NDSU's chance vs all 130 FBS programs

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Pretty interesting take. They have Temple as "would probably lose to NDSU". I would agree....

These are the only teams that were given no real chance
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Michigan
Notre Dame
LSU
Florida
Penn State
Texas A&M

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/7/18170160/north-dakota-state-fbs

[Grizalltheway]

Not sure about Penn State. They did get taken to the wire by App.

[Derby City Duke]

Having been forced to watch Louisville way too many times in person this past season (the things I do to keep Mrs. DCD happy xnodx) if the Bison didn't hang 56+ on the Cardinals, that would be an upset.

[RootinFerDukes]

A team good enough to beat 80 of 130 FBS teams with a near guarantee and their fans just tell the rest of FCS that they have to "elevate their level" somehow. Yeah, okay.

You're a P5 team playing in FCS. Your chances vs most of FBS confirms that.

[Panther88]

Yes, please NDSU go to austin, texas and have fabulous steaks waiting for us post-game. I've been craving bevo for awhile now lol. :D

[caribbeanhen]

this is about 5 years late, North Dakota State has been Top 20 FBS for years.... maybe only a handful of FBS teams that can beat them this year

[Redbird 4th & short]

I think the idea that NDSU is capable of beating 80% of FBS teams is not far fetched at all. They've twice played top 30 FBS teams and won close games .. Iowa and Kansas St.

But I think it is a different debate if NDSU was being scouted and played regularly at FBS level, and had to withstand the season long grind of 11 FBS games, not just 1 early in season .. which amount to trap games for sure. They certainly wouldn't hold up very well "as is", with current 63 schollies. But I also think they wouldn't fare as well even with full 85 schollies playing FBS every week.I think the coaching, scouting, recruitment, and then physical skill and talent level would take a toll. All the evidence of that you need is how few NDSU players make it to NFL teams over the years.

So no doubt, they "could" beat 80% of FBS teams most years in a single game, especially the 2013 and 2018 teams. But a whole season ... I think they would finish below .500 in any P5 conference and above .500 in most every G5 ... but not undefeated. Maybe I'm wrong ... but playing whole season of FBS is much different debate.

[WestCoastAggie]

A team good enough to beat 80 of 125 FBS teams with a near guarantee and their fans just tell the rest of FCS that they have to "elevate their level" somehow. Yeah, okay.

You're a P5 team playing in FCS. Your chances vs most of FBS confirms that.

https://theregulatortoo.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/pot-kettle.jpg?w=384&h=261

[WeAreThePride]

A team good enough to beat 80 of 125 FBS teams with a near guarantee and their fans just tell the rest of FCS that they have to "elevate their level" somehow. Yeah, okay.

You're a P5 team playing in FCS. Your chances vs most of FBS confirms that.
So start a GoFundMe to buy us a bigger stadium, and fund the extra 23(x2) scholarships. You do realize we moved up to D1 like 13 years ago?

[RootinFerDukes]

So start a GoFundMe to buy us a bigger stadium, and fund the extra 23(x2) scholarships. You do realize we moved up to D1 like 13 years ago?

Nah. That's your season ticket holder's responsibility to pony up.

[WeAreThePride]

Nah. That's your season ticket holder's responsibility to pony up.
So hows about your team gets better?

[walliver]

The article was interesting, but there are really very few metrics by which one can make a determination.It's really nothing more than one observer eye-balling the situation.
NDSU would obviously be a championship contender in the MAC, MWC, CUSA or Sun Belt. They would compete well in the AAC, but UCF is one G5 team I would favor in a match-up (I also think Army would be a good matchup). I personally would enjoy NDSU playing a home-and-home with App State or GSU. Unfortunately, due to arbitrary distinctions between subdivisions and a Sun Belt policy of not scheduling away games at FCS schools, that is not going to happen.
At the P5 level, they would be middle-of-the-pack in the PAC-12 and B1G, the upper half of the B12 and ACC (but well below Clemson, Oklahoma, and Texas), and the bottom half of the SEC - at least initially. As the years pass and losses mount, NDSU would likely fall in all of these conferences - likely to Vanderbilt or Wake Forest levels.

Like almost all posts between now and September, it's all conjecture and just my personal opinion which is worth exactly what you paid for it.

[Redbird 4th & short]

The article was interesting, but there are really very few metrics by which one can make a determination.It's really nothing more than one observer eye-balling the situation.
NDSU would obviously be a championship contender in the MAC, MWC, CUSA or Sun Belt. They would compete well in the AAC, but UCF is one G5 team I would favor in a match-up (I also think Army would be a good matchup). I personally would enjoy NDSU playing a home-and-home with App State or GSU. Unfortunately, due to arbitrary distinctions between subdivisions and a Sun Belt policy of not scheduling away games at FCS schools, that is not going to happen.
At the P5 level, they would be middle-of-the-pack in the PAC-12 and B1G, the upper half of the B12 and ACC (but well below Clemson, Oklahoma, and Texas), and the bottom half of the SEC - at least initially. As the years pass and losses mount, NDSU would likely fall in all of these conferences - likely to Vanderbilt or Wake Forest levels.

Like almost all posts between now and September, it's all conjecture and just my personal opinion which is worth exactly what you paid for it.
You mentioned Army ... Army beat Colgate 28-14 in last game of season for Colgate .. total offense was closer ... 286 to 251, though 1st downs was 21 to 13.

Then FCS playoffs started .... 1st round of playoffs Colgate hosts and beats JMU by 3, 2nd round Colgate loses at NDSU 35-0 .. total yards was 453 to 157.

