis but to really tell the tale, we need to see those results with head to head conference opponent playoff games omitted. The CAA and MVFC routinely have to play other conference teams in the playoffs, often in the QF rounds or earlier. It seems to skew the numbers if you're adding in an 1-1 record with each of those matchups.

Same with SoCon.

In 2017, Furman beat the #3 team in the CAA on the road in the post season (Elon). They then immediately had to play Wofford.
In 2016, the Citadel beat Charleston Southern and then had to play Wofford.

Could the SoCon have had a deeper run in the post season if they didn't have to play their own conference in the second round? Probably.

[PaladinFan]

The TL;DR of my above comment:

The FCS is run by 6 teams: NDSU, EWU, JMU, SHSU, SDSU, New Hampshire, and then a handful of other teams who are good but haven't had the same level of consistency

The fact that New Hampshire is measurably the 6th best FCS program in the last decade (as measured by consistency, making the playoffs, winning games, and getting to at least the quarterfinals) and the fact that they have more playoff wins in the last decade than Illinois State, yet Illinois State is elevated by the MVFC types because they had one good run in the playoffs a few years ago (that didn't win a championship), kind of demonstrates an MVFC bias by their fans.

Because if you're looking just at wins, yes the MVFC has more of them, but those opponents are a lot easier than most of the CAA and Socon has to deal with, on average, in the first round.

But if you look at final playoff position, (which is kind of noisy, because a team advancing to the quarterfinals instead of exiting in the second round, or advancing to the semis compared to the quarterfinalist in another bracket, can come down to matchups), there's not much special about the MVFC. NDSU and SDSU are the only consistent teams. They inflate the significance of Youngstown State and Illinois State in the playoffs, but you don't see CAA fans doing that with Towson, who also made the FCS championship.

I haven't put a ton of thought in this, but we may well get to the point where the playoffs are going to spit out essentially the same matchups every season.

It won't happen every year, but it seems pretty likely that we are going to continue to see some combination of Elon v. SoCon v. JSU v. SoCon v. Kennesaw State v. SoCon. Since 2016, SoCon teams have played 8 of 10 first and second round contests against either (1) the BigSouth Champ (CSU/KSU), (2) JSU, (3) Elon, or (4) another SoCon team.

I'm not sure it's great for FCS football to essentially see the same post season matchups every year.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'm just extremely skeptical of the MVFC chest-beating (as is evident by my posting habits). The subtext of the argument of the OP is that 1) the playoff committee should give preference to MVFC teams because 2) they win more playoff games.

But I'll be honest, I really don't care about what your 3rd, 4th or 5th team does in the first round of the playoffs, which is really where the meat of the argument that the MVFC has depth comes from. Because the pattern is essentially "beat a team in the first round, lose to a good team in the second." And well...if you have a certain amount of teams in the field, as a matter of raw probability you'll likely have most advance.

For example, Wofford's playoff losses have come to:
2003: National champion (#2 seed)
2007: semifinalist
2008: semifinalist (#1 seed)
2010: semifinalist
2011: quarterfinalist (#2 in some polls, #5 seed)
2012: National Champion (#1 seed)
2016: national runner up
2017: National Champion (#2 seed)
2018: Quarterfinalist (#4 seed)

(notes: only 2007 and 2010 were home games, for whatever that's worth)

Now, you can uncharitably look at this and say "well, Wofford just chokes, but that's not the entire story. 2017 (NDSU) and 2003 (Delaware) were the only games not in doubt within the last 5 minutes. The point is, given Wofford's history of strong performances in the playoffs, many of them coming as at-large teams (2008, 2010, 2011, 2012,2016) I have a hard time believing that the playoff selection committee should operate under the heuristic that the 4th or 5th place MVFC team has more of a place in the playoffs than the third place socon team just because they play in a tougher conference and on occasion they win a playoff game.

Really, if you look at the performances of the 4th and 5th place MVFC team any given year, and how they perform in the playoffs, I'm skeptical that the opponents that eliminate them (sans NDSU) are equally or even more impressive.

[IBleedYellow]

The fact we have to remove a team just to make one conference fall back into the pack is....well it's a thing.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Some good points, and a couple I would dispute. Not sure there is schedule advantage for MVFC given regional playoff pairings .. we almost never get paired with easy autobids like those from Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC .. Pioneer usually goes to Big Sky and the others usually go to CAA.

Then there is also the home/away scheduling, whihc I know is a function of bid process for play in games. But since going to 24 team format in 2013-17, Colonial had played 11 "play in" games .. every one of them at home .. until 2018, when they got 6 teams, 4 had play in games, of which 2 had to play on road for first time ... both losses. In same time frame 2013-17, MVFC played in 12 "play in" games .. just 5 at home, and 7 on road. of the 5 at home, 4 were UNI ... we went 8-4 despite playing on road for 7 of the 12 and getting only 2 weak autobids to feast on.

- Colonial drew plenty of weak autobids during this timeframe: Morgan St, St Francis, NC A&T, CCSU, Lehigh, Duquense, Lafayette

- MVFC only drew 2 weak autobids, Dayton and Monmouth .. I believe all other play in games were against at large bids.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The fact we have to remove a team just to make one conference fall back into the pack is....well it's a thing.
this ... and the point of my email was that our playoff record, excl NDSU, should demonstrate that we have deserved more bids than we've gotten since 2011 ... I think fact that we still lead the pack in win % without the team that went 30-1 from 2011-18, is pretty compelling. Furthermore, if I did home/away analysis and removed all the conf head-to-head, it is even more favorable to MVFC. Just noting my recent post about CAA vs MVFC "play in" games from 2013-17 (24 team format), Colonial had 11 play in games, all at home and at least half against marginal/weak autobids. While MVFC played 12 play in games, 7 on the road, and only 2 against marginal auto-bid teams, and went 8-4 in these play in games, none being NDSU. But the presumption/perception of some is that "The Wings" have better record because we play weaker playoff schedule ... see my other post, that's just not true.

[POD Knows]

yet still lead the pack in win % without the team that went 30-1 from 2011-18 ... if I did home/away analysis and removed all the conf head-to-head, it is even more favorable to MVFC. Just noting my recent post about CAA vs MVFC "play in" games from 2013-17 (24 team format), Colonial had 11 play in games, all at home and at least half against marginal/weak autobids. While MVFC played 12 play in games, 7 on the road, and only 2 against marginal auto-bid teams, and went 8-4 in these play in games, none being NDSU. But the presumption/perception of some is that "The Wings" have better record because we play weaker playoff schedule ... see my other post, that's just not true.xhurrayx

[SCPALADIN]

Same with SoCon.

In 2017, Furman beat the #3 team in the CAA on the road in the post season (Elon). They then immediately had to play Wofford.
In 2016, the Citadel beat Charleston Southern and then had to play Wofford.

Could the SoCon have had a deeper run in the post season if they didn't have to play their own conference in the second round? Probably.

