Rating 2007 Schedules

[Col Hogan]

Thanks to the hard work of UNHWildCats (Travis, you da man xbowx ) I had an easy way to start looking at the upcoming schedules and laying some sort of rating on them.

To start the discussion, I simply went to the 2006 Sagarin D-I Ratings (I know, not everyone likes them, but it's a starting point for the discussion).

Taking the spreadsheets that Travis created, I added rows to put in each schools Sagarin rating, pumped in a simple formula, and came up with some numbers.

I'll start out with the CAA, and maybe get to other conferences later...or maybe some else will do the same for their own conference.

Here's what I found for the CAA:

Toughest 2007 schedule based on last years Sagarin Ratings:

Northeastern 57.77
Villanova 57.68
William & Mary 56.76
UMass 55.36
URI 55.18
Maine 54.40
Hofstra 54.17
Richmond 54.10
JMU 53.00
Towson 52.77
UNH 52.70
Delaware 52.11 * one non D-I school w/no Sagarin Rating

Discuss.......

[UNHWildCats]

maybe help out by supplying the formula ;)

[Col Hogan]

maybe help out by supplying the formula ;)

Download the excel spreadsheet that is offered on the above post...

Insert a row under each team

Get the Sagarin Ratings on line, and put that rating under the appropriate team

Insert on the far right end of the ratings row the formula

I used simple one that adds the ratings and divides by 11 (# of games)

Depending on the row, that should look like this: =SUM(D14:O14)/11 with the row/column relating to your spread sheet.

[leatherneck177]

I am not sure what WIU's schedule rating would be, but they have one of the hardest schedules for FCS schools in the country.

[Col Hogan]

I am not sure what WIU's schedule rating would be, but they have one of the hardest schedules for FCS schools in the country.

Run the numbers, and let's discuss.....

[AZGrizFan]

I am not sure what WIU's schedule rating would be, but they have one of the hardest schedules for FCS schools in the country.

I'd be SHOCKED if it beats Southern Utah's. xeyebrowx xeekx

[89Hen]

I'm no mathmetician, but wouldn't it make sense that the better teams are going to have an weaker number right off the bat because they can't play themselves?xcoffeex

[Col Hogan]

I am not sure what WIU's schedule rating would be, but they have one of the hardest schedules for FCS schools in the country.

It would be the lowest ranked in the CAA - 51.43 You have a non-DI team with no Sagarin ranking.

[Col Hogan]

I'm no mathmetician, but wouldn't it make sense that the better teams are going to have an weaker number right off the bat because they can't play themselves?xcoffeex

Starting point for discussion only. It compares the rankings of the teams your team will play, using Sagarin. I know there are difrferences between last years teams and this years teams...just a starting point...only concrete thing we can us right now...

[OL FU]

Sagarin always rates the A-10 too highxrolleyesx

[89Hen]

Starting point for discussion only. It compares the rankings of the teams your team will play, using Sagarin. I know there are difrferences between last years teams and this years teams...just a starting point...only concrete thing we can us right now...
I'm not sure I got my point across (it is a minor point anyway).

To oversimplify it, if you have three teams with a ranking of 1, 5 and 10 and they all play each other, the team that is ranked #1 would have an SOS average of 7.5 while the team ranked #10 would have an SOS average of 2.5.

I just don't like computer models because there is never enough data to make them accurate.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I'm no mathmetician, but wouldn't it make sense that the better teams are going to have an weaker number right off the bat because they can't play themselves?xcoffeex

You took the words right out of my mouth. Hard to compare schedules like that, although it is a tool.

I think you have to look at more nitty gritty details to figure it out. For example, JMU has a manageable FBS game vs. UNC, then 4 home games. 2 away, 1 home, 2 away, 1 home. This pattern is very good for a strong start that can build confidence and momentum for the rest of the year. Just ask NU how starting the first 5 games on the road went! xrotatehx

Away games at UD, W&M, URI, NU in conference. NU could surprise us, but I think Delaware will be the toughest test away from home by far. OOC is not bad - VMI and CCU at home! :D

I haven't looked so closely at the other schools' schedules, but my guess is JMU's is one of the easiest by far. Very good for a "reloading" year to hopefully make the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since the '94-'95 seasons.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Sagarin always rates the A-10 too highxrolleyesx

Maybe, but not the CAA!!! xsmiley_wix

[OL FU]

Maybe, but not the CAA!!! xsmiley_wix

You weren't the CAA last year:p

I will let you know at the end of this year whether Sagarin rates the CAA too highxsmiley_wix

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I know there was no CAA last year silly, therefor the xsmiley_wix :p

Now go out there and beat the hell out of the rest of the SoCon fellow Purple School! xthumbsupx

[OL FU]

I know there was no CAA last year silly, therefor the xsmiley_wix :p

Now go out there and beat the hell out of the rest of the SoCon fellow Purple School! xthumbsupx

xsmiley_wix xthumbsupx

[DTSpider]

JMU's schedule does set up well. I'm a little worried as UR starts off with 3 in a row, and has 4 of the first 5, on the road. Lone home game is UNH.

