The final bubble of 2018

[Professor Chaos]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.

[katss07]

My Last 4 In: Elon, SEMO, Furman, Lamar

My First 2 Out: Northern Iowa, Incarnate Word

[BisonTru]

I'd swap ETSU with Northern Iowa.

IMO, after today's games UNI has solidified their spot and ETSU played their way out of the field.

[Professor Chaos]

I'd swap ETSU with Northern Iowa.

IMO, after today's games UNI has solidified their spot and ETSU played their way out of the field.
While I don't disagree that ETSU is on shaky ground I think at 8-3 as a SOCON co-champ you can't leave them out with as weak as the bubble is this year.

[POD Knows]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.I am good with this but I think Lamar has an outside chance of getting in, I think Lamar would probably bitch slap SEMO but it is close. UNI might get dropped even though I think they are the best of the 4 you have listed.

[PaladinFan]

While I don't disagree that ETSU is on shaky ground I think at 8-3 as a SOCON co-champ you can't leave them out with as weak as the bubble is this year.

Hard to know what to do with ETSU. 8-3 is an impressive season and usually good enough to get in.

With a weak bubble, though, I think you'd have a hard time passing up an 8 win SoCon champ over a second OVC or Southland team.

[Drblankstare]

I don’t see UNI getting in, the bubble is weird this year, but my gut says that the Valley isn’t getting rewarded with a 4th

[Drblankstare]

Also a quick note to Prof Chaos. Great job all year, always good stuff. I would rep you but Im told I have to spread it around. xthumbsupx

[FUGameBreaker]

http://nobowls.com/

http://nobowls.com/images/final.png

[WestCoastAggie]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.

From your bubble list, I like Elon, Furman, Northern Iowa and Rhode Island.

[FargoBison]

No bubble team can touch the quality of win that UNI has over SDSU. If they aren't in the field it is because of politics.

SEMO doesn't belong but the committee loves them some JSU so they'll probably inflate that win, just like they will inflate how good KSU is.

[RabidRabbit]

I don’t see UNI getting in, the bubble is weird this year, but my gut says that the Valley isn’t getting rewarded with a 4thUNI ended up tied with IN St at 5-3 in MVFC standings and UNI holds tiebreaker as beat #2 SDSU, whereas IN ST lost to SDSU. UNI ISUb didn't play. So, I'd guess both in, or both out. If uni makes field, round two will ship them to Brookings, as SDSU is a drive, but NDSU is a flight.

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[TheKingpin28]

UNI ended up tied with IN St at 5-3 in MVFC standings and UNI holds tiebreaker as beat #2 SDSU, whereas IN ST lost to SDSU. UNI ISUb didn't play. So, I'd guess both in, or both out. If uni makes field, round two will ship them to Brookings, as SDSU is a drive, but NDSU is a flight.

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UNI beat ISUb?

[Catbooster]

No bubble team can touch the quality of win that UNI has over SDSU. If they aren't in the field it is because of politics.

SEMO doesn't belong but the committee loves them some JSU so they'll probably inflate that win, just like they will inflate how good KSU is.

You're probably right that SDSU is the best win on the bubble, but UNI also has arguably some worse losses than other bubble teams.

[RabidRabbit]

UNI beat ISUb?UNI did not play Indiana state.

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[FUGameBreaker]

No bubble team can touch the quality of win that UNI has over SDSU. If they aren't in the field it is because of politics.

SEMO doesn't belong but the committee loves them some JSU so they'll probably inflate that win, just like they will inflate how good KSU is.



Furman has the second best win over Wofford

UNI has a worse loss than furman, youngstown st

Plus UNI lost 5 games

[Professor Chaos]

You're probably right that SDSU is the best win on the bubble, but UNI also has arguably some worse losses than other bubble teams.
UNI's bad losses (Montana and YSU) don't hold a candle to SEMO's bad losses (EKU and Murray St) IMO. If SEMO is in I don't see how UNI can't be in before them.

[BisonTru]

The way the bubble is working out it’s looking really easy to see the committee reward teams winning this final weekend and punishing those that finished on a loss.

