Five FCS Storylines of Concern

[bonarae]

From STATS.

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20190529102729621981104

[JSUSoutherner]

SHSU was dominant?

[POD Knows]

SHSU was dominant?CAA is the SEC of FCS?

[Derby City Duke]

CAA is the SEC of FCS?

Haley's words -- for whatever they're worth -- not most CAA fans. Very competitive conference, probably in the top 3 nationally.

[PaladinFan]

Haley's words -- for whatever they're worth -- not most CAA fans. Very competitive conference, probably in the top 3 nationally.

The SEC is as much a cultural phenomenon as much as it is a sports conference.

It's hard to say any conference is the "SEC" of anything.

[POD Knows]

Haley's words -- for whatever they're worth -- not most CAA fans. Very competitive conference, probably in the top 3 nationally.I agree on the position of the CAA, it is a top three conference. I also agree with the assessment of NDSU, we lost a ton and this year could be interesting.

[JSUSoutherner]

I agree on the position of the CAA, it is a top three conference. I also agree with the assessment of NDSU, we lost a ton and this year could be interesting.

I'm kind of surprised by this.

I was expecting the Bison fans to raise holy hell over that comment.

[TheKingpin28]

I'm kind of surprised by this.

I was expecting the Bison fans to raise holy hell over that comment.On Bisonville, yes. Those with a more rational view, plausible.

I would be disappointed if the Bison did not win their Quarterfinal match-up. Anything past that would be more than what I realistically expected. This is the one year where I'd take the field over NDSU. Should NDSU win it this year, the odds of another teaming winning it after that for the next 2-3 years will be quite low. I know some people are set on Trey Lance, but the way he throws the ball makes me a little skeptical. He is talented but IMO, his mechanics need some work.

Sent from my SM-J727V using Tapatalk

[POD Knows]

On Bisonville, yes. Those with a more rational view, plausible.

I would be disappointed if the Bison did not win their Quarterfinal match-up. Anything past that would be more than what I realistically expected. This is the one year where I'd take the field over NDSU. Should NDSU win it this year, the odds of another teaming winning it after that for the next 2-3 years will be quite low. I know some people are set on Trey Lance, but the way he throws the ball makes me a little skeptical. He is talented but IMO, his mechanics need some work.

Sent from my SM-J727V using TapatalkYea, when you only have a half dozen or so returning starters, I don't care how deep you are, there is going to be an effect. Lance threw some ugly balls in the spring game but does that mean anything, maybe not but who knows. We have good RB's coming back and a pretty solid O line, we will see. We lost a lot of players for 2014 but it seems like we lost a lot more "talent" this year.

[Serpentor]

SHSU was dominant?

Being the second most winningest team this decade kind of suggests that, Chicken Little.

[JSUSoutherner]

Being the second most winningest team this decade kind of suggests that, Chicken Little.

Chicken Little kicked your **** in.

We're the winningest team since 2014 other than NDSU and we aren't dominant.

It's what happens when you play in a conference like the OVC or the Southland.

[Herder]

Last year when Haley wrote his "CAA is back to being the best in the FCS" article, I told him he was out of his mind. One quick glance at the Sagarin ratings clearly still showed a huge gap between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS conference.

Haley responded and scoffed at my remarks. The playoff clearly proved me right. If you are comparing conferences, look at your sagarin rating people. It's not NDSU, its the top half of the MVFC that separates it. And now Haley points out the folly of the selection committee, when he was equally as sold on the CAA? shameful.

[CenMEBlackBearFan]

Chicken Little kicked your **** in.

We're the winningest team since 2014 other than NDSU and we aren't dominant.

It's what happens when you play in a conference like the OVC or the Southland.


I think what Maine did to you guys in the first round might would qualify as getting your *** kickedxdrunkyx

[JSUSoutherner]

I think what Maine did to you guys in the first round might would qualify as getting your *** kickedxdrunkyx

We beat them 62-10 in the semi-finals. You guys pounded us pretty good, but it wasn't quite to that level.

[uni88]

Yea, when you only have a half dozen or so returning starters, I don't care how deep you are, there is going to be an effect. Lance threw some ugly balls in the spring game but does that mean anything, maybe not but who knows. We have good RB's coming back and a pretty solid O line, we will see. We lost a lot of players for 2014 but it seems like we lost a lot more "talent" this year.NDSU has been extremely successful at recruiting and developing talent so I think the coaching transition is the biggest risk area for NDSU.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

[Bisonator]

I'm kind of surprised by this.

I was expecting the Bison fans to raise holy hell over that comment.
We're screwed. Lost too much talent. Lost our coaching staff.