I guess we'll quickly find out how good the young D will be.

[OL FU]

I should not be posting today. Just re read the thread and realized that you only listed CAA teams.

xbowx as he backs slowly out of thread:o

[dbackjon]

I should not be posting today. Just re read the thread and realized that you only listed CAA teams.

xbowx as he backs slowly out of thread:o

Someone start happy hour early?

[OL FU]

Someone start happy hour early?

It's 4PM in SCxnodx

[NE MT GRIZZ]

How is NDSU not on the list based on their 2006 schedule?

[ChickenMan]

Sagarin always rates the A-10 too highxrolleyesx



http://theotherpage.com/images/redneck.jpg


southern bias... :D

[appfan2008]

I bet you suu will have the toughest schedule when you break it down... that one sure is gonna be a bitch

[appfan2008]

also... i wonder if playing michigan will send our schedule through the roof... but i dont know because we wont have to play ourselves so that drops it a bit

[Col Hogan]

also... i wonder if playing michigan will send our schedule through the roof... but i dont know because we wont have to play ourselves so that drops it a bit

I'm still working on OCON. Since I'm applying the same formula to all the teams, you empty spots hurt the average. Plug in a good team, and it goes up. I'm also giving non-DI teams a zero since they don't count for the playoffs (and I don't have rating #s for them.)

I just got back on-line (*#cking cable company) so I'll post some more soon.

[*****]

I suggest using Massey, Sagarin doesn't take into account all the opponents FCS plays so is inherently flawed.

[Col Hogan]

OK, Let's do SOCON. Now, remember, the same formula for each team. An open spot (other than the one normal off weekend) gets you zero points in the formula...and a non D-I team gets you zero because I only have Sagarin numbers for the 241 D-I teams.

This rating also does not take into effect losses and gains on the teams and coaching staffs...home vs away games...etc. Just a starting point for discussion using last years data...not a computer model, just some spreadsheet math.

SOCON

Wofford 40.68 - one non D-I team
ASU 42.23 - two holes
Citadel 47.26 - one non D-I team
Elon 47.42 - one non D-I team
Furman 48.36 - no #s for Presby
Georgia Southern 48.84 - one non D-I team
Chattanooga 49.93 - one non- D-I team
WCU 51.97 - no #s for Presby

Now, I'm not saying Appy has a weak schedule...in fact, modify the formula and they come out at 51.61 for the teams scheduled (yes, including Michigan which has a 90.74 Sagarin rating)

Just a starting point for some discussion...

[Col Hogan]

I suggest using Massey, Sagarin doesn't take into account all the opponents FCS plays so is inherently flawed.

Agree...but since if D-II teams don't count for the playoffs, why count them in a ranking of schedlues (I'm not calling it SOS)?

I'll start over if I'm wrong...

[Col Hogan]

Gateway

UNI 44.27 - one hole, one non D-I team
Southern Illinois 47.49 - one non D-I team
YSU 49.82 - one non D-I team
Missouri State 49.89 - one non D-I team
Illinois State 53.37
Indiana State 52.02
Western Illinois 52.10 - one non D-I team

For example, take the non D-I team out of YSUs schedule, and they climb to 54.8

[UNHWildCats]

Agree...but since if D-II teams don't count for the playoffs, why count them in a ranking of schedlues (I'm not calling it SOS)?

I'll start over if I'm wrong...

OK so you dont want to count them ranking schedules then you shouldnt penalize them eiother :p

[Col Hogan]

I'll rework them...with all rankings...thanks Ralph and Travis for input...

[paytonlives]

In case you forgot... Southern Utah plays 10 ranked teams!!! xeekx xeekx

Date – Opponent – Time
Sept. 1 – At Montana – 1:05 pm
Sept. 8 – North Dakota – 6:00 pm
Sept. 15 – Southern Illinois – 6:00 pm
Sept. 22 – McNeese State – 6:00 pm
Sept. 29 – Open
Oct. 6 – At Montana State – 1:35 pm
Oct. 13 – At Youngstown State – 4:00 pm
Oct. 20 – UC Davis* – 1:00 pm
Oct. 27 – At North Dakota State* – 1:00 pm
Nov. 3 – Cal Poly* – 1:00 pm
Nov. 10 – At South Dakota State* – 1:00 pm
Nov. 17 – At Northern Iowa – 5:05 p.m.