[ST_Lawson]

Of course transitive property is a weak argument to go on, and some of these FBS teams are pretty bad FBS teams, but for comparison...
Northern Iowa - lost by 24 at Iowa, lost by 25 at home against NDSU
Western Illinois - lost by 20 at Illinois, lost by 27 at home against NDSU
Illinois State - won by 16 at Colorado State, lost by 14 at NDSU
South Dakota - lost by 3 at Kansas State, lost by 45 at home against NDSU
Missouri State - lost by 41 at Oklahoma State, lost by 41 at home against NDSU
Southern Illinois - lost by 35 at Ole Miss, lost by 48 at NDSU
Previously mentioned Colgate lost by 14 at Army, then just a couple weeks later, lost by 35 at NDSU

The only two games where there was more of an advantage to the FBS team playing someone than NDSU playing that team:
Youngstown State - lost by 35 at West Virginia, lost by 10 at NDSU
Eastern Washington - lost by 35 at Washington State, lost by 14 against NDSU in the championship game

[Redbird 4th & short]

Transitive property is only weak when taking just 2 games into consideration. But it works better as you stack up a bunch of games ... more data points the better it works.

[Bisonator]

A team good enough to beat 80 of 130 FBS teams with a near guarantee and their fans just tell the rest of FCS that they have to "elevate their level" somehow. Yeah, okay.

You're a P5 team playing in FCS. Your chances vs most of FBS confirms that.
xbawlingx

JMU spends more then NDSU, has an FBS ready stadium and is in a much better geographic region for FBS conference invites yet continues to play at the FCS level. xeyebrowx

[Nor Eastern]

xbawlingx

JMU spends more then NDSU, has an FBS ready stadium and is in a much better geographic region for FBS conference invites yet continues to play at the FCS level. xeyebrowx

Being picky about which conference to move up with (CUSA vs SBC) is the reason JMU is still in FCS. They could have moved up instead of CCU but decided not to. Seems like they should be upset with their program rather than NDSU running rough shod over them and the subdivision.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I have said for years they would beat any FBS team 12 through 25.

Not surprising at all

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[ALPHAGRIZ1]

Too low should be 11-13ishhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190116/3d15f076dc1dbe5d66529bfb7d274228.jpg

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[Kramden]

If you're going to play The Who beat who game, Army almost beat Oklahoma.

[Professor]

This topic always makes me laugh. Either enjoy being FCS or get off the hump and figure out a way to be FBS. IF you were to be that dominate in FBS, you go play in it. Would mean a major bowl every year

[TheKingpin28]

This topic always makes me laugh. Either enjoy being FCS or get off the hump and figure out a way to be FBS. IF you were to be that dominate in FBS, you go play in it. Would mean a major bowl every year

But at the end the of the day, no real chance to play for a national title as it's just an Alabama, Clemson/FSU (If they come back), B1G/B12/Pac12/SEC-2 (only if Alabama doesn't win their conference) circle jerk.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Too low should be 11-13ishhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190116/3d15f076dc1dbe5d66529bfb7d274228.jpg

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so if the question infers NDSU "as is" with 63 schollies, and furthemore supposes they played in a P5 conference .. would you really still ranked them 11 to 13 ... that would mean like 9-3 records against P5 programs. I think it must be viewed in that context ... and then dont believe their roster would hold up under that season long grind. As it stands, they play 1 FBS each year (at most) .. it amounts to a trap game most times. And most of their wins are against teams outside the top 50 ... only a couple were inside top 30.

I just don't think their roster and system would hold up under season long FBS grind, expecially not P5. I could see top 5-10 success at G5 level for sure.

[DFW HOYA]

These topics are about as relevant as "could Alabama beat the Cleveland Browns?" In both cases, no.

We've seen other I-AA dynasties move up (Marshall, App State, etc.) with diminished returns. If NDSU was playing in the Mountain West, they're somewhere between Air Force and Colorado State.

[POD Knows]

These topics are about as relevant as "could Alabama beat the Cleveland Browns?" In both cases, no.

We've seen other I-AA dynasties move up (Marshall, App State, etc.) with diminished returns. If NDSU was playing in the Mountain West, they're somewhere between Air Force and Colorado State.BS, they would be in the top tier of that conference, are you saying that NDSU would be behind Wyoming, seriously. Freaking UND beat Wyoming a couple years ago, I know they have gotten better but yea. You do understand that the FBS teams that NDSU have beaten lately, with 63 schollies, are P5 schools.

[centennial]

These topics are about as relevant as "could Alabama beat the Cleveland Browns?" In both cases, no.

We've seen other I-AA dynasties move up (Marshall, App State, etc.) with diminished returns. If NDSU was playing in the Mountain West, they're somewhere between Air Force and Colorado State.

Colorado State was beaten by Illinois State this year. NDSU is realistically a top 5-10 G5 program playing in the FCS. This year with a huge senior class probably top 3-4.

[DFW HOYA]

Colorado State was beaten by Illinois State this year. NDSU is realistically a top 5-10 G5 program playing in the FCS. This year with a huge senior class probably top 3-4.

I don't see NDSU having won the Mountain West this past year.

Here is a rough order of the top 10 teams this season below the P5. Where does NDSU fit?

1. UCF
2. Fresno St.
3. Cincinnati
4. Boise St.
5. Army
6. USF
7. App St.
8. Memphis
9. Utah St.
10. UAB

[centennial]

I don't see NDSU having won the Mountain West this past year.

Here is a rough order of the top 10 teams this season below the P5. Where does NDSU fit?