...why I have a love hate relationship with the Regionalization of the bracket. I love that I have a better chance of attending the first two rounds. I hate that it's fairly certain I'll be watching at least one rematch.

[RootinFerDukes]

The fact we have to remove a team just to make one conference fall back into the pack is....well it's a thing.

But doesn’t it clearly support that the MVFC is in fact Paul McCartney and Wings? I’d say it’s crystal clear.

[RootinFerDukes]

- MVFC only drew 2 weak autobids, Dayton and Monmouth .. I believe all other play in games were against at large bids.

Just because UNI struggled against Lamar or whoever they played doesn’t mean they were good. That was a cupcake.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Just because UNI struggled against Lamar or whoever they played doesn’t mean they were good. That was a cupcake.
agree Lamar was a weak "at large" bid, not as weak as Incarnate Word or ETSU ... but weak at large for sure, though they had won 6 straight.

[DFW HOYA]

Some good points, and a couple I would dispute. Not sure there is schedule advantage for MVFC given regional playoff pairings .. we almost never get paired with easy autobids like those from Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC .. Pioneer usually goes to Big Sky and the others usually go to CAA..

How many games does the Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC, et al. get to host vs. the MVFC?

[caribbeanhen]

On the MVFC thread, I said I would pull the playoff record results by conference. Let me first point out that I purposely selected 2011-18 because that is period subsequent to the Colonial's domination of FCS landscape for the period 2010 & prior going back to 2003 .. they clearly dominated that era. My point in doing this is to shed some light on fact that MVFC continues to get short end of stick. And the playoff results in the last 8 years bear that out ... even removing NDSU from our results.

My thanks to Clenz for the running start with his sspreadsheet for 2014 & prior.

Below are playoff records for 2011-18 by conference, with MVFC split into NDSU and "not NDSU". I also split the conferences into Pools A & B based on # of games played ... meaning conferences that have recently relied more on autobids would fall into Pool B. I then compare Pool A and B, including further splitting Pool A into Pool A exc NDSU and MVFC.

I would then point on that MVFC excl NDSU has outperformed every other conference over this period with a .553 win %. Note, if I removed MVFC head-to-head playoff games, our win % would improve to about .600 against all othe conferences. Colonial was not far behind at .515, but imagine that number if we removed one of their best teams from their results. So the notion that MVFC is Paul McCartney and the Wings .. well, the Wings are doing quite well on their own since 2011.

But the larger point is how on earth did we only get 3 teams into playoff in 2018 ... the FCS selection committee reverted to their old ways 2013 & prior, when MVFC was routinely screwed out of playoff bids. And if ever a conference deserved 6 teams, who wuoldn't assum MVFC 2014 should have had 6 .. but no Colonial got that distinction in 2018 and went 3-6. Then the other insult in 2018, 2 teams with identical 6-4 D-I records from Southland got bids over a 6-4 MVFC team .. on what planet does that make any sense .. Southland had been the 4th bext conference the last several years .. yet got 3 teams just like MVFC ... 2 of which were 6-4, while ISUb 6-4 stayed home.

Sp never mind NDSU domination, the rest of MVFC flat out has deserved more bids and better seeds. 2018 took a step backwards. Quite simply, our playoff record would tend towards the average if the committee was more objectively considering MVFC teams for playoff bids and giving us more at large bids ... the results below are all the evidence one should need.

Sincerely,

One of The Wings







2011-18
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011


Conference
Pool
Games
W-L%
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L


Big Sky
A
47
0.447
21
26
6
4
2
3
2
4
1
3
2
3
2
4
3
3
3
2


Colonial
A
66
0.515
34
32
3
6
6
4
8
3
3
4
4
4
6
3
1
3
3
5


MVFC
A
78
0.718
56
22
7
2
8
4
7
4
8
4
10
4
5
1
6
2
5
1


MVFC - NDSU
A
31
0.968
30
1
4
0
4
0
2
1
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0
4
0


MVFC - not NDSU
A
47
0.553
26
21
3
2
4
4
5
3
4
4
6
4
1
1
2
2
1
1


Southern
A
35
0.429
15
20
1
2
2
3
3
4
2
2
1
1
1
2
3
3
2
3


Southland
A
40
0.500
20
20
1
3
2
3
2
2
3
2
3
3
2
3
3
2
4
2


Big South
B
23
0.478
11
12
1
1
2
2
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
1


MEAC
B
6
0.000
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
2
0
1
0
1


NEC
B
10
0.200
2
8
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
0
1


OVC
B
23
0.391
9
14
2
2
0
1
0
1
3
2
0
2
4
3
0
1
0
2


Patriot
B
16
0.375
6
10
1
1
0
1
0
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
0
1
1
1


Pioneer
B
8
0.250
2
6
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
0


Total

352
0.500
176
176
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
19
19
19
19






























2011-18
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011


Conference Pool
Pool
Games
W-L%
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L


Pool A
A
266
0.549
146
120
18
17
20
17
22
17
17
15
20
15
16
13
16
13
17
13


Pool A exc NDSU
A*
235
0.494
116
119
14
17
16
17
20
16
13
15
16
15
12
13
12
13
13
13


Pool A excl MVFC
A*
188
0.479
90
98
11
15
12
13
15
13
9
11
10
11
11
12
10
11
12
12


Pool B
B
86
0.349
30
56
5
6
3
6
1
6
6
8
3
8
7
10
3
6
2
6


Total exc NDSU
AB*
321
0.455
146
175
19
23
19
23
21
22
19
23
19
23
19
23
15
19
15
19




I saw that....

but the truth of the matter remains

The Bison are not only the Paul McCartney of the MVFC, but the rest of FCS as well

Wings are just a bunch of no names no matter how good they might of been, they will always play in the shadow of the Living Ledgend....:)

[Redbird 4th & short]

How many games does the Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC, et al. get to host vs. the MVFC?

You realize you are putting the ball on a tee for me .. right ?

I believe the only playoff game MVFC ever played against a team from those weak auto bid conferences was 2015 when WIU had to travel to Dayton. But no other playoff games were ever played. NEC, Patriot, and MEAC usually go on road and often against Colonial as my previous post documented. Pioneer usually travels to Big Sky. Only 1 game played by MCFV against those conferences for 2011-18 period.. and WIU had to play at Dayton.

[DEX]

Some good points, and a couple I would dispute. Not sure there is schedule advantage for MVFC given regional playoff pairings .. we almost never get paired with easy autobids like those from Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC .. Pioneer usually goes to Big Sky and the others usually go to CAA.

Then there is also the home/away scheduling, whihc I know is a function of bid process for play in games. But since going to 24 team format in 2013-17, Colonial had played 11 "play in" games .. every one of them at home .. until 2018, when they got 6 teams, 4 had play in games, of which 2 had to play on road for first time ... both losses. In same time frame 2013-17, MVFC played in 12 "play in" games .. just 5 at home, and 7 on road. of the 5 at home, 4 were UNI ... we went 8-4 despite playing on road for 7 of the 12 and getting only 2 weak autobids to feast on.