[TheKingpin28]

Yea, when you only have a half dozen or so returning starters, I don't care how deep you are, there is going to be an effect. Lance threw some ugly balls in the spring game but does that mean anything, maybe not but who knows. We have good RB's coming back and a pretty solid O line, we will see. We lost a lot of players for 2014 but it seems like we lost a lot more "talent" this year.

I expect at least one loss and probably a loss to a school NDSU should never lost to. The difference between 14 and 19 is Carson Wentz vs Trey Lance. People were calling for Carson to start over Brock. I don't think I ever heard anyone rationally calling for Trey to start over Easton.

[TheKingpin28]

NDSU has been extremely successful at recruiting and developing talent so I think the coaching transition is the biggest risk area for NDSU.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

I am nervous of our coaching. I would have like Messingham to stay so that this way, Entz could still focus on the defense in a transition year while trusting Messingham to run the offense with Roehl in waiting.

[JSUSoutherner]

We're screwed. Lost too much talent. Lost our coaching staff.

Tru.

[caribbeanhen]

We're screwed. Lost too much talent. Lost our coaching staff.

Bison got nothing to worry about at FCS level But you might want to postpone that Alabama game for a few years

[CHIP72]

Bison got nothing to worry about at FCS level But you might want to postpone that Alabama game for a few years

Maybe when NDSU comes to Newark this season, they'll get confused when they see the host team and think it is Michigan.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Last year when Haley wrote his "CAA is back to being the best in the FCS" article, I told him he was out of his mind. One quick glance at the Sagarin ratings clearly still showed a huge gap between the MVFC and the rest of the FCS conference.

Haley responded and scoffed at my remarks. The playoff clearly proved me right. If you are comparing conferences, look at your sagarin rating people. It's not NDSU, its the top half of the MVFC that separates it. And now Haley points out the folly of the selection committee, when he was equally as sold on the CAA? shameful.
100% this .... check out this AGS thread outlining playoff records by conference since 2011 ... http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?229608-FCS-Playoff-Records-by-Conf-2011-18

But another way to look at this issue is simple math .... basic math reveals top tier Colonial teams benefit by not having to play all teams in conference much moreso than MVFC .. on average, all those 8-3 and 7-4 teams would be 7-4 and 6-5 if they played all the top teams like MVFC does 90% of the time. Colonial only does play 67% of the time which translates to 1.5 more wins each year on average for their top tier teams. There were 9 games not played head to head among those 6 teams. Some examples

... 8-3 Maine didn't have to play JMU, Delaware, or Stoney Brook .. and went 7-1 in conference to get autobid. But if they played those 3 teams, someone from those 3 games would have 3 losses. Maine likely would have lost 1 or 2 of those games and finished 7-4 or 6-5. But suppose Maine won all 3 .. then JMU might have been 7-4 instead of 8-3, Delaware might have been 6-5 instead of 7-4, Stoney Brook might have been 6-5 instead of 7-4 .. not so impressive come selection time.

- 6-4 Elon .. yes, there were three 6-4 teams who got bids over 6-4 ISUb ini 2018 .. 2 for Southland giving them 3 playoff bids and 1 for Colonial giving them unprecedented 6 teams ... Colonial went 3-6, Southland went 1-3. But Elon didn't have to play Stoney Brook ... if they did and Elon won, Stoney Brook would have been 6-5 instead of 7-4. Or if Elon lost, they would have been 5-5 .. one of the 2 would have pushed off bubble .. if they simply played.

- 7-4 Stoney Brook didn't have to play Elon or Maine .. they might have gone 6-5 of 5-6 if they did ... someone has to lose, right ?

Point is among the 6 CAA playoff teams, their collective # of losses were understated by 9 games for head to head games that were not played ... so their total losses would have been 9 more spread across those 6 teams .. all those CAA teams making the playoffs with 3 or 4 losses, that would have been 4 or 5 on average ... then they have 4 teams for one and done, JMU's only win was over a CAA team .. someone had to win. Ironically, Maine had luck of draww in CAA games and impressed the most in playoffs going 2-1.

MVFC has just 10 teams, so only 1 head to head game is affected like this .. far less understatement of potential losses for games not played in any given year. Big Sky has same potential advantage, but they were very top heavy this year and did well in playoffs.

Then there are the playoff records I compiled and linked above ... case closed IMO. FCS selection committee and people like Rob Haley need look no further than these facts. MVFC got screwed again in 2018 .. Colonial and Southland were last years beneficiaries.

[mvemjsunpx]

The idea that Idaho didn't do well because they weren't used to how Big Sky football is played is silly. They didn't do well because their defense underachieved, and because they lost their best offensive players from the previous year. I'm skeptical they'll be much, if at all, better in 2019.