1. UCF
2. Fresno St.
3. Cincinnati
4. Boise St.
5. Army
6. USF
7. App St.
8. Memphis
9. Utah St.
10. UAB

This is what Sagarin would predict would happen on a neutral field vs NDSU.

1. UCF (-1)
2. Fresno St.(-1)
3. Cincinnati(-7)
4. Boise St.(-4)
5. Army(-8)
6. USF (South Florida was 7-6 this year)
7. App St.(-7)
8. Memphis(-10)
9. Utah St.(-4)
10. UAB (-15)


NDSU has a good chance against UCF, Fresno St, Boise but could lose those. Cincinnati, Army I think NDSU could win. App St, Memphis, UAB I would take NDSU outright. So maybe as high as 3 and low of 6 on this list. Again this is a historically good NDSU team similar to 2013.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Colorado State was beaten by Illinois State this year. NDSU is realistically a top 5-10 G5 program playing in the FCS. This year with a huge senior class probably top 3-4.
Very rational response. As for P5, I think 2013 and 2018 NDSU might have squeaked into top 30. All other NDSU teams would be more like top 50.

Here is their FBS track record relative to their FCS performance since 2010:

- 2010 NDSU finished 9-4 and beat 3-9 Kansas by score of 6-3. Kansas was ranked Massey #93 in FBS; NDSU made to elite 8 in FCS.

- 2011 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 3-9 Minnesota by 13. Minn was ranked Massey #85 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, only loss was to 6-5 YSU at home

- 2012 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 4-8 Colorado St by 15. CSU was ranked Massey #109 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, only loss was to 7-5 ISUb at home.

- 2013 NDSU finished 15-0 and beat 7-5 Kansas St by 2. Kansas was ranked Massey #21 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, no losses.

- 2014 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 2-10 Iowa St by 20. Iowa St was ranked Massey #85 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, lost to UNI on road. In playoffs, they won 3 of their 4 games by 7 points or less (by 2 over my ISUr in Natty), only playoff blow out was .... you guessed it ... SHSU.

- 2015 NDSU finished 13-2 with no FBS games, lost to Montana on road in opener. NDSU won Natty, but also lost to 5-6 USD, again at home.

- 2016 NDSU finished 12-2 and beat 8-4 Iowa by 3. Iowa was ranked Massey #36 in FBS; NDSU lost in semi's to JMU by 10 at home; also lost to SDSU by 2, and again at home.

- 2017 NDSU finished 14-1 with no FBS game, smoked 7-4 EWU (new coach) in toughest OOC game; won natty against JMU by 4; only loss was to SDSU on road by 12

- 2018 NDSU finished 15-0 with no FBS game, steam rolled thir way to Natty .. just 2 close games beating YSU by 10 and SDSU by 4 ... once again, both close games at home


This just is not an FBS P5 top 20 resume, much less top 11-13. Certainly not "as is" with 63 schollies. By P5 standards, they've handled 4 patsies and then barely beat 2 top 30-ish teams in 9 years.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

so if the question infers NDSU "as is" with 63 schollies, and furthemore supposes they played in a P5 conference .. would you really still ranked them 11 to 13 ... that would mean like 9-3 records against P5 programs. I think it must be viewed in that context ... and then dont believe their roster would hold up under that season long grind. As it stands, they play 1 FBS each year (at most) .. it amounts to a trap game most times. And most of their wins are against teams outside the top 50 ... only a couple were inside top 30.

I just don't think their roster and system would hold up under season long FBS grind, expecially not P5. I could see top 5-10 success at G5 level for sure.I disagree, it's a mentality and a culture issue not a roster issue. I don't buy the excuses people make for playing bad football.

We got tired
Ran out of gas
Didn't have the horses
Etc

Players play and execute

Losers make excuses

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[ALPHAGRIZ1]

I don't see NDSU having won the Mountain West this past year.

Here is a rough order of the top 10 teams this season below the P5. Where does NDSU fit?

1. UCF
2. Fresno St.
3. Cincinnati
4. Boise St.
5. Army
6. USF
7. App St.
8. Memphis
9. Utah St.
10. UABNDSU would beat every team on that list the only one that has a chance is UCF with Milton playing QB if not they get rolled too

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[Redbird 4th & short]

I disagree, it's a mentality and a culture issue not a roster issue. I don't buy the excuses people make for playing bad football.

We got tired
Ran out of gas
Didn't have the horses
Etc

Players play and execute

Losers make excuses

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
but what if the other guys are on average 1-2" inches taller, 5-10 lbs heavier, and run .1 to .2 faster in forty at most positions .. and work just as hard as NDSU works, and has good coaches too. Bigger better athletes will wear down lesser athletes ... there is no reason to think the best P5 teams aren't also well coached and that their players don't have similar resolve with slightly better physical skill sets. You think NDSU is only program with good coaching and players that execute in games ? Note, the notion of "execution" under pressure has a lot to do with how hard and how good the other guy plays .. top 30 P5 teams and players are also good at these things. Again, look at NDSU's FBS resume I posted by P5 Top 30 standards, not by FCS or Big Sky standards ... beat 4 FBS patsies by avg of 13 ppg, then 2 top 30 teams by avg of 3 .... not very impressive. But by G5 standards, yes, it is certainly impressive enough.

In FCS, if a top 20 team beat the #85 team by 13 points, that would be a weak win .. good teams put bad teams away .. well same goes for FBS.