- Colonial drew plenty of weak autobids during this timeframe: Morgan St, St Francis, NC A&T, CCSU, Lehigh, Duquense, Lafayette

- MVFC only drew 2 weak autobids, Dayton and Monmouth .. I believe all other play in games were against at large bids.



Small correction. NC A&T was an at-large selection in 2016.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Small correction. NC A&T was an at-large selection in 2016.

good catch, I should have remembered that ... though IMO (and already hotly debated) it was highly questionable that they got a bid as 2nd best MEAC team that year .. look at MEAC's record in playoffs over the 8 years. I know some don't agree ... not trying to pick a fight, just making a different point.

I believe you guys lost a lot of seniors, how are you guys doing on recruitment front ... HS and transfers ?

[ST_Lawson]

this ... and the point of my email was that our playoff record, excl NDSU, should demonstrate that we have deserved more bids than we've gotten since 2011 ... I think fact that we still lead the pack in win % without the team that went 30-1 from 2011-18, is pretty compelling. Furthermore, if I did home/away analysis and removed all the conf head-to-head, it is even more favorable to MVFC. Just noting my recent post about CAA vs MVFC "play in" games from 2013-17 (24 team format), Colonial had 11 play in games, all at home and at least half against marginal/weak autobids. While MVFC played 12 play in games, 7 on the road, and only 2 against marginal auto-bid teams, and went 8-4 in these play in games, none being NDSU. But the presumption/perception of some is that "The Wings" have better record because we play weaker playoff schedule ... see my other post, that's just not true.

Motion to change the MVFC nickname from "Paul McCartney and Wings" to the "Traveling Wilburys". NDSU can be one of the greatest songwriters of all time (Bob Dylan), but the rest of the group aren't slouches either...George Harrison, Roy Orbison, Tom Petty, Jeff Lynne.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Motion to change the MVFC nickname from "Paul McCartney and Wings" to the "Traveling Wilburys". NDSU can be one of the greatest songwriters of all time (Bob Dylan), but the rest of the group aren't slouches either...George Harrison, Roy Orbison, Tom Petty, Jeff Lynne.

I second this motion .. but only if ISUr gets to be Tom Petty .. rest in piece, while his legendary voice and music lives on !!! xbowx

If he's already taken, then we want Roy Orbison. xcoolx

[walliver]

I'm not sure how playoff wins in 2011 should have any bearing on at-large selections in 2018.

Should Vanderbilt and Wake Forest get New Year's Day bowl selections because their conferences routinely compete for the CFP Championship?

The numbers are what they are and if fans want to claim bragging rights from them that is fine. The numbers, however, do not support lowering at-large standards for MVFC teams on Selection Sunday.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I'm not sure how playoff wins in 2011 should have any bearing on at-large selections in 2018.

Should Vanderbilt and Wake Forest get New Year's Day bowl selections because their conferences routinely compete for the CFP Championship?

The numbers are what they are and if fans want to claim bragging rights from them that is fine. The numbers, however, do not support lowering at-large standards for MVFC teams on Selection Sunday.
But I posted results from 2011-18, not just 2011 .. wihch was intending to make the point that 7-4 (or 6-4, which was up for debate in 2018) in MVFC is more qualifying of at large bid (on average) than same record in Colonial, or Big Sky, or in the case of 2018 selections, Southland. Certainly, the body of data from 2011-18 makes it pretty clear. And it has nothing to do with bragging rights .. the point of the analysis and post was to say, MVFC deserves more bids and better seeds due things like SOS and playoff record. Using the Massey Composite of 35+ polls going back to 2011 further supports this notion as well .. yet here we sit in 2018 .. our 6-4 stays home .. while 3 other 6-4 teams got in with at large bids. We get 3 teams, same as Southland. The playoff record for MVFC exlc NDSU over the last 8 years is compelling .. not sure how it can be viewed any other way than I am viewing. Adding to the record, how much more often MVFC teams have to win on road, despite being strongest conference.

[Reign of Terrier]

to reiterate what I've already posted, it's less predictive to categorize teams by conference when evaluating the strength of the draw than it is to look at the actual team.

In concrete terms, it's kind of a bigger deal if you draw JMU or New Hampshire in the playoffs as opposed to William & Mary or Albany or Elon. We can categorize all of these teams as "CAA" but when you look at their playoff success, it's not really helpful to look at the conference affiliation and subsequently draw the heuristic of "hard game"

Which is an easier draw: Jacksonville State or generic OVC team?
NDSU/SDSU/UNI or Indiana State or Western Illinois or Missouri State or South Dakota?
Wofford or any other Socon team?
Sam Houston State/Arkansas State or another SLC team?
Kennesaw State or anyone else in the Big South?

MVFC folks like to chest beat about how tough their conference is in these games, but they're actually few and far between. Yes, the top 3 MVFC teams deserve a playoff spot (usually SDSU, NDSU and one of UNI/Illinois State/YSU one year). But 4 and 5? Let's look at the playoff prospects of the 3rd-5th place MVFC team, when they make the playoffs since 2012 (when the conference started regularly getting 3+ teams in the playoffs.

2012:
Illinois State went 1-1 with a win against App State (solid win btw), lost to EWU

2013: YSU lost 3 straight and didn't make the playoffs, MVFC only got 2

2014: MVFC got 5 in:
3rd place UNI: beat Stephen F. Austin, got cannibalized by ISU-r (worth noting they lost by 20)
4th place SDSU: beat Montana State, got cannibalized by NDSU
5th place ISU: lost to Chattanooga in the first round
Overall: 2-3

2015:
3rd place UNI: beat Eastern Illinois, Portland State, got cannibalized by NDSU
4th place SDSU: lost to Montana
5th place Western Illinois: beat Dayton in the first round, got cannibalized by Illinois State (again, 17 point loss)
Overall: 3-3

2016:
3rd place YSU: beat JSU, Samford, Wofford, EWU, lost to JMU
4th place ISU: lost to UCA
Overall 4-2

2017:
3rd place UNI: beat Monmouth, cannibalized by SDSU (by 15)
4th place WIU: lost to Weber State
5th place South Dakota: beat Nicholls State, lost to SHSU
Overall: 2-3

2018:
3rd place UNI: beat Lamar, lost to UC Davis
overall 1-1

So, let's break this down further:

The third through fifth place MVFC team are 13-13 in the playoffs since 2012.

The third place team is 10-6 in the playoffs since 2012. That's really good! But I don't think anyone is disputing that the MVFC deserves 3 teams in the playoffs. What's interesting is that when the third place plays the second place team, they actually get destroyed (relatively speaking). This doesn't really speak to the depth of the MVFC.

What's even more interesting is that the 4th and 5th place MVFC teams are 3-7 in the playoffs since 2012. The three wins are against Nicholls State, Dayton, and Montana State. Dayton was a 17 point win by Western Illinois, but the Nicholls State/Montana State games weren't blow outs.

