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walliver
July 3rd, 2019, 10:26 AM
Wofford has never really been a true split veer option team like Georgia Southern was and the Citadel is. Conklin has stated his desire to become more of a passing threat offensively.

The difference to this point is that Wofford, offensively, has tried to live in two worlds. They want to throw more, but their QBs are not particularly good passers. Perhaps this Derrick kid is a guy that will fit the mold of a QB who is more of a passing threat that can also run option instead of an option QB that can occasionally heave the ball down the field.

Wofford ran a true TO in the late 90's and early 2000's, but has been slowly moving away from that since. Wade Lang has been trying to add a passing game since 2002 with only limited success and every year we would hear talk about opening up the offense. From what I have heard, this year the plan is to actually open up the offense with more effective passing. It's hard to recruit great option QB's when very few high schools run the triple option. Also, most HS option QB's tend to be small and have trouble seeing over the heads of their linemen, which really hurts the passing game.

The TO is a beautiful offense when it clicks, but extremely frustrating when it doesn't. Georgia Southern made it work for so many years by having FBS quality players running their offense.

walliver
July 3rd, 2019, 10:34 AM
Randy Smith is a Douche. As another poster put it...he doesn't realize that the average Chattanoogan doesn't see a difference in MTSU, Chattanooga or Carson-Newman. All are D2, in their eyes. If you ain't SEC, you ain't Division 1. So that said, most of the Fan Base actually realizes that the SoCon is a good fit for UTC for Football and all the other sports. A SunBelt affiliation would increase out Travel budget tremendously for other sports and would not really bring in more fans than we already see. While I would love to see the mocs play App State and GaSo on a regular basis again, Texas St, Ark St and Coastal are not going to fill the stands. SunBelt is not the answer. A few years back there was talk of the OVC and with TTU, UTM, APSU all being instate, that almost made sense....almost. the SoCon is Chattanooga's home and it isn't going to change. And as bad of an idea making a conference change to try and fill the stadium for football home games is....it canonly be compounded by making that conference the SunBelt!!!!

The Sun Belt has shown interest in Chattanooga in the past. But the Sun Belt adds nothing. CCU has been very creative with tickets just to meet the FBS minimum - Sun Belt rivalries are not going to bring in local fans. I don't see how Chattanooga would be any different. If the Mocs somehow got into C-USA, they would have a decent crowd hosting MTSU every other year, but none of the other teams would be interesting and travel expenses would bankrupt the program.

Short of UT-Knoxville dropping football, nothing much is going to change.

Some sports writers spend too much time watching ESPN, and not enough doing their actual jobs.

Milktruck74
July 3rd, 2019, 10:38 AM
Spot on. cUSA would be good for mBb and wBB, but would be awful for FB...and they wouldn’t even give a glance at UTC.


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PaladinFan
July 3rd, 2019, 11:35 AM
Wofford ran a true TO in the late 90's and early 2000's, but has been slowly moving away from that since. Wade Lang has been trying to add a passing game since 2002 with only limited success and every year we would hear talk about opening up the offense. From what I have heard, this year the plan is to actually open up the offense with more effective passing. It's hard to recruit great option QB's when very few high schools run the triple option. Also, most HS option QB's tend to be small and have trouble seeing over the heads of their linemen, which really hurts the passing game.

The TO is a beautiful offense when it clicks, but extremely frustrating when it doesn't. Georgia Southern made it work for so many years by having FBS quality players running their offense.

Wofford's approach has been, at times, slightly perplexing.

From what I can tell, they want to transition out of a pure option based attack, but never really seem to full commit to finding the personnel to do that. Their best QB (Newman) is more of an option-type player with a career completion percentage rate at .570 and an upside down INT/TD ratio. I like Newman a lot as a player, but he's not a guy you want throwing the ball 15 times a game.

Also peculiar is they don't seem to be recruiting that sort of QB. Last season, Wofford had 5 QBs on roster, none taller than 5'11 (i.e., most likely option players). They did not, I believe, take a QB in this recruiting class and then announced Derrick's transfer in March. At 6'2, Derrick is half a head taller than every other QB on Wofford's roster and is most like a dual-threat type player they've really lacked.

Just seems to me like you either need a roster full of option-type players who run the option, or start recruiting bigger dual-threat guys that are going to run something else. Hard to recruit one to operate an offense designed for the other.

GreenGlasses
July 3rd, 2019, 12:18 PM
The Sun Belt has shown interest in Chattanooga in the past. But the Sun Belt adds nothing. CCU has been very creative with tickets just to meet the FBS minimum - Sun Belt rivalries are not going to bring in local fans. I don't see how Chattanooga would be any different. If the Mocs somehow got into C-USA, they would have a decent crowd hosting MTSU every other year, but none of the other teams would be interesting and travel expenses would bankrupt the program.

Short of UT-Knoxville dropping football, nothing much is going to change.

Some sports writers spend too much time watching ESPN, and not enough doing their actual jobs.

What do you consider decent. They might draw 12-14K for a game like that. Right now Finley Stadium holds just a tad over 20K and UTC can't even avg 10K, they aved under 9K last year. Attendance has been down across the county in all divisions, but its been going down steadily in Chattanooga for more than a few years now.

Nor Eastern
July 3rd, 2019, 02:06 PM
What do you consider decent. They might draw 12-14K for a game like that. Right now Finley Stadium holds just a tad over 20K and UTC can't even avg 10K, they aved under 9K last year. Attendance has been down across the county in all divisions, but its been going down steadily in Chattanooga for more than a few years now.



MTSU also draws flies. They averaged 15,577 this year and that's hosting both an instate UT Martin, rival WKU and the CUSA championship game.

walliver
July 3rd, 2019, 02:25 PM
Wofford's approach has been, at times, slightly perplexing.

From what I can tell, they want to transition out of a pure option based attack, but never really seem to full commit to finding the personnel to do that. Their best QB (Newman) is more of an option-type player with a career completion percentage rate at .570 and an upside down INT/TD ratio. I like Newman a lot as a player, but he's not a guy you want throwing the ball 15 times a game.

Also peculiar is they don't seem to be recruiting that sort of QB. Last season, Wofford had 5 QBs on roster, none taller than 5'11 (i.e., most likely option players). They did not, I believe, take a QB in this recruiting class and then announced Derrick's transfer in March. At 6'2, Derrick is half a head taller than every other QB on Wofford's roster and is most like a dual-threat type player they've really lacked.

Just seems to me like you either need a roster full of option-type players who run the option, or start recruiting bigger dual-threat guys that are going to run something else. Hard to recruit one to operate an offense designed for the other.

I suspect recruiting has been a challenge since it is hard to recruit a dual threat QB to a program which rarely throws the ball. It also creates challenges recruiting receivers when they find out their primary job will be blocking. Over the last few years we have made some progress in the offensive line. We have always had great lines when it comes to run blocking schemes, but it wasn't until the last year or so that we have been able to provide any pass protection at all. When efforts were made to increase the pass game 4-5 years ago, the vast majority of passing plays either led to sacks, QB runs or rushed passes. Prior to that was an era when taller passing QB's were recruited with the hope of teaching them the option. Unfortunately, IMHO, running the option is a skill that players either innately understand or struggle with - too many of them struggled with the option.

PaladinNation
July 3rd, 2019, 09:50 PM
I'm really curious to see what happens with Wofford's offensive identity as Conklin and Lang continue to tinker.
As a Furman fan, I've felt Furman lost its offensive identity after the Ingle Martin era combined with Clay leaving for Air Force.
It would scare me if I was a Terrier fan about what this means in the long run? Maybe, Conklin's goal is just what's needed to get Wofford further in the playoffs.

PaladinFan
July 4th, 2019, 07:03 AM
I suspect recruiting has been a challenge since it is hard to recruit a dual threat QB to a program which rarely throws the ball. It also creates challenges recruiting receivers when they find out their primary job will be blocking. Over the last few years we have made some progress in the offensive line. We have always had great lines when it comes to run blocking schemes, but it wasn't until the last year or so that we have been able to provide any pass protection at all. When efforts were made to increase the pass game 4-5 years ago, the vast majority of passing plays either led to sacks, QB runs or rushed passes. Prior to that was an era when taller passing QB's were recruited with the hope of teaching them the option. Unfortunately, IMHO, running the option is a skill that players either innately understand or struggle with - too many of them struggled with the option.

I think Furman has really tried to strike that balance with their new (actually old) offensive system under Hendrix.

They want to be able to go to the option when necessary, but the offense is not built around that.

Milktruck74
July 4th, 2019, 07:18 AM
MTSU also draws flies. They averaged 15,577 this year and that's hosting both an instate UT Martin, rival WKU and the CUSA championship game.

And with an announced number of 15k, how many butts were actually in the seats? Chattanooga is pretty good about keeping the number real. If they announce 9k, they are pretty close to that.


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Nor Eastern
July 4th, 2019, 08:28 AM
I watched the CUSA Championship game of UAB at MTSU and if there were 2,500 people there I'd eat dirt with a smile.

GreenGlasses
July 4th, 2019, 10:22 PM
MTSU also draws flies. They averaged 15,577 this year and that's hosting both an instate UT Martin, rival WKU and the CUSA championship game.

Why do you think I topped the game out at 12-14K instead of close to a sell out. If UTC somehow got into CUSA my guess is more Marshall fans would show up in Chattanooga than MTSU fans showing up.

Laker
July 5th, 2019, 09:03 PM
If ETSU ever starts selling alcohol at games, they should serve this Japanese gin.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D-wc0OrXYAE7XJf.jpg

gofurman
July 6th, 2019, 09:06 PM
I updated the first post with transfers etc. Please look at your team and let me know what I am missing or overlooked - or if I have someone returning that graduated or left. I certainly could/will have mistakes... I want to use this to have a good preseason look at each team... for everyone. thanks!

Reign of Terrier
July 8th, 2019, 08:16 AM
I'm really curious to see what happens with Wofford's offensive identity as Conklin and Lang continue to tinker.
As a Furman fan, I've felt Furman lost its offensive identity after the Ingle Martin era combined with Clay leaving for Air Force.
It would scare me if I was a Terrier fan about what this means in the long run? Maybe, Conklin's goal is just what's needed to get Wofford further in the playoffs.

If anything, the option has held us back in the playoffs. The TL;DR of why the option "is beautiful when it works" and is "ugly when it isn't" is because decent defenses are gap sound and gap soundness is one of the most effective ways to stop the option. If you look at modern FCS teams that run the option in the playoffs (Kennesaw State, Wofford, and the Citadel), they struggle to score 30 or even 20 points in most of their games (at one point, I had the specific number, but it's unnecessary here). Georgia Southern was the exception, possibility because they had better athletes and at least partially because opposes defenses weren't as gap sound as they were today.

The option used to truly be a gimmick, that was hard to prepare for, but some time in the 90s, with the creation of the spread offenses and the success of Nebraska's option, teams started integrating option concepts into their gameplan, defending it more in practice, and the best defenses became better at defending it. Now, contemporary flexbone offenses aren't innovative, so much as they are severely limited, not because they run the option, but because they only run the option and they only do so in a limited number of formations. Wofford's solution (even to this point) has been to create more formations to run the option, but it doesn't neutralize the advantage of truly elite defenses in defending us.

So, in short, I'm not worried yet. Last year, with these Conklin innovations, we did a lot better than in years prior in terms of raw statistics. When we have a thriving pass game, we also have a thriving run game. Conklin's innovations this year are going to be more interesting: we're running more plays out of the I formation.

So, I'm not worried. There are graceful and ungraceful ways to transition out of the option, and I think this is how it's done.

PaladinFan
July 8th, 2019, 02:18 PM
From what you describe, it certainly sounds like Wofford wants to adopt a version of what Furman currently runs. Furman's offensive system is simply a more modernized version of what the Paladins did for a long time prior to roughly 2008.

Realistically, it would seem Wofford could simply run its current offense, but just work in more passing. The Terriers already spend a lot of time out of the shotgun, but most of their team is still built for that grinding run game. To me, the missing piece is a QB that is a quality passer. Most of Wofford's current QBs are "option first" run then throw types.

SU DOG
July 8th, 2019, 03:13 PM
PF, in your opinion, who will be the starter at QB for Furman? For Samford, it seems that Liam Welch and xfer Chris Oladokun were neck and neck coming out of ST.

PaladinFan
July 8th, 2019, 03:38 PM
PF, in your opinion, who will be the starter at QB for Furman? For Samford, it seems that Liam Welch and xfer Chris Oladokun were neck and neck coming out of ST.

Hard to say.

Last season it was a bit of a mixed bag outside of Harris Roberts. Roberts missed a good bit of time over the course of the season and Furman played three different freshmen in his stead.

Most of the QB2 snaps went to Darren Grainger. Grainger was raw. He spent one year as a HS QB in an offense that wasn't particularly sophisticated. The tools are there - particularly his foot speed and throwing arm. What he lacks (IMO) are some of the intangibles of playing QB, specifically ball security. He had crippling fumbles against Samford and Elon and a number of poor throws into coverage resulting in interceptions. Furman's offense cannot abide turnovers.

Hamp Sisson is another freshman that played a bit last year as well. Sisson, in my opinion, is probably a more polished QB than Grainger, but doesn't have the raw physical tools. I guess could say Grainger has a higher ceiling and Sisson a higher floor.

Furman also announced Luke Shiflett, an MTSU transfer, this spring. Shiflett came to MTSU as a QB, but was athletic enough to play 14 games as a WR. It appears that MTSU viewed him more as a WR than a QB, so he transferred to a place where he could compete at QB.

I doubt we'll know anything until right before the season. It wouldn't shock me to see Furman use multiple QBs. Furman has 6 QBs on the roster, and none older than a sophomore.

gofurman
July 9th, 2019, 10:16 PM
Hard to say.

Last season it was a bit of a mixed bag outside of Harris Roberts. Roberts missed a good bit of time over the course of the season and Furman played three different freshmen in his stead.

Most of the QB2 snaps went to Darren Grainger. Grainger was raw. He spent one year as a HS QB in an offense that wasn't particularly sophisticated. The tools are there - particularly his foot speed and throwing arm. What he lacks (IMO) are some of the intangibles of playing QB, specifically ball security. He had crippling fumbles against Samford and Elon and a number of poor throws into coverage resulting in interceptions. Furman's offense cannot abide turnovers.

Hamp Sisson is another freshman that played a bit last year as well. Sisson, in my opinion, is probably a more polished QB than Grainger, but doesn't have the raw physical tools. I guess could say Grainger has a higher ceiling and Sisson a higher floor.

Furman also announced Luke Shiflett, an MTSU transfer, this spring. Shiflett came to MTSU as a QB, but was athletic enough to play 14 games as a WR. It appears that MTSU viewed him more as a WR than a QB, so he transferred to a place where he could compete at QB.

I doubt we'll know anything until right before the season. It wouldn't shock me to see Furman use multiple QBs. Furman has 6 QBs on the roster, and none older than a sophomore.

SUDOG - I think PaladinFan is right on.. We have one guy w a lot of talent but VERY little experience (Grainger) as he only played one year of HS QB! ANd is a R-FR so he has a total of 2 years at QB. Sisson is thus more polished as played QB all of HS though probably is less talented? But has 5+ years of QB. The wildcard is the new transfer Shiflett who was given looks by ACC schools and then got hurt. Went to MTSU to play QB but was over-recruited .. MTSU had him play WR for every game his Freshman year so he is obviously a great athlete. He has 4 years of HS QB experience.

what's scary for us as FU Fans is that every QB on our roster is Sophomore or R-FR so there could be a tough learning curve this year.. what's scary for SoCon Furman opponents is we will have the same QB/s for the next 3 or 4 years if one or 2 are good ! I could really see us strong in 2020 as the QB will return along with 9 of our 10 starting OL !!

PaladinFan
July 9th, 2019, 11:28 PM
SUDOG - I think PaladinFan is right on.. We have one guy w a lot of talent but VERY little experience (Grainger) as he only played one year of HS QB! ANd is a R-FR so he has a total of 2 years at QB. Sisson is thus more polished as played QB all of HS though probably is less talented? But has 5+ years of QB. The wildcard is the new transfer Shiflett who was given looks by ACC schools and then got hurt. Went to MTSU to play QB but was over-recruited .. MTSU had him play WR for every game his Freshman year so he is obviously a great athlete. He has 4 years of HS QB experience.

what's scary for us as FU Fans is that every QB on our roster is Sophomore or R-FR so there could be a tough learning curve this year.. what's scary for SoCon Furman opponents is we will have the same QB/s for the next 3 or 4 years if one or 2 are good ! I could really see us strong in 2020 as the QB will return along with 9 of our 10 starting OL !!