[frozennorth]

but what if the other guys are on average 1-2" inches taller, 5-10 lbs heavier, and run .1 to .2 faster in forty at most positions .. and work just as hard as NDSU works, and has good coaches too. Bigger better athletes will wear down lesser athletes ... there is no reason to think the best P5 teams aren't also well coached and that their players don't have similar resolve with slightly better physical skill sets. You think NDSU is only program with good coaching and players that execute in games ? Note, the notion of "execution" under pressure has a lot to do with how hard and how good the other guy plays .. top 30 P5 teams and players are also good at these things. Again, look at NDSU's FBS resume I posted by P5 Top 30 standards, not by FCS or Big Sky standards ... beat 4 FBS patsies by avg of 13 ppg, then 2 top 30 teams by avg of 3 .... not very impressive. But by G5 standards, yes, it is certainly impressive enough.

In FCS, if a top 20 team beat the #85 team by 13 points, that would be a weak win .. good teams put bad teams away .. well same goes for FBS.
there aren't teams like that in college football. NDSU's Oline, Dline, RB, LB, secondary etc are as big and fast as anyone outside of UA and CU.

the main thing holding NDSU back from being nationally elite is its complete inability to recruit elite recieving talent, everywhere else is talented and deep as ****

seriously, how many season ending injuries were there in 2017, and they still rolled all but the other two elite FCS programs, SDSU and JMU

[frozennorth]

These topics are about as relevant as "could Alabama beat the Cleveland Browns?" In both cases, no.

We've seen other I-AA dynasties move up (Marshall, App State, etc.) with diminished returns. If NDSU was playing in the Mountain West, they're somewhere between Air Force and Colorado State.
marshall went 10-3, 12-1, and 13-0 in its first three seasons in the FBS, and has nowhere near the geographic or institutional advantages of NDSU. The correct comparison for NDSU is Boise State, which likewise is THE high mid major for a large portion of the country, with no nearby rivals

[frozennorth]

Very rational response. As for P5, I think 2013 and 2018 NDSU might have squeaked into top 30. All other NDSU teams would be more like top 50.

Here is their FBS track record relative to their FCS performance since 2010:

- 2010 NDSU finished 9-4 and beat 3-9 Kansas by score of 6-3. Kansas was ranked Massey #93 in FBS; NDSU made to elite 8 in FCS.

- 2011 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 3-9 Minnesota by 13. Minn was ranked Massey #85 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, only loss was to 6-5 YSU at home

- 2012 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 4-8 Colorado St by 15. CSU was ranked Massey #109 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, only loss was to 7-5 ISUb at home.

- 2013 NDSU finished 15-0 and beat 7-5 Kansas St by 2. Kansas was ranked Massey #21 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, no losses.

- 2014 NDSU finished 14-1 and beat 2-10 Iowa St by 20. Iowa St was ranked Massey #85 in FBS; NDSU won Natty, lost to UNI on road. In playoffs, they won 3 of their 4 games by 7 points or less (by 2 over my ISUr in Natty), only playoff blow out was .... you guessed it ... SHSU.

- 2015 NDSU finished 13-2 with no FBS games, lost to Montana on road in opener. NDSU won Natty, but also lost to 5-6 USD, again at home.

- 2016 NDSU finished 12-2 and beat 8-4 Iowa by 3. Iowa was ranked Massey #36 in FBS; NDSU lost in semi's to JMU by 10 at home; also lost to SDSU by 2, and again at home.

- 2017 NDSU finished 14-1 with no FBS game, smoked 7-4 EWU (new coach) in toughest OOC game; won natty against JMU by 4; only loss was to SDSU on road by 12

- 2018 NDSU finished 15-0 with no FBS game, steam rolled thir way to Natty .. just 2 close games beating YSU by 10 and SDSU by 4 ... once again, both close games at home


This just is not an FBS P5 top 20 resume, much less top 11-13. Certainly not "as is" with 63 schollies. By P5 standards, they've handled 4 patsies and then barely beat 2 top 30-ish teams in 9 years.
your argument against NDSU is several near and actual blowouts against marginal p5 programs.

NDSU scored to go up 41-14 against UM, had it called back on a bogus call, missed the field goal, and UM scored a garbage time TD against backups.

NDSU ran ISU and CSU off the field

NDSU left points on the field against KSU and UI

[kalm]

I disagree, it's a mentality and a culture issue not a roster issue. I don't buy the excuses people make for playing bad football.

We got tired
Ran out of gas
Didn't have the horses
Etc

Players play and execute

Losers make excuses

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Intangible but I think you're right. The Bizon know what they're going to do, they play without fear, and make few mistakes. Everyone knows they're physical but the mindset created by the system might be even more impressive in regards to performance on the field.

Also, everyone tends to skip the part about all of these FBS wins coming on the road. Playing a G5 schedule, the Bizon are still almost a lock right now to go 5-1 or better at home every year.

[Redbird 4th & short]

your argument against NDSU is several near and actual blowouts against marginal p5 programs.

NDSU scored to go up 41-14 against UM, had it called back on a bogus call, missed the field goal, and UM scored a garbage time TD against backups.

NDSU ran ISU and CSU off the field

NDSU left points on the field against KSU and UI

When youre ranked 93, 85, 109, and 85 out of about 125 FBS teams, youre not a marginal P5 team, you are a bad P5 team. You might be a marginal G5 team, but again .. those rankings are all of FBS including G5 .. so you're actually and average or below average G5 team.