CEDAR CITY, Utah, March 19 – Southern Utah University’s 2007 football schedule will be a challenging one, to say the least. The Thunderbirds will square off against nine teams which finished the 2006 season ranked in the NCAA Championship Subdivision top-25, while the team’s lone Division II opponent was ranked seventh in the final D-II rankings.

Fans in Cedar City will be able to see the Thunderbirds host three of last year’s top-25, including Southern Illinois, which finished last season ranked No. 7, No. 16 Cal Poly and No. 21 McNeese State. In addition to those three, UC Davis, which spent most of 2006 in the to-25 before finishing 28th, as well as North Dakota, which finished the season ranked seventh in Division II.

Also included on the schedule are road games at No. 3 Montana, No. 4 Youngstown State, No. 5 North Dakota State, No. 10 Montana State, No. 17 Northern Iowa and No. 22 South Dakota State.

SUU Coach Wes Meier is upbeat about the opportunity to play such a demanding schedule. “This will be a hard schedule but to be one of the best I-AA teams you have to play the best,” he points out. “I would rather play the toughest teams rather than the easiest. Our expectations are high, even though we lost some key players from last year and we’re still working toward becoming fully-funded at this level.”

[gr8ness97]

^ guess they arent getting a win, eh?

[GABison]

Personally, I think SUU has THEE toughest schedule in FCS. Something sure seems flawed to not have them in the top 12 of the original post. Aren't those twelve pretty much all east coast teams?xeyebrowx

[Col Hogan]

Personally, I think SUU has THEE toughest schedule in FCS. Something sure seems flawed to not have them in the top 12 of the original post. Aren't those twelve pretty much all east coast teams?xeyebrowx

I did it by conference, starting with the CAA. I'm reworking it with a rating service other than Sagarin, and will have it out next week sometime. I should have all conferences by then...

[Saint3333]

I'm no mathmetician, but wouldn't it make sense that the better teams are going to have an weaker number right off the bat because they can't play themselves?xcoffeex

As these are only conference rankings, maybe it would be easier just to compare the OOC games for the conferences that play everyone in the conference (sorry A10).

[Col Hogan]

As these are only conference rankings, maybe it would be easier just to compare the OOC games for the conferences that play everyone in the conference (sorry A10).

Confused look on face!!!!!xconfusedx xconfusedx

Because the CAA teams are overall rated higher than other conferences from top to bottom, you feel I should leave them out? How do you measure a schedule if you don't measure all games, just OOC?

SOCON has the highest rated team in FCS in all rating services, and the in-conference rating of the other SOCON teams needs to reflect that they play ASU. CAA teams have to beat-up on each other to get a playoff spot...that needs to be reflected in any measurement.

Am I missing something here? xconfusedx xconfusedx

[GABison]

I did it by conference, starting with the CAA. I'm reworking it with a rating service other than Sagarin, and will have it out next week sometime. I should have all conferences by then...

Sorry, my mistake. I should have read your original post a little closer. Missed the sentence about it being the CAA. I thought it was for all of FCS. Keep up the hard work. Thanksxthumbsupx

[MplsBison]

No way SUU isn't the hardest in the country.

10 top 25 FCS team and a top 10 DII team.

[Fresno St. Alum]

SUU, easy winner for #1 schedule. 1-10? 0-11? 2-9? Who will they beat?

[Seawolf97]

This is extreme scheduling - no breaks all season !xsmhx xsmhx

[Saint3333]

Confused look on face!!!!!xconfusedx xconfusedx

Because the CAA teams are overall rated higher than other conferences from top to bottom, you feel I should leave them out? How do you measure a schedule if you don't measure all games, just OOC?

SOCON has the highest rated team in FCS in all rating services, and the in-conference rating of the other SOCON teams needs to reflect that they play ASU. CAA teams have to beat-up on each other to get a playoff spot...that needs to be reflected in any measurement.

Am I missing something here? xconfusedx xconfusedx

Your first post only included A-10 teams, therefore if you're going to discuss this topic by conferences (and to address 89's point) you really only need to look at the OOC games.

You only need to look at the conference games when comparing schools from different conferences, which you weren't. BTW not ever post an ASU fan makes has an underlying ASU bais or inference, sorry for the confusion.