It's worth mentioning that Nicholls State hasn't beaten a full scholarship team in the playoffs since 1986, Dayton has only played in one playoff game (the loss to Western Illinois), and Montana State has only won 4 playoff games since they won their championship in 1984.

So the TL;DR
You can advocate for the 4th and fifth placed MVFC to get preferential treatment all day, but the evidence we have thus far is that they don't make sufficient noise to justify such preferential treatment. Yes, they have 3 wins in the last decade or so, but they're against teams on equal or lesser footing.

[Reign of Terrier]

To condense my above post (again):

The MVFC will always have a good case for their third place team getting into the field because they regularly compete, usually only losing to an MVFC team or a championship team.

But if you look at their 4th and 5th place team they are really unimpressive, only beating Nicholls State (who hasn't beaten a fully scholarshipped team in the playoffs since the 1980s), pioneer league Dayton, and Montana State, which has been pretty medicore in terms of sustained success.

No one is going to contest that the third place MVFC should get a shot, but if you're going to claim that the fourth and fifth place MVFC team deserves special treatment over third place teams in other conference you have to demonstrate that they will, with high certainty, perform better. Even if they have won more games, the weak sample quality isn't really convincing.

[Bisonoline]

To condense my above post (again):

The MVFC will always have a good case for their third place team getting into the field because they regularly compete, usually only losing to an MVFC team or a championship team.

But if you look at their 4th and 5th place team they are really unimpressive, only beating Nicholls State (who hasn't beaten a fully scholarshipped team in the playoffs since the 1980s), pioneer league Dayton, and Montana State, which has been pretty medicore in terms of sustained success.

No one is going to contest that the third place MVFC should get a shot, but if you're going to claim that the fourth and fifth place MVFC team deserves special treatment over third place teams in other conference you have to demonstrate that they will, with high certainty, perform better. Even if they have won more games, the weak sample quality isn't really convincing.

Who claimed the above????

[katss07]

Some good points, and a couple I would dispute. Not sure there is schedule advantage for MVFC given regional playoff pairings .. we almost never get paired with easy autobids like those from Pioneer, NEC, Patriot, MEAC .. Pioneer usually goes to Big Sky and the others usually go to CAA.

Then there is also the home/away scheduling, whihc I know is a function of bid process for play in games. But since going to 24 team format in 2013-17, Colonial had played 11 "play in" games .. every one of them at home .. until 2018, when they got 6 teams, 4 had play in games, of which 2 had to play on road for first time ... both losses. In same time frame 2013-17, MVFC played in 12 "play in" games .. just 5 at home, and 7 on road. of the 5 at home, 4 were UNI ... we went 8-4 despite playing on road for 7 of the 12 and getting only 2 weak autobids to feast on.

- Colonial drew plenty of weak autobids during this timeframe: Morgan St, St Francis, NC A&T, CCSU, Lehigh, Duquense, Lafayette

- MVFC only drew 2 weak autobids, Dayton and Monmouth .. I believe all other play in games were against at large bids.
Not to be too nitpicky, but if you’re referring to Monmouth in 2017, they were an at-large team.

[Redbird 4th & short]

To condense my above post (again):

The MVFC will always have a good case for their third place team getting into the field because they regularly compete, usually only losing to an MVFC team or a championship team.

But if you look at their 4th and 5th place team they are really unimpressive, only beating Nicholls State (who hasn't beaten a fully scholarshipped team in the playoffs since the 1980s), pioneer league Dayton, and Montana State, which has been pretty medicore in terms of sustained success.

No one is going to contest that the third place MVFC should get a shot, but if you're going to claim that the fourth and fifth place MVFC team deserves special treatment over third place teams in other conference you have to demonstrate that they will, with high certainty, perform better. Even if they have won more games, the weak sample quality isn't really convincing.
You needed to do a little more homework before making this statement.

In 2017, 5th place USD beat 3rd place Nicholls St by 7 on road

In 2017, 4th place WIU lost to 1st place Weber St by 2 on road .. same Weber St who made it round of 8 before losing by 3 at JMU.

In 2016, tied for 4th/5th place ISUr lost to 2nd place 9-2 Southland team (UCA) by 7 on road .. note, we had dominated and led by 10 after 3 qtrs, but gave them 10 quick flluke points (blocked punt for TD, and onside kick recovered inside our 40) in Q4 and then eventually lost in last minute.

In 2015, 5th place WIU beat 1st place 10-1 Pioneer team (Dayton) by 17 on road.

In 2015, 4th place UNI beat 2nd place 7-4 OVC team (EIU) by 36 at home

In 2015, 4th place UNI beat 2nd place 9-2 Big Sky team (Port St) by 12 on road

In 2014, 5th place ISUb beat 2nd place 8-4 OVC team (EKU) by 20 on road.

In 2014, 4th place SDSU beat 3rd place 8-4 Big Sky team (Montana) by 7 on road.

In 2012, 3rd place ISUr beat 1st place Southern team (App St) by 1 on road

So I just listed all 9 games since 2011 where MVFC had a 4th or 5th place teams competing in playoffs We went 7-2, despite playing 8 of 9 on road ... 8 of 9 on road !! And only 1 of 9 was against a weak autobid, Dayton. Colonial never had it this tough.

But you're not impressed ? Our worst bids went 7-2 and got to host just 1 home game and just 1 weak autobid .. both losses very competitive and on road ... seriously ???

I had to throw in my ISUr 2012 win, because their my Redbirds and because we were tied for 3rd-5th with 2 other teams .... but we got the bid, the other 2 stayed home.

What more evidence do you need before you accept what all the data and results are saying ???

[DEX]

good catch, I should have remembered that ... though IMO (and already hotly debated) it was highly questionable that they got a bid as 2nd best MEAC team that year .. look at MEAC's record in playoffs over the 8 years. I know some don't agree ... not trying to pick a fight, just making a different point.

I believe you guys lost a lot of seniors, how are you guys doing on recruitment front ... HS and transfers ?

You won't get any argument from me as I don't think we deserved an at large bid in 2016 either. Until our conference starts winning more out of conference games it would be very rare exception where I'd agree with MEAC receiving an at large bid.

After losing 15 seniors from last season I'd say we are definitely in rebuild mode. Lots of talent at skill positions but thin in the trenches. I'm hoping we get a few transfers over the summer.

[Reign of Terrier]

Who claimed the above????

It's an implicit claim. The argument is that the MVFC should get more preference with the playoff committee. No one is arguing that the 3rd place MVFC team shouldn't, almost by default, get strong consideration (because they have every year). But it's the fourth and fifth place team that are always controversial.


You needed to do a little more homework before making this statement.

In 2017, 5th place USD beat 3rd place Nicholls St by 7 on road

In 2017, 4th place WIU lost to 1st place Weber St by 2 on road .. same Weber St who made it round of 8 before losing by 3 at JMU.