While it would be nice to have a veteran QB to look to, it isn't the end of the world. A number of teams - Mercer, Samford, ETSU, and maybe Wofford - are going to be turning things over to guys that don't have a ton of experience at this level. So, yes, a QB is going to have to step up.

The good news is that most of the other pieces are in place.

This should be the best Furman defense we've seen since the mid-2000s. That will help keep pressure off the offense and gain field position.

The running game should be top-notch behind a good offensive line. That will take the pressure off the QB and allow the ground game to move the ball.

There are plenty of playmakers at the skill positions. The QB needs to get the ball to these guys in space and let them get chunks of yards.

The placekicker, Grayson Atkins, is among the best in the country. When you can hit field goals from Berea, there is a lot less pressure on the offense to get deep in the RedZone or to score touchdowns every drive. With Atkins' leg, Furman's offense really just needs to get the ball inside the 40 yard line to score.

Plenty can go wrong of course, and it'd have been nice to have some more veteran talent to look to, but the pieces are there.

FUBeAR
July 10th, 2019, 04:55 AM
LOL - PF Paying homage to one of my favorites from Sesame Street...ONE OF THESE THINGS IS NOT LIKE THE OTHERS...

Mercer only has a potential problem’ at QB if the Starter AND the backup...the 2017 SoCon Freshman of the Year, who has 19 games of experience under his belt, BOTH go down (like last year)...Of course, then, I guess they would be forced to turn it over to a FR...the GHSA Player of the Year, who has been playing QB his entire life...tossing it around in the back yard with the 2017 SEC FR of the Year, who is expected to contend for this year’s Hesiman, and be a Top 3 QB in the NFL draft. Barring catastrophe at the position (like last year), QB is the least of Mercer’s concerns.

PaladinFan
July 10th, 2019, 05:25 AM
LOL - PF Paying homage to one of my favorites from Sesame Street...ONE OF THESE THINGS IS NOT LIKE THE OTHERS...

Mercer only has a potential problem’ at QB if the Starter AND the backup...the 2017 SoCon Freshman of the Year, who has 19 games of experience under his belt, BOTH go down (like last year)...Of course, then, I guess they would be forced to turn it over to a FR...the GHSA Player of the Year, who has been playing QB his entire life...tossing it around in the back yard with the 2017 SEC FR of the Year, who is expected to contend for this year’s Hesiman, and be a Top 3 QB in the NFL draft. Barring catastrophe at the position (like last year), QB is the least of Mercer’s concerns.

Mercer's presumptive starting QB is Robert Riddle. Riddle has played in 4 games collegiately (same as Furman's Darren Grainger). He had some good games and some bad games (as you would expect from a freshman QB).

I didn't say Mercer has a "problem" at QB, but that they will be turning their offense over to a guy that does not have a ton of experience at the FCS level.

FUBeAR
July 10th, 2019, 08:31 AM
Mercer's presumptive starting QB is Robert Riddle. Riddle has played in 4 games collegiately (same as Furman's Darren Grainger). He had some good games and some bad games (as you would expect from a freshman QB).

I didn't say Mercer has a "problem" at QB, but that they will be turning their offense over to a guy that does not have a ton of experience at the FCS level.Um...yeah...as I said...

LOL &...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTIAmpj68r16hQetG4Ky60ijZhyJYv cCQl8qMc3UBku62B_D6oo

SU DOG
July 10th, 2019, 12:07 PM
Riddle could do no wrong against Samford. The guy can hurt you with his arm or legs, and his decision making was razor-sharp. I really don't think that lack of experience will be a factor for him this season. Personally, he scares me.

gofurman
July 10th, 2019, 09:18 PM
Riddle could do no wrong against Samford. The guy can hurt you with his arm or legs, and his decision making was razor-sharp. I really don't think that lack of experience will be a factor for him this season. Personally, he scares me.

Same here. Dude scares me. Bobby Lamb said Riddle is the best QB he has coached apart from Ingle Martin at Furman (Florida starter who only came to Furman because of coaching change and Chris Leak coming to Florida). Lamb knows QB s . That's HIGH praise. Very high praise. ANd that isn't fans.. that's the coach saying that.

Plus, Riddle played QB in HS. Furman's Grainger only played one year of QB in HS. That is a completely different experience level.

I think Riddle may present the most problems to opposing offenses this coming year... along w Adams at WCU. But Riddle has a better team around him.

PaladinFan
July 10th, 2019, 10:06 PM
Same here. Dude scares me. Bobby Lamb said Riddle is the best QB he has coached apart from Ingle Martin at Furman (Florida starter who only came to Furman because of coaching change and Chris Leak coming to Florida). Lamb knows QB s . That's HIGH praise. Very high praise. ANd that isn't fans.. that's the coach saying that.

Plus, Riddle played QB in HS. Furman's Grainger only played one year of QB in HS. That is a completely different experience level.

I think Riddle may present the most problems to opposing offenses this coming year... along w Adams at WCU. But Riddle has a better team around him.

I think everyone is in agreement Riddle is a good QB. That does not negate that he, along with a number of other likely starters this year, does not have a long track record at this level. Riddle has 4 career games under his belt, is coming off a season-ending injury, and will have the third offensive coordinator in three years at Mercer.

That's not novel to Mercer, though. Furman has a group of QBs that have not played a lot and weren't particularly good when they did. ETSU doesn't have a QB on their roster that threw a pass for them last season. Samford is going to choose between a rarely-used backup or transfer who played sparingly at USF. If Wofford decides to move away from the option a bit, they may go with a guy that didn't play much as a backup at App State last season.

Does that mean these teams can't set the world on fire offensively? No. It just means that more than just Furman have some "we'll see" at QB.

FUBeAR
July 10th, 2019, 10:53 PM
I think everyone is in agreement Riddle is a good QB. That does not negate that he, along with a number of other likely starters this year, does not have a long track record at this level. Riddle has 4 career games under his belt, is coming off a season-ending injury, and will have the third offensive coordinator in three years at Mercer.

That's not novel to Mercer, though. Furman has a group of QBs that have not played a lot and weren't particularly good when they did. ETSU doesn't have a QB on their roster that threw a pass for them last season. Samford is going to choose between a rarely-used backup or transfer who played sparingly at USF. If Wofford decides to move away from the option a bit, they may go with a guy that didn't play much as a backup at App State last season.

Does that mean these teams can't set the world on fire offensively? No. It just means that more than just Furman have some "we'll see" at QB.
Despite your continued attempts to associate & correlate Mercer’s QB situation with the other Teams mentioned, that dog ain’t gonna hunt in a petting zoo.

Fromm is a potential (next) Devlin Hodges. I was wrong in my 1st post. Dylan Fromm was named Mr. Georgia Football 2018 by the Atlanta TD Club. This was only the 3rd year of the award. The prior 2 winners are now the Starting QB’s for Ohio State & Georgia. He also enrolled early & has, what I understand was, a VERY impressive Spring Practice under his belt. Hopefully, he will be able to redshirt in 2019, but if it has to come off, hard to think he won’t be just a wee bit better than the 2018 3rd Team QB Mercer used down the stretch in games (losses - 2 of those VERY close losses) vs. all 3 SoCon Championship Teams...a walk-on who didn’t even start for his HS Team.

Riley is a proven SoCon Award-Winning QB with 19 games played on his impressive resume. Probably, or at the very least, possibly, the Starter for every other SoCon Team that is not ‘hard-core’ option or 1 that has Tyrie Adams taking their snaps.

Riddle was EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE (to everyone except PF) in every game he played last year. He was the only good thing about Mercer’s opener at Memphis. He was sharp and expectedly productive against Jacksonville. He outplayed last year’s Payton Award Winner on the road (sorry SUDog, but you know it’s true). And, he was spectacular, even with 2 mistakes (trying to do too much), against El Cid, until his injury. All reports from Mercer’s Spring Practice (including the 1 scrimmage FUBeAR watched), indicate he was razor-sharp with no hitches in his delivery. On the contrary, he’s bigger, stronger, and may have even benefited from being a Quasi-QB Coach on the sidelines for 7 games last Fall.

Sorry PF, there is absolutely no SoCon Team with this kind of stable of STUDS at the QB position. There may not be a better group of 3 QB’s in FCS. Again, barring another catastrophic season of QB injuries, QB is, BY FAR, the least of Mercer’s concerns.

Now if you want to talk about Defense or WR’s or Specialists, many, many, many more question marks for the Bears in those areas.

Focus, PF, you’ll hit the mark as long as you don’t try too hard.

gofurman
July 10th, 2019, 10:58 PM
I don't deny IN ANY WAY Mercer has the deepest stable of quality QBs in the conference. the quality of QB depth is scary. honestly wouldn't be surprised if one transferred as they are all young

FUBeAR
July 10th, 2019, 11:13 PM
I don't deny IN ANY WAY Mercer has the deepest stable of quality QBs in the conference. the quality of QB depth is scary. honestly wouldn't be surprised if one transferred as they are all young
Nah...not for a while...prolly...

Riddle is THE MAN. He ain’t transferring unless he does the Grad Transfer thing to FBS his 5th year (2021 or depending on his studies, possibly 2020 & 2021)...which would suck.

IMO, Riley is deeply entrenched as a STUDENT Athlete at Mercer and loves it there. I suppose he, too, might consider transferring for his 5th year in 2020 or hanging up his helmet after 2019, but he’s a positive, happy young man who seems to love contributing to his Team, whatever that role is. Really a gem of a Teammate, from my perspective.

Fromm is a hometown product. Hopefully, he redshirts in 2019, understudies for Riddle in 2020, maybe in 2021...and is the BMOC in 2022 & 2023. Maybe his TE Twin Brother gets lost in the shuffle at Auburn & ends up reuniting with his bro for a couple of banner years as Double-Barrel Hometown Heroes in 5 Star Stadium.

Regardless, barring injuries, the QB scene in Maconga is all rainbows & unicorns right now.

PaladinFan
July 11th, 2019, 05:26 AM
Again, not saying Riddle isn't impressive. He may be incredible in 2019. I would also agree that QB is not a "problem" for Mercer (though I never said it was).

The general point I am making is that there's no real need to panic if they don't have a 4th-year junior playing QB this season. A number of teams are going to rely on young/inexperienced QBs. Of course, last season, neither of the All Socon QBs made the postseason, so having a top-flight QB isn't a panacea.

In my opinion, the concern with young QBs isn't talent so much as developing the intangibles - decision making, ball security, game management.

FUBeAR
July 11th, 2019, 05:35 AM
The general point I am making is that there's no real need to panic if they don't have a 4th-year junior playing QB this season. A number of teams are going to rely on young/inexperienced QBs. Of course, last season, neither of the All Socon QBs made the postseason, so having a top-flight QB isn't a panacea.

In my opinion, the concern with young QBs isn't talent so much as developing the intangibles - decision making, ball security, game management.
See...you can do it. Exactly. Very well stated.

PaladinNation
July 11th, 2019, 06:54 AM
moving this along —

Concerning Furman's quarterback situation. Grainger had some fumbles at inopportune times I believe in all four games he played.
CCH in his post-game comments last season didn't sweep that under the rug. I think Furman goes with the guy that gives the coaches the most confidence in his ball control ability at the start of the season.

The spring game turned out to be a controlled practice and drill session — so I walked around and watched a few positions drill — focus on QB, RB, and OL. From my untrained POV, the coaches were really working the QBs on ball handling, both Grainger and Sisson were comfortable and didn't have any errant pitches. Still — it wouldn't surprise me if Sisson isn't the game one starter.

Back to Grainger — Grainger appears to be working hard in the offseason to get better - he's working with Ramon Robinson as a private one-on-one coach.

I agree with FuBear Mercer is loaded and can crow about a deep QB bench. I'm curious how Furman will handle Shiflett — he transferred from MTSU because he wanted a shot at QB. Furman has three - make that four very young QBs — Grainger, Sisson, Shiflett, and Hardin. If one rises to the top — do they all stay or do we see them on the field elsewhere???

gofurman
July 11th, 2019, 09:29 AM
moving this along —

Concerning Furman's quarterback situation. Grainger had some fumbles at inopportune times I believe in all four games he played.
CCH in his post-game comments last season didn't sweep that under the rug. I think Furman goes with the guy that gives the coaches the most confidence in his ball control ability at the start of the season.

The spring game turned out to be a controlled practice and drill session — so I walked around and watched a few positions drill — focus on QB, RB, and OL. From my untrained POV, the coaches were really working the QBs on ball handling, both Grainger and Sisson were comfortable and didn't have any errant pitches. Still — it wouldn't surprise me if Sisson isn't the game one starter.

Back to Grainger — Grainger appears to be working hard in the offseason to get better - he's working with Ramon Robinson as a private one-on-one coach.

I agree with FuBear Mercer is loaded and can crow about a deep QB bench. I'm curious how Furman will handle Shiflett — he transferred from MTSU because he wanted a shot at QB. Furman has three - make that four very young QBs — Grainger, Sisson, Shiflett, and Hardin. If one rises to the top — do they all stay or do we see them on the field elsewhere???

Agree that when 3 QBs are Sophomore /R-FR I wouldn't be shocked to see one transfer or see if one would play WR? Grainger was ok playing WR in HS but it appears Shiflett wants a real try at QB ... Hope we can keep them

PaladinFan
July 11th, 2019, 10:06 AM
moving this along —

Concerning Furman's quarterback situation. Grainger had some fumbles at inopportune times I believe in all four games he played.
CCH in his post-game comments last season didn't sweep that under the rug. I think Furman goes with the guy that gives the coaches the most confidence in his ball control ability at the start of the season.

The spring game turned out to be a controlled practice and drill session — so I walked around and watched a few positions drill — focus on QB, RB, and OL. From my untrained POV, the coaches were really working the QBs on ball handling, both Grainger and Sisson were comfortable and didn't have any errant pitches. Still — it wouldn't surprise me if Sisson isn't the game one starter.

Back to Grainger — Grainger appears to be working hard in the offseason to get better - he's working with Ramon Robinson as a private one-on-one coach.

I agree with FuBear Mercer is loaded and can crow about a deep QB bench. I'm curious how Furman will handle Shiflett — he transferred from MTSU because he wanted a shot at QB. Furman has three - make that four very young QBs — Grainger, Sisson, Shiflett, and Hardin. If one rises to the top — do they all stay or do we see them on the field elsewhere???

I'm not a QB coach, but some of what I saw with Grainger is how he carries the football.

Grainger is tall (6'4). When he throws, he utilizes a long delivery much like a baseball pitcher might. He will often bring the ball well down below his waist to deliver arm speed. He also tends to use just one point of contact while running (the proverbial "carrying the ball like a loaf of bread"). You can get away with this in high school when your superior athleticism can make up for minor mistakes in technique. Harder to do it in division 1 football when every defender is taught to get the ball out of your hands.

Just a comparison with some loose video on google with Tyrie Adams, who at 6'2 180 might be the closest physical comp to Grainger in the SoCon.

Here's a highlight film of Adams (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtXFE1N4o6E). When he's setting up to throw, the ball is high (up by his neck). He doesn't utilize a long windup, but a quick delivery (an infielder's delivery as opposed to a pitcher's). When moving out of the pocket, the ball stays high. When he decides to run, the ball comes into the chest and arm with three points of contact preparing for a hit. That decision is made instantly - going to run, tuck the ball.

Now look at Grainger's high school film (https://www.hudl.com/video/3/4722301/59f930331600c718d4839fa9). Just on the first play on that video, he holds the ball in front of his chest, not up by his ear (like Adams). When he delivers it, he drops his arm down where the ball is by his thigh. On the second play, Grainger has to scramble and immediately drops the ball into one hand as he avoids defenders. From this spot, it takes virtually no force for a defender to jar that ball out. On that play, Grainger doesn't actually tuck the ball until he's probably 15 yards downfield.

The good news is that these are correctable things. Keeping the ball higher and shortening the delivery will help get the ball out quicker. Not dropping the ball down and having three points of contact when running will limit a defender's ability to simply swat the ball out of his hands (which is what happened on his crippling fumbles against Elon and Samford). Really, those habits are probably the result of being a superior athlete playing a new position in a not-terribly-sophisticated high school offense. He got away with stuff at that level based on athletic ability that aren't going to fly at this level.