Edit:

And another way to spin the Minnesota game is NDSU needed 2 pick 6's for 14 points, yet only won by 13. 1st downs were even, and total yards were slight advantage to NDSU. NDSU steamrolled them in Q2, but in the 3 other quarters Minnesota slightly outplayed them. Point being, as FCS teams go, that was an impressive win for NDSU. As G5 teams go, that was an ok win. As P5 teams go, that would be considered a weak win. That game is certainly not evidence of a top 20 FBS team. Only the 2013 Kansas St game and 2016 Iowa games hint at a top 30 or top 25 level team. The other 4 "patsy FBS" wins by 13 ppg just do not make a top 30 argument at all. Certainly have to include 2018 as a team which made argument for top 30 FBS.

Even the 2016 year when they beat a good Iowa team by 2, they lost 2 FCS games. And then in addition to 2 FCS losses, they had 5 other FCS wins by TD or less: 10-1 EWU by 6, 7-4 Chuck South by 7, 6-5 WIU by 8, 5-6 UNI by 4, 4-7 USD by 7. This is why Massey had 2016 NDSU at #44 in all of D-I.

But I just don't see how 2 impressive games over a 9 year period makes NDSU a top 20 (or better) level FBS program for this entire era. 2013 and 2018 really standout and make a trop 30 argument .. and maybe 2016 is debatable with Iowa win.

p.s. 2018 ISUr beat Colorado St by 16 on road and we gave up a meaning less TD in last minute playing prevent .. so qwe had 22 point lead. Yet we finished 6-5 and weern't even a playoff bubble team. Do I consider CSU an impressive FBS win .. it depends on the standard .. considering we went 6-5 in FCS, yes, it was a very impressive win. But if we were an NDSU or JMU type team that went 14-1 or 15-0, would a 16 point win over FBS #109 CSU ... it's just not nearly as impressive a result.

[Preferred Walk-On]

When youre ranked 93, 85, 109, and 85 out of about 125 FBS teams, youre not a marginal P5 team, you are a bad P5 team. You might be a marginal G5 team, but again .. those rankings are all of FBS including G5 .. so you're actually and average or below average G5 team.

Edit:

And another way to spin the Minnesota game is NDSU needed 2 pick 6's for 14 points, yet only won by 13. 1st downs were even, and total yards were slight advantage to NDSU. NDSU steamrolled them in Q2, but in the 3 other quarters Minnesota slightly outplayed them. Point being, as FCS teams go, that was an impressive win for NDSU. As G5 teams go, that was an ok win. As P5 teams go, that would be considered a weak win. That game is certainly not evidence of a top 20 FBS team. Only the 2013 Kansas St game and 2016 Iowa games hint at a top 30 or top 25 level team. The other 4 "patsy FBS" wins by 13 ppg just do not make a top 30 argument at all. Certainly have to include 2018 as a team which made argument for top 30 FBS.

Even the 2016 year when they beat a good Iowa team by 2, they lost 2 FCS games. And then in addition to 2 FCS losses, they had 5 other FCS wins by TD or less: 10-1 EWU by 6, 7-4 Chuck South by 7, 6-5 WIU by 8, 5-6 UNI by 4, 4-7 USD by 7. This is why Massey had 2016 NDSU at #44 in all of D-I.

But I just don't see how 2 impressive games over a 9 year period makes NDSU a top 20 (or better) level FBS program for this entire era. 2013 and 2018 really standout and make a trop 30 argument .. and maybe 2016 is debatable with Iowa win.

p.s. 2018 ISUr beat Colorado St by 16 on road and we gave up a meaning less TD in last minute playing prevent .. so qwe had 22 point lead. Yet we finished 6-5 and weern't even a playoff bubble team. Do I consider CSU an impressive FBS win .. it depends on the standard .. considering we went 6-5 in FCS, yes, it was a very impressive win. But if we were an NDSU or JMU type team that went 14-1 or 15-0, would a 16 point win over FBS #109 CSU ... it's just not nearly as impressive a result.

I have not read every post in this thread in detail, and I would disagree with a substantial number of the wins/losses put forth in the original SBNation list. Also, anyone who knows me knows that I am not just a blind Bison backer.

However, I am just curious if there are any other FCS teams that are/were 9-3 in their last 12 games played against FBS competition. Are there any that are 6-6 (.500) or even 3-9 (.250) in that stretch? Are there any FCS teams that have beaten more P5 teams (whether you think they are weak or not) in that 12 game stretch? I think most can probably agree that the Bison have been remarkably successful, on the road, against the FBS teams they had scheduled, and that they would hold their own quite well with most G5 and with a significant number of P5 teams.

By the way, I always cheer for the FCS over the FBS team in every game played, and I think now more than ever, FCS is demonstrating that the quality of play is not significantly different than G5 teams. So, the question is: Has the FCS really gotten worse than in past years like some threads/posters discussing the "Old Guard" would lead you to believe, because I would suggest that the G5 (which these "Old Guard" schools are now a part of) is not really much different in terms of quality of play. This would tend to suggest that either the G5 has gotten worse (with the "Old Guard") or the FCS has gotten better (although I realize that these are NOT mutually exclusive). This is not to knock previously-FCS teams (as many are doing quite well), this is to suggest that the FCS is no-less high quality than it previously had been.

[Redbird 4th & short]

there aren't teams like that in college football. NDSU's Oline, Dline, RB, LB, secondary etc are as big and fast as anyone outside of UA and CU.

the main thing holding NDSU back from being nationally elite is its complete inability to recruit elite recieving talent, everywhere else is talented and deep as ****

seriously, how many season ending injuries were there in 2017, and they still rolled all but the other two elite FCS programs, SDSU and JMU
then why don't NDSU put more players in NFL. I don't know the numbers, but I'm pretty sure my ISUr puts more players in NFL than Bison since they've gone on their Natty run. If their guys were same size and speed as FBS, many more would be getting drafted and making NFL game rosters.