In 2016, tied for 4th/5th place ISUr lost to 2nd place 9-2 Southland team (UCA) by 7 on road .. note, we had dominated and led by 10 after 3 qtrs, but gave them 10 quick flluke points (blocked punt for TD, and onside kick recovered inside our 40) in Q4 and then eventually lost in last minute.

In 2015, 5th place WIU beat 1st place 10-1 Pioneer team (Dayton) by 17 on road.

In 2015, 4th place UNI beat 2nd place 7-4 OVC team (EIU) by 36 at home

In 2015, 4th place UNI beat 2nd place 9-2 Big Sky team (Port St) by 12 on road

In 2014, 5th place ISUb beat 2nd place 8-4 OVC team (EKU) by 20 on road.

In 2014, 4th place SDSU beat 3rd place 8-4 Big Sky team (Montana) by 7 on road.

In 2012, 3rd place ISUr beat 1st place Southern team (App St) by 1 on road

So I just listed all 9 games since 2011 where MVFC had a 4th or 5th place teams competing in playoffs We went 7-2, despite playing 8 of 9 on road ... 8 of 9 on road !! And only 1 of 9 was against a weak autobid, Dayton. Colonial never had it this tough.

But you're not impressed ? Our worst bids went 7-2 and got to host just 1 home game and just 1 weak autobid .. both losses very competitive and on road ... seriously ???

I had to throw in my ISUr 2012 win, because their my Redbirds and because we were tied for 3rd-5th with 2 other teams .... but we got the bid, the other 2 stayed home.

What more evidence do you need before you accept what all the data and results are saying ???

I did my homework. MVFC fans are the only ones who inflate the significance of near misses more than any other fan on here. I mean, I would too if my only claim to relevance is that I play in the same conference as NDSU. You don't see me inflating the significance of Wofford taking Youngstown State to OT (Wofford was third in the Socon that year). The fact is, the fourth and fifth place can say look at our near miss in the first place because they're allowed in the field in the first place. But they still lose.

Your data is cherrypicked and factually wrong in place. It also misses my point in the first place. 2012 App State was not the first place team in the Socon. They were a 3 way tie and had some pretty low moments. Calling them "first place" is kind of misleading. Wofford beat them by 10. In 2014, SDSU did not beat Montana, they beat Montana State. Again, not an impressive victory compared to other stalwart FCS playoff members. It's also a little misleading to call UNI the fourth best MVFC team, when they were tied for 3rd and the other two in that position didn't perform too well in the playoff. I recognize that the playoff committee or any fan in general can't make the distinction while selecting a team for a spot, but the point is, after the third team is selected, you can pretty much bank on the fourth and fifth place team sucking unless they get a good draw, like Dayton.

There is literally nothing impressive about the 4th and 5th best MVFC team barely losing to anyone (I can't reiterate that enough), beating Nicholls State (who again, hasn't beaten a fully scholarshiped team in the playoffs since the late 1980s), a scholarshipless Pioneer team (San Diego is the only one with a W), or ANY OVC team that isn't Jacksonville State (Outside of JSU, the OVC has like 3 playoff wins in the last 25 years, and 2 of them were against another OVC team and Butler.) . A 3-way-tie-for-second in the Big Sky Montana State team isn't unimpressive, but it's not a world-beater.


So basically, you really haven't rebutted by original claim (that the fourth and fifth team performance isn't that impressive), except randomly threw in a 3rd place game (App State) and reframe UNI in a more positive light that misses the point.

The fourth and fifth place MVFC team is 4-7 in the playoffs (I missed the ISU-B win for some reason). I'm actually willing to bet that at least the CAA does better, but I don't think they regularly get that many in anyway.

It's totally relevant that only one of the wins the fourth/five place MVFC teams has come against is against a team with more than one playoff win in the last 25 years. You want us to give you a participation trophy for losing to teams, but don't afford that privilege to other conference's 3-4th place teams. We can play the ifs and buts game with literally every "power" conference. Meanwhile, you think we should be impressed with the fourth/fifth place team beating up the little sisters of the poor. I don't get it.

[Reign of Terrier]

To be honest, there's actually a really good case to be made that no conference should have 5 teams in the playoffs. The reason why is pretty simply: they don't win. No conference has gotten 5 teams in and also had all five of those teams win a game that arguably another 3rd or 4th place team could have won.

Granted, you could say that argument means that we should abolish autobids, but that misses the point. The point is, there's limited space, and if you're the committee, you want the best sample of teams from each conference. The CAA and the MVFC have gotten more than 4 teams in multiple times, and some of them have won a game, but they're against teams like San Diego and OVC teams that have no business getting a bid, and teams that are questionable like Nicholls.

Put another way, I think the CAA and MVFC have a strong case for 4 teams every year as a baseline, the Socon and Big Sky 3, the Southland 2. Everyone else is just 1. When I say that, I mean that we can reasonably expect that 5th CAA/MVFC team to perform as well in the playoffs as well as the 4th Socon team and the 3rd Southland team. That's not to say that it's necessarily the fourth place CAA/MVFC team has a better chance of making a run than the 5th place CAA/MVFC (or 4th place socon team, etc) because there are lots of instances where the fourth place team doesn't advance as far as the fifth place team.

If I'm honest, I think the CAA has a stronger claim to a fourth or even fifth place team getting in historically than the MVFC. Yes, I know they all collectively laid an egg this year, but the CAA's 4th-6th place teams are like 10-12 in the playoffs, which is pretty phenomenal.

[Redbird 4th & short]

It's an implicit claim. The argument is that the MVFC should get more preference with the playoff committee. No one is arguing that the 3rd place MVFC team shouldn't, almost by default, get strong consideration (because they have every year). But it's the fourth and fifth place team that are always controversial.



I did my homework. MVFC fans are the only ones who inflate the significance of near misses more than any other fan on here. I mean, I would too if my only claim to relevance is that I play in the same conference as NDSU. You don't see me inflating the significance of Wofford taking Youngstown State to OT (Wofford was third in the Socon that year). The fact is, the fourth and fifth place can say look at our near miss in the first place because they're allowed in the field in the first place. But they still lose.

Your data is cherrypicked and factually wrong in place. It also misses my point in the first place. 2012 App State was not the first place team in the Socon. They were a 3 way tie and had some pretty low moments. Calling them "first place" is kind of misleading. Wofford beat them by 10. In 2014, SDSU did not beat Montana, they beat Montana State. Again, not an impressive victory compared to other stalwart FCS playoff members. It's also a little misleading to call UNI the fourth best MVFC team, when they were tied for 3rd and the other two in that position didn't perform too well in the playoff. I recognize that the playoff committee or any fan in general can't make the distinction while selecting a team for a spot, but the point is, after the third team is selected, you can pretty much bank on the fourth and fifth place team sucking unless they get a good draw, like Dayton.