PaladinFan
July 11th, 2019, 10:11 AM
Agree that when 3 QBs are Sophomore /R-FR I wouldn't be shocked to see one transfer or see if one would play WR? Grainger was ok playing WR in HS but it appears Shiflett wants a real try at QB ... Hope we can keep them

Shiflett was recruited to Furman to play QB before going to MTSU. Frankly, if he's not in the QB mix at either MTSU or Furman, being a D1 QB might not be in his future.

What remains to be seen, I think, is whether one of these QBs separates themselves in preseason practice. If so, does the other (Shiflett or Grainger) get moved off of QB? Both are phenomenal athletes with backgrounds as WRs.

PaladinNation
July 11th, 2019, 11:15 AM
Shiflett was a 3 star QB, broke his ankle early in his senior year. He's a very good running QB. It wouldn't surprise me no matter how the QB battle shakes out Shiflett could be a wildcat QB. He's 6-2 weighs over 200 and runs a 4.5. Looking at his film my guess is he's not as polished a passer as Sisson nor has the big arm of Grainger. But his high school numbers are — 5,000 passing yards for 52 touchdowns and 2,000 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.

By the way — Furman again is coming out of the recruiting gate strong with four commitments as of today. The big get so far is Evan DiMaggio of Buford HS, had 11 FBS offers. I bring this up because Furman and the rest of the SoCon have to continue to raise the bar in recruiting to get deeper in the playoffs. I think we're seeing many SoCon teams starting to build very good depth.

PaladinFan
July 11th, 2019, 12:45 PM
Shiflett was a 3 star QB, broke his ankle early in his senior year. He's a very good running QB. It wouldn't surprise me no matter how the QB battle shakes out Shiflett could be a wildcat QB. He's 6-2 weighs over 200 and runs a 4.5. Looking at his film my guess is he's not as polished a passer as Sisson nor has the big arm of Grainger. But his high school numbers are — 5,000 passing yards for 52 touchdowns and 2,000 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.

By the way — Furman again is coming out of the recruiting gate strong with four commitments as of today. The big get so far is Evan DiMaggio of Buford HS, had 11 FBS offers. I bring this up because Furman and the rest of the SoCon have to continue to raise the bar in recruiting to get deeper in the playoffs. I think we're seeing many SoCon teams starting to build very good depth.

In Furman's offense, you don't need to be able to hit a flea off a dog's back at 30 yards.

Hit the open man. Don't throw it to the other team.

You don't need to be Joe Montana to pull off these throws:

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/906597742452944896

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1051175761091018752

Reign of Terrier
July 11th, 2019, 01:21 PM
Wofford will retire Eric Breitenstein's #7 this year

PaladinFan
July 11th, 2019, 02:23 PM
Wofford will retire Eric Breitenstein's #7 this year

Hoss.

gofurman
July 11th, 2019, 08:40 PM
Wofford will retire Eric Breitenstein's #7 this year

Dude was a killa'. Absolutely

SPeaking of that has Furman retired FB Jerome Felton? NFL player of 8 years or so .. all-SoCon.. all-daggum-everything. He was an ALL-PRO !!!

Bisonoline
July 11th, 2019, 10:44 PM
That boy was a stud. Loved watching him play.

PaladinFan
July 12th, 2019, 12:36 PM
Furman just updated some of their roster for the pre-season.

There's no sense in going player by player (not because I'm not interested, but most of you don't care), but the renovation of the roster under Clay Hendrix has been pretty astounding. No more apparent than in the defensive front.

If you go back to the end of the Bruce Fowler era, Furman had virtually no linebacker depth. Most of the guys recruited as linebackers arrived on campus undersized - they were maybe 190-200 lbs and were usually called to play immediately. Those guys that had some size were often moved to DE.

Most of the linebacking corps upon Hendrix's arrival were guys initially recruited to play defensive back. They were good ball players, but spent most of their first few years as both undersized and playing out of position.

Furman is recruiting linebackers hard every year under Hendrix. There are 7 or 8 inside linebackers on the roster right now in the 6'2/6'3 225-230 range, and the Paladins just got commits this week from two more.

These are the type players Furman used to recruit in their "defense never rests" days 15 years ago (William Freeman, Mike Killian, Ced Ritter, Will Bouton).

Been impressive to see Furman go from virtually zero linebacker depth in 2017 to probably three deep in 2019. I think there's only one senior (Donovan Perryman) in that group. Maybe they don't all pan out, but there's a lot more to be hopeful about that there was a couple of years back.

gofurman
July 12th, 2019, 01:06 PM
yep. it appears to be changing. takes about 5/6 years for a coach to get all his guys in the system. That's why it is honestly impressive Hendrix got in the playoffs in his first year at Furman (and won a playoff game at Elon) - 2017. And then we won the SoCon last year in only his second year at Furman !!!

Hendrix year one (2017) - playoffs ! (playing with inherited players)
Hendrix year two (2018) - SoCon co-champs ! (playing with inherited players)
year 3? (still mostly inherited players though some of a mix now)


Even if we don't do as much this year the future looks very bright if we can keep Hendrix long-term. That's what it is really about.

PaladinFan
July 12th, 2019, 03:04 PM
yep. it appears to be changing. takes about 5/6 years for a coach to get all his guys in the system. That's why it is honestly impressive Hendrix got in the playoffs in his first year at Furman (and won a playoff game at Elon) - 2017. And then we won the SoCon last year in only his second year at Furman !!!

Hendrix year one (2017) - playoffs ! (playing with inherited players)
Hendrix year two (2018) - SoCon co-champs ! (playing with inherited players)
year 3? (still mostly inherited players though some of a mix now)


Even if we don't do as much this year the future looks very bright if we can keep Hendrix long-term. That's what it is really about.

The roster is not mostly inherited.

Furman had large roster turnover the first two seasons of Hendrix's tenure with players either graduating, transferring, or dropping off for whatever reason. I would guess right now fewer than 25% of the roster are Fowler recruits. The roster mostly belongs to the current coaching staff.

FUBeAR
July 12th, 2019, 06:26 PM
The roster is not mostly inherited.

Furman had large roster turnover the first two seasons of Hendrix's tenure with players either graduating, transferring, or dropping off for whatever reason. I would guess right now fewer than 25% of the roster are Fowler recruits. The roster mostly belongs to the current coaching staff.
Yeah...I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn’t be that hard to cipher up the numbers on this.

I got 22 of 99 were here before Coach Hendrix & more than a few of those 22 are not regular (not Starters, back-ups, or known contributors on Special Teams) players.

Yep - the 2019 Football Paladins ARE Coach Hendrix and Staff’s Team.

PaladinFan
July 12th, 2019, 09:31 PM
Yeah...I was thinking the same thing. Wouldn’t be that hard to cipher up the numbers on this.

I got 22 of 99 were here before Coach Hendrix & more than a few of those 22 are not regular (not Starters, back-ups, or known contributors on Special Teams) players.

Yep - the 2019 Football Paladins ARE Coach Hendrix and Staff’s Team.


Fowler's recruits, I think, would be seniors and redshirt juniors. I count 23 of those on the roster. Of that group, at least two transferred in (Nate Kyei-Donkor and Amir Trapp), so that brings the number to 21.

So, 21 of 90 or so would be approximately 23% of the roster.

It is a little unique for a 3rd-year coach I think to have that much roster turnover during that time, but the roster is overwhelmingly Hendrix recruits.

FUBeAR
July 12th, 2019, 10:03 PM
Fowler's recruits, I think, would be seniors and redshirt juniors. I count 23 of those on the roster. Of that group, at least two transferred in (Nate Kyei-Donkor and Amir Trapp), so that brings the number to 21.

So, 21 of 90 or so would be approximately 23% of the roster.

It is a little unique for a 3rd-year coach I think to have that much roster turnover during that time, but the roster is overwhelmingly Hendrix recruits.
Why you always gotta question the Football Message Board stylings of FUBeAR?

You failed to recognize the classification of Jack Hardin as a R-SO, when he actually is / should be a R-JR https://furmanpaladins.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=1772

So...the correct number is 22 of 99 (no “or so” required) is 22.22%...we can round that to 22% of the roster.

FINAL ANSWER...


Hold on...even though the bio SAYS he redshirted for the Paladins in 2016...because it’s actually JaYLON HardEn’s bio https://furmanpaladins.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=1771, the ‘real’ JaCK HardIn was playing QB for Fellowship Christian (Roswell, GA) in 2016, as is well-documented in his Twitter feed...so the Classification IS correct and the bio is wrong. You were accidentally correct by being less thorough in your research. Don’t even try to tell me you caught the error in his bio!

So...the correct number is 21 of 99 (no “or so” required) is 21.21%...we can round that to 21% of the roster.

REALLY...THE FINAL ANSWER. :D

gofurman
July 13th, 2019, 01:35 AM
Fowler's recruits, I think, would be seniors and redshirt juniors. I count 23 of those on the roster. Of that group, at least two transferred in (Nate Kyei-Donkor and Amir Trapp), so that brings the number to 21.

So, 21 of 90 or so would be approximately 23% of the roster.

It is a little unique for a 3rd-year coach I think to have that much roster turnover during that time, but the roster is overwhelmingly Hendrix recruits.

You guys do bring a good point on the raw numbers.. I agree. That said let me check the Starters (that's what I am looking at really for now - True Freshman hopefully won't see the field much and same for R-FR). That's more what I mean for THIS year. Hendrix guys are Fr, R-FR, Sophomores, R-Sophomores or Juniors... but all R-JR and Senior and R-SR would not be his (with exception of Trapp and Nate Kyei)

Of 22 starters my guesses (uneducated lol :

Offense:
TE - Jake Walker Junior (CH)
LT - Layton R-JR
G - Kroeber R-JR
C - Neely Junior (CH)
RG - Harris R-JR
RT - Godwin R-SR
SE - DeLuca Junior (CH)
FLK - Gordon SR
QB - ? Shiflett / Sisson / Grainger(CH)
TB - Wynn and Watkins (CH)
RB - Maples R-So (CH)

Defense
DE - Seabrook R-JR
NG - Stokes Junior (CH)
DT - Tibbs Senior
BAN - Hope R-So (CH)
MLB - Perryman Senior
WLB - McKoy Junior (CH)
Spur - Willis Senior
LC - Weems R-Snr
RC - Trapp Senior (CH as transfer)
SS - Clay Junior /or new person (CH)
FS - Okeh Senior

I count 11 guys from Hendrix as probably starting.. now the depth in current second-string is VERY much Hendrix (makes sense, they are younger). Great guys like Taylor Hodge and Gilby and Porter to name a few. ** But for now it's still 50/50 on starters for Hendrix-recruited players vs Fowler-recruited players* - some of whom are great like Godwin and Thomas Gordon and Bo Layton just to name a few

-----
***Another item is that just using Sophomore vs Junior classes --> only 5 sophomores played immediately (actually 4, Shiflett just transferred here) vs 10 or so that did get to Redshirt.. While in Hendrix first year about 11 (now classified as) Juniors had no chance to take a Redshirt and 13 guys are now R-Juniors. So we have 33% of our Sophomores had to play immediately without that REALLY important year of weights and training... but almost 50% of our juniors had to do so.
IE with each year we are able to redshirt more. Point being we are getting there but still building depth. I bet going forward each class more closely resembles the Sophomore class - I hope so and am sure the coaches want to do that. Esp for OL and DL-type hosses where strength/weight really matters.

Plus it's easier to recruit to a winner. We have only proven that the last two years.. I think it's fully CH team in year 5 or so. Say 2021 / 2022. Mostly his team next year. Just my opinion

PaladinNation
July 13th, 2019, 06:32 AM
Concerning Furman's roster - under CCH Furman has proven to be fluid with the lineups - player rotations and personnel groupings appear critical to Furman's schemes.

A slight adjustment to your starting lineup. In the spring Furman tried out Tibbs (6-3 274) at DE. Hodge (CH), Sochovka (CH), London Lewis (CH) all three played at DT. Not a big deal — I guess my point is on both lines - offense and defense in 2019 we'll see a rotation that skews towards a CCH recruit dominated.

One more thing - I think I'm right - Layton, Kroeber, Harris was recruited by Fowler, all three redshirted then CCH came in and they started their careers as redshirt freshmen. BTW… Harris was moved from DT to OG last season.

FUBeAR
July 13th, 2019, 07:22 AM
Layton, Kroeber, Harris was recruited by Fowler, all three redshirted then CCH came in and they started their careers as redshirt freshmen. BTW… Harris was moved from DT to OG last season.
LOL - Trust...they started their careers during their FR year, while Redshirting. Scout Team duty is no joke...basically, taking an a$$-whippin’ every day for 4 months...from August to November, or longer.

Also, back to GF’s post. Would be very surprised to see Jake Walker start at TE vs. ChuckSouth...


18 JAKE WALKER
BIOGRAPHY

2019 — Sustained a knee injury in spring practice and underwent surgery...return date for action is uncertain heading into preseason practice.



He may play in 2019, but ACL (assuming it was ACL, at least) recovery can be extended. That’s the #1 reason why starting Spring Practice as early as possible (as FU has done under Coach Hendrix) pays dividends.

gofurman
July 13th, 2019, 11:16 PM
LOL - Trust...they started their careers during their FR year, while Redshirting. Scout Team duty is no joke...basically, taking an a$$-whippin’ every day for 4 months...from August to November, or longer.

Also, back to GF’s post. Would be very surprised to see Jake Walker start at TE vs. ChuckSouth...


18 JAKE WALKER
BIOGRAPHY

2019 — Sustained a knee injury in spring practice and underwent surgery...return date for action is uncertain heading into preseason practice.



He may play in 2019, but ACL (assuming it was ACL, at least) recovery can be extended. That’s the #1 reason why starting Spring Practice as early as possible (as FU has done under Coach Hendrix) pays dividends.

thanks for the correction on Jake Walker - though I would rather I had been right and he wasn't hurt :(. Hate to hear that. I guess it will be Ryan Miller and ?someone else - either way I still have that as a starting 22 of 11 from CH and 11 from Fowler at this point.

But I know PaladinNation knows his stuff so yeah, maybe it's 12/10 one way or the other. (per his DL notes) Just saying it's a year or two out from fully being coach Hendrix team. BASICALLY 50/50 as to teh STARTERS this year.. T

hen 2020 should be about 18 Hendrix guys and 4 Fowler guys so it really changes next year.. Though those are some STRONG Fowler guys we will lose - Thomas Gordon, Andy Godwin, Willis, Weems etc.

Again though, I was also saying it is clearly easier to recruit to a winner / SoCon Champ so our recruiting hopefully continues to improve ! In year 1, CH could sell Furman - which is great... Then year 2 he could sell Furman + a playoff football team... Then year 3 he could sell Furman + a conference Champion....

gofurman
July 13th, 2019, 11:23 PM
Concerning Furman's roster - under CCH Furman has proven to be fluid with the lineups - player rotations and personnel groupings appear critical to Furman's schemes.

A slight adjustment to your starting lineup. In the spring Furman tried out Tibbs (6-3 274) at DE. Hodge (CH), Sochovka (CH), London Lewis (CH) all three played at DT. Not a big deal — I guess my point is on both lines - offense and defense in 2019 we'll see a rotation that skews towards a CCH recruit dominated.

One more thing - I think I'm right - Layton, Kroeber, Harris was recruited by Fowler, all three redshirted then CCH came in and they started their careers as redshirt freshmen. BTW… Harris was moved from DT to OG last season.

PaladinNation, I agree. Just sayin' we were talking about who RECRUITED them - and, as you say, with the exception of Neely I see the entire starting OL as Fowler Recruits..

Layton, Kroeber, Harris and Godwin were recruited by Fowler. So we can say the Roster is almost 80% CHendrix but unless I am missing my math (very possible) its 50/50 Fowler / Hendrix guys starting. I am mainly focused on the starters at this point.

PaladinNation
July 14th, 2019, 07:50 AM
Sorry — SoCon brothers to talk so much Furman on this thread - it's a slow time for football. As Bear stated — Walker did not play in the spring game. Ryan Miller - who's going to be a great one - plus he's that hybrid TE/WR type - played a good bit. Ben Page (6-3 235) moved to TE in the spring and also played a good bit. Evan Vaughn TE/LS also saw plenty of PT. Furman picked up late Garland Greenway (6-3 235) he played prep ball last year.

Based on social media posts - Walker isn't wearing a brace, I've heard he's on schedule whatever that means. It appears that Bryce McCormick one of Furman's top recruits last season is going to play linebacker and not tight end. That makes me think Walker is going to play next season, not sure if he plays against the Bucs.