They’ve used finishing string as part of their criteria. That’s part of the reason I don’t see ETSU making it in.


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[FargoBison]

To me the bubble is simple....UIW gets punished because they cancelled a game for an illegitmate reason and Lamar has some ugly loses with nothing of quality to balance them out. Outside of those teams there isn't really anything left to even talk about.

Furman, UNI and SEMO get in.

[BisonTru]

No bubble team can touch the quality of win that UNI has over SDSU. If they aren't in the field it is because of politics.

SEMO doesn't belong but the committee loves them some JSU so they'll probably inflate that win, just like they will inflate how good KSU is.

I agree with this. I have UIW and SEMO in only because of politics. I don’t believe they are in the top 22 teams but it’s sexy to give those conferences a second team.


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[FUGameBreaker]

The way the bubble is working out it’s looking really easy to see the committee reward teams winning this final weekend and punishing those that finished on a loss.

They’ve used finishing string as part of their criteria. That’s part of the reason I don’t see ETSU making it in.


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Fair point, especially if a team lost last 2 games or 3 of last 4 something like that

[Professor Chaos]

UNI did not play Indiana state.

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Yeah they did... beat them 33-0 in Terre Haute... one of the main reasons why I think UNI is in. The MVFC team that Indiana St missed was NDSU (which is worthy of note - a MVFC schedule without NDSU is much different from the conference schedule that the rest of the MVFC teams played).

[FUGameBreaker]

To me the bubble is simple....UIW gets punished because they cancelled a game for an illegitmate reason and Lamar has some ugly loses with nothing of quality to balance them out. Outside of those teams there isn't really anything left to even talk about.

Furman, UNI and SEMO get in.

UIW would be wise to just want that payday anyways as they are very unlikely to win a playoff game

[TheKingpin28]

UNI did not play Indiana state.

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Yes they did.

https://www.google.com/search?q=uni+vs+indiana+state+football+2018&oq=uni+vs+indiana+state+football+2018&aqs=chrome..69i57.9291j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[ST_Lawson]

UNI did not play Indiana state.

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This didn't happen?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401030099

[Reign of Terrier]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.
I think with the relative strength of the listed bubble teams, you have to take out Rhode Island and Monmouth. Monmouth lacks a quality win. Rhode Island won't get in.

I think Northern Iowa, SEMO, Furman, and Elon get in basically because they have the most impressive wins out of this bunch.

[kalm]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.

Flat out nailed it. Great work PC!

[Reign of Terrier]

So it seems that the consensus is that Furman, Elon, UNI, and SEMO *should* get in as the last 4 in because of their quality wins. The only reason I could see that not being the case is if either Lamar or Incarnate Word sneaks in. I could not tell you how likely that would be, but if it happens it's because of committee politics and the fact that those two teams are somewhat hot right now.

[PaladinFan]

So it seems that the consensus is that Furman, Elon, UNI, and SEMO *should* get in as the last 4 in because of their quality wins. The only reason I could see that not being the case is if either Lamar or Incarnate Word sneaks in. I could not tell you how likely that would be, but if it happens it's because of committee politics and the fact that those two teams are somewhat hot right now.

I would argue that neither is hotter than Furman. Six wins in seven games and a conference title is pretty hot.

[dewey]

UNI did not play Indiana state.

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UNI beat Indiana State 33-0 on September 27th.

Edit. I didnt realize it had been already covered by numerous posts.

Dewey

[FUGameBreaker]

Furman checks all the boxes

6-3 when you take out the Clemson FBS game

A good win over a really good and highly ranked Wofford team

Worst loss was to 6-5 Samford so no bad losses

Won 6 of last 7

And you can't hold the hurricane canceled game against this group that was out of everyone's control


Cheers xthumbsupx

[BisonFan02]

If Indiana State is likely in.....so is UNI.

[Derby City Duke]

The committee can be flaky at times, so somtimes it's like throwing darts in the dark...