Just found the numbers ...

Here is article from NCAA as of Sept 2017 .. counts # of NFL players by college. NDSU has 7, which makes them tied for 89th overall. Many of the top 10 schools have between 35 and 50 in NFL, and some get 7 per year, NDSU has 7 total as Sept 2017. There is no way they are as big and fast as top 20 FBS programs, and would rank in top 20 .. and then have just 7 players in NFL. They have a really good system and model, that works very very very well at FCS level. And would certainly work well at G5 level. But I think people get very carried away assuming this is a top 20 FBS level team every year. Got to keep it real.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-09-07/colleges-most-represented-2017-nfl-opening-day-rosters

[Redbird 4th & short]

then why don't NDSU put more players in NFL. I don't know the numbers, but I'm pretty sure my ISUr puts more players in NFL than Bison since they've gone on their Natty run. If their guys were same size and speed as FBS, many more would be getting drafted and making NFL game rosters.

Just found the numbers ...

Here is article from NCAA as of Sept 2017 .. counts # of NFL players by college. NDSU has 7, which makes them tied for 89th overall. Many of the top 10 schools have between 35 and 50 in NFL, and some get 7 per year, NDSU has 7 total as Sept 2017. There is no way they are as big and fast as top 20 FBS programs, and would rank in top 20 .. and then have just 7 players in NFL. They have a really good system and model, that works very very very well at FCS level. And would certainly work well at G5 level. But I think people get very carried away assuming this is a top 20 FBS level team every year. Got to keep it real.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-09-07/colleges-most-represented-2017-nfl-opening-day-rosters

For further perspective, here is the NFL roster count for the last 6 FBS teams they beat:

Iowa has 26 on NFL rosters .. ranked #27 on this list .. very impressive !!!
Kansas St 11 .. #67
Minn 10 .. #75
Colorado St 6 .. 95th tied and lower than several FCS teams
Iowa St 6 .. 95th
Kansas 6 .. 95th

None of this is meant to take anything away from NDSU's success .. but I am trying to keep it proper perspective. And by the way, this entire argument is the exact same argument I made when NC A&T tried to claim they were top FCS team earlier this year based on the JSU and ECU games ... and the rest of their season showed us they were maybe a top 20 or 25 team this year .. the Massey Composite of 35+ polls has #24.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I have not read every post in this thread in detail, and I would disagree with a substantial number of the wins/losses put forth in the original SBNation list. Also, anyone who knows me knows that I am not just a blind Bison backer.

However, I am just curious if there are any other FCS teams that are/were 9-3 in their last 12 games played against FBS competition. Are there any that are 6-6 (.500) or even 3-9 (.250) in that stretch? Are there any FCS teams that have beaten more P5 teams (whether you think they are weak or not) in that 12 game stretch? I think most can probably agree that the Bison have been remarkably successful, on the road, against the FBS teams they had scheduled, and that they would hold their own quite well with most G5 and with a significant number of P5 teams.

By the way, I always cheer for the FCS over the FBS team in every game played, and I think now more than ever, FCS is demonstrating that the quality of play is not significantly different than G5 teams. So, the question is: Has the FCS really gotten worse than in past years like some threads/posters discussing the "Old Guard" would lead you to believe, because I would suggest that the G5 (which these "Old Guard" schools are now a part of) is not really much different in terms of quality of play. This would tend to suggest that either the G5 has gotten worse (with the "Old Guard") or the FCS has gotten better (although I realize that these are NOT mutually exclusive). This is not to knock previously-FCS teams (as many are doing quite well), this is to suggest that the FCS is no-less high quality than it previously had been.

ISUr has won 3 of last 5 FBS games .. only losses were to 12-2 Iowa team by 17 in 2015 and to 10-3 Ball St team in 2013 .. the year we went 5-6. I already mentioned the 3 wins on other post.

[Preferred Walk-On]

ISUr has won 3 of last 5 FBS games .. only losses were to 12-2 Iowa team by 17 in 2015 and to 10-3 Ball St team in 2013 .. the year we went 5-6. I already mentioned the 3 wins on other post.

Last 12 FBS games?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TennBison]

then why don't NDSU put more players in NFL. I don't know the numbers, but I'm pretty sure my ISUr puts more players in NFL than Bison since they've gone on their Natty run. If their guys were same size and speed as FBS, many more would be getting drafted and making NFL game rosters.

Just found the numbers ...

Here is article from NCAA as of Sept 2017 .. counts # of NFL players by college. NDSU has 7, which makes them tied for 89th overall. Many of the top 10 schools have between 35 and 50 in NFL, and some get 7 per year, NDSU has 7 total as Sept 2017. There is no way they are as big and fast as top 20 FBS programs, and would rank in top 20 .. and then have just 7 players in NFL. They have a really good system and model, that works very very very well at FCS level. And would certainly work well at G5 level. But I think people get very carried away assuming this is a top 20 FBS level team every year. Got to keep it real.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-09-07/colleges-most-represented-2017-nfl-opening-day-rosters

So since ISUr is so loaded with NFL talent then how come they are not winning the national championship 7 out of 8 years?????????????????

[BisonBacker]

BS, they would be in the top tier of that conference, are you saying that NDSU would be behind Wyoming, seriously. Freaking UND beat Wyoming a couple years ago, I know they have gotten better but yea. You do understand that the FBS teams that NDSU have beaten lately, with 63 schollies, are P5 schools.