Back to the summer being slow for football — would love to hear about how the other SoCon schools are doing in recruiting for 2020. Furman picked up two more commits last night (RB from TX - CB from ATL) bringing Furman's commits to six. One safety, two inside linebackers, one spur, a RB/SB, and a corner.

gofurman
July 14th, 2019, 08:34 AM
agree - would love to hear from other schools about transfers in / injuries or transfers out / spring practice etc. What are some changes for this coming year to my initial post? I know the Citadel has some guys (RB etc) that transferred in ... so did ETSU !! Two nice QBs came in. What other changes are out there?

Reign of Terrier
July 15th, 2019, 07:45 AM
eh, why is this thread so purple

PaladinFan
July 15th, 2019, 12:26 PM
eh, why is this thread so purple

We have more posters and an energized fan base.

Milktruck74
July 15th, 2019, 04:32 PM
I'll pose a question and see where it goes.....Aside from your team (FuBear has to pick just one, ha), Who is your 2019 SoCon Sleeper and who is your 2019 SoCon Flop? You can elaborate...or not...

Milktruck74
July 15th, 2019, 04:33 PM
My sleeper this year is Mercer, I think this may be the year they cross over into playoff teams.....Flop is ETSU. I think they had the perfect storm last season to actually make the playoffs, but they get a dose of reality this season.

FUBeAR
July 15th, 2019, 04:42 PM
I'll pose a question and see where it goes.....Aside from your team (FuBear has to pick just one, ha), Who is your 2019 SoCon Sleeper and who is your 2019 SoCon Flop? You can elaborate...or not...
Sleeper - Mercer (yet again...please!)

Flop - Wofford (because FUBeAR wants it to be so)

JK - if I have to pick a ‘flop,’ I’d go with ETSU, considering they are coming off an unlikely & unexpected Championship season in which they were even more fortunate than Wofford had been in 2017. I think if the order of ETSU’s schedule alone (no other changes) had been different in 2018, they could easily have finished in the Bottom 1/3rd of the DEEP & UBER-Competitive SoCon. If they only get, say, 80% of ‘the breaks’ which they got (and admirably capitalized upon) in 2018, the Bucs will be highly disappointed in their 2019 season.

FUBeAR
July 15th, 2019, 04:44 PM
My sleeper this year is Mercer, I think this may be the year they cross over into playoff teams.....Flop is ETSU. I think they had the perfect storm last season to actually make the playoffs, but they get a dose of reality this season.
Welp...how ‘bout dat! I was typing my response when you posted yours.

Great minds think alike, it is said. :D

Milktruck74
July 15th, 2019, 04:52 PM
Welp...how ‘bout dat! I was typing my response when you posted yours.

Great minds think alike, it is said. :D

I am a Moc above all else. Wife decided to go back to Nursing school (when she got to be older than the profs) at ETSU, 2.0 is dual enrolled at ETSU an looking at Woffy and Furple (along with Elon...but that may make me disown her)... so maybe I change my name to MilkMOCBUCFURPLETERRIERPHOENIXtruck74........and increase my odds....You do make the target really big!!! hahhahaha. Funny, I do appreciate you, but the banter is fun!!!

Milktruck74
July 15th, 2019, 04:55 PM
Welp...how ‘bout dat! I was typing my response when you posted yours.

Great minds think alike, it is said. :D

For MErcer to get in, the SoCon has to get 3 in....probably 4......

FUBeAR
July 15th, 2019, 05:04 PM
For MErcer to get in, the SoCon has to get 3 in....probably 4......
Not if Mercer & Furman tie as SoCon Champions...as FUBeAR is projecting for the 6th consecutive season.

Reign of Terrier
July 15th, 2019, 09:42 PM
I finally got around to looking at other team's schedules, so as for the flop/sleeper it's going to come down to playoff positioning (or lack there of). Some teams are optimally positioned for a playoff spot because of their schedule. Some are not.

Whenever a team rises from the mid-tier in the Socon to the top-tier, they tie for first place first and win it the next year (2015->2016 Citadel, 2013-2014 Chatt) or they rally at the end of one year, make a playoff run, and win it the next year (2010->2011 Georgia Southern 2016->2017 Wofford) or they're stalwartly top tier and just rotate (Honestly, I couldn't tell you who else but Wofford won socon titles between 2010-2012 because there was a lot of ties) or they just rise up and randomly tie for the title amongst the chaos (2013 Furman, possibly 2018 ETSU...we'll see) Looking at this and history, I don't think we have an example of a team coming out of nowhere and winning the Socon outright after being bottom-tier the year before. Gains are usually cumulative. So the odds of these teams winning the conference outright are pretty slim

Western Carolina,
VMI,
Mercer,
Chattanooga,
Samford
the Citadel.


One could argue that Samford doesn't belong on that list, but given how inconsistent they were *and* they lost Hodges/McKnight, I think it's a good spot.

So, my prior going into all this is that Furman, ETSU, and Wofford are more likely to win at least a share of the title than the other teams and probably the most likely to win. Note, that's without evaluating player retention, coaching staff, schedule, etc etc.

The Socon is up for grabs, but if a team is going to win it outright, I think it's going to be one of those three.

Now, let's look at playoff positioning, because I think it's safe to say that most of the conference is going to have at least 2 losses, which will hurt some teams more than others. Some teams, due to scheduling are more likely to get to the 7 D1 win mark and more likely to get some slack, in that they won't need to win the conference to make the playoffs.

Let's take a look at the FCS OOC of the conference (I know some will point to "winnable FBS games" like Georgia State, but unfortunately, something always happens in those games):

Chattanooga:
JMU
JSU
Eastern Illinois

Citadel:
Elon
Towson
Charleston Southern

ETSU:
Austin Peay

Furman:
CSU

Mercer:
Austin Peay
Campbell

Samford:
YSU
Alabama A&M
Tennessee Tech

VMI:
Robert Morris

Wofford:
SC State
Gardner Webb

Western Carolina:
Gardner Webb

So, immediately, it looks like VMI, Western Carolina, Furman, and ETSU are going to need to win the socon (tie or otherwise) to make the playoffs, because they only play one FCS OOC. If Furman can pull of the upset against Georgia State, they'll be in good shape. 12 game years are dicey, because at times the FCS playoff committee hasn't given strong consideration to winning 7 FCS games, if played in a 12 game schedule.

Put another way, these teams are each playing 2 FBS teams, 1 FCS team and 1 D2 team. Those are great ways to maximize revenue, but it's not the best way to maximize a resume for the playoff committee.

In the second category is the teams that play 3 FCS games (and an FBS game): The Citadel, Samford and Chattanooga. This scheduling is high risk/high reward for the Citadel and Chattanooga (Chattanooga plays 5 defending conference champs this year! Wow!) because they both play a very winnable game (Charleston Southern/Eastern Illinois) and two very tough games. For the Citadel/Chattanooga, they have a better chance of snagging at least 2 FCS wins OOC (and if they do, they will be hoisted immediately into the conference championship discussion) than the first group. Samford has a better chance than all of the aforementioned teams to snag 2-3 games OOC because Youngstown State is the strongest one on their schedule and they have not played well since vanquishing Samford/Wofford in 2016.

In the third category are the teams that have kept it simple: Mercer and Wofford, both are playing 2 very winnable OOC teams. Not much more to say than that.


So, with ALL OF THAT IN MIND:

I think Wofford has the best chance of making the playoffs of anyone in the conference, even if they don't win or tie the thing. Being a playoff regular of the last 3 years, and assuming a strong, balanced Socon, finishing 7-4 (5-3) in the socon would place them solidly on the bubble. Just look at New Hampshire. Wofford brings back most of the offense, all of the offensive line, most of the front 7 (whose youth was underrated last year). The secondary will be the key. But, I think it's not crazy to say we'll win 5-6 games on the low end, as our record against Mercer, ETSU, SC State, Gardner Webb, the Citadel, Western Carolina, and VMI is pretty dad gum stellar over the last ~18 years. That's not an argument to say we'll beat any one team or all of them, but I like our chances of winning at least 5 of those 7 (at a minimum)

I don't think ETSU will make the playoffs because they honestly maxed out on their luck last year (Mercer playing their 3rd string QB, Western going into like 5 OT, Furman uncharacteristically blowing a 3 score lead); basically, they played every game on a razor's edge last year and won 8 games. 8 games is not guaranteed to give them a playoff spot if they're playing 12 (ask Chattanooga in 2013) and I have a hard time saying they'll be on the same level, given that they're breaking in a new QB, whereas Wofford, the Citadel, Furman, and Chattanooga will be just as good or better than they were last year. But hey, their experience last year is evidence that stranger things have happened.

I think Mercer won't make the playoffs either. I read they have like 11 new coaches? I don't see that as a recipe for success, given the level of the competition of the conference. Mercer had a great defense and forgettable offense in 2017, then a forgettable defense and great offense (when healthy) in 2018. They play well at home, and maybe that will work for them this year, but I just don't see them standing out. Yes, their schedule is favorable, but they're not good in clutch games.

Samford will have a good shot of making the playoffs if they, like Wofford, can win 5 conference games. I like them to win at least 2 of their OOC FCS, but I don't know what to expect when they play YSU.

I don't know what to expect from either Chattanooga or the Citadel, but they'll be behind an eight ball if they can't win 2 of their 3 FCS games.

I have no hope for VMI making the playoffs. Western Carolina will have some things working against them, but if their defense shows up...look out.

And this brings me to my "Dark Horse," if you want to call it that:

I think Furman will win the Socon. They have a couple question marks, losing their DC and their very efficient QB (which will make a difference in the early going), but they have everything "there" that they need to win: confidence that they can beat anyone in the socon and motivation after being woofed by the playoff committee.

As for the flop; a flop can only come with a reasonable expectation of success and I think VMI, Western, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel, and Chattanooga don't have that expectation, at least in the preseason.

So my flop pick is ETSU

Reign of Terrier
July 15th, 2019, 10:01 PM
The TL;DR version of the above post

My preseason picks:
At the top:
Furman 9-3 (7-1)
Wofford 8-3 (6-2)

In the middle (no order):
Chattanooga
Western Carolina
The Citadel
Samford

Bottom
ETSU
Mercer
VMI

I think Chattanooga is going to ruin the Socon because they're probably going to lose to JSU/JMU but put forth a strong performance in conference play, ultimately finishing in the 7-5/8-4 range. I think the Citadel is in the same boat. I think Samford will be worse than last year, but their record will look shiny, given that they'll plow through at least 2 OOC FCS opponents. I think Western Carolina will do better last year, because their defense was that bad and Adams is that good, but it's not going to be good enough with the schedule they have. I think they finish 5-7 or 6-6, but I like their chances of winning 7+ more than Samford.

I don't see ETSU getting as lucky as they did last year. I'm not saying they're a one-hit wonder, but they were really not great on offense last year, and Herink carried them at times. They somewhat developed a running game, but the top tier teams are great at stopping the run and I just don't see them leaning on a freshman QB to get the job done.

And it'll annoy FU Bear to no end, but I really think Bobby Lamb's time in Macon is going to come to an end. Mercer has talent, they play well at home, but they've only beaten one playoff team in five years of Lamb being at the helm. They're longest winning streak since joining the socon was 11 games. They're breaking in something like 11 new coaches. They had some promising developments on offense at times last season, but they lost their OC to Chattanooga(?).

And, with respect to the VMI folks...I don't think I need to explain the problems with VMI

PaladinFan
July 16th, 2019, 05:07 AM
Sleeper: UTC

The Mocs played well defensively last year. Their offense has some talented pieces, but I thought under Arth were far too predictable. The talent gap on UTC's roster isn't big enough to feed the same two guys every play and not expect defenses to plan for it. They'll miss Isaiah Mack sorely, but should be better than they were last year, a season where they hung around in a lot of low scoring games.

Flop: Wofford

I realize I'm in the minority on this. Wofford loses a lot defensively, including one of the league's best interior players. That will make a difference. The Terriers' offense isn't particularly awe-inducing, so I have reservations about whether their offense will pick up the slack from a defense I expect will take a step back. The Terriers' style tends to create a lot of close games, and I think they'll drop a few this year they would have won in 2018 or 2017.

Reign of Terrier
July 16th, 2019, 08:00 AM
This is a bold prediction, based on tenuous premises given that:

1) Every conference game Wofford played but one was decided by double digits last year

2) Wofford had its best offensive output in the last decade last year, no worse than the third most in its D1 era, while also IIRC being #1 in total/scoring offense/defense in the conference

3) by losing "a lot" defensively, we still bring back 2/3 of the defensive two deep.

4) Wofford's record against its current schedule (since 2009, or going back as many games as possible:

Mercer: 4-0
VMI: 4-0
ETSU: 3-0
Citadel: 9-2
Western Carolina: 8-2
SC State: Haven't played since 2006, but we're on a 5 game winning streak
GW: 4-2
Chattanooga: 6-4
Samford: 4-6
Furman: 6-5

I can only think of one instance in which Wofford finished below .500 in conference play when the conference slate was 8 games, and the likelihood of recreating that level of injuries is pretty small.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Wofford will win at least 5 or 6 games. I put it at near certain we beat VMI, GW, and SC State, with a pretty good chance at beating WCU, ETSU, and Mercer. Normally, Samford scares me, but with a week to prepare and without Hodges/McKnight, I like our chances.


We all say the Socon is up for grabs because we know so many games are close, but the ability to win these close games consistently (or not so closely, if need be) is a talent that only Wofford has consistently demonstrated in the last 3 years or so. At some point, we're going to take a serious step back, but the entire conference outside of Wofford has yet to take a step forward in terms of consistency. For each individual game, it's definitely going to be tough, but over the stretch of the season, betting on Wofford flopping isn't going to be a safe bet.

Milktruck74
July 16th, 2019, 02:03 PM
The Mocs have been getting stronger on D adding depth fit FBS transfers at several key positions. I’ve been screaming for a RB to share the load with Price (he is not the type that can shoulder the entire load), and today I got my wish. It looks like we will get an All American grad transfer out of Albany for next season. That helps and makes me feel much more confident in our ability to score on offense. Last season our O was abysmal and our D was lights out. If we scored 17 or more, we won. Aside from Woffy, we only needed a few points to will all the others. The Woffy game was only 11 point difference, but the score was much closer than the actual game. Again other than that the Mocs are 13 points from being 9-2 last year. So welcome to the Scenic City, Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Reign of Terrier
July 16th, 2019, 02:29 PM
The Mocs have been getting stronger on D adding depth fit FBS transfers at several key positions. I’ve been screaming for a RB to share the load with Price (he is not the type that can shoulder the entire load), and today I got my wish. It looks like we will get an All American grad transfer out of Albany for next season. That helps and makes me feel much more confident in our ability to score on offense. Last season our O was abysmal and our D was lights out. If we scored 17 or more, we won. Aside from Woffy, we only needed a few points to will all the others. The Woffy game was only 11 point difference, but the score was much closer than the actual game. Again other than that the Mocs are 13 points from being 9-2 last year. So welcome to the Scenic City, Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On one hand, the fact that Chattanooga's offense had as much life as an oppossum post-ford 150 impact changed the outcome of a lot of games. On another, Wofford left at 9 points on board of that one, with missed field goals and redzone fumbles

Mocs123
July 16th, 2019, 02:50 PM
Our offense was as bad as I have seen a D1 team be in 2017. In 2018, it started off better, but reverted back to near 2017 the second half of the season. The offensive line was at the heart of the problem but our line issues were not due to a lack of talent and I think Chris Malone will fix our O-line.


There are always a lot of unknowns with a new coach and staff, and there may be growing pains, but I think the Mocs will be a better team with Rusty Wright and his staff vs. Arth.

We have an uphill battle with an insanely challenging schedule, but I am hopeful of a return to the playoffs in 2019.

Catamount87
July 16th, 2019, 02:52 PM
I finally got around to looking at other team's schedules, so as for the flop/sleeper it's going to come down to playoff positioning (or lack there of). Some teams are optimally positioned for a playoff spot because of their schedule. Some are not.