There is literally nothing impressive about the 4th and 5th best MVFC team barely losing to anyone (I can't reiterate that enough), beating Nicholls State (who again, hasn't beaten a fully scholarshiped team in the playoffs since the late 1980s), a scholarshipless Pioneer team (San Diego is the only one with a W), or ANY OVC team that isn't Jacksonville State (Outside of JSU, the OVC has like 3 playoff wins in the last 25 years, and 2 of them were against another OVC team and Butler.) . A 3-way-tie-for-second in the Big Sky Montana State team isn't unimpressive, but it's not a world-beater.


So basically, you really haven't rebutted by original claim (that the fourth and fifth team performance isn't that impressive), except randomly threw in a 3rd place game (App State) and reframe UNI in a more positive light that misses the point.

The fourth and fifth place MVFC team is 4-7 in the playoffs (I missed the ISU-B win for some reason). I'm actually willing to bet that at least the CAA does better, but I don't think they regularly get that many in anyway.

It's totally relevant that only one of the wins the fourth/five place MVFC teams has come against is against a team with more than one playoff win in the last 25 years. You want us to give you a participation trophy for losing to teams, but don't afford that privilege to other conference's 3-4th place teams. We can play the ifs and buts game with literally every "power" conference. Meanwhile, you think we should be impressed with the fourth/fifth place team beating up the little sisters of the poor. I don't get it.
youre in credible .. you make a definitive mis-statement, I disprove it with overwhelming evidence, and you counter with more BS.
But yes, those teams and games I cited, all eventually lost .. just like every other team not named NDSU .. so no I didn't count every game to disprove your point .. all teams except the Champion eventually lose. I cited 7 examples of playin or 1st round games that disprove your assertion. The simple point being, 4th and 5th place teams from MVFC regular win more than they lose over 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams from other conferences despite playing on road. And yes, like all other teams, they evetually lose.

Repeating your 2 original statements verbatim:

No one is going to contest that the third place MVFC should get a shot, but if you're going to claim that the fourth and fifth place MVFC team deserves special treatment over third place teams in other conference you have to demonstrate that they will, with high certainty, perform better. Even if they have won more games, the weak sample quality isn't really convincing.

"But if you look at their 4th and 5th place team they are really unimpressive, only beating Nicholls State (who hasn't beaten a fully scholarshipped team in the playoffs since the 1980s), pioneer league Dayton, and Montana State, which has been pretty medicore in terms of sustained success.

In addition to the 7-2 record already cited .... also noting, 3rd place YSU beat 3 teams who finished higher in their conferences 2 of which were top 3 seeds on road ... 1st place JSU (3rd seed) on road, 2nd place Wofford at home, 1st place EWU (2nd seed) on road.

The data points just keep piling up .... ignore away ...

[Redbird 4th & short]

To be honest, there's actually a really good case to be made that no conference should have 5 teams in the playoffs. The reason why is pretty simply: they don't win. No conference has gotten 5 teams in and also had all five of those teams win a game.

Granted, you could say that argument means that we should abolish autobids, but that misses the point. The point is, there's limited space, and if you're the committee, you want the best sample of teams from each conference. The CAA and the MVFC have gotten more than 4 teams in multiple times, and some of them have won a game, but they're against teams like San Diego and OVC teams that have no business getting a bid, and teams that are questionable like Nicholls.

Put another way, I think the CAA and MVFC have a strong case for 4 teams every year as a baseline, the Socon and Big Sky 3, the Southland 2. Everyone else is just 1. When I say that, I mean that we can reasonably expect that 5th CAA/MVFC team to perform as well in the playoffs as well as the 4th Socon team and the 3rd Southland team. That's not to say that it's necessarily the fourth place CAA/MVFC team has a better chance of making a run than the 5th place CAA/MVFC (or 4th place socon team, etc) because there are lots of instances where the fourth place team doesn't advance as far as the fifth place team.

If I'm honest, I think the CAA has a stronger claim to a fourth or even fifth place team getting in historically than the MVFC. Yes, I know they all collectively laid an egg this year, but the CAA's 4th-6th place teams are like 10-12 in the playoffs, which is pretty phenomenal.

dude .. again, you need to check your facts ... in 2014, MVFC got 5 teams and all 5 teams won their 1st game. We went 10-4 overall, with 7-1 against non-MVFC teams, 5 of 8 being on road; and 3-3 in games we canninbalized ourselves.

In 2015, 4 of 5 won their 1st game, only SDSU lost on road to Montana by 7.


so, wrong again .. you really like to spew assertions without checking facts. I'm done responding to you .. at least I'll try.

[Reign of Terrier]

youre in credible .. you make a definitive mis-statement, I disprove it with overwhelming evidence, and you counter with more BS.
But yes, those teams and games I cited, all eventually lost .. just like every other team not named NDSU .. so no I didn't count every game to disprove your point .. all teams except the Champion eventually lose. I cited 7 examples of playin or 1st round games that disprove your assertion. The simple point being, 4th and 5th place teams from MVFC regular win more than they lose over 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place teams from other conferences despite playing on road. And yes, like all other teams, they evetually lose.

Your 7 instances are quite literally irrelevant. The fourth and fifth place teams have never beaten a first or second place team in the CAA, the Socon, the Southland, or the Big Sky. Whenever we're talking about playoff positioning, it's pretty much indisputable that we generally think those conferences are more deserving of bubble bids. So if you're going to make the case that the fourth or fifth place MVFC team deserves consideration over the third place CAA/Socon/Southland/Big Sky, you have to demonstrate inconclusively that they perform better in similar circumstances. They don't.


The only instance where a "fourth place MVFC team" beat a second place Big Sky team was when UNI did it when they were tied for third in the MVFC in 2015. To say they were "fourth place" is misleading to outright false. They were tied for third and the other teams they tied with were not-so-good in the playoffs. Western Illinois beat a scholarshipless Pioneer team before getting whalloped by Illinois State and SDSU lost in the first round. UNI was clearly not the 4th best team by virtue of the fact that they tied these other two in conference standing and made it farther in the playoffs. The argument I'm making here is that we really don't need to give high priority to fifth and sometimes even fourth place MVFC teams over higher-placing teams in other conferences.

To illustrate with a thought experiment I have a hard time thinking that in 2015 Western Carolina (3rd in the socon), Central Arkansas (3rd slc), Bethune Cookman (2nd MEAC), or Towson (5th CAA, I think) wouldn't also A) beat Dayton and B) lose to Montana and get whalloped by Eastern Illinois.

The fact that you think that Western Illinois and South Dakota State demonstrated they were better than the aforementioned teams because they had the opportunity to do just as well as they almost certainly would have done demonstrates your bias. We're arguing playoff placement here. The fact that a team won a game in the playoffs because they were chosen in the bubble over others isn't evidence that they were conclusively better, it's just evidence that they were chosen in the first place.





Repeating your 2 original statements verbatim:

No one is going to contest that the third place MVFC should get a shot, but if you're going to claim that the fourth and fifth place MVFC team deserves special treatment over third place teams in other conference you have to demonstrate that they will, with high certainty, perform better. Even if they have won more games, the weak sample quality isn't really convincing.