This is what makes me chuckle when these conversations pop up. Folks like to diss NDSU with the "full schedule of FBS games NDSU wouldn't hold up" talk but seldom mention the disparity in scholarships. If NDSU had the benefit of the additional scholarships that "full schedule" argument is bumpkus. Where NDSU does and would continue at probably a much higher rate suffer (if you want to call it that) would be the attrition of coaches being poached by programs with deeper pockets.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Last 12 FBS games?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
not sure, I've only followed ISUr during Spack era .. which I just checked is 3 of 6 .. other lost was gettign smoked by a solid 7-5 Northwestern team in 2010 .. so for the 6 prior to Spack, I don't know but doubt we won more than 1 of those 6.

Sorry, I should be more clear .... I'm in no way trying to say we are close to NDSU level as program. I only brought up ISUr FBS results in Spack era to put the NDSU success for Natty era (2011-2018) in perspective. But clearly, NDSU has had way MORE of that level success than we have had, even going back further to your D-II years.

So my only point is beating 4 FBS teams ranked 85 to 109 by avg of 13 pts doesn't make any team a top 20 FBS team. This is the basis for this whole thread .. we're all just parsing "how good" they would be at next level. IMO the argument is strongest in years 2013 and 2018, and possibly 2016 .. but slips in all of the other years.

[Redbird 4th & short]

not sure, I've only followed ISUr during Spack era .. which I just checked is 3 of 6 .. other lost was gettign smoked by a solid 7-5 Northwestern team in 2010 .. so for the 6 prior to Spack, I don't know but doubt we won more than 1 of those 6.

Sorry, I should be more clear .... I'm in no way trying to say we are close to NDSU level as program. I only brought up ISUr FBS results in Spack era to put the NDSU success for Natty era (2011-2018) in perspective. But clearly, NDSU has had way MORE of that level success than we have had, even going back further to your D-II years.

So my only point is beating 4 FBS teams ranked 85 to 109 by avg of 13 pts doesn't make any team a top 20 FBS team. This is the basis for this whole thread .. we're all just parsing "how good" they would be at next level. IMO the argument is strongest in years 2013 and 2018, and possibly 2016 .. but slips in all of the other years.

correction, Spacks 1st year was 2009 and we got smoked by U of I in his 1st year .. so 3 of 5 in NDSU Natty era (2011-18) drops to 3 of 7 in SPack era (2009-18)

[Hammerhead]

So since ISUr is so loaded with NFL talent then how come they are not winning the national championship 7 out of 8 years?????????????????

NDSU's talent on the bench is what sets them apart. Sure, NDSU has a group of players that are among the best in the FCS, but they also have capable backups to give breathers a rest and I'm sure there are a few players at NDSU who are living the college football dream like Rudy at Notre Dame even though they almost never play.

[Redbird 4th & short]

So since ISUr is so loaded with NFL talent then how come they are not winning the national championship 7 out of 8 years?????????????????
To answer your question, because we are not nearly as good, nor as consistently good, as NDSU.

But the point of my post on NFL players was to respond to another poster who argued that Bison players are just as big and as fast as all FBS teams except Clemson and Alabama. To which I said and tried to demonstrate there is no way that is true or they would have way more than 7 NFL players.

But again, I am not trying to argue ISUr is almost as good as NDSU at all ... and certainly not because we both have 7 players in NFL. Just providing factual perspective, then offering my opinion on what I think those facts tell us. Obviously, ISUr does not hold a candle to NDSU over 2011-18 .. but that doesnt mean NDSU would be a Top 20 program at FBS level.

[Redbird 4th & short]

NDSU's talent on the bench is what sets them apart. Sure, NDSU has a group of players that are among the best in the FCS, but they also have capable backups to give breathers a rest and I'm sure there are a few players at NDSU who are living the college football dream like Rudy at Notre Dame even though they almost never play.
that and they have a system and model that they execute better than anyone else in FCS by far. Recruitment, development, systems, game planning ... do everything a little better than everyone else and do it much more consistently than anyone else. I think it has less to do with the talent level and more to do with finding the right talent and then how you develop and use that talent. This is why you have as many FCS Nattys as you have players in NFL.

[Preferred Walk-On]

not sure, I've only followed ISUr during Spack era .. which I just checked is 3 of 6 .. other lost was gettign smoked by a solid 7-5 Northwestern team in 2010 .. so for the 6 prior to Spack, I don't know but doubt we won more than 1 of those 6.

Sorry, I should be more clear .... I'm in no way trying to say we are close to NDSU level as program. I only brought up ISUr FBS results in Spack era to put the NDSU success for Natty era (2011-2018) in perspective. But clearly, NDSU has had way MORE of that level success than we have had, even going back further to your D-II years.

So my only point is beating 4 FBS teams ranked 85 to 109 by avg of 13 pts doesn't make any team a top 20 FBS team. This is the basis for this whole thread .. we're all just parsing "how good" they would be at next level. IMO the argument is strongest in years 2013 and 2018, and possibly 2016 .. but slips in all of the other years.

I don't know if people really think the Bison are currently or would consistently be a top 20 team (I do not), and I am not even sure the SBNation piece is even trying to indicate this, as there are 49 teams listed before they get to the "would probably lose to NDSU" category. I for one think they would be a very competitive G5 team in whatever conference they might be in, and if in a P5 conference, I think they could develop into a mid-level team in that conference, with a big win over a top team per year (or every other year). These are mighty big "what-ifs", and I am (and I think most Bison fans are) satisfied with the Bison winning FCS championships and with their performance against FBS teams since joining Division I.