Whenever a team rises from the mid-tier in the Socon to the top-tier, they tie for first place first and win it the next year (2015->2016 Citadel, 2013-2014 Chatt) or they rally at the end of one year, make a playoff run, and win it the next year (2010->2011 Georgia Southern 2016->2017 Wofford) or they're stalwartly top tier and just rotate (Honestly, I couldn't tell you who else but Wofford won socon titles between 2010-2012 because there was a lot of ties) or they just rise up and randomly tie for the title amongst the chaos (2013 Furman, possibly 2018 ETSU...we'll see) Looking at this and history, I don't think we have an example of a team coming out of nowhere and winning the Socon outright after being bottom-tier the year before. Gains are usually cumulative. So the odds of these teams winning the conference outright are pretty slim

Western Carolina,
VMI,
Mercer,
Chattanooga,
Samford
the Citadel.


One could argue that Samford doesn't belong on that list, but given how inconsistent they were *and* they lost Hodges/McKnight, I think it's a good spot.

So, my prior going into all this is that Furman, ETSU, and Wofford are more likely to win at least a share of the title than the other teams and probably the most likely to win. Note, that's without evaluating player retention, coaching staff, schedule, etc etc.

The Socon is up for grabs, but if a team is going to win it outright, I think it's going to be one of those three.

Now, let's look at playoff positioning, because I think it's safe to say that most of the conference is going to have at least 2 losses, which will hurt some teams more than others. Some teams, due to scheduling are more likely to get to the 7 D1 win mark and more likely to get some slack, in that they won't need to win the conference to make the playoffs.

Let's take a look at the FCS OOC of the conference (I know some will point to "winnable FBS games" like Georgia State, but unfortunately, something always happens in those games):

Chattanooga:
JMU
JSU
Eastern Illinois

Citadel:
Elon
Towson
Charleston Southern

ETSU:
Austin Peay

Furman:
CSU

Mercer:
Austin Peay
Campbell

Samford:
YSU
Alabama A&M
Tennessee Tech

VMI:
Robert Morris

Wofford:
SC State
Gardner Webb

Western Carolina:
Gardner Webb

So, immediately, it looks like VMI, Western Carolina, Furman, and ETSU are going to need to win the socon (tie or otherwise) to make the playoffs, because they only play one FCS OOC. If Furman can pull of the upset against Georgia State, they'll be in good shape. 12 game years are dicey, because at times the FCS playoff committee hasn't given strong consideration to winning 7 FCS games, if played in a 12 game schedule.

Put another way, these teams are each playing 2 FBS teams, 1 FCS team and 1 D2 team. Those are great ways to maximize revenue, but it's not the best way to maximize a resume for the playoff committee.

In the second category is the teams that play 3 FCS games (and an FBS game): The Citadel, Samford and Chattanooga. This scheduling is high risk/high reward for the Citadel and Chattanooga (Chattanooga plays 5 defending conference champs this year! Wow!) because they both play a very winnable game (Charleston Southern/Eastern Illinois) and two very tough games. For the Citadel/Chattanooga, they have a better chance of snagging at least 2 FCS wins OOC (and if they do, they will be hoisted immediately into the conference championship discussion) than the first group. Samford has a better chance than all of the aforementioned teams to snag 2-3 games OOC because Youngstown State is the strongest one on their schedule and they have not played well since vanquishing Samford/Wofford in 2016.

In the third category are the teams that have kept it simple: Mercer and Wofford, both are playing 2 very winnable OOC teams. Not much more to say than that.


So, with ALL OF THAT IN MIND:

I think Wofford has the best chance of making the playoffs of anyone in the conference, even if they don't win or tie the thing. Being a playoff regular of the last 3 years, and assuming a strong, balanced Socon, finishing 7-4 (5-3) in the socon would place them solidly on the bubble. Just look at New Hampshire. Wofford brings back most of the offense, all of the offensive line, most of the front 7 (whose youth was underrated last year). The secondary will be the key. But, I think it's not crazy to say we'll win 5-6 games on the low end, as our record against Mercer, ETSU, SC State, Gardner Webb, the Citadel, Western Carolina, and VMI is pretty dad gum stellar over the last ~18 years. That's not an argument to say we'll beat any one team or all of them, but I like our chances of winning at least 5 of those 7 (at a minimum)

I don't think ETSU will make the playoffs because they honestly maxed out on their luck last year (Mercer playing their 3rd string QB, Western going into like 5 OT, Furman uncharacteristically blowing a 3 score lead); basically, they played every game on a razor's edge last year and won 8 games. 8 games is not guaranteed to give them a playoff spot if they're playing 12 (ask Chattanooga in 2013) and I have a hard time saying they'll be on the same level, given that they're breaking in a new QB, whereas Wofford, the Citadel, Furman, and Chattanooga will be just as good or better than they were last year. But hey, their experience last year is evidence that stranger things have happened.

I think Mercer won't make the playoffs either. I read they have like 11 new coaches? I don't see that as a recipe for success, given the level of the competition of the conference. Mercer had a great defense and forgettable offense in 2017, then a forgettable defense and great offense (when healthy) in 2018. They play well at home, and maybe that will work for them this year, but I just don't see them standing out. Yes, their schedule is favorable, but they're not good in clutch games.

Samford will have a good shot of making the playoffs if they, like Wofford, can win 5 conference games. I like them to win at least 2 of their OOC FCS, but I don't know what to expect when they play YSU.

I don't know what to expect from either Chattanooga or the Citadel, but they'll be behind an eight ball if they can't win 2 of their 3 FCS games.

I have no hope for VMI making the playoffs. Western Carolina will have some things working against them, but if their defense shows up...look out.

And this brings me to my "Dark Horse," if you want to call it that:

I think Furman will win the Socon. They have a couple question marks, losing their DC and their very efficient QB (which will make a difference in the early going), but they have everything "there" that they need to win: confidence that they can beat anyone in the socon and motivation after being woofed by the playoff committee.

As for the flop; a flop can only come with a reasonable expectation of success and I think VMI, Western, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel, and Chattanooga don't have that expectation, at least in the preseason.

So my flop pick is ETSU


Nice summary of the SoCon. I think this applies just about every year now. LOL!

SU DOG
July 16th, 2019, 08:02 PM
Samford is very underrated in my homer opinion. There is a lot of talent rerturning, and yes, I'll admit that last season was very disappointing. To place us in the bottom 2 or 3, however, may turn out to be a little extreme. For an example of the underrating that I mentioned, take a look at this prediction for this year's SoCon finish. Other than the Wofford pick, I'm thinking this is laughable:

https://medium.com/@markybillson/2019-southern-conference-football-predictions-5fde80a4e332

FUBeAR
July 16th, 2019, 08:45 PM
The Mocs have been getting stronger on D adding depth fit FBS transfers at several key positions. I’ve been screaming for a RB to share the load with Price (he is not the type that can shoulder the entire load), and today I got my wish. It looks like we will get an All American grad transfer out of Albany for next season. That helps and makes me feel much more confident in our ability to score on offense. Last season our O was abysmal and our D was lights out. If we scored 17 or more, we won. Aside from Woffy, we only needed a few points to will all the others. The Woffy game was only 11 point difference, but the score was much closer than the actual game. Again other than that the Mocs are 13 points from being 9-2 last year. So welcome to the Scenic City, Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Do you think he’s fully recovered from the knee injury that derailed his 2017 season?

His 2018 production appears to be significantly reduced from his 2016 production, when he was 1st Team All CAA & named a 3rd Team STATS All American as a Sophomore.



YEAR
RUSHING
GP
Att
Gain
Loss
Net
Avg
TD
Long
Avg/G


2018
Ibitokun-Hanks
11
161
824
57
767
4.8
4
58
69.7


2017
Ibitokun-Hanks
1
17
69
6
63
3.7
1
12
63.0


2016
Ibitokun-Hanks
11
247
1438
37
1401
5.7
16
65
127.4


2015
Ibitokun-Hanks
11
104
632
23
609
5.9
2
47
55.4

Mocs123
July 16th, 2019, 08:55 PM
It's hard to say if he is fully recovered, but it's not like he had a bad year in 2018. He still had almost 800 yards rushing and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. From what I understand Albany is moving to a more passing oriented offense featuring Vinnie Testaverde Jr. Of course, he may not be the same player pre-injury somepeople recover completely and some people lose a step. We do have Tyrell Price coming back as well, who I think is a pretty good back that played banged up last year. If nothing else, Ibitokun-Hanks will push Price and challenge him for carries both in practice and in games.

FUBeAR
July 17th, 2019, 05:45 AM
Interesting stat of the day:

Since joining the SoCon in 2014, Mercer has lost 25 FCS games. 18 of those 25 (72%) losses have been by a touchdown or less...a single score...a single possession x 18.

OUCH!

* with the extreme depth & competitiveness in the SoCon, other SoCon Teams may have a similar ‘close loss %.’ I might cipher that up later...just for (painful) fun.

PaladinFan
July 17th, 2019, 06:40 AM
This is a bold prediction, based on tenuous premises given that:

1) Every conference game Wofford played but one was decided by double digits last year

2) Wofford had its best offensive output in the last decade last year, no worse than the third most in its D1 era, while also IIRC being #1 in total/scoring offense/defense in the conference

3) by losing "a lot" defensively, we still bring back 2/3 of the defensive two deep.

4) Wofford's record against its current schedule (since 2009, or going back as many games as possible:

Mercer: 4-0
VMI: 4-0
ETSU: 3-0
Citadel: 9-2
Western Carolina: 8-2
SC State: Haven't played since 2006, but we're on a 5 game winning streak
GW: 4-2
Chattanooga: 6-4
Samford: 4-6
Furman: 6-5

I can only think of one instance in which Wofford finished below .500 in conference play when the conference slate was 8 games, and the likelihood of recreating that level of injuries is pretty small.

I think it's a pretty safe bet that Wofford will win at least 5 or 6 games. I put it at near certain we beat VMI, GW, and SC State, with a pretty good chance at beating WCU, ETSU, and Mercer. Normally, Samford scares me, but with a week to prepare and without Hodges/McKnight, I like our chances.


We all say the Socon is up for grabs because we know so many games are close, but the ability to win these close games consistently (or not so closely, if need be) is a talent that only Wofford has consistently demonstrated in the last 3 years or so. At some point, we're going to take a serious step back, but the entire conference outside of Wofford has yet to take a step forward in terms of consistency. For each individual game, it's definitely going to be tough, but over the stretch of the season, betting on Wofford flopping isn't going to be a safe bet.

Truthfully, I am more focused on who they don't return than who they do return. Miles Brown, in particular, is a monumental loss for the Terriers - a guy who anchored the defense for years and who was one of the truly great DLs in recent conference history. He's one of those "makes everyone around him look better" type of players, in my opinion.

I've seen this story play out a bunch in SoCon football over the years - team loses one of their greats (Jerome Felton, Jayson Foster, Armanti Edwards, Eric Breitenstein, Dakota Dozier, etc.) and productivity drops the next year. I think Brown, Mack, Gooden, Hodges, McKnight, etc. are going to fall into this category.

Reign of Terrier
July 17th, 2019, 02:12 PM
Samford is very underrated in my homer opinion. There is a lot of talent rerturning, and yes, I'll admit that last season was very disappointing. To place us in the bottom 2 or 3, however, may turn out to be a little extreme. For an example of the underrating that I mentioned, take a look at this prediction for this year's SoCon finish. Other than the Wofford pick, I'm thinking this is laughable:

https://medium.com/@markybillson/2019-southern-conference-football-predictions-5fde80a4e332

Do not give Marky Billison clicks, the dude is frickin mental. ETSU fans hate him and ETSU is supposedly his "team."

It's also kind of dumb of him to say Wofford is "uncertain" under center with a returning starter at QB coming back

Reign of Terrier
July 17th, 2019, 02:19 PM
Truthfully, I am more focused on who they don't return than who they do return. Miles Brown, in particular, is a monumental loss for the Terriers - a guy who anchored the defense for years and who was one of the truly great DLs in recent conference history. He's one of those "makes everyone around him look better" type of players, in my opinion.

I've seen this story play out a bunch in SoCon football over the years - team loses one of their greats (Jerome Felton, Jayson Foster, Armanti Edwards, Eric Breitenstein, Dakota Dozier, etc.) and productivity drops the next year. I think Brown, Mack, Gooden, Hodges, McKnight, etc. are going to fall into this category.


Well ya see, if you look past the stats, Eric Breitenstein's senior year we were actually terrible on offense. We had 5100 yards of offense, but 2000 came from EB. The first four games of the season we blew up the little sisters of the poor (including an 82-0 game against a D2 opponent), but outside of that and a weird game against App State, we only scored more than 20 like once. We were bad, didn't have a QB, so the subsequent fall out in 2013 was kind of predictable.

Individual players mean a lot to offenses (EB made a below-average Wofford offense an average one), but I don't see the parallel on defense.

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 03:04 PM
Do not give Marky Billison clicks, the dude is frickin mental. ETSU fans hate him and ETSU is supposedly his "team."

It's also kind of dumb of him to say Wofford is "uncertain" under center with a returning starter at QB coming back

yep. I read that summary - anyone who has Citadel and Samford BELOW VMI is just crazy. It can happen but when a team (VMI) has lost 22 consecutive conference games .. to rank VMI 7th out of 9 is just wacky. No way do I see VMI finishing 7th. Maybe they win one or two games.. maybe but they would still FINISH 9th.

Also, this guy seems to hate on the option. The option can work - even if you don't have GSU athletes - if you pass some. Not a smack but Furman killed Wofford last year by running some option-based principles with passes slipped to RBs sneaking out of the backfield. That can definitely work. Pure Triple option? Maybe not. But with some option and a few innovative wrinkles you can go a long way

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 03:16 PM
The TL;DR version of the above post

My preseason picks:
At the top:
Furman 9-3 (7-1)
Wofford 8-3 (6-2)

In the middle (no order):
Chattanooga
Western Carolina
The Citadel
Samford

Bottom
ETSU
Mercer
VMI

I think Chattanooga is going to ruin the Socon because they're probably going to lose to JSU/JMU but put forth a strong performance in conference play, ultimately finishing in the 7-5/8-4 range. I think the Citadel is in the same boat. I think Samford will be worse than last year, but their record will look shiny, given that they'll plow through at least 2 OOC FCS opponents. I think Western Carolina will do better last year, because their defense was that bad and Adams is that good, but it's not going to be good enough with the schedule they have. I think they finish 5-7 or 6-6, but I like their chances of winning 7+ more than Samford.

I don't see ETSU getting as lucky as they did last year. I'm not saying they're a one-hit wonder, but they were really not great on offense last year, and Herink carried them at times. They somewhat developed a running game, but the top tier teams are great at stopping the run and I just don't see them leaning on a freshman QB to get the job done.

And it'll annoy FU Bear to no end, but I really think Bobby Lamb's time in Macon is going to come to an end. Mercer has talent, they play well at home, but they've only beaten one playoff team in five years of Lamb being at the helm. They're longest winning streak since joining the socon was 11 games. They're breaking in something like 11 new coaches. They had some promising developments on offense at times last season, but they lost their OC to Chattanooga(?).

And, with respect to the VMI folks...I don't think I need to explain the problems with VMI


Im a Furman guy and I think we are a year away from what you predict... With a new QB we take some losses this year. I say we are good but would be mildly surprised at a playoff year in 2019. I think 7-5 or 8-4 .. partly because of 2 FBS games :(

Coach Hendrix record:
Year one - 2017 playoffs ! (and a playoff win over Elon)
Year two - 2018 SoCon Champions !
Year three - 2019? (this is the one I could see a step back w new and very young / immature QB)... either an MTSU Sophomore transfer who doesn't know our system or R-FR Grainger who only played one year of HS QB ... man, that's REALLY INEXPERIENCED

2020 and on I think it's great !!! (returning QBs for three years... and it will be mostly all of Hendrix players by now etc.)

Also you have to realize Hendrix did all of this with Fowler's players.
It's just now STARTING to become his players.. but even then Hendrix can recruit better once he can ONLY NOW sell that we are a playoff caliber / SoCon champ team. So we may have better players starting in 3 years or so. That's why I was so impressed he took FOwler's players and changed our fortunes so fast.

That's step ONE - coaching.
Then you recruit better - step TWO. (this is where we are now)
Then you can really recruit better once you can sell a playoff / SoCon champ - this is what we have only been able to do the past recruiting class or so and thus these guys will not hit the field for three or four years (like 2023?).

That said I think Furman is back ... and back to helping the SoCon look better as a Conference by being a contender again. That helps the entire conference !

PaladinFan
July 17th, 2019, 06:54 PM
Im a Furman guy and I think we are a year away from what you predict... With a new QB we take some losses this year. I say we are good but would be mildly surprised at a playoff year in 2019. I think 7-5 or 8-4 .. partly because of 2 FBS games :(

Hendrix - 2017 playoffs ! - 2018 SoCon Champions ! 2019? (this is the one I could see a step back w new QB)...
2020 and on I think it's great!!!!!!!!!!!(returning QB and mostly all of Hendrix players by now etc.)