[UNHWildCats]

Your first post only included A-10 teams, therefore if you're going to discuss this topic by conferences (and to address 89's point) you really only need to look at the OOC games.

You only need to look at the conference games when comparing schools from different conferences, which you weren't. BTW not ever post an ASU fan makes has an underlying ASU bais or inference, sorry for the confusion.

Initially he was hoping someone from each conference would do the formula so that every FCS team had a ranmking he as a fan of a CAA team diod the CAA Conerence I dont think his intent was to ever discuss it simply by conference he just didnt have thje time to calculate very team.

[appfan2008]

Initially he was hoping someone from each conference would do the formula so that every FCS team had a ranmking he as a fan of a CAA team diod the CAA Conerence I dont think his intent was to ever discuss it simply by conference he just didnt have thje time to calculate very team.
Its too bad no one did have the time and its too bad asu doesnt have a schedule to comparexsmhx

[Tilldog40]

Not surprised NU has the toughest schedule again. Last year the NCAA said we had the toughest schedule in the country. At least we get to play at home in september this year.

[Col Hogan]

Its too bad no one did have the time and its too bad asu doesnt have a schedule to comparexsmhx

And that caused me some issues as I did the SOCON schedule...how to account for holes. ASU is not the only team, but it is the biggest hole!!!

I am continuing to work on all schedules...I started over using some diffeent dat as recommended by several folks...hope to have it out late this week for all to discuss.

[UNHWildCats]

Hey djp im gonna send you a prvt message

[ASU]

Sagarin always rates the A-10 too highxrolleyesx
That is certainly true....have watched that for years. Much be A-10 alums doing the numbers....or making them up.xcoffeex

[ASU]

Helmets off to Southern Utah....that is quite a mean looking schedule.
Love the coaches comment, which I have stated many times, "If you want to be the best, you have to play the best." If they have a winning record they should be considered for the playoffs.

[UNHWildCats]

Helmets off to Southern Utah....that is quite a mean looking schedule.
Love the coaches comment, which I have stated many times, "If you want to be the best, you have to play the best." If they have a winning record they should be considered for the playoffs.

If they come out of that 7-4 they should make the playoffs. I just dont see them even sniffinf 7 wins xcoolx

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

So basically SUU's playoffs start on Sept 1 @ Montana. Brutal!

[OL FU]

http://theotherpage.com/images/redneck.jpg


southern bias... :D

My out house has four walls around it.xnodx :p :D

[RabidRabbit]

Download the excel spreadsheet that is offered on the above post...

Insert a row under each team

Get the Sagarin Ratings on line, and put that rating under the appropriate team

Insert on the far right end of the ratings row the formula

I used simple one that adds the ratings and divides by 11 (# of games)

Depending on the row, that should look like this: =SUM(D14:O14)/11 with the row/column relating to your spread sheet.

I'm not certain how you came up with Sagarin #'s below 100 for the FCS schools, if you used the FULL D-I (BS & CS)Sagarins rating. xconfusedx

With that said, and using the Full Sagarin's rating #'s, the GWFC numbers stack up like below. I did assign arbitrary # of 250 for UND, and 300 for W. WA & W.OR, the three D-II's that fit onto the schedules in the GREAT WEST.

SUU - 1209/11 = 109.91
NDSU - 1378/11 = 125.27
SDSU - 1412/11 = 128.37
UCD - 1425/11 = 129.55
Cal Poly 1840/11 = 167.27

Yes, I believe that SUU has the toughest schedule in the FCS ranks, but NDSU, SDSU & UCD are not slouch schedules either. NDSU has two FBS schools and no D-II's or non/limited schollies. IMHO, Poly is going to need a 8-3 or 9-2 or better to make the play-offs. SUU is praying to not be goose egged!xwhistlex xwhistlex

[youwouldno]

The methodology, even with the correction to fix the non D-I penalty that made no sense, is still flawed. In 2005 the A-10 was the 6th best conference... who is to say the CAA will be more like the 2006 A-10 than the 2005 version?

In fact, since conference strength tends to be cyclical, there is every reason to expect a regression to the mean. Using last year's numbers is pointless and says relatively little about next season.

[UNHWildCats]

what if you were to use a formula that calcualates opponents win % and opponents opponents win % using your opponents on 2/3 weight and opponents opponents on 1/3 weight but excluding the opponents opponents win % for FBS and sub Div I teams?

While I agree the numbers mean less when talking about calculating them for the preseason but it can still be a somewhat fair barometer to a teams schedule strength and the numbers could be updated weekly during the season.