Also, FBS is FBS, so critiquing rankings of FBS teams and margins of victory must definitely be due to the fact it is the offseason and we need to keep our critical acumen sharp. :) Therefore, some homework on other FCS teams last 12 games vs. FBS teams (record, margin of victory, rank of FBS opponent, # of NFL players on said FBS and FCS team from that matchup) might be in order. I will not be undertaking that task. Cheers! xdrunkyx

[Redbird 4th & short]

I don't know if people really think the Bison are currently or would consistently be a top 20 team (I do not), and I am not even sure the SBNation piece is even trying to indicate this, as there are 49 teams listed before they get to the "would probably lose to NDSU" category. I for one think they would be a very competitive G5 team in whatever conference they might be in, and if in a P5 conference, I think they could develop into a mid-level team in that conference, with a big win over a top team per year (or every other year). These are mighty big "what-ifs", and I am (and I think most Bison fans are) satisfied with the Bison winning FCS championships and with their performance against FBS teams since joining Division I.

Also, FBS is FBS, so critiquing rankings of FBS teams and margins of victory must definitely be due to the fact it is the offseason and we need to keep our critical acumen sharp. :) Therefore, some homework on other FCS teams last 12 games vs. FBS teams (record, margin of victory, rank of FBS opponent, # of NFL players on said FBS and FCS team from that matchup) might be in order. I will not be undertaking that task. Cheers! xdrunkyx
Agreed ... and only a few posters are suggesting or inferring top 20/30 in FBS .... most Bison fans are rationale or been quiet about this. But this is the point being debated on this thread and some (not necessarily Bison) have. None of this is meant to take anything away from what they have accomplished.

But agree, "as is", with 63 schollies, they would be a top 3 G5 team in good years (2013, 2018, and 2016) and top 10 in the other Natty years. Give them 85 schollies, and maybe they would become a middle of road P5 team. Someone else mentioned one particular area of need at next level ... WR. The problem there is their offensive system is built entirely around their run game .. what good WR would want to go to NDSU ? Which speaks to other issue I cited ... the FBS game is much more about putting players in space to make plays. NDSU model does not work that way .. everything they do is built to control the trenches, control the play clock, and out-executing opponents .. leading with the run game on offense, then playing great overall defense.

Think about Carson Wentz's time at NDSU ... he could have done so much more in another program, FBS level for sure. But they didn't need him to, and they weren't going to change their model for 1 guy. There is an overused quip about Michael Jordan that applies here:

- Name the only coach to ever hold Michael Jordan under 20 points per game ...................... Dean Smith.

And like NDSU, no one questions Dean Smith because he was regular in final four doing it his way .. 11 final fours, 2 Nattys, 27 seasons with 20+ wins, etc.

Interesting debate, but you're right .. it's offseason, and sadly much longer for some of us than others !! xbawlingx

xdrunkyx

[Preferred Walk-On]

Agreed ... and only a few posters are suggesting or inferring top 20/30 in FBS .... most Bison fans are rationale or been quiet about this. But this is the point being debated on this thread and some (not necessarily Bison) have. None of this is meant to take anything away from what they have accomplished.

But agree, "as is", with 63 schollies, they would be a top 3 G5 team in good years (2013, 2018, and 2016) and top 10 in the other Natty years. Give them 85 schollies, and maybe they would become a middle of road P5 team. Someone else mentioned one particular area of need at next level ... WR. The problem there is their offensive system is built entirely around their run game .. what good WR would want to go to NDSU ? Which speaks to other issue I cited ... the FBS game is much more about putting players in space to make plays. NDSU model does not work that way .. everything they do is built to control the trenches, control the play clock, and out-executing opponents .. leading with the run game on offense, then playing great overall defense.

Think about Carson Wentz's time at NDSU ... he could have done so much more in another program, FBS level for sure. But they didn't need him to, and they weren't going to change their model for 1 guy. There is an overused quip about Michael Jordan that applies here:

- Name the only coach to ever hold Michael Jordan under 20 points per game ...................... Dean Smith.

And like NDSU, no one questions Dean Smith because he was regular in final four doing it his way .. 11 final fours, 2 Nattys, 27 seasons with 20+ wins, etc.

Interesting debate, but you're right .. it's offseason, and sadly much longer for some of us than others !! xbawlingx

xdrunkyx

I agree with almost everything said above. NDSU will have some difficulty recruiting FBS-prototype receivers due to the fact that the WR will not be featured. However, Darrius Shephard showed in a few games this year (including the championship this and last year) that NDSU does use a methodical passing game where a receiver can stand-out and be successful. But you and other posters on this forum have pointed this out as a perennial roster "weakness", and I don't necessarily disagree.

The only thing I disagree with is the absolute need to put players in space to make plays. Army was 11-2 with a triple option and an above-average defense. If you are talking competing P5, then yes, I would agree having players that can create space and win in space sets those top teams apart from middle-of-the-pack teams. But to be successful at the G5 level does not require this.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I agree with almost everything said above. NDSU will have some difficulty recruiting FBS-prototype receivers due to the fact that the WR will not be featured. However, Darrius Shephard showed in a few games this year (including the championship this and last year) that NDSU does use a methodical passing game where a receiver can stand-out and be successful. But you and other posters on this forum have pointed this out as a perennial roster "weakness", and I don't necessarily disagree.

The only thing I disagree with is the absolute need to put players in space to make plays. Army was 11-2 with a triple option and an above-average defense. If you are talking competing P5, then yes, I would agree having players that can create space and win in space sets those top teams apart from middle-of-the-pack teams. But to be successful at the G5 level does not require this.

well then we agree entirely .. I think they would do very well at G5 level "as is" .. meaning, still just 63 scholllies and no change to their offensive system.