That said I think Furman is back ... and back to helping the SoCon look better as a Conference by being a contender again. That helps the entire conference !

I'm not in your "2020" boat. Furman will be just fine this year despite having to break in a new starting QB (just like they did the two previous years).

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 07:14 PM
I'm not in your "2020" boat. Furman will be just fine this year despite having to break in a new starting QB (just like they did the two previous years).

I hear you and hope YOU are right xthumbsupx. The difference is those 'new' QBs were Blaze a Senior in his 8th year of being a QB (4 HS and 4 College)... and Harris Roberts in his 8th year of QB (4 HS and 4 as a college backup).

This year it's either Shiflett w 4 years QB experience - 4 of HS QB- since MTSU had him play WR...
Or Grainger w ony two(!) years of QB experience (that's almost unheard of to be so inexperienced) - one year of HS QB and one year as a red-shirt for us last year...
Or Sisson in his 6th year of QB (4 in HS and one for us last year)

That's a BIG difference from Blaze having 8 years and D1 experience and Roberts having 8 years QB experience.

I do wish our schedule was a little different.

W a new QB - that likely would affect the first 5/6 games the most - Would prefer Georgia State be after V Tech so it would be his 3rd game.

Regardless our differing on QB readinesss... I bet we both agree we wish we had VMI and POINT earlier too .. that way our 2019 QB could get more practice before tougher SoCon games

FUBeAR
July 17th, 2019, 07:57 PM
Interesting stat of the day:

Since joining the SoCon in 2014, Mercer has lost 25 FCS games. 18 of those 25 (72%) losses have been by a touchdown (7 pts) or less...a single score...a single possession x 18.

OUCH!

* with the extreme depth & competitiveness in the SoCon, other SoCon Teams may have a similar ‘close loss %.’ I might cipher that up later...just for (painful) fun.

Mercer - 18 of 25 = 72%
Chattanooga 11 of 19 = 58%
Furman - 13 of 26 = 50%
Samford - 8 of 17 = 47%
Wofford - 8 of 17 = 47%
Citadel - 7 of 20 = 35%
VMI - 12 of 41 = 29%
WCU - 6 of 23 = 26%
ETSU - 6 of 25 = 24%

Yep...I knew it was exceptionally painful being a Mercer Fan!

PaladinFan
July 17th, 2019, 08:13 PM
Doin’ the math on this...will edit/add/rank order the Teams as I cipher them up...

Mercer - 18 of 25 = 72%
Furman - 13 of 26 = 50%

I'm not sure this is a productive exercise.

I expect you will find that most teams in the SoCon probably play 4 or 5 one-score games a year.

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 08:16 PM
I'm not in your "2020" boat. Furman will be just fine this year despite having to break in a new starting QB (just like they did the two previous years).

PaladinFan, I hear you and again - I WANT YOU TO BE RIGHT. The only thing I would say is you were on the "It-doesn't-matter-who-the-QB-is-in-Furman's- system" bandwagon and that clearly wasn't quite right as last year proved.

We were a MUCH MUCH better team w Roberts at QB. We may not have to drop it on a dime but there is a difference. At QB - Experience, NOT FUMBLING (that killed us), understanding when to throw it away, extending plays etc. all were keys to Roberts success that the other guys struggled weren't quite ready for. He made us a much better team. And even the pinpoint passes do help - I recall one beautiful play vs WCU he extended and hit a RB on the sideline and the guy then ran for a 50 yard TD> I don't think the other QBs were ready to make that play. Maybe without that play we lose to WCU?

Anyway, hope you are right and we are a great team !

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 08:20 PM
Doin’ the math on this...will edit/add/rank order the Teams as I cipher them up...

Mercer - 18 of 25 = 72%
Chattanooga 11 of 19 = 58%
Furman - 13 of 26 = 50%
Samford - 8 of 17 = 47%
Wofford - 8 of 17 = 47%
Citadel - 7 of 20 = 35%
VMI - 12 of 41 = 29%
WCU - 6 of 23 = 26%

I think that is interesting. I mean statistically that is a HUUUUGE difference. Mercer and Chatt rarely get blown out but VMI and WCU do. Fits the narrative I woulda expected.

FUBeAR
July 17th, 2019, 08:32 PM
I'm not sure this is a productive exercise.

I expect you will find that most teams in the SoCon probably play 4 or 5 one-score games a year.

Wasn’t trying to calculate “played in”...was looking at “lost”

What I found was...

Mercer - 18 of 25 = 72% = 3.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Chattanooga 11 of 19 = 58% = 2.2 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Furman - 13 of 26 = 50% = 2.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Samford - 8 of 17 = 47% = 1.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Wofford - 8 of 17 = 47% = 1.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Citadel - 7 of 20 = 35% = 1.4 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
VMI - 12 of 41 = 29% = 2.4 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
WCU - 6 of 23 = 26% = 1.2 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
ETSU - 6 of 25 = 24% = 1.5 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 4 years

So...FUBeAR’s heart has been broken 6.2 times/yr over the past 5 years! THAT AIN’T RIGHT.

Why my 2 Teams gotta be the leaders in close FCS losses / season??

31 Heartbreaks! I hate Football!

PaladinFan
July 17th, 2019, 08:52 PM
Wasn’t trying to calculate “played in”...was looking at “lost”

What I found was...

Mercer - 18 of 25 = 72% = 3.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Chattanooga 11 of 19 = 58% = 2.2 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Furman - 13 of 26 = 50% = 2.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Samford - 8 of 17 = 47% = 1.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Wofford - 8 of 17 = 47% = 1.6 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
Citadel - 7 of 20 = 35% = 1.4 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
VMI - 12 of 41 = 29% = 2.4 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
WCU - 6 of 23 = 26% = 1.2 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 5 years
ETSU - 6 of 25 = 24% = 1.5 1-score FCS losses/yr over the past 4 years

So...FUBeAR’s heart has been broken 6.2 times/yr over the past 5 years! THAT AIN’T RIGHT.

Why my 2 Teams gotta be the leaders in close FCS losses / season??

31 Heartbreaks! I hate Football!

It probably isn't just "bad luck." In a league with a lot of parity, good teams close out games.

I would be interested to know the numbers for Bobby Lamb's career. He lost some excruciatingly close games at Furman. Games where I assume the "win expectancy" was, at some point, over 80%.

gofurman
July 17th, 2019, 09:01 PM
It probably isn't just "bad luck." In a league with a lot of parity, good teams close out games.

I would be interested to know the numbers for Bobby Lamb's career. He lost some excruciatingly close games at Furman. Games where I assume the "win expectancy" was, at some point, over 80%.

FUBeAR - I hate to do this.. not piling on... but I really would be interested in Furman's "close-loss" numbers with Lamb and Fowler vs. with Hendrix. I don't think it is bad luck. Everyone loses SOME close games,sure. but some coaches lose more of them.

PaladinFan
July 17th, 2019, 09:07 PM
I hear you and hope YOU are right xthumbsupx. The difference is those 'new' QBs were Blaze a Senior in his 8th year of being a QB (4 HS and 4 College)... and Harris Roberts in his 8th year of QB (4 HS and 4 as a college backup).

This year it's either Shiflett w 4 years QB experience - 4 of HS QB- since MTSU had him play WR...
Or Grainger w ony two(!) years of QB experience (that's almost unheard of to be so inexperienced) - one year of HS QB and one year as a red-shirt for us last year...
Or Sisson in his 6th year of QB (4 in HS and one for us last year)

That's a BIG difference from Blaze having 8 years and D1 experience and Roberts having 8 years QB experience.

I do wish our schedule was a little different.

W a new QB - that likely would affect the first 5/6 games the most - Would prefer Georgia State be after V Tech so it would be his 3rd game.

Regardless our differing on QB readinesss... I bet we both agree we wish we had VMI and POINT earlier too .. that way our 2019 QB could get more practice before tougher SoCon games

Yes, but often a 5th year senior isn't an ideal starter in his first action. The last few times Furman started a 5th year senior in his first action, it wasn't pretty (Cody Worley and Dakota Derrick). So, just hanging on as a backup for years doesn't necessarily make one a standout player due to "experience."

Remember, Furman didn't take a QB in this recruiting class and only brought in a transfer after another QB transferred out. In my opinion, the coaching staff is comfortable with who they have.

PaladinFan
July 18th, 2019, 04:42 AM
FUBeAR - I hate to do this.. not piling on... but I really would be interested in Furman's "close-loss" numbers with Lamb and Fowler vs. with Hendrix. I don't think it is bad luck. Everyone loses SOME close games,sure. but some coaches lose more of them.

I anticipate that most SoCon teams play a fair number of one-score games each season. I have not gone team by team, but ETSU, for instance, played 7 one-score games in 2018. Wofford played 8 in 2017. The difference is, for whatever reason, Mercer tends to lose a higher percentage of those type of games.

In my opinion, most close games come down to what you might expect - coaching and execution. Sometimes the ball dinks off the crossbar, but more often than not, the game comes down to who makes the plays or makes fewer mistakes.

To note the difference in the Hendrix and Fowler eras, Mercer makes for a good example. In Fowler's last two seasons (2015, 2016), Furman lost two one-score games to Mercer in large part due to late-game execution.

2015 - Furman was hit with an unsportsmanlike penalty on what should have been a game-winning touchdown only then to miss the kick and lose in OT.
2016 - Furman loses in Macon after surrendering (inexplicably) a 33 yard touchdown pass on a 4th and 10 with approximately :30 left in the game.

The script flipped with Hendrix's arrival.

2017 - Furman wins a one-score game in Greenville after converting four 4th downs and sealing the game with a goal-line interception.
2018 - Furman wins a one-score game in Macon with a 4th quarter game-winning TD and closed the game with a sack on a Mercer come-back attempt.

All four games were incredibly close. In the first two, Mercer made the plays it needed to make. In the latter two, Furman did. Luck really didn't have any part in any of those games - execution did.

FUBeAR
July 18th, 2019, 07:26 PM
I anticipate that most SoCon teams play a fair number of one-score games each season. I have not gone team by team, but ETSU, for instance, played 7 one-score games in 2018. Wofford played 8 in 2017. The difference is, for whatever reason, Mercer tends to lose a higher percentage of those type of games.

In my opinion, most close games come down to what you might expect - coaching and execution. Sometimes the ball dinks off the crossbar, but more often than not, the game comes down to who makes the plays or makes fewer mistakes.

To note the difference in the Hendrix and Fowler eras, Mercer makes for a good example. In Fowler's last two seasons (2015, 2016), Furman lost two one-score games to Mercer in large part due to late-game execution.

2015 - Furman was hit with an unsportsmanlike penalty on what should have been a game-winning touchdown only then to miss the kick and lose in OT.
2016 - Furman loses in Macon after surrendering (inexplicably) a 33 yard touchdown pass on a 4th and 10 with approximately :30 left in the game.

The script flipped with Hendrix's arrival.

2017 - Furman wins a one-score game in Greenville after converting four 4th downs and sealing the game with a goal-line interception.
2018 - Furman wins a one-score game in Macon with a 4th quarter game-winning TD and closed the game with a sack on a Mercer come-back attempt.

All four games were incredibly close. In the first two, Mercer made the plays it needed to make. In the latter two, Furman did. Luck really didn't have any part in any of those games - execution did.
Let’s do the math...since 2014...

VMI is 4-13 (.235) over 17 games (3.4/yr) in 1-score FCS games
Mercer is 10-18 (.357) over 28 games (5.6/yr) in 1-score FCS games
Furman is 8-13 (.381) over 21 games (4.2/yr) in 1-score FCS games
Samford is 7-8 (.467) over 15 games (3.0/yr) in 1-score FCS games
Chattanooga is 9-11 (.450) over 20 games (4.0/yr) in 1-score FCS games
WCU is 6-6 (.500) over 12 games (2.4) in 1-score FCS games
Wofford is 13-8 (.619) over 21 games (4.2/yr) in 1-score FCS games
Citadel is 14-7 (.667) over 21 games (4.2/yr) in 1-score FCS games
ETSU is 11-2 (.846) over 13 games (3.25) in 1-score FCS games (over 4 seasons vs. 5 for all other Teams)

Mercer’s close game stats reminds me of a Shortstop with great range & a wild arm. Gets to more chances (played in about double the avg / expected # of close games) than he should, but has trouble getting the putout (but lost those games at a considerably higher frequency than expected % than any ‘competitive’ Team in the SoCon).

Pretty incredible what ETSU has done...REALLY taken advantage of their opportunities to win, if they were able to stay in the game.

Again, though, the bottom line is: the past 5 years have been rather hard on Ol’ FUBeAR!

gofurman
July 18th, 2019, 09:14 PM
In last TWO years with Hendrix (not a huge sample size I fully admit - 5 years would be better but he has only been here 2 years):

Furman is 5-4 in games decided by 7 points or less since Hendrix arrived in 2017:

2017 Furman 2-3 in close games
Wofford 24 / Furman 23 (Hendrix FIRST game)
Elon 34 / Furman 31 (Hendrix SECOND game)
FURMAN 28/ Mercer 21
Samford 26 / Furman 20
FURMAN 28 / Elon 27

2018 Furman 3 -1 in close games
ETSU 29 / Furman 27
FURMAN 44 / Western 38
FURMAN 16 / Chattanooga 10
FURMAN 35 / Mercer 30

Note the 5-4 Overall and the TREND (which is more important imo) - from 2-3 in close games in 2017.. to 3-1 in close games in just year 2 for Hendrix...

*so Furman with Clay Hendrix at Coach has not been too hard on the FUBeAR as we are 3-1 last year and 5-4 overall - GO FURMAN / go Mercer..

PaladinFan
July 18th, 2019, 09:23 PM
Like in baseball, efficiency rating includes some level of luck. Sometimes weird ("unlucky") things happen. Over five years, though, you probably see figures that are more of a trend than one-offs.

Of course, not all one-score games are created equal. For instance, in 2014 Furman beat Mercer 25-20. Mercer was down 11 with 5:46 in the 4th Quarter when Tyler Ward intercepted Dillon Woodruff and Mercer took over at their own 39. According to a win probability calculator, at that moment Furman's win probability was over 98%. It ended up a one-score game, but it was a one-score game Furman was highly unlikely to lose.

That's a different analysis than, say, Mercer's loss to the Citadel last year. When the Bears took over late in the 3rd Q. after a Citadel TD brought the score differential to 7, Mercer still had roughly an 86% chance of winning. Those are the ones you really want back.

FUBeAR
July 18th, 2019, 09:27 PM
In last TWO years with Hendrix (not a huge sample size I fully admit - 5 years would be better but he has only been here 2 years):

Furman is 5-4 in games decided by 7 points or less since Hendrix arrived in 2017:

2017 Furman 2-3 in close games
Wofford 24 / Furman 23 (Hendrix FIRST game)
Elon 34 / Furman 31 (Hendrix SECOND game)
FURMAN 28/ Mercer 21
Samford 26 / Furman 20
FURMAN 28 / Elon 27

2018 Furman 3 -1 in close games
ETSU 29 / Furman 27
FURMAN 44 / Western 38
FURMAN 16 / Chattanooga 10
FURMAN 35 / Mercer 30

Note the 5-4 Overall and the TREND (which is more important imo) - from 2-3 in close games in 2017.. to 3-1 in close games in just year 2 for Hendrix...

*so Furman with Clay Hendrix at Coach has not been too hard on the FUBeAR as we are 3-1 last year and 5-4 overall - GO FURMAN / go Mercer..
Yeah - that has helped & you can always include 1 game per year that’s gonna be hard on FUBeAR regardless of the score & the outcome...just so happens all 5 of those contests have been the “7 or less” variety...

So, the “Hendrix boost” for FUBeAR mental health purposes has only been 2-1 (.667) last year & 4-4 (.500) overall...which is still certainly better than the .357 (I could have used a .357 after most of those games) and the .381 (actually worse - FU was 3-9 (.250) from 2014-2016) I had endured prior to his arrival

FUBeAR
July 18th, 2019, 09:35 PM
Like in baseball, efficiency rating includes some level of luck. Sometimes weird ("unlucky") things happen. Over five years, though, you probably see figures that are more of a trend than one-offs.