"But if you look at their 4th and 5th place team they are really unimpressive, only beating Nicholls State (who hasn't beaten a fully scholarshipped team in the playoffs since the 1980s), pioneer league Dayton, and Montana State, which has been pretty medicore in terms of sustained success.

In addition to the 7-2 record already cited .... also noting, 3rd place YSU beat 3 teams who finished higher in their conferences 2 of which were top 3 seeds on road ... 1st place JSU (3rd seed) on road, 2nd place Wofford at home, 1st place EWU (2nd seed) on road.

The data points just keep piling up .... ignore away ...

You're moving the goal post. The claim is not that the third place team can't beat these teams. Third place teams win all the time. No one is disputing that the third best MVFC team is usually good and a force to be reckoned with (as is evident by the fact that committee has put 3 MVFC teams into the field for all but one year this decade). But the fourth and fifth place teams? Get out of here. No good evidence, as I've pointed out.


dude .. again, you need to check your facts ... in 2014, MVFC got 5 teams and all 5 teams won their 1st game. We went 10-4 overall, with 7-1 against non-MVFC teams, 5 of 8 being on road; and 3-3 in games we canninbalized ourselves.

In 2015, 4 of 5 won their 1st game, only SDSU lost on road to Montana by 7.


so, wrong again .. you really like to spew assertions without checking facts. I'm done responding to you .. at least I'll try.

Thanks for pointing out the error, I corrected it. However, the fact that I was wrong on one factual point doesn't make your argument valid.

You're putting a lot of weight on the fact that these games were played on the road. I don't. I think the top 2 teams in the SLC, top 3-4 teams in the CAA/MVFC and top 3 teams in the Socon/Big Sky could beat any team that isn't Jacksonville State or Kennesaw state on the road that plays in the Big South, OVC, Patriot*, Pioneer, MEAC, and NEC. What's more, I would favor these teams against the fifth place CAA/MVFC team, the 4th place Socon/Big Sky team, and the 3rd place SLC team. Home field advantage doesn't matter as much because these teams are sufficiently better that I feel confident in saying as much. Admittedly, the CAA royally laid an egg this year with Towson and Stony Brook, but that's another story.


Further, I don't think losing, no matter how valiantly in the playoffs, is an accomplishment worth praising, so I'm not acknowledging any of the near misses you bring up." The MVFC isn't the only team to be competitive on the road with higher-seeded teams. You're just the only one who thinks your near misses are more important.

I think it's further the case that with the teams finishing in rank order I have described (top 4 CAA/MVFC, Top 3 Socon/Big Sky, Top 2 SLC) that we can say with a high degree of certainty that those teams would beat third place SLC Nicholls State, Pioneer Dayton, 2nd place OVC Eastern Kentucky, while also being competitive (see: margin of error) with Montana State.

When it comes to beating the team that is within the realm of my respectable win column, Montana State, I think it's true that the fifth place CAA team, 4th place Socon/Big Sky team (which they did, with a 3-way tie for third), and third place SLC team would beat that team also.


Put simply: you don't have a formulaic understanding of FCS football. You're simply looking at wins and losses without considering counterfactuals or controlling for overall team quality. I can do this all day.

*the Patriot is the only one deserving an asterisk because once every couple of years has a very good team, like Colgate this past year.

[uni88]

Your 7 instances are quite literally irrelevant. The fourth and fifth place teams have never beaten a first or second place team in the CAA, the Socon, the Southland, or the Big Sky. Whenever we're talking about playoff positioning, it's pretty much indisputable that we generally think those conferences are more deserving of bubble bids. So if you're going to make the case that the fourth or fifth place MVFC team deserves consideration over the third place CAA/Socon/Southland/Big Sky, you have to demonstrate inconclusively that they perform better in similar circumstances. They don't.


The only instance where a "fourth place MVFC team" beat a second place Big Sky team was when UNI did it when they were tied for third in the MVFC in 2015. To say they were "fourth place" is misleading to outright false. They were tied for third and the other teams they tied with were not-so-good in the playoffs. Western Illinois beat a scholarshipless Pioneer team before getting whalloped by Illinois State and SDSU lost in the first round. UNI was clearly not the 4th best team by virtue of the fact that they tied these other two in conference standing and made it farther in the playoffs. The argument I'm making here is that we really don't need to give high priority to fifth and sometimes even fourth place MVFC teams over higher-placing teams in other conferences.

To illustrate with a thought experiment I have a hard time thinking that in 2015 Western Carolina (3rd in the socon), Central Arkansas (3rd slc), Bethune Cookman (2nd MEAC), or Towson (5th CAA, I think) wouldn't also A) beat Dayton and B) lose to Montana and get whalloped by Eastern Illinois.

The fact that you think that Western Illinois and South Dakota State demonstrated they were better than the aforementioned teams because they had the opportunity to do just as well as they almost certainly would have done demonstrates your bias. We're arguing playoff placement here. The fact that a team won a game in the playoffs because they were chosen in the bubble over others isn't evidence that they were conclusively better, it's just evidence that they were chosen in the first place.





You're moving the goal post. The claim is not that the third place team can't beat these teams. Third place teams win all the time. No one is disputing that the third best MVFC team is usually good and a force to be reckoned with (as is evident by the fact that committee has put 3 MVFC teams into the field for all but one year this decade). But the fourth and fifth place teams? Get out of here. No good evidence, as I've pointed out.



Thanks for pointing out the error, I corrected it. However, the fact that I was wrong on one factual point doesn't make your argument valid.

You're putting a lot of weight on the fact that these games were played on the road. I don't. I think the top 2 teams in the SLC, top 3-4 teams in the CAA/MVFC and top 3 teams in the Socon/Big Sky could beat any team that isn't Jacksonville State or Kennesaw state on the road that plays in the Big South, OVC, Patriot*, Pioneer, MEAC, and NEC. What's more, I would favor these teams against the fifth place CAA/MVFC team, the 4th place Socon/Big Sky team, and the 3rd place SLC team. Home field advantage doesn't matter as much because these teams are sufficiently better that I feel confident in saying as much. Admittedly, the CAA royally laid an egg this year with Towson and Stony Brook, but that's another story.


Further, I don't think losing, no matter how valiantly in the playoffs, is an accomplishment worth praising, so I'm not acknowledging any of the near misses you bring up." The MVFC isn't the only team to be competitive on the road with higher-seeded teams. You're just the only one who thinks your near misses are more important.

I think it's further the case that with the teams finishing in rank order I have described (top 4 CAA/MVFC, Top 3 Socon/Big Sky, Top 2 SLC) that we can say with a high degree of certainty that those teams would beat third place SLC Nicholls State, Pioneer Dayton, 2nd place OVC Eastern Kentucky, while also being competitive (see: margin of error) with Montana State.

When it comes to beating the team that is within the realm of my respectable win column, Montana State, I think it's true that the fifth place CAA team, 4th place Socon/Big Sky team (which they did, with a 3-way tie for third), and third place SLC team would beat that team also.