SEMO
Lamar
Furman
UNI

are the last 4 in; loss of the W&M game deprived Elon of a probable win given how both teams were playing at that point in the season -- and they've lost 3 of 5 now.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I have Stony Brook, Lamar, Monmouth, UNI as my last 4 in

https://www.college-sports-journal.com/fcs-playoffs-til-i-die-final-2018-playoff-prediction/

I'm not sure SEMO's at-large resume is as shaky as the others. What is shaky as hell is Stony Brook blowing their final game vs. Albany.

[HAL_9000]

If Indiana State is likely in.....so is UNI.

I was leaning towards ISUb getting a bubble bid. However, upon further inspection, ISU has no wins over teams with winning records and as we know has just six FCS wins.

UNI has the #1 SOS, same amount of FCS wins, an Impressive beat down of SDSU and completely dominated ISUb shutting them out. Both teams are 5-3 in Valley play.

Honestly, I know ISUb earned it but my judgement if there is a third bid coming the Valley's way it goes to UNI.

Sorry Trees.

[Go...gate]

Furman checks all the boxes

6-3 when you take out the Clemson FBS game

A good win over a really good and highly ranked Wofford team

Worst loss was to 6-5 Samford so no bad losses

Won 6 of last 7

And you can't hold the hurricane canceled game against this group that was out of everyone's control

Cheers xthumbsupx

Agreed.

[Catatonic]

I agree with this. I have UIW and SEMO in only because of politics. I don’t believe they are in the top 22 teams but it’s sexy to give those conferences a second team.


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I’d go with Lamar over UIW. I look at Lamar’s early season bad losses the same way grad admissions committees often look at an applicant’s bad grades during his freshman year balanced against a strong junior and senior year. Once Lamar found the right QB, they have cut through the SLC schedule like a knife through room temperature butter. Lamar finished with a 6 game winning streak, including W’s over UIW and a ranked (coaches Poll) McNeese. I know. I know. The coaches poll is terrible....but it’s the poll the selection committee uses.

[Catatonic]

I would argue that neither is hotter than Furman. Six wins in seven games and a conference title is pretty hot.

If the committee favors “hot” teams, both Furman and Lamar (six game win streak) get in. Elon staggered to the finish line, so they are out in the hot team scenario.

[MacThor]

No bubble team can touch the quality of win that UNI has over SDSU. If they aren't in the field it is because of politics.

Elon won at JMU, and doesn't have a bad loss (though Towson was an ugly loss).

[katss07]

If the committee favors “hot” teams, both Furman and Lamar (six game win streak) get in. Elon staggered to the finish line, so they are out in the hot team scenario.
I really hope Lamar gets in! I’d love to see them get crushed by Nicholls in round 2!

[clenz]

UNI did not play Indiana state.

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[FCS_pwns_FBS]

So, (assuming Chatty doesn't pull an improbable comeback at South Carolina) as far as I can tell there's about 18 teams with arguments for the 14 at-large bids. There are how I see them stacking up going into Selection Sunday.

First the autos (at least I think these are the autos): Weber St (Big Sky), Kennesaw St (Big South), Maine (CAA), North Dakota St (MVFC), Duquesne (NEC), Jacksonville St (OVC), Colgate (Patriot), San Diego (Pioneer), Wofford (SOCON), and Nicholls (Southland)

At large locks
EWU (9-2)
UC Davis (9-2)
South Dakota State (8-2)
James Madison (8-3)

Likely in
ETSU (8-3)
Towson (7-4)
Delaware (7-4)
Stony Brook (7-4)
Indiana St (7-4)
Montana St (7-4)

Bubble (4 spots left)
SEMO (8-3)
Monmouth (8-3)
Lamar (7-4)
Elon (6-4)
Furman (6-4)
Incarnate Word (6-4)
Northern Iowa (6-5)
Rhode Island (6-5)


Do you agree with how I've pooled the teams? Regardless, who do you see as the bubble teams that are the last to get in and the first out?

For those last 4 spots I see them as Elon, Furman, UNI, and SEMO in that order.

IMO, SEMO is in, and UNI is too (committee will show MVFC respect). After those two teams I think you have to take Furman and the last team in will be Monmouth.

Elon's late-season skid will keep them out.