Of course, not all one-score games are created equal. For instance, in 2014 Furman beat Mercer 25-20. Mercer was down 11 with 5:46 in the 4th Quarter when Tyler Ward intercepted Dillon Woodruff and Mercer took over at their own 39. According to a win probability calculator, at that moment Furman's win probability was over 98%. It ended up a one-score game, but it was a one-score game Furman was highly unlikely to lose.

That's a different analysis than, say, Mercer's loss to the Citadel last year. When the Bears took over late in the 3rd Q. after a Citadel TD brought the score differential to 7, Mercer still had roughly an 86% chance of winning. Those are the ones you really want back.I want THIS back from THAT game...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzeiAJKUwAILLM4.jpg

gofurman
July 18th, 2019, 09:56 PM
In last TWO years with Hendrix (not a huge sample size I fully admit - 5 years would be better but he has only been here 2 years):

Furman is 5-4 in games decided by 7 points or less since Hendrix arrived in 2017:

2017 Furman 2-3 in close games
Wofford 24 / Furman 23 (Hendrix FIRST game)
Elon 34 / Furman 31 (Hendrix SECOND game)
FURMAN 28/ Mercer 21
Samford 26 / Furman 20
FURMAN 28 / Elon 27

2018 Furman 3 -1 in close games
ETSU 29 / Furman 27
FURMAN 44 / Western 38
FURMAN 16 / Chattanooga 10
FURMAN 35 / Mercer 30

Note the 5-4 Overall and the TREND (which is more important imo) - from 2-3 in close games in 2017.. to 3-1 in close games in just year 2 for Hendrix...

*so Furman with Clay Hendrix at Coach has not been too hard on the FUBeAR as we are 3-1 last year and 5-4 overall - GO FURMAN / go Mercer..



another trend here is that once past his first two games as a head coach... Hendrix is 5-2 in close games ! nice!

SU DOG
July 20th, 2019, 11:19 PM
Ranking of SoCon Defensive Lines - SoConJohn

https://medium.com/@SoConJohn22/socon-football-2019-ranking-the-defensive-lines-d5e9173cc69e

Milktruck74
July 21st, 2019, 08:08 AM
Ranking of SoCon Defensive Lines - SoConJohn

https://medium.com/@SoConJohn22/socon-football-2019-ranking-the-defensive-lines-d5e9173cc69e


I realize my Mocs graduated some serious talent on the DL, but we aren’t 7 out of 9. Since 2010, the Mocs graduate a seriously talented kid on the DL, people talk about how the loss is going to impact the team, then somebody steps up. It has been a “next man up” system. Maxwell has this team and he will fill Some
Big shoes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

gofurman
July 21st, 2019, 11:21 AM
I suspect Furman will do well in the LB rankings..

As SoCon John (who does a much better job than most!!!) notes - The whole of the SoCon lost a lot of good DL, far more than most years. Usually you probably return 50% of the prior years all-conference performers? This year ONLY Nasir Player returns (Thad Mangum got some awards too I think). SO even w next man up probably not the best year for DL. Interesting to see who steps up.

ALso of note, it's as if the entire conference (making a generalization here) returns a ton of OL but graduated many DL. A little odd how many teams return 4 or 5 of last year's OL ! Might be a higher scoring year for the SoCon with that trend? Experience OL vs many new DL.

One exception is WCU - lost 4 of 5 starting OL and lost 2 of 3 starting DL. Not knowing the western team in any more depth than that .. but that doesn't look good - Tyrie can only do so much if the OL allows pressure

PaladinFan
July 21st, 2019, 07:44 PM
I realize my Mocs graduated some serious talent on the DL, but we aren’t 7 out of 9. Since 2010, the Mocs graduate a seriously talented kid on the DL, people talk about how the loss is going to impact the team, then somebody steps up. It has been a “next man up” system. Maxwell has this team and he will fill Some
Big shoes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

These sorts of assessments are difficult.

For instance, how do you define "defensive line?" Furman's Adrian Hope is the league's best pass rusher who plays on the line of scrimmage and is perhaps the most disruptive defensive player in the league up front. He's classified as a linebacker.

Also, I'm interested to know what the criteria is. For example, much is made of last year's stats for some teams, but then Furman is ranked behind Mercer. Furman was statistically ahead of Mercer in virtually every defensive category last season including rush defense, pass defense, total defense, scoring defense, and sacks (Furman had 15 more sacks than Mercer in 1 fewer game). All of those metrics would suggest that Furman has a superior defensive line.

gofurman
July 21st, 2019, 10:59 PM
These sorts of assessments are difficult.

For instance, how do you define "defensive line?" Furman's Adrian Hope is the league's best pass rusher who plays on the line of scrimmage and is perhaps the most disruptive defensive player in the league up front. He's classified as a linebacker.

Also, I'm interested to know what the criteria is. For example, much is made of last year's stats for some teams, but then Furman is ranked behind Mercer. Furman was statistically ahead of Mercer in virtually every defensive category last season including rush defense, pass defense, total defense, scoring defense, and sacks (Furman had 15 more sacks than Mercer in 1 fewer game). All of those metrics would suggest that Furman has a superior defensive line.

Yep, it's a little hard to work these rankings w a LB like Hope. He creeps up to the DL and creates havoc. But, it's just a DL ranking, and I am sure he will be included in the LB rankings.

I suspect FU will have a top 2 or top 3 LB corps ranking. Hope led ALL OF FCS in sacks even though we only played 10 games ! McKoy is all-conference, etc. Wofford and Citadel were held to 14 pts and 17 points respectively by our front 7 in 2018 - very indicative of our LB strength. You could really see the LB work in those games.

PaladinFan
July 22nd, 2019, 08:02 AM
Yep, it's a little hard to work these rankings w a LB like Hope. He creeps up to the DL and creates havoc. But, it's just a DL ranking, and I am sure he will be included in the LB rankings.

I suspect FU will have a top 2 or top 3 LB corps ranking. Hope led ALL OF FCS in sacks even though we only played 10 games ! McKoy is all-conference, etc. Wofford and Citadel were held to 14 pts and 17 points respectively by our front 7 in 2018 - very indicative of our LB strength. You could really see the LB work in those games.

Hope doesn't "creep up" on the defensive line. He is anchored there and, as best I can tell, has no coverage responsibilities. He's dead red on the offensive backfield nearly every snap.

I frankly think Hope's high sack totals warrant more consideration for Furman's defensive line. Hope gets the headlines, but it is a full team effort to ensure that the opposing offense can't take him out of the game. You need three other guys wrecking havoc to leave a guy like Hope in 1 on 1 situations.

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 11:51 AM
Hope doesn't "creep up" on the defensive line. He is anchored there and, as best I can tell, has no coverage responsibilities. He's dead red on the offensive backfield nearly every snap.

I frankly think Hope's high sack totals warrant more consideration for Furman's defensive line. Hope gets the headlines, but it is a full team effort to ensure that the opposing offense can't take him out of the game. You need three other guys wrecking havoc to leave a guy like Hope in 1 on 1 situations.

Valid point but I can see how SoCOn John lists him not in our DL since our own website lists him as a LB and not a DE. But you have a good point that the DL must be doing their job or Hope wouldn't be free to have 1 on 1 situations. I see what you are saying

I mean, being literal, our DL is TIbbs and Hodge etc... and losing Jaylan Reid I would list us middle-of-the-pack... versus teams like ETSU w Nasir Player who is listed as a DL

It's just a ranking and I suspect our LBs will be ranked very high

PaladinFan
July 22nd, 2019, 12:11 PM
Valid point but I can see how SoCOn John lists him not in our DL since our own website lists him as a LB and not a DE. But you have a good point that the DL must be doing their job or Hope wouldn't be free to have 1 on 1 situations. I see what you are saying

I mean, being literal, our DL is TIbbs and Hodge etc... and losing Jaylan Reid I would list us middle-of-the-pack... versus teams like ETSU w Nasir Player who is listed as a DL

It's just a ranking and I suspect our LBs will be ranked very high

That's why I said that ranking the defensive line's is difficult because becomes a really subjective assessment. It's hard to quantify the impact of some of these players.

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 12:22 PM
And there you go :

2019 SoCon Preseason Polls

Coaches
No. Team (first-place) Points
1) Wofford (7) 63
2) FURMAN (1) 55
3) ETSU (1) 44
4) Chattanooga 40
5) Mercer 34
6) Samford 33
7) The Citadel 22
8) Western Carolina 21
9) VMI 12

Media
No. Team (first-place) Points
1) Wofford (21) 253
2) FURMAN (6) 229
3) ETSU (2) 187
4) Mercer 146
5) Chattanooga 134
6) Samford 125
7) The Citadel 111
8) Western Carolina 88
9) VMI 32

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 12:45 PM
congrats to all players who made the preseason list !

2019 SoCon Preseason Honorees

Preseason Offensive Player of the Year
Tyrie Adams, QB, R-Sr., Western Carolina

Preseason Defensive Player of the Year
Nasir Player, DL, R-Sr., ETSU

First Team Offense
QB Tyrie Adams, R-Sr., Western Carolina
RB Quay Holmes, R-So., ETSU
RB Tyray Devezin, Jr., Mercer
OL Bo Layton, R-Jr., Furman
OL Austin Sanders, R-Sr., Mercer
OL Nick Nixon, Sr., Samford
OL Justus Basinger, Sr., Wofford
OL Michael Ralph, Sr., Wofford
TE Owen Cosenke, Jr., Western Carolina
WR Bryce Nunnelly, Jr., Chattanooga
WR Javeon Lara, Sr., VMI

First Team Defense
DL Joseph Randall II, Sr., The Citadel
DL Jason Maduafokwa, R-Sr., ETSU
DL Nasir Player, R-Sr., ETSU
DL Thad Mangum, Sr., Wofford
LB Willie Eubanks III, Jr., The Citadel
LB Adrian Hope, R-So., Furman
LB Marshall Cooper, Sr., Chattanooga
DB Tyree Robinson, Jr., ETSU
DB Brandon Dowdell, Jr., Chattanooga
DB Jerrell Lawson, R-Jr., Chattanooga
DB A.J. Smith, Jr., VMI
DB Ronald Kent Jr., So., Western Carolina

First Team Specialists
PK Grayson Atkins, Jr., Furman
PK Mitchell Fineran, So., Samford
P Matthew Campbell, So., The Citadel
RS David Durden, So., Mercer

Second Team Offense
QB Reece Udinski, Jr., VMI
RB Devin Wynn, Jr., Furman
RB Tyrell Price, Sr., Chattanooga
OL Haden Haas, R-So., The Citadel
OL Drew McEntyre, Sr., The Citadel
OL Ben Blackmon, R-Sr., ETSU
OL Tre'mond Shorts, R-So., ETSU
OL Andy Godwin, R-Sr., Furman
OL Cole Strange, R-Jr., Chattanooga
OL Blake Jeresaty, Jr., Wofford
TE Chris Ellington, Sr., Mercer
WR Thomas Gordon, Sr., Furman
WR David Durden, So., Mercer

Second Team Defense
DL Dorian Kithcart, R-Sr., Mercer
DL Justin Foster, Sr., Samford
DL Nelson Jordan, So., Samford
DL Mikel Horton, Jr., Wofford
LB Elijah McKoy, Jr., Furman
LB Will Coneway, R-Sr., Mercer
LB Jireh Wilson, Sr., Wofford
DB Jeremy Lewis, Sr., ETSU
DB Malique Fleming, R-Jr., Mercer
DB Mason Alstatt, Sr., Wofford
DB George Gbesee, Sr., Wofford

Second Team Specialists
PK Jacob Godek, Sr., The Citadel
P Luke Carter, Sr., Wofford
RS Rohan Martin, Sr., VMI


Agree / Disagree?

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 12:47 PM
Personally encouraged that my Paladins not only have 7 guys listed but that we have FIVE return next year ! I think that's the most underclassmen on the listing and shows where we are going ... I hope

MR. CHICKEN
July 22nd, 2019, 12:52 PM
.....WOW!....PLAYER UH YR....QB W. CAROLINA.......YET......CAT'S.....NEXT TA LAST.....CONFERENCE PREDICTION..........AWK!

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 01:07 PM
.....WOW!....PLAYER UH YR....QB W. CAROLINA.......YET......CAT'S.....NEXT TA LAST.....CONFERENCE PREDICTION..........AWK!

That's what you get in a TEAM sport - they lost 4 of 5 OL.. and 2 of 3 DL from a team that gave up tons of points already. They are ALWAYS dangerous wtih the QB (who may be an NFL recvr etc) but he doesn't have a ton of help.. especially on D.

OF note is that VMI has the 2nd pre-season QB listed and they are picked LAST. same thing (though Western is far far better) - A one man show can't win in football as we all know. Interesting that the two "best" pre-season QBs are picked to finish 8th and 9th when it comes to the TEAM .

Reign of Terrier
July 22nd, 2019, 01:23 PM
I hate calling out players but I am really unimpressed with Reece Udinski. I do not think he deserves all conference consideration at this point.

kdinva
July 22nd, 2019, 01:51 PM
I hate calling out players but I am really unimpressed with Reece Udinski. I do not think he deserves all conference consideration at this point.

...so, he had fair game in Spartyburg last year.....had fine stats in at least 7 others.......Wofford game stats for Reece:



22-37-0
59.5%
163 yds
1 td, long of
30



They'll be more of the usual bad mouthing of VMI players this week....not my style....

SU DOG
July 22nd, 2019, 01:51 PM
I may be in the minority here, but I wonder if others share my view, or will correct me if I'm wrong. I was planning to watch the SoCon Media Day coverage, but could not take more than a short time viewing it. If our conference is going to have this event(necessary or not isn't the issue), then why not try to have a first-class production. It is so boring, the set is so bland, the in-between time is exhausting, and I could go on and on with other gripes. I think a Samford Student Production group could do far better. We may not want to equal their efforts, but just take a look at last week's Southland(peer conference) event on ESPN. Our deal looks like a silent movie from yesterday in comparison. Again, this is just my opinion, but it's how I feel right now. My vent is over. LOL!

MR. CHICKEN
July 22nd, 2019, 02:07 PM
That's what you get in a TEAM sport - they lost 4 of 5 OL.. and 2 of 3 DL from a team that gave up tons of points already. They are ALWAYS dangerous wtih the QB (who may be an NFL recvr etc) but he doesn't have a ton of help.. especially on D.

OF note is that VMI has the 2nd pre-season QB listed and they are picked LAST. same thing (though Western is far far better) - A one man show can't win in football as we all know. Interesting that the two "best" pre-season QBs are picked to finish 8th and 9th when it comes to the TEAM .

.........HARD TA SEE TYRIE....AS DUH MAN....WHIFF-OUT HELP........EVEN.....ARMANI NEEDED PLENTY.....BACK IN DUH DAY.......AWK!!

Mocs123
July 22nd, 2019, 02:29 PM
Tyrie is scary good at times. He is certainly reminesent of Armani Edwards, but as many have said, WCU doesn't have a whole lot else.

Reece is a decent QB, but I am really surprised that Nick Tiano wasn't in that spot. I think Tiano has turned out to be a really good QB after a disappointing 2017 season.

Reign of Terrier
July 22nd, 2019, 03:01 PM
...so, he had fair game in Spartyburg last year.....had fine stats in at least 7 others.......Wofford game stats for Reece:



22-37-0
59.5%
163 yds
1 td, long of
30



They'll be more of the usual bad mouthing of VMI players this week....not my style....

that's not very impressive.

I mean, I hate being negative, but he's not the most accurate QB. I don't see it.

He threw the ball almost 50 times a game last year, completed less than 60% and averaged less than 280 yards. He was sacked 4 times a game. He only threw 20 Touchdowns, while also throwing 16 interceptions.

the only thing really impressive about his stats i the amount of attempts he has, but none of these stats taken together jump out as all conference. I bring up the sack numbers because, in some cases, players with average passing stats make plays with their feet, but not Udinski.

I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to be all-conference caliber, but I just haven't seen it. He's not good for an air raid system IMO.

It just goes to show how there are so many unknowns at QB in the socon this year that he's the second team pick.

Mocs123
July 22nd, 2019, 03:06 PM
Here is Udinski's stat's compared to Tiano:



PASSING AVG/GAME
Cl
G
Comp-Att-Int
Pct.
Yards
TD
Long
Avg/G














2.
Reece Udinski-VMI
SO
11
301 - 523 - 16
57.6
3066
20
72
278.7


3.
Nick Tiano-UTC
JR
11
233 - 378 - 6
61.6
2699
15
89
245.4

FUBeAR
July 22nd, 2019, 03:08 PM
Our deal looks like a silent movie from yesterdaySo...you’re saying the SoCon fumbled Media Day?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAQnJdOniCk

kdinva
July 22nd, 2019, 03:13 PM
that's not very impressive.