Put simply: you don't have a formulaic understanding of FCS football. You're simply looking at wins and losses without considering counterfactuals or controlling for overall team quality. I can do this all day.

*the Patriot is the only one deserving an asterisk because once every couple of years has a very good team, like Colgate this past year.

If a UNI that tied for 3rd is a 3rd place team and not a 4th place team then why isn't an App State that tied for 1st also 1st place team even though they lost to the ankle biters by 200?

And the fourth or fifth place MVFC team definitely deserves consideration over the third place CAA/Socon/Southland/Big Sky team. Why? Because the voices in my head said so. Is that inconclusive enough for you?

Seriously there should be no hard and fast rule on the number of teams per conference. Have there been years where you could argue that the 4th or 5th place MVFC team deserved as much consideration as a 3rd place team from another conference (or 4th or 5th or 6th place CAA team)? Yes. Could you argue that ISUb deserved to be in over one of the Southland at-larges last year? Yes. Does the fact that UNI struggled with Lamar last year validate their inclusion over ISUb? Not really. If UNI would have played ISUb like that they probably would have lost the game. Is the 3rd place SoCon team or 4th/5th place team a threat to win it all? No. But then neither are some of the at larges.

[Bisonoline]

dude .. again, you need to check your facts ... in 2014, MVFC got 5 teams and all 5 teams won their 1st game. We went 10-4 overall, with 7-1 against non-MVFC teams, 5 of 8 being on road; and 3-3 in games we canninbalized ourselves.

In 2015, 4 of 5 won their 1st game, only SDSU lost on road to Montana by 7.




so, wrong again .. you really like to spew assertions without checking facts. I'm done responding to you .. at least I'll try.

Just bow out. This guy can manufacture more BS on a supposed implicit claim which is nothing more than a non issue that he has over thought.
You arent windy enough to match up.

[Lorne_Malvo]

a very good team, like Colgate this past year.

Bwahahahah Colgate played the easiest schedule on the planet, played well against JMU then got shutout 35-0 by NDSU.
Colgate was not a great team. Put the pipe down.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Just bow out. This guy can manufacture more BS on a supposed implicit claim which is nothing more than a non issue that he has over thought.
You arent windy enough to match up.
already bowed out .. but thanks for wise advice

[Reign of Terrier]

If a UNI that tied for 3rd is a 3rd place team and not a 4th place team then why isn't an App State that tied for 1st also 1st place team even though they lost to the ankle biters by 200?

And the fourth or fifth place MVFC team definitely deserves consideration over the third place CAA/Socon/Southland/Big Sky team. Why? Because the voices in my head said so. Is that inconclusive enough for you?

Seriously there should be no hard and fast rule on the number of teams per conference. Have there been years where you could argue that the 4th or 5th place MVFC team deserved as much consideration as a 3rd place team from another conference (or 4th or 5th or 6th place CAA team)? Yes. Could you argue that ISUb deserved to be in over one of the Southland at-larges last year? Yes. Does the fact that UNI struggled with Lamar last year validate their inclusion over ISUb? Not really. If UNI would have played ISUb like that they probably would have lost the game. Is the 3rd place SoCon team or 4th/5th place team a threat to win it all? No. But then neither are some of the at larges.



I'm open to the 4th place team in the CAA/MVFC getting a bid, but the fifth place team is where you lose me, for the aforementioned reasons. I'm just saying if you think the fifth place team deserves special consideration (i.e. a participation trophy), just look at the history of who that team actually beats. Though obviously the rank order matters and it's a lot clearer in retrospect (UNI was tied for third in rank order, but they were clearly the third best team that year by virtue of playoff performance), we shouldn't let our hard-to-substantiate biases of teams because of the difficulty of determining rank order in conference races (who is the best of the 3 tied for 4) distract us from the reality that there's a high probability that the fifth place team is going to TANK in the playoffs, so long as they play a team that isn't from the OVC or another conference with a terrible record.


Bwahahahah Colgate played the easiest schedule on the planet, played well against JMU then got shutout 35-0 by NDSU.
Colgate was not a great team. Put the pipe down.

You can also count on one hand how many Touchdowns Colgate allowed outside of Army/NDSU. Colgate deserved the hype for how they won the games they did, not just that they won them. The Patriot League is usually not great in the playoffs, but they have a tradition of stealing one and or producing a great team every now and then. NDSU whalloped everyone, I don't think losing to them is a great measure. Come on now!

[PaladinFan]

I'm still trying to figure out how Furman wasn't good enough to get in the playoffs over Incarnate Word and Lamar, but is good enough to be a borderline top 15 team in the preseason rankings the next season.

[POD Knows]

I'm open to the 4th place team in the CAA/MVFC getting a bid, but the fifth place team is where you lose me, for the aforementioned reasons. I'm just saying if you think the fifth place team deserves special consideration (i.e. a participation trophy), just look at the history of who that team actually beats. Though obviously the rank order matters and it's a lot clearer in retrospect (UNI was tied for third in rank order, but they were clearly the third best team that year by virtue of playoff performance), we shouldn't let our hard-to-substantiate biases of teams because of the difficulty of determining rank order in conference races (who is the best of the 3 tied for 4) distract us from the reality that there's a high probability that the fifth place team is going to TANK in the playoffs, so long as they play a team that isn't from the OVC or another conference with a terrible record.



You can also count on one hand how many Touchdowns Colgate allowed outside of Army/NDSU. Colgate deserved the hype for how they won the games they did, not just that they won them. The Patriot League is usually not great in the playoffs, but they have a tradition of stealing one and or producing a great team every now and then. NDSU whalloped everyone, I don't think losing to them is a great measure. Come on now!We didn't whallop EWU, we are an onside kick recovery away from possibly losing that game.

[katss07]

I'm still trying to figure out how Furman wasn't good enough to get in the playoffs over Incarnate Word and Lamar, but is good enough to be a borderline top 15 team in the preseason rankings the next season.
My goodness, are you all STILL not over this?

[Reign of Terrier]

We didn't whallop EWU, we are an onside kick recovery away from possibly losing that game.

Yeah, EWU IMO was clearly the second best team this year. They're probably 2 TDs better than the third best team, but that doesn't take away from the fact that getting whipped by NDSU says nothing about overall quality of a team.

- - - Updated - - -


My goodness, are you all STILL not over this?

What you have to understand is that they love to whine:D

[PaladinFan]

My goodness, are you all STILL not over this?

I have long been of one mind about these things - put yourself in a position where refs/umpires/selection committees/whatever can't screw you.

I am just noting the inconsistency.

- - - Updated - - -


Yeah, EWU IMO was clearly the second best team this year. They're probably 2 TDs better than the third best team, but that doesn't take away from the fact that getting whipped by NDSU says nothing about overall quality of a team.

- - - Updated - - -



What you have to understand is that they love to whine:D

There are probably current Wofford students who weren't born when Wofford was "woofed" yet we still hear about it.