I mean, I hate being negative, but he's not the most accurate QB. I don't see it.

He threw the ball almost 50 times a game last year, completed less than 60% and averaged less than 280 yards. He was sacked 4 times a game. He only threw 20 Touchdowns, while also throwing 16 interceptions.

the only thing really impressive about his stats i the amount of attempts he has, but none of these stats taken together jump out as all conference. I bring up the sack numbers because, in some cases, players with average passing stats make plays with their feet, but not Udinski.

I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to be all-conference caliber, but I just haven't seen it. He's not good for an air raid system IMO.

It just goes to show how there are so many unknowns at QB in the socon this year that he's the second team pick.

VMI's O-Line play and running game both should be better......and with no Thornton at wide out, defenses will even more be spread out..

Let's play the games first, OK?

kdinva
July 22nd, 2019, 03:15 PM
Tyrie is scary good at times. He is certainly reminesent of Armani Edwards, but as many have said, WCU doesn't have a whole lot else.

Reece is a decent QB, but I am really surprised that Nick Tiano wasn't in that spot. I think Tiano has turned out to be a really good QB after a disappointing 2017 season.

I don't think they'll be any BAD quarterbacks this Fall in the SoCon....

Milktruck74
July 22nd, 2019, 03:16 PM
I’m homering.....Maxwell (on D) and Taino (on O) will be there at the end of the season....when it matters!!!!! Book it!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mocs123
July 22nd, 2019, 03:17 PM
VMI was a MUCH better team in 2018 then it was in 2017. In 2017, VMI was not a good football team. I expect VMI will ruin someones week in the SoCon this year, but I still don't think Unduski is a better QB then Tiano.

That being said, the pre-season all conference awards or rankings are really worthless, it's the end of the season where we see who should really be where.

gofurman
July 22nd, 2019, 03:18 PM
I have to say TIano scares me more but, to be fair, he has a better team of talent to work with.

A Furman TE could easily be there at year's end. I think SoConJohn had our TE as second best behind the WCU guy.. we utilize the position a good bit so they get numbers...

FUBeAR
July 22nd, 2019, 03:34 PM
Here is Udinski's stat's compared to Tiano:



PASSING AVG/GAME
Cl
G
Comp-Att-Int
Pct.
Yards
TD
Long
Avg/G














2.
Reece Udinski-VMI
SO
11
301 - 523 - 16
57.6
3066
20
72
278.7


3.
Nick Tiano-UTC
JR
11
233 - 378 - 6
61.6
2699
15
89
245.4



FWIW, Robert Riddle started 2 SoCon games for Mercer last year as a R-FR against good-to-average-quality SoCon Defenses (Samford & CIT). If we project his stats in those 2 games to a full 11 game season, his season stats would have, theoretically, looked something like this...



PASSING AVG/GAME
Cl
G
Comp-Att-Int
Pct.
Yards
TD
Long
Avg/G


1.
Robert Riddle-Mercer
FR
11*
264 - 390 - 11
67.6
3647
22
73
331.5


2.
Reece Udinski-VMI
SO
11
301 - 523 - 16
57.6
3066
20
72
278.7


3.
Nick Tiano-UTC
JR
11
233 - 378 - 6
61.6
2699
15
89
245.4



...just sayin’

gofurman
July 28th, 2019, 11:15 AM
Bump. Since I have been keeping the initial post updated. Please update w who does or DOESNT show up for your camp.

I’ll start. Furman had a freshman QB Not show up. Not a big deal bc he wasn’t in top three depth

Milktruck74
July 28th, 2019, 02:35 PM
The Mocs had 2019 3 star signee Tre Young not show up on the pre camp roster. He signed in February and in April tweeted he was committed to Florida State....so it probably wasn’t a surprise to the staff.


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gofurman
August 4th, 2019, 12:09 AM
any other no-shows or surprises as camp starts?

SU DOG
August 4th, 2019, 01:53 PM
any other no-shows or surprises as camp starts?

Samford seemingly does a good job in retaining players each year. This year is no exception, but other than the usual one year walk-ons we did have one WR to leave for D-2 West Georgia. Kentre'vious Williams, IMO, was an athletic receiver with good size. He appeared in only 4 games last year, and there was to be about 6 or 7 receivers ahead of him, so this is not a devastating loss for the Bulldogs.

There is a late xfer addition that was badly needed at the Safety position, where we were so decimated last season by injury. Lamar Anderson from Ball State will have 2 seasons to play for the Dogs. He started the first 3 games for BSU, but suffered an injury causing him to miss the rest of the 2018 season. Anderson was a first team All-State 3*** rated player, and the #21 prospect in Missouri coming out of HS.

gofurman
August 4th, 2019, 06:05 PM
Samford seemingly does a good job in retaining players each year. This year is no exception, but other than the usual one year walk-ons we did have one WR to leave for D-2 West Georgia. Kentre'vious Williams, IMO, was an athletic receiver with good size. He appeared in only 4 games last year, and there was to be about 6 or 7 receivers ahead of him, so this is not a devastating loss for the Bulldogs.

There is a late xfer addition that was badly needed at the Safety position, where we were so decimated last season by injury. Lamar Anderson from Ball State will have 2 seasons to play for the Dogs. He started the first 3 games for BSU, but suffered an injury causing him to miss the rest of the 2018 season. Anderson was a first team All-State 3*** rated player, and the #21 prospect in Missouri coming out of HS.
SU,
Nice addition at S, i will put that in my initial post (the very first post in thread) - trying to keep up for a good listing of Preseason what each team has

gofurman
August 13th, 2019, 01:41 AM
any more no shows or injuries or ..what's up at the SoCon camps?

BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n
August 13th, 2019, 03:50 PM
How's this one, former Army QB Malik McGue is coming to ETSU per his Twitter feed. https://twitter.com/RM_McGue/status/1161072643866599424

FUBeAR
August 13th, 2019, 05:18 PM
How's this one, former Army QB Malik McGue is coming to ETSU per his Twitter feed. https://twitter.com/RM_McGue/status/1161072643866599424Last season of HS ball was 2014. Now 5 years later and he has 3 years of eligibility remaining. Kid’s gonna be playing as a 30 year old. :)

Very nice pick-up. He will help the Bucs somewhere on the field this year...and for 7-10 years more...prolly.

gofurman
August 13th, 2019, 09:34 PM
How's this one, former Army QB Malik McGue is coming to ETSU per his Twitter feed. https://twitter.com/RM_McGue/status/1161072643866599424

THanks BnG - I'LL add that to the original post (initial post in this thread) where i keep up w each team pre-season and maybe throughout season too.

wcugrad95
August 13th, 2019, 10:49 PM
Just catching up on much of this thread as I hibernated since last football season. Saw some interesting comments about Tyrie - most very positive about how good he is individually, but several saying how he won't be as productive because he needs help. While it is true that WCU loses 4 starters off the O-line, we have some guys who got a fair amount of playing time due to injury. I also feel like with the scheme, we can somewhat mask a little bit of line play (ask FUBeAR what he honestly thought of our O-line the last 2 years).

As for the rest of the offense, we return 2 starters at WR in Mullen (55 catches for 600 yards and 2 TDs) and Patten (39 catches for 567 yards and 5 TDs), have a handful of new WRs who provide size (DJ Thorpe is a RS-SO, Keshaun Abel and Mahari Sterling are both RS FR - all 6'3" or taller), return the preseason all-SoCon TE in Owen Cosenke (23 catches for 261 yards and 8 TDs), and return our top 2 RBs in Connell Young (529 rushing and 331 receiving yards and 5 total TDs) and Donovan Spencer (506 yards rushing and 142 receiving yards and 4 total TDs). We also signed the highest rated RB signee in the SoCon per Hero Sports (#4 overall) with Syheam McQueen. Between the 5 guys listed who had stats last season, that is over 1000 rushing yards, over 1900 receiving yards, 157 total receptions, and 26 TDs scored. And McQueen is the highest-rated RB we have ever signed in the history of the program.

I expect WCU to again have a pretty good offense. Our season will hinge on if some of the defensive guys have gotten better - for the last 3 or 4 weeks of 2018 we had about 1/2 the starters and nearly every guy on the 2nd team listed as either RS or true Freshman. More precisely, it will hinge on our defensive front as we have some pretty talented guys in the backend (Ronald Kent was all-Freshman and was on the Jerry Rice watch list, Michael Murphy had a very good year, Shamon Elliott has 13 career starts and 3 INTs, JerMichael White missed much of last year due to injury but has 11 career starts with 2 INTs and a couple of double-digit tackle games, and John Brannon with 4 career INTs come to mind back there). A pair of LBs with experience return in Ty Harris (105 career tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INTs) and Jarquavious Wortham (19 tackles and 2 sacks last year). We also signed a pair of highly-regarded Freshman D-lineman in Christian Harris (our top-ranked recruit as the #3 SoCon signee per Hero Sports) and Roman Johnson.

Our biggest losses are Jordan Mathis on offense and Nate Link on defense (Link graduated in May and decided not to play as a graduate student). Again, a whole lot of this is based on potential and previous stats, but we also had what Hero Sports ranked as the #1 overall SoCon recruiting class. I am not ready to translate that into "x" wins until I see the team in action, but for the exercise I ***think*** was being asked here, that is a more in-depth look at the Cats.

Hero Sports link: https://herosports.com/fcs/recruiting-2019-football-southern-conference-socon-ajaj

gofurman
August 13th, 2019, 11:33 PM
thanks WCU - that's what I am looking for. Any updates on camp etc ?

FUBeAR
August 13th, 2019, 11:40 PM
ask FUBeAR what he honestly thought of our O-line the last 2 years


And McQueen is the highest-rated RB we have ever signed in the history of the program.

WCU’s O-Line has had excellent size & has been VERY experienced the past 2 years...and...

Melvin Dorsey would like a word with your History Professor...

Here are the Top RB’s from the 1979 National 100 by Dr. Charles Holland, who was a football analyst and computer scientist.


1. Eric Dickerson, RB, 6-3, 205, Sealy (Texas) - SMU
2. Roger Craig, RB, 6-2, 202, Davenport (Ia.) – Nebraska
3. Jimmy Smith, RB, 6-0, 190, Kankakee (Il.) – Purdue
4. Mike Cade, RB, 6-1, 205, Eloy (Az.) – Michigan
5. Vincent White, RB, 5-8, 175, Denver (Co.) – Stanford
6. Craig James, RB, 6-1, 210, Houston (Texas) – SMU
7. Stanley Wilson, RB, 6-1, 195, Los Angeles (Calif.) – Oklahoma
8. Buford McGee, RB, 6-1, 180, Durant (Ms.) – Ole Miss
9. Weldon Ledbetter, RB, 6-3, 210, Clayton (Mo.) – Oklahoma
10. Johnny Hector, RB, 5-11, 180, New Iberia (La.) – Texas A&M
11. Rob Moore, FB, 6-2, 217, Santa An (Calif.) – Stanford
12. Curt Warner, RB, 6-1, 180, Pineville (WV) – Penn State
13. Cyrus Lawrence, RB, 5-10, 200, South Hampton (Va.) – Virginia Tech (VPI then)
14. Shelby Gamble, RB, 6-0, 195, South Haven (Mi.) – Boston College
15. Melvin Dorsey, RB, 6-0, 180, Atlanta (Ga.) – Georgia (Transferred to WCU)


Also...help me out here. I recently listened to the 12 hour-long (felt like it was 12 hours) “WCU Football Preseason Special” on Facebook. Did I hear Coach Speir correctly that WCU very well may start 2 TRUE Freshman at Center & OG?

https://i.giphy.com/media/whNR9ooimS5iw/giphy.gif

wcugrad95
August 14th, 2019, 07:20 AM
McQueen = signee
Dorsey = transfer

I am not saying McQueen is the best RB we will ever have (as recently as 2 years ago we had a school record-setting RB) since he hasn’t played a down yet and was recruited as much for defense as offense. But in the modern era (with “stars” and such) I believe he is the most highly touted high school signee we have had at the RB position.

And I think the topic of the thread is around what teams have coming back and impact freshman/transfers. So that is where I concentrated. No doubt we need some O-lineman and our Defensive front to step up.

BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n
August 14th, 2019, 12:24 PM
Last season of HS ball was 2014. Now 5 years later and he has 3 years of eligibility remaining. Kid’s gonna be playing as a 30 year old. :)

Very nice pick-up. He will help the Bucs somewhere on the field this year...and for 7-10 years more...prolly.

Since he graduated from Science Hill in 2014, he started for the football team at USMA Prep School before landing at West Point. Saw some action in 2016 but was held out in 2017 (academic eligibility). He left West Point after that season and rumored to land at Wofford but that did not happen.

https://goarmywestpoint.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8770

http://jcweb.libercus.net/Football/2018/01/25/McGue-leaves-Army-program

I'm sure Sanders will put him to good use.

walliver
August 14th, 2019, 12:46 PM
Since he graduated from Science Hill in 2014, he started for the football team at USMA Prep School before landing at West Point. Saw some action in 2016 but was held out in 2017 (academic eligibility). He left West Point after that season and rumored to land at Wofford but that did not happen.

https://goarmywestpoint.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8770

http://jcweb.libercus.net/Football/2018/01/25/McGue-leaves-Army-program

I'm sure Sanders will put him to good use.
Where was he in 2018?

Milktruck74
August 14th, 2019, 01:08 PM
Probably Northeast State getting his grades up to speed.


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gofurman
August 14th, 2019, 09:12 PM
Home school getting his grades... JK

gofurman
August 18th, 2019, 10:47 PM
bump - added ETSU starting to hone in on their starting QB as Chance Thrasher, a graduate transfer from Coastal Carolina, has moved to the forefront in the competition to become the Bucs’ new signal caller.

let me know of updates for other teams. I keep the initial post updated

gofurman
August 26th, 2019, 09:48 PM
bump - update Wofford loses 2 of 3 starting DL for opener at SC State.. I'll update details in the initial post where I am tracking everything.

One is hurt - Horton all conference ; other is maybe just a one game loss for team violation

gofurman
August 28th, 2019, 07:13 AM
looking forward to everyone's two deep inSoCon - if you could post them here that would be great !

here is Furman: page 5 -
https://furmanpaladins.com/documents/20 ... maries.pdf (https://furmanpaladins.com/documents/2019/8/27/2019_Furman_Game_Notes_Career_Summaries.pdf)

Mocs123
August 28th, 2019, 07:28 AM
310603106131062

Mocs123
August 28th, 2019, 07:37 AM
Of note on offense: Although all five of last years starters return, only three are listed as starting against EIU. McClendon Curtis (6-8 325) replaces Chris Barnes (6-3 295) at RG (Barnes is listed as the 2nd team LT). Second Team All SoCon Center Noah Ramsey (6-3 295) is listed as the second team while Kyle Miskelley (6-1 300) is listed as the starter. Also of note: While Tyrell Price being the starter at RB isn't surprising, I expected Elijah Ibitokun-Hanks (All American transfer from Albany) to be listed as the 2nd team, instead it's true freshman Ailym Ford.

On Defense no real surprises but it appears we'll play a 3-3-5,

gofurman
August 28th, 2019, 07:58 AM
310603106131062

thanks Mocs ! -but I tried to click the link and it said invalid attachment? possible you have 3 attachments all together there?

Mocs123
August 28th, 2019, 08:27 AM
https://gomocs.com/sports/2019/8/26/2019-football-media-center.aspx

walliver
August 28th, 2019, 09:55 AM
It seems that it is now "next year", so maybe the thread needs to be renamed. On the other hand, it has probably run its course and will fade into history.

gofurman
August 28th, 2019, 10:34 AM
It seems that it is now "next year", so maybe the thread needs to be renamed. On the other hand, it has probably run its course and will fade into history.

Agree, I will start a thread you are all welcome to ignore. Same initial post w notes on each team as they progress through year.

BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n
August 28th, 2019, 05:23 PM
bump - added ETSU starting to hone in on their starting QB as Chance Thrasher, a graduate transfer from Coastal Carolina, has moved to the forefront in the competition to become the Bucs’ new signal caller.

let me know of updates for other teams. I keep the initial post updated

confirmed: http://www.etsubucs.com/football/news/2019-20/16361/sanders-tabs-thrasher-bucs-starting-quarterback/